UFC Fight Night: dos Anjos vs. Lee · May 18, 2019 · Welterweight · Completed
UFC Fight Night: dos Anjos vs. Lee Next Fight
Age 41
Height 5' 8"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 33
Height 5' 9"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Rafael dos Anjos
3.48 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
3.23 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
1.95 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
54.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Kevin Lee
3.88 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
3.6 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
3.18 TD Avg
43.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Rafael dos Anjos - Fight History
LOSS vs Geoff Neal
TKO (knee injury) R1 1:30 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 1 18 of 30 60% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Rafael dos Anjos 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 1 18 of 30 60% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Rafael dos Anjos 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 18 of 30 60% 12 of 24 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 24 0 of 0 5 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 4 of 13 30% 2 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 18 of 30 60% 12 of 24 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 24 0 of 0 5 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 4 of 13 30% 2 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Angelo picks Geoff Neal but is not confident enough to bet. He notes Neal is younger, has good takedown defense and hands, and should win if the fight stays standing. However, he acknowledges RDA could get takedowns and grind out a decision. He will leave this fight alone due to the risk.

Will leave this fight alone; no bet.
"I think Jeff Neil wins... but I just don't have the nuts to bet on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Big Brady strongly favors Neal, calling it a bad matchup for RDA. He notes that RDA struggles at welterweight against bigger guys and that Neal has elite takedown defense (87%). He believes Neal is the much better striker with more power and that RDA won't be able to take him down. He predicts Neal wins by decision, stuffing takedowns and doing better work on the feet.

"give me Jeff Neil here I think he wins this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Cody leans toward Rafael dos Anjos as an underdog, noting that RDA's wrestling and cardio could neutralize Neal's striking. He points out that Neal has struggled against wrestlers like Neil Magny, and that RDA's takedown-heavy approach could frustrate Neal. However, Cody is hesitant because RDA is 40 and has lost to superior grapplers. He suggests a small play or pass.

"I feel like I'm leaning Rd but I feel like that's also a bad pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Geoff Neal

Connor picks Neal, agreeing that RDA at welterweight is not the same bully. He notes that RDA's game relies on being a physical bully, which he can't do at welterweight, and that Neal is capable of putting together moments of offense that win rounds. Connor also mentions that RDA is almost 40 and has a lot of mileage.

"And that is kind of my core read here against Jeff Neil is that RDA might have a lot of success running his kind of game against Jeff Neil. But if I have to think who is capable of putting …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Daniel Vreeland picks Geoff Neal to win, citing significant advantages in size, speed, and youth. He notes that Neal has faced much larger opponents recently and that RDA is a smaller fighter who may struggle with Neal's reach and takedown defense. Vreeland acknowledges Neal's inconsistency but believes this is a favorable matchup.

"give me Jeff me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Daniel Vreeland picks Neal, citing his size, youth, and recent competition against top welterweights. He notes that RDA's wrestling has dropped off significantly, giving up 19 takedowns in his last two fights. Vreeland believes Neal's speed and game plan will be too much for the aging RDA.

"give me the much bigger much younger hands of Steel Jeff Neil"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Jeff Fox also picks Neal, emphasizing RDA's declining wrestling. He notes that Neal has sneaky good wrestling and that RDA's takedown defense has worsened. Fox expects Neal to be faster on the feet and implement a better game plan.

higher than 64.5 significant strikes for Neal (Underdog fantasy pick)
"Jeff Neil gonna be faster on the feet going to put together a better game plan here uh I'll take him in this one"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Geoff Neal

Welterweight is not the best weight class for dos Anjos, and Neal should stop his takedowns and utilize his striking advantage. It wouldn't surprise me if Neal knocks dos Anjos out, but I lean with Neal winning on the scorecards.

Neal wins by decision (lean); possible knockout
"ultimately lean with Neil winning this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Paul picks Geoff Neal, believing his reach and boxing will keep the fight standing. He notes that RDA's wrestling has not been as effective at welterweight against bigger opponents. Paul thinks Neal can stuff takedowns and use his length to outpoint RDA. He is not highly confident but leans Neal.

"I will not be getting to RDA"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

The Guru picks Geoff Neal by TKO in the second round, arguing that Rafael dos Anjos at 39 is outmatched physically. He notes Neal's size, power, and takedown defense (citing the Belal Muhammad fight) will be too much for RDA. He believes RDA's only path is to brawl in the pocket, which favors Neal. The Guru predicts a vicious finish, possibly ending RDA's career.

TKO second round
"I'll say second round TKO for Geoff Neal potentially in the first though I can see a real nasty finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Geoff Neal

Zane picks Neal because RDA at welterweight is not the same relentless pressure fighter he was at lightweight; he's more reluctant to apply pressure and gets hit harder. Neal is a puncher who can keep his output up and win rounds, even if he gets stalled for one. Zane notes that RDA's wrestling is deteriorating and he's almost 40.

"So yeah, take it, Neil. Same. But, uh, it's a good fight. Like it is, it is a fight where if RDA can get Neil down, he might just be able to like, to sub him out, you know, he's …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Geoff Neal

Zane clearly favored Neal, describing the fight as a 'sad days fight' for RDA. He noted that RDA's game of physical bullying and pressure doesn't work at welterweight because guys are too big and hit too hard. Zane pointed out that RDA got crushed by the first shot and blew out his knee, calling it an old man way to lose. He praised Neal's performance but remains skeptical about Neal's title prospects.

"jeff neil hafel dos angeles another real sad days fight um i don't i've never liked rda at welter weight"
LOSS vs Mateusz Gamrot
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 57 of 102 55% 111 of 163 11 of 19 57% 0 0 7:01
Rafael dos Anjos 1 36 of 78 46% 39 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 19 of 34 55% 40 of 61 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:35
Rafael dos Anjos 1 11 of 19 57% 14 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 10 of 18 55% 28 of 36 5 of 9 55% 0 0 2:40
Rafael dos Anjos 0 12 of 25 48% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Mateusz Gamrot 0 28 of 50 56% 43 of 66 4 of 6 66% 0 0 1:46
Rafael dos Anjos 0 13 of 34 38% 13 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 57 of 102 55% 48 of 90 9 of 12 0 of 0 46 of 88 6 of 8 5 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 36 of 78 46% 24 of 61 5 of 9 7 of 8 26 of 67 7 of 8 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 19 of 34 55% 17 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 25 4 of 5 3 of 4
Rafael dos Anjos 11 of 19 57% 9 of 14 1 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 16 2 of 2 1 of 1
2 Mateusz Gamrot 10 of 18 55% 6 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 15 1 of 2 1 of 1
Rafael dos Anjos 12 of 25 48% 9 of 21 2 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 20 3 of 4 1 of 1
3 Mateusz Gamrot 28 of 50 56% 25 of 45 3 of 5 0 of 0 26 of 48 1 of 1 1 of 1
Rafael dos Anjos 13 of 34 38% 6 of 26 2 of 2 5 of 6 10 of 31 2 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo is very confident in Mateusz Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling and pace. He believes RDA has no wrestling defense and will spend much of the fight on his back. He thinks Gamrot will shoot takedowns, grind, and win. He also mentions over 2.5 rounds as a good bet.

Over 2.5 rounds should be good.
"I'm very confident in gamrat here I think he is worth the price tag and uh we're going to see an age and evolution of the sport here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision. He notes that RDA is 39 and has struggled with wrestling, and that Gamrot has the cardio to shoot many takedowns. He expects the striking to be competitive, but Gamrot's takedowns will seal each round.

win by decision
"I'm going gam Rod here gamr to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Cody thinks RDA is being priced as if he's completely washed, but he believes RDA is better at 155 and that the Luque loss was due to size. He thinks RDA's striking and jiu-jitsu make him competitive, and at plus money, he's worth a look.

"I think it's RDA is a dogger pass spot for me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Daniel is confident Gamrot will win, citing his wrestling and low single takedowns. He notes RDA was outwrestled by Vicente Luque, who is not known for offensive wrestling, and expects Gamrot to dominate on the ground. However, he dislikes the minus 450 price and says he would only bet if the price improves.

