Career Averages - Lucas Almeida
Career Averages - Michael Aswell
Lucas Almeida
Michael Aswell
Lucas Almeida - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 2 | 30 of 54 | 55% | 34 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas Almeida | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 2 | 30 of 54 | 55% | 34 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Almeida | 9 of 21 | 42% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 30 of 54 | 55% | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 19 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas Almeida | 9 of 21 | 42% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 30 of 54 | 55% | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 19 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 16 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aswell (-150); Almeida (+125)
Round 1
Capping off the prelims is a featherweight contest that has raised some serious eyebrows in the last 24 hours. Almeida (15-4, 2-3 UFC) appeared at the weigh-ins with a right hand the size of a balloon, but the CABMMA—the Brazilian Commission—did not seem to deem that worthy of note. The betting line for Aswell (10-3, 0-1 UFC) has skyrocketed, and the optics do not look great. Referee Jason Herzog will serve as the sole arbiter of this bout, and the athletes do opt to touch gloves.
Aswell surges out of his corner ready to trade, and he walks down the Brazilian and slugs him in the face. The shorter Aswell gets inside early, setting up a few big right hands. Almeida reels from getting tagged from the overhand rights, and his eye is showing a little swelling already. Almeida backs off putting the cage behind him, and he leans back to take the sting out of Aswell’s punches but is taking punishment. Aswell knocks Almeida to his seat with a massive right hand, and Almeida climbs back up right into the left hand of his opponent. The Brazilian tries to throw back when he can, but Aswell is beating him to the punch and hurting him practically every time he touches him.
Aswell drives down a few hammerfists, and he switches to straight-up punches and an elbow or two. Herzog asks Almeida to fight back, but he is done like dinner after multiple knockdowns and a lot of head trauma.
With Aswell seated in full mount raining down punishment, Herzog has no choice but to step in and stop the “Beatdown of the Year” candidate. Not only did it appear that Almeida could not swing his right hand, but he rarely used it to defend himself. Brazilians are no longer undefeated tonight, but Almeida have been the most vulnerable of the bunch on the card given his apparent condition.
The Official Result
Michael Aswell def. Lucas Almeida R1 1:42 via TKO (Punches and Elbow)
Angelo picks Michael Aswell, citing his relentless pressure and high volume of strikes. He believes Aswell's pressure will overwhelm Lucas, who will be looking for big shots and getting hit multiple times in return. He notes Aswell's insane 9.1 significant strikes landed per minute.
Big Brady picks Lucas Almeida to win a decision, citing Almeida's power advantage and the fight being in Brazil. He notes Aswell lands high volume but lacks power, and that Almeida's big leg kicks and power shots will sway the judges. He expects a close fight going to the scorecards, with crowd reactions favoring Almeida.
Cody originally took Almeida but switched to Aswell, citing age and weight cut advantages. He notes Aswell's high volume and Almeida's lack of wrestling, but expects a close fight that could be influenced by Brazilian judging. He recommends the split decision prop.
Manpreet picks Aswell, citing Almeida's downward trajectory and Aswell's basic but effective striking and forward pressure. He believes Aswell will walk Almeida down, land his jab and cross, and win a decision. He notes Aswell's durability and full training camp at his natural weight class.
Paul picks Aswell, citing his youth, volume striking, and natural weight class. He notes Almeida's poor takedown defense and weight cut issues, but expects a close fight that could go to split decision. He suggests a split decision prop.
The MMA Guru picks Lucas Almeida over Michael Aswell, believing the odds are incorrect. He notes Aswell couldn't finish Bellagio and has lost recently, while Almeida had a close fight with Danny Silva. He predicts Almeida wins by finish or decision as an underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Silva | 0 | 82 of 137 | 59% | 85 of 141 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 74 of 240 | 30% | 78 of 244 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danny Silva | 0 | 24 of 43 | 55% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 17 of 52 | 32% | 18 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Danny Silva | 0 | 36 of 55 | 65% | 36 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 29 of 89 | 32% | 32 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Danny Silva | 0 | 22 of 39 | 56% | 22 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 28 of 99 | 28% | 28 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Silva | 82 of 137 | 59% | 45 of 96 | 14 of 18 | 23 of 23 | 81 of 133 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Lucas Almeida | 74 of 240 | 30% | 49 of 203 | 14 of 23 | 11 of 14 | 73 of 239 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danny Silva | 24 of 43 | 55% | 9 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 13 | 24 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Lucas Almeida | 17 of 52 | 32% | 8 of 37 | 7 of 11 | 2 of 4 | 16 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Danny Silva | 36 of 55 | 65% | 21 of 38 | 9 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 35 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Lucas Almeida | 29 of 89 | 32% | 21 of 78 | 2 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 29 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Danny Silva | 22 of 39 | 56% | 15 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Lucas Almeida | 28 of 99 | 28% | 20 of 88 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 28 of 99 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Danny Silva, noting his durability and the fact that he showed wrestling as a backup plan in his last fight. He acknowledges that Silva's striking defense is terrible and he will get hit, but believes he can outlast Lucas Almeida and potentially use takedowns. He is hesitant due to Silva's poor striking defense and the high price tag.
Big Brady picks Danny Silva, citing his youth, durability, volume, and wrestling/grappling upside. He questions Lucas Almeida's ground game, noting he gets stuck on his back. He predicts Silva will mix in takedowns and submit Almeida in the second round.
The host believes many are overlooking the Brazilian's chances, especially at plus 160 odds. He expects Almeida to utilize his Muay Thai approach to cut up Danny Silva and impress the judges, winning a decision.
