Career Averages - Ketlen Vieira
Career Averages - Macy Chiasson
Ketlen Vieira
Macy Chiasson
Ketlen Vieira - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 30 of 92 | 32% | 66 of 158 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:42 |
| Jacqueline Cavalcanti | 0 | 53 of 110 | 48% | 72 of 130 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 11 of 47 | 23% | 11 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jacqueline Cavalcanti | 0 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 24 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 38 of 72 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:42 |
| Jacqueline Cavalcanti | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 20 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 17 of 39 | 43% | 17 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jacqueline Cavalcanti | 0 | 28 of 61 | 45% | 28 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Vieira | 30 of 92 | 32% | 27 of 86 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 29 of 90 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Jacqueline Cavalcanti | 53 of 110 | 48% | 15 of 62 | 16 of 25 | 22 of 23 | 53 of 110 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketlen Vieira | 11 of 47 | 23% | 9 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jacqueline Cavalcanti | 24 of 46 | 52% | 6 of 23 | 4 of 8 | 14 of 15 | 24 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ketlen Vieira | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Jacqueline Cavalcanti | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ketlen Vieira | 17 of 39 | 43% | 17 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jacqueline Cavalcanti | 28 of 61 | 45% | 9 of 38 | 12 of 16 | 7 of 7 | 28 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jacqueline Cavalcanti, trusting her speed and footwork. He expects Cavalcanti to win the striking exchanges and that Vieira's takedowns won't matter to the judges. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds as a lock. He notes Vieira may have won her last fight but expects a similar decision loss here.
Big Brady leans toward Jacqueline Cavalcanti, believing she is the better striker with superior volume. He thinks she can stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing, winning by decision. He acknowledges Ketlen Vieira's path to victory via takedowns but doubts she will execute.
Cody picks Jacqueline Cavalcanti, citing her high striking volume (6.5 significant strikes per minute) and youth. He notes that Ketlen Vieira often gets out-struck but wins via cage control, but believes Cavalcanti's takedown defense has improved and she is physically strong enough to avoid being smothered. He expects Cavalcanti to out-land Vieira and win a 29-28 decision, though he acknowledges the risk of judges favoring control time.
Connor picks Cavalcanti, agreeing with Zane. He notes Vieira has no progression in her game and only changes aggression level per opponent. Cavalcanti is defensively minded, moves her feet well, and has a jab, making it hard for Vieira to charge in. He hopes Vieira doesn't drag Cavalcanti into the mud.
Cavalcanti is better everywhere: more technical striker, higher pace, better fight IQ, difficult to take down, great cardio. Vieira has low volume and bad fight IQ. Cavalcanti will outpoint Vieira and win a comfortable decision.
Lucrative James leans toward Jacqueline Cavalcanti, citing her superior striking and consistent volume. He believes Vieira's takedowns may not be enough to win two rounds, and Cavalcanti's composed striking will earn a decision. He notes the fight could be close and split.
The host picks Jacqueline Cavalcanti over Ketlen Vieira, believing this fight will launch Cavalcanti into title contention. He cites Cavalcanti's improved grappling defense and striking edge to pick apart Vieira and win on the scorecards.
The host thinks Cavalcanti is a slicker striker with a better gas tank, but he is hesitant to bet her at -155 due to Vieira's grappling threat and live dog status. He predicts Cavalcanti wins by decision, but would only bet if the line drops closer to -120.
Paul picks Jacqueline Cavalcanti by split decision, noting that both fighters are likely to go to decision and that Vieira has been involved in many split decisions. He believes Cavalcanti's volume and more impactful strikes will earn her the nod, but expects it to be contentious. He bet the fight ends in a split decision at plus 400.
Zane picks Cavalcanti because she is a sharp technical striker with good footwork and a jab, while Vieira is stuck in the mud with no progression in her game. He expects Cavalcanti to pick Vieira apart at range, as Vieira's only path is to overpower her in the clinch, but she often spends time at range not knowing what to do.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 25 of 83 | 30% | 58 of 121 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 5:19 |
| Norma Dumont | 0 | 62 of 101 | 61% | 87 of 127 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 7 of 23 | 30% | 7 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Norma Dumont | 0 | 17 of 23 | 73% | 25 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 8 of 29 | 27% | 32 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:53 |
| Norma Dumont | 0 | 17 of 37 | 45% | 20 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 10 of 31 | 32% | 19 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Norma Dumont | 0 | 28 of 41 | 68% | 42 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Vieira | 25 of 83 | 30% | 10 of 60 | 5 of 10 | 10 of 13 | 25 of 79 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 2 |
| Norma Dumont | 62 of 101 | 61% | 24 of 60 | 18 of 21 | 20 of 20 | 57 of 96 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketlen Vieira | 7 of 23 | 30% | 1 of 13 | 1 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Norma Dumont | 17 of 23 | 73% | 5 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 10 | 17 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ketlen Vieira | 8 of 29 | 27% | 1 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 2 |
| Norma Dumont | 17 of 37 | 45% | 5 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 14 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ketlen Vieira | 10 of 31 | 32% | 8 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Norma Dumont | 28 of 41 | 68% | 14 of 25 | 11 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 26 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dumont (-150); Vieira (+120)
Round 1
In the previous match, two athletes vied to save their place on the ever-churning roster. In this fourth fight of the evening, the promotion decided to plug in the most relevant matchup of the whole card, as the winner of this bantamweight pairing will most likely be closest to the next title shot come Monday. While Brazil’s Vieira (15-4, 9-4 UFC) already came up short against champ Kayla Harrison, perhaps it would change should they lock horns for five rounds. Standing in her way of all that is “The Immortal” Dumont (12-2, 8-2 UFC), who has heard the final bell in nine straight outings. Whether they make it 10 straight for the streaking Dumont or get out of their early, referee Mark Smith will handle the necessities from here. There is a sporting clap of hands that precedes the action.
Dumont moves to the center of the cage standing as tall as she can, and she hand-fights a pawing Vieira who is just looking for her range. At 40 seconds in, Vieira finally commits to a strike, albeit a leg kick. Dumont responds immediately with one of her own. Vieira sits down on another calf kick to disrupt her opponent, and Dumont says “two can play that game” and gives it back any time Vieira lands on her. They trade hands from up close, drawing a smile out of Dumont as if she felt Vieira’s power and was not concerned. Vieira darts in behind her jab, and the two are just picking and poking at one another with single strikes. Vieira scores first, and Dumont comes back at her.
“Fenomeno” looks for her right hand several times, but Dumont is able to see them coming in time and avoid them. Leg kicks are traded, and Dumont doubles up on a heavy one. Vieira rushes forward, banging into Dumont and forcing her to awkwardly rebound during a takedown effort. Vieira uses the momentum to drag Dumont down, where she takes her back and looks for a rear-naked choke. Dumont flips over to her back to break up the sub, so Vieira transitions to an arm-triangle choke. Dumont once more twists to get out of the worst of it, so Vieira readjusts and presses her shoulder down to complete the sub. Vieira laces her leg between Dumont’s to give her more leverage to crush her shoulder down, and Dumont stays calm and punches Vieira in the side until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Round 2
The round begins with kicks, with Vieira throwing first and last. Dumont hurls a one-two her way, and Vieira is not standing there any longer to get hit. When Dumont does reach her with a right hand, Vieira strafes to the side to reset. Dumont is one-and-done with a kick, and Vieira leans in to score and then leans back. Dumont starts to put more than one strike together in her attacks, sometimes doubling or tripling up on offense or stringing a few back-to-back. Vieira nails the inside leg a few times, prompting Dumont to pitch one back on the outside. Vieira checks the second, and they go tit-for-tat with these strikes for a time.
Vieira leaps forward and gets caught with a right hand from Dumont, and she shoots in from a double from too far out. Dumont shuts it down, so Vieira backs off and tries again from another angle. This time, she puts Dumont on her back with about 1:45 left in the round. Like a snake slowly coiling around to consume its prey, Vieira calmly slithers through to advance to half guard and pursue an arm-triangle choke. This takes a great deal of time to get there, so before she can cinch anything up, the second round is over.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Round 3
The top contenders reach the final frame, and they approach one another in it like the previous two. Dumont moves forward but is generally cautious, and Vieira stays defensively composed from most of what comes her direction. Dumont pushes the action with a storming right hand, colliding with Vieira and putting them on the fence. Vieira quickly turns her foe around, where she imposes her body weight on the streaking Dumont. She leans on Dumont for a time, until Smith calls for them to do more.
Dumont separates first, and she lets loose with her hands. Reaching out with a left and a right, and she looses this two-punch flurry again and again. Vieira stays on the outside edge with her guard high, and Dumont goes to the body when the hands of her foe are up. Dumont swarms forward behind a low kick to open up punches, and she lands cleanly in the midst of her combinations. Vieira is fine to stay on her back heel offering counters and the occasional kick as time ticks off, as Vieira likely expects she is up on the scorecards. Dumont is fighting like she needs the finish, in terms of her own style. She does not bite down on her mouthpiece to bang it out, and she does not point to the ground to force a brawl, but instead remains at kickboxing range leaning in and out to attack. The slow, arduous bantamweight match comes to an end, and both women raise their arms in the air. Could it go either way?
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dumont (29-28 Vieira)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Dumont (29-28 Vieira)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Dumont (29-28 Vieira)
The Official Result
Norma Dumont def. Ketlen Vieira via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Angelo picks Norma Dumont confidently, citing her technical striking, patience, and takedown defense. He notes Ketlen Vieira is bigger but slower and less technical, relying on cage control. He thinks Norma's speed and accuracy will be too much, and expects a decision win. He is very confident in Norma but doesn't see many points in DFS due to a lack of finishes.
Big Brady picks Norma Dumont, noting she looked great in her last fight against Aldana with faster hands. He acknowledges Ketlen Vieira has elite takedown defense but believes the fight will stay standing, where Dumont is the better striker. He predicts a decision win for Dumont.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Dumont is a sharpshooter who can even things up with one hit. He thinks Vieira is not capable of putting pressure on Dumont, and if the fight is a coin flip, Dumont has the edge because she can push a pace Vieira never has.
Lucrative James picks Norma Dumont, but acknowledges it's a close fight. He believes Dumont is the better striker with better range control and takedown defense, and that she can stop Vieira's takedowns. However, he notes that Vieira's path to victory is through grappling, and if she can get top position, she could win. James sees value in the fight going to decision.
Dumont will get her sixth straight victory by putting it on Vieira with her striking and physicality, possibly landing a few takedowns. Dumont is in much better shape and a better state of her career, leading to a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Norma Dumont, highlighting her recent sharp stand-up performance against Irene Aldana. He criticizes Ketlen Vieira's inconsistency and poor recent performances. He believes Dumont has momentum and will win by decision, possibly 29-28.
