Career Averages - Jack Jenkins
Career Averages - Gabriel Santos
Jack Jenkins
Gabriel Santos
Jack Jenkins - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Jenkins | 0 | 65 of 109 | 59% | 73 of 123 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:58 |
| Ramon Taveras | 0 | 43 of 113 | 38% | 68 of 142 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Jenkins | 0 | 32 of 56 | 57% | 32 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ramon Taveras | 0 | 16 of 43 | 37% | 16 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Jack Jenkins | 0 | 29 of 42 | 69% | 29 of 43 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Ramon Taveras | 0 | 20 of 58 | 34% | 30 of 68 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 3 | Jack Jenkins | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 12 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 2:54 |
| Ramon Taveras | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 22 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Jenkins | 65 of 109 | 59% | 29 of 68 | 16 of 21 | 20 of 20 | 58 of 95 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 9 |
| Ramon Taveras | 43 of 113 | 38% | 36 of 98 | 6 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 38 of 106 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Jenkins | 32 of 56 | 57% | 14 of 33 | 11 of 16 | 7 of 7 | 29 of 52 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Ramon Taveras | 16 of 43 | 37% | 11 of 34 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jack Jenkins | 29 of 42 | 69% | 12 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 12 | 28 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ramon Taveras | 20 of 58 | 34% | 18 of 52 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jack Jenkins | 4 of 11 | 36% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 9 |
| Ramon Taveras | 7 of 12 | 58% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
Angelo picks Jack Jenkins despite thinking he is overrated, because he believes Jenkins can win with forward pressure and volume, similar to how Davy Grant beat Taveras. He notes Taveras chases overhands and power, which Jenkins can counter. He attributes the line collapse to Jenkins' ironic mustache, not his skills.
Big Brady picks Jack Jenkins to win by decision. He notes Jenkins has more tools, including leg kicks that will target Taveras's lead leg. He also mentions Jenkins can mix in takedowns. He thinks the line is a bit wide but still expects Jenkins to win at home.
Cody picks Jenkins, citing his devastating leg kicks that will slow Taveras down over time. He notes Taveras is a better boxer but flat-footed and has no takedown attempts in his UFC career, making him vulnerable to Jenkins' kicks and potential wrestling. He also mentions Taveras missed weight in past fights and is traveling to Perth, which could affect his performance.
Connor also picks Jenkins, agreeing that Taveras is a good matchup for him. He notes that Taveras is an expert at letting things happen to him and has a big head, making him easy to hit. Connor thinks Jenkins's low kicks and counter punching will be effective, and that Taveras's toughness won't be enough to overcome Jenkins's advantages. He cautions that Jenkins's game is thin, but Taveras is not the kind of fighter to expose it.
James has not done tape study on this fight and passes on making a pick. He mentions he likes Jack Jenkins as a fighter but does not provide a prediction.
The host notes Taveras is moving up to 145 lbs after weight issues at 135. He thinks Taveras will struggle against Jenkins' calf kicking and grappling game, keeping Taveras on the defensive and leading to a decision win for Jenkins.
The Guru picks Jack Jenkins, citing his ability to break bones with strikes and his kicking game. He notes Taveras is moving up from bantamweight and has been victimized by kicks before. He expects a sustained beating leading to a TKO in round two or three.
Zane picks Jenkins confidently, noting that Taveras has trouble with low kicks and has a big head that is easy to punch. He believes Jenkins's crushing low kicks and top game will be too much for Taveras, who is tough but not skilled enough to deter Jenkins. Zane expects Jenkins to look great in this fight, though he acknowledges Jenkins's game is narrow and he struggles against fighters who can control distance.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Jenkins | 1 | 34 of 48 | 70% | 39 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:20 |
| Gabriel Santos | 0 | 39 of 61 | 63% | 96 of 123 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 2 | 0 | 6:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Jenkins | 1 | 28 of 36 | 77% | 33 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Gabriel Santos | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 22 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:50 | |
| 2 | Jack Jenkins | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Gabriel Santos | 0 | 24 of 32 | 75% | 58 of 69 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:48 | |
| 3 | Jack Jenkins | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gabriel Santos | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 16 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 1:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Jenkins | 34 of 48 | 70% | 22 of 35 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 7 | 13 of 22 | 5 of 6 | 16 of 20 |
| Gabriel Santos | 39 of 61 | 63% | 26 of 44 | 6 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 23 of 45 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Jenkins | 28 of 36 | 77% | 19 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 16 of 20 |
| Gabriel Santos | 9 of 20 | 45% | 3 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jack Jenkins | 5 of 11 | 45% | 2 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gabriel Santos | 24 of 32 | 75% | 19 of 25 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 12 | |
| 3 | Jack Jenkins | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gabriel Santos | 6 of 9 | 66% | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Big Brady is a big fan of Gabriel Santos, believing he is much better than his 1-2 UFC record indicates. He notes Santos's well-rounded skills, power, and BJJ black belt. He thinks Santos has a significant grappling advantage over Jack Jenkins, who was taken down and controlled by Jamal Emmers. Brady predicts Santos will win a decision, possibly with a submission.