"I got gamr here it's just this price is terrible if this price goes down a little bit I mean gamr should be I say should be a safe parlay"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot is a high-level wrestler who should be too strong, fast, and young for the aging dos Anjos. Dos Anjos has shown declining takedown defense, as seen in his loss to Vicente Luque where he was controlled for 11 minutes. Gamrot will likely get the fight to the ground and grind on dos Anjos, wearing him down. I expect Gamrot to win a decision, as finishing a durable veteran like dos Anjos is tough. The prop 'Gamrot by decision' is the best way to attack this fight without taking too much chalk.

Gamrot by decision, over 2.5 rounds
"gamrat more than worthy at minus 400 here I think he's going to be too strong too fast uh obviously younger uh and the better overall wrestler here which will allow him to get this fight to the ground and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul disagrees, pointing out that RDA has historically struggled against wrestlers and has been taken down repeatedly. He thinks Gamrot's chain wrestling, cardio, and durability will overwhelm RDA, who will likely lose the first two rounds and be unable to come back.

"I got to go with matus gamron"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing his superior technical wrestling, strength, and versatility compared to RDA. He notes the three-round format benefits Gamrot's pace, and that RDA is 39 and has talked about retirement. He also highlights that Gamrot trains with Dustin Poirier, which should help his preparation. He predicts Gamrot will ragdoll RDA and win a decision or late finish.

"I'm going to go with Matas gam over rapael Doos"
LOSS vs Vicente Luque
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vicente Luque 0 72 of 141 51% 138 of 221 8 of 11 72% 0 0 12:01
Rafael dos Anjos 0 66 of 136 48% 94 of 170 2 of 7 28% 1 0 3:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vicente Luque 0 16 of 32 50% 20 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:30
Rafael dos Anjos 0 17 of 37 45% 20 of 41 0 of 3 0% 1 0 1:20
2 Vicente Luque 0 11 of 26 42% 32 of 48 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:23
Rafael dos Anjos 0 10 of 22 45% 14 of 26 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:35
3 Vicente Luque 0 18 of 39 46% 27 of 49 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:51
Rafael dos Anjos 0 11 of 27 40% 12 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:53
4 Vicente Luque 0 10 of 18 55% 26 of 42 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:40
Rafael dos Anjos 0 9 of 15 60% 20 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
5 Vicente Luque 0 17 of 26 65% 33 of 45 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:37
Rafael dos Anjos 0 19 of 35 54% 28 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vicente Luque 72 of 141 51% 48 of 115 17 of 19 7 of 7 60 of 127 8 of 8 4 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 66 of 136 48% 42 of 108 19 of 23 5 of 5 38 of 105 26 of 27 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vicente Luque 16 of 32 50% 9 of 24 4 of 5 3 of 3 11 of 25 1 of 1 4 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 17 of 37 45% 8 of 26 6 of 8 3 of 3 9 of 28 8 of 9 0 of 0
2 Vicente Luque 11 of 26 42% 7 of 22 3 of 3 1 of 1 10 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 10 of 22 45% 4 of 16 5 of 5 1 of 1 3 of 15 7 of 7 0 of 0
3 Vicente Luque 18 of 39 46% 12 of 32 4 of 5 2 of 2 16 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 11 of 27 40% 8 of 23 3 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Vicente Luque 10 of 18 55% 6 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 9 of 15 60% 5 of 10 4 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 0
5 Vicente Luque 17 of 26 65% 14 of 23 2 of 2 1 of 1 16 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 19 of 35 54% 17 of 33 1 of 1 1 of 1 12 of 26 5 of 5 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Angelo picks dos Anjos, citing his grappling and takedowns as the key. He notes Luque has poor takedown defense (except against Belal) and dos Anjos is a high-level grappler. He already has a moneyline bet at -125.

Already bet moneyline at -125
"I have a money line on Rafael dos anos at minus 125"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Big Brady picks Vicente Luque to win by third-round knockout, but calls it the sketchiest fight on the card. He notes RDA's age (38) and size disadvantage at welterweight, but also Luque's recent knockout loss and brain hemorrhage concerns. He believes Luque's constant pressure and power will eventually catch RDA, but admits there are red flags on both sides. He says he wants nothing to do with the fight.

third round knockout
"I'll say Vicente Luce uh touches the chin of RDA at some point I'll say third round knockout for Vicente Luce but again a very very sketchy fight overall"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Cody picks Luque at plus money, arguing that dos Anjos is a former lightweight who has struggled at welterweight (2-5 in last 7). He notes Luque's strong get-up game against Belal Muhammad and believes dos Anjos won't be able to take him down consistently. He also mentions Luque's camp at Kill Cliff FC with Gilbert Burns preparing him for the wrestling. However, he acknowledges Luque's damage accumulation and brain hemorrhage history but still sees him edging out a five-round decision.

"I gotta go with Vincente Luca and the plus money and again I think that kill Cliff FC will have him ready and he'll be working with Gilbert Burns"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

James picks RDA over Luque, citing Luque's brutal knockout loss to Neal and subsequent brain issues as major negatives. He sees the striking as fairly even but gives RDA a grappling advantage, noting RDA can lean on takedowns and jiu-jitsu. James acknowledges Luque's size and age advantage but feels the unknowns around Luque's recovery tilt the fight toward RDA. He is not yet committed to betting, saying he will discuss with his team.

James mentions Luque's brain surgery as a concern, but no specific prop bets or odds are stated.
"I'm on RDA here... I think that on the feet it's fairly close... RDA has the grappling to lean on when things get tough."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Dos Anjos is durable and blends striking and grappling well. Luque is on a two-fight losing streak and had brain bleeding after his last KO. Dos Anjos should be able to mix in takedowns and combinations to outwork Luque over 25 minutes. Luque may have success striking, but dos Anjos's versatility will be too much.

dos Anjos by decision
"I like those sanyos throughout this fight I think he does good enough work over 25 minutes to get his hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Paul leans toward dos Anjos, citing his better cardio over five rounds and ability to mix in wrestling. He expresses concern about Luque's brain hemorrhage in 2022 and doesn't want to put money behind someone with that history. He acknowledges the fight is close and understands Cody's points about dos Anjos' wrestling not being as effective against bigger welterweights, but slightly favors RDA.

"ever so slightly I'm gonna lean to Javier De Los Angeles who I think has the better cardio over the course of five rounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

The MMA Guru picks Vicente Luque over Rafael dos Anjos, despite Luque's brain hemorrhage, assuming it was mild and he had a year off. He argues Luque is bigger, more powerful, has a better chin, and is hard to finish on the ground. He doubts RDA's ability to control Luque for five rounds and predicts Luque will finish RDA in round three by D'Arce choke.

Finish in round three by D'Arce choke
"I'm gonna go with Vicente UK getting a finish maybe drops RDA in round three and dash choke finishes him"
Submission (neck crank) R2 3:20 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael dos Anjos 0 14 of 29 48% 61 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Bryan Barberena 0 20 of 25 80% 36 of 41 4 of 6 66% 2 0 6:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael dos Anjos 0 9 of 19 47% 25 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bryan Barberena 0 16 of 20 80% 30 of 34 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:06
2 Rafael dos Anjos 0 5 of 10 50% 36 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Bryan Barberena 0 4 of 5 80% 6 of 7 3 of 4 75% 1 0 2:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael dos Anjos 14 of 29 48% 6 of 18 4 of 6 4 of 5 10 of 25 2 of 2 2 of 2
Bryan Barberena 20 of 25 80% 3 of 8 17 of 17 0 of 0 3 of 8 3 of 3 14 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael dos Anjos 9 of 19 47% 1 of 9 4 of 5 4 of 5 8 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bryan Barberena 16 of 20 80% 2 of 6 14 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 6 2 of 2 12 of 12
2 Rafael dos Anjos 5 of 10 50% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 2
Bryan Barberena 4 of 5 80% 1 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Angelo picks Rafael dos Anjos, calling him the better fighter everywhere: more technical striking, much better grappling, higher fight IQ, and higher level of competition. He notes RDA is 38 and coming off a KO loss, but trusts him to grapple early and often. He thinks Barberena's 44% takedown defense and lack of one-punch KO power (except against Lawler) make RDA the pick.

"RDA is going to be the pick I trust him to Grapple early I trust him to Grapple often and I think he's just gonna grind out another RDA style win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Big Brady is extremely confident in RDA, citing a massive step down in competition and a favorable stylistic matchup. He notes Barberena's poor takedown defense (55%) and defensive irresponsibility, and RDA's advantage everywhere. He expects RDA to win however he wants, predicting a decision but noting a finish is possible.

