vs
+340 -400
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · May 31, 2025 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber Next Fight
Age 33
Height 5' 10"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 27
Height 5' 10"
Reach 72"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Ramiz Brahimaj
2.29 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.27 SApM
47.0% Str. Def.
1.99 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
44.0% TD Def.
1.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Billy Goff
7.51 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
5.02 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
1.75 TD Avg
16.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Ramiz Brahimaj
Moneyline
Caesars +340
KO/TKO
DraftKings +1400
Submission
FanDuel +650
Decision
BetRivers +1200
Billy Goff
Moneyline
BetRivers -400
KO/TKO
Caesars +145
Submission
BetMGM +900
Decision
BetRivers +260
Ramiz Brahimaj - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Feb 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ramiz Brahimaj 0 38 of 67 56% 43 of 73 3 of 11 27% 0 0 3:48
Punahele Soriano 0 40 of 92 43% 66 of 123 3 of 4 75% 0 0 5:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ramiz Brahimaj 0 31 of 56 55% 31 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Punahele Soriano 0 17 of 52 32% 21 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
2 Ramiz Brahimaj 0 5 of 7 71% 10 of 12 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:47
Punahele Soriano 0 7 of 12 58% 26 of 32 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:35
3 Ramiz Brahimaj 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 5 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:59
Punahele Soriano 0 16 of 28 57% 19 of 32 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ramiz Brahimaj 38 of 67 56% 16 of 42 21 of 24 1 of 1 35 of 63 3 of 4 0 of 0
Punahele Soriano 40 of 92 43% 29 of 79 11 of 13 0 of 0 25 of 74 14 of 15 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ramiz Brahimaj 31 of 56 55% 13 of 37 17 of 18 1 of 1 30 of 54 1 of 2 0 of 0
Punahele Soriano 17 of 52 32% 14 of 47 3 of 5 0 of 0 16 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 1
2 Ramiz Brahimaj 5 of 7 71% 2 of 3 3 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
Punahele Soriano 7 of 12 58% 2 of 7 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 5 6 of 6 1 of 1
3 Ramiz Brahimaj 2 of 4 50% 1 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0
Punahele Soriano 16 of 28 57% 13 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 19 7 of 8 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Angelo picks Punahele Soriano, citing his power, wrestling credentials, and ability to stay safe on top. He acknowledges Ramiz Brahimaj's submission threat but believes Soriano's wrestling and striking will prevail. He notes the line has flipped but remains confident in Soriano.

Mentions if the line continues to widen, he will place a bet on Soriano.
"Punahele is going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (13 days before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

Big Brady picks Ramiz Brahimaj to defeat Punahele Soriano, citing Brahimaj's recent underdog wins and Soriano's poor takedown defense and cardio. He notes Soriano has success early but fades, and Brahimaj is tough and has good submissions. He predicts Brahimaj will survive the early storm, mix in takedowns, and submit Soriano in the second round. He references Soriano's losses to Dustin Stoltzfus and Nick Maximov as evidence of his vulnerability.

Ramiz Brahimaj by second-round submission; underdog win
"I'm going to go Ramiz Brahimaj to win this fight and I think he might cash as an underdog for the fourth time in a row. Give me Ramiz Brahimaj by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

Cody thinks Brahimaj's jiu-jitsu and hometown crowd give him an edge. He notes Soriano's inconsistency and cardio issues. He expects Brahimaj to win by submission or decision.

"Brahimai in Texas seems like it's interesting enough for me to maybe go out there and pull something off."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Soriano. He notes that Soriano's recent wins are more trustworthy and indicative of a step forward, while Brahimaj's wins are against fighters with no defense. Connor also mentions that if Court McGee could grind Brahimaj, Soriano can too.

"I think soryano's recent wins are much more trustworthy of an indicative of a step forward than brahimi"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

The host leans towards Soriano, noting his advantage on the feet with power and aggression, and his improved cardio since dropping to welterweight. He believes Soriano can outstrike and outgrapple Brahimaj if his gas tank holds up. However, he is not betting because Brahimaj has proven cardio and could make Soriano work hard, and both fighters are evolving, making it difficult to predict which version shows up.

Soriano's cardio improvement at welterweight; Brahimaj's cardio and takedown defense issues
"Heavily leaned towards Soraniano here. He's a very very tempting bet for me. But Brahim can make Sorano work hard in ways neither Veriteneov nor Miguel Baser could."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

James picks Ramiz Brahimaj, citing his superior jiu-jitsu and front choke series. He notes that Soriano's wrestling could put him in danger of submissions, and that Brahimaj is the better striker over 15 minutes. James believes Brahimaj will catch Soriano in a front headlock and submit him.

"I'm going to have to pick Ramse Brahim here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

Brahimaj has improved his cardio and takedown defense since moving to Chicago, and he is more calculated now. Soriano is a power puncher but relies on wrestling to grind out wins, and he doesn't threaten submissions. Brahimaj's grappling defense should be good enough to keep it standing or scramble, and he can catch Soriano in a submission. The under 2.5 rounds also makes sense.

under 2.5 rounds
"So the official prediction will be Broy Mai by submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Paul thinks Soriano at 170 is a different beast with better cardio and power. He acknowledges Brahimaj's grappling but thinks Soriano's wrestling and strength will be enough. He calls it a pick'em and leans Soriano.