Santos is considered the better fighter, slicker with Muay Thai and more aggressive with BJJ. His Muay Thai will allow him to check Jenkins' kicks and counter with straight shots. The fight is expected to go to decision with Santos winning.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Jenkins | 2 | 73 of 126 | 57% | 98 of 152 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
| Herbert Burns | 0 | 24 of 79 | 30% | 45 of 101 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Jenkins | 0 | 39 of 66 | 59% | 53 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Herbert Burns | 0 | 15 of 53 | 28% | 28 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:09 | |
| 2 | Jack Jenkins | 1 | 20 of 38 | 52% | 31 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:15 |
| Herbert Burns | 0 | 6 of 23 | 26% | 14 of 32 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 | |
| 3 | Jack Jenkins | 1 | 14 of 22 | 63% | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Herbert Burns | 0 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Jenkins | 73 of 126 | 57% | 44 of 95 | 15 of 15 | 14 of 16 | 59 of 99 | 0 of 1 | 14 of 26 |
| Herbert Burns | 24 of 79 | 30% | 11 of 61 | 7 of 10 | 6 of 8 | 21 of 73 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Jenkins | 39 of 66 | 59% | 24 of 51 | 11 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 39 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Herbert Burns | 15 of 53 | 28% | 8 of 43 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 14 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jack Jenkins | 20 of 38 | 52% | 8 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 11 | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 |
| Herbert Burns | 6 of 23 | 26% | 2 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 2 | |
| 3 | Jack Jenkins | 14 of 22 | 63% | 12 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 14 |
| Herbert Burns | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident Jack Jenkins will win, citing his superior striking, takedown defense, and multiple ways to win. He dismisses Herbert Burns as a submission-or-bust fighter with poor offensive wrestling who seems to hate fighting. Angelo expects Jenkins to light Burns up on the feet and suggests parlaying him before the odds get even shorter.
Big Brady picks Jack Jenkins to win by second-round knockout. He notes Herbert Burns is very dangerous in the first five minutes but has poor cardio, heart, and durability, and has been knocked out in the second round in his last three losses. He believes Jenkins can survive the first round, possibly in bad spots, and then finish Burns in the second. He cautions that Jenkins has been finished in all three of his losses, so Burns has a five-minute window to submit him, but overall he expects Jenkins to get the knockout.
Cody is confident Jenkins will win but notes the price is blown out. He expects Jenkins to survive the first round and then take over as Burns gasses. He mentions Jenkins' leg kicks and cardio as advantages, but warns that Burns has a puncher's chance early. Cody suggests live betting Jenkins after the first round.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jack Jenkins to win by late finish, likely in round two or three. He notes that Jenkins is a systematic leg kicker who will chop Burns down, while Burns gasses and has been finished repeatedly. Vreeland suggests playing Jenkins round two as a hedge against the under 1.5 rounds.
The host picks Jenkins, noting his solid striking and mixing of martial arts. He expects Jenkins to avoid Burns' early power and then put a pace on him, finishing him likely by knockout. He mentions the under 1.5 rounds prop as a potential bet, and notes Jenkins' round 2 prop at +550.
Paul acknowledges Jenkins is not a potent finisher but believes he will outlast Burns, who has terrible cardio. He notes that Burns has been submitted in his last two and that Jenkins has never been knocked out. Paul calls it a cop-out but picks Jenkins, though he is priced out of betting.
