UFC 194: Aldo vs. McGregor · Dec 12, 2015 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 194: Aldo vs. McGregor Next Fight
Age 46
Height 6' 0"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 33
Height 5' 9"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Leonardo Santos
2.82 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
3.4 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.88 TD Avg
25.0% TD Acc.
86.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Kevin Lee
3.88 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
3.6 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
3.18 TD Avg
43.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Leonardo Santos - Fight History
LOSS vs Jared Gordon
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Gordon 0 36 of 81 44% 41 of 86 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:54
Leonardo Santos 0 116 of 174 66% 203 of 265 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Gordon 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Leonardo Santos 0 37 of 60 61% 53 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
2 Jared Gordon 0 13 of 24 54% 16 of 27 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:29
Leonardo Santos 0 29 of 43 67% 51 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:54
3 Jared Gordon 0 13 of 35 37% 15 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:25
Leonardo Santos 0 50 of 71 70% 99 of 121 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Gordon 36 of 81 44% 21 of 60 11 of 16 4 of 5 29 of 74 7 of 7 0 of 0
Leonardo Santos 116 of 174 66% 67 of 120 41 of 46 8 of 8 86 of 136 26 of 34 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Gordon 10 of 22 45% 3 of 11 5 of 8 2 of 3 8 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
Leonardo Santos 37 of 60 61% 20 of 41 15 of 17 2 of 2 28 of 51 9 of 9 0 of 0
2 Jared Gordon 13 of 24 54% 8 of 18 4 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 20 4 of 4 0 of 0
Leonardo Santos 29 of 43 67% 12 of 23 15 of 18 2 of 2 18 of 26 11 of 17 0 of 0
3 Jared Gordon 13 of 35 37% 10 of 31 2 of 3 1 of 1 12 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
Leonardo Santos 50 of 71 70% 35 of 56 11 of 11 4 of 4 40 of 59 6 of 8 4 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jared Gordon vs. Leonardo Santos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gordon (-305), Santos (+255)

Round 1
The 42-year-old Santos will look to turn things around after an 0-2 2021, while Gordon had a three-fight winning streak snapped by Grant Dawson in his first outing of 2022. Herb Dean will oversee the lightweight clash. Santos will enjoy a seven-inch reach edge here. Gordon beings with a two-punch combination. Santos responds with a body kick. Santos with an inside leg kick. It’s a measured beginning, with very little action in the first two minutes. Santos can’t find the range on a front kick, and Gordon pressures forward but eats a knee up the middle. Gordon is struggling to find the range more than halfway through the round, but he does land a leg kick. Gordon rushes forward and lands a right hand. Santos counters Gordon with a knee up the middle. Another low kick for Gordon. Santos kicks at the body. Santos blocks a high kick. Gordon is getting a little more aggressive. He tags Santos with an uppercut and flurries with body work against the fence. Gordon gets a body lock and presses Santos into the cage. More short shots to the body by Gordon in the linch. Gordon moves forward, digs to the body and ties up with Santos. He lands a few punches to the head in the clinch before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Gordon

Round 2
Santos probes with a push kick, but it misses the mark. Gordon lands a leg kick and misses a combination to the head. Gordon closes the distance and shoves Santos into the fence. they separate quickly, but Gordon resets. Santos circles off and lands a knee down the middle. Gordon with a couple punches to the head as he wades forward. Gordon moves in with a combination, then backs away, a pattern that is repeating multiple times this round. Santos responds with a high kick on one of those entries, but mostly it’s Gordon moving forward and pressing the action. Santos shoots for a takedown and it drives Gordon into the fence. Santos is working his way to the back, but Gordon uses a couple fence grabs to his advantage and he turns the Brazilian into the fence. No it’s Gordon grinding away in the clinch. Gordon creates space to briefly dig to the body with punches before clinching with Santos again. Gordon with a couple punches to the head, then a few to the body. Finally, Santos turns and escapes. Gordon closes distance behind some right hands and shoves Santos into the fence yet again. Gordon rips the body as Santos seems content to hold his opponent’s head. Santos breaks free and Gordon moves forward. Santos lands a decent counter right hand in an exchange. The lightweights are content to stand at range in the last 15 seconds before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Gordon

Round 3
Santos lands a front kick and Gordon counters with a punching combination. Gordon goes upstairs with a right hand. He remains on the attack with a trio of kicks to the inside leg of Santos. Gordon remains on the offensive as he moves forward with a combination to the head. Santos backs up and eats another combination. Gordon jabs through Santos guard, then works the body. More combinations land for Gordon, who is in a rhythm, though not necessarily threatening to finish the fight. Gordon rips the body and clinches with Santos. Snatos is on the fence, eating body shots. Santos frees himself and eats a few jabs. Gordon with a body-head combination. Gordon remains in Santos face, pressuring with combinations. “Flash” forces the clinch and lands punches on the break. Moments later, it’s another body shot and brief clinch from Gordon. Santos times a level change under a Gordon punch, but his opponent sprawls nicely. Santos is just hanging on while on the mat. Gordon mixes up punches to the head and ribs while the Brazilian clings to his legs. Gordon with more hammerfists and Dean urges Santos to work. Santos gets to his feet and shoves Gordon into the cage as time winds down. Santos leans on Gordon and the crowd voices its displeasure. Santos attempts a spinning back elbow on the break, but Gordon responds with a punching combination just before the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (30-27 Gordon)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (30-27 Gordon)
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (30-27 Gordon)

The Official Result
Jared Gordon def. Leonardo Santos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Angelo picks Jared Gordon over Leonardo Santos. He notes that Santos is a phenomenal BJJ practitioner with deceptive power, but at 41 and on a two-fight losing streak, his cardio and takedown accuracy (29%) are concerns. Gordon was taken down seven times by Grant Dawson, but Angelo believes Gordon's pressure and striking volume will be the difference, similar to his win over Joe Solecki. He thinks Gordon can stay tough and grind out a decision.

