UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento Next Fight
Age 31
Height 6' 5"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 27
Height 5' 10"
Reach 72"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Trey Waters
6.39 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
5.83 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.4 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
85.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Billy Goff
7.51 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
5.02 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
1.75 TD Avg
16.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Trey Waters - Fight History
LOSS vs Sam Patterson
KO R1 3:01 · UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Sep 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sam Patterson 0 25 of 48 52% 25 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Trey Waters 0 18 of 38 47% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sam Patterson 0 25 of 48 52% 25 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Trey Waters 0 18 of 38 47% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sam Patterson 25 of 48 52% 21 of 43 0 of 1 4 of 4 25 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Trey Waters 18 of 38 47% 9 of 23 3 of 6 6 of 9 18 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sam Patterson 25 of 48 52% 21 of 43 0 of 1 4 of 4 25 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Trey Waters 18 of 38 47% 9 of 23 3 of 6 6 of 9 18 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Trey Waters

Angelo picks Trey Waters, citing his toughness, speed, power, and similar reach advantage. He criticizes Sam Patterson's poor striking defense and chin-up stance. He notes that Patterson's length advantage is neutralized by Waters' even longer reach. The only concern is Waters' year-long layoff and potential weight cut issues. He plans to bet on Waters if he makes weight and looks good at weigh-ins.

will bet if makes weight well
"I'm going to pick Trey Waters here. I think Trey is tougher. I think he's faster. I think he hits harder."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Big Brady leans toward Sam Patterson, citing his grappling advantage and submission threat. He notes Patterson's striking defense is poor but believes his move to welterweight helps his chin. He predicts a second-round submission, as Waters was submitted in his only loss.

Patterson by submission, round 2
"I do lean Patterson here. I'm going to take Patterson to win this fight by second round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

The host notes Patterson is in a groove with a three-fight winning streak and is comfortable at 170 lbs. He expects Patterson to counter-strike Waters, shut down his jab, take him to the ground, and use his BJJ black belt to force a submission.

submission
"I think we'll see that continue into this fight as he counter strikes Waters, shuts down the jab of Waters, and eventually takes him to the ground and looks to utilize his BJJ black belt to force the submission."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

The Guru picks Sam Patterson, highlighting his reach advantage and well-rounded game since moving to welterweight. He notes Patterson's finishing potential in multiple areas, including submissions and TKO, and contrasts that with Trey Waters' lack of a plan B. He predicts a submission win, possibly a rear-naked choke, after some striking exchanges.

submission
"I think Sam Patterson is a very good welterweight prospect in the UFC and I expect him to beat Trey Waters and I'm actually going to say he wins it by submission."
WIN vs Billy Goff
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Trey Waters 0 116 of 249 46% 129 of 265 1 of 12 8% 0 0 4:06
Billy Goff 0 96 of 225 42% 107 of 236 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Trey Waters 0 38 of 91 41% 43 of 96 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:40
Billy Goff 0 38 of 78 48% 45 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:00
2 Trey Waters 0 51 of 95 53% 54 of 98 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:23
Billy Goff 0 31 of 84 36% 32 of 85 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
3 Trey Waters 0 27 of 63 42% 32 of 71 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:03
Billy Goff 0 27 of 63 42% 30 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Trey Waters 116 of 249 46% 64 of 176 18 of 33 34 of 40 108 of 236 8 of 13 0 of 0
Billy Goff 96 of 225 42% 88 of 211 7 of 13 1 of 1 94 of 223 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Trey Waters 38 of 91 41% 24 of 68 3 of 10 11 of 13 35 of 87 3 of 4 0 of 0
Billy Goff 38 of 78 48% 33 of 71 4 of 6 1 of 1 36 of 76 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Trey Waters 51 of 95 53% 27 of 66 12 of 15 12 of 14 46 of 86 5 of 9 0 of 0
Billy Goff 31 of 84 36% 29 of 79 2 of 5 0 of 0 31 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Trey Waters 27 of 63 42% 13 of 42 3 of 8 11 of 13 27 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
Billy Goff 27 of 63 42% 26 of 61 1 of 2 0 of 0 27 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Trey Waters

Angelo picks Trey Waters, citing his size (6'5" at welterweight), takedown defense, and striking offense. He notes that Waters defended seven takedowns in his last fight and out-struck his opponent. He acknowledges Billy Goff's well-roundedness but believes Waters' size and power will be too much. He mentions the line movement from Goff being a favorite to now a dog.

