Career Averages - Shamil Gaziev
Career Averages - Thomas Petersen
Shamil Gaziev
Thomas Petersen
Shamil Gaziev - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 41 of 100 | 41% | 51 of 110 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:36 |
| Brando Peričić | 1 | 89 of 163 | 54% | 100 of 177 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 25 of 47 | 53% | 34 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:46 |
| Brando Peričić | 0 | 42 of 87 | 48% | 52 of 100 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 16 of 53 | 30% | 17 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Brando Peričić | 1 | 47 of 76 | 61% | 48 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamil Gaziev | 41 of 100 | 41% | 30 of 88 | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 92 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Brando Peričić | 89 of 163 | 54% | 62 of 134 | 14 of 16 | 13 of 13 | 81 of 150 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamil Gaziev | 25 of 47 | 53% | 15 of 37 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 39 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Brando Peričić | 42 of 87 | 48% | 33 of 77 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 35 of 75 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Shamil Gaziev | 16 of 53 | 30% | 15 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brando Peričić | 47 of 76 | 61% | 29 of 57 | 10 of 11 | 8 of 8 | 46 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The good news is that the second straight heavyweight bout on the UFC Perth main card almost has to be an improvement on the first, but we will see what Gaziev (14-2; 3-2 UFC) and Pericic (6-1; 2-0 UFC) have to say about it. Dan Movahedi is the third man in the cage, and Pericic wastes no time in flicking out a left high kick off of Gaziev’s guard. Gaziev changes levels, drives Pericic to the fence and dumps him to the canvas with a double-leg. Pericic remains calm, turns his back and stands up against the fence. Gaziev stays glued to Pericic’s back, driving a few knees to the thighs but mostly appearing to wait for a chance to drag his man back to the ground. Movahedi warns the two to stay busy, then after another warning, breaks them up and sends them back to the center of the cage. There, Pericic quickly nails Gaziev with a laser right hand, then another. Gaziev stands his ground and tries to swing back, but Pericic slips the punches easily and blasts his foe with another salvo of punches. Gaziev is hurt and reeling, with Pericic in pursuit. Pericic snaps Gaziev’s head back with a right cross, then an uppercut. They clinch against the fence and the offense slows. They come off the fence and Pericic lands another pair of long, straight punches. Gaziev catches Pericic with a wild haymaker and he’s hurt! Gaziev tries to follow up but Pericic recovers quickly and lands another combination. Gaziev hits him with another big left hand. The horn sounds on a wild round. 10-9 Pericic.
Round 2
The heavyweights meet in the center of the cage and pick right back up where they left off. Both men land in the ensuing clash, but Pericic gets the better of it, punctuating things with a nice low kick as well. Pericic’s jab is far too quick and accurate for Gaziev to deal with, but he wades right through it and tags the taller man with a pair of hooks. Pericic hurts Gaziev with a one-two and Gaziev goes stumbling back into the fence, but again recovers by the time Pericic can get there to capitalize. Two minutes in, Pericic rocks Gaziev with yet another flurry of punches, and once again Gaziev recovers enough to throw back. They clinch against the cage and take a bit of a breather, but referee Movahedi is telling them to stay busy almost immediately. He separates them moments later and Gaziev is clearly in trouble, mouth hanging open, hands low. He is still trying to throw power shots, but Pericic is the fresher man and his hands are simply too fast.
A final right cross puts Gaziev on his back near the base of the fence and no follow-up is needed, as Movahedi sees that there’s no fight left in the Dagestani.
Brutal work by Brando Pericic in a wild heavyweight brawl.
The Official Result
Brando Pericic def. Shamil Gaziev R2 3:44 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Brando Peričić, relying on his athleticism and striking. He acknowledges Shamil Gaziev's wrestling potential but believes Brando's takedown defense will hold up. He notes that if Brando defends early takedowns, he will outstrike Gaziev. However, he admits uncertainty about Brando's takedown defense at a high level.
Big Brady picks Brando Peričić to win by first-round knockout. He praises Peričić's massive power and aggressive style, comparing him to a heavyweight Terrance McKinney. Brady notes that Gaziev is overrated and coming off a knockout loss, and believes Peričić's power will be too much early in the fight.
Cody picks Peričić, calling him 'his boy' and believing he will knock out Gaziev. He notes Gaziev's poor cardio and wrestling, and thinks Peričić's kickboxing and volume will overwhelm him.
Daniel Vreeland picks Brando Peričić based on momentum, but is not confident due to Gaziev's takedown threat and Peričić's untested chin. He notes Gaziev's cardio issues and Peričić's ability to get up from takedowns.
Perišić is a slight favorite with dangerous striking and good takedown defense shown against Sutherland. Gaziev is slow, clunky, and has poor takedown entries. Perišić should keep the fight standing and knock Gaziev out, but his cardio is unknown. A speculative bet, not too big.
Lucrative James picks Brando Peričić to win via knockout in round one. He admits bias as he knows Peričić personally, but believes Peričić's firepower and Gaziev's recent knockout loss make it likely. He notes Gaziev is a tough opponent but expects Peričić to get the finish.
The host fades Peričić, believing Gaziev's strength and wrestling will get the fight to the ground and lead to a TKO or submission. He thinks Peričić still has grappling holes and Gaziev is the right stylistic matchup to exploit them. The host notes Gaziev's explosive grappling and power.
Paul picks Peričić, citing his youth and pace, and questions Gaziev's cardio and wrestling effectiveness at heavyweight. He believes Peričić will outland and finish him.
The MMA Guru picks Brando Peričić, praising his well-rounded skills and grappling. He believes Peričić will maul Gaziev's legs and finish him in round one. He notes Gaziev's hand speed but thinks Peričić is a better-trained martial artist.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 2 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 2 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 10 of 21 | 47% | 8 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Shamil Gaziev | 6 of 15 | 40% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 10 of 21 | 47% | 8 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Shamil Gaziev | 6 of 15 | 40% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cortes-Acosta (-160); Gaziev (+130)
Round 1
It’s time for the big boys again. Let us hope it is nothing like the travesty of the curtain jerker today, and that there is no eye poke silliness to speak of. Looking to become the heavyweight version of Donald Cerrone, Cortes-Acosta (15-2, 8-2 UFC) steps in on short notice to replace Serghei Spivac. In an amusing twist of fate, “Salsa Boy” previously replaced Gaziev (14-1, 3-1 UFC) against Spivac earlier this year. While Cortes-Acosta wants to fight six times this year—meaning, he wants to serve as a replacement fighter for one of the next two final UFC cards in 2026 providing he gets out of this unscathed—he will have to handle the Bahraini first. Referee Lukasz Bosacki has his hands full as these big lugs tipped the scales at a combined 527 pounds on Friday, but he takes a breath of relief as they touch gloves and do not appear to hold any ill will towards one another.
