UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs. Cruz · Jan 17, 2016 · Bantamweight · Completed
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs. Cruz Next Fight
Age 41
Height 5' 8"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 40
Height 5' 6"
Reach 67"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Dominick Cruz
3.91 SLpM
33.0% Str. Acc.
2.61 SApM
70.0% Str. Def.
2.82 TD Avg
42.0% TD Acc.
83.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - T.J. Dillashaw
5.09 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
3.47 SApM
62.0% Str. Def.
1.56 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
77.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Dominick Cruz - Fight History
LOSS vs Marlon Vera
KO (head kick) R4 2:17 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz · Aug 13, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marlon Vera 3 61 of 156 39% 63 of 160 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Dominick Cruz 0 92 of 249 36% 100 of 259 2 of 7 28% 0 0 1:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marlon Vera 1 9 of 33 27% 11 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dominick Cruz 0 21 of 61 34% 29 of 71 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:49
2 Marlon Vera 0 19 of 52 36% 19 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Cruz 0 32 of 78 41% 32 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Marlon Vera 0 21 of 49 42% 21 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Dominick Cruz 0 28 of 80 35% 28 of 80 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:16
4 Marlon Vera 2 12 of 22 54% 12 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Dominick Cruz 0 11 of 30 36% 11 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marlon Vera 61 of 156 39% 35 of 121 13 of 21 13 of 14 54 of 146 5 of 6 2 of 4
Dominick Cruz 92 of 249 36% 54 of 193 16 of 32 22 of 24 89 of 245 1 of 2 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marlon Vera 9 of 33 27% 4 of 25 2 of 4 3 of 4 9 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 2
Dominick Cruz 21 of 61 34% 12 of 49 1 of 4 8 of 8 19 of 59 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Marlon Vera 19 of 52 36% 9 of 40 6 of 8 4 of 4 18 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dominick Cruz 32 of 78 41% 17 of 55 7 of 14 8 of 9 31 of 77 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Marlon Vera 21 of 49 42% 14 of 39 3 of 6 4 of 4 17 of 45 4 of 4 0 of 0
Dominick Cruz 28 of 80 35% 21 of 68 2 of 6 5 of 6 28 of 79 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Marlon Vera 12 of 22 54% 8 of 17 2 of 3 2 of 2 10 of 20 0 of 0 2 of 2
Dominick Cruz 11 of 30 36% 4 of 21 6 of 8 1 of 1 11 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Marlon Vera vs. Dominick Cruz
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vera (-210), Cruz (+180)

Round 1
It’s main event time, with former champion Cruz looking to make one last run at the title in front of the home folks. In his way is Vera, who’s won three straight and has title aspirations of his own. Herb Dean will be the third man in the cage for the evening’s featured bout. Cruz comes out aggressive iwth a high kick followd by a combination. Cruz with a head kick followed by a straight right hand. Cruz kicks to the body as Vera remains calm. A hard low kick for Cruz finds the mark. Vera throws a front kick and Cruz catches it and throws him on the canvas. Vera is right back up. Vera counters a low kick with a left hand and drops Cruz. the former champ pops right back to his feet. Cruz pressures with a combination, then has a head kick blocked. Cruz is forcing the issue with combinations. Cruz feints a takedown and misses with an overhand. Vera misses a front kick and Cruz pressures with punches. Cruz lands a low kick. A front kick down the middle lands for Vera. Cruz again pushes forward with a combination followed by a head kick. Again, Cruz blitzes forward with punches. With less than a minute to go, Cruz executes a nicely-timed takedown. Cruz is in full guard, looking to create space for ground-and-pound. Vera threatens with a triangle and Cruz stands. The round ends with Cruz kicking at his opponent’s legs.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cruz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cruz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Cruz

Round 2
Vera opens with a high kick but Cruz blocks it. Cruz with another blitz of punches and he follows up with a low kick. Cruz with a low kick followed by a right hand. Cruz chips at the legs and then rushes forward with punches. Cruz stays busy with kicks and then counters as Vera moves in. Vera avoids another flurry of punches, but Cruz lands a nice right to the body. Cruz is mixing things up nicely, keeping Vera off balance. Cruz lands a leg kick, but Vera avoids the follow up combination. Another low kick lands for Cruz, but he can’t find the range on the ensuing flurry of punches. Cruz with a right to the body. He goes body-head and lands both. Vera finds the mark on a right hook. Cruz with a straight right, then a front kick down the middle and another right hand. Cruz shoots with 30 seconds, but Vera sprawls. Cruz lands a jab and Vera just misses a head kick before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cruz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cruz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Cruz

Round 3
Cruz kicks the leg and follows up with a punching combination. Another heavy leg kick draws a reaction from Vera. Cruz flurries and a counter from Vera backs him up. Cruz slips and lands a punch even while moving awkwardly. Vera moves forward and follows a double jab with a powerful right that drops Cruz. The ex champ is right back up, though. Cruz feints a takedown and eats a left hook for his efforts. Cruz’s movement may have slowed ever so slightly. Cruz shoots and Vera sprawls on it and tags Cruz with a left. Cruz lands a jab and moves forward with punches. Vera jabs in response. Cruz’s volume isn’t quite what it was in earlier rounds. He lands a left and Vera answers with a body kick. Vera stuffs a takedown against the fence and lands some elbows to the side of the head. Cruz gives up and they’re back at range. Vera lans a jab before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Vera

Round 4
Vera eludes Cruz’s punches and the stuffs a takedown. A right from Cruz makes Vera stumble back but it’s more of a slip than anything. Cruz with a right to the body. A stiff left jab catches Cruz coming forward and sits him down. Cruz is up in a hurry but it’s the third knockdown of the night for Vera. Once again, Cruz isn’t landing with the volume he did early.
Cruz darts in and then dips his head off to the side. Vera is waiting for it, and he catches Cruz with a perfectly-timed head kick on the chin. Cruz faceplants into the canvas as a result of the blow. Vera follows up with three mostly unnecessary ground shots before Dean dives in to save Cruz
, who looks like his nose is badly damaged. That’s four in a row for Vera, whose power was on display throughout the fight.