Zane picks Dumont because she is a sharp striker who can push a pace that Vieira cannot match. He notes that Vieira is stiff and wide open, and Dumont has the ability to land fight-changing shots. Even if Dumont has a bad fight, he expects a narrow contest, and if she has a good one, she wins clearly.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 28 of 64 | 43% | 106 of 174 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 10:06 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 22 of 43 | 51% | 52 of 77 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 18 of 48 | 37% | 29 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 18 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 39 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:47 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 9 of 10 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 38 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:13 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 25 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Vieira | 28 of 64 | 43% | 25 of 60 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 15 of 47 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 11 |
| Macy Chiasson | 22 of 43 | 51% | 8 of 25 | 6 of 9 | 8 of 9 | 20 of 39 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketlen Vieira | 18 of 48 | 37% | 15 of 44 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 13 of 43 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Macy Chiasson | 17 of 31 | 54% | 5 of 16 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 8 | 17 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ketlen Vieira | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ketlen Vieira | 8 of 12 | 66% | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 7 |
| Macy Chiasson | 5 of 11 | 45% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chiasson (-118), Vieira (-102)
Round 1
What was once a likely bantamweight title eliminator has become a featherweight fight of little import, thanks to Vieira (14-4, 8-4 UFC) being unable to get down to the 136-pound limit. Chiasson (10-3, 8-3 UFC), with eyes to the future, gladly accepts 25% of Vieira’s purse before getting to punch her in the face for her transgression. Referee Mark Smith stands by to keep things on the up-and-up, although the match still opens with the ladies clapping hands first. Vieira takes to the center of the Octagon, with Chiasson circling around her probing her with low kicks and jabs. The Louisiana native manages her distance well, staying active and not letting Vieira strike her. Chiasson fires up a head kick, and uses it as a way to open a left hand up. Vieira looks to counter, but Chiasson is out of range from everything besides a pair of body shots. Vieira sits down on a right hand, shaking Chiasson up a little and forcing her to reset. Chiasson goes for a spinning wheel kick that misses the mark significantly, and Vieira tracks her down and smashes her in the face with a ferocious right hand. Chiasson wears it well but is not a fan, scooting out of the way before Vieira can pin her down again. Chiasson prods the body with jabs and kicks, and Vieira counters with a right hand over the top. Vieira connects with a few fast hands, and when Chiasson clinches, she lays into her with another flurry of blows. Both women try to land elbows from up close, but they sway just enough to let them soar past one another. Vieira bullies Chiasson against the fencing, and Chiasson slowly but methodically fights her way out while using a knee to get some space. Vieira pushes her close again and back to the wall, and she punches her way out rather than glom on to the taller woman. Chiasson chips at the front leg a few times, and she catches Vieira on the temple with a long right hand. Vieira scores a combo of punches to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Round 2
The moment gloves are touched, Chiasson shoots in for a takedown. Vieira’s defense spikes them both on their faces, and she recovers just the faster to turn to the side to establish top position. The Brazilian hops a few times to get herself in the conventional guard, but she is intent on passing to somewhere better and clinging to an arm-triangle choke setup. Chiasson is wise to it and she fights back with elbows and even flirts with an armbar setup, but she is stifled when Vieira stays flatly pressed to her. Chiasson pushes off the hips, and she turns to a knee but inadvertently gives up her back. As she rolls, Chiasson finds herself still in Vieira’s clutches. Vieira gets herself back on top in the guard, smothering the American while not otherwise utilizing much offense. Vieira lands punches every so often, preferring to rack up control time while shutting down anything Chiasson can do. Chiasson slashes off her back with her elbow, and she scores two more when Vieira postures up. Vieira rides out the remainder of the round on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Round 3
Before the third round begins, Smith calls in a cutman to slice the tape off of Vieira’s glove. The two touch gloves, and Chiasson comes out shot out of a cannon. Punching her way into a single, Chiasson finds that the Brazilian is not about to go down and falls to her back. Vieira establishes herself on top again, and she embraces the grind immediately. It does not take Smith long to ask for more activity, with Vieira content to work the body with short strikes and remain busy enough to keep her position. Vieira sits up and drills Chiasson with a pair of punches that lead her corner to hoot and holler, and Chiasson fails to employ butterfly hooks to get some space. Vieira’s smothering ground control is sucking the energy out of the building, and when Chiasson attempts to escape, the Brazilian is there to shut her down completely. Smith again asks for Vieira to do more, and it is Chiasson who does some damage with a vicious elbow that rips open a cut on Vieira’s forehead. Chiasson uses the moment to explode to her feet, where she starts laying into Vieira with punches and elbows. Vieira tries to clinch, and Chiasson bails on it and leaps at her with lunging punches and kicks. Chiasson drills the Brazilian with exhausted one-twos, and her late onslaught may sway a judge or two because of the damage inflicted. The not-so-thrilling fight comes to an end.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (30-27 Vieira)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (30-27 Vieira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (30-27 Vieira)
The Official Result
Ketlen Vieira def. Macy Chiasson via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Angelo picks Ketlen Vieira, believing she can bully Macy Chiasson by closing the distance and negating Chiasson's length. He notes that Vieira lost to Kayla Harrison (potential champion) while Chiasson's win was due to a cut. He is cautious about betting on someone coming off a loss but would bet on Vieira as a dog if odds flip.
Big Brady picks Ketlen Vieira with low confidence, citing her elite takedown defense (88%) as the key factor. He notes that even Kayla Harrison struggled to take Vieira down. He believes Vieira is the better striker if the fight stays standing and may even take Chiasson down, as Chiasson has been taken down by lesser fighters. He expects a close decision.
Connor picks Chiasson for being crazy and aggressive, and because Vieira looks consistently uncomfortable on the feet. He notes that if Vieira cannot get takedowns, Chiasson could be the more aggressive clinch striker. However, he acknowledges the fight is low-level and hard to call.
Matt picks Macy Chiasson to win by decision. He values Chiasson's physicality and improving striking, which he believes will overcome Vieira's technical striking. He notes that Chiasson blends her striking with grappling effectively and sees value at -125, estimating her true odds around -150 to -185. He expects a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Macy Chiasson over Ketlen Vieira, citing Chiasson's volume, pressure, and physicality advantage. He criticizes Vieira's recent performance against Miesha Tate and believes Chiasson's grit will force a high-output fight. He worries about a potential submission from Vieira but overall favors Chiasson.
Zane picks Vieira because he believes she can out-wrestle and out-grapple Chiasson, and that her strength and top control will be decisive. He notes that Chiasson has improved but still struggles in the clinch and is easy to hit. However, he acknowledges that if Vieira cannot get takedowns, she will struggle due to her poor striking confidence.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla Harrison | 0 | 24 of 61 | 39% | 67 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 55 of 94 | 58% | 98 of 149 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 7:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayla Harrison | 0 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 27 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 37 of 53 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:46 | |
| 2 | Kayla Harrison | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 29 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 27 of 50 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:02 | |
| 3 | Kayla Harrison | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 23 of 32 | 71% | 34 of 46 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla Harrison | 24 of 61 | 39% | 12 of 38 | 4 of 15 | 8 of 8 | 21 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 55 of 94 | 58% | 34 of 69 | 14 of 16 | 7 of 9 | 19 of 50 | 15 of 17 | 21 of 27 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayla Harrison | 5 of 16 | 31% | 1 of 8 | 0 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 17 of 27 | 62% | 7 of 17 | 9 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 12 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Kayla Harrison | 14 of 32 | 43% | 8 of 22 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 15 of 35 | 42% | 8 of 25 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 29 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kayla Harrison | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 23 of 32 | 71% | 19 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 23 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Harrison (-800), Vieira (+550)
Round 1
Even though she is currently ranked higher than her opponent, Vieira (14-3, 8-3 UFC) finds herself as a massive betting underdog at around +700 against enormous favorite Harrison (17-1, 1-0 UFC). Anything can happen in this glorious sport, and it often does. This grappling-centric affair will draw oversight from referee Marc Goddard, and the main card commences as the bantamweights touch ‘em up. Vieira flicks out a jab towards the jittery Harrison, and she gets knocked back by a left hand. Vieira reaches out with her right hand, and chants in support of her opponent rain down in the form of “USA!” Harrison does not channel this energy immediately, taking to the center of the cage and checking a low kick. Harrison kicks her to the chest, and Vieira skirts out the outer edge of the cage. Harrison tries to hit a trip, and Vieira slips away. Harrison fires off a high kick, and Vieira blocks it as the judoka stumbles. Harrison springs back to her feet and grasps Vieira around the waist, delivering knees to the body as Vieira tries to catch them fruitlessly. Harrison goes for a knee up top, and she hunts for a few trips to no avail. Harrison slams a knee in the ribs, and she uses her other to smack the Brazilian in the face with it. Goddard asks for more activity, and the audience turns on the ladies as they spend a lot of time in the clinch. Vieira tries to escape, and she blocks a knee and wings as right hand that bounces off the guard. Harrison checks another kick and parries a body kick, and she returns fire with her own kick to the stomach. Harrison sticks and moves with a low kick and one high, and Vieira swings and misses. This allows Harrison to close in on her, and she bowls Vieira over and ultimately lands in half guard. “USA” chants for Harrison rain down again, and she moves to mount and blasts Vieira in the face with an elbow. Vieira turns around to give up her back, and Harrison follows her every step of the way, battering her with elbows and punches. Vieira rides out the position under fire until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Harrison
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Harrison
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Harrison
Round 2
The ladies meet in the middle, and they lob inaccurate strikes at one another. The first one landed is a low kick from the American, and she dances out of the way of a few long right hands from Vieira. Vieira sits down on a right hand to catch Harrison on the chin, and she gets tripped out with an inside low kick. Vieira stands back up without issue, and she parries a high kick. Vieira gets off her own leg kick, and she again tags Harrison with a right on the side of the head. Vieira digs a right to the body, and Harrison punches her way into a takedown attempt where she grabs the leg and puts her hand behind the neck to throw her foe down. Vieira fights it off and resets, blocking another head kick so she can jab Harrison in the ribs. Harrison shoots for a takedown and complains of an eye poke when Vieira posted off, and Harrison signals she is fine and does not need to pause. Vieira stops two more attempts and lands a few strikes, and Harrison plants her feet to connect with a heavy leg kick. Harrison pushes in tight to the clinch, and she is warned for holding the fence. Vieira breaks away, and Harrison plows forward with a knee to the body before clinching up again. While Vieira answers with an elbow, she cannot gain any space. Vieira rings her bell with another elbow, and Harrison pushes through it to get back up close and personal with knees to the body. Vieira blasts her with another elbow, and swelling has developed above Harrison’s right eye. Harrison digs several more knees to the body, and blood trickles out of the lump on her head. Goddard asks for more action, and he splits them up with 20 seconds left in the round. Vieira kicks low, gets checked, and pushes past a head kick to throw one back. The round ends with both ladies whiffing on kicks.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Harrison
Round 3
The ladies bump fists and then bow to one another to start the round. Harrison comes out aggressively, blocking a kick and shooting in for a double. Vieira breaks out of it and lobs back a one-two that busts open Harrison’s nose, with blood flowing immediately. Harrison tries for another takedown, and that fails again. Harrison gets off an inside leg kick that disrupts Vieira’s balance, and she pursues a takedown and comes up short. Harrison checks a calf kick and goes for a takedown that is nowhere close to landing. Vieira swipes a right to the body, and her guard is high to block a head kick. Harrison crashes forward for a takedown, lifts Vieira’s leg up and cannot get her down. On Harrison’s second attempt, she succeeds in wrenching the Brazilian to the mat. Vieira tries to tug on the fencing to stop it, but she is placed on her back with Harrison raining down elbows. Vieira pushes her back, and Harrison comes back to drill her with a left hand. Harrison stays busy with ground-and-pound, and Vieira pulls her toes on the wire to get to a more advantageous position. Harrison postures up to drop down three left hands, and Vieira throws her legs up for a high guard or a triangle choke. Harrison is wise to it and continues slamming down punches, and she brings down the hammer with a few high-amplitude elbows. Harrison passes to half guard, and she slices over to mount with 45 seconds to spare. Harrison slashes down with a few elbows, and Vieira clings to her tightly. Vieira turns over, and Harrison spins with her and wrenches on her neck with a brute force crank more than a choke. Harrison swirls over to half guard when Vieira turns, and she gets pushed to her feet as the match concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Harrison (29-28 Harrison)
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Harrison (29-28 Harrison)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Harrison (30-27 Harrison)
The Official Result
Kayla Harrison def. Ketlen Vieira via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Kayla Harrison to dominate, citing her Olympic gold medal judo and physical strength. He notes Ketlen Vieira relies on being big and strong to bully opponents, but that won't work against Harrison. He expects Harrison to toss Vieira and control the fight. He also suggests looking at the under 2.5 rounds line for potential value.
Big Brady picks Kayla Harrison confidently, acknowledging Vieira is solid but believes Harrison is on a different level. He expects Harrison's judo to overcome Vieira's takedown defense, and once on top, Harrison will control and win a decision, possibly with a finish. He notes the weight cut is something to monitor.
Cody picks Harrison, believing her Judo and ground-and-pound will be effective. He acknowledges Vieira's takedown defense and altitude concerns but thinks Harrison's UFC debut win over Holly Holm showed her potential. He warns against betting the heavy favorite.
Connor also picks Harrison, echoing Zane's reasoning. He notes that Vieira has never believed in her hands since being knocked out by Raquel Pennington and relies on clinch work, which plays into Harrison's strengths. Connor expects Harrison to win impressively and set up a title fight.
Daniel Vreeland picks Kayla Harrison. He admits he hasn't been the biggest Harrison fan and has faded her before, but notes that her one-dimensional grappling is so elite that it doesn't matter. He points out that Harrison's takedown game is elite and she is physically very strong for the weight class, even though she is cutting a lot of weight. He believes she will pile things on and get a win, possibly by submission.
Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Kayla Harrison, calling her a once-in-a-lifetime athlete. He notes that Harrison's drop to 135 has made her more explosive and athletic. While Vieira has 92% takedown defense, Vreeland believes Harrison's Judo and wrestling will overcome that. He expects Harrison to win and secure a title shot, though he is unsure of the method.