The Guru picks Danny Silva over Lucas Almeida. He likes Silva's toughness, grit, and cardio shown on the contender series and in his UFC debut. He views Almeida as a 50/50 fighter with mixed results, and favors the prospect Silva. He predicts a 29-28 decision in a back-and-forth scrap.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 59 of 116 | 50% | 73 of 136 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Timmy Cuamba | 1 | 70 of 196 | 35% | 91 of 220 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas Almeida | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 13 of 26 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Timmy Cuamba | 1 | 22 of 59 | 37% | 30 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 2 | Lucas Almeida | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 22 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Timmy Cuamba | 0 | 32 of 84 | 38% | 36 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Lucas Almeida | 0 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 38 of 66 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Timmy Cuamba | 0 | 16 of 53 | 30% | 25 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Almeida | 59 of 116 | 50% | 35 of 87 | 14 of 17 | 10 of 12 | 48 of 100 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 16 |
| Timmy Cuamba | 70 of 196 | 35% | 43 of 153 | 13 of 28 | 14 of 15 | 65 of 190 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas Almeida | 13 of 26 | 50% | 6 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Timmy Cuamba | 22 of 59 | 37% | 13 of 42 | 3 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 21 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Lucas Almeida | 22 of 44 | 50% | 14 of 33 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 22 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Timmy Cuamba | 32 of 84 | 38% | 18 of 66 | 9 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 28 of 79 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Lucas Almeida | 24 of 46 | 52% | 15 of 35 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 13 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 16 |
| Timmy Cuamba | 16 of 53 | 30% | 12 of 45 | 1 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cuamba (-205), Almeida (+170)
Round 1
When he punted Michael Stack at the beginning of February, “Twilight Timmy” Cuamba (8-2, 0-1 UFC) could have scarcely predicted his UFC debut would come one week later. While it did not go his way against Bolaji Oki, Cuamba gets a second chance to make a first impression. He takes on aggressive Almeida (14-3, 1-2 UFC) and his 100% finish rate. Referee Mike Beltran dons his hard hat, and he tells the fighter’s it’s time to fight. The 145ers do not bother bumping fists, as Almeida wants to start something. He does that with a low kick, and he jabs the body shortly thereafter. Almeida cuts Cuamba off around the cage, walking him down and throwing a low kick. Cuamba pays him back with a speedy one-two, and he gets off a jab on the outside. Another one-two from “Twilight Timmy” finds its home on the chin, and Almeida shakes it off and continues pressuring. The Brazilian swipes out with a left hand, and he chips at the front leg with kicks. Cuamba stands his man up with a left hand, but the right misses. On the way back, Cuamba plants a stern kick on the lead leg of his adversary. Almeida jabs with the fall of his foot, and a ferocious one-two stuns Cuamba and sits him down. Almeida tries to pound him out with ground strikes while leaning on Cuamba, but Cuamba does not go all the way down and instead muscles his way back upright. Almeida keeps firing the right hand, drawing a shot in response from the Las Vegas native. Almeida stands his foe up and knees him once before splitting off, and he returns to stalking mode. Two punches get around the guard, and Cuamba takes them flush and keeps retreating. Almeida tags him with another right hand to set him down, and Cuamba scrambles and gets up. To take some of the venom out of his foe’s shots, Cuamba presses Almeida against the cage wall for a time. Almeida escapes and starts potshotting Cuamba, until Cuamba is tired of the one-sided exchanges and starts brawling. Cuamba dislodges the mouthpiece of his foe, but Almeida puts on the pace with punches and a high kick that wraps up around the guard. Almeida ducks back to dodge a head kick, and he eats a right hand while plodding forward. Cuamba strikes the body a few times, and he makes it to the end of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Almeida
Round 2
Almeida is loaded for bear to start off the second round, as he gets right back to cutting Cuamba off while throwing hands. Cuamba sits down on single strikes, thumping a left to the body and one to the head. Almeida lunges forward, and Cuamba counters him with a sharp left. Cuamba checks a low kick and tosses one back, and they trade jabs shortly thereafter. The jabs are landed again at the same time, and Cuamba again targets the liver with a left. Almeida steps through a punch to wing three of his own, and he scores a solid low kick. They both start swinging bungalows, and Almeida catches Cuamba with a clean left hand that drops “Twilight Timmy” to a knee. Cuamba sits up and rushes after a single-leg takedown, but Almeida is able to shove him away without much concern. Cuamba gets his sea legs with the successful dilatory tactic, but he is not slowing Almeida’s momentum. Almeida chops at his leg and walks through a jab to rifle off a right hand, and he slips a counter jab. Almeida sinks in a left hand and laughs off a leg kick, and a one-two along with two hooks at least partially connect. Almeida surges into a left hand, and he clips Cuamba once more as he lines up punches to the head and then body. Cuamba strafes away, and Almeida is on him with a left to the body and right to the head. Cuamba’s legs wobble, but Almeida is buttering his bread as he seems to find that right hand any time he wants. Cuamba scrambles to the side, and Almeida plants two fists and a head kick up top right before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 3
The fighters reach the last round and share a brief glove touch, and Almeida returns quickly to his predatory best. Walking Cuamba down, throwing jabs, follow-up punches, leg kicks and the occasional power strike, Almeida beats Cuamba to the punch while not getting answered by anything overly concerning. Cuamba slams a kick to the ribs, but it is one-and-done as Almeida walks him down. Cuamba shoots for a single, and he drags the Brazilian to his seat but does not establish control. Almeida turns the corner and pushes down on the back of Cuamba’s head to stop him from going anywhere until he moves enough to escape and reset. Almeida jabs the head and body without fear of reprisal, and he shrugs off a front kick to pump out more jabs. Cuamba lands at the end of a right hand, drawing a wide counter from his foe. They both jab at one another, and Almeida’s range gives up the upper hand. Cuamba lands once, but Almeida rings him up for four in the same flurry. Almeida just misses with a high kick, and they double jab at one another. Almeida hacks at the front leg and absorbs a body kick, and the two start swinging recklessly. Cuamba catches his adversary with a left hook, and he moves to take the brunt out of the overhand right counter. Almeida collides his fist on the dome and spins with a wheel kick that buzzes the tower, and Cuamba decides two can spin and lands his own back kick on the belly. Cuamba closes in to strike, and although Almeida lands two on the inside, Cuamba uses the momentum and a trip to put the Brazilian on the canvas. Cuamba sits up and drops down a few punches and some fierce elbows, and he looks for a finish with seconds to go and rains down blows until time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (30-27 Almeida)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (30-27 Almeida)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cuamba (29-27 Almeida)
The Official Result
Lucas Almeida def. Timothy Cuamba via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Lucas Almeida as an underdog, citing his deeper resume and higher level of competition. He notes Lucas is a powerful striker who comes forward, while Timmy is more technical but less experienced. He thinks Lucas's power and chin could be the difference, though Timmy's accuracy is a concern. He mentions the plus 165 odds are appealing.
