UFC 183: Silva vs. Diaz · Jan 31, 2015 · Catchweight (180 lb) · Completed
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Age 44
Height 5' 9"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 34
Height 5' 9"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Tyron Woodley
2.36 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
2.76 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
1.06 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
87.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Kelvin Gastelum
3.67 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
3.53 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
1.01 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Tyron Woodley - Fight History
LOSS vs Vicente Luque
Submission (brabo choke) R1 3:56 · UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou 2 · Mar 27, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vicente Luque 0 18 of 40 45% 21 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Tyron Woodley 0 25 of 33 75% 41 of 49 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vicente Luque 0 18 of 40 45% 21 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Tyron Woodley 0 25 of 33 75% 41 of 49 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vicente Luque 18 of 40 45% 7 of 27 10 of 12 1 of 1 8 of 28 10 of 12 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 25 of 33 75% 15 of 22 10 of 11 0 of 0 16 of 23 9 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vicente Luque 18 of 40 45% 7 of 27 10 of 12 1 of 1 8 of 28 10 of 12 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 25 of 33 75% 15 of 22 10 of 11 0 of 0 16 of 23 9 of 10 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Big Brady picks Vicente Luque to win by decision. He notes Luque's high volume (5.72 significant strikes per minute) compared to Woodley's low output (2.33), and that Woodley has lost 15 rounds in a row. He believes Woodley needs a knockout to win, but Luque has never been knocked out in 26 fights. He also mentions Woodley's age (38) and lack of takedowns since 2015. He is comfortable with Luque winning a volume-based decision.

Luque by decision; Luque in a parlay with Tai Tuivasa from last week
"i like luca here pretty comfortably outside of lu you know woodley being the first one to knock out luke"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Cody picks Luque but is not overly confident due to the price. He notes that Woodley has been completely non-existent in his last three fights, losing every minute of every round. He worries that Woodley might finally let his hands go and catch Luque, who is hittable. However, he believes Luque's volume and technical striking will be enough to win a decision.

Luque by decision +150, fight goes to decision -150
"i ended up taking uh luke by decision plus 150 and fight goes to decision minus 150"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Daniel Levi picks Vicente Luque to knock out Tyron Woodley in the second round. He argues that Woodley has lost 15 straight rounds, is 40 years old, and no longer has the same speed or power. Levi believes Luque's calf kicks and left hook will break Woodley down, and that Woodley's hesitancy and lack of output will be his downfall. He notes that Luque has a 90% finish rate and is in a much better mental and physical condition.

second round knockout, calf kicks
"i think vicente lucay to knock tyron woodley out i'm gonna say second round first with the cav kick beating and then with the left hook or overhand right"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

The host picks Vicente Luque to win by decision. He notes that Woodley has been inactive, reliant on one-punch power, and has poor cardio, while Luque is a durable Muay Thai striker with good pressure and leg kicks. He mentions that Woodley's wrestling has been absent in recent fights and that Luque has never been knocked out in the UFC. He considers Woodley's inside distance prop at +600 as the only way to bet on him, but overall favors Luque's consistent output and pressure.

Woodley inside distance +600 is the only Woodley bet worth considering
"I do like Lukey here I think he wins this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Paul picks Luque, calling Woodley one of the least impressive champions in UFC history. He details Woodley's pattern of low volume and backing up, and notes that Luque throws a lot of volume and has clean striking. He acknowledges the risk of Woodley's power but thinks Luque's pace and pressure will be too much. He is not betting Luque as a top ticket but as a second-line play.

"i'm going to take vincente luke but he's not a top ticket guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

The Guru picks Vicente Luque by unanimous decision, citing Woodley's decline and Luque's advantages. He notes Woodley fights to survive, gasses out, and has lost muscle mass, possibly off PEDs. Luque's training at Sanford MMA gives him a game plan similar to Burns and Covington: clinch work, body kicks, and pressure. He acknowledges Woodley's value as an underdog and his power, but trusts Luque's chin and durability. He predicts a 30-27 decision with Woodley having early moments.

Woodley by KO is a value bet; Luque by decision; odds disrespect Woodley
"i'm gonna go with vicente luke by decision i don't i really you know what i feel like woodley fights nowadays to survive and not to like win"
LOSS vs Colby Covington
TKO (rib injury) R5 1:19 · UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · Sep 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Colby Covington 0 78 of 143 54% 232 of 311 3 of 8 37% 0 0 12:01
Tyron Woodley 0 34 of 83 40% 67 of 116 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Colby Covington 0 13 of 32 40% 36 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:18
Tyron Woodley 0 5 of 22 22% 14 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Colby Covington 0 20 of 43 46% 32 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:19
Tyron Woodley 0 13 of 26 50% 24 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
3 Colby Covington 0 23 of 31 74% 51 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:23
Tyron Woodley 0 12 of 26 46% 23 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
4 Colby Covington 0 18 of 28 64% 104 of 123 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:25
Tyron Woodley 0 3 of 4 75% 5 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Colby Covington 0 4 of 9 44% 9 of 14 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:36
Tyron Woodley 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Colby Covington 78 of 143 54% 47 of 106 22 of 28 9 of 9 43 of 101 19 of 20 16 of 22
Tyron Woodley 34 of 83 40% 14 of 58 15 of 20 5 of 5 26 of 74 8 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Colby Covington 13 of 32 40% 8 of 25 3 of 5 2 of 2 6 of 24 7 of 8 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 5 of 22 22% 1 of 15 3 of 6 1 of 1 4 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Colby Covington 20 of 43 46% 11 of 32 6 of 8 3 of 3 16 of 39 4 of 4 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 13 of 26 50% 7 of 18 4 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Colby Covington 23 of 31 74% 11 of 19 10 of 10 2 of 2 15 of 23 8 of 8 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 12 of 26 46% 6 of 20 6 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 21 5 of 5 0 of 0
4 Colby Covington 18 of 28 64% 17 of 26 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 16 of 22
Tyron Woodley 3 of 4 75% 0 of 1 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Colby Covington 4 of 9 44% 0 of 4 2 of 3 2 of 2 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 1 of 5 20% 0 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Colby Covington

Big Brady picks Colby Covington by decision, believing Woodley is on the decline and Covington will use his wrestling and cardio to grind him out. He notes Covington averages nearly five takedowns per 15 minutes and Woodley's takedown defense may not hold up. He expects Covington to survive Woodley's early power and take over in later rounds.

Covington by decision
"give me colby covington by decision here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Sep 18, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Colby Covington

The host is extremely confident in Colby Covington's pace, cardio, and pressure, believing Tyron Woodley's only path to victory is an early knockout. He notes Woodley's poor gas tank and tendency to fade, while Covington's relentless wrestling and volume will overwhelm him. He predicts a fifth-round stoppage due to accumulated damage, and recommends betting Covington straight up or on round 5 props.

