Career Averages - Nate Diaz
Career Averages - Michael Johnson
Nate Diaz - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 101 of 217 | 46% | 101 of 217 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 80 of 172 | 46% | 80 of 172 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 22 of 51 | 43% | 22 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 19 of 45 | 42% | 19 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 28 of 59 | 47% | 28 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 20 of 51 | 39% | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 26 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 30 of 51 | 58% | 30 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 25 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 11 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Diaz | 101 of 217 | 46% | 71 of 178 | 21 of 30 | 9 of 9 | 99 of 214 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 80 of 172 | 46% | 23 of 106 | 23 of 27 | 34 of 39 | 80 of 172 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Diaz | 22 of 51 | 43% | 12 of 36 | 6 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 19 of 45 | 42% | 5 of 28 | 7 of 8 | 7 of 9 | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nate Diaz | 28 of 59 | 47% | 19 of 49 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 28 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 20 of 51 | 39% | 5 of 35 | 6 of 6 | 9 of 10 | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nate Diaz | 26 of 56 | 46% | 21 of 48 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 53 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 30 of 51 | 58% | 12 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 15 | 30 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Nate Diaz | 25 of 51 | 49% | 19 of 45 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 11 of 25 | 44% | 1 of 12 | 5 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Li Jingliang, citing Tony Ferguson's recent knockout and fast turnaround. He thinks Ferguson's chin is compromised and Jingliang's power and feints will confuse him. He notes Ferguson looked good against Chandler but was put out badly, and the three-month turnaround is too soon.
Big Brady picks Li Jingliang to win by first-round knockout, expressing concern for Tony Ferguson's durability after taking massive damage in recent fights. He notes Ferguson is 38, moving up in weight, and has been knocked out brutally by Chandler. He highlights Li's power, having knocked out tough fighters like Ponzinibbio and Salikhov, and predicts an early finish.
Cody is confident that Khamzat Chimaev will win, noting that Chimaev is a massive favorite and that Nate Diaz is an undersized former 155-pounder. He believes Chimaev's size and strength will be too much, and that Diaz's jiu-jitsu won't be a factor. Cody mentions that the only value is in props like Chimaev over 1.5 takedowns, and he doesn't see Diaz winning even one out of ten times.
Daniel Levi picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, citing Chimaev's wrestling and power as key factors. He acknowledges Diaz's durability and ability to survive, but believes Chimaev's improvements and pacing will lead to victory. Levi notes that Diaz's age and scar tissue could be issues, and he expects Chimaev to dominate with ground and pound. He is not betting the moneyline due to the heavy juice, but is confident in Chimaev's win.
Jacob picks Li Jingliang, emphasizing his feints and angles will give Ferguson PTSD. He thinks Ferguson will be gun-shy and react big to feints. He notes Ferguson could wrestle but doubts he will, and even if he does, Jingliang's takedown defense may hold. He calls it a bad matchup for Ferguson.
The host is extremely confident in Khamzat Chimaev, expecting him to take Nate Diaz down immediately and smash him on the ground. He dismisses Diaz's durability and jiu-jitsu, citing Chimaev's wrestling and size. He took under 1.5 rounds at +120 and suggests Chimaev round one at +165.
Paul picks Chimaev to win but expresses concerns about his cardio and persona. He notes that Chimaev's fight with Gilbert Burns showed he is human and may have cardio issues, and that the five-round fight could favor Diaz if Chimaev tires. However, he believes Chimaev has learned from that fight and will hold down Diaz more easily. Paul also mentions the over 1.5 rounds and over on takedowns as props.
The MMA Guru picks Tony Ferguson to win by 48-47 decision. He predicts Ferguson wins rounds 1, 2, and 4, while Diaz wins round 3, and round 5 is a stalemate. Ferguson chews up Diaz's leg and body with teeps and front kicks, lands elbows that cut Diaz, and freestyles with 360 body shots. Diaz has moments, including a takedown in round 3, but Ferguson scrambles out and lands more. The fight ends with both swinging, but Ferguson's output edges him the win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Edwards | 0 | 77 of 132 | 58% | 83 of 139 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 4:59 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 76 of 162 | 46% | 130 of 223 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 14 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 19 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 18 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:09 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 13 of 30 | 43% | 29 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 3 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 13 of 15 | 86% | 17 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 20 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 4 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 18 of 36 | 50% | 18 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 19 of 45 | 42% | 20 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 5 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 31 of 52 | 59% | 42 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Edwards | 77 of 132 | 58% | 48 of 97 | 6 of 12 | 23 of 23 | 68 of 118 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 8 |
| Nate Diaz | 76 of 162 | 46% | 52 of 129 | 16 of 21 | 8 of 12 | 66 of 152 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leon Edwards | 13 of 19 | 68% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Nate Diaz | 10 of 23 | 43% | 4 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 9 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Leon Edwards | 17 of 30 | 56% | 10 of 21 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 16 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Nate Diaz | 13 of 30 | 43% | 6 of 20 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Leon Edwards | 13 of 15 | 86% | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
| Nate Diaz | 3 of 12 | 25% | 1 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Leon Edwards | 18 of 36 | 50% | 10 of 26 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Diaz | 19 of 45 | 42% | 13 of 36 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Leon Edwards | 16 of 32 | 50% | 11 of 26 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Diaz | 31 of 52 | 59% | 28 of 48 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 25 of 46 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Leon Edwards to win by TKO or cut stoppage, citing Edwards' youth, striking advantage, and well-rounded game. He notes Diaz is past his prime and has taken significant damage. He expects Edwards to mix in takedowns and potentially finish Diaz, possibly due to a cut.
