UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024 · Lightweight · Completed
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Age 41
Height 5' 9"
Reach 74"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 33
Height 5' 7"
Reach 66"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Carlos Diego Ferreira
4.7 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
3.46 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.82 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
57.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Mateusz Rębecki
5.21 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
4.69 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
3.38 TD Avg
52.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Carlos Diego Ferreira
Moneyline
Caesars +360
KO/TKO
BetMGM +1100
Submission
FanDuel +1500
Decision
BetWay +8500
Mateusz Rębecki
Moneyline
FanDuel -405
KO/TKO
FanDuel +125
Submission
BetRivers +550
Decision
FanDuel +270
Carlos Diego Ferreira - Fight History
KO R2 3:46 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Hernandez 1 30 of 75 40% 30 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 23 of 98 23% 23 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Hernandez 0 12 of 36 33% 12 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 11 of 53 20% 11 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Hernandez 1 18 of 39 46% 18 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 12 of 45 26% 12 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Hernandez 30 of 75 40% 22 of 63 4 of 6 4 of 6 20 of 61 0 of 0 10 of 14
Carlos Diego Ferreira 23 of 98 23% 8 of 56 11 of 35 4 of 7 23 of 96 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Hernandez 12 of 36 33% 7 of 28 2 of 4 3 of 4 12 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Diego Ferreira 11 of 53 20% 3 of 29 6 of 19 2 of 5 11 of 51 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Alexander Hernandez 18 of 39 46% 15 of 35 2 of 2 1 of 2 8 of 25 0 of 0 10 of 14
Carlos Diego Ferreira 12 of 45 26% 5 of 27 5 of 16 2 of 2 12 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Diego Ferreira vs. Alexander Hernandez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-140); Ferreira (+115)

Round 1
Jeff Rexroad is the referee. Ferreira takes the center of the cage in the early going. Hernandez is attacking with leg kicks. A solid jab lands for Hernandez. Ferreira catches a kick to the body and attempts to counter. Ferreira launches a big right hand and Hernandez circles away. A right hand makes Ferreira stumble briefly. Hernandez jabs and Ferreira lands a body kick. Another jab for Hernandez. Ferreira lands a body kick. Lots of movement for Hernandez which is making it difficult for Ferreria to find his range. A front kick to the body lands for Ferreira. They trade and Ferreira ends the exchange with a knee. A straight lands for Hernandez. Ferreira continues to walk Hernandez down. Ferreira lands a front kick to the body. A close opening round.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira

Round 2
Hernandez kicks the body. Ferreira catches and attempts to counter. He gets poked in the eye in the process and time is called. Ferreira doesn’t need much time to recover. A counter left lands clean for Ferreira in an exchnage. Ferreira lands a body kick as Hernandez moves forward. Ferreira just misses on a head kick. A solid right gets through for Hernandez. Ferreira blocks a hard body kick. Hernandez continues his movement based approach, but he’s not landing much. Another straight shot lands for Hernandez. A left hook and a body kick connect for Ferreira. Ferreirra presses forward and
Hernandez drops him with a perfectly-timed counter right hand to the temple. Smelling blood, Hernandez pounces and unleashes a hailstorm of violent ground-and-pound. Rexroad gives Ferreira plenty of leeway — perhaps too much — but after about eight unanswered punches, the fight is mercifully called.
That’s a resounding victory for the San Antonio native, who has won four consecutive Octagon appearances. Ferreira ends the fight with a nasty hematoma on the side of his head.

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Diego Ferreira via TKO (Punches) R2 3:46
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, noting he is hitting his stride lately, explosive, well-rounded, and a good athlete. He says this feels like a great fight for Hernandez, fighting an older guy at home (San Antonio). His only concern is that Hernandez cuts easily, which could affect judging. He says if the odds are reasonable, he will bet on him.

If they're reasonable in any fashion, I will be betting on him.
"Alex is going to be the pick. My only concern is that he cuts so damn easily."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Big Brady leans toward Ferreira because Hernandez fades late in fights. He notes Hernandez is explosive early but has poor cardio and was put together on short notice. Ferreira is durable and has finished fights late. He predicts Ferreira wins by third-round knockout after weathering an early storm.

Third round knockout
"I'm going to say Ferrer wins this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Connor picks Ferreira, emphasizing that Hernandez's inability to handle pressure will be exploited. He notes that Ferreira is a dangerous grappler and powerful striker, and Hernandez's wrestling won't be an easy out. Connor acknowledges Ferreira's age but says if not for age, he would pick Ferreira without question.

"I will agree I'm flighty on it because of age, but if it weren't for age, I would be picking Ferreira. No question."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Hernandez is making a quick turnaround, but the host believes he is up against it. He expects Ferreira to stave off Hernandez's early power and explosivity, then wear him down with pace, pressure, and grappling, winning on the scorecards.

"I think we'll see Fera do a good job in terms of staving off the early threat that Hernandez presents with this power and explosivity and then really start wearing the veteran down with his pace, pressure, and grappling. Look …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Diego Ferreira

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Diego Ferreira as an underdog, believing he will 'fraud check' Alexander Hernandez. He highlights Ferreira's win over Michael Johnson and competitive fights with Gamrot and Rebecki. He argues Hernandez struggles against veteran fighters and that Ferreira is a step above Hernandez's previous opponents. He predicts a second or third round TKO.

Round 2 or 3 TKO
"Carlos Diego Feer is going to beat Alexander Hernandez. ... I'm going to go with Carlos Diego Vega getting this one done. Second or third round TKO finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Zane picks Ferreira, citing his experience, aggressive inclination, and power. He notes that Hernandez is allergic to pressure and struggles when backed up, while Ferreira will pressure him. Zane acknowledges Ferreira's age (40) but believes his style and dangerous grappling will neutralize Hernandez's wrestling and force him into uncomfortable exchanges.

"I kind of have to pick Diego Ferreira. Because that Damon Jackson fight was just last year."
CANCEL vs King Green
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Angelo sees Ferreira as more dangerous and durable at this point, with more ways to win. He notes Green is a cleaner striker but Ferreira has power and BJJ. He is surprised Ferreira is almost a 2-to-1 favorite, as the fight feels closer on paper. He picks Ferreira but is not sure what to do with betting, possibly looking at the over 1.5 rounds.

Maybe over 1.5 rounds
"Diego is going to be the pick. He's a little bit older, but he's durable, he's dangerous, and he has more ways to win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Big Brady picks Diego Ferreira to win by first-round knockout. He is very worried about King Green's decline, citing the brutal Jalin Turner stoppage, his age (38), and poor recent performances. He notes Green has taken a lot of damage and doesn't look the same. In contrast, Ferreira is older but has less tread on the tires, barely fights, and still performs at a high level. He mentions Ferreira's power, citing knockouts of Michael Johnson and Mateusz Rębecki, and thinks he can finish Green by any method.

Ferreira by KO, round 1
"Give me FRA here. And I'm going to take FRA to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Connor picks Diego Ferreira, but with a sadness hedge. He notes that Green is conditioned to leave himself in vulnerable positions and is no longer as capable of surviving. He thinks Ferreira will be more willing to take chances to get in and make the fight ugly, and if Ferreira presses Green, he will get opportunities. However, he admits it's hard to pick and that his choice may be taking the wrong lessons from Green's recent losses.

"I think I'll stick with my sadness hedging instinct. Diego Fajeta. I don't think he's fast enough to make green look as bad as he's looked in his last two fights, but that may also just be me, you know, …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Diego Ferreira

The Guru picks Carlos Diego Ferreira to beat Bobby Green, citing Ferreira's underrated skills and power. He believes Green is prone to getting knocked out, especially in big spots, and that Ferreira can finish him. The Guru notes Ferreira's close split decision with Beneil Dariush and his knockout of Michael Johnson. He predicts Green will have a decent first round but then get caught in the second or third.

Knockout in round two or three; CDF finishes Green
"I'm going with Carlos Diego Fea. ... I think CDF's got Bobby Green and plus Bobby Green, how many more KO losses can we see?"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
King Green

Zane picks Bobby Green, but with hesitation. He notes that Green has been getting stopped dramatically lately, but believes this is a fight Green can still win because Ferreira is not an instantaneous threat like Green's recent opponents. He thinks Green's striking technique and Ferreira's choppy path to the ground allow Green to navigate the fight, though he acknowledges it could be a classic Green loss where he outlands but loses a decision.

Green opened as slight underdog at +135, now +126; Ferreira opened -155, now -146. Zane notes the odds should be close to even.
"I think I'm still going to pick Bobby green. I just, I think this is the kind of fight he can still win where he's just not going to be surprised the same way that he was against Hoofy and …"
LOSS vs Grant Dawson
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Grant Dawson 0 56 of 98 57% 195 of 269 6 of 11 54% 0 0 10:50
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 41 of 61 67% 84 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Grant Dawson 0 21 of 31 67% 43 of 54 3 of 5 60% 0 0 3:11
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 11 of 16 68% 27 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Grant Dawson 0 21 of 39 53% 64 of 90 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:44
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 17 of 28 60% 29 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
3 Grant Dawson 0 14 of 28 50% 88 of 125 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:55
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 13 of 17 76% 28 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Grant Dawson 56 of 98 57% 51 of 91 3 of 5 2 of 2 19 of 47 7 of 8 30 of 43
Carlos Diego Ferreira 41 of 61 67% 31 of 48 6 of 9 4 of 4 31 of 51 6 of 6 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Grant Dawson 21 of 31 67% 19 of 28 0 of 1 2 of 2 10 of 18 5 of 5 6 of 8
Carlos Diego Ferreira 11 of 16 68% 5 of 9 2 of 3 4 of 4 9 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Grant Dawson 21 of 39 53% 21 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 16 1 of 2 16 of 21
Carlos Diego Ferreira 17 of 28 60% 15 of 24 2 of 4 0 of 0 12 of 23 4 of 4 1 of 1
3 Grant Dawson 14 of 28 50% 11 of 24 3 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 13 1 of 1 8 of 14
Carlos Diego Ferreira 13 of 17 76% 11 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 14 0 of 0 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Grant Dawson vs. Diego Ferreira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dawson (-258), Ferreira (+210)

Round 1
A generational gap separates the two lightweights about to set foot in the cage, with the fighters 10 years apart. Dawson (22-2-1, 10-1-1 UFC) is the far younger at 30, while Ferreira (19-5, 10-5 UFC) is the kind of guy who wants to get punched in the face for his 40th birthday. If he wins, one hopes that commentator Joe Rogan will urge the crowd to sing to him, but it is an uphill battle to get to that point. The third man in the Octagon for this fringe 155-pound contender pairing is referee Frank Trigg, who sits back as the fighters respectfully touch gloves. Dawson engages in assuming the center of the cage, and his first strike is a spinning back fist that buzzes past his foe. Ferreira moves to the side, aims a low kick, and chants for “USA” come down in support of Dawson. That excites him to the point of hurling a spinning wheel kick that partially lands, and he ignores any counter to spin and plant his foot on Ferreira’s ribcage. Dawson steps in with a right hand, and after connecting with a few punches, he spins with another back kick. Ferreira answers him with a surprisingly effective calf kick, and he goes to it again only to get caught with a pair of overhand rights. Ferreira returns fire with punches until Dawson shoots in on his hips and takes him to the canvas. Ferreira stands back up and leans against the fence, and he gets kneed legally in the face as he has his hands on the mat but no knees. Ferreira lowers himself to the ground to scramble and get up, and Dawson puts him in a precarious position by holding Ferreira’s leg in the air. With Ferreira leaned over and one hand on the ground, Dawson kicks him upside the head twice in what are now legal blows, and Ferreira panics and drops to the ground. Dawson looks to assume top control, and Ferreira hand-fights to keep Dawson from shifting around to take his back. When Ferreira turns to escape, Dawson follows him over and flattens him out while in full guard. Dawson bucks, sits up and drills the Brazilian with a solid left hand, before laying flat to smother. Ferreira pushes off to force Dawson to stand, and he belts “KGD” in the face with an upkick that appears to hurt him. Dawson lowers himself into the guard as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dawson

Round 2
The fighters bump fists to get going, and Ferreira leads the dance with a front kick. Ferreira follows it with a flurry of punches to get Dawson’s attention, and his forward momentum allows him to take Dawson off his feet. Ferreira attempts a leglock from a strange angle, and he attempts to take Dawson’s back but slides off. Dawson stands up and misses with a back fist, and the two walk towards one another and starting swinging heavy leather. Ferreira catches Dawson with a huge right hand, only to get taken off his feet with an easy takedown. Dawson postures up to strike, exerting full pressure on his foe while dragging things to a crawl. The audience responds in kind, not thrilled by the grind being embraced. When Ferreira sits up against the fence, Dawson sucks his hips out and lays into him with ground-and-pound. Dawson continues to force Ferreira flat on his back, unleashing strikes any time he can find an opening. When Ferreira raises his legs up for a possible choke attempt, Dawson pushes past it and smashes into the Brazilian with a crushing elbow. A second comes shortly thereafter, authoring a loud clacking sound from the elbow connecting with some face bone. The ground strikes continue as the round comes to an end.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dawson

Round 3
At the very first second of the round, Dawson rushes for a takedown. Ferreira fights off the first attempt, and he scrambles to set up an unorthodox leglock when Dawson drags him down. The submission is nowhere to be found, and Dawson rolls him over to his back and gets in the guard. Dawson beats down on Ferreira slowly and methodically, and suddenly, Trigg tells them to get back to their feet and stands them up without a warning. This lights a fire under Ferreira’s backside, who swings for the bleachers. Dawson does the same, and he sets Ferreira to a knee with a huge right hand. Dawson tackles Ferreira to the floor, and he gets right to it with body shots and the occasional one up to the head. Trigg almost immediately calls for more action, and Dawson proves this by posturing up to rain down heavy blows. Ferreira closes his guard and locks Dawson down in hopes of a standup, but Dawson pulls through it and starts pummeling the Brazilian with his fists. The audience is not happy about Dawson’s ground assault, and Dawson shuts them up for a moment by standing up and beating Ferreira down with high-amplitude punches. Dawson backs off Trigg by connecting with further firepower, and Ferreira manages to sit up but gives up his back. Dawson gladly takes it and wraps up the body triangle, his knees red and layers of skin ripped off from his takedown efforts. With seconds to spare, “KGD” attempts a rear-naked choke, but there is not enough time to wrap it up. Time elapses, and the fighters hug it out. This makes it five decisions in a row to start off this event.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (30-27 Dawson)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (30-27 Dawson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (30-27 Dawson)

The Official Result
Grant Dawson def. Diego Ferreira via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Grant Dawson

Angelo picks Grant Dawson to win, expecting his relentless wrestling and control to be effective. However, he plans to bet on Diego Ferreira via 'inside the distance decision no action' prop, believing Ferreira is tough enough to avoid being finished and could potentially finish Dawson. He acknowledges Dawson's boring style but respects his wrestling.

