UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025 · Women's Bantamweight · Completed
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Age 35
Height 5' 4"
Reach 67"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 35
Height 5' 8"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Beatriz Mesquita
5.78 SLpM
60.0% Str. Acc.
0.64 SApM
80.0% Str. Def.
4.81 TD Avg
75.0% TD Acc.
0.0% TD Def.
3.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Irina Alekseeva
3.42 SLpM
38.0% Str. Acc.
5.02 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
0.38 TD Avg
20.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Beatriz Mesquita
Moneyline
BetWay -549
KO/TKO
BetRivers +650
Submission
BetRivers -114
Decision
BetRivers +300
Irina Alekseeva
Moneyline
Caesars +460
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1900
Submission
BetRivers +1500
Decision
FanDuel +850
Beatriz Mesquita - Fight History
SCHED vs Melissa Mullins
WIN vs Montse Rendon
Submission R1 2:07 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Beatriz Mesquita 0 18 of 27 66% 31 of 40 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:46
Montse Rendon 0 0 of 8 0% 0 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Beatriz Mesquita 0 18 of 27 66% 31 of 40 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:46
Montse Rendon 0 0 of 8 0% 0 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Beatriz Mesquita 18 of 27 66% 16 of 25 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 6 0 of 1 12 of 20
Montse Rendon 0 of 8 0% 0 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Beatriz Mesquita 18 of 27 66% 16 of 25 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 6 0 of 1 12 of 20
Montse Rendon 0 of 8 0% 0 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Beatriz Mesquita vs. Montserrat Rendon
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mesquita (-550); Rendon (+400)

Round 1
Eric McMahon is the referee. Rendon is stumbled by a right and Mesquita goes on the attack, powering her her way into top position and unloading with ground and pound. Rendon scrambles back up only to be ground again. Mesquita gets full mount, where she’s dropping punches and elbows. Mesquita keeps her composure in the dominant position, picking her spots to land punches, hammerfists and elbows. Mesquita remains heavy on top, and she drops a heavy elbow, prompting Rendon to give up her back.
“Bia” wastes no time locking in a rear-naked choke, and Rendon taps out in a matter of seconds.
The Brazilian grappling ace is now 2-0 in the UFC with a pair of finishes to her credit.

The Official Result
Beatriz Mesquita def. Montserrat Rendon via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) R1 2:07
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Angelo picks Beatriz Mesquita but is not confident. He acknowledges her incredible jiu-jitsu but criticizes her poor striking and wrestling. He thinks if Montse Rendon can keep the fight standing, Mesquita will struggle. However, he picks Mesquita because of her finish upside if the fight goes to the ground. He advises against betting her at -450.

"I'm going to pick Bea because the all the finish upside is there. ... You cannot be betting on her at minus 450."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Big Brady picks Beatriz Mesquita to win by first-round submission, citing her elite jiu-jitsu and nasty ground-and-pound. He notes Mesquita can even compete on the feet against Rendon, who is slow and not great at anything. He expects Mesquita to take down Rendon and finish her quickly on the mat.

"give me Bea Mesquita, I'll say first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Cody picks Mesquita, citing her elite BJJ and ability to get takedowns. He notes Rendon's lack of finishing ability and poor striking accuracy. He expects Mesquita to submit or dominate on the ground.

Mesquita by submission +120
"I'm going to take BMs to get the job done."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Connor also picks Mesquita, emphasizing that Rendon is glacially slow and Mesquita should be able to take her down and submit her. He notes that Rendon has ideas but lacks the speed to execute them. Connor sees Mesquita's athleticism as the deciding factor.

Mesquita opened at -500, currently -700; Rendon opened at +375, currently +500
"Yeah, she should be able to BS her way to a win, honestly, just on physicality. Just even to speed and throwing an occasional jab and low kick."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

James picks Beatriz Mesquita to win by submission, highlighting her elite grappling and Rendon's lack of striking. He believes Rendon's only path is to clinch and make it gritty, but Mesquita will likely reverse or submit her. He expects an inside-the-distance win.