Cody is confident Edwards wins, likely by decision, as he is a decision machine and Diaz is durable. He likes the decision prop at +135 and notes Edwards' clinch work and ring IQ. He also mentions the possibility of a cut stoppage but thinks Edwards will systematically pick Diaz apart.
Daniel Levi picks Leon Edwards to win by decision, possibly via cut stoppage. He notes Edwards' technical striking and takedowns, and Diaz's tendency to cut easily. He warns that Edwards must not get into a brawl and should manage his cardio. He respects Diaz's toughness but thinks Edwards is too well-rounded.
Edwards is superior everywhere: striking, wrestling, and clinch work. He can take Diaz down and control him, or outstrike him at range. Diaz's only path is cumulative damage in later rounds, but Edwards' cardio is solid. Edwards likely wins a decision, as Diaz is durable and hard to finish. The line is wide for a reason.
Paul is also confident in Edwards, calling him the anchor of parlays. He thinks Edwards wins by decision and likes the decision prop. He notes Edwards' excellent clinch work and high ring IQ, and believes he will systematically pick apart Diaz.
The MMA Guru is extremely confident in Leon Edwards, calling it the fight he'd pick with his life on the line. He cites Edwards' superior striking, cardio, and grappling, and notes Diaz's lack of power at 170 and decline in cardio since going vegan. He predicts a third-round TKO via body kick, as Edwards will want a finish to secure a title shot.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge Masvidal | 2 | 112 of 179 | 62% | 114 of 184 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 6:56 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 43 of 104 | 41% | 125 of 194 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jorge Masvidal | 1 | 35 of 54 | 64% | 37 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:58 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 34 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Jorge Masvidal | 1 | 39 of 58 | 67% | 39 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 34 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 3 | Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 38 of 67 | 56% | 38 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:53 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 19 of 46 | 41% | 57 of 86 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge Masvidal | 112 of 179 | 62% | 78 of 136 | 27 of 35 | 7 of 8 | 52 of 92 | 20 of 25 | 40 of 62 |
| Nate Diaz | 43 of 104 | 41% | 23 of 74 | 12 of 21 | 8 of 9 | 33 of 91 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jorge Masvidal | 35 of 54 | 64% | 21 of 34 | 12 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 15 | 7 of 9 | 18 of 30 |
| Nate Diaz | 13 of 27 | 48% | 7 of 19 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jorge Masvidal | 39 of 58 | 67% | 29 of 47 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 32 | 11 of 13 | 10 of 13 |
| Nate Diaz | 11 of 31 | 35% | 4 of 21 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 27 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jorge Masvidal | 38 of 67 | 56% | 28 of 55 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 24 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 19 |
| Nate Diaz | 19 of 46 | 41% | 12 of 34 | 5 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 42 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 69 of 133 | 51% | 86 of 153 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 2 | 1:49 |
| Anthony Pettis | 1 | 114 of 201 | 56% | 205 of 306 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 5:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 14 of 31 | 45% | 23 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Pettis | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 62 of 88 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:22 | |
| 2 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 36 of 66 | 54% | 40 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Pettis | 0 | 54 of 100 | 54% | 65 of 114 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:49 | |
| 3 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 23 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 1:49 |
| Anthony Pettis | 1 | 38 of 59 | 64% | 78 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Diaz | 69 of 133 | 51% | 54 of 111 | 10 of 12 | 5 of 10 | 46 of 102 | 20 of 27 | 3 of 4 |
| Anthony Pettis | 114 of 201 | 56% | 94 of 172 | 16 of 23 | 4 of 6 | 51 of 109 | 43 of 63 | 20 of 29 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Diaz | 14 of 31 | 45% | 9 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 9 of 24 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Pettis | 22 of 42 | 52% | 15 of 33 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 23 | 6 of 9 | 7 of 10 | |
| 2 | Nate Diaz | 36 of 66 | 54% | 28 of 55 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 26 of 54 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Pettis | 54 of 100 | 54% | 45 of 87 | 7 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 29 of 63 | 25 of 37 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nate Diaz | 19 of 36 | 52% | 17 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 24 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 4 |
| Anthony Pettis | 38 of 59 | 64% | 34 of 52 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 13 of 23 | 12 of 17 | 13 of 19 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 166 of 343 | 48% | 252 of 435 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 5:50 |
| Nate Diaz | 3 | 164 of 286 | 57% | 197 of 322 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conor McGregor | 0 | 25 of 73 | 34% | 25 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nate Diaz | 1 | 34 of 58 | 58% | 34 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Conor McGregor | 0 | 37 of 76 | 48% | 51 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Nate Diaz | 2 | 34 of 70 | 48% | 36 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 3 | Conor McGregor | 0 | 49 of 87 | 56% | 79 of 117 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 26 of 45 | 57% | 37 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 4 | Conor McGregor | 0 | 36 of 63 | 57% | 48 of 76 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 46 of 76 | 60% | 56 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 | |