Cody picks Lucas Almeida as a dog, arguing that Cuamba is a low-volume striker who relies on a knockout and has shown poor cardio and wrestling. He notes that Almeida has better wins and has fought tougher competition, including a competitive fight with Daniel Zellhuber. Cody believes Almeida's volume and leg kicks can overwhelm Cuamba, and that the line is too wide for a fighter of Cuamba's level.
Daniel Vreeland is concerned about Lucas Almeida's recent performances, noting he only landed two strikes in his last fight and looked stiff. He speculates a possible health issue. He likes Timothy Cuamba's technical soundness and ability to fight everywhere, though he's not the most physical. He believes Cuamba can pick Almeida apart and mix in wrestling.
Jacob picks Timmy, thinking he is the more technical striker and could mix in takedowns against Lucas's poor takedown defense. He notes Timmy held his own against Bolaji on short notice. He acknowledges Lucas is more dangerous but believes Timmy's technique will prevail.
Cuamba's lateral movement will frustrate Almeida, opening up takedown opportunities and allowing Cuamba to land damage from distance. The line is too wide for someone taking a step up in competition, but Cuamba's potential and body of work should get the judges' favor.
Paul agrees with Cody, stating that Cuamba is a low-volume Contender Series guy and that he would never bet that type of fighter at minus 200. He notes that Almeida gave Zellhuber a tough fight and that plus 180 is generous. Paul thinks Almeida can win with volume and pressure.
The MMA Guru picks Timmy Cuamba by decision. He notes Cuamba stepped up on short notice in his debut against Boki and took him to a split decision, showing composure. He thinks Cuamba has been tested and that Lucas Almeida's wins have asterisks, including a first-round KO loss to Andre Fili. He believes Cuamba's experience against a larger, powerful opponent in Boki will help him handle Almeida's physicality.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 1 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 25 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 1 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 25 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 20 of 36 | 55% | 16 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 15 |
| Lucas Almeida | 10 of 25 | 40% | 1 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 13 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 20 of 36 | 55% | 16 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 15 |
| Lucas Almeida | 10 of 25 | 40% | 1 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 13 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Lucas Almeida as an underdog, citing his real power and killer instinct. He acknowledges Fili's talent but distrusts his chin and lack of wrestling usage. He does not bet because both fighters are unreliable.
Big Brady picks Lucas Almeida to win by second-round KO, despite acknowledging Fili's wrestling path. He notes Fili hasn't wrestled much recently and isn't a dominant grappler like Pat Sabatini, so he expects the fight to stay standing. Brady highlights Almeida's 100% finish rate and power, while Fili has been finished 5 times and has a questionable chin. He believes Almeida will land a knockout as an underdog.
Cody picks Fili, arguing that Almeida is hittable and walks in a straight line. He notes that Fili has good footwork, a jab, and can mix in wrestling. Cody believes Fili will outpoint Almeida by striking and using takedowns to secure rounds. He expects a decision win for Fili, as Almeida's takedown defense is suspect and Fili is the more well-rounded fighter.
Jeff Fox picks Lucas Almeida as his dog, explaining that Almeida is a better striker and is fighting a guy on a skid. He thinks Almeida is a worthy gamble at plus 145.
Lucrative James picks Lucas Almeida as the value side. He believes Andre Fili has clear deficiencies in striking defense and chin, getting hurt in almost every fight. He thinks Fili's path is via wrestling, but Fili often chooses to stand and bang. Almeida hits hard, has good durability, and Fili's tendency to get cracked makes Almeida the play at underdog odds.
The host leans toward Fili but is not confident due to the chalk. He believes Fili's experience and grappling advantage should be the difference, as he can take Almeida down and grind out a decision. However, he warns that if Fili chooses to strike, he could get knocked out. He expects Fili to shoot multiple takedowns and win a decision, avoiding his first losing streak in the UFC.
Paul picks Fili, agreeing that Fili is the more experienced and well-rounded fighter. He notes that Fili has faced much tougher competition and has multiple paths to victory. Paul believes Fili's wrestling and striking will be too much for Almeida, who is a banger but lacks defensive skills. He expects Fili to win by decision or potentially by submission.
