UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025 · Catchweight (144 lb) · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Age 33
Height 5' 7"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 35
Height 5' 4"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Luan Lacerda
4.06 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
6.15 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
2.82 TD Avg
39.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Saimon Oliveira
2.62 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
3.87 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
1.18 TD Avg
28.0% TD Acc.
36.0% TD Def.
1.2 Sub. Avg
Luan Lacerda
Moneyline
BetWay -350
KO/TKO
BetRivers +575
Submission
FanDuel +115
Decision
BetRivers +400
Saimon Oliveira
Moneyline
FanDuel +310
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1100
Submission
BetRivers +900
Decision
FanDuel +900
Luan Lacerda - Fight History
LOSS vs Hecher Sosa
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luan Lacerda 0 62 of 168 36% 72 of 182 4 of 11 36% 0 0 3:06
Hecher Sosa 0 104 of 221 47% 137 of 263 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luan Lacerda 0 19 of 43 44% 22 of 47 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:44
Hecher Sosa 0 22 of 50 44% 33 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
2 Luan Lacerda 0 23 of 64 35% 24 of 67 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:34
Hecher Sosa 0 42 of 90 46% 49 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
3 Luan Lacerda 0 20 of 61 32% 26 of 68 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:48
Hecher Sosa 0 40 of 81 49% 55 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luan Lacerda 62 of 168 36% 35 of 118 22 of 44 5 of 6 53 of 150 9 of 18 0 of 0
Hecher Sosa 104 of 221 47% 67 of 170 25 of 37 12 of 14 88 of 189 16 of 32 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luan Lacerda 19 of 43 44% 9 of 24 7 of 15 3 of 4 13 of 36 6 of 7 0 of 0
Hecher Sosa 22 of 50 44% 15 of 37 2 of 8 5 of 5 20 of 44 2 of 6 0 of 0
2 Luan Lacerda 23 of 64 35% 15 of 48 8 of 16 0 of 0 22 of 60 1 of 4 0 of 0
Hecher Sosa 42 of 90 46% 25 of 68 13 of 17 4 of 5 34 of 80 8 of 10 0 of 0
3 Luan Lacerda 20 of 61 32% 11 of 46 7 of 13 2 of 2 18 of 54 2 of 7 0 of 0
Hecher Sosa 40 of 81 49% 27 of 65 10 of 12 3 of 4 34 of 65 6 of 16 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Hecher Sosa

Angelo picks Hecher Sosa confidently, praising his clean striking, range management, and leg kicks. He notes that Luan Lacerda is a dangerous grappler but Sosa's takedown defense should be good enough. He thinks Sosa will be the much better striker and should win, calling the -230 line a potential bargain.

"So, Hetch is going to be the pick. ... minus 230 might be like, 'Damn, dude, that was the bargain of the card.'"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Hecher Sosa

Big Brady picks Hecher Sosa to win by second-round knockout. He praises Sosa's well-rounded game, including solid striking and grappling, and notes his impressive Contender Series performance. He questions Lacerda's cardio and durability, calling him 'submission or bust' and expecting Sosa to dictate the fight on the feet and eventually knock him out.

"Give me Hector Souza to win this fight. I'll take him going to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Hecher Sosa

Cody picks Sosa confidently, citing his regional success, well-rounded game, and durability. He notes Lacerda's poor performance against Simon Olivera and lack of improvement. He expects Sosa to take him down and dominate.

"I like Hector Sosa. All I do."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Lacerda. He describes Sosa as awkward and ropey, with poor technical know-how. He believes Lacerda's aggression will be too much for Sosa, who is not used to facing fighters who are willing to engage. Connor calls it a bad bantamweight fight.

Sosa opened at -200, currently -240; Lacerda opened at +170, currently +205
"Yeah, that sounds about right to me. Yeah. I got to take Lacerda, but this is, yeah, not interesting for Bantam weight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Hecher Sosa

James picks Hecher Sosa to win inside the distance, citing his well-rounded game and ability to adapt. He notes Lacerda's submission threat but believes Sosa's strength and defensive wrestling will prevail. He expects Sosa to finish Lacerda, who has been finished in his losses.

"I got Hetcha Sosa for the win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Hecher Sosa

The host favors Sosa due to his well-roundedness and ability to shut down Lacerda's submission game. He expects Sosa to outstrike Lacerda and take him down, where he can land damage and avoid submissions. He predicts a decision win for Sosa, noting that Lacerda's only real threat is submissions, which Sosa can neutralize.

