UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · May 31, 2025 · Lightweight · Completed
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Age 39
Height 5' 11"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 31
Height 5' 9"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Kurt Holobaugh
4.58 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
4.24 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
0.65 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
38.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jordan Leavitt
2.21 SLpM
57.0% Str. Acc.
1.59 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
3.15 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
30.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Kurt Holobaugh
Moneyline
BetMGM +205
KO/TKO
BetMGM +600
Submission
BetMGM +900
Decision
DraftKings +500
Jordan Leavitt
Moneyline
BetRivers -210
KO/TKO
BetMGM +1200
Submission
Caesars +350
Decision
Caesars +135
Kurt Holobaugh - Fight History
LOSS vs Jordan Leavitt
Submission R1 1:39 · UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · May 31, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kurt Holobaugh 0 0 of 1 0% 7 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jordan Leavitt 0 1 of 1 100% 2 of 3 3 of 4 75% 1 0 1:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kurt Holobaugh 0 0 of 1 0% 7 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jordan Leavitt 0 1 of 1 100% 2 of 3 3 of 4 75% 1 0 1:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kurt Holobaugh 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jordan Leavitt 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kurt Holobaugh 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jordan Leavitt 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kurt Holobaugh vs. Jordan Leavitt
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Leavitt (-192), Holobaugh (+160)

Round 1
Sticking to the lightweight division, two men who have alternated wins and losses in their last four could use the W to reverse their fortunes a bit. Holobaugh (21-9, 1 NC; 2-6 UFC) may need this one to stick around in his second stint with the promotion, while “The Monkey King” Leavitt (11-3, 4-3 UFC) could have a little wiggle room should he not prevail. With Dana White’s Contender Series right around the corner, who knows how many defeated competitors will be off the roster come Monday. Referee Mike Beltran will take charge of the cage for as long as this one lasts, and it commences with a swift glove touch. Leavitt springs from side to side as Holobaugh advances towards him, and he pushes out a front kick to set up a takedown. Within seconds, “The Monkey King” wrangles Holobaugh to the mat, where he climbs from side control to half guard to exert heavy top pressure. Holobaugh scoots his way to the fence and gets to a knee, and Leavitt wrenches him back down to the mat and takes his back in a hurry. Holobaugh tries to scramble, and Leavitt slams him down on his face. Holobaugh looks to turn the corner by going after a single on Leavitt, but
Leavitt counters with a guillotine choke and transitions it to an anaconda choke and wraps it up tight. Holobaugh relaxes, possibly too much, and this allows Leavitt to turn him to his back and grip the choke all the way. Leavitt wraps his left leg up and around Holobaugh’s arm to prevent him from defending the submission, and Holobaugh’s efforts are quickly in vain as he goes out cold.
Beltran sees this and intervenes, and Holobaugh wakes up and is upset with Beltran until he learns that he got choked out. This was quick work for the returning Leavitt, who gets his hand raised for the first time in over two years.

The Official Result
Jordan Leavitt def. Kurt Holobaugh R1 1:39 via Technical Submission (Anaconda Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 18, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

Angelo picks Kurt Holobaugh, calling Jordan Leavitt a one-dimensional jiu-jitsu nerd with poor striking and wrestling setups. He believes Holobaugh's forward pressure, power, and better all-around skills will prevail, though he notes Holobaugh's age (38) and subpar takedown defense as concerns. He placed a half-unit bet on Holobaugh at plus 140.

Bet 0.5 units on Kurt Holobaugh at +140.
"Kurt Hall is going to be the pick. I think we as a sport need to evolve past these super one-dimensional."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Jordan Leavitt

Big Brady picks Jordan Leavitt due to Kurt Holobaugh's terrible takedown defense, which he describes as a huge gaping hole. He notes that Holobaugh was easily taken down by lesser wrestlers like Hernandez and Trey Ogden. Leavitt is a good grappler with improving striking, and Brady expects him to take Holobaugh down and win a decision.

by decision
"I like Kurt Hollow. I want to I want to pick him, but I can't pick him. And the reason being is Kurt Hollow has a huge gaping hole in his game. And it's huge. It's gaping. It's it's one …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jordan Leavitt

Matt picks Jordan Leavitt to win by decision. He notes that Holobaugh has poor takedown defense and is too accepting of being on his back, which plays into Leavitt's strength as a top-position grappler. Leavitt is not great on the feet but should be able to grind out a decision. Matt likes the over 2.5 rounds and Leavitt by decision prop.

fight goes to decision -135, Leavitt by decision +130, Holobaugh by decision +500, Holobaugh by KO +600
"I expect this just to be a grind for us from Leave it, maintaining that top position, grinding this fight out and winning it on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 28, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

The MMA Guru picks Kurt Holobaugh to finish Jordan Leavitt by TKO in the first or second round. He believes Holobaugh's striking and timing will be too much for Leavitt, and that Leavitt won't get an early submission. He notes Holobaugh's ability to get back up from takedowns and work in the clinch, and that the Apex environment benefits Holobaugh.

TKO in round 1 or 2
"I think Curt Hollibar is going to beat Jordan Levit... I'm going to take Curt Hollibar to finish this fight by TKO in the first or second round."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Hernandez 0 59 of 149 39% 87 of 186 4 of 5 80% 0 0 6:39
Kurt Holobaugh 0 71 of 171 41% 106 of 215 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Hernandez 0 22 of 68 32% 24 of 70 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:09
Kurt Holobaugh 0 26 of 75 34% 26 of 75 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:14
2 Alexander Hernandez 0 30 of 62 48% 37 of 75 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:01
Kurt Holobaugh 0 38 of 78 48% 48 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
3 Alexander Hernandez 0 7 of 19 36% 26 of 41 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:29
Kurt Holobaugh 0 7 of 18 38% 32 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Hernandez 59 of 149 39% 36 of 117 10 of 15 13 of 17 45 of 129 2 of 3 12 of 17
Kurt Holobaugh 71 of 171 41% 39 of 122 21 of 35 11 of 14 63 of 160 8 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Hernandez 22 of 68 32% 12 of 51 3 of 8 7 of 9 22 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kurt Holobaugh 26 of 75 34% 11 of 49 8 of 16 7 of 10 26 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexander Hernandez 30 of 62 48% 17 of 47 7 of 7 6 of 8 21 of 51 2 of 3 7 of 8
Kurt Holobaugh 38 of 78 48% 23 of 58 11 of 16 4 of 4 31 of 68 7 of 10 0 of 0
3 Alexander Hernandez 7 of 19 36% 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 5 of 9
Kurt Holobaugh 7 of 18 38% 5 of 15 2 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt Holobaugh
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-192), Holobaugh (+160)

Round 1
Must-win fights are the name of the game at this UFC Vegas 104 card, as formerly highly touted prospect Hernandez (15-8, 7-7 UFC) has fallen on hard times as of late, winner of just two of his last six. Meanwhile, Holobaugh (21-8, 1 NC; 2-5 UFC) is on his third run in the Octagon, and this stint is more successful than others in the past as he has won a few times. Referee Kerry Hatley will take charge of the lightweights in this next match, and they start things off by bumping fists. Both men let their legs fly, smacking one another with heavy low kicks to start off. Holobaugh jabs to the body and follows with a high kick that bangs into Hernandez’ chest, and the Texan parries another advance from Holobaugh. Hernandez stands his man up with a left hand, and he slides away from any counter. Kicks on the inside and outside of Holobaugh’s leg land, and he surges into action, swarming forward with punches that catch Hernandez on the chin. They bang heads briefly, and before Hatley can say something, Hernandez stops and asks if Holobaugh is alright. They get right back to it, chasing one another around with powerful punch combinations. Holobaugh sneaks in a body kick, and Hernandez responds in kind. This happens again, just with Hernandez striking first. The lightweights take turns engaging, and they continue mirroring one another with their exchanges. One lands, the other gives him something back to think about, and the series carries on. Hernandez comes out swinging with big fists, and Holobaugh slips them and tries to do the same. When Hernandez has his gloves bang into Holobaugh’s, Holobaugh retaliates with a clubbing right hand behind the ear and floors Hernandez with another right hand. Hernandez springs right back up and sits down on a left hand that momentarily stuns his opponent. Hernandez uses his jab to set up strikes, pumping it and putting at least one or two behind it. Holobaugh is just as active, racing at Hernandez and getting met with a takedown attempt. Holobaugh considers grabbing the cage, but he instead sets up a guillotine choke and hits the ground on his back. He continues squeezing the submission, and Hernandez signals a thumbs-up before the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh

Round 2
Holobaugh has a fire lit under his belly between rounds, and he channels that by marching Hernandez down and throwing everything he can at him. Punches, knees, elbows and even a spinning wheel kick come from “The Hurt,” who is putting the hurt on Hernandez in the early going. Hernandez is tough as a two-dollar steak, and he fires back at his constantly advancing foe. Hernandez chops at the lead leg a few times, and Holobaugh has to change stances because of it. This does not slow Holobaugh, who instead plods forward throwing hands. Hernandez catches him with a right hand, and Holobaugh drills him with his own overhand right that staggers the Texan. Hernandez uses the wall behind him to gather his bearings, and he pushes off of it and re-engages. He only lands a few strikes before Holobaugh is back to imposing his volume and will on his quickly bloodied opponent. Holobaugh checks a kick and meets Hernandez with a right hand, and Hernandez sits in the pocket trying to trade back. When Holobaugh overswings with a right hook, Hernandez takes the wind out of his sails by nailing a perfect double-leg takedown. Hernandez keeps Holobaugh on his back, working with ground strikes while Holobaugh rolls for an armbar. Hernandez is having none of it, staying as heavy as he can while drumming him with several left hands. Holobaugh sells out for the armbar, and he does not have the right grip so Hernandez is in no danger. “The Great Ape” hammers Holobaugh with several big punches, mixing between smothering top control and fierce offense. The round ends with Hernandez hacking at his foe with elbows.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh

Round 3
There is one last clap of hands for the lightweights to engage, and Hernandez immediately shoots in for a double and plants Holobaugh on his back. Hernandez moves to side control, and Holobaugh scrambles and sits up. Hernandez drags him down from behind, and he reasserts himself in half guard while isolating an arm-triangle choke. When Holobaugh scrambles, Hernandez is able to jump on top of him and claim full mount for a second before getting pulled back to half guard again. Holobaugh’s scrambles nearly result in him getting caught in an arm-triangle, and Hernandez is a 155-pound lead weight on his chest. Hernandez has his leg wrapped around Holobaugh’s, and when he moves it, Holobaugh explodes back to his feet. It is now punching time, as Holobaugh wants to slug his foe in the chops. Hernandez looks for the takedown that does not come, and Holobaugh marches him down loaded for bear. Hernandez ducks a punch and hits a crucial double, and he lands in half guard and quickly wraps up a head-and-arm choke. Holobaugh is not overly concerned, with Hernandez not able to get leverage on the other side to lock it down. Holobaugh grabs hold of a kimura—could we see a third in consecutive fights?—but it is not there. Hernandez frees his limb and opens up with torrid offense from up top, laying into “The Hurt” with everything he has left. The two go the distance, and the second round may be the one to decide the victor.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Holobaugh)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Holobaugh)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Holobaugh)

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Kurt Holobaugh via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

Angelo picks Kurt Holobaugh over Alexander Hernandez. He criticizes Hernandez's inconsistency and tendency to wear damage, while Holobaugh's pressure and striking should be effective. Angelo notes that judges favor visible damage, which Holobaugh can inflict. He calls it a 'recipe for success' for Holobaugh.