"i'm going to go with gordon here to stay tough keep the pressure and grind out santos"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Big Brady picks Jared Gordon but is hesitant. He acknowledges that Leonardo Santos is more skilled everywhere and has a seven-inch reach advantage, but Santos is 42 years old with terrible cardio, gassing out after five minutes. Gordon has poor durability but excellent cardio. Brady expects Gordon to survive the first round and take over in the second and third, winning a decision. He mentions the first round will be a sweat and suggests the Santos first-round prop could be in play.

Santos first round prop in play; Gordon from live betting perspective
"i am going to pick jared gordon to survive that first round and take over as the fight goes on and i'll say win a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Cody picks Gordon, emphasizing Gordon's cardio and pressure. He notes Santos' history of gassing out and thinks Gordon can grind him down. He expects Gordon to win by decision but acknowledges the risk of Santos' early power.

"i will take jared gordon uh probably by decision but regardless i will take jared gordon but i got this earmarked as like one of my potential apple pie [ __ ] that i can't have too much investment in …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Leonardo Santos

Daniel Levi leans toward Leonardo Santos as a dog, but he is not confident. He notes that Santos is better everywhere technically, but at 42 years old he has only one round of gas left. Levi thinks Santos can hurt Gordon early, but if he doesn't finish, Gordon's pace will take over. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation and says if he were to bet, he would take Santos.

Mentions that Santos has been getting finished in back-to-back fights, which is alarming. Says the line is too high on Gordon (-360) and that Santos is live early.
"if I were to bet this this uh this fight I would say Leo Santos"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Gordon should outwork Santos and win a decision, but the -265 price is too steep for the host's liking. Santos has knockout power and could catch Gordon, especially early. The host prefers Gordon by decision at +125 as a prop, and notes Santos by KO at +700 is live. He is not betting Gordon at this price.

Gordon by decision (+125) is the preferred prop. Santos by KO (+700) is mentioned as live.
"I think he outworks leo santos i think he wins a decision um but minus 265 is a little bit wild for me to take a shot on."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Leonardo Santos

Paul picks Santos as a dog, citing his power and submission threat. He took a small sprinkle on Santos by submission at +900. He thinks Santos could catch Gordon early, but acknowledges Gordon's pressure and cardio could be factors.

Santos by submission at +900 (small bet)
"i took a little small sprinkle of santos sub plus 900 um i'm gonna pick them over the uh as a plus 250 plus 215 dog as well don't know if i'm gonna get to the money line but uh …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2022 (fight day)
Jared Gordon

The Guru predicts Jared Gordon wins by third-round submission via arm triangle. He describes Gordon pushing Santos against the cage, landing knees and punches, and threatening submissions. He sees Santos slowing down due to age (42), and Gordon taking mount and locking in the arm triangle on a gassed Santos.

Submission via arm triangle in round 3
"jared gordon via third round submission remake a choke maybe a arm triangle i'll say an arm triangle third round for jared gordon"
LOSS vs Clay Guida
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:21 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Clay Guida 0 18 of 50 36% 50 of 87 2 of 7 28% 1 0 2:09
Leonardo Santos 1 41 of 60 68% 65 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Clay Guida 0 8 of 30 26% 34 of 57 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:11
Leonardo Santos 1 39 of 58 67% 63 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
2 Clay Guida 0 10 of 20 50% 16 of 30 1 of 3 33% 1 0 0:58
Leonardo Santos 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Clay Guida 18 of 50 36% 8 of 39 6 of 6 4 of 5 7 of 38 0 of 1 11 of 11
Leonardo Santos 41 of 60 68% 22 of 39 17 of 19 2 of 2 13 of 21 16 of 23 12 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Clay Guida 8 of 30 26% 6 of 27 1 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 26 0 of 1 3 of 3
Leonardo Santos 39 of 58 67% 21 of 38 16 of 18 2 of 2 11 of 19 16 of 23 12 of 16
2 Clay Guida 10 of 20 50% 2 of 12 5 of 5 3 of 3 2 of 12 0 of 0 8 of 8
Leonardo Santos 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Leonardo Santos

Angelo picks Leonardo Santos, though his heart says Guida. He notes Santos has better jiu-jitsu, power, and striking, but Guida's pace could be an issue. Angelo thinks Santos is the smarter pick but the odds are crazy.

"my heart is saying clay guida but my brain is saying leonardo"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Leonardo Santos

Big Brady picks Leonardo Santos to win by first-round submission. He notes Santos has a massive height and reach advantage, superior striking, and is a BJJ black belt. He points out that Clay Guida has been submitted 10 times and is often finished. However, he warns that Santos has poor cardio (about 1.5 rounds), so if he doesn't finish early, Guida could take over. Brady is confident Santos will finish early, likely by submission after hurting Guida on the feet.

first round submission
"give me santa's win... first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Leonardo Santos

Cody also picks Santos but is not confident, citing Santos's age (41) and recent poor performances. He thinks Santos has the skills to win but his gas tank is a concern. Cody notes that Guida has a history of getting submitted and that Santos could catch him, but he's not sold on the -180 price.

"i honestly think santos will probably out him i would strike him on the better strikes i strike him on the cleaner stuff but yeah volume could be clay guide is in your right in a small octagon where clay …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Leonardo Santos

Daniel Levi picks Leonardo Santos to win by submission, specifically a guillotine or rear-naked choke. He notes Santos's length, underrated hands, calf kicks, and elite jiu-jitsu, and points out that Guida has been submitted multiple times. He is concerned about Santos gassing but believes Santos can finish early if he gets Guida to the mat.

submission (guillotine or rear-naked choke)
"Let me go leo santos via either guillotine or rear naked choke submission here"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Clay Guida

Jacob picks Clay Guida, citing his pressure and cardio. He notes Santos is a defensive striker and Guida can pressure him against the fence. Jacob thinks Guida's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are good enough to avoid submissions, and he will win a typical Guida fight.

