UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik

Big Brady picks Oleinik as an underdog, believing he can get the fight to the ground and secure a submission. He notes that Lewis has poor takedown defense and often rests on the ground, which could be dangerous against a submission specialist like Oleinik. However, he acknowledges Lewis's explosive power and ability to pop up from bottom, making this a tough call. He leans Oleinik by submission in the first round.

Daniel Levi picks Derrick Lewis to win by knockout. He notes that Lewis has a tendency to lose the first two rounds but then come back with his signature 'black beast blitz' and knock out his opponent. He also mentions that Oleinik has a 7-10 minute window to get a submission, but if he doesn't, Lewis will likely finish him. Levi acknowledges that Oleinik is dangerous on the ground but believes Lewis's power is a different level.

Lewis has freakish power and can knock anyone out, but Oleinik is a dangerous submission artist who can get the fight to the ground. Lewis has shown the ability to get back to his feet, but Oleinik's jiu-jitsu is elite. The line at -265 is too wide; Oleinik offers value. Lewis likely wins by first-round KO, but it's not a bet.

The MMA Guru picks Aleksei Oleinik to win by first-round submission via rear naked choke. He criticizes the oddsmakers for making Lewis such a big favorite, citing Lewis's close fights against Ivanov and Latifi. He believes Oleinik's grappling will be too much for Lewis, who loads up on big shots and leaves himself open for takedowns. He notes that Oleinik has a reach advantage and will transition from position to position, eventually taking Lewis's back.

Big Brady picks Weidman despite his recent losing streak, citing advantages in wrestling, submission game, and reach. He believes Weidman can take Akhmedov down and avoid a brawl, using a smart game plan similar to Stephen Thompson's. However, he is concerned about Weidman's durability and history of getting knocked out. He predicts a decision win for Weidman.

Daniel Levi picks Omari Akhmedov to win, possibly by left hook knockout. He argues that Chris Weidman is 'damaged goods' with five knockout losses in his last six fights, and that Akhmedov has underrated power and durability. Levi dismisses the narrative that Akhmedov gasses in the third round, noting that at middleweight he has shown better cardio and even wobbled Ian Heinisch in the third. He also points out that Weidman's chin is suspect and that Akhmedov's wrestling and pressure will be too much.

Weidman's chin is a major concern after multiple KO losses, and Akhmedov has power even if he lacks finishes on his record. Akhmedov's wrestling is solid and he has cardio to push the pace. Weidman has advantages in striking and size, but if he gets hit, he could go down. Akhmedov by KO in the second round is the pick, but it's a risky bet.

The MMA Guru picks Chris Weidman to win by second-round submission via arm triangle. He notes that Omari Akhmedov has a gas tank problem and slows down dramatically, while Weidman has five-round experience and a five-inch reach advantage. He believes Weidman can take Akhmedov down, drain his power, and finish him in the second round. He worries about Weidman's chin but thinks Akhmedov won't have a chance to land cleanly.

Big Brady picks Pitolo as an underdog, believing his volume striking and improved cardio at 185 will be key. He notes Stewart's power but thinks Pitolo can outwork him and possibly get a knockout, as Stewart has never been knocked out. He predicts a second-round knockout for Pitolo.

Daniel Levi picks Maki Pitolo to win, citing that Pitolo is a different fighter at 185 pounds compared to 170, where he had brutal weight cuts. He notes Pitolo's improved durability, volume striking, and wrestling, and believes he is the better fighter across the board. Levi acknowledges the risk of Stewart's knockout power but thinks Pitolo can avoid it and win a decision or finish.

Stewart is the better striker with more power and technical kicking. Pitolo may try to grapple, but his takedowns are not as good as Stewart's previous opponents. Stewart's cardio is a question, but Pitolo has also gassed in the past. The fight likely ends inside the distance, but the line at -160 is a bit steep. Stewart by TKO in the second or third round.

The MMA Guru picks Darren Stewart because he is too big, strong, and dangerous in the clinch. He notes that Pitolo has dangerous body shots in the clinch, but Stewart has nasty elbows there. He expects Stewart to crack Pitolo with an elbow and win by unanimous decision, possibly a TKO.

Big Brady picks Kunitskaya but is not confident enough to bet her. He believes she is the better striker and can win by staying off the ground, but worries she might take Stoliarenko down, which plays into Stoliarenko's submission game. He compares it to the Balbina vs Jojua fight where a similar mistake led to a loss. He predicts a decision win for Kunitskaya.

