Career Averages - Robbie Lawler
Career Averages - Carlos Condit
Robbie Lawler - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Lawler | 1 | 8 of 10 | 80% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robbie Lawler | 1 | 8 of 10 | 80% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Lawler | 8 of 10 | 80% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Niko Price | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robbie Lawler | 8 of 10 | 80% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Niko Price | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Price but is hesitant, calling it a tricky betting spot. He notes Price is younger and less beat up, with similar wild style to Lawler. Lawler is declining and likely to retire. He expects a fun slugfest but is unsure about a finish, and fears the round line might be a trap. He does not place a bet.
Big Brady leans towards Robbie Lawler to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Niko Price has looked bad lately, taking damage and battling injuries, while Lawler still has power and showed life against Brian Barbarena. He believes both will stand and bang, and Lawler lands first. He is surprised by the line (Price -260) and thinks Lawler is very live. He mentions that Price blocks punches with his face and has been knocked out recently.
Cody picks Price but doesn't like the -260 price. He thinks Lawler is past his prime and has been finished recently. He considers the under 2.5 rounds as a better bet, expecting a finish. He notes both fighters have trained together at ATT, which could affect the fight.
Connor picks Niko Price because Robbie Lawler's style is not built for an aging fighter; his reliance on being in the pocket and taking risks is no longer sustainable. Price is a chaotic puncher who can absorb damage and keep coming, and Lawler's decline in durability and cardio makes him vulnerable. Connor notes that Lawler could try to be more methodical but ultimately the other shoe has dropped.
Daniel Levi picks Price, citing his youth and improved volume in recent fights. He notes that Lawler, at 41, is a step slower and has shown a tendency to fade in fights. Levi acknowledges that either fighter could get finished, but believes Price's higher output will allow him to pull away down the stretch. He also mentions that Price has shown good grappling defense and attacks from bottom, which could be a factor if Lawler takes him down. Levi expresses a desire to see Lawler win in his retirement fight but is not counting on it.
James picks Niko Price to win by knockout. He believes Lawler is washed, citing his performance against Nick Diaz where he was touched up. He trusts Price's durability and power more than Lawler's at this stage. He does not advocate betting Price at -260 moneyline, but likes the knockout prop. He notes Price has been finished before but thinks he will get the KO.
Price has youth, speed, and power advantages, and can outwork Lawler late. Lawler still has technical striking and power early, but his durability and pace are questionable. The fight likely ends in a knockout, with Price finishing Lawler in the later rounds. The fight doesn't go to decision is the favorite prop.
Paul picks Price, acknowledging Lawler's legendary career but noting he is 41 and not the same fighter. He thinks Price's volume will be too much. He mentions Lawler's recent losses and that he has been fighting for decades. He says he would feel happy if Lawler wins but his bank account prefers Price.
The MMA Guru picks Niko Price to win by KO in the third round. He believes Lawler has lost his pain tolerance and finishing ability, while Price storms forward in later rounds. He cites Price's performances against Michael Pereira and Luke Jumeau as evidence of his late-round pressure, and notes the age and reach advantage for Price.
Zane picks Niko Price because Robbie Lawler's style is built on narrow margins and he is declining in durability, cardio, and vision. Price is a messy but powerful puncher who can absorb punishment and land a wild shot as Lawler slows down. Zane notes that Lawler could look good early but will likely get caught, and he hopes Lawler wins but cannot pick him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Barberena | 0 | 81 of 141 | 57% | 81 of 141 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 147 of 316 | 46% | 148 of 317 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryan Barberena | 0 | 39 of 65 | 60% | 39 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 67 of 171 | 39% | 68 of 172 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Bryan Barberena | 0 | 42 of 76 | 55% | 42 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 80 of 145 | 55% | 80 of 145 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Barberena | 81 of 141 | 57% | 65 of 124 | 15 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 78 of 137 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 147 of 316 | 46% | 116 of 280 | 18 of 20 | 13 of 16 | 138 of 304 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryan Barberena | 39 of 65 | 60% | 27 of 53 | 12 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 38 of 63 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 67 of 171 | 39% | 46 of 148 | 12 of 13 | 9 of 10 | 64 of 166 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Bryan Barberena | 42 of 76 | 55% | 38 of 71 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 40 of 74 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 80 of 145 | 55% | 70 of 132 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 74 of 138 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Barberena, emphasizing his forward pressure, volume, and durability. He notes that Lawler is declining and didn't look great against Nick Diaz. Barberena's high strike output (186 vs Matt Brown, 195 vs Vicente Luque) is seen as the difference-maker.
