UFC 208: Holm vs. de Randamie · Feb 11, 2017 · Women's Featherweight · Completed
UFC 208: Holm vs. de Randamie Next Fight
Age 42
Height 5' 9"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 44
Height 5' 8"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Germaine de Randamie
2.57 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
2.0 SApM
65.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
65.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Holly Holm
3.13 SLpM
40.0% Str. Acc.
2.92 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.87 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
76.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Germaine de Randamie - Fight History
LOSS vs Norma Dumont
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Norma Dumont 0 11 of 29 37% 49 of 76 6 of 8 75% 0 0 10:04
Germaine de Randamie 0 16 of 33 48% 91 of 126 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Norma Dumont 0 0 of 5 0% 15 of 22 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:49
Germaine de Randamie 0 3 of 4 75% 23 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Norma Dumont 0 8 of 18 44% 28 of 41 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:44
Germaine de Randamie 0 9 of 20 45% 32 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:12
3 Norma Dumont 0 3 of 6 50% 6 of 13 3 of 3 100% 0 0 4:31
Germaine de Randamie 0 4 of 9 44% 36 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Norma Dumont 11 of 29 37% 6 of 21 5 of 7 0 of 1 4 of 20 5 of 6 2 of 3
Germaine de Randamie 16 of 33 48% 7 of 21 7 of 8 2 of 4 8 of 24 8 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Norma Dumont 0 of 5 0% 0 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1
Germaine de Randamie 3 of 4 75% 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Norma Dumont 8 of 18 44% 3 of 12 5 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 10 5 of 6 2 of 2
Germaine de Randamie 9 of 20 45% 4 of 14 5 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 11 8 of 9 0 of 0
3 Norma Dumont 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Germaine de Randamie 4 of 9 44% 3 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Germaine de Randamie vs. Norma Dumont
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dumont (-175), de Randamie (+145)

Round 1
For the first time in years, Dumont (10-2, 6-2 UFC) successfully made the bantamweight limit, hitting the scales at 136 pounds. In her return to the division still maintained by the organization, she draws former featherweight champ de Randamie (10-4, 7-2 UFC), who is coming back after nearly a four-year layoff. The victor could be right in the title picture, and they have the next 15 minutes or less to make their case. Referee Keith Peterson will keep things on the up-and-up and not allow any nonsense in the Apex, and the bout starts with a sporting clap of hands. De Randamie leads off with a front kick up the middle, and she follows it with a low kick after Dumont misses with a right up top. Dumont whiffs on a leg kick, and de Randamie steps in and spins her around with a thudding calf kick. Dumont flicks out a jab, and she catches a leg kick and tackles de Randamie down to the ground. De Randamie hits her back and threatens with a heel hook, but the Brazilian is quick to push past it and climb into the half guard. Dumont keeps de Randamie pressed flat on her back, and de Randamie tries to scoot her way towards the fence to sit up. The Dutchwoman regains full guard and closes it, and Dumont tries to break out of it with a short burst of ground-and-pound. Dumont leans one side to pursue an arm-triangle choke, but the leverage is not right and she bails on it. Dumont keeps smothering without landing any offense, and de Randamie shrugs and looks to Peterson to do something. Peterson asks for more activity from the Brazilian, and she stands up and tries to pass guard but is stopped from getting anywhere while lowering herself down. Dumont steps over at the same time that de Randamie explodes back to her feet, and she dumps de Randamie down to the ground to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dumont
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Dumont
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dumont

Round 2
The ladies clap hands to get things started, and de Randamie follows it with a jab. Dumont sits down on a big right hand, and she shoots in for a takedown. De Randamie stands her up and pops her with a jab, and when she looks to come after it with an overhand right, Dumont shoots in on her hips. The Dutchwoman again thwarts the takedown, and she turns Dumont towards the wall and starts landing short knees to the thigh and body. Dumont gives her one back before attempting to turn and throw her, but she bails when de Randamie keeps her balance. De Randamie finds the midsection with a few knees, and Dumont keeps a knee shield up to defend from a few more of them. De Randamie opens up with two clean right hands that make Dumont turn around, and Dumont gets away with a fence grab to turn herself in a more advantageous position. De Randamie keeps working the body with knees, and Dumont’s efforts to free herself or turn the tables largely fall short. Dumont does manage to put “The Iron Lady” and her back to the cage, but de Randamie responds with a knee up the middle that makes Dumont rethink her approach. De Randamie walks Dumont down and kicks her in the head, and Dumont shakes her head at her. De Randamie chains a few punches together, and she allows Dumont to throw hands because hers are more accurate and powerful. De Randamie looses a body kick, and the Brazilian catches it and slings her to the mat. Dumont lands and hacks down with an elbow, and she lifts de Randamie up and slams her on her back again to open up the guard around her waist. De Randamie maintains a high guard to keep Dumont honest, all while throwing elbows or punches off her back. De Randamie looks for butterfly hooks, and Dumont stands up and finds herself in immediate armbar danger. The round ends with Dumont surviving the sudden submission setup.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 de Randamie
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 de Randamie
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 de Randamie

Round 3
The bantamweights hug it out to start the final frame, and de Randamie is ready and willing to strike from her preferred range. Dumont swings back with bad intentions, but the straight, sharp strikes from the Dutchwoman keep her at bay. Dumont charges like a bull, grabbing hold of a double leg and sending de Randamie from one side of the cage to the other. De Randamie urgently moves to her knees and stands up with the wall at her back, and Dumont manages to hit a body lock and trip to dump her back down. De Randamie gives up her back when escaping, and Dumont sets up a rear-naked choke and stays with it while de Randamie turns to her back. Dumont lets the choke go and shifts to side control, where she sets up an arm-triangle choke. Dumont presses her shoulder down when the choke is not locked up, as she is on the other side. Dumont looks to pass as de Randamie turns to her side, and in the process she gives her back up. Dumont jumps on and sneaks a hook in, and she hand-fights while de Randamie protects against a potential choke. De Randamie keeps moving, turning all the way around and back to her knees. The Dutchwoman nearly slides Dumont off of her, but she manages to work to her feet and lean against the fence. Dumont laces one leg between her foe’s and wrangles de Randamie back down to the mat. A desperate de Randamie hacks with elbows or punches as Dumont lays on her, and this continues until time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dumont (29-28 Dumont)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Dumont (29-28 Dumont)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dumont (29-28 Dumont)

The Official Result
Norma Dumont def. Germaine de Randamie via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Norma Dumont

Angelo picks Norma Dumont but acknowledges that Germaine de Randamie is much better than people give her credit for, with only losses to Amanda Nunes and wins over three champions. However, he notes that those wins are old (3.5 to 7 years ago) and that Germaine is 39. He thinks Norma's technical striking and sound takedown defense will be enough. He also mentions that Germaine might be a good plus 3.5 spread bet if she can win one round.