| 5 | Conor McGregor | 0 | 19 of 44 | 43% | 49 of 77 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:42 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 24 of 37 | 64% | 34 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor McGregor | 166 of 343 | 48% | 107 of 256 | 50 of 71 | 9 of 16 | 88 of 227 | 77 of 112 | 1 of 4 |
| Nate Diaz | 164 of 286 | 57% | 98 of 212 | 26 of 29 | 40 of 45 | 137 of 253 | 27 of 32 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conor McGregor | 25 of 73 | 34% | 11 of 49 | 6 of 11 | 8 of 13 | 25 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Diaz | 34 of 58 | 58% | 14 of 35 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 19 | 34 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Conor McGregor | 37 of 76 | 48% | 22 of 58 | 14 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 24 of 54 | 13 of 21 | 0 of 1 |
| Nate Diaz | 34 of 70 | 48% | 19 of 54 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 11 | 31 of 67 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Conor McGregor | 49 of 87 | 56% | 40 of 72 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 42 | 31 of 45 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Diaz | 26 of 45 | 57% | 17 of 35 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 22 of 41 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Conor McGregor | 36 of 63 | 57% | 22 of 45 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 36 | 19 of 27 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Diaz | 46 of 76 | 60% | 30 of 59 | 11 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 33 of 58 | 13 of 17 | 0 of 1 | |
| 5 | Conor McGregor | 19 of 44 | 43% | 12 of 32 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 22 | 14 of 19 | 1 of 3 |
| Nate Diaz | 24 of 37 | 64% | 18 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 29 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 61 of 140 | 43% | 66 of 145 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:39 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 77 of 152 | 50% | 89 of 169 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 28 of 74 | 37% | 32 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:35 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 23 of 62 | 37% | 26 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 2 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 33 of 66 | 50% | 34 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 54 of 90 | 60% | 63 of 101 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:47 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Diaz | 61 of 140 | 43% | 47 of 117 | 7 of 11 | 7 of 12 | 56 of 133 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 |
| Conor McGregor | 77 of 152 | 50% | 65 of 131 | 9 of 13 | 3 of 8 | 62 of 133 | 10 of 12 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Diaz | 28 of 74 | 37% | 18 of 58 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 10 | 26 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Conor McGregor | 23 of 62 | 37% | 16 of 50 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 6 | 23 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Nate Diaz | 33 of 66 | 50% | 29 of 59 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 30 of 62 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Conor McGregor | 54 of 90 | 60% | 49 of 81 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 39 of 72 | 10 of 12 | 5 of 6 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 103 of 301 | 34% | 104 of 303 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 153 of 300 | 51% | 157 of 304 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 30 of 94 | 31% | 30 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 21 of 66 | 31% | 21 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 37 of 99 | 37% | 37 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 69 of 124 | 55% | 69 of 124 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 36 of 108 | 33% | 37 of 110 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 63 of 110 | 57% | 67 of 114 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Diaz | 103 of 301 | 34% | 44 of 185 | 28 of 69 | 31 of 47 | 103 of 300 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 153 of 300 | 51% | 135 of 273 | 7 of 13 | 11 of 14 | 148 of 295 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Diaz | 30 of 94 | 31% | 5 of 45 | 10 of 28 | 15 of 21 | 30 of 94 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 21 of 66 | 31% | 17 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 21 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nate Diaz | 37 of 99 | 37% | 18 of 61 | 10 of 23 | 9 of 15 | 37 of 98 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 69 of 124 | 55% | 64 of 118 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 67 of 122 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nate Diaz | 36 of 108 | 33% | 21 of 79 | 8 of 18 | 7 of 11 | 36 of 108 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 63 of 110 | 57% | 54 of 97 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 60 of 107 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 77 of 119 | 64% | 129 of 175 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 7:47 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 13 of 104 | 12% | 51 of 145 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 25 of 49 | 51% | 36 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 9 of 61 | 14% | 14 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 30 of 42 | 71% | 34 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 4 of 39 | 10% | 10 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 22 of 28 | 78% | 59 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:22 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 27 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 77 of 119 | 64% | 46 of 81 | 5 of 9 | 26 of 29 | 37 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 39 of 51 |