The Guru picks Andre Fili over Lucas Almeida, noting Fili has looked good even in losses and has a reach and range advantage. He believes Almeida lacks the KO power to finish Fili and that Fili's wrestling will be a factor. He predicts a 29-28 decision win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Sabatini | 0 | 27 of 35 | 77% | 88 of 97 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 6:27 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pat Sabatini | 0 | 23 of 31 | 74% | 81 of 90 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Pat Sabatini | 0 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 7 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Sabatini | 27 of 35 | 77% | 25 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 31 |
| Lucas Almeida | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pat Sabatini | 23 of 31 | 74% | 23 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 30 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Pat Sabatini | 4 of 4 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Lucas Almeida | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sabatini (-190), Almeida (+160)
Round 1
In a fight that could end in the blink of an eye, submission specialist Sabatini (17-4, 4-1 UFC) takes on once-beaten finisher Almeida (14-1 1-0 UFC). Together, the two featherweights combine for 26 stoppages in their 31 pro wins, so referee Chris Tognoni could have his hands full. Before they throw down, they opt to bump fists. Almeida advances first, but Sabatini ducks any offense and pursues a quick takedown. Almeida fights off a trip attempt on the way back, and Sabatini looks for a body lock throw. Sabatini secures the drop, and he lands right in half guard while pinning Almeida to his back using his shoulder. Almeida sits up against the fence, but Sabatini hooks both his legs and peels him away from it. Sabatini smoothly maneuvers to keep Almeida trapped on the floor, and he drops down left hands. Sabatini pins Almeida’s right arm down to land several unanswered blows, and he frustrates the Brazilian with his active top control. When Almeida attempts to escape in some direction, Sabatini is aware and follows him every step of the way. Sabatini controls his foe and moves into mount briefly, while nullifying anything that Almeida can do to him. Sabatini leaps back into mount with 75 seconds left in the round, and he also traps Almeida’s arm behind the back and blasts him in the face with left hands. Sabatini hammers Almeida with a few elbows, and Almeida defenselessly takes them flush. Sabatini postures up and batters Almeida with punches and elbows, and Almeida is clinging to his foe with all he has left. Sabatini considers an armbar, but he thinks against it and elbows Almeida repeatedly. Sabatini smashes down with punches right to the bell, and Almeida has survived.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini
Round 2
Sabatini rushes out of his corner to tap gloves, and he immediately hunts for a single to make the Brazilian’s life miserable again. Almeida backs himself against the wall in defense, and Sabatini switches up to a body lock in pursuit of another trip. Sabatini drills a knee to the body and drops down low for a double, and he lets it go to snake his leg between Almeida’s. Sabatini successfully yanks Almeida to the floor, first bringing him to a knee and pushing him flat on his back. Sabatini slashes down with an elbow on the forehead to slice open a cut, and blood leaks down into Almeida’s eyes.
Sabatini transitions over to the side, man on a mission, and he sets up an arm-triangle choke while Almeida fails to clear his vision. The Philadelphia native locks it down and crushes with his shoulder and full body weight, and Almeida has no choice but to tap.
As Tognoni pulls them apart, Sabatini has just become the first fighter to ever finish the Brazilian featherweight, doing so in a spectacular and one-sided performance.
The Official Result
Pat Sabatini def. Lucas Almeida R2 1:48 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Angelo picks Pat Sabatini because he has a huge grappling advantage. He notes that Sabatini's chin is a concern after recent knockouts, but he has been recovering. Lucas Almeida has dangerous hands and good scramble skills, but Sabatini's takedowns and top control should be the difference. Angelo also considers a prop bet on Almeida inside the distance/decision no action.
Big Brady picks Lucas Almeida to win by first-round knockout. He likes both fighters but sees Almeida as a live dog due to his power and volume. Brady questions Sabatini's durability, noting he was hurt by Jamall Emmers and Damon Jackson. Almeida has a 100% finish rate and hits very hard, as seen in his fight with Daniel Zellhuber. Brady thinks Sabatini needs to wrestle early and often, but Almeida's takedown defense looks solid and he is physically strong. If Almeida can keep the fight standing for even a few minutes, he likely gets the knockout.
Cody is hesitant on Sabatini, acknowledging that Almeida has crushing power and improved cardio, and that Sabatini's chin is questionable. He notes that Sabatini's wrestling is good but not elite, and that he tends to stall rather than finish. Cody thinks Sabatini will likely get takedowns and control the fight, but it will be a butt-clencher because Almeida can shut the lights off at any time. He doesn't love the -200 price.
Connor also picks Sabatini, acknowledging that Almeida could KO him but trusting Sabatini's grappling. He notes that Sabatini is awkward on the feet but has shown the ability to recover and submit opponents after being hurt. Connor is less confident than he would like but sees Sabatini as the safer pick.
Daniel Levi leans toward Lucas Almeida, believing if the fight stays standing, Almeida will knock Sabatini out. He notes Sabatini's low volume and chin issues, citing knockouts by Damon Jackson and Jamall Emmers. However, he expresses hesitation because Sabatini's wrestling could neutralize Almeida, leading to a frustrating loss. He considers it a coin flip but prefers the dog.
Sabatini is the best grappler Almeida has faced. He should get takedowns and rack up control time, possibly even a submission. However, there is concern about how Sabatini rebounds from his knockout loss to Damon Jackson. Almeida has power but has shown grappling deficiencies. Sabatini wins by decision.