The MMA Guru picks Jack Jenkins over Herbert Burns. He criticizes Burns as a quitter with only one round of cardio, comparing him to Makwan Amirkhani. He praises Jenkins' takedown defense, noting his strong hips and foot positioning. He predicts Burns will have early moments but gas out and get finished in the second or third round, possibly by TKO. He also mentions body kicks on the ground as a potential finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 41 of 68 | 60% | 43 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Jack Jenkins | 0 | 38 of 87 | 43% | 87 of 143 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 31 of 50 | 62% | 33 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jack Jenkins | 0 | 23 of 60 | 38% | 38 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 2 | Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Jack Jenkins | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 49 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chepe Mariscal | 41 of 68 | 60% | 16 of 36 | 13 of 18 | 12 of 14 | 35 of 60 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Jenkins | 38 of 87 | 43% | 14 of 53 | 11 of 16 | 13 of 18 | 23 of 65 | 14 of 21 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chepe Mariscal | 31 of 50 | 62% | 14 of 27 | 7 of 11 | 10 of 12 | 29 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Jenkins | 23 of 60 | 38% | 10 of 41 | 8 of 11 | 5 of 8 | 18 of 52 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chepe Mariscal | 10 of 18 | 55% | 2 of 9 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Jenkins | 15 of 27 | 55% | 4 of 12 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 13 | 9 of 13 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Jack Jenkins, citing his lethal leg kicks as the difference. He notes that Chepe Mariscal is a two-to-one underdog with great wrestling and striking, but Jack's leg kicks will take away Chepe's movement and takedown ability. Angelo has parlayed Jack Jenkins with Nasrat Haqparast at plus money.
Big Brady picks Jack Jenkins, citing his technical striking and wrestling. He notes a red flag from Mariscal's fight with Sean Soriano, where Soriano outgrappled him. He thinks Jenkins can mix in takedowns and control the fight. He predicts a decision win.
Cody picks Jenkins, citing his superior wrestling, leg kicks, and technical striking. He notes that Mariscal's takedown defense is not yet developed and that Jenkins can exploit that. Cody expects Jenkins to win by decision, possibly a close one, and likes the Jenkins by decision prop.
Daniel Levi picks Jack Jenkins confidently, highlighting his leg kicks that have broken three opponents' tibias. He also praises Jenkins' defensive responsibility, fight IQ, and ability to mix in takedowns. Levi believes Mariscal's brawling style will leave openings for Jenkins to land his shots. He expects Jenkins to take over in the second and third rounds, potentially getting a knockout or a decision.
Jenkins is athletic, fast, with great wrestling and relentless calf kicking that destroys opponents' movement. He blends striking and wrestling well. Mariscal is a short-notice call-up who showed good wrestling but may have durability issues. Jenkins has physical advantages and should win by decision, with a small sprinkle on a KO prop due to Mariscal's potential chin issues.
Paul picks Jenkins but is leaning, noting that Jenkins should lean on his wrestling and make it ugly. He acknowledges that Mariscal is tough and durable, but believes Jenkins' wrestling and striking will be the difference. Paul sees this as a potential fight of the night.
The MMA Guru picks Jack Jenkins over Chepe Mariscal, calling it a no-brainer. He notes that Jenkins is an extremely technical striker with a tight guard, while Mariscal is less technical. He acknowledges Mariscal's win over Trevor Peek but points out that Peek is a sloppy fighter. Jenkins has a close decision loss to Jamal Emmers but is active, having fought twice this year. He predicts Jenkins will win a competitive 29-28 decision, possibly losing the third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Jenkins | 0 | 57 of 155 | 36% | 76 of 185 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 2 | 4:17 |
| Jamall Emmers | 0 | 59 of 119 | 49% | 85 of 154 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Jenkins | 0 | 21 of 69 | 30% | 21 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jamall Emmers | 0 | 20 of 40 | 50% | 20 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jack Jenkins | 0 | 28 of 71 | 39% | 29 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:08 |
| Jamall Emmers | 0 | 31 of 61 | 50% | 31 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Jack Jenkins | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 26 of 43 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 1 | 4:09 |
| Jamall Emmers | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 34 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Jenkins | 57 of 155 | 36% | 26 of 98 | 18 of 38 | 13 of 19 | 51 of 146 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 6 |
| Jamall Emmers | 59 of 119 | 49% | 26 of 67 | 14 of 21 | 19 of 31 | 53 of 110 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Jenkins | 21 of 69 | 30% | 6 of 40 | 10 of 21 | 5 of 8 | 20 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamall Emmers | 20 of 40 | 50% | 8 of 20 | 7 of 9 | 5 of 11 | 19 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jack Jenkins | 28 of 71 | 39% | 13 of 44 | 7 of 16 | 8 of 11 | 27 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jamall Emmers | 31 of 61 | 50% | 12 of 32 | 6 of 11 | 13 of 18 | 31 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jack Jenkins | 8 of 15 | 53% | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 5 |
| Jamall Emmers | 8 of 18 | 44% | 6 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
Angelo gives a slight lean to Jamall Emmers due to his 100% takedown defense. He acknowledges Jack Jenkins is a real prospect with power and leg kicks, but notes Jenkins has low IQ moments where he grapples when he shouldn't. He expects a decision and suggests the best bet might be Jack Jenkins at +3.5 points (buying a round).