"I'm going to pick Puna. But that's just because, you know, I got to support the Hawaiian wave."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

The MMA Guru picks Punahele Soriano, citing his nasty knockout power, solid chin, and physicality. He believes Soriano won't be lost on the feet and can avoid Brahimaj's guillotine. He notes Brahimaj's wins are over lesser competition and that Soriano has dominated grapplers before. He predicts a TKO finish in round one or two.

TKO finish in round one or two, underdog
"I'm going to take him by TKO finish in round one or two over Ramiz Brahimaj as an underdog."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Zane picks Soriano, believing he will bully Brahimaj with his athleticism and power. He notes that Soriano has options and is too dangerous. If Soriano chooses to wrestle, he might get caught in a submission, but that's a thin chance. Zane trusts Soriano's recent wins more than Brahimaj's.

"i'll take soriano. I think he just so clearly feels super confident at this division... that he is going to go in there and bully brahima"
Submission R2 2:24 · UFC 320 · Oct 04, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ramiz Brahimaj 0 21 of 35 60% 46 of 61 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:37
Austin Vanderford 0 5 of 16 31% 13 of 24 3 of 6 50% 0 0 3:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ramiz Brahimaj 0 4 of 13 30% 16 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Austin Vanderford 0 4 of 12 33% 12 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:30
2 Ramiz Brahimaj 0 17 of 22 77% 30 of 36 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:37
Austin Vanderford 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ramiz Brahimaj 21 of 35 60% 18 of 29 0 of 2 3 of 4 9 of 23 8 of 8 4 of 4
Austin Vanderford 5 of 16 31% 4 of 14 0 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ramiz Brahimaj 4 of 13 30% 2 of 8 0 of 2 2 of 3 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Austin Vanderford 4 of 12 33% 3 of 10 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Ramiz Brahimaj 17 of 22 77% 16 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 10 8 of 8 4 of 4
Austin Vanderford 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Austin Vanderford

Angelo sees this as a grappler vs grappler matchup. He believes Austin Vanderford is the better wrestler, which is the key factor since both have similar jiu-jitsu and striking. He notes that Ramiz Brahimaj can get stuck on his back and that his jiu-jitsu off his back is not as good as on top. He expects Vanderford to get takedowns and control the fight, but is not very confident in a finish.

"Austin Vanderford's going to be the pick. Not the most confident pick I have on this card though."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Austin Vanderford

Big Brady acknowledges that Ramiz Brahimaj is live in the first round, as he typically wins early. However, he believes Vanderford can survive the early storm, extend the fight, and mix in takedowns as the fight goes on. He notes that Brahimaj has slowed down in longer fights and that Vanderford is a good grappler. He predicts Vanderford by decision.

If you like Brahimaj, take him to win in round one.
"I think the more likely scenario is Vanderford survives an early storm ... starts mixing the takedowns as the fight goes on ... give me Vanderford here. I'm going to take Vanderford to win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

Connor picks Brahimaj hesitantly, noting that while both fighters are similar, Brahimaj will bring an aggressive fight and is more likely to push the pace. He acknowledges that Vanderford is vulnerable and that Brahimaj has power, but admits there is not much to separate them.

Brahimaj opened at +210, currently +250; Vanderford opened at -250, currently -300
"I'll take my, I think I'm still not sold on Vanderford, but yeah, I kind of agree. I'm in Vanderford."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Austin Vanderford

The host believes Vanderford will utilize his grappling excellence to stay out of Brahimaj's submission danger and eventually secure a second or third round TKO finish.

second or third round TKO finish
"I think this is a great fight for Vanderford to utilize his grappling excellence to stay out of the submission danger of Brahimaj and eventually lead to a second or third round TKO finish."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Austin Vanderford

The MMA Guru picks Austin Vanderford, believing his size, wrestling, and durability will be too much for Ramiz Brahimaj. He notes Brahimaj's inconsistency and poor performances against solid competition, while Vanderford has shown grit and improving grappling. He predicts a decision win for Vanderford.

"I'm going to go with Austin Vanderford getting this one done and I'm actually going to say that he gets this done by decision over Ramiz Brahimaj."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Austin Vanderford

Zane picks Vanderford hesitantly, noting that both fighters are similar: good grapplers but not slick strikers. He gives Vanderford the edge because he can lay on opponents better and is more likely to control the fight, though he is also more likely to get knocked out when he screws up. Zane admits it's a coin flip.

Brahimaj opened at +210, currently +250; Vanderford opened at -250, currently -300
"I'll take my, I think I'm still not sold on Vanderford, but yeah, I kind of agree. I'm in Vanderford."
CANCEL vs Oban Elliott
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 18, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Angelo picks Oban Elliott confidently, noting his well-rounded skills, cardio, and ability to get back to his feet after takedowns. He contrasts this with Ramiz Brahimaj's tendency to grapple off his back and lack of striking. He expects the odds to widen further and advises betting early.

Suggests the line will move from -400 to -800 or -900, implying value on Elliott at current odds.
"Oban is 100 times a striker that Ramese is and should absolutely run away here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Big Brady picks Billy Goff despite the wide line, noting that Ramiz Brahimaj is essentially first-round sub or bust and fades after the first five minutes. Goff is tough, has great cardio, and applies constant pressure. Brady expects Goff to break Brahimaj and finish him in the second round, possibly by knockout.

second round knockout
"I like Billy Rigoff here. It is a wide line, but I think he does break Ramsey's Brahimage."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Matt picks Billy Goff to win by decision. He notes that Goff is an all-gas fighter who wears opponents down, while Brahimaj is an early-finish threat who fades. Goff has never been finished and should survive the early onslaught, then take over in the second and third rounds. Matt likes Goff by decision at +220.

