Joseph Benavidez vs Tim Elliott

Tim Elliott

10-12

UFC 172: Jones vs. Teixeira · Apr 26, 2014 · Flyweight · Completed

Prev Fight UFC 172: Jones vs. Teixeira Next Fight

Age 41

Height 5' 4"

Reach 65.0"

Weight 125 lbs.

Stance Southpaw

UFC SD

Age 39

Height 5' 7"

Reach 66.0"

Weight 125 lbs.

Stance Southpaw

UFC SD

Career Averages - Joseph Benavidez

3.52 SLpM

34.0% Str. Acc.

2.67 SApM

61.0% Str. Def.

1.41 TD Avg

30.0% TD Acc.

62.0% TD Def.

0.6 Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Tim Elliott

3.37 SLpM

44.0% Str. Acc.

2.65 SApM

57.0% Str. Def.

3.71 TD Avg

47.0% TD Acc.

59.0% TD Def.

1.1 Sub. Avg

Joseph Benavidez - Fight History

LOSS vs Askar Askarov

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Mar 06, 2021

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Askar Askarov	0	46 of 114	40%	61 of 130	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
Joseph Benavidez	0	58 of 88	65%	71 of 107	5 of 6	83%	0	0	5:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Askar Askarov	18 of 54	33%	20 of 56	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Joseph Benavidez	21 of 26	80%	22 of 27	1 of 2	50%	0:54
2	Askar Askarov	11 of 19	57%	23 of 32	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Joseph Benavidez	17 of 24	70%	29 of 42	4 of 4	100%	4:06
3	Askar Askarov	17 of 41	41%	18 of 42	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Joseph Benavidez	20 of 38	52%	20 of 38	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Askar Askarov	46 of 114	40%	13 of 57	21 of 41	12 of 16	41 of 108	4 of 5	1 of 1
Joseph Benavidez	58 of 88	65%	39 of 65	14 of 18	5 of 5	50 of 77	4 of 5	4 of 6

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Askar Askarov	18 of 54	33%	5 of 23	8 of 23	5 of 8	16 of 51	2 of 3	0 of 0
1	Joseph Benavidez	21 of 26	80%	13 of 17	7 of 8	1 of 1	20 of 25	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Askar Askarov	11 of 19	57%	5 of 13	4 of 4	2 of 2	8 of 16	2 of 2	1 of 1
2	Joseph Benavidez	17 of 24	70%	12 of 19	2 of 2	3 of 3	10 of 15	3 of 3	4 of 6
3	Askar Askarov	17 of 41	41%	3 of 21	9 of 14	5 of 6	17 of 41	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Joseph Benavidez	20 of 38	52%	14 of 29	5 of 8	1 of 1	20 of 37	0 of 1	0 of 0

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Joseph Benavidez

Big Brady picks Joseph Benavidez as an underdog, citing a favorable stylistic matchup with Benavidez's scrambling and speed against Askarov's wrestling. He questions Askarov's level after close fights with Moreno and Pantoja. He worries about Benavidez's age (36) and damage taken in recent losses but believes this is a winnable fight. He predicts a close decision.

"i'm actually going to take the underdog here with joseph benavidez"

DFS by the Numbers

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Askar Askarov

Daniel picks Askar Askarov to win a 30-27 decision, citing his improving boxing, grappling, and hunger. He believes Benavidez is on the decline after two brutal losses to Figueiredo and that Askarov is the better grappler with more momentum.

"i'm going with nascar ask her up by 30-27"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Joseph Benavidez

Benavidez has better striking, speed, and scrambling. Askarov has been taken down in all his UFC fights and may struggle with Benavidez's movement and calf kicks. The host believes Benavidez is undervalued due to his losses to Figueiredo and predicts a decision win, possibly a KO.

"i'm going with benavidez here i have a little bit of a bet on him"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2021 (8 days before fight)

Askar Askarov

The MMA Guru picks Askar Askarov over Joseph Benavidez. He believes Benavidez's soul was taken by Figueiredo and he is coming back for ego. He notes Askarov's undefeated record, strong grappling base, and pressure style. He predicts Askarov wins by 29-28 unanimous decision, losing the first round but winning the last two.

"i think benavidez's time is done and i think figuerado genuinely took his soul and that's the truth"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Deiveson Figueiredo

Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 4:48 · UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 · Jul 19, 2020

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Deiveson Figueiredo	2	35 of 40	87%	40 of 45	0 of 0	---	4	0	2:23
Joseph Benavidez	0	18 of 28	64%	22 of 33	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Deiveson Figueiredo	2	35 of 40	87%	40 of 45	0 of 0	---	4	0	2:23
1	Joseph Benavidez	0	18 of 28	64%	22 of 33	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Deiveson Figueiredo	35 of 40	87%	31 of 36	4 of 4	0 of 0	12 of 16	0 of 0	23 of 24
Joseph Benavidez	18 of 28	64%	8 of 15	5 of 7	5 of 6	18 of 28	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Deiveson Figueiredo	35 of 40	87%	31 of 36	4 of 4	0 of 0	12 of 16	0 of 0	23 of 24
1	Joseph Benavidez	18 of 28	64%	8 of 15	5 of 7	5 of 6	18 of 28	0 of 0	0 of 0

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)

Deiveson Figueiredo

Big Brady picks Figueiredo but notes red flags: COVID false positive, travel issues, weight miss history. He believes Figueiredo's power is decisive and will knock out Benavidez again, likely in the first three rounds. He thinks Benavidez's volume could win rounds if it goes to decision, but expects Figueiredo to land the harder shots and finish. He will wait for weigh-ins before betting.

knockout, round 3

"My final prediction there is Figueiredo by third round knockout"

DFS by the Numbers

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)

Deiveson Figueiredo

Daniel Levi believes Figueiredo won every area in the first fight: stand-up, wrestling, and jiu-jitsu. He notes that Figueiredo landed the harder shots, easily sprawled on Benavidez's takedowns, and even had a deep armbar. He dismisses the headbutt excuse, stating it was Benavidez's fault for charging in head first. He expects Figueiredo to finish Benavidez again, citing that rematches usually go the same way and that Benavidez chokes in title fights.

Figueiredo to finish Benavidez again

"I got davidson figueretto to finish joseph benavidez again"

Half the Battle

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)

Deiveson Figueiredo

The MMA Guru picks Figueiredo, reversing his first-fight prediction. He notes Figueiredo showed superior grappling in the first fight, nearly submitting Benavidez. He believes Benavidez's chin is weaker after the TKO loss and at 35 years old. He predicts Figueiredo cracks Benavidez and TKOs him in the first round.

Figueiredo by TKO in round 1

"I think Figueredo cracks him end of the first TK owes him in the first round"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Deiveson Figueiredo

TKO (punches) R2 1:54 · UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · Feb 29, 2020

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Deiveson Figueiredo	0	46 of 94	48%	46 of 94	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:10
Joseph Benavidez	1	25 of 49	51%	25 of 49	1 of 1	100%	1	0	0:26

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Deiveson Figueiredo	0	31 of 60	51%	31 of 60	0 of 2	0%	0	0:10
1	Joseph Benavidez	0	15 of 28	53%	15 of 28	1 of 1	100%	1	0:24
2	Deiveson Figueiredo	0	15 of 34	44%	15 of 34	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Joseph Benavidez	1	10 of 21	47%	10 of 21	0 of 0	---	0	0:02

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Deiveson Figueiredo	46 of 94	48%	28 of 63	8 of 13	10 of 18	36 of 78	10 of 16	0 of 0
Joseph Benavidez	25 of 49	51%	18 of 39	7 of 10	0 of 0	20 of 44	2 of 2	3 of 3

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Deiveson Figueiredo	31 of 60	51%	21 of 45	5 of 7	5 of 8	24 of 49	7 of 11	0 of 0
1	Joseph Benavidez	15 of 28	53%	10 of 22	5 of 6	0 of 0	14 of 27	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Deiveson Figueiredo	15 of 34	44%	7 of 18	3 of 6	5 of 10	12 of 29	3 of 5	0 of 0
2	Joseph Benavidez	10 of 21	47%	8 of 17	2 of 4	0 of 0	6 of 17	1 of 1	3 of 3

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Joseph Benavidez

Round 1
Headlining the evening is a flyweight championship rematch pitting Figueiredo (18-1, 7-1 UFC) against Benavidez (28-6, 15-4 UFC) once more. The two met in February, where seconds after a clash of heads, Figueiredo recorded a devastating knockout but was unable to win the title after missing weight. The belt is on the line for both men this time, and there is no love lost between the two. Referee Marc Goddard will need to keep these 125-ers in check, and they decide to touch gloves before swinging for the bleachers. Figueiredo cocks back his right hand immediately, but he comes forward tentatively. The Brazilian fires out a front kick, and Benavidez responds with a leg kick. Benavidez throws another hard leg kick that nearly sweeps out the lead leg. Figueiredo blasts him with a right hook on the temple that sets Benavidez down on the canvas gingerly, and “Deus da Guerra” starts slamming down punches and elbows. Figueiredo takes his back as Benavidez scrambles, and gets his hooks in as he hunts for a rear-naked choke. It is tight as can be, and Benavidez manages to get his throat cleared in time. Figueiredo repositions the choke, and he still cannot get it. They roll around, and Figueiredo locks up the choke and it is over…until miraculously, Benavidez breaks the grip and pulls the arm free. It was deep under the neck, palms clasped, and he still pulled out. Benavidez walks up the cage and emerges from the danger zone with a little blood under the nose but he is OK. Figueiredo comes at him with a few big punches, and Benavidez responds in kind with powerful strikes that get his opponent’s attention. Figueiredo stalks him down and clips Benavidez with a right hand, setting Benavidez down again. The Xtreme Couture fighter springs back to his feet and shakes out the cobwebs to start his attack again. He leaps forward and lands to the body with a powerful shot. Figueiredo winds up with a monster right hand and clocks Benavidez on the jaw. Benavidez goes flying to the canvas for the third time. Figueiredo pounces on him like man on a mission and clubs him a few more times with punches and hacking elbows. Benavidez rolls over and surrenders his back, and Figueiredo snatches up the back in an instant.
“Deus da Guerra” cinches up a rear-naked choke, and this time, there is nothing Benavidez can do. Benavidez flails, but his body is arched back from the torque, extended in a fashion where there is no way out. As Benavidez tries to escape, he loses consciousness with his eyes still open, staring lifelessly at the camera.
Goddard recognizes that Benavidez is asleep, and is forced to intervene. Unbelievable! Benavidez had never before been submitted, and he refused to tap out and surrender in what could be his final title fight. Figueiredo is now the new flyweight champion, and best of luck to the next challenger. You’re gonna need it. See you next week!