Angelo mentions Germaine de Randamie as a potential plus 3.5 spread bet (buying points) if she can win one round
"I got to go Norma here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

Big Brady picks Germaine de Randamie despite a 3.5-year layoff and many question marks. He notes that de Randamie has only lost to Amanda Nunes in the last 10 years and is the better striker. However, he worries about her takedown defense and the layoff, and acknowledges that the line has moved from +180 to +115, making it less attractive. He is not confident and would not bet on this fight.

"I still think I'm going with gdr here the 39y old with a three and a half year layoff"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

Cody agrees, noting Dumont's low output and reliance on clinch control, which doesn't score well. He highlights de Randamie's striking, body work, and improved cardio. Cody also mentions that Dumont will likely miss weight, which could affect her performance. He sees de Randamie as the better athlete and striker.

"I think it's gdr all day... it's a total dogger pass situation"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

Daniel Vreeland picks Germaine de Randamie despite her four-year layoff, citing her championship-level resume and improvements in takedown defense before the break. He notes Norma Dumont has been dropped by lesser fighters like Megan Anderson and has only one path to win: extended top control. Vreeland believes even 70% of de Randamie is enough to beat Dumont, given the massive step down in competition.

"I think that Germaine de Randamie might have a little something for her so I'm going with the former champ here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

De Randamie is more skilled overall with striking advantages and improved grappling. She has size and reach advantages and can keep the fight upright. However, the three-and-a-half-year layoff and recent pregnancy are major concerns. If she comes in shape, she should win by decision.

de Randamie by decision
"give me durandy and toand me by decision um not a bad Underdog shot but be wary about all the things that I just laid out for you guys"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

Paul picks de Randamie as a dog, citing her superior striking and experience. He notes Dumont is a decision fighter with low volume and no power, and that she will likely miss weight. Paul thinks de Randamie's cardio and durability are solid, and that her striking will be the difference. He calls it a quintessential dogger pass.

"it's a total dogger pass situation and Jermain randomy you could be doing a lot worse"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Norma Dumont

The host uses a mayonnaise bottle flip to decide, but then provides reasoning. He notes Dumont had a close fight with Macy Chiasson, nearly finishing her, showing good grappling. He criticizes de Randamie for being 39, inactive since 2020, and not impressive on the feet. He predicts Dumont will take her down and win on the ground.

"Norma's probably going to win she had a close fight with Macy chasson who I think is actually pretty good of a fighter and has good grappling so Norma jamont arguably nearly beat her"
Technical Submission (guillotine choke) R3 3:25 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana · Oct 04, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Germaine de Randamie 0 37 of 91 40% 57 of 119 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:48
Julianna Peña 0 27 of 91 29% 58 of 125 3 of 6 50% 0 0 5:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Germaine de Randamie 0 20 of 58 34% 23 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 8 of 43 18% 12 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
2 Germaine de Randamie 0 6 of 9 66% 19 of 29 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:48
Julianna Peña 0 11 of 23 47% 30 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:41
3 Germaine de Randamie 0 11 of 24 45% 15 of 29 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 8 of 25 32% 16 of 35 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Germaine de Randamie 37 of 91 40% 32 of 86 5 of 5 0 of 0 32 of 84 4 of 6 1 of 1
Julianna Peña 27 of 91 29% 19 of 79 7 of 10 1 of 2 18 of 75 2 of 2 7 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Germaine de Randamie 20 of 58 34% 18 of 56 2 of 2 0 of 0 20 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 8 of 43 18% 7 of 39 0 of 2 1 of 2 8 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Germaine de Randamie 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 1 of 2 1 of 1
Julianna Peña 11 of 23 47% 6 of 17 5 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 7 of 14
3 Germaine de Randamie 11 of 24 45% 8 of 21 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 8 of 25 32% 6 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 30, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

Big Brady leans towards Germaine de Randamie to win by decision. He notes the striking discrepancy favors de Randamie, and while Peña's path is takedowns, he thinks de Randamie can stop them. He is worried about cage control but expects the fight to stay on the feet.

"give me drain derandomy to win this fight by uh by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

Daniel picks de Randamie, emphasizing the massive striking gap and Peña's ugly stand-up. He believes de Randamie will clip Peña coming in and possibly knock her out, similar to the Aspen Ladd fight. He acknowledges concern if Peña gets on top but thinks de Randamie's takedown defense has improved and she will pull the trigger.

de Randamie by knockout; mentions the striking gap is bigger than the grappling gap; notes Peña's horrendous stand-up
"i'm gonna roll with jermaine duran maybe a knockout in this spot it kind of reminds me of the aspen lad fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

The host picks Peña as the underdog, believing her wrestling and trip takedowns will be effective against de Randamie's takedown defense. He notes that de Randamie has struggled against grapplers like Nunes and that Peña's style is similar. He predicts a decision win for Peña and thinks the line should be closer to -120.

"i love juliana pena in this situation i'm kind of surprised at the amount of love that's coming in on jermaine duranomy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

The Guru picks Germaine de Randamie, believing she can survive on the ground and will keep the fight standing to beat Peña with leg kicks and eventually finish by TKO. He notes Peña couldn't submit Nico Montano and thinks de Randamie is too big and dangerous.

