Career Averages - Conor McGregor
Career Averages - José Aldo
Conor McGregor - Fight History
AJ picks Max Holloway to win, citing McGregor's five-year layoff, age (37), and the fact that Holloway is in-season and has superior cardio and durability. He believes McGregor will fade after the first round and that Holloway's volume and body work will lead to a late stoppage. AJ also notes that McGregor's power is his only path, but Holloway's mobility and chin make that unlikely.
AJ thinks Conor McGregor's best chance is early in the first two rounds, but expects Max Holloway to be powerful at welterweight and doubts McGregor's timing after the layoff. He believes Holloway is more likely to win as the fight continues, and suggests Holloway by KO under 3.5 rounds at +125. He also notes that if McGregor wins, it would likely be a KO in round one or two.
AJ picks Max Holloway over Conor McGregor, citing McGregor's long layoff, partying, and injury history. He believes Holloway's activity, durability, and cardio will be decisive, and expects a later-stage TKO as McGregor fades. AJ notes that McGregor's best performances were at lower weights and that his 170-pound cardio has been questionable.
AJ acknowledges the temptation to pick McGregor due to his aura and recent upsets, but ultimately sides with Holloway. He notes Holloway's proven chin at 170 and that he only loses when held down all fight, while McGregor has been out for over 4 years. He believes Holloway's durability and activity give him the edge.
AJ picks Max Holloway by knockout in the second or third round. He believes Holloway's pace, cardio, and combination punching will overwhelm McGregor, who is returning after a five-year layoff and a serious leg injury. He notes Holloway's recent wins over top competition and expects McGregor to fade after the first round.
AJ picks Max Holloway to win, likely by knockout. He notes Holloway is minus 210 and thinks McGregor's long layoff makes a decision win unlikely. He suggests Holloway by KO in rounds 2 or 3 as prop bets, but doesn't love the main event betting lines overall.
Angelo believes Max Holloway is better everywhere: striking, grappling, cardio, fight IQ. He notes Conor is old, slow, rusty, and hasn't fought in 5 years, with no cardio even in his prime. He expects Holloway to finish McGregor.
Angelo picks Max Holloway confidently, stating Conor McGregor has no chance. He cites McGregor's five-year layoff, age (38), loss of speed and timing, and never having good cardio. He compares McGregor's leg break to Anderson Silva and Chris Weidman's similar injuries leading to decline. He believes Holloway will respect McGregor early but take over and finish him.
Big Brady picks Max Holloway to win by second-round knockout. He is surprised by the betting line and money coming in on McGregor, citing McGregor's one win in nine years and five-year layoff. He acknowledges McGregor's early power but believes Holloway's volume and pressure will break him. He thinks Holloway will finish McGregor in the second round.
Big Brady is leaning towards Max Holloway but is very hesitant due to the suspicious line movement and McGregor's early KO threat. He notes Holloway's elite durability and cardio, but acknowledges his chin was cracked by Topuria. He gives McGregor a 25% chance, mostly via round 1 KO, and is waiting to see if Holloway's odds drop further before betting.
Big Brady is heavily backing Max Holloway, taking the -5.5 point spread at -150 for 3 units. He believes Conor McGregor's five-year layoff, leg injury, and partying lifestyle leave him with only a couple minutes of explosiveness. He expects Holloway to drown McGregor in deep waters and finish him in rounds 2-3, as McGregor cannot win more than one round. He also has 5 units on the fight not going to decision across two parlays, calling a McGregor decision a 'rigged outcome.'
Big Brady picks Max Holloway, citing Conor McGregor's five-year layoff, injury, and one win in the last decade. He notes Holloway's durability (most significant strikes absorbed) and believes McGregor's only chance is an early KO, but Holloway will weather the storm and finish him in rounds 2-4. He doubts McGregor has 15 good minutes in him.
Cody picks Max Holloway, emphasizing McGregor's inactivity, age (38), leg injury, and lack of durability. He believes Holloway's volume, cardio, and recent elite competition give him a clear edge. He expects Holloway to win by TKO and thinks the fight doesn't go the distance.
Daniel Levi picks Max Holloway to finish Conor McGregor, citing McGregor's five-year layoff, leg break, and history of fading in fights. He notes that McGregor's best chance is an early knockout, but Holloway's durability and volume will overwhelm him as the fight progresses. Levi references Holloway's slow starts but believes he can weather the early storm and take over.
Jacob picks Conor McGregor for sentimental reasons, acknowledging it's unlikely. He believes McGregor still has power and accuracy, and that Holloway's chin has shown cracks. He thinks if McGregor lands his left hand early, he could knock Holloway out. However, he admits McGregor's cardio is a major issue and that Holloway should win. He says to pick Max but bet Max, but he's sticking with his boy.
Lucrative James picks Max Holloway to win via knockout, likely in rounds 2 or 3. He acknowledges Conor McGregor's puncher's chance early but believes Holloway's durability, cardio, and five-round experience will overwhelm McGregor, who has been inactive and suffered a severe leg injury. He notes that McGregor's power fades after round one and that Holloway has faced much tougher competition recently.
The host is confident in Holloway winning by TKO, citing McGregor's long layoff, ring rust, likely decline in speed, and the damage he has done to his body. He expects Holloway's volume and pressure to drown McGregor in the middle rounds, and recommends waiting for a better line on Holloway as McGregor money comes in.
The host recalls that McGregor used grappling to edge out the first fight in 2013, but notes Holloway has since transcended to a much higher level. He expects Holloway's high pace, volume, and pressure to drown McGregor, leading to a second, third, or fourth round TKO stoppage.
Paul picks Max Holloway citing activity, durability, and McGregor's long layoff and distractions. He notes Holloway's volume and cardio advantages, and that McGregor's best days are behind him. He mentions he already placed a small bet on Holloway and expects the line to move further.
The MMA Guru picks Max Holloway to win by TKO in the third or fourth round. He doubts McGregor's ability to return after five years off and believes Holloway's improved striking and cardio will be decisive. He predicts McGregor will start strong but fade, and Holloway will put him away with body shots and combinations against the cage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 36 of 66 | 54% | 36 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:18 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 27 of 38 | 71% | 43 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Poirier | 0 | 36 of 66 | 54% | 36 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:18 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 27 of 38 | 71% | 43 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Poirier | 36 of 66 | 54% | 35 of 62 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 46 |
| Conor McGregor | 27 of 38 | 71% | 13 of 21 | 6 of 9 | 8 of 8 | 17 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Poirier | 36 of 66 | 54% | 35 of 62 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 46 |
| Conor McGregor | 27 of 38 | 71% | 13 of 21 | 6 of 9 | 8 of 8 | 17 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 11 |
Angelo flips his pick from the last fight, now favoring Conor. He notes that in the first fight, Conor landed everything with power and had Dustin in trouble multiple times, but didn't capitalize due to pacing. He believes Conor will have a plan for the leg kicks this time and will get the job done. He also placed a bet on Conor by KO/TKO for plus odds.
Big Brady picks Conor McGregor to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Conor has the X-factor power, being the hardest hitter pound-for-pound, and that Poirier absorbs a lot of strikes (4.17 per minute). He expects Conor to make adjustments, stuff takedowns, check leg kicks, and keep the fight at range. He acknowledges Poirier's durability but believes Conor will land a knockout.
Cody picks Poirier based on Conor's fading cardio after the first round, Poirier's durability and leg kicks, and the American Top Team camp. He notes Conor's power early but expects Poirier to take over late. He hasn't bet yet, waiting to see how the press conferences affect Poirier's mindset.
Daniel Levi picks Dustin Poirier to win the trilogy. He emphasizes Poirier's superior cardio, output, and durability, noting that Poirier has the most knockouts in UFC lightweight history and has shown he can overcome adversity. He points out that since 2016, Poirier is 7-1 while McGregor is 1-3, and that McGregor struggles in deep waters and has diminishing durability. He predicts a submission win for Poirier, citing the check right hook, calf kicks, takedowns, and clinch work as key factors.
Jacob initially favored Dustin but switched to Conor after rewatching the first fight. He notes Conor landed everything in round one but paced himself too much. He thinks Conor will blitz early to avoid calf kicks and finish in the first round. He also mentions a possible staph infection on Conor's elbow, which could affect cardio and push Conor to an early finish.
I'm going with Poirier here, but I have no real confidence. I think Poirier's durability and cardio have improved at 155, and he can eat McGregor's shots now. McGregor might have a new game plan, but I expect Poirier to take over in the later rounds and finish him, probably in the third or fourth round. I'm not betting this fight myself, but I like Poirier inside the distance and the fight not going to decision.
Paul picks Poirier, citing Conor's durability issues and long layoffs. He notes Conor's power early but believes Poirier's durability and cardio will prevail. He mentions the distraction of Conor's trash talk and the Colby Covington sparring video, but still favors Poirier.