"I like Sosa a fair deal here. I feel like he dominates. I feel like he shuts down Lerta's submission game."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Hecher Sosa

Paul picks Sosa, noting his impressive wins and readiness for the UFC. He thinks Lacerda is a step down in competition. He expects Sosa to win.

"Everything's pointing towards this guy being ready to compete in the UFC."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Hecher Sosa

The Guru picks Hecher Sosa, citing his recent TKO wins and physicality advantage. He believes Sosa is entering his prime and that Lacerda has been unimpressive in the UFC, with losses to Damon Blackshear and Cody Stamann. He predicts a competitive decision, 29-28.

"I am going to go with Hecher Sosa... by a competitive decision, 29-28."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Zane picks Luan Lacerda, noting that Hecher Sosa is a mediocre athlete who throws single strikes with little defense. He believes Lacerda's functional aggression will overwhelm Sosa, who is used to being the bigger fighter. Zane sees Lacerda as more willing to throw shots and take advantage of Sosa's lack of combination work.

Sosa opened at -200, currently -240; Lacerda opened at +170, currently +205
"I got to take Lacerda, but this is, yeah, not interesting for Bantam weight."
Submission R2 3:55 · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luan Lacerda 0 24 of 39 61% 60 of 85 3 of 4 75% 1 0 6:06
Saimon Oliveira 0 21 of 34 61% 33 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 2 1:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luan Lacerda 0 10 of 20 50% 26 of 42 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:38
Saimon Oliveira 0 6 of 8 75% 14 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 1 0:58
2 Luan Lacerda 0 14 of 19 73% 34 of 43 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:28
Saimon Oliveira 0 15 of 26 57% 19 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luan Lacerda 24 of 39 61% 13 of 26 10 of 12 1 of 1 6 of 13 6 of 8 12 of 18
Saimon Oliveira 21 of 34 61% 14 of 21 3 of 7 4 of 6 8 of 17 2 of 3 11 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luan Lacerda 10 of 20 50% 3 of 11 7 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 6 6 of 8 3 of 6
Saimon Oliveira 6 of 8 75% 1 of 1 3 of 4 2 of 3 4 of 5 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Luan Lacerda 14 of 19 73% 10 of 15 3 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 7 0 of 0 9 of 12
Saimon Oliveira 15 of 26 57% 13 of 20 0 of 3 2 of 3 4 of 12 0 of 0 11 of 14
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Angelo picks Luan Lacerda based on his raw notes from watching their last fights. He describes Luan as 'incredibly dangerous' and constantly working towards submissions, while his notes for Saimon simply say 'sucks.' He acknowledges the layoff for Luan but believes he is fighting a lesser opponent and should win. He also suggests the odds might be a discount.

odds might be a discount
"Luan Lacerda is the pick. I hate the layoff, but he's fighting a suck."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Big Brady picks Luan Lacerda by default, as he is not picking Saimon Oliveira to beat anyone in the UFC. He notes Oliveira has no takedown defense, no cardio, and no durability, and that he almost died in a training accident. Lacerda is 0-2 in the UFC but has taken a two-year layoff; Brady expects him to get takedowns at will and potentially find a submission or win a decision. He calls the fight sketchy with two fighters who arguably shouldn't be in the UFC.

"I got to go Lera here by default. I mean, you know, I'm not picking Simon Oliver to beat literally anybody in the UFC."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Cody picks Lacerda, citing Oliveira's poor durability and technique. He notes Lacerda's body work and wrestling, and expects him to wear Oliveira down. He suggests live betting if Lacerda starts slow.

"I'll take low on Lerta."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Lucrative James picks Luan Lacerda to win, noting that Lacerda has shown better performances in the UFC despite being 0-2, and believes he should be 1-1. He highlights Lacerda's superior grappling and submission game, with six submission wins leading up to his UFC debut. He also mentions Lacerda's dangerous leg lock game but warns about his tendency to roll for leg locks, which got him knocked out in his last fight. He expects a finish inside the distance, likely by submission, but passes on betting due to the -245 price tag and layoff concerns.

inside the distance (no value at -180), under 1.5 rounds (+120)
"I kind of like Luan Lerta to win this one. He's minus 245 favorite. So, I can't really do business with him at that price tag."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Manpreet picks Lacerda but is wary of the long layoff and chalky odds. He believes Lacerda's BJJ will be the difference, expecting a submission win. However, he notes that Oliveira's grappling defense is not as dangerous as previous opponents, and the layoff makes Lacerda tough to trust at minus 260.