"I'm actually going to pick Kurt here. I think the pressure the Striking all of that combined with the fact that Alex wears damage on his face and the only thing Vegas judges give a [__] about is tiny little …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

Big Brady picks Kurt Holobaugh as an underdog, citing Alexander Hernandez's inconsistency, poor cardio, and tendency to crumble under adversity. He notes that Hernandez has lost to fighters like Bill Algeo, Thiago Moises, and Damon Jackson when pressured. Brady believes Holobaugh is tough, has solid cardio, and good grappling, and can have success on the feet as well. He predicts a close decision win for Holobaugh, possibly winning the second and third rounds.

Holobaugh by decision
"I'll take the dog here and Hollow ball to get it done... plus 155 I'll take Hollow ball here to win."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody picks Angela Hill as a dog, citing her high volume and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes that Hill's fights are often close and she tends to fight to the level of her competition. He believes she can exploit Yasmin Lucindo's reliance on takedowns and lack of striking volume.

"Angela Hill dog money is almost kind of like a system play because she kind of fights the level of her competition every single fight. They're very very close. They kind of end up being coin flippy."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

Connor picks Holobaugh because he enjoys rooting for him more, but acknowledges it's a lean. He notes that Holobaugh's relentless pressure and willingness to brawl could cause Hernandez to collapse mentally, as seen in his losses to Damon Jackson, Bill Algeo, and Billy Quarantillo. However, he admits Holobaugh makes terrible decisions and is less athletic.

"I think I'm gonna pick Hollabaugh just because I enjoy rooting for him more."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

The host believes Holobaugh will dictate the pace, which is bad for Hernandez. He expects Holobaugh to touch up Hernandez over 15 minutes and potentially find a finish after a bad takedown attempt from Hernandez in deep water, either by knockout or club and sub.

finish by knockout or club and sub
"I believe halah should be able to dictate the pace of this matchup which usually is not a good sign for Hernandez that will lead halot to touching up Hernandez over the course of 15 minutes and potentially even finding …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Paul also picks Angela Hill, emphasizing her experience against Brazilian opponents and her ability to mix takedowns. He notes that Lucindo struggled against Amanda Lemos when taken down and reversed. He believes Hill can bank early rounds with volume and takedowns, then survive the third.

"I'm actually on Angela Hill as well. I mean, uh you can tell that she's slowing down. Her last fight, the speed's there in the first round. The second round, you're starting to see her fade a lot more. body …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Hernandez, liking him at lightweight where he performs better. He notes Hernandez trains at Factory X Muay Thai now and has a win over Jim Miller. He thinks Hernandez's shot selection and leg kicks will be effective against Kurt Holobaugh, who is 38 years old. He also mentions Hernandez can use offensive takedowns while fresh. He considers Holobaugh's win over Trey Ogden but believes Hernandez is a step above.

"I'm going to go with Alexander Hernandez I like him at lightweight does anyone else like Alexander Hernandez at lightweight"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Zane picks Hernandez for athletic reasons, noting that Hernandez is a rock-solid wrestler and hits harder than Holobaugh's recent opponents. He acknowledges that Holobaugh's brawling pressure could cause Hernandez to collapse mentally, but believes Hernandez's physical advantages and the fact that Holobaugh makes terrible decisions give him the edge.

Odds: Hernandez opened -218, now -197; Holobaugh opened +178, now +181. Zane calls it a sensible line.
"I'm gonna stick with Hernandez."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · Jul 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kurt Holobaugh 0 92 of 171 53% 171 of 275 1 of 4 25% 0 1 5:21
Kaynan Kruschewsky 0 89 of 156 57% 115 of 195 3 of 3 100% 2 0 2:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kurt Holobaugh 0 26 of 65 40% 52 of 100 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:57
Kaynan Kruschewsky 0 31 of 57 54% 38 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
2 Kurt Holobaugh 0 48 of 79 60% 66 of 101 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:28
Kaynan Kruschewsky 0 36 of 65 55% 40 of 69 1 of 1 100% 2 0 0:32
3 Kurt Holobaugh 0 18 of 27 66% 53 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:56
Kaynan Kruschewsky 0 22 of 34 64% 37 of 59 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kurt Holobaugh 92 of 171 53% 58 of 131 25 of 30 9 of 10 74 of 141 18 of 30 0 of 0
Kaynan Kruschewsky 89 of 156 57% 61 of 120 27 of 35 1 of 1 53 of 114 28 of 33 8 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kurt Holobaugh 26 of 65 40% 15 of 49 7 of 11 4 of 5 19 of 50 7 of 15 0 of 0
Kaynan Kruschewsky 31 of 57 54% 15 of 39 15 of 17 1 of 1 16 of 39 15 of 18 0 of 0
2 Kurt Holobaugh 48 of 79 60% 34 of 64 10 of 11 4 of 4 42 of 71 6 of 8 0 of 0
Kaynan Kruschewsky 36 of 65 55% 28 of 53 8 of 12 0 of 0 25 of 54 11 of 11 0 of 0
3 Kurt Holobaugh 18 of 27 66% 9 of 18 8 of 8 1 of 1 13 of 20 5 of 7 0 of 0
Kaynan Kruschewsky 22 of 34 64% 18 of 28 4 of 6 0 of 0 12 of 21 2 of 4 8 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

Angelo picks Kurt Holobaugh with very low confidence, citing his durability and composure. He notes that Kruschewsky is the better striker and more dangerous, but Holobaugh's wrestling could be key if he uses it. He explicitly says he will not bet on this fight unless a ridiculous prop appears.

will not bet unless ridiculous prop appears
"I'm going to pick Kurt here but with basically no confidence at all and certainly no money"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kaynan Kruschewsky

Cody picks Kruschewsky, citing his youth (26 vs 38), better cardio, and ability to grapple. He criticizes Holobaugh for training at his own gym with no elite partners and expects him to fade. He notes both are BJJ black belts but thinks Kruschewsky's wrestling and durability give him the edge, though he admits it's a close fight.

"The pick is Keenan but yeah again it's just very much and a card of all these fights are like that."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kaynan Kruschewsky

Daniel Vreeland picks Kaynan Kruschewsky, citing his youth, length, and higher pace. He notes Holobaugh's declining takedown defense and lack of urgency to get back up, as seen in recent fights. Vreeland believes Kruschewsky is catching Holobaugh at the right time and will win by decision or possibly a finish.

"I just see kensky being the younger hungrier fresher Stronger Just a Little More youthful vigor and will to win and for that reason I'm going go keski here to get his first UFC win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

Holobaugh is a +115 underdog. He is aggressive, powerful, and has solid durability. Kruschewsky is coming off a bad knockout loss and his chin is a question mark. Holobaugh can force a pocket exchange and land a big shot to finish. The fight is volatile, but Holobaugh's pressure and power give him the edge.

"I lean halah here I think that will see him uh Force keski into a pocket exchange and that's going to allow Halal to land a big shot and put him out cold at plus 115"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kaynan Kruschewsky

Paul agrees with Cody, siding with Kruschewsky on volume and power. He thinks the fight will come down to striking and that Kruschewsky has the edge there. He doesn't elaborate much but concurs with the pick.

"I'm with you."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kaynan Kruschewsky

The MMA Guru picks Kaynan Kruschewsky over Kurt Holobaugh, citing Holobaugh's age and recent loss to Trey Ogden. He notes Kruschewsky is a young up-and-comer with a 15-2 record, though not that young. He mentions Kruschewsky's size and reach advantage, and believes this is Kruschewsky's time more than Holobaugh's.

"I'm going to go with KUSI over Kurt hollar I can't trust Kurt hollar to win a fight he just seems too old"
LOSS vs Trey Ogden
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Trey Ogden 0 29 of 68 42% 129 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Kurt Holobaugh 0 35 of 66 53% 225 of 320 3 of 4 75% 0 0 11:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Trey Ogden 0 5 of 14 35% 43 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kurt Holobaugh 0 1 of 11 9% 68 of 94 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:12
2 Trey Ogden 0 20 of 42 47% 39 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Kurt Holobaugh 0 26 of 41 63% 75 of 119 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:52
3 Trey Ogden 0 4 of 12 33% 47 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kurt Holobaugh 0 8 of 14 57% 82 of 107 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Trey Ogden 29 of 68 42% 9 of 43 9 of 12 11 of 13 24 of 63 3 of 3 2 of 2
Kurt Holobaugh 35 of 66 53% 22 of 52 4 of 4 9 of 10 28 of 59 2 of 2 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Trey Ogden 5 of 14 35% 1 of 10 2 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1
Kurt Holobaugh 1 of 11 9% 1 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Trey Ogden 20 of 42 47% 5 of 25 7 of 8 8 of 9 16 of 38 3 of 3 1 of 1
Kurt Holobaugh 26 of 41 63% 15 of 29 4 of 4 7 of 8 19 of 34 2 of 2 5 of 5
3 Trey Ogden 4 of 12 33% 3 of 8 0 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kurt Holobaugh 8 of 14 57% 6 of 12 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kurt Holobaugh vs. Trey Ogden
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ogden (-155), Holobaugh (+130)

Round 1
Two submission specialists come together in the preliminary headliner, and both men are in desperate need of a win given their track records with the promotion thus far. Holobaugh (20-7, 1 NC; 1-4 UFC) is trying to make his third stint in the UFC the best, while Ogden (16-6, 1 NC; 1-2, 1 NC UFC) is still fuming about a premature stoppage of Nikolas Motta from November that cost him a win bonus. Barring something crazy, a win bonus will be doled out, and referee Mark Smith may be the first to know who that is. The lightweights touch gloves, and Holobaugh puts a few quick combinations together as Ogden sits down on a leg kick and swatting left hand. Ogden doubles up on a jab and eats a body shot, and Holobaugh crowds him and kicks him hard on the lead leg. Ogden feints a takedown, drawing a short flurry of strikes that allows him to shoot and take Holobaugh down to the mat. Ogden gets busy with flailing punches, and Holobaugh is just as busy if not more as he attacks with short strikes and elbows. Ogden lowers himself down in pursuit of an arm-triangle choke, and he gets smacked a few times in the back of the head. Ogden, in half guard, again presses his shoulder down for the arm-triangle, and he bops Holobaugh in the side of the head with short but irritating hammerfists. Holobaugh hooks his legs around Ogden’s to keep him from passing or advancing position, so Ogden sits there comfortably scoring short punches and shoulder strikes. Ogden postures up to land harder blows, and he drives his shoulder in Holobaugh’s chin once more to conclude the frame.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden

Round 2
Holobaugh practically sprints out of his corner to engage, and he eats a leg kick on the way in. Holobaugh tries to come out swinging again, and Ogden kicks his other leg out. Ogden chews up both legs with kicks, and he fakes his way forward and kiais to draw out a reaction. Ogden smacks him in the face with a question mark kick, and he slides away as Holobaugh chases for a counter. Holobaugh lands a body kick, and they trade one-twos. Ogden digs a kick to the ribcage, and he has a leg kick checked when he backs up against the cage. Ogden shoots for a takedown, and Holobaugh stuffs him and rings his bell with two fierce right hands. Ogden jabs once to make him retreat, and he points at Holobaugh after absorbing a low kick. Ogden tries to tie him up when Holobaugh crowds him, and he gets off a few short knees and trips Holobaugh up to dump him on the ground. Ogden threatens with an arm-triangle choke, pressing his shoulder down on the windpipe until smashing them down on Holobaugh’s face. Holobaugh turns to his side in an effort to escape, and Ogden pounds away at him with his free right hand. Ogden’s fist continues to meet face again and again, and Holobaugh can only grab Ogden’s wrist or block his face to defend from the methodical bludgeoning. Ogden fearlessly clubs away, picking up the pace as he looks for a stoppage. Holobaugh recovers well enough to stave off Smith’s itchy trigger finger, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden

Round 3
The gloves are touched, and Holobaugh aggressively pursues his man around the cage only to eat a number of jabs and low kicks while trying to close the distance. Ogden stays elusive and does not let Holobaugh crowd him, but he stands still and gets beaned with two right hands. As he shakes it off, he shoots in for a perfect takedown that deposits the TUF winner on his back. Holobaugh closes guard as Ogden works him from on top, and the man now known as “Shamurai” methodically climbs into half guard while continuously beating on his opponent. Ogden grinds out time as he clubs Holobaugh with hammerfists and punches, not allowing Holobaugh to breathe or get anything off of merit on his own side. With a minute to go, Ogden jumps into full mount, and he decides against trying anything reckless. The control on top carries out until the final bell, and Holobaugh gets up and walks off irritated about the fight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (30-27 Ogden)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (30-27 Ogden)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (30-27 Ogden)

The Official Result
Trey Ogden def. Kurt Holobaugh via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Trey Ogden

Angelo is confident in Trey Ogden, having placed a half-unit bet on him at -146. He believes Ogden can hang in the striking, get takedowns, and work from top position. He notes that Ogden was winning the striking exchanges in his last fight before the early stoppage, and his grappling should be enough to overcome Holobaugh's BJJ.

half unit bet at -146
"I like Trey Ogden to win this fight I'm pretty confident in Trey Ogden I have a half of a unit on Trey Ogden at minus 146"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

Big Brady picks Kurt Holobaugh, citing his dangerous submissions and Trey Ogden's history of being submitted (three times, twice by guillotine). He notes Holobaugh is a wild man who comes forward, while Ogden is more technical but has been submitted before. He predicts Holobaugh will submit Ogden in the second round.

second round submission
"I'm going to take Hollow ball here to win this fight I think he's gonna I'll say gets a sub I'll say he submits Trey Ogden at some point I just think Hala so dangerous on the mat"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

Cody picks Holobaugh, citing his forward pressure, volume, and submission threat. He notes that Ogden's wrestling may not hold Holobaugh down, and Holobaugh's scrambling and aggression could sway judges. Cody sees Holobaugh as the dog with value.

"Kurt Hala and the pick is going to be Kurt HBA."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Kurt Holobaugh, agreeing with the co-host that this is a pick'em fight. He notes Ogden's recent win was against a low-level opponent and that Holobaugh has more power and output. He prefers the underdog in a close fight, citing judging uncertainty.

"I'm gonna also go with Halo there"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Trey Ogden

Ogden showed a complete performance in his last fight (no contest) with seamless striking and grappling. He should dictate the pace from the outside with straight shots and then mix in takedowns. Holobaugh is a BJJ black belt but has poor takedown defense and tends to invite grappling. Ogden's constant movement and jab should cause issues, leading to a decision win.

Ogden by decision
"I do like Ogden here I think he can dictate and control the pace of this fight with relative ease... I'm going to go with Ogden here I think Ogden wins by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

Paul sides with Cody, noting Holobaugh's experience and dangerous submission game. He thinks Ogden's game plan of taking down Holobaugh is risky due to Holobaugh's ability to scramble and threaten submissions. Paul picks the veteran.

"I'll side with you with the veteran and Kurt halah."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

The MMA Guru picks Kurt Holobaugh over Trey Ogden, praising Holobaugh's boxing and ground game. He thinks Holobaugh will drop Ogden and then submit him via guillotine choke after Ogden shoots for a takedown. He notes Holobaugh's experience and full training camp.

submission win, round one or two
"I'm going Kurt hollar... drops Trey Ogden... gets Guillotine choked out by Kurt hollar in round one or two"
Submission (triangle choke) R2 2:39 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kurt Holobaugh 0 61 of 119 51% 85 of 144 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:08
Austin Hubbard 0 44 of 107 41% 61 of 125 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kurt Holobaugh 0 37 of 78 47% 58 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Austin Hubbard 0 31 of 74 41% 48 of 92 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:06
2 Kurt Holobaugh 0 24 of 41 58% 27 of 44 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:08
Austin Hubbard 0 13 of 33 39% 13 of 33 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kurt Holobaugh 61 of 119 51% 46 of 101 10 of 12 5 of 6 50 of 106 9 of 10 2 of 3
Austin Hubbard 44 of 107 41% 25 of 86 17 of 19 2 of 2 31 of 87 9 of 12 4 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kurt Holobaugh 37 of 78 47% 26 of 64 6 of 8 5 of 6 30 of 71 7 of 7 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 31 of 74 41% 16 of 58 14 of 15 1 of 1 20 of 57 7 of 9 4 of 8
2 Kurt Holobaugh 24 of 41 58% 20 of 37 4 of 4 0 of 0 20 of 35 2 of 3 2 of 3
Austin Hubbard 13 of 33 39% 9 of 28 3 of 4 1 of 1 11 of 30 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

Angelo likes Kurt Holobaugh as an underdog despite his 0-6 UFC record, noting that his losses were to top competition like Thiago Moises, Shane Burgos, and Humberto Bandenay. He believes Holobaugh's striking combinations and power will be too much for Austin Hubbard, though he acknowledges Hubbard's chin and takedown ability as concerns. He expects Holobaugh to win and become the Ultimate Fighter champion.

"I do like Kurt as the underdog here... I do think Kurt's striking combinations and power are going to be too much for Austin."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

Cody likes Holobaugh's momentum from The Ultimate Fighter, his durability, and power. He thinks Hubbard is a volume pressure fighter but Holobaugh has a chip on his shoulder and nothing to lose. He picks Holobaugh as an underdog to win a decision or late finish.

"I will take the underdog shot here on Kurt Hall about to get the job done"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Austin Hubbard

Daniel Levi picks Austin Hubbard to do his typical thing, turning the fight into a sparring match and not taking risks. He notes that Hubbard is hard to finish and has survived bad spots against high-level grapplers. However, Levi is not laying the price and calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He prefers the over and Holobaugh decision props.

Goes the distance minus 130; Holobaugh decision plus 400
"Pure pick I'll go Hubbard to do his typical thing but I'm not laying this price on him"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

Lucrative James sees value on Kurt Holobaugh as an underdog, believing the fight should be a pick'em. He notes Holobaugh has more finishing threat and has faced better competition, while Austin Hubbard relies on toughness and volume but lacks major skills. However, he acknowledges Holobaugh's age (36) and potential to be out-volumed.

"I think there's value on the dog again Kurt holliber"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Austin Hubbard

Hubbard has added wrinkles to his game, mixing striking with takedowns. He should be competitive on the feet and then use his wrestling to grind out Holobaugh, who struggles with defensive grappling. Hubbard's kicks and range control will set up takedowns. The line has moved to a reasonable -160/-170 range, making him a good play.

"I'm more than happy to take a shot on him at that point as I believe he grinds this fight out has the better grappling here offensively speaking and that should allow him to pick up a decision Victory"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Austin Hubbard

The MMA Guru picks Austin Hubbard over Kurt Holobaugh. He acknowledges Holobaugh's pocket boxing skills but believes Hubbard's straight punches, front kicks, and low kicks will keep him from standing in the pocket. Hubbard also has offensive grappling and excellent takedown defense, allowing him to dictate where the fight takes place. The Guru sees Hubbard's versatility as too much for Holobaugh.

"I'm gonna go with Austin Hubbard over Kurt hollabaugh"
LOSS vs Thiago Moises
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · May 11, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Thiago Moises 0 66 of 102 64% 115 of 160 4 of 6 66% 1 0 7:52
Kurt Holobaugh 0 39 of 115 33% 108 of 189 2 of 6 33% 0 0 3:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Thiago Moises 0 20 of 33 60% 28 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:50
Kurt Holobaugh 0 11 of 37 29% 42 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:07
2 Thiago Moises 0 18 of 32 56% 19 of 34 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:02
Kurt Holobaugh 0 24 of 66 36% 46 of 90 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:18
3 Thiago Moises 0 28 of 37 75% 68 of 82 2 of 3 66% 1 0 3:00
Kurt Holobaugh 0 4 of 12 33% 20 of 28 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Thiago Moises 66 of 102 64% 59 of 92 2 of 4 5 of 6 28 of 53 8 of 11 30 of 38
Kurt Holobaugh 39 of 115 33% 16 of 82 21 of 30 2 of 3 24 of 93 14 of 21 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Thiago Moises 20 of 33 60% 17 of 29 0 of 1 3 of 3 10 of 18 2 of 3 8 of 12
Kurt Holobaugh 11 of 37 29% 7 of 32 3 of 3 1 of 2 11 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Thiago Moises 18 of 32 56% 17 of 29 0 of 1 1 of 2 14 of 26 3 of 5 1 of 1
Kurt Holobaugh 24 of 66 36% 6 of 39 17 of 26 1 of 1 11 of 46 13 of 20 0 of 0
3 Thiago Moises 28 of 37 75% 25 of 34 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 9 3 of 3 21 of 25
Kurt Holobaugh 4 of 12 33% 3 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kurt Holobaugh vs. Thiago Moises

Round 1
Lightweights Holobaugh (17-6, 1 N/C) and Moises (11-3) face off in a matchup of DWTNCS alums in need of a win. Referee Marc Goddard makes his first appearance of the evening. Holobaugh grabs a single-leg in the first 15 seconds, using it to run Moises to the fence. The Brazilian defends well, however, and Holobaugh gives it up. They return to circling. Moments later, Holobaugh goes for a single, once again on the right leg, and Moises once again defends. They disengage, and Moises surprises Holobaugh by dropping for a single-leg takedown of his own, running Holobaugh to the canvas. Holobaugh grabs a front headlock on the way down, but Moises moves to the opposite side and Holobaugh wisely lets go. Moises lands in full guard, then passes to half-guard. Holobaugh regains full guard as the “Uh! Vai morrer!” chants start up. Holobaugh goes high with his legs, and Moises postures up. The round ends with Moises still in Holobaugh’s full guard.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Moises

Round 2
Holobaugh lands a right low kick immediately. Moises tags him with a right hook, then throws a front kick right up the middle that touches Holobaugh’s chin. Just under a minute into the round, Moises times Holobaugh for a double-leg, getting in on his hips and driving him to the canvas easily. He scoots Holobaugh over to the fence, working in the Louisianan’s guard. Holobaugh shrimps and attempts to scramble to his feet, and manages to escape. Halfway through the round, Holobaugh clinches and hold Moises against the fence. Holobaugh lands a left hook to the head and a right to the body that get Moises’ attention. With a minute left, Moises tries to drop for a takedown, Holobaugh defends, but Moises comes across the top with a hard elbow to the temple. Right before the 10-second clapper, Holobaugh lands a three-piece combo with Moises backed up against the fence. Moises responds with a pair of level elbow strikes.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Moises