"i like quickly guided to win this fight the way that he always wins his fights"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Leonardo Santos

I like Santos. He is the better striker with power and range, and he has good takedown defense. Guida's pace is not what it used to be, and he struggles against fighters who can keep him at distance. Santos can finish on the feet or via submission. I like Santos inside the distance at plus 200 and Santos by submission at plus 315.

Santos inside the distance +200, Santos by submission +315
"i like santos santos sub census inside the distance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Leonardo Santos

Paul picks Santos but with low confidence, noting Santos's skill advantage but poor gas tank and lack of volume. He thinks Santos should win if he uses his reach and grappling, but worries about his cardio and tendency to underperform. Paul mentions that Santos by submission is tempting but he can't trust him to get the fight to the mat.

Santos by submission +375
"pick is santos i mean if santo if i knew santos was gonna attack the wrestling and try to get this fight to the mat i would be a lot more um aggressive with with the play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2021 (fight day)
Clay Guida

The MMA Guru picks Clay Guida to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Santos to win the first round with striking and takedown defense, but Guida's cardio will take over in the second and third. Guida will secure takedowns and land ground strikes as Santos fades, winning the last two rounds.

"i'm going to go of clay guida 29-28 unanimous decision"
LOSS vs Grant Dawson
KO (punches) R3 4:59 · UFC on ESPN: Brunson vs. Holland · Mar 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Grant Dawson 0 30 of 67 44% 74 of 115 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:21
Leonardo Santos 0 46 of 84 54% 75 of 132 1 of 13 7% 0 0 8:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Grant Dawson 0 10 of 19 52% 28 of 37 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:42
Leonardo Santos 0 12 of 23 52% 14 of 26 0 of 5 0% 0 0 2:24
2 Grant Dawson 0 16 of 39 41% 40 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Leonardo Santos 0 23 of 42 54% 27 of 46 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:44
3 Grant Dawson 0 4 of 9 44% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Leonardo Santos 0 11 of 19 57% 34 of 60 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Grant Dawson 30 of 67 44% 14 of 45 6 of 10 10 of 12 28 of 65 2 of 2 0 of 0
Leonardo Santos 46 of 84 54% 16 of 48 23 of 27 7 of 9 33 of 68 9 of 11 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Grant Dawson 10 of 19 52% 5 of 12 0 of 1 5 of 6 9 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Leonardo Santos 12 of 23 52% 3 of 11 7 of 10 2 of 2 8 of 18 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Grant Dawson 16 of 39 41% 6 of 25 6 of 9 4 of 5 16 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Leonardo Santos 23 of 42 54% 6 of 22 13 of 14 4 of 6 18 of 36 5 of 6 0 of 0
3 Grant Dawson 4 of 9 44% 3 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
Leonardo Santos 11 of 19 57% 7 of 15 3 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Leonardo Santos vs. Grant Dawson

Round 1
At lightweight, two men averse to losing come to blows when the ageless Santos (18-3-1, 7-0-1 UFC) looks for his eighth win inside the Octagon against the surging “KGD” Dawson (16-1, 4-0 UFC). The third man in the cage is referee Chris Tognoni, and the contenders searching for a spot in the rankings touch gloves to start things off. Immediately, the two fighters are warned four reaching out their fingers. The Brazilian lands a leg kick, and he rushes forward with a pair of punches and lands a leg kick at the end of it. When Santos scores again, Dawson changes levels but gets stuffed. Santos bears down on him with shots, and he stuffs another takedown only to get kicked in the gut. Santos chops down the lead leg a few more times, leading Dawson to duck down and throw a big overhand right that Santos sees coming. Santos keeps working the leg from afar, and again there is a warning for outstretched fingers. Santos gets off a right hand that bounces off the side of Dawson’s head, and Dawson responds with a huge right hand that wobbles the Brazilian’s legs. Dawson takes advantage of this strike to aim for a takedown, and he lifts Santos in the air but cannot slam him down. Santos scrambles back to his feet and Dawson stays heavy, grinding him against the cage wall. Santos puts his hands up in frustration while Dawson drops in a few knees and foot stomps, and decides to get out of danger by hitting a quick trip to put Dawson on his back. Santos climbs into the guard, but “KGD” butt-scoots his way to the fencing. Santos cannot keep him down for long, and Dawson turns him around to hunt for a single leg takedown. Tognoni asks Dawson to stay busy, so Dawson obliges by changing levels for a double. Santos stops this move and slaps Dawson in the side of the head, and there is a cut on the back corner of Dawson’s head. Santos spins him into the cage and grinds out the remainder of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Santos

Round 2
The lightweights again touch gloves to seal the cage, and Tognoni angrily tells them both to close their fists. Santos walks forward with a jab and a follow-up right hand, and he backs off when Dawson kicks the leg. Santos returns fire with his own kick, and there is another warning for fingers. Dawson aims a leg kick and then second, leading Santos to kick him to the body and then fall over. Dawson stings his man with a right hand, and Santos steps in with a knee to the chest. The Brazilian throws two front kicks, and the second pounds off Dawson’s cup and the American falls to his knees in pain. Dawson takes a full minute before coming back, and Santos apologizes to begin the round again. Santos blocks a head kick and quickly responds with a calf kick. Dawson is on him with a quicker combination of a leg kick and an overhand right, and the two trade kicks one after the other. Dawson hacks at the lead leg and drops Santos to a knee, but the Brazilian stands back up and drills Dawson on the side of the head. Dawson rushes forward for a takedown, and he is greeted by a stern knee to the solar plexus. “KGD” continues his forward movement to press Santos into the cage wall, and he keeps Santos stuck against the fence while unable to ground his opponent. Dawson embraces the grind while failing to take the fight down, all while Santos palm strikes him in the face repeatedly until Tognoni separates the two. Santos charges forward with a string of strikes until Dawson shoots in on him. Santos sees this coming, and he swirls around to take Dawson’s back. Dawson is able to stand back up, but Santos is working him to the side of the head. The two break and start slugging it out with both landing with impunity. Santos tags Dawson and backs off, but “KGD” races after him and nails him in the face with a spinning wheel kick. Santos bounces off the fence, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dawson