The Official Result
Deiveson Figueiredo def. Joseph Benavidez R1 4:48 via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)

WIN vs Jussier Formiga

TKO (head kick and punches) R2 4:47 · UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. dos Santos · Jun 29, 2019

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Joseph Benavidez	0	15 of 48	31%	15 of 48	1 of 3	33%	0	0	0:27
Jussier Formiga	1	50 of 115	43%	72 of 138	0 of 0	---	0	0	2:03

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Joseph Benavidez	0	7 of 26	26%	7 of 26	0 of 1	0%	0:19
1	Jussier Formiga	0	21 of 52	40%	35 of 67	0 of 0	---	0:51
2	Joseph Benavidez	0	8 of 22	36%	8 of 22	1 of 2	50%	0:08
2	Jussier Formiga	1	29 of 63	46%	37 of 71	0 of 0	---	1:12

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Joseph Benavidez	15 of 48	31%	15 of 47	0 of 1	0 of 0	15 of 48	0 of 0	0 of 0
Jussier Formiga	50 of 115	43%	27 of 77	14 of 23	9 of 15	44 of 107	3 of 4	3 of 4

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Joseph Benavidez	7 of 26	26%	7 of 26	0 of 0	0 of 0	7 of 26	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Jussier Formiga	21 of 52	40%	10 of 31	7 of 13	4 of 8	21 of 52	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Joseph Benavidez	8 of 22	36%	8 of 21	0 of 1	0 of 0	8 of 22	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Jussier Formiga	29 of 63	46%	17 of 46	7 of 10	5 of 7	23 of 55	3 of 4	3 of 4

WIN vs Dustin Ortiz

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · Jan 19, 2019

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Joseph Benavidez	1	21 of 50	42%	37 of 72	7 of 12	58%	0	2	6:47
Dustin Ortiz	0	49 of 87	56%	93 of 136	3 of 8	37%	0	1	3:02

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Joseph Benavidez	1	9 of 21	42%	13 of 28	3 of 4	75%	0	2:26
1	Dustin Ortiz	0	16 of 29	55%	25 of 39	0 of 1	0%	0	0:32
2	Joseph Benavidez	0	11 of 22	50%	12 of 23	1 of 4	25%	1	1:17
2	Dustin Ortiz	0	19 of 35	54%	34 of 50	3 of 7	42%	0	1:41
3	Joseph Benavidez	0	1 of 7	14%	12 of 21	3 of 4	75%	1	3:04
3	Dustin Ortiz	0	14 of 23	60%	34 of 47	0 of 0	---	1	0:49

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Joseph Benavidez	21 of 50	42%	7 of 30	6 of 8	8 of 12	20 of 44	0 of 2	1 of 4
Dustin Ortiz	49 of 87	56%	21 of 54	28 of 32	0 of 1	20 of 55	22 of 23	7 of 9

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Joseph Benavidez	9 of 21	42%	3 of 11	2 of 3	4 of 7	8 of 17	0 of 0	1 of 4
1	Dustin Ortiz	16 of 29	55%	7 of 18	9 of 10	0 of 1	8 of 21	7 of 7	1 of 1
2	Joseph Benavidez	11 of 22	50%	4 of 13	4 of 5	3 of 4	11 of 21	0 of 1	0 of 0
2	Dustin Ortiz	19 of 35	54%	8 of 22	11 of 13	0 of 0	9 of 24	10 of 11	0 of 0
3	Joseph Benavidez	1 of 7	14%	0 of 6	0 of 0	1 of 1	1 of 6	0 of 1	0 of 0
3	Dustin Ortiz	14 of 23	60%	6 of 14	8 of 9	0 of 0	3 of 10	5 of 5	6 of 8

WIN vs Alex Perez

TKO (punches) R1 4:19 · The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · Nov 30, 2018

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Joseph Benavidez	0	35 of 72	48%	42 of 79	1 of 2	50%	0	0	1:15
Alex Perez	0	14 of 32	43%	14 of 32	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:03

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Joseph Benavidez	0	35 of 72	48%	42 of 79	1 of 2	50%	0	0	1:15
1	Alex Perez	0	14 of 32	43%	14 of 32	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:03

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Joseph Benavidez	35 of 72	48%	20 of 48	11 of 17	4 of 7	19 of 50	1 of 2	15 of 20
Alex Perez	14 of 32	43%	5 of 21	7 of 9	2 of 2	9 of 27	5 of 5	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Joseph Benavidez	35 of 72	48%	20 of 48	11 of 17	4 of 7	19 of 50	1 of 2	15 of 20
1	Alex Perez	14 of 32	43%	5 of 21	7 of 9	2 of 2	9 of 27	5 of 5	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Joseph Benavidez vs. Alex Perez

Round 1
Yves Lavigne presides over the clash between rising contender Perez and perennial contender Benavidez. Benavidez is feinting and bobbing, looking to get the much longer Perez to bite on something. A minute in, it’s Perez who closes the distance, rushing Benavidez to the fence and appearing to line up a standing arm-triangle, but nothing comes of it and they disengage. Benavidez is suddenly more aggressive, darting inside and landing hard punches. A right hook stumbles Perez and Benavidez tries to swarm against the fence, but Perez ties him up and recovers. Halfway through the round, Benavidez is closing at will, rushing in with a one-two punctuated by a low kick. With two minutes left, Benavidez topples over an off-balance Perez with a punch. He flattens him and blasts him with punches and hammerfists. Referee Lavigne steps in and puts his hands on the fighters, stopping the action, then retreats and has the fighters fight on. Perez takes the momentary relaxation on the part of his opponent to recover and attempt to escape. Abysmal refereeing.
Benavidez corrals Perez back to the ground and pounds him with more punches until Lavigne stops the fight once again
, apparently for real this time. Horrible gaffe by Yves Lavigne that fortunately did not affect the outcome of the fight.

The Official Result
Joseph Benavidez def. Alex Perez R1 4:19 via TKO (Strikes)

LOSS vs Sergio Pettis

Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · Jun 09, 2018

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Sergio Pettis	0	59 of 186	31%	86 of 216	2 of 14	14%	0	0	4:24
Joseph Benavidez	0	74 of 168	44%	87 of 183	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Sergio Pettis	25 of 59	42%	32 of 67	1 of 5	20%	1:14
1	Joseph Benavidez	25 of 60	41%	35 of 70	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Sergio Pettis	14 of 54	25%	26 of 68	0 of 4	0%	1:55
2	Joseph Benavidez	22 of 47	46%	24 of 49	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Sergio Pettis	20 of 73	27%	28 of 81	1 of 5	20%	1:15
3	Joseph Benavidez	27 of 61	44%	28 of 64	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Sergio Pettis	59 of 186	31%	28 of 128	14 of 33	17 of 25	57 of 180	2 of 6	0 of 0
Joseph Benavidez	74 of 168	44%	69 of 155	5 of 13	0 of 0	64 of 158	9 of 9	1 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Sergio Pettis	25 of 59	42%	12 of 35	6 of 12	7 of 12	24 of 58	1 of 1	0 of 0
1	Joseph Benavidez	25 of 60	41%	25 of 59	0 of 1	0 of 0	22 of 57	2 of 2	1 of 1
2	Sergio Pettis	14 of 54	25%	7 of 38	2 of 10	5 of 6	13 of 51	1 of 3	0 of 0
2	Joseph Benavidez	22 of 47	46%	20 of 41	2 of 6	0 of 0	17 of 42	5 of 5	0 of 0
3	Sergio Pettis	20 of 73	27%	9 of 55	6 of 11	5 of 7	20 of 71	0 of 2	0 of 0
3	Joseph Benavidez	27 of 61	44%	24 of 55	3 of 6	0 of 0	25 of 59	2 of 2	0 of 0

WIN vs Henry Cejudo

Decision (split) (27–29, 30–26, 29–27) R3 5:00 · The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · Dec 03, 2016

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Joseph Benavidez	0	69 of 232	29%	69 of 232	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:01
Henry Cejudo	1	68 of 195	34%	70 of 197	1 of 7	14%	0	0	0:13

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Joseph Benavidez	0	22 of 69	31%	22 of 69	0 of 0	---	0:01
1	Henry Cejudo	1	21 of 66	31%	21 of 66	1 of 3	33%	0:06
2	Joseph Benavidez	0	22 of 76	28%	22 of 76	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Henry Cejudo	0	21 of 64	32%	21 of 64	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Joseph Benavidez	0	25 of 87	28%	25 of 87	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Henry Cejudo	0	26 of 65	40%	28 of 67	0 of 4	0%	0:07

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Joseph Benavidez	69 of 232	29%	39 of 172	19 of 35	11 of 25	68 of 228	1 of 4	0 of 0
Henry Cejudo	68 of 195	34%	29 of 143	29 of 39	10 of 13	59 of 176	9 of 19	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Joseph Benavidez	22 of 69	31%	8 of 47	6 of 11	8 of 11	21 of 65	1 of 4	0 of 0
1	Henry Cejudo	21 of 66	31%	9 of 47	8 of 13	4 of 6	16 of 51	5 of 15	0 of 0
2	Joseph Benavidez	22 of 76	28%	13 of 54	6 of 12	3 of 10	22 of 76	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Henry Cejudo	21 of 64	32%	10 of 51	7 of 8	4 of 5	19 of 62	2 of 2	0 of 0
3	Joseph Benavidez	25 of 87	28%	18 of 71	7 of 12	0 of 4	25 of 87	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Henry Cejudo	26 of 65	40%	10 of 45	14 of 18	2 of 2	24 of 63	2 of 2	0 of 0

View all 22 fights

Tim Elliott - Fight History

LOSS vs Steve Erceg

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · May 02, 2026

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Tim Elliott	0	90 of 261	34%	93 of 265	2 of 11	18%	0	0	0:34
Steve Erceg	0	136 of 254	53%	136 of 254	1 of 3	33%	0	0	0:29

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Tim Elliott	39 of 91	42%	40 of 93	2 of 3	66%	0:18
1	Steve Erceg	24 of 55	43%	24 of 55	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Tim Elliott	27 of 78	34%	28 of 79	0 of 4	0%	0:16
2	Steve Erceg	47 of 85	55%	47 of 85	1 of 2	50%	0:29
3	Tim Elliott	24 of 92	26%	25 of 93	0 of 4	0%	0:00
3	Steve Erceg	65 of 114	57%	65 of 114	0 of 1	0%	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Tim Elliott	90 of 261	34%	44 of 191	11 of 27	35 of 43	87 of 255	3 of 6	0 of 0
Steve Erceg	136 of 254	53%	122 of 236	14 of 18	0 of 0	129 of 245	7 of 9	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Tim Elliott	39 of 91	42%	20 of 57	5 of 15	14 of 19	39 of 89	0 of 2	0 of 0
1	Steve Erceg	24 of 55	43%	21 of 52	3 of 3	0 of 0	21 of 52	3 of 3	0 of 0
2	Tim Elliott	27 of 78	34%	10 of 56	4 of 8	13 of 14	24 of 75	3 of 3	0 of 0
2	Steve Erceg	47 of 85	55%	44 of 82	3 of 3	0 of 0	44 of 81	3 of 4	0 of 0
3	Tim Elliott	24 of 92	26%	14 of 78	2 of 4	8 of 10	24 of 91	0 of 1	0 of 0
3	Steve Erceg	65 of 114	57%	57 of 102	8 of 12	0 of 0	64 of 112	1 of 2	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg

Round 1
Elliott (21-13; 10-11 UFC), one of the flyweight division’s top spoilers over the last several years, looks to take that role once again in this featured clash with Perth’s own, “Astro Boy” Erceg (13-4; 4-3 UFC). Lukasz Bosacki is the referee on duty. Both men are in orthodox stance and Elliott immediately starts with his oddball striking attack, switching stances, hanging his hands at his waist and stabbing out with Jon Jones-style oblique kicks at Erceg’s lead leg. The contrast could not be much greater, as Erceg comes forward in his classic, composed upright stance. Through the first 90 seconds, the resulting collisions are sporadic and awkward; Erceg slides forward but refuses to be drawn into a wild firefight, while Elliott lands sporadic strikes but can’t string anything together. A little past the halfway mark, Erceg lands a clean one-two that represents the best offense by either man thus far. Erceg appears to be growing more and more comfortable, but Elliott catches him with a sweeping right hand that hurts him. Again, Elliott can’t follow up, and Erceg recovers. Erceg places a couple of stiff jabs on Elliott’s chin, and takes a glancing hook in return. Elliott changes levels and gets a fast takedown against the fence, but Erceg gets right back up. They separate, meet in the center of the cage and Elliott gets another takedown right after the 10-second clapper. The horn sounds. 10-9 Elliott.