Gaziev fearlessly marches forward to start the fight, putting Cortes-Acosta’s back to the fence and aiming straight punches at him. Cortes-Acosta flicks a few jabs back at him, and Gaziev smiles at him and sways from most. Gaziev clubs Cortes-Acosta with a left hand, and Cortes-Acosta snaps into action and counters Gaziev with a balance-destroying right. Cortes-Acosta tries to pound out Gaziev when he hits the floor, but Gaziev stands and backs off, shaking off the cobwebs. Cortes-Acosta, smelling blood in the water, starts to set something up as he flashes jab after jab.
When the opening presents itself, he hurls a fastball of a right hand that crashes square into Gaziev’s temple. The Bahrain native collapses to his back and clutches his face, still with it but no longer defending himself. Cortes-Acosta drops to a knee to deliver one final hammerfist, but it glances off Bosacki’s protective arm as he has already stepped in to wave things off given Gaziev’s sign of physical surrender.
The fight over, Gaziev slowly rolls to his knees, and he is beside himself after getting smoked like that. That marks four wins in 2025 for Cortes-Acosta, who still wants one more—on December 13 at the year-end Fight Night—and dons his eye patch and bandana to represent his pirate self.
The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Shamil Gaziev R1 1:22 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Shamil Gaziev over Waldo Cortes Acosta, despite mocking Gaziev's appearance. He notes Gaziev is a much better striker with power and capable wrestling, while Acosta is a grappler who can be outworked and out-athleted. Gaziev should dominate on the feet and keep the fight standing, leading to a win.
Big Brady leans Shamil Gaziev by first-round knockout, despite acknowledging Spivak's inconsistency. He believes Gaziev's power and forward pressure will overwhelm Spivak, who has been knocked out by lesser fighters. He notes Spivak's path via grappling but can't count on him to execute.
Cody picks Shamil Gaziev but is not confident. He notes both fighters have awful cardio, but Gaziev has better wrestling and power. Cody believes Gaziev can knock out Spivac early, as Spivac gasses quickly and has poor takedown defense. He mentions the location in Qatar might favor Gaziev.
Connor picks Spivak (Waldo Cortes Acosta), predicting that Gaziev will gas after an early takedown attempt, allowing Spivak to take over with his clinch and jab. He notes Gaziev's poor defensive striking and tendency to fade, while Spivak manages fights well. Connor acknowledges Gaziev's speed and power could lead to an early KO.
Lucrative James picks Shamil Gaziev, citing his power striking and durability. He notes Sergey Spivac's questionable mentality and recent poor performances. He believes Gaziev's power will be too much and predicts a knockout win. He also mentions Spivac's camp change as a potential negative.
Gaziev has knockout power and physicality. Spivac is on a losing streak and may struggle with Gaziev's strength. Gaziev should land a big shot and finish Spivac by the second round.
Paul leans towards Gaziev, citing his wrestling and power. He notes that Spivac has poor cardio and has been finished when tired. Paul believes Gaziev can take Spivac down or knock him out early, but acknowledges it's a greasy fight.
The MMA Guru picks Shamil Gaziev over Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing Gaziev's pressure and ability to barrage opponents. He notes Spivak's vulnerability when pressured. He expects a close decision, with Gaziev undeniable as the fight goes on.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Spivak. He notes that Gaziev's cardio is a major issue and that Spivak's reach and jab will become factors as the fight progresses. Zane sees Spivak as a competent heavyweight who can survive early danger and take over late.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamil Gaziev | 1 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 19 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamil Gaziev | 1 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 19 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamil Gaziev | 14 of 32 | 43% | 9 of 27 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Thomas Petersen | 19 of 34 | 55% | 4 of 18 | 7 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 18 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamil Gaziev | 14 of 32 | 43% | 9 of 27 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Thomas Petersen | 19 of 34 | 55% | 4 of 18 | 7 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 18 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Action moves to the heavyweight division, where Gaziev (13-1, 2-1 UFC) squares off with a former Legacy Fighting Alliance champion in Petersen (9-2, 1-1 UFC). Herzog administers he law and order. Customary glove touch gets them started. Gaziev takes the center and fires off two punches. Short elbow on the inside from Gaziev. Petersen answers with a low kick, then another. They trade right hands. Body kick from Gaziev. Petersen paws with his jab, then fires one to the body. Short right hook finds the mark for Gaziev, who plods forward against the southpaw. Petersen completes a takedown but fails to corral his opponent on the mat. Gaziev easily gets back to his feet and connects with two straight rights. Chopping right hand from Gaziev.
They circle in the center of the cage, and Gaziev connects with a crushing right hook that floors the American where he stands. No follow-up shots are required
.
The Official Result
Shamil Gaziev def. Thomas Petersen—TKO (Punch) 3:12 R1
Angelo picks Shamil Gaziev, believing he is the better fighter despite a loss to Rozenstruik. He notes that Gaziev has improved his cardio and bounced back with a decision win. He thinks Gaziev's power and physicality will be too much for Thomas Petersen, who is solid but not spectacular. He includes Gaziev in a parlay with Mike Davis.
Big Brady thinks Shamil Gaziev has awful cardio but will likely knock out Thomas Petersen early. He notes Gaziev has much more power and Petersen is hitable. Brady expects a first-round knockout, but says if the fight extends it will be 'greasy'. He is staying away from betting Gaziev at -330 and might live bet Petersen.