Round 3
The final round begins with a glove touch, and both men trade big shots and walk them off. Dawson winds up and whiffs on a big right hand, and he marches forward to land a heavy leg kick. Santos eats a few punches, and when he tries to counter with an overhand right, Dawson ducks it to take the fight down. The Brazilian stuffs it and gets pressed into the fence, as Dawson changes levels for a single. Like every time in the fight so far, Santos defends the takedown. This time, Dawson lifts his opponent in the air, but he sets him down when Santos is able to keep his balance. Both men grab the fence, and Dawson redoubles his effort and finally is able to take Santos down. Santos drops to his knees, and Dawson is on his back and stays heavy when Santos rolls to his side. “KGD” steps over to three-quarter mount, and Santos keeps him there and pulls him back to half guard. Santos absorbs a right hand, and he defends his face from further punishment but precious seconds are ticking off the clock. Santos turns to sweep but Dawson pushes him back over, where the American uses his shoulder to keep Santos flat on his back. Santos bucks but Dawson’s top control is smothering him. Dawson starts to drop down left hands, and he ties up an arm-triangle choke from above only to let it go and drop down a few hammerfists. Dawson continues to re-introduce his fist into Santos’ face again and again, and Santos just takes them flush and does not show any concern. Dawson sits up, and Santos pulls for a heel hook as Dawson stands to his feet. “KGD” slams his right hand into Santos’ face, and as he keeps blasting him, Santos is suddenly in big trouble.
Another right hand lands, and Santos’ hands drop and his grip releases because he is out cold! Dawson keeps smashing, and Santos’ mouthpiece goes flying to let Tognoni know that the Brazilian is completely unconscious.
Unbelievable! Dawson could have been down on the scorecards in the last round, and he scores the literal last-second knockout to hand Santos his first defeat in over a decade!

The Official Result
Grant Dawson def. Leonardo Santos R3 4:59 via KO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

Big Brady picks Grant Dawson but is hesitant, acknowledging Santos' power and takedown defense. He notes Dawson is younger and has a wrestling advantage, but Santos has extreme power and has stuffed takedowns before. Brady worries about Dawson's hittability and the weight cut up to 155. He expects Dawson to win by decision through pressure and volume, but says it's a dog-or-pass fight and might look at Santos' KO prop.

Grant Dawson wins by decision; considers Santos KO prop
"i think dawson's gonna kind of drown them with the pressure and uh and when a decision here so give me dawson by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2021 (fight day)
Grant Dawson

Daniel Levi picks Grant Dawson, expecting him to overwhelm Santos with cardio and pace in the later rounds. He notes Dawson's ability to recover from big shots and sees Santos' cardio as a potential weakness. He mentions James Krause's confidence in Dawson's submission ability but doesn't necessarily predict a submission. He acknowledges the early rounds could be sketchy.

"i'll go with grand dawson to hand leo santos his first ever ufc defeat"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

Dawson is younger, faster, and has better cardio. He should use calf kicks and stay on the feet early to drain Santos' energy before taking him down. Santos has knockout power and solid takedown defense, but his cardio is lacking. Dawson's path is a decision win, but the price is too steep at -190. This is a no-bet due to the volatility.

Dawson by decision
"I do like dawson here um it's just going to be a no bet though it's just too tough to call"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

The MMA Guru picks Grant Dawson over Leonardo Santos. He praises Dawson's wrestling and grappling, noting he is not a scrambly grappler and is content to rest in half guard and land total strikes. He expects Dawson to control Santos against the cage for the first two rounds and win by unanimous decision. He acknowledges Santos is dangerous and has KO power, but thinks the 41-year-old will slow down.

"i'm taking dawson though leonardo santos is a risky man to bet against because he continues to get it done despite his age"
WIN vs Roman Bogatov
Decision (unanimous) (29–26, 29–26, 29–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Jul 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Leonardo Santos 0 66 of 119 55% 116 of 181 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:34
Roman Bogatov 0 50 of 117 42% 81 of 155 1 of 11 9% 0 1 6:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Leonardo Santos 0 20 of 47 42% 21 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:37
Roman Bogatov 0 19 of 50 38% 19 of 50 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Leonardo Santos 0 43 of 61 70% 75 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
Roman Bogatov 0 13 of 30 43% 27 of 48 0 of 2 0% 0 1 2:38
3 Leonardo Santos 0 3 of 11 27% 20 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Roman Bogatov 0 18 of 37 48% 35 of 57 1 of 7 14% 0 0 3:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Leonardo Santos 66 of 119 55% 56 of 106 6 of 9 4 of 4 42 of 89 10 of 12 14 of 18
Roman Bogatov 50 of 117 42% 24 of 82 20 of 29 6 of 6 37 of 96 6 of 7 7 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Leonardo Santos 20 of 47 42% 13 of 38 3 of 5 4 of 4 17 of 42 2 of 3 1 of 2
Roman Bogatov 19 of 50 38% 7 of 34 7 of 11 5 of 5 18 of 49 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Leonardo Santos 43 of 61 70% 41 of 58 2 of 3 0 of 0 23 of 37 7 of 8 13 of 16
Roman Bogatov 13 of 30 43% 8 of 23 4 of 6 1 of 1 7 of 17 0 of 0 6 of 13
3 Leonardo Santos 3 of 11 27% 2 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roman Bogatov 18 of 37 48% 9 of 25 9 of 12 0 of 0 12 of 30 5 of 6 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Leonardo Santos

