The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale · Apr 13, 2013 · Middleweight · Completed
Prev Fight The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale Next Fight
Age 34
Height 5' 9"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 41
Height 6' 0"
Reach 79.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Kelvin Gastelum
3.67 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
3.53 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
1.01 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Uriah Hall
3.23 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.85 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.54 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
64.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Kelvin Gastelum - Fight History
LOSS vs Vicente Luque
Submission R1 4:08 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 0 9 of 20 45% 12 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Vicente Luque 1 12 of 28 42% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 9 of 20 45% 12 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Vicente Luque 1 12 of 28 42% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 9 of 20 45% 4 of 14 4 of 5 1 of 1 8 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 1
Vicente Luque 12 of 28 42% 6 of 19 1 of 1 5 of 8 8 of 21 0 of 0 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 9 of 20 45% 4 of 14 4 of 5 1 of 1 8 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 1
Vicente Luque 12 of 28 42% 6 of 19 1 of 1 5 of 8 8 of 21 0 of 0 4 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Angelo picks Kelvin Gastelum despite his unreliability, citing his skills, granite chin, and wrestling advantage. He believes Vicente Luque has never been the same since the brain bleed and is fighting up a weight class. He acknowledges Gastelum's poor work ethic but thinks he should win, calling the odds appropriate.

"I have to pick Kelvin here. If you refuse to bet on him, I get it. No pressure. He should win, and honestly, I think these odds are actually pretty appropriate."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Big Brady believes Vicente Luque is past his prime after a brain injury and has shown fear of getting hit, pulling guard and covering up in recent fights. He thinks Gastelum will land big shots and TKO Luque, predicting a second-round knockout. He calls it his hot take of the week.

second round knockout
"My hot take of the week is Kelvin Gastelum gets his first knockout since 2017 against Vicente Luque... I think he knocks out Vicente Luque in the second round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Cody also picks Gastelum, citing Luque's loss of speed and durability. He thinks Gastelum's left hand and toughness will be too much for the fading Luque.

"I think Gaston wins it... either he's going to get knocked out and separated from consciousness or just be one punch behind the punch stats every round and end up losing a tight decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Connor picks Gastelum because Luque is moving up to middleweight and has lost speed, while Gastelum's game is built for the division. He notes that Gastelum's durability and power in the pocket will be too much for a slower Luque, and that Luque's style doesn't translate well to middleweight. He acknowledges both are past their prime but trusts Gastelum's natural advantages.

"We got to pick Gasolim."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Daniel Vreeland picks Kelvin Gastelum, citing Luque's decline after a brain bleed and brutal knockouts. He believes Gastelum's durability and power will be too much for Luque, who may not have the confidence or chin to engage in a war. He also notes that the fight is at middleweight, which benefits Gastelum.

"I got Kelvin as well. One last thing here is this fight's at 185 and not 170. So, Luque I think that benefits Kelvin significantly here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Daniel thinks Luque's chin and confidence are gone after taking too much damage, while Gastelum is still durable. He predicts Gastelum will knock out Luque.

"I'm going to pick Kelvin Gastlam to come out here and knock out Vasante Luca."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

James picks Gastelum confidently, believing Luque is more shot and that Gastelum's durability and boxing will prevail. He predicts a knockout, noting Luque's recent struggles.

"I've got Kelvin Gasselum here quite confidently. Honestly, I think he's going to win this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum's power and durability should be too much for Luque, who has been declining and getting finished. Luque's wars have caught up to him, and he struggles with pressure. Gastelum's boxing and knockout power can put Luque away. However, Gastelum's weight cut is a concern; if he makes weight, he should win by knockout. The line is steep but justified.

Gastelum wins by knockout
"I think we'll see Gastam eventually land those big shots. ... I think he wins by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Paul picks Gastelum, trusting his chin and durability. He thinks Luque has slowed down and taken too much damage, while Gastelum can still take a punch and outwork him.

"I still trust Kelvin Gastelum. It's like if they get into a firefight to be able to take that punch... Kelvin's one of the guys that are uh in my parlay arsenal this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum over Vicente Luque. He believes Luque's best days are behind him and that Gastelum is hard to finish, with good submission defense against Luque's D'Arce choke. He thinks Gastelum's springy step, one-two down the pipe, and low kick will cause visible damage, predicting a 29-28 decision win.

"I'm going to go with Kelvin over Vicente Luque."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Zane picks Gastelum, agreeing that Luque at middleweight doesn't track. He notes that Gastelum's game is a middleweight game and that Luque has lost speed and reaction time. He expects Gastelum to win by being the more natural middleweight and having the power advantage in the pocket.

"I'm not going to pick Vicente Luque up at middle weight."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 1 57 of 117 48% 58 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 64 of 146 43% 69 of 151 1 of 6 16% 0 1 2:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 14 of 25 56% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 24 of 49 48% 25 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
2 Kelvin Gastelum 1 23 of 43 53% 23 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 20 of 45 44% 24 of 49 0 of 3 0% 0 1 1:13
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 20 of 49 40% 20 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 20 of 52 38% 20 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 57 of 117 48% 30 of 81 16 of 24 11 of 12 56 of 116 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 64 of 146 43% 25 of 93 25 of 34 14 of 19 55 of 134 4 of 5 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 14 of 25 56% 4 of 14 6 of 7 4 of 4 14 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 24 of 49 48% 3 of 23 13 of 17 8 of 9 20 of 44 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Kelvin Gastelum 23 of 43 53% 14 of 30 6 of 9 3 of 4 23 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 20 of 45 44% 12 of 35 4 of 5 4 of 5 15 of 38 0 of 0 5 of 7
3 Kelvin Gastelum 20 of 49 40% 12 of 37 4 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 20 of 52 38% 10 of 35 8 of 12 2 of 5 20 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Angelo picks Kelvin Gastelum, calling him a great wrestler and striker with an unbelievable chin, but wasted talent due to poor work ethic. He says this is the easiest matchup Kelvin has had in five years, and he should win the striking exchanges and eat whatever comes back. He notes concern about Kelvin's takedown defense after the Sean Brady fight, but thinks he should be a better wrestler than Stoltzfus. He says the line should be wider but isn't because people can't trust Kelvin.

The line is honestly should be wider and it just isn't because people can't trust him.
"I do think that Kelvin is going to win here, so he's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Big Brady picks Gastelum as the better striker who should keep the fight standing. He notes Stoltzfus is not on Gastelum's level and that a loss would be Gastelum's worst. He predicts a decision win but says he won't bet on it.

Decision win; will not bet
"Gastelum by decision for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Connor picks Gastelum hesitantly, noting that Stoltzfus is glacially slow and has been knocked out multiple times. However, he warns that Gastelum could have a Punahele Soriano-like performance where he fails to impose himself and gets outworked. Connor believes Gastelum's athleticism and scrambling will be key, but he is not confident.

"I'm taking Gastelum, but I can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Despite Gastelum's inconsistency, the host sees this as a fight he should win. He expects Gastelum to showcase his takedown defense and pressure with power striking, leading to a knockout in the second or third round.

win by knockout in second or third round
"Look for him to uh really do a good job with his takedown defense and really put the pressure on with the power striking. And I think that will eventually lead to a Calvin Gassam knockout either in the second …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum, believing he has a clear advantage in technical ability and power. He notes Stoltzfus has been knocked out multiple times and lacks the tools to drop or ragdoll Gastelum. He predicts a TKO win in the middle of the fight, possibly late first or second round, as Gastelum pressures and finishes a tiring Stoltzfus.