The Official Result
Marlon Vera def. Dominick Cruz via KO (Head Kick and Punches) R4 2:17
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 7, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Angelo picks Dominick Cruz but is on the fence. He notes Cruz's movement and striking defense make him hard to hit, and he can win by mixing in takedowns. However, Vera has devastating power and an iron chin, and Cruz may not be able to avoid damage for five rounds. Angelo compares to the Frankie Edgar fight where Edgar outstruck Vera and got takedowns but still got knocked out. He might change his pick.

"i think dominic can pull this off but make sure you watch our tuesday night breakdown because i'm so on the fence with this pic i might change it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Big Brady picks Marlon Vera to win by late knockout, likely in the fourth round. He notes that Vera is a slow starter but becomes a savage in the championship rounds, as seen against Rob Font. Cruz is 37, with declining durability and speed, and was dropped in his last fight. Vera lands the harder shots and has knockdown power. Brady expects Vera to eventually land something big and finish Cruz.

fourth round knockout
"i like marlon vera here to win i'll say fourth round knockout for marlon vera to get it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Marlon Vera. He emphasizes Vera's durability and tenacity in five-round fights, noting he often loses the first round but builds momentum. Cody believes Vera's leg kicks will stifle Cruz's movement and that judges favor damage over volume. He also suggests live betting Vera after he loses the first round.

Live betting Vera after round one
"i'm basically on the same lines i mean i like marlon vera i've always said that this guy's built for five round fights"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Daniel Levi picks Marlon Vera, emphasizing that Vera is a slow starter but excels in championship rounds. He notes Vera's iron chin, finishing ability (most finishes in bantamweight history), and the importance of calf kicks to slow Cruz's movement. Levi believes Cruz will have early success but fade as the fight progresses, and Vera will either finish or win a clear decision. He also mentions that Vera's boxing has improved under Jason Parillo.

Parlayed Vera with Bruno Silva at +102 odds. Also mentioned that Vera's line was -205 when he bet it, now -240.
"I'm taking Marlon Vera man, I just think that down the stretch third fourth fifth round once that movement starts to slow down once these calf kicks start to accumulate that's when is gonna be the time to go out …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2022 (fight day)
Dominick Cruz

The host is emphatic about Cruz, citing his wrestling advantage and high fight IQ. He notes that Cruz has landed 55 takedowns at a 43% clip since his WEC days, while Vera is not known for takedown defense. He believes people are overlooking Cruz's grappling and that the fight won't be a 25-minute kickboxing match. He also mentions Cruz's movement and ability to roll with kicks, referencing the Pedro Munoz fight where Cruz survived heavy leg kicks. He is confident that at plus money, Cruz is the value play.

Decision only Cruz at +150 (2 units); also mentions betting Cruz moneyline at +180 (2 units) and +200 (1 unit).
"i got in two units at plus 180 at the start of the week expecting money to come in on one of the greatest bantamweights of all time but the flashy and vicious nature of marlin vera seems to be …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Paul picks Marlon Vera, noting that while Cruz may out-volume him early, Vera lands the more impactful strikes. He points out that Cruz has been knocked down in his last four fights and is getting older. Paul thinks Vera's leg kicks will slow Cruz's mobility, and he prefers to bet Vera live after round one or two rather than at the -230 moneyline.

Live betting Vera after round one or two
"i like vera to win i think the minus 230 is a little bit steep"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

The host picks Marlon Vera by fourth-round submission (d'arce choke). He expects Cruz to win the first two rounds but fade as Vera's leg kicks and pressure accumulate. He predicts Vera will hurt Cruz, sprawl on a takedown, and choke him out. He emphasizes Vera's size and reach advantages, and notes Cruz's injury history and lack of power compared to other Vera opponents.

fourth round submission (d'arce choke)
"i'm going to be going with marlon vera getting this one done by tko in the fourth round... i'm actually going to go dash choke"
WIN vs Pedro Munhoz
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Cruz 1 74 of 170 43% 79 of 175 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Pedro Munhoz 0 103 of 274 37% 105 of 276 1 of 9 11% 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Cruz 1 21 of 45 46% 26 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Pedro Munhoz 0 25 of 51 49% 25 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:03
2 Dominick Cruz 0 27 of 57 47% 27 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 35 of 113 30% 35 of 113 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Dominick Cruz 0 26 of 68 38% 26 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 43 of 110 39% 45 of 112 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Cruz 74 of 170 43% 45 of 128 10 of 16 19 of 26 73 of 168 1 of 2 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 103 of 274 37% 79 of 240 13 of 23 11 of 11 100 of 270 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Cruz 21 of 45 46% 14 of 33 2 of 5 5 of 7 20 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 25 of 51 49% 18 of 42 5 of 7 2 of 2 23 of 49 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Dominick Cruz 27 of 57 47% 12 of 39 5 of 5 10 of 13 27 of 56 0 of 1 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 35 of 113 30% 30 of 105 2 of 5 3 of 3 34 of 111 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Dominick Cruz 26 of 68 38% 19 of 56 3 of 6 4 of 6 26 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 43 of 110 39% 31 of 93 6 of 11 6 of 6 43 of 110 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Big Brady picks Dominick Cruz by decision, but with low confidence. He notes that Cruz has excellent striking defense (72%) and movement, and the bigger cage favors his footwork. Munoz is dangerous with leg kicks and submissions, but he absorbs a lot of strikes. Brady believes Cruz can stay on the outside and outpoint Munoz, but Munoz's power and grappling threat make this a close fight.

"i will pick him to win by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Daniel Levi picks Dominick Cruz to win by decision, citing Munhoz's struggles against point fighters. He notes that Munhoz gets hit frequently (six times per minute) and has lost to fighters like John Dodson and Frankie Edgar who use movement. Levi believes Cruz's footwork and elusiveness will frustrate Munhoz, and the larger octagon at T-Mobile gives Cruz more room. He acknowledges Munhoz's power and calf kicks but thinks Cruz can neutralize them. Levi sees Cruz winning a clear decision.