Bet on Diego Ferreira inside the distance decision no action (finish only).
"I'm picking Grant Dawson to win but I will be betting on Diego FAA"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Grant Dawson

Cody picks Grant Dawson but is hesitant. He acknowledges Dawson's excellent wrestling and cardio, but notes his chin has been exposed (Bobby Green KO, Ricky Glenn draw). Dawson has taken down strong wrestlers like Mark Madsen and Ismagulov. Ferreira is a dangerous striker and BJJ black belt who has been taken down many times but often survives. Cody believes Dawson's wrestling will be the difference, but Ferreira's power and submission threat make it risky. He moves Dawson down in his parlay.

No specific prop bet mentioned.
"Dawson's the pick again it's just realistic expectations I've moved him further along than you might expect to see a guy that's minus 270"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Daniel picks Ferreira, citing his elite Jiu-Jitsu and striking advantage. He notes that Dawson is one-dimensional and has been knocked out before. Daniel is concerned about Ferreira's age (40) but thinks his ground game and striking are superior. He mentions that Dawson's losses are exciting because he gets knocked out, and Ferreira could exploit Dawson's holes.

Daniel says it's a doger pass situation and would put a little on Ferreira. He mentions Ferreira's Jiu-Jitsu and Dawson's lack of standup.
"I'm actually going to go Diego for the upset"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Grant Dawson

The host points out Ferreira turns 40 on fight day and expects him to show decline. Dawson is a streaking contender who should implement his wrestling, break down Ferreira, and finish him in the second or third round.

finishes in round 2 or 3
"Dawson who should do a good job in terms of implementing his wrestling approach breaking down Diego faera and eventually finishing him in the second or third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Paul picks Ferreira as an underdog. He notes that Ferreira is a more refined striker with knockout power and a BJJ black belt, giving him multiple paths to victory. Paul points out that Dawson has been knocked out and has cardio issues in later rounds. Ferreira has shown he can survive takedowns and submit opponents. Paul believes Ferreira's chaotic striking and opportunistic submissions will cause problems for Dawson, and at plus money, he sees value.

No specific prop bet mentioned.
"I think you could do a lot worse than Diego frer if you're looking for dog shot this week I'm on it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Diego Ferreira

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Diego Ferreira over Grant Dawson. He highlights Ferreira's scrambling ability against elite grapplers like Gamrot and Dariush, and his power in his hands with nasty knockout ability. He notes Ferreira's recent momentum, including a win over Rebecki and a knockout of Michael Johnson. He worries about Dawson if he can't get his grappling going, and believes Ferreira will win.

"I am finally going to pick Carlos Diego FAA to win a fight I've done it before on rare occasion but I think I'm going to pick him to win Grant Dawson is reliant on grappling"
TKO (punches) R3 4:51 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 123 of 241 51% 151 of 272 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:12
Mateusz Rębecki 1 52 of 137 37% 60 of 146 4 of 5 80% 0 0 2:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 21 of 65 32% 28 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mateusz Rębecki 1 30 of 60 50% 35 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
2 Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 40 of 79 50% 49 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:25
Mateusz Rębecki 0 16 of 48 33% 19 of 51 3 of 4 75% 0 0 0:55
3 Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 62 of 97 63% 74 of 111 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:47
Mateusz Rębecki 0 6 of 29 20% 6 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Diego Ferreira 123 of 241 51% 94 of 189 28 of 51 1 of 1 94 of 203 0 of 1 29 of 37
Mateusz Rębecki 52 of 137 37% 34 of 109 11 of 21 7 of 7 46 of 129 0 of 0 6 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Diego Ferreira 21 of 65 32% 15 of 51 6 of 14 0 of 0 21 of 64 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 30 of 60 50% 21 of 51 7 of 7 2 of 2 24 of 52 0 of 0 6 of 8
2 Carlos Diego Ferreira 40 of 79 50% 31 of 61 8 of 17 1 of 1 38 of 77 0 of 0 2 of 2
Mateusz Rębecki 16 of 48 33% 12 of 39 1 of 6 3 of 3 16 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Carlos Diego Ferreira 62 of 97 63% 48 of 77 14 of 20 0 of 0 35 of 62 0 of 0 27 of 35
Mateusz Rębecki 6 of 29 20% 1 of 19 3 of 8 2 of 2 6 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Diego Ferreira vs. Mateusz Rebecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rebecki (-310), Ferreira (+250)

Round 1
Momentum is a powerful tool. Once on a solid six-fight win streak, Ferreira (18-5, 9-5 UFC) has since dropped three of four and now stares down his 40th birthday at the beginning of next year. Eight years younger and with his own 16-fight victorious stretch in tow, Rebecki (19-1, 3-0 UFC) has it going for him. Whether the torch is passed or the older man can get it done, referee Gary Copeland will keep tabs on the lightweight contest. The sportsmen gladly bump their fists together in eager anticipation of inflicting bodily harm on one another. Rebecki surges forward immediately, throwing caution to the wind swinging fists. Ferreira stays composed and prods out with front kicks, and he dips away from the power shots that fly past him. Rebecki continues attacking relentlessly, and he knocks Ferreira to his seat momentarily courtesy of fierce right hand. The Brazilian jumps right back up, and he keeps Rebecki honest with front kicks and a solid body kick. Ferreira lands with a left and a right, and a head kick gets Rebecki’s attention. He throws another high kick, and Rebecki crowds him more. Ferreira sneaks in a left hand as Rebecki walks forward with impunity, only to be met with three flush shots on the jaw. Rebecki strings three punches together, and Ferreira attacks the body with his foot. Ferreira comes up short on a head kick, and Rebecki buzzes his hair with an overhand right. The two take turns blasting one another, and Rebecki gets the better of an exchange with a solid right hand that appears to hurt the Brazilian. Ferreira fires back with bad intentions, and his head kick comes increasingly close to landing cleanly. Rebecki jabs his way into offense, and Ferreira answers them with a heavy body kick that makes Rebecki shake his head. Rebecki leans forward and when he attacks, his head smacks into Ferreira’s. Ferreira wipes his head, and Copeland notes the head clash. Rebecki unloads a left hand that knocks Ferreira clean off his feet, and he dives down into the guard in hopes of finishing the job. Rebecki gets slowed down by the active guard of his opponent, and he cannot pass guard or land much of note while Ferreira clears his head. The round ends with Rebecki on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 2
The fighters tap hands together to open the round, and Rebecki says hello with a body kick and a powerful left hand. Ferreira drops to the mat, and he bounces back up and stings Rebecki with a left hook of his own. The Polish fighter has a foot bounce off the cup when kicking, and he apologizes as Ferreira signals he is ok. Rebecki ducks a right hand and shoots with a double, driving through the hips and putting Ferreira on his back. Ferreira hits the mat and threatens with a triangle choke, and his legs allow him to sweep and throw Rebecki off of him. Rebecki loads up on a big left hand that misses the mark, and Ferreira follows him with three punches up top while Rebecki’s eyes are swelling up fast. Ferreira jabs and absorbs a left hand on the nose that makes him tweak it to check if it is damaged. Rebecki lurches forward with a series of rangy punches, and he gets backed off as a high kick whizzes past his head. Rebecki bulldozes forward in pursuit of a takedown, and he manages to put the Brazilian on his seat for a moment. Ferreira climbs back up and works his jab, and he slips the most dangerous blows coming at him so that he can counter with three of his own. Ferreira flicks out jabs and a head kick, and he backs the Polish fighter off with body shots chained into punches in the head. The jab has split open the side of Rebecki’s eye, and Ferreira releases a number of punches to the swelling and bloody face. Copeland calls time and brings in the doctor, and Rebecki is cleared quickly and gets back to it. Ferreira drills his man in the head with a combination of punches ending with a head kick, and Rebecki catches it and tackles Ferriera to the floor. Ferreira scrambles to work his way up, and he turns the tables and drags Rebecki down from behind. The Brazilian climbs into full mount and he sits down on an arm-triangle choke, but time expires before he can get the tap.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira

Round 3
The lightweights touch ‘em up to begin, and Ferreira leads the dance with a few punches up top and a front kick. Rebecki swings back, and Ferreira is the fresher and more accurate man of the two as he lands cleaner. Ferreira looks for his jab and kicks the body, and he checks Rebecki’s chin with a one-two. Ferreira powers ahead with another short combo, and he lines up several head kicks that get blocked but have an impact. Rebecki loads up on a left hand, and Ferreira stands firm and lets him have it with a swarm of punches that stagger him. Rebecki takes a breath and kicks the lead leg, and he gets driven back with a straight right hand. Ferreira times Rebecki ducking down for a level change with an uppercut, and he chews up the midsection with power shots. Ferreira walks through power punches from the Polish fighter, and he gets taken down and turns the corner to stand back up. Ferreira goes after Rebecki’s leg to sweep him and turn him over, and he finds his way on top and slides straight into mount. Ferreira bombards Rebecki with punches and elbows, and Rebecki twists and turns in any effort to escape. Ferreira sits on him awkwardly and works Rebecki over with his fists, until Rebecki muscles his way to his knees. Ferreira drags his man down and moves back to mount, and he gets going with a number of elbows as Copeland is watching closely. Copeland asks for Rebecki to fight back, and Rebecki sits up to protect himself from further damage. Rebecki somehow slides out the back door, and both men get back to their feet with a little under a minute to go. Ferreira jabs the body with a kick, and he continues to aim strikes to the midsection. Ferreira knocks Rebecki to the wall with a one-two, and he shoots for an easy takedown and throws Rebecki to the mat so he can hop into mount.
Ferreira postures up and drills Rebecki with punches and hammerfists. Ferreira keeps striking, sensing the finish might be right around the corner, and Copeland waves the fight off to save Rebecki from any further harm.
The Polish fighter’s long win streak is now a thing of the past, and the shellacking from “CDF” has made him nearly unrecognizable. This is a mighty comeback performance for the 39-year-old, who survived a tough first round and put away a man that came into this bout the winner of his last 16.

The Official Result
Diego Ferreira def. Mateusz Rebecki R3 4:51 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Angelo picks Mateusz Rębecki confidently, citing his relentless grappling, power, and cardio. He notes Rębecki marches forward, throws heavy punches, and dives at legs for takedowns. He acknowledges Diego Ferreira's BJJ and power but believes Rębecki is durable enough to eat a big shot and impose his wrestling. He expects the line to move further in Rębecki's favor.

"I got to go matal rebecky all day long all day long very confident in him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Big Brady picks Mateusz Rębecki to break down Carlos Diego Ferreira and finish him in the third round by knockout. He notes that Ferreira is 39 years old and past his prime, while Rębecki is well-rounded with good striking, power, wrestling, and submission game. He struggles to see a path to victory for Ferreira, as Rębecki can dictate where the fight takes place and has vicious striking.

"give me recki to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Cody picks Rębecki, highlighting his youth, wrestling, and well-rounded game. He notes that Ferreira has a clear path to victory for opponents: wrestle him, tire him out, and avoid submissions. Cody points out that Ferreira has lost to wrestlers like Gamrot, Gillespie, and Dariush, and at 39 with a layoff, he is vulnerable. Rębecki is a strong Polish grappler who should follow the same blueprint. Cody also mentions that Rębecki's record is not fraudulent, as he has beaten quality opponents on the regional scene.

"rebecky minus 400 as it continues to grow you're going to run into some banana peel pricing but yeah no he's the pick"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Daniel Vreeland picks Mateusz Rębecki, calling it an honorable passing of the torch. He respects Ferreira but believes Rębecki is a legitimate prospect who deserves the top 15 spot. He notes that Rębecki's only criticism came from his UFC debut where he dominated but had one moment of adversity, which he thinks is overblown.

"This is going to be an honorable passing of the torch."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

The host confidently picks Rębecki due to his pressure, pace, and grappling, expecting him to overwhelm the 39-year-old Ferreira. He notes Ferreira's power and BJJ but believes Rębecki's youth and strength will be decisive. He predicts a decision win for Rębecki, as Ferreira should show enough resistance to avoid a finish. The pick is confident, though he acknowledges this is Rębecki's toughest test.

"I'm going to go roesy and roesy by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Paul picks Rębecki, agreeing with Cody that Ferreira's losses have come against top-tier wrestlers. He notes that Ferreira is a tough test but Rębecki is a finished product ready to contend. Paul mentions that Rębecki is a BJJ black belt and should be able to handle Ferreira's ground game. He expects Rębecki to win but notes the line is accurate with little value.

"I expect rebecky to win on Saturday night"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Rębecki over Carlos Diego Ferreira, calling Rębecki a 'tank' and 'Bruiser.' He highlights Rębecki's wrestling and ability to ragdoll opponents, referencing his win over Loik Radzhabov. He acknowledges Ferreira is a tricky test but believes Rębecki is a class above as a prospect.

"I'm going with my man matus rebecky... he wins this one."
KO (punch) R2 1:50 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · May 20, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Diego Ferreira 1 30 of 71 42% 30 of 71 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Michael Johnson 0 32 of 58 55% 32 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 24 of 55 43% 24 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 27 of 46 58% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carlos Diego Ferreira 1 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Michael Johnson 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Diego Ferreira 30 of 71 42% 17 of 46 10 of 21 3 of 4 29 of 70 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michael Johnson 32 of 58 55% 13 of 34 17 of 20 2 of 4 32 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Diego Ferreira 24 of 55 43% 13 of 37 8 of 14 3 of 4 24 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 27 of 46 58% 12 of 29 13 of 14 2 of 3 27 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carlos Diego Ferreira 6 of 16 37% 4 of 9 2 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michael Johnson 5 of 12 41% 1 of 5 4 of 6 0 of 1 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Michael Johnson

Angelo picks Michael Johnson as an underdog, arguing that Johnson is the younger fighter (36 vs 38) and has fought tougher competition. He believes Johnson is the better striker with solid takedown defense and BJJ defense, and that Ferreira's three-fight skid is misleading because he lost to elite grapplers. He expects a close fight but favors Johnson's experience and IQ.

"I like Michael Johnson as The Underdog in this spot I fully expect this to be a dog fight it should be close but I don't want to hear any narrative about how old Michael Johnson is because Diego's even …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Michael Johnson

Big Brady picks Michael Johnson to win by decision as an underdog. He notes Johnson has good takedown defense and should be able to keep the fight standing, where he is the better striker. He is concerned about Ferreira's long layoff and age (38), and believes Johnson can outpoint him. However, he admits trusting Johnson with money is something he hasn't done in a long time.

decision
"give me Michael Johnson to pull off the upset but trusting Michael Johnson with my money is not something I've done in a very long time"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Cody acknowledges Ferreira's grappling advantage and past success, but is concerned about his age (38), year-and-a-half layoff, and three-fight losing streak. He thinks Ferreira can win if he uses his wrestling, but is not confident given the unknowns.

"I'm just going to take Carlos Jagger Pharaoh but again how could you feel good about this."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Connor also picks Ferreira, agreeing that his grappling pressure will be too much for Johnson. He notes that Johnson has become a more measured fighter but still struggles against grapplers who go for finishes on the ground. He points out that even Mark Diakiese, who doesn't match Ferreira's style, was able to shut out Johnson by stifling his takedown attempts, but Ferreira's scrambling ability makes him a different threat.

