UFC 195: Lawler vs. Condit · Jan 02, 2016 · Welterweight · Completed
UFC 195: Lawler vs. Condit Next Fight
Age 44
Height 5' 11"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 42
Height 6' 2"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Robbie Lawler
3.85 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
4.67 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
0.65 TD Avg
64.0% TD Acc.
65.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Carlos Condit
3.66 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
2.67 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.59 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
38.0% TD Def.
1.0 Sub. Avg
Robbie Lawler - Fight History
WIN vs Niko Price
KO (punches) R1 0:38 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robbie Lawler 1 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Niko Price 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robbie Lawler 1 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Niko Price 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robbie Lawler 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 4 of 4 0 of 0
Niko Price 2 of 7 28% 0 of 3 1 of 2 1 of 2 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robbie Lawler 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 4 of 4 0 of 0
Niko Price 2 of 7 28% 0 of 3 1 of 2 1 of 2 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Niko Price

Angelo picks Price but is hesitant, calling it a tricky betting spot. He notes Price is younger and less beat up, with similar wild style to Lawler. Lawler is declining and likely to retire. He expects a fun slugfest but is unsure about a finish, and fears the round line might be a trap. He does not place a bet.

No bet, unsure about finish
"Nico price is going to be the pick here he has had some of the biggest line movement on this card"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Robbie Lawler

Big Brady leans towards Robbie Lawler to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Niko Price has looked bad lately, taking damage and battling injuries, while Lawler still has power and showed life against Brian Barbarena. He believes both will stand and bang, and Lawler lands first. He is surprised by the line (Price -260) and thinks Lawler is very live. He mentions that Price blocks punches with his face and has been knocked out recently.

second round knockout
"I'm gonna take Robbie Lawler to get it done I'm gonna take him to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Cody picks Price but doesn't like the -260 price. He thinks Lawler is past his prime and has been finished recently. He considers the under 2.5 rounds as a better bet, expecting a finish. He notes both fighters have trained together at ATT, which could affect the fight.

Under 2.5 rounds (-155 to -160), Price by KO/TKO
"Nico price should be the favorites minus 260 is is definitely not getting my my money but he will be my pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Connor picks Niko Price because Robbie Lawler's style is not built for an aging fighter; his reliance on being in the pocket and taking risks is no longer sustainable. Price is a chaotic puncher who can absorb damage and keep coming, and Lawler's decline in durability and cardio makes him vulnerable. Connor notes that Lawler could try to be more methodical but ultimately the other shoe has dropped.

Same odds commentary as Zane; Connor agrees with the betting line.
"I'm not going to pick him either. At this point, the problems are so compounding for Lawler."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Daniel Levi picks Price, citing his youth and improved volume in recent fights. He notes that Lawler, at 41, is a step slower and has shown a tendency to fade in fights. Levi acknowledges that either fighter could get finished, but believes Price's higher output will allow him to pull away down the stretch. He also mentions that Price has shown good grappling defense and attacks from bottom, which could be a factor if Lawler takes him down. Levi expresses a desire to see Lawler win in his retirement fight but is not counting on it.

"I kind of leaned towards Nico besides the youth is what I was talking about these last few fights he's been putting up more output."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Niko Price

James picks Niko Price to win by knockout. He believes Lawler is washed, citing his performance against Nick Diaz where he was touched up. He trusts Price's durability and power more than Lawler's at this stage. He does not advocate betting Price at -260 moneyline, but likes the knockout prop. He notes Price has been finished before but thinks he will get the KO.

Niko Price wins by KO
"I air on the side that Nico price knocks out Robbie Lawler"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Price has youth, speed, and power advantages, and can outwork Lawler late. Lawler still has technical striking and power early, but his durability and pace are questionable. The fight likely ends in a knockout, with Price finishing Lawler in the later rounds. The fight doesn't go to decision is the favorite prop.

fight doesn't go to decision
"give me a fight doesn't go to the decision as my favorite prop for this fight favorite prediction for this fight but I'm gonna go with the younger fighter here and Nicole price to get his hand raised by TKO."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Paul picks Price, acknowledging Lawler's legendary career but noting he is 41 and not the same fighter. He thinks Price's volume will be too much. He mentions Lawler's recent losses and that he has been fighting for decades. He says he would feel happy if Lawler wins but his bank account prefers Price.

Under 2.5 rounds
"I gotta go with Nico price and if Robbie was a spring want to knock him out like inside my heart I'd feel happy the bank account not the match"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Niko Price

The MMA Guru picks Niko Price to win by KO in the third round. He believes Lawler has lost his pain tolerance and finishing ability, while Price storms forward in later rounds. He cites Price's performances against Michael Pereira and Luke Jumeau as evidence of his late-round pressure, and notes the age and reach advantage for Price.

wins by KO in the third round
"we're gonna see Nico price get a KO win in the third round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Zane picks Niko Price because Robbie Lawler's style is built on narrow margins and he is declining in durability, cardio, and vision. Price is a messy but powerful puncher who can absorb punishment and land a wild shot as Lawler slows down. Zane notes that Lawler could look good early but will likely get caught, and he hopes Lawler wins but cannot pick him.