"give me dominic cruz to upset pedro munoz here saturday night"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

The MMA Guru picks Dominick Cruz to win by decision (29-28). He believes Cruz's footwork and range management will be problematic for Munhoz, who struggles against fighters who stay on the outside. He notes the bigger cage favors Cruz and that Munhoz has faded in recent fights.

29-28 decision
"i'm gonna go with dominic cruz i think his footwork is going to be a problem for pedro munoz"
WIN vs Casey Kenney
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Mar 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Cruz 0 89 of 202 44% 115 of 229 2 of 9 22% 0 0 2:07
Casey Kenney 0 74 of 193 38% 74 of 193 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Cruz 0 26 of 56 46% 26 of 56 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Casey Kenney 0 23 of 63 36% 23 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
2 Dominick Cruz 0 36 of 82 43% 36 of 82 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Casey Kenney 0 33 of 73 45% 33 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
3 Dominick Cruz 0 27 of 64 42% 53 of 91 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:07
Casey Kenney 0 18 of 57 31% 18 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Cruz 89 of 202 44% 51 of 151 24 of 35 14 of 16 85 of 197 4 of 4 0 of 1
Casey Kenney 74 of 193 38% 41 of 148 10 of 19 23 of 26 72 of 191 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Cruz 26 of 56 46% 10 of 29 7 of 16 9 of 11 26 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Casey Kenney 23 of 63 36% 9 of 46 6 of 7 8 of 10 22 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Dominick Cruz 36 of 82 43% 24 of 70 8 of 8 4 of 4 36 of 82 0 of 0 0 of 0
Casey Kenney 33 of 73 45% 21 of 55 1 of 6 11 of 12 33 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Dominick Cruz 27 of 64 42% 17 of 52 9 of 11 1 of 1 23 of 59 4 of 4 0 of 1
Casey Kenney 18 of 57 31% 11 of 47 3 of 6 4 of 4 17 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Big Brady picks Dominick Cruz as an underdog, citing Cruz's wrestling advantage and Kenney's 56% takedown defense. He notes Cruz has not won since 2016 but faced elite competition, while Kenney has been taken down frequently. He predicts a decision win but admits he doesn't feel great about it.

"i'm gonna side with the dog of dominick cruz here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Mar 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Casey Kenney

Daniel leans with Casey Kenney, citing Kenney's leg kicks from southpaw to slow Cruz's movement and his wrestling to keep the fight standing. He acknowledges Cruz's in-fight adjustments but believes Kenney's youth and style will edge a decision.

"i'm slightly leaning with casey kenny though man my gut just tells me that he... stylistically speaking his wrestling is good enough to keep it standing and he's got the kicks to slow down that movement of dominic cruz"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Cruz's footwork and experience could trouble Kenney, who may struggle to land his body kicks. The host notes Cruz's durability and wrestling background, but is not confident enough to bet. He predicts Cruz wins by decision.

"i got dominique cruzier to win this fight for your decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

The MMA Guru picks Dominick Cruz as an underdog. He argues Cruz had a full camp and hand-picked Kenney, and that people judge him unfairly based on the short-notice Cejudo fight. He believes Cruz's footwork, size, and experience will lead to a 30-27 unanimous decision, and that Cruz can even get takedowns.

"i'm going with dominick cruz man i am over casey kenny this is another underdog that i'm picking on the card"
LOSS vs Henry Cejudo
TKO (knee and punches) R2 4:58 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Henry Cejudo 1 53 of 83 63% 56 of 86 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:14
Dominick Cruz 0 33 of 81 40% 33 of 81 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Henry Cejudo 0 19 of 29 65% 21 of 31 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:08
Dominick Cruz 0 14 of 29 48% 14 of 29 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Henry Cejudo 1 34 of 54 62% 35 of 55 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:06
Dominick Cruz 0 19 of 52 36% 19 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Henry Cejudo 53 of 83 63% 24 of 50 6 of 8 23 of 25 44 of 70 0 of 2 9 of 11
Dominick Cruz 33 of 81 40% 15 of 58 8 of 11 10 of 12 31 of 78 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Henry Cejudo 19 of 29 65% 3 of 10 2 of 3 14 of 16 18 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
Dominick Cruz 14 of 29 48% 4 of 16 6 of 7 4 of 6 14 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Henry Cejudo 34 of 54 62% 21 of 40 4 of 5 9 of 9 26 of 42 0 of 2 8 of 10
Dominick Cruz 19 of 52 36% 11 of 42 2 of 4 6 of 6 17 of 49 2 of 3 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Big Brady picks Dominick Cruz as an underdog, citing his movement, speed, volume, and takedown defense. He believes Cruz can outpoint Cejudo if he avoids Cejudo's power and the fight stays on the feet. He sees value in Cruz at plus 185 and plans to bet it, predicting a close decision win.

Cruz by decision; Cruz plus 185; will bet that
"I'm going to be taking Dominic Cruz here. ... I think he's going to be the more active fighter as long as he avoids that huge right hand from Cejudo."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Henry Cejudo

Daniel Levi is extremely confident in Henry Cejudo, calling him an all-time great and dismissing Cruz's chances. He highlights Cejudo's wins over DJ, TJ, and Moraes, and his championship adjustments. Levi believes Cruz is in denial, hasn't evolved, and will be finished within two rounds, noting that Cejudo will pounce if he drops Cruz, unlike Cody Garbrandt.

finishes Cruz within two rounds
"Henry cejudo will put down many crews down within two rounds and he's gonna be the first guy to stop him with strikes"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Matt picks Cruz as an underdog, citing his footwork, height advantage, and ability to frustrate Cejudo. He questions Cejudo's striking entries and recovery from shoulder surgery, and believes Cruz can win a decision. He sees value at plus money but is not betting due to other viable dogs on the card.