| Nate Diaz | 13 of 104 | 12% | 12 of 98 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 12 of 103 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 25 of 49 | 51% | 13 of 32 | 2 of 5 | 10 of 12 | 16 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 14 |
| Nate Diaz | 9 of 61 | 14% | 8 of 55 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 30 of 42 | 71% | 13 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 14 of 15 | 19 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 11 |
| Nate Diaz | 4 of 39 | 10% | 4 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafael dos Anjos | 22 of 28 | 78% | 20 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 26 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Michael Johnson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dober | 1 | 22 of 55 | 40% | 22 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 27 of 76 | 35% | 27 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Dober | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 18 of 51 | 35% | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Drew Dober | 1 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dober | 22 of 55 | 40% | 9 of 33 | 7 of 14 | 6 of 8 | 21 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 27 of 76 | 35% | 18 of 55 | 0 of 11 | 9 of 10 | 27 of 76 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Dober | 11 of 29 | 37% | 2 of 14 | 5 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 18 of 51 | 35% | 9 of 31 | 0 of 11 | 9 of 9 | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Drew Dober | 11 of 26 | 42% | 7 of 19 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 9 of 25 | 36% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Drew Dober as a slight underdog over Michael Johnson, but with very low confidence. He notes Johnson is inconsistent and his recent wins are against weak competition, while Dober's chin may be fading after brutal KO losses. However, Brady thinks Dober hits harder and could catch Johnson, predicting a second-round KO. He acknowledges the fight is a toss-up and trusts neither fighter.
Cody picks Johnson, citing his better speed, boxing, and reach advantage. He notes Dober's recent knockout losses and regression, while Johnson is on a three-fight win streak. He expects Johnson to win by knockout or decision.
Connor picks Johnson, citing Dober's clear decline in recent fights, especially the Kyle Propolek fight where Dober looked slow and unfocused. He notes that Johnson has maintained a consistent level and still has sharp counterpunching and good first-level takedown defense. Connor believes Dober's durability has faded and his pressure style leaves him open to counters, which Johnson can exploit.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Drew Dober as an underdog, expecting an early scare followed by a late knockout. He notes that Michael Johnson's speed fades with age, and Dober's durability and power can turn the tide. Vreeland compares it to Dober's fight against Bobby Green, where he took punishment early and finished later.
James picks Michael Johnson because he is faster and hits just as hard as Dober, and he expects Johnson to land first. He notes Dober's declining durability and hittability, making him vulnerable to a knockout. James predicts a KO finish, likely by Johnson, and suggests betting on the fight ending via KO.
Johnson is the better technical striker with cleaner counters. Dober is explosive but vulnerable to counters. Johnson's speed and power should allow him to land a big shot and put Dober away. Johnson by knockout.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Johnson due to his power, volume, and footwork. He mentions Dober's durability issues and Johnson's ability to fight to his opponent's level. He expects Johnson to either knock Dober out or win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober, believing he will walk through Johnson's shots and land a KO. He compares it to the Bobby Green fight and predicts a second-round TKO. He mentions Dober's whiteboard and obsession with finishing Johnson.
Zane also picks Johnson, agreeing with Connor's assessment. He emphasizes that Dober's recent performances show a fighter who is no longer present in the moment, similar to Tony Ferguson's decline. Zane notes that Johnson's speed and counterpunching are still dangerous, and Dober's tendency to lead with his face makes him vulnerable. He sees Johnson as the more reliable fighter at this stage.
Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, citing his speed, power, and recent resurgence with back-to-back knockouts. He acknowledges Michael Johnson's impressive resume and takedown defense but worries about Johnson's age and chin. He notes Hernandez's tendency to swell and bleed easily as a concern, especially in Vegas where damage matters.
Big Brady believes Hernandez is finally putting it together, on a four-fight win streak, and filling out at lightweight. He thinks Michael Johnson is too old at 39 and benefited from recency bias after an upset win over Zellhuber. Brady expects Hernandez to win by decision, as Johnson won't push a pace that gasses Hernandez.
Cody also picks Hernandez but is hesitant due to Hernandez's mental fragility. He notes Hernandez's confidence-based fighting style and recent wins, but worries about his tendency to underperform. Cody believes Hernandez's power and wrestling give him the edge, but he is not fully confident.
Connor is torn but leans Hernandez, believing Johnson's win streak is smoke and mirrors. He notes that Hernandez has better wins and is younger, but acknowledges Johnson's speed and durability. Connor thinks Hernandez needs to pressure and wrestle to win, and that Johnson's takedown defense can be frustrated. He ultimately picks Hernandez but with low confidence.
Daniel Vreeland picks Alexander Hernandez based on momentum and age advantage. He notes that Hernandez is on a four-fight win streak, while Johnson is 39 and speed is the first thing to go. However, Vreeland is not fully confident because Hernandez's wins are against lower-level competition and Johnson can beat anyone on a given night.