Lawler opened at +218, currently +221; Price opened at -252, currently -256. Zane says 'you just got to assume everybody should be betting on Niko Price here.'
"I'm going to pick Niko Price and I'm going to feel terrible about it."
LOSS vs Bryan Barberena
TKO (punches) R2 4:47 · UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Jul 02, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryan Barberena 0 81 of 141 57% 81 of 141 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robbie Lawler 0 147 of 316 46% 148 of 317 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryan Barberena 0 39 of 65 60% 39 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robbie Lawler 0 67 of 171 39% 68 of 172 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bryan Barberena 0 42 of 76 55% 42 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robbie Lawler 0 80 of 145 55% 80 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryan Barberena 81 of 141 57% 65 of 124 15 of 16 1 of 1 78 of 137 3 of 4 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 147 of 316 46% 116 of 280 18 of 20 13 of 16 138 of 304 9 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryan Barberena 39 of 65 60% 27 of 53 12 of 12 0 of 0 38 of 63 1 of 2 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 67 of 171 39% 46 of 148 12 of 13 9 of 10 64 of 166 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Bryan Barberena 42 of 76 55% 38 of 71 3 of 4 1 of 1 40 of 74 2 of 2 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 80 of 145 55% 70 of 132 6 of 7 4 of 6 74 of 138 6 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Bryan Barberena

Angelo picks Barberena, emphasizing his forward pressure, volume, and durability. He notes that Lawler is declining and didn't look great against Nick Diaz. Barberena's high strike output (186 vs Matt Brown, 195 vs Vicente Luque) is seen as the difference-maker.

"I think brian barbarena's forward pressure constant volume i think that's going to be the difference here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 28, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Bryan Barberena

Big Brady hesitantly picks Bryan Barberena, citing his youth and volume, but admits neither fighter looks great. He notes Lawler's recent win over Nick Diaz was his first in years, and Barberena has taken damage. He expects a close decision and advises against betting.

Barberena by decision; no bet
"give me brian barbarena as a dog but i just feel like nobody should be confident in this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Robbie Lawler

Cody thinks Lawler's power and experience will be too much for Barberena, who has shown poor wrestling defense and bad decision-making. He expects Lawler to mix in takedowns and win a gritty fight.

"gotta go with Robbie Lawler my boy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 30, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Bryan Barberena

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Bryan Barberena as the underdog, citing that Lawler is 40 years old and may not have the same ferocity. He notes that Barberena can still dig deep and throw high output, while Lawler has recently resorted to old habits like shadowboxing. Levi acknowledges that Lawler could win if the old 'Ruthless' version shows up, but he sees it as a dog-or-pass situation and prefers the underdog price.

Dog-or-pass; underdog price attractive.
"i'm gonna slightly lean with brian barbarena just for the underdog price here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Robbie Lawler

This is a great stylistic matchup for Lawler; Barberena will stand and trade. Lawler's power and experience should prevail. The only concern is Lawler's age (40), but his power is the last thing to go. Lawler by decision or KO is likely.

"i'm leaning robbie lawler here again the only thing scaring me off is uh the 40 year old number"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Robbie Lawler

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Lawler's significant strikes over 73.5 on PrizePicks is a good play. He expects a brawl and thinks Lawler will get the job done.

Lawler over 73.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I agree on with uh I like ruthless Robbie to get the job done in this spot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Bryan Barberena

The MMA Guru picks Bryan Barberena, arguing that Robbie Lawler has declined significantly, losing power and explosiveness due to age and accumulated damage. He believes Barberena will outwork Lawler with body shots and volume, predicting a 30-27 or 30-26 decision with a possible 10-8 round. He notes Lawler's recent performances have been weak and that Barberena has momentum.

"i'm going to go with brian barbarena breaking robbie lawler as the fight goes on"
WIN vs Nick Diaz
TKO (retirement) R3 0:44 · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Sep 25, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robbie Lawler 0 150 of 339 44% 150 of 339 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Nick Diaz 0 131 of 221 59% 131 of 221 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robbie Lawler 0 71 of 176 40% 71 of 176 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Nick Diaz 0 57 of 107 53% 57 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Robbie Lawler 0 73 of 145 50% 73 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nick Diaz 0 64 of 98 65% 64 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Robbie Lawler 0 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nick Diaz 0 10 of 16 62% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robbie Lawler 150 of 339 44% 114 of 294 36 of 45 0 of 0 144 of 331 6 of 8 0 of 0
Nick Diaz 131 of 221 59% 88 of 176 33 of 35 10 of 10 99 of 182 31 of 38 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robbie Lawler 71 of 176 40% 54 of 155 17 of 21 0 of 0 70 of 174 1 of 2 0 of 0
Nick Diaz 57 of 107 53% 35 of 84 15 of 16 7 of 7 43 of 90 14 of 17 0 of 0
2 Robbie Lawler 73 of 145 50% 58 of 126 15 of 19 0 of 0 68 of 139 5 of 6 0 of 0
Nick Diaz 64 of 98 65% 47 of 80 15 of 16 2 of 2 47 of 77 17 of 21 0 of 0
3 Robbie Lawler 6 of 18 33% 2 of 13 4 of 5 0 of 0 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nick Diaz 10 of 16 62% 6 of 12 3 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Nick Diaz

Angelo picks Diaz, defying logic. He argues that Lawler has taken years of damage in wars, while Diaz has had five years off to heal. Angelo believes Diaz's high volume and chin will be key, and he expects Diaz to overwhelm Lawler with strikes.

Angelo played more more on Monkey Knife Fight, expecting a high-volume fight. He also mentions DraftKings pricing: Diaz at $7,000 is better value.
"I'm picking Nick Diaz and it defies all logic"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Robbie Lawler

Big Brady picks Robbie Lawler to win, but with very low confidence. He notes that Lawler has been more active, while Diaz hasn't fought in 6.5 years and hasn't won in 9.5 years. He admits there are too many unknowns to bet this fight and is picking Lawler simply because he's the more active fighter.