Johnson opened at +116, currently +140; Ferreira opened at -128, currently -156.
"I'm just gonna pick him too. It is the classic bad matchup for Michael Johnson."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Daniel Levi picks Carlos Diego Ferreira, but with low confidence. He acknowledges Ferreira's recent losses to elite grapplers (Dariush, Gillespie, Camara) and his year off, but thinks Ferreira's BJJ is a major threat. He notes Michael Johnson has a speed advantage but Ferreira is sneaky with his striking and can take the fight to the ground. Levi believes in their primes, Ferreira wins, but is unsure about Ferreira's current form and durability.

"I'm gonna pick Carlos Diego because I think in both of their primes Diego wins this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Michael Johnson

The host picks Michael Johnson, citing his superior technical striking and ability to counter Ferreira's pressure. He notes Johnson's takedown defense will be crucial; if he keeps the fight upright, he should outland Ferreira. He expects a decision win, given Ferreira's age and layoff.

"if Michael Johnson's striking defense and his durability holds up in this matchup as well as his takedown defense he should be able to style on Diego fejera in the Striking realm"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Paul is also hesitant, citing Ferreira's layoff and age. He notes that Michael Johnson's recent opponents didn't test his grappling, but Ferreira's wrestling could be the difference. He picks Ferreira but is not confident and will wait for weigh-ins.

"Carlos Diego Ferreira at this point in the week will be my pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Michael Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson as an underdog, believing he can KO Ferreira. He notes a massive speed difference on the feet and argues Johnson has faster hands than Poirier, who hit Ferreira with speed. He points to Johnson's improved takedown defense against Mark Madsen and his competitive fight with Jamie Mullarkey. He expects Ferreira to be hesitant on the feet after failing takedowns, leading to a KO for Johnson.

KO
"I'm gonna go with Michael Johnson ... I think he's going to KO him as an underdog"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Zane picks Ferreira, citing the classic bad matchup for Michael Johnson: a relentless grappler who creates scrambles and submission threats. He acknowledges that Johnson has improved his takedown defense and become more disciplined, but Ferreira's ability to turn even failed takedowns into complicated exchanges will test Johnson's composure. He notes that Johnson has historically detonated when taken down, and Ferreira's style is exactly the kind that beats him.

Johnson opened at +116, currently +140; Ferreira opened at -128, currently -156.
"I'm still gonna pick him. It is the classic bad matchup for Michael Johnson and I'm not yet willing to believe that he's just entirely erased that problem."
LOSS vs Mateusz Gamrot
TKO (submission to knee to the body) R2 3:26 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 36 of 101 35% 37 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 25 of 58 43% 31 of 67 4 of 7 57% 0 0 1:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 18 of 56 32% 19 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 14 of 31 45% 20 of 39 3 of 3 100% 0 0 0:27
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 18 of 45 40% 18 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 11 of 27 40% 11 of 28 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 36 of 101 35% 18 of 69 12 of 23 6 of 9 35 of 98 1 of 3 0 of 0
Carlos Diego Ferreira 25 of 58 43% 15 of 46 5 of 7 5 of 5 22 of 54 0 of 0 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 18 of 56 32% 7 of 34 5 of 13 6 of 9 17 of 54 1 of 2 0 of 0
Carlos Diego Ferreira 14 of 31 45% 7 of 23 4 of 5 3 of 3 14 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Mateusz Gamrot 18 of 45 40% 11 of 35 7 of 10 0 of 0 18 of 44 0 of 1 0 of 0
Carlos Diego Ferreira 11 of 27 40% 8 of 23 1 of 2 2 of 2 8 of 24 0 of 0 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo is very confident in Mateusz Gamrot, placing 3 units on him at -200. He believes Gamrot should be -350 or -400, as he can win striking exchanges and dominate the wrestling. Angelo notes that Ferreira is a good BJJ player but Gamrot's top control is a big obstacle, and Ferreira would need to sweep to win. He thinks Gamrot's wrestling neutralizes Ferreira's jiu-jitsu and that Gamrot is a future champion.

3 units on moneyline at -200
"i think camera at minus 200 is actually low this is the guy that should be minus 350 minus 400 so i'm all over gamron"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot by decision, praising his well-rounded skills, cardio, and IQ. He notes Ferreira's age (36) and cardio concerns, but acknowledges Ferreira's dangerous BJJ and solid striking. He expects a competitive fight but believes Gamrot's volume and takedown mixing will earn him a decision win. He thinks the line is wider than the fight will be.

decision
"give me gamrot to win give me gameroute to win a decision but i do think it will be a lot more competitive than that line does indicate"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Gamrot

Cody is a Gamrot fan, calling him 'Polish GSP' for his well-rounded skills. He notes Gamrot's excellent cardio, striking, and grappling, and that he now trains at American Top Team. Cody sees a path to victory via smothering wrestling and pace, similar to how Beneil Dariush and Gregor Gillespie beat Ferreira. He acknowledges Ferreira's dangerous BJJ and crafty striking but thinks Gamrot's youth and cardio will be too much.

"I'm going to take my two scammers but I do fully recognize that ferreira is still alive man"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Mateusz Gamrot

Daniel Levi leans toward Mateusz Gamrot but is not fully confident. He respects Ferreira's elite jiu-jitsu but notes Ferreira has struggled with cardio and weight cuts in recent fights, gassing against Gregor Gillespie and Beneil Dariush. Levi thinks Gamrot's wrestling and top control will be effective as the fight progresses, especially if Ferreira tires. He acknowledges Gamrot's unorthodox takedown style and solid chin, but is wary of Ferreira's submission threats early.

Gamrot by decision; fight goes to decision
"I think in this one I'm leaning Gamrot... as Diego starts to tire, that's where I think Gamrot can just get a little bit extended top control."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Gamrot

Jacob agrees with Angelo, calling Gamrot the real deal. He notes that Ferreira is a Fortis MMA guy who tends to fall back against top competition. Jacob believes Gamrot's patient, controlling wrestling will allow him to take Ferreira down and wait for an opportunity to finish. He thinks Gamrot will dominate from start to finish and possibly get an early finish.

"camera is the real deal a hundred percent agree with you i think this should be minus four hundred"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Gamrot

The host picks Gamrot by decision, believing his chain wrestling and improved striking will allow him to outwork Ferreira. He notes that Ferreira is slowing down and Gamrot is on the rise. He likes the decision prop at +145.

Gamrot by decision (+145)
"I like gamra by decision as well uh i do think dario mixon is striking and takedowns well enough here to get the judge's decision here gamma by decision plus 145 count me in"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul agrees with Gamrot, citing his five-round experience in KSW and his ability to keep a high pace. He notes that Ferreira has struggled against wrestlers with good cardio, as seen in the Gillespie fight. Paul thinks Gamrot should execute a wrestling-heavy game plan and grind Ferreira down, but he doesn't love the price.

"I think he's the rightful favorite so I'm with you here I'll pick I'll pick gamrot but I don't love it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by second-round TKO. He notes Gamrot is well-rounded with good grappling, stand-up, cardio, and chin. He thinks Ferreira has slowed down recently and is 36 years old. He expects Gamrot to use feints and takedown threats to land a right hand, similar to the Holtzman fight. He sees Gamrot's power and speed being too much.

second round TKO
"i'm going with gamra the gamer matteo scamrott"
TKO (punches) R2 4:51 · UFC on ESPN: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · May 08, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gregor Gillespie 0 31 of 60 51% 37 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 2 1:06
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 45 of 62 72% 53 of 70 4 of 8 50% 0 0 5:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gregor Gillespie 0 26 of 45 57% 30 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:58
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:28
2 Gregor Gillespie 0 5 of 15 33% 7 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:08
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 35 of 42 83% 43 of 50 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gregor Gillespie 31 of 60 51% 31 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 39 3 of 3 18 of 18
Carlos Diego Ferreira 45 of 62 72% 37 of 52 7 of 9 1 of 1 9 of 17 6 of 8 30 of 37
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gregor Gillespie 26 of 45 57% 26 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 25 2 of 2 18 of 18
Carlos Diego Ferreira 10 of 20 50% 5 of 13 4 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 13 5 of 7 0 of 0
2 Gregor Gillespie 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Carlos Diego Ferreira 35 of 42 83% 32 of 39 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 4 1 of 1 30 of 37
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregor Gillespie

Big Brady believes Gillespie's wrestling will be the difference, as he averages 7.02 takedowns per 15 minutes with 47% accuracy. He notes Ferreira has 68% takedown defense and was taken down five times in his last fight. Brady thinks Gillespie will control the fight on the mat with top control and superior cardio, winning a decision. He is not worried about Ferreira's submission threat off his back, as Ferreira has only two UFC submissions. He says the moneyline at -175 is worth a look.

Gillespie by decision (plus 150 worth a look)
"I'm gonna take lisby to win i'm going to say by decision i really don't see him finishing ferreira maybe like a third round finisher."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Daniel Levi picks Carlos Diego Ferreira, calling him the best jiu-jitsu guy in the division besides Oliveira and Dariush. He argues that Gillespie is overrated, citing his 50/50 fight with Jason Gonzalez and his loss to Kevin Lee. He believes Ferreira's jiu-jitsu will be too much for Gillespie, predicting a submission win. He notes Ferreira's ability to get back to his feet and his improved boxing, and thinks Gillespie will struggle to hold him down.

submission
"i actually think that saturday night live at the apex that uh that diego ferreira is going to be the first man in mma history to submit gregor gillespie"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Gregor Gillespie

The MMA Guru picks Gregor Gillespie over Carlos Diego Ferreira, acknowledging it's a risky pick. He trusts Gillespie's wrestling style, which avoids being submitted by staying in body lock positions rather than full guard. He also notes Ferreira took the fight on short notice and Gillespie had a full camp, which benefits Gillespie. He predicts a unanimous decision win.

"i'm gonna go with uh gregor gillespie in my opinion i think he's a very risky pick though"
LOSS vs Beneil Dariush
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · Feb 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Beneil Dariush 0 54 of 121 44% 74 of 145 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:58
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 62 of 116 53% 74 of 132 5 of 15 33% 0 0 7:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Beneil Dariush 0 21 of 39 53% 24 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 29 of 51 56% 32 of 54 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:06
2 Beneil Dariush 0 14 of 24 58% 30 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 10 of 22 45% 18 of 34 3 of 5 60% 0 0 3:37
3 Beneil Dariush 0 19 of 58 32% 20 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:36
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 23 of 43 53% 24 of 44 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Beneil Dariush 54 of 121 44% 43 of 104 10 of 15 1 of 2 45 of 109 5 of 5 4 of 7
Carlos Diego Ferreira 62 of 116 53% 46 of 98 10 of 12 6 of 6 51 of 93 3 of 5 8 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Beneil Dariush 21 of 39 53% 17 of 32 4 of 6 0 of 1 19 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0
Carlos Diego Ferreira 29 of 51 56% 24 of 46 3 of 3 2 of 2 22 of 38 0 of 2 7 of 11
2 Beneil Dariush 14 of 24 58% 10 of 20 4 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 19 3 of 3 1 of 2
Carlos Diego Ferreira 10 of 22 45% 7 of 17 1 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 12 3 of 3 1 of 7
3 Beneil Dariush 19 of 58 32% 16 of 52 2 of 5 1 of 1 16 of 53 0 of 0 3 of 5
Carlos Diego Ferreira 23 of 43 53% 15 of 35 6 of 6 2 of 2 23 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Big Brady slightly edges Carlos Diego Ferreira, citing his durability and output advantage. He notes that Dariush has been knocked out three times and Ferreira is not a knockout artist, but Ferreira's volume could be key. He expects a very close decision and admits it's a coin-flip fight.

"I'm going to slightly edge Ferreira to get it done, I'm going to say by a very close decision."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Beneil Dariush

Daniel Levi picks Beneil Dariush, noting his wrestling and top control advantage. He acknowledges Ferreira's improved boxing and footwork, but believes Dariush's grappling and ability to avoid submissions will be key. He mentions Dariush's past win over Ferreira and his experience against high-level grapplers.

"i'm gonna go with benil here via decision i think he can mix in takedowns avoid the submission"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Ferreira has transformed his game since joining Fortis MMA, showing improved striking, pace, and pressure. He averages 283 strikes thrown per fight and has great cardio. His takedown defense has improved, and he gets back to his feet quickly. Dariush has been in firefights recently and may struggle with Ferreira's constant forward pressure. Ferreira's durability and chin are solid. I expect Ferreira to push the pace, outwork Dariush, and win a decision. The line is fair and Ferreira is the better fighter now.

Ferreira by decision
"i like diego feje here i like him roughly around that even money we got minus -125 i think that's a solid line too"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Beneil Dariush

The MMA Guru picks Beneil Dariush in a close fight, noting the odds should be 50-50. He praises Dariush's youth, activity, and improving stand-up, citing his performance against Edson Barboza. He questions Ferreira's wins over aging opponents and thinks Dariush's grappling will keep him safe. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision.

unanimous decision 29-28
"i'm gonna go with benildarius i feel like okay and that is very on the spot because this is a very even bout"
Mateusz Rębecki - Fight History
LOSS vs Grant Dawson
Submission R3 4:42 · UFC 328 · May 09, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Grant Dawson 0 35 of 94 37% 71 of 136 1 of 3 33% 4 0 7:08
Mateusz Rębecki 1 33 of 64 51% 49 of 81 1 of 5 20% 0 1 2:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Grant Dawson 0 13 of 21 61% 24 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:37
Mateusz Rębecki 0 8 of 11 72% 9 of 12 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:50
2 Grant Dawson 0 20 of 69 28% 21 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:14
Mateusz Rębecki 1 24 of 51 47% 34 of 62 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:29
3 Grant Dawson 0 2 of 4 50% 26 of 31 1 of 1 100% 3 0 4:17
Mateusz Rębecki 0 1 of 2 50% 6 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Grant Dawson 35 of 94 37% 19 of 67 14 of 23 2 of 4 24 of 81 6 of 7 5 of 6
Mateusz Rębecki 33 of 64 51% 27 of 56 1 of 2 5 of 6 27 of 50 4 of 4 2 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Grant Dawson 13 of 21 61% 7 of 15 6 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 12 5 of 5 4 of 4
Mateusz Rębecki 8 of 11 72% 7 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 6 4 of 4 0 of 1
2 Grant Dawson 20 of 69 28% 10 of 48 8 of 17 2 of 4 19 of 66 1 of 2 0 of 1
Mateusz Rębecki 24 of 51 47% 20 of 45 1 of 2 3 of 4 22 of 42 0 of 0 2 of 9
3 Grant Dawson 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1
Mateusz Rębecki 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dawson (-170), Rebecki (+142)