Prediction: TKO
"i'm going to go to jeremy i think she can survive on the ground and i think she'll keep it standing and beat up juliana pena on the feet with some brutal leg kicks eventually finishing by tko"
LOSS vs Amanda Nunes
Decision (unanimous) (49–44, 49–46, 49–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · Dec 14, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Nunes 0 79 of 184 42% 199 of 337 8 of 11 72% 2 0 18:29
Germaine de Randamie 0 40 of 73 54% 126 of 175 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Nunes 0 42 of 87 48% 43 of 88 2 of 2 100% 2 0 2:53
Germaine de Randamie 0 11 of 23 47% 22 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
2 Amanda Nunes 0 9 of 26 34% 33 of 51 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:13
Germaine de Randamie 0 16 of 30 53% 29 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
3 Amanda Nunes 0 16 of 44 36% 47 of 80 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:21
Germaine de Randamie 0 8 of 10 80% 17 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
4 Amanda Nunes 0 12 of 24 50% 22 of 39 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:16
Germaine de Randamie 0 4 of 6 66% 28 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
5 Amanda Nunes 0 0 of 3 0% 54 of 79 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:46
Germaine de Randamie 0 1 of 4 25% 30 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Nunes 79 of 184 42% 63 of 162 4 of 6 12 of 16 15 of 46 2 of 3 62 of 135
Germaine de Randamie 40 of 73 54% 19 of 48 11 of 15 10 of 10 19 of 42 12 of 13 9 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Nunes 42 of 87 48% 38 of 81 1 of 1 3 of 5 4 of 16 1 of 1 37 of 70
Germaine de Randamie 11 of 23 47% 2 of 11 4 of 7 5 of 5 4 of 9 4 of 4 3 of 10
2 Amanda Nunes 9 of 26 34% 4 of 20 0 of 0 5 of 6 5 of 17 1 of 1 3 of 8
Germaine de Randamie 16 of 30 53% 10 of 24 5 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 22 7 of 8 0 of 0
3 Amanda Nunes 16 of 44 36% 13 of 39 1 of 2 2 of 3 2 of 8 0 of 0 14 of 36
Germaine de Randamie 8 of 10 80% 5 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 5
4 Amanda Nunes 12 of 24 50% 8 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 2 4 of 4 0 of 1 8 of 19
Germaine de Randamie 4 of 6 66% 2 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1
5 Amanda Nunes 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2
Germaine de Randamie 1 of 4 25% 0 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2
WIN vs Aspen Ladd
TKO (punch) R1 0:16 · UFC Fight Night: de Randamie vs. Ladd · Jul 13, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Germaine de Randamie 1 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Aspen Ladd 0 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Germaine de Randamie 1 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Aspen Ladd 0 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Germaine de Randamie 4 of 5 80% 3 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1
Aspen Ladd 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Germaine de Randamie 4 of 5 80% 3 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1
Aspen Ladd 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodríguez · Nov 10, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Germaine de Randamie 0 24 of 84 28% 52 of 130 0 of 8 0% 0 0 6:05
Raquel Pennington 0 42 of 107 39% 91 of 159 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Germaine de Randamie 0 4 of 11 36% 14 of 24 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:45
Raquel Pennington 0 9 of 22 40% 29 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
2 Germaine de Randamie 0 12 of 37 32% 20 of 48 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:27
Raquel Pennington 0 13 of 45 28% 24 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
3 Germaine de Randamie 0 8 of 36 22% 18 of 58 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:53
Raquel Pennington 0 20 of 40 50% 38 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Germaine de Randamie 24 of 84 28% 4 of 55 11 of 17 9 of 12 13 of 71 11 of 13 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 42 of 107 39% 17 of 73 17 of 24 8 of 10 25 of 84 17 of 23 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Germaine de Randamie 4 of 11 36% 0 of 7 3 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 8 3 of 3 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 9 of 22 40% 3 of 13 5 of 7 1 of 2 4 of 15 5 of 7 0 of 0
2 Germaine de Randamie 12 of 37 32% 4 of 25 1 of 3 7 of 9 9 of 34 3 of 3 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 13 of 45 28% 9 of 37 3 of 6 1 of 2 9 of 39 4 of 6 0 of 0
3 Germaine de Randamie 8 of 36 22% 0 of 23 7 of 11 1 of 2 3 of 29 5 of 7 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 20 of 40 50% 5 of 23 9 of 11 6 of 6 12 of 30 8 of 10 0 of 0
WIN vs Holly Holm
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 208: Holm vs. de Randamie · Feb 11, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Germaine de Randamie 0 77 of 182 42% 122 of 235 0 of 9 0% 0 0 8:16
Holly Holm 0 80 of 150 53% 144 of 223 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Germaine de Randamie 0 18 of 42 42% 19 of 45 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:36
Holly Holm 0 12 of 25 48% 15 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Germaine de Randamie 0 13 of 30 43% 28 of 45 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:21
Holly Holm 0 19 of 34 55% 36 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
3 Germaine de Randamie 0 18 of 42 42% 19 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:07
Holly Holm 0 16 of 39 41% 19 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
4 Germaine de Randamie 0 12 of 34 35% 19 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:33
Holly Holm 0 16 of 26 61% 32 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
5 Germaine de Randamie 0 16 of 34 47% 37 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:39
Holly Holm 0 17 of 26 65% 42 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Germaine de Randamie 77 of 182 42% 18 of 99 21 of 37 38 of 46 61 of 161 16 of 21 0 of 0
Holly Holm 80 of 150 53% 28 of 88 34 of 40 18 of 22 49 of 113 31 of 36 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Germaine de Randamie 18 of 42 42% 4 of 25 2 of 3 12 of 14 17 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Holly Holm 12 of 25 48% 5 of 16 3 of 4 4 of 5 11 of 22 1 of 2 0 of 1
2 Germaine de Randamie 13 of 30 43% 2 of 17 6 of 7 5 of 6 7 of 23 6 of 7 0 of 0
Holly Holm 19 of 34 55% 8 of 20 10 of 13 1 of 1 9 of 21 10 of 13 0 of 0
3 Germaine de Randamie 18 of 42 42% 3 of 21 4 of 8 11 of 13 18 of 41 0 of 1 0 of 0
Holly Holm 16 of 39 41% 8 of 30 3 of 3 5 of 6 12 of 34 4 of 5 0 of 0
4 Germaine de Randamie 12 of 34 35% 1 of 15 6 of 12 5 of 7 8 of 27 4 of 7 0 of 0
Holly Holm 16 of 26 61% 1 of 7 11 of 13 4 of 6 8 of 18 8 of 8 0 of 0
5 Germaine de Randamie 16 of 34 47% 8 of 21 3 of 7 5 of 6 11 of 29 5 of 5 0 of 0
Holly Holm 17 of 26 65% 6 of 15 7 of 7 4 of 4 9 of 18 8 of 8 0 of 0
WIN vs Anna Elmose
TKO (knee to the body and punches) R1 3:46 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Arlovski · May 08, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Germaine de Randamie 1 18 of 29 62% 23 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Anna Elmose 0 6 of 10 60% 32 of 43 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Germaine de Randamie 1 18 of 29 62% 23 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Anna Elmose 0 6 of 10 60% 32 of 43 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Germaine de Randamie 18 of 29 62% 9 of 19 9 of 10 0 of 0 7 of 16 11 of 13 0 of 0
Anna Elmose 6 of 10 60% 2 of 3 2 of 5 2 of 2 2 of 4 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Germaine de Randamie 18 of 29 62% 9 of 19 9 of 10 0 of 0 7 of 16 11 of 13 0 of 0
Anna Elmose 6 of 10 60% 2 of 3 2 of 5 2 of 2 2 of 4 4 of 6 0 of 0
TKO (punches) R2 2:02 · UFC 185: Pettis vs. dos Anjos · Mar 14, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Germaine de Randamie 0 8 of 60 13% 13 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Larissa Pacheco 0 29 of 84 34% 31 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Germaine de Randamie 0 6 of 43 13% 11 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Larissa Pacheco 0 16 of 57 28% 18 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Germaine de Randamie 0 2 of 17 11% 2 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Larissa Pacheco 0 13 of 27 48% 13 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Germaine de Randamie 8 of 60 13% 4 of 48 1 of 4 3 of 8 8 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Larissa Pacheco 29 of 84 34% 26 of 76 0 of 2 3 of 6 28 of 83 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Germaine de Randamie 6 of 43 13% 4 of 38 0 of 0 2 of 5 6 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Larissa Pacheco 16 of 57 28% 14 of 50 0 of 2 2 of 5 15 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Germaine de Randamie 2 of 17 11% 0 of 10 1 of 4 1 of 3 2 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Larissa Pacheco 13 of 27 48% 12 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1 13 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Holly Holm - Fight History
LOSS vs Kayla Harrison
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:47 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kayla Harrison 0 2 of 12 16% 7 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Holly Holm 0 51 of 71 71% 68 of 91 2 of 5 40% 1 0 4:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kayla Harrison 0 1 of 6 16% 6 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Holly Holm 0 46 of 62 74% 56 of 73 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:49
2 Kayla Harrison 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Holly Holm 0 5 of 9 55% 12 of 18 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kayla Harrison 2 of 12 16% 1 of 9 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 2
Holly Holm 51 of 71 71% 46 of 66 4 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 15 3 of 3 42 of 53
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kayla Harrison 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2
Holly Holm 46 of 62 74% 43 of 59 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 10 1 of 1 41 of 51
2 Kayla Harrison 1 of 6 16% 0 of 3 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Holly Holm 5 of 9 55% 3 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 2 of 2 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Angelo picks Kayla Harrison despite weight cut concerns, believing her Judo and pressure will overwhelm Holm. He notes Holm's best chance is to stay on the outside and make it boring, but Harrison will eat a shot and get the takedown. He will watch weigh-ins before betting.

