Career Averages - Luan Lacerda
Career Averages - Saimon Oliveira
Luan Lacerda
Saimon Oliveira
Luan Lacerda - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luan Lacerda | 0 | 62 of 168 | 36% | 72 of 182 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 3:06 |
| Hecher Sosa | 0 | 104 of 221 | 47% | 137 of 263 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luan Lacerda | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 22 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Hecher Sosa | 0 | 22 of 50 | 44% | 33 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 2 | Luan Lacerda | 0 | 23 of 64 | 35% | 24 of 67 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Hecher Sosa | 0 | 42 of 90 | 46% | 49 of 100 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Luan Lacerda | 0 | 20 of 61 | 32% | 26 of 68 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Hecher Sosa | 0 | 40 of 81 | 49% | 55 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luan Lacerda | 62 of 168 | 36% | 35 of 118 | 22 of 44 | 5 of 6 | 53 of 150 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Hecher Sosa | 104 of 221 | 47% | 67 of 170 | 25 of 37 | 12 of 14 | 88 of 189 | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luan Lacerda | 19 of 43 | 44% | 9 of 24 | 7 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 36 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Hecher Sosa | 22 of 50 | 44% | 15 of 37 | 2 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 44 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Luan Lacerda | 23 of 64 | 35% | 15 of 48 | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 60 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Hecher Sosa | 42 of 90 | 46% | 25 of 68 | 13 of 17 | 4 of 5 | 34 of 80 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Luan Lacerda | 20 of 61 | 32% | 11 of 46 | 7 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 54 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Hecher Sosa | 40 of 81 | 49% | 27 of 65 | 10 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 34 of 65 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Hecher Sosa confidently, praising his clean striking, range management, and leg kicks. He notes that Luan Lacerda is a dangerous grappler but Sosa's takedown defense should be good enough. He thinks Sosa will be the much better striker and should win, calling the -230 line a potential bargain.
Big Brady picks Hecher Sosa to win by second-round knockout. He praises Sosa's well-rounded game, including solid striking and grappling, and notes his impressive Contender Series performance. He questions Lacerda's cardio and durability, calling him 'submission or bust' and expecting Sosa to dictate the fight on the feet and eventually knock him out.
Cody picks Sosa confidently, citing his regional success, well-rounded game, and durability. He notes Lacerda's poor performance against Simon Olivera and lack of improvement. He expects Sosa to take him down and dominate.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Lacerda. He describes Sosa as awkward and ropey, with poor technical know-how. He believes Lacerda's aggression will be too much for Sosa, who is not used to facing fighters who are willing to engage. Connor calls it a bad bantamweight fight.
James picks Hecher Sosa to win inside the distance, citing his well-rounded game and ability to adapt. He notes Lacerda's submission threat but believes Sosa's strength and defensive wrestling will prevail. He expects Sosa to finish Lacerda, who has been finished in his losses.
The host favors Sosa due to his well-roundedness and ability to shut down Lacerda's submission game. He expects Sosa to outstrike Lacerda and take him down, where he can land damage and avoid submissions. He predicts a decision win for Sosa, noting that Lacerda's only real threat is submissions, which Sosa can neutralize.
Paul picks Sosa, noting his impressive wins and readiness for the UFC. He thinks Lacerda is a step down in competition. He expects Sosa to win.
The Guru picks Hecher Sosa, citing his recent TKO wins and physicality advantage. He believes Sosa is entering his prime and that Lacerda has been unimpressive in the UFC, with losses to Damon Blackshear and Cody Stamann. He predicts a competitive decision, 29-28.
Zane picks Luan Lacerda, noting that Hecher Sosa is a mediocre athlete who throws single strikes with little defense. He believes Lacerda's functional aggression will overwhelm Sosa, who is used to being the bigger fighter. Zane sees Lacerda as more willing to throw shots and take advantage of Sosa's lack of combination work.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luan Lacerda | 0 | 24 of 39 | 61% | 60 of 85 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 6:06 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 0 | 21 of 34 | 61% | 33 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 2 | 1:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luan Lacerda | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 26 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:38 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 14 of 22 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 0:58 | |
| 2 | Luan Lacerda | 0 | 14 of 19 | 73% | 34 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:28 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 0 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 19 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:47 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luan Lacerda | 24 of 39 | 61% | 13 of 26 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 13 | 6 of 8 | 12 of 18 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 21 of 34 | 61% | 14 of 21 | 3 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 8 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luan Lacerda | 10 of 20 | 50% | 3 of 11 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 6 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 6 of 8 | 75% | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Luan Lacerda | 14 of 19 | 73% | 10 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 12 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 15 of 26 | 57% | 13 of 20 | 0 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 14 |
Angelo picks Luan Lacerda based on his raw notes from watching their last fights. He describes Luan as 'incredibly dangerous' and constantly working towards submissions, while his notes for Saimon simply say 'sucks.' He acknowledges the layoff for Luan but believes he is fighting a lesser opponent and should win. He also suggests the odds might be a discount.