Daniel Levi picks Julija Stoliarenko to win by submission, specifically an armbar. He acknowledges that Yana Kunitskaya is the better fighter overall but believes she is prone to getting submitted, as seen in her past fights. Levi notes that Stoliarenko is an armbar specialist with many first-round finishes, and he expects her to pull guard and secure the submission at some point during the fight.

Kunitskaya is technically superior with good kickboxing and range control. However, she struggles in the pocket and can be pressured. Stoliarenko is a brawler with devastating elbows and a dangerous armbar from the clinch. The line at -235 is too wide; Stoliarenko offers value at +200. Kunitskaya likely wins by decision if she keeps it at range, but Stoliarenko could finish.

The MMA Guru picks Yana Kunitskaya because she has good clinch control and can hold opponents against the cage, as seen in her fight with Aspen Ladd. He notes that Julija Stoliarenko is taking the fight on short notice and went to a split decision against a lesser opponent. He believes Kunitskaya's clinch work will be the difference.

Big Brady picks Dariush, citing his overall talent and ability to take the fight to the ground. He notes Holtzman's power and durability as concerns but believes Dariush can avoid getting knocked out and secure a decision or submission. He predicts a decision win for Dariush.

Daniel Levi picks Beneil Dariush to win, but with caution. He notes that Dariush is the more skilled fighter with a serious black belt in jiu-jitsu and good striking, but he has a questionable chin and gets rocked in almost every fight. Levi believes Dariush's grappling advantage will be key, especially if he can take Holtzman's back. He also mentions that Holtzman is live if he can survive the first round and land a big shot, but ultimately leans with Dariush.

Holtzman has quicker hands and better in-and-out movement, and he can crack Dariush's chin. Dariush's striking defense is suspect, and he needs to get the fight to the ground to win. Holtzman's pressure and countering opportunities could lead to a KO. However, the under 2.5 rounds is the best bet as both have finishing ability.

The MMA Guru picks Beneil Dariush to win by submission in the later rounds. He notes that Scott Holtzman is tough but lacks finishing ability, while Dariush has a history of winning fights even when losing early. He expects Holtzman to win the first round, but Dariush to take over in the third and secure a submission.

Big Brady picks Staropoli, believing Means is on the decline after losses to Nico Price and Daniel Rodriguez. He notes Staropoli's high volume striking and questions Means' chin and motivation. He predicts a decision win for Staropoli, though a knockout is possible.

Daniel Levi leans with Laureano Staropoli, citing that Tim Means has a suspect chin and has been knocked out in recent fights. He notes that Staropoli is durable, as seen in his fight against Muslim Salikhov where he ate heavy shots. Levi acknowledges that Means is dangerous early with his dirty boxing and elbows, but believes Staropoli's durability and ability to weather the storm will allow him to win, possibly by decision or late finish.

Means is the better technical fighter with advantages in the clinch and jiu-jitsu. He is the bigger guy with a reach advantage. However, his durability is a concern after recent KO losses. Staropoli is a volume striker but lacks power. Means likely wins by decision if his chin holds up, but it's risky to bet on his durability.

The MMA Guru picks Laureano Staropoli because he showed a good chin and gas tank in his last fight against Muslim Salikhov, coming back in the third round. He notes that Tim Means has had several KO losses recently and is at the end of his career. He also mentions that Staropoli has been in camp due to cancelled fights, so he should be prepared.

Big Brady picks Holland despite the high price, citing his length, reach, and athleticism. He notes Buckley's power but believes Holland's chin and ground game (if used) will be decisive. He predicts a third-round knockout for Holland.

Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland to win, stating that Holland is more skilled across the board, with better jiu-jitsu, length, and experience. He notes that Joaquin Buckley looks intimidating but is slower and not as skilled at the UFC level. Levi believes Holland can win however he wants as long as he doesn't get caught with a big shot.

Hacparast is a striker with power and good footwork, but his takedown defense is a question against Munoz's wrestling. Munoz has power and wrestling from Team Alpha Male, but as a UFC debutant, there's uncertainty. The under 2.5 rounds is appealing because both have finishing ability and the fight could become a slugfest. Hacparast likely wins by KO in the second round.

Big Brady picks Sanchez as an underdog, believing his wrestling and takedown defense will neutralize Turman's ground game. He notes Sanchez's higher striking volume and experience. He predicts a decision win for Sanchez.