Dominick Cruz by decision
"I'm picking Dominick Cruz to win by a decision the bet would be Dominick Cruz if he can get him at plus 200"
LOSS vs Cody Garbrandt
Decision (unanimous) (48–46, 48–47, 48–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · Dec 30, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cody Garbrandt 0 88 of 291 30% 95 of 298 0 of 7 0% 0 0 0:01
Dominick Cruz 2 68 of 195 34% 71 of 198 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cody Garbrandt 0 20 of 50 40% 20 of 50 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Dominick Cruz 0 12 of 38 31% 12 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:09
2 Cody Garbrandt 0 19 of 60 31% 19 of 60 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Dominick Cruz 0 16 of 45 35% 16 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Cody Garbrandt 0 20 of 70 28% 20 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Dominick Cruz 0 17 of 46 36% 17 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
4 Cody Garbrandt 0 17 of 54 31% 17 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Cruz 2 15 of 47 31% 16 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
5 Cody Garbrandt 0 12 of 57 21% 19 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Dominick Cruz 0 8 of 19 42% 10 of 21 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cody Garbrandt 88 of 291 30% 58 of 250 9 of 14 21 of 27 88 of 291 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Cruz 68 of 195 34% 47 of 164 11 of 17 10 of 14 66 of 190 2 of 4 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cody Garbrandt 20 of 50 40% 9 of 37 4 of 4 7 of 9 20 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Cruz 12 of 38 31% 5 of 30 3 of 4 4 of 4 11 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Cody Garbrandt 19 of 60 31% 11 of 47 2 of 6 6 of 7 19 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Cruz 16 of 45 35% 9 of 33 6 of 10 1 of 2 16 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Cody Garbrandt 20 of 70 28% 16 of 65 1 of 1 3 of 4 20 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Cruz 17 of 46 36% 16 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 2 16 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Cody Garbrandt 17 of 54 31% 15 of 50 1 of 1 1 of 3 17 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Cruz 15 of 47 31% 11 of 41 0 of 1 4 of 5 15 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 1
5 Cody Garbrandt 12 of 57 21% 7 of 51 1 of 2 4 of 4 12 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Cruz 8 of 19 42% 6 of 17 1 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 17 0 of 2 0 of 0
WIN vs Urijah Faber
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · Jun 04, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Cruz 1 87 of 261 33% 99 of 275 3 of 7 42% 0 1 3:24
Urijah Faber 0 34 of 159 21% 49 of 174 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Cruz 0 10 of 24 41% 19 of 34 1 of 3 33% 0 1 1:53
Urijah Faber 0 4 of 13 30% 15 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:10
2 Dominick Cruz 1 21 of 58 36% 23 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Urijah Faber 0 6 of 29 20% 6 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Dominick Cruz 0 21 of 65 32% 21 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Urijah Faber 0 10 of 40 25% 10 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Dominick Cruz 0 18 of 57 31% 18 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Urijah Faber 0 7 of 44 15% 7 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
5 Dominick Cruz 0 17 of 57 29% 18 of 59 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:19
Urijah Faber 0 7 of 33 21% 11 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Cruz 87 of 261 33% 62 of 223 8 of 19 17 of 19 77 of 243 6 of 10 4 of 8
Urijah Faber 34 of 159 21% 26 of 142 6 of 15 2 of 2 25 of 147 6 of 9 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Cruz 10 of 24 41% 5 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 3 8 of 22 2 of 2 0 of 0
Urijah Faber 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dominick Cruz 21 of 58 36% 13 of 47 2 of 4 6 of 7 19 of 54 0 of 0 2 of 4
Urijah Faber 6 of 29 20% 5 of 26 0 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 27 1 of 1 1 of 1
3 Dominick Cruz 21 of 65 32% 16 of 55 1 of 5 4 of 5 19 of 61 2 of 4 0 of 0
Urijah Faber 10 of 40 25% 6 of 34 4 of 6 0 of 0 8 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 0
4 Dominick Cruz 18 of 57 31% 14 of 51 2 of 4 2 of 2 16 of 51 0 of 2 2 of 4
Urijah Faber 7 of 44 15% 5 of 40 1 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Dominick Cruz 17 of 57 29% 14 of 51 1 of 4 2 of 2 15 of 55 2 of 2 0 of 0
Urijah Faber 7 of 33 21% 6 of 29 1 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 29 0 of 2 2 of 2
Decision (split) (48–47, 46–49, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs. Cruz · Jan 17, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Cruz 0 109 of 408 26% 130 of 430 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:11
T.J. Dillashaw 0 112 of 302 37% 122 of 312 4 of 11 36% 0 0 0:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Cruz 0 19 of 87 21% 26 of 94 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:12
T.J. Dillashaw 0 21 of 62 33% 21 of 62 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:07
2 Dominick Cruz 0 16 of 79 20% 17 of 80 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
T.J. Dillashaw 0 17 of 52 32% 18 of 53 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:10
3 Dominick Cruz 0 19 of 77 24% 19 of 77 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
T.J. Dillashaw 0 19 of 54 35% 19 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:13
4 Dominick Cruz 0 22 of 70 31% 35 of 84 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
T.J. Dillashaw 0 25 of 58 43% 34 of 67 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
5 Dominick Cruz 0 33 of 95 34% 33 of 95 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
T.J. Dillashaw 0 30 of 76 39% 30 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Cruz 109 of 408 26% 64 of 343 22 of 39 23 of 26 102 of 394 6 of 13 1 of 1
T.J. Dillashaw 112 of 302 37% 97 of 282 9 of 14 6 of 6 107 of 294 5 of 6 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Cruz 19 of 87 21% 9 of 73 7 of 11 3 of 3 19 of 83 0 of 4 0 of 0
T.J. Dillashaw 21 of 62 33% 17 of 56 2 of 4 2 of 2 19 of 59 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dominick Cruz 16 of 79 20% 11 of 73 1 of 1 4 of 5 16 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
T.J. Dillashaw 17 of 52 32% 14 of 49 2 of 2 1 of 1 16 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 1
3 Dominick Cruz 19 of 77 24% 9 of 65 5 of 7 5 of 5 18 of 76 1 of 1 0 of 0
T.J. Dillashaw 19 of 54 35% 17 of 52 2 of 2 0 of 0 18 of 52 1 of 1 0 of 1
4 Dominick Cruz 22 of 70 31% 15 of 58 2 of 7 5 of 5 17 of 63 4 of 6 1 of 1
T.J. Dillashaw 25 of 58 43% 21 of 52 1 of 3 3 of 3 24 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Dominick Cruz 33 of 95 34% 20 of 74 7 of 13 6 of 8 32 of 93 1 of 2 0 of 0
T.J. Dillashaw 30 of 76 39% 28 of 73 2 of 3 0 of 0 30 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
KO (punches) R1 1:01 · UFC 178: Johnson vs. Cariaso · Sep 27, 2014
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Cruz 0 26 of 35 74% 26 of 35 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:23
Takeya Mizugaki 0 2 of 10 20% 3 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Cruz 0 26 of 35 74% 26 of 35 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:23
Takeya Mizugaki 0 2 of 10 20% 3 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Cruz 26 of 35 74% 26 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 22 of 26
Takeya Mizugaki 2 of 10 20% 2 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Cruz 26 of 35 74% 26 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 22 of 26
Takeya Mizugaki 2 of 10 20% 2 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
T.J. Dillashaw - Fight History
TKO (punches) R2 3:44 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aljamain Sterling 0 72 of 93 77% 148 of 181 5 of 8 62% 2 0 7:06
T.J. Dillashaw 0 8 of 26 30% 13 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aljamain Sterling 0 30 of 45 66% 80 of 103 3 of 4 75% 1 0 4:20
T.J. Dillashaw 0 3 of 11 27% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Aljamain Sterling 0 42 of 48 87% 68 of 78 2 of 4 50% 1 0 2:46
T.J. Dillashaw 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aljamain Sterling 72 of 93 77% 56 of 75 13 of 15 3 of 3 17 of 30 2 of 4 53 of 59
T.J. Dillashaw 8 of 26 30% 3 of 20 2 of 2 3 of 4 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aljamain Sterling 30 of 45 66% 24 of 38 5 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 15 1 of 3 21 of 27
T.J. Dillashaw 3 of 11 27% 0 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Aljamain Sterling 42 of 48 87% 32 of 37 8 of 9 2 of 2 9 of 15 1 of 1 32 of 32
T.J. Dillashaw 5 of 15 33% 3 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Bantamweight Title Fight: Aljamain Sterling vs. T.J. Dillashaw
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sterling (-175), Dillashaw (+150)