The Guru predicts Poirier will win by TKO in the third round. He expects McGregor to start strong, winning the first two rounds with good striking and body work, but Poirier's calf kicks and clinch work will wear McGregor down. By the third round, McGregor will fatigue, and Poirier will land a big elbow and follow-up shots to finish him against the cage. The Guru notes McGregor will have a more impressive performance than their first fight but the outcome will be the same.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Poirier | 1 | 48 of 91 | 52% | 53 of 98 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 29 of 66 | 43% | 52 of 92 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Poirier | 0 | 17 of 37 | 45% | 22 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:40 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 15 of 34 | 44% | 38 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:07 | |
| 2 | Dustin Poirier | 1 | 31 of 54 | 57% | 31 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 14 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Poirier | 48 of 91 | 52% | 30 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 18 of 21 | 46 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Conor McGregor | 29 of 66 | 43% | 23 of 60 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 27 of 63 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Poirier | 17 of 37 | 45% | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 11 | 17 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Conor McGregor | 15 of 34 | 44% | 12 of 31 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dustin Poirier | 31 of 54 | 57% | 22 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 10 | 29 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Conor McGregor | 14 of 32 | 43% | 11 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Conor McGregor to win by first-round knockout, similar to their first fight. He notes McGregor's power and accuracy as key advantages, and believes Poirier's cardio won't be a factor because the fight won't go deep. He acknowledges Poirier could be a live dog but ultimately sides with McGregor's striking superiority.
Daniel Levi picks Conor McGregor to win early, citing McGregor's devastating power and ability to finish fights in the first round. He acknowledges Poirier's improved chin at lightweight and his path to victory if he survives the early storm, but believes McGregor's power is too much. Levi expresses personal rooting interest for Poirier but makes a logical pick for McGregor.
McGregor has the precision and power to replicate his first-round knockout from their first fight. Poirier is durable but has been knocked down by lesser power. McGregor's takedown defense is solid, and he should be able to keep the fight on the feet. Poirier's cardio advantage may not matter if McGregor lands early. I see McGregor winning by first-round KO.
The MMA Guru believes Conor McGregor's improved boxing, especially his left hand, will be too much for Dustin Poirier. He notes that Poirier has not thrown many kicks since his hip surgery and will rely on boxing, which plays into McGregor's strengths. He predicts McGregor will land a big left hand in the first round, knocking Poirier out cold around the four-minute mark, similar to the Michael Johnson KO. He dismisses the idea of a 60-second KO but is confident McGregor wins.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor McGregor | 1 | 19 of 26 | 73% | 20 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Donald Cerrone | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conor McGregor | 1 | 19 of 26 | 73% | 20 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Donald Cerrone | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor McGregor | 19 of 26 | 73% | 19 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 16 |
| Donald Cerrone | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conor McGregor | 19 of 26 | 73% | 19 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 16 |
| Donald Cerrone | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
We have reached the welterweight headliner, as the first simultaneous two-division champ in company history in McGregor (21-4, 9-2 UFC) comes to blows with a man who holds a plethora of UFC records in "Cowboy" Cerrone (36-13, 1 NC; 23-10 UFC). These two have combined for 46 stoppages in their illustrious careers. Drawing the assignment for this marquee matchup is referee Herb Dean, the two men touch gloves, and it's on! McGregor leaps forward with a left hand immediately, and Cerrone clinches up quickly. A few shoulder strikes from McGregor bloody the nose up of Cerrone, and McGregor fires a fierce head kick that nails Cerrone; "Cowboy" is wobbled. Sensing he is hurt, McGregor charges forward and leaps in the air with a flying knee. Cerrone blocks it, but McGregor starts to swing with reckless abandon. Cerrone turtles up and falls over in pain, while "Notorious" rains down punches. Dean steps in to take a close look at the action, but Cerrone is unable to intelligently defend himself. McGregor is relentless, swarming "Cowboy" with punch after punch until Dean has to call the fight. The fight ending in under a minute, McGregor jumps on the top of the cage to celebrate. No post-fight shenanigans or antics ensue, and the two men embrace after the fight, and McGregor uses the opportunity on the microphone to celebrate his achievements and advertise his whiskey. Additionally, McGregor remarks that he would like to stay at welterweight and calls out every fighter in the division, not to mention Paul Felder in the commentary desk.
The Official Result
Conor McGregor def. Donald Cerrone R1 0:40 via TKO (Punches)
Daniel picks Conor McGregor to win by knockout, likely in the first round. He notes that McGregor's left hand is a huge factor and that Cerrone has historically folded under big lights. However, he questions McGregor's motivation and fatigue issues, but believes this is a tune-up fight for McGregor.
The host picks Conor McGregor to win by first-round KO, citing McGregor's range, speed, in-and-out movement, and left hand as key advantages. He believes Cerrone will struggle to deal with these attributes and that McGregor will set up a trap and land a clean left hand. However, he notes that if Cerrone's odds reach +300, he might place a small bet on Cerrone due to value, but his official prediction remains McGregor by first-round KO.
The host strongly favors Conor McGregor, citing his first-round focus and accuracy against Donald Cerrone's lack of head movement and slow starts. He notes Cerrone's recent KO loss to Justin Gaethje and the short turnaround (4 months), which raises chin concerns. He believes McGregor's takedown defense is underrated and that Cerrone's wrestling won't be effective. He predicts a first-round KO by McGregor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 70 of 119 | 58% | 104 of 157 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 | 0 | 12:14 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 51 of 81 | 62% | 96 of 128 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 18 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:08 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 39 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 41 of 60 | 68% | 58 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:22 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 7 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 15 of 37 | 40% | 17 of 39 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 34 of 52 | 65% | 44 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 11 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:57 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khabib Nurmagomedov | 70 of 119 | 58% | 58 of 105 | 11 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 53 | 1 of 3 | 45 of 63 |
| Conor McGregor | 51 of 81 | 62% | 34 of 60 | 16 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 35 of 65 | 10 of 10 | 6 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 7 of 9 | 77% | 7 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 |
| Conor McGregor | 6 of 7 | 85% | 6 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | |
| 2 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 41 of 60 | 68% | 33 of 52 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 36 of 51 |
| Conor McGregor | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 15 of 37 | 40% | 12 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 34 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Conor McGregor | 34 of 52 | 65% | 22 of 39 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 43 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 7 of 13 | 53% | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Conor McGregor | 6 of 9 | 66% | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Referee Herb Dean will oversee tonight’s lightweight championship main event, with judges Derek Cleary, Sal D’Amato and Junichiro Kamijo scoring the bout should it complete the scheduled five rounds. The fighters are kept a few feet apart during final instructions, and they opt not to touch gloves. McGregor takes the center of the cage at the start and lobs a long left hand at Nurmagomedov, who circles to McGregor’s right around the outside. Nurmagomedov shoots a long single-leg, but McGregor sprawls, then stands and balances on one foot as “The Eagle” tries to spin him down. Nurmagomedov’s next effort yields a takedown, and plants McGregor at the base of the fence, triangling the Irishman’s legs to keep him grounded. Nurmagomedov complains that McGregor is grabbing his shorts, and referee Dean appears to swat McGregor’s hands away. Halfway through the round, Nurmagomedov remains on top, controlling McGregor’s leg and burying his head under the challenger’s chin. McGregor tries to post and stand, but Nurmagomedov still has control of his legs. McGregor frees his legs and tries butterfly guard; Nurmagomedov immediately passes to half guard and puts heavy pressure on McGregor’s torso. McGregor remains flat on his back in the final minute, trying to punch and palm strike but having little room to do so. Nurmagomedov postures up just before the horn to land a pair of punches, but McGregor saunters back to his corner with a smile on his face.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Round 2
McGregor takes the center again and fires a few kicks at Nurmagomedov, then narrowly misses with a leaping knee. Nurmagomedov comes back to the middle and floors McGregor with a missile right hand. McGregor gets back on unsteady legs and engages in a brief firefight before Nurmagomedov opts to double-leg and plow “The Notorious” to the floor. McGregor is flattened out, his right side flush to the fence as Nurmagomedov passes to side control. Nurmagomedov has an arm-triangle framed up, but he abandons it in favor of full mount. McGregor scrambles to recover full guard, but now Nurmagomedov is posturing up to land right hands to the body, a few left hands to the face. McGregor is eating some hard shots in between chatting with Nurmagomedov, who’s turning up the volume on his ground-and-pound toward the middle of the frame. Nurmagomedov stands over McGregor and bombs him with punches, both hands falling on the challenger’s face. Nurmagomedov can’t produce a finish, so he comes back to the ground, in side control on McGregor’s right side. Nurmagomedov leans across the body to try a kimura on McGregor’s left arm, but the fence gives him little room to work. McGregor sits up against the wall and leaves his neck exposed; Nurmagomedov gets a headlock but releases as McGregor stands up, now with 40 seconds on the clock. Nurmagomedov keeps him glued to the fence, with McGregor landing a few elbows to the side of the champion’s head in the closing seconds.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round 10-8 Nurmagomedov
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-8 Nurmagomedov
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-8 Nurmagomedov
Round 3
McGregor comes at Nurmagomedov with uppercuts to the start the round, mixing up his punches to the body and head with middling success. Nurmagomedov snaps off a jab, deflects a hard left hand, but he’s not giving McGregor much to worry about in terms of offense. The challenger continues to press forward, now sprawls on a shot and stands Nurmagomedov back up. McGregor lands a clinch elbow, but Nurmagomedov pushes him away and socks him with a hard right. Two minutes in, Nurmagomedov initiates a clinch on the fence; this time, McGregor peels the Russian’s hands away and walks him back to the middle of the cage. Nurmagomedov doubles up on a jab; McGregor answers with a body blow. McGregor shrugs off another clinch, but Nurmagomedov comes back to drive him against the fence. McGregor climbs back up from a brief takedown as Nurmagomedov keeps him pinned to the wall with 60 seconds on the clock. With his hands being controlled, McGregor’s only option in this position is to throw knees, but he has little space to do so
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Round 4
McGregor takes the center of the cage and keeps Nurmagomedov at a distance with long jabs and front kicks to the body. After a minute of this, however, Nurmagomedov bulldozes his way forward and plants McGregor on the ground at the foot of the fence. McGregor gets to his feet and puts both hands on the ground, but Nurmagomedov rips him away from the wall and tries to take the challenger’s back. McGregor rolls over, leaving Nurmagomedov in a three-quarter mount with McGregor trapping his right foot. Nurmagomedov abandons another arm-triangle choke setup but remains in full mount at the halfway point of the round. After eating a few solid left hands, McGregor rolls over, giving up his back. Within seconds, Nurmagomedov has his right arm wrapped around the Irishman’s jaw; seconds later, McGregor is tapping out.