"i'll go robbie lawler but zero confidence"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Robbie Lawler

Cody picks Lawler, citing Diaz's long layoff, lack of recent wins, party lifestyle, and questionable training. He notes Lawler has been consistently training and competing against top competition. He also mentions Diaz's poor timing in recent sparring footage and the weight advantage Diaz may have, but still favors Lawler's activity and wrestling.

fight goes to decision (-125)
"i got to go with robbie but i'm so i'm so happy to see that diaz is back"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 24, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Nick Diaz

Daniel Levi leans toward Nick Diaz, citing Robbie Lawler's decline since the Carlos Condit fight. He notes Lawler has lost to Ben Askren and Colby Covington, and his spirit seems diminished. Levi believes if Diaz doesn't fall over early, his volume and cardio in a five-round fight will be too much for Lawler. However, he acknowledges the uncertainty around Diaz's long layoff and conditioning, making this a low-confidence pick.

"i do kind of see nick diaz getting to him down the stretch this is a five round fight"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Robbie Lawler

Jacob picks Lawler, citing his recent activity and that he hasn't been finished in his losses. He thinks Lawler will look sharper and that Diaz may struggle early after the layoff. Jacob doesn't love the pick but leans Lawler.

Jacob placed a bet on the fight going the distance at +105. He also agrees with more more on Monkey Knife Fight due to five rounds.
"my pick's actually going to be Robbie"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 25, 2021 (fight day)
Nick Diaz

The host leans towards Nick Diaz by fourth-round TKO. He believes Diaz's durability and pace will be key in a five-round fight. He expects Diaz to weather Lawler's early storm and then put it on him later. He notes that both fighters have question marks and advises against betting this fight, but likes the over 2.5 rounds. He thinks Diaz's legendary chin will hold up.

Over 2.5 rounds at -200
"i'm gonna go nick diaz probably round four tko"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Robbie Lawler

Paul picks Lawler, acknowledging the uncertainty around Diaz's form and motivation. He notes Diaz hasn't won in 10 years and looked poor against Anderson Silva. He expects Lawler to be in shape and possibly use wrestling. He is interested in the weigh-ins for clues.

"i think robbie lawler that's where the money seems to be moving in right now robbie lawler would be my pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Robbie Lawler

The MMA Guru picks Robbie Lawler over Nick Diaz, despite acknowledging the possibility of a Diaz win. He cites Diaz's six-year layoff and questionable lifestyle, while Lawler has been active and trains daily. He expects Lawler to come out explosive and finish Diaz by first-round TKO, possibly with calf kicks. He notes that Lawler sees this as a retirement opportunity and will be motivated. He also mentions that Diaz's boxing-heavy style leaves him vulnerable to leg kicks.

first round tko, calf kicks
"i'm gonna go with robbie lawler here ... i think lawler's going to come out real explosive and i think he's going to get a first round ko over nick diaz"
LOSS vs Neil Magny
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · Aug 29, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Neil Magny 0 26 of 45 57% 41 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:33
Robbie Lawler 0 62 of 88 70% 116 of 144 4 of 7 57% 0 0 8:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Neil Magny 0 8 of 8 100% 12 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:35
Robbie Lawler 0 11 of 11 100% 40 of 42 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:40
2 Neil Magny 0 7 of 14 50% 9 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robbie Lawler 0 16 of 21 76% 32 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:25
3 Neil Magny 0 11 of 23 47% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Robbie Lawler 0 35 of 56 62% 44 of 65 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Neil Magny 26 of 45 57% 18 of 36 4 of 5 4 of 4 15 of 33 6 of 6 5 of 6
Robbie Lawler 62 of 88 70% 36 of 61 21 of 22 5 of 5 39 of 63 16 of 18 7 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Neil Magny 8 of 8 100% 5 of 5 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 4 2 of 2 2 of 2
Robbie Lawler 11 of 11 100% 1 of 1 9 of 9 1 of 1 3 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 6
2 Neil Magny 7 of 14 50% 6 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 8 2 of 2 3 of 4
Robbie Lawler 16 of 21 76% 12 of 17 3 of 3 1 of 1 10 of 15 5 of 5 1 of 1
3 Neil Magny 11 of 23 47% 7 of 18 2 of 3 2 of 2 9 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 35 of 56 62% 23 of 43 9 of 10 3 of 3 26 of 45 9 of 11 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Big Brady picks Magny, believing Lawler is on the back end of his career and hesitant to throw. He thinks Magny will use his length and reach to pick Lawler apart from range and win a decision. He notes Lawler's only path to victory is a knockout, but doubts Lawler still has that power.

looking at the magni decision prop
"give me neil magne to win this fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 29, 2020 (fight day)
Robbie Lawler

Daniel Levi picks Robbie Lawler at plus money, arguing that Lawler's level of competition has been much higher than Magny's recent opponents. He believes Lawler will crack Magny with hard shots in the first round, possibly getting a knockout, and that Magny's cardio advantage may only show in the third round. He acknowledges the risk of Lawler being past his prime but sees value in the underdog line.

plus 200 line, value on the underdog
"we're looking at a plus 200 line i'm going with robbie lower to get back on track here man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Aug 28, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Neil Magny

Magny has good cardio, reach, and a clinch game that can stifle Lawler. Lawler is on a three-fight skid and has been out over a year; his form is uncertain. Magny should grind out a decision, but the -235 line is too high given Lawler's potential if he shows up with a leg-kick-heavy game plan.

