Career Averages - Lucas Rocha
Career Averages - Stewart Nicoll
Lucas Rocha
Stewart Nicoll
Lucas Rocha - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Rocha | 0 | 115 of 226 | 50% | 130 of 244 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 45 of 138 | 32% | 46 of 139 | 2 of 20 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas Rocha | 0 | 15 of 40 | 37% | 15 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 14 of 38 | 36% | 14 of 38 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 | |
| 2 | Lucas Rocha | 0 | 40 of 87 | 45% | 49 of 96 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 21 of 54 | 38% | 22 of 55 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Lucas Rocha | 0 | 60 of 99 | 60% | 66 of 108 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 10 of 46 | 21% | 10 of 46 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Rocha | 115 of 226 | 50% | 81 of 184 | 30 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 100 of 205 | 11 of 15 | 4 of 6 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 45 of 138 | 32% | 41 of 133 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 45 of 135 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas Rocha | 15 of 40 | 37% | 9 of 32 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 14 of 38 | 36% | 11 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Lucas Rocha | 40 of 87 | 45% | 28 of 70 | 11 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 31 of 74 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 4 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 21 of 54 | 38% | 20 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Lucas Rocha | 60 of 99 | 60% | 44 of 82 | 14 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 55 of 94 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 10 of 46 | 21% | 10 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Lucas Rocha based on his brain over gut feeling. He notes Lucas is the more dangerous fighter and that Stewart doesn't like forward pressure. However, he acknowledges Lucas's poor takedown defense and the risk of being taken down. He does not bet the moneyline but suggests under 2.5 rounds as a play.
Big Brady leans slightly toward Stewart Nicoll, expecting takedowns to come easy and Nicoll to find a submission. He notes Nicoll is a talented grappler with nasty ground and pound, but made a mistake in his last fight by getting caught in a guillotine. He acknowledges Lucas Rocha is dangerous on the feet with power and flying knees, but has no striking or takedown defense. Brady sees it as a striker vs grappler matchup and picks Nicoll by second-round submission.
Cody picks Nicoll but is hesitant due to his previous loss by guillotine. He notes Rocha's inability to grapple and Nicoll's path to victory, but worries about travel and Brazilian judging. He suggests checking Nicoll's arrival in Brazil.
Lucrative James picks Stewart Nicoll as an underdog, citing Nicoll's tenacious grappling and takedown ability. He acknowledges Lucas Rocha's striking advantage and knockout power, but believes Nicoll's wrestling and cardio will be decisive. He notes that Rocha has been taken down multiple times in past fights and submitted. However, he is hesitant because Nicoll was submitted in his last fight and his jiu-jitsu may not be slick enough to finish Rocha. He sees the fight ending inside the distance.
Manpreet picks Nicoll at plus money, believing his grappling and control will stifle Rocha's Muay Thai. He notes Nicoll's BJJ black belt and ability to take the back, and expects him to win by decision. He considers the plus 100 a value line, as Nicoll would be a favorite if not for his debut loss.
Paul picks Nicoll, citing Rocha's poor grappling and ballooned record. He notes Nicoll's BJJ black belt and physical strength, and expects him to take Rocha down and submit or control him. He warns about travel concerns but sees value.