Big Brady picks Leonardo Santos by submission in round 2, highlighting Santos' fourth-degree BJJ black belt and improved striking. He believes Bogatov's path to victory via takedowns plays into Santos' strength, and Santos can catch him in a submission or win on the feet.

submission round 2
"i gotta go with santos i wanna go submission i wanna go submission i'm gonna go submission round one ... give me uh santos with a second round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Leonardo Santos

Daniel Levi picks Leonardo Santos, calling him an underrated badass with world-class jiu-jitsu and knockout power. He acknowledges Bogatov's wrestling and pressure style could make it close, but believes Santos's experience, well-roundedness, and ability to capitalize on openings (submission or KO) will prevail. He notes Santos's age and layoffs but thinks his style keeps him fresh.

"I have to favor Leo just cuz the experience I think he's the more well-rounded guy and I think he's a serious fighter"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Leonardo Santos

Santos is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist with improving striking, as shown by his knockout of Stevie Ray. Bogatov wants to wrestle, but that plays into Santos's strength. Expects Santos to win by submission, likely an armbar in the second round.

submission in second round
"I like Santos to win this fight I'll probably take him to win by by submission"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)

The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.

WIN vs Stevie Ray
KO (punch) R1 2:17 · UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · Jun 01, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Leonardo Santos 0 2 of 11 18% 2 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stevie Ray 1 12 of 16 75% 12 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Leonardo Santos 0 2 of 11 18% 2 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stevie Ray 1 12 of 16 75% 12 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Leonardo Santos 2 of 11 18% 0 of 8 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stevie Ray 12 of 16 75% 4 of 5 6 of 9 2 of 2 12 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Leonardo Santos 2 of 11 18% 0 of 8 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stevie Ray 12 of 16 75% 4 of 5 6 of 9 2 of 2 12 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson 2 · Oct 08, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Leonardo Santos 0 23 of 70 32% 23 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Adriano Martins 0 34 of 83 40% 34 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Leonardo Santos 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Adriano Martins 0 3 of 18 16% 3 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Leonardo Santos 0 9 of 28 32% 9 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Adriano Martins 0 12 of 26 46% 12 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Leonardo Santos 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Adriano Martins 0 19 of 39 48% 19 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Leonardo Santos 23 of 70 32% 9 of 47 7 of 16 7 of 7 22 of 69 1 of 1 0 of 0
Adriano Martins 34 of 83 40% 8 of 48 6 of 10 20 of 25 34 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Leonardo Santos 4 of 22 18% 0 of 11 4 of 11 0 of 0 3 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
Adriano Martins 3 of 18 16% 0 of 11 0 of 1 3 of 6 3 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Leonardo Santos 9 of 28 32% 2 of 19 2 of 4 5 of 5 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Adriano Martins 12 of 26 46% 2 of 13 3 of 4 7 of 9 12 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Leonardo Santos 10 of 20 50% 7 of 17 1 of 1 2 of 2 10 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Adriano Martins 19 of 39 48% 6 of 24 3 of 5 10 of 10 19 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Kevin Lee
TKO (punches) R1 3:26 · UFC 194: Aldo vs. McGregor · Dec 12, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Leonardo Santos 1 32 of 48 66% 32 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:30
Kevin Lee 0 10 of 46 21% 10 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Leonardo Santos 1 32 of 48 66% 32 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:30
Kevin Lee 0 10 of 46 21% 10 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Leonardo Santos 32 of 48 66% 22 of 38 6 of 6 4 of 4 18 of 30 0 of 0 14 of 18
Kevin Lee 10 of 46 21% 5 of 40 5 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Leonardo Santos 32 of 48 66% 22 of 38 6 of 6 4 of 4 18 of 30 0 of 0 14 of 18
Kevin Lee 10 of 46 21% 5 of 40 5 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:29 · UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. LaFlare · Mar 21, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Leonardo Santos 0 12 of 39 30% 16 of 43 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:27
Anthony Rocco Martin 0 14 of 36 38% 24 of 46 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Leonardo Santos 0 5 of 23 21% 8 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Anthony Rocco Martin 0 9 of 25 36% 19 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:48
2 Leonardo Santos 0 7 of 16 43% 8 of 17 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:07
Anthony Rocco Martin 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Leonardo Santos 12 of 39 30% 6 of 25 0 of 3 6 of 11 12 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Rocco Martin 14 of 36 38% 8 of 30 1 of 1 5 of 5 14 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Leonardo Santos 5 of 23 21% 2 of 14 0 of 3 3 of 6 5 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Rocco Martin 9 of 25 36% 5 of 21 1 of 1 3 of 3 9 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Leonardo Santos 7 of 16 43% 4 of 11 0 of 0 3 of 5 7 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Rocco Martin 5 of 11 45% 3 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 2 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Lee - Fight History
Technical Submission (guillotine choke) R1 0:55 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rinat Fakhretdinov 0 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Lee 1 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rinat Fakhretdinov 0 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Lee 1 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rinat Fakhretdinov 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Lee 11 of 17 64% 6 of 12 2 of 2 3 of 3 11 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rinat Fakhretdinov 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Lee 11 of 17 64% 6 of 12 2 of 2 3 of 3 11 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Angelo picks Rinat Fakhretdinov, citing his offensive wrestling, heavy hands, and insane cardio. He believes Kevin Lee's only chance is to come forward and initiate takedowns, but he doubts Lee can take down Fakhretdinov. He notes the line has moved from -260 to -190, indicating money on Lee, but he is shocked the odds are close.