"i do think that we will see neil magni grind out this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 23, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Neil Magny

The host picks Neil Magny, stating that Lawler's only chance is an early KO, but Lawler hasn't had a KO finish on the feet since Jake Ellenberger. He believes Magny will outrange Lawler with jabs, front kicks, and leg kicks, and that Lawler is injury-prone. He considers Magny a safe bet.

guaranteed money
"i'm gonna go with neil madney getting a job done i think that's guaranteed money kind of"
LOSS vs Colby Covington
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Lawler · Aug 03, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Colby Covington 0 179 of 515 34% 201 of 541 10 of 18 55% 0 0 8:42
Robbie Lawler 0 78 of 167 46% 82 of 171 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Colby Covington 0 13 of 29 44% 24 of 41 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:57
Robbie Lawler 0 4 of 18 22% 5 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Colby Covington 0 33 of 105 31% 36 of 108 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:18
Robbie Lawler 0 6 of 7 85% 6 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Colby Covington 0 41 of 117 35% 43 of 122 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:51
Robbie Lawler 0 23 of 48 47% 25 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Colby Covington 0 51 of 130 39% 56 of 135 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:27
Robbie Lawler 0 22 of 42 52% 23 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Colby Covington 0 41 of 134 30% 42 of 135 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
Robbie Lawler 0 23 of 52 44% 23 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Colby Covington 179 of 515 34% 128 of 454 20 of 28 31 of 33 154 of 477 25 of 38 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 78 of 167 46% 61 of 144 10 of 16 7 of 7 66 of 152 12 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Colby Covington 13 of 29 44% 10 of 26 2 of 2 1 of 1 8 of 21 5 of 8 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 4 of 18 22% 2 of 12 1 of 5 1 of 1 3 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Colby Covington 33 of 105 31% 26 of 96 2 of 3 5 of 6 28 of 98 5 of 7 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 6 of 7 85% 4 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Colby Covington 41 of 117 35% 24 of 96 5 of 8 12 of 13 36 of 108 5 of 9 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 23 of 48 47% 17 of 42 2 of 2 4 of 4 19 of 44 4 of 4 0 of 0
4 Colby Covington 51 of 130 39% 38 of 115 4 of 6 9 of 9 44 of 121 7 of 9 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 22 of 42 52% 19 of 39 2 of 2 1 of 1 15 of 35 7 of 7 0 of 0
5 Colby Covington 41 of 134 30% 30 of 121 7 of 9 4 of 4 38 of 129 3 of 5 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 23 of 52 44% 19 of 46 4 of 6 0 of 0 23 of 51 0 of 1 0 of 0
LOSS vs Ben Askren
Technical Submission (bulldog choke) R1 3:20 · UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · Mar 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ben Askren 0 26 of 29 89% 30 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:33
Robbie Lawler 0 0 of 1 0% 3 of 5 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ben Askren 0 26 of 29 89% 30 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:33
Robbie Lawler 0 0 of 1 0% 3 of 5 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ben Askren 26 of 29 89% 21 of 24 5 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 2 9 of 9 16 of 18
Robbie Lawler 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ben Askren 26 of 29 89% 21 of 24 5 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 2 9 of 9 16 of 18
Robbie Lawler 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC on Fox: Lawler vs. dos Anjos · Dec 16, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael dos Anjos 0 86 of 212 40% 137 of 267 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:24
Robbie Lawler 0 172 of 291 59% 219 of 343 2 of 7 28% 0 0 7:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael dos Anjos 0 14 of 40 35% 18 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:14
Robbie Lawler 0 19 of 49 38% 31 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:34
2 Rafael dos Anjos 0 34 of 74 45% 36 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Robbie Lawler 0 58 of 97 59% 60 of 99 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
3 Rafael dos Anjos 0 16 of 26 61% 29 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:13
Robbie Lawler 0 19 of 28 67% 40 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:12
4 Rafael dos Anjos 0 11 of 40 27% 18 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Robbie Lawler 0 39 of 63 61% 44 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:31
5 Rafael dos Anjos 0 11 of 32 34% 36 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robbie Lawler 0 37 of 54 68% 44 of 61 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael dos Anjos 86 of 212 40% 53 of 171 32 of 40 1 of 1 48 of 159 38 of 53 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 172 of 291 59% 100 of 199 48 of 64 24 of 28 104 of 203 58 of 78 10 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael dos Anjos 14 of 40 35% 6 of 28 8 of 12 0 of 0 7 of 29 7 of 11 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 19 of 49 38% 2 of 25 9 of 15 8 of 9 10 of 35 9 of 14 0 of 0
2 Rafael dos Anjos 34 of 74 45% 23 of 61 10 of 12 1 of 1 24 of 61 10 of 13 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 58 of 97 59% 39 of 73 13 of 16 6 of 8 51 of 88 7 of 9 0 of 0
3 Rafael dos Anjos 16 of 26 61% 4 of 12 12 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 8 15 of 18 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 19 of 28 67% 15 of 19 3 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 7 6 of 11 10 of 10
4 Rafael dos Anjos 11 of 40 27% 10 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 35 3 of 5 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 39 of 63 61% 24 of 46 10 of 11 5 of 6 23 of 44 16 of 19 0 of 0
5 Rafael dos Anjos 11 of 32 34% 10 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 26 3 of 6 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 37 of 54 68% 20 of 36 13 of 14 4 of 4 17 of 29 20 of 25 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · Jul 29, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robbie Lawler 0 77 of 156 49% 85 of 164 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:21
Donald Cerrone 0 82 of 166 49% 99 of 185 1 of 10 10% 0 0 1:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robbie Lawler 0 37 of 57 64% 42 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:21
Donald Cerrone 0 15 of 25 60% 28 of 38 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:33
2 Robbie Lawler 0 9 of 23 39% 9 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 29 of 69 42% 31 of 73 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Robbie Lawler 0 31 of 76 40% 34 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 38 of 72 52% 40 of 74 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robbie Lawler 77 of 156 49% 47 of 116 28 of 37 2 of 3 35 of 101 42 of 55 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 82 of 166 49% 50 of 127 26 of 32 6 of 7 56 of 125 25 of 40 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robbie Lawler 37 of 57 64% 24 of 42 12 of 14 1 of 1 6 of 17 31 of 40 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 15 of 25 60% 3 of 12 11 of 12 1 of 1 6 of 15 8 of 9 1 of 1
2 Robbie Lawler 9 of 23 39% 4 of 15 4 of 6 1 of 2 9 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 29 of 69 42% 18 of 54 7 of 10 4 of 5 26 of 60 3 of 9 0 of 0
3 Robbie Lawler 31 of 76 40% 19 of 59 12 of 17 0 of 0 20 of 61 11 of 15 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 38 of 72 52% 29 of 61 8 of 10 1 of 1 24 of 50 14 of 22 0 of 0
Carlos Condit - Fight History
LOSS vs Max Griffin
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Jul 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Max Griffin 0 63 of 176 35% 66 of 179 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Carlos Condit 1 93 of 171 54% 95 of 173 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Max Griffin 0 13 of 42 30% 13 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Condit 1 34 of 61 55% 34 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Max Griffin 0 28 of 68 41% 28 of 68 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Carlos Condit 0 29 of 48 60% 30 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Max Griffin 0 22 of 66 33% 25 of 69 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Carlos Condit 0 30 of 62 48% 31 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Max Griffin 63 of 176 35% 35 of 134 17 of 30 11 of 12 61 of 173 2 of 3 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 93 of 171 54% 59 of 129 6 of 11 28 of 31 81 of 153 2 of 2 10 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Max Griffin 13 of 42 30% 3 of 27 6 of 11 4 of 4 13 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 34 of 61 55% 18 of 41 0 of 1 16 of 19 24 of 45 0 of 0 10 of 16
2 Max Griffin 28 of 68 41% 17 of 51 7 of 12 4 of 5 28 of 67 0 of 1 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 29 of 48 60% 18 of 34 2 of 5 9 of 9 28 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Max Griffin 22 of 66 33% 15 of 56 4 of 7 3 of 3 20 of 64 2 of 2 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 30 of 62 48% 23 of 54 4 of 5 3 of 3 29 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Carlos Condit vs. Max Griffin