Paul is not laying -200 on Sabatini, calling him one-dimensional. He notes that Sabatini's takedowns are not always effective and that Almeida has power and durability. Paul thinks Almeida could be in big trouble if the fight stays on the feet, and he likes the plus money on Almeida. He also mentions a prop on Almeida by KO in round 1 at +700.
The MMA Guru picks Lucas Almeida over Pat Sabatini, arguing Sabatini doesn't do much with takedowns and has been stuffed before. He notes Almeida's durability and finishing ability, referencing his comeback win over Mike Trizano. He believes Almeida can survive bad positions on the ground and land a big shot on the feet.
Zane picks Sabatini despite concerns about his striking. He believes the grappling disparity is too wide and that Almeida takes too many risks standing, which will lead to Sabatini getting takedowns. Zane notes that Almeida has never faced a wrestler of Sabatini's caliber and that Sabatini can survive early trouble to win on the mat.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Almeida | 1 | 31 of 62 | 50% | 42 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Michael Trizano | 2 | 75 of 152 | 49% | 94 of 171 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas Almeida | 1 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 20 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Michael Trizano | 0 | 21 of 52 | 40% | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Lucas Almeida | 0 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 18 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Michael Trizano | 1 | 30 of 60 | 50% | 44 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:01 | |
| 3 | Lucas Almeida | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Trizano | 1 | 24 of 40 | 60% | 24 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Almeida | 31 of 62 | 50% | 17 of 45 | 12 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 26 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 5 |
| Michael Trizano | 75 of 152 | 49% | 32 of 95 | 16 of 22 | 27 of 35 | 54 of 121 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 31 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas Almeida | 12 of 26 | 46% | 7 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
| Michael Trizano | 21 of 52 | 40% | 5 of 29 | 6 of 8 | 10 of 15 | 21 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Lucas Almeida | 15 of 26 | 57% | 7 of 18 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Trizano | 30 of 60 | 50% | 9 of 33 | 8 of 12 | 13 of 15 | 26 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | |
| 3 | Lucas Almeida | 4 of 10 | 40% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Trizano | 24 of 40 | 60% | 18 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 24 |
Angelo sees Michael Trizano as a fun pressure striker with power and fight IQ, who beats brawling strikers. Lucas Almeida is a powerful striker who headhunts and is not technical. Angelo likes Trizano in this matchup but doesn't love the -250 odds.
Big Brady picks Michael Trizano to win by decision. He thinks Trizano is more experienced and has fought better competition, and should weather Almeida's early storm. He notes Almeida has 100% finish rate and power, but Trizano has never been knocked out and has good takedown defense and cardio. He expects Trizano to take over in rounds 2 and 3 and win a decision, but is not confident due to Trizano's tendency to be in close fights.
Cody is uncertain, noting Almeida's cardio issues in his contender series fight and Trizano's takedown defense problems. He thinks Almeida might win the first round but Trizano could take over later. He says he'll wait for weigh-ins and jokingly checks Trizano's hairstyle for confidence.
Daniel Levi leans toward Lucas Almeida as a plus-money underdog, arguing that Trizano's price is inflated and that Almeida has knockout power and durability. He notes that Trizano often wins close decisions and that Almeida's wild style could land a fight-ending shot. He recommends a one-unit bet on Almeida at +200, as he sees value in the dog.
Paul picks Trizano but expresses hesitation, noting Almeida's wild style and potential cardio issues. He thinks Trizano's experience and veteran savvy will allow him to win a decision or late finish, but he's not confident enough to bet heavily.
The MMA Guru picks Lucas Almeida to win by rear-naked choke. He calls Almeida a 'finishing machine' with a 100% finish rate. He notes Trizano has been submitted before and is coming off a beating. He believes Almeida's wild style and momentum will overwhelm Trizano, and he sees Almeida as a good underdog pick on the card.
Michael Aswell - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Riley | 0 | 100 of 177 | 56% | 113 of 192 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 0 | 61 of 180 | 33% | 107 of 233 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luke Riley | 0 | 33 of 56 | 58% | 45 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 0 | 20 of 59 | 33% | 54 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:05 | |
| 2 | Luke Riley | 0 | 35 of 70 | 50% | 35 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 0 | 30 of 81 | 37% | 36 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 3 | Luke Riley | 0 | 32 of 51 | 62% | 33 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 0 | 11 of 40 | 27% | 17 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Riley | 100 of 177 | 56% | 65 of 134 | 31 of 36 | 4 of 7 | 90 of 166 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 61 of 180 | 33% | 48 of 158 | 13 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 58 of 169 | 3 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luke Riley | 33 of 56 | 58% | 22 of 42 | 10 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 30 of 53 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 20 of 59 | 33% | 17 of 52 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 18 of 53 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Luke Riley | 35 of 70 | 50% | 22 of 55 | 10 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 34 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 30 of 81 | 37% | 22 of 69 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 29 of 77 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Luke Riley | 32 of 51 | 62% | 21 of 37 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 44 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 11 of 40 | 27% | 9 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Riley (-300); Aswell (+250)
Round 1
Jason Herzog is the referee. Aswell hurries to the center of the cage. Riley pumps out his jab. Riley rips the body but Aswell counters with a hard right. Aswell closes the distance behind a flurry of punches. Now in the clinch, Aswell lands short shots to the body. Aswell separates and they’re back at range. Aswell forces the clinch once again, and he goes back to landing short shots in close. Aswell lands a right on the break. Aswell lands a left hook in an exchange. They’re trading now, and both men land. Aswell follows a 1-2 into the clinch. They disengage and a right connects for Aswell. Riley lands a 1-2 to put Aswell on his heels. Another combination lands for Riley, but Aswell rolls with it. Aswell with a front kick. Riley with a left hook followed by a right hand. Another right lands for Riley, who seems to be getting comfortable. Riley catches Aswell with another right and then he tags his foe with a left hook. Aswell with a jab and then just misses a huge right. Aswell follows a low kick with a jab to the body. Riley pressures up until the horn, landing another right in the process.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Round 2