Colby Covington wins by TKO in round 5 +2300; Colby Covington wins by decision (alternative)
"I am super [ __ ] confident in kobe comington here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Colby Covington

The host picks Colby Covington over Tyron Woodley, citing Covington's volume, pressure, pace, and offensive wrestling as the keys to beating Woodley. He notes that Woodley has been beaten by these attributes before (by Usman, Burns, Rory MacDonald, Jake Shields) and that Woodley is 38 and fading. He predicts a fourth-round TKO via unanswered shots as Woodley tires and fails to defend intelligently.

fourth round TKO via unanswered shots
"I think we're gonna see a fourth round tko finish not by concussive damage just by unanswered shots and woodley not really intelligently defending himself."
LOSS vs Gilbert Burns
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–44, 50–44) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns · May 30, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gilbert Burns 0 28 of 64 43% 65 of 101 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:47
Tyron Woodley 0 83 of 138 60% 156 of 211 2 of 8 25% 1 0 7:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gilbert Burns 0 2 of 8 25% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Tyron Woodley 0 25 of 34 73% 29 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:26
2 Gilbert Burns 0 12 of 17 70% 34 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
Tyron Woodley 0 11 of 20 55% 37 of 46 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:09
3 Gilbert Burns 0 4 of 17 23% 4 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyron Woodley 0 19 of 42 45% 19 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Gilbert Burns 0 5 of 8 62% 12 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:09
Tyron Woodley 0 18 of 24 75% 47 of 53 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:55
5 Gilbert Burns 0 5 of 14 35% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:03
Tyron Woodley 0 10 of 18 55% 24 of 32 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gilbert Burns 28 of 64 43% 14 of 44 12 of 17 2 of 3 19 of 55 9 of 9 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 83 of 138 60% 41 of 82 27 of 31 15 of 25 51 of 102 13 of 16 19 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gilbert Burns 2 of 8 25% 0 of 5 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 25 of 34 73% 19 of 26 3 of 3 3 of 5 8 of 15 2 of 3 15 of 16
2 Gilbert Burns 12 of 17 70% 7 of 10 5 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 13 4 of 4 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 11 of 20 55% 3 of 8 6 of 7 2 of 5 5 of 12 4 of 6 2 of 2
3 Gilbert Burns 4 of 17 23% 3 of 14 0 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 19 of 42 45% 6 of 23 7 of 10 6 of 9 19 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Gilbert Burns 5 of 8 62% 0 of 3 4 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 4 4 of 4 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 18 of 24 75% 11 of 17 6 of 6 1 of 1 10 of 16 6 of 6 2 of 2
5 Gilbert Burns 5 of 14 35% 4 of 12 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 10 of 18 55% 2 of 8 5 of 5 3 of 5 9 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tyron Woodley vs. Gilbert Burns

Round 1
We have now reached the main event of the evening, in a pivotal welterweight pairing between ex-champ Woodley (19-4-1, 9-3-1 UFC) and the surging heavy-handed grappler Burns (18-3, 11-3 UFC). Since Woodley last competed, Burns has fought and won four times. This headliner will be officiated by referee Herb Dean, and a respectful glove touch commences the last fight of the night. Burns comes out energized, hopping around and avoiding long punches and a looping left hand from his opponent. Burns starts off with a low kick, and evades a counter left hand. They come together, and Burns nails Woodley with powerful uppercuts and short hooks. Woodley is stunned, and Burns bulldozes him over and puts Woodley down. The Brazilian chases after him and starts unloading furious punches, and steps over into mount while Woodley is still trying to clear his head out. Burns thinks to go for a submission, but opts to drop some left hands down. Woodley’s forehead is cut, and he sits up to put his neck in guillotine choke danger. Woodley calmly lays back down to get free from the threat, and Burns slices an elbow down. Burns remains heavy while trying to find an avenue to deal some damage, and Woodley is holding him tight. Burns postures up to rain down punishment, and Woodley uses that exact moment to burst out and get back to his feet. Burns takes the center of the cage and digs to the body with a kick. The left side of Woodley’s face is covered in blood, but the former champ is not afraid as he tries to throw a big left hand. Burns catches him on the way in with a low kick. Woodley tries to sticks out a left, and Burns fires a low kick that makes Woodley nod in acknowledgement. Burns hits him in the body with a kick, and clips Woodley with a left hand that makes Woodley clap his hands in frustration or to motivate himself. The round ends with a bloodied Woodley blinking his eye out.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 2
With a solid cut on his head that has been patched well, Woodley is amped up and stings Burns with a right hand. Burns shakes it off and comes back to engage, only to get drilled on the side of the head once more with a solid right. Burns kicks low, and Woodley circles around the outside to reset. Burns goes up high with a kick, and Woodley’s offense has paused as he briefly reaches out his left hand to find distance. Burns stays loose on the outside, with kicks and the occasional jab while Woodley only reacts. Burns loads up on a huge right hand, and Woodley dives out of the way to avoid the blow. Burns crashes forward, and unexpectedly hits a double leg takedown -- Woodley’s takedown defense rate is historically high -- to plant Woodley on his back. Woodley tries to walk up the fence, and gets on knee but takes a knee to the torso. Burns tries to wrench him back down, so Woodley fights hands and takes a few stiff punches to get back standing again. Woodley turns around and lifts up a high knee, so Burns returns fire with a similar strike. Burns sneaks in a few short shots, and Woodley is only concerned with getting position back. Woodley grinds him against the fence for the waning seconds of the round, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 3
Woodley begins the third frame with a few jabs to keep Burns off of him, as Burns is advancing aggressively. Woodley is not following his jabs with any strikes, and only uses fakes after sticking his left hand out repeatedly. Burns commits to a low kick, and Woodley counters over the top with a straight right. Burns walks through it as if it never happened, and is hopping towards his opponent while blocking a few punches coming his direction. Burns fires a big right hook and hurts Woodley, but the former champ recovers well and returns fire with a right of his own. Burns drops his hands almost as if to taunt Woodley, and Woodley does not take advantage of it so Burns cracks him again. Woodley throws a big looping hook that lands on the shoulder, and Burns gives him a smirk. Burns aims for the body with a kick and a long jab, and the single strikes for the Brazilian are picking away at his adversary. Burns jumps forward with a kick and falls over, but “The Chosen One” perhaps wisely does not follow him down to the ground. Burns throws a left straight followed by a huge right hook, and Burns barely avoided it. “Durinho” tags the leg with a kick, and Woodley puts on a brave face but that kick did some damage. Burns is keeping Woodley with his back against the fence and he does not throw much offense going backwards. Burns digs to the body with another kick, and he ducks away while Woodley slings a right towards him. Burns works a few more low kicks, and Woodley is practically standing in front of him waiting to get too close so he can counter with a thudding right. Burns does not fall for the trap, and lands one last kick low to conclude the round. The Brazilian is so fired up that he is likely winning the fight that security practically drags him back to his corner after the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 4
The tentative nature of Woodley continues in the fourth, as Burns lands a left hook on him while not getting countered. Woodley ducks down to try to take the fight down, and Burns holds him up but gets shoved to the fence. After some grueling clinch work, Burns turns him around and lands a few knees and an “old school” foot stomp. Dean separates the two after some inaction, and Woodley celebrates the break with a big right hand that is blocked. Burns comes back firing, and lands a few sharp jabs that make Woodley clap again. A kick from Burns is caught, and Woodley tries to run the pipe and get him down but Burns hops away out of danger. Burns advances forward to get Woodley to bite on feints and fakes, and connects with a blistering right hook that nearly puts Woodley down. A follow-up right from “Durinho” lands on the side of the former champ’s head, and Woodley pursues a desperation takedown that is fruitless. After a clinch exchange, Burns is the one that pulls his man down again. Woodley is stuck on his back, while Burns gets in half guard and drops down some short punches. Burns steps over into mount and rolls into a potential choke, allowing Woodley to roll free and nearly end up on top. Burns pushes away, and when the round ends, we can see there is a massive cut on Woodley’s eyebrow.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 5
Burns opens up with a kick, and Woodley counters with an overhand left that sends Burns off-balance. Burns shoots in low for a double, and transitions to a single as Woodley sprawls against the fence to defend it. Burns leans heavily to drain precious seconds off the clock, and Woodley tries with all his might to spin out but is stuck. Woodley manages to finally turn his man around, but the minor victory lasts about five seconds before Burns regains position. The Brazilian tries to tie up the legs and hit a trip, but Woodley is wise to it and spins him around again. Burns signals to Dean that Woodley is not doing anything with the position, and Dean calls for the two to work. Burns punches around the back of Woodley’s head until they break. Burns marches forward with two left hands, and scores a leg kick. Woodley unleashes a ferocious counter right, and Burns ducks it and smiles. Woodley catches him on the way in with a left, and Burns is caught upright but eats it like a sandwich. “Durinho” lands a body kick as he pecks away while time is just streaming off the clock. Less than 90 seconds remain and Woodley is still with his back to the cage, not throwing much. They tie up, and Woodley presses on him while Burns once again protests. Even though he is almost certainly up on every round, Burns is the fighter that wants to continue throwing leather. Burns fires body kicks and looping right hands, and he still wants a finish even though he could easily cruise to victory. Woodley lands a counter left along with a right that gets blocked, and the horn sounds to end a fight that is totally one-way traffic. We have a new title contender at welterweight, ladies and gentlemen. See you next week!