What ensues is chaos. Nurmagomedov initially has words for McGregor, failing to stand up immediately after referee Dean stops the fight. The champion then climbs out of the cage and rushes into the crowd, apparently attacking someone from the McGregor camp who was sitting cageside. Meanwhile, inside the cage, one of Nurmagomedov’s cornermen -- Zubaira Tukhugov, according to UFC announcer Jon Anik -- reportedly attacked and landed a right hand on Conor McGregor. McGregor is escorted backstage by security and commissioners, while Nurmagomedov remains in the cage, demanding to have his hand raised.
“This is what I believe,” UFC President Dana White tells him. “If I put this belt on you, everybody’s gonna start throwing s--t into the Octagon.”
Moments later, Nurmagomedov is whisked backstage, and Bruce Buffer reads the official decision in an empty cage.
The Official Result
Khabib Nurmagomedov def. Conor McGregor via Submission (Neck Crank) R4 3:03
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 9 of 41 | 21% | 12 of 46 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Eddie Alvarez | 3 | 32 of 84 | 38% | 40 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conor McGregor | 0 | 6 of 29 | 20% | 6 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Eddie Alvarez | 2 | 18 of 57 | 31% | 20 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:52 | |
| 2 | Conor McGregor | 0 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 6 of 17 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Eddie Alvarez | 1 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor McGregor | 9 of 41 | 21% | 2 of 27 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 4 | 9 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Eddie Alvarez | 32 of 84 | 38% | 24 of 71 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 24 of 67 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conor McGregor | 6 of 29 | 20% | 1 of 18 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Eddie Alvarez | 18 of 57 | 31% | 15 of 51 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 10 | |
| 2 | Conor McGregor | 3 of 12 | 25% | 1 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Eddie Alvarez | 14 of 27 | 51% | 9 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Veteran official “Big” John McCarthy is the referee for tonight’s 155-pound title fight, with judges Sal D’Amato, Chris Lee and Jeff Mullen scoring the bout. Alvarez opens with a few hard chops to McGregor’s extended lead leg, while the challenger works from the center, pushing out toward Alvarez near the fence. Alvarez comes rushing inside with sloppy punches and gets clipped on the temple by McGregor’s counter left. The champion hits the deck for a second but scrambles back to his feet before McGregor can capitalize on the knockdown. Alvarez wants to tie up, gets shoved away by the Irishman. Alvarez rushes inside once more, and again he’s made to pay by McGregor’s left hand. McGregor floors Alvarez for the third time, now up against the fence, but Alvarez rolls up underneath and survives by clinging to McGregor’s legs. McGregor stacks him up but can’t finish the job before Alvarez is able to stand and dash away. McGregor is giving Alvarez no room, keeping him near to the fence and shutting down the American’s attempt at a double-leg. Alvarez digs into McGregor’s body with a punch and a front kick in the closing seconds of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-8 McGregor
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-8 McGregor
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Round 2
McGregor finds a home for his left hand again early in round two; he’s also able to shut down another high double-leg attempt from Alvarez, who’s struggling to find a way into this fight. McGregor taunts the champion by standing in front of Alvarez with his hands behind his back. Alvarez takes some big swings but can’t find the mark, and instead he winds up pressing McGregor against the wall with an underhook. They hit the midway point of the round before they separate. When they do, McGregor steps forward and floors Alvarez with a left hand behind the ear and a follow-up right hook. Alvarez drops to his back in a daze, and referee McCarthy rushes in to rescue him from any further damage.
The Official Result
Conor McGregor def. Eddie Alvarez via TKO (Punches) R2 3:04
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 166 of 343 | 48% | 252 of 435 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 5:50 |
| Nate Diaz | 3 | 164 of 286 | 57% | 197 of 322 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conor McGregor | 0 | 25 of 73 | 34% | 25 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nate Diaz | 1 | 34 of 58 | 58% | 34 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Conor McGregor | 0 | 37 of 76 | 48% | 51 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Nate Diaz | 2 | 34 of 70 | 48% | 36 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 3 | Conor McGregor | 0 | 49 of 87 | 56% | 79 of 117 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 26 of 45 | 57% | 37 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 4 | Conor McGregor | 0 | 36 of 63 | 57% | 48 of 76 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 46 of 76 | 60% | 56 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 | |
| 5 | Conor McGregor | 0 | 19 of 44 | 43% | 49 of 77 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:42 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 24 of 37 | 64% | 34 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor McGregor | 166 of 343 | 48% | 107 of 256 | 50 of 71 | 9 of 16 | 88 of 227 | 77 of 112 | 1 of 4 |
| Nate Diaz | 164 of 286 | 57% | 98 of 212 | 26 of 29 | 40 of 45 | 137 of 253 | 27 of 32 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conor McGregor | 25 of 73 | 34% | 11 of 49 | 6 of 11 | 8 of 13 | 25 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Diaz | 34 of 58 | 58% | 14 of 35 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 19 | 34 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Conor McGregor | 37 of 76 | 48% | 22 of 58 | 14 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 24 of 54 | 13 of 21 | 0 of 1 |
| Nate Diaz | 34 of 70 | 48% | 19 of 54 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 11 | 31 of 67 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Conor McGregor | 49 of 87 | 56% | 40 of 72 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 42 | 31 of 45 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Diaz | 26 of 45 | 57% | 17 of 35 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 22 of 41 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Conor McGregor | 36 of 63 | 57% | 22 of 45 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 36 | 19 of 27 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Diaz | 46 of 76 | 60% | 30 of 59 | 11 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 33 of 58 | 13 of 17 | 0 of 1 | |
| 5 | Conor McGregor | 19 of 44 | 43% | 12 of 32 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 22 | 14 of 19 | 1 of 3 |
| Nate Diaz | 24 of 37 | 64% | 18 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 29 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 61 of 140 | 43% | 66 of 145 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:39 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 77 of 152 | 50% | 89 of 169 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 28 of 74 | 37% | 32 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:35 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 23 of 62 | 37% | 26 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 2 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 33 of 66 | 50% | 34 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 54 of 90 | 60% | 63 of 101 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:47 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Diaz | 61 of 140 | 43% | 47 of 117 | 7 of 11 | 7 of 12 | 56 of 133 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 |
| Conor McGregor | 77 of 152 | 50% | 65 of 131 | 9 of 13 | 3 of 8 | 62 of 133 | 10 of 12 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Diaz | 28 of 74 | 37% | 18 of 58 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 10 | 26 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Conor McGregor | 23 of 62 | 37% | 16 of 50 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 6 | 23 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Nate Diaz | 33 of 66 | 50% | 29 of 59 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 30 of 62 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Conor McGregor | 54 of 90 | 60% | 49 of 81 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 39 of 72 | 10 of 12 | 5 of 6 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Veteran referee John McCarthy is the third man in the cage for tonight’s welterweight headliner, with judges Derek Cleary, Jeff Mullen and Glenn Trowbridge scoring the bout. The fighters are kept feet apart during final instructions, and there is no touch of gloves before or after the opening bell. McGregor opens with a pair of outside leg kicks as he pushes out from the center, moving Diaz backward toward the fence. Two more kicks connect on Diaz’s lead right leg, then another after he tries to step toward the middle. Diaz checks the next kick and gives McGregor one of his own. McGregor steps forward and connects with a left hand over the top. Diaz seems to recover quickly, then gets sent to the floor with a straight left. McGregor allows the jiu-jitsu specialist to stand as the enter the third minute of the opening round. Another slapping leg kick connects for McGregor, who shakes his head after dodging a two-piece Diaz combo. McGregor finds his straight left again as he catches Diaz leaning. The American’s face is marked up already, and he seems increasingly concerned with checking McGregor’s low kicks. Diaz takes another leg kick and walks into a left hand. The next kick from McGregor catches Diaz planting to throw a punch, and it looks like the hardest shot so far. Diaz is starting to talk to McGregor, throwing up his hands and walking forward on the Irishman. McGregor closes the round with a straight left and right hook, and Diaz is still trying to talk to him after the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Round 2
Diaz checks the first leg kick from McGregor, but the second one lands with authority. McGregor catches the American with another left hand, putting Diaz on his seat again. McGregor tells him to stand, then sends him right back to the floor with another combination. Diaz is bloodied now, leaking fluid from his nose as he staggers around the outside. Diaz grabs for McGregor’s legs, can’t get there, and now McGregor pushes forward with more leg kicks. Diaz tries to answer in kind, but there’s not much behind his kicks at this point. Three minutes remain in the second round, and McGregor is firmly in control of the bout. The leg kicks and left hands keep coming; though Diaz is trying to get back in the fight, the openings are simply not there. McGregor stands in front of Diaz but keeps his distance, diving inside to deliver more kicks and snappy punches. Suddenly, with 90 seconds left, Diaz starts to gain some steam. The Stockton native’s slapping punches are finding a home, and McGregor is being forced to his back foot. McGregor stumbles as he moves backward and eats a hard right as he finds his footing. Diaz swarms him against the fence, teeing off with both hands while McGregor tries to hold on and slow the pace. A looping right hand, now a body shot score for Diaz as the final seconds tick down.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Round 3