TKO win late first or second round
"Kelvin Gastelum getting this one done. ... This is a free TKO win late in the first round, in the second round at some point."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Zane picks Gastelum hesitantly, acknowledging that Stoltzfus could replicate his win over Punahele Soriano by pressuring and outworking Gastelum. He notes that Gastelum is still athletic and durable but has shown a tendency to not consider bad positions. Zane believes Gastelum's scrambling ability and power will be enough, but he can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight.

"I suppose I'm still gonna pick Kelvin Gastelum here. But I can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight."
LOSS vs Joe Pyfer
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 0 33 of 99 33% 34 of 100 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Joe Pyfer 2 57 of 114 50% 58 of 115 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 8 of 20 40% 8 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 2 21 of 39 53% 22 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
2 Kelvin Gastelum 0 11 of 50 22% 11 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 0 17 of 40 42% 17 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 14 of 29 48% 15 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Joe Pyfer 0 19 of 35 54% 19 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 33 of 99 33% 13 of 69 11 of 17 9 of 13 32 of 98 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 57 of 114 50% 44 of 99 12 of 14 1 of 1 51 of 104 3 of 3 3 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 8 of 20 40% 3 of 14 2 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 21 of 39 53% 16 of 33 5 of 6 0 of 0 17 of 31 1 of 1 3 of 7
2 Kelvin Gastelum 11 of 50 22% 2 of 34 6 of 10 3 of 6 11 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 17 of 40 42% 12 of 35 4 of 4 1 of 1 17 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Kelvin Gastelum 14 of 29 48% 8 of 21 3 of 4 3 of 4 13 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 19 of 35 54% 16 of 31 3 of 4 0 of 0 17 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Angelo picks Joe Pyfer because Kelvin Gastelum is unreliable with poor work ethic and weight issues. He notes Kelvin has a granite chin and power, but Joe is a powerful striker with slick BJJ. He warns Joe not to get frustrated if the knockout doesn't come quickly. He thinks the 4-to-1 odds are fair but not a cakewalk.

"Joe Piper should win this fight. As long as Joe is not expecting a quick knockout and then getting frustrated when he doesn't get it, Joe should win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Big Brady likes Joe Pyfer more now that the fight is at sea level instead of Mexico City. He believes Pyfer can win by any method: knockout, submission, or decision. He notes Pyfer's size, power, and black belt in jiu-jitsu, and that Gastelum has been submitted before. He thinks a decision is most likely due to Gastelum's durability, but sees Pyfer as the better fighter overall.

Pyfer by decision most likely
"I like Piper here quite a bit. Kelvin Gastlam is going to be very undersized."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Pyfer. He emphasizes that Gastelum's best wins are against smaller or older opponents, and Pyfer's size and power pose a serious threat. Connor notes that Gastelum's defensive flaws and reliance on his chin make him vulnerable, especially at middleweight where he is not as big.

Odds: Pyfer -383, Gastelum +324. Connor thinks the line is reasonable.
"I think in that context, you really have to pick Pfeiffer here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum can deal with Pyfer's power and then get to his own striking game, blitzing the pocket and landing big shots, possibly mixing in takedowns. His durability, cardio, and strength of schedule will allow him to get the victory over the younger Pyfer.

"I like me some Gastam in this spot as I think he can deal with the big power that Piper brings to the table and then from there he can get to his own striking game where he does a …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

The MMA Guru picks Joe Pyfer by submission in the first round. He notes Pyfer's muscle advantage and underrated grappling, citing his training with Sean Brady and his submission wins. He believes Pyfer will land big shots early, then take Gastelum down and submit him with an arm triangle. He mentions Gastelum's granite chin but thinks Pyfer can finish him.

Finish prediction: first round submission (arm triangle). Also mentioned in PrizePicks: Pyfer lands under 49.5 significant strikes.
"I'm going to take Joe Pyer by submission in the first round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Zane picks Joe Pyfer, noting that Gastelum is inconsistent and relies on his chin, which may be fading. He points out that Pyfer is bigger, hits harder, and has a cleaner striking game. Zane references the Hermanson fight where Pyfer won the first two rounds before fading, and believes in a three-round fight Pyfer's early power will carry him.

Odds: Pyfer -383, Gastelum +324. Zane thinks the line is too wide but still picks Pyfer.
"I'm going to take the bigger, harder, cleaner puncture."
CANCEL vs Joe Pyfer
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

James picks Kelvin Gastelum as a significant underdog, arguing that Joe Pyfer has not proven himself against top competition and that his wins are over faded or lower-level fighters. He notes Gastelum has fought much better opposition, has better cardio, and has been training at elevation in Mexico for a month, including in the mountains. James believes Pyfer's gas tank is suspect and that Gastelum can survive early danger and win in later rounds. He sees value at plus 260 odds.

Value on Gastelum at plus 260. Mentions Pyfer's size and early power but questions his cardio and level of competition.
"I think there's value on Kelvin gum here because it's still a show me spot for Joe Piper he has to show me that he's worthy of a minus 320 price tag."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Jun 22, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 0 112 of 238 47% 123 of 250 4 of 4 100% 0 0 2:47
Daniel Rodriguez 0 127 of 265 47% 132 of 273 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 44 of 93 47% 45 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Daniel Rodriguez 0 46 of 91 50% 46 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kelvin Gastelum 0 37 of 86 43% 39 of 88 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:25
Daniel Rodriguez 0 53 of 113 46% 53 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 31 of 59 52% 39 of 68 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:17
Daniel Rodriguez 0 28 of 61 45% 33 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 112 of 238 47% 77 of 193 14 of 20 21 of 25 105 of 226 0 of 0 7 of 12
Daniel Rodriguez 127 of 265 47% 82 of 214 36 of 41 9 of 10 127 of 265 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 44 of 93 47% 27 of 70 6 of 10 11 of 13 44 of 93 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Rodriguez 46 of 91 50% 25 of 67 15 of 17 6 of 7 46 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kelvin Gastelum 37 of 86 43% 27 of 72 4 of 6 6 of 8 37 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Rodriguez 53 of 113 46% 38 of 97 13 of 14 2 of 2 53 of 113 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Kelvin Gastelum 31 of 59 52% 23 of 51 4 of 4 4 of 4 24 of 47 0 of 0 7 of 12
Daniel Rodriguez 28 of 61 45% 19 of 50 8 of 10 1 of 1 28 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Angelo picks Kelvin but is hesitant, calling him a waste of talent. He acknowledges Kelvin's raw talent, chin, and wrestling, but notes he is undedicated and has missed weight. He points to Kelvin's last fight where he was outwrestled by Sean Brady despite being a D1 wrestler. He thinks Kelvin should win but cannot trust him, especially at -260. He will not bet on Kelvin.

No bet; odds too high for an unreliable fighter
"Kelvin gastam is a giant waste of talent but Talent is the key word he is very good... I'm still going to lean Kelvin I'm going to trust him but I'm not spending you can't spend money on this guy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Big Brady picks Kelvin Gastelum confidently, believing Daniel Rodriguez is on the decline due to fight miles and prison fights. He notes Gastelum's wrestling as a potential path and expects a decision win. Despite the steep -250 line, Brady thinks it makes sense if Rodriguez is truly fading.

"give me Kelvin gastam by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Cody picks Gastelum, emphasizing his southpaw advantage and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Rodriguez's volume striking but believes Gastelum's power and pressure will be decisive, especially given Rodriguez's recent layoff and age. He expects a decision win.

"gum is going to win he is going to likely win a decision"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Daniel Vreeland picks Daniel Rodriguez as a confident underdog. He notes Gastelum's tendency to be in close fights and his lack of discipline (weight issues, love for tacos). He believes Rodriguez has the size, reach, and volume to push a pace and win a decision. He also mentions Gastelum's wrestling advantage but doubts he will use it.