"my prediction is BMU via submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

The host picks Mesquita to win but is hesitant due to the steep odds. He acknowledges Mesquita's elite BJJ but questions her striking and wrestling against a strong, athletic opponent like Rendon. He expects the fight to go over 1.5 rounds and possibly to a decision, with Mesquita winning by grinding out a decision. He notes that Rendon's physicality and takedown defense could make it competitive, and he sees value in Rendon at plus odds.

over 1.5 rounds, Mesquita by decision (approx +300 to +400)
"I still believe Mosquito should be the favorite. She should be roughly around minus 150. So minus 550... I feel like there is a little bit of value on the Rendone side of things here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Paul picks Mesquita, noting her grappling credentials and Rendon's inability to finish. He thinks Mesquita will get takedowns and control the fight. He mentions the price is steep but justified.

"I think the UFC knows what they're doing here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Beatriz Mesquita

The Guru picks Beatriz Mesquita, calling her a generational jiu-jitsu athlete with dominant ground and pound. He thinks she will get takedowns and submit or ground-and-pound Rendon, though he notes the odds (-750) are too high. He expects Mesquita to get to dominant positions like the back or mount.

Odds comment: shouldn't be -750, more like -200 to -300
"I'm going to go with Bea Malecki here. I don't think she should be a minus 750 favorite."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Zane picks Beatriz Mesquita, noting that she is a natural athlete with a jiu-jitsu background, while Rendon is one of the slowest fighters in the UFC. He believes Mesquita's speed and grappling will overwhelm Rendon, unless Rendon's size advantage proves too much. He sees Mesquita as able to win on physicality alone.

Mesquita opened at -500, currently -700; Rendon opened at +375, currently +500
"Yep. Agreed. Physical pick. Miskita is a huge favorite, much bigger than she should be as a five foot four bantamweight, open at minus 500, currently minus 700."
Submission R2 2:14 · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Beatriz Mesquita 0 36 of 63 57% 61 of 98 2 of 3 66% 1 0 4:53
Irina Alekseeva 0 6 of 23 26% 17 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Beatriz Mesquita 0 36 of 58 62% 56 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:47
Irina Alekseeva 0 3 of 13 23% 3 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Beatriz Mesquita 0 0 of 5 0% 5 of 10 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:06
Irina Alekseeva 0 3 of 10 30% 14 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Beatriz Mesquita 36 of 63 57% 35 of 62 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 11 0 of 0 34 of 52
Irina Alekseeva 6 of 23 26% 3 of 12 0 of 3 3 of 8 6 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Beatriz Mesquita 36 of 58 62% 35 of 57 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 34 of 52
Irina Alekseeva 3 of 13 23% 2 of 8 0 of 2 1 of 3 3 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Beatriz Mesquita 0 of 5 0% 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Irina Alekseeva 3 of 10 30% 1 of 4 0 of 1 2 of 5 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Irina Alekseeva vs. Beatriz Mesquita
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mesquita (-600); Alekseeva (+450)

Round 1
The final women’s match of the day comes at 135 pounds between a newcomer and a Russian who likely is on the last fight of her initial four-bout deal with the UFC. Uber-talented grappler Mesquita (5-0, 0-0 UFC)—one of the best female grapplers ever, with more gold medals than Michael Phelps—gets to ply her trade in the Octagon. She faces a foe who calls herself “Russian Ronda,” but Alekseeva (5-3, 1-2 UFC) only sports one armbar in her career to date. What could be an interesting ground-based matchup will be officiated by referee Marc Goddard. The ladies tap their gloves together to engage.
Alekseeva assumes the center of the cage, while Mesquita keeps a wide berth away from practically anything the Russian tosses at her. Alekseeva gets off a jab or two, probing while the local contingent in the building call for her demise. Mesquita introduces herself a minute in with a chopping kick and a right hand, and she scores another when rushing towards “Russian Ronda” for a clinch to takedown effort. Mesquita presses Alekseeva to the wall, kicks off the fencing to creatively put Alekseeva on her back, and lands in full mount. Mesquita sells out looking for a finish via strikes, beating on Alekseeva like a rented mule. Punches and elbows continue to blast Alekseeva in the face, and a particularly harsh 12-to-6 elbow draws some blood on Alekseeva’s nose.
The grappler has Alekseeva flat on her back, bludgeoning her with punches and elbows as she sees fit, and she calms herself down rather than succumbing to an adrenaline dump hunting for the stoppage. No matter which way Alekseeva twists and bucks, Mesquita is comfortable on top of her making her day a bad one. Mesquita considers an arm-triangle choke, snaking her left arm behind the head, but she instead unloads with blistering elbows as Goddard is watching quite closely. The elbows have split Alekseeva open, and blood starts to pool in her eye socket. Mesquita sits up and considers an armbar, but instead postures up with seconds to go to rain down hellacious punches and elbows. Alekseeva somehow makes it to the bell, but if the second round goes anything like that, it may be a quick night at the office for the Brazilian.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mesquita
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-8 Mesquita
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Mesquita