Round 1
The prelims will be capped off by a welterweight battle that sees “The Natural Born Killer” Condit (32-13, 9-9 UFC) try to go on a three-fight win streak against the heavy-handed Griffin (17-8, 5-6 UFC). Depending on the result, either Condit will fall below .500 in the UFC or Griffin will rise to that level, barring an unusual turn of events. Referee Marc Goddard will keep a watchful eye on the violence that is about to be bestowed in the cage, and the fighters do not touch gloves before inflicting said violence. Griffin charges out of his corner to attack, with a low kick and several high kicks to sends the former WEC champ backing away. Condit greets him with a few punches to back him off, and he puts together a combination and a head kick that gets slapped away. Griffin chops down Condit’s lead leg multiple times, and Condit’s calf is already reddening from them. Condit fires off a body kick, and he cannot get out of the way from another leg kick. Griffin walks through a punch to land a heavier one, and his leg kick that follows spins Condit around. “The Natural Born Killer” does not block the kicks or check them, and he tries to go after Griffin with his own but Griffin is right there with another. Condit turns about with another few kicks, and the damage is mounting fast as Condit appears to be struggling with it. Condit chips at the calf and then the body, but he absorbs one more low kick. Condit is forced to switch stances, and Griffin greets the change of position with one on the other leg. Condit marches forward to attack, only to get his lead leg chopped down beneath him. Condit ducks down into a right hand, and Griffin slips it and comes back with an overhand right. Condit just comes up short with a counter right hand when Griffin advances, and he does kick the body successful on the way out. Griffin’s leg kick makes Condit pick it up and try to move with it, and the ex-champ strides in and kicks the body. Condit’s calves are swelling up fast, and he tries to connect with a spinning kick but gets pushed back. Griffin blasts him with a right hand, sending Condit crashing into the wall and down to the ground. Griffin looks for a finish, delivering some heavy ground-and-pound, but Condit threatens with an offensive guard and survives to fight his way back to his feet. Condit jumps at his foe with a flying knee, and Griffin sits down on a leg kick and takes a right hand on the chin. Condit marches forward to brawl, and Griffin is there to greet him until he ducks out of the way to avoid most of the danger before the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin

Round 2
The second round begins with both fighters meeting in the center of the Octagon, but neither commit to any strikes until Condit launches a head kick. Griffin blocks it and targets Condit’s lead leg with impunity, and the former champ can do nothing but take it. Condit takes a traditional martial arts stance as he looks to wind up a side kick, and he steps in to clinch and drill Griffin in the chin with a knee. Condit catches Griffin on the end of a right hand to send “Pain” staggering back, but it is likely out of balance and not damage. Griffin gains his composure and fires off a right hand, and he beats Condit to the punch with a follow-up jab. Condit ducks down into a leg kick, and he gets off a body kick but is countered on the way out. Condit checks a leg kick for the first time, and he whiffs on a body kick but sprints forward with a trip and throw takedown. Griffin manages to get back to his feet, only to meet a right hand from Condit. Condit sits down on a right hand as well, and a left to the body follows. Griffin keeps his right hand up high to counter Condit, and he takes a kick to the body while watching Condit’s movement. Condit’s pace appears to be growing while Griffin’s is decreasing, and Condit advances with a spinning kick that bounces off his intended target. Griffin scores a leg kick, and Condit ducks down to trip his foe but cannot achieve it. Condit unloads with several punches to the head and body, and he marks up Griffin with a clean right hand. Condit reaches forward with an elbow, a right hand, and a cartwheel kick that comes up short. Condit ignores a low kick to crack Griffin on the chin, and “The Natural Born Killer” ignores a leg kick so that he can continue to strike. Griffin times Condit when Condit darts forward with a right hand, and Condit leads the dance and boots “Pain” in the side with a kick. Griffin pushes Condit away and the two jab at the same time, and Condit slips and delivers a right hand. Condit dips in with a left hand and a head kick, and the round ends when Griffin kicks him back.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Condit
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Condit
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Condit