The MMA Guru picks Stewart Nicoll over Lucas Rocha, believing Rocha is too small for flyweight at 5'3". He trusts Nicoll's physicality, grappling, and Australian fighting spirit. He predicts a decision win or late submission/TKO via ground and pound.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Carpenter | 0 | 34 of 60 | 56% | 36 of 62 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 4:38 |
| Lucas Rocha | 0 | 17 of 41 | 41% | 21 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clayton Carpenter | 0 | 23 of 40 | 57% | 25 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:38 |
| Lucas Rocha | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 12 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Clayton Carpenter | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 11 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:00 |
| Lucas Rocha | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Carpenter | 34 of 60 | 56% | 22 of 45 | 7 of 8 | 5 of 7 | 20 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 16 |
| Lucas Rocha | 17 of 41 | 41% | 10 of 32 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 39 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clayton Carpenter | 23 of 40 | 57% | 19 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 16 |
| Lucas Rocha | 9 of 24 | 37% | 5 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Clayton Carpenter | 11 of 20 | 55% | 3 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Lucas Rocha | 8 of 17 | 47% | 5 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Carpenter (-192), Rocha (+160)
Round 1
It’s fight time again. The Apex plays host to a dozen matchups of varied intrigue, with little in the way of immediate title stakes outside of the main attraction. That does not preclude plenty of frenzied violence and thrilling action, as anything is possible tonight. Combat commences in the flyweight division, as unbeaten Carpenter (7-0, 1-0 UFC) looks to stave off surging newcomer Rocha (17-1, 0-0 UFC) in what should be a wild one. Referee Mark Smith is prepped and ready to handle the speedy combatants, who come together to bump fists. Rocha moves straight to the driver’s seat, pressuring forward only to dodge a pair of jabs flying at his face. Rocha jabs out with a foot, and he wings a right hand over the top. When Carpenter kicks low, Rocha rails the body with a kick. Smith calls time to warn Rocha for his outstretched fingers, and they get back to quick one-after-another striking. Carpenter rushes into a brawl, and the Brazilian obliges him as the two trade hands, absorbing clean strikes and giving them back in volume. Rocha slows things down by hunting for a jump knee, and Carpenter backs off and suddenly blitzes forward to tackle Rocha to the mat. Carpenter lands in half guard, and Rocha scrambles madly but cannot get the American off of him. Carpenter lashes out with an elbow that rips Rocha’s left eyebrow wide open, and he gets pulled back to the guard briefly. Blood leaks down Rocha’s face and into his eye, and he remains nullified with Carpenter’s effective heavy shoulder pressure. Carpenter postures up again to bean Rocha again with another powerful elbow, and the mat around the fighters is quickly gaining stains that will never be cleaned. “Fenomeno” fights off an arm-triangle setup and bucks his hips at the right time to sit up, and Carpenter meets him every step of the way and keeps him stuck thanks to a front choke. Carpenter bowls Rocha to his back again, where he claims full mount briefly. Rocha shifts his hips to pull Carpenter to half guard, but he absorbs another elbow or two in the process. Rocha thinks about a leglock off his back, and Carpenter sees it coming and rains down offense to break it up. The unbeaten fighter keeps jackhammering elbows down, causing additional damage on Rocha’s nose, and the horn sounds.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Carpenter
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Carpenter
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Carpenter
Round 2
The doctors are able to temporarily stifle the bleeding of Rocha’s eyebrow between rounds, but a few strikes may restart the flow. Rocha, knowing a trigger-happy doctor might wave things off, starts out even more aggressively than the last round. Rocha walks through several jabs that open him up further, rushing after Carpenter to throw wild strikes and tag the unbeaten man with a knee. Carpenter sweeps the leg with a kick, and he catches Rocha coming in with a few body kicks. Carpenter mixes in a takedown, crashing through the hips with a double-leg takedown to plant Rocha on his seat. As Rocha tries to recover, Carpenter spins around to take the Brazilian’s back and hook in a body triangle. Rocha pushes off the fence with his foot, but Carpenter is more occupied with hunting down a rear-naked choke.
The forearm slides beneath the chin and is immediately tight, but Rocha is insanely tough and grits it out. Rocha fights the hands, even landing a few strikes from behind his own head, but the choke is not going anywhere. As Carpenter sits up slightly to squeeze with all his might, Rocha’s hands go limp and he loses consciousness.
Smith recognizes this instantly and breaks them up, with Carpenter standing up triumphantly to check his hair. This is a solid win for the still-unbeaten Carpenter, who becomes the first man to submit his opponent.
The Official Result
Clayton Carpenter def. Lucas Rocha R2 2:12 via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Clayton Carpenter, citing his slick grappling and aggressive submission hunting. He notes Carpenter's fast pace and ability to set the tone early, while Lucas Rocha's upright stance makes him vulnerable to takedowns. Angelo believes Carpenter's offensive wrestling will be the deciding factor, as Rocha has shown poor defensive wrestling. He expects Carpenter to win via takedowns and control, calling it a straightforward pick.