Goff by decision +220, Brahimaj round one KO +2400, Brahimaj round one submission +1200
"Goff will likely start pulling away in the second and third rounds here. Goff to win by decision is the prop that I'd go with here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 28, 2025 (3 days before fight)

The MMA Guru picks Billy Goff over Ramiz Brahimaj, citing Goff's pressure, body work, and grit. He criticizes Brahimaj's level, noting losses to Court McGee and others. He predicts Goff will win by second or third round TKO, mixing body shots and low kicks.

TKO in round 2 or 3
"I'm going with Billy Ray Gooff... I think Billy Gooff is going to win this fight... Billy Gooff wins by second or third round TKO over Ramis Brahimage."
WIN vs Billy Goff
Submission R1 3:16 · UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · May 31, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ramiz Brahimaj 0 1 of 3 33% 2 of 4 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:59
Billy Goff 0 1 of 1 100% 9 of 10 2 of 3 66% 1 0 1:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ramiz Brahimaj 0 1 of 3 33% 2 of 4 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:59
Billy Goff 0 1 of 1 100% 9 of 10 2 of 3 66% 1 0 1:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ramiz Brahimaj 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
Billy Goff 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ramiz Brahimaj 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
Billy Goff 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0
WIN vs Mickey Gall
KO (punches) R1 2:55 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ramiz Brahimaj 0 28 of 41 68% 30 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mickey Gall 1 31 of 56 55% 31 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ramiz Brahimaj 0 28 of 41 68% 30 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mickey Gall 1 31 of 56 55% 31 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ramiz Brahimaj 28 of 41 68% 25 of 38 3 of 3 0 of 0 26 of 39 2 of 2 0 of 0
Mickey Gall 31 of 56 55% 27 of 50 1 of 3 3 of 3 22 of 43 6 of 9 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ramiz Brahimaj 28 of 41 68% 25 of 38 3 of 3 0 of 0 26 of 39 2 of 2 0 of 0
Mickey Gall 31 of 56 55% 27 of 50 1 of 3 3 of 3 22 of 43 6 of 9 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mickey Gall

Angelo picks Mickey Gall, reasoning that Gall is a good grappler in his own right and a better wrestler than Brahimaj, so Brahimaj won't submit him. He notes that Brahimaj is submission-or-bust and that Gall has raw talent and athleticism. However, he advises against betting on this low-level fight due to Gall's poor recent record.

Angelo explicitly says he will not bet on this fight due to self-control, calling it a 'dog [__] fight'.
"I'm going to pick Mickey G to win I think Mickey should win here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mickey Gall

Big Brady picks Mickey Gall despite calling it a low-level fight. He notes that Ramiz Brahimaj has 10 wins, all by first-round submission, and is 0-5 when he doesn't submit his opponent in the first round. Brady believes Gall has improved striking and better cardio, and that the longer the fight goes, the more it favors Gall. He also mentions Brahimaj's long layoff and poor performance in his last fight, predicting a decision win for Gall.

"I like Mickey G to win this fight probably by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mickey Gall

Cody picks Mickey Gall, arguing Brahimaj is a fraud with poor striking and wrestling. He notes Brahimaj's only wins are against low-level opponents, and Gall has improved and has better striking and comparable grappling. Cody expects Gall to win by decision or TKO.

"I got Mickey G the numberers close enough that I'm probably going to put way more than I should on it"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Mickey Gall

Connor picks Gall because he thinks Gall is more dynamic and might be able to hurt Brahimaj. He notes that Gall's striking has improved significantly, though he still has many holes. Connor acknowledges that Brahimaj could out-wrestle Gall, but he leans toward Gall's power.

"I'm gonna pick gall just because I think he's that much more dynamic that he might be able to hurt brahi mai. It's totally possible."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

Vreeland picks Brahimaj, noting he has never won a fight without a submission. He believes Brahimaj will submit Mickey Gall, who has good Jiu-Jitsu but Brahimaj's submission game is strong.

Ramiz Brahimaj wins by submission (+450)
"I think brahimi is gonna sub uh Mickey g i it Mickey G is yeah Mickey G first of all really good Jiu-Jitsu R brahimi has never won a fight he hasn't won by submission"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mickey Gall

Daniel Vreeland reluctantly picks Mickey Gall, citing Brahimaj's poor performances when he doesn't get early submissions. He notes Gall's durability and activity, despite his technical flaws. He acknowledges Brahimaj's submission threat but doubts his ability to execute. He calls it a 'reluctant' pick.

"I'm going to reluctantly pick Mickey G to win this fight"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Fox does not make a clear pick for this fight. He mentions Vreeland's pick but does not state his own opinion.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Mickey Gall

The host acknowledges both fighters are flaky but leans with Gall's overall advantages. He notes Brahimaj is dangerous in grappling but so is Gall, and expects Gall's Viking pressure to eventually break Brahimaj and win on the scorecards.