Round 1
The co-main event kicks off under the watchful eye of referee Marc Goddard. They exchange kicks as Sterling changes stances. Tons of movement early on, and Sterling catches a kick which he uses to spin Dillashaw to the canvas. Sterling takes Dillashaw’s back for a moment, but they spin through and Sterling lands in half guard. Dillashaw appears to be in pain from something. Sterling moves to mount, then locks up a body triangle from the top. Dillashaw’s left arm or shoulder may be the problem. Sterling lands a couple of huge right hands from the top, then takes Dillashaw’s back. Sterling working for a choke, then gives it up to move back to mount. Dillashaw pops back up and scrambles, but Sterling is all over him, regaining back control. Under two minutes left and Sterling has Dillashaw in a body triangle from back mount. Sterling pelts the ex-champ with punches that curl around the front of Dillashaw’s face. Dillashaw escapes to his feet and his left arm is clearly compromised. Sterling drops for a takedown with 30 seconds left, driving Dillashaw to the fence. He peels Dillashaw away from the fence and dumps him on the canvas. Dillashaw pops back up right before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Sterling
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-8 Sterling
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-8 Sterling

Round 2
Dillashaw’s shoulder is popped back in between rounds, and they’re good to go for another round at least. Sterling throws low kicks to open the round as Dillashaw returns fire, mostly with his right hand. Sterling drops levels for an easy double-leg takedown in the middle of the Octagon. Sterling sets up in Dillashaw’s half-guard. Sterling tries to move to side control, dropping elbows as he does. Dillashaw drives back to his feet, but is ensnared in a D’Arce choke as he does. Dillashaw escapes the hold, and his arm is once again all the way out of the socket, hanging limply at his side. The champ seems unsure of what to do, but takes Dillashaw down again. Sterling moves to mount. Dillashaw turns his back and goes belly-down. Sterling smashes Dillashaw with a couple of brutal elbows, then several punches, and Dillashaw is doing next to nothing to defend himself. Ref Goddard steps in and mercifully calls a stop to the mauling.

The Official Result
Aljamain Sterling def. T.J. Dillashaw R2 3:44 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2022 (6 days before fight)
T.J. Dillashaw

Angelo picks T.J. Dillashaw, surprised he is an underdog. He questions how Sterling can take Dillashaw down, noting only two people have ever done it. He praises Dillashaw's pace, pressure, and toughness, referencing the Sandhagen fight. He has a moneyline bet on Dillashaw at +150.

Moneyline bet at +150
"I'm going TJ Dillashaw I got that moneyline bet at plus 150"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
T.J. Dillashaw

Big Brady picks Dillashaw to win by decision, despite concerns about his age (36) and decline. He believes stylistically it's a great matchup for Dillashaw: his takedown defense (86%) and get-up game are elite, and Sterling has only 30% takedown accuracy. He expects Dillashaw's pressure and cardio to overwhelm Sterling in the later rounds, winning the third, fourth, and fifth.