Big Brady hesitantly picks Bryan Barberena, citing his youth and volume, but admits neither fighter looks great. He notes Lawler's recent win over Nick Diaz was his first in years, and Barberena has taken damage. He expects a close decision and advises against betting.
Cody thinks Lawler's power and experience will be too much for Barberena, who has shown poor wrestling defense and bad decision-making. He expects Lawler to mix in takedowns and win a gritty fight.
Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Bryan Barberena as the underdog, citing that Lawler is 40 years old and may not have the same ferocity. He notes that Barberena can still dig deep and throw high output, while Lawler has recently resorted to old habits like shadowboxing. Levi acknowledges that Lawler could win if the old 'Ruthless' version shows up, but he sees it as a dog-or-pass situation and prefers the underdog price.
This is a great stylistic matchup for Lawler; Barberena will stand and trade. Lawler's power and experience should prevail. The only concern is Lawler's age (40), but his power is the last thing to go. Lawler by decision or KO is likely.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Lawler's significant strikes over 73.5 on PrizePicks is a good play. He expects a brawl and thinks Lawler will get the job done.
The MMA Guru picks Bryan Barberena, arguing that Robbie Lawler has declined significantly, losing power and explosiveness due to age and accumulated damage. He believes Barberena will outwork Lawler with body shots and volume, predicting a 30-27 or 30-26 decision with a possible 10-8 round. He notes Lawler's recent performances have been weak and that Barberena has momentum.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 150 of 339 | 44% | 150 of 339 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nick Diaz | 0 | 131 of 221 | 59% | 131 of 221 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robbie Lawler | 0 | 71 of 176 | 40% | 71 of 176 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nick Diaz | 0 | 57 of 107 | 53% | 57 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Robbie Lawler | 0 | 73 of 145 | 50% | 73 of 145 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nick Diaz | 0 | 64 of 98 | 65% | 64 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Robbie Lawler | 0 | 6 of 18 | 33% | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nick Diaz | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Lawler | 150 of 339 | 44% | 114 of 294 | 36 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 144 of 331 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Nick Diaz | 131 of 221 | 59% | 88 of 176 | 33 of 35 | 10 of 10 | 99 of 182 | 31 of 38 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robbie Lawler | 71 of 176 | 40% | 54 of 155 | 17 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 70 of 174 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Nick Diaz | 57 of 107 | 53% | 35 of 84 | 15 of 16 | 7 of 7 | 43 of 90 | 14 of 17 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Robbie Lawler | 73 of 145 | 50% | 58 of 126 | 15 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 68 of 139 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Nick Diaz | 64 of 98 | 65% | 47 of 80 | 15 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 47 of 77 | 17 of 21 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Robbie Lawler | 6 of 18 | 33% | 2 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nick Diaz | 10 of 16 | 62% | 6 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Diaz, defying logic. He argues that Lawler has taken years of damage in wars, while Diaz has had five years off to heal. Angelo believes Diaz's high volume and chin will be key, and he expects Diaz to overwhelm Lawler with strikes.
Big Brady picks Robbie Lawler to win, but with very low confidence. He notes that Lawler has been more active, while Diaz hasn't fought in 6.5 years and hasn't won in 9.5 years. He admits there are too many unknowns to bet this fight and is picking Lawler simply because he's the more active fighter.
Cody picks Lawler, citing Diaz's long layoff, lack of recent wins, party lifestyle, and questionable training. He notes Lawler has been consistently training and competing against top competition. He also mentions Diaz's poor timing in recent sparring footage and the weight advantage Diaz may have, but still favors Lawler's activity and wrestling.
Daniel Levi leans toward Nick Diaz, citing Robbie Lawler's decline since the Carlos Condit fight. He notes Lawler has lost to Ben Askren and Colby Covington, and his spirit seems diminished. Levi believes if Diaz doesn't fall over early, his volume and cardio in a five-round fight will be too much for Lawler. However, he acknowledges the uncertainty around Diaz's long layoff and conditioning, making this a low-confidence pick.
Jacob picks Lawler, citing his recent activity and that he hasn't been finished in his losses. He thinks Lawler will look sharper and that Diaz may struggle early after the layoff. Jacob doesn't love the pick but leans Lawler.