RDA wins by decision
"this is RDA all day... horrible horrible terrible magic for barbarian... RDA should win this fight really however he wants"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Cody agrees RDA wins handily, citing his elite wrestling and Barberena's poor takedown defense. He notes RDA hasn't finished anyone recently but expects multiple takedowns and control. He prefers the over 2.5 takedowns prop over significant strikes.

over 2.5 takedowns for RDA on PrizePicks
"Rafael dosano's top taken material I agree with you and your assessment of it I think he wins this pretty handily"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Daniel Levi picks RDA to win by decision, mixing in takedowns. He acknowledges Barberena's durability and power (dropped Leon Edwards) but believes RDA's wrestling and blending of attacks will be too much. He is not interested in betting at the heavy price (-550) and calls it a pass.

RDA by decision; pass on betting due to price
"I'll pick our DIA to come out here and you know land some takedowns and win this decision but you know because of the price I'm out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

The host is very confident in dos Anjos, calling him a 'lock of the night' essentially. He believes dos Anjos is far superior and will mix his striking and takedowns to control Barberena. He notes Barberena's struggles against grapplers like Jason Witt. He expects dos Anjos to win by decision but says he wouldn't bat an eye at parlaying him at the price.

dos Anjos by decision; parlay piece
"I think dos Anjos you know I'd call him a lock of the night essentially but you would never want to bet a minus 540 straight up like that"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Paul sees RDA as dominant everywhere and expects a straightforward win. He notes Barberena's durability but thinks RDA can finish him, especially inside the distance. He mentions RDA's takedown-heavy style and Barberena's poor takedown defense.

RDA inside the distance at +175; over 2.5 takedowns for RDA on PrizePicks
"I feel like this is a should be pretty dominant uh on the side of RDA who is still fighting some of the best fights of his career currently and uh Bam Bam gets hit a ton rarely ever finished …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

The MMA Guru picks Rafael dos Anjos, noting Barberena struggles when opponents mix up attacks. He believes RDA's body work and leg kicks will be effective, and that Barberena's losses to Jason Witt and Randy Brown show vulnerability. He predicts RDA will win a clear decision.

dos Anjos by decision (30-27)
"I'm gonna go with Rafael dos anjos here over Brian barbarina"
LOSS vs Rafael Fiziev
KO (punches) R5 0:18 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael Fiziev 0 54 of 110 49% 90 of 162 2 of 16 12% 0 0 6:13
Rafael dos Anjos 1 64 of 159 40% 92 of 192 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael Fiziev 0 9 of 26 34% 22 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:08
Rafael dos Anjos 0 14 of 41 34% 17 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rafael Fiziev 0 19 of 36 52% 25 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:31
Rafael dos Anjos 0 17 of 44 38% 20 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:46
3 Rafael Fiziev 0 9 of 22 40% 13 of 32 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:46
Rafael dos Anjos 0 17 of 38 44% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
4 Rafael Fiziev 0 15 of 23 65% 28 of 41 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:48
Rafael dos Anjos 0 12 of 27 44% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:27
5 Rafael Fiziev 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael dos Anjos 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael Fiziev 54 of 110 49% 31 of 80 12 of 14 11 of 16 50 of 106 4 of 4 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 64 of 159 40% 32 of 102 27 of 52 5 of 5 62 of 155 1 of 2 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael Fiziev 9 of 26 34% 5 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 4 8 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 14 of 41 34% 8 of 26 6 of 15 0 of 0 14 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rafael Fiziev 19 of 36 52% 10 of 26 7 of 7 2 of 3 18 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 17 of 44 38% 6 of 27 9 of 15 2 of 2 17 of 43 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rafael Fiziev 9 of 22 40% 6 of 16 2 of 3 1 of 3 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 17 of 38 44% 7 of 26 8 of 10 2 of 2 17 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Rafael Fiziev 15 of 23 65% 9 of 17 1 of 1 5 of 5 13 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 12 of 27 44% 7 of 17 4 of 9 1 of 1 11 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Rafael Fiziev 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 4 of 9 44% 4 of 6 0 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rafael dos Anjos vs. Rafael Fiziev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fiziev (-200), dos Anjos (+170)

Round 1
The battle for Rafael supremacy comes to a head in this main event, in the only fight tonight containing two ranked competitors. Former lightweight king dos Anjos (31-13, 20-11 UFC) hopes to push towards another run at the title, but he will have to get through “Ataman” Fiziev (11-1, 5-1 UFC) to get there. This intriguing clash between veteran and upstart, grappler and striker, and old lion vs. young thundercat will be joined by referee Mark Smith. When the cage door closes, the Rafaels touch gloves ahead of their 25-minute tilt -- if needed – and they are ready to finally get after it. Fiziev strikes first with a sharp body kick, and dos Anjos looks to cut him off and he tosses out a low kick. Fiziev answers with another body kick, and he does a dodge reminiscent of the film “The Matrix” as he leans back from a high kick. Dos Anjos steps in with a left hand that catches “Ataman” on the chin, and he ducks a looping left to pop Fiziev with a punch of his own. The Brazilian charges in to press Fiziev against the cage, and he looks for a body lock to slow Fiziev down and starts spamming knees to the thigh. Fiziev keeps his balance when dos Anjos looks for a level change, and dos Anjos comfortable crushes Fiziev against the wire. The full body weight of the former champ is pressed against Fiziev, who finds himself pinned and unable to get any offense off from up close. Fiziev quickly turns to get out, and he steps in with a knee and a right hand as they split. Fiziev delivers two kicks to the body, and dos Anjos replies with one. Fiziev answers with another, and he kicks high and jumps in the air with a knee. Two punches to the body lead to one to the head from the Tiger Muay Thai fighter, and he just misses with a whipping head kick. Dos Anjos thumps a leg kick low and keeps his guard high and tight to block incoming fire until he can shoot for a double. Fiziev’s takedown defense holds up on the attempt, and he absorbs a few knees and an elbow before spinning out. Fiziev steps in with an elbow, and he catches dos Anjos with a pair of right hands. Fiziev sneaks in a left hand that shakes dos Anjos up, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev

Round 2
The lightweights clap hands to start off the second frame, and they meet in the center of the Octagon. Fiziev looses a head kick that misses the mark, and dos Anjos pounds him in the torso with a kick. Dos Anjos steps in with a left, and he takes a body shot on the way in. Fiziev catches a second loud body kick, and he clinches up but separates when nothing comes of it. The Brazilian loads up on a left hand, and Fiziev pushes him off and jams his thumb in dos Anjos’ right eye. Dos Anjos takes 30 seconds to blink it out, and when they resume, Fiziev kicks high quickly. Dos Anjos marches him down and catches him with a left hook, and he dives forward for a single. Fiziev spins around, and dos Anjos grabs hold of his back with his hands clasped. Fiziev turns back around to stop it, and he pushes off to split and get back the center of the cage. Dos Anjos keeps light on his feet and strides forward with a straight left hand, and he steps on Fiziev’s foot to hold him in that position. Fiziev once more uses the elastic that is his spine to bend backwards and dodge a head kick, and he counters with an uppercut and a left hook. Fiziev pushes out a jab and takes one clean one back, and dos Anjos kicks him in the ribs. Dos Anjos hunts for a takedown, and Fiziev deftly reverses him and hip tosses dos Anjos to his knees. Fiziev gets up first, and he pushes dos Anjos back to the wire, but cannot grind him there. “Ataman” wings an uppercut, and dos Anjos steps in to clinch in the middle of the Octagon. With a body lock, dos Anjos attempts to take Fiziev down, but once more, he is stopped in his tracks from doing so. Dos Anjos scores a knee on the break, and he pokes at Fiziev with an uppercut on his way back. Dos Anjos reaches him with a right, and Fiziev responds with a powerful one that stuns dos Anjos momentarily. The ex-champ gathers his thoughts and kicks low, and he reaches out with a short right hook. Fiziev kicks him in the body and gets clipped with a long left hand, and the bell rings to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev

Round 3
Between rounds, dos Anjos is concerned about a cut below his right elbow. His corner tells him to forget about it, and there is a split on his forearm from blocking a kick from the previous round. The round opens with a few punches from Fiziev, and dos Anjos darts forward in pursuit of a double-leg takedown. Fiziev posts off his arm to keep himself upright, and dos Anjos doggedly pursues it to ground Fiziev. The Brazilian kicks Fiziev’s foot out to get the takedown he was seeking, and Fiziev climbs right back up without concern. As dos Anjos hangs on in the clinch, Fiziev looks at the video screen to find a way out. He does this as dos Anjos goes after a single, yanking his leg free and gaining some separation to work several body kicks. After absorbing a few more blows, dos Anjos darts in with a double, and he pushes Fiziev back but is nowhere close to taking him down. Smith tells them to work as they just hang on in the clinch, and dos Anjos blasts a knee to the liver as Fiziev splits off. The lightweights trade low kicks, and Fiziev wings a short left hook that gets dos Anjos’ attention. A straight right hand from Fiziev makes dos Anjos blink it out, and Fiziev is the one to initiate a clinch, pushing the former champ up against the chain-link fencing. Dos Anjos turns the corner to break apart, and he connects with a chopping leg kick only to eat a jump knee in the process. Dos Anjos tries to keep his head movement to evade multiple straight punches aimed at his head, and the two men trade one after the other in the middle of the cage. The round ends as Fiziev connects with a right.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev

Round 4
Ever the veteran, dos Anjos stays a little longer on his stool between rounds, prompting Smith to hurry his corner out and get him back so that they can fight. Fiziev starts off the round with several quick kicks, and dos Anjos plods forward and the two bang heads together. The Brazilian plows forward to go after a takedown, and as dos Anjos does not get it, Smith tells him to work. Fiziev gets the break he seeks, and he splits the guard with a left hand. “Ataman” chains four punches together in a combination, and dos Anjos level changes to push in for a takedown. Fiziev spins him around and jams the ex-champion into the fence, and the position stalls until Fiziev steps back. Dos Anjos nails Fiziev with a flying knee and a few punches, and he attempts to use this momentum to take the fight down, but Fiziev is quick to stop him. Dos Anjos grabs the gloves to break out of this position, only to get warned for his attempt. They break up, and dos Anjos pops Fiziev with a left. The Brazilian snatches up a leg for a single, and Fiziev hops back and keeps his balance. Dos Anjos meets him in the center of the cage to throw hands, and dos Anjos steps in with a back-elbow. Fiziev fights for a sweep takedown, and dos Anjos keeps his feet beneath him and punches his way into a takedown effort. Tired of struggling to get the takedown, “RDA” opts to lift Fiziev clear off the ground and slam him down to the mat. Dos Anjos gloms on to Fiziev while not doing anything from top position, prompting Smith to clap his hands and tell dos Anjos to work. Dos Anjos stays squeezed with his shoulder to the chest of his opponent, and Fiziev powers up with one second to spare. They both land a single punch as the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 dos Anjos
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 dos Anjos
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 dos Anjos

Round 5
Smith tells dos Anjos to stay busy in his positions between rounds, and the final round kicks off with a glove touch. The Brazilian kicks low and Fiziev kicks high, and dos Anjos pushes out with a straight left hand.
Fiziev jumps in with a knee, and when that gets blocked, he releases a left hook that totally demolishes dos Anjos. The former champion falls crashing to the mat, and Fiziev leaps over and hammers him with two consciousness-depriving punches before Smith steps in to call a halt to this contest.
Dos Anjos sits up to protest the stoppage, but there is nothing he can do, as the fight is over. Fiziev runs off to celebrate, earning easily the biggest win of his career and answering several questions that loomed about his talents. “Now we know who is the greatest Rafael in the UFC,” Fiziev shouts in his post-fight interview. He then calls for tennis star Rafael Nadal to determine the ultimate Rafael supremacy. Fiziev doubles down on the callout, boldly claiming that he can beat Nadal in his own sport. It is exceptionally unlikely this will come to fruition, but he did punch his ticket to a huge fight at 155 pounds next. No matter who Fiziev faces next, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Rafael Fiziev def. Rafael dos Anjos R5 0:18 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Angelo picks Rafael dos Anjos as a +170 underdog, citing his grappling, size advantage, cardio, and durability. He notes Fiziev is the better striker but has questionable cardio, especially in a 5-round fight. He points out that RDA has not lost in 6 years without being taken down, and Fiziev is unlikely to initiate takedowns. He already has a moneyline bet on RDA at +170.

Already has a moneyline bet on Rafael dos Anjos at +170.
"I like rafael dosanos I already got a money line bet on him at plus 170."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Big Brady picks Rafael dos Anjos, citing the five-round distance as a key factor. He notes that Fiziev has never seen the fourth or fifth round and has slowed down in third rounds of past fights, while RDA has proven cardio and experience in championship rounds. He expects RDA to mix in takedowns to test Fiziev's 95% takedown defense and cardio, potentially taking over in later rounds. He predicts a close decision win for RDA, acknowledging Fiziev could knock him out early.

"i'm gonna pick rda here to win this fight and win it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Cody believes Fiziev has the advantage in striking with better hands and kicks, and his takedown defense is strong. He thinks Fiziev's cardio is sufficient to secure early rounds and then survive if needed. He sees RDA as a gatekeeper and Fiziev as a rising contender, calling it a passing of the torch.

Mentions RDA over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks as a play.
"gotta go with raphael physique so when you're looking at the odds of course it doesn't look you know great like uh you got minus 225 and raphael's eve versus more of a proven commodity in rafael sanyos"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)

The host discusses the Fiziev vs RDA fight but does not place a bet on it. He acknowledges the value on RDA as an underdog and respects those who pick him, but he personally keeps the fight out of his betting card. He mentions having Fiziev in a parlay but does not elaborate on a clear pick. He notes that Fiziev is younger, faster, and stronger, but RDA is durable and could win by decision. Ultimately, he does not commit to a side.

"I have a bet on Johnson and I understand the value on our day like if you're seeing perceived value on RDA I'd absolutely agree with you which is why I'm not touching that fight but I still do think …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Paul thinks the price on Fiziev is too wide and expects to get RDA at a better price closer to fight time. He notes RDA's wrestling could be a factor, especially in a five-round fight, and that Fiziev's takedown defense hasn't been fully tested. He calls it a dogger pass situation but leans RDA.

Mentions RDA over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks as a play.
"i just think it's uh the price is a little bit too wide and it's continuing to grow so it's like i feel like by the time we get to fight time i'm gonna probably end up with an rda …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

The Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, believing RDA's style is tailor-made to lose to Fiziev. He notes Fiziev's body work, takedown defense, and youth advantage. He predicts Fiziev will win the first three rounds decisively, possibly a 4-1 decision, with RDA making a late resurgence but ultimately losing.

4-1 decision
"I've got to side with Rafael Fiziev here."
Decision (unanimous) (49–45, 49–44, 50–44) R5 5:00 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael dos Anjos 1 149 of 286 52% 179 of 318 5 of 15 33% 0 0 13:22
Renato Moicano 0 88 of 172 51% 99 of 185 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael dos Anjos 0 22 of 34 64% 30 of 43 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:12
Renato Moicano 0 10 of 23 43% 12 of 25 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:30
2 Rafael dos Anjos 0 27 of 47 57% 32 of 52 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:44
Renato Moicano 0 15 of 29 51% 15 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rafael dos Anjos 1 40 of 84 47% 52 of 97 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:05
Renato Moicano 0 15 of 25 60% 16 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Rafael dos Anjos 0 22 of 42 52% 27 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:53
Renato Moicano 0 12 of 22 54% 20 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Rafael dos Anjos 0 38 of 79 48% 38 of 79 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:28
Renato Moicano 0 36 of 73 49% 36 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael dos Anjos 149 of 286 52% 119 of 255 23 of 24 7 of 7 84 of 198 7 of 8 58 of 80
Renato Moicano 88 of 172 51% 77 of 158 8 of 11 3 of 3 81 of 164 7 of 7 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael dos Anjos 22 of 34 64% 17 of 29 5 of 5 0 of 0 6 of 17 3 of 3 13 of 14
Renato Moicano 10 of 23 43% 6 of 19 3 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 19 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Rafael dos Anjos 27 of 47 57% 19 of 39 7 of 7 1 of 1 17 of 37 3 of 3 7 of 7
Renato Moicano 15 of 29 51% 12 of 26 1 of 1 2 of 2 14 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rafael dos Anjos 40 of 84 47% 34 of 77 4 of 5 2 of 2 17 of 45 0 of 1 23 of 38
Renato Moicano 15 of 25 60% 14 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Rafael dos Anjos 22 of 42 52% 17 of 37 4 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 21 0 of 0 15 of 21
Renato Moicano 12 of 22 54% 12 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 12 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 1
5 Rafael dos Anjos 38 of 79 48% 32 of 73 3 of 3 3 of 3 37 of 78 1 of 1 0 of 0
Renato Moicano 36 of 73 49% 33 of 67 3 of 6 0 of 0 34 of 71 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 25, 2022 (8 days before fight)