"I'm going to take dylasha to win by decision I think early on super competitive I think Sterling can even take a round or two but I think as the fight goes on I think the pressure is going to …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
T.J. Dillashaw

Cody thinks Sterling is the superior fighter overall but believes Dillashaw is live as an underdog. He notes Sterling's cardio fades in later rounds, while Dillashaw historically excels in rounds 4 and 5. Cody points out that Dillashaw has excellent takedown defense and wrestling, and that Sterling's takedowns may not hold him down. He sees Dillashaw winning the striking exchanges and possibly capitalizing on Sterling's fatigue.

"I just kind of feel like for an underdog plus money is not taking anything away for algebra and Sterling it's just like I think he's live in this spot to get upset so uh sign me up for some …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
T.J. Dillashaw

Connor picks Dillashaw because he believes Dillashaw's wrestling and grappling defense will neutralize Sterling's best weapons. He notes that Dillashaw has never been held down or submitted, and that Sterling tends to gas when he can't impose his grappling. He also points out that Dillashaw's pressure and ability to take easy targets will wear on Sterling, similar to how Munoz gave him trouble.

"I'm gonna pick TJ Dillashaw. It feels too right for the fights he wins and the fight Sterling loses."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

Daniel Levi leans toward Aljamain Sterling to defend his belt, but is not confident. He respects Sterling's back control and jiu-jitsu, noting that even Petr Yan couldn't escape his backpack. However, he questions Sterling's durability and cardio, thinking he can wilt in later rounds. Levi also notes that T.J. Dillashaw is 37, coming off an ACL tear and a long layoff, and is no longer in his prime. He thinks Sterling's youth and confidence in his strengths give him the edge, but he has no bet on this fight because he doesn't have a strong read.

"I'm a lean algeman to to make it happen to steal some of these rounds but not confident I don't have a bet on this fight for a reason."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
T.J. Dillashaw

Dillashaw has solid wrestling and takedown defense to keep the fight standing. He is the better striker and can counter Sterling's entries. Sterling's best path is grappling, but Dillashaw's movement and pivots make him hard to catch. Dillashaw by decision at +300 or moneyline at +150 are both appealing.

Dillashaw by decision at +300; Dillashaw by KO at +500
"I love the underdog price here on the snake TJ Dillashaw I think that he has the perfect stylistic approach here to deal with al-jamin Sterling"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
T.J. Dillashaw

Paul struggles to get to Sterling at -175, acknowledging Sterling's talent but questioning whether his grappling will work on Dillashaw. He notes Dillashaw's takedown defense historically, and that Sterling may not be able to hold him down. Paul mentions Dillashaw's strong later rounds and volume striking. He is picking Dillashaw for the show but is unsure about betting, possibly looking at round props.

round 4 or round 5 props (maybe)
"for the purpose of the show I'm picking delish uh don't know if I'm gonna get there from a betting perspective"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

The MMA Guru picks Aljamain Sterling over T.J. Dillashaw by submission. He argues Sterling is underrated, citing his wins over Yan, Sandhagen, and Munoz. He believes Dillashaw gives up his back and that Sterling will hurt him on the feet before securing a rear-naked choke in the second round.

rear naked choke late second round
"I'm gonna go with Al Jermaine Sterling over TJ Dillashaw"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
T.J. Dillashaw

Zane also picks Dillashaw, citing that Dillashaw is a uniquely bad matchup for Sterling due to his ability to stuff takedowns and avoid submission. He notes that Sterling's path to victory is narrow and relies on early chaos, but Dillashaw's experience and durability make him the safer bet. He also mentions that Dillashaw's wrestling-heavy approach against Sandhagen shows he can adapt.

"I gotta pick Dillashaw. It's weird because I would pick Yan over Dillashaw, but I think Dillashaw is a uniquely bad matchup for Sterling."
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · Jul 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
T.J. Dillashaw 0 128 of 281 45% 171 of 331 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 110 of 268 41% 169 of 332 2 of 19 10% 0 0 8:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 T.J. Dillashaw 0 15 of 25 60% 28 of 42 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 13 of 26 50% 36 of 54 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:24
2 T.J. Dillashaw 0 26 of 55 47% 37 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 12 of 41 29% 20 of 49 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:18
3 T.J. Dillashaw 0 23 of 53 43% 36 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 26 of 52 50% 34 of 60 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:00
4 T.J. Dillashaw 0 26 of 65 40% 28 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 19 of 61 31% 35 of 77 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:41
5 T.J. Dillashaw 0 38 of 83 45% 42 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 40 of 88 45% 44 of 92 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
T.J. Dillashaw 128 of 281 45% 110 of 258 10 of 14 8 of 9 126 of 278 2 of 2 0 of 1
Cory Sandhagen 110 of 268 41% 59 of 208 10 of 14 41 of 46 98 of 245 8 of 14 4 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 T.J. Dillashaw 15 of 25 60% 9 of 16 1 of 3 5 of 6 15 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 1
Cory Sandhagen 13 of 26 50% 9 of 20 1 of 2 3 of 4 8 of 17 1 of 1 4 of 8
2 T.J. Dillashaw 26 of 55 47% 22 of 51 2 of 2 2 of 2 26 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 12 of 41 29% 6 of 34 2 of 3 4 of 4 10 of 38 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 T.J. Dillashaw 23 of 53 43% 20 of 50 2 of 2 1 of 1 22 of 52 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 26 of 52 50% 12 of 36 2 of 3 12 of 13 23 of 45 3 of 6 0 of 1
4 T.J. Dillashaw 26 of 65 40% 25 of 63 1 of 2 0 of 0 26 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 19 of 61 31% 7 of 46 0 of 0 12 of 15 19 of 60 0 of 1 0 of 0
5 T.J. Dillashaw 38 of 83 45% 34 of 78 4 of 5 0 of 0 37 of 82 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 40 of 88 45% 25 of 72 5 of 6 10 of 10 38 of 85 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
T.J. Dillashaw

Angelo picks T.J. Dillashaw because he believes Dillashaw has better footwork, wrestling, and power. He notes that Dillashaw was a masterclass before the suspension and that the layoff may have allowed him to train the entire time. He has Dillashaw in his DraftKings lineup and has placed a moneyline bet. He likes the more/more on monkey knife fight, expecting an active fight that goes the distance.

moneyline bet on T.J. Dillashaw; more/more on monkey knife fight
"i like tj dilshaw to win this fight tj dillashaw is in my lineup i did a money line bet on tj dillashaw"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Big Brady picks Cory Sandhagen due to Sandhagen's momentum, youth, and activity, while T.J. Dillashaw is coming off a 2.5-year layoff and PED suspension at age 35. He notes Sandhagen's significant size advantage (5 inches height, 2 inches reach) and high striking volume (6.85 sig strikes/min). He acknowledges Dillashaw's path via wrestling but questions his form post-suspension. He expects a competitive fight but leans Sandhagen by decision.