"I'm gonna go with the plus 200 dog here I'm gonna go with D Rod to to win a probably a decision against uh Kelvin Gaston"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Jacob picks Kelvin but is not confident, calling the -250/-260 odds crazy. He thinks Kelvin should be around -125 to -130. He notes Kelvin's last fight showed he forgot how to wrestle, and he might just stand and trade with Rodriguez, which could be competitive. He might have some action on Rodriguez as a dog. He believes Kelvin is the pick but not a betting favorite at those odds.

Might bet Rodriguez as a dog
"minus 250 minus 260 for a guy like Kelvin gastam at this point it's like what are we doing... I believe El Kelvin should be the favorite I would price it likeus 125 minus 130 something like that"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

JP hesitantly picks Rodriguez by decision, citing his reach advantage and ability to keep Gastelum stalled. He worries about Gastelum's speed but lacks trust in Gastelum's recent performances. Brevan disagrees, picking Gastelum by decision, citing Gastelum's wrestling advantage and ability to score takedowns in later rounds. Brevan finds the fight dangerous from a betting perspective but leans Gastelum. JP is less confident and may avoid betting.

Fight goes to decision
"I think I'm going to go with Rodriguez by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Paul picks Gastelum but with hesitation, hoping he uses his wrestling. He notes that if it becomes a striking match, it could be close. Paul points to Gastelum's low output and Rodriguez's volume as potential issues, but believes Gastelum's overall skills should prevail.

"Gastelum will be the pick but I hope he wrestles"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum over Daniel Rodriguez, citing Gastelum's superior boxing and underrated ground game. He notes that Rodriguez's striking looked lousy against Neil Magny and that his wins are over lower-level opponents. He believes Gastelum can mix in grappling and that Rodriguez's age (37) and layoff are factors. He expresses frustration that Gastelum is a favorite, as he wanted an underdog pick, but still goes with Gastelum by decision or submission.

by decision, maybe a rear naked choke
"I'm going to go Kelvin Gastelum here is he an underdog I wonder if he's an underdog here he might be I'd like it if he was he's a [__] favorite [__] off why is he a big favorite man."
LOSS vs Sean Brady
Submission (kimura) R3 1:43 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Brady 0 14 of 24 58% 97 of 130 5 of 5 100% 3 0 9:06
Kelvin Gastelum 0 18 of 32 56% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Brady 0 5 of 10 50% 38 of 53 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:22
Kelvin Gastelum 0 13 of 21 61% 16 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:19
2 Sean Brady 0 8 of 11 72% 51 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:31
Kelvin Gastelum 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sean Brady 0 1 of 3 33% 8 of 11 1 of 1 100% 3 0 1:13
Kelvin Gastelum 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Brady 14 of 24 58% 8 of 16 1 of 2 5 of 6 7 of 15 1 of 1 6 of 8
Kelvin Gastelum 18 of 32 56% 7 of 19 7 of 8 4 of 5 13 of 23 4 of 5 1 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Brady 5 of 10 50% 3 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1
Kelvin Gastelum 13 of 21 61% 6 of 14 5 of 5 2 of 2 8 of 12 4 of 5 1 of 4
2 Sean Brady 8 of 11 72% 5 of 8 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 7
Kelvin Gastelum 2 of 6 33% 0 of 2 0 of 1 2 of 3 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sean Brady 1 of 3 33% 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 3 of 5 60% 1 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sean Brady vs. Kelvin Gastelum
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brady (-130), Gastelum (+110)

Round 1
Welterweights get the call, as Brady (15-1, 5-1 UFC) looks to rebound from his first career loss in a three-round showdown with Gastelum at 170 pounds. Gastelum (18-8, 12-8 UFC) has lost five of his past seven bouts and remains one of the most enigmatic fighters on the roster.
For more on the Kings MMA rep, see “5 Defining Moments: Kelvin Gastelum” in Features
. Montalvo draws the officiating assignment. Gastelum immediately moves to the center of the cage. Brady clinches, works punches and knees to the body and eats a short elbow. He pushes Gastelum to the fence and completes his first takedown. The Daniel Gracie disciple floats to the back, threads his hooks and goes to work on the next. Brady bites down with a body triangle just 90 seconds into the bout. Gastelum scrambles free, takes top position and feeds his opponent punches. Back on the feet, they return to the center of the Octagon. Gastelum sneaks in a right hand. Brady connects with two left hooks and then powers into top position, moving to the back. Gastelum inches toward the fence, but Brady is relentless. Gastelum gets back to his feet, only to get returned to the mat. Brady works his ground-and-pound from behind, then moves to the back in the waning seconds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady

Round 2
Gastelum steps forward in his southpaw stance, fires a few inside leg kicks and fails to manage distance properly. Brady ducks in for another takedown and sets up in half guard. Starting to look like an awful stylistic matchup for Gastelum. Brady climbs to full mount, then back to half guard. He mounts again. Gastelum surrenders his back to create a scramble but finds no escape. Brady shifts back to mount. Probably only a matter of time before Gastelum breaks. Brady hammers away with elbows, floats to the back and shows no regard for his counterpart’s ground game. Fans grow restless, but Brady is running circles around Gastelum here. Brady works from a kneeling mount, with a seated Gastelum underneath him. With 30 seconds left, this has turned into an absolute rout. Brady drags him back to the canvas as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady

Round 3
Brady works from the center of the cage. Gastelum sneaks in a straight left, but Brady closes the distance yet again and completes another takedown. Fans boo. Brady sets up in half guard, then floats to mount and frames an arm-triangle. Gastelum escapes.
Brady now isolates the right arm and threatens a kimura. He cranks on the shoulder and forces the tap. This one was never competitive
.

The Official Result
Sean Brady def. Kelvin Gastelum—Submission (Kimura) 1:43 R3
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Big Brady picks Sean Brady to get back on track, believing his wrestling and control will be the difference. He thinks Brady can take down and control Gastelum for at least two rounds, winning a decision. He acknowledges Gastelum has the edge on the feet but thinks Brady can hold his own. He calls it a close fight and wouldn't bet on either side.

"I'm going to take Shawn Brady to get back on track here I think this is a good fight to do it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Cody picks Brady, citing his superior jiu-jitsu and wrestling. He notes Gastelum's poor takedown defense and offensive wrestling (0 for 11 in last two fights). He thinks Brady can take Gastelum down and control him on the ground. He also questions Gastelum's speed at welterweight and his ability to handle Brady's grappling.

"I think that Shawn Brady's one of the best uh pure Jiu-Jitsu guys in the division now can he tie the other skills together maybe maybe not but yeah I I think that if this fight hits the ground he's …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Lucrative James leans towards Kelvin Gastelum after rewatching tape. He notes that Sean Brady has shown poor striking defense and cardio issues in fights against Belal Muhammad and Michael Chiesa. Gastelum is a good boxer and could hurt Brady. However, he remains cautious about Gastelum's weight cut and how he will look at 170.

"I'm leaning more on the Kelvin gastam side as the the week goes along"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum is moving back to welterweight, where he has looked best, and has shown improved conditioning and training at Fight Ready. He has slick boxing, power, and underrated grappling. Brady is a strong wrestler with a BJJ black belt, but he struggled against Belal Muhammad's range and volume. Gastelum's speed and power on the feet, plus his ability to scramble, should give him the edge. A decision win is predicted, with a potential late finish.

decision win predicted
"I like gastam here as the dog like I think that he is far more skilled all around than Brady"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Paul is willing to side with Gastelum at welterweight, citing his striking advantage and improved physique. He will wait for weigh-ins to ensure Gastelum makes weight and looks healthy. He thinks Gastelum has a massive striking advantage and that this is a good spot to jump back on the Gastelum train.