Angelo picks Fiziev but is hesitant, noting his brain says Fiziev but his heart says RDA. He highlights Fiziev's phenomenal striking and takedown defense, but questions his cardio over five rounds. He points out that RDA hasn't been finished in six years and only loses to wrestlers who take him down. He considers a plus 5.5 round bet on RDA.

considering over on rounds, plus 5.5 bet on RDA
"my brain is saying i need to go with fiz i have but my heart is saying my gut is saying that rda is going to win i've got to follow the brain"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Cody is torn because Moicano looked good on short notice against Hernandez, but the five-round nature favors RDA's experience and cardio. He notes RDA has fought 25 minutes many times and is a big lightweight who fought at welterweight, while Moicano has never gone five rounds and gassed in the Ortega fight. The catchweight of 160 also helps RDA. Cody ultimately flips to RDA but is hesitant due to the short-notice variable.

"i think uh i think rafael de san jose is the side"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Mar 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

Daniel Levi picks Renato Moicano for the upset, but with hesitation. He notes that Moicano is the much bigger man with a size and reach advantage, and has good volume and a solid black belt. He points out that RDA has been taken down frequently in recent fights (by Usman, Colby, Chiesa, Leon) and that Moicano could have success in grappling exchanges. However, he conditions his pick on Moicano looking in shape at the weigh-in; if Moicano appears fat or out of shape, he would switch to RDA. He views this as a dog-or-pass situation and believes Moicano is on an upward trajectory.

"i actually will take henato mykano to come out here and get this upset"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

RDA is a tough veteran with excellent cardio and durability, while Moicano is taking the fight on four days' notice with travel and weight cut issues. Moicano will likely come out strong early but fade as the fight goes on. RDA's grappling and pressure will wear on Moicano, leading to a finish in the later rounds. The short notice and travel are huge red flags for Moicano.

RDA wins in round 4 (TKO), live betting opportunity on RDA if Moicano has early success
"i'm gonna call a finish for dos anos here i do think that he gets muy kano out of there let's call it round four"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Paul initially considered Moicano as a live underdog but after tape study flipped to RDA. He emphasizes RDA's five-round experience, size advantage (fought at 170), and clean camp versus Moicano's short notice and history of gassing. Paul points out Moicano's takedowns zap his cardio and he struggles striking backwards, while RDA mixes grappling and pace well. He calls it dog or pass but leans RDA.

"i think i am going to go with rda in this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

The MMA Guru picks Renato Moicano (referred to as 'fizzyev') over Rafael dos Anjos, calling it a lock. He notes Moicano's speed advantage and RDA's decline at 155, especially his chin. He predicts Moicano will chew up RDA's legs with kicks in the first round, and when RDA pressures in the second, Moicano will catch him with a straight right for a TKO. He mentions RDA's only chance was in a five-rounder, but Moicano's patience and striking will prevail.

method: TKO, round: 2
"i'm going to go with raphael fizzyev second round ko early on in the second"
WIN vs Paul Felder
Decision (split) (47–48, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. dos Anjos · Nov 14, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael dos Anjos 0 98 of 190 51% 134 of 226 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:40
Paul Felder 0 92 of 162 56% 155 of 231 6 of 22 27% 0 0 14:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael dos Anjos 0 17 of 45 37% 17 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Paul Felder 0 22 of 34 64% 27 of 41 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:06
2 Rafael dos Anjos 0 29 of 46 63% 35 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Felder 0 27 of 47 57% 31 of 51 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:43
3 Rafael dos Anjos 0 12 of 21 57% 21 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Paul Felder 0 13 of 18 72% 28 of 35 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:17
4 Rafael dos Anjos 0 26 of 55 47% 39 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:49
Paul Felder 0 19 of 41 46% 34 of 57 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:54
5 Rafael dos Anjos 0 14 of 23 60% 22 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Felder 0 11 of 22 50% 35 of 47 2 of 7 28% 0 0 4:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael dos Anjos 98 of 190 51% 64 of 147 20 of 29 14 of 14 76 of 161 21 of 28 1 of 1
Paul Felder 92 of 162 56% 53 of 113 35 of 45 4 of 4 61 of 125 26 of 29 5 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael dos Anjos 17 of 45 37% 8 of 33 5 of 8 4 of 4 16 of 43 1 of 2 0 of 0
Paul Felder 22 of 34 64% 13 of 24 9 of 10 0 of 0 17 of 28 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Rafael dos Anjos 29 of 46 63% 23 of 38 3 of 5 3 of 3 22 of 38 7 of 8 0 of 0
Paul Felder 27 of 47 57% 19 of 36 7 of 10 1 of 1 21 of 40 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Rafael dos Anjos 12 of 21 57% 5 of 11 3 of 6 4 of 4 8 of 13 4 of 8 0 of 0
Paul Felder 13 of 18 72% 7 of 10 5 of 7 1 of 1 8 of 13 5 of 5 0 of 0
4 Rafael dos Anjos 26 of 55 47% 20 of 48 5 of 6 1 of 1 20 of 48 6 of 7 0 of 0
Paul Felder 19 of 41 46% 7 of 26 11 of 14 1 of 1 10 of 30 8 of 9 1 of 2
5 Rafael dos Anjos 14 of 23 60% 8 of 17 4 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 19 3 of 3 1 of 1
Paul Felder 11 of 22 50% 7 of 17 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 14 2 of 2 4 of 6
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Big Brady picks RDA because he had a full camp training for Islam Makhachev, which should help his wrestling and grappling against Felder, who took the fight on five days' notice. He notes RDA is the more technical striker with higher output, and Felder is dangerous but RDA has a solid chin. He expects RDA to mix in takedowns and grind out a decision, possibly a late finish.

RDA decision prop mentioned as a potential look; RDA as a parlay piece considered
"i'm gonna take rda to get it done um you know grind out paul felder to a decision i wouldn't be surprised if there's a late finish"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Daniel picks dos Anjos because he believes Felder's timing will be off due to lack of sparring and wrestling preparation on short notice. He notes dos Anjos has been training for a five-round fight against Islam Makhachev and is motivated dropping back to 155. He also points out that Felder historically struggles with volume and that dos Anjos can mix in takedowns, referencing Edson Barboza taking Felder down. He acknowledges Felder's durability and power but thinks dos Anjos will outwork him.

"i'm gonna roll with rafael dos anos as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

The host favors Rafael dos Anjos due to his experience in five-round fights, having gone to the fourth round or later in seven of his last nine five-round bouts. He believes dos Anjos's aggressive striking, leg kicks, and superior jiu-jitsu will overwhelm Paul Felder, who is taking the fight on six days' notice and has only one five-round fight experience. The host notes Felder's durability but expects dos Anjos to win via decision, possibly mixing in takedowns and ground control.

Host mentions dos Anjos via submission as a possibility but leans toward decision; also notes odds around -150 and says he might take a play on dos Anjos if the line sticks.
"i love dosanus here i think he gets ... i'm going to go with the safe side and i'll say dosan used to win this fight via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

The MMA Guru picks Rafael dos Anjos, citing Felder's short notice and difficult weight cut as major disadvantages. He believes dos Anjos will invest in body and leg kicks early, then finish Felder by exhaustion in the later rounds. He notes that dos Anjos has been training for this fight and is not a big lightweight, while Felder's reach advantage is neutralized by dos Anjos' similar reach. He also mentions that dos Anjos will be more confident on the feet without facing a wrestler.