The host leans towards Nick Diaz by fourth-round TKO. He believes Diaz's durability and pace will be key in a five-round fight. He expects Diaz to weather Lawler's early storm and then put it on him later. He notes that both fighters have question marks and advises against betting this fight, but likes the over 2.5 rounds. He thinks Diaz's legendary chin will hold up.
Paul picks Lawler, acknowledging the uncertainty around Diaz's form and motivation. He notes Diaz hasn't won in 10 years and looked poor against Anderson Silva. He expects Lawler to be in shape and possibly use wrestling. He is interested in the weigh-ins for clues.
The MMA Guru picks Robbie Lawler over Nick Diaz, despite acknowledging the possibility of a Diaz win. He cites Diaz's six-year layoff and questionable lifestyle, while Lawler has been active and trains daily. He expects Lawler to come out explosive and finish Diaz by first-round TKO, possibly with calf kicks. He notes that Lawler sees this as a retirement opportunity and will be motivated. He also mentions that Diaz's boxing-heavy style leaves him vulnerable to leg kicks.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 0 | 26 of 45 | 57% | 41 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:33 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 62 of 88 | 70% | 116 of 144 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 8:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 0 | 8 of 8 | 100% | 12 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:35 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 11 of 11 | 100% | 40 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 9 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 16 of 21 | 76% | 32 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:25 | |
| 3 | Neil Magny | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 20 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 35 of 56 | 62% | 44 of 65 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 26 of 45 | 57% | 18 of 36 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 33 | 6 of 6 | 5 of 6 |
| Robbie Lawler | 62 of 88 | 70% | 36 of 61 | 21 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 39 of 63 | 16 of 18 | 7 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 8 of 8 | 100% | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Robbie Lawler | 11 of 11 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 9 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 6 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 7 of 14 | 50% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
| Robbie Lawler | 16 of 21 | 76% | 12 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 15 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Neil Magny | 11 of 23 | 47% | 7 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 35 of 56 | 62% | 23 of 43 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 26 of 45 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Magny, believing Lawler is on the back end of his career and hesitant to throw. He thinks Magny will use his length and reach to pick Lawler apart from range and win a decision. He notes Lawler's only path to victory is a knockout, but doubts Lawler still has that power.
Daniel Levi picks Robbie Lawler at plus money, arguing that Lawler's level of competition has been much higher than Magny's recent opponents. He believes Lawler will crack Magny with hard shots in the first round, possibly getting a knockout, and that Magny's cardio advantage may only show in the third round. He acknowledges the risk of Lawler being past his prime but sees value in the underdog line.
Magny has good cardio, reach, and a clinch game that can stifle Lawler. Lawler is on a three-fight skid and has been out over a year; his form is uncertain. Magny should grind out a decision, but the -235 line is too high given Lawler's potential if he shows up with a leg-kick-heavy game plan.
The host picks Neil Magny, stating that Lawler's only chance is an early KO, but Lawler hasn't had a KO finish on the feet since Jake Ellenberger. He believes Magny will outrange Lawler with jabs, front kicks, and leg kicks, and that Lawler is injury-prone. He considers Magny a safe bet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby Covington | 0 | 179 of 515 | 34% | 201 of 541 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 8:42 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 78 of 167 | 46% | 82 of 171 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colby Covington | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 24 of 41 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 3:57 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 4 of 18 | 22% | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Colby Covington | 0 | 33 of 105 | 31% | 36 of 108 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Colby Covington | 0 | 41 of 117 | 35% | 43 of 122 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 23 of 48 | 47% | 25 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Colby Covington | 0 | 51 of 130 | 39% | 56 of 135 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 23 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Colby Covington | 0 | 41 of 134 | 30% | 42 of 135 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 23 of 52 | 44% | 23 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby Covington | 179 of 515 | 34% | 128 of 454 | 20 of 28 | 31 of 33 | 154 of 477 | 25 of 38 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 78 of 167 | 46% | 61 of 144 | 10 of 16 | 7 of 7 | 66 of 152 | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colby Covington | 13 of 29 | 44% | 10 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 21 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 4 of 18 | 22% | 2 of 12 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Colby