Riley kicks the lead leg. Riley lands a jab and avoids an Aswell combination. A laser right snaps Aswell’s head back. The Brit jabs the body, lands a right and then avoids Aswell’s counter. Another jab to the body for Riley, who follows with a combination. Aswell grabs a body lock after Riley slips to the floor. He’s attached to Riley’s back, landing knees to the thighs. They separate and are back at range. Aswell pressures and lands a jab. Riley continues to target the body with a jab. Riley has the more crisp strikes, and he seems to be landing more effectively in exchanges. A lead hook lands for Riley and then he goes body-head with a combo. Aswell moves in and lands a flurry. They trade in the pocket and both men land during an exchange. A couple solid rights land for Aswell as Riley forces the issue. Riley lands to the body, then a left hook to the head shortly thereafter. They continue to exchange but Riley puts his stamp on the round with one more solid right.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Round 3
Riley sticks his jab. Aswell attacks with a combination but Riley moves out of danger. Aswell gets in on a body lock against the fence. Aswell with short punches to the body as the Brit defends. Aswell switches to a single leg. Riley is defending well with his back to the cage. Aswell lets it go and they’re back at range. Aswell closes the distance behind punches but can’t maintain the clinch for long. A crisp right lands for Riley. Riley lands a jab to the body and a right hook to the head. The same combination lands a few seconds later for Riley. A right to the body lands with impact for Riley. Aswell grabs a front head lock and snaps Riley down. Riley is able to escape in short order and rips the body. Riley tags Aswell during an exchange. Aswell is undeterred and he lands some big shots of his own before clinching. He pushes Riley into the fence. Riley reverses and lands a flurry on the break. Riley follows a front kick with a right hand-left hook combo. Riley with another right to the body. Aswell is running out of time. Riley avoids a spinning attack from Aswell. Aswell fires a right hook. Riley lands once more before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Riley (30-27 Riley)
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Riley (30-27 Riley)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Riley (30-27 Riley)
The Official Result
Luke Riley def. Michael Aswell via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Luke Riley confidently, noting he dealt with adversity in his last fight (taken down four times but stayed composed and finished). He believes Luke is a much cleaner and faster striker, and expects him to win, calling it a showcase fight.
Big Brady picks Luke Riley, noting that Riley hits much harder and has more finishing upside than Michael Aswell. He points out that Aswell lands high volume but lacks power, and that his opponents often have bigger moments. He thinks Riley will have the bigger moments and win a damage-based decision, possibly with a knockdown. He also notes that Riley is the hometown favorite and the UFC is building him up.
Cody picks Riley but is not overly confident, noting Aswell's volume and durability. He thinks Riley's power and fan support will edge him a decision.
Connor picks Riley but is hesitant because he sees Aswell as a live dog. He notes that Aswell is a more principled striker and could win minutes, and Riley is volatile and can be dropped. However, Connor believes Riley has the dynamism to turn fights around, while Aswell lacks that ability. He compares Aswell to Garrett Armfield, who looks good in losses but cannot finish or change momentum.
Daniel thinks Riley is the more powerful guy with bigger moments, but Aswell has more volume. He expects a close decision win for Riley, noting the crowd factor in London. He's not fully confident because Aswell is tough and can hang in there.
Daniel Vreeland picks Luke Riley but expects a close fight. He thinks Riley is more athletic and hits harder, but Aswell is technically sound and will make it competitive. He predicts Riley wins a close decision rather than a knockout.
James picks Luke Riley but is hesitant, noting that Riley's style relies on landing a big shot and he can be outworked. He thinks Michael Aswell will have volume and durability, but Riley's power and crowd support in London could sway the judges. He mentions a bias towards Aswell but ultimately goes with Riley via decision.
The host picks Luke Riley by decision but is hesitant. He acknowledges Aswell's durability and consistent output, and notes that Riley is hittable. He expects a competitive fight where Riley's effective damage and hometown crowd give him the edge on the scorecards. He advises against betting Riley at -300.
Paul believes Riley's power and home crowd advantage will overcome Aswell's volume. He expects Riley to land the bigger shots and win a decision or late finish.
The MMA Guru picks Luke Riley to win by TKO, possibly via body shots in round two. He notes Riley has fast hands, power, and good recovery, while Aswell is slower and lacks finishing ability. He expects Riley to pressure, land body shots, and finish as Aswell fades. He also mentions Riley's momentum from a performance bonus in his debut.
Zane picks Riley because he believes Riley has better athleticism and can weather Aswell's early pressure, then find technical answers as the fight goes on. He cites Riley's ability to turn fights around, as seen against Bogdan Grad, whereas Aswell tends to fade and cannot change momentum when behind. Zane acknowledges Aswell's technical striking but sees his athletic limitations and stamina issues as decisive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 2 | 30 of 54 | 55% | 34 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas Almeida | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 2 | 30 of 54 | 55% | 34 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Almeida | 9 of 21 | 42% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 30 of 54 | 55% | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 19 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas Almeida | 9 of 21 | 42% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 30 of 54 | 55% | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 19 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 16 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aswell (-150); Almeida (+125)
Round 1
Capping off the prelims is a featherweight contest that has raised some serious eyebrows in the last 24 hours. Almeida (15-4, 2-3 UFC) appeared at the weigh-ins with a right hand the size of a balloon, but the CABMMA—the Brazilian Commission—did not seem to deem that worthy of note. The betting line for Aswell (10-3, 0-1 UFC) has skyrocketed, and the optics do not look great. Referee Jason Herzog will serve as the sole arbiter of this bout, and the athletes do opt to touch gloves.