"I have to lean with the advantages that g should hold from an overall standpoint Bri ma is very dangerous in the grappling round but so is Mickey Gul but I do think it's going to be G Viking and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

Paul picks Ramiz Brahimaj, citing his BJJ and the plus money. He notes Gall has lost to everyone decent he's faced, and Brahimaj has a chance if he can get the fight to the ground early. Paul is not confident but likes the underdog value.

"briay for me what about you I think I think Mickey G absolutely rolls him up Bri M's a fraud dude"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mickey Gall

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Mickey Gall, despite acknowledging Gall's poor UFC record. He criticizes Ramiz Brahimaj's performances, calling him 'terrible' and noting his ear injury loss to Max Griffin. He expects a close decision win for Gall.

"I'm going to go with Mickey G... no rames is terrible which is worrying for me"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

Zane picks Brahimaj because he thinks Brahimaj will try to impose his wrestling game and it will probably work. He notes that Gall's grappling has disappeared and that Brahimaj has a set process. However, he acknowledges that Gall is a decent puncher and could hurt Brahimaj.

Odds: Gall opened -110, now -130; Brahimaj opened -101, now +119. Zane says Brahimaj should be a slight favorite.
"Um, you know what i'm gonna take brahi mai because I think he will try to impose his wrestling game. I think he will too and it probably will work."
LOSS vs Themba Gorimbo
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Themba Gorimbo 0 43 of 52 82% 110 of 134 5 of 6 83% 0 1 10:13
Ramiz Brahimaj 0 3 of 6 50% 15 of 20 1 of 8 12% 0 0 3:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Themba Gorimbo 0 5 of 5 100% 34 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:20
Ramiz Brahimaj 0 2 of 2 100% 9 of 10 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:06
2 Themba Gorimbo 0 15 of 20 75% 28 of 35 3 of 3 100% 0 1 3:42
Ramiz Brahimaj 0 0 of 3 0% 4 of 8 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:01
3 Themba Gorimbo 0 23 of 27 85% 48 of 62 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:11
Ramiz Brahimaj 0 1 of 1 100% 2 of 2 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Themba Gorimbo 43 of 52 82% 9 of 13 31 of 35 3 of 4 6 of 10 35 of 38 2 of 4
Ramiz Brahimaj 3 of 6 50% 0 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Themba Gorimbo 5 of 5 100% 1 of 1 4 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 4 0 of 0
Ramiz Brahimaj 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Themba Gorimbo 15 of 20 75% 1 of 2 12 of 15 2 of 3 2 of 4 13 of 15 0 of 1
Ramiz Brahimaj 0 of 3 0% 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Themba Gorimbo 23 of 27 85% 7 of 10 15 of 16 1 of 1 3 of 5 18 of 19 2 of 3
Ramiz Brahimaj 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Themba Gorimbo vs. Ramiz Brahimaj
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gorimbo (-135), Brahimaj (+114)

Round 1
Full of emotion, Gorimbo (12-4, 2-1 UFC) takes to the cage today and fights with a heavy weight on his shoulders. Earlier in the week, his coach’s mother passed away, and the Zimbabwe native vowed that he would win for her. He faces submission specialist Brahimaj (10-4, 2-2 UFC), who holds a 100% sub rate as a pro but is coming off a nearly career-ending injury. This emotional welterweight clash will be officiated by referee Mark Smith, and the fighters do not bump fists. Gorimbo is the initial aggressor, walking Brahimaj around the cage while measuring his jab. Gorimbo gets off a front kick, and Brahimaj immediately closes in on him to change levels. Gorimbo turns him around and pushes him to the fence, and Brahimaj settles for this position by landing several knees to the belly. Brahimaj turns him about and drags Gorimbo down, bringing Gorimbo on top of him in a sacrifice throw. Brahimaj scoots his way to the wall and stands up without taking any damage, and he knees Gorimbo in the hand to break up his grip momentarily. Gorimbo lifts Brahimaj up in the air but sets him down when he cannot find the right angle to put him on the mat. The two fighters push one another in the clinch, and Brahimaj once more tries to take the fight down only to land on his back. Brahimaj turns to his side and tries to sneak around the back, but Gorimbo stops him from getting anywhere. Brahimaj climbs up with the fence behind him, and Gorimbo knees him a few times. Brahimaj spins him around and delivers a solid knee to the sternum, and Gorimbo answers with his own knee and an elbow for good measure. The grinding round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo

Round 2
Gorimbo reintroduces himself to his foe with a front kick and a low kick, and he tries another leg kick but is out of range. Brahimaj closes in, and Gorimbo nails him in the calf with a kick. Brahimaj regains his balance and practically runs forward to engage in a clinch. Gorimbo meets him and instantly turns him around, and it does not take long for Smith to ask for more action as they stall out. Brahimaj turns things around with one arm between Gorimbo’s legs, but Gorimbo manages to muscle his opponent down to the floor. Brahimaj considers a guillotine choke, but the leverage is wrong given that his right side is against the cage. Brahimaj sits up and puts his back to the wall, and he stands up. Gorimbo uses a body lock to hurl Brahimaj to the mat, and Brahimaj scrambles to fight his way back upright. Gorimbo leans heavily on his opponent, making life miserable for Brahimaj and the audience watching as he clings with zero offense offered. Brahimaj turns him about and takes a knee to the belly as Smith clasp for them to do something, anything. The wall-and-stall continues as Gorimbo pushes him back to the fence. Brahimaj slides around and attempts to take the back and get hold of a choke, but he falls off the back and goes down to his seat. Brahimaj scoots his way to the wire and stands, and Gorimbo knees him in the groin. Smith tells him to watch out, and they continue embracing the grind. Gorimbo gets off a few more knees and gains enough space to land and elbow, before tripping Brahimaj up and setting him down to the floor. Gorimbo, with one hook around the side, fishes for a one-armed choke. Smith sees there is nothing from this position and asks for more work. There is no more work from either man until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo

Round 3
The two have five minutes left to handle their business, and they come out of their corners in a labored pace. Gorimbo strikes first, with a few punches and a leg kick before shooting for a takedown. “The Answer” successfully pushes the submission artist against the wall, but they wind up in the same position they have spent the majority of the lackluster encounter. Brahimaj goes after a single, and Gorimbo gets away with a fence grab to keep himself on his feet. Brahimaj fails to get him down, and Gorimbo turns him around as the grueling tie-up continues. Gorimbo plants a few knees to the belly before he is spun around, and Smith warns someone for grabbing the cage. Nothing happens absent a few minor knees from Gorimbo, and time slowly ticks off the clock as the remain stuck together in the clinch. Brahimaj flirts with a takedown effort but is nowhere close to getting anything, and Smith asks for more work. Gorimbo grinds, grinds and grinds away as he spams short knees. Brahimaj goes after another trip, and for the third time this fight, he falls on his own back feebly. While he manages to get back up without taking any damage, it is because Gorimbo is not striking. Gorimbo wrenches him back down, and he apologizes to UFC matchmaker Sean Shelby for the anti-“Fight of the Night” performance. The kind Shelby flashes him double thumbs-up signs, as he does not wish to kick anyone while they are down. The miserable matchup ends after 15 long minutes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo (30-27 Gorimbo)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo (30-27 Gorimbo)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo (30-27 Gorimbo)

The Official Result
Themba Gorimbo def. Ramiz Brahimaj via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Themba Gorimbo

Angelo sees Themba Gorimbo as a distance striker with good takedown defense and now proven power. Ramiz Brahimaj is a submission specialist who has been away for two years and tends to grapple off his back. Angelo thinks Brahimaj will struggle to get past Gorimbo's range and takedown defense, making Gorimbo the clear pick. He may parlay Gorimbo with Piera Rodríguez.

potential parlay with Piera Rodríguez
"tber gbo is going to be the pick and I I honestly May parlay him with Pera Rodriguez"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Themba Gorimbo

Cody provides a detailed breakdown: Gorimbo has a great story and work ethic, but his grappling defense is a concern. However, Brahimaj is a one-trick pony who relies on first-round submissions and has terrible cardio if he doesn't get them. Cody notes Brahimaj's losses come when he can't secure a takedown, and Gorimbo's cardio and power should take over if he survives the first round. He also mentions live betting Gorimbo if he loses the first round.

Live bet on Gorimbo if he loses the first round
"I'm gonna take themba and I'm also going to take that live betting Market that if themba can if he loses the first round oh well you you missed it right if he loses the first round but survives you …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

Gorimbo is reckless on the feet and has holes in his game. Brahimaj is a slick BJJ specialist who sets up takedowns well and has finishing ability. Both guys have cardio issues, but Brahimaj should find a submission opportunity early. The fight not going to decision is a strong play.

Fight doesn't go to decision; Brahimaj by submission in round one.
"I'm thinking round one submission for the returning Riz brahimi"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Themba Gorimbo

Paul agrees with Cody that the line has moved to a pick 'em for good reason. He notes Gorimbo's cardio and work ethic are his biggest weapons, while Brahimaj has a history of gassing if he doesn't get a first-round submission. Paul believes Gorimbo's improvements at MMA Masters and his raw power make him the play at this price.

"At close to a pick them yeah it's themba for me as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Themba Gorimbo

The MMA Guru picks Themba Gorimbo over Ramiz Brahimaj, citing Gorimbo's better finishing potential and training at MMA Masters. He notes that Brahimaj lost to Court McGee, which he considers a bad sign for a prospect. He expects Gorimbo to stuff takedowns and eventually finish Brahimaj in round two or three, possibly due to cardio advantage.

"I'm going to go them gimbo on finishing potential I think he's got more finishing potential here"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:02 · UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Feb 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ramiz Brahimaj 0 0 of 1 0% 2 of 4 1 of 1 100% 3 0 1:33
Micheal Gillmore 0 0 of 2 0% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ramiz Brahimaj 0 0 of 1 0% 2 of 4 1 of 1 100% 3 0 1:33
Micheal Gillmore 0 0 of 2 0% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ramiz Brahimaj 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Micheal Gillmore 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ramiz Brahimaj 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Micheal Gillmore 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

Big Brady picks Ramiz Brahimaj to win by first-round submission. He notes Brahimaj has only won by first-round submission and has never won by knockout or decision. He criticizes Gillmore's takedown defense and grappling, saying Gillmore has been finished in all four losses, three by submission. However, he is cautious because Brahimaj is on short notice and has poor cardio if the fight goes past the first round. He calls the -350 line 'terrifying' but believes Brahimaj is the much better fighter.