Round 2
Elliott is switching stances constantly as they meet in the middle of the cage for Round 2. Erceg again pursues in disciplined fashion, sliding forward and cutting off the cage while Elliott springs in and out of range, spins and throws off-balance single strikes. Elliott is talking, but a minute in, it’s Erceg landing the cleaner, sharper punches. Elliott’s kicks are effective, landing to Erceg’s lead left leg from both sides, mixing in some body work. Elliott changes levels and grounds the Australian with a double-leg, but Erceg pops back to his feet instantly. They disengage and meet against in the center of the Octagon, and it’s Erceg launching a takedown attempt, which Elliott defends. Erceg gets the better of a couple of pocket exchanges, then gets a clean takedown in the middle of the cage. Elliott escapes to his feet and scores a takedown of his own. Erceg escapes to his feet with a minute left and tags Elliott with two unblocked punches. Elliott is hurt but far from out of it, marching forward and swinging big. Erceg gives ground, plants and returns fire with more accurate punches to the head. It’s still competitive, but the momentum has definitely swung the other way as the horn sounds. 10-9 Erceg.

Round 3
Erceg walks down Elliott, who comes up just short with a superman punch. Erceg’s jab continues to define the fight, as he can’t seem to miss with it. The jab is scoring for Erceg, answering everything Elliott throws at him and preventing the American from building any kind of momentum. Elliott hacks away at Erceg’s left leg with two hard low kicks. Erceg suddenly launches a big high kick that glances off of Elliott’s guard, then goes right back to work with his bread-and-butter jab and right cross. Elliott is still in Erceg’s face at the midpoint of the round, coming forward with big swinging punches, and Erceg is calmly sniping him on the counter every single time. Elliott drops levels and runs Erceg all the way across the cage with a double-leg, depositing him on his butt at the base of the fence. Erceg gets right back up and Elliott disengages rather than keep wrestling. When they meet again it’s more of the same: Erceg slipping big telegraphed attacks from Elliott and returning fire with ultra-clean punches. The horn sounds on what was, by the end, a quietly dominant performance for Steve Erceg. 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg).

The Official Result
Steve Erceg def. Tim Elliott via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Steve Erceg

Angelo picks Steve Erceg despite being a known hater, because he believes Erceg is the cleaner, more technical grappler. He thinks Erceg's durability and wrestling will overcome Tim Elliott's pressure. However, he criticizes the -400 odds as too high and finds it hard to connect the dots.

Odds mentioned as -400; no bet recommendation.

"Steve Ursg is the pick. Four to one though. Four to one. It's I mean seems a little dicey to me, but I get it."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Steve Erceg

Big Brady picks Steve Erceg to win by third-round submission. He believes Erceg is the better striker and has underrated grappling, while Tim Elliott slows down and has poor submission defense (submitted six times). Brady expects Elliott to be competitive early but fade, allowing Erceg to catch a late submission.

Erceg by submission, round 3

"Give me Erceg to win this fight by third-round submission."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)

Steve Erceg

Cody picks Erceg but is hesitant, noting Erceg's inconsistency and chin issues. He believes Erceg's takedown defense and counter grappling will be key, and that Elliott's age and travel fatigue may work against him.

"I think Erceg is a better live target than prefing at minus 210. He's going to be the pick for me, though."

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Steve Erceg

Daniel Vreeland picks Steve Erceg, expecting him to take over in the later rounds. He notes Tim Elliott's funky style and early-round danger but believes Erceg's cardio and submission threat will prevail. He also mentions Elliott's jet lag complaints as a potential factor.

"I think Steve Ersk takes over the latter part of this fight and either wins by submission or decision."

Half the Battle

Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Steve Erceg

Erceg has every advantage: home crowd, younger, better striker, better grappler. Elliott has poor striking, bad takedown defense, and is weak off his back. Erceg went five rounds with Pantoja, so submission risk is low. Surprised Erceg isn't a bigger favorite; tempted to bet straight.

"I would be very surprised if he were to lose this... he's got basically every advantage you could possibly want over Tim Elliott."

Diary of a Pro Gambler

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Steve Erceg

Lucrative James picks Steve Erceg to win via submission in round three. He expects Tim Elliott to start strong but fade, allowing Erceg to take over in later rounds with superior cardio and grappling. He references Erceg's past performances where he dominated late rounds.

"I will go with Steve Ursig to win this fight via submission in round three as my official prediction."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Steve Erceg

The host picks Erceg, believing his Muay Thai and BJJ will nullify Elliott's grappling. He expects Erceg to land more damage on the feet and win a decision, possibly catching Elliott in a submission. The host notes Elliott's value but thinks Erceg is the more skilled fighter.

Decision win; possible submission

"I'm going to pick Ersig. I'll keep my eye on the line throughout this week. Uh, but I feel like Erskig will end up landing more damage. I think he could potentially get a submission of his own as well, …"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)

Steve Erceg

Paul picks Erceg, emphasizing his strong takedown defense and performance against top competition. He notes Elliott's age and travel issues, and believes Erceg will edge out a close decision in Australia.

"Steve Urs makes a lot more sense and I think it's going to be a very close competitive fight goes to the scorecards in Australia that they're going to edge it for so that's just my take on it."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Tim Elliott

The MMA Guru picks Tim Elliott after initially considering Steve Erceg. He worries about Erceg's inconsistency, citing the Ode Osbourne fight, and believes Elliott's craftiness will lead to a split decision win. He thinks Erceg may fumble in the big moment.

decision win 29-28

"I'm going to go with Tim Elliott getting this one done by decision win 29-28."

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Kai Asakura

Submission R2 4:39 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Tim Elliott	0	27 of 71	38%	42 of 88	2 of 3	66%	2	0	1:54
Kai Asakura	0	21 of 87	24%	38 of 104	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:01

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Tim Elliott	16 of 40	40%	24 of 50	1 of 1	100%	0	0:49
1	Kai Asakura	11 of 45	24%	20 of 54	0 of 0	---	0	0:01
2	Tim Elliott	11 of 31	35%	18 of 38	1 of 2	50%	2	1:05
2	Kai Asakura	10 of 42	23%	18 of 50	0 of 0	---	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Tim Elliott	27 of 71	38%	18 of 43	2 of 18	7 of 10	26 of 69	0 of 0	1 of 2
Kai Asakura	21 of 87	24%	17 of 79	3 of 7	1 of 1	21 of 87	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Tim Elliott	16 of 40	40%	9 of 24	1 of 8	6 of 8	15 of 39	0 of 0	1 of 1
1	Kai Asakura	11 of 45	24%	8 of 40	3 of 5	0 of 0	11 of 45	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Tim Elliott	11 of 31	35%	9 of 19	1 of 10	1 of 2	11 of 30	0 of 0	0 of 1
2	Kai Asakura	10 of 42	23%	9 of 39	0 of 2	1 of 1	10 of 42	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Kai Asakura vs. Tim Elliott
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Asakura (-310), Elliott (+250)

Round 1
It’s main card time, and a pair of exciting flyweights will start off this $85 event—regional pricing notwithstanding. After over a year and a half away, elder statesman Elliott (20-13-1, 9-11 UFC) comes back to the cage to take on former title challenger and ex-Rizin champ Asakura (21-5, 0-1 UFC). The latter is looking for his first UFC win, as he was thrust into a championship opportunity in his December debut, and he fights down the rankings board to find his place in the division. The two will have referee Rob Madrigal overseeing what should be a fun one, and they do not tap their gloves together to engage.
Elliott fakes a giant spinning kick to lead off, and he lowers his hands and starts tossing out flashy kicks. Asakura answers him with two powerful punches upstairs, and Elliott still does not pick his hands up. Elliott hops up and down while switching stances, drawing out a few more punches that he avoids successfully before pitching a head kick. Elliott spins with a back kick, and he absorbs three punches to the body and head from the Japanese flyweight. Asakura bears down on Elliott to strike him a few times, and he rocks the former Glory MMA fighter with his big swings. Elliott swings back hard too, and he nods to Asakura that he got caught. Elliott waves his hands around awkwardly waiting for Asakura to engage, and he misses his strikes including an open-handed slap.
Asakura nails the longtime vet with a right hand and a left hook that drives Elliott to the wall, but Elliott bounces away no harm done. Asakura beats his man to the punch with his long strikes, and Elliott’s offense is barely going at all. Asakura puts a one-two down the pipe that cuts open Elliott’s left eyebrow, and he gets off a knee to the body and several punches after it. Elliott bounces back, landing a single low kick but getting potshotted by Asakura. Elliott tags his foe at the end of a single right hand, but it is one-and-done as he gets back to unorthodox movements and attacks like a cartwheel kick. Asakura boots Elliott upside the head, and Elliott ducks down and secures a double to advance immediately to the side. Elliott spams surprisingly heavy knees to the body to open up elbows, and he briefly traps Asakura’s arm beneath his leg to open up more strikes. Elliott elbows a few more times, and Asakura scrambles to stand as the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Asakura
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Asakura
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Asakura

Round 2
As the second round begins, Elliott motions to the crowd to get excited and then somersaults towards his opponent. Asakura ignores it and lets Elliott stand up so he can plant his fist in his face. Elliott’s strange movement opens up a heavy left hand for him, and he connects a second in the middle of Asakura’s counters. Chants in favor of Elliott rain down, but no one does anything to take advantage of that energy. Asakura scores a leg kick, and Elliott goes to the body and then flails his way forward with fists flying. Elliott slips and rips with a left hand, and he winds up another and catches Asakura flush on the jaw. Asakura comes up short with a flying knee, and Elliott dodges the worst of them and is right back in Asakura’s face with a left hook zooming. Asakura times a solid right hand with Elliott ducking, and Elliott just smiles at him. How demoralizing.
Elliott jams Asakura in the knee with a pair of stomping kicks, and his low kicks that follow disrupt the wide-swinging Asakura. Elliott keeps himself afloat with decent movement, especially upstairs, but he still takes the occasional power punch that turns his different parts of his face a shade of crimson. Elliott runs at his opponent and secures a takedown, but when he circles to take the back, Asakura is able to escape. Asakura just misses with two booming hooks, and Elliott is as wild as ever as he ducks some punches, dances around and shoots with a takedown. Asakura sits up, and Elliott threatens with a guillotine choke and uses it to relocate himself to full mount. Asakura pushes with all his might to relieve the pressure, but his eyes start to bulge and his face changes colors. Even with little time left in the round, Asakura cannot ride it out any longer. The former Rizin champ taps out twice on the hip, and Elliott has just pulled off quite an upset. The year is 2025 and Tim Elliott has just finished a fight over a man many years his junior.