Covington | 33 of 105 | 31% | 26 of 96 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 28 of 98 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 6 of 7 | 85% | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Colby Covington | 41 of 117 | 35% | 24 of 96 | 5 of 8 | 12 of 13 | 36 of 108 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 23 of 48 | 47% | 17 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 44 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Colby Covington | 51 of 130 | 39% | 38 of 115 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 9 | 44 of 121 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 22 of 42 | 52% | 19 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 35 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Colby Covington | 41 of 134 | 30% | 30 of 121 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 38 of 129 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 23 of 52 | 44% | 19 of 46 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Askren | 0 | 26 of 29 | 89% | 30 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Askren | 0 | 26 of 29 | 89% | 30 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Askren | 26 of 29 | 89% | 21 of 24 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 9 | 16 of 18 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Askren | 26 of 29 | 89% | 21 of 24 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 9 | 16 of 18 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 86 of 212 | 40% | 137 of 267 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:24 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 172 of 291 | 59% | 219 of 343 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 7:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 14 of 40 | 35% | 18 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 19 of 49 | 38% | 31 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 34 of 74 | 45% | 36 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 58 of 97 | 59% | 60 of 99 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 16 of 26 | 61% | 29 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:13 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 19 of 28 | 67% | 40 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:12 | |
| 4 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 11 of 40 | 27% | 18 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 39 of 63 | 61% | 44 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 | |
| 5 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 11 of 32 | 34% | 36 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 37 of 54 | 68% | 44 of 61 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 86 of 212 | 40% | 53 of 171 | 32 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 48 of 159 | 38 of 53 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 172 of 291 | 59% | 100 of 199 | 48 of 64 | 24 of 28 | 104 of 203 | 58 of 78 | 10 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 14 of 40 | 35% | 6 of 28 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 29 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 19 of 49 | 38% | 2 of 25 | 9 of 15 | 8 of 9 | 10 of 35 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 34 of 74 | 45% | 23 of 61 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 61 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 58 of 97 | 59% | 39 of 73 | 13 of 16 | 6 of 8 | 51 of 88 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafael dos Anjos | 16 of 26 | 61% | 4 of 12 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 15 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 19 of 28 | 67% | 15 of 19 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 7 | 6 of 11 | 10 of 10 | |
| 4 | Rafael dos Anjos | 11 of 40 | 27% | 10 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 35 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 39 of 63 | 61% | 24 of 46 | 10 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 23 of 44 | 16 of 19 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Rafael dos Anjos | 11 of 32 | 34% | 10 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 26 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 37 of 54 | 68% | 20 of 36 | 13 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 29 | 20 of 25 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 77 of 156 | 49% | 85 of 164 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Donald Cerrone | 0 | 82 of 166 | 49% | 99 of 185 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robbie Lawler | 0 | 37 of 57 | 64% | 42 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Donald Cerrone | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 28 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 | |
| 2 | Robbie Lawler | 0 | 9 of 23 | 39% | 9 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Donald Cerrone | 0 | 29 of 69 | 42% | 31 of 73 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Robbie Lawler | 0 | 31 of 76 | 40% | 34 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Donald Cerrone | 0 | 38 of 72 | 52% | 40 of 74 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Lawler | 77 of 156 | 49% | 47 of 116 | 28 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 35 of 101 | 42 of 55 | 0 of 0 |
| Donald Cerrone | 82 of 166 | 49% | 50 of 127 | 26 of 32 | 6 of 7 | 56 of 125 | 25 of 40 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robbie Lawler | 37 of 57 | 64% | 24 of 42 | 12 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 17 | 31 of 40 | 0 of 0 |