Big Brady picks Clayton Carpenter to win by second-round knockout. He likes Carpenter's striking, wrestling, and grappling, and notes he is a high-level black belt. He criticizes Rocha's takedown defense, durability, and tendency to get dropped in fights. Rocha was taken down easily by Bittencourt on the Contender Series before landing a comeback KO. Brady expects Carpenter to dominate and potentially finish, though he acknowledges ring rust could be a factor after a 19-month layoff.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Rocha's record is built on beating can crushers and that he got knocked cold by some dude. He points out Rocha is only 5'3" and lacks athleticism, making him ripe to be run over by better athletes like Carpenter.
Daniel highlights Carpenter's size, durability, and grappling advantage over the smaller Rocha, who is a former strawweight. He notes that Rocha is a slow starter who often gets beaten up early but comes back. Daniel believes Carpenter's physicality will allow him to dominate the first two rounds and win a decision, though a finish wouldn't surprise him.
Carpenter is expected to showcase his grappling dominance against Rocha, who has shown issues dealing with opponents that take his back and control him from that position. Despite Rocha's impressive 17-1 record, Carpenter should grind out the fight and pick up his eighth win in as many fights.
The MMA Guru picks Lucas Rocha over Clayton Carpenter, citing Rocha's higher activity, finishing ability, and experience. He notes that Carpenter has been out for a while, which may indicate injury issues, and that Rocha is a 'dog' with more savagery and switch-hitting ability. He also mentions that shorter flyweights are hard to hold down, which could neutralize Carpenter's technical grappling.
Zane thinks Carpenter will whip Rocha, comparing him to Francis Marshall as a wild, all-offense fighter with no breaks. He notes Rocha got lucky against a glass cannon on the Contender Series and lacks athleticism. Zane believes Carpenter's strength and athleticism will overwhelm Rocha, who seems untrained and self-taught.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.
Stewart Nicoll - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Costa | 1 | 43 of 89 | 48% | 47 of 97 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 47 of 99 | 47% | 47 of 99 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandro Costa | 0 | 20 of 46 | 43% | 20 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 27 of 59 | 45% | 27 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Alessandro Costa | 1 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 27 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 20 of 40 | 50% | 20 of 40 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Costa | 43 of 89 | 48% | 26 of 67 | 11 of 13 | 6 of 9 | 41 of 85 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 47 of 99 | 47% | 26 of 73 | 12 of 16 | 9 of 10 | 47 of 99 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandro Costa | 20 of 46 | 43% | 11 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 8 | 20 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 27 of 59 | 45% | 13 of 42 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 10 | 27 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alessandro Costa | 23 of 43 | 53% | 15 of 33 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 20 of 40 | 50% | 13 of 31 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-400); Nicoll (+300)
Round 1
It has not been sunshine and rainbows for these two flyweights colliding, winner of just two of their five combined appearances in the promotion thus far. Costa (14-5, 2-3 UFC) is the one who has actually prevailed, while proud Aussie Nicoll (8-2, 0-2 UFC) is aiming for his first UFC triumph. Standing guard over the flyweights will be referee Chris Tognoni, who stands back as they scurry towards one another to touch gloves.
Costa leads off pressuring forward, and this puts him in the path of a sudden spin kick from the Aussie. Costa shrugs it off and looses a pair of kicks, and he watches a spinning back kick soar past his face. Nicoll goes to the well again with another spinning kick, and it bangs into the guard. He tosses out a spinning back fist, and nearly has his leg kicked out when he plants his feet again. Costa jackhammers the front leg again, and it does not take many for Nicoll to think about another way in. Both men keep low bases as if to prepare against and preemptively defend a takedown, thus resulting in a tit-for-tat kickboxing affair. Nicoll stands in the pocket too long and gets battered back with a trio of fast punches, and he shakes his head as if to motion that he was not caught. Costa celebrates his handiwork by ripping a left to the ribs, and he has his guard up to block the eventual spin.