James picks Hernandez after tape study, citing his wrestling upside, better footwork, and durability. He notes Johnson is older and that Hernandez is on a better trajectory. However, he is not fully confident and will analyze further for betting.
The host picks Hernandez by knockout but with low confidence, acknowledging that Johnson could outstrike him over three rounds. He notes Hernandez's power is the difference-maker, but he relies on landing a big shot. He says Johnson is live as an underdog and won't fault anyone taking the plus money.
Paul leans toward Alexander Hernandez, citing his youth and recent winning streak. He notes Hernandez's power and wrestling threat, but is wary of his inconsistency. Paul believes Hernandez can catch Johnson, who is older and has been knocked out before. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, calling it a 'fraud check' for Alexander Hernandez. He believes Johnson's hand speed will be too much, and that Hernandez will fail to adjust, leading to a KO. He predicts a round two KO.
Zane picks Johnson, arguing that Johnson has never lost confidence or changed his style, and is still fast and durable. He notes that Hernandez has gone through crises and may not pressure effectively. Zane believes Johnson's speed and shot selection will give Hernandez problems, and that Hernandez's recent wins are less impressive. However, he acknowledges Hernandez could wrestle and win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 1 | 80 of 195 | 41% | 81 of 196 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 52 of 182 | 28% | 52 of 182 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 24 of 56 | 42% | 24 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 12 of 46 | 26% | 12 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 1 | 30 of 77 | 38% | 31 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 17 of 66 | 25% | 17 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 26 of 62 | 41% | 26 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 23 of 70 | 32% | 23 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 80 of 195 | 41% | 27 of 100 | 42 of 81 | 11 of 14 | 77 of 189 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 52 of 182 | 28% | 19 of 125 | 27 of 48 | 6 of 9 | 50 of 180 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 24 of 56 | 42% | 4 of 22 | 15 of 28 | 5 of 6 | 24 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 12 of 46 | 26% | 2 of 23 | 7 of 17 | 3 of 6 | 12 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 30 of 77 | 38% | 14 of 47 | 10 of 23 | 6 of 7 | 27 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 17 of 66 | 25% | 7 of 51 | 9 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 26 of 62 | 41% | 9 of 31 | 17 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 26 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 23 of 70 | 32% | 10 of 51 | 11 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing his striking, length, takedown defense, and toughness. He respects Michael Johnson's experience but believes father time has caught up. He notes Zellhuber's recent loss was competitive and he showed heart.
Big Brady confidently picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing advantages in age, height, reach, striking, and grappling. He notes Michael Johnson's age (39) and durability issues, having been finished 12 times. He predicts Zellhuber wins by second-round knockout.
Connor picks Zellhuber for his pace and youth, noting that Johnson has become choosy and less willing to throw combinations. He thinks Zellhuber will have opportunities to engage when Johnson decides to engage, and that Zellhuber's combination punching will be effective. However, he warns that the fight could be ugly if Johnson is too slow-paced.
The host is going with the Mexican fighter, expecting him to pick apart Johnson from distance and eventually line up a big knockout within two rounds. This shows confidence in Zellhuber's striking ability.
The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber over Michael Johnson, predicting a decision win. He notes that Johnson is older and has struggled against lower-level opponents like Jamie Mullarkey, while Zellhuber is younger and has a reach and height advantage. The Guru also mentions that Zellhuber had a wake-up call in his last fight against Rivic, recovering well, and believes he will out-strike Johnson over three rounds. He expects a 29-28 or 30-27 scorecard.
Zane picks Zellhuber based on a predictive algorithm that notes Johnson hasn't beaten a good fighter in a long time. He points out that Johnson's recent wins are over shot fighters or inconsistent ones, while Zellhuber is younger and more dangerous. He also mentions the possibility of a stinker but still favors Zellhuber.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 1 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 19 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 16 of 56 | 28% | 20 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 11 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 10 of 37 | 27% | 14 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 1 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 19 of 50 | 38% | 13 of 37 | 3 of 8 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 16 of 56 | 28% | 8 of 39 | 7 of 12 | 1 of 5 | 15 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 11 of 31 | 35% | 6 of 21 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 10 of 37 | 27% | 5 of 25 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 3 | 9 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 8 of 19 | 42% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 6 of 19 | 31% | 3 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Johnson as the better fighter everywhere except raw power. He notes Johnson's experience, footwork, takedown defense, and positive striking differential against elite competition. He acknowledges Johnson's age and chin vulnerability, but believes Azaitar's poor cardio and reliance on a one-punch KO make Johnson the safer pick. He warns that Johnson can be knocked out, so caution is advised.
Big Brady picks Michael Johnson to win by first-round knockout, but is very hesitant. He notes Johnson is extremely inconsistent and often loses fights he should win. He thinks Johnson is much better than Azaitar but warns to tread lightly. He is not confident in betting this fight.