Round 2
The Russian cleans up well between rounds, the blood all wiped away but her face undoubtedly showing some swelling…everywhere. Nevertheless, she works her way out of her corner and leads the dance with punches and kicks. With Mesquita constantly circling on the outer edge of the cage, Alekseeva has time to chip and probe with distant strikes. Mesquita clips her with a right hand, and she smoothly elevates and dumps Alekseeva to the floor effortlessly. By the time “Bia” hits the floor, she is somehow already in half guard, able to take side control if she moves just a slight bit up. Instead, her controlling posture shuts down Alekseeva, and she deftly advances to full mount.
Alekseeva bucks and turns to her back, and the textbook rear-naked choke from Mesquita is almost instantly set up. The grappling ace cinches her forearm beneath the chin without much resistance, and she rolls over to her back while leaning against the fencing to put as much pressure on the Russian as she can. Alekseeva’s arms start to show some slack as she stops fighting, and right before she goes out, her nose squirting a stream of blood in a less brutal version of Demian Maia vs. Rick Story, Alekseeva surrenders.
It was one-way traffic for the Brazilian, who makes a splash in her promotional debut and sets her sights on the top of her division.

The Official Result
Beatriz Mesquita def. Irina Alekseeva R2 2:14 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Angelo picks Beatriz Mesquita due to her elite grappling, calling her a 'death touch' on the ground. He believes if the fight goes to the ground, Bia wins. However, he warns against betting at -600 odds, as Irina is tough and has grappling of her own. He suggests waiting for better odds in future fights.

stay away from -600 odds
"I do think Bia wins this fight. I think it ends up on the ground somehow. And when it ends up on the ground, she'll take over. So she's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Big Brady picks Beatriz Mesquita to win by second-round TKO. He describes her as one of the best female grapplers in the world with a legit BJJ black belt and vicious ground and pound. He criticizes Irina Alekseeva as one of the worst fighters on the roster, with sloppy striking and no ground game. He expects Mesquita to get the fight down and finish quickly.

TKO
"I see Mosquita going out there getting her down at some point. And once she does, I think she's going to smash. So give me B Mosquito to win this fight by second round TKO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Cody picks Mesquita, noting her grappling credentials and Alekseeva's poor judo-based defense. He believes Mesquita will easily take her down and submit her. He calls it a straightforward fight.

submission
"I think this fight is very straightforward. I think Mosqu either subs her in the first round."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Lucrative James is confident in Beatriz Mesquita, a 10-time BJJ world champion, to submit Irina Alekseeva. He notes that Alekseeva has poor grappling and tends to engage in it despite being outmatched. He expects Mesquita to take her down and finish, likely in round two or three, as Mesquita is not a fast starter. He sees this as a setup fight for Mesquita.

"I honestly think that Alex Eva is probably going to play in the grappling here, which is insane against a grappling whiz like Beatric."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Manpreet is very confident in Mesquita, expecting her to submit Alekseeva early. He notes Alekseeva's poor takedown defense and Mesquita's elite BJJ. He recommends the under 1.5 rounds or Mesquita by submission prop as better bets than the moneyline.