Will watch weigh-ins before betting
"I think Kayla absolutely blows through Holly home here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Cody acknowledges the weight cut concerns but believes Harrison will be strong and physical if she makes weight. He notes Holly Holm looked old in her last fight against Macy Chiasson, losing mobility and the ability to dart in and out. Harrison's wrestling and pressure should allow her to pin Holm against the cage and take her down. Cody thinks Holm at 42 is not what she used to be, and the UFC is setting up Harrison for a title shot. He picks Harrison to get the win, likely by controlling the fight on the ground.

"I will back her and think that she does get that done."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Connor picks Harrison, noting that Holm's game is busted and her body seems broken. He acknowledges that Harrison has not faced elite competition but believes Holm's lack of functional tools outside the clinch will be her downfall. Connor expects Harrison to take Holm down and control the fight, though he admits Holm could stall in the clinch.

Odds: Harrison opened -455, now -395; Holm opened +316, now +324. Connor mentions the line movement.
"I'm going to pick Kayla Harrison too, obviously, but it does have to be said that like Kayla Harrison does not have a record littered with the most impressive fighters, let's say."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Daniel Vreeland picks Kayla Harrison, citing her superior grappling and physicality. He believes Harrison will take Holm down and control her on the ground, despite concerns about Harrison's weight cut and striking. Vreeland notes that Holm's output is low and she may clinch, which plays into Harrison's judo.

"I am definitely going with Kayla as well"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He expresses excitement to see Kayla Harrison in the UFC but criticizes the matchup, saying Holly Holm is on the decline at 42 years old and not active. He would have preferred a different opponent like Julianna Peña or Miesha Tate, but understands the decision due to lack of contenders. He does not state who he thinks will win.

"I'm excited to see Kayla in the UFC I know a lot of people are on her I'm excited to see her on the UFC me personally man so that's another good fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Harrison's grappling will be too much for Holm. She will take the fight to the ground, smash Holm with elbows from top position, and eventually open a submission opportunity for a dominant finish. However, wait for weigh-ins due to Harrison's weight cut concerns.

submission, wait for weigh-ins
"I do lean Harrison as I think that her grappling will end up being too much for Holly Holm"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Paul is hesitant due to the weight cut and Harrison's cardio issues in the past. He notes that if Harrison tires from a bad weight cut, Holm could take over. However, he acknowledges Holm's recent decline and thinks Harrison's wrestling will be effective early. Paul calls it a clear dogger pass, but ultimately picks Harrison because Holm's mobility has diminished and Harrison should be able to control the fight. He mentions the CF dot model (taking the big plus money on women's underdog) but decides to go with the favorite.

"I think it's a clear dogger pass probably a pass for me but uh do you have an official pick... I find myself pulling the coward card on this one and going with Kayla Harrison."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

The MMA Guru picks Kayla Harrison to dominate Holly Holm via decision. He highlights Harrison's superior wrestling and physicality, predicting she will take Holm down and control her on the ground. He questions Holm's motivation at age 42 and believes Harrison's strength and focus will be decisive.

"Kayla Harrison is going to get down Holly Holm and dominate her in this fight to a decision win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Zane picks Harrison confidently, believing her clinch judo game will be too much for Holm. He notes that Holm is old (42), slow, and cannot pull the trigger anymore. Zane argues that Holm's only functional part of her game is the clinch, but she lacks the foot speed to keep Harrison at bay. He expects a dominant grappling performance from Harrison.

Odds: Harrison opened -455, now -395; Holm opened +316, now +324. Zane mentions the line movement.
"My lane is that Kayla Harrison's clinched judo game is too good for Holly home to be just strong in the clench and make that what works for her."
No Contest (overturned) R2 0:38 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Jul 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Holly Holm 0 27 of 39 69% 50 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:05
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 20 of 37 54% 31 of 50 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Holly Holm 0 26 of 38 68% 49 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:42
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 19 of 33 57% 30 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Holly Holm 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Holly Holm 27 of 39 69% 15 of 24 10 of 12 2 of 3 21 of 31 6 of 8 0 of 0
Mayra Bueno Silva 20 of 37 54% 9 of 21 7 of 10 4 of 6 13 of 28 7 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Holly Holm 26 of 38 68% 15 of 24 9 of 11 2 of 3 20 of 30 6 of 8 0 of 0
Mayra Bueno Silva 19 of 33 57% 8 of 17 7 of 10 4 of 6 12 of 24 7 of 9 0 of 0
2 Holly Holm 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mayra Bueno Silva 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Holly Holm vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holm (-170), Bueno Silva (+145)

Round 1
Likely the lone fight on the card with immediate championship implications, former champ Holm (15-6, 8-6 UFC) will look to send a message to the matchmakers that she is still at the top of her game at 41 years of age. Silva (10-2-1, 5-2-1 UFC), 10 years younger, is gunning for an upset, with upwards of five rounds to do just that. Needing no further introduction, referee Keith Peterson prepares for the bantamweight main attraction, one that opens up with a quick tap of gloves and not a lick of nonsense. Silva advances slowly, and Holm races at her and throws punches to back her away. Silva kicks the lead calf twice, and Holm gives her a scare with a head kick. Holm is moving quickly on the outside, and she sticks Silva twice with right hands before changing levels for a single. Silva stands up and elbows her foe in the face, leading Holm to let it go and squeeze against her in the clinch. They trade short knees on the inside to little effect, and Holm settles down to impose her weight and will. Holm pushes off and gets away without a strike on the break, and she lifts her leg up to check a body kick. Holm moves quickly to get Silva’s attention with a few punches, and she is out of the way before a counter finds its mark. Holm uses her momentum to clinch Silva up again. When they stall out, Holm times an elbow to break away, and she separates to back off only to lunge forward with a few punches. Silva wings an elbow that slams into Holm’s temple, and Holm has to shake it off and retreat. Silva chases with a few punches, and Holm kicks her way out of a clinch and starts working the body with her feet. Silva comes up short on a front kick, and Holm bounces around before Silva comes towards her. Holm dodges a spinning strike, and she takes a left on the chin and a subsequent right hand to stun Holm. The former champ shoots in for a double after getting her bell rung, and the Brazilian keeps her back to the cage wall and even lifts up a knee to hit Holm during the takedown. Silva motions to Peterson to get between them, but the round ends with Holm hanging on tight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm

Round 2
Holm paces back and forth in her corner before they start fighting again, and Silva takes the center of the cage and gets kicked in the midsection on the way in. Cutting Holm off, Silva pops Holm with a right hook. The former kickboxer moves forward to clinch, and Silva slides her arm under the chin with her back leaned against the wall.
As Holm leans over for a potential takedown, Silva connects her arm to set up a ninja choke that is a modified, dangerous guillotine choke. Holm wriggles but is shocked at this situation, as she is trapped and cannot come up with a way to get out of the bad spot. “Sheetara” leans forward to press her chest down and put more pressure on the neck and submission grip, and she knows she has set the hook. Before she goes out, Holm frantically taps out on the side of her opponent.
Peterson rushes to the other side to see if there had been a tap, and Silva releases the grip before Peterson is able to get between them and separate them. This is a massive feather in the cap for the Brazilian, who is only the second fighter to ever submit Holm – and the first, Miesha Tate, did so to win the bantamweight title. The victorious Silva is the only betting underdog to have pulled off a win tonight, and she made a real statement and stamped herself as an instant contender for the champ-less division. In her post-fight interview, Silva speaks about her mental health issues, thanking those that helped her through the worst days that are behind her. Calling for a title shot, it could be entirely possible that “Sheetara” punched her ticket for that opportunity, as the line of contenders is hardly a determined one. If she gets the next crack at the 135-pound title, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Mayra Bueno Silva def. Holly Holm R2 0:38 via Submission (Ninja Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Angelo is confident in Holly Holm, calling her the more technical striker with better takedown defense and offense. He notes Silva's losses have come via wrestling, and Holly can do the same. He thinks Holly can hold Silva against the cage, get takedowns, and avoid submissions. He placed a one-unit moneyline bet at minus 160. He disagrees with a DM suggesting Silva should be the favorite, stating Holly has earned the right to be favored.

one unit moneyline bet at -160
"Holly Holm confident pick and I have that one unit moneyline bet on her"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Big Brady picks Holly Holm but with hesitation, as he sees two clear outcomes: Holm dominating on the feet or Bueno Silva catching an armbar. He notes Holm is 41 but still looks good, and if she fights smart and keeps it standing, she should cruise. However, he worries Holm might take Bueno Silva down and get submitted. He is not betting this fight due to the risk.

Not betting this fight
"I'm gonna take Holly home here but I could 100 see a scenario where Holly Holm takes down Bueno Silva and gets like armbarred and I'm extremely annoyed because I bet holy home but luckily I'm I'm not betting this …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Cody picks Holly Holm, comparing her to a Rolex watch that keeps going. He highlights her high ring IQ, ability to adapt, and wrestling improvements. He notes Silva's takedown defense issues and that Holm can mix in takedowns. He expects Holm to Matador from the outside, mix in takedowns, and win a decision, possibly winning championship rounds.

"I gotta go with Holly Holm as well minus 180 women's MMA again... she's like a Rolex watch man she just keeps going"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

James is leaning towards Mayra Bueno Silva as an underdog. He notes that Holly Holm is 41 years old and may be declining, while Bueno Silva has strong submission skills and finishing ability. He mentions that many respected bettors are on Holm, but he is skeptical of her grappling and thinks Bueno Silva could submit her. He plans to watch more tape but is leaning towards the dog side.

submission finish
"I do think that Buena Silva has some submission upside that Holly Holm maybe hasn't seen before"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The host believes Holm's veteran savvy and clinch-heavy approach will keep her safe from Bueno Silva's submissions. He expects Holm to mix striking, clinch, and grappling to cruise to a decision win. He notes Bueno Silva's lack of urgency and low volume as weaknesses.

"I think she wins by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Paul picks Holly Holm, citing her technical striking, experience, and ability to win at range. He expects a slow, tepid fight with Holm winning a decision, similar to the Vieira fight. He notes the line moved from -145 to -180, so he missed his betting window. He also mentions the PrizePicks over 90.5 significant strikes is tight and won't play it.

mentioned over 90.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks but won't play it
"I think experience wins out here she can win with volume on the feet... I expect a slow tepid Affair 25 minutes and home gets her hand raised"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The MMA Guru picks Holly Holm over Mayra Bueno Silva, noting Holm's activity, athleticism, and ability to control fights against the cage. He questions Silva's cardio for a five-round fight and doubts her submission threat, believing Holm can dictate where the fight takes place. He predicts Holm wins by decision or late stoppage.

"I'm gonna go with Holly Holm confident in her I think mayor Bueno Silva's dangerous but I don't think she's dangerous enough on the feet"
WIN vs Yana Santos
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Holly Holm 0 32 of 63 50% 105 of 163 4 of 6 66% 0 0 9:49
Yana Santos 0 21 of 46 45% 120 of 185 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Holly Holm 0 7 of 16 43% 24 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:41
Yana Santos 0 12 of 25 48% 50 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
2 Holly Holm 0 16 of 33 48% 43 of 67 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:09
Yana Santos 0 7 of 12 58% 38 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Holly Holm 0 9 of 14 64% 38 of 60 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:59
Yana Santos 0 2 of 9 22% 32 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Holly Holm 32 of 63 50% 23 of 49 8 of 12 1 of 2 14 of 33 4 of 5 14 of 25
Yana Santos 21 of 46 45% 3 of 22 8 of 9 10 of 15 15 of 37 6 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Holly Holm 7 of 16 43% 5 of 12 2 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0
Yana Santos 12 of 25 48% 2 of 13 3 of 4 7 of 8 9 of 20 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Holly Holm 16 of 33 48% 12 of 27 4 of 5 0 of 1 4 of 11 0 of 1 12 of 21
Yana Santos 7 of 12 58% 1 of 4 3 of 3 3 of 5 6 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Holly Holm 9 of 14 64% 6 of 10 2 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 7 3 of 3 2 of 4
Yana Santos 2 of 9 22% 0 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 2 0 of 6 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Angelo is very confident in Holm, calling her one of his two most confident picks on the card. He notes that Holm is a technical striker with great footwork and that her age (41) matters less because she doesn't rely on speed or take much damage. He points out that Santos lacks power, which plays into Holm's style, and that Santos is coming off a two-year layoff after having a baby. He believes Holm should dominate and that the line should be wider, but he is wary of betting women's MMA due to past upsets.

"Holly Holm is my most confident pick on this entire card."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Big Brady picks Holly Holm but with low confidence, citing red flags on both sides. He notes Holm's age (41) and decline in her last fight against Ketlen Vieira, as well as a layoff. On Santos' side, she just had a baby and got married, which Brady views as potential distractions. He expects Holm to win by holding Santos against the cage for three rounds in a boring decision, but calls the fight a 'big pass' for betting.