"this has to be a Renault pick for me Kevin Lee is a gamer been around forever it's fought everybody but we're not offensive wrestling it's just on another level"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Big Brady picks Rinat Fakhretdinov to win by decision, but is not confident. He notes Fakhretdinov has a size and cardio advantage, and is in his prime, while Kevin Lee has been battling injuries and is small for welterweight. However, he acknowledges if prime Kevin Lee shows up, the price would be a steal. He thinks Fakhretdinov's wrestling and pace will be too much for the current version of Lee.

"I'm gonna I'm gonna take vodka dinov don't feel amazing about it though I really don't"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Lee

Cody reluctantly picks Kevin Lee as a plus-money underdog. He notes Lee's past success against top competition, his never losing a first round in the UFC, and his improved knees after surgery. He thinks Fakhretdinov's wins over Andreas Michailidis and Brian Battle are unimpressive and that Lee's striking and wrestling are superior. However, he acknowledges Lee's poor performance against Diego Sanchez and the size disadvantage.

"I'm gonna take him very reluctantly I am going to take him"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Daniel confidently picks Fakhretdinov, citing his dominant grappling and striking stats (7 takedowns, 102-25 strikes against Battle; 5 takedowns, 106-48 strikes against Michailidis). He criticizes Kevin Lee as a front-runner who fades when pressured, and notes Lee's 1-4 skid before being cut. He expects Fakhretdinov to impose his will and finish Lee, possibly by submission or TKO. He dismisses the 'crotch sniffer' label, emphasizing that Fakhretdinov outstrikes opponents as well.

expects a finish; Fakhretdinov minus 190
"I got renat Factor Dean off to extend his win streak and uh you know get into you know one of those top 15 Eliminator type fights"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Paul picks Fakhretdinov, citing his size advantage (natural welterweight vs Lee moving up), dominant performance against Brian Battle, and Lee's poor showing against Diego Sanchez. He notes Lee's knee surgeries and layoff, and believes Fakhretdinov's grappling will be too much. Paul thinks Lee may have peaked and is now declining.

"I'll say that it's faculty enough or pass for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

The Guru picks Rinat Fakhretdinov, citing Kevin Lee's decline, especially his poor performance against Diego Sanchez. He notes Fakhretdinov's dominance over Brian Battle, who is a solid prospect. He predicts Fakhretdinov will dominate in later rounds, getting a third-round TKO or rear-naked choke, as Lee's cardio and chin are questionable.

third round TKO or rear-naked choke
"I'm going with renat for cretinov because Kevin Lee made Diego Sanchez look good in his last fight"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Chikadze · Aug 28, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Rodriguez 0 56 of 160 35% 74 of 181 3 of 7 42% 0 0 3:34
Kevin Lee 0 120 of 210 57% 137 of 229 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Rodriguez 0 13 of 44 29% 31 of 65 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:59
Kevin Lee 0 16 of 40 40% 21 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Daniel Rodriguez 0 23 of 51 45% 23 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:33
Kevin Lee 0 51 of 84 60% 60 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:41
3 Daniel Rodriguez 0 20 of 65 30% 20 of 65 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:02
Kevin Lee 0 53 of 86 61% 56 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Rodriguez 56 of 160 35% 39 of 134 12 of 21 5 of 5 55 of 157 0 of 0 1 of 3
Kevin Lee 120 of 210 57% 87 of 175 7 of 8 26 of 27 113 of 202 0 of 0 7 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Rodriguez 13 of 44 29% 7 of 36 5 of 7 1 of 1 12 of 41 0 of 0 1 of 3
Kevin Lee 16 of 40 40% 8 of 31 1 of 2 7 of 7 16 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Daniel Rodriguez 23 of 51 45% 20 of 45 2 of 5 1 of 1 23 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Lee 51 of 84 60% 36 of 69 4 of 4 11 of 11 45 of 77 0 of 0 6 of 7
3 Daniel Rodriguez 20 of 65 30% 12 of 53 5 of 9 3 of 3 20 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Lee 53 of 86 61% 43 of 75 2 of 2 8 of 9 52 of 85 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Angelo picks Rodriguez but is cautious, citing his crisp boxing, takedown defense, and cardio. He notes Lee has two bad knees and is moving up in weight. He thinks a healthy Lee would win, but the matchup favors Rodriguez. He has Rodriguez in his DraftKings lineup at 7700.

Angelo likes the less less on monkey knife fight.
"i think daniel rodriguez will out point a very frustrated kevin lee in this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Lee

Cody picks Lee, believing that at 170 pounds Lee will have better cardio and can use his wrestling. He notes Lee's talent and that this is a step down in competition. Cody thinks Lee's wrestling will be effective against Rodriguez, who fishes for submissions off his back. He is slightly worried about the size disparity but overall likes Lee as a favorite.

"minus 150 kevin lee seems pretty solid to me like that's a good line"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Lee

Jacob picks Lee, citing his talent and the move to welterweight helping his cut. He believes Lee will get the fight to the ground and submit or TKO Rodriguez. He is surprised Lee is a +150 favorite and thinks he finds a way to win.

"i like kevin lee in this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Lee

Lock picks Kevin Lee by decision at +215, believing Lee's grappling advantage will be decisive. He thinks Lee can secure takedowns in the first two rounds and at least one in the third, controlling the fight. Lock is concerned about Lee's cardio but notes it's a three-round fight and Rodriguez doesn't push a high pace. He sees Rodriguez as competent off his back but not a submission threat.