Round 3
Moises steps inside and hits Holobaugh with a one-two, then another combo. He drops and drives Holobaugh to the ground again. He works from half-guard as Holobaugh tries to hip escape. Moises sticks to him, staying on top and giving Holobaugh nowhere to go. Against the fence, Holobaugh scrambles out but gives up his back. Moises gets his arm under the chin, but without hooks he gives the choke up. Holobaugh reverses briefly, but Moises scrambles and ends up on top again. With under 90 seconds left, it’s been Moises all over Holobaugh all round. In the final half-minute, he flurries from top position, landing some hard shots but not doing enough to get Goddard to step in. This one will go to the judges.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Moises (30-27 Moises)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises (30-27 Moises)
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Moises (30-27 Moises)

The Official Result
Thiago Moises def. Kurt Holobaugh via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)
LOSS vs Shane Burgos
Submission (armbar) R1 2:11 · UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · Nov 03, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shane Burgos 0 17 of 24 70% 17 of 24 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Kurt Holobaugh 1 21 of 51 41% 26 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shane Burgos 0 17 of 24 70% 17 of 24 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Kurt Holobaugh 1 21 of 51 41% 26 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shane Burgos 17 of 24 70% 13 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 2 17 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kurt Holobaugh 21 of 51 41% 14 of 40 1 of 2 6 of 9 19 of 48 1 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shane Burgos 17 of 24 70% 13 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 2 17 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kurt Holobaugh 21 of 51 41% 14 of 40 1 of 2 6 of 9 19 of 48 1 of 2 1 of 1
LOSS vs Raoni Barcelos
TKO (punches) R3 1:29 · UFC Fight Night: dos Santos vs. Ivanov · Jul 14, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raoni Barcelos 0 102 of 226 45% 130 of 256 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:39
Kurt Holobaugh 1 82 of 146 56% 95 of 160 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raoni Barcelos 0 49 of 107 45% 53 of 111 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Kurt Holobaugh 0 34 of 68 50% 38 of 72 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:49
2 Raoni Barcelos 0 37 of 76 48% 61 of 102 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:38
Kurt Holobaugh 0 30 of 48 62% 39 of 58 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:44
3 Raoni Barcelos 0 16 of 43 37% 16 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kurt Holobaugh 1 18 of 30 60% 18 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raoni Barcelos 102 of 226 45% 88 of 206 8 of 12 6 of 8 88 of 208 6 of 8 8 of 10
Kurt Holobaugh 82 of 146 56% 76 of 138 5 of 7 1 of 1 67 of 129 8 of 9 7 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raoni Barcelos 49 of 107 45% 38 of 93 6 of 8 5 of 6 45 of 101 2 of 3 2 of 3
Kurt Holobaugh 34 of 68 50% 32 of 65 1 of 2 1 of 1 28 of 62 6 of 6 0 of 0
2 Raoni Barcelos 37 of 76 48% 34 of 71 2 of 3 1 of 2 27 of 64 4 of 5 6 of 7
Kurt Holobaugh 30 of 48 62% 26 of 43 4 of 5 0 of 0 21 of 37 2 of 3 7 of 8
3 Raoni Barcelos 16 of 43 37% 16 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0 16 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kurt Holobaugh 18 of 30 60% 18 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0 18 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Raoni Barcelos vs. Kurt Holobaugh

Round 1
Holobaugh lands an early leg kick, but it's Barcelos exploding inside to pop the American with a speedy right hand. Holobaugh grabs Barcelos in the Thai clinch to deliver a knee, then goes back to leg-kicking as the featherweights circle in the second minute. Barcelos steps inside and thumps Holobaugh with an uppercut before dipping out of range. Barcelos looks to be the speedier fighter but Holobaugh is using good head movement to slip his punches and counter effectively. Barcelos fakes a shot and comes back up to sting Holobaugh with another uppercut. Halfway through the middle of a busy round, it's Holobaugh keeping up the busier pace, while Barcelos lands sporadic but heavy punches. Barcelos completes a quick takedown as they hit the final 60 seconds; Holobaugh is back up quickly but gets blasted by a Barcelos right hand on his way out. Barcelos sprawls on a shot and puts Holobaugh in deep trouble with a tight guillotine, but the American is able to hold out for the final 10 seconds.

Sherdog Scores
Mike Fridley scores the round 10-9 Barcelos
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Barcelos
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 Barcelos

Round 2
Barcelos opens the second round with a looping left hook, then catches an incoming Holobaugh with a straight counter. Holobaugh jabs his way inside, then lands a right to the body. The featherweights are standing toe-to-toe in the middle and throwing heavy shots, with both men landing and neither man budging. Barcelos opts to switch things up with a takedown, but the longer Holobaugh is threatening with a triangle as soon as they hit the mat. Barcelos stands to adjust and then comes back down in Holobaugh's half guard. Holobaugh works his way up against the wall, and they're back on their feet with half the round remaining. Barcelos stings Holobaugh with a punch between the eyes, then hits a lovely trip takedown in the center of the cage. Barcelos stands with 60 seconds left, allowing Holobaugh to get back on his feet. Barcelos tries a spinning kick and gets caught on the turn-around, with Holobaugh jumping on his back to sink in a hook. Barcelos' left side is flush to the fence, blocking Holobaugh's second hook, and keeping Barcelos out of trouble until the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Mike Fridley scores the round 10-9 Barcelos
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Barcelos
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 Barcelos

Round 3
Barcelos comes over the top with a good right hand, gets jabbed backward by Holobaugh, then swings back with a heavy combination when the Louisianan gets caught sleeping. Holobaugh continues to jab his way forward laziily, and Barcelos makes him pay with a blistering left hand. A right hook stings the backpedaling Holobaugh, then another right connects before
an uppercut finally knocks Holobaugh senseless.
Holobaugh crashes to the canvas as referee Herb Dean rushes in to stop the fight, and Barcelos walks off with a highlight-reel knockout in his UFC debut.

The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Kurt Holobaugh via KO (Punches) R3 1:29
Jordan Leavitt - Fight History
SCHED vs Joanderson Brito
13
138 MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Jordan Leavitt

The host picks Jordan Leavitt, believing that Leavitt's grappling will be the key. He notes that on the feet, Brito wins 99 out of 100 times, but Leavitt can get takedowns and once on top, Brito will have a hard time getting back to his feet. He expects Leavitt to win, though he's not sure if it will be by finish or decision.

"I'm going to take Jordan Leavitt to get the takedowns."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

AJ mentions Joanderson Brito as an honorable mention, believing he is too physical for Jordan Leavitt and could potentially stop him, maybe by submission in later stages. He notes Brito's slick jiu-jitsu and sees a potential round three submission.

Joanderson Brito by submission +425 (explicitly mentioned), round 3 submission +1800 (mentioned), round 2 submission +1300 (mentioned)
"I do think Joe Anderson Breto is too physical for Jordan Levit and potentially stops him, maybe even a later stage sub."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

AJ picks Brito to win by submission, citing Brito's superior striking power, Muay Thai, and dangerous jiu-jitsu (ninja choke). He believes Leavitt's wrestling will be neutralized and that Brito will catch a neck as Leavitt leaves it exposed. AJ expects Brito to finish inside the distance, possibly in the later rounds.

Brito by submission; under 2.5 rounds plus 125; Brito inside distance
"I think Breto eventually gets him out of there. I'm going to say Breto sub eventually gets the neck of Jordan Levit."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

Angelo picks Joanderson Brito, calling himself a Jordan Leavitt hater. He argues that Brito is dangerous both on the feet and on the ground, while Leavitt's striking is subpar and his wrestling isn't good enough to get the fight to the ground consistently. He dismisses Leavitt's recent win over Yadier Delval as beating a 'scam artist'.

"Joe Anderson Breitu is one of the most dangerous guys in this weight class both on the feet and on the ground."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

Big Brady picks Joanderson Brito to win by submission in the second round. He acknowledges Leavitt's path with wrestling but notes Brito's dangerous front chokes and power on the feet. He thinks Brito's cardio is good and that Leavitt's cardio is suspect, leading to Brito catching Leavitt with a submission or big shot.

by submission, second round
"I'm leing Breuto. I'm going to take Breedto here by submission. And I'll say it comes in the second round."
BU
Bum MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Jordan Leavitt

Jordan Leavitt is the underdog but has a smart game plan: take Joanderson Brito down and do pitter-patter shots. Brito's grind game has been exposed, and Leavitt can win by decision if he avoids boxing in the pocket. Leavitt's recent win over Jair Delval was dominant.

decision win; underdog pick
"I'm gonna choose Levit probably as the underdog and I'm gonna choose him by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

Cody picks Brito, citing his power and aggression. He notes Leavitt's wrestling is not as effective as it appears, and Brito's physicality and scrambling should prevail. He expects Brito to land bigger shots and win.

"I'm going with Joann Burrito. Just I came to fight and you came to gain the scorecards."
FI
Fight Night Picks Expert Confident picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jordan Leavitt

Jordan Leavitt is picked as an underdog because his pressure grappling and strength should overwhelm Joanderson Brito, who has struggled with wrestling in recent fights. Brito's gas tank is questionable, and Leavitt's relentless takedowns and top control are a recipe for success. The host already has action on Leavitt at better odds and expects a dominant decision or submission.

Jordan Leavitt wins by dominant decision or submission; already bet at better odds; recommends playing if over +150
"I am picking Jordan Levit to win this fight. ... I definitely would support, you know, if you could get Levit over plus 150 or around plus 150, I would definitely support uh playing him there."
GR
Greedo Plays MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

Brito has power and should be able to defend takedowns from Leavitt. Leavitt struggles when taken down or controlled. Brito should eventually break Leavitt and get a late second-round TKO.

second round TKO
"I'm gonna go late second round TKO for Joe Anderson Brethrough."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

Lucrative James picks Joanderson Brito, believing Jordan Leavitt's win over Yaddel Val was more due to Val underperforming than Leavitt's elite skill. He notes Brito's athleticism, cardio, and danger on the feet, and expects Brito to avoid being dominated on the ground. He predicts a knockout win for Brito.

Joanderson Brito via knockout
"I have to pick Breurto in this one. ... My official prediction will be Joanna Srio via knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Jordan Leavitt

Leavitt's persistent grappling and body-lock game should be difficult for Brito, who has poor takedown defense and tends to slow down. Leavitt's strength at featherweight and ability to hold on to takedowns should edge out a decision. This is an odds-based pick, as Brito's finishing ability diminishes in deeper water.

Leavitt by decision
"I'll lean with Levit's annoying but persistent grappling game to edge out a decision here against Joe Anderson Breitu."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jordan Leavitt

Paul picks Leavitt by decision, noting Leavitt's grappling could neutralize Brito. He is not confident and does not plan to bet it, but sees Leavitt's path to a grinding decision win.