Brahimaj by first-round submission; pass on betting at -350
"I think briahmaj takes down michael gilmore within the first 30 seconds and then submits him shortly after"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

Cody picks Brahimaj by submission, noting his 9 career wins all by submission and Gillmore's 4 losses all by submission. He believes Brahimaj will take Gillmore down and submit him early, but acknowledges Brahimaj's cardio issues if it goes past the first round. Cody bets Brahimaj by submission at +100.

Brahimaj by submission +100
"i think i may bet the uh brian i buy or by submission plus 100"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

Daniel Levi picks Ramiz Brahimaj to win via first-round submission. He notes Brahimaj's wins are mostly first-round submissions and that Gillmore has a history of getting tapped. Levi acknowledges Brahimaj's confidence may be shaken after two losses, but believes Gillmore is a step down in competition. He expects Brahimaj to get back on track.

"i still think he has enough to overcome the challenge ahead of him go out there find that submission and uh you know get another first round finish in the ufc"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

The host is very confident in Brahimaj, expecting him to take the fight to the ground with ease and find a submission. He notes that Gillmore has been submitted before and that Brahimaj's jiu-jitsu is more finesse and should lead to a finish. He prefers betting Brahimaj inside the distance at -125 rather than the moneyline.

Brahimaj inside the distance (-125)
"i think brahimi is you know i've seen some slander of him on the timelines i'll say that um and i think it's a lot to do with the fact that he wasn't able to get his hand raised over …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

Paul agrees with Brahimaj by submission, citing the stylistic matchup. He notes Gillmore's poor takedown defense and Brahimaj's wrestling background. Paul is concerned about Brahimaj's cardio but expects a first-round submission.

Brahimaj by submission +100
"it's by submission when you look at rahi's brahiman she's got nine career victories right all nine of them are by submission"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

The MMA Guru picks Ramiz Brahimaj to win by first-round rear-naked choke. He dismisses Micheal Gillmore as not UFC-caliber, citing his losses to Gilbert Urbina and Andre Petroski by submission. The Guru believes Brahimaj's grappling is a perfect stylistic matchup, predicting he will land a double leg early, take the back, and choke Gillmore out in the first round. He notes that all of Gillmore's losses have been by early submission.

first round rear-naked choke submission
"i'm going to go with ram is brahimaj by first round we're naked choke"
LOSS vs Court McGee
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Jan 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Court McGee 1 54 of 91 59% 76 of 113 5 of 11 45% 1 0 10:57
Ramiz Brahimaj 0 32 of 62 51% 35 of 65 1 of 3 33% 1 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Court McGee 1 30 of 51 58% 42 of 63 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:58
Ramiz Brahimaj 0 15 of 33 45% 17 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Court McGee 0 21 of 37 56% 24 of 40 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:11
Ramiz Brahimaj 0 14 of 25 56% 15 of 26 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:30
3 Court McGee 0 3 of 3 100% 10 of 10 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:48
Ramiz Brahimaj 0 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Court McGee 54 of 91 59% 30 of 63 17 of 21 7 of 7 46 of 81 4 of 6 4 of 4
Ramiz Brahimaj 32 of 62 51% 21 of 51 10 of 10 1 of 1 25 of 53 7 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Court McGee 30 of 51 58% 13 of 31 13 of 16 4 of 4 28 of 48 1 of 2 1 of 1
Ramiz Brahimaj 15 of 33 45% 11 of 29 4 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 30 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Court McGee 21 of 37 56% 16 of 31 3 of 4 2 of 2 15 of 30 3 of 4 3 of 3
Ramiz Brahimaj 14 of 25 56% 9 of 20 5 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 20 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Court McGee 3 of 3 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ramiz Brahimaj 3 of 4 75% 1 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

Angelo picks Brahimaj, citing his world-class jiu-jitsu and the blueprint from Sean Brady's win over McGee. He notes Brahimaj's tendency to strike instead of grapple but expects him to stick to grappling here. He believes Brahimaj will get takedowns and control McGee to a decision win, as McGee is incredibly tough to finish.

"i expect the exact same thing for rami's brahimage i think he will grapple in this fight i think he'll get some takedowns and i think he'll have solid top pressure"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Court McGee

Big Brady highlights that Brahimaj has a 100% submission rate but has never been past the first round, while McGee has never been submitted in 30 fights. He expects Brahimaj to slow down after the first round, allowing McGee's cardio and striking to take over. He picks McGee by decision, noting McGee's takedown defense and ability to get back up.

"i'm going to take court megiddo in i'm going to take court mcgee to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

Cody picks Brahimaj, emphasizing his youth, athleticism, and grappling. He notes McGee's skills are outdated and his takedown defense is poor. He expects Brahimaj to win via decision, possibly with a submission attempt. He mentions McGee's cardio but doubts it will be enough.

Brahimaj by decision
"decision victory for ramis brahimaj and honestly the straight-up money line is uh not too bad"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

Daniel Levi picks Ramiz Brahimaj, citing youth and momentum. He notes that Brahimaj is a beast on the mat when fresh, but has cardio and plan B concerns. Levi believes Brahimaj can finish Court McGee, who is 37 and has shown signs of slowing. He argues that McGee's recent wins are over older opponents and that Brahimaj's talent will shine. Levi expects a statement finish from Brahimaj.

finish
"i'm going to go with ron means to to get a finisher"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Court McGee

The host favors Court McGee due to his veteran savvy, cardio, and takedown defense. He notes Brahimaj's all-offense style and suspect cardio, expecting McGee to weather an early storm and take over in later rounds. The host highlights McGee's never-submitted record and ability to get back to his feet. He predicts a decision win for McGee, possibly with a late finish if Brahimaj gasses.