Jeff Fox picks Kayla Harrison. He notes that Harrison is a two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo and has elite grappling. He believes her takedown game and physical strength will be too much for Ketlen Vieira, even though Vieira has a grappling base. Fox thinks Harrison will dominate on the ground and likely get a finish.
The host thinks the odds are a bit wide for his liking but still believes Harrison will go out and grind the fight out. He notes Harrison is the superior grappler and may be at a disadvantage in striking, but not enough to prevent her from closing distance and using judo. He expects Harrison to win on the scorecards, as Vieira will show enough resistance to avoid a finish.
Paul picks Harrison, noting her world-class grappling and the fact that she can now use elbows in the UFC. He mentions Vieira's cardio issues and Harrison's ability to grind out a win, but cautions about the weight cut and altitude.
The MMA Guru picks Kayla Harrison over Ketlen Vieira, citing Harrison's dominant grappling and physicality. He notes Harrison's ability to toss around training partners like Alex Pereira and her past performance against Holly Holm. He believes Harrison will be the champion and that Vieira is not on her level. He also mentions the fight is three rounds, so altitude is less of a concern.
Zane picks Harrison confidently, noting that Vieira is a swing-and-clinch artist who lacks the nuance to deal with Harrison's superior judo and grappling. He highlights Harrison's adjustment in the Holly Holm fight where she let go of a hip toss to land in top position. Zane expects Harrison to dominate in the clinch and win decisively.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 65 of 103 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 10:49 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 0 | 22 of 51 | 43% | 92 of 144 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 23 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:53 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 0 | 4 of 16 | 25% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 25 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 4:18 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 17 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:38 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 70 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Vieira | 15 of 33 | 45% | 13 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 22 of 51 | 43% | 17 of 45 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketlen Vieira | 5 of 15 | 33% | 4 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 4 of 16 | 25% | 2 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ketlen Vieira | 7 of 13 | 53% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 4 of 9 | 44% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ketlen Vieira | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 14 of 26 | 53% | 12 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vieira (-150), Kianzad (+130)
Round 1
The fight with arguably the greatest title implications tonight is buried in the middle of the prelims, as the women’s bantamweight division is still championless and the perceived “uncrowned queen” of Holly Holm was knocked down a peg last week. Both women on the outside of the UFC’s top five looking in, Vieira (13-3, 7-3 UFC) and Kianzad (16-6, 5-3 UFC) will engage in a crucial contest at 135 pounds. With neither woman sporting a stoppage rate over 50%, referee Jason Herzog could be in it for the long haul here. Vieira offers a glove touch, but Kianzad wants nothing to do with it. Instead, Kianzad races forward pushing out straight punches down the middle. Vieira dodges back and reaches out with a heavy right hand, and Kianzad is out of the way in time. Vieira sticks out a jab, and Kianzad catches her with a left hand and a right over the top. Kianzad pokes out a jab, and she follows with a left hook that bounces off the guard. Vieira shoots in for a low single-leg takedown, and she lifts Kianzad’s leg up and throws her down to land right in side control. Kianzad recovers to half guard when Vieira sets up an arm-triangle choke, and the Brazilian still has her left arm hooked around the head of her opponent. Vieira looks to isolate Kianzad’s left arm for a potential armlock, and Kianzad turns to her side to stop it from coming together. Vieira powers her back over with shoulder pressure, smothering “Banzai” and returning her flat to her back. Kianzad gets back to a guard and she sets up butterfly hooks to push off, and this allows Vieira to punch her square in the face. Kianzad responds with a few strikes off her back, but the ones she absorbs from “Fenomeno” are far heavier. Kianzad looks to push off the midsection, but Vieira stays heavy as a ton of bricks and steps into the half guard. Vieira controls her adversary and presses her shoulder into Kianzad’s face and neck, and frustrating the Swede. Vieira grabs hold of the left arm and isolates it to grip for a kimura, and Kianzad protects herself by putting it under her back. As Vieira shifts to north-south position, the bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Round 2
The ladies meet in the middle of the cage, and Kianzad leads off with a looping left hook. Vieira blocks it and replies in kind, and the strike from the Brazilian glances off the raised guard. When Kianzad kicks low, Vieira gives her three punches over the top. Kianzad steps in to punch, and Vieira snatches up the lead leg and easily throws Kianzad to the canvas. Vieira goes right to half guard, and a desperate Kianzad is able to pull her into her guard and closes it up. Kianzad times a moment in transition to push her foot off Vieira’s body, but Vieira is able to casually shift back over the half guard. Vieira starts hunting for a kimura, and Kianzad defends it but starts taking heavy body shots. Vieira gloms onto her, and she hops into full mount and quickly locks down an arm-triangle choke. Vieira squeezes with her full body weight, and Kianzad defends it with her left arm between the grip of her opponent and her own neck. Kianzad turns the proper way to protect her neck, and Vieira abandons the submission. Kianzad explodes to her side, and she attempts to turn over and get to her knees so she can get back up. Vieira bowls her over and puts her on her back again. With 30 seconds remaining, Vieira tries to lock down an arm-triangle choke on the other side, but Kianzad is wise to it and is not in submission danger. The round ends with Vieira on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Round 3
A fire seemingly lit under her backside, Kianzad springs right into action, rushing at Vieira with punches in bunches. When Kianzad overextends on a left hook, Vieira smartly changes levels, coming up with a clean double-leg takedown to put Kianzad on her back 15 seconds into the final frame. Kianzad does everything she can to scoot her way to the wall, and this gives up her back in the process. Vieira leans with her back against the fencing, holding onto Kianzad from behind and sliding her hooks in. The leverage for any submission is not there, until she turns to lower herself to the floor. Vieira sets up a rear-naked choke, and Kianzad hand-fights to save herself from getting tapped. When Kianzad thwarts the choke, Vieira locks up a body triangle to further make Kianzad’s life miserable. Kianzad is able to defend from the choke setups, and she grits her teeth and spins around to secure top position with about two minutes left in the fight. Kianzad opens up with punches when she winds up on top, and Vieira clings to her to shut down the offense. Kianzad frees herself and stands up, and she jumps down to nail Vieira with a diving right hand. As Kianzad does damage from the guard, the commentary team starts discussing people walking their cats in strollers. All the while, Kianzad is doing anything she can to hunt for a finish, flailing with punches and hammerfists. Vieira pushes off with the ball of her foot, and she smacks Kianzad in the face with one illegally. Herzog checks on Kianzad, who says she is fine and wants to keep going. Kianzad rains down punches to any target, marking up Vieira’s right eye, and swinging frantically. Vieira throws her legs up high for a triangle choke, and she simultaneously grips an armbar, and the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (30-27 Vieira)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (30-27 Vieira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (30-27 Vieira)
The Official Result
Ketlen Vieira def. Pannie Kianzad via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo favors Pannie Kianzad's footwork, speed, athleticism, and jab over Ketlen Vieira's size and strength. He notes Vieira's recent performances have been spotty and that her lack of speed could be exploited. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds and a plus 3.5 betting line on Kianzad.
Big Brady picks Pannie Kianzad by decision, but says he doesn't care about the fight and won't bet it. He likes Kianzad's volume striking and believes she can keep the fight standing with 80% takedown defense. He notes Vieira lands harder shots but Kianzad will outwork her. He is concerned if Vieira gets takedowns.
Cody picks Vieira, noting her superior competition and grappling advantage. He thinks she will use clinch and takedowns to control Kianzad. He acknowledges it could be a close decision but sees value at -140.
Daniel slightly leans toward Ketlen Vieira, noting she has historically been on a higher level and is stronger in the clinch with better top control. However, he thinks she hasn't looked the same since her injury and surgery after the Zingano fight. He acknowledges Pannie Kianzad has better hands and durability, and expects a closely contested fight that could go either way. He is not surprised if Kianzad wins a split decision.
The host picks Ketlen Vieira, believing her damaging strikes will outweigh Kianzad's volume. He notes Vieira's power and ability to hurt opponents, while Kianzad struggles against higher competition and takes damage poorly. He expects Vieira to storm back and win by decision.
Paul picks Vieira, citing her size, strength, and grappling. He notes Kianzad struggles in the clinch and has been knocked down. He thinks Vieira's boxing improvements will help, but expects a close decision.
The MMA Guru leans towards Ketlen Vieira, calling it a coin flip but favoring her based on level of competition. He notes that Amanda Nunes' retirement may motivate contenders. He dismisses Pannie Kianzad's win over Lina Länsberg and criticizes her performance against Alexis Davis. The Guru believes Vieira's size, strength, and reach advantage will lead to a 29-28 split decision win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 64 of 152 | 42% | 138 of 230 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:45 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 81 of 159 | 50% | 104 of 184 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 23 of 71 | 32% | 29 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 27 of 58 | 46% | 27 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 21 of 51 | 41% | 42 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 29 of 61 | 47% | 32 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 | |
| 3 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 20 of 30 | 66% | 67 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:04 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 25 of 40 | 62% | 45 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 64 of 152 | 42% | 41 of 122 | 5 of 10 | 18 of 20 | 56 of 143 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 81 of 159 | 50% | 37 of 111 | 32 of 35 | 12 of 13 | 59 of 134 | 22 of 25 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 23 of 71 | 32% | 15 of 58 | 3 of 7 | 5 of 6 | 21 of 69 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 27 of 58 | 46% | 14 of 44 | 9 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 24 of 54 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 21 of 51 | 41% | 10 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 9 | 19 of 48 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 29 of 61 | 47% | 14 of 43 | 11 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 51 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Raquel Pennington | 20 of 30 | 66% | 16 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 16 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 25 of 40 | 62% | 9 of 24 | 12 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 29 | 11 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vieira (-115), Pennington (-105)
Round 1
In terms of pure rankings, no fight on the billing is more relevant than this fight that is not on the marquee. This women’s bantamweight pairing, one pitting the second-ranked Vieira (13-2, 7-2 UFC) against the no. 5 Pennington (14-8, 11-5 UFC), could have immediate title implications depending on how it plays out. One woman will take her first defeat in quite some time, and referee Chris Tognoni will be the first to know who that is. The ladies sportingly clap hands ahead of their important fight, and they are jittery and not ready to engage. At the 20-second mark, Pennington leaps forward with a superwoman punch, and Vieira backs her off with a solid right hand in response. Vieira walks through a low kick on the inside and a jab to the body so that she can swing a swatting left hook, but this misses the mark. The Brazilian whiffs on a big right as well, prompting Pennington to charge in with a stream of jabs. Vieira parries two looping strikes to catch “Rocky” with a short right hand on the way in. Pennington appears no worse for wear as she goes for another kick on the inside of the knee, and she ducks back when a big left hook whizzes past her face. Vieira grabs a charging Pennington to knee her right in the chest, and she sends her backpedaling with a clean right hand across the bow. Pennington slams her shin on the low calf of her opponent, and she fakes a second to draw an exaggerated reaction out of the Brazilian. Vieira snipes with a left hand to open a cut on the top of Pennington’s forehead, and she chains together a combination of punches and a low kick to keep Pennington guessing. Vieira absorbs a kick to the ribs as she closes the distance, and she reaches her foe with a left hook in a short salvo. Vieira paws out a trio of low kicks before lunging with a straight punch to the body, and Pennington answers with a similar punch before swinging a left hand at her. Vieira lands at the end of her left hook, and another superwoman punch from Pennington allows her to close the distance and tie the Brazilian up to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Round 2
The bantamweight contenders touch hands before re-engaging, and engage they do almost immediately, when Pennington coming out firing. Vieira answers with a counter left hook, as she measures this strike to draw ever closer to the mark. Vieira takes one on the chin to throw back two, and she has a handful of punches ricochet off the guard. Pennington connects with a heavy one-two, and Vieira blinks it out but cannot keep an advancing Pennington off of her. “Rocky” grabs hold of Vieira from behind, where she considers elevating the Brazilian to drop her on the mat, or otherwise force Vieira to carry her body weight. Vieira gets warned for bragging the fence, and she turns back around in the clinch and belts Pennington in the face with a stern elbow. Vieira opens up with a one-two, and she starts slugging it out with her opponent and gets marked up as well. The right side of Pennington’s face is growingly covered in blood, while Vieira’s mouth is also turning a brilliant shade of scarlet. Vieira spins Pennington around, and a knee from the former title challenger slams square into Vieira’s groin. Tognoni recognizes the foul as Vieira appears in clear pain, and the action is paused for about 45 seconds until they get back to it. Pennington starts off the initial aggressor, slinging a high kick and a few lancing punches while Vieira throws back in volume. Vieira gets off with a right hand, and Pennington replies in kind to snap the head back. Pennington nails her with another right over the top before latching on to the clinch and clubbing the body with a pair of knees. Pennington checks the clock when pinned to the fence – it reads about 58 seconds – and she tries with all her might to break off. When she cannot get out of the clinch, she settles for knee after unanswered knee to the chest and midsection. Vieira is sticking to her tightly without striking back, and Pennington remains the busier of the two with body shots. Vieira slithers around to the back with seconds to spare, and there is nothing to be had before the bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Round 3
The ladies double touch hands, hug and then bump fists again to start the last round. They immediately go for broke, with Pennington not wasting any time engaging and throwing hands. Pennington cracks Vieira with a superwoman punch, and Vieira answers with several speedy punches in response. The two close the distance and end up tied up, with Vieira pushing the former title challenger against the wall. Pennington grinds her elbow on the chin as Vieira stays close enough to not take many knees as she did the end of the last round. When Pennington sets up a Thai plum, Vieira disengages. Vieira resets and dings Pennington with a right hand, stringing together a few strikes before Pennington closes in to grab hold of her. They trade short single punches up close, and both try to attempt a throw or toss to change position. When neither succeed, Vieira spins her around in the tie-up, and Pennington looks for a Thai clinch again. This time, Pennington is able to score a knee before they separate, and Vieira leaps forward suddenly with a crushing elbow. Pennington takes it cleanly and tries to escape, so Vieira follows her and nails her with another before snagging here again up close. Vieira targets elbows, and Pennington rips the body with a knee. When in the clinch, Vieira slips around to nearly take the back, and she knees the thigh while Pennington punches her from over her own shoulder. Vieira looks to elevate Pennington, but she cannot throw her as Pennington’s base is too solid. Vieira stays clung to her adversary right to the bitter end, and the judges have their hands full with this one.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (29-28 Vieira)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (29-28 Vieira)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (29-28 Vieira)
The Official Result
Raquel Pennington def. Ketlen Vieira via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Angelo picks Vieira, citing her size, power, and Judo. He thinks she will be busier in the clinch and work off the cage, making Pennington look boring. He acknowledges Pennington's toughness but believes Vieira's recent win over Holly Holm and physical advantages will secure a decision. He is willing to bet on her.