Aswell surges out of his corner ready to trade, and he walks down the Brazilian and slugs him in the face. The shorter Aswell gets inside early, setting up a few big right hands. Almeida reels from getting tagged from the overhand rights, and his eye is showing a little swelling already. Almeida backs off putting the cage behind him, and he leans back to take the sting out of Aswell’s punches but is taking punishment. Aswell knocks Almeida to his seat with a massive right hand, and Almeida climbs back up right into the left hand of his opponent. The Brazilian tries to throw back when he can, but Aswell is beating him to the punch and hurting him practically every time he touches him.
Aswell drives down a few hammerfists, and he switches to straight-up punches and an elbow or two. Herzog asks Almeida to fight back, but he is done like dinner after multiple knockdowns and a lot of head trauma.
With Aswell seated in full mount raining down punishment, Herzog has no choice but to step in and stop the “Beatdown of the Year” candidate. Not only did it appear that Almeida could not swing his right hand, but he rarely used it to defend himself. Brazilians are no longer undefeated tonight, but Almeida have been the most vulnerable of the bunch on the card given his apparent condition.
The Official Result
Michael Aswell def. Lucas Almeida R1 1:42 via TKO (Punches and Elbow)
Angelo picks Michael Aswell, citing his relentless pressure and high volume of strikes. He believes Aswell's pressure will overwhelm Lucas, who will be looking for big shots and getting hit multiple times in return. He notes Aswell's insane 9.1 significant strikes landed per minute.
Big Brady picks Lucas Almeida to win a decision, citing Almeida's power advantage and the fight being in Brazil. He notes Aswell lands high volume but lacks power, and that Almeida's big leg kicks and power shots will sway the judges. He expects a close fight going to the scorecards, with crowd reactions favoring Almeida.
Cody originally took Almeida but switched to Aswell, citing age and weight cut advantages. He notes Aswell's high volume and Almeida's lack of wrestling, but expects a close fight that could be influenced by Brazilian judging. He recommends the split decision prop.
Manpreet picks Aswell, citing Almeida's downward trajectory and Aswell's basic but effective striking and forward pressure. He believes Aswell will walk Almeida down, land his jab and cross, and win a decision. He notes Aswell's durability and full training camp at his natural weight class.
Paul picks Aswell, citing his youth, volume striking, and natural weight class. He notes Almeida's poor takedown defense and weight cut issues, but expects a close fight that could go to split decision. He suggests a split decision prop.
The MMA Guru picks Lucas Almeida over Michael Aswell, believing the odds are incorrect. He notes Aswell couldn't finish Bellagio and has lost recently, while Almeida had a close fight with Danny Silva. He predicts Almeida wins by finish or decision as an underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolaji Oki | 0 | 136 of 303 | 44% | 136 of 303 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 0 | 118 of 309 | 38% | 118 of 309 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolaji Oki | 0 | 36 of 92 | 39% | 36 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 0 | 24 of 84 | 28% | 24 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Bolaji Oki | 0 | 54 of 108 | 50% | 54 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 0 | 42 of 100 | 42% | 42 of 100 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Bolaji Oki | 0 | 46 of 103 | 44% | 46 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 0 | 52 of 125 | 41% | 52 of 125 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolaji Oki | 136 of 303 | 44% | 92 of 243 | 36 of 48 | 8 of 12 | 135 of 300 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 118 of 309 | 38% | 92 of 270 | 19 of 29 | 7 of 10 | 117 of 305 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolaji Oki | 36 of 92 | 39% | 23 of 75 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 36 of 92 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 24 of 84 | 28% | 16 of 72 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 8 | 24 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Bolaji Oki | 54 of 108 | 50% | 31 of 77 | 19 of 25 | 4 of 6 | 53 of 106 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 42 of 100 | 42% | 35 of 87 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 42 of 98 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Bolaji Oki | 46 of 103 | 44% | 38 of 91 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 102 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 52 of 125 | 41% | 41 of 111 | 10 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 51 of 123 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Oki (-375), Aswell (+300)
Round 1
Ever the internationally focused organization, where else can one find a tried-and-true Texan throwing down with a “Zulu Warrior” from Belgium? Right here in the Octagon is where it’s at, as “The Texas Kid” Aswell (10-2, 0-0 UFC) has made it to the promotion after riding the wave of Fury FC for a few years. He meets Oki (9-2, 1-1 UFC), who would like nothing more than to punch a hole in Aswell’s chest a la Ray Longo. The third man in the cage for this lightweight affair will be referee Herb Dean, who clocks the two in as they bump fists. It’s off to the races for these two, who quickly engage quickly with stern right hands. Oki sinks down a heavy low kick, and the two crash together. Oki backs off and pushes out a few jabs, and he swings a leg kick that makes him topple over. Aswell cannot reach him before he recovers, but he does walk Oki down and try to nail him with a right hand. Instead, it is Oki who clubs Aswell, with a nasty right hand followed by a left to the body. Oki does this again, walking through Aswell’s hammers that are swinging at the same time. Aswell calms himself down to toss out a few calf kicks, and he dodges a hook to clip Oki with a right hand. Oki shows no ill effects, and Aswell walks him down with his jab outstretched. Oki drills Aswell on the temple with a straight right hand, and Aswell busts him in the chops and may have hurt him for a second as Oki retreats. It does not take long for Oki to get back to lobbing bombs, and he mixes in a few body shots but gets popped on the way out. These two are trading effectively and flush on one another, and their chins are holding up at the three-minute mark but the pace may not be maintainable as they continue. The right hand from Oki splits a cut on the corner of Aswell’s left eyebrow, with the blood leaking into his eye slightly but not hampering his sight. Aswell still nails Oki with heavy hands, setting them up with jabs and knocking him back with a pair of rights. Aswell connects with another right, walks through a jab and fires off a right hook. Oki snaps his head back with a long jab, and his left hook to the belly finds its home a couple times. Both lightweights land hard at the end of the round, with Aswell knocking Oki back a step and possibly stealing the round with one concussive blow.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aswell