Mesquita by submission (+135); under 1.5 rounds (+130)
"I think Mesquita probably gets this done early and gets that first round submission here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Paul picks Mesquita, calling it a 'CF dot model' fight. He notes her world-class jiu-jitsu and training at American Top Team, while Alekseeva is a fraud with poor striking and takedown defense. He expects a submission win.

submission
"I think Mosqu either subs her in the first round, the very least neutralizes her for two rounds."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

The MMA Guru picks Beatriz Mesquita over Irina Alekseeva, highlighting Mesquita's elite BJJ credentials and submission wins over Misha Tate and Jennifer Maia. He notes Alekseeva has lost to lesser competition and is 'double beneath' what he thought. He predicts a submission in the first or second round.

submission in round 1 or 2
"I'm going to go with Beia Mita by submission over Ina Alexa in the first or second round."
Irina Alekseeva - Fight History
Submission R2 2:14 · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Beatriz Mesquita 0 36 of 63 57% 61 of 98 2 of 3 66% 1 0 4:53
Irina Alekseeva 0 6 of 23 26% 17 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Beatriz Mesquita 0 36 of 58 62% 56 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:47
Irina Alekseeva 0 3 of 13 23% 3 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Beatriz Mesquita 0 0 of 5 0% 5 of 10 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:06
Irina Alekseeva 0 3 of 10 30% 14 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Beatriz Mesquita 36 of 63 57% 35 of 62 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 11 0 of 0 34 of 52
Irina Alekseeva 6 of 23 26% 3 of 12 0 of 3 3 of 8 6 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Beatriz Mesquita 36 of 58 62% 35 of 57 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 34 of 52
Irina Alekseeva 3 of 13 23% 2 of 8 0 of 2 1 of 3 3 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Beatriz Mesquita 0 of 5 0% 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Irina Alekseeva 3 of 10 30% 1 of 4 0 of 1 2 of 5 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Irina Alekseeva vs. Beatriz Mesquita
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mesquita (-600); Alekseeva (+450)

Round 1
The final women’s match of the day comes at 135 pounds between a newcomer and a Russian who likely is on the last fight of her initial four-bout deal with the UFC. Uber-talented grappler Mesquita (5-0, 0-0 UFC)—one of the best female grapplers ever, with more gold medals than Michael Phelps—gets to ply her trade in the Octagon. She faces a foe who calls herself “Russian Ronda,” but Alekseeva (5-3, 1-2 UFC) only sports one armbar in her career to date. What could be an interesting ground-based matchup will be officiated by referee Marc Goddard. The ladies tap their gloves together to engage.
Alekseeva assumes the center of the cage, while Mesquita keeps a wide berth away from practically anything the Russian tosses at her. Alekseeva gets off a jab or two, probing while the local contingent in the building call for her demise. Mesquita introduces herself a minute in with a chopping kick and a right hand, and she scores another when rushing towards “Russian Ronda” for a clinch to takedown effort. Mesquita presses Alekseeva to the wall, kicks off the fencing to creatively put Alekseeva on her back, and lands in full mount. Mesquita sells out looking for a finish via strikes, beating on Alekseeva like a rented mule. Punches and elbows continue to blast Alekseeva in the face, and a particularly harsh 12-to-6 elbow draws some blood on Alekseeva’s nose.
The grappler has Alekseeva flat on her back, bludgeoning her with punches and elbows as she sees fit, and she calms herself down rather than succumbing to an adrenaline dump hunting for the stoppage. No matter which way Alekseeva twists and bucks, Mesquita is comfortable on top of her making her day a bad one. Mesquita considers an arm-triangle choke, snaking her left arm behind the head, but she instead unloads with blistering elbows as Goddard is watching quite closely. The elbows have split Alekseeva open, and blood starts to pool in her eye socket. Mesquita sits up and considers an armbar, but instead postures up with seconds to go to rain down hellacious punches and elbows. Alekseeva somehow makes it to the bell, but if the second round goes anything like that, it may be a quick night at the office for the Brazilian.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mesquita
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-8 Mesquita
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Mesquita