Leavitt by decision at +379
"Jordan Levit by decision... is like best price I see is plus 379."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Feb 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jordan Leavitt 0 17 of 45 37% 45 of 86 4 of 8 50% 0 0 7:57
Yadier Del Valle 0 13 of 42 30% 76 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jordan Leavitt 0 7 of 14 50% 20 of 33 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:04
Yadier Del Valle 0 3 of 7 42% 32 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jordan Leavitt 0 7 of 19 36% 15 of 33 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:02
Yadier Del Valle 0 5 of 17 29% 10 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
3 Jordan Leavitt 0 3 of 12 25% 10 of 20 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:51
Yadier Del Valle 0 5 of 18 27% 34 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jordan Leavitt 17 of 45 37% 7 of 18 3 of 19 7 of 8 12 of 36 0 of 0 5 of 9
Yadier Del Valle 13 of 42 30% 4 of 26 8 of 8 1 of 8 7 of 36 1 of 1 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jordan Leavitt 7 of 14 50% 4 of 8 2 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 7 0 of 0 3 of 7
Yadier Del Valle 3 of 7 42% 0 of 4 2 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jordan Leavitt 7 of 19 36% 2 of 5 1 of 10 4 of 4 6 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Yadier Del Valle 5 of 17 29% 4 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 4 4 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Jordan Leavitt 3 of 12 25% 1 of 5 0 of 4 2 of 3 2 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
Yadier Del Valle 5 of 18 27% 0 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 3 1 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jordan Leavitt vs. Yadier Del Valle

Round 1
Kerry Hatley is the referee. Del Valle leaps in with a front kick, and Leavitt catches it, shoves his foe into the fence and drags him to the mat. Del Valle scoots to a seated position against the cage. He posts and gets to his feet, and Leavitt maintains his body lock. However, a knee from Leavitt lands below the belt and the bout is paused so Del Valle can recover. Del Valle takes about 30 seconds and he’s good to go. Leavitt with a series of front kicks, then an inside leg kick. Del Valle moves in with a heavy combination, but that allows Leavitt to secure the clinch. Moments later, he takes “The Cuban Problem” down. Leavitt passes to side control, and the Houston crowd is booing already. Del Valle stands, but Leavitt trips him down immediately. Del Valle has full guard and Leavitt responds with a mini slam. Another short slam for Leavitt, as he tries to open up his foe’s guard. Leavitt hovers over Del Valle and drops a few punches before diving back into guard. A heavy elbow lands for Leavitt from above. Del Valle prevents Leavitt from passing guard, but “The Monkey King” peppers him with a few shots. Leavitt drops back for a leg lock in the waning seconds, but nothing comes of it.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Leavitt
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Leavitt
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Leavitt

Round 2
Leavitt lands a pair of leg kicks. Leavitt extends both arms in an awkward fighting stance. Del Valle counters a kick and sprawls on a takedown. Leavitt kicks the body twice and then fires off a series of push kicks. Del Valle rips the body with a right. Leavitt changes levels, but Del Valle sprawls. However, the Houston-based Cuban gambles for a guillotine and ends up surrendering top position instead. Now Leavitt goes to work in half guard and the boo birds are out again. Leavitt postures up and lands a short elbow. Del Valle is doing well to neutralize much of Leavitt’s offense with his guard. Leavitt passes to half guard again. Del Valle scoots to a seated position and Leavitt drives a shoulder into his chin. Leavitt shoves Del Valle to his back as he continues to impose his will. Leavitt periodically creates openings for ground-and-pound while continuing to control position. With about 15 seconds left, Del Valle lands an illegal upkick while Leavitt is still on his knees. They resume in the same position, with Dal Valle on his back. Leavitt again finishes the round by dropping back for a leg lock.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Leavitt
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Leavitt
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Leavitt

Round 3
Del Valle likely needs a finish. Leavitt goes back to work, controlling the range with a variety of kicks. Del Valle is still struggling to connect with his punches. Leavitt circles away then kicks his foe’s legs. Hatley calls for action about 90 seconds in. Del Valle stalks Leavitt and then throws his arms out in frustration. Leavitt follows a right with a takedown. He eats a knee from Del Valle but pulls the Cuban into his guard. Now it’s Del Valle in half guard. Leavitt is hanging on, hoping to force a standup. Del Valle lands a few short strikes to the body. Leavitt continues to cling to Del Valle, who nearly achieves full mount against the fence. Leavitt is content to try and neutralize Del Valle, as he realizes he is likely up on the scorecards. Del Valle stands and lands a few shots, before Leavitt reverses position and puts his opponent on his back with less than a mintue remaining. Leavitt gathers the leg and throws some hammerfists to Del Valle’s rear. Leavitt ends with a heavy elbow from side control.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Del Valle (29-28 Leavitt)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Leavitt (30-27 Leavitt)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Leavitt (30-27 Leavitt)

The Official Result
Jordan Leavitt def. Yadier Del Valle via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Yadier Del Valle

Angelo picks Yadier Del Valle, noting his solid grappling and striking, while criticizing Jordan Leavitt as a one-dimensional jiu-jitsu nerd with poor takedowns. He dismisses Del Valle's last fight as illegitimate and focuses on his prior work. He believes Del Valle's strength and grappling will prevail.

"Yadiy is going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (13 days before fight)
Yadier Del Valle

Big Brady picks Yadier Del Valle to defeat Jordan Leavitt, citing Del Valle's superior skills everywhere and Leavitt's poor takedown defense. He notes Leavitt has been submitted by better grapplers like Chase Hooper and Paddy Pimblett. He believes Del Valle will take Leavitt down and finish him, predicting a first-round submission. He mentions the controversy around Del Valle's last fight but says it doesn't change his opinion of Del Valle's talent.

Yadier Del Valle by first-round submission
"I think Dalvi is is more than deserving of being this big of a favorite. ... I'm going to go Yadier Dal Via to win this fight. I'll say first-round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Yadier Del Valle

Cody thinks Del Valle is a legitimate prospect with power and grappling. He notes Leavitt is a one-round fighter who gets outmuscled. He expects Del Valle to win by submission or decision.

"Delv Val for me worst case scenario they buried it on the undercard so I can rebuild."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Yadier Del Valle

Connor picks Del Valle, agreeing that Leavitt is a 'meme fighter' who gets trick submissions on non-grapplers but loses to actual grapplers. Del Valle is a potent athlete with a coherent game. Connor notes that Leavitt sacrifices position for wacky moves and will lose scrambles to a better athlete.

"I think it's mostly a positional thing. Like he's he just goes for wacky moves completely sacrificing position and that shit just doesn't fly against actual grapplers"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Yadier Del Valle

James picks Yadier Del Valle to win by submission, citing his superior grappling and toughness. He notes that Leavitt is one-dimensional and will likely get reversed and submitted after an initial takedown. James believes Del Valle's cardio and jiu-jitsu will be too much for Leavitt.

"I've got Yad Delv to win this fight inside the distance. Submission or TKO? I'll go with a submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Yadier Del Valle

Del Valle is better everywhere except maybe pure jiu-jitsu, but fights start on the feet where he has a huge advantage. He is strong, pressures forward, and has good wrestling to defend takedowns. Leavitt will try to create chaos to get to the ground, but Del Valle's strength and striking should overwhelm him. Expect a TKO finish inside the distance.

"I'm going to go Yadier Delval inside the distance. more than likely the finish coming by TKO."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Yadier Del Valle

Paul agrees, calling Del Valle a top prospect. He thinks Leavitt's physicality and cardio are lacking. He expects Del Valle to win by submission or dominant decision.

"Delval is now fighting Jordan Levit. I agree with him at being now the big favorite himself."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Yadier Del Valle

The MMA Guru picks Yadier Del Valle, noting his physical strength, athleticism, and powerful striking. He believes Del Valle can stuff takedowns and deal with Leavitt's sticky grappling style. He also mentions that Leavitt has been out-scrambled and submitted by jiu-jitsu guys before, and predicts a first round TKO or submission for Del Valle.

first round TKO, submission
"I'm going to say that Yair Rodriguez del Valle destroys him here. I'm going to say that Yair Rodriguez del Valle gets a first round TKO finish over Jordan Leavitt."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Yadier Del Valle

Zane picks Del Valle, noting that Leavitt is a terrible striker and not athletic. Del Valle is a strong positional grappler and a solid slugger who pressures and isn't afraid of the pocket. Zane acknowledges Del Valle's UFC wins are against low-level opponents, but he still looks technically coherent and athletic.

"I'm still gonna pick del val because he seems like he has a lot of fundamental stuff. He does well... he's confident and he pressures and he isn't afraid of the pocket"
Submission R1 1:39 · UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · May 31, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kurt Holobaugh 0 0 of 1 0% 7 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jordan Leavitt 0 1 of 1 100% 2 of 3 3 of 4 75% 1 0 1:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kurt Holobaugh 0 0 of 1 0% 7 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jordan Leavitt 0 1 of 1 100% 2 of 3 3 of 4 75% 1 0 1:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kurt Holobaugh 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jordan Leavitt 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kurt Holobaugh 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jordan Leavitt 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kurt Holobaugh vs. Jordan Leavitt
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Leavitt (-192), Holobaugh (+160)

Round 1
Sticking to the lightweight division, two men who have alternated wins and losses in their last four could use the W to reverse their fortunes a bit. Holobaugh (21-9, 1 NC; 2-6 UFC) may need this one to stick around in his second stint with the promotion, while “The Monkey King” Leavitt (11-3, 4-3 UFC) could have a little wiggle room should he not prevail. With Dana White’s Contender Series right around the corner, who knows how many defeated competitors will be off the roster come Monday. Referee Mike Beltran will take charge of the cage for as long as this one lasts, and it commences with a swift glove touch. Leavitt springs from side to side as Holobaugh advances towards him, and he pushes out a front kick to set up a takedown. Within seconds, “The Monkey King” wrangles Holobaugh to the mat, where he climbs from side control to half guard to exert heavy top pressure. Holobaugh scoots his way to the fence and gets to a knee, and Leavitt wrenches him back down to the mat and takes his back in a hurry. Holobaugh tries to scramble, and Leavitt slams him down on his face. Holobaugh looks to turn the corner by going after a single on Leavitt, but
Leavitt counters with a guillotine choke and transitions it to an anaconda choke and wraps it up tight. Holobaugh relaxes, possibly too much, and this allows Leavitt to turn him to his back and grip the choke all the way. Leavitt wraps his left leg up and around Holobaugh’s arm to prevent him from defending the submission, and Holobaugh’s efforts are quickly in vain as he goes out cold.
Beltran sees this and intervenes, and Holobaugh wakes up and is upset with Beltran until he learns that he got choked out. This was quick work for the returning Leavitt, who gets his hand raised for the first time in over two years.

The Official Result
Jordan Leavitt def. Kurt Holobaugh R1 1:39 via Technical Submission (Anaconda Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 18, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

Angelo picks Kurt Holobaugh, calling Jordan Leavitt a one-dimensional jiu-jitsu nerd with poor striking and wrestling setups. He believes Holobaugh's forward pressure, power, and better all-around skills will prevail, though he notes Holobaugh's age (38) and subpar takedown defense as concerns. He placed a half-unit bet on Holobaugh at plus 140.

Bet 0.5 units on Kurt Holobaugh at +140.
"Kurt Hall is going to be the pick. I think we as a sport need to evolve past these super one-dimensional."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Jordan Leavitt

Big Brady picks Jordan Leavitt due to Kurt Holobaugh's terrible takedown defense, which he describes as a huge gaping hole. He notes that Holobaugh was easily taken down by lesser wrestlers like Hernandez and Trey Ogden. Leavitt is a good grappler with improving striking, and Brady expects him to take Holobaugh down and win a decision.

by decision
"I like Kurt Hollow. I want to I want to pick him, but I can't pick him. And the reason being is Kurt Hollow has a huge gaping hole in his game. And it's huge. It's gaping. It's it's one …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jordan Leavitt

Matt picks Jordan Leavitt to win by decision. He notes that Holobaugh has poor takedown defense and is too accepting of being on his back, which plays into Leavitt's strength as a top-position grappler. Leavitt is not great on the feet but should be able to grind out a decision. Matt likes the over 2.5 rounds and Leavitt by decision prop.

fight goes to decision -135, Leavitt by decision +130, Holobaugh by decision +500, Holobaugh by KO +600
"I expect this just to be a grind for us from Leave it, maintaining that top position, grinding this fight out and winning it on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 28, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

The MMA Guru picks Kurt Holobaugh to finish Jordan Leavitt by TKO in the first or second round. He believes Holobaugh's striking and timing will be too much for Leavitt, and that Leavitt won't get an early submission. He notes Holobaugh's ability to get back up from takedowns and work in the clinch, and that the Apex environment benefits Holobaugh.

