UFC on ESPN: Song vs. Simon

Connor is impressed with Simón's rapid improvement, especially his boxing and wrestling integration since the Rob Font loss. He notes Simón's flexibility, ability to counter off the back foot, and scrambling prowess. However, he acknowledges Song's power and chin, and the risk of a knockout. He ultimately favors Simón due to Song's stagnation and Simón's adaptability.

Zane agrees with Connor, citing Simón's improvement and Song's plateau. He highlights Simón's wrestling threat and pace, and Song's tendency to throw everything hard and get tracked down. He notes Song's potential to knock Simón out but leans on Simón's recent performances and adaptability.

Cody picks Borralho despite the high price, citing Borralho's superior grappling, wrestling, and cardio advantages. He notes that Borralho is a smart fighter with high ring IQ who will use his grappling to control the fight, even if it's not exciting. He acknowledges Oleksiejczuk's power and chance early, but believes Borralho's path to victory is clear through takedowns and control.

Connor is unimpressed with Borralho's striking, calling it a 'paper tiger' with low activity and poor defense. He thinks Oleksiejczuk's chaotic pressure and durability will overwhelm Borralho, and that Borralho's takedown game won't be enough to control Oleksiejczuk for three rounds. He notes Oleksiejczuk's tendency to gas but believes Borralho lacks the discipline to exploit it.

Paul is intrigued by Oleksiejczuk as a live underdog, noting his power and that he is a superior striker who can keep the fight standing. He points out that Oleksiejczuk has a history of first-round finishes and that Borralho has struggled to finish fights. Paul took a small bet on Oleksiejczuk by KO at +650, acknowledging the risk but seeing value.

Zane agrees with Connor, citing Borralho's poor striking and decision-making. He thinks Oleksiejczuk's pressure and scrambling will cause Borralho problems, and that Borralho's takedowns won't be enough to secure a win. He notes the odds are wide but sticks with his feeling that Oleksiejczuk can do real damage.

Cody picks Vieira but with low confidence, acknowledging Vieira's suspect cardio and takedown accuracy issues. He notes that Vieira's striking has improved and the constant takedown threat could open up opportunities. However, he is concerned about Vieira's gas tank and the possibility of Brundage taking him into deep waters. He ultimately sides with Vieira's world-class jiu-jitsu and pedigree.

Connor believes Vieira's BJJ and takedown game will be too much for Brundage. He notes Vieira's improved striking and cardio since the Hernandez fight, and that Brundage's limited toolkit won't keep the fight standing. He sees Brundage's only path as a knockout or tireless grappling, but doubts he can execute.

Paul picks Vieira and mentions a submission prop, noting that Vieira is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist. He acknowledges Vieira's struggles with cardio and takedown accuracy but believes he can win even standing up. He suggests there may be a prop bet on Vieira by submission, though he hasn't looked deeply into props yet.

Zane agrees, noting Vieira's grappling advantage and Brundage's lack of a strong defensive wrestling game. He thinks Brundage's best chance is a clinch-heavy approach, but doubts he can compete with Vieira in that area. He sees Vieira as a strong favorite.

Cody picks Padilla as an underdog, citing Erosa's durability issues and tendency to get knocked out. He notes that Padilla has decent power and could catch Erosa early. However, he is flip-floppy and admits he wants to pick Erosa due to experience, but the favorite tag on a chinny fighter makes him lean towards the underdog.

Connor thinks Erosa's experience and durability will prevail. He notes Padilla's poor defense and tendency to gas, and that Erosa gets stronger as fights go on. He acknowledges Erosa's history of getting KO'd but believes Padilla's lack of power and technical striking make it less likely. He sees Erosa as the more versatile fighter in messy exchanges.

Paul picks Erosa but very cautiously, acknowledging his chin issues and recent knockout losses. He notes that Erosa is talented and exciting but has been knocked out by light punchers. He is not confident enough to bet on Erosa, but for the pick he goes with Erosa, hoping he doesn't get cracked again.

Zane agrees, citing Padilla's limited game and Erosa's ability to win scrambles and late rounds. He notes Padilla's submissions off his back but thinks Erosa's aggression and cardio will be decisive. He sees Erosa as the rightful slight favorite.

Cody picks Acosta as an underdog, highlighting de Lima's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes that Acosta has better boxing, volume, and a good gas tank, and can survive the initial onslaught to take over later. He suggests waiting for live betting to get an even better price on Acosta.

Connor is unimpressed with Cortes Acosta's limited game and showboating. He thinks de Lima's wrestling and better technique will be decisive. He notes de Lima's tendency to gas but believes Cortes Acosta lacks the technical game to capitalize. He sees de Lima as the clear favorite.

Paul picks Acosta, agreeing with Cody that de Lima is not a good fighter and has terrible cardio. He notes that Acosta has better boxing, head movement, and a good chin, and can outwork de Lima in later rounds. He also mentions that de Lima is a light heavyweight who moved up and has a history of gassing.

Zane agrees, citing Cortes Acosta's lack of technical foundation and de Lima's superior wrestling and speed. He notes de Lima's history of losing to more technical fighters after gassing, but Cortes Acosta is not that type. He sees de Lima as the rightful favorite.

Cody picks Quinlan but is hesitant, noting that Quinlan is undefeated and has knockout power, but has never been tested in later rounds. He worries about Quinlan's cardio and the fact that Waters is tall with a reach advantage. He suggests that if Waters survives the early onslaught, he could work his way back into the fight. He also mentions Quinlan has submissions on his record, which could be a factor.

Connor is high on Quinlan, comparing him to a young Robbie Lawler. He thinks Quinlan's power and athleticism will overwhelm Waters, who has a slick but fragile style. He notes Waters' lack of power and defensive issues, and believes Quinlan will knock him out.