Cody picks Michael Johnson, citing his experience, cardio, and grappling advantage. He notes Azaitar's inactivity and questionable durability since the 'potato bag' incident. Cody believes Johnson can outwork Azaitar and potentially use wrestling if needed.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Johnson is a natural counter-puncher and that Azaitar's game is not built for MMA success at this level. He points out that Azaitar's wins are over chinny or flawed opponents and that he doesn't seem to care about winning fights, only maintaining an image.
Daniel Vreeland picks Ottman Azaitar for the upset, citing Michael Johnson's extreme unpredictability. He notes Johnson has a history of losing fights he should win, and despite being more well-rounded and faster, Johnson often underperforms. Vreeland says he never bets on Johnson and expects Azaitar to take advantage.
Johnson's fight IQ mistakes often come back to haunt him, and against heavy-handed Azaitar, he is expected to get caught. Azaitar should crash the pocket consistently and find a knockout victory within the first round and a half.
Paul picks Michael Johnson, citing his experience and power. He expects a bonus-hunting fight and likes the under. Paul notes that Azaitar is a kill-or-be-killed type, but Johnson's durability and skill should prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, citing his superior hand speed and technique compared to Ottman Azaitar, who he describes as slow and hook-heavy. He notes Johnson's recent win and his competitive performance against Carlos Diego Ferreira before being knocked out. He believes Johnson will land consistently and finish Azaitar in round two via TKO. He also dismisses Azaitar's past wins as unimpressive and notes his two-fight losing streak.
Zane picks Michael Johnson, arguing that Johnson remains a fast, functional striker with a good counter-punching game and has built layers of defense over his career. He notes that Azaitar is a brawling puncher who has not fought with hunger in years, living a luxurious lifestyle as an advisor to the King of Morocco, and that Johnson simply does not lose to strikers of Azaitar's level.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 61 of 112 | 54% | 80 of 138 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 6:02 |
| Darrius Flowers | 0 | 33 of 64 | 51% | 52 of 86 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 32 of 60 | 53% | 32 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Darrius Flowers | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 20 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 27 of 46 | 58% | 40 of 64 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:12 |
| Darrius Flowers | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 11 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 8 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:44 |
| Darrius Flowers | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 21 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 61 of 112 | 54% | 16 of 47 | 36 of 52 | 9 of 13 | 58 of 109 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Darrius Flowers | 33 of 64 | 51% | 10 of 31 | 9 of 12 | 14 of 21 | 29 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 32 of 60 | 53% | 7 of 23 | 17 of 27 | 8 of 10 | 32 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Darrius Flowers | 20 of 36 | 55% | 1 of 9 | 6 of 8 | 13 of 19 | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 27 of 46 | 58% | 8 of 20 | 19 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 25 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Darrius Flowers | 7 of 20 | 35% | 4 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Darrius Flowers | 6 of 8 | 75% | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo acknowledges Michael Johnson's vast experience and skills, but notes he is older, slower, and coming off a bad knockout loss. Darrius Flowers is an in-your-face fighter with power and slams, but is unproven. Angelo picks Flowers due to Johnson's age and the knockout, but is hesitant to bet on an unproven fighter. He compares Johnson to Muslim Salikhov, suggesting a similar fate.
Big Brady hesitantly picks Michael Johnson to win by second-round submission. He notes that Johnson is inconsistent and has been on his no-bet list since 2018, but this is his easiest fight in 13 years. Flowers is a one-round brawler with poor cardio and durability, and if Johnson survives the initial storm, he should win. He predicts a finish in the second round, possibly by submission due to Flowers tapping to strikes.
Cody picks Johnson, citing his superior skill set and experience against top competition. He notes Flowers' boxing record is poor (1-10) and that he has been knocked out multiple times. Johnson's takedown defense should be sufficient against Flowers, who is not a high-level wrestler. Cody expects a striking battle where Johnson's volume and power prevail, though he acknowledges Johnson's chin is a concern.
Johnson is far superior in striking and experience. He should be able to use his jab and footwork to stay away from Flowers' power and then find a knockout in the second or third round. Flowers has poor cardio and is not UFC-level. Johnson's takedown defense will keep the fight standing. At -125, Johnson is a no-brainer play.
Paul also picks Johnson, noting he has fought the best and has knockout wins over top guys. He thinks Flowers' only path is an early knockout, but Johnson's experience and durability should see him through. Paul mentions that Johnson's takedown defense is underrated and that Flowers is not a wrestler. He expects Johnson to win by decision or late stoppage.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson because he believes Johnson can stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing, where he has the advantage. He references Johnson's shutdown of Mark Diakiese and his performance against Jamie Mullarkey. He does not see Darrius Flowers as a monster prospect and expects Johnson to win by TKO in the first or second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 1 | 30 of 71 | 42% | 30 of 71 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 32 of 58 | 55% | 32 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 24 of 55 | 43% | 24 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 27 of 46 | 58% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 1 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 30 of 71 | 42% | 17 of 46 | 10 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 29 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 32 of 58 | 55% | 13 of 34 | 17 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 32 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 24 of 55 | 43% | 13 of 37 | 8 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 27 of 46 | 58% | 12 of 29 | 13 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 6 of 16 | 37% | 4 of 9 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 5 of 12 | 41% | 1 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Michael Johnson as an underdog, arguing that Johnson is the younger fighter (36 vs 38) and has fought tougher competition. He believes Johnson is the better striker with solid takedown defense and BJJ defense, and that Ferreira's three-fight skid is misleading because he lost to elite grapplers. He expects a close fight but favors Johnson's experience and IQ.