Lacerda by submission
"I'm going to go Lacerda. I think he probably wraps up a submission here and forces the tap from Oliveira, but very tough to trust him at minus 260 considering the long layoff."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Paul picks Lacerda, calling Oliveira the worst guy on the roster. He notes Oliveira's 0-3 record and reckless style, while Lacerda has faced better competition. He expects Lacerda to win, possibly by knockout or decision.

"Luan Lasser is a pick for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

The MMA Guru picks Luan Lacerda over Saimon Oliveira, citing toughness and durability advantages. He notes Oliveira seems 'soy' and easy to break, with a losing streak and finishes. Lacerda trains at a better gym (Nova União) and has had time off to develop. He predicts a late-round finish by TKO or submission.

"I'm going to go with Lan Lerta getting this one done. I think he's likely to get a finish here by TKO or submission in the later rounds."
TKO (punches) R2 3:54 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 66 of 135 48% 85 of 158 1 of 2 50% 0 1 2:14
Luan Lacerda 0 28 of 64 43% 31 of 67 1 of 4 25% 1 1 0:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Da'Mon Blackshear 0 30 of 60 50% 44 of 76 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:29
Luan Lacerda 0 17 of 34 50% 20 of 37 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:20
2 Da'Mon Blackshear 0 36 of 75 48% 41 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:45
Luan Lacerda 0 11 of 30 36% 11 of 30 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Da'Mon Blackshear 66 of 135 48% 42 of 103 11 of 17 13 of 15 38 of 96 8 of 13 20 of 26
Luan Lacerda 28 of 64 43% 16 of 42 9 of 19 3 of 3 25 of 61 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Da'Mon Blackshear 30 of 60 50% 17 of 41 4 of 8 9 of 11 19 of 43 8 of 13 3 of 4
Luan Lacerda 17 of 34 50% 11 of 24 5 of 9 1 of 1 14 of 31 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Da'Mon Blackshear 36 of 75 48% 25 of 62 7 of 9 4 of 4 19 of 53 0 of 0 17 of 22
Luan Lacerda 11 of 30 36% 5 of 18 4 of 10 2 of 2 11 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Angelo picks Blackshear, impressed by his toughness and performance in his loss to Fareed. He thinks Blackshear is better than his winless UFC record and can defend Lacerda's takedowns, noting Lacerda is not the wrestler Fareed was. Angelo acknowledges Lacerda is dangerous everywhere but believes Blackshear's speed and accuracy will be key. He placed a $20 bet on Blackshear at +111.

Bet $20 on Blackshear moneyline at +111.
"I think Damon's gonna win this fight I think he's better than his winless UFC record"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Cody picks Lacerda, agreeing with Paul. He notes Lacerda looked like a problem in his debut against Stamann, showing strong takedown defense and striking. Cody highlights Blackshear's poor takedown defense and inability to get back to his feet. He thinks Lacerda's physicality and grappling will be too much, and that -150 is fair.

"minus 150 seems more than fair for Luan lucerta in this spot"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
Luan Lacerda

Connor fully agrees with Zane, praising Lacerda's assertiveness and well-rounded skills. He compares Lacerda favorably to a more aggressive version of Hacran Dias, noting that Lacerda knows how to lead and break opponents down methodically. Connor believes Blackshear's lack of striking comfort and tendency to give up the initiative will be exploited by Lacerda's pressure and takedowns.

"I just I really like the look of lasserta"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Daniel picks Lacerda, praising his elite Jiu-Jitsu and ability to sweep and take backs. He notes that Blackshear is explosive and athletic but makes defensive mistakes and puts himself in deep submissions. He believes Lacerda's consistency and grappling will be the difference, and he wouldn't be surprised by a submission win.

"pure pic lacera and I cannot wait"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Jacob picks Lacerda, believing he is the better striker with more power and Muay Thai kicks. He thinks Lacerda is next level on the ground and Blackshear will be outclassed everywhere. Jacob notes Lacerda struggled against Cody's elusive style but Blackshear will be more in front of him. He does not see a finish but expects Lacerda to out-grapple and out-strike Blackshear to win a decision.

"I absolutely have viserada in this fight I believe in the Striking he's a better Striker he's a more powerful Striker"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Lacerda is a BJJ black belt who gets most of his work done on the mat with submissions. Blackshear has cardio issues and his efficiency drops after the first two rounds. Lacerda will land takedowns, establish dominant control, and find a submission in the latter half of the fight.

submission round 2
"give me Luan lacerda via submission let's call it round two"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Paul picks Lacerda confidently, calling him the most value on the card at -150. He notes Lacerda's strong grappling and physicality, and that Blackshear cannot fight off his back. Paul recalls Lacerda's impressive UFC debut against Cody Stamann, where he nearly won. He thinks Lacerda's second fight will show an even better version, and that he has the tools to submit or dominate Blackshear.