Big Brady picks Jamall Emmers but is hesitant due to Emmers' poor fight IQ, citing examples like striking with Giga Chikadze instead of wrestling and getting injured against Pat Sabatini. He acknowledges Emmers' talent and well-rounded skills, including a significant reach advantage. He believes Emmers can win if he fights smart, but warns against betting on him at -210. He predicts a decision victory.
Cody picks Jenkins, agreeing with Paul. He notes Emmers's poor decisions and inactivity, and thinks Jenkins can win a striking battle. He expects a decision.
Connor picks Jenkins, impressed by his low-kicking and combination punching. He notes that Jenkins creatively sets up low kicks from various angles and uses them to set up hands and body punches. Connor thinks Emmers will struggle with Jenkins' low kicks because Emmers doesn't have a way to block or protect his leg. He also notes that Emmers' boxing is very Bobby Green-like, relying on sliding away and not sitting down on punches, which could make him hard to track but also leaves his leg exposed. Connor believes Jenkins' intuitive scrambling and ground game are also advantages.
Daniel Levi picks Jamall Emmers, citing his experience, length, and well-rounded game. He notes Emmers's wrestling and striking, and his ability to mix them. He acknowledges Jenkins's leg kicks and potential but thinks Emmers is ahead at this stage. He is not betting at -210 but picks Emmers.
The host picks Jamall Emmers to win by decision. He believes Emmers has the speed and striking advantage, and if he uses his fight IQ, he can stuff takedowns and pick Jenkins apart. He notes Jenkins is a good prospect but thinks this is a step up too far. He would only take Emmers around -150, but thinks he wins.
Paul picks Jenkins, citing Emmers's questionable fight IQ and inactivity. He thinks Jenkins can outbox him and that Emmers may not use his wrestling. He notes the plus money is attractive.
The Guru picks Jamall Emmers, citing his experience against top competition and reach advantage. He feels Jack Jenkins' win over Don Shainis was unimpressive and that Emmers, after shaking off rust, will perform better. He predicts Emmers will keep the fight at range and win a 2-1 decision, with Jenkins having moments inside but too little too late.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Jenkins. He notes that Jenkins' low-kicking and combination punching are excellent, and he creatively sets up low kicks from various angles. Zane thinks Emmers will struggle with Jenkins' low kicks because Emmers doesn't have a way to block or protect his leg. He also notes that Emmers' boxing is very Bobby Green-like, relying on sliding away and not sitting down on punches, which could make him hard to track but also leaves his leg exposed. Zane believes Jenkins' intuitive scrambling and ground game are also advantages.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Jenkins | 0 | 82 of 123 | 66% | 100 of 150 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 6:00 |
| Don Shainis | 0 | 50 of 102 | 49% | 128 of 187 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 2 | 2:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Jenkins | 0 | 34 of 59 | 57% | 35 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Don Shainis | 0 | 25 of 55 | 45% | 28 of 58 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 2 | Jack Jenkins | 0 | 23 of 33 | 69% | 25 of 35 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
| Don Shainis | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 58 of 74 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 2 | 1:30 | |
| 3 | Jack Jenkins | 0 | 25 of 31 | 80% | 40 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:01 |
| Don Shainis | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 42 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Jenkins | 82 of 123 | 66% | 45 of 81 | 23 of 26 | 14 of 16 | 53 of 90 | 21 of 24 | 8 of 9 |
| Don Shainis | 50 of 102 | 49% | 26 of 68 | 17 of 23 | 7 of 11 | 29 of 73 | 14 of 21 | 7 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Jenkins | 34 of 59 | 57% | 13 of 35 | 12 of 13 | 9 of 11 | 24 of 49 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Don Shainis | 25 of 55 | 45% | 9 of 34 | 11 of 13 | 5 of 8 | 16 of 43 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jack Jenkins | 23 of 33 | 69% | 11 of 19 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 21 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Don Shainis | 15 of 28 | 53% | 10 of 19 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 14 | 4 of 8 | 5 of 6 | |
| 3 | Jack Jenkins | 25 of 31 | 80% | 21 of 27 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 9 |
| Don Shainis | 10 of 19 | 52% | 7 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Jack Jenkins, describing him as a powerful striker with multiple tools, though he notes Jenkins can be stiff and doesn't flow smoothly between striking and grappling. He believes Jenkins' power and leg kicks will be too much for Don Shainis, who is tough but limited. He considers it a safe bet but wants to see Jenkins mix his skills more.