Big Brady picks Ketlen Vieira but is not confident, calling it his least favorite fight on the card. He sees Vieira having a grappling advantage if she gets on top, but notes she often does nothing with control time, as seen in fights against Yana Kunitskaya and Holly Holm. He also acknowledges Pennington's clinch work and ability to push Vieira against the cage. He predicts a close, ugly decision that judges might get wrong, and he will not bet on the fight.
Cody leans slightly towards Pennington, noting her striking output against Aspen Ladd and potential bulldog choke. He sees it as a close fight and prefers to bet it live after seeing who is stronger in the clinch.
Connor picks Vieira because she is physically stronger and more powerful, and has a wrestling advantage that can neutralize Pennington's boxing. He notes that Pennington often gets taken down at least once per fight, and Vieira's clinch work and top control can sway judges. Connor also mentions that Vieira showed renewed confidence against Holly Holm, throwing off her back foot and in clinches.
Connor also picks Vieira, agreeing that she has improved and has more options. He notes that Pennington has power and patience, which could create opportunities, but Vieira's grappling and overall game should prevail. Connor mentions that Pennington has made herself interesting but Vieira is the better fighter.
Jacob picks Pennington, calling Vieira overrated and Pennington underrated. He argues Pennington's recent wins are more impressive and she is the better overall fighter. He notes Vieira's split decision losses and that Pennington's clinch control and striking looked sharp. He is confident enough to bet $100 against Angelo.
Paul leans towards Vieira, citing her size and recent five-round experience. He expects a clinch-heavy fight and thinks Vieira may get the better of it, but admits he has low confidence and sees it as a pass or live-bet situation.
Zane picks Pennington because she has steadily improved her boxing and showed excellent counter-punching against Aspen Ladd. He notes that Pennington is a solid defensive wrestler who doesn't give up much even when taken down, and that she makes good decisions as the fight goes on. Zane also points out that Vieira's striking has become overly cautious since her knockout loss, relying on clinch work rather than developing her forward striking.
Zane picks Vieira, noting that she has shown improvements in tactical depth and technique over her last few fights. He believes she has too many options and has gotten better at connecting phases of her game, defense, and counterpunching. However, he worries about her last fight against Melissa Gatto where she couldn't finish and got reversed. He still thinks she should be a lock to win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 96 of 157 | 61% | 188 of 263 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 10:03 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 85 of 151 | 56% | 122 of 190 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 | 0 | 1:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 33 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:36 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 19 of 22 | 86% | 40 of 45 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 33 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:46 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 17 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:56 | |
| 3 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 42 of 56 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:50 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 23 of 37 | 62% | 27 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 4 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 37 of 68 | 54% | 37 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 23 of 51 | 45% | 23 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 21 of 29 | 72% | 43 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Vieira | 96 of 157 | 61% | 26 of 79 | 34 of 40 | 36 of 38 | 76 of 133 | 20 of 24 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 85 of 151 | 56% | 49 of 109 | 29 of 34 | 7 of 8 | 49 of 110 | 32 of 37 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketlen Vieira | 6 of 9 | 66% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 19 of 22 | 86% | 3 of 5 | 14 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 6 | 14 of 14 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Ketlen Vieira | 14 of 21 | 66% | 6 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 8 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 10 of 22 | 45% | 7 of 15 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 15 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Ketlen Vieira | 18 of 30 | 60% | 4 of 13 | 9 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 13 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 23 of 37 | 62% | 11 of 25 | 11 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 26 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Ketlen Vieira | 37 of 68 | 54% | 5 of 33 | 16 of 18 | 16 of 17 | 36 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 23 of 51 | 45% | 19 of 46 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 47 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Ketlen Vieira | 21 of 29 | 72% | 9 of 16 | 7 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 22 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 10 of 19 | 52% | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holm (-240), Vieira (+195)
Round 1
Jason Herzog will oversee the evening’s bantamweight headliner. After having multiple fights fall through, Holm makes her first appearance since a dominant win over Irene Aldana in October 2020. Vieira, meanwhile, will attempt to add another notable name to her ledger after besting ex-champ Miesha Tate this past November. Holm opens up with an outside leg kick and Vieira answers with a heavy inside leg kick. Holm with a side kick to the knee of her opponent. Vieira closes distance and shoves Holm into the fence. The Jackson-Wink product quickly reverses position. Vieira attempts to execute a throw and then lands a few punches as Holm scrambles up. They remain in the clinch, with Holm in control, pushing Vieira into the fence. Holm with a few short punches to the head. Holm defends a trip and lands a few punches. Holm is controlling the clinch and appears to be the stronger fighter, but there’s not a ton of action in this position. They trade knees and Holm drops for a single leg. Holm gives up on it and continues to grind away against the fence. Holm lands a few knees to the thigh of Vieira, who responds with knees of her own to the midsection. Holm defends another throw and the round ends in the clinch.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Round 2
Holm begins with an outside leg kick. Vieira just misses the mark on a head kick. The Brazilian moves forward and fires off a straight right. Vieira closes the distance behind a combination, but Holm circles out. Another leg kick for Holm. Holm with a leg kick yet again, and she moves away from Vieira’s counter. Holm punches her way into the clinch and Vieira executes a nice hip toss. Holm immediately slides to the fence and posts an arm before standing. Vieira shoves Holm into the cage, but “The Preacher’s Daughter” turns off the cage and separates. Holm with a standing side kick to the head. Holm gets in on a single leg. Vieira hops on one leg while attacking a guillotine. Holm clings to the leg and atttempts to drag Viera to the mat. She leaves her neck exposed and Vieira briefly has a really tight standing rear-naked choke. Somehow Holm, with her face red and eyes bulging, turns out of it and shoves Vieira into the cage. Holm fires off a hard elbow from the clinch. Another elbow for Holm with time winding down. The round ends with Holm controlling position against the fence.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tudor Leonte scores the round:10-9 Vieira
Round 3
Holm goes back to the outside leg kick and Vieira answers with an inside low kick. Holm with a punching flurry, but Vieira counters her. Moments later, a front kick to the face from Vieira appears to catch Holm, who keeps her bearings and turns her foe into the cage. Holm is content to grind away from the clinch, but Vieira breaks free. Holm with an outside leg kick followed by a side kick to the midsection. Holm goes with a high kick, but Vieira blocks it. A right hand from Vieira lands flush, so Holm punches her way into the clinch. Vieira does a good job landing a few knees up the middle with her back to the cage. Holm continues to control head positioning with an underhook while occasionally flurrying with left hands. Holm with more short left hands to the head, and Vieira breaks free and lands a solid right hand. Holm lands a standing side kick but Vieira marches forward and sticks a stiff right nad to the chin. Holm ends the frame with a few knees in close quarters.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Round 4
Holm moves forward behind a combination, but Vieira answers with a clean right hand. Holm attempts to close the distance, but she’s stung by a right nand from Vieira. A front kick to the face lands for Holm but Vieira eats it without issue. Holm rushes forward but Vieira counters with the more significant punches. Vieira tags Holm with a combination. They briefly clinch and Vieira sticks another right. Holm’s blitzes aren’t effectively, but a standing side kick puts Vieira on her seat and Holm follows with a body kick when she stands. Another Vieira right hand catches Holm coming in. Holm forces the clinch but eats an uppercut in the process. Vieira is able to separate and circle away. A straight right snaps Holm’s head back. It’s another close round, but Vieira counters effectively with a punching combination yet again as Holm wades forward. Holm continues to throw a variety of kicks, but the punching exchanges are going Vieira’s way. Holm with another furious flurry before the bantamweights clinch at the end of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Tudor Leonte scores the round:10-9 Holm
Round 5
The combatants hug to start the round. Vieira gets Holm’s attention with a head kick. They clinch, and Vieira breaks with a spinning elbow. Holm with a big left hand into the clinch. Vieira breaks free and Holm attacks with a front kick to the body. Holm forces the clinch again and the fighters stall before they reach the fence. Holm lands a short elbow on the break. Vieira counters a kick with a solid right hand. Holm forces the clinch and shoves Vieira into the cage, where she lands a knee. Vieira separates, but Holm lands a pair of nice front kicks to the face. A glancing head kick also finds the mark for Holm. Vieira counters an onrushing Holm with an uppercut. Holm changes levels and grabs a single leg. She shoves Vieira into the fence with less than 2:00 to go. Holm lets go of the leg but maintains the underhook. A short right hook lands for Holm on the break. Holm with a kick to the body and they clinch again. Holm shoves Vieira back into the fence. On the break, Holm with a flurry of punches. Holm stuffs an ensuing takedown from Vieira, turns her foe into the fence and lands several short punches. Holm drops for a takedown, can't get it and then lands some punches to the thigh before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm (48-47 Holm)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Holm (48-47 Holm)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Holm (48-47 Holm)
The Official Result
Ketlen Vieira def. Holly Holm via Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Holly Holm because she can turn the fight into a kickboxing match and has excellent takedown defense. He notes that Vieira's charging forward plays into Holm's counter-striking. He doesn't factor in the layoff because Holm has never been an active fighter. He expects a decision win for Holm and suggests a prop bet on Holm by decision.
Big Brady picks Holly Holm to win by decision, citing her superior striking, cardio, and competition level. He notes Vieira has a grappling advantage but doubts she can out-grapple Holm for five rounds. His only concern is Holm's age (40) and 19-month layoff, but he believes if she looks like she did against Irene Aldana, she should cruise. He sees no path to victory for Vieira unless Holm is old.
Cody believes Holly Holm's striking volume, improved wrestling, and five-round experience will be too much for Ketlen Vieira. He notes Holm's lateral mobility and speed, and that Vieira has been outstruck in most of her UFC fights. He is confident Holm wins but finds the -240 moneyline a bit steep, preferring to bet Holm by decision or late-round finishes.
The host discusses the main event but does not make a clear pick. He mentions Holly Holm's age and questions whether she can still compete at 40, but does not state a preference. He also notes that the fight could go to decision and includes it in a totals parlay (over 4.5 rounds), but does not pick a winner.
Paul likes Holly Holm to win but is hesitant due to the -240 price and Holm's age (40). He notes Holm's striking and improved wrestling, but says he doesn't love the moneyline. He is interested in sprinkling on Holm round 4 (+2500) and round 5 (+3000) if Vieira shows up like she did against Yana Kunitskaya, as Holm could finish her late.