The welterweights have traded positions at the start of round three, with Diaz pushing out from the center and McGregor circling around the perimeter. Diaz steps out with a two-piece, pushes McGregor against the fence and looks for a trip takedown, but McGregor blocks it and reverses. Diaz spins him around again, now 80 seconds into the round. McGregor slaps with palm strikes to the sides of Diaz’s head as he fights off the clinch and trip. McGregor separates and pops Diaz with an elbow on the way out, then follows him to land a leg kick. Now it’s McGregor back in the middle and Diaz taking a breather, jawing at “The Notorious” between exchanges. McGregor throws a kick, but it’s snatched up by Diaz and used to run the Irish champ against the fence. Diaz scores with some short left hands, drops levels and tries a double-leg, but it’s blocked by McGregor. Halfway through the round, McGregor spins to take the outside position in the clinch. Diaz walks him along the fence, maybe looking for a trip, then reverses and lands body-head on the split. McGregor is jogging away as Diaz walks him down, drawing a mocking finger-point and more words from Diaz. A leg kick lands for McGregor, then a sweeping right hand for Diaz. They tie up away from the fence with 60 seconds left, then Diaz pops McGregor with a one-two on the break. Diaz shoves McGregor against the wall and begins teeing off with punches, rocking McGregor’s head from side to side. McGregor eats an uppercut, a right hook, but he’s still standing up against the fence. Final 20 seconds now, and Diaz is still at it, hurting McGregor with a body blow and a knee to the face. McGregor is purely defensive here, but he’ll survive to see the fourth round.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Diaz
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-8 Diaz
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 Diaz
Round 4
Diaz opens the fourth round with a body shot; McGregor gets him back with a few hard leg kicks. Diaz is pawing at the blood running down his face, some of it into his right eye. It’s Diaz pressing forward, but McGregor is doing better work jabbing off his back foot in this frame. McGregor steps forward to land another stiff jab, now a leg kick that seems to sting Diaz, who hops away. Diaz shoots for a takedown at the fence, but McGregor stuffs it and peels away the American’s hands. Diaz switches to body shots, peppering both sides of McGregor’s ribcage with short punches. McGregor lands a short elbow in the clinch; Diaz gives him one in return and then goes back to holding McGregor against the wall. McGregor spins him around inside the final two minutes, then breaks away with a punching combo. A left hand from Diaz appears to wobble McGregor, but the featherweight ace responds with a punch of his own just seconds later. Body-head combination scores for McGregor, and Diaz looks to be fading here as rivers of blood continue to cover his face.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Round 5
Diaz walks forward and gets roughed up by a leaping knee, but he catches hold of McGregor and shoves him against the fence. McGregor reverses after 20 seconds and breaks away from the clinch, leaving Diaz with another punch to his grisly face. McGregor strolls away with his back turned, hands on his hips, and Diaz follows him to bring on another clinch. Diaz drops for yet another double-leg attempt, but McGregor blocks this one, too. Diaz switches to body shots, then slaps McGregor with a right hand. McGregor walks away with his hands on his hips again; Diaz walks after him and sticks out a middle finger. Diaz gets McGregor moving backward and leaning over, then tags him with a right hand. Now it’s a clinch from Diaz, pulling down McGregor’s head to tee him up for a knee which doesn’t materialize. Diaz scores with a knee to the body, tries another takedown and gets blocked by McGregor, who takes a look up at the clock and sees 90 seconds remaining. Diaz is doing good work in the clinch but he whiffs on a slashing elbow and allows McGregor to spin him around. McGregor hits a trip takedown, but Diaz is back on his feet seconds later. Down to the final half minute, Diaz continues to pepper with short punches in the tie-up. He finally trips McGregor to the ground with only moments to go, and Diaz closes out the fight with some ground-and-pound.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Diaz (48-47 McGregor)
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Diaz (47-47 Draw)
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 Diaz (48-47 McGregor)
The Official Result
Conor McGregor def. Nate Diaz via Majority Decision (48-47, 48-47, 47-47) R5 5:00
José Aldo - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 1 | 68 of 167 | 40% | 71 of 170 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Aiemann Zahabi | 0 | 99 of 199 | 49% | 109 of 209 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 0 | 23 of 59 | 38% | 23 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aiemann Zahabi | 0 | 21 of 46 | 45% | 21 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 0 | 25 of 72 | 34% | 25 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aiemann Zahabi | 0 | 26 of 66 | 39% | 26 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 1 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 23 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Aiemann Zahabi | 0 | 52 of 87 | 59% | 62 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 68 of 167 | 40% | 48 of 135 | 13 of 25 | 7 of 7 | 67 of 166 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Aiemann Zahabi | 99 of 199 | 49% | 79 of 167 | 14 of 22 | 6 of 10 | 66 of 151 | 8 of 11 | 25 of 37 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 23 of 59 | 38% | 12 of 42 | 6 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aiemann Zahabi | 21 of 46 | 45% | 15 of 39 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 43 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 25 of 72 | 34% | 17 of 62 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aiemann Zahabi | 26 of 66 | 39% | 19 of 50 | 3 of 8 | 4 of 8 | 25 of 64 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 20 of 36 | 55% | 19 of 31 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Aiemann Zahabi | 52 of 87 | 59% | 45 of 78 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 44 | 4 of 6 | 25 of 37 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aldo (-218), Zahabi (+180)
Round 1
A day and a half ago, the “featured fight of the night” slot was booked as a bantamweight affair. Elder statesman and beloved champ Aldo (32-9, 14-8 UFC) could not get close to 136 pounds, so he and Zahabi (12-2, 6-2 UFC) agreed to bump it up to featherweight to keep it together due to strange Canadian weight regulations. In what could be a passing of the torch match—this could be said about the last five fights or so for the ex-WEC champ—referee Dan Miragliotta will be installed as the cage commander. The two relieved fighters who did not have to cut nearly as much weight as they expected bump fists to get the fight started. Aldo marches forward, guard high, and Zahabi circles all the way around him. Aldo keeps following his foe, neither man throwing a strike of merit for the first 50 seconds. Aldo finally lands a jab, but it is just one jab. Zahabi jabs him back, and Aldo responds with a speedy head kick that bounces into his foe’s armpit. Zahabi jumps in and out to strike, and Aldo lets go with a body kick and two hooks. Aldo cracks the Canadian with a right hand, sending Zahabi back in a hurry. He lands another right hand, and lifts up a knee to counter something that does not get to him. Zahabi gets off two punches, and Aldo does not even register them and loads up a right hand that bangs into the Canadian’s head. Zahabi reaches his foe with a body kick, and Aldo continues marching forward without fear. Aldo lifts his knee up to block a high kick, and he jabs with the ball of his foot extended. Aldo rips the body with two punches, and Zahabi’s guard lower as he frowns. Aldo doubles up on a jab to strike with a right hand, and he gets countered and sways to avoid the worst of them. Aldo counters Zahabi coming in with a hook, and he jabs the body when he notices Zahabi is not retaliating. Aldo scores a mighty low kick, and Zahabi walks towards him to score a pair of punches. Zahabi flashes a grin, and he splits the guard with a few jabs and a couple right hands. Aldo leans back and dodges several punches, and he engages with power offense of his own. Aldo uses a power jab to set up further punches, and he no-sells a left hook and fires one back. Aldo goes to the body, and Zahabi counters with a front kick and a punch. Aldo cracks him with a left hand, and the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Round 2
Zahabi starts off the round in a flurry, crashing the pocket and kneeing the former champ flush in the chest. Aldo forces him to settle down with a front kick to the midsection. Aldo flicks out a quick jab, and he sneaks in a low kick before Zahabi can get to him. Aldo checks a kick and swings for the fences, but the Canadian is able to escape them. Aldo checks a leg kick and snaps out his jab, intercepting his advancing opponent every time. Zahabi walks through a few to try to strike, and Aldo goes to the body and head. When Zahabi strikes back, Aldo is nowhere to be found. Aldo pounds the body with a right hand, and he takes a left hook on the forehead so he can rifle off a big hook of his own. Aldo slips a punch and has one scrape off his forehead, and they jab one another up. The former beltholder plays the matador, absorbing a single left hand and landing his own. Zahabi’s foot rises up in a combination, and his foot strikes the groin. He immediately apologizes, and Aldo knows it was totally by accident. They restart in a few seconds, with Zahabi cut on the side of his right eye. Aldo lets him come at him so he can counter, and he ducks a leaping left hand to sneak away. Zahabi kicks him square in the groin, and this time, Aldo is a little more irritated and takes some time, while saying “that’s two” to Miragliotta. Time is called, and Aldo is perturbed but they tap gloves to get going after 15 seconds and push ahead. Zahabi aims a kick much lower to avoid the groin, and he has another get checked. Aldo whips a body shot at him and looks to dodge a jab. Zahabi clips the former beltholder with a left hand, and Aldo pushes off with a front kick and a few jabs. Zahabi dings him with another left, and Aldo shakes his head. Aldo leaps in the air, landing a flying knee to the body at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Round 3
The fighters hug it out as the last round begins. Zahabi reintroduces himself with a one-two, beating Aldo to the punch with a few strikes until Aldo revs up his own engine and stinging the Canadian. Aldo lets Zahabi fly past him, but when Zahabi resets, Zahabi lands three punches down the middle. Aldo shakes his head and drives a knee into his chest. Two body shots from the Brazilian land cleanly, and he ducks down and takes a left hand over the top along with a knee to the body. Aldo surges into action, hurting Zahabi with a knee, a right hand and a head kick that send him flying. Aldo punches his foe and drills Zahabi with a legal soccer kick, and Zahabi is all over the place and barely with it. Aldo chases after him and blasts him with another soccer kick, and Zahabi flops to his back and survives it. Miraculously, Zahabi is still in the fight, and he manages to stand back in front of Aldo, who is looking hard at the clock. The Brazilian is totally spent trying to force the finish, and suddenly momentum has shifted again. Zahabi pours it on, and he marches Aldo down and starts hurting him. A gassed Aldo shoots for a takedown, and Zahabi bowls him over and starts landing punches. Zahabi sits in Aldo’s guard, unleashing heavy punches and elbows. Zahabi continues to assault the former champ with unblocked elbows, and Aldo hangs on tight with nothing left to offer. Aldo keeps his hands up and breathes as hard as one can, and he clings to Zahabi while Zahabi offers more elbows. Zahabi complains that Aldo is holding his glove, and a moment of confusion leads to Zahabi hammering Aldo with more elbows. One slashing elbow shreds open a cut on the middle of Aldo’s forehead, and blood streams down his face immediately. Zahabi keeps pouring it on, looking to Miragliotta for a stoppage that is not yet to come. Every time Zahabi nails Aldo, he looks to Miragliotta. Aldo holds on to save himself and run out the clock, and Zahabi helps him back to his feet when the shocking match concludes. Both teams lift their fighters on their shoulders and parade them around the cage, embracing while held on the shoulders. What a fight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Aldo)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Aldo)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Aldo)
The Official Result
Aiemann Zahabi def. Jose Aldo via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks José Aldo despite his age, noting he is still fast, clean, dangerous, durable, and impossible to take down. He argues Aldo won his last fight against Mario Bautista. He mentions an inside distance decision no action prop as an alternative if the moneyline is too steep. He believes Aldo is clearly the better fighter.