Round 3
Between rounds, we can see the damage on Condit’s nose, but he pays it no mind and is ready for the final frame. Condit offers a glove touch, and Griffin pushes his hand away and tries to get off an overhand right. Condit ducks down and clocks Griffin in the chin with a head kick, but the Californian eats it like a steak. Griffin blitzes forward to attack, and he clubs Condit with a few punches to make “The Natural Born Killer” fall into the cage wall. Condit catches a body kick, and he pushes Griffin over to force Griffin to roll through and get back up. As Griffin tries to stand up, Condit batters him with strikes, until Griffin gathers his thoughts and starts to land hard hooks. Griffin scores single punches square on the chin, and Condit walks through them and throws right back at him. Condit slips one such punch to land a left hand, and Griffin stands tall and scores again. A three-punch combination stands Condit up, but Condit is not concerned and instead is fired up as he strings together a length combination to back Griffin up. At the end of a salvo, Condit tags Griffin with a right hand, and Griffin looks for a right hand counter but comes up short. Condit jabs out and flusters Griffin for a moment, before stepping in with an elbow. Condit advances with long, stinging jabs, and he walks face-first into a right hand that he completely ignores. Condit digs a left hand to the body and draws a pained reaction out of “Pain,” and he shoots in for a takedown to keep Griffin guessing. The takedown does not succeed, but Condit is able to knee in the body a few times. Griffin smashes Condit in the face with a right hand, and he bullies Condit into the fence and hits a takedown. Griffin takes half guard, but Condit rolls and is able to stand up after briefly threatening with an armbar. Griffin clings on to him for one final takedown try, and Condit attacks with a kimura and a guillotine but neither are there. Condit drops down to attack a leg of his opponent, and he takes Griffin’s back at the bell. This is going to be a close one.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (29-28 Griffin)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (29-28 Griffin)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (29-28 Griffin)

The Official Result
Max Griffin def. Carlos Condit via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Angelo picks Griffin despite rooting for Condit. He notes Condit is slowing down at 37, while Griffin is faster and stronger. He thinks Griffin's speed and power will overcome Condit's technical advantages. He has Griffin in his DraftKings lineup.

"i have max griffin winning this fight uh i'll be rooting for carlos condit kind of because i also do have max griffin in my draftkings lineup"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Big Brady picks Max Griffin to win by decision. He emphasizes that Griffin should use his wrestling, as Condit has been taken down in every fight where opponents attempted takedowns. He notes Griffin averages nearly two takedowns per 15 minutes with 51% accuracy. He thinks the striking will be close but the takedowns will be the difference. He mentions Condit's recent wins over Court McGee and Matt Brown but notes McGee didn't wrestle, which was a mistake.

"i'm going to take max griffin to win i'm going to take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Cody picks Griffin but prefers the submission prop at 20-1 on DraftKings. He notes Griffin's wrestling advantage and believes his best path is takedowns and submissions. He thinks Griffin can win by submission despite no UFC subs, citing Condit's vulnerability.

Griffin by submission at +2000 on DraftKings; Griffin by decision at +135
"give me the 20 to one on a minus 190 favorite in what i believe is his best path to victory"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

Daniel Levi picks Carlos Condit as a slight lean, acknowledging it's an illogical pick. He admits Condit is past his prime and that Griffin probably should win by decision using top control. However, he respects Condit's veteran savvy and believes he can do something sneaky to pull off an upset. He notes that Condit still has fight in him, as seen in the Oliveira fight where he almost got a submission. He is not confident in the pick.

"i'm gonna i'm gonna edge connor to do something sneaky and upset a lot of people"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

Jacob picks Condit, citing his recent performances and value at 7500. He notes Condit has never been knocked out and has looked great against Matt Brown. He thinks Condit's experience and takedowns will be key. He compares Condit's potential run to Glover Teixeira's late-career surge.

"i honestly think carlos conda at 7 500 is one of the best values on this card"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Max Griffin

I like Max Griffin here. Condit's takedown defense is terrible (35% defense), and Griffin has good pressure and takedowns. Condit hasn't submitted anyone in the UFC, and Griffin's cardio is good enough to grind out a decision. I expect Griffin to land takedowns and control the fight, winning by decision. The line might seem wide, but I trust Griffin to exploit Condit's weakness.

Griffin by decision, over 2.5 rounds
"i like max griffin here... i think griffin by decision the line might seem a little bit wide to some people which is why i understand excuse me why some people might be taking carlos conant in the spot but …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Paul picks Griffin by decision at +135. He notes Griffin's wrestling and volume striking, and Condit's durability. He thinks Griffin will use takedowns to secure rounds. He doesn't like the moneyline at -190.

Griffin by decision at +135
"i'm gonna go with a griffin by decision but uh you know i the confidence level not not where i'd wanted just to slam that"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2021 (fight day)
Carlos Condit

The Guru picks Condit by 29-28 unanimous decision in an upset. He expects Griffin to win the first round by landing big shots on Condit's chin, but Condit's chin will hold up. As the fight goes on, Condit will invest in body shots, leg kicks, and takedowns, mixing in grappling and counter hooks. Griffin will become boxing-heavy and head-hunt, while Condit circles out and lands. The Guru sees Condit taking the second and third rounds with a more varied attack.