Costa rattles punches off the guard and kicks the front leg, and he nails the Aussie with a few punches. Nicoll has to take a quick count of his teeth before re-engaging, where he is met with sweeping calf kicks. Nicoll offers up his own leg kick on the inside, and they trade their leg-based strikes back-and-forth. Costa hammers the body again, and Nicoll crashes the pocket to grip hold of a single. “Nono” says “no no” to the takedown effort and drives Nicoll back, and he ducks a spinning back fist and catches the Aussie. Nicoll grins after absorbing a strike or two, and he plants his shin on Costa’s lead calf. Costa punches high and ducks down to shoot, but he elects instead to drive a flying knee into the chin. Nicoll gets hurt with a body shot, and he counters Costa coming in with a fierce right hand and offers up a spinning back fist but is taking shots on the way out. With Nicoll grinning like a banshee, the round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Round 2
The flyweights touch gloves to start off the round, and Nicoll reintroduces himself with a jabbing front kick. It partially grazes the up, so he offers up an apology as there is no stoppage. Costa steps in with a left and gets clubbed with a check left hook. Costa surges forward with a pair of hooks, backing off to not get caught on the way out. Costa thumps the leg with a kick and slaps at Nicoll with an overhand right, and he is well aware when Nicoll offers back a spinning back kick. Nicoll tries a leaping back fist that does not do anything, and Costa shoots in for a double and is a hair away from getting Nicoll down. Nicoll frames off but ends up getting dropped on his head, with Costa taking his back. Nicoll takes a few elbows to the back of the head as he looks to wriggle Costa off his back standing, and Costa readjusts himself to not slide off. Costa disengages the back take and the two return to the center of the cage offering jabs.
Costa goes to the body with a kick, and Nicoll does the same. Nicoll sneaks in two punches, and he follows them with two more and a level change. Costa puts his back to the fence and uses his leverage to turn Nicoll around and lean him on the cage. Costa turns his foe around to knee him in the gut, and he ducks away when Nicoll hurls punches at him. Costa loads up with power punches, and he bangs heavy hooks off the sides of Nicoll’s dome. A takedown falls apart, and Costa knees Nicoll square in the face. Nicoll smiles back at him. Costa surprises Nicoll with a spinning back elbow, and he follows it with a jump knee and may have hurt Nicoll. The Brazilian strikes out with another flying knee, and instead of continuing to throw hands and feet, he grapples. Costa looks for a standing back take, but ends up getting wrenched off and has to reset. Costa eventually telegraphs a shot, and Nicoll stands him up.
Winding up with everything he has as seconds remain on the clock, the Lobo Gym MMA fighter unleashes a ferocious left hook that smashes square into Nicoll’s liver. Nicoll collapses to his knees, totally defeated, and Costa only needs one single finalizing punch that connects while Tognoni is already intervening.
What a body shot, and what a performance from “Nono” to put himself back to a .500 UFC fighter. Bas Rutten is smiling somewhere after that broken liver showcase.
The Official Result
Alessandro Costa def. Stewart Nicoll R2 4:56 via KO (Punch to the Body)
Angelo picks Alessandro Costa, believing he is better than his record and will bust up Stewart Nicoll. He notes Costa's power, leg kicks, and striking accuracy, while Nicoll is hitable on the feet and his takedowns are desperate. Angelo dismisses Costa's last loss due to a freak foot injury and expects Costa to be well-prepared for Nicoll's wrestling.
Big Brady picks Alessandro Costa by second-round knockout. He likes Costa's power, opportunistic jiu-jitsu, and takedown defense. He criticizes Nicoll's wrestling, noting he went 2-for-20 on takedowns against Lucas Rocha, who has no takedown defense. He expects Costa to knock out Nicoll on the feet.
Cody picks Costa, citing his takedown defense and power. He expects Costa to stuff Nicoll's takedowns and land heavy shots, winning by decision or late TKO.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Costa confidently. He emphasizes that Nicoll is too excitable and not technical enough, often making wrong moves and allowing opponents to dictate. Costa's aggression and physicality should overwhelm Nicoll, who has shown a tendency to leapfrog into submissions and get overexcited.