| Donald Cerrone | 15 of 25 | 60% | 3 of 12 | 11 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 15 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Robbie Lawler | 9 of 23 | 39% | 4 of 15 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Donald Cerrone | 29 of 69 | 42% | 18 of 54 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 26 of 60 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Robbie Lawler | 31 of 76 | 40% | 19 of 59 | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 61 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Donald Cerrone | 38 of 72 | 52% | 29 of 61 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 50 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 |
Carlos Condit - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Griffin | 0 | 63 of 176 | 35% | 66 of 179 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Condit | 1 | 93 of 171 | 54% | 95 of 173 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Griffin | 0 | 13 of 42 | 30% | 13 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Condit | 1 | 34 of 61 | 55% | 34 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 2 | Max Griffin | 0 | 28 of 68 | 41% | 28 of 68 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 29 of 48 | 60% | 30 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Max Griffin | 0 | 22 of 66 | 33% | 25 of 69 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 30 of 62 | 48% | 31 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Griffin | 63 of 176 | 35% | 35 of 134 | 17 of 30 | 11 of 12 | 61 of 173 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Condit | 93 of 171 | 54% | 59 of 129 | 6 of 11 | 28 of 31 | 81 of 153 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Griffin | 13 of 42 | 30% | 3 of 27 | 6 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Condit | 34 of 61 | 55% | 18 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 16 of 19 | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 16 | |
| 2 | Max Griffin | 28 of 68 | 41% | 17 of 51 | 7 of 12 | 4 of 5 | 28 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Condit | 29 of 48 | 60% | 18 of 34 | 2 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 28 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Max Griffin | 22 of 66 | 33% | 15 of 56 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 64 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Condit | 30 of 62 | 48% | 23 of 54 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The prelims will be capped off by a welterweight battle that sees “The Natural Born Killer” Condit (32-13, 9-9 UFC) try to go on a three-fight win streak against the heavy-handed Griffin (17-8, 5-6 UFC). Depending on the result, either Condit will fall below .500 in the UFC or Griffin will rise to that level, barring an unusual turn of events. Referee Marc Goddard will keep a watchful eye on the violence that is about to be bestowed in the cage, and the fighters do not touch gloves before inflicting said violence. Griffin charges out of his corner to attack, with a low kick and several high kicks to sends the former WEC champ backing away. Condit greets him with a few punches to back him off, and he puts together a combination and a head kick that gets slapped away. Griffin chops down Condit’s lead leg multiple times, and Condit’s calf is already reddening from them. Condit fires off a body kick, and he cannot get out of the way from another leg kick. Griffin walks through a punch to land a heavier one, and his leg kick that follows spins Condit around. “The Natural Born Killer” does not block the kicks or check them, and he tries to go after Griffin with his own but Griffin is right there with another. Condit turns about with another few kicks, and the damage is mounting fast as Condit appears to be struggling with it. Condit chips at the calf and then the body, but he absorbs one more low kick. Condit is forced to switch stances, and Griffin greets the change of position with one on the other leg. Condit marches forward to attack, only to get his lead leg chopped down beneath him. Condit ducks down into a right hand, and Griffin slips it and comes back with an overhand right. Condit just comes up short with a counter right hand when Griffin advances, and he does kick the body successful on the way out. Griffin’s leg kick makes Condit pick it up and try to move with it, and the ex-champ strides in and kicks the body. Condit’s calves are swelling up fast, and he tries to connect with a spinning kick but gets pushed back. Griffin blasts him with a right hand, sending Condit crashing into the wall and down to the ground. Griffin looks for a finish, delivering some heavy ground-and-pound, but Condit threatens with an offensive guard and survives to fight his way back to his feet. Condit jumps at his foe with a flying knee, and Griffin sits down on a leg kick and takes a right hand on the chin. Condit marches forward to brawl, and Griffin is there to greet him until he ducks out of the way to avoid most of the danger before the bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Round 2
The second round begins with both fighters meeting in the center of the Octagon, but neither commit to any strikes until Condit launches a head kick. Griffin blocks it and targets Condit’s lead leg with impunity, and the former champ can do nothing but take it. Condit takes a traditional martial arts stance as he looks to wind up a side kick, and he steps in to clinch and drill Griffin in the chin with a knee. Condit catches Griffin on the end of a right hand to send “Pain” staggering back, but it is likely out of balance and not damage. Griffin gains his composure and fires off a right hand, and he beats Condit to the punch with a follow-up jab. Condit ducks down into a leg kick, and he gets off a body kick but is countered on the way out. Condit checks a leg kick for the first time, and he whiffs on a body kick but sprints forward with a trip and throw takedown. Griffin manages to get back to his feet, only to meet a right hand from Condit. Condit sits down on a right hand as well, and a left to the body follows. Griffin