Holm by decision
"holms gonna go out there and hold Santa's against the cage for three rounds decision to win there you go but I would not be betting on this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Cody picks Holly Holm but is hesitant due to her age and potential decline. He notes Holm has shifted to a wrestling-heavy game plan and is effective in the clinch. He believes Holm should win but doesn't like the -250 moneyline, preferring Holm by decision at -115. He acknowledges the Pat Mayo theory of betting women's underdogs but still leans Holm. He mentions Holm's durability and Santos coming off a KO loss.

Holly Holm by decision; over 2.5 rounds
"I would personally bet Holly Holm by decision because I don't want to bet Hollywood minus 250 straight up"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Connor picks Holm because Santos is fragile and tends to revert to clinching when pressured, which plays into Holm's strength. He notes Holm's striking has slowed but she remains strong in the clinch and hard to hurt. He expects Holm to hold Santos on the fence for three rounds and win a decision.

Mentions odds: Holm opened -200, currently -238; Santos opened +150, currently +193. Notes line is getting wider.
"I got to just pick Holly home to hold her on the fence for three rounds and for Yana Konitsuka to not be able to make anything that makes it look like she's won the fight."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Jacob also picks Holm, agreeing she is the better fighter everywhere. He notes that Holm is not a finisher and the fight likely goes to decision, which could be risky with Texas judges. He mentions that Santos might be aggressive and that the optics could favor her if she pressures, but he thinks Holm should dominate. He says he found plus money on Holm and has a bet on her, but does not specify the exact prop.

Found plus money on Holly Holm (specific prop not stated)
"I found plus money for Holly Holm that I absolutely love."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The host expects another veteran performance from Holly Holm, believing she will grind against Yana Santos against the cage, utilize her superior strength and power, drag the fight to the ground, and do good work from top position. He notes that Santos is coming off a layoff after having a baby, which adds uncertainty. He thinks Holm's physical fitness and longevity are exceptional for her age, and that strength advantage will be key. He predicts Holm wins by decision.

"I think we're in store for another veteran performance here from Holly Holm"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The Guru picks Holm, citing her recent wins over Aldana and Pennington, and notes that Santos hasn't fought since 2021 and had a child. He expects Holm to use her athleticism and cage control to win a decision, though he admits it's a sad prediction.

"probably just Holly Holm holding her against a cage... I'm gonna go Holly home pushing her against a cage"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Holm's clinch strength hasn't decayed and Santos lacks confidence to avoid a Holm fight. He doubts Santos can win unless she proves she can overcome Holm's physicality. He sees it as a fight where Holm's strength and clinch work will be decisive.

Mentions odds: Holm -238, Santos +193. Notes the line is getting wider.
"You got to pick home Santos. She really would have to prove that she can win a fight like this."
LOSS vs Ketlen Vieira
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · May 21, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ketlen Vieira 0 96 of 157 61% 188 of 263 0 of 6 0% 0 0 10:03
Holly Holm 0 85 of 151 56% 122 of 190 1 of 7 14% 1 0 1:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ketlen Vieira 0 6 of 9 66% 33 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:36
Holly Holm 0 19 of 22 86% 40 of 45 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:19
2 Ketlen Vieira 0 14 of 21 66% 33 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:46
Holly Holm 0 10 of 22 45% 17 of 29 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:56
3 Ketlen Vieira 0 18 of 30 60% 42 of 56 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:50
Holly Holm 0 23 of 37 62% 27 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
4 Ketlen Vieira 0 37 of 68 54% 37 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Holly Holm 0 23 of 51 45% 23 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Ketlen Vieira 0 21 of 29 72% 43 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:42
Holly Holm 0 10 of 19 52% 15 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ketlen Vieira 96 of 157 61% 26 of 79 34 of 40 36 of 38 76 of 133 20 of 24 0 of 0
Holly Holm 85 of 151 56% 49 of 109 29 of 34 7 of 8 49 of 110 32 of 37 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ketlen Vieira 6 of 9 66% 2 of 4 0 of 1 4 of 4 3 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 0
Holly Holm 19 of 22 86% 3 of 5 14 of 15 2 of 2 3 of 6 14 of 14 2 of 2
2 Ketlen Vieira 14 of 21 66% 6 of 13 2 of 2 6 of 6 8 of 15 6 of 6 0 of 0
Holly Holm 10 of 22 45% 7 of 15 2 of 5 1 of 2 6 of 15 2 of 5 2 of 2
3 Ketlen Vieira 18 of 30 60% 4 of 13 9 of 11 5 of 6 13 of 25 5 of 5 0 of 0
Holly Holm 23 of 37 62% 11 of 25 11 of 11 1 of 1 13 of 26 10 of 11 0 of 0
4 Ketlen Vieira 37 of 68 54% 5 of 33 16 of 18 16 of 17 36 of 66 1 of 2 0 of 0
Holly Holm 23 of 51 45% 19 of 46 2 of 3 2 of 2 20 of 47 3 of 4 0 of 0
5 Ketlen Vieira 21 of 29 72% 9 of 16 7 of 8 5 of 5 16 of 22 5 of 7 0 of 0
Holly Holm 10 of 19 52% 9 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1 7 of 16 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Holly Holm vs. Ketlen Vieira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holm (-240), Vieira (+195)

Round 1
Jason Herzog will oversee the evening’s bantamweight headliner. After having multiple fights fall through, Holm makes her first appearance since a dominant win over Irene Aldana in October 2020. Vieira, meanwhile, will attempt to add another notable name to her ledger after besting ex-champ Miesha Tate this past November. Holm opens up with an outside leg kick and Vieira answers with a heavy inside leg kick. Holm with a side kick to the knee of her opponent. Vieira closes distance and shoves Holm into the fence. The Jackson-Wink product quickly reverses position. Vieira attempts to execute a throw and then lands a few punches as Holm scrambles up. They remain in the clinch, with Holm in control, pushing Vieira into the fence. Holm with a few short punches to the head. Holm defends a trip and lands a few punches. Holm is controlling the clinch and appears to be the stronger fighter, but there’s not a ton of action in this position. They trade knees and Holm drops for a single leg. Holm gives up on it and continues to grind away against the fence. Holm lands a few knees to the thigh of Vieira, who responds with knees of her own to the midsection. Holm defends another throw and the round ends in the clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Holm

Round 2
Holm begins with an outside leg kick. Vieira just misses the mark on a head kick. The Brazilian moves forward and fires off a straight right. Vieira closes the distance behind a combination, but Holm circles out. Another leg kick for Holm. Holm with a leg kick yet again, and she moves away from Vieira’s counter. Holm punches her way into the clinch and Vieira executes a nice hip toss. Holm immediately slides to the fence and posts an arm before standing. Vieira shoves Holm into the cage, but “The Preacher’s Daughter” turns off the cage and separates. Holm with a standing side kick to the head. Holm gets in on a single leg. Vieira hops on one leg while attacking a guillotine. Holm clings to the leg and atttempts to drag Viera to the mat. She leaves her neck exposed and Vieira briefly has a really tight standing rear-naked choke. Somehow Holm, with her face red and eyes bulging, turns out of it and shoves Vieira into the cage. Holm fires off a hard elbow from the clinch. Another elbow for Holm with time winding down. The round ends with Holm controlling position against the fence.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tudor Leonte scores the round:10-9 Vieira