Round 1
American Top Team training partners collide when Dawson (23-3-1, 11-2-1 UFC) and Rebecki (20-4, 4-3 UFC) come to blows over the next 15 minutes or fewer. Teams don’t fight for their fighters, and it is only the competitors and referee Mike Beltran—and he knows you’re alone in there. Aware of one another’s game, this could go any number of ways—hopefully that way is exciting. The athletes touch ‘em up.
Rebecki ambles his way forward, ducking and dipping his way forward. Dawson introduces himself by booting the Polish fighter in the face and cutting him open on his left eyebrow, on the very first strike of the fight. Dawson goes to the body after, and he brings up a knee when he sees Rebecki is about to take him down. The scramble is wild between the two, as Rebecki is thwarted for his efforts with Dawson circling around to take his back. Rebecki grabs the fence heartily, resulting in multiple slaps from Beltran for his foul. Rebecki stands up, with Dawson wrapped around his waist from behind threatening chokes. Dawson has a body triangle locked up, and Rebecki grabs the fencing again to try to improve his position. Beltran shuts it down. Dawson wraps up a rear-naked choke, and Rebecki lowers himself down to the floor and keeps his chin tight to his chest.
Dawson uses his toes to illegally maintain his position on Rebecki’s back by grabbing them in the fencing, and Rebecki is leaned over trying to shimmy his training partner off of him. Rebecki posts on both arms, and Dawson strips them away. Rebecki hits a quick switch out of nowhere to turn about and put Dawson on his seat against the wire. Dawson wall-walks to get upright before long, and now it is Rebecki who has his arms around a waist. Rebecki raps a few right hands on the side of the dome, and he opens up with an uppercut and a right hand when they manage to break. Dawson kicks him twice in the body, and his knee partially finds its target on the chest. Rebecki boots Dawson’s leg out from beneath him, and when Dawson scrambles to his feet, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dawson

Round 2
The two are glad to touch gloves to get going, and Dawson chambers his knee ready for Rebecki to advance towards him. Rebecki does not sprint his way in, so Dawson kicks him in the face. Rebecki loads up a monster right hand and knocks Dawson off his feet. Dawson shells up to protect himself and stand up, and Rebecki clings to him rather than laying into him with power punches. Dawson does not mind being stuck controlled by his opponent because it means he can get his wits about him again. Dawson offers a no-look elbow from behind to no effect, and Rebecki slowly slugs him with a few more rights until they separate. Dawson gets back to kicking Rebecki in the ribs repeatedly. Dawson sells out for a spinning wheel kick, but he is out of range and off-balance as well. Rebecki lumbers his way forward, straight into a head kick. He still changes levels after taking the kick, and he bails on it and guard against a jump knee. Rebecki tags Dawson with a left hand while Dawson is looking for big knees and kicks.
Dawson kicks his foe’s feet out, and when Rebecki stands, Dawson is in his face putting hands on him. Rebecki breaks off and threatens with fireball left hands. Dawson catches him with a right. Rebecki turns his hips into a low kick, and he misses a haymaker by a matter of inches. Rebecki leaps forward to split the guard with a left, and he ducks into a kick when slinging another. Dawson shoots, and Rebecki sprawls to circle around and away. Dawson kicks, and Rebecki knocks him to his seat. Dawson climbs back up and gets clubbed on the ear with a right hand and a left. Dawson still marches forward despite getting tagged, and he clinches up his foe. Fans do not like the slowdown or the tactic. Dawson drills a knee to the chest and splits off to kick Rebecki in the face. Rebecki catches the kick and trips Dawson up to hurl him indiscriminately to the mat. Rebecki leans on top of Dawson until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 3
A double clap of hands gets things going in the last round. Both men wing something at one another and pull back, and the first to commit is Dawson. Dawson kicks Rebecki in the head, and Rebecki trips out his other leg. Dawson gets hold of Rebecki in a scramble and takes his back standing up. The two roll to the mat, with Dawson following the whole time and securing the back take. Dawson ties up the body triangle and starts smacking the Polish fighter with short punches on either side of the temple. Rebecki remains calm while stuck in this dominant position defending the rear-naked choke, so Dawson switches to neck crank. Rebecki’s arms go slacked, and Beltran is about to step in but Rebecki motions double thumbs-up to him. This is a strategy of his, as it turns out, and he is able to wriggle himself free. Dawson fastens another choke around the chin, and Rebecki defends well.
Dawson keeps offering setups from either side, and Rebecki hand-fights him to prevent from anything getting close. Rebecki turns over to alleviate some of the pressure. Dawson follows him every which way and beats down Rebecki with punches and elbows when a choke is not there. “KGD” rolls his man over and keeps his left arm wrapped on the chin to set a trap. Rebecki turns just the wrong way, and
Dawson fastens his arm beneath the jaw in the form of a modified rear-naked choke. Rebecki frantically fights the hands but is in big trouble. This time, Dawson is using one single arm, but it is powerful enough that the light slowly leaves Rebecki’s eyes, drifting towards unconsciousness as angels and demons flicker across his vision. Before he goes all the way out, Rebecki submits.
Dawson immediately releases his grip and dismounts his foe to drop to his knee and let out his emotions. Manly tears flow from his face, who later explains to commentator Joe Rogan that he just learned this particular version of this submission, a "genie" choke, recently.

The Official Result
Grant Dawson def. Mateusz Rebecki R3 4:42 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Angelo picks Mateusz Rębecki because he is exciting and never stops trying to finish. He thinks the fight is either Grant Dawson gets takedowns and dominates, or Rębecki stuffs the first takedown and knocks him out. He admits he can't bring himself to root against the most exciting guy in the division.

"I am going to pick Mataus Rebecci because I just can't bring my body to root against the most exciting guy for the indivision."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Angelo picks Mateusz Rębecki, emphasizing his fast starts, intent to finish, and never-quit attitude. He notes Dawson is a wrestler who will shoot takedowns, but Rębecki has never accepted a position and will keep moving forward. He thinks Rębecki has 15 minutes to find a finish over Dawson, who can be finished. He admits he cannot bet on Rębecki due to his recklessness.

Angelo says he doesn't know if he could bet on Rębecki because he is too reckless.
"I'm picking Mat Rebecki. If you're picking Grant Dawson, that means you're rooting for one of the most boring fighters in the history of this division."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Grant Dawson

Big Brady leans Grant Dawson, citing his excellent ground game and improved cardio at American Top Team. He notes Rębecki does not wear damage well and has questionable cardio. Brady predicts Dawson will get takedowns and ground-and-pound, leading to a late-round TKO, specifically third round. He also mentions a prop on Underdog for Rębecki under 32.5 significant strikes.

Underdog: Rębecki under 32.5 significant strikes
"I'm taking Grant Dawson to win this fight by late round TKO. Third round TKO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Grant Dawson

Cody picks Dawson, citing his wrestling advantage and Rebecki's cardio issues. He thinks Dawson can take Rebecki down and control him, avoiding Rebecki's power. Cody expects Dawson to win by decision.

"I am taking Grant Dawson. And I'm not going to fault anybody taking that dog shot and Rebecki."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Grant Dawson

Connor also picks Dawson hesitantly. He emphasizes that Dawson is a mediocre athlete who stifles opponents but often fades late. Rębecki is difficult to discourage and may take over in the third round. Connor notes that most of Dawson's opponents are either finished early or more tired than him in the third, but Rębecki's toughness could change that.

Dawson opened at -120, now -165; Rębecki opened at +100, now +145.
"There's a chance for Rębecki. He is a tireless little Wolverine."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Daniel picks Rębecki, acknowledging Dawson's top control danger but believing Rębecki's grappling with elite opponents and striking advantage will lead to an upset. He notes Rębecki's win over Mctobec Oral as proof of his grappling credentials.

"I'm actually go opposite. Listen, I know the danger if if uh Dawson gets on top, but the thing about it is Rambky proved to me he can grapple with elite guys when he beat Mctobec Oral by and I …"
FI
FightingPost AI Expert Confident pick date unknown
Grant Dawson

Predicted method: Decision. Dawson's wrestling-heavy approach (3.81 takedowns per round) should overwhelm Rębecki, who has only 50% takedown defense and has lost three of his last four. Rębecki is aggressive on the feet (5.21 SLpM) but leaves himself open to takedowns. Dawson's 1.1 submission average and top control will be key; he can grind out a decision or find a submission. Rębecki's only chance is a knockout, but Dawson has never been knocked out. Expect Dawson to control the fight and win by decision or submission.

Dawson by decision +155
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Jacob picks Rębecki by first-round knockout at +500. He thinks Grant Dawson has shown he can be dropped easily and that Rębecki will be swinging for the fences. He notes that Dawson has issues in the first round and that Rębecki is a short stocky guy who is hard to take down.

first round knockout +500
"Matteas Rebecki first round knockout plus 500. Yeah, I'm going to be playing that."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Grant Dawson

Lucrative James picks Grant Dawson because he believes Dawson's elite wrestling and grappling will overwhelm Mateusz Rębecki if the fight goes past the first round. He notes that Rębecki's only path to victory is an early knockout, as Dawson has been finished early before. He predicts Dawson will win by ground and pound, similar to Diego Ferreira's win over Rębecki.

"I'll take Grant Dawson to win this fight and I'll say he wins it via ground and pound."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Grant Dawson

The host picks Dawson, believing his grappling and gas tank will be superior. He notes that Rębecki throws wide power shots that leave openings for Dawson to get takedowns. He expects Dawson to grind out a decision, though he acknowledges Rębecki's power and grappling background could make it close. He is not interested at -160 but thinks Dawson wins.

"I'm going to go Dawson by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Grant Dawson

Paul leans Dawson but is not fully confident. He notes Dawson's wrestling and Rebecki's vulnerability to takedowns, but also Rebecki's power and durability. Paul expects a close fight but gives Dawson the edge.

"For me, it's dog or pass and what I can expect to be a close competitive fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Rębecki as an underdog, citing his solid takedown defense and ability to get back to his feet. He notes Dawson's chin is a concern after being KO'd by Manuel Torres and Bobby Green. He believes Rębecki's power and durability will catch Dawson, predicting a KO win.

by KO
"I'm going to go with Matteas Rebecki as a slight underdog here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Grant Dawson

Zane picks Dawson but is hesitant. He notes that Dawson will likely outwrestle Rębecki early, but Rębecki is a tough grinder who may come on late as Dawson fades. Zane compares it to the Ricky Glenn fight where Dawson lost a late lead. He thinks Dawson will win the first two rounds but could lose the third, making it a risky pick.

Dawson opened at -120, now -165; Rębecki opened at +100, now +145.
"I would love for it to be the Grant Dawson loses rather and I feel awesome about it. God knows it would be more fun, but I don't think it will be."
LOSS vs Ľudovít Klein
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ľudovít Klein 0 82 of 140 58% 90 of 149 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mateusz Rębecki 0 72 of 159 45% 113 of 208 3 of 12 25% 0 0 5:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ľudovít Klein 0 25 of 45 55% 25 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mateusz Rębecki 0 21 of 50 42% 21 of 50 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:47
2 Ľudovít Klein 0 38 of 67 56% 41 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mateusz Rębecki 0 21 of 61 34% 22 of 62 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:23
3 Ľudovít Klein 0 19 of 28 67% 24 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mateusz Rębecki 0 30 of 48 62% 70 of 96 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ľudovít Klein 82 of 140 58% 69 of 127 9 of 9 4 of 4 72 of 126 0 of 2 10 of 12
Mateusz Rębecki 72 of 159 45% 55 of 139 11 of 14 6 of 6 45 of 130 4 of 4 23 of 25
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ľudovít Klein 25 of 45 55% 22 of 42 2 of 2 1 of 1 25 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 21 of 50 42% 11 of 40 6 of 6 4 of 4 19 of 48 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Ľudovít Klein 38 of 67 56% 28 of 57 7 of 7 3 of 3 37 of 65 0 of 1 1 of 1
Mateusz Rębecki 21 of 61 34% 16 of 53 3 of 6 2 of 2 21 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ľudovít Klein 19 of 28 67% 19 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 16 0 of 1 9 of 11
Mateusz Rębecki 30 of 48 62% 28 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 21 2 of 2 23 of 25
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ludovit Klein vs. Mateusz Rebecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Klein (-135), Rebecki (+114)

Round 1
As this relatively deep event keeps rolling on, a pair of talented 155ers on the edge of lightweight contention with hopes that the victor earns a number next to their name on Monday. Whether it will be “Mr. Highlight” Klein (23-5-1, 7-3-1 UFC) or Polish powerhouse Rebecki (20-3, 4-2 UFC), referee Marc Goddard will be the first to know. There is a fist bump before the two men throw down.
Klein sticks his man with a jab and slips back, watching out for a short right hook coming at him. Rebecki probes with a front kick as he presses forward, and the two crash into one another as Klein gets off a left hand that marks the Polish fighter up already. Klein stings Rebecki with a one-two, and Rebecki’s knees buckle but he steels himself and fires back with a vengeance. Klein retreats, evading a big few strikes as Rebecki wants blood. Klein potshots him with distant strikes, using his jab to try to keep Rebecki back. Rebecki ignores it and loads up on power left hands, and he jumps and misses with a knee with leaping forward. Both fighter swing it out, with Klein able to move and prepare for Rebecki’s advances. Rebecki rushes in for a double, and Klein belts him in the guts with a flush knee. Rebecki completely no-sells it so he can transition to a single, and he lifts Klein’s leg up but is unable to sling him down on his first efforts.
Rebecki lets go of the leg of his opponent to loop a left hand upstairs, and he attacks the other leg and still cannot take the fight down. Klein springs back, and he potshots the Polish man with his sharp jab. Rebecki pushes out with a front kick and uses it to hurl a right hand behind it, only for Klein to get to him first. Rebecki runs forward, stepping on Klein’s foot and tripping him up. Klein bounces off his seat and gets right back up, allowing Rebecki to swing way past him as Rebecki is putting everything into his punches while Klein is much more content to touch and stay evasive. Rebecki walks into a left hand, and he dips down directly into a head kick. They both trade low kicks, with Klein’s jab opening a cut on the cheek and eyebrow of the left side of Rebecki’s face. Rebecki stutter-steps his way in, takes a one-two on the chin and gives back a hard right hand offering. Klein catches Rebecki on the way in with a check right hook, and he uses his jab to end the round with Rebecki’s face a mess.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Klein
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Klein
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Klein

Round 2
The lightweights touch gloves to get started in the second stanza, and Rebecki is the aggressor again outright. Klein sticks him with a solid left hand, and leg kicks fly from both men. Klein wraps his shin up and around Rebecki’s noggin, and Rebecki takes it cleanly and engages in a brief brawl. Klein tries to keep out of the direct slugfests, instead using his range and reach to peck at his man. Klein slips something and nails Rebecki with an uppercut, and Rebecki’s eyes go wide as he is compromised but still more than willing to trade hands. Rather than go after Rebecki and try to put him away, Klein has to watch out for the looping strikes zooming his way regularly. Rebecki may be bloodied and stung, but he is still putting everything into his punches and uses them to secure a clean double-leg. Klein rebounds off the floor and walks his way up, so Rebecki mat returns him with emphasis. Rebecki drives down a few punches before Klein climbs back up, and Klein uses a sharp elbow to further blood Rebecki up on the way up.
Rebecki keeps plodding forward, throwing everything into his hooks, and he gets intercepted by the Slovakian’s sharp offense. Klein’s offense further shreds open the cut around Rebecki’s eye, and he chains a few punches into it and kicks him on the other side of the dome to ring his bell. Rebecki’s face has become festive as Halloween is coming up, a bloody mask but still plenty of life behind his eyes. Klein watches Rebecki swing for the bleachers and intercepts him or dips out of the way in time. Rebecki connects with a jump knee, and Klein shrugs off a few strikes to further connect with damaging punches. Klein kicks Rebecki square in the face, and Rebecki barely budgets. Klein styles on his man with punches and a head kick, and Rebecki is stuck with a lot of damage and five minutes left to work.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Klein
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Klein
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Klein