Big Brady picks Luan Lacerda by default, as he is not picking Saimon Oliveira to beat anyone in the UFC. He notes Oliveira has no takedown defense, no cardio, and no durability, and that he almost died in a training accident. Lacerda is 0-2 in the UFC but has taken a two-year layoff; Brady expects him to get takedowns at will and potentially find a submission or win a decision. He calls the fight sketchy with two fighters who arguably shouldn't be in the UFC.
Cody picks Lacerda, citing Oliveira's poor durability and technique. He notes Lacerda's body work and wrestling, and expects him to wear Oliveira down. He suggests live betting if Lacerda starts slow.
Lucrative James picks Luan Lacerda to win, noting that Lacerda has shown better performances in the UFC despite being 0-2, and believes he should be 1-1. He highlights Lacerda's superior grappling and submission game, with six submission wins leading up to his UFC debut. He also mentions Lacerda's dangerous leg lock game but warns about his tendency to roll for leg locks, which got him knocked out in his last fight. He expects a finish inside the distance, likely by submission, but passes on betting due to the -245 price tag and layoff concerns.
Manpreet picks Lacerda but is wary of the long layoff and chalky odds. He believes Lacerda's BJJ will be the difference, expecting a submission win. However, he notes that Oliveira's grappling defense is not as dangerous as previous opponents, and the layoff makes Lacerda tough to trust at minus 260.
Paul picks Lacerda, calling Oliveira the worst guy on the roster. He notes Oliveira's 0-3 record and reckless style, while Lacerda has faced better competition. He expects Lacerda to win, possibly by knockout or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Luan Lacerda over Saimon Oliveira, citing toughness and durability advantages. He notes Oliveira seems 'soy' and easy to break, with a losing streak and finishes. Lacerda trains at a better gym (Nova União) and has had time off to develop. He predicts a late-round finish by TKO or submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 66 of 135 | 48% | 85 of 158 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 2:14 |
| Luan Lacerda | 0 | 28 of 64 | 43% | 31 of 67 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 1 | 0:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 30 of 60 | 50% | 44 of 76 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
| Luan Lacerda | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 20 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 2 | Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 36 of 75 | 48% | 41 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:45 |
| Luan Lacerda | 0 | 11 of 30 | 36% | 11 of 30 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 66 of 135 | 48% | 42 of 103 | 11 of 17 | 13 of 15 | 38 of 96 | 8 of 13 | 20 of 26 |
| Luan Lacerda | 28 of 64 | 43% | 16 of 42 | 9 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 61 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Da'Mon Blackshear | 30 of 60 | 50% | 17 of 41 | 4 of 8 | 9 of 11 | 19 of 43 | 8 of 13 | 3 of 4 |
| Luan Lacerda | 17 of 34 | 50% | 11 of 24 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 31 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Da'Mon Blackshear | 36 of 75 | 48% | 25 of 62 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 22 |
| Luan Lacerda | 11 of 30 | 36% | 5 of 18 | 4 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Blackshear, impressed by his toughness and performance in his loss to Fareed. He thinks Blackshear is better than his winless UFC record and can defend Lacerda's takedowns, noting Lacerda is not the wrestler Fareed was. Angelo acknowledges Lacerda is dangerous everywhere but believes Blackshear's speed and accuracy will be key. He placed a $20 bet on Blackshear at +111.
Cody picks Lacerda, agreeing with Paul. He notes Lacerda looked like a problem in his debut against Stamann, showing strong takedown defense and striking. Cody highlights Blackshear's poor takedown defense and inability to get back to his feet. He thinks Lacerda's physicality and grappling will be too much, and that -150 is fair.