Paul picks Quinlan and suggests early Quinlan props, noting that Quinlan is a powerful finisher and Waters is on short notice. He is surprised the line is not higher and thinks Quinlan by knockout early is likely. He also mentions that Quinlan has submissions, but the main path is via knockout.

Zane agrees, calling Waters' game 'quadruple A' and noting his defensive flaws. He thinks Quinlan's power and pressure will be too much, and that Waters' style is not sustainable at higher levels. He sees Quinlan as a straightforward pick.

Cody picks Buday at plus money, noting that both fighters have poor recent performances. He believes if Buday uses his size and grappling to lean on Collier and push him against the cage, he can win. He is concerned about Collier's cardio after his last fight and thinks Buday's path to victory is through control and wearing Collier down.

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Collier's path to victory is either instant or leads to slow disaster. He points out that Collier was a middleweight who moved up and lacks the fitness to carry the weight, whereas Buday is a solid heavyweight who can fight into shape. Connor emphasizes that Collier's best wins are against fighters who couldn't match his pace, but Buday can sustain his own pace.

Paul picks Collier, citing his volume and cardio advantage. He notes that Collier can land over 100 significant strikes and Buday has low volume. He predicts Collier wins by decision, as Buday is not likely to finish. He also mentions a prop on Buday under 65.5 significant strikes for PrizePicks.

Zane picks Buday because he has the durability and patience to weather Collier's early storm, and Collier historically fades after a strong start. He notes that Buday is a competent heavyweight who can sustain a patient pace, while Collier's lack of fitness and tendency to gas out make him unreliable. Zane is surprised the odds are even, as he sees Buday as a clear favorite.

Cody picks Durden, having taken him at +170 earlier. He believes Durden's wrestling and pressure will be effective against Johnson, who gives up takedowns. He notes that Johnson's cardio may be compromised due to fighting frequently, and that Durden can grind out a win. He thinks the current +120 is fair but not great value.

Connor also leans Johnson, citing Johnson's ability to adjust and finish strong, as seen against Osborne. He notes that Durden's takedowns may not work against Johnson's excellent takedown defense, and without that threat, Durden's boxing is limited. Connor sees a pattern where Johnson loses round one but comes back to win rounds two and three.

Paul picks Johnson but is hesitant, acknowledging that Durden's wrestling could be a problem. He notes Johnson's superior striking and volume, and hopes judges favor damage over control time. However, he is concerned about Johnson's activity level and potential fatigue, and admits he might get burned.

Zane leans Johnson because he believes Johnson can sustain a striking offense that wins over judges, especially if Durden's takedowns fail. He notes Johnson's takedown defense is excellent and that he made adjustments against Ode Osborne, coming back strong. However, Zane acknowledges Durden's wrestling and pace could be problematic, and the fight could hinge on the second round.

Cody picks Egger, citing her legitimate judo pedigree and clinch advantage. He notes that Alekseeva has power but poor boxing and may struggle with Egger's clinch work. He expects the fight to end up in the clinch, where Egger has the edge. He also mentions that Alekseeva's competition level is questionable.

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Egger's judo is much more technical and she is physically stronger. He points out that Alekseeva has a frame that makes it hard to build core strength, and she lacks the power to toss opponents around. Connor sees Egger as a clear favorite.

Paul picks Egger and has a PrizePicks play on her under 33.5 significant strikes, noting her low volume. He believes Egger will win but is not heavily invested due to the high price. He mentions that Egger is a low-volume fighter who looks for submissions rather than ground-and-pound.

Zane picks Egger because she is stronger, harder hitting, and has more technical judo. He notes that Alekseeva lacks core strength and struggles to complete takedowns, while Egger is scrappy and has been in tough fights. Zane believes Egger will easily flail into the clinch and dominate.

Cody picks Kelleher by decision, noting that Kelleher has underrated wrestling and can control Newson on the ground. He points out that Newson has poor takedown defense against wrestlers and that Kelleher's recent wins have come via wrestling-heavy game plans. He believes Kelleher will fight smart to secure a decision.

Connor also picks Newson hesitantly, citing the short notice and McGhee's potential to gas if he blitzes. He notes Newson's wrestling could be a factor, but McGhee's athletic takedown defense and scrambling are good. Connor thinks the fight could be ugly and low-volume.

Paul picks Kelleher by decision, agreeing with Cody. He notes that Kelleher is on a three-fight losing streak against top competition and this is a must-win. He expects Kelleher to rely on his wrestling and control time to secure a decision. He is surprised the line has moved towards a pick'em and may bet Kelleher.

Zane picks Newson hesitantly due to McGhee's short notice, but acknowledges McGhee could blitz and win early. He notes Newson's wrestling and submission game could be effective if McGhee gasses. Zane is concerned about Newson's broken style but thinks the short notice favors him.

Cody picks Horth, noting her solid takedown defense and kickboxing skills. He believes she can keep the fight at range and land bigger shots. He mentions that Cowan likes to clinch but Horth should be able to shut that down. He also notes that Horth has been a hidden gem in Canada with good training partners.

Connor picks Horth, noting her striking is like a more confident Lucie Pudilova, crashing into the clinch with wide right hands. He emphasizes her grimy clinch style and hard elbows, and that Cowan is extremely raw and lacks a functional MMA game. Connor believes Horth's physicality and aggression will be too much.

Paul picks Horth, having bet her at -103. He notes that Cowan has had weight issues and unimpressive performances. He believes Horth's undefeated record and Canadian background make her a solid pick. He also mentions a PrizePicks play on Cowan under 60.5 fantasy score.

Zane picks Horth because she is a bully with good clinch work, hard elbows, and a grinding ground game. He notes Cowan is raw, unskilled, and relies on physicality, which Horth can match. Zane sees Horth's violence as the difference.