"Trey Waters has to be the pick he's minus 155"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Billy Goff

Big Brady picks Billy Goff to knock out Trey Waters in the second round. He believes Goff will pressure Waters, who has a hands-down style and is hittable, and that Goff's power will catch Waters. He notes that Goff is a dog who can come back from adversity, while Waters has a solid chin but can be hit. He expects a knockout and thinks Goff will be the one doing the serving.

"I'm going to take Billy gof to go out there and do the serving and knock out Trey Waters in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Trey Waters

Cody picks Waters, noting his length, volume, and ability to fight at range. He believes Waters can outpoint Goff, who is a brawler with poor defense. Cody mentions that Waters has good cardio and chin, and Goff's wild style leaves openings. He also notes that Goff's takedown threat is uncertain, and if he doesn't wrestle, Waters will piece him up. Cody likes Waters by decision at plus odds.

Waters by decision (+475) is a potential sprinkle
"Trey Waters would be the rifle favor as far as I'm concerned"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Trey Waters

Daniel Vreeland picks Trey Waters, citing his significant length advantage (6'5" with 77-inch reach) and smooth striking style. He believes Goff is too hittable and will struggle to close the distance. He predicts Waters will pick Goff apart and eventually get a finish, possibly under 2.5 rounds.

under 2.5 rounds
"I just think Trey Waters the length the kind of finesse the circling on the outside kind of picking this man apart and eventually getting a finish."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Billy Goff

The host likes Goff's pressure and durability to overcome Waters' height and reach advantage. He expects Goff to crash the pocket effectively, mix in takedowns, and potentially finish. He notes Waters struggled against pressure and grappling in the past. The pick is a lean, as he acknowledges Waters' tough puzzle but favors Goff's style.

"I think gof can make this very competitive and actually pull off the victory in the spot."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Trey Waters

Paul picks Waters, agreeing with Cody. He notes that Waters has a reach advantage and uses it well, as seen against Quinlan. Goff is a brawler who leaves his chin out and has been hurt before. Paul thinks Waters can avoid Goff's power and outwork him. He is comfortable with Waters as a slight favorite.

"I think Trey Waters does have the recipe here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Trey Waters

The MMA Guru picks Trey Waters over Billy Goff, noting that most people are picking Goff as an underdog but he disagrees. He believes Waters' long, rangy style and distance control will be problematic for Goff, who likes to fight on the inside and walk opponents down. He also questions Goff's level of competition and thinks Waters has more room for improvement.

"I'm going Trey Waters... I think his long lanky style is going to be good enough here."
WIN vs Josh Quinlan
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Song vs. Simon · Apr 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Trey Waters 0 50 of 128 39% 50 of 128 1 of 8 12% 0 0 0:54
Josh Quinlan 0 104 of 203 51% 106 of 205 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Trey Waters 0 12 of 28 42% 12 of 28 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:54
Josh Quinlan 0 29 of 40 72% 30 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Trey Waters 0 18 of 41 43% 18 of 41 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Josh Quinlan 0 35 of 79 44% 35 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Trey Waters 0 20 of 59 33% 20 of 59 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Josh Quinlan 0 40 of 84 47% 41 of 85 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Trey Waters 50 of 128 39% 26 of 102 5 of 7 19 of 19 46 of 124 2 of 2 2 of 2
Josh Quinlan 104 of 203 51% 93 of 189 6 of 9 5 of 5 102 of 201 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Trey Waters 12 of 28 42% 5 of 21 0 of 0 7 of 7 8 of 24 2 of 2 2 of 2
Josh Quinlan 29 of 40 72% 23 of 34 4 of 4 2 of 2 27 of 38 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Trey Waters 18 of 41 43% 7 of 29 4 of 5 7 of 7 18 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Quinlan 35 of 79 44% 31 of 73 1 of 3 3 of 3 35 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Trey Waters 20 of 59 33% 14 of 52 1 of 2 5 of 5 20 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Quinlan 40 of 84 47% 39 of 82 1 of 2 0 of 0 40 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Quinlan

Cody picks Quinlan but is hesitant, noting that Quinlan is undefeated and has knockout power, but has never been tested in later rounds. He worries about Quinlan's cardio and the fact that Waters is tall with a reach advantage. He suggests that if Waters survives the early onslaught, he could work his way back into the fight. He also mentions Quinlan has submissions on his record, which could be a factor.