"I feel like Lucerne is probably the most value on the card at -150 to be honest with you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

The MMA Guru leans towards Luan Lacerda, acknowledging it's a tough matchup to predict. He notes Lacerda had a competitive fight with Cody Stamann, a tough veteran, and that Lacerda is more talented and had momentum coming into the UFC. He also mentions that Blackshear had a close fight with Farid Basharat and made big mistakes. The Guru thinks Lacerda will mix in grappling and get takedowns, but warns that Blackshear could win by finish as an underdog.

"I am going to lean towards lacerda because he was doing... he did okay against Cody stamen"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
Luan Lacerda

Zane picks Lacerda based on his assertive, front-foot style and well-rounded game. He notes that Blackshear is a good scrambler but tends to let opponents be first, which is dangerous against Lacerda's pressure. Lacerda's solid Muay Thai, power, and wrestling (he even took down Kody Stamann) should allow him to control the fight. Zane believes Blackshear's passive approach will lead to him being outworked and outgrappled.

"luon lasserta is not a fighter you want to let be first"
LOSS vs Cody Stamann
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cody Stamann 0 80 of 181 44% 85 of 187 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:34
Luan Lacerda 0 103 of 189 54% 108 of 195 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cody Stamann 0 29 of 59 49% 29 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Luan Lacerda 0 31 of 66 46% 31 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Cody Stamann 0 33 of 78 42% 33 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luan Lacerda 0 52 of 87 59% 52 of 87 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Cody Stamann 0 18 of 44 40% 23 of 50 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:34
Luan Lacerda 0 20 of 36 55% 25 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cody Stamann 80 of 181 44% 31 of 113 44 of 61 5 of 7 80 of 181 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luan Lacerda 103 of 189 54% 62 of 139 29 of 38 12 of 12 101 of 186 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cody Stamann 29 of 59 49% 9 of 33 17 of 22 3 of 4 29 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luan Lacerda 31 of 66 46% 17 of 49 8 of 11 6 of 6 31 of 65 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Cody Stamann 33 of 78 42% 17 of 53 15 of 23 1 of 2 33 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luan Lacerda 52 of 87 59% 31 of 63 17 of 20 4 of 4 50 of 85 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Cody Stamann 18 of 44 40% 5 of 27 12 of 16 1 of 1 18 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luan Lacerda 20 of 36 55% 14 of 27 4 of 7 2 of 2 20 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Big Brady picks Cody Stamann as the rightful favorite due to fighting much better competition. He notes Lacerda has a legit BJJ black belt but often pulls guard and rolls for submissions, which doesn't work as well in the UFC. He thinks Lacerda won't be able to get takedowns and will have to rely on a Hail Mary submission. Stamann has been submitted twice but against elite grapplers like Sterling and Said. He predicts a decision win for Stamann.

"I gotta go stand in here I think he's the rightful favorite fighting the better competition being the minute winner but lacerda is a dangerous guy for what it's worth but give me a statement for the I'll say decision …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Cody picks Cody Stamann confidently, noting his wrestling, cardio, and versatility. He says Stamann is a generalist who can do everything well, while Lacerda is a one-dimensional BJJ specialist. He thinks Stamann will neutralize Lacerda's grappling and win on the feet. He mentions Stamann's experience against top competition and his ability to avoid submissions.

mentions Lacerda's submission threat; says Stamann's wrestling is key
"I like Cody's stadium and I actually like him a decent amount uh he's extremely professional good shape shows up got skills everywhere"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Connor agrees, noting Lacerda is not proactive and Stamann is a tough gatekeeper. Lacerda's style is janky and he may not be able to exploit Stamann's flaws.

"Cody Stamann is a tough dude to take apart."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Paul picks Cody Stamann, noting his wrestling and striking advantages. He says Stamann is a safe bet among the big favorites on the card. He mentions Lacerda's BJJ is dangerous but thinks Stamann will avoid submissions and win a decision. He says Stamann's experience and versatility will be too much.

mentions Lacerda's submission threat; says Stamann is one of the safer guys
"stamen seems like one of the safer guys going I would say"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

The Guru picks Stamann despite acknowledging the risk of decline. He notes Stamann's losses are to top bantamweights like Sterling, Develashvili, and Rivera, and he beat Eddie Wineland convincingly. At 33, Stamann is still hungry and training at Extreme Couture. The Guru believes Lacerda is not on the level of Sayed or Song to submit Stamann, and that Stamann's wrestling and pressure will carry him to a 29-28 decision after surviving an early bad situation.