"I'll take san hagen to win by decision very intriguing fight... can't pick dillashaw here i can't do it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Cody picks Sandhagen, citing durability and cardio advantages. He notes Sandhagen has never been knocked out and has a great gas tank, while Dillashaw has durability concerns and a long layoff. He expects Sandhagen's volume to wear down Dillashaw over five rounds. He acknowledges the price is a bit high but still picks Sandhagen.

"i would think san hagen i would think this thing's scheduled for five it's probably going to three four or five if not the distance but i would think at some point the volume from san hagan starts to wear …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Daniel Levi picks Cory Sandhagen to win, citing Sandhagen's length, size, and unpredictability as key advantages. He notes that Sandhagen is the 2021 version of Dillashaw's style but taller and longer, and that Dillashaw's chin may be suspect after the Cejudo knockout. Levi acknowledges Dillashaw's wrestling but doubts he will use it effectively, as he hasn't landed a takedown in years. He predicts Sandhagen will knock out Dillashaw, emphasizing that Sandhagen capitalizes on finishes unlike other fighters.

predicts Sandhagen by knockout
"i think corey sang comes out here knocks out tj dillashaw"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Jacob picks Cory Sandhagen because he thinks Sandhagen is the true talent and will find a way to finish T.J. Dillashaw. He notes that Dillashaw was almost finished by Cody Garbrandt and that Sandhagen is big, sharp, and uses his length well. He has Sandhagen in his DraftKings lineup but acknowledges that Dillashaw at $7,400 is incredible value. He expects a more/more fight.

"corsine hagen i think is the true tj honestly was in my lineup to start at 7 400 with his talent"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
T.J. Dillashaw

The host leans toward T.J. Dillashaw as a dog, citing his wrestling advantage and experience. He believes Dillashaw can use takedowns to neutralize Sandhagen's striking. He notes Sandhagen's durability and finishing ability but thinks Dillashaw's grappling will be key. He likes Dillashaw by decision at +420.

Dillashaw by decision +420; Under 3.5 rounds -125 (mentioned as a possibility)
"i am leaning with the dog here with uh tj dillashaw i see his land ballooning up a little bit now he's at plus 165"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Paul also picks Sandhagen, agreeing with Cody. He mentions the price is close to correct but has a concern about Sandhagen's takedown defense after the Sterling loss. He notes Dillashaw's layoff and weight cut issues. He does not have cash on it but will investigate at weigh-ins.

over 3.5 rounds +140
"i'm picking sand hag in here i don't have any cash on it though we'll we'll investigate further at the weigh-ins"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

The Guru picks Sandhagen due to his recent intensity and activity, contrasting with Dillashaw's 2.5-year layoff and age. He believes Sandhagen's length and kicking game, especially the question mark kick, will be key. He notes Dillashaw's chinny history and defensive habits that could be exploited. He predicts a first-round TKO via question mark kick, with Sandhagen setting it up with front kicks and inside leg kicks.