Big Brady picks the underdog Zahabi, citing his excellent striking defense (71%) and recent improved volume. He thinks the fight will be a close striking match that goes to decision, and with the fight in Canada, Zahabi could get the nod. He notes Aldo is 38 and hasn't used leg kicks in years, and believes the line is too wide.
Connor picks José Aldo, acknowledging that Zahabi has improved but arguing that Aldo's level of competition and technical striking will prevail. He notes that Zahabi's high guard and predictable patterns will be exploited by Aldo's body shots and counters. Connor expresses some concern about Aldo's age but ultimately believes he is still too good.
The host acknowledges Zahabi's recent streak but believes he will struggle against Aldo's Muay Thai. He notes that Aldo remains dangerous in striking even in losses and doubts Zahabi has the grappling or strength to control Aldo against the cage like Bautista did. He expects Aldo to lead in striking and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Aldo, believing he still has elite skills and will be too much for Zahabi. He thinks Aldo's reach, body shots, and experience will lead to a TKO, possibly in the second round. He doubts Zahabi can hold Aldo against the cage like other fighters have, and notes Aldo's motivation after the controversial Batista loss.
Zane picks José Aldo, arguing that Zahabi has never faced an elite-level athlete like Aldo. He notes that Zahabi's success comes from exploiting opponents who try to power through, but Aldo is a technical striker who will punish Zahabi's sloppy boxing. Zane believes Aldo's body work and counter-striking will be too much for Zahabi.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 51 of 117 | 43% | 65 of 139 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 49 of 142 | 34% | 90 of 196 | 0 of 10 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 7:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 40 of 81 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:20 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 25 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 19 of 53 | 35% | 31 of 65 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 17 of 48 | 35% | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 10 of 36 | 27% | 19 of 50 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 51 of 117 | 43% | 41 of 105 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 46 of 111 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
| José Aldo | 49 of 142 | 34% | 26 of 111 | 12 of 19 | 11 of 12 | 44 of 136 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 13 of 26 | 50% | 8 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 20 of 53 | 37% | 8 of 39 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 8 | 15 of 48 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 21 of 43 | 48% | 19 of 40 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| José Aldo | 19 of 53 | 35% | 15 of 46 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 17 of 48 | 35% | 14 of 44 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 10 of 36 | 27% | 3 of 26 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bautista (-155), Aldo (+130)
Round 1
Once dumped unceremoniously on the prelims, cooler heads have prevailed as “The King of Rio” Aldo (32-8, 14-7 UFC) is now positioned firmly on the main card of UFC 307. While the beloved former featherweight king was previously ready to say farewell to the sport, he appears reinvigorated and in as great of condition as ever. The promotion opted to match him against fellow striker Bautista (14-2, 8-2 UFC), in what may turn out to be a battle of leg kicks. Referee Mike Beltran will preside over the bantamweights, and he watches on as they tap their fists together to say hello. Bautista is the first to land a leg kick, and he punches his way into close range. Aldo blocks a head kick and kicks the lead leg back, and he allows Bautista to buzz past him and lets go with another one of his patented low kicks. Bautista splits the guard with a right hand, and he strings a few punches together to the body before shooting in for a takedown. Aldo places his back against the cage, stifling any hopes of a takedown, and they trade knees on the inside. Bautista irritates Aldo with a number of shoulder strikes, dirty boxing his opponent and kneeing him anywhere he can find a target. Beltran asks for more activity than short strikes, and Bautista changes levels but is stuffed again. A third effort similarly falls short. Aldo looks to his corner for ideas on how to escape, and Beltran is almost ready to get involved. Bautista slashes with an elbow and scores several more knees until Aldo has had enough and he escapes. Bautista scores a knee but is met with a low kick, and he jumps forward to strike and gets Aldo’s attention. Aldo springs away, and he has a left hand brush past his face and steels himself to stop a takedown. Bautista gets back into the clinch, where he stomps on Aldo’s toes and makes it grindy. Beltran tells them to work to finish, and Aldo shoves him away. Aldo walks him down and misses with a left hook, but he snaps out two jabs and a short punch combo. Aldo blocks the counters and reaches out with a left hand, and he gets knocked back when committing to a low kick. Aldo nails Bautista with an overhand right hand, and Bautista tries to pay him back with one immediately. Bautista kicks the former champ in the ribs and dances away from a one-two to peck at Aldo. “The King of Rio” knocks Bautista back a few steps with a combination of punches, and he ducks a whizzing foot to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Round 2
Fists are bumped to open the second stanza, and Aldo is ready for an advancing Bautista and lifts a knee preemptively. Bautista reaches him with a few distance strikes, and he dips down with a left and a right. A few snapping jabs shred a cut open on Bautista’s right eye, and Bautista’s head gets snapped back. Aldo tags him with a few left hands and a powerful knee, the latter landing when Bautista shot for a takedown. Aldo scores a left, and Bautista gets back going again and lines up long punches down the pipe. Aldo comes up short with another intercepting elbow, and he catches Bautista with a left and a right. Bautista walks him down and into a few more blows, and they land punches at the same time. Aldo drops his hands, and Bautista shoots for a takedown. Aldo keeps himself upright and absorbs several shoulder strikes and short blows from his opponent with his back to the cage. Beltran calls for Bautista to do more, and Bautista answers with a thumping shoulder strike and a level change. Aldo stops the second from succeeding, and he is met with a few more shoulder shots before splitting. Aldo tags Bautista with a knee, and when Bautista pays him back, Aldo gets angry. Unleashing massive power, Aldo lets his hands go, and he knocks Bautista around but cannot stun him. Bautista gets behind a jab, stabbing out his strikes until diving after a single. Aldo’s takedown defense is immaculate thus far, but he gets leaned on by the younger, more energetic fighter. Bautista lifts a leg up to try to ground him, and Aldo hops around to keep his balance before shoving Bautista away. Aldo unleashes a fury of four punches, and when going for more, Bautista surprises him with a jump knee. Aldo swings hard and misses, allowing Bautista to try and fail with one more takedown before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Round 3
Reaching the final frame, the bantamweights meet in the middle for a glove touch and a brief embrace. Aldo is still throwing heat, however, and he winds up with a right hand that comes up short. He pops out his jab a few times to follow, snapping Bautista’s head back when entering. Bautista jabs him back, and his high kick slides off the shoulder. Bautista scores a one-two, and Aldo peppers him with jabs and an overhand right. Bautista pokes out with jabs and a low kick, and Aldo’s strikes are far more impactful as Bautista reacts nearly every time he absorbs a blow. Bautista pressures forward and walks into a left hook, and he wings a right hand over the top to reply. Aldo digs a left to the body and is met with a charging takedown that pushes Aldo to the fence but no further. The Brazilian does not budge, fighting off a subsequent trip and otherwise being shoved against the fence. Bautista nearly disrupts Aldo’s balance and drags him to a knee, but Aldo pops back up as if his seat was on fire. Bautista doggedly pursues the takedown as Beltran calls for activity, and before long, there is a separation. Bautista immediately charges in for a double, and the crowd is not thrilled. Beltran does not wait long before telling Bautista to improve their position, and he nearly breaks them up but Aldo manages to do it for him. Aldo bursts into action, swinging with bad intentions and knocking Bautista back. Bautista tries to tie him up, and he drops low for a single to take the wind out of Aldo’s sails. Aldo lands two punches, catches Bautista mid-air with another and then knees his man in the gut as the final horn blares. It could go either way.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (29-28 Bautista)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)
The Official Result
Mario Bautista def. Jose Aldo via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Mario Bautista, citing his forward pressure, high volume striking, and youth. He believes José Aldo's age will eventually catch up to him, and that Bautista's pace and takedown threat will be too much. He notes Aldo looked good in his last fight but attributes that to Jonathan Martinez being gun-shy. He admits he is rooting for Aldo but thinks Bautista wins.