"I'm going with Cody stamen this is a dangerous one to pick because you know we never really know when a guy like Cody stamen's really going to start showing that decline"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Zane picks Stamann because Lacerda is too passive and slow-paced. Stamann is a good wrestler who can enforce his game. Lacerda's submissions come from wrestling, but he won't outwrestle Stamann. Stamann is tough and durable.

"I'm going to take Cody Stamann."
Saimon Oliveira - Fight History
LOSS vs Luan Lacerda
Submission R2 3:55 · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luan Lacerda 0 24 of 39 61% 60 of 85 3 of 4 75% 1 0 6:06
Saimon Oliveira 0 21 of 34 61% 33 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 2 1:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luan Lacerda 0 10 of 20 50% 26 of 42 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:38
Saimon Oliveira 0 6 of 8 75% 14 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 1 0:58
2 Luan Lacerda 0 14 of 19 73% 34 of 43 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:28
Saimon Oliveira 0 15 of 26 57% 19 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luan Lacerda 24 of 39 61% 13 of 26 10 of 12 1 of 1 6 of 13 6 of 8 12 of 18
Saimon Oliveira 21 of 34 61% 14 of 21 3 of 7 4 of 6 8 of 17 2 of 3 11 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luan Lacerda 10 of 20 50% 3 of 11 7 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 6 6 of 8 3 of 6
Saimon Oliveira 6 of 8 75% 1 of 1 3 of 4 2 of 3 4 of 5 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Luan Lacerda 14 of 19 73% 10 of 15 3 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 7 0 of 0 9 of 12
Saimon Oliveira 15 of 26 57% 13 of 20 0 of 3 2 of 3 4 of 12 0 of 0 11 of 14
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Angelo picks Luan Lacerda based on his raw notes from watching their last fights. He describes Luan as 'incredibly dangerous' and constantly working towards submissions, while his notes for Saimon simply say 'sucks.' He acknowledges the layoff for Luan but believes he is fighting a lesser opponent and should win. He also suggests the odds might be a discount.

odds might be a discount
"Luan Lacerda is the pick. I hate the layoff, but he's fighting a suck."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Big Brady picks Luan Lacerda by default, as he is not picking Saimon Oliveira to beat anyone in the UFC. He notes Oliveira has no takedown defense, no cardio, and no durability, and that he almost died in a training accident. Lacerda is 0-2 in the UFC but has taken a two-year layoff; Brady expects him to get takedowns at will and potentially find a submission or win a decision. He calls the fight sketchy with two fighters who arguably shouldn't be in the UFC.

"I got to go Lera here by default. I mean, you know, I'm not picking Simon Oliver to beat literally anybody in the UFC."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Cody picks Lacerda, citing Oliveira's poor durability and technique. He notes Lacerda's body work and wrestling, and expects him to wear Oliveira down. He suggests live betting if Lacerda starts slow.

"I'll take low on Lerta."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Lucrative James picks Luan Lacerda to win, noting that Lacerda has shown better performances in the UFC despite being 0-2, and believes he should be 1-1. He highlights Lacerda's superior grappling and submission game, with six submission wins leading up to his UFC debut. He also mentions Lacerda's dangerous leg lock game but warns about his tendency to roll for leg locks, which got him knocked out in his last fight. He expects a finish inside the distance, likely by submission, but passes on betting due to the -245 price tag and layoff concerns.

inside the distance (no value at -180), under 1.5 rounds (+120)
"I kind of like Luan Lerta to win this one. He's minus 245 favorite. So, I can't really do business with him at that price tag."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Manpreet picks Lacerda but is wary of the long layoff and chalky odds. He believes Lacerda's BJJ will be the difference, expecting a submission win. However, he notes that Oliveira's grappling defense is not as dangerous as previous opponents, and the layoff makes Lacerda tough to trust at minus 260.

Lacerda by submission
"I'm going to go Lacerda. I think he probably wraps up a submission here and forces the tap from Oliveira, but very tough to trust him at minus 260 considering the long layoff."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Paul picks Lacerda, calling Oliveira the worst guy on the roster. He notes Oliveira's 0-3 record and reckless style, while Lacerda has faced better competition. He expects Lacerda to win, possibly by knockout or decision.