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns (50-44 Burns)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns (50-44 Burns)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns (50-45 Burns)

The Official Result
Gilbert Burns def. Tyron Woodley via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-44, 50-44)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 27, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Tyron Woodley

Big Brady picks Tyron Woodley to win by knockout in the second round. He believes Woodley's takedown defense is elite and that Burns will not be able to take him down. He thinks Burns will come in overconfident and get caught by a hard shot from Woodley, who hits very hard. However, he notes that Woodley's mental state is a question mark and that Burns could win a close decision if he outworks Woodley, but he ultimately favors Woodley's power and experience.

Woodley by KO in round 2; not touching from a betting perspective due to mental question marks
"I'm going to go with Woodley I'm going to pick Woodley to win by knockout and in the second round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked May 29, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Tyron Woodley

Daniel leans slightly towards Woodley, believing that at his best he is the better fighter. He acknowledges Woodley's mental fragility and poor performance against Usman, but thinks Woodley's wrestling and power give him a clear path to victory. He notes that Burns has improved but is still hittable and may struggle with Woodley's strength. Daniel calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and is not fully confident.

dog or pass situation
"i'm gonna slightly lean towards the former champion woodley because i think at his best that he's a better fighter than gilbert dorino"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 23, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Tyron Woodley

The MMA Guru picks Tyron Woodley to win by TKO in the second round. He believes Woodley will be patient, let Burns win the first round, then catch him with a counter shot when Burns gets overconfident and tired. He notes that Burns is on short notice and had close fights with Gunnar Nelson and Alexey Kunchenko, and that his win over Demian Maia is not impressive because Maia was looking for a fight with Diego Sanchez. He acknowledges Woodley's annoying style but respects his skill.