The MMA Guru picks Holly Holm, citing her superior striking, conditioning, and athleticism. He thinks Ketlen Vieira lacks KO power and will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He predicts Holm will lose the first round but win the next four via decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 113 of 263 | 42% | 156 of 313 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 122 of 276 | 44% | 145 of 302 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 14 of 38 | 36% | 18 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 16 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:52 | |
| 2 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 29 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 21 of 54 | 38% | 21 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 20 of 55 | 36% | 28 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 24 of 57 | 42% | 26 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 4 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 20 of 43 | 46% | 50 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 31 of 54 | 57% | 44 of 70 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 | |
| 5 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 30 of 73 | 41% | 31 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 33 of 73 | 45% | 38 of 78 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Vieira | 113 of 263 | 42% | 95 of 243 | 14 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 105 of 254 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 122 of 276 | 44% | 52 of 175 | 60 of 88 | 10 of 13 | 110 of 260 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketlen Vieira | 14 of 38 | 36% | 12 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 13 of 38 | 34% | 8 of 24 | 4 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 13 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ketlen Vieira | 29 of 54 | 53% | 24 of 48 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 21 of 54 | 38% | 14 of 42 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 21 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ketlen Vieira | 20 of 55 | 36% | 18 of 52 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 24 of 57 | 42% | 4 of 28 | 15 of 24 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 54 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Ketlen Vieira | 20 of 43 | 46% | 16 of 39 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 38 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 31 of 54 | 57% | 8 of 27 | 21 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 45 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Ketlen Vieira | 30 of 73 | 41% | 25 of 68 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 33 of 73 | 45% | 18 of 54 | 14 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 70 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
At long last, we have reached the main event. It’s been a journey tonight. Vieira (11-2, 5-2 UFC) will try to get back in the win column against former champ Tate (19-7, 6-4 UFC). The cage commander for this final fight of the night is referee Jason Herzog, and both with an eye on a crack at the bantamweight belt in the future touch hands to start things out. Vieira captures the center of the cage in the early going, but they keep a very safe range from the other to not land punches or kicks. They take turns following the other, until Vieira sits down with a right hand to smack Tate in the face. Tate tries to jab the body a few times, and Vieira is there to pop her with a left hand over the top. Tate swings, misses, and gets countered by the Brazilian. Vieira sticks out a crisp jab, and her range is giving Tate pause at how to get in on her. When Tate jumps forward into a one-two, Vieira swats it out of the way and dances back when Tate aims a kick at her leg. Tate appears jittery as she hops back and forth to try to get in on Vieira, throwing a single front kick to the body. Vieira tags Tate with a right hand when Tate closes in on her, and the former champ lands a pair of successful punches. Caught celebrating her work a little too long, Vieira counters her with heavier blows before Tate can escape. The distance between the two is vast, and Tate resorts to staggering and stutter-stepping her way in. Tate chases Vieira down and slugs her in the face with a combination, and when Vieira tries to answer her with strikes of her own, Tate ties her up and presses her into the wall. Although Vieira separates, Tate knees her once to the body. Tate ducks a punch combination to push Vieira back into the wire, and like before, Vieira is able to separate without issue. From a distance, Vieira shoots in for a takedown, and Tate is able to stop it from succeeding. They end the round in an awkward position with Tate’s hand on her foe’s backside.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Round 2
A tense exchange begins the second round, and Vieira lands cleanly on Tate’s left eye, forcing some reddening and immediate swelling. Tate pays it no mind as she kicks Vieira in the head, but it is only a glancing blow as the Brazilian rolls with it. Tate keeps reaching out to try to get in on her opponent, and she eats a Vieira punch so that she can score a solid right hand. The former champ plants the fall of her foot on Vieira’s torso, interrupting Vieira from landing a strike. Tate winds up with a stiff right hand, nailing Vieira and forcing her to reel. In response, Vieira scores a left hand down the pipe. Vieira chops at the leg, and they both start trading heavy leather in front of one another. Tate lands, and Vieira is stuck countering instead of leading the exchanges. This allows Tate to land on her first before replying. Tate connects with a big kick to Vieira’s face, and she sees that it has done some damage as she follows it with a chain of punches. Tate strings together a few one-twos, and Vieira shakes it off and lands her own thudding left hook on the side of Tate’s head. The woman formerly known as “Takedown” attempts one in the open cage, and Vieira stuffs it without issue. She tries again, and Vieira stops that one as well and separates. Tate walks Vieira down with kicks and punches, while not appearing too worried about the single counters that come back at her. Tate scores with a pair of clean right hands, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Round 3
Tate comes out firing to start off the second round, surprising the Brazilian early with a short blitz of blows. Backing away before the counters follow suit, Tate changes things up with an inside leg kick and then one on the outside. Vieira leans into a left hand, and after a lull in the action, Tate reaches out with a left hand to stop a punch and she pokes Vieira square in the eyeball. Herzog acknowledges this and brings in the doctor, and after a minute to clear things out, Vieira is ready to go again. Tate wants to capitalize on this accident by chasing Vieira down with jabs and follow-up right hands. Tate keeps a low stance, and she punches the body while Vieira is sitting firmly on counters. Tate punches, slips the response and jabs out again. Tate gives chase, and a big right hand gets caught under Vieira’s armpit. Tate lands a right, tries to clinch up and eats a short right hand for her effort. Tate goes up high with a kick, and when it collides off of Vieira’s guard, Vieira aims a right hand down the middle. Tate advances, and Vieira swings a pair of looping hooks to keep Tate honest. The former champ lands a single strike, while Vieira’s prepared counter of an uppercut and a right hand knocks Tate back. The Brazilian lands cleanly in another exchange, forcing Tate to change levels and pursue a takedown. Vieira defends it well and separates without going down to her knees. When Vieira gets up, Tate meets her outstretched leg with a kick, and Vieira lances her with a right hand in a sharp retort. Tate rushes forward to clinch her up to end the round, and she holds on to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Round 4
They meet and touch gloves in the center of the cage to initiate the championship rounds. Tate starts off aggressively, chasing her opponent down and landing punches. Tate clubs her opponent with a crisp right hand, and she escapes when Vieira sets up a counter. The Brazilian lands a few punches from a distance, and they trade heavily suddenly. Tate mixes things up with a takedown attempt, and she finally hits it and gets Vieira down. As “Fenomeno” stands up, Tate takes her back and looks to hit a mat return by tripping Vieira down. Clinched up, Tate gives up on the takedown entry so that she can land short strikes to the body and head. Staying tight keeps Tate away from eating any counters, and she presses her full body weight on her opponent that had never before fought beyond the third round. Vieira grits her teeth and pushes Tate away, and she starts lunging out with jabs. Tate marks her up with a big punch, and Vieira blasts her right back. Both women wear it well, and Tate kicks Vieira in the body from afar. Tate lands a few punches before coming in to clinch, and she knees Vieira in the body once. Vieira gives several punches back to the midsection, until Tate has had enough of that and pushes away. A Tate leg kick is met with a straight left hand, and Vieira catches Tate coming in with a string of punches. Vieira loads up on a right hand, and she elbows Tate when Tate tries to clinch. Vieira welcomes the clinch again in the open cage, as she repeatedly punches Tate in the side as she did before. Tate holds on tight with a clinch, and she releases a knee to the head. Another knee scores for the former champ, who ends the round in the Thai clinch.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Round 5
The bantamweights touch hands and then come in to hug to commence the last round. Vieira lets her hands go when they start fighting, and she connects cleanly with power punches as Tate looks to be safe. They come together in a clinch, and Tate works the body before Vieira separates. Vieira tags her opponent with an uppercut and a left hand, and Tate is forced to back off and gather her thoughts. When she does, the ex-champ kicks the body and then tries to get a knee off to the chest. Tate kicks the body, but Vieira is there to bang with her as she starts throwing hard. As Tate backs off, Vieira leans on a long jab, and she busts Tate’s nose open with a powerful knee and a few punches up top. Tate misses on one-twos as Vieira appears to be the fresher, more composed woman right now. Tate springs back and forth, jabbing out but not throwing nearly as much as she did before the nose got cracked. Tate sneaks a right hand over the top, but Vieira throws three back at her that are much heavier. They trade single jabs, and Tate steps forward into a one-two that knocks Vieira back. Vieira returns fire with jabs that continue to pound into Tate’s bloodied nose, and the former champion’s face has transformed into a crimson mask. Hardly recognizable, Tate does not care, as she continues to swing punches while Vieira is tight and crisp with her boxing. The jabs have shut Tate’s left eye as well as making her nose bleed furiously, and Tate marches on and kicks her in the side. Tate continues to pour it on as Vieira stays on her bicycle, successfully scoring with laser-accurate strikes that barely register for Tate. The fight comes to an end after 25 minutes of action, and it could be anyone’s guess who wins this fight based on how close most of the rounds were. UFC Fight Night 198, and a consecutive weekend stretch of 10 UFC cards, comes to an end with an event that brought 10 decisions in 11 bouts. We all could use a week off, and we will have it. When the UFC returns in December, it will be on ESPN for U.S. audiences with a barnburner of a main event between Rob Font and Jose Aldo. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (48-47 Vieira)
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (48-47 Vieira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (48-47 Tate)
The Official Result
Ketlen Vieira def. Miesha Tate via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
Angelo picks Ketlen Vieira, citing her power, size, and solid takedown defense (92%). He notes Miesha Tate's striking is poor and she relies on takedowns, but Vieira has stuffed takedowns from Olympic wrestler Sarah McMahon. He expects Vieira to win by decision or late stoppage, and placed a moneyline bet at even money (+100). He also mentions live betting opportunities.
Big Brady picks Miesha Tate to win by late finish (4th or 5th round). He notes that Ketlen Vieira has never fought five rounds and tends to slow down in the third round, as seen in fights against Eubanks and Kanutsukai. He believes Tate's improved striking and wrestling will allow her to survive early and take over as Vieira fades. He sees a late stoppage as very live.
Cody believes Miesha Tate is undervalued as a slight underdog. He points to Tate's championship pedigree, improved striking, and excellent conditioning for a five-round fight. He highlights Ketlen Vieira's history of gassing in the third round of her fights, including against Yana Kunitskaya where she was out-struck 44-7. Cody argues that Tate's wrestling is good enough to stuff takedowns and that if the fight stays standing, Tate has the advantage. He expects Tate to take over in rounds four and five as Vieira fades.
Daniel Levi picks Ketlen Vieira despite her history of mental lapses and cardio issues. He notes that Vieira has superior skills across the board, including judo and power, but worries about her hitting a wall in later rounds. He believes Miesha Tate is stiff and slow, and that Vieira has no pressure on her in this fight. However, he acknowledges Tate's toughness and comeback ability, making this a hesitant pick.
Lock sees this as a classic early Vera vs late Tate fight. He thinks Vera gasses badly after round two, and Tate will take over with takedowns and top control. He notes Tate is hunting a finish and might get it late. Lock likes the under 4.5 rounds at +140 and Tate inside the distance at +375. He also sprinkled Tate round 4 and round 5 props.
Paul agrees with Cody's assessment, noting that Vieira's gas tank is a major concern, especially in a five-round fight. He references the Yana Kunitskaya fight where Vieira missed weight and gassed hard at the end of round three. Paul believes that if Vieira cannot put Tate away early, Tate will take over late. He also mentions that this could be a good live bet opportunity if Vieira slows down in round three and Tate is still available at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate over Ketlen Vieira. He notes that Vieira slows down in later rounds, as seen against Yana Kunitskaya and Sijara Eubanks. He highlights Tate's championship experience, composure, and conditioning. He expects a stalemate on the feet early, but Tate to win scrambles and land ground and pound in the later rounds, finishing with a fourth-round TKO.
Macy Chiasson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ailín Pérez | 0 | 27 of 38 | 71% | 68 of 83 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 7:36 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 41 of 74 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 2 | 3:51 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ailín Pérez | 0 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 10 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 24 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 2:48 | |
| 2 | Ailín Pérez | 0 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 25 of 35 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 1 of 14 | 7% | 13 of 28 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 | |
| 3 | Ailín Pérez | 0 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 33 of 37 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:21 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ailín Pérez | 27 of 38 | 71% | 14 of 19 | 9 of 13 | 4 of 6 | 8 of 15 | 10 of 13 | 9 of 10 |
| Macy Chiasson | 8 of 23 | 34% | 4 of 16 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ailín Pérez | 6 of 7 | 85% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 |
| Macy Chiasson | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Ailín Pérez | 13 of 20 | 65% | 4 of 7 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 11 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
| Macy Chiasson | 1 of 14 | 7% | 0 of 10 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ailín Pérez | 8 of 11 | 72% | 6 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 |
| Macy Chiasson | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is shocked that Ailín Pérez is only a -165 favorite, believing she should be a -300 favorite. He highlights Pérez's relentless takedowns and pressure, noting that Macy Chiasson gets taken down easily and has been on a losing skid. He expects Pérez to shoot takedowns and win a decision, especially with the Mexican judges favoring aggression.