"I'm willing to side with Gastelum at 170 I'm going to wait until the weigh-ins to ensure that like you know that he makes it and doesn't look like Skeletor"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum, criticizing Sean Brady's performance against Belal Muhammad where he shut down after being clipped. He believes Gastelum's boxing, durability, and finishing ability are superior on the feet. He predicts Gastelum wins by TKO in the second or third round.

TKO in second or third round
"I'm gonna go with Kelvin Gastelum over Shawn Brady... I think if this is on the feet I just like the boxing durability toughness and finishing ability of Kelvin Gastelum."
WIN vs Chris Curtis
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 0 70 of 201 34% 80 of 216 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Chris Curtis 0 83 of 188 44% 88 of 195 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 13 of 48 27% 13 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 30 of 64 46% 30 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kelvin Gastelum 0 20 of 65 30% 26 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 23 of 56 41% 27 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:55
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 37 of 88 42% 41 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Chris Curtis 0 30 of 68 44% 31 of 69 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 70 of 201 34% 44 of 164 21 of 30 5 of 7 63 of 193 7 of 8 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 83 of 188 44% 63 of 161 5 of 8 15 of 19 76 of 172 3 of 6 4 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 13 of 48 27% 8 of 40 1 of 2 4 of 6 13 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 30 of 64 46% 20 of 51 0 of 0 10 of 13 30 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kelvin Gastelum 20 of 65 30% 11 of 51 9 of 14 0 of 0 18 of 62 2 of 3 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 23 of 56 41% 20 of 51 1 of 2 2 of 3 19 of 44 0 of 2 4 of 10
3 Kelvin Gastelum 37 of 88 42% 25 of 73 11 of 14 1 of 1 32 of 83 5 of 5 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 30 of 68 44% 23 of 59 4 of 6 3 of 3 27 of 64 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Angelo picks Chris Curtis and has a moneyline bet on him. He notes that Kelvin Gastelum is a waste of talent with poor work ethic, while Chris Curtis is a clean boxer with solid takedown defense and power. He believes Curtis will win the striking exchanges and defend takedowns. He is confident because Gastelum hasn't shown his best day in years.

moneyline bet
"Chris Curtis is going to be the pick I do have a money line bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Big Brady picks Chris Curtis as the underdog, expecting a close decision. He notes both fighters are durable and have power, but he trusts Curtis's momentum over Gastelum's recent skid. He predicts a split decision and mentions the line has flipped to Gastelum as favorite, making Curtis the dog. He is not confident due to potential judging issues.

"I like I like Curtis to win ... I'll take Chris Curtis to win by like a split uh decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody agrees with Paul on Curtis. He highlights Curtis' takedown defense and notes that Gastelum's wrestling hasn't been effective recently. Cody likes Curtis by decision at +240 as his favorite bet on the card. He points out that Curtis doesn't have much jiu-jitsu, so a submission is unlikely, but a decision is probable. Cody also mentions Gastelum's staph infection and dental issues as potential factors.

Curtis by decision at +240; under 0.5 takedowns for Gastelum on PrizePicks
"Chris Curtis by decision I'll tell you that much"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Chris Curtis. He emphasizes that Curtis is a better counter puncher and that Gastelum is too hittable. Connor also mentions that Curtis has a better chance of landing clean shots that judges will notice, even if they don't hurt Gastelum.

"Yeah, same."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Jacob is locked and loaded on Chris Curtis, calling him a lock. He emphasizes that everyone who engages with Curtis gets knocked out because of his ability to read rhythm and find counter shots. He notes that Gastelum leaves himself open with low hands and gets dropped often. He believes Curtis can knock him out or win a decision.

"I'm locked and loaded on Chris Curtis"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum has been on a tough skid but is only 31 and now training with Fight Ready, known for great game plans. He has underrated wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu, and his durability should hold up against Curtis's power. Curtis is experienced but was out-gamed by Jack Hermansson's range. I think Gastelum's diversity and Fight Ready's plan lead to a decision win, though ring rust is a concern.

"I think this is probably the most favorable matchup that Calvin gaslim has had during this entire slump maybe with the exception of the Ian heinish fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul picks Curtis, citing his superior volume, cardio, and reach advantage. He notes Curtis has excellent takedown defense and has fought bigger middleweights. Paul criticizes Gastelum's recent low output and believes Curtis will outwork him. He expects a 15-minute standup fight and likes Curtis by decision at plus money. Paul also mentions Curtis' experience sparring with Sean Strickland and his ability to find openings.

Curtis by decision at +240; over 2.5 rounds at -220; under 0.5 takedowns for Gastelum on PrizePicks
"sign me up for Action Man"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis to finish Kelvin Gastelum in round three via body shot. He expects a war where both land big shots, but Curtis will dig to the body consistently, wearing Gastelum down. He notes Gastelum's poor shape and good chin, predicting that body shots will be the key. He describes a sequence where Gastelum slows down and Curtis finishes him against the cage.

round three finish, body shot
"I'm gonna say Curtis finishes him in round three"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Zane picks Chris Curtis because he believes Curtis will land the better, more memorable shots. He notes that Curtis is an accurate and powerful counter puncher, while Gastelum remains hittable with his chin up. Zane also points out that Curtis has been getting decisions lately and that Gastelum's prime started early and he has taken a lot of damage.

"I'm going to pick Chris Curtis because I think he's going to land the better shots."
LOSS vs Jared Cannonier
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · Aug 21, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Cannonier 1 81 of 207 39% 91 of 218 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Kelvin Gastelum 0 89 of 246 36% 89 of 246 0 of 8 0% 0 0 2:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Cannonier 0 19 of 45 42% 19 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kelvin Gastelum 0 22 of 57 38% 22 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Jared Cannonier 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kelvin Gastelum 0 24 of 59 40% 24 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Jared Cannonier 1 17 of 40 42% 17 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Kelvin Gastelum 0 15 of 54 27% 15 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:19
4 Jared Cannonier 0 15 of 45 33% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kelvin Gastelum 0 16 of 41 39% 16 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:45
5 Jared Cannonier 0 13 of 34 38% 19 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kelvin Gastelum 0 12 of 35 34% 12 of 35 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Cannonier 81 of 207 39% 51 of 162 20 of 31 10 of 14 79 of 205 2 of 2 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 89 of 246 36% 48 of 187 22 of 36 19 of 23 88 of 243 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Cannonier 19 of 45 42% 11 of 26 5 of 13 3 of 6 19 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 22 of 57 38% 11 of 39 4 of 11 7 of 7 22 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jared Cannonier 17 of 43 39% 10 of 35 2 of 3 5 of 5 17 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 24 of 59 40% 15 of 47 4 of 7 5 of 5 23 of 57 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Jared Cannonier 17 of 40 42% 12 of 33 5 of 6 0 of 1 16 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 15 of 54 27% 9 of 45 5 of 8 1 of 1 15 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Jared Cannonier 15 of 45 33% 9 of 38 6 of 7 0 of 0 15 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 16 of 41 39% 6 of 28 7 of 8 3 of 5 16 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jared Cannonier 13 of 34 38% 9 of 30 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 12 of 35 34% 7 of 28 2 of 2 3 of 5 12 of 34 0 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Big Brady picks Jared Cannonier, citing his reach advantage, power, and striking accuracy. He notes Cannonier is in his prime at 37, while Gastelum seems to be declining. He believes Cannonier's leg kicks and size will be key, and he predicts a third-round knockout, giving Gastelum his first KO loss.

third round knockout
"i'll take him here i think the six inches of reach is going to be huge"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Cody picks Gastelum as a dog, citing his cardio, five-round experience, and wrestling advantage. He notes Cannonier's low volume, hesitancy, and questionable cardio in longer fights, and points out Gastelum has never been knocked out. He suggests betting live after Gastelum loses early rounds.