Big Brady picks José Aldo as an underdog, citing Aldo's elite takedown defense (91%) and superior striking. He believes Bautista will struggle to take Aldo down, and on the feet, Aldo should win exchanges. He notes Aldo looked great in his return against Jonathan Martinez and could even knock out Bautista, who has been finished before.
Cody picks Aldo, arguing that Aldo's recent win over Jonathan Martinez proved he still has it. He criticizes Bautista's resume, noting that his six-fight winning streak includes mostly low-level opponents. He believes Aldo's takedown defense and striking will be too much.
Connor also picks Bautista, echoing Zane's reasoning. He highlights Bautista's ability to build momentum and his fearlessness in pressing offense, which could break Aldo's aura of invincibility. He notes that Aldo's later career losses came against fighters who pressured him relentlessly, and Bautista has the right mix of skills to do the same.
Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo as a dog. He notes that Aldo still looks great and has only lost to the very top of the division. He points out that Mario Bautista's wins are against lower-level competition like Bonito Lopez and Ricky Simone, who is one-dimensional. Vreeland emphasizes that Aldo's takedown defense is elite, having stuffed 16 straight takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili, and that Bautista won't be able to wrestle him. He compares Bautista to Jonathan Martinez, whom Aldo easily beat, and believes Aldo is still above that level.
Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo, citing his legendary takedown defense and counter-striking. He notes that Aldo's boxing has improved and that Bautista's high volume will leave openings for Aldo's counters. Vreeland also mentions Aldo's performance against Jonathan Martinez and his ability to stuff all 16 takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili. He expects Aldo to win the first two rounds and coast to a decision.
Jeff Fox picks José Aldo. He notes that Aldo is still winning and has only lost to the very top of the division. He believes Aldo's defensive skills, especially his takedown defense, have not declined. Fox thinks Aldo has another win in him and likes the dog money at +120.
The host believes Bautista is a more dangerous opponent than Aldo's last fight. He thinks Bautista will land strikes from distance and crack Aldo a few times, preventing Aldo from getting into his groove. He notes that Bautista's opponents often grapple with him, but Aldo doesn't do that, and Bautista is closer to his prime while Aldo at 38 may be a step behind. He suggests Bautista could even get a finish.
Paul leans toward Bautista, citing his improvements and volume striking. He thinks Bautista can outwork Aldo over three rounds, though he acknowledges the risk of getting starstruck. He sees value at minus 130.
The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Mario Bautista, citing Aldo's superior striking, power, and body work. He questions Bautista's level of competition, noting close fights with Deonte Blackshear and Ricky Simon. He believes Aldo's physicality and takedown defense will be too much, and that Aldo's body shots will be effective at altitude. He predicts Aldo wins a decision, surviving a tricky third round.
Zane picks Bautista, though not confidently. He believes Bautista's relentless pressure, refusal to accept defeated positions, and ability to mix in takedowns could overwhelm the 38-year-old Aldo. He notes that Aldo has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Bautista's grappling threat could open up striking. However, he acknowledges Aldo's power and counter-striking make it a risky pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 0 | 77 of 139 | 55% | 101 of 174 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
| Jonathan Martinez | 0 | 52 of 118 | 44% | 80 of 151 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 0 | 17 of 46 | 36% | 17 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jonathan Martinez | 0 | 15 of 34 | 44% | 16 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 0 | 30 of 50 | 60% | 30 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jonathan Martinez | 0 | 14 of 38 | 36% | 20 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 0 | 30 of 43 | 69% | 54 of 77 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
| Jonathan Martinez | 0 | 23 of 46 | 50% | 44 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 77 of 139 | 55% | 41 of 96 | 26 of 33 | 10 of 10 | 70 of 132 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Jonathan Martinez | 52 of 118 | 44% | 36 of 96 | 9 of 15 | 7 of 7 | 50 of 116 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 17 of 46 | 36% | 5 of 30 | 6 of 10 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jonathan Martinez | 15 of 34 | 44% | 8 of 23 | 1 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 15 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 30 of 50 | 60% | 15 of 34 | 11 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 30 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jonathan Martinez | 14 of 38 | 36% | 12 of 35 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 30 of 43 | 69% | 21 of 32 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 36 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Jonathan Martinez | 23 of 46 | 50% | 16 of 38 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Martinez due to age and activity, believing Aldo is older than listed and rusty after two years. He notes Martinez's leg kicks and technical striking. However, he does not bet on the fight out of respect for Aldo and hopes Aldo wins.
Big Brady is torn due to Aldo's long layoff and retirement, but thinks Aldo's power and the Brazil factor could lead to a decision win. He notes Martinez's leg kicks may be less effective against Aldo. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Aldo by 'robbery decision'.
Cody picks Aldo, citing the Brazilian crowd and judging bias, Aldo's power to have singular moments, and Martinez's questionable chin. He notes Aldo's boxing activity keeps him sharp and that Martinez faces pressure in Brazil. Cody took Aldo at +145.
Daniel Vreeland picks Martinez by decision, citing Martinez's youth, leg kicks, and efficient grappling. He questions Aldo's motivation after retirement and notes that Aldo has not used his leg kicks or takedowns recently. He believes Martinez will win at kicking range and that Aldo's boxing focus may not be enough. He stays away from betting the moneyline due to uncertainty about which Aldo shows up.
Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Jonathan Martinez. He says he doesn't want to pick against Jose Aldo in Rio due to potential weird judging, but everything points to Martinez. Vreeland notes that Aldo has surprised before, but the circumstances suggest Martinez should win.
Jeff Fox picks Jonathan Martinez but calls it a pure pass fight. He acknowledges that prime Jose Aldo was better than Martinez, but questions Aldo's motivation since he has stated he wants to box and is fighting out his UFC contract. Fox thinks if Aldo is not motivated, Martinez will make him pay. He also notes the risk of judging in Rio and Aldo's ability to surprise. Fox says he doesn't want any part of the line but thinks Martinez wins.
Aldo is the Godfather of the kicking game and will shut down Martinez's kicks. He will use his speed and power advantage to crash the pocket and find Martinez's chin. Despite coming back from retirement at 37, Aldo's hand speed and power will be too much for Martinez, who is uncomfortable striking inside the pocket. Aldo knocks him out.
Paul picks Martinez, arguing Aldo gets out-struck in most fights and relies on moments. He believes Martinez's volume, speed, and leg kicks will overwhelm Aldo, who hasn't fought MMA in 10 months and looked poor in boxing. Paul sees Martinez winning by decision.
The MMA Guru picks José Aldo, predicting a body shot finish. He believes Aldo's boxing and low-kick defense will be key, and that Martinez's recent performances show vulnerabilities. He notes Aldo's wins over Marlon Vera and Rob Font, and expects his size and experience to overwhelm Martinez.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 38 of 67 | 56% | 59 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 57 of 147 | 38% | 135 of 230 | 0 of 16 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 5:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 21 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 16 of 49 | 32% | 21 of 54 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 25 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 62 of 84 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:54 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 30 of 69 | 43% | 52 of 92 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 38 of 67 | 56% | 11 of 35 | 21 of 25 | 6 of 7 | 35 of 63 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 57 of 147 | 38% | 20 of 102 | 10 of 14 | 27 of 31 | 43 of 132 | 14 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 15 of 25 | 60% | 1 of 8 | 11 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 16 of 49 | 32% | 2 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 14 | 15 of 47 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 11 of 22 | 50% | 5 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 11 of 29 | 37% | 5 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 12 of 20 | 60% | 5 of 12 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 30 of 69 | 43% | 13 of 49 | 5 of 7 | 12 of 13 | 19 of 58 | 11 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili over José Aldo, though he admits it's a tough pick and he'll be rooting for Aldo. He highlights Aldo's legendary takedown defense, noting that only Frankie Edgar has taken him down more than once in 27 Zuffa fights. However, Angelo believes that without Aldo's leg kicks to slow Merab's relentless wrestling, Aldo will be defending takedowns all night and likely lose a decision. He emphasizes Merab's insane 7.3 takedowns per 15 minutes and his chain-wrestling style.