Big Brady picks Ailín Pérez but expresses hesitation due to elevation concerns and Pérez's history of gassing. He compares Macy Chiasson to 'female Phil Rowe,' noting she is big but ineffective and can be controlled on the ground. He believes Pérez can take Chiasson down and win the first two rounds, but the third could be sketchy. He predicts a decision win.
Cody agrees, noting Chiasson's weight cut issues and tendency to fade. He highlights Pérez's strong top game and expects a decision win. He suggests waiting for weigh-ins to potentially get better odds on Pérez.
Connor picks Pérez, noting that Chiasson is breakable and lacks durability. He points out that Chiasson's wins often come when she is confident, but she tends to fade or get finished. Pérez is tough and knows how to win, making her the safer pick despite Chiasson's finishing ability.
Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.
The host is betting on Chiasson despite her inconsistency because the odds are too wide. He believes Chiasson is better than Pérez everywhere: she has a huge size and reach advantage, is a better striker and grappler, and has superior cardio. However, Chiasson has self-destructive tendencies and bad fight IQ, making her unreliable. The host caps the fight at 50/50 because Chiasson only shows up half the time, but at +149, the value is too good to pass up. He also notes Pérez's cardio may suffer at high altitude.
James favors Pérez due to her wrestling and top control, which should neutralize Chiasson's striking. He notes Chiasson's confidence issues and tendency to wilt when pressured. James predicts Pérez wins by decision, though he admits bias as he knows Pérez personally.
The host picks Macy Chiasson as an underdog, surprised that Pérez is -185. He believes Chiasson is stronger and lands more damage, while Pérez relies on grinding top control. He expects Chiasson to defend takedowns and land the better strikes, winning a decision. He notes Chiasson's recent losing streak but thinks she matches up well.
Paul expects Pérez to use her wrestling to control Chiasson, who struggles with weight cuts and cardio at altitude. He sees a decision win for Pérez and recommends waiting for weigh-ins to confirm Chiasson's condition.
The MMA Guru picks Ailín Pérez, trusting her takedown entries and physicality. He notes that Macy Chiasson looked bad in her last fight against Irene Aldana, and he believes Pérez can take her down and control the ground. He predicts a 29-28 decision win, acknowledging that Pérez has been improving and has a strong build for the division.
Zane picks Pérez because she is mentally consistent, has a clear winning game plan, and sticks to it. He notes that Chiasson is bigger and more powerful but breaks down mentally and physically. Pérez's takedown game and high motor should wear on Chiasson, who has a weak core and struggles with leverage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 54 of 118 | 45% | 91 of 158 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 3:43 |
| Yana Santos | 0 | 65 of 124 | 52% | 115 of 176 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Macy Chiasson | 0 | 14 of 33 | 42% | 24 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yana Santos | 0 | 31 of 50 | 62% | 40 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:49 | |
| 2 | Macy Chiasson | 0 | 25 of 50 | 50% | 32 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| Yana Santos | 0 | 31 of 52 | 59% | 55 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Macy Chiasson | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 35 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Yana Santos | 0 | 3 of 22 | 13% | 20 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macy Chiasson | 54 of 118 | 45% | 25 of 76 | 25 of 35 | 4 of 7 | 24 of 81 | 25 of 29 | 5 of 8 |
| Yana Santos | 65 of 124 | 52% | 29 of 74 | 31 of 43 | 5 of 7 | 29 of 73 | 36 of 51 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Macy Chiasson | 14 of 33 | 42% | 5 of 19 | 7 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 26 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Yana Santos | 31 of 50 | 62% | 10 of 25 | 20 of 22 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 25 | 21 of 25 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Macy Chiasson | 25 of 50 | 50% | 9 of 31 | 14 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 34 | 15 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
| Yana Santos | 31 of 52 | 59% | 19 of 36 | 9 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 28 | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Macy Chiasson | 15 of 35 | 42% | 11 of 26 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 21 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 8 |
| Yana Santos | 3 of 22 | 13% | 0 of 13 | 2 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 20 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo likes Yana Santos as a plus-185 underdog. He thinks Macy Chiasson has abandoned her Muay Thai style for grappling, which plays into Yana's strengths as a good striker with good footwork and range management. He notes that in Las Vegas, takedowns don't score well, so empty takedowns won't help Macy. He also mentions a potential plus-3.5 spread bet.
Big Brady is confident in Macy Chiasson, noting that Yana Santos is very bad on the bottom and has been knocked out multiple times. He believes Chiasson can get takedowns and finish the fight with ground and pound or a submission. He acknowledges that Chiasson struggled against Ketlen Vieira, but attributes that to Vieira's elite takedown defense. He predicts a third-round submission for Chiasson.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Santos because Chiasson's offensive piling up is a thin veneer that collapses when things go wrong. He expects Chiasson to crash into the clinch and get bullied on the fence, as she does when she is not the stronger fighter. He also notes that Santos is a neutralizer who can break through Chiasson's game.
Chiasson missed weight again, and the host sees this as an opportunity for Santos to take advantage with her striking advantage and good takedown defense, running away with the fight on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Macy Chiasson, citing her physicality and size advantage. He notes that Yana Santos lacks a logical path to victory and Chiasson's pressure and clinch work should be enough. He predicts a 29-28 decision.
Zane picks Santos because Chiasson's success depends on being bigger and stronger than her opponent, and when she is not, she looks weak and collapses. He notes that Santos is big and awkward, and can keep the fight at her range or be competitive inside physically. He also points out that Santos has beaten Ketlen Vieira and Misha Tate, while Chiasson lost to Vieira and would likely lose to Tate.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 28 of 64 | 43% | 106 of 174 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 10:06 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 22 of 43 | 51% | 52 of 77 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 18 of 48 | 37% | 29 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 18 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 39 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:47 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 9 of 10 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 38 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:13 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 25 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Vieira | 28 of 64 | 43% | 25 of 60 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 15 of 47 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 11 |
| Macy Chiasson | 22 of 43 | 51% | 8 of 25 | 6 of 9 | 8 of 9 | 20 of 39 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketlen Vieira | 18 of 48 | 37% | 15 of 44 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 13 of 43 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Macy Chiasson | 17 of 31 | 54% | 5 of 16 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 8 | 17 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ketlen Vieira | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ketlen Vieira | 8 of 12 | 66% | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 7 |
| Macy Chiasson | 5 of 11 | 45% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chiasson (-118), Vieira (-102)
Round 1
What was once a likely bantamweight title eliminator has become a featherweight fight of little import, thanks to Vieira (14-4, 8-4 UFC) being unable to get down to the 136-pound limit. Chiasson (10-3, 8-3 UFC), with eyes to the future, gladly accepts 25% of Vieira’s purse before getting to punch her in the face for her transgression. Referee Mark Smith stands by to keep things on the up-and-up, although the match still opens with the ladies clapping hands first. Vieira takes to the center of the Octagon, with Chiasson circling around her probing her with low kicks and jabs. The Louisiana native manages her distance well, staying active and not letting Vieira strike her. Chiasson fires up a head kick, and uses it as a way to open a left hand up. Vieira looks to counter, but Chiasson is out of range from everything besides a pair of body shots. Vieira sits down on a right hand, shaking Chiasson up a little and forcing her to reset. Chiasson goes for a spinning wheel kick that misses the mark significantly, and Vieira tracks her down and smashes her in the face with a ferocious right hand. Chiasson wears it well but is not a fan, scooting out of the way before Vieira can pin her down again. Chiasson prods the body with jabs and kicks, and Vieira counters with a right hand over the top. Vieira connects with a few fast hands, and when Chiasson clinches, she lays into her with another flurry of blows. Both women try to land elbows from up close, but they sway just enough to let them soar past one another. Vieira bullies Chiasson against the fencing, and Chiasson slowly but methodically fights her way out while using a knee to get some space. Vieira pushes her close again and back to the wall, and she punches her way out rather than glom on to the taller woman. Chiasson chips at the front leg a few times, and she catches Vieira on the temple with a long right hand. Vieira scores a combo of punches to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Round 2
The moment gloves are touched, Chiasson shoots in for a takedown. Vieira’s defense spikes them both on their faces, and she recovers just the faster to turn to the side to establish top position. The Brazilian hops a few times to get herself in the conventional guard, but she is intent on passing to somewhere better and clinging to an arm-triangle choke setup. Chiasson is wise to it and she fights back with elbows and even flirts with an armbar setup, but she is stifled when Vieira stays flatly pressed to her. Chiasson pushes off the hips, and she turns to a knee but inadvertently gives up her back. As she rolls, Chiasson finds herself still in Vieira’s clutches. Vieira gets herself back on top in the guard, smothering the American while not otherwise utilizing much offense. Vieira lands punches every so often, preferring to rack up control time while shutting down anything Chiasson can do. Chiasson slashes off her back with her elbow, and she scores two more when Vieira postures up. Vieira rides out the remainder of the round on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Round 3
Before the third round begins, Smith calls in a cutman to slice the tape off of Vieira’s glove. The two touch gloves, and Chiasson comes out shot out of a cannon. Punching her way into a single, Chiasson finds that the Brazilian is not about to go down and falls to her back. Vieira establishes herself on top again, and she embraces the grind immediately. It does not take Smith long to ask for more activity, with Vieira content to work the body with short strikes and remain busy enough to keep her position. Vieira sits up and drills Chiasson with a pair of punches that lead her corner to hoot and holler, and Chiasson fails to employ butterfly hooks to get some space. Vieira’s smothering ground control is sucking the energy out of the building, and when Chiasson attempts to escape, the Brazilian is there to shut her down completely. Smith again asks for Vieira to do more, and it is Chiasson who does some damage with a vicious elbow that rips open a cut on Vieira’s forehead. Chiasson uses the moment to explode to her feet, where she starts laying into Vieira with punches and elbows. Vieira tries to clinch, and Chiasson bails on it and leaps at her with lunging punches and kicks. Chiasson drills the Brazilian with exhausted one-twos, and her late onslaught may sway a judge or two because of the damage inflicted. The not-so-thrilling fight comes to an end.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (30-27 Vieira)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (30-27 Vieira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (30-27 Vieira)
The Official Result
Ketlen Vieira def. Macy Chiasson via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Angelo picks Ketlen Vieira, believing she can bully Macy Chiasson by closing the distance and negating Chiasson's length. He notes that Vieira lost to Kayla Harrison (potential champion) while Chiasson's win was due to a cut. He is cautious about betting on someone coming off a loss but would bet on Vieira as a dog if odds flip.
Big Brady picks Ketlen Vieira with low confidence, citing her elite takedown defense (88%) as the key factor. He notes that even Kayla Harrison struggled to take Vieira down. He believes Vieira is the better striker if the fight stays standing and may even take Chiasson down, as Chiasson has been taken down by lesser fighters. He expects a close decision.
Connor picks Chiasson for being crazy and aggressive, and because Vieira looks consistently uncomfortable on the feet. He notes that if Vieira cannot get takedowns, Chiasson could be the more aggressive clinch striker. However, he acknowledges the fight is low-level and hard to call.
Matt picks Macy Chiasson to win by decision. He values Chiasson's physicality and improving striking, which he believes will overcome Vieira's technical striking. He notes that Chiasson blends her striking with grappling effectively and sees value at -125, estimating her true odds around -150 to -185. He expects a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Macy Chiasson over Ketlen Vieira, citing Chiasson's volume, pressure, and physicality advantage. He criticizes Vieira's recent performance against Miesha Tate and believes Chiasson's grit will force a high-output fight. He worries about a potential submission from Vieira but overall favors Chiasson.