The Official Result
Tim Elliott def. Kai Asakura R2 4:39 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Tim Elliott

Angelo questions why Asakura is a 3-to-1 favorite given his lack of UFC success and poor takedown defense. He believes Elliott's grit, forward pressure, and grappling can overwhelm Asakura, despite Elliott's age and layoff. He picks Elliott, rooting for him due to his personal story.

"I'm going to pick Tim Elliott here. I you know this is another like plus three and a half's tricky because Kai Sakura is dangerous."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Kai Asakura

Big Brady picks Kai Asakura to win by second-round knockout. He is worried about Tim Elliott's age (38), layoff (1 year 8 months), and cardio. He thinks Asakura has good takedown defense and nasty striking with power. He notes Elliott hasn't faced many power punchers and that Asakura is a big favorite. He also questions Elliott's training camp. He expects Asakura to finish Elliott.

Asakura by KO, round 2

"I like Kaiasakura here quite a bit. ... I think Kayakura is going to finish him here. So, I like Kaya Sakur, I'll take him to win this fight and win this fight by second round knockout."

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Kai Asakura

Connor picks Asakura, but with low confidence, noting that Asakura is an insanely talented intercepting striker with good scrambling wrestling. He believes Asakura's speed and counter-striking could lead to Elliott's first knockout loss, as Elliott is very hittable. However, he acknowledges that Elliott's tenacity and chain wrestling could exhaust Asakura, and that Asakura's defense is poor.

Asakura opened at -250, currently -300; Elliott opened at +210, currently +250

"I think this is going to be the first knockout loss of his career. I think I'll take Asakura too."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Tim Elliott

The host acknowledges Asakura's finishing nature but highlights Elliott's elite flyweight grappling and record. He expects Elliott to avoid Asakura's finishing style, grind him against the cage, take him down, and win by decision with top control.

"Tim Elliott is one of the best flyweight grapplers considering all the records that he holds in the division"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Kai Asakura

The Guru picks Kai Asakura to win by first-round KO over Tim Elliott. He believes Asakura is more dynamic, physical, and has finishing potential. The Guru notes that Elliott lacks power and will not be able to earn Asakura's respect on the feet. He predicts Asakura will eat a few shots, realize he can take them, and then finish Elliott with a brutal combination. The Guru also mentions Elliott's age and lack of motivation as factors.

First round KO; highlight reel KO

"I think Asakura is a lot more dynamic, a lot more physical. He's larger. He's got reach on Tim Elliot. He's got a lot of finishing potential. Highlight reel. First round KO from Kaasakura."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Kai Asakura

Zane picks Asakura, but is not confident, noting that Asakura's style is high-risk and that Elliott is durable and has never been knocked out. He points out that Asakura's defense is poor but he stays focused and is hard to hurt. Zane believes Asakura's speed and counter-striking could be too much for Elliott, but he acknowledges that Elliott's wrestling could be a problem if he gets takedowns.

Asakura opened at -250, currently -300; Elliott opened at +210, currently +250

"I think I'll take Asakura. I think it will probably be very fun and messy. Um, but I'm not super confident."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Sumudaerji

Technical Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 4:02 · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Dec 09, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Tim Elliott	0	10 of 21	47%	26 of 37	1 of 3	33%	1	0	2:05
Sumudaerji	0	10 of 25	40%	10 of 25	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Tim Elliott	0	10 of 21	47%	26 of 37	1 of 3	33%	1	0	2:05
1	Sumudaerji	0	10 of 25	40%	10 of 25	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Tim Elliott	10 of 21	47%	6 of 13	0 of 1	4 of 7	8 of 18	2 of 2	0 of 1
Sumudaerji	10 of 25	40%	6 of 19	3 of 4	1 of 2	10 of 25	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Tim Elliott	10 of 21	47%	6 of 13	0 of 1	4 of 7	8 of 18	2 of 2	0 of 1
1	Sumudaerji	10 of 25	40%	6 of 19	3 of 4	1 of 2	10 of 25	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Tim Elliott vs. Su Mudaerji
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Elliott (-165), Mudarji (+135)

Round 1
Stepping up a few days ago to replace Allan Nascimento, former flyweight title challenger Elliott (19-13-1, 8-11 UFC) pops into this now-bantamweight bash with Mudaerji (16-5, 3-2 UFC). This scrap that could—and very well may—take place anywhere will be overseen by referee Herb Dean, and he is ready for what comes next. The fighters touch ‘em up, and Elliott somersaults his way in to kick Mudaerji. Mudaerji shrugs it off, and Elliott keeps his knee up high to fluster his opponent. Mudaerji tries to pick off the veteran from range, and he gets in long strikes every so often to get Elliott’s attention. Mudaerji stays composed and does not fall for many of the awkward movements from Elliott, and he picks his shots carefully and stings Elliott with a right hand. Mudaerji boots Elliott upside the head, and Elliott grabs hold of the leg and tries to take him down. Mudaerji keeps his balance, but he gets clipped with a right hook when setting it down. Mudaerji connects with a clean left hand, and he strings several punches together until Elliott charges at him to go after a single. Elliott lifts Mudaerji’s leg above his head and elbows the Chinese fighter in the face, and he trips Mudaerji up and tosses him to the canvas. Elliott slithers his way over to half guard as he grinds on Mudaerji with elbows, and he draws blood as Mudaerji turns to his side. Elliott keeps his arm around Mudaerji’s head to threaten with a potential submission should Mudaerji sit up, and Elliott drills him with an elbow.
Elliott leaps over to the other side and locks down an arm-triangle choke, and the choke is instantly in and tight. Elliott presses down his full body weight, and blood sprays from Mudaerji’s mouth in a brutal, cinematic moment as Mudaerji loses consciousness.
Dean recognizes that Mudaerji is done, checking the arm of “Tibetan Eagle” and seeing there is no resistance, and he yanks Elliot off of the unconscious fighter. This is a great feather in the cap of the veteran, who earns his first finish since December 2017 with the technical submission.

The Official Result
Tim Elliott def. Su Mudaerji R1 4:02 via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Sumudaerji

Cody picks Sumudaerji because he doubts Tim Elliott's conditioning. He notes that Elliott took the fight on three days' notice and has only trained twice. Cody thinks Elliott's cardio is already suspect and will fade quickly. He believes Sumudaerji has a good left hand and can capitalize if Elliott tires. Cody suggests this is a better live bet opportunity, but for a pre-fight pick, he goes with Sumudaerji.

Live bet Sumudaerji if it gets out of the first round

"I'm gonna take suad deri suad deri's got to be he's got to have some size on him here too right"

Bookie Beatdown

Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Dec 9, 2023 (fight day)

Sumudaerji

Lucrative James acknowledges the volatility due to Elliott taking the fight on short notice after a recent grappling match. He sees a massive striking advantage for Sumudaerji and thinks he could crack Elliott. However, he notes Elliott's massive grappling edge and that Sumudaerji has been submitted in all his losses. He leans Sumudaerji but passes on betting because the line is +110 and he can't lay that with the grappling disparity. He picks Sumudaerji for the win.

"I'm picking suuji for the win I'm not betting on it"

Lucrative MMA

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Tim Elliott

Paul picks Tim Elliott but is curious about the submission prop. He notes that Elliott's wrestling and ground game are superior, and Sumudaerji has poor submission defense. Paul thinks Elliott can find a submission if he plays his cards right. He acknowledges Elliott's cardio issues but believes the grappling advantage is significant. Paul is waiting for the Elliott by submission prop to open and hopes for a price around +400 to +500.

Elliott by submission at +400 to +500 if available

"Elliott is the pick I'm curious what the price would be on Elliot by submission and maybe I'll play it if uh if the price is somewhat juicy"

Bookie Beatdown

LOSS vs Muhammad Mokaev

Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 3:03 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Muhammad Mokaev	0	30 of 43	69%	71 of 87	1 of 1	100%	2	0	2:23
Tim Elliott	0	14 of 33	42%	118 of 146	3 of 6	50%	1	0	8:24

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Muhammad Mokaev	20 of 31	64%	34 of 46	1 of 1	100%	0	1:40
1	Tim Elliott	10 of 28	35%	40 of 58	1 of 3	33%	0	1:36
2	Muhammad Mokaev	6 of 6	100%	33 of 35	0 of 0	---	2	0:00
2	Tim Elliott	3 of 3	100%	60 of 65	1 of 1	100%	0	4:56
3	Muhammad Mokaev	4 of 6	66%	4 of 6	0 of 0	---	0	0:43
3	Tim Elliott	1 of 2	50%	18 of 23	1 of 2	50%	1	1:52

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Muhammad Mokaev	30 of 43	69%	19 of 30	10 of 12	1 of 1	14 of 27	8 of 8	8 of 8
Tim Elliott	14 of 33	42%	8 of 21	3 of 8	3 of 4	10 of 29	1 of 1	3 of 3

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Muhammad Mokaev	20 of 31	64%	10 of 19	9 of 11	1 of 1	14 of 25	4 of 4	2 of 2
1	Tim Elliott	10 of 28	35%	4 of 16	3 of 8	3 of 4	9 of 27	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Muhammad Mokaev	6 of 6	100%	6 of 6	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	6 of 6
2	Tim Elliott	3 of 3	100%	3 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	3 of 3
3	Muhammad Mokaev	4 of 6	66%	3 of 5	1 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 2	4 of 4	0 of 0
3	Tim Elliott	1 of 2	50%	1 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Tim Elliott vs. Muhammad Mokaev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mokaev (-485), Elliott (+370)

Round 1
Generations will clash in the preliminary headliner, when old guard representative Elliott (19-12-1, 8-10 UFC) tries to teach 23-year-old up-and-comer Mokaev (10-0, 1 NC; 4-0 UFC) a thing or two. Before a torch is or is not passed at 125 pounds, referee Jason Herzog lights it. The gloves are touched, and Elliott hops forward with his leg up and gets swatted back. Mokaev tags his opponent, but Elliott powers through it to hit a takedown and put the youngster on his back early. Mokaev looks to hook an elbow from off his back and stifle anything coming down on him, but Elliott elects to simply smack “The Punisher” in the jaw with that wing. Elliott drops down a couple elbows until Mokaev scrambles back up to his feet, and Elliott is quick to stuff a takedown that comes at him. Elliott skims the Dagestan-born fighter’s forehead with an elbow, and he chases after Mokaev with his hands down. Mokaev attempts another takedown, and he is stopped in his tracks. Mokaev puts his hands on the mat, and Elliot knees him twice with questionable strikes – largely depending on the amount of weight Mokaev had on his hands. Mokaev is fine, and the fight resumes. Elliott spins with a back kick, and his awkward kicks are frustrating the younger fighter. Mokaev lunges with a right hand, and he trips up the veteran and takes him down. Elliott snatches up a guillotine choke and torques with all his might, and Mokaev appears unconcerned at the submission and allows Elliott to gas his arms out. Elliott goes after the submission again when fully hitting his back, and that second attempt also falls short. Elliott hacks with elbows off his back, and Mokaev tries to get busy with short body shots. Elliott defends himself from anything of merit, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev

Round 2
When the second round opens, Mokaev shoots directly into a double. Elliott sees this coming and clamps down a guillotine choke. Mokaev, patient and calm, does not struggle or do much to put himself in harm’s way. Instead, he does the right things to step to the side and wriggle his neck out, and he moves to top position as Elliott elbows him illegally behind the head several times. Elliott is the active striker of the two despite Mokaev on top of him, although few strikes of merit connect on either side. Mokaev clings to the former title challenger while looking to pass, but Elliott’s guard keeps him at bay. Mokaev sits up, and he falls right into a triangle choke trap. Elliott grips hold of an armbar to make things worse, and “The Punisher” uses all of his might to lift Elliott in the air and slam him down to break up the submission. Both fighters flail their fists while in the horizontal position, and Elliott hooks his leg around Mokaev’s arm to stifle him. Mokaev settles to grind out the remainder of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev

Round 3
The awkward stylings of Elliott allow him to close the distance without absorbing anything but a front kick, and he walks forward until Mokaev attempts a takedown. Elliott elbows his man in the top of the head, and after two close ones, Mokaev puts his hands on the mat and is struck with the third that is called a foul. Herzog calls time and gives Mokaev moments to recover, and Mokaev walks around getting the crowd excited. The replay shows the strikes were legal, and Herzog resets them in the same position. Mokaev uses this moment of confusion when they resume to snatch up Elliott’s ankle and flip him over in a slick maneuver. Mokaev does little with the position when he claims it, holding Elliott down and disallowing him from getting up. Elliott grabs hold of a guillotine choke, and this lets Mokaev counter him with a Von Preux setup of the shoulder over his foe’s neck. Elliott releases the grip, but “The Punisher” punishes him for making this mistake by locking down the arm-triangle choke. Mokaev, who slithers into mount, steps partially to the side and presses his full body weight down to complete the submission. Elliott does not need long before tapping out, and Mokaev has recorded the biggest win of his career impressively.

The Official Result
Muhammad Mokaev def. Tim Elliott R3 3:03 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Muhammad Mokaev

Angelo picks Muhammad Mokaev but fades the bet. He acknowledges Mokaev's 0% takedown defense and that Tim Elliott will test it. He notes Mokaev's wins are not as dominant as they seem (Gordon old, Duran took him down, Jafel Filho had a kneebar). He thinks Mokaev's offensive wrestling will prevail but Elliott could cause an upset.

fade the bet

"m is going to be the pick I'm going to fade the BET though"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Muhammad Mokaev

Big Brady picks Muhammad Mokaev to win by third round submission. He notes that Tim Elliott has been submitted many times in his career, while Mokaev is a very good grappler with submission wins over black belts. Brady expects a competitive scramble but believes Mokaev will catch Elliott in a submission as Elliott tends to make mistakes.

third round submission

"give me m to win this fight I'll take M to win this fight by third round submission"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Tim Elliott

Cody picks Elliott, echoing Paul's sentiment that Mokaev is untested and has shown holes in his game. He highlights Elliott's superior wrestling, scrambling, and striking volume, and notes that Mokaev's takedowns are often not held down. Cody believes Elliott's experience and ability to push a pace will lead to an upset, possibly by decision.

Split decision prop

"I'm going to fade again here in Muhammad Mokaev so Mokaev is another one of these guys that because he's got such a dope looking record"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Muhammad Mokaev

Daniel picks Muhammad Mokaev to win, praising his toughness, wrestling, and heart, especially his survival of a kneebar. He acknowledges Tim Elliott's veteran savvy and improved training camp but believes Mokaev's youth and ability to push through fatigue will be decisive. He expects an exciting scramble-heavy fight and thinks Mokaev can submit Elliott or win a decision. He notes that Elliott has stopped prospects before but believes Mokaev is a different level.

Mokaev minus 425, Elliott plus 325; mentions possibility of submission or decision

"I'm gonna go with mokave here to extend the record to 10 and0 um but all respect to Elliott."

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2023 (fight day)

Muhammad Mokaev

James was heavy on Mokaev submission, playing it in two degenerate parlays and also betting half a unit on Mokaev submission in round two and round three at big prices. He also bet under 2.5 rounds. He noted that Mokaev got the submission via arm triangle at 3:33 of round three, just missing the under 2.5 by 33 seconds. James was confident Mokaev would finish, as he saw it as one of his favorite spots on the card.

Mokaev by submission in round 2 or 3; under 2.5 rounds

"I called Muhammad submission round two and round three that was one of my favorite spots on the entire card... I was heavy heavy heavy on Mokaev sub."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Muhammad Mokaev

Mokaev has phenomenal scrambling ability and pushes a high pace. He stays ahead in scrambles and dominates from top position. His striking is flashy but serves to set up takedowns. Elliott is a legitimate test but Mokaev is skilled enough to win by decision. Not confident enough to bet at -600, but would consider at -400.

"I believe that MV will be a step ahead I believe M will land the more damaging shots and I believe he'll end up getting his hand raised by decision"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Tim Elliott

Paul picks Elliott as a dog, arguing that Mokaev is overvalued based on his record against weak competition. He notes that Mokaev has low striking volume and has struggled with cardio and takedown defense, while Elliott has fought elite competition and has a scrambling style that will frustrate Mokaev. Paul believes Elliott's experience and unorthodox striking will earn him a decision or even a split decision.

Split decision prop (any fighter wins by split decision)

"I would be a fool not to take it right certainly at least as far as a pick goes on this show then why not take it"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Muhammad Mokaev

The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Mokaev by decision (29-28), but is hesitant. He thinks Mokaev has the reach advantage and is more dangerous on the feet, and can negate Elliott's grappling. However, he notes that Mokaev has had close fights and nearly lost to Jeffery Filho and Malcolm Gordon. He also points out that Elliott is a good bet by decision as a hedge.

Tim Elliott by decision is great money; Mokaev wins by 29-28 decision

"I am going to go with Muhammad makv but I will say there is great money on Tim Elliott by decision that's my heads up to you guys"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Victor Altamirano

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Tim Elliott	0	28 of 57	49%	153 of 237	6 of 7	85%	0	0	11:13
Victor Altamirano	0	19 of 39	48%	102 of 142	1 of 1	100%	0	0	1:04

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Tim Elliott	9 of 14	64%	44 of 76	2 of 2	100%	4:43
1	Victor Altamirano	2 of 8	25%	47 of 67	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Tim Elliott	5 of 9	55%	49 of 60	2 of 3	66%	3:08
2	Victor Altamirano	7 of 13	53%	35 of 46	1 of 1	100%	1:04
3	Tim Elliott	14 of 34	41%	60 of 101	2 of 2	100%	3:22
3	Victor Altamirano	10 of 18	55%	20 of 29	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Tim Elliott	28 of 57	49%	22 of 48	4 of 6	2 of 3	6 of 21	4 of 4	18 of 32
Victor Altamirano	19 of 39	48%	10 of 28	6 of 8	3 of 3	15 of 31	4 of 8	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Tim Elliott	9 of 14	64%	8 of 13	1 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	9 of 14
1	Victor Altamirano	2 of 8	25%	0 of 5	1 of 2	1 of 1	2 of 6	0 of 2	0 of 0
2	Tim Elliott	5 of 9	55%	4 of 7	1 of 2	0 of 0	1 of 5	2 of 2	2 of 2
2	Victor Altamirano	7 of 13	53%	4 of 10	2 of 2	1 of 1	6 of 11	1 of 2	0 of 0
3	Tim Elliott	14 of 34	41%	10 of 28	2 of 3	2 of 3	5 of 16	2 of 2	7 of 16
3	Victor Altamirano	10 of 18	55%	6 of 13	3 of 4	1 of 1	7 of 14	3 of 4	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Victor Altamirano vs. Tim Elliott
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Elliott (-175), Altamirano (+150)

Round 1
This flyweight affair figures to be a wild one, as former title challenger Elliott (18-12-1, 7-10 UFC) has gone through a lot lately and is looking to push past personal drama to record a win. He faces Texan Altamirano (12-2, 2-1 UFC), who has strung two wins together on his own ledger. This potentially high-paced contest will have referee Mark Smith serve as the Octagon ranger, and the amped up fighters touch gloves quickly. Altamirano leaps out from his corner with kicks, and as he does, Elliott grabs hold of one and lowers him to the floor. Altamirano defends when his seat hits the mat with powerful hammerfists, and Elliott responds with his own from on top. Altamirano is active on his back with strikes and movement, wriggling and trying to force a scramble or irritate Elliott enough with his blows to slow offense. Altamirano kicks off the chest to fight his way up, and when he is upright again, he throws a low kick. Elliott catches it and dumps his man to the floor, and he starts unloading with Donkey Kong-esque hammerfists. Altamirano threatens with an armbar off his back, and Elliott shucks it off so that he can continue striking. Altamirano sets up a high guard and considers another armbar, and Elliott once more pushes through it to land shots. Altamirano stays busy with an offensive guard, despite the strikes landing on his face repeatedly, and the veteran Elliott sees the setups and knows how to avoid any of them from getting too close. Elliott stands up to stack his man up, and he lowers himself back down while dropping punches. Elliott grinds his forehead on the opponent, slugging away all the while. Elliott is seemingly frantic with his strikes, but doing so allows him to not set up a pattern that can allow him to fall into a trap. Altamirano tries to secure another armbar, and Elliott tosses it aside to punch “El Magnifico” in the face. Elliott keeps beating on Altamirano, with no strike individually immensely powerful, but the number is adding up fast. The round ends, and Smith is quick to get between them as they still want to keep going at it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elliott

Round 2
The fighters toss out a glove touch just before engaging, and Elliott walks into a leg kick and a right hand. Altamirano gets up close, and Elliott manages to force a scramble that lets him dump Altamirano to his back. Elliott looks to pick up where he left off, with erratic ground strikes and no fear of Altamirano’s guard. Elliott places his knee on his foe’s to pry open the guard, and he drags his elbow back and forth on Altamirano’s face as if he were trying to saw a log with it. Elliott postures up after landing some strikes, and he allows Altamirano to stand up so that he can drive several knees to the body. Altamirano celebrates the standing position again by booting Elliott upside the head, and the former title challenger is stung and ends up falling to his back. Altamirano climbs on top of him, and he laces an elbow over the top while Elliott maintains butterfly hooks. Elliott manages to kick off, and he darts forward with a right hand. Altamirano responds with a single, and Elliott drops down for a guillotine choke that has no legs to it. Elliott lines up a left hand, a haymaker from downtown, and he succeeds in blasting Altamirano in the head with it. Elliott takes advantage of this by bowling Altamirano over, and he moves on top even as Altamirano turns to his side in an effort to escape. Elliott settles for controlling position as he looks to move into a more traditional position on top, and he shifts into the guard that closes around him. Elliott grinds his forehead in the eye socket, and Altamirano throws his legs up for something, anything. Elliott ignores this so he can mount some offense, and he proceeds to batter Altamirano until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elliott

Round 3
Elliott practically runs out of his corner to start kicking, and he lifts his leg up in the air to hop forward and kick down with a stomp to the knee. Elliott hops back and forth, springing to the side, and Smith tells to fight. Elliott obliges him by swinging a monstrous right hand, and Altamirano eats it like brisket and strikes back. Altamirano slips a kick up to the head, and Elliott ducks into a subsequent kick and avoids a spinning wheel kick. The kicks from the Texan open him up to grappling, and Elliott exploits this with an easy takedown. Elliott leans Altamirano up against the cage between the corner of the floor and the wall, and he sits in the guard slamming Altamirano with elbows. Altamirano keeps his guard up to not let many get through, but Elliott is busy attacking while Altamirano is stuck defending on his back. Altamirano gets dragged out from sitting up so that Elliott can keep working him over, and Altamirano tries and fails for a high guard to a submission effort. Elliott remains active on top with movement and control, but he lacks offense as Smith grows restless. Altamirano explodes to his seat and up, and Elliott meets him on the way up with a knee that was borderline. Altamirano gets up and releases a head kick, and Elliott takes it on the chin and keeps on chugging. Altamirano strings a few punches together into a leg kick, and Elliott gathers his thoughts and secures a takedown to place the Texan flat on his back. Elliott lands in the guard, and Altamirano closes it up and hangs on to prevent getting struck. Elliott grinds with a few elbows as Altamirano feebly tosses his legs up for an armbar. Elliott keeps on striking right to the bitter end, and he stands and marches away with a frown on his face at the sound of the horn, expecting he will get his hand raised very shortly.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-27 Elliott)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-27 Elliott)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-27 Elliott)

The Official Result
Tim Elliott def. Victor Altamirano via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Tim Elliott

Angelo picks Elliott, citing his pressure, volume, and grappling. He thinks Altamirano's takedown defense is improving but still not good enough. Elliott's ability to keep coming forward and secure takedowns will be the difference. Angelo is confident Elliott gets it done.