Petersen's wrestling background will allow him to keep the fight upright and use his jab and volume to outwork Gaziev, who struggles when he can't secure takedowns or control against the cage. Petersen is a plus-300 underdog and is expected to win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Shamil Gaziev to win by third-round finish. He calls Gaziev 'The Blob' and says he pushes forward and is there to win. He thinks Gaziev will start to pick up the pace as the fight goes on and get a late finish over Thomas Petersen, who he calls a 'fat idiot' with unimpressive skills.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 31 of 46 | 67% | 89 of 114 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 11:58 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 27 of 58 | 46% | 57 of 95 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 24 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:32 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 12 of 17 | 70% | 12 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 21 of 28 | 75% | 29 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:28 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 20 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 36 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:58 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 25 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamil Gaziev | 31 of 46 | 67% | 22 of 37 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 25 | 15 of 17 | 4 of 4 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 27 of 58 | 46% | 18 of 45 | 5 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 53 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamil Gaziev | 8 of 13 | 61% | 7 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 12 of 17 | 70% | 7 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Shamil Gaziev | 21 of 28 | 75% | 13 of 20 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 12 | 15 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 10 of 25 | 40% | 9 of 22 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 21 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Shamil Gaziev | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 5 of 16 | 31% | 2 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gaziev (-238), Mayes (+195)
Round 1
The lone heavyweight contest on the fight card plays out on the prelims rather than slotted undeservedly on the main card. Fresh off a deflating headlining loss to suffer his first pro defeat, Gaziev (12-1, 1-1 UFC) is hungry to bounce back from that setback at the expense of Kentucky judoka Mayes (11-6, 1 NC; 4-4, 1 NC UFC). The reputation of the fictitious Kentucky Judo Federation is at stake over the next 15 minutes, and referee Keith Peterson is ready to handle the nonsense. There is a clap of hands, and Mayes says hello with punches, a low kick and a looping left hand. Gaziev backs him off with a one-two, and Mayes fires back but is tagged with a right hand. Mayes backs up to the wall as he tries to get his mind right, and Gaziev shoots for a double and clasps his hands. Gaziev slams his man to the floor, and the entire Octagon shudders at the impact. The Bahraini by way of Russia moves to half guard with ease, where he frames off the face with his elbow and jams it down. Gaziev frees his hand from the grasp of his foe to slug him in the chops with two right hands, and he keeps “Lord Kong” flat on his back with no sign of getting back to his feet as there are over three minutes left in the round. Gaziev considers taking side control but prefers the half guard to maintain control, and he winds up with a hard right hand that bounces off the forehead. Gaziev lands right hands when he is able to wriggle his arm out of the grip of his adversary, landing enough to keep Peterson from standing them up. Gaziev presses down with his shoulder for a potential arm-triangle choke, and he sits up to land more offense. Gaziev fights off Mayes trying to sit up and punches him in the face. Gaziev hooks his arm around the neck again to keep Mayes flat, lumping him up with short but powerful blows. When the 10-second clapper sounds, Gaziev punches his way into an arm-triangle choke from the other side, but the horn toots before it is completed.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Round 2
The heavyweights meander towards one another as the second round opens, and Mayes keeps his man honest by busting him in the chops with several hooks. The blows are strong but largely one, and then another, rather than chained together. Mayes gets in an uppercut and shoots for his own takedown, and Gaziev grabs pursues a takedown. Mayes grabs the shorts of his foe, pulling them way up, and Peterson warns him for the grab and calls time to issue another warning instead of taking a point. They resume where they left off, and Mayes ducks, seeing an elbow whiz by his head. Mayes gets back to boxing range, slinging hooks, and Gaziev clashes forward and slams his head into the chin of his foe. Peterson observes it but does not call time, and Gaziev fights his way into a clinch as Mayes is not overly thrilled. Gaziev drives knees to the solar plexus, and he rings Mayes’ bell with an elbow. Mayes staggers back, away from the clinch, but Gaziev snags him again and starts peppering him again with knees. As the heavyweights slow to a crawl, the commentary booth remarks that the temperature feels like over 100 degrees Fahrenheit with humidity in the arena around 75%. The big men are pouring sweat and are totally wiped out, kneeing one another with short shots as Gaziev is warned by draping his hands over the fencing. Mayes sneaks in a left hand, and Gaziev pays him back with a thumping knee. Gaziev has no interest in letting go or deviating from his approach, clinging to the Kentucky native and spamming knees until the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Round 3
Mayes starts out the final round with a fresh head of steam, racing in with punches that are telegraphed and largely miss the mark. Gaziev avoids some, eats others, and responds when caught. Mayes swings hard to the liver, and Gaziev runs at him and bowls him over, landing in half guard and returning to smothering top control form. Gaziev stays just busy enough to not have Peterson warn him for inactivity, smacking Mayes in the dome and otherwise making his life miserable. Gaziev holds on with his forearm, and Mayes complains about something. Mayes starts talking to Gaziev, and Peterson does call for more action. Gaziev answers with a few fists, and Mayes answers him with words that Gaziev may or may not understand. Gaziev postures up to drop down heavy left hands, and Mayes keeps chattering and softly lands punches to the side from his back. Mayes holds on and is trying to have a conversation, mentioning that the fans are booing Gaziev. Gaziev controls and grinds, sapping time away and ending the rough matchup disappointingly.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev (30-27 Gaziev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev (30-27 Gaziev)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev (30-27 Gaziev)
The Official Result
Shamil Gaziev def. Don’Tale Mayes via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo is confident Gaziev bounces back from his first loss, believing he bit off more than he could chew in his last fight. He thinks Gaziev is the more powerful striker with good takedowns, and that this is a good rebound fight. He expects Gaziev to win but notes cardio concerns.
Big Brady thinks Gaziev should be able to destroy Mayes if he is anywhere near the real deal, comparing Mayes to Martin Budai whom Gaziev finished impressively. He notes Mayes does not like getting hit and has been finished on the mat multiple times. He worries about Gaziev's gas tank if the fight extends past 1.5 rounds but predicts an early finish by first-round knockout.
Cody picks Shamil Gaziev, noting that Mayes has poor takedown defense and has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. He thinks Gaziev can use his wrestling and clinch to neutralize Mayes's range striking. Cody acknowledges Gaziev's cardio issues but believes in a three-round fight he can win the first two rounds. He also mentions that Mayes is flat-footed and struggles to get up when taken down.
Daniel picks Gaziev, believing he should be able to pin Mayes against the fence and dirty box him. He notes Mayes is inconsistent and has lost to lower-level competition, while Gaziev's only loss is to a top-10 guy. He expects a similar performance to Gaziev's win over Bud.
Gaziev is coming off a main event loss and will be pissed off. He should steamroll Mayes, finishing him in the first or second round.
Paul picks Shamil Gaziev, noting that Mayes has been taken down by many opponents and has poor get-up game. He thinks Gaziev can use his wrestling to control the fight. Paul acknowledges that both fighters are low-level heavyweights and that Mayes could win if he stuffs takedowns, but he leans toward Gaziev. He also mentions that the fight could be slow and the over might be a play.