Lee by decision +215
"i do think kevin lee uh eeks this fight out with the decision okay maybe eek is a little bit of an exaggeration i do think he wins this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Lee

Paul picks Lee, citing his wrestling and the fact that Rodriguez is taking the fight on short notice. He thinks Lee's best path is wrestling, and that Rodriguez's 10th Planet jiu-jitsu is mostly off his back. Paul is concerned about Lee's weight cuts but believes at 170 he'll perform better. He says he'll watch weigh-ins before betting.

"i'll uh i'll go with the favorite here minus 150 kevin the motown phenom lee"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Aug 22, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Lee

The Guru picks Kevin Lee after flipping back and forth, ultimately trusting Lee's wrestling and reach advantage. He notes that Rodriguez took the fight on short notice while eating hot dogs at Disneyland, which affects his preparation. The Guru predicts a rear-naked choke in the first or second round, but acknowledges Rodriguez could win by TKO in the later rounds if it goes that far.

Lee by submission (rear-naked choke) in round 1 or 2
"i'm gonna go with kevin lee rear naked choke first or second round i'm trusting in kevin lee here"
Submission (guillotine choke) R3 0:28 · UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · Mar 14, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Oliveira 0 41 of 80 51% 61 of 100 2 of 3 66% 0 1 6:30
Kevin Lee 0 43 of 65 66% 51 of 73 0 of 1 0% 2 1 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Oliveira 0 15 of 29 51% 15 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:30
Kevin Lee 0 13 of 18 72% 16 of 21 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:11
2 Charles Oliveira 0 16 of 37 43% 36 of 57 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:56
Kevin Lee 0 28 of 42 66% 33 of 47 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 Charles Oliveira 0 10 of 14 71% 10 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Kevin Lee 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Oliveira 41 of 80 51% 35 of 74 6 of 6 0 of 0 31 of 65 0 of 0 10 of 15
Kevin Lee 43 of 65 66% 28 of 49 9 of 10 6 of 6 35 of 56 2 of 2 6 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Oliveira 15 of 29 51% 13 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 22 0 of 0 7 of 7
Kevin Lee 13 of 18 72% 8 of 12 1 of 2 4 of 4 10 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 3
2 Charles Oliveira 16 of 37 43% 13 of 34 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 29 0 of 0 3 of 8
Kevin Lee 28 of 42 66% 19 of 33 7 of 7 2 of 2 23 of 36 2 of 2 3 of 4
3 Charles Oliveira 10 of 14 71% 9 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Lee 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Mar 12, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Daniel leans towards Oliveira as a dog, citing his submission threat and undefeated record in Brazil. He thinks Oliveira can finish Lee somewhere along the way. He notes Lee's chin and submission loss to dos Anjos as concerns.

finish
"I'm a lean with the dog here so I'm gonna go with Charles du Bronx Oliveira to finish Kevin Lee"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Kevin Lee

The host picks Kevin Lee over Charles Oliveira. He argues that Oliveira's recent wins are against lower-level competition (Nik Lentz, Jim Miller, Clay Guida, etc.) and that historically Oliveira loses when stepping up in competition. Lee has a reach advantage (three inches) and improved striking at Tristar. He expects Lee to piece Oliveira up on the feet, take him down, and finish by ground-and-pound in the late second round. He also notes Lee's good jiu-jitsu defense.