first round TKO via question mark kick
"i'm going to go with corey sandhagen first round tko question mark kicked it ahead"
LOSS vs Henry Cejudo
TKO (punches) R1 0:32 · UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · Jan 19, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Henry Cejudo 1 18 of 23 78% 18 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
T.J. Dillashaw 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Henry Cejudo 1 18 of 23 78% 18 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
T.J. Dillashaw 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Henry Cejudo 18 of 23 78% 17 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 17
T.J. Dillashaw 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Henry Cejudo 18 of 23 78% 17 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 17
T.J. Dillashaw 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
KO (knee and punches) R1 4:10 · UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 · Aug 04, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
T.J. Dillashaw 2 45 of 72 62% 51 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Cody Garbrandt 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 T.J. Dillashaw 2 45 of 72 62% 51 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Cody Garbrandt 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
T.J. Dillashaw 45 of 72 62% 37 of 60 5 of 6 3 of 6 16 of 38 15 of 16 14 of 18
Cody Garbrandt 17 of 43 39% 14 of 37 2 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 39 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 T.J. Dillashaw 45 of 72 62% 37 of 60 5 of 6 3 of 6 16 of 38 15 of 16 14 of 18
Cody Garbrandt 17 of 43 39% 14 of 37 2 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 39 3 of 4 0 of 0
TKO (punches) R2 2:41 · UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · Nov 04, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
T.J. Dillashaw 1 18 of 53 33% 19 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Cody Garbrandt 2 20 of 81 24% 23 of 85 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 T.J. Dillashaw 1 15 of 42 35% 16 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Cody Garbrandt 0 9 of 49 18% 9 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 T.J. Dillashaw 0 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cody Garbrandt 2 11 of 32 34% 14 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
T.J. Dillashaw 18 of 53 33% 16 of 47 2 of 5 0 of 1 17 of 50 0 of 0 1 of 3
Cody Garbrandt 20 of 81 24% 12 of 49 1 of 12 7 of 20 14 of 74 0 of 0 6 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 T.J. Dillashaw 15 of 42 35% 13 of 37 2 of 4 0 of 1 14 of 39 0 of 0 1 of 3
Cody Garbrandt 9 of 49 18% 3 of 27 1 of 9 5 of 13 9 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 T.J. Dillashaw 3 of 11 27% 3 of 10 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Garbrandt 11 of 32 34% 9 of 22 0 of 3 2 of 7 5 of 25 0 of 0 6 of 7
WIN vs John Lineker
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · Dec 30, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
T.J. Dillashaw 0 71 of 119 59% 177 of 249 5 of 6 83% 1 0 6:53
John Lineker 0 38 of 90 42% 51 of 107 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 T.J. Dillashaw 0 13 of 30 43% 37 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:34
John Lineker 0 12 of 40 30% 12 of 40 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:05
2 T.J. Dillashaw 0 37 of 51 72% 98 of 131 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:46
John Lineker 0 9 of 17 52% 19 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 T.J. Dillashaw 0 21 of 38 55% 42 of 62 2 of 3 66% 1 0 1:33
John Lineker 0 17 of 33 51% 20 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
T.J. Dillashaw 71 of 119 59% 53 of 98 10 of 12 8 of 9 25 of 59 0 of 0 46 of 60
John Lineker 38 of 90 42% 18 of 53 19 of 36 1 of 1 33 of 81 0 of 3 5 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 T.J. Dillashaw 13 of 30 43% 6 of 21 4 of 5 3 of 4 11 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 6
John Lineker 12 of 40 30% 6 of 28 6 of 12 0 of 0 11 of 35 0 of 3 1 of 2
2 T.J. Dillashaw 37 of 51 72% 33 of 47 4 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 33 of 42
John Lineker 9 of 17 52% 6 of 12 2 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 13 0 of 0 4 of 4
3 T.J. Dillashaw 21 of 38 55% 14 of 30 2 of 3 5 of 5 10 of 26 0 of 0 11 of 12
John Lineker 17 of 33 51% 6 of 13 11 of 20 0 of 0 17 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 200: Tate vs. Nunes · Jul 09, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
T.J. Dillashaw 0 64 of 195 32% 72 of 205 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:48
Raphael Assunção 0 49 of 140 35% 52 of 143 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 T.J. Dillashaw 0 18 of 72 25% 23 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Raphael Assunção 0 14 of 45 31% 14 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 T.J. Dillashaw 0 22 of 62 35% 23 of 63 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:07
Raphael Assunção 0 13 of 42 30% 13 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
3 T.J. Dillashaw 0 24 of 61 39% 26 of 64 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:24
Raphael Assunção 0 22 of 53 41% 25 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
T.J. Dillashaw 64 of 195 32% 33 of 152 10 of 16 21 of 27 61 of 190 2 of 4 1 of 1
Raphael Assunção 49 of 140 35% 25 of 101 11 of 17 13 of 22 46 of 128 3 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 T.J. Dillashaw 18 of 72 25% 10 of 58 2 of 6 6 of 8 16 of 69 2 of 3 0 of 0
Raphael Assunção 14 of 45 31% 5 of 34 3 of 4 6 of 7 12 of 36 2 of 9 0 of 0
2 T.J. Dillashaw 22 of 62 35% 14 of 49 1 of 2 7 of 11 21 of 60 0 of 1 1 of 1
Raphael Assunção 13 of 42 30% 7 of 29 3 of 6 3 of 7 12 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 T.J. Dillashaw 24 of 61 39% 9 of 45 7 of 8 8 of 8 24 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raphael Assunção 22 of 53 41% 13 of 38 5 of 7 4 of 8 22 of 51 0 of 2 0 of 0
LOSS vs Dominick Cruz
Decision (split) (48–47, 46–49, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs. Cruz · Jan 17, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Cruz 0 109 of 408 26% 130 of 430 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:11
T.J. Dillashaw 0 112 of 302 37% 122 of 312 4 of 11 36% 0 0 0:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Cruz 0 19 of 87 21% 26 of 94 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:12
T.J. Dillashaw 0 21 of 62 33% 21 of 62 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:07
2 Dominick Cruz 0 16 of 79 20% 17 of 80 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
T.J. Dillashaw 0 17 of 52 32% 18 of 53 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:10
3 Dominick Cruz 0 19 of 77 24% 19 of 77 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
T.J. Dillashaw 0 19 of 54 35% 19 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:13
4 Dominick Cruz 0 22 of 70 31% 35 of 84 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
T.J. Dillashaw 0 25 of 58 43% 34 of 67 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
5 Dominick Cruz 0 33 of 95 34% 33 of 95 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
T.J. Dillashaw 0 30 of 76 39% 30 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Cruz 109 of 408 26% 64 of 343 22 of 39 23 of 26 102 of 394 6 of 13 1 of 1
T.J. Dillashaw 112 of 302 37% 97 of 282 9 of 14 6 of 6 107 of 294 5 of 6 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Cruz 19 of 87 21% 9 of 73 7 of 11 3 of 3 19 of 83 0 of 4 0 of 0
T.J. Dillashaw 21 of 62 33% 17 of 56 2 of 4 2 of 2 19 of 59 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dominick Cruz 16 of 79 20% 11 of 73 1 of 1 4 of 5 16 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
T.J. Dillashaw 17 of 52 32% 14 of 49 2 of 2 1 of 1 16 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 1
3 Dominick Cruz 19 of 77 24% 9 of 65 5 of 7 5 of 5 18 of 76 1 of 1 0 of 0
T.J. Dillashaw 19 of 54 35% 17 of 52 2 of 2 0 of 0 18 of 52 1 of 1 0 of 1
4 Dominick Cruz 22 of 70 31% 15 of 58 2 of 7 5 of 5 17 of 63 4 of 6 1 of 1
T.J. Dillashaw 25 of 58 43% 21 of 52 1 of 3 3 of 3 24 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Dominick Cruz 33 of 95 34% 20 of 74 7 of 13 6 of 8 32 of 93 1 of 2 0 of 0
T.J. Dillashaw 30 of 76 39% 28 of 73 2 of 3 0 of 0 30 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0