Big Brady thinks Jenkins is a solid fighter with good striking and wrestling. He expects Shainis to come out aggressively but fade, and Jenkins to take over. He predicts a decision win for Jenkins, noting Shainis's low level of competition.
Cody is confident Jenkins wins, citing his pressure, wrestling, and cardio. He notes Shainis was submitted quickly by Sadiq Yusuff and doesn't have the skills to hang. He thinks Jenkins will wear him down with leg kicks and takedowns, likely winning inside the distance or by decision. He took Jenkins over 2 takedowns on PrizePicks.
Connor picks Jenkins, agreeing that Shainis is easily swept and has no control in grappling. He notes that Shainis is gritty but everything is on the razor's edge, and that Jenkins' wrestling, though flawed, will be enough to take Shainis down and control him.
Jenkins is the more complete fighter with superior striking and grappling. Shainis was finished quickly by Sadiq Yusuf in his UFC debut. Jenkins' top pressure and ground-and-pound will be dominant. Shainis may have some success with calf kicks, but Jenkins will take him down and control the fight. Jenkins' cardio allows him to maintain pressure for 15 minutes. He should win a dominant decision, though a finish is possible.
Paul picks Jenkins, noting Shainis's poor UFC debut and lack of a well-rounded game. He thinks Jenkins' leg kicks and wrestling will be too much. He mentions Jenkins is not a finisher but should control the fight.
The MMA Guru picks Jack Jenkins over Don Shainis, criticizing Shainis's record and noting his loss to Jay Ellis as a sign of low level. He believes Jenkins is fundamentally sound and patient, and will finish Shainis in the third round by TKO, matching his contender series performance.
Zane picks Jenkins, describing him as a ground-and-pound specialist with a sticky scrambling style. He notes that Jenkins has a limited game but that Shainis loves getting out-grappled and has poor control. Zane expects Jenkins to get to his spots and flatten Shainis on the ground, despite Jenkins' terrible shot and lack of striking.
Gabriel Santos - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Jenkins | 1 | 34 of 48 | 70% | 39 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:20 |
| Gabriel Santos | 0 | 39 of 61 | 63% | 96 of 123 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 2 | 0 | 6:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Jenkins | 1 | 28 of 36 | 77% | 33 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Gabriel Santos | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 22 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:50 | |
| 2 | Jack Jenkins | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Gabriel Santos | 0 | 24 of 32 | 75% | 58 of 69 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:48 | |
| 3 | Jack Jenkins | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gabriel Santos | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 16 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 1:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Jenkins | 34 of 48 | 70% | 22 of 35 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 7 | 13 of 22 | 5 of 6 | 16 of 20 |
| Gabriel Santos | 39 of 61 | 63% | 26 of 44 | 6 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 23 of 45 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Jenkins | 28 of 36 | 77% | 19 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 16 of 20 |
| Gabriel Santos | 9 of 20 | 45% | 3 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jack Jenkins | 5 of 11 | 45% | 2 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gabriel Santos | 24 of 32 | 75% | 19 of 25 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 12 | |
| 3 | Jack Jenkins | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gabriel Santos | 6 of 9 | 66% | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Big Brady is a big fan of Gabriel Santos, believing he is much better than his 1-2 UFC record indicates. He notes Santos's well-rounded skills, power, and BJJ black belt. He thinks Santos has a significant grappling advantage over Jack Jenkins, who was taken down and controlled by Jamal Emmers. Brady predicts Santos will win a decision, possibly with a submission.