Woodley by TKO in round 2
"I'm going with tyron woodley here I think he's gonna get the job done in the second round by TKO"
LOSS vs Kamaru Usman
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–44, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · Mar 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kamaru Usman 0 34 of 51 66% 60 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Tyron Woodley 0 141 of 194 72% 336 of 390 2 of 6 33% 0 0 18:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kamaru Usman 0 8 of 11 72% 19 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Tyron Woodley 0 22 of 32 68% 68 of 78 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:53
2 Kamaru Usman 0 1 of 3 33% 5 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyron Woodley 0 21 of 29 72% 74 of 82 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:23
3 Kamaru Usman 0 14 of 19 73% 22 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyron Woodley 0 45 of 59 76% 78 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:51
4 Kamaru Usman 0 10 of 16 62% 13 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyron Woodley 0 38 of 58 65% 55 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:26
5 Kamaru Usman 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyron Woodley 0 15 of 16 93% 61 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kamaru Usman 34 of 51 66% 12 of 28 18 of 19 4 of 4 10 of 24 24 of 27 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 141 of 194 72% 56 of 104 83 of 87 2 of 3 27 of 73 78 of 82 36 of 39
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kamaru Usman 8 of 11 72% 2 of 5 6 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 5 6 of 6 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 22 of 32 68% 5 of 14 16 of 17 1 of 1 4 of 14 16 of 16 2 of 2
2 Kamaru Usman 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 21 of 29 72% 16 of 23 5 of 5 0 of 1 3 of 8 7 of 7 11 of 14
3 Kamaru Usman 14 of 19 73% 1 of 5 11 of 12 2 of 2 2 of 6 12 of 13 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 45 of 59 76% 2 of 15 43 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 13 45 of 46 0 of 0
4 Kamaru Usman 10 of 16 62% 8 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 8 6 of 8 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 38 of 58 65% 28 of 47 9 of 10 1 of 1 19 of 36 10 of 13 9 of 9
5 Kamaru Usman 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 15 of 16 93% 5 of 5 10 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 14 of 14
WIN vs Darren Till
Submission (brabo choke) R2 4:19 · UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · Sep 08, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyron Woodley 1 57 of 79 72% 74 of 97 0 of 4 0% 1 0 5:29
Darren Till 0 0 of 6 0% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyron Woodley 0 11 of 23 47% 16 of 28 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:23
Darren Till 0 0 of 3 0% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
2 Tyron Woodley 1 46 of 56 82% 58 of 69 0 of 0 --- 1 0 4:06
Darren Till 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyron Woodley 57 of 79 72% 47 of 67 7 of 9 3 of 3 7 of 19 5 of 6 45 of 54
Darren Till 0 of 6 0% 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyron Woodley 11 of 23 47% 3 of 13 5 of 7 3 of 3 6 of 17 5 of 6 0 of 0
Darren Till 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tyron Woodley 46 of 56 82% 44 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 45 of 54
Darren Till 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Demian Maia
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · Jul 29, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyron Woodley 1 57 of 153 37% 57 of 153 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Demian Maia 0 28 of 89 31% 29 of 90 0 of 21 0% 0 0 0:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyron Woodley 0 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:38
2 Tyron Woodley 1 14 of 29 48% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Demian Maia 0 4 of 14 28% 4 of 14 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Tyron Woodley 0 12 of 41 29% 12 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 8 of 24 33% 8 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Tyron Woodley 0 15 of 39 38% 15 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Demian Maia 0 5 of 25 20% 5 of 25 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:11
5 Tyron Woodley 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Demian Maia 0 8 of 20 40% 9 of 21 0 of 7 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyron Woodley 57 of 153 37% 40 of 131 13 of 18 4 of 4 56 of 152 1 of 1 0 of 0
Demian Maia 28 of 89 31% 23 of 83 2 of 3 3 of 3 26 of 87 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyron Woodley 6 of 18 33% 5 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tyron Woodley 14 of 29 48% 9 of 24 3 of 3 2 of 2 14 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 4 of 14 28% 4 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Tyron Woodley 12 of 41 29% 9 of 37 1 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 8 of 24 33% 6 of 22 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Tyron Woodley 15 of 39 38% 11 of 32 4 of 7 0 of 0 15 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 5 of 25 20% 4 of 23 0 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Tyron Woodley 10 of 26 38% 6 of 22 4 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Demian Maia 8 of 20 40% 6 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
Decision (majority) (48–47, 47–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · Mar 04, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyron Woodley 1 54 of 125 43% 70 of 141 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:58
Stephen Thompson 0 53 of 146 36% 66 of 159 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyron Woodley 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 6 of 19 31% 6 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tyron Woodley 0 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 8 of 24 33% 8 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Tyron Woodley 0 15 of 28 53% 30 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:48
Stephen Thompson 0 14 of 28 50% 27 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
4 Tyron Woodley 0 9 of 22 40% 9 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 12 of 34 35% 12 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Tyron Woodley 1 17 of 47 36% 18 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Stephen Thompson 0 13 of 41 31% 13 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyron Woodley 54 of 125 43% 28 of 89 20 of 30 6 of 6 30 of 92 5 of 12 19 of 21
Stephen Thompson 53 of 146 36% 30 of 115 17 of 24 6 of 7 52 of 144 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyron Woodley 5 of 12 41% 0 of 5 1 of 3 4 of 4 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 6 of 19 31% 4 of 15 1 of 2 1 of 2 6 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tyron Woodley 8 of 16 50% 3 of 9 3 of 5 2 of 2 8 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 8 of 24 33% 4 of 19 3 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Tyron Woodley 15 of 28 53% 8 of 20 7 of 8 0 of 0 2 of 14 1 of 2 12 of 12
Stephen Thompson 14 of 28 50% 4 of 18 9 of 9 1 of 1 13 of 26 1 of 2 0 of 0
4 Tyron Woodley 9 of 22 40% 1 of 12 8 of 10 0 of 0 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 12 of 34 35% 10 of 29 1 of 4 1 of 1 12 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Tyron Woodley 17 of 47 36% 16 of 43 1 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 28 4 of 10 7 of 9
Stephen Thompson 13 of 41 31% 8 of 34 3 of 5 2 of 2 13 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Draw (majority) (47–47, 47–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor · Nov 12, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyron Woodley 1 61 of 141 43% 113 of 200 1 of 1 100% 2 0 4:51
Stephen Thompson 0 43 of 161 26% 60 of 181 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyron Woodley 0 14 of 18 77% 45 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:57
Stephen Thompson 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tyron Woodley 0 4 of 22 18% 14 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:08
Stephen Thompson 0 6 of 31 19% 7 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
3 Tyron Woodley 0 8 of 32 25% 8 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 10 of 47 21% 10 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Tyron Woodley 1 27 of 41 65% 38 of 53 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:46
Stephen Thompson 0 5 of 19 26% 21 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:25
5 Tyron Woodley 0 8 of 28 28% 8 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 21 of 60 35% 21 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyron Woodley 61 of 141 43% 42 of 111 13 of 21 6 of 9 23 of 93 13 of 18 25 of 30
Stephen Thompson 43 of 161 26% 26 of 125 11 of 28 6 of 8 42 of 152 0 of 1 1 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyron Woodley 14 of 18 77% 8 of 12 6 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 14 of 17
Stephen Thompson 1 of 4 25% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tyron Woodley 4 of 22 18% 0 of 12 3 of 7 1 of 3 2 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 6 of 31 19% 4 of 25 2 of 6 0 of 0 6 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Tyron Woodley 8 of 32 25% 6 of 29 0 of 0 2 of 3 8 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 10 of 47 21% 5 of 37 3 of 7 2 of 3 10 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Tyron Woodley 27 of 41 65% 24 of 36 3 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 13 11 of 15 11 of 13
Stephen Thompson 5 of 19 26% 4 of 14 0 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 8
5 Tyron Woodley 8 of 28 28% 4 of 22 1 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 21 of 60 35% 13 of 47 6 of 11 2 of 2 21 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum - Fight History
LOSS vs Vicente Luque
Submission R1 4:08 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 0 9 of 20 45% 12 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Vicente Luque 1 12 of 28 42% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 9 of 20 45% 12 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Vicente Luque 1 12 of 28 42% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 9 of 20 45% 4 of 14 4 of 5 1 of 1 8 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 1
Vicente Luque 12 of 28 42% 6 of 19 1 of 1 5 of 8 8 of 21 0 of 0 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 9 of 20 45% 4 of 14 4 of 5 1 of 1 8 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 1
Vicente Luque 12 of 28 42% 6 of 19 1 of 1 5 of 8 8 of 21 0 of 0 4 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Angelo picks Kelvin Gastelum despite his unreliability, citing his skills, granite chin, and wrestling advantage. He believes Vicente Luque has never been the same since the brain bleed and is fighting up a weight class. He acknowledges Gastelum's poor work ethic but thinks he should win, calling the odds appropriate.

"I have to pick Kelvin here. If you refuse to bet on him, I get it. No pressure. He should win, and honestly, I think these odds are actually pretty appropriate."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Big Brady believes Vicente Luque is past his prime after a brain injury and has shown fear of getting hit, pulling guard and covering up in recent fights. He thinks Gastelum will land big shots and TKO Luque, predicting a second-round knockout. He calls it his hot take of the week.

second round knockout
"My hot take of the week is Kelvin Gastelum gets his first knockout since 2017 against Vicente Luque... I think he knocks out Vicente Luque in the second round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Cody also picks Gastelum, citing Luque's loss of speed and durability. He thinks Gastelum's left hand and toughness will be too much for the fading Luque.

"I think Gaston wins it... either he's going to get knocked out and separated from consciousness or just be one punch behind the punch stats every round and end up losing a tight decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Connor picks Gastelum because Luque is moving up to middleweight and has lost speed, while Gastelum's game is built for the division. He notes that Gastelum's durability and power in the pocket will be too much for a slower Luque, and that Luque's style doesn't translate well to middleweight. He acknowledges both are past their prime but trusts Gastelum's natural advantages.

"We got to pick Gasolim."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Daniel Vreeland picks Kelvin Gastelum, citing Luque's decline after a brain bleed and brutal knockouts. He believes Gastelum's durability and power will be too much for Luque, who may not have the confidence or chin to engage in a war. He also notes that the fight is at middleweight, which benefits Gastelum.

"I got Kelvin as well. One last thing here is this fight's at 185 and not 170. So, Luque I think that benefits Kelvin significantly here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Daniel thinks Luque's chin and confidence are gone after taking too much damage, while Gastelum is still durable. He predicts Gastelum will knock out Luque.

"I'm going to pick Kelvin Gastlam to come out here and knock out Vasante Luca."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

James picks Gastelum confidently, believing Luque is more shot and that Gastelum's durability and boxing will prevail. He predicts a knockout, noting Luque's recent struggles.