keeps his right hand up high to counter Condit, and he takes a kick to the body while watching Condit’s movement. Condit’s pace appears to be growing while Griffin’s is decreasing, and Condit advances with a spinning kick that bounces off his intended target. Griffin scores a leg kick, and Condit ducks down to trip his foe but cannot achieve it. Condit unloads with several punches to the head and body, and he marks up Griffin with a clean right hand. Condit reaches forward with an elbow, a right hand, and a cartwheel kick that comes up short. Condit ignores a low kick to crack Griffin on the chin, and “The Natural Born Killer” ignores a leg kick so that he can continue to strike. Griffin times Condit when Condit darts forward with a right hand, and Condit leads the dance and boots “Pain” in the side with a kick. Griffin pushes Condit away and the two jab at the same time, and Condit slips and delivers a right hand. Condit dips in with a left hand and a head kick, and the round ends when Griffin kicks him back.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Condit
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Condit
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Condit
Round 3
Between rounds, we can see the damage on Condit’s nose, but he pays it no mind and is ready for the final frame. Condit offers a glove touch, and Griffin pushes his hand away and tries to get off an overhand right. Condit ducks down and clocks Griffin in the chin with a head kick, but the Californian eats it like a steak. Griffin blitzes forward to attack, and he clubs Condit with a few punches to make “The Natural Born Killer” fall into the cage wall. Condit catches a body kick, and he pushes Griffin over to force Griffin to roll through and get back up. As Griffin tries to stand up, Condit batters him with strikes, until Griffin gathers his thoughts and starts to land hard hooks. Griffin scores single punches square on the chin, and Condit walks through them and throws right back at him. Condit slips one such punch to land a left hand, and Griffin stands tall and scores again. A three-punch combination stands Condit up, but Condit is not concerned and instead is fired up as he strings together a length combination to back Griffin up. At the end of a salvo, Condit tags Griffin with a right hand, and Griffin looks for a right hand counter but comes up short. Condit jabs out and flusters Griffin for a moment, before stepping in with an elbow. Condit advances with long, stinging jabs, and he walks face-first into a right hand that he completely ignores. Condit digs a left hand to the body and draws a pained reaction out of “Pain,” and he shoots in for a takedown to keep Griffin guessing. The takedown does not succeed, but Condit is able to knee in the body a few times. Griffin smashes Condit in the face with a right hand, and he bullies Condit into the fence and hits a takedown. Griffin takes half guard, but Condit rolls and is able to stand up after briefly threatening with an armbar. Griffin clings on to him for one final takedown try, and Condit attacks with a kimura and a guillotine but neither are there. Condit drops down to attack a leg of his opponent, and he takes Griffin’s back at the bell. This is going to be a close one.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (29-28 Griffin)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (29-28 Griffin)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (29-28 Griffin)
The Official Result
Max Griffin def. Carlos Condit via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Angelo picks Griffin despite rooting for Condit. He notes Condit is slowing down at 37, while Griffin is faster and stronger. He thinks Griffin's speed and power will overcome Condit's technical advantages. He has Griffin in his DraftKings lineup.
Big Brady picks Max Griffin to win by decision. He emphasizes that Griffin should use his wrestling, as Condit has been taken down in every fight where opponents attempted takedowns. He notes Griffin averages nearly two takedowns per 15 minutes with 51% accuracy. He thinks the striking will be close but the takedowns will be the difference. He mentions Condit's recent wins over Court McGee and Matt Brown but notes McGee didn't wrestle, which was a mistake.
Cody picks Griffin but prefers the submission prop at 20-1 on DraftKings. He notes Griffin's wrestling advantage and believes his best path is takedowns and submissions. He thinks Griffin can win by submission despite no UFC subs, citing Condit's vulnerability.
Daniel Levi picks Carlos Condit as a slight lean, acknowledging it's an illogical pick. He admits Condit is past his prime and that Griffin probably should win by decision using top control. However, he respects Condit's veteran savvy and believes he can do something sneaky to pull off an upset. He notes that Condit still has fight in him, as seen in the Oliveira fight where he almost got a submission. He is not confident in the pick.
Jacob picks Condit, citing his recent performances and value at 7500. He notes Condit has never been knocked out and has looked great against Matt Brown. He thinks Condit's experience and takedowns will be key. He compares Condit's potential run to Glover Teixeira's late-career surge.
I like Max Griffin here. Condit's takedown defense is terrible (35% defense), and Griffin has good pressure and takedowns. Condit hasn't submitted anyone in the UFC, and Griffin's cardio is good enough to grind out a decision. I expect Griffin to land takedowns and control the fight, winning by decision. The line might seem wide, but I trust Griffin to exploit Condit's weakness.
Paul picks Griffin by decision at +135. He notes Griffin's wrestling and volume striking, and Condit's durability. He thinks Griffin will use takedowns to secure rounds. He doesn't like the moneyline at -190.