Bet live after Gastelum loses first round or two; Gastelum has never been knocked out
"i think kelvin gaslin could hustle him up a plus 130 i'm going to take the dog shot here it's a dog or pass main event for me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum is the better all-around fighter with five-round experience and cardio advantage. Cannonier has knockout power but has never been stopped, and his cardio is unproven in later rounds. I think Gastelum weathers the early storm and takes over in rounds 3-5, winning by decision or late finish.

Gastelum by decision (+225); live bet on Gastelum after round 1 or 2
"i'm gonna be taking calvin gaslum and i'm going to be taking gas limits uh via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Gastelum at plus money. He emphasizes Gastelum's durability (never knocked out) and Cannonier's potential gas tank issues in later rounds. He also mentions the possibility of betting Gastelum live if he loses early rounds.

Bet live if Gastelum loses early rounds; Gastelum has never been knocked out
"gun to my head i'm betting kelvin gastle in my plus 130"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

The MMA Guru picks Jared Cannonier to win by TKO, focusing on leg kicks. He notes Cannonier's vicious leg kicks (as seen against Whittaker and Silva) and Gastelum's heavy lead leg and lack of leg support. He predicts Cannonier will chop down Gastelum's legs, then catch him with a straight right as Gastelum lunges. He also mentions Gastelum's quick turnaround and accumulated damage.

TKO via leg kicks and straight right
"i'm gonna go with jared cannon here by tko leg kicks i think will chop down kelvin gastelum"
Uriah Hall - Fight History
LOSS vs André Muniz
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Jul 02, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
André Muniz 0 6 of 26 23% 24 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 2 0:18
Uriah Hall 0 17 of 39 43% 99 of 185 4 of 10 40% 0 0 10:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 André Muniz 0 0 of 8 0% 1 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Uriah Hall 0 7 of 17 41% 29 of 58 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:41
2 André Muniz 0 6 of 15 40% 14 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:07
Uriah Hall 0 5 of 13 38% 52 of 86 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:28
3 André Muniz 0 0 of 3 0% 9 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:11
Uriah Hall 0 5 of 9 55% 18 of 41 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
André Muniz 6 of 26 23% 6 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 17 0 of 0 3 of 9
Uriah Hall 17 of 39 43% 11 of 31 2 of 3 4 of 5 12 of 32 0 of 1 5 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 André Muniz 0 of 8 0% 0 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Uriah Hall 7 of 17 41% 5 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 13 0 of 1 2 of 3
2 André Muniz 6 of 15 40% 6 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 9
Uriah Hall 5 of 13 38% 4 of 11 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 2
3 André Muniz 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Uriah Hall 5 of 9 55% 2 of 6 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2022 (6 days before fight)
André Muniz

Angelo leans toward Muniz, highlighting his dangerous BJJ and clean striking entries. He worries that Uriah Hall may be timid and slow to let his hands go, giving Muniz openings. He notes that Hall has never been submitted but Muniz broke Jacare's arm, and calls the odds wide at 3-to-1, suggesting Hall could be a live underdog.

Odds are wide at 3-to-1; Hall may be a live underdog
"I need to lean moonies here because i think he's going to waste zero time striking immediately look to grapple"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2022 (4 days before fight)
André Muniz

Big Brady is confident in André Muniz, citing his impressive submission wins over Jacare Souza and others. He believes Muniz will submit Uriah Hall in the first round, despite Hall never being submitted. He notes Muniz's suspect cardio and chin, but thinks the fight ends early on the mat.

Muniz by first round submission
"give me andermen needs to win by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
André Muniz

Cody thinks Muniz's BJJ is world-class and he will submit Hall if he gets top position. He notes Muniz's striking is poor and he's been knocked out before, so he prefers the submission prop over the moneyline.

Muniz by submission -110
"I'm actually probably gonna add Moonies by submission to my card right now"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 30, 2022 (2 days before fight)
André Muniz

Daniel Levi confidently picks André Muniz, citing his improved wrestling and submission game. He notes that Muniz has shown blast doubles and submissions, including submitting Jacare. Levi believes Muniz will take Hall down and become the first to submit him in the UFC. He acknowledges Hall's explosive power but notes his low output and inconsistency.

"i'm gonna go with andre muniz to come out here take down uriah hall one time and be the first man in ufc history to submit them"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Uriah Hall

Hall has never been submitted and showed great grappling defense against ACJ. Muniz's cardio looked poor in the Antonio Arroyo fight. Hall has knockout power and could put Muniz away early. The line is too wide; Hall's submission defense and striking give him a live dog shot.

Hall by KO prop; round 3 KO
"i gotta take a shot on a hulk here this line is just too crazy to me"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
André Muniz

Paul agrees with Cody that Muniz by submission is the play. He notes Hall has never been submitted in the UFC but thinks Muniz's BJJ is on another level. He has a half unit on Muniz by sub at -110.

Muniz by submission -110
"I've got like a half unit on Moonies by sub at minus 110"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2022 (5 days before fight)
André Muniz

The MMA Guru picks André Muniz to win by submission in the first round via rear-naked choke. He emphasizes Uriah Hall's inconsistency and poor grappling defense, noting that Sean Strickland took Hall down four times. He believes Muniz's power on the feet and athleticism will set up takedowns, and once on the ground, Muniz's submission game will be too much for Hall.

submission in round 1
"i can just see it so clearly both guys landing some decent shots on the feet uriah hall lands something good feels good about himself starts coming forward andre miniz times the double leg uriah hall gives his back up …"
LOSS vs Sean Strickland
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Hall vs. Strickland · Jul 31, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Strickland 0 107 of 258 41% 122 of 273 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Uriah Hall 0 186 of 428 43% 221 of 472 4 of 6 66% 0 0 7:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Strickland 0 23 of 55 41% 23 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Uriah Hall 0 38 of 129 29% 38 of 129 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Sean Strickland 0 22 of 52 42% 25 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Uriah Hall 0 43 of 81 53% 48 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:01
3 Sean Strickland 0 12 of 27 44% 12 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Uriah Hall 0 18 of 40 45% 26 of 51 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:03
4 Sean Strickland 0 24 of 62 38% 24 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Uriah Hall 0 34 of 83 40% 36 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:35
5 Sean Strickland 0 26 of 62 41% 38 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Uriah Hall 0 53 of 95 55% 73 of 118 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Strickland 107 of 258 41% 56 of 173 33 of 66 18 of 19 106 of 257 1 of 1 0 of 0
Uriah Hall 186 of 428 43% 173 of 414 10 of 11 3 of 3 169 of 400 9 of 12 8 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Strickland 23 of 55 41% 17 of 45 4 of 8 2 of 2 23 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Uriah Hall 38 of 129 29% 38 of 128 0 of 1 0 of 0 38 of 129 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sean Strickland 22 of 52 42% 8 of 28 9 of 19 5 of 5 22 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Uriah Hall 43 of 81 53% 35 of 73 5 of 5 3 of 3 40 of 77 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Sean Strickland 12 of 27 44% 2 of 13 5 of 9 5 of 5 12 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Uriah Hall 18 of 40 45% 18 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 24 0 of 0 8 of 16
4 Sean Strickland 24 of 62 38% 10 of 33 11 of 25 3 of 4 24 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Uriah Hall 34 of 83 40% 33 of 82 1 of 1 0 of 0 31 of 80 3 of 3 0 of 0
5 Sean Strickland 26 of 62 41% 19 of 54 4 of 5 3 of 3 25 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
Uriah Hall 53 of 95 55% 49 of 91 4 of 4 0 of 0 50 of 90 3 of 5 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Uriah Hall vs. Sean Strickland