"I've got Kelvin Gasselum here quite confidently. Honestly, I think he's going to win this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum's power and durability should be too much for Luque, who has been declining and getting finished. Luque's wars have caught up to him, and he struggles with pressure. Gastelum's boxing and knockout power can put Luque away. However, Gastelum's weight cut is a concern; if he makes weight, he should win by knockout. The line is steep but justified.

Gastelum wins by knockout
"I think we'll see Gastam eventually land those big shots. ... I think he wins by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Paul picks Gastelum, trusting his chin and durability. He thinks Luque has slowed down and taken too much damage, while Gastelum can still take a punch and outwork him.

"I still trust Kelvin Gastelum. It's like if they get into a firefight to be able to take that punch... Kelvin's one of the guys that are uh in my parlay arsenal this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum over Vicente Luque. He believes Luque's best days are behind him and that Gastelum is hard to finish, with good submission defense against Luque's D'Arce choke. He thinks Gastelum's springy step, one-two down the pipe, and low kick will cause visible damage, predicting a 29-28 decision win.

"I'm going to go with Kelvin over Vicente Luque."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Zane picks Gastelum, agreeing that Luque at middleweight doesn't track. He notes that Gastelum's game is a middleweight game and that Luque has lost speed and reaction time. He expects Gastelum to win by being the more natural middleweight and having the power advantage in the pocket.

"I'm not going to pick Vicente Luque up at middle weight."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 1 57 of 117 48% 58 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 64 of 146 43% 69 of 151 1 of 6 16% 0 1 2:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 14 of 25 56% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 24 of 49 48% 25 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
2 Kelvin Gastelum 1 23 of 43 53% 23 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 20 of 45 44% 24 of 49 0 of 3 0% 0 1 1:13
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 20 of 49 40% 20 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 20 of 52 38% 20 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 57 of 117 48% 30 of 81 16 of 24 11 of 12 56 of 116 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 64 of 146 43% 25 of 93 25 of 34 14 of 19 55 of 134 4 of 5 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 14 of 25 56% 4 of 14 6 of 7 4 of 4 14 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 24 of 49 48% 3 of 23 13 of 17 8 of 9 20 of 44 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Kelvin Gastelum 23 of 43 53% 14 of 30 6 of 9 3 of 4 23 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 20 of 45 44% 12 of 35 4 of 5 4 of 5 15 of 38 0 of 0 5 of 7
3 Kelvin Gastelum 20 of 49 40% 12 of 37 4 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 20 of 52 38% 10 of 35 8 of 12 2 of 5 20 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Angelo picks Kelvin Gastelum, calling him a great wrestler and striker with an unbelievable chin, but wasted talent due to poor work ethic. He says this is the easiest matchup Kelvin has had in five years, and he should win the striking exchanges and eat whatever comes back. He notes concern about Kelvin's takedown defense after the Sean Brady fight, but thinks he should be a better wrestler than Stoltzfus. He says the line should be wider but isn't because people can't trust Kelvin.

The line is honestly should be wider and it just isn't because people can't trust him.
"I do think that Kelvin is going to win here, so he's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Big Brady picks Gastelum as the better striker who should keep the fight standing. He notes Stoltzfus is not on Gastelum's level and that a loss would be Gastelum's worst. He predicts a decision win but says he won't bet on it.

Decision win; will not bet
"Gastelum by decision for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Connor picks Gastelum hesitantly, noting that Stoltzfus is glacially slow and has been knocked out multiple times. However, he warns that Gastelum could have a Punahele Soriano-like performance where he fails to impose himself and gets outworked. Connor believes Gastelum's athleticism and scrambling will be key, but he is not confident.

"I'm taking Gastelum, but I can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Despite Gastelum's inconsistency, the host sees this as a fight he should win. He expects Gastelum to showcase his takedown defense and pressure with power striking, leading to a knockout in the second or third round.

win by knockout in second or third round
"Look for him to uh really do a good job with his takedown defense and really put the pressure on with the power striking. And I think that will eventually lead to a Calvin Gassam knockout either in the second …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum, believing he has a clear advantage in technical ability and power. He notes Stoltzfus has been knocked out multiple times and lacks the tools to drop or ragdoll Gastelum. He predicts a TKO win in the middle of the fight, possibly late first or second round, as Gastelum pressures and finishes a tiring Stoltzfus.

TKO win late first or second round
"Kelvin Gastelum getting this one done. ... This is a free TKO win late in the first round, in the second round at some point."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Zane picks Gastelum hesitantly, acknowledging that Stoltzfus could replicate his win over Punahele Soriano by pressuring and outworking Gastelum. He notes that Gastelum is still athletic and durable but has shown a tendency to not consider bad positions. Zane believes Gastelum's scrambling ability and power will be enough, but he can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight.

"I suppose I'm still gonna pick Kelvin Gastelum here. But I can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight."
LOSS vs Joe Pyfer
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 0 33 of 99 33% 34 of 100 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Joe Pyfer 2 57 of 114 50% 58 of 115 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 8 of 20 40% 8 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 2 21 of 39 53% 22 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
2 Kelvin Gastelum 0 11 of 50 22% 11 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 0 17 of 40 42% 17 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 14 of 29 48% 15 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Joe Pyfer 0 19 of 35 54% 19 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 33 of 99 33% 13 of 69 11 of 17 9 of 13 32 of 98 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 57 of 114 50% 44 of 99 12 of 14 1 of 1 51 of 104 3 of 3 3 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 8 of 20 40% 3 of 14 2 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 21 of 39 53% 16 of 33 5 of 6 0 of 0 17 of 31 1 of 1 3 of 7
2 Kelvin Gastelum 11 of 50 22% 2 of 34 6 of 10 3 of 6 11 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 17 of 40 42% 12 of 35 4 of 4 1 of 1 17 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Kelvin Gastelum 14 of 29 48% 8 of 21 3 of 4 3 of 4 13 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 19 of 35 54% 16 of 31 3 of 4 0 of 0 17 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Angelo picks Joe Pyfer because Kelvin Gastelum is unreliable with poor work ethic and weight issues. He notes Kelvin has a granite chin and power, but Joe is a powerful striker with slick BJJ. He warns Joe not to get frustrated if the knockout doesn't come quickly. He thinks the 4-to-1 odds are fair but not a cakewalk.

"Joe Piper should win this fight. As long as Joe is not expecting a quick knockout and then getting frustrated when he doesn't get it, Joe should win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Big Brady likes Joe Pyfer more now that the fight is at sea level instead of Mexico City. He believes Pyfer can win by any method: knockout, submission, or decision. He notes Pyfer's size, power, and black belt in jiu-jitsu, and that Gastelum has been submitted before. He thinks a decision is most likely due to Gastelum's durability, but sees Pyfer as the better fighter overall.

Pyfer by decision most likely
"I like Piper here quite a bit. Kelvin Gastlam is going to be very undersized."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Pyfer. He emphasizes that Gastelum's best wins are against smaller or older opponents, and Pyfer's size and power pose a serious threat. Connor notes that Gastelum's defensive flaws and reliance on his chin make him vulnerable, especially at middleweight where he is not as big.

Odds: Pyfer -383, Gastelum +324. Connor thinks the line is reasonable.
"I think in that context, you really have to pick Pfeiffer here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum can deal with Pyfer's power and then get to his own striking game, blitzing the pocket and landing big shots, possibly mixing in takedowns. His durability, cardio, and strength of schedule will allow him to get the victory over the younger Pyfer.