Finish by exhaustion TKO in round 4 or 5; mentions dos Anjos has similar reach to Felder; notes Felder's terrible weight cuts even on full camp
"I'm gonna go with Rafael dos Anjos chewing up his legs, chewing up his body for three rounds, eventually getting himself a finish in the fourth or fifth or running away with an easy decision."
LOSS vs Michael Chiesa
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. dos Santos · Jan 25, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Chiesa 0 14 of 36 38% 23 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Rafael dos Anjos 0 9 of 51 17% 54 of 107 6 of 8 75% 0 0 10:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Chiesa 0 4 of 9 44% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Rafael dos Anjos 0 1 of 12 8% 2 of 16 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:14
2 Michael Chiesa 0 8 of 24 33% 11 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:31
Rafael dos Anjos 0 7 of 34 20% 12 of 39 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:14
3 Michael Chiesa 0 2 of 3 66% 7 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael dos Anjos 0 1 of 5 20% 40 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Chiesa 14 of 36 38% 2 of 23 4 of 4 8 of 9 14 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 9 of 51 17% 6 of 45 2 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 49 0 of 1 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Chiesa 4 of 9 44% 1 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 1 of 12 8% 0 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Michael Chiesa 8 of 24 33% 0 of 15 2 of 2 6 of 7 8 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 7 of 34 20% 5 of 29 1 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 33 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Michael Chiesa 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 24, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Daniel picks RDA to win by decision, acknowledging that Chiesa might give him some trouble early with his grappling and size. He notes that RDA has been taken down 28 times in his last four fights but believes RDA's superior striking and jiu-jitsu will prevail. He mentions that RDA is on the tail end of his career but still the better fighter.

by decision
"I'll take RDA by my decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa, emphasizing that the fight is three rounds, which favors Chiesa's ability to hold dos Anjos down for two rounds. He notes Chiesa is a large welterweight with a significant reach advantage, and that dos Anjos may come back in the third but it will be too late. He predicts Chiesa wins the first two rounds and loses the third, winning by decision.

decision
"I'm going with michael Chiesa here especially because it's a free round fight I think he's gonna hold Rafael dos Anjos down for two rounds... michael Chiesa gets the job done"
Kevin Lee - Fight History
Technical Submission (guillotine choke) R1 0:55 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rinat Fakhretdinov 0 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Lee 1 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rinat Fakhretdinov 0 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Lee 1 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rinat Fakhretdinov 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Lee 11 of 17 64% 6 of 12 2 of 2 3 of 3 11 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rinat Fakhretdinov 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Lee 11 of 17 64% 6 of 12 2 of 2 3 of 3 11 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Angelo picks Rinat Fakhretdinov, citing his offensive wrestling, heavy hands, and insane cardio. He believes Kevin Lee's only chance is to come forward and initiate takedowns, but he doubts Lee can take down Fakhretdinov. He notes the line has moved from -260 to -190, indicating money on Lee, but he is shocked the odds are close.

"this has to be a Renault pick for me Kevin Lee is a gamer been around forever it's fought everybody but we're not offensive wrestling it's just on another level"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Big Brady picks Rinat Fakhretdinov to win by decision, but is not confident. He notes Fakhretdinov has a size and cardio advantage, and is in his prime, while Kevin Lee has been battling injuries and is small for welterweight. However, he acknowledges if prime Kevin Lee shows up, the price would be a steal. He thinks Fakhretdinov's wrestling and pace will be too much for the current version of Lee.

"I'm gonna I'm gonna take vodka dinov don't feel amazing about it though I really don't"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Lee

Cody reluctantly picks Kevin Lee as a plus-money underdog. He notes Lee's past success against top competition, his never losing a first round in the UFC, and his improved knees after surgery. He thinks Fakhretdinov's wins over Andreas Michailidis and Brian Battle are unimpressive and that Lee's striking and wrestling are superior. However, he acknowledges Lee's poor performance against Diego Sanchez and the size disadvantage.

"I'm gonna take him very reluctantly I am going to take him"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Daniel confidently picks Fakhretdinov, citing his dominant grappling and striking stats (7 takedowns, 102-25 strikes against Battle; 5 takedowns, 106-48 strikes against Michailidis). He criticizes Kevin Lee as a front-runner who fades when pressured, and notes Lee's 1-4 skid before being cut. He expects Fakhretdinov to impose his will and finish Lee, possibly by submission or TKO. He dismisses the 'crotch sniffer' label, emphasizing that Fakhretdinov outstrikes opponents as well.

expects a finish; Fakhretdinov minus 190
"I got renat Factor Dean off to extend his win streak and uh you know get into you know one of those top 15 Eliminator type fights"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Paul picks Fakhretdinov, citing his size advantage (natural welterweight vs Lee moving up), dominant performance against Brian Battle, and Lee's poor showing against Diego Sanchez. He notes Lee's knee surgeries and layoff, and believes Fakhretdinov's grappling will be too much. Paul thinks Lee may have peaked and is now declining.

"I'll say that it's faculty enough or pass for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

The Guru picks Rinat Fakhretdinov, citing Kevin Lee's decline, especially his poor performance against Diego Sanchez. He notes Fakhretdinov's dominance over Brian Battle, who is a solid prospect. He predicts Fakhretdinov will dominate in later rounds, getting a third-round TKO or rear-naked choke, as Lee's cardio and chin are questionable.

third round TKO or rear-naked choke
"I'm going with renat for cretinov because Kevin Lee made Diego Sanchez look good in his last fight"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Chikadze · Aug 28, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Rodriguez 0 56 of 160 35% 74 of 181 3 of 7 42% 0 0 3:34
Kevin Lee 0 120 of 210 57% 137 of 229 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Rodriguez 0 13 of 44 29% 31 of 65 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:59
Kevin Lee 0 16 of 40 40% 21 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Daniel Rodriguez 0 23 of 51 45% 23 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:33
Kevin Lee 0 51 of 84 60% 60 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:41
3 Daniel Rodriguez 0 20 of 65 30% 20 of 65 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:02
Kevin Lee 0 53 of 86 61% 56 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Rodriguez 56 of 160 35% 39 of 134 12 of 21 5 of 5 55 of 157 0 of 0 1 of 3
Kevin Lee 120 of 210 57% 87 of 175 7 of 8 26 of 27 113 of 202 0 of 0 7 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Rodriguez 13 of 44 29% 7 of 36 5 of 7 1 of 1 12 of 41 0 of 0 1 of 3
Kevin Lee 16 of 40 40% 8 of 31 1 of 2 7 of 7 16 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Daniel Rodriguez 23 of 51 45% 20 of 45 2 of 5 1 of 1 23 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Lee 51 of 84 60% 36 of 69 4 of 4 11 of 11 45 of 77 0 of 0 6 of 7
3 Daniel Rodriguez 20 of 65 30% 12 of 53 5 of 9 3 of 3 20 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Lee 53 of 86 61% 43 of 75 2 of 2 8 of 9 52 of 85 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Lee vs. Daniel Rodriguez

Round 1
Returning to the welterweight division after a one-off appearance in 2019, Lee (18-6, 11-6 UFC) will try to right the ship at the expense of power-puncher Rodriguez (15-2, 5-1 UFC). Referee Herb Dean takes charge of the cage for this intriguing bout, and they do not touch gloves before bringing the ruckus. They reach alternating punches at the other, and Lee opens up with a body kick suddenly. Rodriguez swats at him with a right hand, and he evades the counter. A double jab from Lee forces his foe to back off, and Rodriguez catches a kick and grazes Lee’s chin with a straight right hand. Rodriguez goes after the lead leg with a kick, and Lee slings a head kick right back at him. “D-Rod” targets the body and head with kicks, and he just misses with a heavy right hand. Another Lee head kick gets blocked, and Rodriguez does not commit to his hands and instead gets off a leg kick. Rodriguez continues to work the lead leg with chopping kicks, and he goes up high with a kick as Lee fires off a right hand his way. Lee connects with a head kick, and he turns the forward motion into a takedown attempt that is stuffed like he crashed into a brick wall. Both welterweights trade right hands, and Rodriguez follows it up and hops out of the way before Lee can reach him. Lee turns a punch into a single leg attempt, and he scoops Rodriguez off the ground and puts him on his back. Lee advances to half guard, and he grinds his shoulder on his opponent’s face and tries to isolate Rodriguez’ left arm. Rodriguez frees it and takes some punches, as Lee squeezes his elbow on his face. Lee sits up and slashes down with an elbow, and he maintains this top position until the round ends. A little bit of shenanigans go on after the bell, as Rodriguez tries to get Lee off of him while Dean separates them.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lee
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lee
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lee