Connor fully agrees with Zane, praising Lacerda's assertiveness and well-rounded skills. He compares Lacerda favorably to a more aggressive version of Hacran Dias, noting that Lacerda knows how to lead and break opponents down methodically. Connor believes Blackshear's lack of striking comfort and tendency to give up the initiative will be exploited by Lacerda's pressure and takedowns.
Daniel picks Lacerda, praising his elite Jiu-Jitsu and ability to sweep and take backs. He notes that Blackshear is explosive and athletic but makes defensive mistakes and puts himself in deep submissions. He believes Lacerda's consistency and grappling will be the difference, and he wouldn't be surprised by a submission win.
Jacob picks Lacerda, believing he is the better striker with more power and Muay Thai kicks. He thinks Lacerda is next level on the ground and Blackshear will be outclassed everywhere. Jacob notes Lacerda struggled against Cody's elusive style but Blackshear will be more in front of him. He does not see a finish but expects Lacerda to out-grapple and out-strike Blackshear to win a decision.
Lacerda is a BJJ black belt who gets most of his work done on the mat with submissions. Blackshear has cardio issues and his efficiency drops after the first two rounds. Lacerda will land takedowns, establish dominant control, and find a submission in the latter half of the fight.
Paul picks Lacerda confidently, calling him the most value on the card at -150. He notes Lacerda's strong grappling and physicality, and that Blackshear cannot fight off his back. Paul recalls Lacerda's impressive UFC debut against Cody Stamann, where he nearly won. He thinks Lacerda's second fight will show an even better version, and that he has the tools to submit or dominate Blackshear.
The MMA Guru leans towards Luan Lacerda, acknowledging it's a tough matchup to predict. He notes Lacerda had a competitive fight with Cody Stamann, a tough veteran, and that Lacerda is more talented and had momentum coming into the UFC. He also mentions that Blackshear had a close fight with Farid Basharat and made big mistakes. The Guru thinks Lacerda will mix in grappling and get takedowns, but warns that Blackshear could win by finish as an underdog.
Zane picks Lacerda based on his assertive, front-foot style and well-rounded game. He notes that Blackshear is a good scrambler but tends to let opponents be first, which is dangerous against Lacerda's pressure. Lacerda's solid Muay Thai, power, and wrestling (he even took down Kody Stamann) should allow him to control the fight. Zane believes Blackshear's passive approach will lead to him being outworked and outgrappled.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 80 of 181 | 44% | 85 of 187 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Luan Lacerda | 0 | 103 of 189 | 54% | 108 of 195 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Stamann | 0 | 29 of 59 | 49% | 29 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Luan Lacerda | 0 | 31 of 66 | 46% | 31 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Cody Stamann | 0 | 33 of 78 | 42% | 33 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Luan Lacerda | 0 | 52 of 87 | 59% | 52 of 87 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Cody Stamann | 0 | 18 of 44 | 40% | 23 of 50 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Luan Lacerda | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 25 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Stamann | 80 of 181 | 44% | 31 of 113 | 44 of 61 | 5 of 7 | 80 of 181 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Luan Lacerda | 103 of 189 | 54% | 62 of 139 | 29 of 38 | 12 of 12 | 101 of 186 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Stamann | 29 of 59 | 49% | 9 of 33 | 17 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 29 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Luan Lacerda | 31 of 66 | 46% | 17 of 49 | 8 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 31 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cody Stamann | 33 of 78 | 42% | 17 of 53 | 15 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 33 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Luan Lacerda | 52 of 87 | 59% | 31 of 63 | 17 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 50 of 85 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Cody Stamann | 18 of 44 | 40% | 5 of 27 | 12 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Luan Lacerda | 20 of 36 | 55% | 14 of 27 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Cody Stamann as the rightful favorite due to fighting much better competition. He notes Lacerda has a legit BJJ black belt but often pulls guard and rolls for submissions, which doesn't work as well in the UFC. He thinks Lacerda won't be able to get takedowns and will have to rely on a Hail Mary submission. Stamann has been submitted twice but against elite grapplers like Sterling and Said. He predicts a decision win for Stamann.
Cody picks Cody Stamann confidently, noting his wrestling, cardio, and versatility. He says Stamann is a generalist who can do everything well, while Lacerda is a one-dimensional BJJ specialist. He thinks Stamann will neutralize Lacerda's grappling and win on the feet. He mentions Stamann's experience against top competition and his ability to avoid submissions.