Live betting opportunity on McGee after round 1 mentioned.
"official prediction here is going to be court mcgee via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

Paul leans toward Brahimaj, noting his youth, athleticism, and grappling. He expects Brahimaj to take McGee down and control him. He questions if Brahimaj can maintain pace for three rounds but thinks his submission threat will be enough. He mentions McGee's durability and cardio as potential factors.

"i'm kind of with you i'll lean towards rami's probably maj to get the job done"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

The MMA Guru picks Ramiz Brahimaj to win, noting that he is younger, trains at a good gym, and has more finishing ability. He was initially tempted by Court McGee as an underdog but realized Brahimaj is actually the underdog. He trusts Brahimaj's grappling and striking in the early rounds, and believes his desire to return after the ear injury shows dedication. He acknowledges McGee's pressure and toughness could be a factor in later rounds, but thinks Brahimaj will win the early rounds enough to take a decision or finish.

Brahimaj is an underdog.
"i think ram is brahimage is going to win this one very good in the early rounds"
Billy Goff - Fight History
LOSS vs Ramiz Brahimaj
Submission R1 3:16 · UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · May 31, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ramiz Brahimaj 0 1 of 3 33% 2 of 4 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:59
Billy Goff 0 1 of 1 100% 9 of 10 2 of 3 66% 1 0 1:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ramiz Brahimaj 0 1 of 3 33% 2 of 4 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:59
Billy Goff 0 1 of 1 100% 9 of 10 2 of 3 66% 1 0 1:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ramiz Brahimaj 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
Billy Goff 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ramiz Brahimaj 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
Billy Goff 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0
CANCEL vs Ko Seok-hyun
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 18, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Billy Goff

Angelo picks Billy Goff confidently, praising his well-rounded skills, clean boxing, wrestling, and toughness. He describes Ko Seok-hyun as stiff and powerful but lacking fluidity, and believes Goff's speed, durability, and versatility will lead to a dominant performance. The only concern is Goff's long layoff.

"I think Billy dominates this fight and I think these odds are solid."
LOSS vs Trey Waters
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Trey Waters 0 116 of 249 46% 129 of 265 1 of 12 8% 0 0 4:06
Billy Goff 0 96 of 225 42% 107 of 236 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Trey Waters 0 38 of 91 41% 43 of 96 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:40
Billy Goff 0 38 of 78 48% 45 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:00
2 Trey Waters 0 51 of 95 53% 54 of 98 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:23
Billy Goff 0 31 of 84 36% 32 of 85 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
3 Trey Waters 0 27 of 63 42% 32 of 71 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:03
Billy Goff 0 27 of 63 42% 30 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Trey Waters 116 of 249 46% 64 of 176 18 of 33 34 of 40 108 of 236 8 of 13 0 of 0
Billy Goff 96 of 225 42% 88 of 211 7 of 13 1 of 1 94 of 223 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Trey Waters 38 of 91 41% 24 of 68 3 of 10 11 of 13 35 of 87 3 of 4 0 of 0
Billy Goff 38 of 78 48% 33 of 71 4 of 6 1 of 1 36 of 76 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Trey Waters 51 of 95 53% 27 of 66 12 of 15 12 of 14 46 of 86 5 of 9 0 of 0
Billy Goff 31 of 84 36% 29 of 79 2 of 5 0 of 0 31 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Trey Waters 27 of 63 42% 13 of 42 3 of 8 11 of 13 27 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
Billy Goff 27 of 63 42% 26 of 61 1 of 2 0 of 0 27 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Trey Waters

Angelo picks Trey Waters, citing his size (6'5" at welterweight), takedown defense, and striking offense. He notes that Waters defended seven takedowns in his last fight and out-struck his opponent. He acknowledges Billy Goff's well-roundedness but believes Waters' size and power will be too much. He mentions the line movement from Goff being a favorite to now a dog.

"Trey Waters has to be the pick he's minus 155"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Billy Goff

Big Brady picks Billy Goff to knock out Trey Waters in the second round. He believes Goff will pressure Waters, who has a hands-down style and is hittable, and that Goff's power will catch Waters. He notes that Goff is a dog who can come back from adversity, while Waters has a solid chin but can be hit. He expects a knockout and thinks Goff will be the one doing the serving.

"I'm going to take Billy gof to go out there and do the serving and knock out Trey Waters in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Trey Waters

Cody picks Waters, noting his length, volume, and ability to fight at range. He believes Waters can outpoint Goff, who is a brawler with poor defense. Cody mentions that Waters has good cardio and chin, and Goff's wild style leaves openings. He also notes that Goff's takedown threat is uncertain, and if he doesn't wrestle, Waters will piece him up. Cody likes Waters by decision at plus odds.