TKO in round 1 or 2
"I think Curt Hollibar is going to beat Jordan Levit... I'm going to take Curt Hollibar to finish this fight by TKO in the first or second round."
LOSS vs Chase Hooper
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:58 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Nov 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chase Hooper 0 1 of 3 33% 13 of 18 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:57
Jordan Leavitt 0 3 of 4 75% 5 of 10 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chase Hooper 0 1 of 3 33% 13 of 18 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:57
Jordan Leavitt 0 3 of 4 75% 5 of 10 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chase Hooper 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jordan Leavitt 3 of 4 75% 2 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chase Hooper 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jordan Leavitt 3 of 4 75% 2 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Chase Hooper vs. Jordan Leavitt
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hooper (-230), Leavitt (+190)

Round 1
Styles make fights, and these two lightweights appear to have the same one. These two grapplers may treat fans with fun exchanges, or they could nullify the other and result in a kickboxing match. Hooper (12-3-1, 4-3 UFC) and Leavitt (11-2, 4-2 UFC) are ready to go wherever is needed over the next three rounds, as is referee Mike Beltran. Two of the more convivial fighters on the roster share a light-hearted clap of hands, and then prepare to hurt each other. Hooper rushes out hoping to strike, and Leavitt hunts for a takedown. Hooper turns him over and fights off a single attempt from Leavitt, and the two spin one another around in the clinch. A scramble leads to the two hitting the mat, and Leavitt considers a guillotine and then a triangle choke into an omoplata. Leavitt uses these attempts to sweep his opponent, and he maintains a can opener only to fall into an armbar setup. Hooper turns over and leans to his back to try to lock the submission down, and Leavitt turns and stands up to stack Hooper up and break up the submission. Hooper chains a leglock into an armbar, and Leavitt smashes him in the face with big right hand that stuns Hooper. “The Dream” attempts a leglock, and Leavitt drops down to do the same, and the 50/50 position persists until Hooper drills Leavitt in the face.
Hooper turns over, and Leavitt sits up and is a bit too slow to spin around. Hooper takes his back during the scramble, and he fastens the body triangle around the waist and locks down a rear-naked choke. The forearm slides beneath the chin, and Hooper starts celebrating the submission before he even gets a tap. Leavitt ultimately does surrender instead of going out
, and Hooper lets go and stands to release a guttural celebratory shriek.

The Official Result
Chase Hooper def. Jordan Leavitt R1 2:58 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jordan Leavitt

Angelo picks Jordan Leavitt, expecting him to be more physical and have slightly better wrestling. He notes both are similar grapplers with poor striking, but thinks Leavitt's power in his hands and ability to get takedowns will be the difference. He may bet if Leavitt becomes a bigger dog.

May bet if line moves and Leavitt becomes a bigger dog
"I'm still going to pick Jordan leave it in this fight I think he can be more physical I think he's going to have the slightly better wrestling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Chase Hooper

Big Brady likes Hooper, noting he's putting it together with incredible pace and cardio, as seen in his wins over Felipe Colares and Nick Fiore. He thinks Leavitt has solid wrestling and striking but slows down, as in the Claudio Puelles fight. He predicts Hooper will push a pace Leavitt can't keep up with and finish him late in the third round by TKO.

"I think Chase super can can set a pace that L not going be able to keep up with and I think Hooper gets Lev out of there late in that third round so give me Chase Hooper to win …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Cody picks Chase Hooper, noting his high volume striking and improved grappling. He mentions Hooper's durability and ability to win by submission or decision. Cody sees Leavitt as one-dimensional with low output and believes Hooper's size and skill advantage will prevail.

"I think Chase wins on volume Chase could potentially you know sub them have the better grappling"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Chase Hooper

Hooper has improved his pressure fighting and can get the fight to the ground where he has a slick submission game. Leavitt has a weird submission game but questionable cardio and striking. Hooper can land better damage and control on top, winning by decision. However, both fighters are flaky, so confidence is low.

"I'm going to lean Chase superer here still though I think he can get off on better damage I think he can get some control time from that top position and I think he can make it look good enough …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Paul is high on Chase Hooper, citing his youth, size advantage at lightweight, and improved wrestling. He notes Hooper's legitimate jiu-jitsu and cardio, and believes Leavitt is one-dimensional with no standout skills. Paul expects Hooper to drown Leavitt with pressure and volume.

"I think Chase Hooper gets the win"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jordan Leavitt

The MMA Guru picks Jordan Leavitt over Chase Hooper, believing Leavitt is further along in his MMA career. He notes Leavitt's improved striking since 2021 and his competitive grappling with Claudio Puelles, which he thinks Leavitt won. He believes Leavitt's grappling is good enough to stop Hooper and that Hooper's win over Nick Fiore is not impressive.

"I just think Jordan Leavitt is further along in his mixed martial arts career than Chase Hooper... I'm going to go Jordan Leavitt wins this fight."
TKO (knees and punches) R1 2:27 · UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Feb 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jordan Leavitt 1 17 of 35 48% 18 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:46
Victor Martinez 0 7 of 28 25% 9 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jordan Leavitt 1 17 of 35 48% 18 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:46
Victor Martinez 0 7 of 28 25% 9 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jordan Leavitt 17 of 35 48% 8 of 21 6 of 10 3 of 4 8 of 22 5 of 7 4 of 6
Victor Martinez 7 of 28 25% 4 of 20 0 of 1 3 of 7 7 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jordan Leavitt 17 of 35 48% 8 of 21 6 of 10 3 of 4 8 of 22 5 of 7 4 of 6
Victor Martinez 7 of 28 25% 4 of 20 0 of 1 3 of 7 7 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jordan Leavitt vs. Victor Martinez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Martinez (-115), Leavitt (-105)

Round 1
Styles make fights, and this one is about as different as they could get. At lightweight, submission aficionado Leavitt (10-2, 3-2 UFC) comes to blows with UFC neophyte Martinez (13-4, 0-0 UFC). In their respective careers, “The Monkey King” has only landed one knockout in the form of a slam, while Martinez has never before forced an opponent to tap. Skills will be tested right after referee Jason Herzog checks the two lightweights in, and they introduce themselves to one another with a clap of hands. Leavitt strides forward, closing distance with multiple front kicks. Martinez looks for a left-hand counter, but Leavitt is out of harm’s way from most of the strikes that come back. Leavitt continues to work the sternum with teep kicks, and he bats away a Martinez right hand to dive forward for a single. Martinez sprawls against the fencing to keep his balance, and he smacks Leavitt upside the head with an elbow to make him think twice. Leavitt stays glued to his man despite no takedown in sight, until Martinez follows his coach’s instructions and gets off the fence and gets some space. They trade front kicks at range, and Martinez chops at the lead leg once before Levitt advances throwing punches. Leavitt counters a Martinez left hook with a kick that splits the uprights and forces a pause in the action. Martinez takes about 20 seconds before getting back to it, and Leavitt is not discouraged to kick. Leavitt keeps working the midsection with front kicks before pushing forward into the clinch to smash his fading foe with knees up the middle.
Blasting the body and crashing into the jaw, Leavitt’s knees do noticeable damage one after the other until Martinez’ knees crumble. Herzog is watching on but not stepping in, so “The Monkey King” makes sure to finish the job with a swarm of punches until Herzog has seen enough.
Leavitt strides off and releases an outpouring of emotions to get his first stoppage win due to strikes in his career. In his post-fight interview, Leavitt comically remarks, “I’ve never rocked anyone before!”

The Official Result
Jordan Leavitt def. Victor Martinez R1 2:33 via TKO (Knees and Punches)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jordan Leavitt

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Leavitt. He emphasizes that Leavitt is a strategic thinker who keeps opponents at range and clings to them when they get close. He notes that Martinez's striking game would fit a better athlete, but he is not that athlete. He also mentions that Leavitt's style is specifically crafted to take advantage of regional-level opponents like Martinez.

"This looks like an eminently winnable fight for leave it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jordan Leavitt

Zane picks Leavitt, describing him as a dysfunctional but frustrating fighter who knows how to win rounds with awkward distance management, kicks, and opportunistic grappling. He notes that Martinez has a slick boxing game but is not a good athlete, and that Leavitt's style will be very difficult for Martinez to handle. He compares Leavitt to Elias Theodorou and Ryan Hall in terms of being awkward and frustrating.

"I really doubt that Victor Martinez has the tools to handle that."
LOSS vs Paddy Pimblett
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:46 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Jul 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paddy Pimblett 0 17 of 39 43% 30 of 53 1 of 1 100% 4 0 1:44
Jordan Leavitt 0 16 of 22 72% 41 of 48 3 of 9 33% 0 0 4:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paddy Pimblett 0 10 of 21 47% 18 of 29 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:01
Jordan Leavitt 0 7 of 8 87% 26 of 27 3 of 8 37% 0 0 3:32
2 Paddy Pimblett 0 7 of 18 38% 12 of 24 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:43
Jordan Leavitt 0 9 of 14 64% 15 of 21 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paddy Pimblett 17 of 39 43% 14 of 34 2 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 22 8 of 9 5 of 8
Jordan Leavitt 16 of 22 72% 5 of 8 9 of 12 2 of 2 9 of 12 7 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paddy Pimblett 10 of 21 47% 9 of 19 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 8 5 of 6 4 of 7
Jordan Leavitt 7 of 8 87% 3 of 4 4 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Paddy Pimblett 7 of 18 38% 5 of 15 1 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 14 3 of 3 1 of 1
Jordan Leavitt 9 of 14 64% 2 of 4 5 of 8 2 of 2 7 of 10 2 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jordan Leavitt vs. Paddy Pimblett
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pimblett (-245), Leavitt (+205)

Round 1
Dan Movahedi will oversee what is one of the most anticipated bouts of the evening. Pimblett, as expected, gets a huge pop from the crowd. Pimblett takes the center of the cage and pressures with punches. Leavitt responds with a single leg. “The Monkey King” briefly gets his foe down and maintains the clinch when Pimblett stands. Pimblett defends with a guillotine, but Leavitt lifts him up and executes a big slam. “The Baddy” maintains his hold on the choke and he has Leavitt trapped in his full guard. Leavitt is able to pop his head free and Pimblett stands up. Leavitt presses his foe into the fence and Pimblett jumps guard for a guillotine. Leavitt avoids the submission and maintains a body lock as the Cage Warriors vet stands. Leavitt continues to grind away in the clinch, making Pimblett work to defend takedowns against the fence. Leavitt clings to a single leg before Pimblett lands a couple hard elbows to the side of the head. Pimblett finally gets some space at about 45 seconds. Pimblett uses the opportunity to land a jumping kick before threatening with a guillotine. Pimblett takes the back in the waning seconds and drops a few punches from above before the horn. 10-9 Leavitt.

Round 2
Pimblett gets to work right away but can’t find the range on his initial combination. Leavitt answers with a front kick. Pimblett again blitzes forward with punches, but Leavitt is doing well to move away thus far. A right hand lands for Leavitt before he secures a single leg and shoves his foe into the fence. Pimblett defends with his back to the fence and lands an elbow. Leavitt drops low but Pimblett frames a choke and then lands a knee to the had that seems to hurt Leavitt, who falls to his knees. The maneuver allows Pimblett to take his foe’s back, and he’s got Leavitt’s right arm trapped in the body triangle.
With Leavitt having just one arm free to defend, Pimblett is able to lock in a tight rear-naked choke. Leavitt can only resist for a few seconds before he’s forced to tap.
Like Molly McCann before him, Pimblett leaps from the Octagon to celebrate his victory in the arena with the fans.