"i'm gonna go with carlos condit here by decision in an upset i think max griffin is good i think he's gonna be doing good early in this fight but as the rounds go on i think condit will make …"
WIN vs Matt Brown
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Holloway vs. Kattar · Jan 16, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Condit 0 39 of 88 44% 157 of 209 2 of 4 50% 0 1 4:52
Matt Brown 0 28 of 37 75% 37 of 52 1 of 6 16% 0 0 6:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Condit 0 6 of 22 27% 60 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:23
Matt Brown 0 9 of 14 64% 15 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:36
2 Carlos Condit 0 21 of 44 47% 58 of 83 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:25
Matt Brown 0 11 of 15 73% 12 of 16 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:37
3 Carlos Condit 0 12 of 22 54% 39 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:04
Matt Brown 0 8 of 8 100% 10 of 13 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Condit 39 of 88 44% 30 of 73 4 of 8 5 of 7 22 of 68 5 of 5 12 of 15
Matt Brown 28 of 37 75% 13 of 22 11 of 11 4 of 4 11 of 18 8 of 8 9 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Condit 6 of 22 27% 3 of 16 1 of 3 2 of 3 3 of 17 0 of 0 3 of 5
Matt Brown 9 of 14 64% 6 of 11 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 7
2 Carlos Condit 21 of 44 47% 17 of 38 2 of 3 2 of 3 14 of 36 0 of 0 7 of 8
Matt Brown 11 of 15 73% 3 of 7 6 of 6 2 of 2 6 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 0
3 Carlos Condit 12 of 22 54% 10 of 19 1 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 15 5 of 5 2 of 2
Matt Brown 8 of 8 100% 4 of 4 4 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 4
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

Big Brady picks Carlos Condit to win inside the distance, specifically by second-round knockout. He notes Condit's 90% finish rate and that he has never been knocked out, while Brown has been knocked out three times and is weak to the body. He believes Brown's durability is not what it once was and that Condit can finish him. He also mentions that Brown has been submitted 10 times, but Condit's path is via knockout.

second round knockout
"i'm going to say second round knockout for condit there"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown as a slight underdog, calling it a 50-55 fight. He notes Condit's last win over Court McGee was unimpressive, while Brown has knockout power and a history of finishing fights. He expects Condit to try to point-fight, but Brown's pressure and body shots could be key. He admits low confidence.

"i'll take the plus 145 dog i'll go with matt brown"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Matt Brown's pressure style is a bad matchup for Condit, who struggles when opponents stay in his face and take away his space. Brown will push forward, use dirty boxing, and grind Condit against the cage. Condit's takedown defense is poor and he often relies on his back, but Brown is not a submission threat. Condit's best chance is on the feet with kicks, but Brown's durability and pressure should earn him a decision. The line should be closer to even, so plus money on Brown is value.

Matt Brown by decision is the most likely outcome; a TKO is possible but less likely given Condit's durability.
"I think matt brown given his style and what we've seen from him as of late... i would line it a little bit closer to an even type of fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Condit over Matt Brown, citing Condit's superior chin and striking. He notes Brown is losing his chin and coming off a TKO loss, while Condit has never been knocked out. He predicts Condit will win by third-round TKO once Brown gasses. He also mentions Condit's historical robbery against Robbie Lawler.

third round TKO
"i'm gonna go with carlos condit's chin sticking with him in this fight and him getting a tko finish in the third round once matt brown starts to gas a little bit from the stand up"
WIN vs Court McGee
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana · Oct 04, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Condit 1 88 of 230 38% 88 of 230 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Court McGee 0 84 of 182 46% 84 of 182 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Condit 1 15 of 38 39% 15 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Court McGee 0 31 of 63 49% 31 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carlos Condit 0 30 of 71 42% 30 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Court McGee 0 26 of 56 46% 26 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Carlos Condit 0 43 of 121 35% 43 of 121 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Court McGee 0 27 of 63 42% 27 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Condit 88 of 230 38% 50 of 173 17 of 34 21 of 23 87 of 228 0 of 0 1 of 2
Court McGee 84 of 182 46% 9 of 73 28 of 51 47 of 58 84 of 182 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Condit 15 of 38 39% 5 of 19 4 of 12 6 of 7 15 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Court McGee 31 of 63 49% 3 of 22 11 of 17 17 of 24 31 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carlos Condit 30 of 71 42% 17 of 54 7 of 11 6 of 6 30 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Court McGee 26 of 56 46% 3 of 19 6 of 17 17 of 20 26 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Carlos Condit 43 of 121 35% 28 of 100 6 of 11 9 of 10 42 of 119 0 of 0 1 of 2
Court McGee 27 of 63 42% 3 of 32 11 of 17 13 of 14 27 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 30, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Court McGee

Big Brady picks Court McGee to win by decision. He notes McGee's clear path to victory via takedowns, as Condit has poor takedown defense. He thinks Condit's only chance is a submission off his back, but McGee has never been submitted.

"give me court mcgee to win a pretty pretty ugly decision here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

Daniel leans with Condit, reasoning that McGee's training camp was subpar (mainly drilling with his 13-year-old son) and that Condit has had moments of success against higher-level competition. He acknowledges Condit's five-fight losing streak but thinks this is a winnable fight, predicting a split decision. He notes that McGee's takedowns could be a factor but Condit might capitalize on submissions.

Condit by split decision; mentions McGee's camp issues; notes Condit's submission threat off his back
"i think conde might actually this is the one fight con that can win ben saunders beat this guy so i'm gonna go with carlos conde via split decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

The host leans toward Court McGee due to Condit's poor takedown defense and McGee's durability, but he is not confident enough to bet at -135. He predicts a decision win for McGee but says he would only bet if McGee were plus money.

Over 2.5 rounds -250 (not recommended)
"my head definitely says court mcgee... but even at minus 135 i can't take the shot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

The Guru picks Carlos Condit, noting his good ground game and submission threats against Michael Chiesa. He believes Condit is naturally bigger and can push the pace, and predicts a submission by armbar in the second round or a decision. He sees nothing in McGee's game to suggest he can beat Condit.