"Luan Lasser is a pick for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

The MMA Guru picks Luan Lacerda over Saimon Oliveira, citing toughness and durability advantages. He notes Oliveira seems 'soy' and easy to break, with a losing streak and finishes. Lacerda trains at a better gym (Nova União) and has had time off to develop. He predicts a late-round finish by TKO or submission.

"I'm going to go with Lan Lerta getting this one done. I think he's likely to get a finish here by TKO or submission in the later rounds."
LOSS vs David Martínez
KO R1 4:38 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Mar 29, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
David Martínez 1 27 of 41 65% 28 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Saimon Oliveira 0 7 of 24 29% 7 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 David Martínez 1 27 of 41 65% 28 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Saimon Oliveira 0 7 of 24 29% 7 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
David Martínez 27 of 41 65% 21 of 34 1 of 2 5 of 5 14 of 25 5 of 5 8 of 11
Saimon Oliveira 7 of 24 29% 3 of 17 3 of 4 1 of 3 7 of 23 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 David Martínez 27 of 41 65% 21 of 34 1 of 2 5 of 5 14 of 25 5 of 5 8 of 11
Saimon Oliveira 7 of 24 29% 3 of 17 3 of 4 1 of 3 7 of 23 0 of 1 0 of 0
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
David Martínez

James picks David Martínez to win, praising his footwork, striking variety, and fight IQ. He notes Martínez's ability to pace himself and turn it up late in rounds, and believes Oliveira's chaotic style and poor cardio will be exposed at elevation. James highlights Oliveira's two-year layoff and previous gas-out against Daniel Marcos. He predicts Martínez will win inside the distance, likely in rounds two or three, due to superior footwork and Oliveira's tendency to fade.

Prediction: Martínez inside the distance. Mentions Oliveira's submission threat as a possible angle but favors Martínez.
"David Martinez I think if he doesn't get UFC Jitters on his UFC debut I think that he gets a finish in this fight in rounds two or rounds three."
LOSS vs Daniel Marcos
KO (knee to the body and punches) R2 2:18 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Marcos 0 23 of 70 32% 25 of 73 0 of 5 0% 0 0 2:15
Saimon Oliveira 1 53 of 78 67% 59 of 84 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Marcos 0 13 of 40 32% 15 of 43 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:05
Saimon Oliveira 0 27 of 40 67% 31 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
2 Daniel Marcos 0 10 of 30 33% 10 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Saimon Oliveira 1 26 of 38 68% 28 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Marcos 23 of 70 32% 7 of 47 3 of 7 13 of 16 20 of 63 3 of 7 0 of 0
Saimon Oliveira 53 of 78 67% 31 of 52 20 of 23 2 of 3 36 of 58 16 of 19 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Marcos 13 of 40 32% 4 of 27 3 of 5 6 of 8 10 of 35 3 of 5 0 of 0
Saimon Oliveira 27 of 40 67% 16 of 28 10 of 11 1 of 1 17 of 30 10 of 10 0 of 0
2 Daniel Marcos 10 of 30 33% 3 of 20 0 of 2 7 of 8 10 of 28 0 of 2 0 of 0
Saimon Oliveira 26 of 38 68% 15 of 24 10 of 12 1 of 2 19 of 28 6 of 9 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Big Brady is not extremely impressed with either fighter but sees more paths to victory for Daniel Marcos. He notes Marcos made significant improvements from his earlier fights to the Contender Series, particularly in striking and takedown defense. He believes Marcos can get takedowns against Oliveira, who has poor takedown defense, though Oliveira is dangerous off his back. He calls it a sketchy fight he's staying away from betting.

"I think Marcos has more paths to Victory here as a dog so I'm gonna pick him to win this is kind of a sketchy fight a fight I'm going to be staying away from"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Cody picks Daniel Marcos as a slight underdog, noting his striking and power. He says Marcos showed good volume and power on Contender Series, and that Oliveira is reckless and has poor wrestling. He thinks Marcos can win a striking battle. He mentions Marcos' cardio issues but thinks he can push through. He says this is a 50/50 fight and he'll take the plus money.

mentions Marcos' flying knees; says Oliveira is reckless
"I'm gonna go with Daniel Marcos yeah"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Saimon Oliveira

Connor agrees, noting Oliveira has more experience and is more aggressive. Marcos may struggle with Oliveira's pressure and guillotine threat.