"I like me some Gastam in this spot as I think he can deal with the big power that Piper brings to the table and then from there he can get to his own striking game where he does a …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

The MMA Guru picks Joe Pyfer by submission in the first round. He notes Pyfer's muscle advantage and underrated grappling, citing his training with Sean Brady and his submission wins. He believes Pyfer will land big shots early, then take Gastelum down and submit him with an arm triangle. He mentions Gastelum's granite chin but thinks Pyfer can finish him.

Finish prediction: first round submission (arm triangle). Also mentioned in PrizePicks: Pyfer lands under 49.5 significant strikes.
"I'm going to take Joe Pyer by submission in the first round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Zane picks Joe Pyfer, noting that Gastelum is inconsistent and relies on his chin, which may be fading. He points out that Pyfer is bigger, hits harder, and has a cleaner striking game. Zane references the Hermanson fight where Pyfer won the first two rounds before fading, and believes in a three-round fight Pyfer's early power will carry him.

Odds: Pyfer -383, Gastelum +324. Zane thinks the line is too wide but still picks Pyfer.
"I'm going to take the bigger, harder, cleaner puncture."
CANCEL vs Joe Pyfer
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

James picks Kelvin Gastelum as a significant underdog, arguing that Joe Pyfer has not proven himself against top competition and that his wins are over faded or lower-level fighters. He notes Gastelum has fought much better opposition, has better cardio, and has been training at elevation in Mexico for a month, including in the mountains. James believes Pyfer's gas tank is suspect and that Gastelum can survive early danger and win in later rounds. He sees value at plus 260 odds.

Value on Gastelum at plus 260. Mentions Pyfer's size and early power but questions his cardio and level of competition.
"I think there's value on Kelvin gum here because it's still a show me spot for Joe Piper he has to show me that he's worthy of a minus 320 price tag."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Jun 22, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 0 112 of 238 47% 123 of 250 4 of 4 100% 0 0 2:47
Daniel Rodriguez 0 127 of 265 47% 132 of 273 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 44 of 93 47% 45 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Daniel Rodriguez 0 46 of 91 50% 46 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kelvin Gastelum 0 37 of 86 43% 39 of 88 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:25
Daniel Rodriguez 0 53 of 113 46% 53 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 31 of 59 52% 39 of 68 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:17
Daniel Rodriguez 0 28 of 61 45% 33 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 112 of 238 47% 77 of 193 14 of 20 21 of 25 105 of 226 0 of 0 7 of 12
Daniel Rodriguez 127 of 265 47% 82 of 214 36 of 41 9 of 10 127 of 265 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 44 of 93 47% 27 of 70 6 of 10 11 of 13 44 of 93 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Rodriguez 46 of 91 50% 25 of 67 15 of 17 6 of 7 46 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kelvin Gastelum 37 of 86 43% 27 of 72 4 of 6 6 of 8 37 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Rodriguez 53 of 113 46% 38 of 97 13 of 14 2 of 2 53 of 113 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Kelvin Gastelum 31 of 59 52% 23 of 51 4 of 4 4 of 4 24 of 47 0 of 0 7 of 12
Daniel Rodriguez 28 of 61 45% 19 of 50 8 of 10 1 of 1 28 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Angelo picks Kelvin but is hesitant, calling him a waste of talent. He acknowledges Kelvin's raw talent, chin, and wrestling, but notes he is undedicated and has missed weight. He points to Kelvin's last fight where he was outwrestled by Sean Brady despite being a D1 wrestler. He thinks Kelvin should win but cannot trust him, especially at -260. He will not bet on Kelvin.

No bet; odds too high for an unreliable fighter
"Kelvin gastam is a giant waste of talent but Talent is the key word he is very good... I'm still going to lean Kelvin I'm going to trust him but I'm not spending you can't spend money on this guy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Big Brady picks Kelvin Gastelum confidently, believing Daniel Rodriguez is on the decline due to fight miles and prison fights. He notes Gastelum's wrestling as a potential path and expects a decision win. Despite the steep -250 line, Brady thinks it makes sense if Rodriguez is truly fading.

"give me Kelvin gastam by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Cody picks Gastelum, emphasizing his southpaw advantage and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Rodriguez's volume striking but believes Gastelum's power and pressure will be decisive, especially given Rodriguez's recent layoff and age. He expects a decision win.

"gum is going to win he is going to likely win a decision"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Daniel Vreeland picks Daniel Rodriguez as a confident underdog. He notes Gastelum's tendency to be in close fights and his lack of discipline (weight issues, love for tacos). He believes Rodriguez has the size, reach, and volume to push a pace and win a decision. He also mentions Gastelum's wrestling advantage but doubts he will use it.

"I'm gonna go with the plus 200 dog here I'm gonna go with D Rod to to win a probably a decision against uh Kelvin Gaston"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Jacob picks Kelvin but is not confident, calling the -250/-260 odds crazy. He thinks Kelvin should be around -125 to -130. He notes Kelvin's last fight showed he forgot how to wrestle, and he might just stand and trade with Rodriguez, which could be competitive. He might have some action on Rodriguez as a dog. He believes Kelvin is the pick but not a betting favorite at those odds.

Might bet Rodriguez as a dog
"minus 250 minus 260 for a guy like Kelvin gastam at this point it's like what are we doing... I believe El Kelvin should be the favorite I would price it likeus 125 minus 130 something like that"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

JP hesitantly picks Rodriguez by decision, citing his reach advantage and ability to keep Gastelum stalled. He worries about Gastelum's speed but lacks trust in Gastelum's recent performances. Brevan disagrees, picking Gastelum by decision, citing Gastelum's wrestling advantage and ability to score takedowns in later rounds. Brevan finds the fight dangerous from a betting perspective but leans Gastelum. JP is less confident and may avoid betting.

Fight goes to decision
"I think I'm going to go with Rodriguez by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Paul picks Gastelum but with hesitation, hoping he uses his wrestling. He notes that if it becomes a striking match, it could be close. Paul points to Gastelum's low output and Rodriguez's volume as potential issues, but believes Gastelum's overall skills should prevail.