Prediction: submission (armbar) round 2 or decision
"i'm going to be going with carlos condit getting a job done taller guy naturally bigger welterweight can push the pace as well"
LOSS vs Michael Chiesa
Submission (kimura) R2 0:56 · UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · Dec 29, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Chiesa 0 5 of 24 20% 20 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:18
Carlos Condit 0 10 of 22 45% 16 of 33 4 of 5 80% 1 0 4:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Chiesa 0 4 of 15 26% 19 of 30 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:18
Carlos Condit 0 9 of 17 52% 13 of 26 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:42
2 Michael Chiesa 0 1 of 9 11% 1 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Condit 0 1 of 5 20% 3 of 7 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Chiesa 5 of 24 20% 2 of 18 2 of 5 1 of 1 2 of 18 2 of 4 1 of 2
Carlos Condit 10 of 22 45% 8 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 8 2 of 2 6 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Chiesa 4 of 15 26% 2 of 11 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 9 2 of 4 1 of 2
Carlos Condit 9 of 17 52% 7 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 12
2 Michael Chiesa 1 of 9 11% 0 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Alex Oliveira
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 3:17 · UFC on Fox: Poirier vs. Gaethje · Apr 14, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Oliveira 0 12 of 18 66% 42 of 49 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:52
Carlos Condit 0 9 of 23 39% 22 of 37 3 of 3 100% 1 0 3:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Oliveira 0 5 of 6 83% 28 of 30 0 of 0 --- 1 1 2:01
Carlos Condit 0 1 of 6 16% 9 of 14 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:34
2 Alex Oliveira 0 7 of 12 58% 14 of 19 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:51
Carlos Condit 0 8 of 17 47% 13 of 23 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Oliveira 12 of 18 66% 6 of 12 2 of 2 4 of 4 6 of 11 0 of 0 6 of 7
Carlos Condit 9 of 23 39% 8 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 0 8 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Oliveira 5 of 6 83% 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 4 4 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
Carlos Condit 1 of 6 16% 0 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Alex Oliveira 7 of 12 58% 5 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 6
Carlos Condit 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 14
LOSS vs Neil Magny
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm · Dec 30, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Neil Magny 0 37 of 112 33% 64 of 140 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Carlos Condit 0 32 of 114 28% 64 of 150 6 of 9 66% 0 0 5:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Neil Magny 0 10 of 31 32% 18 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Carlos Condit 0 9 of 35 25% 15 of 42 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:40
2 Neil Magny 0 10 of 20 50% 28 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Carlos Condit 0 6 of 23 26% 27 of 47 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:47
3 Neil Magny 0 17 of 61 27% 18 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Carlos Condit 0 17 of 56 30% 22 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Neil Magny 37 of 112 33% 10 of 69 10 of 21 17 of 22 32 of 103 5 of 9 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 32 of 114 28% 14 of 83 13 of 21 5 of 10 24 of 102 6 of 9 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Neil Magny 10 of 31 32% 3 of 20 2 of 5 5 of 6 7 of 27 3 of 4 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 9 of 35 25% 3 of 23 6 of 9 0 of 3 6 of 29 2 of 4 1 of 2
2 Neil Magny 10 of 20 50% 3 of 11 3 of 5 4 of 4 8 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 6 of 23 26% 2 of 18 3 of 3 1 of 2 4 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Neil Magny 17 of 61 27% 4 of 38 5 of 11 8 of 12 17 of 58 0 of 3 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 17 of 56 30% 9 of 42 4 of 9 4 of 5 14 of 53 2 of 2 1 of 1
LOSS vs Demian Maia
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 1:52 · UFC on Fox: Maia vs. Condit · Aug 27, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Demian Maia 0 1 of 1 100% 5 of 5 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:19
Carlos Condit 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Demian Maia 0 1 of 1 100% 5 of 5 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:19
Carlos Condit 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Demian Maia 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1
Carlos Condit 1 of 6 16% 1 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Demian Maia 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1
Carlos Condit 1 of 6 16% 1 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 1
LOSS vs Robbie Lawler
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 195: Lawler vs. Condit · Jan 02, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robbie Lawler 1 92 of 177 51% 93 of 178 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
Carlos Condit 0 176 of 495 35% 177 of 497 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robbie Lawler 0 12 of 18 66% 12 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Condit 0 28 of 75 37% 28 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Robbie Lawler 1 10 of 23 43% 11 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Carlos Condit 0 17 of 71 23% 18 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Robbie Lawler 0 11 of 26 42% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Carlos Condit 0 22 of 78 28% 22 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
4 Robbie Lawler 0 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Condit 0 47 of 98 47% 47 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Robbie Lawler 0 53 of 92 57% 53 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Condit 0 62 of 173 35% 62 of 173 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robbie Lawler 92 of 177 51% 82 of 167 7 of 7 3 of 3 76 of 153 14 of 20 2 of 4
Carlos Condit 176 of 495 35% 96 of 372 47 of 79 33 of 44 149 of 447 27 of 48 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robbie Lawler 12 of 18 66% 9 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 28 of 75 37% 9 of 52 9 of 12 10 of 11 23 of 67 5 of 8 0 of 0
2 Robbie Lawler 10 of 23 43% 8 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 4
Carlos Condit 17 of 71 23% 6 of 49 4 of 11 7 of 11 16 of 70 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Robbie Lawler 11 of 26 42% 9 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 22 3 of 4 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 22 of 78 28% 6 of 50 9 of 20 7 of 8 20 of 76 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Robbie Lawler 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 47 of 98 47% 27 of 73 14 of 17 6 of 8 39 of 86 8 of 12 0 of 0
5 Robbie Lawler 53 of 92 57% 50 of 89 2 of 2 1 of 1 44 of 78 9 of 14 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 62 of 173 35% 48 of 148 11 of 19 3 of 6 51 of 148 11 of 25 0 of 0