Round 2
The Russian cleans up well between rounds, the blood all wiped away but her face undoubtedly showing some swelling…everywhere. Nevertheless, she works her way out of her corner and leads the dance with punches and kicks. With Mesquita constantly circling on the outer edge of the cage, Alekseeva has time to chip and probe with distant strikes. Mesquita clips her with a right hand, and she smoothly elevates and dumps Alekseeva to the floor effortlessly. By the time “Bia” hits the floor, she is somehow already in half guard, able to take side control if she moves just a slight bit up. Instead, her controlling posture shuts down Alekseeva, and she deftly advances to full mount.
Alekseeva bucks and turns to her back, and the textbook rear-naked choke from Mesquita is almost instantly set up. The grappling ace cinches her forearm beneath the chin without much resistance, and she rolls over to her back while leaning against the fencing to put as much pressure on the Russian as she can. Alekseeva’s arms start to show some slack as she stops fighting, and right before she goes out, her nose squirting a stream of blood in a less brutal version of Demian Maia vs. Rick Story, Alekseeva surrenders.
It was one-way traffic for the Brazilian, who makes a splash in her promotional debut and sets her sights on the top of her division.

The Official Result
Beatriz Mesquita def. Irina Alekseeva R2 2:14 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Angelo picks Beatriz Mesquita due to her elite grappling, calling her a 'death touch' on the ground. He believes if the fight goes to the ground, Bia wins. However, he warns against betting at -600 odds, as Irina is tough and has grappling of her own. He suggests waiting for better odds in future fights.

stay away from -600 odds
"I do think Bia wins this fight. I think it ends up on the ground somehow. And when it ends up on the ground, she'll take over. So she's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Big Brady picks Beatriz Mesquita to win by second-round TKO. He describes her as one of the best female grapplers in the world with a legit BJJ black belt and vicious ground and pound. He criticizes Irina Alekseeva as one of the worst fighters on the roster, with sloppy striking and no ground game. He expects Mesquita to get the fight down and finish quickly.

TKO
"I see Mosquita going out there getting her down at some point. And once she does, I think she's going to smash. So give me B Mosquito to win this fight by second round TKO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Cody picks Mesquita, noting her grappling credentials and Alekseeva's poor judo-based defense. He believes Mesquita will easily take her down and submit her. He calls it a straightforward fight.

submission
"I think this fight is very straightforward. I think Mosqu either subs her in the first round."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Lucrative James is confident in Beatriz Mesquita, a 10-time BJJ world champion, to submit Irina Alekseeva. He notes that Alekseeva has poor grappling and tends to engage in it despite being outmatched. He expects Mesquita to take her down and finish, likely in round two or three, as Mesquita is not a fast starter. He sees this as a setup fight for Mesquita.

"I honestly think that Alex Eva is probably going to play in the grappling here, which is insane against a grappling whiz like Beatric."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Manpreet is very confident in Mesquita, expecting her to submit Alekseeva early. He notes Alekseeva's poor takedown defense and Mesquita's elite BJJ. He recommends the under 1.5 rounds or Mesquita by submission prop as better bets than the moneyline.

Mesquita by submission (+135); under 1.5 rounds (+130)
"I think Mesquita probably gets this done early and gets that first round submission here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Paul picks Mesquita, calling it a 'CF dot model' fight. He notes her world-class jiu-jitsu and training at American Top Team, while Alekseeva is a fraud with poor striking and takedown defense. He expects a submission win.

submission
"I think Mosqu either subs her in the first round, the very least neutralizes her for two rounds."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

The MMA Guru picks Beatriz Mesquita over Irina Alekseeva, highlighting Mesquita's elite BJJ credentials and submission wins over Misha Tate and Jennifer Maia. He notes Alekseeva has lost to lesser competition and is 'double beneath' what he thought. He predicts a submission in the first or second round.