Round 3
Despite taking untold damage, Rebecki is loaded for bear and comes out of his corner accordingly. Rebecki walks Klein down and even shoots for a takedown, all while Klein is marking him up with straight, long punches. Klein resets and rolls with an overhand right to swing back with a booming right of his own, and he snaps out his jab to solid effect. Rebecki pursues a single, pushing Klein to the wall until he suddenly spins the other direction and yanks Klein to the floor. “Mr. Highlight,” as if he has springs in his shorts, bounces off the mat. Rebecki drags him down again, and he starts to bash and brutalize Klein with power punches. Suddenly, Klein’s body language changes as he starts to get hurt from the heavy blows, and he is no longer as eager and able to bounce back up. Whether injured, rung up or something else, Klein suddenly is practically disabled on his back.
Rebecki, seated in half guard, rains down a seemingly unending stream of left hands. Klein rips him open with a nasty elbow off his back, and blood from the Polish athlete almost immediately covers Klein’s face. The eternally tough Rebecki steps over to the side, and he looks to crucify Klein by putting Klein’s right arm between his legs. Klein bucks, and he briefly finds himself in crucifix position taking damage. Rebecki sits up and starts punishing Klein with elbows, the two lightweights become a horror show of blood, violence and high-amplitude limbs flying. Rebecki keeps pounding on the deflated Klein, who manages to hang on to the bell somehow. Klein motions to his corner that his right ankle is trashed, which could explain why he suddenly seemed to shut off in the third round as if he was shot with a tranquilizer dart.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (29-28 Klein)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (29-28 Klein)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (29-28 Klein)

The Official Result
Ludovit Klein def. Mateusz Rebecki via Majority Decision (29-28, 28-27, 28-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Ľudovít Klein

Angelo picks Ludovit Klein despite loving Mateusz Rebecki's relentless style and heart. He notes that Rebecki bleeds excessively and cuts easily, which will be a problem against a technical striker like Klein. Angelo thinks Rebecki could win if he didn't wear damage so badly, but the blood will sway judges. He considers Rebecki a phenomenal underdog and might bet him on a round handicap if the line widens.

I'm going to wait for these prop bets, and if I get lucky, the line widens and widens and widens, and then I can bet Mateusz Rebecki at plus three and a half
"Mateusz Rebecki, unfortunately, cannot be the pick with how bloody this dude was a month ago heading into this fight. I think he's a phenomenal underdog. If you want to take the shot, I'm going to pick Ludovit Klein."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Ľudovít Klein

Big Brady picks Ľudovít Klein, primarily due to concerns about Mateusz Rębecki's activity and accumulated damage. He notes Rębecki has fought frequently, taking severe facial damage in recent fights, and is returning just two months after a brutal war with Chris Duncan. Brady believes Rębecki's face will swell and bleed, influencing judges, and that Klein will win a damage-based decision. He calls it a war but avoids betting on it.

Klein by decision; fight will be a war; not touching it from a betting perspective
"I'm going to go Klein. I don't love it, but I'm going to go Klein to win this fight with a damage base decision. I think this is going to be an absolute war."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ľudovít Klein

Cody picks Ľudovít Klein, citing his reach advantage (6 inches) and precise striking. He notes that Rębecki has short arms (66-inch reach) and tends to overswing, leaving himself open. Klein's takedown defense is solid, and he fights well at range. Cody believes Klein will win a decision by staying on the outside and picking Rębecki apart.

"for me, it's Ludovit Klein."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Connor finds this fight hard to call but leans toward Rębecki. He notes that Klein is a dynamic but low-output range striker who struggles when pressured. Rębecki is pathologically aggressive and physically strong, which could overwhelm Klein. However, Connor acknowledges that Klein has one-shot KO power and that Rębecki may run into danger. He compares Rębecki favorably to Mason Jones, who lost to Klein, citing Rębecki's superior athleticism and durability.

Odds moving in the wrong direction; Klein is the favorite at -148, but Connor thinks Rębecki is the right pick.
"I'm kind of thinking I'll pick Rębecki here. Yeah, I think that's where I land as well, but it is tough because he will run into these sniping shots that Klein throws."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ľudovít Klein

Daniel Vreeland believes Klein's high kick and technical striking will be the difference against the durable but damage-prone Rębecki. He notes that Rębecki absorbs a lot of damage and has been finished before, and that Klein's reach and disguised high kick could catch him. He also thinks the narrative that Klein can't handle a dog fight is exaggerated, citing wins over Mason Jones and Ignacio Bahamondes.

wins by KO (head kick)
"I'm going to pick him to come out here and actually highkick knock out the ultra tough Matteo Rambky."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ľudovít Klein

Lucrative James picks Ľudovít Klein to win by KO, citing his superior striking and head kicks. He believes Rębecki is coming back too soon after a war with Chris Duncan and will be compromised. He notes Rębecki's path to victory is wrestling, but doubts he can take Klein down and control him. He predicts body shots will drop Rębecki's hands, setting up a head kick knockout.

KO
"I think Ludvik Klein headkick knockout. I I really do, man. Body shots are going to add up and when the hands drop, the headkick is coming."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ľudovít Klein

The host is not a big Klein fan but believes Klein's precision striking, movement, and takedown defense will allow him to batter Rębecki on the feet, similar to what Chris Duncan did. He predicts a decision win.

decision
"I think that Klein has the perfect style of precision striking, good movement, and good enough takedown defense to batter Romeki on the feet..."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Paul leans towards Rębecki but is hesitant due to his inconsistency. He notes that Rębecki has cost him money in the past, but at plus money, he sees value. Paul acknowledges Klein's low volume and Rębecki's ability to make it a dogfight, but admits he can't fully trust Rębecki.

"I'm going to lean Rebecki, but I don't think I'm going to bet it, because this guy has cost me a whole bunch of money as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ľudovít Klein

The MMA Guru picks Ľudovít Klein by TKO in round two. He argues that Mateusz Rębecki has taken too much damage in his last two fights and is predictable, circling into the same hooks. Klein is a sharpshooter with a reach advantage and good takedown defense. He expects Klein to sting Rębecki with something big and finish him, possibly breaking his nose or swelling his eye. He notes that Klein has had stinkers but is technical and should not get outgrappled.

TKO in round two
"I'm going to take Ludovit Klein by TKO here over Mateusz Rebequi, who's just a little bit too predictable."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Zane also picks Rębecki, citing Klein's lack of a consistent range striking game and his tendency to be a 'powerful potshotter' without the connective tissue. He believes Rębecki's relentless aggression and physicality will be too much for Klein, despite the risk of running into a big shot. Zane notes that Klein's finishes in the UFC have come against subpar competition.

"Rębecki is just too reliable an aggressor. So I think I'm going to take Rębecki, but it is a tough fight to call."
LOSS vs Chris Duncan
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Duncan 0 114 of 267 42% 123 of 278 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:23
Mateusz Rębecki 0 92 of 222 41% 95 of 225 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Duncan 0 32 of 74 43% 38 of 81 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:00
Mateusz Rębecki 0 19 of 62 30% 19 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Chris Duncan 0 38 of 88 43% 38 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
Mateusz Rębecki 0 25 of 62 40% 26 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Chris Duncan 0 44 of 105 41% 47 of 109 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:04
Mateusz Rębecki 0 48 of 98 48% 50 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Duncan 114 of 267 42% 88 of 235 7 of 13 19 of 19 104 of 256 10 of 11 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 92 of 222 41% 67 of 181 20 of 35 5 of 6 85 of 214 7 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Duncan 32 of 74 43% 20 of 61 1 of 2 11 of 11 30 of 72 2 of 2 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 19 of 62 30% 10 of 47 6 of 12 3 of 3 19 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chris Duncan 38 of 88 43% 32 of 78 0 of 4 6 of 6 38 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 25 of 62 40% 17 of 48 8 of 13 0 of 1 25 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Chris Duncan 44 of 105 41% 36 of 96 6 of 7 2 of 2 36 of 96 8 of 9 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 48 of 98 48% 40 of 86 6 of 10 2 of 2 41 of 90 7 of 8 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Chris Duncan vs. Mateusz Rebecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rebecki (-200); Duncan (+170)

Round 1
Remaining in the lightweight division for the co-main event, a pair of friends and training partners at American Top Team will throw down for Coconut Creek bragging rights. Both men happen to be a win or two from ranked opposition, so this “separating wheat from chaff” matchup has fairly high stakes relative to most other fights on the card—the preceding Rosa vs. Cornolle pairing was the lone bout on the card between two ranked combatants. Rebecki (20-2, 4-1 UFC) and Duncan (13-2, 4-1 UFC) will handle their business with matching 4-1 records in the UFC at stake, and referee Kerry Hatley will serve as the third man in the Octagon. The teammates touch gloves before determining how exactly how much pain they wish to inflict on one another.
Duncan leads off immediately with a head kick, and Rebecki comes right after him swinging. Rebecki loads up on his left hand, and Duncan knocks him back with his own right hook. The two are talking to one another as they load up with massive power—at this point, it appears they are going brawl it out. Rebecki knocks Duncan down to the ground with his swinging shots, and Duncan is able to get back to his feet. As they trade again, a giant mouse develops on the top right corner of Rebecki’s head. Rebecki takes Duncan down briefly, and Duncan threatens off his back with an elbow and then tries to get hold of a submission. Rebecki backs out and stands up, with Duncan following suit. Rebecki is quick get put his foot on the gas once more, and Duncan fires back with impunity and opens a cut on Rebecki’s forehead above his right eyebrow. Duncan sits down on an elbow that Rebecki eats like a steak, and Rebecki continues to walk through damaging blows.
Duncan stays on his back foot attacking with body kicks, and Rebecki gets close to him and drives home three quick punches. Duncan strikes with another elbow and whiffs on a head kick, and he recovers after getting countered. Duncan goes for a body kick, and Rebecki counters cleanly with a right hook. Duncan drives a knee to the body and falls to his back, and Rebecki tackles him down and looks to get to the guard. Duncan turns over while under fire to get to his feet, and Rebecki is clinging to him from behind. Rebecki leans on his training partner, and Duncan grabs the fence to get a better position. Duncan breaks out of the grip around his waist, and they proceed to trade long straight punches. Duncan steps in with a knee and is wobbled by an overhand right. Rebecki swings with everything he has, a left hand jacking Duncan in the jaw but not hurting him. Duncan scores a few elbows, and the tense, vicious round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 2
Rebecki comes right out of his corner ready to attack, and he does just that by nailing Duncan with a crisp one-two. Duncan counters with a right hand, and he is reached by a left hook upstairs. Duncan delivers a body kick as Rebecki comes at him, and he does this again as Rebecki is trying to swing for the bleachers. Duncan misses on a kick, and Rebecki is bleeding again and strikes the body to open up head shots. Rebecki lobs a big left and a right that land flush on the sides of his foe’s head, and Duncan appears to get his foe’s attention with a sharp right hand. The Scotsman follows with a head kick that Rebecki somehow absorbs, barely still with it. Rebecki blinks it out and shoots for a double, and he takes a knee on the jaw on the way in. Duncan worms his way out the position to work back upright, and he elbows his teammate in the cut that has developed swelling around the gaping wound.
Rebecki does not care about the damage, blood in his eyes and a golf ball on his forehead, as he loops huge punches at Duncan again and again. Rebecki’s huge haymakers have swelled up Duncan’s eyes, and both men are going to need some recovery time when this is all said and done. Duncan rips a kick to the body and then stabs him in the torso with his toes. Rebecki lowers his guard to defend his guts, compromised from the strike, so Duncan attacks him with an elbow up top. Duncan goes to the body with kicks, and even when blocked, Rebecki takes them hard on the arms. Rebecki loads up on three punches to the dome, and he chases after Duncan with left hands as Duncan’s right eye balloons. Duncan kicks the front leg and jabs the gaping wound on his foe’s head, while Rebecki chases after him. Duncan knees him in the belly, and they trade hands right to the bell. Rebecki’s right eye is nearly swollen shut, and this one might not make it to the third round because of how trashed his face is.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Duncan
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 3
Rebecki is cleared between rounds, and he comes out of his corner like a berserker. Swinging his way forward to shoot for takedown, he gets Duncan down and pops back up without concern. Rebecki lets him up so he can punch him in the face, and they proceed to trade hilariously heavy leather. Duncan intercepts his hard-swinging foe with faster strikes, backing off the Polish brawler and forcing a shot out of him. Duncan stops it and blocks the oncoming fire, but Rebecki still gets through. Duncan lands a body kick, and Rebecki still manages to shoot in on his hips. Duncan hits the deck and threatens with an anaconda choke, rolling through it to lock it down, but Rebecki rolls through it further to escape. They both get up, and Duncan aims a head kick at Rebecki’s leaking visage. Rebecki looks for takedowns as he appears to be fading, while Duncan beats on him with elbows. Rebecki rips open a cut on Duncan’s left eye, and Duncan completely ignores it as he bashes Rebecki in the swollen eye. Just bleed indeed.
Rebecki has his right eye closed, and Duncan closes in to tie him up to get a few seconds to catch his wind before they re-engage. Duncan stabs the body with his foot, and Rebecki is right in his face slugging him. Rebecki loops a left hand and zips an uppercut through the guard. Both men are bloodied and battered, but they continue to bang. Duncan wobbles back, starting to feel it himself, and Rebecki somehow is willing himself into a second or third wind. Duncan pushes “Chinczyk” to the fence, and Rebecki explodes out and hurls punches in bunches. Duncan boots him in the head, and Rebecki is impossibly tough as he tanks it and keeps throwing caution to the wind. Duncan lines up a knee to the forehead, and Rebecki unloads several uppercuts on the inside. They split up, and smash one another in the face right until time expires. Blood pours out of various wounds on both men, and Rebecki collapses to his knees while Duncan raises his arms in the air. What a titanic tussle, somehow outdoing the match before it and putting itself in contention for “Fight of the Year.” TLDR? Go back and watch this somehow.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Duncan (29-28 Duncan)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Duncan (29-28 Rebecki)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Duncan (29-28 Rebecki)

The Official Result
Chris Duncan def. Mateusz Rebecki via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Chris Duncan

Connor picks Duncan despite the fight being a toss-up. He believes Duncan is more naturally dangerous as a finisher and power striker, and that his improved shot selection and calmness under pressure will allow him to land big shots. He acknowledges Rębecki's pressure and durability could wear Duncan down, but trusts Duncan's one-shot power to turn the fight.

"I think I'm gonna take Duncan here. I just like the potential for him as a finisher and as a power striker in this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chris Duncan

Lucrative James admits bias as a friend of Chris Duncan but provides a detailed breakdown. He believes Duncan has the size and reach advantage, better overall striking with kicks and range management, and the power to hurt Rębecki. He thinks Rębecki will struggle to take Duncan down due to Duncan's strength and ability to get back up, and that Rębecki may gas out if he grapples too much. He predicts a war where Duncan hurts Rębecki and finishes with a submission in round 2. He also mentions playing an under on the fight not going to decision.