"Gastelum will be the pick but I hope he wrestles"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum over Daniel Rodriguez, citing Gastelum's superior boxing and underrated ground game. He notes that Rodriguez's striking looked lousy against Neil Magny and that his wins are over lower-level opponents. He believes Gastelum can mix in grappling and that Rodriguez's age (37) and layoff are factors. He expresses frustration that Gastelum is a favorite, as he wanted an underdog pick, but still goes with Gastelum by decision or submission.

by decision, maybe a rear naked choke
"I'm going to go Kelvin Gastelum here is he an underdog I wonder if he's an underdog here he might be I'd like it if he was he's a [__] favorite [__] off why is he a big favorite man."
LOSS vs Sean Brady
Submission (kimura) R3 1:43 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Brady 0 14 of 24 58% 97 of 130 5 of 5 100% 3 0 9:06
Kelvin Gastelum 0 18 of 32 56% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Brady 0 5 of 10 50% 38 of 53 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:22
Kelvin Gastelum 0 13 of 21 61% 16 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:19
2 Sean Brady 0 8 of 11 72% 51 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:31
Kelvin Gastelum 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sean Brady 0 1 of 3 33% 8 of 11 1 of 1 100% 3 0 1:13
Kelvin Gastelum 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Brady 14 of 24 58% 8 of 16 1 of 2 5 of 6 7 of 15 1 of 1 6 of 8
Kelvin Gastelum 18 of 32 56% 7 of 19 7 of 8 4 of 5 13 of 23 4 of 5 1 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Brady 5 of 10 50% 3 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1
Kelvin Gastelum 13 of 21 61% 6 of 14 5 of 5 2 of 2 8 of 12 4 of 5 1 of 4
2 Sean Brady 8 of 11 72% 5 of 8 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 7
Kelvin Gastelum 2 of 6 33% 0 of 2 0 of 1 2 of 3 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sean Brady 1 of 3 33% 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 3 of 5 60% 1 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sean Brady vs. Kelvin Gastelum
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brady (-130), Gastelum (+110)

Round 1
Welterweights get the call, as Brady (15-1, 5-1 UFC) looks to rebound from his first career loss in a three-round showdown with Gastelum at 170 pounds. Gastelum (18-8, 12-8 UFC) has lost five of his past seven bouts and remains one of the most enigmatic fighters on the roster.
For more on the Kings MMA rep, see “5 Defining Moments: Kelvin Gastelum” in Features
. Montalvo draws the officiating assignment. Gastelum immediately moves to the center of the cage. Brady clinches, works punches and knees to the body and eats a short elbow. He pushes Gastelum to the fence and completes his first takedown. The Daniel Gracie disciple floats to the back, threads his hooks and goes to work on the next. Brady bites down with a body triangle just 90 seconds into the bout. Gastelum scrambles free, takes top position and feeds his opponent punches. Back on the feet, they return to the center of the Octagon. Gastelum sneaks in a right hand. Brady connects with two left hooks and then powers into top position, moving to the back. Gastelum inches toward the fence, but Brady is relentless. Gastelum gets back to his feet, only to get returned to the mat. Brady works his ground-and-pound from behind, then moves to the back in the waning seconds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady

Round 2
Gastelum steps forward in his southpaw stance, fires a few inside leg kicks and fails to manage distance properly. Brady ducks in for another takedown and sets up in half guard. Starting to look like an awful stylistic matchup for Gastelum. Brady climbs to full mount, then back to half guard. He mounts again. Gastelum surrenders his back to create a scramble but finds no escape. Brady shifts back to mount. Probably only a matter of time before Gastelum breaks. Brady hammers away with elbows, floats to the back and shows no regard for his counterpart’s ground game. Fans grow restless, but Brady is running circles around Gastelum here. Brady works from a kneeling mount, with a seated Gastelum underneath him. With 30 seconds left, this has turned into an absolute rout. Brady drags him back to the canvas as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady

Round 3
Brady works from the center of the cage. Gastelum sneaks in a straight left, but Brady closes the distance yet again and completes another takedown. Fans boo. Brady sets up in half guard, then floats to mount and frames an arm-triangle. Gastelum escapes.
Brady now isolates the right arm and threatens a kimura. He cranks on the shoulder and forces the tap. This one was never competitive
.

The Official Result
Sean Brady def. Kelvin Gastelum—Submission (Kimura) 1:43 R3
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Big Brady picks Sean Brady to get back on track, believing his wrestling and control will be the difference. He thinks Brady can take down and control Gastelum for at least two rounds, winning a decision. He acknowledges Gastelum has the edge on the feet but thinks Brady can hold his own. He calls it a close fight and wouldn't bet on either side.

"I'm going to take Shawn Brady to get back on track here I think this is a good fight to do it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Cody picks Brady, citing his superior jiu-jitsu and wrestling. He notes Gastelum's poor takedown defense and offensive wrestling (0 for 11 in last two fights). He thinks Brady can take Gastelum down and control him on the ground. He also questions Gastelum's speed at welterweight and his ability to handle Brady's grappling.

"I think that Shawn Brady's one of the best uh pure Jiu-Jitsu guys in the division now can he tie the other skills together maybe maybe not but yeah I I think that if this fight hits the ground he's …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Lucrative James leans towards Kelvin Gastelum after rewatching tape. He notes that Sean Brady has shown poor striking defense and cardio issues in fights against Belal Muhammad and Michael Chiesa. Gastelum is a good boxer and could hurt Brady. However, he remains cautious about Gastelum's weight cut and how he will look at 170.

"I'm leaning more on the Kelvin gastam side as the the week goes along"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum is moving back to welterweight, where he has looked best, and has shown improved conditioning and training at Fight Ready. He has slick boxing, power, and underrated grappling. Brady is a strong wrestler with a BJJ black belt, but he struggled against Belal Muhammad's range and volume. Gastelum's speed and power on the feet, plus his ability to scramble, should give him the edge. A decision win is predicted, with a potential late finish.

decision win predicted
"I like gastam here as the dog like I think that he is far more skilled all around than Brady"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Paul is willing to side with Gastelum at welterweight, citing his striking advantage and improved physique. He will wait for weigh-ins to ensure Gastelum makes weight and looks healthy. He thinks Gastelum has a massive striking advantage and that this is a good spot to jump back on the Gastelum train.

"I'm willing to side with Gastelum at 170 I'm going to wait until the weigh-ins to ensure that like you know that he makes it and doesn't look like Skeletor"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum, criticizing Sean Brady's performance against Belal Muhammad where he shut down after being clipped. He believes Gastelum's boxing, durability, and finishing ability are superior on the feet. He predicts Gastelum wins by TKO in the second or third round.

TKO in second or third round
"I'm gonna go with Kelvin Gastelum over Shawn Brady... I think if this is on the feet I just like the boxing durability toughness and finishing ability of Kelvin Gastelum."
WIN vs Chris Curtis
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 0 70 of 201 34% 80 of 216 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Chris Curtis 0 83 of 188 44% 88 of 195 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 13 of 48 27% 13 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 30 of 64 46% 30 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kelvin Gastelum 0 20 of 65 30% 26 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 23 of 56 41% 27 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:55
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 37 of 88 42% 41 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Chris Curtis 0 30 of 68 44% 31 of 69 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 70 of 201 34% 44 of 164 21 of 30 5 of 7 63 of 193 7 of 8 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 83 of 188 44% 63 of 161 5 of 8 15 of 19 76 of 172 3 of 6 4 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 13 of 48 27% 8 of 40 1 of 2 4 of 6 13 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 30 of 64 46% 20 of 51 0 of 0 10 of 13 30 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kelvin Gastelum 20 of 65 30% 11 of 51 9 of 14 0 of 0 18 of 62 2 of 3 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 23 of 56 41% 20 of 51 1 of 2 2 of 3 19 of 44 0 of 2 4 of 10
3 Kelvin Gastelum 37 of 88 42% 25 of 73 11 of 14 1 of 1 32 of 83 5 of 5 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 30 of 68 44% 23 of 59 4 of 6 3 of 3 27 of 64 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Angelo picks Chris Curtis and has a moneyline bet on him. He notes that Kelvin Gastelum is a waste of talent with poor work ethic, while Chris Curtis is a clean boxer with solid takedown defense and power. He believes Curtis will win the striking exchanges and defend takedowns. He is confident because Gastelum hasn't shown his best day in years.

moneyline bet
"Chris Curtis is going to be the pick I do have a money line bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Big Brady picks Chris Curtis as the underdog, expecting a close decision. He notes both fighters are durable and have power, but he trusts Curtis's momentum over Gastelum's recent skid. He predicts a split decision and mentions the line has flipped to Gastelum as favorite, making Curtis the dog. He is not confident due to potential judging issues.