Connor agrees, noting Lacerda is not proactive and Stamann is a tough gatekeeper. Lacerda's style is janky and he may not be able to exploit Stamann's flaws.
Paul picks Cody Stamann, noting his wrestling and striking advantages. He says Stamann is a safe bet among the big favorites on the card. He mentions Lacerda's BJJ is dangerous but thinks Stamann will avoid submissions and win a decision. He says Stamann's experience and versatility will be too much.
The Guru picks Stamann despite acknowledging the risk of decline. He notes Stamann's losses are to top bantamweights like Sterling, Develashvili, and Rivera, and he beat Eddie Wineland convincingly. At 33, Stamann is still hungry and training at Extreme Couture. The Guru believes Lacerda is not on the level of Sayed or Song to submit Stamann, and that Stamann's wrestling and pressure will carry him to a 29-28 decision after surviving an early bad situation.
Zane picks Stamann because Lacerda is too passive and slow-paced. Stamann is a good wrestler who can enforce his game. Lacerda's submissions come from wrestling, but he won't outwrestle Stamann. Stamann is tough and durable.
Saimon Oliveira - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luan Lacerda | 0 | 24 of 39 | 61% | 60 of 85 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 6:06 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 0 | 21 of 34 | 61% | 33 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 2 | 1:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luan Lacerda | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 26 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:38 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 14 of 22 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 0:58 | |
| 2 | Luan Lacerda | 0 | 14 of 19 | 73% | 34 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:28 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 0 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 19 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:47 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luan Lacerda | 24 of 39 | 61% | 13 of 26 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 13 | 6 of 8 | 12 of 18 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 21 of 34 | 61% | 14 of 21 | 3 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 8 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luan Lacerda | 10 of 20 | 50% | 3 of 11 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 6 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 6 of 8 | 75% | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Luan Lacerda | 14 of 19 | 73% | 10 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 12 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 15 of 26 | 57% | 13 of 20 | 0 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 14 |
Angelo picks Luan Lacerda based on his raw notes from watching their last fights. He describes Luan as 'incredibly dangerous' and constantly working towards submissions, while his notes for Saimon simply say 'sucks.' He acknowledges the layoff for Luan but believes he is fighting a lesser opponent and should win. He also suggests the odds might be a discount.
Big Brady picks Luan Lacerda by default, as he is not picking Saimon Oliveira to beat anyone in the UFC. He notes Oliveira has no takedown defense, no cardio, and no durability, and that he almost died in a training accident. Lacerda is 0-2 in the UFC but has taken a two-year layoff; Brady expects him to get takedowns at will and potentially find a submission or win a decision. He calls the fight sketchy with two fighters who arguably shouldn't be in the UFC.
Cody picks Lacerda, citing Oliveira's poor durability and technique. He notes Lacerda's body work and wrestling, and expects him to wear Oliveira down. He suggests live betting if Lacerda starts slow.
Lucrative James picks Luan Lacerda to win, noting that Lacerda has shown better performances in the UFC despite being 0-2, and believes he should be 1-1. He highlights Lacerda's superior grappling and submission game, with six submission wins leading up to his UFC debut. He also mentions Lacerda's dangerous leg lock game but warns about his tendency to roll for leg locks, which got him knocked out in his last fight. He expects a finish inside the distance, likely by submission, but passes on betting due to the -245 price tag and layoff concerns.
Manpreet picks Lacerda but is wary of the long layoff and chalky odds. He believes Lacerda's BJJ will be the difference, expecting a submission win. However, he notes that Oliveira's grappling defense is not as dangerous as previous opponents, and the layoff makes Lacerda tough to trust at minus 260.