The Official Result
Paddy Pimblett def. Jordan Leavitt via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) R2 2:46
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Angelo picks Paddy Pimblett, noting he is getting favorable matchups and will likely win a fun decision. He highlights Paddy's striking volume and smooth grappling, but acknowledges he is hittable and has zero percent takedown defense (though small sample size). He suggests a moneyline bet or a prop on Jordan Leavitt inside distance decision no action if Leavitt is tough enough to not get finished.

Jordan Leavitt inside distance decision no action (considering)
"i see patty winning what will probably be a fun decision minus 250 odds are pretty solid and paddy might be worth a money line bet here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Big Brady picks Paddy Pimblett to win by second-round knockout. He notes Pimblett has improved significantly, especially in striking and power. Leavitt is one-dimensional and slows down as the fight goes on. Pimblett should have advantages on the feet and in cardio, and he expects a knockout in the second or third round.

Pimblett by KO in round 2
"give me uh patty pamela to win paddy pamela to win uh second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Cody confidently picks Paddy Pimblett, stating he can win wherever the fight goes. He notes Pimblett has superior striking, better boxing, good chin, and solid submission defense. Cody points out that Leavitt's wrestling is not good enough to take Pimblett down, and his striking lacks power. He believes Pimblett can take Leavitt down if he wants and ground and pound him. Cody acknowledges the line is inflated but thinks Pimblett's skills are clearly better.

"i would have to leads towards paddy pimplet i mean he's just a little more refined"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Daniel Levi confidently picks Paddy Pimblett, viewing this as another showcase fight. He believes Pimblett can keep the fight standing and overwhelm Leavitt, who he sees as one-dimensional with poor stand-up. Levi notes that Leavitt's best chance is early success, but if that doesn't happen, he expects Leavitt to gas out. He also mentions the crowd factor and Leavitt's questionable mentality, saying he doesn't see a grown man that twerks beating Pimblett.

"i'm going paddy pimlet to come out here and teach jordan levitt a lesson"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Leavitt doesn't have the wrestling, striking, or cardio to beat Pimblett. Paddy will show dominance with big strikes and finish him. This is a step down in competition for Pimblett. No doubt about it.

"Patty wins this fight no doubt about it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jordan Leavitt

Paul picks Jordan Leavitt by decision at +800, calling it an outlier in the market. He admits he is a Paddy Pimblett hater and thinks Leavitt might be able to get top position and hold on. Paul acknowledges the line is wide and that Leavitt would need clear rounds to win a decision, especially in the UK. He says he doesn't have to lose much money to potentially win.

Leavitt by decision +800 (now +650)
"i took levitt by decision plus 800 the number's gone on that now it's plus 650. um yeah the it was an outlier in the market"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

The MMA Guru confidently picks Paddy Pimblett to win by first-round KO. He believes Pimblett's size, strength, and explosivity will be too much for Leavitt. Leavitt's stand-up is poor, and Pimblett will stuff takedowns and land big shots. He predicts a flying knee or uppercut combo leading to a vicious KO.

first round KO
"i'm gonna be going with paddy pimlet here i reckon pimlet's gonna win this one by ko in the first round"
WIN vs Trey Ogden
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. Muhammad 2 · Apr 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jordan Leavitt 0 69 of 105 65% 124 of 170 0 of 3 0% 0 0 5:17
Trey Ogden 0 41 of 90 45% 130 of 182 1 of 4 25% 2 1 2:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jordan Leavitt 0 19 of 25 76% 32 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:20
Trey Ogden 0 17 of 30 56% 57 of 71 0 of 0 --- 2 1 0:10
2 Jordan Leavitt 0 46 of 68 67% 52 of 74 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Trey Ogden 0 16 of 46 34% 17 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
3 Jordan Leavitt 0 4 of 12 33% 40 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:57
Trey Ogden 0 8 of 14 57% 56 of 64 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jordan Leavitt 69 of 105 65% 6 of 21 11 of 25 52 of 59 69 of 102 0 of 2 0 of 1
Trey Ogden 41 of 90 45% 10 of 46 23 of 29 8 of 15 38 of 87 1 of 1 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jordan Leavitt 19 of 25 76% 0 of 1 6 of 10 13 of 14 19 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 1
Trey Ogden 17 of 30 56% 2 of 10 8 of 10 7 of 10 17 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jordan Leavitt 46 of 68 67% 3 of 11 5 of 14 38 of 43 46 of 66 0 of 2 0 of 0
Trey Ogden 16 of 46 34% 3 of 26 12 of 16 1 of 4 16 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jordan Leavitt 4 of 12 33% 3 of 9 0 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Trey Ogden 8 of 14 57% 5 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 1 5 of 11 1 of 1 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jordan Leavitt vs. Trey Ogden

Round 1
It’s submission grappler vs. submission grappler in this lightweight contest up next, as Leavitt (9-1, 2-1 UFC) and newcomer Ogden (15-4, 0-0 UFC) combine for exactly one finish by TKO or KO while totaling 17 victories by tapout. The Octagon overseer for this one that will get interesting when it hits the ground is referee Chris Tognoni, and a sporting glove touch occurs before his eyes. Leavitt switches his stance several times, coming out awkward but not throwing anything of note. They reach at one another with long kicks, with Leavitt stretching out far for a push kick to the breadbasket. Ogden responds with a spinning back kick, and Leavitt connects with a few low kicks when he plants back down. Leavitt continues to jab with his foot, and Ogden catches him with a left hook as he lets one loose for too long. The single strikes continue to get lobbed at one another without bad intentions on them, and Leavitt goes inside with one to the knee. Ogden walks his foe down and lands a pair of punches to the body, and he nails Leavitt with a kick to the body as Leavitt’s back is against the wall. Ogden makes a dire mistake throwing a high kick, slipping to the ground, and Leavitt pounces immediately to put Ogden flat on his back. Ogden looks to keep an active guard off his back, trying to push his heels off Leavitt’s hips, but Leavitt is able to sneakily remain on top and shuck that off every time. “The Monkey King” pushes forward in the guard, stacking Ogden up and disallowing him from setting anything up. From on top, Leavitt does not do much of note offensively, with an occasional strike coming but far more of a focus on top control. Ogden snags hold of an arm-in guillotine choke, and Leavitt suddenly has to defend in a dangerous position. Ogden locks it up and rolls to mount, and Leavitt is firmly in the danger zone. Leavitt scrambles, fighting off the legs to try to loosen the grip, and he rolls Ogden back over. “Samurai Ghost” keeps the choke as tight as it can be, and Leavitt does not seem remotely concerned, riding out the round and letting the horn sound to force a release in the choke.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden

Round 2
The second round begins with both men throwing kicks, and they push towards one another. As Ogden shoots in low, he ends up getting lifted up and the crown of his head cracks straight into Leavitt’s jaw. Tognoni calls the accidental headbutt foul and lets Leavitt recover, and Leavitt appears compromised and in pain, rubbing his chin from the clash of heads. Leavitt signifies he is good to go, and he begins up with his distance-keeping front kick assault. They may be slow and sporadic, but they are effective at keeping Ogden at bay. When Ogden kicks back at him, Leavitt checks the strikes, forcing Ogden to readjust his approach. Ogden rushes forward with a few punches to the body, and Leavitt holds his guard in more of a Philly shell than a standard hand guard position. “The Monkey King” ambles forward in pursuit of a takedown, only for his attempt to get stuffed with ease. Ogden backs his foe up towards the wall with his pressure, punching his way into a possible double-leg takedown try. Leavitt remains upright without much concern, but Ogden does manage to press him into the fencing. They separate, and Leavitt kicks at Ogden’s knee a few times with a stomping side kick. Ogden plods forward, keeping Leavitt backpedaling, but Leavitt does not stop spamming low kicks. Every time Ogden backs him up to the wall, Leavitt somehow manages to clear him out with a few kicks and crafty circling. The chipping leg kicks of Leavitt do enough to keep Ogden from unloading on him, but he cannot get much else offense going. Leavitt attempts another telegraphed takedown, and Ogden pushes him down and stands back up. Leavitt throws to punches, a low kick, and he spins awkwardly with a back fist. The spinning back fist does not connect, and Leavitt shakes his head as the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden

Round 3
As soon as the third round opens, Leavitt charges for a takedown. Ogden bowls him over, pushing “The Monkey King” to his back and claiming top position in a hurry. With a quick sweep, Leavitt manages to gain enough distance to push away and stand back up, and the two resume their striking battle. Ogden punches a few times, before pushing shoulder-first into a clinch. With sheer muscle, Ogden rips Leavitt down to the ground. Leavitt does not give this up lightly, but a concerted effort from Ogden allows him to wrench Leavitt down and then turn him to his knees. Leavitt still fights his way back up from his knees, and he fights out of a clinch and stings Ogden with a right hand. Another clean right hand from Leavitt leads to a weak takedown try from Ogden, and Ogden falls over to his back when Leavitt tackles him to the mat. Leavitt lowers himself into Ogden’s guard, and Ogden closes it around him to tie his foe up. Leavitt tries to soften Ogden up a little with short punches, but he abandons punches to grab hold of a can opener by gripping both hands behind the back of Ogden’s head. This does enough to open the guard for Leavitt, but little else comes from “The Monkey King” besides some scrambling to pass guard. Ogden effectively nullifies the attack of Leavitt while punching off his back and pushing off the hips, and the ground exchange is constantly busy from a control perspective. Leavitt stays on top until the final horn calls a stop to this odd fight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Leavitt (29-28 Ogden)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Leavitt (29-28 Ogden)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Leavitt (29-28 Ogden)

The Official Result
Jordan Leavitt def. Trey Ogden via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Trey Ogden

Angelo picks Trey Ogden, but is a little worried because it's Ogden's UFC debut and Jordan Leavitt's ground game is dangerous. He notes that Ogden is more well-rounded with solid takedowns and power, while Leavitt is a one-dimensional grappler with subpar striking and wrestling. He thinks Ogden's timing and blast doubles will be key.

"i do like trey to win here though and i'm gonna pick him but this being his ufc debut and jordan's ground game do have me a little bit worried"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Trey Ogden

Big Brady picks Trey Ogden to win by third-round submission. He notes Ogden is the better striker, wrestler, and has better cardio. He expects Ogden to take Leavitt down and eventually break him, getting a late finish. He acknowledges Leavitt's submission threat but notes Ogden is a BJJ black belt and that Leavitt slows down as fights go on.

win by submission, round 3
"i like ogden here i'm gonna take ogden to win actually by a third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Trey Ogden

Cody picks Ogden, citing his improved striking and wrestling. He thinks Ogden can neutralize Leavitt's grappling and win a decision. He notes Leavitt's limited skillset and Ogden's camp advantage.

"i can see it being ogden ogden by decision and that's kind of where my head's at"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Trey Ogden

Daniel Levi leans Trey Ogden contingent on him surviving the early scrambles. He notes Leavitt is a one-trick pony with good scrambling and submissions but fades if he doesn't get a quick finish. Ogden is more well-rounded, has finished a current UFC fighter (TJ Brown), and trains under James Krause. Levi sees it as 50/50 early but favors Ogden as the fight progresses.