Fight doesn't go to decision; Submission round 2
"Chris Duncan submission round two after a war. He hurts Rebecki, jumps on the gilly."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Zane picks Rębecki, noting that Rębecki's constant pressure, body work, and clinch grinding could overwhelm Duncan, who has struggled against aggressive fighters like Manuel Torres. He questions whether Duncan's improved shot selection will hold up against Rębecki's relentless pace. Zane sees Rębecki as a more consistent process fighter who can wear down opponents over time.

"I'll just take Rubisky. Yeah, it's been a minute since I've seen somebody like this does stand out to me on Chris Duncan's records that these are some pretty measured long range fighters that he has been taking on."
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Rębecki 1 71 of 146 48% 93 of 174 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:24
Myktybek Orolbai 0 61 of 135 45% 85 of 162 2 of 5 40% 0 1 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Rębecki 0 27 of 57 47% 27 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Myktybek Orolbai 0 22 of 51 43% 22 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mateusz Rębecki 0 23 of 55 41% 24 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Myktybek Orolbai 0 25 of 57 43% 28 of 61 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:44
3 Mateusz Rębecki 1 21 of 34 61% 42 of 61 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:09
Myktybek Orolbai 0 14 of 27 51% 35 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Rębecki 71 of 146 48% 52 of 123 10 of 11 9 of 12 54 of 126 5 of 6 12 of 14
Myktybek Orolbai 61 of 135 45% 46 of 114 6 of 11 9 of 10 60 of 133 0 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Rębecki 27 of 57 47% 15 of 43 7 of 7 5 of 7 26 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 22 of 51 43% 13 of 39 2 of 4 7 of 8 22 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Rębecki 23 of 55 41% 17 of 47 3 of 4 3 of 4 22 of 54 1 of 1 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 25 of 57 43% 19 of 50 4 of 5 2 of 2 25 of 56 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Mateusz Rębecki 21 of 34 61% 20 of 33 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 16 3 of 4 12 of 14
Myktybek Orolbai 14 of 27 51% 14 of 25 0 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Myktybek Orolbai vs. Mateusz Rebecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cerqueira (-112), Aslan (-108)

Round 1
Another victim of a weigh-in day switcheroo, the two lightweights in Rebecki (19-2, 3-1 UFC) and Orolbai (13-1-1, 2-0 UFC) now find themselves competing at a 160-pound catchweight. It is currently unclear which man struggled to make weight properly—or it could be both—as they comfortably reached that mark together. Referee Vitor Ribeiro draws the charge for this matchup outside of standard weight divisions, and he checks the fight in as the two men tap their gloves together. Rebecki strides forward ready to throw hands, and he punches his way in and clashes his chest against his opponent’s. Orolbai pushes him back, and gets tagged by a left hand. The sheer momentum of the two make them crash together more than once, and Rebecki is throwing everything he has at his opponent. Rebecki pitches out a left hand that reddens the nose of his adversary, and leg kicks are traded. Orolbai sneaks in a short right, and Rebecki slides to the side and batters his opponent on both sides of the head with power punches. Orolbai pushes out a right hand, and they bang their heads together when coming towards one another. Rebecki punches his way into a clinch, and he escapes before Orolbai can take advantage of it. Rebecki chops at the front leg and spins around, and he loads up on heavy blows that do not make Orolbai budge one inch. Orolbai tosses out a head kick after a one-two, and Rebecki counters with a clubbing left hand. Rebecki’s face begins to turn red from a few absorbed blows back his direction, and he pays it no mind as he loads up on his big left. Orolbai sticks his opponent with a right and gets blasted with a scooping left hand, and it causes immediate damage that swells up his right eye. Orolbai’s eye balloons from the power punches, and Rebecki targets it like a bullseye. Rebecki chops down the front leg, and Orolbai walks him down and just misses with a head kick. A left hand from the Polish fighter opens up the nose, and he gets knocked down from a counter right that might have been from him being off-balance. The horn sounds as Rebecki scrambles back upright to attack again.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 2
Ribeiro calls in the physician to example Orolbai’s swollen right eye, which has almost completely closed between rounds. Orolbai passes the vision test and is cleared to continue for now. He starts off the round looking for a takedown, hoping to stifle the momentum of Rebecki. The Polish fighter loads up so hard with his left hand that he dislodges his own mouthpiece, and resets it and eats a huge right hand on the jaw. Orolbai connects with a head kick and shoots for a takedown, and the tree stump that is Rebecki stops it in its tracks. Orolbai splits the guard with an uppercut, and he loads up on massive right hands in hopes of hurting Rebecki or opening something up. This allows Rebecki to wrap his hands around the waist and push him against the fence. Orolbai drops down to the floor for a takedown, and although he trips Rebecki up, he cannot ground Rebecki. “Chinczyk” checks Orolbai’s chin with a left hand, and Orolbai has to take a moment to recover from it and absorbs a thunderous left on the busted eye. The beacon of a swollen eye is the perfect place for Rebecki to punch, and Rebecki punches it again and again. Rebecki uses a leg kick to open up a right hook, and he gets caught by a right hand from his opponent but does not budge. Instead, Rebecki surges forward with a wild left hand, and he dips away from an uppercut. Rebecki hammers the front leg with a kick and goes up top with a left, and Orolbai checks a second kick and shoots in for a double. Rebecki uses the fence at his back to stay upright, but a subsequent effort from Orolbai drags him to the ground. Before they hit the canvas, Orolbai appears to crash his head into his opponent’s and a cut on Rebecki’s eye splits open and starts pouring blood. Rebecki wipes at it but keeps swinging with full power, and Orolbai measures him with uppercuts and somehow counters him. Orolbai rolls with the punches and snaps the head to the side with an elbow, and he gets popped with two right hooks and completely shrugs them off. Orolbai connects with a left, absorbs a one-two, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Orolbai
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Orolbai

Round 3
With damage on both right eyes, doctors clear them without even needing to check on the fighters’ conditions. Orolbai opens up in the final round with an elbow, aimed at the cut. Rebecki unloads a left hand on the swollen eye socket, and it is miraculous that Orolbai can see out if it. Rebecki blasts his man in the face with a right hand as Orolbai is attacking with an elbow, and a bomb of a second right hand sends Orolbai crashing to the mat. Rebecki pours it on with an onslaught of right hands, smashing Orolbai’s nose to pieces and causing blood to spray across the Octagon. Ribeiro watches on closely but does not intervene, and Rebecki beats Orolbai like a rented mule. Rebecki wrenches Orolbai to the floor, hammering the fighter from Kyrgyzstan but not eliciting referee intervention. Orolbai muscles his way to a knee and his feet, and he continues to take destructive right hands and pursues a single. Rebecki remains on his feet despite Orolbai’s attempts, and he lowers himself to a knee and starts absorbing rights of his own. Rebecki turns the tables on his opponent and dumps him to his backside, climbing into top position while blood covers both men. It comes from both fighters, who leak and cover the mat as well. Through sheer force of will, Orolbai turns his opponent around and pounds on him with left hands and elbows to the body. Orolbai considers an arm-triangle choke but slips off the side due to the massive blood flow. Orolbai sits in half guard as Rebecki clings to his wrist, and Rebecki bursts back to his feet and is pushed to the wall. Orolbai is pushed away, and he drives a one-two on the chin. Rebecki tanks it and eats another power punch, and Orolbai rocks him with a huge right hook. Rebecki is totally spent, and he leans his back to the wall and survives to the bell. What a fantastic bloodbath, one instantly worthy of “Fight of the Night” and plenty of attention from physicians in the next few minutes. Just bleed.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (30-27 Rebecki)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (29-28 Rebecki)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (29-28 Rebecki)

The Official Result
Mateusz Rebecki def. Myktybek Orolbai via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Myktybek Orolbai

Angelo picks Myktybek Orolbai in a close fight. He notes Orolbai has better cardio, can close the gap and get takedowns, and has a good chin. He thinks Rębecki's only hope is a knockout, but Orolbai is durable. He acknowledges Rębecki is good and has been reliable in the past, but leans toward Orolbai's pressure and grappling.

"motto's the pick again super close fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Myktybek Orolbai

Big Brady picks Orolbai, expecting a chaotic scramble-fest. He notes that Rębecki slows down as fights go on, as seen against Fiori and Carlos Diego Ferreira. He believes Orolbai's pace will be too much for Rębecki and that Orolbai will take over as the fight progresses. He predicts a decision win, possibly with a late finish.

"I'm going to take my titty back here to win this fight and I think he wins it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Myktybek Orolbai

Cody picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing his massive size and reach advantage over Rębecki. He notes that Rębecki gassed out in his last fight and has no plan B when his wrestling fails. Orolbai's size, power, and ability to lean on opponents will wear down Rębecki. Cody believes Orolbai will win by decision or late finish.

"sign me up for the much larger man or lebi"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Myktybek Orolbai

Connor picks Orolbai, agreeing that he is more determined and a better round winner. He notes that Rębecki is a better puncher but more amorphous in his process, while Orolbai demands control and will not let Rębecki off the hook. Connor sees Rębecki winning the first round but losing the last two due to Orolbai's pressure.

"Yeah, that's the thing. I think I could see Robesky having a lot of success early. ... But if he can't ever stop from having to fight it off, yeah, then I, yeah, I think he's going to get tired …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Myktybek Orolbai

Daniel Vreeland picks Orolbai, noting that Rębecki gassed out in his last fight after spamming overhands. He argues that Rębecki's wrestling won't work against Orolbai, who is a better wrestler and scrambler. Vreeland expects Orolbai to wear Rębecki down and finish him.

"M Toc oral by I mean like oralay is the clear pick here I think he wears him down and gets him out of there too"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Daniel Vreeland picks Mateusz Rębecki to win, but primarily because he sees value on the underdog at the current line. He believes the fight is closer than the odds suggest and that Rębecki's experience and pace could be decisive. Vreeland notes that Orolbai has shown vulnerability when things go south, as seen in the Brener fight.

"I'm going to go with him"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident pick date unknown
Myktybek Orolbai

Jeff Fox agrees with Vreeland, picking Orolbai. He mentions that Orolbai has been impressive since joining the UFC and that he took him in his debut on short notice. Fox trusts Orolbai's skills and expects him to win.

"I'm glad I'm picking him then um if he's the clear pick yeah ori's been very good"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Myktybek Orolbai

Orolbai has the cardio and scrambling advantage, allowing him to avoid early danger and grind out a win. He could get a third-round finish or win on the scorecards. This is a grapple-heavy matchup.

Orolbai wins by third-round finish or decision
"I do believe orai has the cardio and scrambling Advantage which should allow him to stay out of too much danger early on in this matchup and then grind this fed out either winning a third round finish or winning …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Myktybek Orolbai

Paul picks Orolbai, agreeing that Rębecki was exposed in his last fight and that Orolbai's size and strength will be too much. He notes that Orolbai is a mountain of a man at 155 and that Rębecki's cardio issues will be exploited. Paul is confident Orolbai will win.

"orabi is just a mountain of a man at this Division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Myktybek Orolbai

The Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing his relentless pace and ability to dig deep. He notes that Orolbai pushed through adversity against Uros Medic and has shown good cardio. He believes Rębecki is good but may fade in the later rounds, while Orolbai's pressure and takedown attempts will break him. The Guru also mentions the humid Abu Dhabi environment favoring the tougher fighter.

"I'm going to go with Myktybek Orolbai over Mateusz Rębecki I think he can push more when the going gets tough."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Myktybek Orolbai

Zane picked Orolbai but was worried he would hit a wall due to not being a physical force and having poor striking. He noted that Orolbai gets a lot done on heart and determination, but Rębecki crushed him in round one. Zane credited Orolbai for coming back and winning the second round, but ultimately scored the third for Rębecki because Orolbai was nearly dead earlier in the round. He called it a well-earned win for Rębecki.

"i picked or i'll be but i was really worried going in that he was going to hit a wall"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Myktybek Orolbai

Zane picks Orolbai because he is pot-committed to pressing forward and forcing his wrestling, and he is incredibly focused on making his fight happen. Even if Rębecki has early success, Orolbai's relentless pressure will gas him out and take over in later rounds. Zane notes that Orolbai is a round winner who stays calm and confident.

"I'm inclined to pick him just because I think, I just think he's incredibly focused on making his fight happen. And I think if he gets that fight, even if he's not all that overwhelming at first, it is going …"
TKO (punches) R3 4:51 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 123 of 241 51% 151 of 272 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:12
Mateusz Rębecki 1 52 of 137 37% 60 of 146 4 of 5 80% 0 0 2:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 21 of 65 32% 28 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mateusz Rębecki 1 30 of 60 50% 35 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
2 Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 40 of 79 50% 49 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:25
Mateusz Rębecki 0 16 of 48 33% 19 of 51 3 of 4 75% 0 0 0:55
3 Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 62 of 97 63% 74 of 111 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:47
Mateusz Rębecki 0 6 of 29 20% 6 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Diego Ferreira 123 of 241 51% 94 of 189 28 of 51 1 of 1 94 of 203 0 of 1 29 of 37
Mateusz Rębecki 52 of 137 37% 34 of 109 11 of 21 7 of 7 46 of 129 0 of 0 6 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Diego Ferreira 21 of 65 32% 15 of 51 6 of 14 0 of 0 21 of 64 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 30 of 60 50% 21 of 51 7 of 7 2 of 2 24 of 52 0 of 0 6 of 8
2 Carlos Diego Ferreira 40 of 79 50% 31 of 61 8 of 17 1 of 1 38 of 77 0 of 0 2 of 2
Mateusz Rębecki 16 of 48 33% 12 of 39 1 of 6 3 of 3 16 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Carlos Diego Ferreira 62 of 97 63% 48 of 77 14 of 20 0 of 0 35 of 62 0 of 0 27 of 35
Mateusz Rębecki 6 of 29 20% 1 of 19 3 of 8 2 of 2 6 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Diego Ferreira vs. Mateusz Rebecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rebecki (-310), Ferreira (+250)