Paul picks Lacerda, calling Oliveira the worst guy on the roster. He notes Oliveira's 0-3 record and reckless style, while Lacerda has faced better competition. He expects Lacerda to win, possibly by knockout or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Luan Lacerda over Saimon Oliveira, citing toughness and durability advantages. He notes Oliveira seems 'soy' and easy to break, with a losing streak and finishes. Lacerda trains at a better gym (Nova União) and has had time off to develop. He predicts a late-round finish by TKO or submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Martínez | 1 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 28 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 0 | 7 of 24 | 29% | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Martínez | 1 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 28 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 0 | 7 of 24 | 29% | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Martínez | 27 of 41 | 65% | 21 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 11 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 7 of 24 | 29% | 3 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Martínez | 27 of 41 | 65% | 21 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 11 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 7 of 24 | 29% | 3 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
James picks David Martínez to win, praising his footwork, striking variety, and fight IQ. He notes Martínez's ability to pace himself and turn it up late in rounds, and believes Oliveira's chaotic style and poor cardio will be exposed at elevation. James highlights Oliveira's two-year layoff and previous gas-out against Daniel Marcos. He predicts Martínez will win inside the distance, likely in rounds two or three, due to superior footwork and Oliveira's tendency to fade.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Marcos | 0 | 23 of 70 | 32% | 25 of 73 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:15 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 1 | 53 of 78 | 67% | 59 of 84 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Marcos | 0 | 13 of 40 | 32% | 15 of 43 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 0 | 27 of 40 | 67% | 31 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 | |
| 2 | Daniel Marcos | 0 | 10 of 30 | 33% | 10 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 1 | 26 of 38 | 68% | 28 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Marcos | 23 of 70 | 32% | 7 of 47 | 3 of 7 | 13 of 16 | 20 of 63 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 53 of 78 | 67% | 31 of 52 | 20 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 36 of 58 | 16 of 19 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Marcos | 13 of 40 | 32% | 4 of 27 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 8 | 10 of 35 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 27 of 40 | 67% | 16 of 28 | 10 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 30 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Daniel Marcos | 10 of 30 | 33% | 3 of 20 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 8 | 10 of 28 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 26 of 38 | 68% | 15 of 24 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 28 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 |
Big Brady is not extremely impressed with either fighter but sees more paths to victory for Daniel Marcos. He notes Marcos made significant improvements from his earlier fights to the Contender Series, particularly in striking and takedown defense. He believes Marcos can get takedowns against Oliveira, who has poor takedown defense, though Oliveira is dangerous off his back. He calls it a sketchy fight he's staying away from betting.
Cody picks Daniel Marcos as a slight underdog, noting his striking and power. He says Marcos showed good volume and power on Contender Series, and that Oliveira is reckless and has poor wrestling. He thinks Marcos can win a striking battle. He mentions Marcos' cardio issues but thinks he can push through. He says this is a 50/50 fight and he'll take the plus money.
Connor agrees, noting Oliveira has more experience and is more aggressive. Marcos may struggle with Oliveira's pressure and guillotine threat.
Paul picks Daniel Marcos, agreeing with Cody. He notes Oliveira's recklessness and poor wrestling. He says Marcos has good striking and power. He mentions Marcos' cardio issues but thinks he can win. He says he's not confident but will pick Marcos.
The Guru sees this as a 50/50 matchup but leans towards Marcos as the underdog. He notes that Oliveira barely scraped by on the contender series and was ragdolled by Tony Gravely, who got 11 takedowns on him. Marcos showed good takedown defense against Brandon Lewis, stuffing 11 of 13 takedowns, and has been more active recently, while Oliveira hasn't fought in a year. The Guru gives a slight grappling advantage to Marcos due to his hustle and stubbornness in positions.
Zane picks Oliveira because he is cleaner and more aggressive. Marcos is gritty but lacks clean technique. Oliveira's experience and aggression should give him the edge. He notes Oliveira's guillotine could be a threat.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gravely | 0 | 46 of 99 | 46% | 66 of 132 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 0 | 0 | 11:28 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 0 | 35 of 71 | 49% | 50 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 4 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tony Gravely | 0 | 5 of 21 | 23% | 14 of 36 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 4:31 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Tony Gravely | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 25 of 51 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 0 | 18 of 29 | 62% | 21 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 3 | Tony Gravely | 0 | 21 of 34 | 61% | 27 of 45 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:24 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 0 | 13 of 36 | 36% | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gravely | 46 of 99 | 46% | 36 of 87 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 24 of 50 | 4 of 7 | 18 of 42 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 35 of 71 | 49% | 21 of 53 | 9 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 27 of 62 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tony Gravely | 5 of 21 | 23% | 4 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tony Gravely | 20 of 44 | 45% | 15 of 38 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 23 | 2 of 4 | 9 of 17 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 18 of 29 | 62% | 11 of 22 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 20 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tony Gravely | 21 of 34 | 61% | 17 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 9 |
| Saimon Oliveira | 13 of 36 | 36% | 8 of 27 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Tony Gravely despite the submission threat from Oliveira. He believes Gravely's wrestling and top pressure will be effective, similar to how Arjan Bhullar beat Oliveira. However, he warns that five of Gravely's seven losses are by submission, and Oliveira has 11 submission wins, so he will be looking at prop bets.