second round TKO by ground-and-pound
"Kevin Lee by second-round TKO and Olivieri are back to the drawing board and back to be in Cannes"
KO (head kick) R1 2:47 · UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Nov 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Lee 1 21 of 59 35% 21 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Gregor Gillespie 0 9 of 46 19% 9 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Lee 1 21 of 59 35% 21 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Gregor Gillespie 0 9 of 46 19% 9 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Lee 21 of 59 35% 19 of 55 2 of 4 0 of 0 20 of 56 0 of 2 1 of 1
Gregor Gillespie 9 of 46 19% 8 of 45 0 of 0 1 of 1 9 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Lee 21 of 59 35% 19 of 55 2 of 4 0 of 0 20 of 56 0 of 2 1 of 1
Gregor Gillespie 9 of 46 19% 8 of 45 0 of 0 1 of 1 9 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R4 3:47 · UFC Fight Night: dos Anjos vs. Lee · May 18, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael dos Anjos 0 60 of 111 54% 75 of 126 4 of 7 57% 1 1 3:53
Kevin Lee 0 35 of 97 36% 40 of 102 6 of 16 37% 0 0 8:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael dos Anjos 0 15 of 34 44% 18 of 37 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:28
Kevin Lee 0 12 of 32 37% 14 of 34 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:58
2 Rafael dos Anjos 0 14 of 24 58% 20 of 30 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:35
Kevin Lee 0 12 of 30 40% 15 of 33 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:56
3 Rafael dos Anjos 0 14 of 19 73% 16 of 21 2 of 3 66% 0 1 2:20
Kevin Lee 0 2 of 11 18% 2 of 11 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:44
4 Rafael dos Anjos 0 17 of 34 50% 21 of 38 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:30
Kevin Lee 0 9 of 24 37% 9 of 24 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael dos Anjos 60 of 111 54% 36 of 83 17 of 21 7 of 7 33 of 80 18 of 20 9 of 11
Kevin Lee 35 of 97 36% 23 of 79 10 of 16 2 of 2 27 of 86 7 of 10 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael dos Anjos 15 of 34 44% 5 of 23 9 of 10 1 of 1 8 of 26 7 of 8 0 of 0
Kevin Lee 12 of 32 37% 10 of 28 2 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 26 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Rafael dos Anjos 14 of 24 58% 9 of 18 4 of 5 1 of 1 8 of 17 5 of 6 1 of 1
Kevin Lee 12 of 30 40% 9 of 25 3 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 26 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Rafael dos Anjos 14 of 19 73% 8 of 12 4 of 5 2 of 2 4 of 9 6 of 6 4 of 4
Kevin Lee 2 of 11 18% 1 of 9 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1
4 Rafael dos Anjos 17 of 34 50% 14 of 30 0 of 1 3 of 3 13 of 28 0 of 0 4 of 6
Kevin Lee 9 of 24 37% 3 of 17 4 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Al Iaquinta
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC on Fox: Lee vs. Iaquinta 2 · Dec 15, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Al Iaquinta 0 102 of 296 34% 121 of 319 3 of 5 60% 0 0 5:27
Kevin Lee 0 111 of 228 48% 113 of 230 0 of 7 0% 0 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Al Iaquinta 0 23 of 86 26% 23 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Lee 0 20 of 51 39% 20 of 51 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Al Iaquinta 0 34 of 69 49% 43 of 81 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:44
Kevin Lee 0 18 of 35 51% 18 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Al Iaquinta 0 10 of 35 28% 20 of 46 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:29
Kevin Lee 0 16 of 29 55% 18 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Al Iaquinta 0 17 of 61 27% 17 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Lee 0 24 of 60 40% 24 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Al Iaquinta 0 18 of 45 40% 18 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:14
Kevin Lee 0 33 of 53 62% 33 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Al Iaquinta 102 of 296 34% 80 of 267 14 of 21 8 of 8 81 of 273 1 of 1 20 of 22
Kevin Lee 111 of 228 48% 82 of 189 19 of 28 10 of 11 110 of 226 0 of 0 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Al Iaquinta 23 of 86 26% 17 of 77 4 of 7 2 of 2 23 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Lee 20 of 51 39% 12 of 38 5 of 9 3 of 4 20 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Al Iaquinta 34 of 69 49% 29 of 62 3 of 5 2 of 2 15 of 48 0 of 0 19 of 21
Kevin Lee 18 of 35 51% 12 of 29 4 of 4 2 of 2 17 of 34 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Al Iaquinta 10 of 35 28% 5 of 29 3 of 4 2 of 2 8 of 33 1 of 1 1 of 1
Kevin Lee 16 of 29 55% 12 of 23 3 of 5 1 of 1 16 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 1
4 Al Iaquinta 17 of 61 27% 13 of 57 3 of 3 1 of 1 17 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Lee 24 of 60 40% 16 of 50 4 of 6 4 of 4 24 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Al Iaquinta 18 of 45 40% 16 of 42 1 of 2 1 of 1 18 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Lee 33 of 53 62% 30 of 49 3 of 4 0 of 0 33 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Edson Barboza
TKO (doctor stoppage) R5 2:18 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · Apr 21, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Lee 0 51 of 106 48% 64 of 119 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Edson Barboza 0 142 of 241 58% 233 of 344 4 of 9 44% 0 0 15:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Lee 0 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 40 of 64 62% 60 of 89 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:18
2 Kevin Lee 0 7 of 15 46% 9 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 34 of 46 73% 76 of 91 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:12
3 Kevin Lee 0 19 of 34 55% 30 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Edson Barboza 0 16 of 48 33% 19 of 51 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:11
4 Kevin Lee 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 38 of 56 67% 64 of 86 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:33
5 Kevin Lee 0 16 of 30 53% 16 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 14 of 27 51% 14 of 27 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:46
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Lee 51 of 106 48% 26 of 73 20 of 26 5 of 7 47 of 102 2 of 2 2 of 2
Edson Barboza 142 of 241 58% 138 of 236 3 of 4 1 of 1 46 of 122 0 of 0 96 of 119
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Lee 4 of 12 33% 2 of 9 0 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 40 of 64 62% 40 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 15 0 of 0 37 of 49
2 Kevin Lee 7 of 15 46% 5 of 12 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 11 2 of 2 2 of 2
Edson Barboza 34 of 46 73% 32 of 44 2 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 15 0 of 0 27 of 31
3 Kevin Lee 19 of 34 55% 8 of 20 9 of 11 2 of 3 19 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 16 of 48 33% 14 of 45 1 of 2 1 of 1 16 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Kevin Lee 5 of 15 33% 3 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 38 of 56 67% 38 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 17 0 of 0 32 of 39
5 Kevin Lee 16 of 30 53% 8 of 19 7 of 9 1 of 2 16 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 14 of 27 51% 14 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0 14 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Tony Ferguson
Submission (triangle choke) R3 4:02 · UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · Oct 07, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tony Ferguson 0 54 of 103 52% 57 of 106 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:02
Kevin Lee 0 55 of 119 46% 71 of 137 3 of 6 50% 0 0 4:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tony Ferguson 0 13 of 23 56% 14 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Kevin Lee 0 27 of 58 46% 38 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:16
2 Tony Ferguson 0 27 of 54 50% 27 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Lee 0 22 of 49 44% 22 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Tony Ferguson 0 14 of 26 53% 16 of 28 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Kevin Lee 0 6 of 12 50% 11 of 19 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tony Ferguson 54 of 103 52% 40 of 81 6 of 13 8 of 9 40 of 85 1 of 1 13 of 17
Kevin Lee 55 of 119 46% 41 of 101 14 of 18 0 of 0 35 of 90 0 of 1 20 of 28
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tony Ferguson 13 of 23 56% 7 of 16 2 of 3 4 of 4 10 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 4
Kevin Lee 27 of 58 46% 22 of 52 5 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 32 0 of 0 18 of 26
2 Tony Ferguson 27 of 54 50% 21 of 42 3 of 8 3 of 4 27 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Lee 22 of 49 44% 15 of 40 7 of 9 0 of 0 22 of 48 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Tony Ferguson 14 of 26 53% 12 of 23 1 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 12 1 of 1 10 of 13
Kevin Lee 6 of 12 50% 4 of 9 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 2 of 2