The MMA Guru picks Shamil Gaziev over Don'Tale Mayes, despite calling Gaziev 'awful'. He thinks Mayes is 'a bit dumb' and that Gaziev's grappling will be the difference. He expects Gaziev to take Mayes down and wear him out, possibly catching a spinning attack from Mayes. He predicts a fourth-round TKO, though the fight is three rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 127 of 215 | 59% | 140 of 230 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 22 of 68 | 32% | 27 of 75 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 4:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 13 of 31 | 41% | 15 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 12 of 23 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:46 | |
| 2 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 19 of 41 | 46% | 26 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 | |
| 3 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 47 of 75 | 62% | 47 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 5 of 19 | 26% | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 48 of 68 | 70% | 52 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 127 of 215 | 59% | 78 of 158 | 30 of 37 | 19 of 20 | 123 of 209 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Shamil Gaziev | 22 of 68 | 32% | 16 of 59 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 60 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 13 of 31 | 41% | 8 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Shamil Gaziev | 8 of 18 | 44% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | |
| 2 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 19 of 41 | 46% | 11 of 32 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Shamil Gaziev | 7 of 19 | 36% | 2 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 47 of 75 | 62% | 24 of 48 | 16 of 19 | 7 of 8 | 47 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shamil Gaziev | 5 of 19 | 26% | 5 of 17 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 48 of 68 | 70% | 35 of 53 | 7 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 45 of 64 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Shamil Gaziev | 2 of 12 | 16% | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gaziev (-148), Rozenstruik (+124)
Round 1
It’s all down to the heavyweights tonight. The big men sport nearly identical finish rates, with their primary method of victory by knockout, so referee Marc Goddard might not need to put in 25 minutes of work here. Former kickboxer Rozenstruik (13-5, 7-5 UFC) would like nothing more than to blunt the momentum of the undefeated Gaziev (12-0, 1-0 UFC), and he will have five rounds or less to spring the minor betting upset. They touch gloves respectfully, and prepare to handle their business. Rozenstruik circles to the outside, lands a leg kick, and gets himself ready to stop a takedown. Gaziev shoots, and he bounces off the fence when he misses. Rozenstruik strafes to the side and lands a right hand that makes Gaziev lick his lips. Rozenstruik scores a leg kick, and he comes up short on an overhand right. Rozenstruik paws out a jab, and his foe backs him to the fence. Gaziev crashes the pocket for a takedown, and Rozenstruik stands him up immediately and smacks him with a right hand. Rozenstruik jabs, and he avoids a huge right hand. Another Gaziev crashing takedown effort gets stopped in its tracks, and Rozenstruik busts his foe’s nose open with his fists. Gaziev shows little setup when he tries to take the fight down, and does not even bend over so much as he runs straight ahead. Rozenstruik briefly knocks him back with a one-two, and Gaziev gets right back to his constant forward pressure. Rozenstruik scores a right hand and then jabs his way out to safety. Gaziev swings as hard as he can with a left and a monstrous right, and Rozenstruik dodges by a matter of inches. Gaziev plods ahead and then lumbers into a clinch, swinging slow punches all the while. Gaziev drops down to scoop up a single, and he lifts the kickboxer up and slams him down. Gaziev connects with a few short punches from above, and keeps his weight pressed down heavily. The round ends with Gaziev sitting up measuring a strike.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Round 2
The big men reach Round 2, and Rozenstruik reintroduces himself with multiple snappy jabs. Gaziev lumbers forward, and Rozenstruik uses head movement to dodge the majority of the big punches coming from the Bahraini. Rozenstruik reaches out with punches and low kicks, and he smiles when eating a jab as they high-five from an exchange. Rozenstruik looks for two punches, and Gaziev sneaks a counter right around the top to back him away. Gaziev pushes out his own jab, and Rozenstruik goes to the body and then reaches out with a one-two. Gaziev smiles when he eats a jab, and he fails to land when swinging at the kickboxer. Gaziev drives a knee right to the belly, and Rozenstruik responds with a single jab. Gaziev swings with more of a hammerfist than a straight punch, and Rozenstruik chops at his lead leg when Gaziev slowly moves forward. Rozenstruik naps out his jab to decent effect, disrupting the oncoming Gaziev until Gaziev simply decides to rumble forward like a tank and go after a single. Rozenstruik uses the wall behind him to keep himself upright, and he pulls his leg down to stop the effort. The two trade knees to the gut, and Gaziev presses tightly to control “Bigi Boy.” Rozenstruik gets in a few more short knees to the body, and Gaziev fails on another takedown effort. Goddard asks them to work as Gaziev stalls out, and Rozenstruik tries to get away again only to be snagged by his opponent and held in the clinch until the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Round 3
It is the third round, and these two heavyweights are quite fatigued to this point. They meet in the middle with a glove touch, and Rozenstruik stands firm and jabs the head and body. “Bigi Boy” lands a leg kick, and he paws out with several jabs to keep Gaziev at bay. Gaziev clubs his foe with a right hand, and he sneaks another right around the jab to get Rozenstruik’s attention. Rozenstruik throws back with a single right after multiple jabs, and Gaziev’s nose is bloodied and his mouth wide open. Gaziev charges, landing a left hand, but he gets stunned with a right hand that nearly dislodges his mouthpiece. Gaziev holds his mouthguard like it is about to fly out, as he appears to be struggling to breathe. Rozenstruik snaps out jab after jab, and blood sprays from Gaziev’s nose when he absorbs each and every blow. Rozenstruik rips a right hand to the body, and he hops away from the offense from Gaziev that is slow and labored. Gaziev continues to shuffle his mouthpiece, and Rozenstruik opens up with a fierce combination ending with a chopping low kick. Gaziev reaches out with his arms outstretched, and Rozenstruik snaps his head back with a mean jab. Gaziev sits down on a right hand counter, and Rozenstruik has to shake it out and backpedal. Rozenstruik gathers his thoughts and jabs away, and when he lands a leg kick, he gets knocked back with a right hand. The kick did enough damage to draw out a minimal limp, and both men stand in front of one another and engage in a brief, fierce exchange to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Round 4
The championship rounds have been reached, much to the surprise of most prognosticators. Rozenstruik does not change his approach, with jabs and leg kicks completely flustering the undefeated fighter. Rozenstruik’s power jab stops Gaziev from hitting him cleanly, until Gaziev decides he is sick of getting hit and runs forward. Gaziev unleashes several big punches, knocking “Bigi Boy” against the fencing, and he shoots for a takedown to follow and try to take back some momentum. Rozenstruik staves it off and slides away to not get hit by an elbow on the break, and he returns to striking range while Gaziev is chewing on his mouthpiece. Rozenstruik jabs the face and chest, and Gaziev glares at him but does not have the energy reserves to do anything more but look angry. Gaziev tries to throw a single punch, and he does not have the gas to reach his opponent. Rozenstruik opens up with a left and a huge right, seeing that Gaziev is spent. He releases several more heavy punches, stinging the unbeaten fighter, and starts feeling himself. Rozenstruik jabs and smacks Gaziev in the face, and he lets Gaziev swing futilely back his direction. Rozenstruik lets go with additional jabs and doubles up on a leg kick as Gaziev looks down at his damaged limb but does not keep attacking. The jab dislodges Gaziev’s gumshield, and Rozenstruik walks off to celebrate the cool moment as Goddard recovers it and has Gaziev replace it. Rozenstruik surges into action as seconds are left in the round, and he shoots for his own takedown so Gaziev sells out defending it, and he bails on it to unload with a flurry of strikes to end the round. As Gaziev sits on his stool, he seems to tell his corner he cannot continue. The translation is not clear, whether he is injured or exhausted or something else. Gaziev stands up, and with his corner still in the cage, Goddard goes over to them all and calls time. Goddard demands that the corner translate what Gaziev was saying, and eventually they inform him that Gaziev says he cannot see. Goddard has the doctor check out Gaziev, but before the physician can determine any lack of vision, Gaziev shakes his head and seems to motion that he is all done tonight after getting beaten up for 20 minutes. Therefore, it is a stoppage via retirement at the end of the fourth round. It is a crucial win for the former kickboxer, as he strips the 0 from Gaziev’s record, and turns a rough patch to 2-1 in his last three. In his post-fight interview, Rozenstruik welcomes any challenge, and many minds immediately go to Derrick Lewis, as the two sluggers have never met. Next week, it is a massive night for the sport as UFC 299 goes down in Miami with a blockbuster lineup. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
The Official Result
Jairzinho Rozenstruik def. Shamil Gaziev R4 5:00 via TKO (Retirement)
Angelo picks Shamil Gaziev, calling the -140 odds a gift. He notes Rozenstruik is one-dimensional and flat-footed, while Gaziev has power, wrestling, and better movement. He has a full unit bet on Gaziev and expects him to win.