"I agree. I have very little to add."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Paul picks Daniel Marcos, agreeing with Cody. He notes Oliveira's recklessness and poor wrestling. He says Marcos has good striking and power. He mentions Marcos' cardio issues but thinks he can win. He says he's not confident but will pick Marcos.

mentions Oliveira's spinning back fists; says Marcos has good leg kicks
"I'm leaning towards Marcos as well he threw like a bunch of like you know flying knees on Contender Series"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

The Guru sees this as a 50/50 matchup but leans towards Marcos as the underdog. He notes that Oliveira barely scraped by on the contender series and was ragdolled by Tony Gravely, who got 11 takedowns on him. Marcos showed good takedown defense against Brandon Lewis, stuffing 11 of 13 takedowns, and has been more active recently, while Oliveira hasn't fought in a year. The Guru gives a slight grappling advantage to Marcos due to his hustle and stubbornness in positions.

"I'm gonna side with Daniel Marcos as the underdog here because this is kind of like a 50 50 matchup and they have made Simon Oliveira quite a decent favorite so I'm leaning towards Daniel Marcos"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Saimon Oliveira

Zane picks Oliveira because he is cleaner and more aggressive. Marcos is gritty but lacks clean technique. Oliveira's experience and aggression should give him the edge. He notes Oliveira's guillotine could be a threat.

"I think this will just be a technical edge and an aggression edge."
LOSS vs Tony Gravely
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · Jan 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tony Gravely 0 46 of 99 46% 66 of 132 11 of 15 73% 0 0 11:28
Saimon Oliveira 0 35 of 71 49% 50 of 87 0 of 0 --- 4 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tony Gravely 0 5 of 21 23% 14 of 36 2 of 5 40% 0 0 4:31
Saimon Oliveira 0 4 of 6 66% 5 of 7 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:03
2 Tony Gravely 0 20 of 44 45% 25 of 51 4 of 5 80% 0 0 3:33
Saimon Oliveira 0 18 of 29 62% 21 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
3 Tony Gravely 0 21 of 34 61% 27 of 45 5 of 5 100% 0 0 3:24
Saimon Oliveira 0 13 of 36 36% 24 of 47 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tony Gravely 46 of 99 46% 36 of 87 4 of 6 6 of 6 24 of 50 4 of 7 18 of 42
Saimon Oliveira 35 of 71 49% 21 of 53 9 of 13 5 of 5 27 of 62 8 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tony Gravely 5 of 21 23% 4 of 20 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 16
Saimon Oliveira 4 of 6 66% 2 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tony Gravely 20 of 44 45% 15 of 38 4 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 23 2 of 4 9 of 17
Saimon Oliveira 18 of 29 62% 11 of 22 4 of 4 3 of 3 10 of 20 8 of 9 0 of 0
3 Tony Gravely 21 of 34 61% 17 of 29 0 of 1 4 of 4 13 of 22 2 of 3 6 of 9
Saimon Oliveira 13 of 36 36% 8 of 27 4 of 8 1 of 1 13 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Tony Gravely

Angelo picks Tony Gravely despite the submission threat from Oliveira. He believes Gravely's wrestling and top pressure will be effective, similar to how Arjan Bhullar beat Oliveira. However, he warns that five of Gravely's seven losses are by submission, and Oliveira has 11 submission wins, so he will be looking at prop bets.

looking at prop bets
"i'm still gonna pick tony gravy to win here i think he'll have solid pressure and smother olivera similar to how you know ari ferrius beat oliveira but tony needs to watch out for elbows from the bottom and avoid …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tony Gravely

Big Brady picks Tony Gravely to win by first or second round knockout, citing his power advantage and superior competition. He notes Oliveira's record is padded and he is hittable. Gravely has multiple paths: knockout on the feet or takedown and ground-and-pound. The only concern is Gravely has been submitted before, but those were against elite grapplers. He expects Gravely to finish Oliveira early.

Gravely by KO in rounds 1-2; mentions Oliveira's padded record
"i'm going to take gravely to win by i'm going to say first or second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tony Gravely

Cody picks Tony Gravely, citing his collegiate wrestling, developing boxing, and power. He notes that Oliveira has never been finished and has poor defensive tendencies, leaving himself open to big shots. Cody believes Gravely's wrestling and striking will be too much, but warns that Gravely has cardio issues and can be reckless. He likes Gravely by knockout but notes the decision is possible.

Tony Gravely by knockout +225 at DraftKings
"Gravely is my pick... Gravely by knockout."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Saimon Oliveira

Daniel Levi picks Saimon Oliveira as an underdog. He notes that Tony Gravely has a history of mental lapses, getting submitted or knocked out after dominating early rounds. Oliveira is experienced (18-3), has fought tough competition like Ari Farias, and has knockout power and opportunistic submissions. Levi believes Gravely will muscle Oliveira around early but eventually leave his neck or chin out, allowing Oliveira to capitalize and get his first UFC win. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation.