Big Brady picks José Aldo as the underdog. He highlights Aldo's 90% takedown defense against elite competition, and believes Merab Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling will be neutralized. Aldo is the clearly better striker and has looked good recently. Brady expects Aldo to stuff takedowns, land more damage on the feet, and win a decision. He notes that Dvalishvili's wins are against lower-level competition and this is a big step up.
Cody picks Aldo as a live underdog, citing Aldo's excellent takedown defense (90% career), striking advantage, and ability to win rounds. He thinks Merab's run is overrated and that Aldo can exploit his aggressive style. He acknowledges it's a close fight but likes the plus money.
Daniel Levi picks Merab Dvalishvili to win a split decision, but he is hesitant because the fight is three rounds instead of five. He notes that Aldo has legendary takedown defense (90% over a long sample size) and will likely win the first round. However, he worries about Aldo's cardio in the elevation of Salt Lake City, as Aldo did not train at altitude. Levi believes Merab's relentless wrestling and pace will wear Aldo down in the second and third rounds, leading to a close decision. He acknowledges that Aldo could win a split decision and that there is value on Aldo as a dog.
Aldo's superior striking, get-up game, and takedown defense should allow him to land more damage than Dvalishvili, who struggles to hold opponents down. The host expects Aldo to win by knockout, possibly similar to the Jack Cartwright fight. He advises only 1 unit due to the risk of a changing of the guard.
Paul picks Merab but is not confident. He thinks Merab's relentless takedown attempts could be key, but notes his poor top control. He mentions he might play Merab over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks and prefers live betting.
The Guru predicts José Aldo wins by TKO in the second round. He describes Aldo popping the jab, landing leg kicks, and checking Merab's leg kicks. He sees Aldo stuffing takedowns, landing knees to the body, and eventually hurting Merab with body shots, leading to a TKO. He acknowledges the possibility that Aldo could get mashed up like he did against Yan in the fifth round, but believes his prediction will come true.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 0 | 149 of 305 | 48% | 193 of 350 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 |
| Rob Font | 2 | 86 of 161 | 53% | 96 of 172 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 9:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 0 | 36 of 90 | 40% | 37 of 91 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Rob Font | 1 | 26 of 41 | 63% | 27 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 0 | 48 of 89 | 53% | 48 of 89 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rob Font | 0 | 23 of 51 | 45% | 23 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 0 | 37 of 64 | 57% | 46 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rob Font | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 14 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:10 | |
| 4 | José Aldo | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 27 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rob Font | 1 | 10 of 12 | 83% | 15 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:35 | |
| 5 | José Aldo | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 35 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Rob Font | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 2:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 149 of 305 | 48% | 94 of 238 | 38 of 48 | 17 of 19 | 135 of 289 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 8 |
| Rob Font | 86 of 161 | 53% | 57 of 129 | 19 of 20 | 10 of 12 | 75 of 146 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 36 of 90 | 40% | 21 of 72 | 12 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 36 of 90 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rob Font | 26 of 41 | 63% | 19 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 23 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 48 of 89 | 53% | 23 of 60 | 13 of 17 | 12 of 12 | 48 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rob Font | 23 of 51 | 45% | 15 of 41 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 23 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 37 of 64 | 57% | 29 of 55 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 35 of 61 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Rob Font | 12 of 29 | 41% | 5 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 | 11 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 4 | José Aldo | 10 of 20 | 50% | 9 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 |
| Rob Font | 10 of 12 | 83% | 6 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | |
| 5 | José Aldo | 18 of 42 | 42% | 12 of 32 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 14 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Rob Font | 15 of 28 | 53% | 12 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks Rob Font, citing his volume, jab, and youth. He notes Aldo looked great against Munoz but Font's non-stop jab and five-round pace could be key. Angelo is worried about Aldo's leg kicks but goes with Font.
Big Brady picks Rob Font to win by decision, but with low confidence and says he will not bet the main event. He notes Font's high volume (5.58 sig strikes/min) and cardio advantage, and that Aldo has slowed down in past fights. He also points out that Aldo hasn't attempted a takedown since 2014, despite Font's poor takedown defense (53%). Brady thinks the line should be closer and would consider Aldo as a dog if betting. He expects a close fight with Font's volume being key.
Cody is tempted by the underdog price on Aldo, noting his career resurgence against Pedro Munoz. He argues that Aldo's losses are to elite fighters like Volkanovski and Yan, while Font's wins are over aging or chinny opponents. Cody believes Aldo's power and leg kicks could counter Font's jab, and that Aldo might get a close decision in Vegas. However, he acknowledges Aldo's cardio issues in championship rounds and is only slightly leaning towards him.
Daniel Levi picks José Aldo to win a decision, citing Aldo's improved output in recent fights, particularly the Munoz fight where he threw more in round three than earlier rounds. He believes Aldo has more weapons, including body work and leg kicks, and that Aldo's experience and ability to sneak through three rounds will be key. He acknowledges Rob Font's dangerous jab but thinks Aldo can overcome it.
Jacob picks José Aldo, citing his leg kicks, level changes, and veteran savvy. He notes Aldo worked with boxers to improve head movement and should mix in takedowns to slow Font's jab. Jacob is reluctant but thinks Aldo can win.
I lean Font. He has good cardio and volume, and he should be able to increase his output in the later rounds. Aldo has not won a five-round fight in years and tends to slow down. However, Aldo is still dangerous with his counters and body work. I think Font wins a decision, but I'm not confident enough to bet him. The decision prop at plus 195 is the play if you like Font.
Paul believes Rob Font is the rightful favorite due to his volume striking and jab. He thinks Font will outwork Aldo over five rounds, especially if Aldo doesn't land early damaging shots. Paul notes that Font's jab was effective against Cody Garbrandt and expects similar success here. He is confident in Font's ability to maintain pace and outland Aldo.
The MMA Guru picks José Aldo to win by majority decision (48-47). He expects Aldo to win the first three rounds with superior speed, body shots, and leg kicks. Font will rally in the fourth and fifth, pressuring and landing combinations, but Aldo's early work will secure the win. One judge may give a 10-8 fifth round to Font, but Aldo still wins.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 0 | 114 of 223 | 51% | 114 of 223 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 75 of 179 | 41% | 75 of 179 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 0 | 25 of 60 | 41% | 25 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 28 of 76 | 36% | 28 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 0 | 42 of 95 | 44% | 42 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 33 of 71 | 46% | 33 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 0 | 47 of 68 | 69% | 47 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 114 of 223 | 51% | 74 of 168 | 32 of 47 | 8 of 8 | 114 of 223 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 75 of 179 | 41% | 35 of 131 | 3 of 6 | 37 of 42 | 71 of 175 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 25 of 60 | 41% | 13 of 40 | 12 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 28 of 76 | 36% | 11 of 54 | 2 of 4 | 15 of 18 | 27 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 42 of 95 | 44% | 32 of 78 | 9 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 42 of 95 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 33 of 71 | 46% | 16 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 18 | 32 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 47 of 68 | 69% | 29 of 50 | 11 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 47 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 14 of 32 | 43% | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Munhoz, arguing that Aldo is likely older than his listed age (34) and may be on the wrong side of 40. He sees Munhoz as a younger, high-volume fighter with leg kicks who can come forward and win. He acknowledges Aldo's counter-striking but believes Munhoz's constant movement and pressure will be key.
Big Brady sees this as a very close fight between Aldo's power and Munhoz's volume. He leans toward Munhoz's volume, noting Aldo's low output in recent fights. He thinks Munhoz's durability (never finished) will allow him to outwork Aldo and win a decision. He calls it one of the toughest fights to call on the card.
Cody picks Munhoz, arguing that Aldo fades in later rounds and Munhoz has excellent cardio and durability. He notes Aldo's recent reliance on grappling against Vera won't work against Munhoz. Cody sees Munhoz winning by decision after dropping the first round, and likes the live betting opportunity.
Daniel Levi slightly leans Pedro Munhoz due to Munhoz's high output, durability, and pressure fighting style. He acknowledges that Aldo is technically superior and could win early rounds, but expects Munhoz to take over in the later rounds as Aldo fades. He also notes that Munhoz has been robbed by judges before, which makes him less confident, but he still picks Munhoz to get it done.
Aldo has shown he can adapt, using grappling to win rounds. He is the better striker and should check Munhoz's calf kicks. Munhoz is durable but gets hit a lot, and Aldo can outpoint him over three rounds. Aldo's cardio is better in three-round fights, and he should win a decision. Munhoz's path is marching forward and landing big shots, but Aldo's experience and technique should prevail.
Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He acknowledges Cody's reasoning and mentions interest in the under 2.5 rounds at +175, but does not commit to a side. He notes that Aldo may look good early but pace slows, and that grappling may not be an option for Aldo.