Big Brady picks Rozenstruik despite acknowledging Gaziev's power and early finishing ability. He notes that Gaziev has only been past 1.5 rounds once and has cardio concerns, while Rozenstruik has five-round experience and a fifth-round knockout. He believes if the fight extends, it heavily favors Rozenstruik. However, he admits he has no confidence in the pick and won't bet the fight except maybe a prop.
Cody sees Rozenstruik as a live underdog due to his knockout power and proven five-round cardio, noting that Gaziev has weak cardio and has never been extended beyond two rounds. He believes if Rozenstruik survives the early takedown onslaught, Gaziev will gas and Rozenstruik can finish him late. He compares it to the Overeem fight where Rozenstruik knocked him out in the fifth round.
Gaziev is a strong grappler who should get the fight to the ground with relative ease. Rozenstruik struggles against grapplers, as seen in losses to Curtis Blaydes, Jailton Almeida, and Alexander Volkov. Gaziev's striking confidence has improved, and he can stay safe from Rozenstruik's power until he secures a takedown. Once on the ground, Gaziev's strength will be too much, leading to a TKO or submission finish within the first round. The host considers -145 a gift line.
Paul picks Gaziev but acknowledges it's a 60/40 fight and not one he has a big edge on. He expects Gaziev to get early takedowns but questions what happens after that, noting Gaziev's cardio concerns. He mentions the fight feels like a toss-up and he's not entirely confident.
The MMA Guru struggles with this pick but ultimately goes with Rozenstruik. He thinks Gaziev is open on the feet and has been dropped before, while Rozenstruik has power and experience in main events. He worries about Rozenstruik's takedown defense but believes he can survive and find opportunities. He predicts a KO in round one and mentions betting on Rozenstruik as an underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 8 of 20 | 40% | 13 of 26 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Martin Buday | 0 | 49 of 98 | 50% | 60 of 114 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 12 of 23 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Martin Buday | 0 | 36 of 73 | 49% | 45 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:08 | |
| 2 | Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Martin Buday | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamil Gaziev | 8 of 20 | 40% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 17 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Martin Buday | 49 of 98 | 50% | 35 of 79 | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 35 of 73 | 5 of 10 | 9 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamil Gaziev | 7 of 17 | 41% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Martin Buday | 36 of 73 | 49% | 27 of 59 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 49 | 4 of 9 | 9 of 15 | |
| 2 | Shamil Gaziev | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Martin Buday | 13 of 25 | 52% | 8 of 20 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buday (-148), Gaziev (+124)
Round 1
The year-ending UFC pay-per-view is upon us, and with a record number of fights for the organization, it has been one heck of a 2023 calendar. Before fans receive a much-needed respite over the holidays, a dozen matchups of high intrigue will play out in Las Vegas. It may not start with 12 drummers drumming, but when the heavyweights open up the billing, the thumps of the two big men laying into one another might sound like percussion. Getting things started will be once-beaten, surging Buday (13-1, 4-0 UFC) and the undefeated Gaziev (11-0, 0-0 UFC). Despite their heft, the knockout rates of these burly gentlemen that will combine for 525 mighty pounds—not counting any weight cut—are not through the roof. Referee Mark Smith will nevertheless be on his A-game for the card opener, one that begins with a bump of large fists. Gaziev takes the center of the cage, and he sets up immediate counters when Buday lumbers towards him. Gaziev cuts off his foe with a two-hook combo, making Buday take a second look at coming in. Gaziev sticks out a sharp jab, and he flashes a mean grin while stalking after Buday. Gaziev marks up Buday’s nose with combinations, and he follows a few punches with a knee up the middle. Buday grabs hold of him after absorbing the flush knee to the breadbasket to slow down the surging offense of the UFC debutant. Gaziev pushes off, and he loads on power punches while further busting Buday up. Buday circles away, and he gets backed up to the fence and takes a knee that partially bounces off his guard. Buday escapes, and Gaziev walks him down and blasts him in the face with a shovel uppercut that makes Buday’s nose leak blood. Buday starts blinking and brings his hands up to cover his face, and he backs off in dire trouble. Smith recognizes that there is a nasty cut opened up either under his left eyebrow or on his eyelid, and he pauses the round and brings in the doctor to check on his condition. Buday is cleared to continue, and he thanks Smith by shooting in for a takedown. Gaziev steamrolls him over and pushes Buday to his back, where he proceeds to target the bloodied eye with punches and elbows. Gaziev moves to half guard, and he grinds his elbow mercilessly on Buday’s mouth and throat. Gaziev sits up and busts Buday in the face with a few left hands, and blood continues to leak out of Buday’s eye. Buday turns over as he continues to take punishment, and he fights to a knee but is wrenched down by the undefeated fighter. Gaziev drills a knee to the posterior, and when Buday stands up, Gaziev follows him with a knee on the jaw right before the bell sounds.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Round 2
Smith brings in the doctor to again take a look at Buday’s eye, who checks on Buday’s vision and condition. The physician informs Smith that Buday can still continue, and the second round begins. Gaziev wants to waste little time as he searches for a finish, marching Buday down and slugging him in the face with ruthless right hands and elbows. Buday shells up, his back against the cage wall, and Gaziev lays into him with powerful blows.