Waters by decision (+475) is a potential sprinkle
"Trey Waters would be the rifle favor as far as I'm concerned"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Trey Waters

Daniel Vreeland picks Trey Waters, citing his significant length advantage (6'5" with 77-inch reach) and smooth striking style. He believes Goff is too hittable and will struggle to close the distance. He predicts Waters will pick Goff apart and eventually get a finish, possibly under 2.5 rounds.

under 2.5 rounds
"I just think Trey Waters the length the kind of finesse the circling on the outside kind of picking this man apart and eventually getting a finish."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Billy Goff

The host likes Goff's pressure and durability to overcome Waters' height and reach advantage. He expects Goff to crash the pocket effectively, mix in takedowns, and potentially finish. He notes Waters struggled against pressure and grappling in the past. The pick is a lean, as he acknowledges Waters' tough puzzle but favors Goff's style.

"I think gof can make this very competitive and actually pull off the victory in the spot."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Trey Waters

Paul picks Waters, agreeing with Cody. He notes that Waters has a reach advantage and uses it well, as seen against Quinlan. Goff is a brawler who leaves his chin out and has been hurt before. Paul thinks Waters can avoid Goff's power and outwork him. He is comfortable with Waters as a slight favorite.

"I think Trey Waters does have the recipe here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Trey Waters

The MMA Guru picks Trey Waters over Billy Goff, noting that most people are picking Goff as an underdog but he disagrees. He believes Waters' long, rangy style and distance control will be problematic for Goff, who likes to fight on the inside and walk opponents down. He also questions Goff's level of competition and thinks Waters has more room for improvement.

"I'm going Trey Waters... I think his long lanky style is going to be good enough here."
TKO (punches) R1 3:49 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Aug 26, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Billy Goff 1 40 of 85 47% 43 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Yusaku Kinoshita 0 17 of 53 32% 17 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Billy Goff 1 40 of 85 47% 43 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Yusaku Kinoshita 0 17 of 53 32% 17 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Billy Goff 40 of 85 47% 13 of 47 13 of 20 14 of 18 36 of 78 2 of 2 2 of 5
Yusaku Kinoshita 17 of 53 32% 15 of 48 2 of 5 0 of 0 17 of 52 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Billy Goff 40 of 85 47% 13 of 47 13 of 20 14 of 18 36 of 78 2 of 2 2 of 5
Yusaku Kinoshita 17 of 53 32% 15 of 48 2 of 5 0 of 0 17 of 52 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Billy Goff

Angelo notes that Kinoshita has poor takedown defense and was taken down four times in his last fight, while Goff has excellent wrestling and top control. He believes Goff's pressure and grappling will be too much for Kinoshita, and he has a full unit bet on Goff at +140, which is a big bet for an underdog.

Full unit bet on Billy Goff at +140
"I like Connecticut's own Billy golf to get the win and I have a full unit on him at plus 140"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 21, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Yusaku Kinoshita

Big Brady is concerned about Billy Goff's defensive irresponsibility and tendency to get hurt early in fights. He thinks Kinoshita is dangerous and could land a clean shot that Goff may not recover from. He acknowledges Goff's toughness and recovery ability but believes Kinoshita's power is a different level. He picks Kinoshita to get an early knockout.

first round knockout
"give me kinoshita first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yusaku Kinoshita

Cody picks Kinoshita, noting his power and youth. He thinks Goff will stand and trade, which favors Kinoshita. Cody is concerned about Kinoshita's takedown defense but believes Goff won't exploit it.

"I take kineshita get the job done here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yusaku Kinoshita

Daniel picks Yusaku Kinoshita, giving him a second chance after a debut stunt. He notes that Kinoshita has vicious knockout power and athleticism, and that Billy Goff gets dropped in every fight. He acknowledges Goff's toughness and grappling, but believes Kinoshita's finishing instincts will prevail. He bet 2 units at -150 and is confident, though he admits it's a risk.

"I'm giving Japanese Conor a second chance here I'm chalking it down to a debut stunt"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 26, 2023 (fight day)
Billy Goff

James leans towards Billy Goff, citing Goff's tenacity and ability to come back from adversity. He acknowledges Kinoshita is a cleaner striker and could knock Goff out early, but if the fight goes past round one, he expects Goff to take over and drown Kinoshita. He notes the fight is volatile and does not bet it, but suggests under 2.5 rounds as a parlay piece.

under 2.5 rounds at -250 mentioned as a parlay option
"I just lean more on the golf side"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Goff

The host acknowledges Billy Goff's slick striking and wrestling background, but expresses concern about Goff's durability and Kinoshita's unorthodox karate style. He expects Goff to blend striking with wrestling and win a decision, but is not overly confident because he has been high on Kinoshita in the past. The host notes Kinoshita was finished in his UFC debut by Adam Fugitt.

"I'm actually gonna go with golf here though I feel like he can utilize the Striking to blend in his wrestling behind it and take home a decision victory in the spot not something I feel overly confident in."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yusaku Kinoshita

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Kinoshita's power and Goff's willingness to stand and bang. He thinks Kinoshita's physicality will be too much. Paul is not highly confident but leans Kinoshita.

"I'm with you I'm with you 100 bro"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Goff

The MMA Guru picks Billy Goff over Yusaku Kinoshita, trusting the American fighter's well-roundedness and US training infrastructure. He notes Goff's momentum from a Contender Series win and youth at 25, despite a year layoff due to injury. He criticizes Kinoshita's openness on the feet and exposure in grappling against Adam Fugitt. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Goff, mixing wrestling and striking.

Unanimous decision predicted; mentions possibility of first-round finish by Goff
"I'm gonna have to go with Billy goth I just trust it'll be a little bit more well-rounded because of the infrastructure in the training in the US"