The host sees potential value on Nicoll due to Costa's weakness on the ground, but is not confident enough to bet pre-fight. He notes Nicoll's persistent wrestling could exploit Costa's poor ground game, but Costa's power and takedown defense make it risky. He prefers to watch for live betting.
James picks Alessandro Costa via TKO in round two, citing Costa's athleticism, striking power, and training with Diego Lopez. He notes Nicoll's limited striking and tendency to be submitted, but warns Costa has poor round threes and has been knocked out twice. He believes Costa's physicality and finishing ability will be enough to get the job done inside the distance, as he has in his other UFC wins.
The host believes Costa is the better striker with a nasty calf kick and good enough grappling to neutralize Nicoll. He notes Nicoll's two-fight losing streak and struggles in the UFC. He expects Costa to win inside the distance, possibly via TKO from the calf kick. He is willing to parlay Costa.
Paul picks Costa, noting Nicoll's poor wrestling and durability issues. He expects Costa to win, possibly by KO, but warns the moneyline is steep.
The MMA Guru picks Alessandro Costa, noting he dropped Erceg and has finishes, while Stewart Nicoll looked incapable of causing harm in his last fight. He believes Costa's explosiveness will lead to a TKO victory.
Zane picks Costa confidently, noting that Costa is a reliable action fighter who dictates the pace with aggression and physicality. He sees Nicoll as too excitable and not technical enough, prone to making wrong moves and getting overwhelmed. Costa's determination to go forward and toughness should overcome Nicoll's lack of composure.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Rocha | 0 | 115 of 226 | 50% | 130 of 244 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 45 of 138 | 32% | 46 of 139 | 2 of 20 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas Rocha | 0 | 15 of 40 | 37% | 15 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 14 of 38 | 36% | 14 of 38 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 | |
| 2 | Lucas Rocha | 0 | 40 of 87 | 45% | 49 of 96 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 21 of 54 | 38% | 22 of 55 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Lucas Rocha | 0 | 60 of 99 | 60% | 66 of 108 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 10 of 46 | 21% | 10 of 46 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Rocha | 115 of 226 | 50% | 81 of 184 | 30 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 100 of 205 | 11 of 15 | 4 of 6 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 45 of 138 | 32% | 41 of 133 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 45 of 135 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas Rocha | 15 of 40 | 37% | 9 of 32 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 14 of 38 | 36% | 11 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Lucas Rocha | 40 of 87 | 45% | 28 of 70 | 11 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 31 of 74 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 4 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 21 of 54 | 38% | 20 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Lucas Rocha | 60 of 99 | 60% | 44 of 82 | 14 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 55 of 94 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 10 of 46 | 21% | 10 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Lucas Rocha based on his brain over gut feeling. He notes Lucas is the more dangerous fighter and that Stewart doesn't like forward pressure. However, he acknowledges Lucas's poor takedown defense and the risk of being taken down. He does not bet the moneyline but suggests under 2.5 rounds as a play.
Big Brady leans slightly toward Stewart Nicoll, expecting takedowns to come easy and Nicoll to find a submission. He notes Nicoll is a talented grappler with nasty ground and pound, but made a mistake in his last fight by getting caught in a guillotine. He acknowledges Lucas Rocha is dangerous on the feet with power and flying knees, but has no striking or takedown defense. Brady sees it as a striker vs grappler matchup and picks Nicoll by second-round submission.
Cody picks Nicoll but is hesitant due to his previous loss by guillotine. He notes Rocha's inability to grapple and Nicoll's path to victory, but worries about travel and Brazilian judging. He suggests checking Nicoll's arrival in Brazil.
Lucrative James picks Stewart Nicoll as an underdog, citing Nicoll's tenacious grappling and takedown ability. He acknowledges Lucas Rocha's striking advantage and knockout power, but believes Nicoll's wrestling and cardio will be decisive. He notes that Rocha has been taken down multiple times in past fights and submitted. However, he is hesitant because Nicoll was submitted in his last fight and his jiu-jitsu may not be slick enough to finish Rocha. He sees the fight ending inside the distance.