Round 2
Cooler heads prevail between rounds, and the second frame begins without issue. Rodriguez starts the round with several kicks high and low, and a one-two shakes Lee up briefly. Lee backs off to gather himself, and he fires off a head kick that collides with Rodriguez’ forearm. Rodriguez aims a single left hand to the body, and then strings a pair of punches into a leg kick. Rodriguez goes over the top with a right hand, leading to Lee ducking down to pursue a takedown. Lee trips Rodriguez’ leg out in a subsequent attempt, and he latches on to the neck with a one-arm guillotine choke to press his adversary flat on his back. Rodriguez rolls to his knees and surrenders his back, and Lee is quick to set up the body triangle. Before “The Motown Phenom” can set it up, Rodriguez shocks him by turning around and taking top position. Rodriguez cannot capitalize on this sudden position change, as Lee walks his way back up the cage to his feet without taking damage. Both welterweights land with successful strikes, and Lee whiffs on a kick that makes him smile. Lee triples up with a jab as Rodriguez walks forward, with “D-Rod” kicking his leg and stopping his momentum. Lee throws caution to the wind with a few wide shots, and Rodriguez is more accurate as he rings Lee’s bell with a right hand. Lee tries to say it did not land cleanly, but Rodriguez does not notice as he instead throws hands. Lee retreats, jumps forward with a big punch, and has his front leg kicked hard on the way in. “D-Rod” clips Lee with a left hand, and once more Lee tries to play it off as if it did not mean much. Rodriguez connects with a slapping kick, and he rocks Lee with a left hand flush on the temple that puts Lee on ice skates. Lee wobbles forward and drops to a knee, allowing Rodriguez to slam his fists in the side of his head, and he holds on tight and rides out the onslaught for a few more seconds until the round timer rescues him.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 3
Rodriguez knows that Lee is not totally recovered after getting rocked at the end of the last round, and he takes advantage of this by sticking Lee with several punches. Kicks from alternating legs from Rodriguez find their home on Lee’s body and forearms. The two slug it out briefly, and the volume of Rodriguez has increased significantly as he works with combinations as Lee largely throws single big strikes. Lee shoots in from a wide distance, and Rodriguez sees it coming and makes him pay with a huge right hand. “The Motown Phenom” is stung by this as he slides back, and Rodriguez keeps his foot on the gas as he throws punches and kicks to great effect. Lee fires back with a single kick that makes Rodriguez fall to the ground, and Rodriguez makes his way back to his feet just in time for lee to shoot on him. Lee lifts Rodriguez in the air and slams him down, but Rodriguez will not forfeit this position as he slashes at his foe with a sharp elbow. Rodriguez pulls his leg free, allowing him to get to his knees and feet as Lee leans on him. Rodriguez pushes him away, and he sticks out a few jabs to back Lee off. Rodriguez cracks his man with a few booming hooks, and Lee may be busted up and bleeding, but he throws right back with bad intentions. Lee leaps in the air with a counter flying knee, and Rodriguez sees it coming from a mile away and pushes him back down to the ground. Lee pumps out a few right hands, and Rodriguez tattoos his fists on Lee’s face in response. Rodriguez continues to mark Lee up with crisp punches, stringing several together as Lee gathers his thoughts and throws heavy single blows. One such body kick from Lee catches Rodriguez unaware, but Rodriguez plays through the pain and zings a head kick off the dome. Lee marches forward and lands a single kick, but a strike from Rodriguez forces Lee to topple to the canvas. Rodriguez appears surprised by this, and he lets Lee back up so that he can punch him more. Rodriguez blocks a head kick, leaps forward with a superman punch, and the fun fight ends with a few winging punches from both men.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Rodriguez)

The Official Result
Daniel Rodriguez def. Kevin Lee via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Angelo picks Rodriguez but is cautious, citing his crisp boxing, takedown defense, and cardio. He notes Lee has two bad knees and is moving up in weight. He thinks a healthy Lee would win, but the matchup favors Rodriguez. He has Rodriguez in his DraftKings lineup at 7700.

Angelo likes the less less on monkey knife fight.
"i think daniel rodriguez will out point a very frustrated kevin lee in this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Lee

Cody picks Lee, believing that at 170 pounds Lee will have better cardio and can use his wrestling. He notes Lee's talent and that this is a step down in competition. Cody thinks Lee's wrestling will be effective against Rodriguez, who fishes for submissions off his back. He is slightly worried about the size disparity but overall likes Lee as a favorite.

"minus 150 kevin lee seems pretty solid to me like that's a good line"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Lee

Jacob picks Lee, citing his talent and the move to welterweight helping his cut. He believes Lee will get the fight to the ground and submit or TKO Rodriguez. He is surprised Lee is a +150 favorite and thinks he finds a way to win.

"i like kevin lee in this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Lee

Lock picks Kevin Lee by decision at +215, believing Lee's grappling advantage will be decisive. He thinks Lee can secure takedowns in the first two rounds and at least one in the third, controlling the fight. Lock is concerned about Lee's cardio but notes it's a three-round fight and Rodriguez doesn't push a high pace. He sees Rodriguez as competent off his back but not a submission threat.

Lee by decision +215
"i do think kevin lee uh eeks this fight out with the decision okay maybe eek is a little bit of an exaggeration i do think he wins this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Lee

Paul picks Lee, citing his wrestling and the fact that Rodriguez is taking the fight on short notice. He thinks Lee's best path is wrestling, and that Rodriguez's 10th Planet jiu-jitsu is mostly off his back. Paul is concerned about Lee's weight cuts but believes at 170 he'll perform better. He says he'll watch weigh-ins before betting.

"i'll uh i'll go with the favorite here minus 150 kevin the motown phenom lee"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Aug 22, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Lee

The Guru picks Kevin Lee after flipping back and forth, ultimately trusting Lee's wrestling and reach advantage. He notes that Rodriguez took the fight on short notice while eating hot dogs at Disneyland, which affects his preparation. The Guru predicts a rear-naked choke in the first or second round, but acknowledges Rodriguez could win by TKO in the later rounds if it goes that far.

Lee by submission (rear-naked choke) in round 1 or 2
"i'm gonna go with kevin lee rear naked choke first or second round i'm trusting in kevin lee here"
Submission (guillotine choke) R3 0:28 · UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · Mar 14, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Oliveira 0 41 of 80 51% 61 of 100 2 of 3 66% 0 1 6:30
Kevin Lee 0 43 of 65 66% 51 of 73 0 of 1 0% 2 1 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Oliveira 0 15 of 29 51% 15 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:30
Kevin Lee 0 13 of 18 72% 16 of 21 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:11
2 Charles Oliveira 0 16 of 37 43% 36 of 57 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:56
Kevin Lee 0 28 of 42 66% 33 of 47 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 Charles Oliveira 0 10 of 14 71% 10 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Kevin Lee 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Oliveira 41 of 80 51% 35 of 74 6 of 6 0 of 0 31 of 65 0 of 0 10 of 15
Kevin Lee 43 of 65 66% 28 of 49 9 of 10 6 of 6 35 of 56 2 of 2 6 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Oliveira 15 of 29 51% 13 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 22 0 of 0 7 of 7
Kevin Lee 13 of 18 72% 8 of 12 1 of 2 4 of 4 10 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 3
2 Charles Oliveira 16 of 37 43% 13 of 34 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 29 0 of 0 3 of 8
Kevin Lee 28 of 42 66% 19 of 33 7 of 7 2 of 2 23 of 36 2 of 2 3 of 4
3 Charles Oliveira 10 of 14 71% 9 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Lee 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Mar 12, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Daniel leans towards Oliveira as a dog, citing his submission threat and undefeated record in Brazil. He thinks Oliveira can finish Lee somewhere along the way. He notes Lee's chin and submission loss to dos Anjos as concerns.

finish
"I'm a lean with the dog here so I'm gonna go with Charles du Bronx Oliveira to finish Kevin Lee"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Kevin Lee

The host picks Kevin Lee over Charles Oliveira. He argues that Oliveira's recent wins are against lower-level competition (Nik Lentz, Jim Miller, Clay Guida, etc.) and that historically Oliveira loses when stepping up in competition. Lee has a reach advantage (three inches) and improved striking at Tristar. He expects Lee to piece Oliveira up on the feet, take him down, and finish by ground-and-pound in the late second round. He also notes Lee's good jiu-jitsu defense.