Big Brady picks Michael Johnson to win by decision as an underdog. He notes Johnson has good takedown defense and should be able to keep the fight standing, where he is the better striker. He is concerned about Ferreira's long layoff and age (38), and believes Johnson can outpoint him. However, he admits trusting Johnson with money is something he hasn't done in a long time.
Cody acknowledges Ferreira's grappling advantage and past success, but is concerned about his age (38), year-and-a-half layoff, and three-fight losing streak. He thinks Ferreira can win if he uses his wrestling, but is not confident given the unknowns.
Connor also picks Ferreira, agreeing that his grappling pressure will be too much for Johnson. He notes that Johnson has become a more measured fighter but still struggles against grapplers who go for finishes on the ground. He points out that even Mark Diakiese, who doesn't match Ferreira's style, was able to shut out Johnson by stifling his takedown attempts, but Ferreira's scrambling ability makes him a different threat.
Daniel Levi picks Carlos Diego Ferreira, but with low confidence. He acknowledges Ferreira's recent losses to elite grapplers (Dariush, Gillespie, Camara) and his year off, but thinks Ferreira's BJJ is a major threat. He notes Michael Johnson has a speed advantage but Ferreira is sneaky with his striking and can take the fight to the ground. Levi believes in their primes, Ferreira wins, but is unsure about Ferreira's current form and durability.
The host picks Michael Johnson, citing his superior technical striking and ability to counter Ferreira's pressure. He notes Johnson's takedown defense will be crucial; if he keeps the fight upright, he should outland Ferreira. He expects a decision win, given Ferreira's age and layoff.
Paul is also hesitant, citing Ferreira's layoff and age. He notes that Michael Johnson's recent opponents didn't test his grappling, but Ferreira's wrestling could be the difference. He picks Ferreira but is not confident and will wait for weigh-ins.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson as an underdog, believing he can KO Ferreira. He notes a massive speed difference on the feet and argues Johnson has faster hands than Poirier, who hit Ferreira with speed. He points to Johnson's improved takedown defense against Mark Madsen and his competitive fight with Jamie Mullarkey. He expects Ferreira to be hesitant on the feet after failing takedowns, leading to a KO for Johnson.
Zane picks Ferreira, citing the classic bad matchup for Michael Johnson: a relentless grappler who creates scrambles and submission threats. He acknowledges that Johnson has improved his takedown defense and become more disciplined, but Ferreira's ability to turn even failed takedowns into complicated exchanges will test Johnson's composure. He notes that Johnson has historically detonated when taken down, and Ferreira's style is exactly the kind that beats him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 83 of 181 | 45% | 83 of 181 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Marc Diakiese | 0 | 55 of 127 | 43% | 55 of 127 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 12 of 41 | 29% | 12 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Marc Diakiese | 0 | 23 of 38 | 60% | 23 of 38 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 30 of 61 | 49% | 30 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Marc Diakiese | 0 | 11 of 40 | 27% | 11 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 41 of 79 | 51% | 41 of 79 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Marc Diakiese | 0 | 21 of 49 | 42% | 21 of 49 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 83 of 181 | 45% | 37 of 116 | 37 of 55 | 9 of 10 | 79 of 171 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 3 |
| Marc Diakiese | 55 of 127 | 43% | 21 of 80 | 24 of 31 | 10 of 16 | 52 of 124 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 12 of 41 | 29% | 5 of 29 | 5 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 |
| Marc Diakiese | 23 of 38 | 60% | 6 of 16 | 9 of 14 | 8 of 8 | 22 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 30 of 61 | 49% | 14 of 39 | 13 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 30 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Marc Diakiese | 11 of 40 | 27% | 5 of 29 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 5 | 11 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 41 of 79 | 51% | 18 of 48 | 19 of 27 | 4 of 4 | 38 of 74 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Marc Diakiese | 21 of 49 | 42% | 10 of 35 | 10 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 19 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Marc Diakiese, citing his forward pressure, volume, and takedown threat. He thinks Diakiese will win by decision, working in some takedowns and grinding. He acknowledges Michael Johnson is a veteran who has fought the best and can be competitive, but believes Diakiese's improved wrestling and kickboxing will be too much. He does not expect a stoppage.