The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Pedro Munhoz. He notes Aldo's size advantage, reach, and speed, and believes three rounds is not enough for Munhoz to wear on Aldo. He predicts Aldo will win the first two rounds and take a 29-28 decision. He mentions Aldo's body shots and Munhoz's vulnerability to body strikes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 0 | 44 of 70 | 62% | 60 of 86 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:57 |
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 46 of 82 | 56% | 92 of 133 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:51 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 0 | 19 of 29 | 65% | 28 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 29 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 0 | 24 of 39 | 61% | 25 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 28 of 50 | 56% | 39 of 63 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 7 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:53 |
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 24 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 44 of 70 | 62% | 17 of 38 | 21 of 26 | 6 of 6 | 36 of 62 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Marlon Vera | 46 of 82 | 56% | 8 of 33 | 11 of 15 | 27 of 34 | 34 of 69 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 19 of 29 | 65% | 7 of 15 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Marlon Vera | 16 of 29 | 55% | 2 of 10 | 0 of 3 | 14 of 16 | 15 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 24 of 39 | 61% | 9 of 22 | 13 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 32 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Marlon Vera | 28 of 50 | 56% | 5 of 21 | 11 of 12 | 12 of 17 | 18 of 40 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marlon Vera | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
This embarrassment of riches continues tonight, as all-time great Aldo (28-7, 10-6 UFC) faces rising star “Chito” Vera (29-8, 1 NC; 17-8, 1 NC UFC) at bantamweight. Aldo will attempt to earn his first win at 135 pounds in his third try, and he will do so under the watchful eye of referee Dan Miragliotta. The two strikers touch gloves, and it’s time to throw down. Vera starts off with a front kick, and Aldo slaps it out of the way but gets kicked in the leg. The former champ jabs the body, and Vera steps back to kick Aldo’s leg a few times. Aldo slings an overhand right, and he gets off a heavy leg kick like the days of old. Aldo checks a kick, and he absorbs a strike that makes him slip. Vera takes advantage of this to charge in and take the fight down, but Aldo keeps his balance and stands tall against the fence. “Chito” knees Aldo’s thigh a few times as he clings to Aldo, and the two trade short clinch strikes while Vera embraces the grind. Miragliotta calls on Vera to work, so Aldo reverses the position and pushes off, but gets slapped in the face by Vera. Vera lets loose a head kick that gets blocked, and Aldo stalks him down with a few jabs. Aldo digs to the body with a left hand at the end of a short combination, and Vera backpedals against the fence as he eats another liver shot. “Chito” hacks at Aldo’s leg with another kick, but Aldo completely ignores it and blocks a head kick. Aldo slams his right hand on Vera’s stomach, and a thudding leg kick follows suit. Aldo drills Vera with another leg kick, and Vera is already switching stances to avoid these strikes. Aldo fakes a leg kick to draw out a reaction, and he comes up short with a punch to the body. Vera crashes in to clinch, and Aldo spins him out and takes the center of the cage again. Aldo tattoos Vera’s midsection with another punch, and Vera responds with a head kick. Aldo replies in kind, and comes after it with a pounding leg kick that gives WEC fans something to cheer about. The round ends as Vera goes for a spinning kick to the head.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Round 2
A confident Vera comes out of his corner striking, but Vera is there to greet him with a few leg kicks. The former champ lets loose a right hand, and he picks away at his opponent with kicks. Aldo pierces the midsection with a right hand, and a kick makes Vera retreat and bounce off the fence. Aldo jabs and absorbs a body kick, but he wades through it to swing a hook from each hand. When Vera crashes in, Aldo is easily out of the way and shoves his man back. Vera scores a stern leg kick, and Aldo sits down on a body shot and a looping uppercut. When Vera commits to another low kick, Aldo is there to meet him with a few crushing body shots. Vera wears them well, but Aldo is back for more and even absorbs the end of a spinning back fist without issue. Vera pushes into a clinch to pursue a trip takedown, but the Brazilian keeps his footing as he knees the body repeatedly. Vera very nearly lands a takedown, but Aldo not only stays standing, but he knees Vera to the liver and the head on the way up. Aldo’s right to the body gets countered by a quick hook from Vera, and Vera presses forward to tie up Aldo again. Aldo is content to pepper away at the body with short shots, and Vera pays him back with a stern knee while keeping the ex-champ pinned to the fence. Vera lands a few body shots and an elbow over the top to break up the clinch and conclude the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Round 3
The touch of gloves opens the round, but Vera is ready to throw leather. Aldo ducks a strike, and when “Chito” tries to clinch up, Aldo circles around and takes his back. Vera defends himself from a takedown with a no-look elbow, but Aldo drags him down and then hops on like a Brazilian backpack. Vera leans down while trying to shake off Aldo, but the Ecuadorian falls to his knees. Aldo sinks in the body lock as he fishes for a choke, and Vera fights the grip and keeps his neck clear. The former champ confers with his corner as he holds on to Vera’s back, switching arms for the choke but not finding anything. “Chito” grabs the gloves to stop Aldo from getting a choke locked up, until Miragliotta notices and tells Vera to knock it off. Aldo softens him up with a few punches, but Vera powers up to his knees. Aldo is still firmly in back control with a body triangle locked tightly, and Vera bounces Aldo into the cage to try to scrape him off. Vera walks across the cage to take Aldo away from his corner and into Vera’s, and he slams down to get the ex-champ off but Aldo does not loosen up. Aldo sticks to Vera’s back as Vera stands back up again, and he cannot break the grip no matter how hard he tries. Vera signals a thumbs-down to show his displeasure with the position, but the round ends with Aldo on him like a cheap suit. Barring some strange judging antics, Jose Aldo should finally have earned his first win in the bantamweight division, while snapping a lengthy win streak at 135 pounds for Vera.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)
The Official Result
Jose Aldo def. Marlon Vera via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks José Aldo as a guaranteed win, arguing that Marlon Vera's win over Sean O'Malley was a fluke due to O'Malley's ankle injury. He believes Aldo, one of the best strikers of all time, will easily outclass Vera.
Big Brady picks José Aldo over Marlon Vera, arguing that Aldo's level of competition is far superior and that Vera is overhyped. He notes Aldo's 90% takedown defense and believes Vera cannot take him down, forcing a striking match where Aldo has the edge. Brady thinks the fight goes to decision and considers the decision prop a good look, as Vera has never been finished.
The host is extremely confident in Aldo, calling him his strongest play on the card. He believes Aldo's leg kicks, boxing, and body work will overwhelm Vera, who is a slow starter and has never faced anyone of Aldo's level. He notes the line is too close due to recency bias and expects Aldo to win inside the distance.
The Guru picks José Aldo, emphasizing that this is a three-round fight which favors Aldo's cardio. He notes Aldo's close fight with Yan and his wins over Stephens and Moicano. He believes Aldo's leg kicks and experience will be key, and that Vera's win over O'Malley was due to a fluke leg injury. He predicts a competitive 29-28 decision for Aldo.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Yan | 1 | 194 of 309 | 62% | 258 of 376 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 83 of 157 | 52% | 83 of 157 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petr Yan | 0 | 33 of 55 | 60% | 34 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 14 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Petr Yan | 0 | 16 of 42 | 38% | 16 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 24 of 41 | 58% | 24 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Petr Yan | 0 | 39 of 72 | 54% | 39 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 29 of 49 | 59% | 29 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Petr Yan | 0 | 44 of 72 | 61% | 56 of 86 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Petr Yan | 1 | 62 of 68 | 91% | 113 of 120 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:06 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Yan | 194 of 309 | 62% | 150 of 256 | 35 of 44 | 9 of 9 | 99 of 201 | 9 of 11 | 86 of 97 |
| José Aldo | 83 of 157 | 52% | 38 of 97 | 28 of 39 | 17 of 21 | 81 of 154 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petr Yan | 33 of 55 | 60% | 21 of 42 | 10 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 19 |
| José Aldo | 14 of 39 | 35% | 10 of 28 | 1 of 6 | 3 of 5 | 14 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Petr Yan | 16 of 42 | 38% | 11 of 35 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 24 of 41 | 58% | 7 of 22 | 8 of 10 | 9 of 9 | 24 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Petr Yan | 39 of 72 | 54% | 27 of 56 | 10 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 35 of 68 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 29 of 49 | 59% | 13 of 27 | 12 of 16 | 4 of 6 | 27 of 46 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Petr Yan | 44 of 72 | 61% | 32 of 58 | 9 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 28 of 52 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 13 |
| José Aldo | 15 of 27 | 55% | 8 of 20 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Petr Yan | 62 of 68 | 91% | 59 of 65 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 59 of 65 |
| José Aldo | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Petr Yan by fourth-round knockout, citing Yan's volume and youth. He thinks Aldo is live but Yan's pressure and output will overwhelm Aldo late. He is not betting at -245 but believes Yan wins if he doesn't get caught.
Daniel Levi picks Petr Yan, citing his cardio, composure, pressure, and competitive spirit. He believes Yan will push Aldo back, chip away, and potentially finish him in the first three rounds. He notes Aldo's chin deterioration, lack of low kicks, and tendency to gas, while Yan controls the cage and never takes a back step. He expects Yan to become champion.
Aldo looked impressive in his bantamweight debut against Marlon Moraes, showing good cardio and aggression. Yan has flaws in leg kick defense, which Aldo can exploit. Aldo is still sharp and fast at 33, and the line at +181 offers value. Picks Aldo to win by decision, though a late stoppage is possible.
The Guru picks Yan, citing Yan's low volume as a tactic to get reads, and his ability to drop Rivera at the end of rounds. He thinks Aldo's cardio isn't the best in a five-rounder and that Yan could take him down and make him think about the takedown. He also notes that Marlon Moraes was able to take Aldo down, suggesting Aldo's takedown defense may not be as sturdy at bantamweight.
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