Big Brady picks Tony Gravely to win by first or second round knockout, citing his power advantage and superior competition. He notes Oliveira's record is padded and he is hittable. Gravely has multiple paths: knockout on the feet or takedown and ground-and-pound. The only concern is Gravely has been submitted before, but those were against elite grapplers. He expects Gravely to finish Oliveira early.
Cody picks Tony Gravely, citing his collegiate wrestling, developing boxing, and power. He notes that Oliveira has never been finished and has poor defensive tendencies, leaving himself open to big shots. Cody believes Gravely's wrestling and striking will be too much, but warns that Gravely has cardio issues and can be reckless. He likes Gravely by knockout but notes the decision is possible.
Daniel Levi picks Saimon Oliveira as an underdog. He notes that Tony Gravely has a history of mental lapses, getting submitted or knocked out after dominating early rounds. Oliveira is experienced (18-3), has fought tough competition like Ari Farias, and has knockout power and opportunistic submissions. Levi believes Gravely will muscle Oliveira around early but eventually leave his neck or chin out, allowing Oliveira to capitalize and get his first UFC win. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation.
The host leans Oliveira because he believes Gravely's cardio is suspect and that Oliveira has advantages on the feet and in the clinch. He notes that Gravely tends to fade in later rounds and that Oliveira has good guillotine chokes if Gravely shoots desperately. He expects Oliveira to win by submission in the third round, but he is not confident enough to bet it heavily; he may take a small play on under 2.5 rounds.
Paul picks Tony Gravely, agreeing that Gravely's wrestling and power are key. He notes that Oliveira has never been finished but puts himself in positions to get sparked. Paul warns that Gravely's cardio is a concern and that he gassed against Nate Maness. He advises not going too heavy on Gravely due to these risks.
The MMA Guru picks Tony Gravely, though hesitant due to Gravely's recent KO loss. He notes Gravely's tough competition and training at 80T, and believes his grappling and stand-up will be enough. He was unimpressed by Oliveira's contender series performance and predicts a close 29-28 decision.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Luan Lacerda based on his raw notes from watching their last fights. He describes Luan as 'incredibly dangerous' and constantly working towards submissions, while his notes for Saimon simply say 'sucks.' He acknowledges the layoff for Luan but believes he is fighting a lesser opponent and should win. He also suggests the odds might be a discount.
Big Brady picks Luan Lacerda by default, as he is not picking Saimon Oliveira to beat anyone in the UFC. He notes Oliveira has no takedown defense, no cardio, and no durability, and that he almost died in a training accident. Lacerda is 0-2 in the UFC but has taken a two-year layoff; Brady expects him to get takedowns at will and potentially find a submission or win a decision. He calls the fight sketchy with two fighters who arguably shouldn't be in the UFC.
Cody picks Lacerda, citing Oliveira's poor durability and technique. He notes Lacerda's body work and wrestling, and expects him to wear Oliveira down. He suggests live betting if Lacerda starts slow.
Lucrative James picks Luan Lacerda to win, noting that Lacerda has shown better performances in the UFC despite being 0-2, and believes he should be 1-1. He highlights Lacerda's superior grappling and submission game, with six submission wins leading up to his UFC debut. He also mentions Lacerda's dangerous leg lock game but warns about his tendency to roll for leg locks, which got him knocked out in his last fight. He expects a finish inside the distance, likely by submission, but passes on betting due to the -245 price tag and layoff concerns.
Manpreet picks Lacerda but is wary of the long layoff and chalky odds. He believes Lacerda's BJJ will be the difference, expecting a submission win. However, he notes that Oliveira's grappling defense is not as dangerous as previous opponents, and the layoff makes Lacerda tough to trust at minus 260.
Paul picks Lacerda, calling Oliveira the worst guy on the roster. He notes Oliveira's 0-3 record and reckless style, while Lacerda has faced better competition. He expects Lacerda to win, possibly by knockout or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Luan Lacerda over Saimon Oliveira, citing toughness and durability advantages. He notes Oliveira seems 'soy' and easy to break, with a losing streak and finishes. Lacerda trains at a better gym (Nova União) and has had time off to develop. He predicts a late-round finish by TKO or submission.
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