Smith implores Buday to fight back, and Gaziev drills his foe in the body with a right hand that makes Buday double over. Gaziev continues hurling punches as Buday wilts but does not go down, and Smith recognizes that Buday has nothing left to offer and waves off the match.
That makes it a perfect 12 up with none down for the debuting Gaziev, who has notched 11 of his 12 victories inside the distance.
The Official Result
Shamil Gaziev def. Martin Badys R2 0:56 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Shamil Gaziev, impressed by his power, cardio, and toughness. He notes that Buday has faced weaker competition and that Gaziev's power is a different level. He has a quarter-unit bet on Gaziev at +155.
Big Brady picks Martin Buday to win by second-round TKO, favoring Buday's cardio and size. He notes Gaziev's early finish power but poor cardio, and believes if Buday survives the first round, he will break Gaziev in deep waters. Brady highlights Buday's brown belt in BJJ and volume striking (over 5 significant strikes per minute). He expects Buday to wear on Gaziev against the cage, take him down, and finish with ground and pound.
Cody picks Buday, arguing that Gaziev has poor cardio and will fade after the first round. He notes that Gaziev's wrestling is not elite and his striking is bad, while Buday has good cardio and can push a pace. Cody believes Buday will survive the early onslaught and take over in later rounds, winning by TKO or decision. He sees Buday as the safer pick.
Jeff Fox picks Shamil Gaziev by knockout, stating that he likes Gaziev's straight punches and the way he attacks. He believes Gaziev will land one to Martin Buday's big skull and finish him. The prop is at plus 250.
Lucrative James picks Shamil Gaziev as an underdog. He believes Gaziev has more finishing upside early, is more athletic, and hits harder. He criticizes Martin Buday's plodding style and porous striking defense, noting Buday has been cracked by lesser fighters. He says it's Gaziev or pass, and that laying minus 200 on Buday is not advisable.
The host picks Buday, praising his pace, pressure, durability, and cardio. He expects Buday to stuff Gaziev's early takedown attempts, then take over in rounds two and three, breaking Gaziev in the clinch and finding a late finish. He notes that Gaziev's cardio looks sketchy and that Buday will be the better striker and more durable. He predicts a third-round stoppage for Buday.
Paul picks Gaziev as an underdog, noting that Buday has struggled against bottom-level heavyweights and that Gaziev has a wrestling advantage. He acknowledges that Gaziev's cardio is a concern but believes if Gaziev can get early takedowns, he can control the fight. Paul is not fully confident but sees value at +135, especially since Buday has not faced many wrestlers.
The Guru picks Shamil Gaziev over Martin Buday, criticizing Buday as an out-of-shape heavyweight with no grappling or striking skills. He highlights Gaziev's regional credentials and finishing ability. He predicts Gaziev will get a takedown and submit Buday with an arm triangle in round one.
Thomas Petersen - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guilherme Pat | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 25 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thomas Petersen | 1 | 28 of 41 | 68% | 164 of 199 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 8:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guilherme Pat | 0 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 28 of 35 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:03 | |
| 2 | Guilherme Pat | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 27 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:55 | |
| 3 | Guilherme Pat | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thomas Petersen | 1 | 16 of 20 | 80% | 109 of 131 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guilherme Pat | 17 of 31 | 54% | 9 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 16 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Thomas Petersen | 28 of 41 | 68% | 22 of 33 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 10 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 14 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guilherme Pat | 8 of 11 | 72% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Thomas Petersen | 4 of 9 | 44% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Guilherme Pat | 7 of 17 | 41% | 4 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Thomas Petersen | 8 of 12 | 66% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Guilherme Pat | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thomas Petersen | 16 of 20 | 80% | 15 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 16 |
Angelo picks Thomas Petersen despite acknowledging his poor striking, because Petersen is a strong wrestler with good top control. He notes that Guilherme Pat has poor takedown defense and can be held against the cage. Angelo believes Petersen can absorb Pat's strikes, close the distance, and grind out a win on the ground. He cautions that picks are not bets but thinks Petersen can get the takedowns.
Big Brady picks Thomas Petersen but with low confidence. He notes Petersen has good wrestling but is inconsistent. He thinks Petersen needs to wrestle hard for 15 minutes to win, and that Pat is a solid striker but can be controlled. He expects a greasy decision win for Petersen.
Cody picks Petersen, expecting him to use his wrestling to control Pat on the ground. He notes Petersen's wrestling background and Pat's inexperience, and believes Petersen will secure a decision or late finish.
Connor leans toward Peterson, citing his reproducible approach and ability to beat better athletes. He notes Peterson is a reasonable wrestler and better than Fry, which could neutralize Pat. However, he admits Pat could come in much better and that Peterson has been knocked out before, making it a low-confidence pick.
James hesitantly picks Thomas Petersen, predicting he will get outskilled early but come back to win via finish in round three or a close decision. He notes Pat's superior athleticism and footwork but criticizes his lack of finishing instinct and tendency to gas. He believes Petersen's wrestling, grit, and size advantage will wear on Pat as the fight progresses. He admits he needs to watch more tape and is not fully confident.
The host picks Petersen, citing his wrestling, cardio, and top control as kryptonite to Pat's power. He notes Pat's lackluster UFC debut and reliance on power, while Petersen has better grappling and gas tank. However, he has mediocre confidence due to the possibility of Pat landing a big shot early. He predicts Petersen by decision.
Paul leans towards Petersen, noting his wrestling advantage and Pat's struggles against cage pressure. He expects Petersen to grind out a win, though he's not fully confident.
The MMA Guru picks Thomas Petersen, citing his crafty wrestling and size advantage. He notes that Guilherme Pat was held against the cage by a lesser opponent and that Petersen has good boxing and grappling. He seems somewhat uncertain but leans towards Petersen.
Zane picks Pat but is hesitant, noting that Pat lands bigger shots but gets mashed on the cage. He sees Pat as the better athlete and believes he could come in improved, but acknowledges Peterson's reproducible approach and wrestling advantage. The fight is likely a slog with Pat winning rounds on the feet but losing time in clinch.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Petrino | 2 | 31 of 54 | 57% | 33 of 61 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 3:03 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 16 of 35 | 45% | 41 of 62 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitor Petrino | 1 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 15 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:42 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 22 of 27 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 | |
| 2 | Vitor Petrino | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 | |
| 3 | Vitor Petrino | 1 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Petrino | 31 of 54 | 57% | 25 of 46 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 29 | 9 of 12 | 9 of 13 |
| Thomas Petersen | 16 of 35 | 45% | 7 of 25 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitor Petrino | 13 of 20 | 65% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 10 |
| Thomas Petersen | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vitor Petrino | 14 of 28 | 50% | 8 of 21 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 19 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 1 |
| Thomas Petersen | 13 of 28 | 46% | 7 of 21 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 24 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Vitor Petrino | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Thomas Petersen | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Vitor Petrino, believing he is better everywhere except for pure grit. He thinks Vitor can find a finish, but acknowledges the risk of Thomas Petersen grinding out a win if he gets top position. He is undecided on betting due to Vitor's lack of true heavyweight size and the possibility of being controlled on the ground.
Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by second-round knockout. He notes Petrino has filled out at heavyweight and put on muscle, and believes he will win because many heavyweights are not great. He thinks Petersen is more skilled than shown but won't outwrestle or outstrike Petrino. Brady leans toward a knockout, saying Petrino will touch Petersen's chin.
Cody picks Petersen as well, noting Petrino's history of underperforming as a favorite. He highlights Petrino's low volume and poor wrestling, while Petersen is a better wrestler and throws more volume. He expects a close fight but sees value in the underdog.
Lucrative James picks Vitor Petrino by KO, but is not confident due to Petrino's chin issues and the -310 price. He notes Petrino's power advantage and Petersen's poor striking defense. He acknowledges Petersen's wrestling and cardio could grind out a decision, but sees a knockout as most likely. He mentions he might bet against his pick with a Petersen decision longshot.
Manpreet picks Petersen as an underdog, believing that if Petersen can avoid Petrino's early knockout power, his wrestling and cardio will take over. He notes Petersen's dominant performance against Mayes and expects him to wear Petrino down, potentially finishing in round three. He loves the plus 260 line and also considers the round three prop.
Paul picks Petersen as a dog, citing Petrino's poor wrestling and low volume. He notes Petersen's wrestling credentials and durability, and believes he can outwork Petrino. He calls it a 'dog or pass' fight.
The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino over Thomas Petersen, citing Petrino's size, power, and grappling skills. He notes Petersen is out of shape and Petrino showed good jiu-jitsu in his last fight. He predicts a TKO finish in the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 28 of 51 | 54% | 105 of 166 | 9 of 9 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 13:49 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thomas Petersen | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 12 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:34 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Thomas Petersen | 0 | 5 of 19 | 26% | 36 of 69 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:27 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Thomas Petersen | 0 | 22 of 29 | 75% | 57 of 78 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:48 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Petersen | 28 of 51 | 54% | 28 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 45 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 3 of 11 | 27% | 1 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thomas Petersen | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Thomas Petersen | 5 of 19 | 26% | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 16 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Thomas Petersen | 22 of 29 | 75% | 22 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 28 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo sees this as a straightforward matchup: if Thomas Petersen gets takedowns, he wins; if he stays on the feet too long, he gets knocked out. He notes that Don'Tale Mayes has struggled with grapplers recently, and Petersen took down his last opponent easily. He believes Petersen's wrestling will be the deciding factor.
Big Brady is confident in Thomas Petersen, expecting his best performance to date. He highlights Petersen's wrestling background and vicious ground and pound, noting that Mayes has poor takedown defense (57%) and looks bad when taken down, citing examples like Valter Walker's heel hook and Shamil Gaz's control. He questions Mayes's motivation, pointing out his social media silence and poor shape at weigh-ins. He predicts Petersen will take Mayes down and finish him by TKO in round two.
Mayes is an average heavyweight with a 5-5 UFC record. Petersen can dictate the pace with his developing striking and mix in takedowns. I expect Petersen to grind out a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Don'Tale Mayes as an underdog, despite acknowledging Mayes' poor record. He believes Mayes is more athletic on the feet, has a 7-inch reach advantage, and better cardio. He predicts Mayes will stuff takedowns and eventually get a TKO in round two, possibly after Petersen fails a takedown and Mayes gains top position.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamil Gaziev | 1 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 19 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamil Gaziev | 1 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 19 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamil Gaziev | 14 of 32 | 43% | 9 of 27 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Thomas Petersen | 19 of 34 | 55% | 4 of 18 | 7 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 18 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamil Gaziev | 14 of 32 | 43% | 9 of 27 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Thomas Petersen | 19 of 34 | 55% | 4 of 18 | 7 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 18 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Action moves to the heavyweight division, where Gaziev (13-1, 2-1 UFC) squares off with a former Legacy Fighting Alliance champion in Petersen (9-2, 1-1 UFC). Herzog administers he law and order. Customary glove touch gets them started. Gaziev takes the center and fires off two punches. Short elbow on the inside from Gaziev. Petersen answers with a low kick, then another. They trade right hands. Body kick from Gaziev. Petersen paws with his jab, then fires one to the body. Short right hook finds the mark for Gaziev, who plods forward against the southpaw. Petersen completes a takedown but fails to corral his opponent on the mat. Gaziev easily gets back to his feet and connects with two straight rights. Chopping right hand from Gaziev.
They circle in the center of the cage, and Gaziev connects with a crushing right hook that floors the American where he stands. No follow-up shots are required
.
The Official Result
Shamil Gaziev def. Thomas Petersen—TKO (Punch) 3:12 R1
Angelo picks Shamil Gaziev, believing he is the better fighter despite a loss to Rozenstruik. He notes that Gaziev has improved his cardio and bounced back with a decision win. He thinks Gaziev's power and physicality will be too much for Thomas Petersen, who is solid but not spectacular. He includes Gaziev in a parlay with Mike Davis.
Big Brady thinks Shamil Gaziev has awful cardio but will likely knock out Thomas Petersen early. He notes Gaziev has much more power and Petersen is hitable. Brady expects a first-round knockout, but says if the fight extends it will be 'greasy'. He is staying away from betting Gaziev at -330 and might live bet Petersen.