Round 3
Holm goes back to the outside leg kick and Vieira answers with an inside low kick. Holm with a punching flurry, but Vieira counters her. Moments later, a front kick to the face from Vieira appears to catch Holm, who keeps her bearings and turns her foe into the cage. Holm is content to grind away from the clinch, but Vieira breaks free. Holm with an outside leg kick followed by a side kick to the midsection. Holm goes with a high kick, but Vieira blocks it. A right hand from Vieira lands flush, so Holm punches her way into the clinch. Vieira does a good job landing a few knees up the middle with her back to the cage. Holm continues to control head positioning with an underhook while occasionally flurrying with left hands. Holm with more short left hands to the head, and Vieira breaks free and lands a solid right hand. Holm lands a standing side kick but Vieira marches forward and sticks a stiff right nad to the chin. Holm ends the frame with a few knees in close quarters.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Vieira

Round 4
Holm moves forward behind a combination, but Vieira answers with a clean right hand. Holm attempts to close the distance, but she’s stung by a right nand from Vieira. A front kick to the face lands for Holm but Vieira eats it without issue. Holm rushes forward but Vieira counters with the more significant punches. Vieira tags Holm with a combination. They briefly clinch and Vieira sticks another right. Holm’s blitzes aren’t effectively, but a standing side kick puts Vieira on her seat and Holm follows with a body kick when she stands. Another Vieira right hand catches Holm coming in. Holm forces the clinch but eats an uppercut in the process. Vieira is able to separate and circle away. A straight right snaps Holm’s head back. It’s another close round, but Vieira counters effectively with a punching combination yet again as Holm wades forward. Holm continues to throw a variety of kicks, but the punching exchanges are going Vieira’s way. Holm with another furious flurry before the bantamweights clinch at the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Tudor Leonte scores the round:10-9 Holm

Round 5
The combatants hug to start the round. Vieira gets Holm’s attention with a head kick. They clinch, and Vieira breaks with a spinning elbow. Holm with a big left hand into the clinch. Vieira breaks free and Holm attacks with a front kick to the body. Holm forces the clinch again and the fighters stall before they reach the fence. Holm lands a short elbow on the break. Vieira counters a kick with a solid right hand. Holm forces the clinch and shoves Vieira into the cage, where she lands a knee. Vieira separates, but Holm lands a pair of nice front kicks to the face. A glancing head kick also finds the mark for Holm. Vieira counters an onrushing Holm with an uppercut. Holm changes levels and grabs a single leg. She shoves Vieira into the fence with less than 2:00 to go. Holm lets go of the leg but maintains the underhook. A short right hook lands for Holm on the break. Holm with a kick to the body and they clinch again. Holm shoves Vieira back into the fence. On the break, Holm with a flurry of punches. Holm stuffs an ensuing takedown from Vieira, turns her foe into the fence and lands several short punches. Holm drops for a takedown, can't get it and then lands some punches to the thigh before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm (48-47 Holm)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Holm (48-47 Holm)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Holm (48-47 Holm)

The Official Result
Ketlen Vieira def. Holly Holm via Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 15, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Angelo picks Holly Holm because she can turn the fight into a kickboxing match and has excellent takedown defense. He notes that Vieira's charging forward plays into Holm's counter-striking. He doesn't factor in the layoff because Holm has never been an active fighter. He expects a decision win for Holm and suggests a prop bet on Holm by decision.

Holly Holm by decision
"holly holm by decision is probably the best bet in this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Big Brady picks Holly Holm to win by decision, citing her superior striking, cardio, and competition level. He notes Vieira has a grappling advantage but doubts she can out-grapple Holm for five rounds. His only concern is Holm's age (40) and 19-month layoff, but he believes if she looks like she did against Irene Aldana, she should cruise. He sees no path to victory for Vieira unless Holm is old.

"i like holly holm to win i like calling him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Cody believes Holly Holm's striking volume, improved wrestling, and five-round experience will be too much for Ketlen Vieira. He notes Holm's lateral mobility and speed, and that Vieira has been outstruck in most of her UFC fights. He is confident Holm wins but finds the -240 moneyline a bit steep, preferring to bet Holm by decision or late-round finishes.

Holm round 4 (+2500), Holm round 5 (+3000), Holm by decision
"i'm willing to pay if i need to but i'd like to improve it and whereas normally i would just hammer up this holly holm by decision i almost do get that bad impression as you mentioned that home could …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked May 21, 2022 (fight day)

The host discusses the main event but does not make a clear pick. He mentions Holly Holm's age and questions whether she can still compete at 40, but does not state a preference. He also notes that the fight could go to decision and includes it in a totals parlay (over 4.5 rounds), but does not pick a winner.

over 4.5 rounds (part of totals parlay)
"home vieta over four and a half"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Paul likes Holly Holm to win but is hesitant due to the -240 price and Holm's age (40). He notes Holm's striking and improved wrestling, but says he doesn't love the moneyline. He is interested in sprinkling on Holm round 4 (+2500) and round 5 (+3000) if Vieira shows up like she did against Yana Kunitskaya, as Holm could finish her late.

Holm round 4 (+2500), Holm round 5 (+3000)
"i like holly holm to win -240 scares me a little bit off she obviously she's 40 years old um but like i mean she's still in damn good shape for her age the volume is always there obviously she's …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The MMA Guru picks Holly Holm, citing her superior striking, conditioning, and athleticism. He thinks Ketlen Vieira lacks KO power and will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He predicts Holm will lose the first round but win the next four via decision.

"i'm going to go with holly holm i'm going to go decision win"
WIN vs Irene Aldana
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana · Oct 04, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Holly Holm 0 154 of 301 51% 187 of 342 5 of 14 35% 0 0 5:16
Irene Aldana 0 69 of 185 37% 92 of 210 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Holly Holm 0 21 of 50 42% 31 of 60 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:39
Irene Aldana 0 12 of 31 38% 13 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Holly Holm 0 23 of 47 48% 27 of 53 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:19
Irene Aldana 0 12 of 32 37% 17 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Holly Holm 0 23 of 51 45% 37 of 67 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:06
Irene Aldana 0 9 of 25 36% 11 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
4 Holly Holm 0 39 of 58 67% 39 of 60 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:33
Irene Aldana 0 18 of 42 42% 19 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Holly Holm 0 48 of 95 50% 53 of 102 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:39
Irene Aldana 0 18 of 55 32% 32 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Holly Holm 154 of 301 51% 81 of 214 56 of 68 17 of 19 140 of 272 1 of 1 13 of 28
Irene Aldana 69 of 185 37% 38 of 128 12 of 30 19 of 27 65 of 181 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Holly Holm 21 of 50 42% 8 of 33 8 of 10 5 of 7 21 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Irene Aldana 12 of 31 38% 3 of 14 1 of 4 8 of 13 12 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Holly Holm 23 of 47 48% 10 of 31 8 of 11 5 of 5 21 of 45 0 of 0 2 of 2
Irene Aldana 12 of 32 37% 5 of 21 2 of 4 5 of 7 10 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Holly Holm 23 of 51 45% 12 of 38 10 of 12 1 of 1 14 of 27 0 of 0 9 of 24
Irene Aldana 9 of 25 36% 4 of 19 3 of 4 2 of 2 8 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Holly Holm 39 of 58 67% 14 of 28 19 of 24 6 of 6 37 of 56 0 of 0 2 of 2
Irene Aldana 18 of 42 42% 13 of 34 3 of 6 2 of 2 17 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Holly Holm 48 of 95 50% 37 of 84 11 of 11 0 of 0 47 of 94 1 of 1 0 of 0
Irene Aldana 18 of 55 32% 13 of 40 3 of 12 2 of 3 18 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 30, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

Big Brady leans towards Irene Aldana to win by decision. He cites Aldana's higher output and youth, while Holm is older and slowing down. He thinks Holm will try to grind against the cage, but when at range, Aldana has the edge. He expects a close, boring fight.