Big Brady picks Diakiese, citing his wrestling and cardio advantage. He notes Johnson has been taken down by lesser wrestlers (Clay Guida, Stevie Ray) and expects Diakiese to secure takedowns and grind out a decision. He acknowledges this is a step up in competition for Diakiese but believes he wins.
Cody picks Diakiese, noting his wrestling and Johnson's tendency to fade. He thinks Diakiese will spam takedowns and win a boring decision. He also likes the over 2.5 takedowns prop.
Connor picks Marc Diakiese, emphasizing that Johnson is extremely breakable when faced with wrestling. He notes that Diakiese has a strong wrestling game and Johnson has a history of losing once taken down, even when winning on the feet. Connor calls it a 'super Jacked Darren Elkins' matchup.
Daniel Levi picks Diakiese but is not interested in laying the price. He acknowledges Johnson's ability to beat top guys on his best day but cannot trust him. He notes Diakiese's wrestling and top control as keys.
The host is confident in Diakiese, noting his recent emphasis on grappling and takedowns. He thinks Diakiese will use his wrestling to control Johnson, who has poor grappling defense. He likes Diakiese by decision and considers him a reliable parlay piece. He mentions that Johnson has only one win in his last six or seven fights.
Paul is confident in Diakiese, citing his wrestling and Johnson's poor takedown defense and cardio. He parlayed Diakiese with RDA. He likes the over 2.5 takedowns prop.
The MMA Guru picks Marc Diakiese, believing his grappling will be too much for Michael Johnson. He notes Diakiese has become a full-time grappler with technical takedowns, while Johnson's takedown defense has declined. He predicts Diakiese will dominate each round via decision, putting the crowd to sleep.
Zane picks Marc Diakiese confidently, noting that Diakiese is a gritty wrestler who has returned to his wrestling roots in recent fights. He points out that Michael Johnson crumbles when faced with wrestling pressure, as seen in fights against Stevie Ray and Darren Elkins, and Diakiese is a super jacked version of that style.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Mullarkey | 1 | 66 of 190 | 34% | 68 of 194 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 96 of 217 | 44% | 96 of 218 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Mullarkey | 1 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 20 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 20 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 18 of 57 | 31% | 18 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 45 of 95 | 47% | 45 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 3 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 30 of 91 | 32% | 30 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 31 of 69 | 44% | 31 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Mullarkey | 66 of 190 | 34% | 42 of 147 | 22 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 58 of 179 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 6 |
| Michael Johnson | 96 of 217 | 44% | 54 of 160 | 21 of 34 | 21 of 23 | 83 of 195 | 11 of 18 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Mullarkey | 18 of 42 | 42% | 12 of 33 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 32 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 6 |
| Michael Johnson | 20 of 53 | 37% | 10 of 37 | 3 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 18 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 4 | |
| 2 | Jamie Mullarkey | 18 of 57 | 31% | 11 of 44 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 45 of 95 | 47% | 24 of 69 | 11 of 15 | 10 of 11 | 34 of 79 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jamie Mullarkey | 30 of 91 | 32% | 19 of 70 | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 31 of 69 | 44% | 20 of 54 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 31 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Michael Johnson as a +200 underdog, questioning why Mullarkey is a 2-1 favorite. He highlights Johnson's 78% takedown defense over 25 UFC fights, noting only Khabib and Clay Guida have taken him down multiple times. He believes Johnson's striking is underrated and he is not chinny, having been knocked out only once. He sees Mullarkey as a grappler who has been striking lately, and Johnson's experience gives him the edge.
Big Brady picks Jamie Mullarkey, citing his youth and multiple paths to victory. He notes that Mullarkey can mix in takedowns and make it a dirty fight, which could expose Michael Johnson's questionable ground game and tendency to make mistakes. He acknowledges Johnson is the better striker and could knock Mullarkey out, but believes Mullarkey's durability and pressure will earn him a decision win. He expresses surprise at Mullarkey being a -240 favorite.
Cody thinks Mullarkey's pressure and wrestling will be key against Johnson, who fades in later rounds. He notes Johnson's best round is the first, and if Mullarkey can survive that, he can take over. He believes Mullarkey's durability is still there despite the recent KO loss.
The host bets 1 unit on Michael Johnson at +225 as a value play. He thinks Johnson is the better striker, faster, and could knock out Mullarkey quickly. However, he also acknowledges that Mullarkey could have success and possibly finish Johnson later, so he also bets on the under 2.5 rounds to cover both sides. He sees the optimal outcome as Johnson by KO under 2.5 rounds.
Paul calls this a dogger pass situation. He's tempted by Johnson at plus money but notes Johnson's inconsistency. He thinks the price on Mullarkey is steep and isn't confident either way.
The Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey, praising his technical striking, solid chin, and grappling ability. He believes Mullarkey will wear Johnson down with body work and cage pressure, finishing him in the third round via cumulative damage. He notes Johnson's tendency to gas.
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