second round TKO by ground-and-pound
"Kevin Lee by second-round TKO and Olivieri are back to the drawing board and back to be in Cannes"
KO (head kick) R1 2:47 · UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Nov 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Lee 1 21 of 59 35% 21 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Gregor Gillespie 0 9 of 46 19% 9 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Lee 1 21 of 59 35% 21 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Gregor Gillespie 0 9 of 46 19% 9 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Lee 21 of 59 35% 19 of 55 2 of 4 0 of 0 20 of 56 0 of 2 1 of 1
Gregor Gillespie 9 of 46 19% 8 of 45 0 of 0 1 of 1 9 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Lee 21 of 59 35% 19 of 55 2 of 4 0 of 0 20 of 56 0 of 2 1 of 1
Gregor Gillespie 9 of 46 19% 8 of 45 0 of 0 1 of 1 9 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R4 3:47 · UFC Fight Night: dos Anjos vs. Lee · May 18, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael dos Anjos 0 60 of 111 54% 75 of 126 4 of 7 57% 1 1 3:53
Kevin Lee 0 35 of 97 36% 40 of 102 6 of 16 37% 0 0 8:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael dos Anjos 0 15 of 34 44% 18 of 37 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:28
Kevin Lee 0 12 of 32 37% 14 of 34 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:58
2 Rafael dos Anjos 0 14 of 24 58% 20 of 30 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:35
Kevin Lee 0 12 of 30 40% 15 of 33 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:56
3 Rafael dos Anjos 0 14 of 19 73% 16 of 21 2 of 3 66% 0 1 2:20
Kevin Lee 0 2 of 11 18% 2 of 11 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:44
4 Rafael dos Anjos 0 17 of 34 50% 21 of 38 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:30
Kevin Lee 0 9 of 24 37% 9 of 24 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael dos Anjos 60 of 111 54% 36 of 83 17 of 21 7 of 7 33 of 80 18 of 20 9 of 11
Kevin Lee 35 of 97 36% 23 of 79 10 of 16 2 of 2 27 of 86 7 of 10 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael dos Anjos 15 of 34 44% 5 of 23 9 of 10 1 of 1 8 of 26 7 of 8 0 of 0
Kevin Lee 12 of 32 37% 10 of 28 2 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 26 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Rafael dos Anjos 14 of 24 58% 9 of 18 4 of 5 1 of 1 8 of 17 5 of 6 1 of 1
Kevin Lee 12 of 30 40% 9 of 25 3 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 26 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Rafael dos Anjos 14 of 19 73% 8 of 12 4 of 5 2 of 2 4 of 9 6 of 6 4 of 4
Kevin Lee 2 of 11 18% 1 of 9 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1
4 Rafael dos Anjos 17 of 34 50% 14 of 30 0 of 1 3 of 3 13 of 28 0 of 0 4 of 6
Kevin Lee 9 of 24 37% 3 of 17 4 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Al Iaquinta
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC on Fox: Lee vs. Iaquinta 2 · Dec 15, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Al Iaquinta 0 102 of 296 34% 121 of 319 3 of 5 60% 0 0 5:27
Kevin Lee 0 111 of 228 48% 113 of 230 0 of 7 0% 0 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Al Iaquinta 0 23 of 86 26% 23 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Lee 0 20 of 51 39% 20 of 51 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Al Iaquinta 0 34 of 69 49% 43 of 81 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:44
Kevin Lee 0 18 of 35 51% 18 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Al Iaquinta 0 10 of 35 28% 20 of 46 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:29
Kevin Lee 0 16 of 29 55% 18 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Al Iaquinta 0 17 of 61 27% 17 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Lee 0 24 of 60 40% 24 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Al Iaquinta 0 18 of 45 40% 18 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:14
Kevin Lee 0 33 of 53 62% 33 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Al Iaquinta 102 of 296 34% 80 of 267 14 of 21 8 of 8 81 of 273 1 of 1 20 of 22
Kevin Lee 111 of 228 48% 82 of 189 19 of 28 10 of 11 110 of 226 0 of 0 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Al Iaquinta 23 of 86 26% 17 of 77 4 of 7 2 of 2 23 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Lee 20 of 51 39% 12 of 38 5 of 9 3 of 4 20 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Al Iaquinta 34 of 69 49% 29 of 62 3 of 5 2 of 2 15 of 48 0 of 0 19 of 21
Kevin Lee 18 of 35 51% 12 of 29 4 of 4 2 of 2 17 of 34 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Al Iaquinta 10 of 35 28% 5 of 29 3 of 4 2 of 2 8 of 33 1 of 1 1 of 1
Kevin Lee 16 of 29 55% 12 of 23 3 of 5 1 of 1 16 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 1
4 Al Iaquinta 17 of 61 27% 13 of 57 3 of 3 1 of 1 17 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Lee 24 of 60 40% 16 of 50 4 of 6 4 of 4 24 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Al Iaquinta 18 of 45 40% 16 of 42 1 of 2 1 of 1 18 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Lee 33 of 53 62% 30 of 49 3 of 4 0 of 0 33 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Edson Barboza
TKO (doctor stoppage) R5 2:18 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · Apr 21, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Lee 0 51 of 106 48% 64 of 119 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Edson Barboza 0 142 of 241 58% 233 of 344 4 of 9 44% 0 0 15:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Lee 0 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 40 of 64 62% 60 of 89 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:18
2 Kevin Lee 0 7 of 15 46% 9 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 34 of 46 73% 76 of 91 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:12
3 Kevin Lee 0 19 of 34 55% 30 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Edson Barboza 0 16 of 48 33% 19 of 51 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:11
4 Kevin Lee 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 38 of 56 67% 64 of 86 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:33
5 Kevin Lee 0 16 of 30 53% 16 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 14 of 27 51% 14 of 27 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:46
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Lee 51 of 106 48% 26 of 73 20 of 26 5 of 7 47 of 102 2 of 2 2 of 2
Edson Barboza 142 of 241 58% 138 of 236 3 of 4 1 of 1 46 of 122 0 of 0 96 of 119
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Lee 4 of 12 33% 2 of 9 0 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 40 of 64 62% 40 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 15 0 of 0 37 of 49
2 Kevin Lee 7 of 15 46% 5 of 12 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 11 2 of 2 2 of 2
Edson Barboza 34 of 46 73% 32 of 44 2 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 15 0 of 0 27 of 31
3 Kevin Lee 19 of 34 55% 8 of 20 9 of 11 2 of 3 19 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 16 of 48 33% 14 of 45 1 of 2 1 of 1 16 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Kevin Lee 5 of 15 33% 3 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 38 of 56 67% 38 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 17 0 of 0 32 of 39
5 Kevin Lee 16 of 30 53% 8 of 19 7 of 9 1 of 2 16 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 14 of 27 51% 14 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0 14 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Tony Ferguson
Submission (triangle choke) R3 4:02 · UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · Oct 07, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tony Ferguson 0 54 of 103 52% 57 of 106 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:02
Kevin Lee 0 55 of 119 46% 71 of 137 3 of 6 50% 0 0 4:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tony Ferguson 0 13 of 23 56% 14 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Kevin Lee 0 27 of 58 46% 38 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:16
2 Tony Ferguson 0 27 of 54 50% 27 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Lee 0 22 of 49 44% 22 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Tony Ferguson 0 14 of 26 53% 16 of 28 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Kevin Lee 0 6 of 12 50% 11 of 19 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tony Ferguson 54 of 103 52% 40 of 81 6 of 13 8 of 9 40 of 85 1 of 1 13 of 17
Kevin Lee 55 of 119 46% 41 of 101 14 of 18 0 of 0 35 of 90 0 of 1 20 of 28
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tony Ferguson 13 of 23 56% 7 of 16 2 of 3 4 of 4 10 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 4
Kevin Lee 27 of 58 46% 22 of 52 5 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 32 0 of 0 18 of 26
2 Tony Ferguson 27 of 54 50% 21 of 42 3 of 8 3 of 4 27 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Lee 22 of 49 44% 15 of 40 7 of 9 0 of 0 22 of 48 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Tony Ferguson 14 of 26 53% 12 of 23 1 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 12 1 of 1 10 of 13
Kevin Lee 6 of 12 50% 4 of 9 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 2 of 2