"give me uh irene aldana to win by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

Daniel picks Irene Aldana, citing her upward trajectory, higher output, and power. He notes that Holly Holm is slowing down and relies on stalling against the fence, but Aldana has the tools to win a decision by outworking her. He acknowledges Aldana's past close losses and chinny moments but believes she is the younger, hungrier fighter with more power on the feet.

Aldana by decision; mentions Aldana is the underdog at +100; notes hesitancy betting due to possibility of Holm winning a close decision
"i'm going to say irena aldana wins this decision by just slightly having more output than holly holm"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The host picks Holly Holm to win by decision, emphasizing her veteran experience, strength, and ability to make fights ugly by clinching and using takedowns. He believes Aldana's power is a threat but that Holm's fight IQ and durability will carry her over five rounds.

"i am going to take hollyoam to win this fight via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

The Guru picks Irene Aldana, praising her stand-up, pace, and improvement. He argues that Holm's recent wins are unimpressive and that Aldana's loss to Pennington was close. He believes Aldana will work the body and possibly get a second-round TKO, noting her training with Alexa Grasso and her ability to push a high pace.

Prediction: TKO round 2
"i'm going to go with irene o'donnell here i think she gets it done against holly holm"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Jan 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Holly Holm 0 30 of 62 48% 81 of 129 0 of 3 0% 0 0 7:16
Raquel Pennington 0 38 of 78 48% 55 of 95 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Holly Holm 0 6 of 12 50% 26 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:48
Raquel Pennington 0 5 of 14 35% 7 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
2 Holly Holm 0 9 of 17 52% 32 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:07
Raquel Pennington 0 19 of 27 70% 28 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
3 Holly Holm 0 15 of 33 45% 23 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:21
Raquel Pennington 0 14 of 37 37% 20 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Holly Holm 30 of 62 48% 12 of 33 9 of 18 9 of 11 20 of 50 10 of 12 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 38 of 78 48% 9 of 43 27 of 30 2 of 5 10 of 46 28 of 32 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Holly Holm 6 of 12 50% 2 of 5 2 of 3 2 of 4 3 of 9 3 of 3 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 5 of 14 35% 1 of 8 3 of 3 1 of 3 2 of 11 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Holly Holm 9 of 17 52% 2 of 8 5 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 9 6 of 8 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 19 of 27 70% 3 of 10 15 of 16 1 of 1 2 of 9 17 of 18 0 of 0
3 Holly Holm 15 of 33 45% 8 of 20 2 of 8 5 of 5 14 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 14 of 37 37% 5 of 25 9 of 11 0 of 1 6 of 26 8 of 11 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Daniel picks Raquel Pennington to edge out a close decision. He notes that Pennington is the more active fighter moving forward and that Holm has gone 4-5 since their first fight while Pennington is 5-2. He also mentions that Pennington is younger at 31 vs Holm pushing 40.

"I will take Raquel to edge out a very close decision this time just by being the more active fighter that's moving forward the entire time."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The host is confident in Holly Holm, having already placed 2.5 units at -122. He believes Holm won the first fight easily and that her counter-striking, fight IQ, and power left head kick will be too much for Pennington. He argues that Holm is better at getting off the cage and landing damaging shots, while Pennington's forward movement plays into Holm's game. He dismisses concerns about Holm's recent record, noting she lost to elite fighters, and sees Pennington as a step below.

2.5 units at -122; might sprinkle another unit if line improves.
"I have 2.5 units on Holly Holm"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 6, 2020 (12 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

The host picks Raquel Pennington, citing her thickness and ability to take damage, as seen in her performance against Amanda Nunes. He criticizes Holly Holm's damage-taking ability and age (38), suggesting her prime is over. He predicts Pennington wins by decision.

decision
"Raquel Pennington is gonna get a job done here I'll be honest with you guys I like her damage taking ability I don't like Holly Holm's damage taking ability whatsoever"
LOSS vs Amanda Nunes
TKO (head kick and punches) R1 4:10 · UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · Jul 06, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Nunes 1 17 of 35 48% 17 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Holly Holm 0 11 of 14 78% 14 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Nunes 1 17 of 35 48% 17 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Holly Holm 0 11 of 14 78% 14 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Nunes 17 of 35 48% 8 of 23 6 of 9 3 of 3 11 of 27 3 of 4 3 of 4
Holly Holm 11 of 14 78% 3 of 4 0 of 1 8 of 9 11 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Nunes 17 of 35 48% 8 of 23 6 of 9 3 of 3 11 of 27 3 of 4 3 of 4
Holly Holm 11 of 14 78% 3 of 4 0 of 1 8 of 9 11 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · Jun 09, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Holly Holm 0 47 of 71 66% 143 of 176 4 of 8 50% 1 0 10:44
Megan Anderson 0 26 of 58 44% 48 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Holly Holm 0 12 of 17 70% 35 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:33
Megan Anderson 0 15 of 31 48% 21 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Holly Holm 0 18 of 31 58% 57 of 74 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:39
Megan Anderson 0 7 of 19 36% 16 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Holly Holm 0 17 of 23 73% 51 of 60 2 of 4 50% 1 0 3:32
Megan Anderson 0 4 of 8 50% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Holly Holm 47 of 71 66% 27 of 47 12 of 14 8 of 10 19 of 35 8 of 10 20 of 26
Megan Anderson 26 of 58 44% 15 of 42 11 of 16 0 of 0 19 of 48 7 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Holly Holm 12 of 17 70% 4 of 7 5 of 5 3 of 5 5 of 8 6 of 8 1 of 1
Megan Anderson 15 of 31 48% 9 of 24 6 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 21 7 of 10 0 of 0
2 Holly Holm 18 of 31 58% 15 of 27 2 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 16 1 of 1 10 of 14
Megan Anderson 7 of 19 36% 4 of 14 3 of 5 0 of 0 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Holly Holm 17 of 23 73% 8 of 13 5 of 6 4 of 4 7 of 11 1 of 1 9 of 11
Megan Anderson 4 of 8 50% 2 of 4 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0