"I'm gonna take that shot on Trey here are the two things that make me just not want to do it one week's notice man"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Josh Quinlan

Connor is high on Quinlan, comparing him to a young Robbie Lawler. He thinks Quinlan's power and athleticism will overwhelm Waters, who has a slick but fragile style. He notes Waters' lack of power and defensive issues, and believes Quinlan will knock him out.

Odds mentioned: Quinlan opened -170, currently -184. Waters opened +142, currently +163.
"I got to take Josh Quinlan here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Quinlan

Paul picks Quinlan and suggests early Quinlan props, noting that Quinlan is a powerful finisher and Waters is on short notice. He is surprised the line is not higher and thinks Quinlan by knockout early is likely. He also mentions that Quinlan has submissions, but the main path is via knockout.

early Josh Quinlan props
"early Josh Quinlan props could be worth a decent look here he's definitely going to be my pick here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Josh Quinlan

Zane agrees, calling Waters' game 'quadruple A' and noting his defensive flaws. He thinks Quinlan's power and pressure will be too much, and that Waters' style is not sustainable at higher levels. He sees Quinlan as a straightforward pick.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"Quinlan is just going to shock the shit out of him."
Billy Goff - Fight History
LOSS vs Ramiz Brahimaj
Submission R1 3:16 · UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · May 31, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ramiz Brahimaj 0 1 of 3 33% 2 of 4 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:59
Billy Goff 0 1 of 1 100% 9 of 10 2 of 3 66% 1 0 1:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ramiz Brahimaj 0 1 of 3 33% 2 of 4 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:59
Billy Goff 0 1 of 1 100% 9 of 10 2 of 3 66% 1 0 1:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ramiz Brahimaj 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
Billy Goff 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ramiz Brahimaj 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
Billy Goff 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0
CANCEL vs Ko Seok-hyun
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 18, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Billy Goff

Angelo picks Billy Goff confidently, praising his well-rounded skills, clean boxing, wrestling, and toughness. He describes Ko Seok-hyun as stiff and powerful but lacking fluidity, and believes Goff's speed, durability, and versatility will lead to a dominant performance. The only concern is Goff's long layoff.

"I think Billy dominates this fight and I think these odds are solid."
LOSS vs Trey Waters
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Trey Waters 0 116 of 249 46% 129 of 265 1 of 12 8% 0 0 4:06
Billy Goff 0 96 of 225 42% 107 of 236 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Trey Waters 0 38 of 91 41% 43 of 96 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:40
Billy Goff 0 38 of 78 48% 45 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:00
2 Trey Waters 0 51 of 95 53% 54 of 98 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:23
Billy Goff 0 31 of 84 36% 32 of 85 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
3 Trey Waters 0 27 of 63 42% 32 of 71 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:03
Billy Goff 0 27 of 63 42% 30 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Trey Waters 116 of 249 46% 64 of 176 18 of 33 34 of 40 108 of 236 8 of 13 0 of 0
Billy Goff 96 of 225 42% 88 of 211 7 of 13 1 of 1 94 of 223 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Trey Waters 38 of 91 41% 24 of 68 3 of 10 11 of 13 35 of 87 3 of 4 0 of 0
Billy Goff 38 of 78 48% 33 of 71 4 of 6 1 of 1 36 of 76 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Trey Waters 51 of 95 53% 27 of 66 12 of 15 12 of 14 46 of 86 5 of 9 0 of 0
Billy Goff 31 of 84 36% 29 of 79 2 of 5 0 of 0 31 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Trey Waters 27 of 63 42% 13 of 42 3 of 8 11 of 13 27 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
Billy Goff 27 of 63 42% 26 of 61 1 of 2 0 of 0 27 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Trey Waters

Angelo picks Trey Waters, citing his size (6'5" at welterweight), takedown defense, and striking offense. He notes that Waters defended seven takedowns in his last fight and out-struck his opponent. He acknowledges Billy Goff's well-roundedness but believes Waters' size and power will be too much. He mentions the line movement from Goff being a favorite to now a dog.

"Trey Waters has to be the pick he's minus 155"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Billy Goff

Big Brady picks Billy Goff to knock out Trey Waters in the second round. He believes Goff will pressure Waters, who has a hands-down style and is hittable, and that Goff's power will catch Waters. He notes that Goff is a dog who can come back from adversity, while Waters has a solid chin but can be hit. He expects a knockout and thinks Goff will be the one doing the serving.