"I think Tim Elliott does win this fight um because if Victor off the Murano I mentioned his takedown defense is improving which it is improving but it's still not good"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Tim Elliott

Cody picks Elliott but with reservations. He highlights Elliott's wrestling as his best weapon, but worries that Elliott's stated intention to slug it out could backfire. Cody notes Altamirano's durability and speed, and that Elliott's best performances come when he has personal animosity (like against Espinoza). He thinks the under is an interesting play but is not confident in Elliott's game plan.

Under 3 takedowns for Tim Elliott on PrizePicks

"I will pick I will pick him because the man on a mission is a very dangerous thing but do I feel confident about it Paul like no how could you"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Tim Elliott

Connor picks Elliott, agreeing it's a levels fight. He notes that Altamirano's striking is poor and his grappling is functional but not dangerous. Connor believes Elliott's experience and scrambling ability will be too much, even if Elliott is emotionally affected by his divorce.

Mentions Elliott's divorce and personal issues as potential motivation.

"I would never pick Altamirana to beat Elliott. So I'm not doing it now."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Tim Elliott

Daniel leans Tim Elliott in a three-round fight, citing Elliott's experience and the fact that Altamirano is a slow starter. He notes that if it were five rounds, he'd pick Altamirano, but in three rounds Elliott's early pressure and wrestling should carry him. He acknowledges the outside drama but doesn't think it affects the fight.

"I'm gonna pick Tim Elliott as well"

Half the Battle

Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Tim Elliott

Jacob picks Elliott, believing he does everything a little better than Altamirano. He notes Elliott's gas tank and ability to outwork opponents. Jacob is concerned about Altamirano's power but thinks Elliott's wrestling and pressure will prevail. He also mentions Elliott's emotional state could be a factor but still picks him.

"I think Tim Elliott does everything a little bit better than Victor and showed a great great gas tank in his last fight"

We Want Picks

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Tim Elliott

Elliott has personal motivation and a grappling-heavy style that will exploit Altamirano's questionable takedown defense. Altamirano has a good kicking game but struggles in the smaller cage. Elliott will land multiple takedowns, control positions, and win a decision.

"give me Tim Elliott by decision and I feel pretty good about it too"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Tim Elliott

Paul picks Tim Elliott but is not confident. He notes Elliott's wrestling advantage and Altamirano's suspect takedown defense. However, Elliott's recent comments about seeking a KO and doing wild stuff raise concerns about game plan discipline. Paul also mentions Elliott's age (38) and personal issues. He thinks the under 2.5 rounds at +215 is interesting due to narrative, but he's not fully sold on Elliott's approach.

Under 2.5 rounds at +215

"I will pick I will pick him because the man on a mission is a very dangerous thing but do I feel confident about it Paul like no how could you"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Tim Elliott

The MMA Guru picks Tim Elliott, noting he has a win over Tagir Ulanbekov and has fought the best in the flyweight division, including competitive decisions with top fighters. He criticizes Victor Altamirano for being technically not good, though dangerous with crazy shots. He expects Elliott to outpoint and frustrate Altamirano to a 29-28 decision win.

Elliott by 29-28 decision

"I'm definitely gonna side with Tim Elliott here to out Point Victor outa Murano and frustrate him to a decision win"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Tim Elliott

Zane picks Elliott, viewing this as a levels matchup. He notes that Altamirano is tough but has poor defense and limited technique, while Elliott's scrambling and wrestling should dominate. Zane acknowledges the personal turmoil in Elliott's life (divorce) but believes his anger could fuel a strong performance.

Mentions Elliott's divorce and personal issues as potential motivation.

"I got to pick Elliott here. This is a levels matchup to me."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Tagir Ulanbekov

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Tim Elliott	1	79 of 179	44%	117 of 227	3 of 9	33%	0	0	0:52
Tagir Ulanbekov	0	90 of 186	48%	111 of 212	2 of 10	20%	1	0	4:55

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Tim Elliott	1	36 of 82	43%	44 of 94	3 of 5	60%	0	0:31
1	Tagir Ulanbekov	0	38 of 78	48%	38 of 78	0 of 0	---	0	0:26
2	Tim Elliott	0	23 of 52	44%	44 of 76	0 of 4	0%	0	0:21
2	Tagir Ulanbekov	0	21 of 45	46%	26 of 50	1 of 7	14%	0	1:28
3	Tim Elliott	0	20 of 45	44%	29 of 57	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
3	Tagir Ulanbekov	0	31 of 63	49%	47 of 84	1 of 3	33%	1	3:01

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Tim Elliott	79 of 179	44%	30 of 113	15 of 26	34 of 40	64 of 160	15 of 19	0 of 0
Tagir Ulanbekov	90 of 186	48%	70 of 162	15 of 19	5 of 5	65 of 158	23 of 26	2 of 2

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Tim Elliott	36 of 82	43%	16 of 52	6 of 14	14 of 16	31 of 76	5 of 6	0 of 0
1	Tagir Ulanbekov	38 of 78	48%	30 of 68	8 of 10	0 of 0	34 of 73	4 of 5	0 of 0
2	Tim Elliott	23 of 52	44%	9 of 35	5 of 7	9 of 10	14 of 40	9 of 12	0 of 0
2	Tagir Ulanbekov	21 of 45	46%	18 of 41	3 of 4	0 of 0	12 of 35	9 of 10	0 of 0
3	Tim Elliott	20 of 45	44%	5 of 26	4 of 5	11 of 14	19 of 44	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Tagir Ulanbekov	31 of 63	49%	22 of 53	4 of 5	5 of 5	19 of 50	10 of 11	2 of 2

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Tim Elliott vs. Tagir Ulanbekov

Round 1
It’s the U.S. vs. Russia up now in the flyweight division, as former title challenger Elliott (17-12-1, 6-10 UFC) will try to become the second fighter to beat Ulanbekov (14-1, 2-0 UFC) as a pro. Having laced up his shoes, referee Chris Tognoni is now prepared for what could be a thrilling, fast-paced grappling affair for as long as it lasts. The gloves get touched, and Elliott swings with a spinning back kick that is well out of the way. Elliott turns through to score a leg kick, and Ulanbekov dings him up with two jabs and a one-two. Elliott keeps his hands down, and Ulanbekov cracks him with a right hand and follows it with a front kick. Elliott ignores the strikes to wade forward, throwing unorthodox strikes like stomp kicks to the knee and whipping uppercuts. The American charges ahead and secures a quick takedown, and Ulanbekov fights his way back to his knees. Elliott blasts him in the face with a knee, and it is unclear if Ulanbekov’s knee was off the ground as to whether it was illegal or legal, but it appeared that Ulanbekov’s knee was down. Despite this, we continue, and Elliott shouts at his man to come on and fight him. Elliott blitzes forward, landing punches and low kicks, and evading the strikes with odd, bobbing head movement. Ulanbekov replies with a punch to the chest, and he checks a kick but gets smacked with a left hand. Ulanbekov is much more composed with jabs, but as he flicks one out, the ex-title challenger darts forward and lands another takedown. The Russian is not down for more than one second before exploding back up, and Elliott is quick to chase him down and land another. Ulanbekov sweeps him after a wide scramble, and he gets back to his feet. Tognoni calls time as Elliott sticks his hands out to strike, and he warns Elliott from keeping his fingers outstretched while Elliott protests. The fight resumes, and Elliott lands a front kick to the body and a low kick. Elliott dips a few punches, eats a couple more, and slings a left hook that slides off the side of Ulanbekov’s head. Elliott tries to step in with an elbow, and as he does, Ulanbekov drills him with a few punches. Elliott laughs them off, keeps his self-described movement awkward, and he turns his hips while launching a massive left hand. The strike sends Ulanbekov crashing down to the mat, and he appears to get back up after the flash knockdown only into the hands of Elliott, who takes him down. Ulanbekov powers his way back up, gets popped with another questionable knee when he was standing, and he starts talking to his corner. The wild and crazy round ends in the clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott

Round 2
The gloves get touched to start the second round, and Elliott comes out with a brief swarm of punches. Ulanbekov is energized, and he returns fire with a salvo of his own. Elliott just misses with a huge overhand right, and he windmills a left that follows that blows Ulanbekov’s hair back. The Russian mixes things up with a takedown try, and Elliott sprawls well and pops right back up. Ulanbekov gets off a few right hands, appearing to have started to time the head movement, and he ignores the counters from Elliott to score a hard right hand. When Elliott marches forward, Ulanbekov hits a double that puts the former title challenger on his seat momentarily. Elliott scoots his way to the wall to power back up, and when Ulanbekov tries to secure a mat return, Elliott scrambles to wind up on top. As they both get back up to their feet, Elliott lands a few punches that make Ulanbekov blow his nose out. Ulanbekov drills Elliott in the jaw with a right hand, and Elliott comes forward to clinch. Elliott grabs his foe’s glove and cracks Ulanbekov with a punch from his other hand, and Ulanbekov protests to draw a warning from Tognoni. They both try to set up a takedown after this confusion, and a furious scramble ensues where Elliott is able to take top position and even snag mount for a couple seconds. Ulanbekov fights his way back up, and he lifts Elliott in the air but cannot wrangle him, as the former title challenger circles around to take top position until Ulanbekov bucks him off. They tie up, and start belting one another with short elbows and punches. Elliott grabs Ulanbekov’s glove again and tries to slug him in the face, but Ulanbekov is able to evade the blow and he shoots for a double that plows Elliott in the wall. Ulanbekov holds on tight, not letting Elliott get space, and ignoring when Elliott starts chattering at him. Elliott fights off one takedown, and he throws up a guillotine right when the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott

Round 3
The last round begins with no glove touch, as replays show several uncalled illegal moves that Elliott got away with in the previous round, all while Ulanbekov’s coach Khabib Nurmagomedov is incensed. Dundasso is alive and well in the Octagon tonight. The action starts off with Elliott attacking, working the body with kicks and a few punches. Ulanbekov replies with a single crisp elbow, and he backs off and marks Elliott up with a one-two. A cut opens up on the corner of Ulanbekov’s eye, but it does not appear to be from a punch but rather from when they clacked heads when they were tied up. They clinch up again just long enough for Ulanbekov to work the body with several knees, and Ulanbekov hops back and dives forward with a double-leg takedown. Elliott sprawls, using the fence as his ally, but Ulanbekov lifts his leg off the ground to drop Elliott to a knee. Ulanbekov tries to elevate the ex-title challenger again, to no avail, as Elliott is able to get his feet beneath him to keep himself upright. With his hands clasping Elliott from behind, Ulanbekov gets off several emphatic knees to the back of Elliott’s thigh. Ulanbekov hops on to the back, circling over to get one hook in. As Elliott tries to escape, he leans over and Ulanbekov crawls on to his back to take it and secure a body triangle. From there, the Russian attacks a rear-naked choke, and Elliott grimaces but grits it out. Elliott legally fights the hands, holding on to the wrist instead of the inseam of a glove, and he stops the choke but cannot stop punches connecting to the side of his head. Ulanbekov keeps his body triangle tight, landing unanswered shots, and he pounds away until the final bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ulanbekov (29-28 Elliott)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ulanbekov (29-28 Elliott)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ulanbekov (29-28 Elliott)

The Official Result
Tim Elliott def. Tagir Ulanbekov via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2022 (8 days before fight)

Tagir Ulanbekov

Angelo picks Ulanbekov but thinks the odds are too wide. He notes Ulanbekov is a dominant wrestler but has been taken down and outstruck in the UFC. He thinks Elliott's experience and jiu-jitsu could make it closer. He would make Ulanbekov a -150 favorite, not -300.

"taki er is the pick but if i were the odds maker i would say to gear is like a minus 150 favorite"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Tagir Ulanbekov

Big Brady picks Tagir Ulanbekov to win by submission in the second or third round. He notes that Ulanbekov is younger, longer, and has good grappling and submission skills. Brady points out that Tim Elliott has been submitted five times and has not beaten a high-level opponent in years. He believes Ulanbekov will win the grappling exchanges and eventually submit Elliott. Brady also mentions that Elliott's best wins are against lower-tier fighters, while Ulanbekov represents a step up.

Ulanbekov by submission in round 2 or 3

"i'm going to take onla becca to actually submit tim elliott"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Tim Elliott

Cody leans Elliott as a live underdog, noting Ulanbekov has not looked impressive in the UFC and has cardio and top control issues. He thinks Elliott's unorthodox striking and scrambling ability could cause problems. However, he is wary of Elliott's cardio and the 'Dagestan father's plan' narrative, so he calls it a dog-or-pass.

"i think tim elliott's live"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Tagir Ulanbekov

Daniel Levi picks Tagir Ulanbekov to win, possibly by submission. He criticizes Tim Elliott's attitude, cardio, and recent performances. He believes Ulanbekov's relentless takedown style and Dagestani pressure will wear Elliott down. He notes that Elliott has been submitted multiple times and that Ulanbekov has a mounted guillotine threat. He predicts Ulanbekov will submit Elliott or win a dominant decision.

"i think to be rolling becca i was going to impress a lot of people and i think he's going to come out here and actually submit uh tim elliott"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Tagir Ulanbekov

Ulanbekov has good grappling and scrambling, but his fights are often close. Elliott is a tricky veteran who could pull off an upset if he's in shape. Ulanbekov should win most of the grappling exchanges and get top position, but Elliott's hip tosses and awkward style could cause problems. The over 2.5 rounds is a better play than betting Ulanbekov straight.

Over 2.5 rounds at -150

"i do lean the euler back offside like i said i don't know if it's just my post-traumatic bet disorder even though i've cashed on him in the past he makes these fights very very close"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Tagir Ulanbekov

Paul picks Ulanbekov but expects a dicey fight. He notes Ulanbekov's wrestling is good but his top control is not dominant, and Elliott is tough to hold down. Paul thinks Ulanbekov's takedowns and pace could win rounds, but Elliott's scrambling and volume make it close. He calls it a stay-away but leans Ulanbekov.

"i am gonna go to gear but i'm fully expecting a dice your fight than the line suggests"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Tim Elliott

The MMA Guru picks Tim Elliott as a big underdog over Tagir Ulanbekov, expressing surprise at the odds. He criticizes Ulanbekov's performances, calling him the 'runt of the litter' from Dagestan, and notes he struggled against short-notice opponent Alan Nascimento. He believes Elliott's pace, grappling, and chin will overwhelm Ulanbekov, predicting a close 29-28 split decision where Elliott out-hustles him. He mentions Elliott's experience and Ulanbekov's red flags like razor-close fights and gifted decisions.

underdog pick, odds comment: 'he is a big underdog'

"i'm going with tim elliott over to gerald and beckov he is a big underdog"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Matheus Nicolau

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Oct 09, 2021

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Matheus Nicolau	0	70 of 215	32%	105 of 255	1 of 10	10%	0	0	2:28
Tim Elliott	0	64 of 109	58%	128 of 176	1 of 1	100%	0	0	2:08

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Matheus Nicolau	24 of 62	38%	26 of 64	1 of 4	25%	1:34
1	Tim Elliott	19 of 29	65%	23 of 33	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Matheus Nicolau	29 of 101	28%	31 of 105	0 of 5	0%	0:18
2	Tim Elliott	31 of 56	55%	31 of 56	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Matheus Nicolau	17 of 52	32%	48 of 86	0 of 1	0%	0:36
3	Tim Elliott	14 of 24	58%	74 of 87	1 of 1	100%	2:08

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Matheus Nicolau	70 of 215	32%	39 of 160	11 of 28	20 of 27	62 of 207	7 of 7	1 of 1
Tim Elliott	64 of 109	58%	28 of 63	31 of 38	5 of 8	64 of 107	0 of 1	0 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Matheus Nicolau	24 of 62	38%	10 of 42	4 of 7	10 of 13	20 of 58	3 of 3	1 of 1
1	Tim Elliott	19 of 29	65%	9 of 16	9 of 12	1 of 1	19 of 29	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Matheus Nicolau	29 of 101	28%	19 of 82	3 of 10	7 of 9	26 of 98	3 of 3	0 of 0
2	Tim Elliott	31 of 56	55%	12 of 31	16 of 20	3 of 5	31 of 56	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Matheus Nicolau	17 of 52	32%	10 of 36	4 of 11	3 of 5	16 of 51	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Tim Elliott	14 of 24	58%	7 of 16	6 of 6	1 of 2	14 of 22	0 of 1	0 of 1

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Tim Elliott vs. Matheus Nicolau

Round 1
Flyweights with energy for days come up in what the UFC calls the “featured fight of the night,” as former title challenger Elliott (17-11-1, 6-9 UFC) tries to make it three in a row against Brazil’s Nicolau (16-2-1, 4-1 UFC). Referee Jason Herzog has his work cut out for him in what should be a speedy one from start to finish, and the gloves are touched before they are traded furiously. Nicolau is the first to engage with a heavy leg kick, and Elliott runs after him while lifting his leg in the air to avoid another such kick. He sprints forward, throws a right hand, and backs off to start up his herky-jerky style. Elliott points at his opponent, shouts, and then pump-fakes before landing a left hand. He follows Nicolau around the cage, and they clash heads. Elliott swarm him with a few punches, and when Nicolau falls down to the ground, Elliott fires off a soccer kick that just misses being illegal, and instead connects to the body. Elliott allows his man to stand, and points at him again for landing a successful strike. Nicolau sticks Elliott with a punch and moves away when Elliott comes at him with a standing back fist and a few more unorthodox strikes. Nicolau just comes up short with a spinning kick, and he gets kicked with a push kick to the knee. Elliott hops at him with one leg air in the air, and Nicolau appears a little confused by the antics of his opponent. Elliott, hands down, throws up a head kick and avoids the counter. Elliott charges ahead with a right hand and a diving takedown, and when he in unsuccessful in his first attempt, he manages to ground Nicolau on his second try. The Brazilian pops back up and takes several knees to the gluteus maximus, until Elliott spins around and pursues a takedown. The fighter that some call “Awkward” presses Nicolau into the wire when he cannot trip him down, and the pace slows down significantly as they jockey for position. Nicolau pushes off to break free, and Elliott stands in front of him with his hands at his waist and chin left out in the open. Nicolau pops him with a strike, and he glances with a left hand. The distance is too great for Nicolau to close in on him, but he does score a pair of hooks before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott

Round 2
The flyweights are ready to scrap to start off the second round, and Elliott ducks a few looping punches so that he can go after a takedown. He does not ground Nicolau, but he takes his back and pushes him against the wall. Elliott gets blasted with a right hand, and it shakes him up as he falls towards the cage. His antics and lack of defense could be an extreme liability should Nicolau continue to find his chin, and Nicolau is starting to pick up on his oddball movements. Nicolau marks Elliott up with punches, and he shucks Elliott off of him when the American tries to engage. They clash heads, but no serious damage comes from it. Elliott swings heavily for punches, and he points around to various places on the floor as Nicolau ignores it. The Brazilian tags Elliott with a few punches, and he decides to aim to the body when Elliott moves his head out of the way. Elliott rushes in for a takedown try, clinching Nicolau up and pushing him into the fence. Like earlier in the round, Nicolau stops it and pushes off, where he can work the body again. Elliott’s midsection has turned into a heavy bag as his defense is firmly out the window, as Nicolau tees off on him without taking anything else coming back at him. The takedown entries are unsuccessful as Nicolau ducks out of the way and showboats a little in response. Elliott grins at him, gets punched in the face, and continues to wobble and hop around strangely. When Nicolau drills Elliott in the chin with a right hand, Elliott smiles and nods, but his subsequent takedown try comes up short. Elliott takes a few more body shots, and his elbow drops to defend these strikes. The American marches forward relentlessly, only to take punches and a head kick. When Elliott lands one, Nicolau strings three together and stuffs a takedown attempt as they drop to their knees. Nicolau stays away until the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau

Round 3
They clap hands to start off the last round, and Nicolau comes out firing with a blitzing combination. Nicolau blocks a high kick and watches as Elliott awkwardly hops towards him with his leg in the air. Elliott stings his opponent with a left hand, and Nicolau gives him one back and then another for good measure. Elliott crowds Nicolau and cracks him with a left hand, and he backs off just in time to avoid a home run punch. An effective front kick touches the chin of Nicolau, who avoids three more that come at him one after the other. Elliott punches his way towards a takedown of some sort, and Nicolau works the body only to get pressed into the wire. Elliott begins to knee the thigh while Nicolau is intent on breaking apart, and after a few right hands. The hopping around of Elliott leads to his liver getting pounded by the Brazilian, and when his leg is in the air, Nicolau blasts through to hit a double leg takedown of his own. Elliott closes with a high guard, and Nicolau lifts him up and slams him down to break the grip. A few punches from Nicolau land behind the head, and he adjusts his angle as Elliott turns his head. Nicolau continues to lift Elliott up and slam him on the mat again and again until the tight grip that the American holds is released. Nicolau lands some ground-and-pound until Elliott closes his guard again, and Herzog asks them to keep working. Elliott holds on for dear life, until he doesn’t, and Nicolau lands some shots. The Brazilian punches his way out, but Elliott kicks off and gets back to his feet. Elliott tries to get his foe to throw down with seconds to go before the final bell, but Nicolau largely defends himself and backs away to cruise to what he thinks is a decision win.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau (29-28 Nicolau)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau (29-28 Nicolau)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau (29-28 Nicolau)

The Official Result
Matheus Nicolau def. Tim Elliott via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Tim Elliott

Angelo picks Tim Elliott, loving his grit, pressure, and volume. He thinks Elliott's dirty style and grappling can overwhelm Nicolau. He notes Elliott's recent wins and considers the money line at plus 167. He acknowledges Elliott's tendency to make stupid decisions but feels he's on a rebirth.