Round 1
The only bout at UFC on ESPN 28 with ranked fighters, and the only matchup containing two competitors with UFC records above .500, comes in the main event. Four-fight win streaks are on the line as flashy striker Hall (17-9, 10-7 UFC) takes on former welterweight Strickland (23-3, 10-3 UFC) in the middleweight division. A touch of gloves – two, in fact – before referee Herb Dean comes between the strikers, who want to get things done in a hurry so they can
watch the rest of the Bellator 263 main card as covered on our other play-by-play
. Hall starts with a long jab, and Strickland gives him one back that makes Hall wipe his nose early. Hall fires a looping right hand and has a jab land hard on his nose, and he eats another as he moves. Strickland continues to pepper him with long left jabs, disrupting the wild offense of Hall but not landing with a big right hand. As he continues to jab, he follows it with rights until one lands on the chin, and Hall shakes his head. Both touch the other with a few blows, and Strickland’s nose is marked up already. Strickland continues to power his jab out, and Hall is forced to aim to the body while he eats these strikes. Hall loops a right hand over a jab, and he catches Strickland on the way in with a left to follow it. As Strickland continues to stick his jab out, Hall chops down his lead leg hard, but Strickland is not concerned as he keeps it up. Hall rolls and wings a right hand that Strickland takes cleanly, but it does not bother him. Strickland’s volume is well in his favor, and he loops a pair of inaccurate hooks but scores a crisp one-two right down the middle. Strickland connects with a few more punches, and Hall is forced to flail to try to break them up. Strickland’s accuracy is bothering Hall, who is trying to wing haymakers while Strickland boxes him up. Hall stuns his foe with a right hand for a moment, but Strickland stings him right back with a clean one-two. Hall ducks a few punches and shakes his head, and Strickland keeps it on him with punches in bunches. Strickland jabs and jabs again, keeping Hall to largely a defensive mode as Hall is forced to block a head kick just in time. Strickland chains a few punches together, and Hall ducks down and rips the body before coming over the top with a right hand. Strickland gathers himself and scores a few more jabs, and Hall finds his range on the end of a right hook. Hall gives his foe a few jabs back, and he slings a pair of right hands that Strickland is able to roll with. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 2
As Hall sits in his corner, Strickland is off his stool mean-mugging Hall from afar, pacing back and forth. The middleweight contenders touch gloves again, and Hall leads off with a big punch that only partially connects. Strickland gets back in his rhythm with jabs, and Hall walks through a few to crack Strickland with an overhand right. Hall targets the body as Strickland keeps busy with jabs, and he eats a left hand and Strickland puts a few more together to rock Hall. Hall leaps in the air with a knee, and Strickland sees it coming and dodges it to lay into Hall with punches. Strickland mixes things up with a takedown attempt, and although it is easily stuffed, he uses the close proximity to get off a big elbow on the chin. Strickland works Hall on the inside while the two are tied up, with short, stay-busy punches to keep Hall occupied and forcing him to fight off the position. Strickland gets off a solid uppercut that forces a separation, and he plants a jab on the jaw to Hall’s dismay. Hall fires a front kick, and a leg kick come shortly thereafter. Hall backs Strickland off and ignores any oncoming jab to land a few power punches, but eventually Strickland finds his mark with the jabs to slow Hall down again. Hall chips at the leg with a kick and slings a right hand over the top that rings off the temple of his opponent, and Strickland takes a flush jab right after. The two men go jab for jab as Hall appears to be gaining confidence, and he quickly blocks a head kick that comes his way before going low with a kick. Hall walks Strickland down and ducks his punches to land his own, keeping Strickland on his back foot and unable to get his jab off. As Hall walks in to attack, an errant knee with an extended foot connects right to the cup. Hall squats down in pain, and Strickland is quick to apologize a few times. Thirty seconds elapse before Hall can continue, and he is energized to continue as he reaches out with several punches. Strickland stands firm to throw back at him, but Hall buckles his leg with a kick. Strickland’s jab gets timed with a stiff counter, and Hall’s right hand surprises Strickland momentarily. “Primetime” gets kicked in the leg and takes a body kick that he thinks went low, but when there is no pause, Hall spins with a kick. Strickland keeps his composure, bounces off the fence, and jumps up with a knee. The round ends as Hall pounds his foe’s body.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hall
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hall
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hall

Round 3
Hall comes out of his round firing, with long punches and low kicks to fluster Strickland. A Hall body shot gets interrupted with a jab, and the two reach at one another with reaching strikes. Strickland tags Hall with a straight left hand, and he puts a few more jabs together as Hall tries to pay him back every time and comes up short. Hall has a leg kick checked, and he scores a solid left hand on the chin right after. Strickland gets his jab back going again, and the power of it seems to have noticeable results as Hall reacts every time it lands. A big one-two from Strickland hurts Hall, and Strickland uses the momentum to bowl Hall over and rain down punches. Strickland pours it on as he tries to finish the fight, busting him up until Hall reaches the fence and climbs his way up. Strickland leans on him and drags him back down to the mat, and “Primetime” quickly gets back up and has his hands leaning over the fence. Dean warns him a few times for this, and as he does, Strickland takes standing back control before planting Hall on the ground. Strickland covers Hall’s mouth with his hand, keeping his flashy foe grounded while in a smothering half guard. Strickland isolates the left arm of his opponent and grabs two-on-one wrist control until Hall senses it, and he wriggles his wrist free but falls into arm-triangle choke danger. Hall breaks up that posture but Strickland sits up and slashes down with a nasty elbow. Hall turns over and gives up back control, where Strickland quickly secures his hooks and fishes for a choke. Strickland gets off a few punches and rides out the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Strickland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Strickland

Round 4
Hall doubles up his jab, knowing he is down on the scorecards thanks to his corner team of Fortis MMA. Hall wings huge punches, and Strickland sees them coming and evades all of them. Hall sits down on a big leg kick, and he chains it into a left hand. Another calf kick from Hall makes Strickland pick his leg up, and Strickland is there to jab him when it gets set back down. Strickland tattoos his fist on Hall’s chin to great effect, and Hall appears flustered as he cannot seem to get off offense of his own. “Primetime” aims to the body and head, but no strike is enough to slow the constant piston-like jab of his opponent. Strickland snaps the jab out a few more times, and Hall sends one back at him as Strickland triples, quadruples it up or more. Hall sneaks a left hand around the guard, and Strickland is right there to counter him. Hall decides to play a jab game with his adversary, landing every so often as Strickland’s volume is speaking volumes. Four punches come for Strickland, who dances out of the way from everything but a body shot as Hall tries to retaliate. The end of a second jab snaps Strickland’s head back, but it is one-and-done as Strickland puts his fist in his opponent’s face. Strickland swipes with a left hook to mix things up, as the jab is the preferred measure of attack for this prolonged stretch. A left hand from Strickland wobbles Hall, and “Primetime” falls into the cage and is promptly taken down. Strickland leans heavily on Hall, and as Hall stands back up thanks to a fence grab or two, Strickland knees him in the face twice. The punches from Strickland have opened up a cut on Hall’s left eye, who tries to reply with a leg kick. Hall swings for the fences, but they are closer to landing on Dean than Strickland. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 5
Hall is wincing and grimacing between rounds as his left eye is closing, but he is ready to continue and aim for a knockout. Strickland reaches out with a few jabs as Hall crashes forward, prepared to throw bombs. Hall chops at the leg with a single kick, and when Strickland’s guard is up high, he kicks low again. Hall takes two crisp punches on the jaw, and he is no worse for wear as he marches Strickland down and trades with him. The middleweights clinch briefly, and Hall tries to come around the top with a right hand. Strickland wades forward back into the clinch after a brief separation, leaning Hall into the wire as Hall appears visibly frustrated. Strickland allows him to get free, and he lands two punches and gets grabbed. Hall pulls him in and the two clash heads, but Strickland is not concerned as he lands flush on Hall. Strickland slips a right hand to rip with his own, and the final round has turned into a brawl. Hall gets in close and is pushed away, with Strickland shoving him back so he can lay into him. Hall eats several punches as he tries to pay Strickland back, but Strickland’s accuracy and volume are forcing Hall to wilt. Strickland’s forward momentum leads to him pushing Hall into the fence, and he considers a takedown but Hall pushes him away. This happens again, with Hall pushing off to gain some space and take a breath. Strickland gloms back on to him, punching his way into the clinch as he grinds out the last minutes of the fight. Strickland scores a shoulder strike and a knee up the middle, as Hall tries to attack his body up close. Strickland peppers Hall with punches and a stiff knee while not giving Hall anywhere to breathe, and Hall finally gets off with about 45 seconds to go. Hall lets loose with everything he has left, with booming punches that Strickland sees coming. Strickland walks directly into a big right hand that he eats like a steak, so that he can press back into the clinch and ride out the remainder of the bout. Strickland threatens with a takedown, and lands a few punches from up close until the fight wraps up. Other than a close second round, this was largely one-way traffic for Strickland, who should likely earn the biggest win of his career as he looks to bigger and better options. The next event is a pay-per-view in Houston with a sudden interim heavyweight belt on the line. We will be here for it – and we will even have staff in the Toyota Center – and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-45 Strickland)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-45 Strickland)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-45 Strickland)