"I'm going to take Billy gof to go out there and do the serving and knock out Trey Waters in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Trey Waters

Cody picks Waters, noting his length, volume, and ability to fight at range. He believes Waters can outpoint Goff, who is a brawler with poor defense. Cody mentions that Waters has good cardio and chin, and Goff's wild style leaves openings. He also notes that Goff's takedown threat is uncertain, and if he doesn't wrestle, Waters will piece him up. Cody likes Waters by decision at plus odds.

Waters by decision (+475) is a potential sprinkle
"Trey Waters would be the rifle favor as far as I'm concerned"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Trey Waters

Daniel Vreeland picks Trey Waters, citing his significant length advantage (6'5" with 77-inch reach) and smooth striking style. He believes Goff is too hittable and will struggle to close the distance. He predicts Waters will pick Goff apart and eventually get a finish, possibly under 2.5 rounds.

under 2.5 rounds
"I just think Trey Waters the length the kind of finesse the circling on the outside kind of picking this man apart and eventually getting a finish."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Billy Goff

The host likes Goff's pressure and durability to overcome Waters' height and reach advantage. He expects Goff to crash the pocket effectively, mix in takedowns, and potentially finish. He notes Waters struggled against pressure and grappling in the past. The pick is a lean, as he acknowledges Waters' tough puzzle but favors Goff's style.

"I think gof can make this very competitive and actually pull off the victory in the spot."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Trey Waters

Paul picks Waters, agreeing with Cody. He notes that Waters has a reach advantage and uses it well, as seen against Quinlan. Goff is a brawler who leaves his chin out and has been hurt before. Paul thinks Waters can avoid Goff's power and outwork him. He is comfortable with Waters as a slight favorite.

"I think Trey Waters does have the recipe here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Trey Waters

The MMA Guru picks Trey Waters over Billy Goff, noting that most people are picking Goff as an underdog but he disagrees. He believes Waters' long, rangy style and distance control will be problematic for Goff, who likes to fight on the inside and walk opponents down. He also questions Goff's level of competition and thinks Waters has more room for improvement.

"I'm going Trey Waters... I think his long lanky style is going to be good enough here."
TKO (punches) R1 3:49 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Aug 26, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Billy Goff 1 40 of 85 47% 43 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Yusaku Kinoshita 0 17 of 53 32% 17 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Billy Goff 1 40 of 85 47% 43 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Yusaku Kinoshita 0 17 of 53 32% 17 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Billy Goff 40 of 85 47% 13 of 47 13 of 20 14 of 18 36 of 78 2 of 2 2 of 5
Yusaku Kinoshita 17 of 53 32% 15 of 48 2 of 5 0 of 0 17 of 52 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Billy Goff 40 of 85 47% 13 of 47 13 of 20 14 of 18 36 of 78 2 of 2 2 of 5
Yusaku Kinoshita 17 of 53 32% 15 of 48 2 of 5 0 of 0 17 of 52 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Billy Goff

Angelo notes that Kinoshita has poor takedown defense and was taken down four times in his last fight, while Goff has excellent wrestling and top control. He believes Goff's pressure and grappling will be too much for Kinoshita, and he has a full unit bet on Goff at +140, which is a big bet for an underdog.

Full unit bet on Billy Goff at +140
"I like Connecticut's own Billy golf to get the win and I have a full unit on him at plus 140"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 21, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Yusaku Kinoshita

Big Brady is concerned about Billy Goff's defensive irresponsibility and tendency to get hurt early in fights. He thinks Kinoshita is dangerous and could land a clean shot that Goff may not recover from. He acknowledges Goff's toughness and recovery ability but believes Kinoshita's power is a different level. He picks Kinoshita to get an early knockout.

first round knockout
"give me kinoshita first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yusaku Kinoshita

Cody picks Kinoshita, noting his power and youth. He thinks Goff will stand and trade, which favors Kinoshita. Cody is concerned about Kinoshita's takedown defense but believes Goff won't exploit it.

"I take kineshita get the job done here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yusaku Kinoshita

Daniel picks Yusaku Kinoshita, giving him a second chance after a debut stunt. He notes that Kinoshita has vicious knockout power and athleticism, and that Billy Goff gets dropped in every fight. He acknowledges Goff's toughness and grappling, but believes Kinoshita's finishing instincts will prevail. He bet 2 units at -150 and is confident, though he admits it's a risk.