The Guru picks Condit by 29-28 unanimous decision in an upset. He expects Griffin to win the first round by landing big shots on Condit's chin, but Condit's chin will hold up. As the fight goes on, Condit will invest in body shots, leg kicks, and takedowns, mixing in grappling and counter hooks. Griffin will become boxing-heavy and head-hunt, while Condit circles out and lands. The Guru sees Condit taking the second and third rounds with a more varied attack.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 39 of 88 | 44% | 157 of 209 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 4:52 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 28 of 37 | 75% | 37 of 52 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 6:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Condit | 0 | 6 of 22 | 27% | 60 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:23 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 15 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:36 | |
| 2 | Carlos Condit | 0 | 21 of 44 | 47% | 58 of 83 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:25 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 12 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 | |
| 3 | Carlos Condit | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 39 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 8 of 8 | 100% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:53 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Condit | 39 of 88 | 44% | 30 of 73 | 4 of 8 | 5 of 7 | 22 of 68 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 15 |
| Matt Brown | 28 of 37 | 75% | 13 of 22 | 11 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 18 | 8 of 8 | 9 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Condit | 6 of 22 | 27% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Matt Brown | 9 of 14 | 64% | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | |
| 2 | Carlos Condit | 21 of 44 | 47% | 17 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 |
| Matt Brown | 11 of 15 | 73% | 3 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carlos Condit | 12 of 22 | 54% | 10 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Matt Brown | 8 of 8 | 100% | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 |
Big Brady picks Carlos Condit to win inside the distance, specifically by second-round knockout. He notes Condit's 90% finish rate and that he has never been knocked out, while Brown has been knocked out three times and is weak to the body. He believes Brown's durability is not what it once was and that Condit can finish him. He also mentions that Brown has been submitted 10 times, but Condit's path is via knockout.
Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown as a slight underdog, calling it a 50-55 fight. He notes Condit's last win over Court McGee was unimpressive, while Brown has knockout power and a history of finishing fights. He expects Condit to try to point-fight, but Brown's pressure and body shots could be key. He admits low confidence.
Matt Brown's pressure style is a bad matchup for Condit, who struggles when opponents stay in his face and take away his space. Brown will push forward, use dirty boxing, and grind Condit against the cage. Condit's takedown defense is poor and he often relies on his back, but Brown is not a submission threat. Condit's best chance is on the feet with kicks, but Brown's durability and pressure should earn him a decision. The line should be closer to even, so plus money on Brown is value.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Condit over Matt Brown, citing Condit's superior chin and striking. He notes Brown is losing his chin and coming off a TKO loss, while Condit has never been knocked out. He predicts Condit will win by third-round TKO once Brown gasses. He also mentions Condit's historical robbery against Robbie Lawler.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Condit | 1 | 88 of 230 | 38% | 88 of 230 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 84 of 182 | 46% | 84 of 182 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Condit | 1 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 31 of 63 | 49% | 31 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carlos Condit | 0 | 30 of 71 | 42% | 30 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 26 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Carlos Condit | 0 | 43 of 121 | 35% | 43 of 121 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 27 of 63 | 42% | 27 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Condit | 88 of 230 | 38% | 50 of 173 | 17 of 34 | 21 of 23 | 87 of 228 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Court McGee | 84 of 182 | 46% | 9 of 73 | 28 of 51 | 47 of 58 | 84 of 182 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Condit | 15 of 38 | 39% | 5 of 19 | 4 of 12 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 31 of 63 | 49% | 3 of 22 | 11 of 17 | 17 of 24 | 31 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carlos Condit | 30 of 71 | 42% | 17 of 54 | 7 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 30 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 26 of 56 | 46% | 3 of 19 | 6 of 17 | 17 of 20 | 26 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carlos Condit | 43 of 121 | 35% | 28 of 100 | 6 of 11 | 9 of 10 | 42 of 119 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Court McGee | 27 of 63 | 42% | 3 of 32 | 11 of 17 | 13 of 14 | 27 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Court McGee to win by decision. He notes McGee's clear path to victory via takedowns, as Condit has poor takedown defense. He thinks Condit's only chance is a submission off his back, but McGee has never been submitted.
Daniel leans with Condit, reasoning that McGee's training camp was subpar (mainly drilling with his 13-year-old son) and that Condit has had moments of success against higher-level competition. He acknowledges Condit's five-fight losing streak but thinks this is a winnable fight, predicting a split decision. He notes that McGee's takedowns could be a factor but Condit might capitalize on submissions.