Manpreet picks Nicoll at plus money, believing his grappling and control will stifle Rocha's Muay Thai. He notes Nicoll's BJJ black belt and ability to take the back, and expects him to win by decision. He considers the plus 100 a value line, as Nicoll would be a favorite if not for his debut loss.
Paul picks Nicoll, citing Rocha's poor grappling and ballooned record. He notes Nicoll's BJJ black belt and physical strength, and expects him to take Rocha down and submit or control him. He warns about travel concerns but sees value.
The MMA Guru picks Stewart Nicoll over Lucas Rocha, believing Rocha is too small for flyweight at 5'3". He trusts Nicoll's physicality, grappling, and Australian fighting spirit. He predicts a decision win or late submission/TKO via ground and pound.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 15 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 15 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | 8 of 17 | 47% | 4 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 13 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesus Aguilar | 8 of 17 | 47% | 4 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 13 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nicoll (-230), Aguilar (+190)
Round 1
In what might become a yearly stop for the UFC, the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia, is playing host to the promotion today. Like UFC 284 last year, 2024’s UFC 305 package contains plenty of locals with favorable matchups that could result in some thrilling violence. Nine of the 12 fights tonight feature a competitor from or repping Australia or New Zealand, with one pitting an Aussie against a Kiwi, and the other two seeing a Chinese welterweight take center stage. We kick things off with a classic matchup of Australia vs. Mexico as Nicoll (8-0, 0-0 UFC) introduces himself to the organization with the crowd at his back. He battles the overweight Aguilar (10-2, 2-1 UFC), who hit the scales a pound and a half above the flyweight limit to surrender 20% of his purse to his opponent. The referee for the first fight of the night is Steve Perceval, and he kicks things off as the fighters touch gloves. Nicoll introduces himself with a leg kick effort, and his second is met with counters from the Mexican. Aguilar charges him, swinging fists and ultimately clinching up before suddenly grabbing the Aussie from behind. Nicoll responds with a kimura sweep that puts them both on the mat, and he flips around to take the back of his opponent and get hooks in. Nicoll opens up with powerful punches from both sides of the head, and he briefly flattens Aguilar out as he beats on him. Aguilar gets to his knees and spins himself around to put his back on the mat, and Nicoll does not mind this as he hacks down with elbows. Nicoll knees the belly when he sits postured up, and he lands a few punches but finds himself off-balance. Nicoll gets rolled upside-down, and he finds himself doing a handstand with Aguilar hanging on in an effort to throw him down. When Nicoll recovers, Aguilar jumps guard with a guillotine choke, and it is immediately tight.
Aguilar fastens his legs around the waist of his opponent, and Nicoll tries to slither his neck out but he is bone dry and trapped in a precarious position. Aguilar alerts Perceval that Nicoll may be out, and Perceval tests the resistance of Nicoll’s right arm. It flops to the ground. Perceval lifts the lifeless limb again before he intervenes, and he and Aguilar roll Nicoll to his back to demonstrate that Nicoll is completely unconscious with his eyes eerily stuck open.
Aguilar sits up and lifts the legs of his defeated opponent to flow the blood back to Nicoll’s cranium. Just like that, Nicoll has been ejected from the ranks of the unbeaten, and Aguilar has totally silenced the crowd. It may be disappointing to Aguilar that he has forfeited his opportunity to claim post-fight bonus money by missing weight, as that sleep-inducing submission might have been otherwise worthy of an extra check.
The Official Result
Jesus Santos Aguilar def. Stewart Nicoll R1 2:39 via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Angelo picks Stewart Nicoll to win based on his wrestling advantage, believing Nicoll can get takedowns and control the fight. However, he is hesitant because Nicoll is a 2-to-1 favorite against a tough opponent in Jesus Aguilar, who is dangerous with guillotines. Angelo notes that Nicoll is undefeated but untested at this level, similar to Danny Barlow last week, so he avoids betting but leans Nicoll.