Santos is considered the better fighter, slicker with Muay Thai and more aggressive with BJJ. His Muay Thai will allow him to check Jenkins' kicks and counter with straight shots. The fight is expected to go to decision with Santos winning.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Santos | 0 | 41 of 92 | 44% | 96 of 160 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Yi Zha | 1 | 76 of 112 | 67% | 110 of 150 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 6:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriel Santos | 0 | 23 of 41 | 56% | 23 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yi Zha | 1 | 46 of 73 | 63% | 46 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 | |
| 2 | Gabriel Santos | 0 | 15 of 40 | 37% | 23 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Yi Zha | 0 | 19 of 27 | 70% | 32 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:23 | |
| 3 | Gabriel Santos | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 50 of 68 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yi Zha | 0 | 11 of 12 | 91% | 32 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Santos | 41 of 92 | 44% | 26 of 71 | 8 of 13 | 7 of 8 | 40 of 90 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Yi Zha | 76 of 112 | 67% | 45 of 79 | 17 of 18 | 14 of 15 | 53 of 85 | 5 of 5 | 18 of 22 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriel Santos | 23 of 41 | 56% | 14 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 23 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Yi Zha | 46 of 73 | 63% | 23 of 48 | 12 of 13 | 11 of 12 | 34 of 57 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 12 | |
| 2 | Gabriel Santos | 15 of 40 | 37% | 11 of 33 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yi Zha | 19 of 27 | 70% | 12 of 20 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Gabriel Santos | 3 of 11 | 27% | 1 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Yi Zha | 11 of 12 | 91% | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 |
Angelo picks Yi Zha as an underdog because he is a powerful grappler who averages almost five takedowns per fight and is always looking for submissions. He believes Yi can find success even if Gabriel Santos gets the first takedown, and that Yi's grappling is good enough to stay safe and make something happen. He notes that Yi is plus 214 and may have value in prop bets like plus 3.5 rounds or win inside distance.
Big Brady picks Gabriel Santos to win by decision. He is very high on Santos despite his 0-2 UFC record, believing he was robbed against Murphy. Brady thinks Santos is better everywhere: better striker, and his BJJ black belt should neutralize Yi Zha's grappling. He notes Yi Zha's record is misleading and that Santos is much better than his record indicates.
Cody agrees with Paul, citing Santos' strong wrestling and striking. He notes Zha's takedown defense is poor and Santos has fought tougher competition. He expects Santos to neutralize Zha and win a decision or get a finish.
Daniel is a big fan of Santos's exciting style but acknowledges his defensive flaws. He criticizes Yi Zha's padded record and boring wrestling style. He thinks Santos's volume, pressure, and activity off his back will overwhelm Zha, and that Zha's takedowns won't be enough to win. He expects Santos to get his first UFC win.
Santos is the better mixed martial artist despite being 0-2 in the UFC. He has slick BJJ and striking, and should be able to handle Yi Zha's pressure and wrestling. Yi Zha is aggressive but leaves openings. Santos can reverse positions and win on the feet. The under 2.5 rounds at plus money is also favored due to both fighters' pace.
Paul picks Santos, noting his wrestling and striking are superior to Zha's. He believes Santos can take Zha down and control him, and has a better plan B if the wrestling fails. He acknowledges Santos' cardio concerns but thinks he can win two of three rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Gabriel Santos over Yi Zha. He dismisses Yi Zha's record as inflated from the Road to UFC show, noting that anyone good has beaten him. He praises Santos for taking Lerone Murphy to a split decision on short notice and for his training at a good gym. He notes Santos is on a two-fight losing streak but believes this is his last chance and he will win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Onama | 1 | 53 of 104 | 50% | 59 of 118 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:53 |
| Gabriel Santos | 0 | 39 of 73 | 53% | 56 of 90 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 1:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Onama | 0 | 27 of 52 | 51% | 30 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Gabriel Santos | 0 | 25 of 50 | 50% | 33 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 0:36 | |
| 2 | David Onama | 1 | 26 of 52 | 50% | 29 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:30 |
| Gabriel Santos | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 23 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Onama | 53 of 104 | 50% | 47 of 95 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 42 of 86 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 13 |
| Gabriel Santos | 39 of 73 | 53% | 22 of 46 | 9 of 14 | 8 of 13 | 36 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Onama | 27 of 52 | 51% | 23 of 48 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
| Gabriel Santos | 25 of 50 | 50% | 14 of 32 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 10 | 23 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | David Onama | 26 of 52 | 50% | 24 of 47 | 0 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 39 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 11 |
| Gabriel Santos | 14 of 23 | 60% | 8 of 14 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Gabriel Santos, citing his aggression and ability to back Onama up and grind him down like Nate Landwehr did. He notes Santos is fast, strong, and has slick submissions. He mentions David Onama is a great underdog at +195/+200 and hits hard, but Santos gets hit. He would bet the over 1.5 rounds if available.