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Aswell
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aswell
Round 2
A glove touch prompts the lightweights to get right in front of one another and punch. Oki backs him off with a step-in knee and tries to chain a high kick into it, but it is Aswell who stands firm and punches him square in the stomach. Oki sits down on big punches, but Aswell is able to roll with them just enough to not get his chin checked. Oki times another knee when Aswell steps in, and he slips back and tags Aswell as Aswell rushes at him. Oki measures several more body shots, and Aswell busts him in the chops with a right hand. Aswell fires off another right hook that snaps the head to the side, and Oki sticks his tongue out and puts three fists on Aswell’s face in rapid succession. Aswell lands a few punches, and Oki spins with a back kick to the belly. Aswell connects with two punches and is out of the way before getting countered, and he steps in and bops Oki in the chops with a left. Oki knocks him back thanks to his power punches, and he works a left to the ribs and a right up top. They both land at the same time, and Oki dodges an elbow to send Aswell retreating. Oki chains a knee into a right hand, and Aswell is tough as nails but is standing still when Oki puts hands on him. Aswell goes for two, and Oki’s lead jab and check hook to the damage. Oki knees his foe again, and he trips as he swings for the fences and recovers quickly. Oki takes a low kick on the calf and drills Aswell with a short combo, forcing the Texan to ricochet off the wall. Oki’s right hand further pounds Aswell on the jaw, and he jumps forward with a knee that flies past his foe on the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oki
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Oki
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Oki
Round 3
One final glove touch kicks off the last round, and Oki starts off quickly with a jab and a chin-shaking right hand. Aswell displays near otherworldly durability as Oki is not taking it easy on him, but it is Oki in the driver’s seat. The power is substantially in his favor, and he has Aswell reacting to his strikes while he largely shrugs off the ones coming back his way. Even with Aswell’s likely higher volume, the right and left hooks from Oki are far more impactful. A few such hooks land on the chin, and Oki eats a counter, pats himself on the head to ask Aswell to bring it on and throws back. Oki leads off with his left hook, and three punches of his back Aswell up to the fence. Oki continue to chase after his opponent as Aswell is in retreat mode now, and he keeps his guard high to let Aswell’s swings bounce off him. Oki takes a hard right hand, and when Aswell doubles up his jab, Oki smiles at him and asks for more. Aswell obliges, but not before Oki clips him again hard. The strike totals are sky-high in this fight and the numbers are likely quite close, but Oki has figured out how to put volume together while still hitting Aswell harder than he gets hit back. Oki marks up Aswell’s left eye with his power right hand, and Aswell is looking for answers as his mighty swings seem to have no effect on the Belgian. Oki walks into and through a right hand, and he winds up with three hearty swings that bounce Aswell’s head around. Oki is determined to swing it out to the bell, and he does just that.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oki (29-28 Oki)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Oki (29-28 Oki)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Oki (29-28 Oki)
The Official Result
Bolaji Oki def. Michael Aswell via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Matt picks Bolaji Oki to win by decision. He highlights Oki's power punching and ability to maintain his gas tank over three rounds, while Aswell is a basic pressure fighter moving up a weight class on short notice. He expects Oki to land the more eye-catching shots and win on the scorecards, noting Aswell's durability but lack of power.
Expert Picks (6)
Angelo picks Michael Aswell, citing his relentless pressure and high volume of strikes. He believes Aswell's pressure will overwhelm Lucas, who will be looking for big shots and getting hit multiple times in return. He notes Aswell's insane 9.1 significant strikes landed per minute.
Big Brady picks Lucas Almeida to win a decision, citing Almeida's power advantage and the fight being in Brazil. He notes Aswell lands high volume but lacks power, and that Almeida's big leg kicks and power shots will sway the judges. He expects a close fight going to the scorecards, with crowd reactions favoring Almeida.
Cody originally took Almeida but switched to Aswell, citing age and weight cut advantages. He notes Aswell's high volume and Almeida's lack of wrestling, but expects a close fight that could be influenced by Brazilian judging. He recommends the split decision prop.
Manpreet picks Aswell, citing Almeida's downward trajectory and Aswell's basic but effective striking and forward pressure. He believes Aswell will walk Almeida down, land his jab and cross, and win a decision. He notes Aswell's durability and full training camp at his natural weight class.
Paul picks Aswell, citing his youth, volume striking, and natural weight class. He notes Almeida's poor takedown defense and weight cut issues, but expects a close fight that could go to split decision. He suggests a split decision prop.
The MMA Guru picks Lucas Almeida over Michael Aswell, believing the odds are incorrect. He notes Aswell couldn't finish Bellagio and has lost recently, while Almeida had a close fight with Danny Silva. He predicts Almeida wins by finish or decision as an underdog.
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