Petersen's wrestling background will allow him to keep the fight upright and use his jab and volume to outwork Gaziev, who struggles when he can't secure takedowns or control against the cage. Petersen is a plus-300 underdog and is expected to win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Shamil Gaziev to win by third-round finish. He calls Gaziev 'The Blob' and says he pushes forward and is there to win. He thinks Gaziev will start to pick up the pace as the fight goes on and get a late finish over Thomas Petersen, who he calls a 'fat idiot' with unimpressive skills.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 63 of 185 | 34% | 63 of 185 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mohammed Usman | 0 | 76 of 138 | 55% | 98 of 164 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thomas Petersen | 0 | 22 of 50 | 44% | 22 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mohammed Usman | 0 | 22 of 41 | 53% | 24 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Thomas Petersen | 0 | 17 of 60 | 28% | 17 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mohammed Usman | 0 | 25 of 45 | 55% | 30 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 | |
| 3 | Thomas Petersen | 0 | 24 of 75 | 32% | 24 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mohammed Usman | 0 | 29 of 52 | 55% | 44 of 69 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Petersen | 63 of 185 | 34% | 44 of 151 | 19 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 61 of 181 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Mohammed Usman | 76 of 138 | 55% | 58 of 117 | 13 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 72 of 134 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thomas Petersen | 22 of 50 | 44% | 18 of 44 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 46 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Mohammed Usman | 22 of 41 | 53% | 13 of 32 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Thomas Petersen | 17 of 60 | 28% | 9 of 46 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 17 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mohammed Usman | 25 of 45 | 55% | 20 of 37 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Thomas Petersen | 24 of 75 | 32% | 17 of 61 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mohammed Usman | 29 of 52 | 55% | 25 of 48 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 28 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Mohammed Usman because he is the larger, more physically imposing fighter with a brick for a head and decent power. He notes that neither fighter is very good or entertaining, and that Usman's takedown defense should hold up against Petersen's wrestling. However, he explicitly says he cannot bet on low-level heavyweight fights, so this is a lean with no stake.
Cody picks Petersen, noting his youth (29) and wrestling pedigree. He thinks if Petersen can get takedowns, he can control Usman. He admits Usman has better striking and cardio but believes Petersen's southpaw stance and sophomore improvement could be factors. He calls it a dogger pass situation and sides with the underdog.
Daniel Vreeland picks Mohammed Usman, noting his improvements and ability to last three rounds. He believes Usman can defend takedowns and tire out Petersen, who gasses when his takedown game fails. Vreeland expects Usman to take over late in the fight.
Petersen is a slight dog at +110. He has a wrestling-heavy approach but needs to improve his striking to avoid being picked apart. Usman is not as crisp a striker as Jamal Pogues, which could allow Petersen to have more success with his wrestling. Petersen's pressure and pace should wear down Usman around the 6-minute mark, leading to a decision win. However, I need to see improvements in Petersen's striking before I'm confident enough to invest heavily.
Paul picks Usman, citing his wrestling background, takedown defense (never taken down in UFC), and better striking. He thinks Petersen's wrestling won't be effective and that Usman will edge a decision or get a late finish. He calls the line very playable.
The MMA Guru picks Mohammed Usman over Thomas Petersen, calling Petersen 'garbage' and a 'fat dum dum'. He notes Usman has knockout power and is more technical, with better conditioning and athleticism. He dismisses Petersen's size and recent loss to Jamal Poges, concluding Usman should win easily.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Pogues | 0 | 58 of 86 | 67% | 116 of 153 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:47 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 65 of 124 | 52% | 66 of 125 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamal Pogues | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 46 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 24 of 43 | 55% | 24 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jamal Pogues | 0 | 22 of 32 | 68% | 40 of 56 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 22 of 35 | 62% | 22 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jamal Pogues | 0 | 27 of 37 | 72% | 30 of 40 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 19 of 46 | 41% | 20 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Pogues | 58 of 86 | 67% | 26 of 50 | 30 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 54 of 81 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Thomas Petersen | 65 of 124 | 52% | 43 of 94 | 15 of 23 | 7 of 7 | 56 of 111 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamal Pogues | 9 of 17 | 52% | 5 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thomas Petersen | 24 of 43 | 55% | 16 of 30 | 5 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 23 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jamal Pogues | 22 of 32 | 68% | 15 of 23 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Thomas Petersen | 22 of 35 | 62% | 15 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 26 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jamal Pogues | 27 of 37 | 72% | 6 of 14 | 19 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 26 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Thomas Petersen | 19 of 46 | 41% | 12 of 37 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 43 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Thomas Petersen, the prospect, over Jamal Pogues. He notes that the UFC often sets up fights to test prospects, and Petersen's wrestling should be good enough to get Pogues to the ground. He acknowledges Petersen's striking is poor but believes his wrestling will carry him. He also mentions that Pogues lacks one-punch knockout power to turn the fight around.
Big Brady picks Thomas Petersen to win by TKO ground and pound within the first two rounds. He notes Petersen is the bigger, stronger fighter with a wrestling background and vicious ground and pound, while Jamal Pogues has looked lackluster at heavyweight and has been taken down by smaller fighters. The main concern is Petersen's cardio, as he was knocked out in the third round in his only fight that went that far, but Brady expects an early finish.
Cody leans to Petersen, but is wary of Pogues' potential if he makes weight. He notes Pogues' weight issues and poor performance against Parkin. He thinks Petersen's wrestling and cardio could be decisive, but he's not confident.
Petersen has good forward pressure and wrestling, but his gas tank is a concern after gassing in his only loss. Pogues has been to four straight decisions and may struggle to implement his striking or grappling. The host leans slightly to Petersen, expecting him to grind out a decision win if he avoids big shots and manages his cardio.
Paul picks Petersen by submission, taking a small sprinkle at +750. He notes Petersen's wrestling and submission win last time, and Pogues' weight and cardio issues. He thinks the prop is overpriced.
The MMA Guru picks Jamal Pogues over Thomas Petersen, calling both fighters 'fat middleweights' and an 'embarrassment to the sport.' He believes Pogues has the takedown defense to avoid being taken down by Petersen, and if it stays standing, Pogues has better boxing. He dismisses Petersen's win on the Contender Series as beating a 'gelatinous blob.'
Expert Picks (4)
Angelo picks Shamil Gaziev, believing he is the better fighter despite a loss to Rozenstruik. He notes that Gaziev has improved his cardio and bounced back with a decision win. He thinks Gaziev's power and physicality will be too much for Thomas Petersen, who is solid but not spectacular. He includes Gaziev in a parlay with Mike Davis.
Big Brady thinks Shamil Gaziev has awful cardio but will likely knock out Thomas Petersen early. He notes Gaziev has much more power and Petersen is hitable. Brady expects a first-round knockout, but says if the fight extends it will be 'greasy'. He is staying away from betting Gaziev at -330 and might live bet Petersen.
Petersen's wrestling background will allow him to keep the fight upright and use his jab and volume to outwork Gaziev, who struggles when he can't secure takedowns or control against the cage. Petersen is a plus-300 underdog and is expected to win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Shamil Gaziev to win by third-round finish. He calls Gaziev 'The Blob' and says he pushes forward and is there to win. He thinks Gaziev will start to pick up the pace as the fight goes on and get a late finish over Thomas Petersen, who he calls a 'fat idiot' with unimpressive skills.
Shameel is a tofu song of a b**** how the f*** did he survive that answer that beating that murder those punches everything he got done dirty by their f****** ref not letting them fenced all and implemented style of real pedoping and then fenced darling and then real doping rando is the real deal because he's a mad man he said let it he's big