Zane picks Vieira because he believes she can out-wrestle and out-grapple Chiasson, and that her strength and top control will be decisive. He notes that Chiasson has improved but still struggles in the clinch and is easy to hit. However, he acknowledges that if Vieira cannot get takedowns, she will struggle due to her poor striking confidence.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 46 of 59 | 77% | 53 of 66 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 50 of 85 | 58% | 64 of 99 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Macy Chiasson | 0 | 42 of 52 | 80% | 47 of 57 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 37 of 62 | 59% | 50 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:28 | |
| 2 | Macy Chiasson | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 14 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macy Chiasson | 46 of 59 | 77% | 24 of 34 | 20 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 21 of 32 | 23 of 25 | 2 of 2 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 50 of 85 | 58% | 27 of 59 | 13 of 16 | 10 of 10 | 22 of 52 | 18 of 23 | 10 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Macy Chiasson | 42 of 52 | 80% | 20 of 28 | 20 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 27 | 23 of 25 | 0 of 0 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 37 of 62 | 59% | 21 of 44 | 13 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 41 | 18 of 21 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Macy Chiasson | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 13 of 23 | 56% | 6 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 7 | 3 of 11 | 0 of 2 | 10 of 10 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bueno Silva (-115), Chiasson (-105)
Round 1
With the 135-pound title picture in flux, the winner of Silva (10-3-1, 1 NC; 5-3-1, 1 NC UFC) and Chiasson (9-3, 7-3 UFC) could be next in line for a shot at gold—although Silva fell short her last time out vying for the title in an exceptionally dull affair. The 32-year-old bantamweights come together to touch gloves to start the fight all while referee Chris Tognoni prepares himself to officiate. Silva maintains the center of the cage while Chiasson strafes on the outside. Chiasson swings too hard with a right hand, resulting in Silva grabbing hold of her and clinching her to land a knee and an elbow. Chiasson separates and reaches out with a left hook, and on a second effort she misses with the same strike as a body kick belts her in the ribs. Silva kicks the front leg, sticks out a right hand and evades a counter. Silva plants the ball of her foot on Chiasson’s chest, fires a head kick off from the other leg and punches her way into the clinch. When up close and personal, the Brazilian strikes with an elbow, and Chiasson answers her with one of her own. Silva breaks out of the tie-up after absorbing this strike, and she misses a body kick and keeps turning to slap Chiasson in the face with a wheel kick. Chiasson scores a front kick and a low kick, and she keeps her guard up to defend a head kick. Silva works the body with several punches and knees, and she pulls Chiasson down to knee her in the face a few times. Chiasson defends from a takedown and walks to the fence, and she uses body shots in close range with several uppercuts. Silva tries to go after the trip, and Chiasson stifles it and takes a few knees to the midsection. Silva gets off an elbow, and Chiasson rips the body and goes up high in a flurry. Silva backs herself up against the cage wall, and the two end up back in the clinch trading body blows. Chiasson lines up several knees to the body, and Silva pushes away and tags Chiasson with a right hand. Silva uses the opportunity to shoot for a double, and Chiasson sprawls against the wall but is tripped to a knee for a second. Chiasson springboards back up and presses Silva against the wire until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Round 2
The ladies clap hands, and Chiasson is ready to party and starts trading strikes. Head shots lead to other punches to the body and kicks, and she decides to take the fight down to the ground and succeeds. One single elbow from Chiasson slices a massive cut open above Silva’s right eyebrow. Chiasson stays tightly pressed to her opponent, and Silva throws her legs up in pursuit of an armbar. Chiasson remains stacked up on top until Silva abandons it, and Silva kicks her off of her. Chiasson stands and whips low kicks at the thigh from both sides, while Silva lays on her back with her hands behind her head bicycling upkicks. Chiasson decides to let Silva up, and Tognoni calls time to bring in the physician to observe the monstrous cut above her eyebrow. This appears to be a fight-ending cut, nearly two inches wide from one to the other. The doctor tells Tognoni the cut is extremely deep and that the blood will pour into her eye, and it already has as Silva’s face is covered with blood. Tognoni waves the fight off, and Silva is incensed, to the point that she climbs out of the cage and tries to plead her case to UFC head Dana White. He and others around him back away as she is leaking all over the place, and White tells her she needs to go see the doctor and get patched up. No matter her cries, this is a legitimate stoppage and way to win the fight—the head wound is no joke, much like the headliner of PFL last night.
The Official Result
Macy Chiasson def. Mayra Bueno Silva R2 1:58 via TKO (Doctor Stoppage)
Cody picks Chiasson, citing her size, wrestling, and cardio advantages. He notes that Bueno Silva has poor takedown defense and cardio issues, and that Chiasson has consistently scored takedowns against tough opponents. Cody believes Chiasson will use her clinch work and wrestling to wear on Bueno Silva, and that she can win a decision or possibly get a submission. He also mentions that Bueno Silva's best wins are over lower-tier competition and that she failed a drug test.
Daniel Vreeland picks Macy Chiasson because she has looked better recently, rounding out her game and improving her takedown defense. He notes that Chiasson is a better striker than Bueno Silva and has a significant reach advantage (six inches). Vreeland believes Bueno Silva's only path to victory is grinding, but Chiasson has the skills to stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing. He also cites Bueno Silva's poor gas tank in her last fight against Raquel Pennington as a concern.
Daniel believes Bueno Silva has championship potential, citing her power, calf kicks, and opportunistic submissions. He notes that her loss to Pennington came when she was sick and had a busted eardrum. He views Chiasson as having physical attributes but being flaky and prone to mistakes under pressure. He thinks Bueno Silva is meaner, more athletic, and has a higher trajectory.
Jeff Fox picks Macy Chiasson, echoing Vreeland's reasoning. He notes that Bueno Silva did not look good in her last fight and has gas tank concerns. Fox points out that Chiasson is way bigger, a better striker, and has improved her grappling. He also mentions that Chiasson's coach will keep her focused.
The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.
The host leans Chiasson, citing her strength and ability to grind on Bueno Silva. He notes Bueno Silva is dangerous with submissions off her back early, but if Chiasson can control her against the cage for the first 6-7 minutes and then take her down, she will have success. He mentions the line has moved from +180 to nearly pick'em, indicating confidence in Chiasson.
Paul picks Bueno Silva by submission, noting that her submission grappling is her biggest weapon. He acknowledges that Chiasson is bigger and has better wrestling, but believes Bueno Silva can catch her in a submission if the fight goes to the ground. Paul points out that Bueno Silva has a history of pulling off submissions from seemingly losing positions, and that the plus-370 odds for her by submission offer value.
The Guru picks Macy Chiasson as an underdog over Mayra Bueno Silva. He notes Chiasson's size and reach advantage, and that Bueno Silva looked terrible in her last fight. He believes Chiasson can muscle her around and out-hustle her. He also mentions Chiasson's flexibility in submissions and her competitive fight against Norma Dumont.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 29 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 5 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 2:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Macy Chiasson | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 29 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 5 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 2:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macy Chiasson | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 4 of 10 | 40% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Macy Chiasson | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 4 of 10 | 40% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo acknowledges Kianzad has a big striking advantage with her boxing, but she was unable to get up off the bottom in her last fight against Ketlen Vieira. Chiasson has added grappling to her game, taking down Norma Dumont six times and Irene Aldana three times. He thinks Chiasson will get takedowns and hold Kianzad down. He also suggests a plus 3.5 round bet on Kianzad as she might win a round on the feet.
Big Brady picks Macy Chiasson to win by decision. He expects Chiasson's size and physicality to be too much for Kianzad, allowing her to control the fight against the cage and on the mat. He references Kianzad's recent loss to Vieira as a blueprint.
Cody leans toward Macy Chiasson, citing her size, physicality, and grappling advantage. He notes she has choked Kianzad out before and is the better grappler. However, he is wary of the minus 240 line due to Chiasson's weight cut struggles and long layoff. He suggests waiting for weigh-ins before betting.
Lucrative James picks Macy Chiasson to win, likely by submission or ground-and-pound TKO. He notes that Chiasson is physically stronger, has better grappling, and finished Kianzad before on The Ultimate Fighter. He also questions whether Kianzad has lost a step and mentions Chiasson's recent performances against tough opponents. He expresses concern about Chiasson's weight cut but still expects her to win.
The host acknowledges Kianzad's striking advantage but believes she will be frustrated by Chiasson's grapple-heavy approach. He notes Chiasson's ability to bully opponents in the clinch and get fights to the ground easily, where she can rough up Kianzad from top position for the majority of the fight and win by decision.
Paul passes on betting this fight, noting Chiasson's weight cut issues and unimpressive recent performances. He mentions the bizarre liver kick loss to Aldana and questions her durability. He does not pick a winner and says it's a pass from a betting perspective.
The Guru picks Macy Chiasson, citing her physicality, power, and improved kicks. He notes she outmuscled Kianzad in their first fight and choked her out. He believes Chiasson has more options in the clinch and at range, and that Kianzad is purely a boxer with a reach disadvantage. He expects Chiasson to win by decision, possibly 30-27 or 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irene Aldana | 1 | 37 of 71 | 52% | 51 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 1:00 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 39 of 94 | 41% | 72 of 140 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 3:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irene Aldana | 0 | 25 of 47 | 53% | 29 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:55 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 13 of 33 | 39% | 13 of 33 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 2 | Irene Aldana | 0 | 9 of 12 | 75% | 16 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 17 of 39 | 43% | 50 of 85 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:51 | |
| 3 | Irene Aldana | 1 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 9 of 22 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irene Aldana | 37 of 71 | 52% | 24 of 57 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 9 | 19 of 51 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 17 |
| Macy Chiasson | 39 of 94 | 41% | 26 of 80 | 7 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 31 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 19 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irene Aldana | 25 of 47 | 53% | 14 of 35 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 13 of 33 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 11 |
| Macy Chiasson | 13 of 33 | 39% | 4 of 24 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Irene Aldana | 9 of 12 | 75% | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
| Macy Chiasson | 17 of 39 | 43% | 15 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 19 | |
| 3 | Irene Aldana | 3 of 12 | 25% | 2 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Macy Chiasson | 9 of 22 | 40% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Macy Chiasson, noting she can beat Irene Aldana the same way Holly Holm did: manage distance and use takedowns. He thinks Chiasson's length and grappling will be key, and she just took down Norma Dumont six times. He placed a small moneyline bet at +178, which has since moved to +160.
Big Brady picks Irene Aldana to win by decision, highlighting her 84% takedown defense and superior striking. He notes Macy Chiasson's path to victory relies on using her size and clinch, but Aldana's takedown defense is phenomenal and she has fought much better competition. He believes Aldana has more power and better cardio, and a finish wouldn't shock him.
Cody is confident in Irene Aldana, having already bet her at -161. He believes Aldana dominates on the feet, as Chiasson's wrestling is not highly rated and her cardio fades. He notes that Chiasson's move back to 135 could be problematic. He thinks Aldana's boxing and footwork will be too much.
Daniel Levi picks Irene Aldana but with low confidence. He notes Aldana's high output and power, but also her tendency to underperform in favored spots. He acknowledges Chiasson's physical advantages (height, reach) and improved wrestling, as seen against Dumont. Levi says he's been burnt by Aldana before and won't lay the chalk, but still sees her as the pick.
Jacob picks Irene Aldana, praising her composure and power. He notes she handled Yana Kunitskaya's pressure well and landed a fight-ending left hook. He thinks Chiasson does not like getting hit and will panic when Aldana lands. He believes Aldana will find the big shot and capitalize.
The host is very confident in Irene Aldana, expecting her to nullify Chiasson's clinch and grappling with excellent takedown defense. He believes Aldana's crisp striking will lead to a knockout in the second or third round. He calls -180 a gift.
Paul picks Aldana but with hesitation, noting that women's MMA is unpredictable. He acknowledges Chiasson's wrestling could be a factor if she takes Aldana down, but he believes Aldana's striking improvements and speed advantage will carry her. He is concerned about Aldana's 14-month layoff but thinks she has used the time well.