The Official Result
Sean Strickland def. Uriah Hall via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-45, 49-46)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Uriah Hall

Big Brady picks the underdog Uriah Hall despite acknowledging Sean Strickland is the better overall fighter. He is concerned by Strickland's recent tendency to stand and trade, as seen in his last three fights where he attempted only one takedown. Brady believes Hall's power gives him a puncher's chance and that Strickland's game plan of brawling plays into Hall's hands. He predicts Hall will find a knockout, specifically in the second round.

second round knockout, underdog pick
"i'm actually going to take the dog here i'm going to take the dog and uriah hall i'm going to take a shot on it i'm gonna say he does find the chin of sean strickland at some point"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 28, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Cody picks Sean Strickland based on his high volume striking, strong takedown defense, and recent performances where he landed over 100 significant strikes in short fights. He notes Strickland's improvement since moving to middleweight and his training at Xtreme Couture with high-level partners. However, he is wary of the -220 price due to Hall's one-punch knockout power and the reach advantage Hall holds. Cody believes Strickland will bank three rounds and possibly get a late finish, but acknowledges Hall could catch him.

Cody mentions the fight might not go the distance; if Hall wins it's by KO inside the distance.
"I think strickland at least puts three rounds in the bank and then is able to survive or at some point he's going to be able to catch hall with something break him down hurt him and and put him …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 31, 2021 (fight day)
Uriah Hall

Levi leans with the underdog Uriah Hall, citing his momentum, improved mentality, and one-punch knockout power. He acknowledges Strickland's technical jab and volume but notes Strickland keeps his chin straight up, which could be exploited by Hall's flashy strikes. Levi believes Hall has finally matured as the team captain at Fortis MMA and is putting it together. He thinks Hall can catch Strickland even if Strickland is winning the early rounds, making the +180 line intriguing.

Intrigued by the +180 line; thinks Hall can catch Strickland.
"I'm gonna actually lean with the doggy ryan holla like I like the momentum that he's on right now"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Sean Strickland

Strickland is a high-volume striker with good minute-winning ability. Hall has knockout power and speed, but his output is low and he lost minutes to an aged Anderson Silva. Strickland's defense is questionable, but he rolls with punches well. Strickland should piece Hall up over five rounds and eventually break him. The decision is likely, but late-round finishes are possible.

Strickland by decision +215; Strickland round 3 +1025; Strickland round 4 +1625; Strickland round 5 +2425
"I am taking Sean Strickland I do think that he pieces him up for the majority of the fight... I think he eventually breaks Uriah Hall and eventually finishes him later in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 28, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Uriah Hall

Paul leans towards Uriah Hall as the value side, noting that Hall has a significant reach advantage and is one of the best at creative striking. He acknowledges that Hall often gives away rounds early but has the power to change the fight at any moment. Paul is not confident enough to bet Hall but sees the plus money as the smarter play, calling it a 'dog or pass' spot. He mentions that if he were to hedge, he would take Hall at +180.

Paul mentions hedging with Hall at +180.
"the value side of this pl this uh this play is uriah hall"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

The MMA Guru picks Sean Strickland over Uriah Hall, citing Hall's decline and Strickland's pressure fighting style. He notes that Hall has been beaten by pressure strikers like Derek Brunson and Paulo Costa, and that Strickland's constant forward pressure and alert defense will neutralize Hall's explosive one-punch power. He also mentions Strickland's improved kicking game and willingness to grapple if needed. He predicts a decision win, 4 rounds to 1, with Hall possibly winning one round.

Strickland by decision, 4 rounds to 1
"i'm gonna go with sean strickland here over uriah hall... i think sean strickland walking down uriah hall and uh not giving him space to land those kicks and just keeping a pressure on him the entire time"
WIN vs Chris Weidman
TKO (leg injury) R1 0:17 · UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Apr 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Uriah Hall 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Weidman 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Uriah Hall 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Weidman 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Uriah Hall 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Weidman 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Uriah Hall 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Weidman 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Uriah Hall

Big Brady picks Hall to win by third-round knockout. He notes Weidman's chin is questionable after five KO losses, and his cardio looked poor in his last fight. Hall has power and a good gas tank. He expects Weidman to have early success but eventually get caught. He suggests looking at Hall by KO props.

Hall by KO in round 3
"i'm going to take hole to win by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Uriah Hall

Cody leans toward Hall as a dog, noting Hall's late-fight finishing ability and Weidman's durability concerns. He thinks Weidman's cardio and chin are questionable and that Hall can find a knockout in the later rounds. He suggests a third-round prop for Hall and live betting after round one if Weidman tires. He acknowledges Weidman's wrestling but believes Hall's striking and resilience give him a path.

Uriah Hall by KO in round 3 (+1500), live betting on Hall after round 1
"i almost feel like i want to take a dog or pass type approach to this fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Uriah Hall

Daniel picks Uriah Hall, expecting him to catch Weidman in the second or third round after Weidman fatigues. He notes Weidman's tendency to win the first round but fade, and that Hall has power and a better gas tank. He believes Weidman cannot eat Hall's shots.

"i just really think that uri hall is gonna catch him in the second or third round after probably getting taken down in the first"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Uriah Hall

I'm leaning Hall by knockout. Weidman's chin is a huge concern, and Hall has power. Weidman will likely try to take the fight to the ground, but if he can't finish early, he tends to fade. Hall's best chance is to keep it standing and land a big shot. I like Hall by KO at +250, but I'm not confident enough to bet heavily due to Hall's low volume.

Hall by KO +250
"i'm going to ride hall i'm going knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Chris Weidman

Paul picks Weidman but is hesitant, citing Weidman's wrestling and grappling advantage. He notes Hall's flashy striking and comeback ability but thinks Weidman can secure takedowns and control the fight. He acknowledges Weidman's compromised chin and cardio issues but believes his top control will be enough to win a decision. He also mentions a potential Hall third-round prop as a live underdog play.