Big Brady picks Stewart Nicoll to win by second-round submission. He notes Nicoll's wrestling and ground-and-pound are very good, and that Jesus Aguilar has 40% takedown defense and has been submitted in both of his losses. He believes the takedowns will come fairly easy for Nicoll, and once on top, his ground-and-pound can open up submissions. He acknowledges this is Nicoll's toughest test to date but is confident in his path to victory.
Cody is impressed with Nicoll's regional tape, noting his relentless takedowns, top control, and nasty elbows. He believes Aguilar has poor takedown defense and has been controlled by lesser wrestlers. Cody expects Nicoll to dominate and possibly submit Aguilar.
Daniel Vreeland picks Stewart Nicoll to win, expecting him to take Aguilar down and control the fight. He notes that Aguilar has poor takedown defense and low output, while Nicoll has good cardio, strength, and tenacity. Vreeland believes Nicoll will grind out a decision or submission.
The host leans to Nicoll, citing his technical superiority in all aspects of MMA against Aguilar. He notes Nicoll's grinding grappling approach and BJJ black belt, but acknowledges Aguilar's power and guillotine threat. He expects Nicoll to dominate and finish within two or three rounds, possibly by club and sub.
Paul likes Nicoll's wrestling and pace, and notes that Aguilar has been taken down by everyone who tried. He mentions Nicoll's submission threat and expects a finish. Paul calls Nicoll a legit prospect and believes the UFC gave him a favorable matchup.
The MMA Guru picks Stewart Nicoll over Jesus Aguilar. He notes that Aguilar is explosive but Nicoll is similarly sized and has a grappling style that pins opponents against the cage, dragging them down and controlling them on the ground. He criticizes Aguilar's wins over Menona and Shannon Ross, calling Ross an easy KO for everyone. He also mentions Nicoll's home country advantage in Australia. He expects Nicoll to control the fight with his grinding style.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Lucas Rocha based on his brain over gut feeling. He notes Lucas is the more dangerous fighter and that Stewart doesn't like forward pressure. However, he acknowledges Lucas's poor takedown defense and the risk of being taken down. He does not bet the moneyline but suggests under 2.5 rounds as a play.
Big Brady leans slightly toward Stewart Nicoll, expecting takedowns to come easy and Nicoll to find a submission. He notes Nicoll is a talented grappler with nasty ground and pound, but made a mistake in his last fight by getting caught in a guillotine. He acknowledges Lucas Rocha is dangerous on the feet with power and flying knees, but has no striking or takedown defense. Brady sees it as a striker vs grappler matchup and picks Nicoll by second-round submission.
Cody picks Nicoll but is hesitant due to his previous loss by guillotine. He notes Rocha's inability to grapple and Nicoll's path to victory, but worries about travel and Brazilian judging. He suggests checking Nicoll's arrival in Brazil.
Lucrative James picks Stewart Nicoll as an underdog, citing Nicoll's tenacious grappling and takedown ability. He acknowledges Lucas Rocha's striking advantage and knockout power, but believes Nicoll's wrestling and cardio will be decisive. He notes that Rocha has been taken down multiple times in past fights and submitted. However, he is hesitant because Nicoll was submitted in his last fight and his jiu-jitsu may not be slick enough to finish Rocha. He sees the fight ending inside the distance.
Manpreet picks Nicoll at plus money, believing his grappling and control will stifle Rocha's Muay Thai. He notes Nicoll's BJJ black belt and ability to take the back, and expects him to win by decision. He considers the plus 100 a value line, as Nicoll would be a favorite if not for his debut loss.
Paul picks Nicoll, citing Rocha's poor grappling and ballooned record. He notes Nicoll's BJJ black belt and physical strength, and expects him to take Rocha down and submit or control him. He warns about travel concerns but sees value.
The MMA Guru picks Stewart Nicoll over Lucas Rocha, believing Rocha is too small for flyweight at 5'3". He trusts Nicoll's physicality, grappling, and Australian fighting spirit. He predicts a decision win or late submission/TKO via ground and pound.
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