The host leans toward Court McGee due to Condit's poor takedown defense and McGee's durability, but he is not confident enough to bet at -135. He predicts a decision win for McGee but says he would only bet if McGee were plus money.
The Guru picks Carlos Condit, noting his good ground game and submission threats against Michael Chiesa. He believes Condit is naturally bigger and can push the pace, and predicts a submission by armbar in the second round or a decision. He sees nothing in McGee's game to suggest he can beat Condit.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 5 of 24 | 20% | 20 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:18 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 16 of 33 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 4:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 19 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:18 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 13 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:42 | |
| 2 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 5 of 24 | 20% | 2 of 18 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 18 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 |
| Carlos Condit | 10 of 22 | 45% | 8 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 4 of 15 | 26% | 2 of 11 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 |
| Carlos Condit | 9 of 17 | 52% | 7 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 12 | |
| 2 | Michael Chiesa | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Condit | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 42 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 2:52 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 9 of 23 | 39% | 22 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Oliveira | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 28 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 2:01 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 9 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 | |
| 2 | Alex Oliveira | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 14 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 13 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Oliveira | 12 of 18 | 66% | 6 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
| Carlos Condit | 9 of 23 | 39% | 8 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Oliveira | 5 of 6 | 83% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Carlos Condit | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Alex Oliveira | 7 of 12 | 58% | 5 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Carlos Condit | 8 of 17 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 0 | 37 of 112 | 33% | 64 of 140 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 32 of 114 | 28% | 64 of 150 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 5:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 0 | 10 of 31 | 32% | 18 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 9 of 35 | 25% | 15 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:40 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 28 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 6 of 23 | 26% | 27 of 47 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:47 | |
| 3 | Neil Magny | 0 | 17 of 61 | 27% | 18 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 17 of 56 | 30% | 22 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 37 of 112 | 33% | 10 of 69 | 10 of 21 | 17 of 22 | 32 of 103 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Condit | 32 of 114 | 28% | 14 of 83 | 13 of 21 | 5 of 10 | 24 of 102 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 10 of 31 | 32% | 3 of 20 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Condit | 9 of 35 | 25% | 3 of 23 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 3 | 6 of 29 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 10 of 20 | 50% | 3 of 11 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Condit | 6 of 23 | 26% | 2 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Neil Magny | 17 of 61 | 27% | 4 of 38 | 5 of 11 | 8 of 12 | 17 of 58 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Condit | 17 of 56 | 30% | 9 of 42 | 4 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 14 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demian Maia | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Demian Maia | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demian Maia | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Carlos Condit | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Demian Maia | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Carlos Condit | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Lawler | 1 | 92 of 177 | 51% | 93 of 178 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 176 of 495 | 35% | 177 of 497 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robbie Lawler | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 28 of 75 | 37% | 28 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Robbie Lawler | 1 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 11 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 17 of 71 | 23% | 18 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Robbie Lawler | 0 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 22 of 78 | 28% | 22 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 4 | Robbie Lawler | 0 | 6 of 18 | 33% | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 47 of 98 | 47% | 47 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Robbie Lawler | 0 | 53 of 92 | 57% | 53 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 62 of 173 | 35% | 62 of 173 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Lawler | 92 of 177 | 51% | 82 of 167 | 7 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 76 of 153 | 14 of 20 | 2 of 4 |
| Carlos Condit | 176 of 495 | 35% | 96 of 372 | 47 of 79 | 33 of 44 | 149 of 447 | 27 of 48 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robbie Lawler | 12 of 18 | 66% | 9 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Condit | 28 of 75 | 37% | 9 of 52 | 9 of 12 | 10 of 11 | 23 of 67 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Robbie Lawler | 10 of 23 | 43% | 8 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Carlos Condit | 17 of 71 | 23% | 6 of 49 | 4 of 11 | 7 of 11 | 16 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Robbie Lawler | 11 of 26 | 42% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Condit | 22 of 78 | 28% | 6 of 50 | 9 of 20 | 7 of 8 | 20 of 76 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Robbie Lawler | 6 of 18 | 33% | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Condit | 47 of 98 | 47% | 27 of 73 | 14 of 17 | 6 of 8 | 39 of 86 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Robbie Lawler | 53 of 92 | 57% | 50 of 89 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 44 of 78 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Condit | 62 of 173 | 35% | 48 of 148 | 11 of 19 | 3 of 6 | 51 of 148 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 |
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