Mentions Leavitt's early submission threat and Ogden's experience
"I'ma lean with ogden contingent on him getting past these first few scrambles."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Trey Ogden

Paul leans towards Ogden, noting his more complete game and better wrestling. He thinks Ogden can out-strike Leavitt and avoid submissions. He also bet under 2.5 rounds, expecting a finish.

under 2.5 rounds (-115, then +105)
"i'll lean towards trey ogden because i do think he's a little bit more of a complete fighter"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jordan Leavitt

The MMA Guru picks Jordan Leavitt by submission, noting that three of Trey Ogden's four losses are by submission. He believes Ogden's grappling-first style plays into Leavitt's strengths, and expects a first-round submission, possibly an arm triangle or rear-naked choke.

first round submission
"jordan levitt gets this one down by submission three of the four losses of trey ogden are by way of submission"
WIN vs Matt Sayles
Submission (inverted triangle choke) R2 2:05 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jordan Leavitt 0 9 of 20 45% 22 of 37 1 of 6 16% 3 0 2:48
Matt Sayles 0 13 of 34 38% 13 of 34 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jordan Leavitt 0 5 of 11 45% 18 of 28 1 of 5 20% 1 0 2:44
Matt Sayles 0 4 of 17 23% 4 of 17 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:38
2 Jordan Leavitt 0 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:04
Matt Sayles 0 9 of 17 52% 9 of 17 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jordan Leavitt 9 of 20 45% 4 of 12 1 of 4 4 of 4 7 of 18 1 of 1 1 of 1
Matt Sayles 13 of 34 38% 2 of 14 8 of 12 3 of 8 13 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jordan Leavitt 5 of 11 45% 2 of 5 0 of 3 3 of 3 4 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1
Matt Sayles 4 of 17 23% 0 of 6 2 of 6 2 of 5 4 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jordan Leavitt 4 of 9 44% 2 of 7 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
Matt Sayles 9 of 17 52% 2 of 8 6 of 6 1 of 3 9 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jordan Leavitt vs. Matt Sayles

Round 1
We’re here! The final UFC fight card of the year is upon us, and a lucky number of fights (13) will make it to the finish line. Fights from the heaviest weight class to the lightest on the roster will treat fans across UFC Fight Night 199. We begin in the lightweight division, when Leavitt (8-1, 1-1 UFC) and the returning Sayles (8-3, 1-2 UFC) aim for their second wins inside the Octagon in this fun grappler vs. striker battle. Referee Chris Tognoni will preside over the first match of the evening, and the 155ers touch gloves to start the night. They start hand-fighting early on to find their range, and Leavitt kicks at his foe a few times right at the knee. Sayles fakes a knee-tap, and Leavitt goes up high with a front kick that skims Sayles’ face and shakes him up a little. “Robo” gathers himself in time to stop a clinch attempt that could have turned into a takedown from Leavitt, and he cocks back his right hand but does not let it go. Leavitt keeps his distance, skirting around on the outside of the cage, and he gets off a few kicks. Sayles jumps forward with a clubbing right hand, and whether because it hurt him or because he was setting a trap, Leavitt falls to his knees to pursue a takedown. Sayles stands him back up, only to wind up in a clinch where Leavitt pursues an inside trip. Leavitt drops to his knees, and Sayles flirts with a standing guillotine choke and presses his opponent to the wire with it. Leavitt pops his head out, hits the trip he was searching for, and puts Sayles on his back. “The Monkey King” climbs into half guard when Sayles hits the mat, and he starts to soften Sayles up with a few hammerfists and elbows. For good measure, he drops down a knee to the body, and Sayles fights his way to the wall so he can walk up. When he attempts to scramble, Leavitt scales him into mount, but he gets bucked off when Sayles gets his neck up against the fence. Sayles turns, and Leavitt wraps his arms around his opponent’s neck to set up an anaconda choke. Sayles twists and turns, all while Leavitt has the neck tied up, and they continue to roll through positions. As Sayles fights off the grip, Leavitt chains through to tie up a guillotine choke, but Sayles frees himself and gets back up for a moment. The Syndicate MMA fighter circles around to take Sayles’ back, but Sayles pushes off and smacks Leavitt a few times with looping punches right before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Leavitt
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Leavitt
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Leavitt

Round 2
They touch gloves to start off the round again, and Sayles goes low right after with a punch to the body. Leavitt looks to kick him in the face in response, only for Sayles to duck out of the way and circle on the outside of the fence. Sayles paws out a few left hands and kicks the leg, and they start smiling as they land on one another. Leavitt tries to shoot in for a takedown in close range, but Sayles sprawls and gets back to his feet to throw hands at his opponent. Leavitt appears out of sorts when engaging in a striking battle, kicking instead of punching and flopping around a little. Sayles pushes them out of the way to lance him with an overhand right, and Leavitt grabs hold of him. Pulling guard, Leavitt hits the ground while tying up a guillotine choke, but it is not there.
As Sayles wrenches himself free, they both hit the mat, and Leavitt slaps on an inverted triangle choke while Sayles is on his knees. Leavitt keeps tightly squeezed as he cinches up his legs, and Sayles is suddenly in big trouble as he is stuck in an awkward position with Leavitt holding on to him from the side as well. With no way out, Sayles taps on Leavitt’s backside with his fingers.
In his post-fight interview, Leavitt claims it is a “Monkey King” specialty, as he pulled off a maneuver rarely seen inside the Octagon.

The Official Result
Jordan Leavitt def. Matt Sayles R2 2:05 via Submission (Inverted Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Matt Sayles

Angelo picks Matt Sayles because he is more well-rounded, with solid power, footwork, and 81% takedown defense. He notes that Jordan Leavitt is one-dimensional with subpar striking and wrestling, and that his only path to victory is on the ground. However, Angelo is hesitant because Leavitt is dangerous in that one aspect, and he considers a prop bet on Leavitt inside the distance with decision no action.

Jordan Leavitt inside the distance, decision no action prop bet (not yet placed)
"I'm going to take sales here but I might grab a jordan levitt inside the distance decision no action prop bet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jordan Leavitt

Big Brady picks Jordan Leavitt, citing Matt Sayles' long layoff, weight gain up to 250 lbs, and move up to lightweight as major concerns. He notes Leavitt's ground game is strong and expects him to get the fight to the mat and secure a submission. However, he admits he's not high on either fighter and plans to fade Leavitt in the future.

first round submission
"I'm gonna take levitt here the more active guy very good grappler um I'll be definitely looking to fade him in the future but I think this is a fight where I'm going to pick him here give me jordan …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jordan Leavitt

Cody leans Leavitt, thinking his grappling is far superior to Sayles's. He notes that Sayles has been off for two years, has poor grappling, and may struggle with weight cut. Cody thinks Leavitt can get the fight to the ground and submit Sayles, but he wants to see weigh-ins first.

"I'm going to take jordan love it for now you know what my thinking on the jordan levitt fight is"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Matt Sayles

Daniel Levi leans toward Matt Sayles despite concerns about his two-year layoff and weight ballooning. He believes Sayles has superior striking and firepower, and that Jordan Leavitt's grappling is his only path to victory. Levi notes that Leavitt's striking is terrible and he was exposed in his last fight. He thinks Sayles can survive early takedown attempts and piece Leavitt up on the feet, potentially getting a knockout. However, he is sketched out by the layoff and weight class change.

Sayles by KO/TKO; fight doesn't go to decision
"My lean is Matt Sayles but I am obviously sketched out the guy's been out for two years he ballooned up to 250 pounds."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jordan Leavitt

Jacob immediately put two units on Jordan Leavitt, believing he should be a 2-to-1 favorite. He cites Matt Sayles' two-year layoff due to ACL surgery and weight gain, and notes that Sayles throws many kicks which Leavitt can catch for takedowns. Jacob thinks Leavitt's open-mat takedowns and quickness will get the fight to the ground, where he has a submission advantage. He acknowledges Leavitt's last fight was embarrassing but expects him to get the job done.

2 units on moneyline at +200
"I immediately put two units on jordan levitt when i heard about what i think it was bon kiki in the uh in the chat so sales and his two years off was not improving"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)

The host does not make a clear moneyline pick, instead focusing on the under 2.5 rounds. He believes Matt Sayles could knock out Leavitt if he looks like his old self, or Leavitt could submit Sayles. He took a shot on the under 2.5 at -118, expecting violence either way.

under 2.5 rounds (-118), 1.2 units; Sayles KO (+350); Leavitt by sub (+180)
"I actually personally took a shot myself now two units at minus 118. uh sorry 1.2 units minus 118 on the under two and a half here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Matt Sayles

Paul leans Sayles, citing Leavitt's poor stand-up and one-dimensional grappling. He thinks Sayles's striking is much better and he can keep the fight standing. However, Paul is concerned about Sayles's weight cut and two-year layoff, so he wants to see weigh-ins before betting.

"I think sales is the play here 100 I don't think it's even questionable"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Jordan Leavitt

The MMA Guru picks Jordan Leavitt due to a big grappling advantage over Matt Sayles. He notes that Sayles was easily submitted by Bryce Mitchell with a twister in the first round and looked lost on the ground. Leavitt has good grappling and should be able to take Sayles down and finish him. He predicts a late first-round arm triangle submission.

first round arm triangle submission
"i'm going with jordan levitt here i think he's got a big grappling advantage over matt sales"
Expert Picks (4)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 18, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

Angelo picks Kurt Holobaugh, calling Jordan Leavitt a one-dimensional jiu-jitsu nerd with poor striking and wrestling setups. He believes Holobaugh's forward pressure, power, and better all-around skills will prevail, though he notes Holobaugh's age (38) and subpar takedown defense as concerns. He placed a half-unit bet on Holobaugh at plus 140.

Bet 0.5 units on Kurt Holobaugh at +140.
"Kurt Hall is going to be the pick. I think we as a sport need to evolve past these super one-dimensional."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Jordan Leavitt

Big Brady picks Jordan Leavitt due to Kurt Holobaugh's terrible takedown defense, which he describes as a huge gaping hole. He notes that Holobaugh was easily taken down by lesser wrestlers like Hernandez and Trey Ogden. Leavitt is a good grappler with improving striking, and Brady expects him to take Holobaugh down and win a decision.

by decision
"I like Kurt Hollow. I want to I want to pick him, but I can't pick him. And the reason being is Kurt Hollow has a huge gaping hole in his game. And it's huge. It's gaping. It's it's one of the biggest holes you'll ever see. And it's that …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jordan Leavitt

Matt picks Jordan Leavitt to win by decision. He notes that Holobaugh has poor takedown defense and is too accepting of being on his back, which plays into Leavitt's strength as a top-position grappler. Leavitt is not great on the feet but should be able to grind out a decision. Matt likes the over 2.5 rounds and Leavitt by decision prop.

fight goes to decision -135, Leavitt by decision +130, Holobaugh by decision +500, Holobaugh by KO +600
"I expect this just to be a grind for us from Leave it, maintaining that top position, grinding this fight out and winning it on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 28, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

The MMA Guru picks Kurt Holobaugh to finish Jordan Leavitt by TKO in the first or second round. He believes Holobaugh's striking and timing will be too much for Leavitt, and that Leavitt won't get an early submission. He notes Holobaugh's ability to get back up from takedowns and work in the clinch, and that the Apex environment benefits Holobaugh.

TKO in round 1 or 2
"I think Curt Hollibar is going to beat Jordan Levit... I'm going to take Curt Hollibar to finish this fight by TKO in the first or second round."