The MMA Guru picks Irene Aldana to win by 29-28 decision, based on the first two rounds. He expects Aldana to outbox Chiasson, landing more damaging blows. Chiasson will push Aldana against the cage, but Aldana will escape and land good shots. Chiasson may push pace in the third, but it will be too little too late. Aldana wins via unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 32 of 89 | 35% | 131 of 194 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 7:34 |
| Norma Dumont | 0 | 38 of 75 | 50% | 96 of 136 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Macy Chiasson | 0 | 19 of 57 | 33% | 19 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Norma Dumont | 0 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 21 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Macy Chiasson | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 42 of 62 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:13 |
| Norma Dumont | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 33 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 3 | Macy Chiasson | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 70 of 75 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 4:19 |
| Norma Dumont | 0 | 12 of 17 | 70% | 42 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macy Chiasson | 32 of 89 | 35% | 14 of 59 | 8 of 13 | 10 of 17 | 27 of 84 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Norma Dumont | 38 of 75 | 50% | 27 of 60 | 8 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 28 of 62 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Macy Chiasson | 19 of 57 | 33% | 9 of 38 | 3 of 6 | 7 of 13 | 19 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Norma Dumont | 16 of 41 | 39% | 14 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Macy Chiasson | 10 of 25 | 40% | 3 of 15 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 21 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Norma Dumont | 10 of 17 | 58% | 3 of 7 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 9 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Macy Chiasson | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Norma Dumont | 12 of 17 | 70% | 10 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dumont (-220), Chiasson (+180)
Round 1
In this unexpected 147-pound catchweight affair, this time, it is not Chiasson (7-2, 5-2 UFC) who tipped the scales above the featherweight limit. Instead, it is Dumont (7-1, 3-1 UFC), who continues her issue with weigh-ins as she could not find the bantamweight cap well either. Depending on the result, and due to the thinness of the division, the victor here could be up next for a crack at Amanda Nunes’ 145-pound throne. Referee Keith Peterson is on call for this nonsense-free title eliminator, and the fighters are intense and but still touch gloves to start things off. Chiasson keeps a wide berth and prods out with a front kick to the knee, and she switches things up with a high kick that gets blocked. Chiasson targets another high head kick, and wades forward with a pair of punches. They trade leg kicks, and Chiasson stays a little more active from distance as Dumont watches on. When Chiasson leaves a kick out too long, she gets knocked back from an overhand right. Chiasson fakes a level change, and Dumont is ready to meet her and delivers a right hand over the top. A front kick from Chiasson slaps into Dumont’s face, and Dumont tries and fails to toss out a leg kick. The pace is slow but deliberate, as Chiasson comes out with a body kick and a straight left hand. “The Immortal” charges and whiffs on a handful of punches, and she loads up with a right hand that makes Chiasson turn. Chiasson goes after another low kick, and Dumont smacks her again with a right hook. Dumont grabs hold of a clinch, and Chiasson breaks free and plants her left fist on Dumont’s jaw. Dumont shakes her head, but she absorbed the blow cleanly without reprisal. Dumont blocks a head kick, and she hunts for her overhand when Chiasson is kicking at her. Dumont reaches out with two punches, but Chiasson is out of range and dodges. Chiasson stings her with a right hand, and Dumont wobbles her knees and slings a right back her foe’s way. Chiasson steps in with a left hand, and she dodges and slips a right hand to hit a takedown as Dumont attempts to spin. The round ends right after the ladies hit the ground.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chiasson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Chiasson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Chiasson
Round 2
The featherweights clap hands to start off Round 2, and Chiasson is ready to throw a head kick. It partially gets through, and Dumont responds with a front kick only to get kicked back. Chiasson navigates at her own range, keeping Dumont guessing and staying active enough to shut down Dumont’s typical hard-charging offense. Dumont lands a solid right hand when getting kicked, and Chiasson slides back and chops at the knee with her shin. Chiasson keeps moving and has a leg kick checked, leading her to shoot in to get hold of a body lock and try to take the fight down. Tying Dumont up against the fence, Chiasson pursues a single down low, but the Brazilian stands tall and keeps herself on her feet. Chiasson muscles her down to the ground, and as Dumont leans forward to try to get up, Chiasson looks to take her back. Chiasson does not get her hooks in, and instead falls over when Dumont turns. Chiasson manages to fight her way back up again, not willing to stay grounded when Dumont plants her on her backside. Chiasson lands a few middling knees to the thigh as she holds Dumont in this position, and she grinds her foe until she trips her down. Chiasson falls to her back when trying to take her opponent down, and she gets back up when Dumont cannot hold her there. Chiasson knees Dumont in the chest as she clinches her up and pushes her to the wall, and the color commentators of Joe Rogan and Daniel Cormier relentlessly bash the ladies competing while essentially stating that they are nowhere near championship-level fighters. As they do, Chiasson tries for a trip, and she settles to lean heavily to keep Dumont pinned there until the disappointing round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chiasson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Chiasson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Chiasson
Round 3
There is a touch of gloves to start off the last round, and Dumont opens up with a left hand that rings Chiasson’s bell. The Brazilian continues her assault with a few punches that rattle Chiasson, and force Chiasson to take her down. Dumont gets back up, shoved to the wall, and dragged back down with a single from Chiasson. Dumont once more returns to her feet, and Chiasson holds on tight while trying to get her bearings back after getting tagged in the opening seconds. The crowd begins to loudly voice its disapproval as Chiasson grinds her foe into the wire, and Peterson asks them to keep working. Chiasson fails to get a takedown, but she settles for a knee up the middle and gets popped with a right hand. When eating that punch, Chiasson charges again to take her down. Dumont is only on her back for a few seconds before walking up the wall, and Chiasson hangs on to her in that position again. The crowd lets them have it as Chiasson embraces the grind, and Peterson lets them keep at it as Chiasson delivers a plethora of short knees to the thigh. Seeing that Peterson will not step in, Dumont tries for herself to score a knee up the middle. Chiasson goes for a trip, and it fails, allowing Dumont to fall on top of her. They both stand up, and Chiasson throws a head kick recklessly. While Chiasson has her leg in the air, Dumont gets off two stinging punches that rock Chiasson again. Chiasson dives desperately for a double, hurt again from the blows and totally fatigued, and all she can do is push Dumont to the wall. Chiasson allows control time to rack up as she hangs on, and Dumont gets hold of the neck and sets up a guillotine choke with seconds left in the round. Chiasson punches the thigh repeatedly to no effect, and the grueling, exhausting fight finally ends as they are clinched up.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dumont (29-28 Chiasson)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dumont (29-28 Chiasson)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dumont (29-28 Chiasson)
The Official Result
Macy Chiasson def. Norma Dumont via Split Decision (30-27, 28-29, 30-27)
Angelo picks Norma Dumont, liking her to crowd Macy and light her up in the pocket. He thinks Dumont will work takedowns against the cage but expects a striking match. He notes that the odds are wide and Dumont should be around -130, not -270.
Big Brady picks Norma Dumont to win by decision. He believes Dumont is the more well-rounded fighter with good striking and grappling. Chiasson has a size advantage in height and reach, but her takedown defense is a liability, as seen against Renaud and Lansberg. Dumont can mix in takedowns and control Chiasson on the mat. Brady thinks the line is wide but agrees Dumont should be the favorite. He expects a competitive fight on the feet but Dumont's path to victory is through takedowns and control.
Cody picks Norma Dumont but is not confident at -225. He notes that Chiasson is moving up to 145 and has defensive liabilities. Dumont has a slight grappling and striking advantage, and her technical boxing is sharper. However, Cody thinks the price is too high and that the fight is closer to a coin flip. He will keep an eye on weigh-ins.
Daniel Levi picks Norma Dumont confidently, citing her fundamentals, jab, leg kicks, and well-rounded game. He questions Chiasson's mental toughness and heart, noting she has been outworked despite size advantages. He expects Dumont to win a decision. However, he does not bet the fight because he does not want to lay -220.
The host picks Norma Dumont, believing she is the better striker and physically strong enough to negate Chiasson's bullying style. He notes Chiasson's success comes from being the bigger fighter, but Dumont is thick and strong. He expects Dumont to land the more significant strikes and possibly get a knockdown. He is not keen on betting Dumont at -220 but prefers the decision prop at +100. He also likes 'fight goes to decision' at -220.
Paul does not make a clear pick. He is torn on this fight and mentions liking the under 2.5 rounds at +180. He notes that Dumont has won by cage control and greasy decisions, but he doesn't love the fight. He does not express a preference for either fighter.
The MMA Guru picks Norma Dumont, praising her technical boxing as some of the best in women's MMA above strawweight. He notes she beat Felicia Spencer and had a close fight with Raquel Pennington. He believes Dumont will pick Chiasson apart at range for three rounds, winning 30-27. He mentions he bet on Dumont.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 45 of 79 | 56% | 61 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:09 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 26 of 86 | 30% | 64 of 126 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 24 of 38 | 63% | 37 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 15 of 48 | 31% | 48 of 83 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 21 of 41 | 51% | 24 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 11 of 38 | 28% | 16 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 45 of 79 | 56% | 22 of 48 | 20 of 28 | 3 of 3 | 38 of 71 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Macy Chiasson | 26 of 86 | 30% | 16 of 65 | 9 of 18 | 1 of 3 | 22 of 79 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 24 of 38 | 63% | 10 of 21 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 35 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Macy Chiasson | 15 of 48 | 31% | 11 of 39 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 21 of 41 | 51% | 12 of 27 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 36 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Macy Chiasson | 11 of 38 | 28% | 5 of 26 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Raquel Pennington but thinks the odds are too wide. He notes that Pennington is a grinder who uses cage control and pressure, but that Macy Chiasson uses her reach well and has good Muay Thai. He believes the small cage at the Apex may limit Chiasson's ability to circle, but still sees Chiasson as a live underdog. Angelo expects a boring win for Pennington but not a cakewalk.
Big Brady initially liked Pennington but changed his pick after learning the fight is at 145 lbs, which he believes massively favors Chiasson. He notes Chiasson's size, youth, and experience at featherweight, and expects her to use her height and reach to win a close decision. He mentions Pennington's takedown ability but thinks the weight class change is decisive.
Cody likes Chiasson as a dog, noting the fight is at 145 lbs which favors her. He points out that Pennington has looked disinterested since her title fight and has poor striking. Chiasson is bigger, stronger, and has better striking at range and in the clinch. Cody thinks Chiasson can win by outworking Pennington.
Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Raquel Pennington. He praises Pennington's grit, durability, and experience, noting she only loses to former champions. However, he points out that many of Pennington's wins are split decisions, making it a close fight. Levi is concerned about Chiasson's size and reach advantage at 145, and wonders if Pennington's clinch game will be less effective against a taller opponent. He thinks Chiasson could win if she has improved, but ultimately picks Pennington to edge out a decision.
Jacob picks Macy Chiasson, believing the UFC is setting her up to be a contender. He thinks the fight comes down to clinch work, and that Chiasson is bigger, more physical, and nastier than Pennington at this point. He expects Chiasson to win a dirty decision, possibly with a finish. Jacob notes that Chiasson has never been finished and has finishing ability herself.
The host picks Pennington by decision, citing her well-rounded game and experience. He notes that Chiasson relies on being physical and bullying, but if she can't do that, she succumbs. He expects Pennington to pull away in the later rounds and win a 15-minute fight. He likes the decision prop at +115.
Paul agrees with Chiasson, citing the reach advantage and the weight class change. He notes Pennington isn't big for 135, let alone 145, and Chiasson doesn't have to cut much weight. Paul thinks it's a 'dogger pass' and leans Chiasson.
The MMA Guru picks Raquel Pennington over Macy Chiasson, citing Pennington's physical strength and ability to bully Chiasson against the cage. He notes Pennington has good wins over Pannie Kianzad, Marion Reneau, and Irene Aldana. He was not impressed by Chiasson's performance against Reneau. He thinks Pennington is too strong and will control the fight.
Expert Picks (6)
Angelo picks Ketlen Vieira, believing she can bully Macy Chiasson by closing the distance and negating Chiasson's length. He notes that Vieira lost to Kayla Harrison (potential champion) while Chiasson's win was due to a cut. He is cautious about betting on someone coming off a loss but would bet on Vieira as a dog if odds flip.
Big Brady picks Ketlen Vieira with low confidence, citing her elite takedown defense (88%) as the key factor. He notes that even Kayla Harrison struggled to take Vieira down. He believes Vieira is the better striker if the fight stays standing and may even take Chiasson down, as Chiasson has been taken down by lesser fighters. He expects a close decision.
Connor picks Chiasson for being crazy and aggressive, and because Vieira looks consistently uncomfortable on the feet. He notes that if Vieira cannot get takedowns, Chiasson could be the more aggressive clinch striker. However, he acknowledges the fight is low-level and hard to call.
Matt picks Macy Chiasson to win by decision. He values Chiasson's physicality and improving striking, which he believes will overcome Vieira's technical striking. He notes that Chiasson blends her striking with grappling effectively and sees value at -125, estimating her true odds around -150 to -185. He expects a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Macy Chiasson over Ketlen Vieira, citing Chiasson's volume, pressure, and physicality advantage. He criticizes Vieira's recent performance against Miesha Tate and believes Chiasson's grit will force a high-output fight. He worries about a potential submission from Vieira but overall favors Chiasson.
Zane picks Vieira because he believes she can out-wrestle and out-grapple Chiasson, and that her strength and top control will be decisive. He notes that Chiasson has improved but still struggles in the clinch and is easy to hit. However, he acknowledges that if Vieira cannot get takedowns, she will struggle due to her poor striking confidence.
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