Tim Elliott money line at +167 (considering)

"I like Tim Elliott here, and I honestly might grab the money line. When I checked it earlier, it was at plus 167."

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Matheus Nicolau

Cody picks Nicolau confidently, noting Elliott's cardio issues and tendency to fade after 7-8 minutes. He points out that Elliott's wins are against low-level competition who have been cut, while Nicolau is a young, improving prospect with elite training. He believes Nicolau's skills and durability will be too much for Elliott.

"i couldn't agree more man i got to go with nikolao"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Matheus Nicolau

Daniel Levi favors Matheus Nicolau due to his cleaner hands, black belt jiu-jitsu, and 100% takedown defense, which he attributes to training at Nova União. He acknowledges Tim Elliott's improved cardio and scrambles but believes Nicolau is the more talented fighter in all areas. His only concern is Nicolau's chin, but he notes Elliott is not a knockout threat, so he picks Nicolau to win.

"i got a favorite nickel out here i think he's got the cleaner hands i think he's got the better jiu jitsu i think he's got the higher ceiling"

Half the Battle

Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Matheus Nicolau

Jacob picks Matheus Nicolau, calling him the better fighter. He thinks this is a changing of the guard fight. He initially thought Tim Elliott would be the lock of the week but changed his mind after seeing Nicolau's girlfriend is still with him. He believes Nicolau's skills will prevail.

"I think Matthysse is going to win. He's a better fighter. I think this is a changing of the guard fight."

We Want Picks

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Matheus Nicolau

The host confidently picks Matheus Nicolau, calling him the better fighter everywhere. He praises Nicolau's technical striking and BJJ, and expects him to win striking exchanges and potentially submit Elliott when Elliott gets wild. He notes Elliott's awkward style but believes Nicolau can nullify his takedowns and find a submission in the third round.

Nicolau by submission (third round)

"I actually really like nikolao in this spot probably one of my more confident spots on the card"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Matheus Nicolau

Paul picks Nicolau, citing Elliott's improved cardio under James Krause but still limited. He notes Nicolau is on a different level, with wins over rising prospects. He believes Elliott's best days are behind him and Nicolau's youth and skill set will prevail.

"i just think nikolao is is on a different level"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)

Matheus Nicolau

The MMA Guru picks Matheus Nicolau to win by close 29-28 decision. He trusts Nicolau's grappling and believes Elliott's only path is takedowns, but Nicolau's grappling is good enough to defend. He notes Nicolau's strong regional record and power at flyweight.

Nicolau by decision

"i'm gonna go matthias nikolao... i think his grappling is good... i'm gonna go with matthias nikolao winning this one over the three rounds in a very close bout back and forth 29-28"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Jordan Espinosa

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–25) R3 5:00 · UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Mar 06, 2021

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Tim Elliott	0	25 of 44	56%	91 of 120	4 of 7	57%	0	0	13:19
Jordan Espinosa	0	13 of 25	52%	22 of 35	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Tim Elliott	6 of 14	42%	23 of 33	1 of 3	33%	3:57
1	Jordan Espinosa	7 of 13	53%	9 of 15	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Tim Elliott	7 of 10	70%	24 of 32	2 of 2	100%	4:35
2	Jordan Espinosa	1 of 3	33%	2 of 4	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Tim Elliott	12 of 20	60%	44 of 55	1 of 2	50%	4:47
3	Jordan Espinosa	5 of 9	55%	11 of 16	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Tim Elliott	25 of 44	56%	14 of 27	10 of 14	1 of 3	4 of 17	6 of 9	15 of 18
Jordan Espinosa	13 of 25	52%	7 of 18	4 of 4	2 of 3	6 of 15	4 of 5	3 of 5

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Tim Elliott	6 of 14	42%	1 of 6	4 of 6	1 of 2	2 of 8	4 of 6	0 of 0
1	Jordan Espinosa	7 of 13	53%	2 of 7	3 of 3	2 of 3	4 of 10	3 of 3	0 of 0
2	Tim Elliott	7 of 10	70%	4 of 5	3 of 4	0 of 1	2 of 4	0 of 0	5 of 6
2	Jordan Espinosa	1 of 3	33%	1 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Tim Elliott	12 of 20	60%	9 of 16	3 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 5	2 of 3	10 of 12
3	Jordan Espinosa	5 of 9	55%	4 of 8	1 of 1	0 of 0	1 of 2	1 of 2	3 of 5

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Tim Elliott vs. Jordan Espinosa

Round 1
Two exciting flyweights cap off the early preliminary card, prefaced by a battle for the ages between outstanding walkout music choices, when former title challenger Elliott (16-11-1, 5-9 UFC) takes on Espinosa (15-8, 1 NC; 2-3 UFC). Trying to keep up with what should be a fast-paced affair is referee Mark Smith, who bears witness to no glove touch before the madness begins. Elliott blocks a head kick that zooms at him, and he dodges a second one as well. Elliott charges in and gets shoved over, but he recovers himself to press in for a takedown. Espinosa stands him up and gets pressed into the fence, and Elliott embraces the grind as he threatens with trips but cannot set anything up. They separate, and Elliott chops at the calf and kicks the chest, but he blocks a head kick that comes right back. Espinosa scores a big left hand that prompts a takedown attempt from the former title challenger. Elliott cannot secure one, and gets off a shoulder strike and a knee to the thigh, but Espinosa pushes away and separates. Espinosa swings and misses with a big right hand, and when he fires off a head kick, Elliott barely dodges it and bullrushes Espinosa to the ground. Elliott gets a hook in for back control as Espinosa on one knee in a tough position trapped against the fence. Elliott sneaks his way to take full back control, and the only thing stopping him is the cage behind Espinosa. Elliott softens his foe up with several punches to aim for a choke attempt, and Elliott flirts with the choke while pounding on “The Gamer.” Espinosa rolls to his back and Elliott sucks his opponent’s legs out, so Espinosa latches on to a kimura to pursue a sweep. Elliott keeps Espinosa trapped on his back and ties up his own hammerlock, but Espinosa breaks the grip to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott

Round 2
Elliott crashes forward to begin the round, throwing a left hand before diving down into a takedown attempt. Espinosa thwarts it, backs off, throws a head kick, and gets shoved to his back. Espinosa scrambles wildly and kicks off, pulling himself back to his feet using the fence. Espinosa tries to get off a one-two, and Elliott easily drags him back to the ground. Using a half guard, Espinosa keeps a tight leg scissor on Elliott’s leg to keep him there. The former challenger breaks through to sit up and start hacking down with elbows. Espinosa scrambles but gets put flat on his back, and Elliott grinds out his adversary while landing sporadic strikes. A frustrated Espinosa scoots to the fence and to one knee, but Elliott is on him and has one hook in to take the back. Elliott uses his forearm to squeeze Espinosa’s face, and Espinosa leans over and falls into a rear-naked choke attempt. Elliott cannot get his hands locked, as Espinosa breaks the grip, but Espinosa is trapped in defense-only mode. Elliott smothers his foe and starts dropping down punches, and Espinosa rolls to his knees as he continues to take punches to the side of the head. Espinosa tries to use two-on-one wrist control to sweep Elliott, but Elliott easily pulls his arm free and hops on top to elbow Espinosa in the face repeatedly. Elliott starts talking trash from his dominant position, threatening and using big words that get by the censors to intimidate him, possibly using the words "woman beater" as he shouts at Espinosa. The round ends with Elliott grinding his forearm on Espinosa’s neck.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Elliott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Elliott

Round 3
Smith warns Elliott on his language between rounds, and Elliott is amped up and ready to go wild. When the round begins, Elliott advances recklessly and nearly winds up taking a flying knee on the chin. Elliott defends against it and hits a takedown with ease, where he takes a half guard position as Espinosa is already stuck flat on his back. Espinosa rolls to his side and gets punched in the side repeatedly, so Elliott returns to mount and throws strikes from on top. Espinosa tries to give him a few back, leading Elliott to elbow him several times. Espinosa defends off his back with a few elbows, and he slashes the top of Elliott’s head open and starts an immediate flow of blood. Elliott bleeds directly and intentionally into Espinosa’s eyes, blinding his foe and grinding his head into Espinosa’s. Espinosa pulls for an armbar and Elliott stands up to free himself, and he may be slippery because of the massive blood flow. Elliott climbs back on top, where he sits in side control and sets up an arm-triangle choke. The former title challenger continues to rack up control time as Espinosa is practically completely defenseless, as Elliott aims for another arm-triangle choke. Espinosa links his toes in the cage to push off, and Smith stops him from doing this. Elliott smashes his man repeatedly with elbows and punches at the 10-second clapper, trying to finish the fight in a fury. Elliott even attempts an axe kick to the body – stomps to the body are banned in some jurisdictions – as the two go wild in the final seconds. The fight ends with no reconciliation between the two, and we have gone the distance for the first time this evening.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-26 Elliott)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-27 Elliott)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-26 Elliott)

The Official Result
Tim Elliott def. Jordan Espinosa via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-25)

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Tim Elliott

Big Brady picks Tim Elliott, relying on Elliott's wrestling advantage (4 takedowns per 15 minutes) and Espinosa's questionable 90% takedown defense against weak competition. He notes Espinosa has been submitted 4 times and has underwhelming UFC wins. He predicts a submission win for Elliott but admits he doesn't love the pick.

"i'm going to take tim elliott here don't love it but um i'm gonna say he wins by submission"

DFS by the Numbers

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Jordan Espinosa

Daniel picks Jordan Espinosa to win a decision, citing his speed and athleticism. He notes that if Espinosa stays focused for 15 minutes, he should win, but acknowledges that a finish would favor Tim Elliott.

"if jordan espinoza can just stay focused on his game for 15 minutes he's going to come out here and win this decision"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Tim Elliott

Elliott's awkward movement and unorthodox style could trouble Espinosa, who struggles against grapplers. The host likes Elliott's submission threat and predicts a second-round submission, but is not confident enough to bet himself.

tim elliott via submission round two

"i'm going elliott i'll go either first or second round submission"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2021 (8 days before fight)

Tim Elliott

The MMA Guru picks Tim Elliott over Jordan Espinosa. He notes Elliott has fought better competition and shown more grit, while Espinosa tends to fade. He believes Elliott will pressure, clinch, and win by 29-28 unanimous decision.

"i'm picking tim elliott here evens on odds i think he's way better than jordan espinoza"

THE MMA GURU

View all 22 fights