"I'm giving Japanese Conor a second chance here I'm chalking it down to a debut stunt"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 26, 2023 (fight day)
Billy Goff

James leans towards Billy Goff, citing Goff's tenacity and ability to come back from adversity. He acknowledges Kinoshita is a cleaner striker and could knock Goff out early, but if the fight goes past round one, he expects Goff to take over and drown Kinoshita. He notes the fight is volatile and does not bet it, but suggests under 2.5 rounds as a parlay piece.

under 2.5 rounds at -250 mentioned as a parlay option
"I just lean more on the golf side"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Goff

The host acknowledges Billy Goff's slick striking and wrestling background, but expresses concern about Goff's durability and Kinoshita's unorthodox karate style. He expects Goff to blend striking with wrestling and win a decision, but is not overly confident because he has been high on Kinoshita in the past. The host notes Kinoshita was finished in his UFC debut by Adam Fugitt.

"I'm actually gonna go with golf here though I feel like he can utilize the Striking to blend in his wrestling behind it and take home a decision victory in the spot not something I feel overly confident in."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yusaku Kinoshita

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Kinoshita's power and Goff's willingness to stand and bang. He thinks Kinoshita's physicality will be too much. Paul is not highly confident but leans Kinoshita.

"I'm with you I'm with you 100 bro"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Goff

The MMA Guru picks Billy Goff over Yusaku Kinoshita, trusting the American fighter's well-roundedness and US training infrastructure. He notes Goff's momentum from a Contender Series win and youth at 25, despite a year layoff due to injury. He criticizes Kinoshita's openness on the feet and exposure in grappling against Adam Fugitt. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Goff, mixing wrestling and striking.

Unanimous decision predicted; mentions possibility of first-round finish by Goff
"I'm gonna have to go with Billy goth I just trust it'll be a little bit more well-rounded because of the infrastructure in the training in the US"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Trey Waters

Angelo picks Trey Waters, citing his size (6'5" at welterweight), takedown defense, and striking offense. He notes that Waters defended seven takedowns in his last fight and out-struck his opponent. He acknowledges Billy Goff's well-roundedness but believes Waters' size and power will be too much. He mentions the line movement from Goff being a favorite to now a dog.

"Trey Waters has to be the pick he's minus 155"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Billy Goff

Big Brady picks Billy Goff to knock out Trey Waters in the second round. He believes Goff will pressure Waters, who has a hands-down style and is hittable, and that Goff's power will catch Waters. He notes that Goff is a dog who can come back from adversity, while Waters has a solid chin but can be hit. He expects a knockout and thinks Goff will be the one doing the serving.

"I'm going to take Billy gof to go out there and do the serving and knock out Trey Waters in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Trey Waters

Cody picks Waters, noting his length, volume, and ability to fight at range. He believes Waters can outpoint Goff, who is a brawler with poor defense. Cody mentions that Waters has good cardio and chin, and Goff's wild style leaves openings. He also notes that Goff's takedown threat is uncertain, and if he doesn't wrestle, Waters will piece him up. Cody likes Waters by decision at plus odds.

Waters by decision (+475) is a potential sprinkle
"Trey Waters would be the rifle favor as far as I'm concerned"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Trey Waters

Daniel Vreeland picks Trey Waters, citing his significant length advantage (6'5" with 77-inch reach) and smooth striking style. He believes Goff is too hittable and will struggle to close the distance. He predicts Waters will pick Goff apart and eventually get a finish, possibly under 2.5 rounds.

under 2.5 rounds
"I just think Trey Waters the length the kind of finesse the circling on the outside kind of picking this man apart and eventually getting a finish."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Billy Goff

The host likes Goff's pressure and durability to overcome Waters' height and reach advantage. He expects Goff to crash the pocket effectively, mix in takedowns, and potentially finish. He notes Waters struggled against pressure and grappling in the past. The pick is a lean, as he acknowledges Waters' tough puzzle but favors Goff's style.

"I think gof can make this very competitive and actually pull off the victory in the spot."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Trey Waters

Paul picks Waters, agreeing with Cody. He notes that Waters has a reach advantage and uses it well, as seen against Quinlan. Goff is a brawler who leaves his chin out and has been hurt before. Paul thinks Waters can avoid Goff's power and outwork him. He is comfortable with Waters as a slight favorite.

"I think Trey Waters does have the recipe here"
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The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Trey Waters

The MMA Guru picks Trey Waters over Billy Goff, noting that most people are picking Goff as an underdog but he disagrees. He believes Waters' long, rangy style and distance control will be problematic for Goff, who likes to fight on the inside and walk opponents down. He also questions Goff's level of competition and thinks Waters has more room for improvement.

"I'm going Trey Waters... I think his long lanky style is going to be good enough here."