Round 1
Momentum is a powerful tool. Once on a solid six-fight win streak, Ferreira (18-5, 9-5 UFC) has since dropped three of four and now stares down his 40th birthday at the beginning of next year. Eight years younger and with his own 16-fight victorious stretch in tow, Rebecki (19-1, 3-0 UFC) has it going for him. Whether the torch is passed or the older man can get it done, referee Gary Copeland will keep tabs on the lightweight contest. The sportsmen gladly bump their fists together in eager anticipation of inflicting bodily harm on one another. Rebecki surges forward immediately, throwing caution to the wind swinging fists. Ferreira stays composed and prods out with front kicks, and he dips away from the power shots that fly past him. Rebecki continues attacking relentlessly, and he knocks Ferreira to his seat momentarily courtesy of fierce right hand. The Brazilian jumps right back up, and he keeps Rebecki honest with front kicks and a solid body kick. Ferreira lands with a left and a right, and a head kick gets Rebecki’s attention. He throws another high kick, and Rebecki crowds him more. Ferreira sneaks in a left hand as Rebecki walks forward with impunity, only to be met with three flush shots on the jaw. Rebecki strings three punches together, and Ferreira attacks the body with his foot. Ferreira comes up short on a head kick, and Rebecki buzzes his hair with an overhand right. The two take turns blasting one another, and Rebecki gets the better of an exchange with a solid right hand that appears to hurt the Brazilian. Ferreira fires back with bad intentions, and his head kick comes increasingly close to landing cleanly. Rebecki jabs his way into offense, and Ferreira answers them with a heavy body kick that makes Rebecki shake his head. Rebecki leans forward and when he attacks, his head smacks into Ferreira’s. Ferreira wipes his head, and Copeland notes the head clash. Rebecki unloads a left hand that knocks Ferreira clean off his feet, and he dives down into the guard in hopes of finishing the job. Rebecki gets slowed down by the active guard of his opponent, and he cannot pass guard or land much of note while Ferreira clears his head. The round ends with Rebecki on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 2
The fighters tap hands together to open the round, and Rebecki says hello with a body kick and a powerful left hand. Ferreira drops to the mat, and he bounces back up and stings Rebecki with a left hook of his own. The Polish fighter has a foot bounce off the cup when kicking, and he apologizes as Ferreira signals he is ok. Rebecki ducks a right hand and shoots with a double, driving through the hips and putting Ferreira on his back. Ferreira hits the mat and threatens with a triangle choke, and his legs allow him to sweep and throw Rebecki off of him. Rebecki loads up on a big left hand that misses the mark, and Ferreira follows him with three punches up top while Rebecki’s eyes are swelling up fast. Ferreira jabs and absorbs a left hand on the nose that makes him tweak it to check if it is damaged. Rebecki lurches forward with a series of rangy punches, and he gets backed off as a high kick whizzes past his head. Rebecki bulldozes forward in pursuit of a takedown, and he manages to put the Brazilian on his seat for a moment. Ferreira climbs back up and works his jab, and he slips the most dangerous blows coming at him so that he can counter with three of his own. Ferreira flicks out jabs and a head kick, and he backs the Polish fighter off with body shots chained into punches in the head. The jab has split open the side of Rebecki’s eye, and Ferreira releases a number of punches to the swelling and bloody face. Copeland calls time and brings in the doctor, and Rebecki is cleared quickly and gets back to it. Ferreira drills his man in the head with a combination of punches ending with a head kick, and Rebecki catches it and tackles Ferriera to the floor. Ferreira scrambles to work his way up, and he turns the tables and drags Rebecki down from behind. The Brazilian climbs into full mount and he sits down on an arm-triangle choke, but time expires before he can get the tap.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira

Round 3
The lightweights touch ‘em up to begin, and Ferreira leads the dance with a few punches up top and a front kick. Rebecki swings back, and Ferreira is the fresher and more accurate man of the two as he lands cleaner. Ferreira looks for his jab and kicks the body, and he checks Rebecki’s chin with a one-two. Ferreira powers ahead with another short combo, and he lines up several head kicks that get blocked but have an impact. Rebecki loads up on a left hand, and Ferreira stands firm and lets him have it with a swarm of punches that stagger him. Rebecki takes a breath and kicks the lead leg, and he gets driven back with a straight right hand. Ferreira times Rebecki ducking down for a level change with an uppercut, and he chews up the midsection with power shots. Ferreira walks through power punches from the Polish fighter, and he gets taken down and turns the corner to stand back up. Ferreira goes after Rebecki’s leg to sweep him and turn him over, and he finds his way on top and slides straight into mount. Ferreira bombards Rebecki with punches and elbows, and Rebecki twists and turns in any effort to escape. Ferreira sits on him awkwardly and works Rebecki over with his fists, until Rebecki muscles his way to his knees. Ferreira drags his man down and moves back to mount, and he gets going with a number of elbows as Copeland is watching closely. Copeland asks for Rebecki to fight back, and Rebecki sits up to protect himself from further damage. Rebecki somehow slides out the back door, and both men get back to their feet with a little under a minute to go. Ferreira jabs the body with a kick, and he continues to aim strikes to the midsection. Ferreira knocks Rebecki to the wall with a one-two, and he shoots for an easy takedown and throws Rebecki to the mat so he can hop into mount.
Ferreira postures up and drills Rebecki with punches and hammerfists. Ferreira keeps striking, sensing the finish might be right around the corner, and Copeland waves the fight off to save Rebecki from any further harm.
The Polish fighter’s long win streak is now a thing of the past, and the shellacking from “CDF” has made him nearly unrecognizable. This is a mighty comeback performance for the 39-year-old, who survived a tough first round and put away a man that came into this bout the winner of his last 16.

The Official Result
Diego Ferreira def. Mateusz Rebecki R3 4:51 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Angelo picks Mateusz Rębecki confidently, citing his relentless grappling, power, and cardio. He notes Rębecki marches forward, throws heavy punches, and dives at legs for takedowns. He acknowledges Diego Ferreira's BJJ and power but believes Rębecki is durable enough to eat a big shot and impose his wrestling. He expects the line to move further in Rębecki's favor.

"I got to go matal rebecky all day long all day long very confident in him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Big Brady picks Mateusz Rębecki to break down Carlos Diego Ferreira and finish him in the third round by knockout. He notes that Ferreira is 39 years old and past his prime, while Rębecki is well-rounded with good striking, power, wrestling, and submission game. He struggles to see a path to victory for Ferreira, as Rębecki can dictate where the fight takes place and has vicious striking.

"give me recki to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Cody picks Rębecki, highlighting his youth, wrestling, and well-rounded game. He notes that Ferreira has a clear path to victory for opponents: wrestle him, tire him out, and avoid submissions. Cody points out that Ferreira has lost to wrestlers like Gamrot, Gillespie, and Dariush, and at 39 with a layoff, he is vulnerable. Rębecki is a strong Polish grappler who should follow the same blueprint. Cody also mentions that Rębecki's record is not fraudulent, as he has beaten quality opponents on the regional scene.

"rebecky minus 400 as it continues to grow you're going to run into some banana peel pricing but yeah no he's the pick"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Daniel Vreeland picks Mateusz Rębecki, calling it an honorable passing of the torch. He respects Ferreira but believes Rębecki is a legitimate prospect who deserves the top 15 spot. He notes that Rębecki's only criticism came from his UFC debut where he dominated but had one moment of adversity, which he thinks is overblown.

"This is going to be an honorable passing of the torch."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

The host confidently picks Rębecki due to his pressure, pace, and grappling, expecting him to overwhelm the 39-year-old Ferreira. He notes Ferreira's power and BJJ but believes Rębecki's youth and strength will be decisive. He predicts a decision win for Rębecki, as Ferreira should show enough resistance to avoid a finish. The pick is confident, though he acknowledges this is Rębecki's toughest test.

"I'm going to go roesy and roesy by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Paul picks Rębecki, agreeing with Cody that Ferreira's losses have come against top-tier wrestlers. He notes that Ferreira is a tough test but Rębecki is a finished product ready to contend. Paul mentions that Rębecki is a BJJ black belt and should be able to handle Ferreira's ground game. He expects Rębecki to win but notes the line is accurate with little value.

"I expect rebecky to win on Saturday night"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Rębecki over Carlos Diego Ferreira, calling Rębecki a 'tank' and 'Bruiser.' He highlights Rębecki's wrestling and ability to ragdoll opponents, referencing his win over Loik Radzhabov. He acknowledges Ferreira is a tricky test but believes Rębecki is a class above as a prospect.

"I'm going with my man matus rebecky... he wins this one."
Submission (armbar) R1 3:08 · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Nov 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Rębecki 0 10 of 16 62% 28 of 38 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:14
Roosevelt Roberts 0 2 of 7 28% 6 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Rębecki 0 10 of 16 62% 28 of 38 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:14
Roosevelt Roberts 0 2 of 7 28% 6 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Rębecki 10 of 16 62% 7 of 11 0 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 9 0 of 0 7 of 7
Roosevelt Roberts 2 of 7 28% 1 of 5 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Rębecki 10 of 16 62% 7 of 11 0 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 9 0 of 0 7 of 7
Roosevelt Roberts 2 of 7 28% 1 of 5 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mateusz Rebecki vs. Roosevelt Roberts (158: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rebecki (-700), Roberts (+500)

Round 1
Originally expecting he would come to blows with Tajikistan’s Nurullo Aliev, on ultra-late notice, Rebecki (18-1, 2-0 UFC) will instead welcome Roberts (12-3, 1 NC; 4-3, 1 NC UFC) back to the Octagon. The eight-fight vet left the organization in 2021 after getting posterized by Ignacio Bahamondes, and two wins on the regional circuit plus an appearance on the 31st season of “The Ultimate Fighter” led to “The Predator”—no not that one—getting a return ticket to the UFC. Unfortunately for Roberts, his second chance at a first impression will start off rough, as he could not reach the lightweight limit, coming in two pounds heavy and losing a hefty chunk of his purse. The two will proceed with referee Mike Beltran as their third, and the combatants happily exchange a fist bump. Roberts measures a right hand, and he just misses Rebecki. Rebecki rips a few kicks down low, and he comes up short with big swinging fists. Roberts backs off, looking for a knee to counter, and Rebecki follows him and secures a double-leg takedown to put Roberts on the mat. Rebecki slashes down with an elbow on the forehead, and he maintains position while landing some sporadic ground-and-pound. Rebecki grinds down with his elbow, frustrating the taller fighter, until Roberts kicks his feet in pursuit of a sweep. This backfires for him, as Rebecki takes side control in a hurry. Roberts is able to power his way back up through sheer muscle, and Rebecki drags him down to his face from behind. As Roberts recovers, Rebecki slithers around to take the back and get both hooks in. Rebecki smacks Roberts on the sides of his head, softening his man up until Roberts times an explosion to turn around and stand up.
Before he gets all the way up, Rebecki snares him in an armbar, and “The Predator” has just become the prey. Roberts tries to roll through to defend against the submission, but this places him in even greater danger. Rebecki continues to torque the arm with all his might, and Roberts screams out before his arm breaks and his tendons snap.
Beltran is immediately on the action to make sure nothing goes awry, but Rebecki releases the grip as soon as he hears the verbal submission. The Polish fighter is in all smiles when he stands back up, and he calls for the UFC to hold an event in Poland soon.

The Official Result
Mateusz Rebecki def. Roosevelt Roberts R1 3:08 via Submission (Armbar)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Cody picks Rębecki, calling him a 'finished product' with excellent grappling and power. He thinks Roberts is outclassed everywhere and that Rębecki will maul him. He notes the line is high but believes Rębecki is the goods.

"rebecky minus 650 is insane but guy's the goods he's he's going to be a problem"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Paul picks Rębecki, comparing him to grinders like Nick Lentz and Jon Fitch. He notes Rębecki's suffocating pressure and technique, and that Roberts is a short-notice replacement with a puncher's chance only. He expects Rębecki to dominate wherever the fight goes.

"rebecky is going to be a problem for most of these guys until he starts cracking into the top 15"
TKO (punch) R2 2:36 · UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Rębecki 2 54 of 95 56% 64 of 110 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:57
Loik Radzhabov 0 19 of 54 35% 19 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Rębecki 0 28 of 54 51% 35 of 64 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:53
Loik Radzhabov 0 10 of 30 33% 10 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Mateusz Rębecki 2 26 of 41 63% 29 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Loik Radzhabov 0 9 of 24 37% 9 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Rębecki 54 of 95 56% 24 of 58 12 of 17 18 of 20 54 of 95 0 of 0 0 of 0
Loik Radzhabov 19 of 54 35% 16 of 50 3 of 4 0 of 0 19 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Rębecki 28 of 54 51% 13 of 33 8 of 13 7 of 8 28 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Loik Radzhabov 10 of 30 33% 7 of 26 3 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Rębecki 26 of 41 63% 11 of 25 4 of 4 11 of 12 26 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Loik Radzhabov 9 of 24 37% 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Loik Radzhabov (157.25: Missed Weight) vs. Mateusz Rebecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rebecki (-155), Radzhabov (+135)

Round 1
A classic battle of Poland vs. Tajikistan is about to play out in a match that was initially scheduled at lightweight. Both looking to make their sophomore appearance a positive one, “Chinczyk” Rebecki (17-1, 1-0 UFC) will battle it out with the heavy PFL export Radzhabov (17-4-1, 1-0 UFC). The third man in the Octagon for this de facto 158-pound catchweight contest will be referee James Larry Folsom, and the fighters still touch gloves despite the weight discrepancy. Rebecki moves into striking range, backing his foe off and not worried about a big punch aimed at his direction. Rebecki loads up on a body kick, and he walks into a looping right hand. Rebecki rushes at his man with a pair of punches, and Radzhabov bounces off the fence and absorbs a pair of big leg kicks. Radzhabov gets a head of steam and aims a right hand and a body kick back. Rebecki continues to hammer the lead wheel, and he punches Radzhabov square in the face as Radzhabov tries to duck. Rebecki scoots back from a right hand and hammers the inside calf with a kick. Radzhabov swings his way into a body lock takedown attempt, and Rebecki breaks out of the clinch and kicks the ribcage. Radzhabov races forward to sling punches, and Rebecki takes them and goes back to crowding Radzhabov against the wall. Rebecki pins Radzhabov back and pops him with a left hook and a few jabs, and he suddenly changes levels to snatch up a double. Radzhabov falls to his back and grabs hold of a guillotine choke, and Rebecki pops his head out as he steps into an advantageous position with Radzhabov’s legs trapped between his own. Rebecki slugs Radzhabov in the chops with a right hand in his partial mount position, as he could shimmy up to sit on Radzhabov’s hips. Instead, Rebecki hops out of it to the side, so he can elbow Radzhabov on the dome. The fighter from Tajikistan scrambles to his knees and forces his way back to his feet, and he launches a big leg kick. Rebecki lunges forward with a fiery right hand, and he blasts Radzhabov with a leg kick that separates Radzhabov from his balance. Rebecki jumps on top of a fallen Radzhabov and locks up a crucifix position in a hurry with 20 seconds to go. Rebecki sets up a straight armlock from his angle, and he lets it go to hold Radzhabov down until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 2
The fighters touch gloves before getting right back to it, and Radzhabov starts by slugging it out. Rebecki nails him with a kick, and Radzhabov is barely able to stand up. Radzhabov wobbles back to the fence to let it help keep him upright, and Rebecki attacks it relentlessly. Rebecki measures his punches as Radzhabov is up against the wall, and he does not get reckless as Radzhabov is throwing big counters back his way. Radzhabov scores a leg hand, an elbow and another few punches. Rebecki measures his man and drives home several more low kicks to both legs, and Radzhabov cannot stand up and drops to his knees. Through sheer force of will, Radzhabov stands back up, and he entices Rebecki into a mad brawl. Rebecki obliges and busts Radzhabov in the chops, and he swings low kicks that make Radzhabov react physically every time. Even when Radzhabov lifts his leg up, the shin slams into it and makes him wince.
Radzhabov takes a hard look at the clock, which says 2:45 left in the round, and Rebecki is stalking him with accurate, dangerous blows. Rebecki decks Radzhabov with a massive left hand, and Radzhabov crashes to the ground.
Folsom immediately leaps in between them to call a halt to the contest, giving fans their first finish of the night in what some might consider a mercy stoppage. Rebecki limps away, having suffered some serious damage to his foot from the hellacious kicks, and he successfully pushes his impressive win streak to 15 straight.