Big Brady picks Gabriel Santos, impressed by his performance against Lerone Murphy despite the loss. He describes Santos as a killer with next-level grappling and dangerous striking, comparing him to Charles Oliveira. He notes Onama's poor performance against Nate Landwehr where he gassed out. He expects Santos to weather an early storm and finish Onama in the second round, possibly by submission.
Cody picks Santos, emphasizing his explosive style and wrestling. He notes Santos's ability to take down and control opponents, and thinks Onama's striking will be neutralized by Santos's pressure and takedowns. He expects Santos by decision.
Connor picks Santos, agreeing with Zane. He highlights Santos's impressive debut against Laron Murphy on short notice and his superior technique. Onama is reactive and lacks discipline, while Santos is a solid professional who will take advantage of Onama's mistakes. Connor notes that Onama's best wins are against lesser competition and that he struggles against disciplined fighters.
Daniel Levi picks Gabriel Santos, citing his technical soundness, heart, and grappling upside. He thinks Onama is athletic but defensively vulnerable, and Santos can win on feet or mat. He notes Santos's close fight with Lerone Murphy and his LFA title. He is not interested at -230 but picks Santos.
The host picks Gabriel Santos to win by submission in the second or third round. He believes Santos is the far superior fighter with great aggression, forward pressure, and a solid Jiu-Jitsu game. He thinks Santos will wear on Onama and eventually get him out of there, while Onama's only path to victory is a Hail Mary knockout. He expects Santos to dominate.
Paul picks Santos, impressed by his debut performance against Lauren Murphy on short notice. He highlights Santos's takedowns and grappling, and questions Onama's takedown defense. He expects Santos to win by decision and considers betting Santos by decision.
The Guru picks Gabriel Santos based on his performance against Lerone Murphy, which he believes Santos arguably won. He notes Santos has a good chin, took the Murphy fight on short notice, and showed grit. He criticizes Onama's cardio, saying he falls off after the first round, and points to Onama's losses to Mason Jones and Nate Landwehr as evidence. He predicts Santos wins by third-round finish or decision.
Zane picks Santos, praising his discipline, well-roundedness, and technical striking. He notes that Onama is talented but lacks control and makes terrible decisions, often turning fights into brawls. Santos is a finished product who controls pace, works the body, and has good wrestling. Zane expects Santos to exploit Onama's tendency to gas and scramble wildly.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 93 of 161 | 57% | 115 of 183 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Gabriel Santos | 0 | 69 of 122 | 56% | 87 of 141 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 4:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 33 of 58 | 56% | 37 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:59 |
| Gabriel Santos | 0 | 36 of 54 | 66% | 37 of 55 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 25 of 44 | 56% | 36 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
| Gabriel Santos | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 26 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 35 of 59 | 59% | 42 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Gabriel Santos | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 24 of 40 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 93 of 161 | 57% | 59 of 117 | 27 of 37 | 7 of 7 | 77 of 144 | 12 of 12 | 4 of 5 |
| Gabriel Santos | 69 of 122 | 56% | 32 of 73 | 24 of 34 | 13 of 15 | 55 of 105 | 14 of 15 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 33 of 58 | 56% | 18 of 39 | 12 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 54 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Gabriel Santos | 36 of 54 | 66% | 16 of 31 | 13 of 16 | 7 of 7 | 29 of 45 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 25 of 44 | 56% | 13 of 30 | 10 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 36 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 3 |
| Gabriel Santos | 13 of 32 | 40% | 8 of 22 | 3 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 27 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 35 of 59 | 59% | 28 of 48 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 30 of 54 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Gabriel Santos | 20 of 36 | 55% | 8 of 20 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 6 | 17 of 33 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo thinks Murphy should win because he is the better striker with good footwork and power, and he has a full camp. However, he is wary of Murphy's layoff and the short-notice opponent. He notes Murphy's takedown defense is low but he scrambles well. He is staying away from betting due to the uncertainty.