Uriah Hall by KO in round 3 (+1500), live betting on Hall after round 1
"i have to go with weidman because why because if he secures takedowns in two rounds i'm pretty confident he can probably maintain position"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Chris Weidman

The MMA Guru picks Chris Weidman by decision, 30-27. He notes that Weidman out-grappled Hall in their first fight and rates Weidman's grappling higher than Antonio Carlos Jr.'s, who took Hall down multiple times. He thinks in a three-round fight, Weidman can sprint with his grappling and smother Hall, though Hall might win the third round. He plans to wait for better odds on Weidman.

waiting for better odds on Weidman
"i'm gonna go with chris weidman here and i'm gonna wait to put my money on it"
TKO (punches) R4 1:24 · UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva · Oct 31, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Uriah Hall 2 60 of 111 54% 61 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Anderson Silva 0 53 of 110 48% 57 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Uriah Hall 0 12 of 20 60% 12 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anderson Silva 0 19 of 35 54% 19 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Uriah Hall 0 13 of 30 43% 13 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anderson Silva 0 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Uriah Hall 1 22 of 43 51% 23 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Anderson Silva 0 17 of 38 44% 21 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
4 Uriah Hall 1 13 of 18 72% 13 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Anderson Silva 0 3 of 13 23% 3 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Uriah Hall 60 of 111 54% 41 of 90 10 of 12 9 of 9 45 of 87 0 of 0 15 of 24
Anderson Silva 53 of 110 48% 16 of 61 18 of 28 19 of 21 51 of 107 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Uriah Hall 12 of 20 60% 6 of 13 2 of 3 4 of 4 12 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anderson Silva 19 of 35 54% 6 of 21 7 of 8 6 of 6 19 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Uriah Hall 13 of 30 43% 5 of 21 4 of 5 4 of 4 13 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anderson Silva 14 of 24 58% 1 of 6 5 of 8 8 of 10 14 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Uriah Hall 22 of 43 51% 18 of 39 4 of 4 0 of 0 15 of 31 0 of 0 7 of 12
Anderson Silva 17 of 38 44% 8 of 26 5 of 8 4 of 4 15 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0
4 Uriah Hall 13 of 18 72% 12 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 6 0 of 0 8 of 12
Anderson Silva 3 of 13 23% 1 of 8 1 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Uriah Hall

Big Brady believes Hall is the better fighter at this stage, citing Silva's age and low output. He thinks Hall should target Silva's legs early and predicts a fourth-round knockout, though a decision is also possible if Hall is cautious.

"give me your eye haul here to win by i'm gonna say a fourth round knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 26, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Uriah Hall

Hall has youth, speed, and athleticism on his side, and his jab is very effective. Silva is 45 and coming off a long layoff, but Hall has mental fragility issues. Hall should win by decision, but the -220 line is not appealing given the risk.

Hall wins by decision
"I do like uriah hall to win this fight via decision... again youth athleticism speed explosiveness everything is on his side"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 25, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Uriah Hall

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Uriah Hall to win by TKO in the second or third round via leg kicks. He notes that Anderson Silva has a history of leg injuries and that Hall has a reach advantage. However, he expresses uncertainty, saying he doesn't trust either fighter with his money, but ultimately believes Hall can follow the game plan of attacking Silva's lead leg.

TKO in the second or third round
"uriah hall wins the fight by tko in the second to third round with leg kicks over anderson silva"
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · Sep 14, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Uriah Hall 1 34 of 79 43% 41 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 22 of 69 31% 81 of 148 3 of 8 37% 0 0 10:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Uriah Hall 0 12 of 33 36% 12 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 13 of 39 33% 31 of 59 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:08
2 Uriah Hall 1 20 of 37 54% 20 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 9 of 22 40% 32 of 45 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:09
3 Uriah Hall 0 2 of 9 22% 9 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 0 of 8 0% 18 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Uriah Hall 34 of 79 43% 31 of 75 3 of 4 0 of 0 22 of 61 1 of 1 11 of 17
Antônio Carlos Júnior 22 of 69 31% 16 of 63 5 of 5 1 of 1 18 of 65 2 of 2 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Uriah Hall 12 of 33 36% 11 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0 11 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Antônio Carlos Júnior 13 of 39 33% 8 of 34 4 of 4 1 of 1 11 of 37 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Uriah Hall 20 of 37 54% 18 of 34 2 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 20 0 of 0 11 of 17
Antônio Carlos Júnior 9 of 22 40% 8 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Uriah Hall 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 of 8 0% 0 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Bevon Lewis
KO (punch) R3 1:32 · UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · Dec 29, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Uriah Hall 1 39 of 88 44% 42 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Bevon Lewis 0 68 of 157 43% 77 of 168 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Uriah Hall 0 16 of 39 41% 16 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bevon Lewis 0 35 of 76 46% 35 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Uriah Hall 0 16 of 36 44% 16 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bevon Lewis 0 27 of 65 41% 32 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:22
3 Uriah Hall 1 7 of 13 53% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Bevon Lewis 0 6 of 16 37% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Uriah Hall 39 of 88 44% 13 of 48 5 of 13 21 of 27 39 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bevon Lewis 68 of 157 43% 27 of 100 4 of 9 37 of 48 56 of 139 12 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Uriah Hall 16 of 39 41% 6 of 23 1 of 4 9 of 12 16 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bevon Lewis 35 of 76 46% 16 of 46 2 of 6 17 of 24 31 of 68 4 of 8 0 of 0
2 Uriah Hall 16 of 36 44% 6 of 20 3 of 7 7 of 9 16 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bevon Lewis 27 of 65 41% 9 of 43 2 of 3 16 of 19 20 of 57 7 of 8 0 of 0
3 Uriah Hall 7 of 13 53% 1 of 5 1 of 2 5 of 6 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bevon Lewis 6 of 16 37% 2 of 11 0 of 0 4 of 5 5 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0
LOSS vs Paulo Costa
TKO (punches) R2 2:38 · UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · Jul 07, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paulo Costa 0 58 of 122 47% 58 of 122 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Uriah Hall 1 75 of 116 64% 76 of 117 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paulo Costa 0 34 of 77 44% 34 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Uriah Hall 0 42 of 69 60% 43 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
2 Paulo Costa 0 24 of 45 53% 24 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Uriah Hall 1 33 of 47 70% 33 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paulo Costa 58 of 122 47% 45 of 102 8 of 15 5 of 5 54 of 118 4 of 4 0 of 0
Uriah Hall 75 of 116 64% 39 of 73 33 of 40 3 of 3 66 of 105 8 of 9 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paulo Costa 34 of 77 44% 27 of 64 4 of 10 3 of 3 32 of 75 2 of 2 0 of 0
Uriah Hall 42 of 69 60% 16 of 37 23 of 29 3 of 3 34 of 60 8 of 9 0 of 0
2 Paulo Costa 24 of 45 53% 18 of 38 4 of 5 2 of 2 22 of 43 2 of 2 0 of 0
Uriah Hall 33 of 47 70% 23 of 36 10 of 11 0 of 0 32 of 45 0 of 0 1 of 2
KO (punches) R2 2:25 · UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · Sep 16, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Uriah Hall 1 44 of 90 48% 60 of 108 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:19
Krzysztof Jotko 1 26 of 44 59% 26 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Uriah Hall 1 39 of 75 52% 55 of 93 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:19
Krzysztof Jotko 0 10 of 13 76% 10 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Uriah Hall 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Krzysztof Jotko 1 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Uriah Hall 44 of 90 48% 40 of 85 3 of 4 1 of 1 15 of 42 15 of 27 14 of 21
Krzysztof Jotko 26 of 44 59% 15 of 32 6 of 7 5 of 5 19 of 33 0 of 0 7 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Uriah Hall 39 of 75 52% 37 of 72 2 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 27 15 of 27 14 of 21
Krzysztof Jotko 10 of 13 76% 5 of 8 2 of 2 3 of 3 10 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Uriah Hall 5 of 15 33% 3 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Krzysztof Jotko 16 of 31 51% 10 of 24 4 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 20 0 of 0 7 of 11