The Official Result
Mateusz Rebecki def. Loik Radzhabov R2 2:36 via TKO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Angelo gives a slight lean to Mateusz Rębecki, thinking his wrestling and striking are a little better. He expects a banger and says the odds are perfect with Rębecki as a slight favorite. He has no bet on this fight and plans to just watch.

"I do think these odds are perfect with Rebecca as just the slight favorite here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Loik Radzhabov

Big Brady picks the underdog Loik Radzhabov, citing his wrestling ability and tougher competition. He notes that Rębecki's win over Nick Fiore aged poorly after Chase Hooper beat him. He has concerns about Radzhabov's cardio but thinks he can implement takedowns early. He predicts a close, competitive split decision.

"I'm gonna take the dog here and look rajabov but this is gonna be a close fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Cody picks Rębecki, noting his better cardio and wrestling. He thinks Radzhabov will gas and Rębecki can take over. He considers live betting if Radzhabov wins the first round.

Live betting considered.
"I think Rebecca's got that cardio Advantage I think he's in better shape."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Connor initially leaned toward Radzhabov because he sees more depth in his takedown game, but after discussion he switches to Rębecki. He notes that Rębecki is a better boxer with more creativity, able to throw left hands and body punches, while Radzhabov is limited to timing the right hand. Connor thinks both fighters are similar wrestle-boxers who gas after one round, but Rębecki's bullishness and ability to tank damage and keep slinging hard shots gives him the edge. He also points out that Radzhabov's confidence crumples when things go south, while Rębecki keeps coming.

"I'm leaning for the pole. I'm leaning for Ribesky."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Daniel Levi picks Mateusz Rębecki, arguing that the market overreacted to his decision win over Fiore. He thinks Rębecki dominated that fight and gassed from beating his opponent, not from poor cardio. He sees Rębecki as more physical and believes he will overwhelm Radzhabov. He thinks there is value at -145 and plans to bet.

Plans to bet Rębecki at -145 or -150.
"I'm on rambesky here and I will move in at some point soon"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

The host picks Mateusz Rębecki to win by decision. He believes Rębecki's size and strength will be too much for Radzhabov to get his takedowns, and that Rębecki will get the better positions on top and land more significant damage. He notes both fighters have cardio issues but expects Rębecki to edge out a grappling-heavy decision.

"give me the Polish fighter here to get his hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Paul picks Rębecki, citing his wrestling advantage and cardio. He notes Radzhabov's tendency to gas and thinks Rębecki can out-grapple him. He expects a decision win.

"I'll side with the with with machus Rebecca to be able to get those positions."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

The Guru picks Mateusz Rębecki, noting that Loik Radzhabov struggled against Esteban Ribovics, who stuffed takedowns and showed more potential. He believes Rębecki is a shorter, stockier, great grappler who can stuff takedowns and be a wrecking machine. He predicts Rębecki will get a KO at the end of round one or two after pressuring Radzhabov backwards.

Predicts KO in round 1 or 2.
"I'm gonna go with matteus rebecci... I can actually see him getting a KO at the end of round one or the end of round two"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Zane initially leaned toward Rębecki because he thinks Rębecki is a better boxer with more creativity, able to throw left hands and body punches, while Radzhabov is limited to timing the right hand. After discussion, he agrees with Connor that Rębecki's bullishness and ability to tank damage and keep slinging hard shots gives him the edge. Zane also notes that Radzhabov's confidence crumples when things go south, while Rębecki keeps coming. He thinks both fighters are similar wrestle-boxers who gas after one round, but Rębecki's creativity in striking makes the difference.

"I think they're going to end up stuck on their feet against each other. And Roger Bob can, he can land hard. And he's not, you know, he's not without power. But if he has to stay standing, he's just …"
WIN vs Nick Fiore
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Rębecki 0 89 of 171 52% 130 of 228 3 of 4 75% 0 0 8:27
Nick Fiore 0 34 of 93 36% 52 of 113 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Rębecki 0 54 of 101 53% 59 of 107 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:32
Nick Fiore 0 20 of 53 37% 23 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mateusz Rębecki 0 23 of 49 46% 42 of 76 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:43
Nick Fiore 0 11 of 31 35% 19 of 39 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
3 Mateusz Rębecki 0 12 of 21 57% 29 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:12
Nick Fiore 0 3 of 9 33% 10 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Rębecki 89 of 171 52% 53 of 125 27 of 37 9 of 9 63 of 138 4 of 10 22 of 23
Nick Fiore 34 of 93 36% 25 of 76 7 of 13 2 of 4 28 of 83 5 of 9 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Rębecki 54 of 101 53% 32 of 73 17 of 23 5 of 5 43 of 85 2 of 6 9 of 10
Nick Fiore 20 of 53 37% 14 of 42 5 of 8 1 of 3 17 of 47 3 of 6 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Rębecki 23 of 49 46% 12 of 35 8 of 11 3 of 3 17 of 42 0 of 1 6 of 6
Nick Fiore 11 of 31 35% 8 of 26 2 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 27 2 of 3 1 of 1
3 Mateusz Rębecki 12 of 21 57% 9 of 17 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 11 2 of 3 7 of 7
Nick Fiore 3 of 9 33% 3 of 8 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nick Fiore vs. Mateusz Rebecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rebecki (-700), Fiore (+510)

Round 1
It is extremely rare to have such lopsided betting odds when two UFC newcomers are pitted against one another, but here we are. Poland’s Rebecki (16-1, 0-0 UFC) is anywhere from the low -700 range to above -800 in his first UFC appearance, as he will be squaring off against late replacement and substantial +570ish underdog Fiore (6-0, 0-0 UFC). Fiore steps in for the injured Omar Morales, and betting confidence is low in him – likely due in part to a strength of schedule that includes not one but two wins over the notorious Jay Ellis. It’s the fight game, anything can happen and these two lightweights know it. Overseen by referee Kerry Hatley, the two men looking to make a violent statement bump fists to seal the cage around them. Rebecki instantly releases a body kick, and he comes out aggressive to kick low and follow it with a right hand. When Fiore tries to crowd him, Rebecki fires off a kick to the chest, and Fiore responds with a right hand. Rebecki clubs him with a pair of fastballs, and Fiore bounces off the cage wall to reset. The Polish fighter chops down the lead calf as he pushes forward, and he wings three straight left hands to the head and body. Rebecki rips the body with a kick, and a one-two plants right on the New Hampshire native’s chin. Fiore connects with a right hand to open up some swelling on Rebecki’s left eye, but he ignores it and keeps throwing caution to the wind. Rebecki punishes his foe with a long string of punches, and he keeps one-twos landing one after the other. Fiore’s left eye is marked up as well, and he counters his charging opponent with an elbow. Rebecki digs punches to the body, and Fiore fires back with a vengeance but gets his legs kicked hard. Rebecki slams a left hand to the body, and Fiore spins all the way around and retreats. “Chinczyk” gives chase with a flying knee, and he walks through strikes from Fiore to load up on his own power blows. Fiore shakes off two punches to the side of the head, and Rebecki unloads with rights and lefts to the ribcage. Fiore wears it all well without his knees buckling, and Rebecki suddenly blitzes him to tackle him over with a double-leg takedown. Fiore throws his legs up quickly for a possible triangle setup, or something to slow the wild Rebecki down. Fiore ties his man up in the guard, and Rebecki pushes off and drives down elbows with pure power. The Polish fighter tears open a serious cut above the left eyebrow of his opponent with his elbows, and Fiore wraps Rebecki up to make it to the bell, likely blowing up any betting line of the match ending in Round 1 – barring doctor intervention regarding that cut.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 2
The two lightweights reach Round 2, and Rebecki is no less aggressive to start things off. Rebecki pounds the body with a kick, and he swings and misses with a wide uppercut. Fiore stands back and trades blows with his reckless adversary, but the body work from Rebecki is not matched. Fiore catches a charging Rebecki with a vertical elbow, and this makes Rebecki changes levels for a takedown. The attempt fails, and Rebecki appears to be visibly slowing as Fiore backpedals. Fiore tags his man with a one-two, and he grabs hold of a double and nearly takes Rebecki for a ride. Fiore drags his opponent to the mat, and he steps into full mount briefly while Rebecki scrambles. The two slide around and work their way back to their feet before anyone claims position, and Rebecki slams his fists in Fiore’s face. Fiore takes them flush and gets his lead leg kicked out, and this draws a grimace. Rebecki bull-rushes forward to secure a double and plant Fiore on his back, and he takes a deep breath when landing. Not wanting the referee to get involved, Rebecki stays busy enough with ground-and-pound, all while Fiore clings to him to force a standup. Rebecki methodically works Fiore over with punches, and the New Hampshire native keeps his guard closed even while absorbing punishment. Rebecki continues his slow but steady drubbing of his grounded foe, and the horn sounds to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 3
The final frame begins with a glove touch, and Rebecki appears briefly energized although he walks into a few power punches and a front kick. Fiore advances first to go after a takedown, and Rebecki throws him down and backs off. Rebecki swipes with a right hand over the top and slams his shin on the inside of Fiore’s lead leg, and Fiore shakes his leg and backs off. Rebecki follows him all the way from one side of the cage to the other courtesy of a double, and he plops Fiore on the mat to pick up where he left off in the second round. Fiore once more closes up his guard, with no signs of standing or scrambling or moving in any fashion to recover. Rebecki does not mind, as he can go at his own pace, dropping down punches and keeping Hatley from making them get up. Rebecki thumps down an elbow and looks for a guard pass, but Fiore keeps him in this posture. Rebecki has activated the grind-embracing mode, and he has no interest in changing his pace or doing more on his end. Fiore briefly flirts with a high guard, but Rebecki shucks it off and returns to his control that has devolved into something more akin to lay-and-pray. The time ticks away while Rebecki holds on from on top, and with 30 seconds to spare, Fiore looks to implement a butterfly guard. There is nothing to it, as Rebecki holds on to the final bell, thereby taking Fiore to the scorecards for the first time in the latter's career.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (30-27 Rebecki)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (30-27 Rebecki)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (30-27 Rebecki)

The Official Result
Mateusz Rebecki def. Nick Fiore via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Angelo is confident in Rębecki, calling him close to a lock. He cites Rębecki's relentless grappling, power, and experience against a short-notice debutant. He notes Fiore's BJJ black belt but thinks Rębecki's wrestling and pressure will be too much. He considers the -750 odds too rich for a bet but appropriate.

"I think Rebecca's close to a lock in this fight just given Styles short notice match up"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Big Brady picks Mateusz Rębecki confidently, calling him a prospect to watch. He notes Rębecki's strong wrestling and grappling, and power on the feet. He sees Fiore as untested with limited tape, and believes Rębecki will finish him early, likely by knockout in the first round. He also mentions submission as a possibility but leans toward a knockout.

Rębecki by first round knockout
"I gotta go with robekski I'll take him to win by by first round finish honestly I think could be a potential knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Cody picks Rębecki, emphasizing his strength, wrestling, and experience against quality opponents. He notes Fiore's BJJ black belt but doubts he can handle Rębecki's physicality. He expects Rębecki to smash and repeat takedowns.

"Rebecca is UFC ready... he's battle tested already he's not learning on the job"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Jacob agrees Rębecki should win, noting Fiore's weak competition. He mentions Fiore's first two wins were against the same journeyman. He thinks Rębecki's grappling is superior but suggests a sprinkle on a weird submission due to Fiore's BJJ. He sees Rębecki as a safe play.

Mentions round 1 submission at +2500 as a Hail Mary sprinkle
"Rebecca is a much better fighter than anything Nick's ever seen"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Paul is very confident in Rębecki, calling him a powerhouse with excellent wrestling and durability. He notes Rębecki's battle-tested resume and believes he will dominate Fiore, who has fought low-level competition. He parlayed Rębecki with Ige and Umar.

Parlayed with Ige and Umar at +167; over 2 takedowns on PrizePicks
"Rebecca looks like uh like an absolute Powerhouse he should absolutely roll here"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Angelo picks Mateusz Rębecki confidently, citing his relentless grappling, power, and cardio. He notes Rębecki marches forward, throws heavy punches, and dives at legs for takedowns. He acknowledges Diego Ferreira's BJJ and power but believes Rębecki is durable enough to eat a big shot and impose his wrestling. He expects the line to move further in Rębecki's favor.

"I got to go matal rebecky all day long all day long very confident in him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Big Brady picks Mateusz Rębecki to break down Carlos Diego Ferreira and finish him in the third round by knockout. He notes that Ferreira is 39 years old and past his prime, while Rębecki is well-rounded with good striking, power, wrestling, and submission game. He struggles to see a path to victory for Ferreira, as Rębecki can dictate where the fight takes place and has vicious striking.

"give me recki to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Cody picks Rębecki, highlighting his youth, wrestling, and well-rounded game. He notes that Ferreira has a clear path to victory for opponents: wrestle him, tire him out, and avoid submissions. Cody points out that Ferreira has lost to wrestlers like Gamrot, Gillespie, and Dariush, and at 39 with a layoff, he is vulnerable. Rębecki is a strong Polish grappler who should follow the same blueprint. Cody also mentions that Rębecki's record is not fraudulent, as he has beaten quality opponents on the regional scene.

"rebecky minus 400 as it continues to grow you're going to run into some banana peel pricing but yeah no he's the pick"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Daniel Vreeland picks Mateusz Rębecki, calling it an honorable passing of the torch. He respects Ferreira but believes Rębecki is a legitimate prospect who deserves the top 15 spot. He notes that Rębecki's only criticism came from his UFC debut where he dominated but had one moment of adversity, which he thinks is overblown.

"This is going to be an honorable passing of the torch."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

The host confidently picks Rębecki due to his pressure, pace, and grappling, expecting him to overwhelm the 39-year-old Ferreira. He notes Ferreira's power and BJJ but believes Rębecki's youth and strength will be decisive. He predicts a decision win for Rębecki, as Ferreira should show enough resistance to avoid a finish. The pick is confident, though he acknowledges this is Rębecki's toughest test.

"I'm going to go roesy and roesy by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

Paul picks Rębecki, agreeing with Cody that Ferreira's losses have come against top-tier wrestlers. He notes that Ferreira is a tough test but Rębecki is a finished product ready to contend. Paul mentions that Rębecki is a BJJ black belt and should be able to handle Ferreira's ground game. He expects Rębecki to win but notes the line is accurate with little value.

"I expect rebecky to win on Saturday night"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Rębecki

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Rębecki over Carlos Diego Ferreira, calling Rębecki a 'tank' and 'Bruiser.' He highlights Rębecki's wrestling and ability to ragdoll opponents, referencing his win over Loik Radzhabov. He acknowledges Ferreira is a tricky test but believes Rębecki is a class above as a prospect.

"I'm going with my man matus rebecky... he wins this one."