Oliveira by opportunistic finish (submission or KO); +205 underdog
"i think that simon oliveira is going to capitalize and actually get his first ufc win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Saimon Oliveira

The host leans Oliveira because he believes Gravely's cardio is suspect and that Oliveira has advantages on the feet and in the clinch. He notes that Gravely tends to fade in later rounds and that Oliveira has good guillotine chokes if Gravely shoots desperately. He expects Oliveira to win by submission in the third round, but he is not confident enough to bet it heavily; he may take a small play on under 2.5 rounds.

Oliveira inside the distance (+400), under 2.5 rounds (+115)
"i do lean oliveira ever so slightly though i do think that he'll likely lose the first round so possibly a live betting opportunity there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tony Gravely

Paul picks Tony Gravely, agreeing that Gravely's wrestling and power are key. He notes that Oliveira has never been finished but puts himself in positions to get sparked. Paul warns that Gravely's cardio is a concern and that he gassed against Nate Maness. He advises not going too heavy on Gravely due to these risks.

"The pick is Tony Gravely but I've learned a little bit more, I don't want to go super high on him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Tony Gravely

The MMA Guru picks Tony Gravely, though hesitant due to Gravely's recent KO loss. He notes Gravely's tough competition and training at 80T, and believes his grappling and stand-up will be enough. He was unimpressed by Oliveira's contender series performance and predicts a close 29-28 decision.

"tony gravely gets this one done i wasn't too impressed by the contender series performance of oliveira"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Angelo picks Luan Lacerda based on his raw notes from watching their last fights. He describes Luan as 'incredibly dangerous' and constantly working towards submissions, while his notes for Saimon simply say 'sucks.' He acknowledges the layoff for Luan but believes he is fighting a lesser opponent and should win. He also suggests the odds might be a discount.

odds might be a discount
"Luan Lacerda is the pick. I hate the layoff, but he's fighting a suck."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Big Brady picks Luan Lacerda by default, as he is not picking Saimon Oliveira to beat anyone in the UFC. He notes Oliveira has no takedown defense, no cardio, and no durability, and that he almost died in a training accident. Lacerda is 0-2 in the UFC but has taken a two-year layoff; Brady expects him to get takedowns at will and potentially find a submission or win a decision. He calls the fight sketchy with two fighters who arguably shouldn't be in the UFC.

"I got to go Lera here by default. I mean, you know, I'm not picking Simon Oliver to beat literally anybody in the UFC."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Cody picks Lacerda, citing Oliveira's poor durability and technique. He notes Lacerda's body work and wrestling, and expects him to wear Oliveira down. He suggests live betting if Lacerda starts slow.

"I'll take low on Lerta."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Lucrative James picks Luan Lacerda to win, noting that Lacerda has shown better performances in the UFC despite being 0-2, and believes he should be 1-1. He highlights Lacerda's superior grappling and submission game, with six submission wins leading up to his UFC debut. He also mentions Lacerda's dangerous leg lock game but warns about his tendency to roll for leg locks, which got him knocked out in his last fight. He expects a finish inside the distance, likely by submission, but passes on betting due to the -245 price tag and layoff concerns.

inside the distance (no value at -180), under 1.5 rounds (+120)
"I kind of like Luan Lerta to win this one. He's minus 245 favorite. So, I can't really do business with him at that price tag."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Manpreet picks Lacerda but is wary of the long layoff and chalky odds. He believes Lacerda's BJJ will be the difference, expecting a submission win. However, he notes that Oliveira's grappling defense is not as dangerous as previous opponents, and the layoff makes Lacerda tough to trust at minus 260.

Lacerda by submission
"I'm going to go Lacerda. I think he probably wraps up a submission here and forces the tap from Oliveira, but very tough to trust him at minus 260 considering the long layoff."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Paul picks Lacerda, calling Oliveira the worst guy on the roster. He notes Oliveira's 0-3 record and reckless style, while Lacerda has faced better competition. He expects Lacerda to win, possibly by knockout or decision.

"Luan Lasser is a pick for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

The MMA Guru picks Luan Lacerda over Saimon Oliveira, citing toughness and durability advantages. He notes Oliveira seems 'soy' and easy to break, with a losing streak and finishes. Lacerda trains at a better gym (Nova União) and has had time off to develop. He predicts a late-round finish by TKO or submission.

"I'm going to go with Lan Lerta getting this one done. I think he's likely to get a finish here by TKO or submission in the later rounds."