"I like I like Curtis to win ... I'll take Chris Curtis to win by like a split uh decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody agrees with Paul on Curtis. He highlights Curtis' takedown defense and notes that Gastelum's wrestling hasn't been effective recently. Cody likes Curtis by decision at +240 as his favorite bet on the card. He points out that Curtis doesn't have much jiu-jitsu, so a submission is unlikely, but a decision is probable. Cody also mentions Gastelum's staph infection and dental issues as potential factors.

Curtis by decision at +240; under 0.5 takedowns for Gastelum on PrizePicks
"Chris Curtis by decision I'll tell you that much"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Chris Curtis. He emphasizes that Curtis is a better counter puncher and that Gastelum is too hittable. Connor also mentions that Curtis has a better chance of landing clean shots that judges will notice, even if they don't hurt Gastelum.

"Yeah, same."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Jacob is locked and loaded on Chris Curtis, calling him a lock. He emphasizes that everyone who engages with Curtis gets knocked out because of his ability to read rhythm and find counter shots. He notes that Gastelum leaves himself open with low hands and gets dropped often. He believes Curtis can knock him out or win a decision.

"I'm locked and loaded on Chris Curtis"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum has been on a tough skid but is only 31 and now training with Fight Ready, known for great game plans. He has underrated wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu, and his durability should hold up against Curtis's power. Curtis is experienced but was out-gamed by Jack Hermansson's range. I think Gastelum's diversity and Fight Ready's plan lead to a decision win, though ring rust is a concern.

"I think this is probably the most favorable matchup that Calvin gaslim has had during this entire slump maybe with the exception of the Ian heinish fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul picks Curtis, citing his superior volume, cardio, and reach advantage. He notes Curtis has excellent takedown defense and has fought bigger middleweights. Paul criticizes Gastelum's recent low output and believes Curtis will outwork him. He expects a 15-minute standup fight and likes Curtis by decision at plus money. Paul also mentions Curtis' experience sparring with Sean Strickland and his ability to find openings.

Curtis by decision at +240; over 2.5 rounds at -220; under 0.5 takedowns for Gastelum on PrizePicks
"sign me up for Action Man"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis to finish Kelvin Gastelum in round three via body shot. He expects a war where both land big shots, but Curtis will dig to the body consistently, wearing Gastelum down. He notes Gastelum's poor shape and good chin, predicting that body shots will be the key. He describes a sequence where Gastelum slows down and Curtis finishes him against the cage.

round three finish, body shot
"I'm gonna say Curtis finishes him in round three"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Zane picks Chris Curtis because he believes Curtis will land the better, more memorable shots. He notes that Curtis is an accurate and powerful counter puncher, while Gastelum remains hittable with his chin up. Zane also points out that Curtis has been getting decisions lately and that Gastelum's prime started early and he has taken a lot of damage.

"I'm going to pick Chris Curtis because I think he's going to land the better shots."
LOSS vs Jared Cannonier
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · Aug 21, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Cannonier 1 81 of 207 39% 91 of 218 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Kelvin Gastelum 0 89 of 246 36% 89 of 246 0 of 8 0% 0 0 2:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Cannonier 0 19 of 45 42% 19 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kelvin Gastelum 0 22 of 57 38% 22 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Jared Cannonier 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kelvin Gastelum 0 24 of 59 40% 24 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Jared Cannonier 1 17 of 40 42% 17 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Kelvin Gastelum 0 15 of 54 27% 15 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:19
4 Jared Cannonier 0 15 of 45 33% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kelvin Gastelum 0 16 of 41 39% 16 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:45
5 Jared Cannonier 0 13 of 34 38% 19 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kelvin Gastelum 0 12 of 35 34% 12 of 35 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Cannonier 81 of 207 39% 51 of 162 20 of 31 10 of 14 79 of 205 2 of 2 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 89 of 246 36% 48 of 187 22 of 36 19 of 23 88 of 243 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Cannonier 19 of 45 42% 11 of 26 5 of 13 3 of 6 19 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 22 of 57 38% 11 of 39 4 of 11 7 of 7 22 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jared Cannonier 17 of 43 39% 10 of 35 2 of 3 5 of 5 17 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 24 of 59 40% 15 of 47 4 of 7 5 of 5 23 of 57 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Jared Cannonier 17 of 40 42% 12 of 33 5 of 6 0 of 1 16 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 15 of 54 27% 9 of 45 5 of 8 1 of 1 15 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Jared Cannonier 15 of 45 33% 9 of 38 6 of 7 0 of 0 15 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 16 of 41 39% 6 of 28 7 of 8 3 of 5 16 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jared Cannonier 13 of 34 38% 9 of 30 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 12 of 35 34% 7 of 28 2 of 2 3 of 5 12 of 34 0 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Big Brady picks Jared Cannonier, citing his reach advantage, power, and striking accuracy. He notes Cannonier is in his prime at 37, while Gastelum seems to be declining. He believes Cannonier's leg kicks and size will be key, and he predicts a third-round knockout, giving Gastelum his first KO loss.

third round knockout
"i'll take him here i think the six inches of reach is going to be huge"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Cody picks Gastelum as a dog, citing his cardio, five-round experience, and wrestling advantage. He notes Cannonier's low volume, hesitancy, and questionable cardio in longer fights, and points out Gastelum has never been knocked out. He suggests betting live after Gastelum loses early rounds.

Bet live after Gastelum loses first round or two; Gastelum has never been knocked out
"i think kelvin gaslin could hustle him up a plus 130 i'm going to take the dog shot here it's a dog or pass main event for me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum is the better all-around fighter with five-round experience and cardio advantage. Cannonier has knockout power but has never been stopped, and his cardio is unproven in later rounds. I think Gastelum weathers the early storm and takes over in rounds 3-5, winning by decision or late finish.

Gastelum by decision (+225); live bet on Gastelum after round 1 or 2
"i'm gonna be taking calvin gaslum and i'm going to be taking gas limits uh via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Gastelum at plus money. He emphasizes Gastelum's durability (never knocked out) and Cannonier's potential gas tank issues in later rounds. He also mentions the possibility of betting Gastelum live if he loses early rounds.

Bet live if Gastelum loses early rounds; Gastelum has never been knocked out
"gun to my head i'm betting kelvin gastle in my plus 130"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

The MMA Guru picks Jared Cannonier to win by TKO, focusing on leg kicks. He notes Cannonier's vicious leg kicks (as seen against Whittaker and Silva) and Gastelum's heavy lead leg and lack of leg support. He predicts Cannonier will chop down Gastelum's legs, then catch him with a straight right as Gastelum lunges. He also mentions Gastelum's quick turnaround and accumulated damage.

TKO via leg kicks and straight right
"i'm gonna go with jared cannon here by tko leg kicks i think will chop down kelvin gastelum"