Daniel Levi leans with Wellington Turman, but acknowledges it could go either way. He notes that Turman is young, hungry, and has shown improvement, while Sanchez has questions about his chin and cardio. Levi believes Turman's aggression and youth might edge out a split decision, but he is not confident due to Sanchez's wrestling and durability.

Sanchez's wrestling should be able to take Turman down and control him, as Turman's takedown defense is not as strong as Marvin Vettori's. Sanchez showed improved cardio in his last fight, but his past cardio issues are a concern. He should avoid submissions from Turman and grind out a decision, though the third round could be dangerous if he gasses.

The MMA Guru picks Andrew Sanchez in a tough 50/50 fight. He notes that Wellington Turman hasn't done anything dominantly, while Sanchez has beaten decent opponents and is the bigger guy with a reach advantage. He expects Sanchez to wear Turman down over three rounds and win a unanimous decision.

Big Brady picks Jaynes but with caution due to his weight cut to featherweight. He likes Jaynes' power and finishing ability, noting Tucker's poor striking defense. He predicts a first-round knockout for Jaynes, but will wait for weigh-ins before betting.

Daniel Levi picks Gavin Tucker, but with low confidence. He notes that Tucker is the cleaner fighter with good footwork and a black belt in jiu-jitsu, but his chin and tendency to stop fighting under adversity are concerns. Levi also mentions that Justin Jaynes has power but is sloppy and may gas out if he doesn't get a first-round knockout. He believes Tucker will win a close decision if he doesn't get caught.

Tucker is a black belt under Henzo Gracie with high-level jiu-jitsu and striking. Jaynes is a power puncher with limited skills, and Tucker's leg kicks and movement should neutralize him. The smaller UFC Apex cage still gives Tucker room to stick and move. Tucker likely wins by submission in the second or third round as Jaynes fades.

The MMA Guru picks Justin Jaynes because he is the bigger fighter, having fought at lightweight, and is cutting back down to featherweight. He notes that Gavin Tucker hasn't fought since UFC 240 and is 34 years old, which is bad time off. He believes Tucker may have found his ceiling after losing to Rick Glenn, while Jaynes is riding momentum from a first-round TKO over Frank Camacho.

Big Brady picks Zalal confidently, citing advantages everywhere: striking, grappling, and age. He notes Barrett's poor submission defense and tendency to get into bad positions. He predicts a first-round submission for Zalal.

Daniel Levi picks Youssef Zalal to win by decision. He notes that Zalal is more well-rounded and has him outgunned anywhere the fight takes place. Levi believes Barrett's only chance is to turn it into a brawl, but if Zalal fights patiently and mixes his strikes with takedowns, he should win easily. He also mentions that Barrett takes a lot of damage in his fights.

Zalal has better jiu-jitsu, more aggression, and a point-fighting style that should outwork Barrett. He does well getting out of bad positions and has cardio advantage. Barrett's safe approach may prevent a finish, so Zalal likely wins by decision. The line at -325 is a bit wide, so a parlay is suggested over a straight bet.

The MMA Guru picks Youssef Zalal because he was impressed with Zalal's performance against Jordan Griffin, where he stuffed takedowns and didn't give up control time. He notes that Zalal is younger and evolving rapidly, while Barrett is 33 and coming off a long layoff. He believes Zalal is the better striker and will keep his momentum going.

Big Brady picks AlQaisi as an underdog, believing his wrestling and takedowns will be the difference. He notes Rivera's poor takedown defense and lack of offense off his back. He predicts a decision win for AlQaisi.

Daniel Levi picks Irwin Rivera to win by decision. He notes that Rivera is the better striker with dynamic ability, including a liver kick and flying knees, and that AlQaisi is stiff on the feet. Levi acknowledges that AlQaisi has a path to victory with wrestling and guillotine attempts, but believes Rivera's takedown defense and scrambling have improved. He also mentions that Rivera trains with the Burns brothers in Florida.

Rivera trains at Sanford MMA with high-level partners and has fought legitimate competition, while AlQaisi is a UFC debutant with questionable opposition. Rivera's takedown defense improved after the first round against Sabatello, and he should be able to avoid submissions. The under 2.5 rounds at +160 is appealing due to both fighters' finishing rates.

The MMA Guru picks Ali AlQaisi because he believes AlQaisi has faced tougher competition to build his record compared to Rivera. He notes that AlQaisi's first two losses were early in his career and he has since gone 9-1, while Rivera's losses are more spaced out. He worries about AlQaisi coming in on short notice and his gas tank, but still expects him to get the job done by decision.