Big Brady picks Murphy, citing his power (knockout wins over Makwan Amirkhani and Ricardo Ramos) and Santos' hittability and questionable durability. He notes Santos is dangerous everywhere but took the fight on short notice and is making a long flight. He predicts a second-round knockout, but acknowledges Santos could have success early.
Cody picks Murphy, citing his precise striking, lateral movement, and high ring IQ. He notes Murphy has fought good wrestlers and defended takedowns well. He thinks Santos, on short notice, won't be able to take Murphy down and will lose a decision. He mentions Murphy's 16-month layoff is a concern but believes he's still a good fighter.
Connor picks Murphy but expects a close fight. He notes that Murphy starts slow but is resourceful and has great cardio, often coming back to win. Santos is a solid, well-rounded fighter but may run out of ideas as the fight goes on. Connor also mentions the short-notice factor favoring Murphy.
Jacob picks Murphy but with low confidence due to his defensive wrestling holes. He thinks Murphy is the better striker but if Santos gets the fight to the ground, it could be trouble. He notes Murphy's takedown defense has been improving. He is not betting but would feel better if Murphy stuffs the first takedown.
Murphy is explosive with big power and a good calf kick, but has grappling flaws and a layoff due to head injury. Santos is a short-notice replacement with a wild pressure style and defensive holes. Murphy's speed and power should exploit Santos's striking deficiencies, leading to a knockout. The fight doesn't go to decision is the favorite spot.
Paul picks Murphy but hesitantly, as he hasn't done full research on Santos. He says Murphy is a solid fighter on a good run, but the layoff and short-notice opponent are unknowns. He says the pick is Murphy but could change after looking at tape.
The MMA Guru picks Lerone Murphy over Gabriel Santos, acknowledging Santos is a dangerous prospect but noting he is on short notice. Murphy has a full camp and has shown composure against tough opponents like Zubaira Tukhugov. He predicts Murphy will win a 29-28 decision after a rough first round, trusting his experience and well-rounded game.
Zane also picks Murphy, noting that Murphy's ability to adapt and his physicality will be key. He points out that Santos looked good in his LFA fight but may struggle with Murphy's pressure and clinch work. Zane expects momentum shifts and a competitive fight.
Expert Picks (2)
Big Brady is a big fan of Gabriel Santos, believing he is much better than his 1-2 UFC record indicates. He notes Santos's well-rounded skills, power, and BJJ black belt. He thinks Santos has a significant grappling advantage over Jack Jenkins, who was taken down and controlled by Jamal Emmers. Brady predicts Santos will win a decision, possibly with a submission.
Santos is considered the better fighter, slicker with Muay Thai and more aggressive with BJJ. His Muay Thai will allow him to check Jenkins' kicks and counter with straight shots. The fight is expected to go to decision with Santos winning.
Comments (2)
Jack Jenkins is probably on the drugs
Gabriel looked in great shape and his performance matched. Jack clinched early into rd2 and paid.
**Pick:** Jack Jenkins (Unanimous) **Analysis:** This is a very favorable matchup for Jenkins. While acknowledging Jenkins has a narrow game (crushing low kicks, dangerous top position), Ramon Tavares is the perfect opponent to highlight those strengths. Tavares is a fighter who is an expert at letting things happen to him and had significant trouble with leg kicks in his fight with Davey Grant. This will be a fight where Jenkins looks dominant. **Props:** No specific props were mentioned.
**Pick:** Jack Jenkins **Analysis:** Major caveat: Jenkins is returning from a severe throat injury (air leak in thyroid cartilage). If Jenkins is healthy and returns to form, he will win decisively. Taveras is too heavy on his lead leg and highly susceptible to Jenkins' devastating leg kicks. **Props:** No specific props were mentioned.
**Pick:** Jack Jenkins **Analysis:** The primary reason for this pick is Jenkins' powerful leg kicks, which will be the deciding factor. Jenkins will be able to withstand Tavares' early boxing combinations and progressively break him down with leg kicks. Tavares has potential issues with making weight and traveling to Australia, which could affect his performance. **Props:** No specific props were mentioned.