submission in round 1 or 2
"I'm going to go with Beia Mita by submission over Ina Alexa in the first or second round."
LOSS vs Klaudia Syguła
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Jun 21, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Irina Alekseeva 0 63 of 178 35% 74 of 200 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Klaudia Syguła 0 101 of 181 55% 156 of 248 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Irina Alekseeva 0 35 of 92 38% 35 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Klaudia Syguła 0 53 of 85 62% 53 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Irina Alekseeva 0 19 of 70 27% 19 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Klaudia Syguła 0 29 of 63 46% 29 of 63 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Irina Alekseeva 0 9 of 16 56% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Klaudia Syguła 0 19 of 33 57% 74 of 100 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Irina Alekseeva 63 of 178 35% 35 of 121 16 of 31 12 of 26 58 of 170 5 of 8 0 of 0
Klaudia Syguła 101 of 181 55% 63 of 133 21 of 30 17 of 18 93 of 171 5 of 6 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Irina Alekseeva 35 of 92 38% 20 of 66 8 of 17 7 of 9 34 of 89 1 of 3 0 of 0
Klaudia Syguła 53 of 85 62% 35 of 62 8 of 13 10 of 10 52 of 83 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Irina Alekseeva 19 of 70 27% 11 of 45 4 of 9 4 of 16 19 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
Klaudia Syguła 29 of 63 46% 15 of 45 7 of 10 7 of 8 29 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Irina Alekseeva 9 of 16 56% 4 of 10 4 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 11 4 of 5 0 of 0
Klaudia Syguła 19 of 33 57% 13 of 26 6 of 7 0 of 0 12 of 25 4 of 4 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Irina Alekseeva

Angelo picks Irina Alekseeva, noting her sambo background and ability to toss opponents. He mentions she is tough and moves forward, but has a two-year layoff which adds uncertainty. He thinks Claudia's clinch work will lead to her getting thrown. He is confident in the win but cautious about the layoff affecting performance.

Mentions $8,900 price point as tricky; considers her for fantasy but with caution due to layoff.
"I am going to pick Arena. $8,900 is like right there. It's another fighter that I'm pretty confident in, but once I'm looking at the pricing, it gets a little tricky."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Irina Alekseeva

Big Brady picks Irina Alekseeva, despite thinking she is not UFC level, because Syguła is even worse. He notes Syguła has poor ground game and has been finished on the mat multiple times. Alekseeva has solid judo and strength to get the fight to the ground. Brady predicts Alekseeva wins by first-round submission, likely an arm.

first round submission
"I'm going to go Arena Alexa. I'll take her to win by first round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Irina Alekseeva

The host likes Alekseeva but is not hot on the -255 line. He thinks her physicality will put Syguła in bad positions, leading to a ground-and-pound finish. He finds the under 2.5 rounds at plus money intriguing and predicts Alekseeva inside the distance.

under 2.5 rounds at plus money
"I really like me some Alex CA here, but I'm not too hot about that minus 255 line. I think her physicality will allow her to put Shigula into bad positions and I think that would actually lead to Alex …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Irina Alekseeva

The MMA Guru picks Irina Alekseeva, dismissing Klaudia Syguła as a 'project' brought in for her looks. He notes Alekseeva has UFC wins, including a submission via knee bar, and is more well-rounded. He also comments on Syguła's poor debut and suggests Alekseeva is physically stronger.

"I'm going with Ireina Alexa. And there's a little known trick to predicting women's MMA fights where ignore what you see when it comes to record."
LOSS vs Melissa Mullins
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Oct 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Melissa Mullins 1 48 of 108 44% 60 of 126 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:50
Irina Alekseeva 0 52 of 95 54% 87 of 148 0 of 1 0% 0 0 8:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Melissa Mullins 1 30 of 60 50% 37 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
Irina Alekseeva 0 23 of 37 62% 32 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:26
2 Melissa Mullins 0 8 of 20 40% 10 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Irina Alekseeva 0 12 of 21 57% 24 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:43
3 Melissa Mullins 0 10 of 28 35% 13 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
Irina Alekseeva 0 17 of 37 45% 31 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Melissa Mullins 48 of 108 44% 23 of 72 2 of 7 23 of 29 44 of 99 2 of 4 2 of 5
Irina Alekseeva 52 of 95 54% 47 of 89 5 of 6 0 of 0 42 of 76 1 of 1 9 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Melissa Mullins 30 of 60 50% 11 of 35 1 of 4 18 of 21 26 of 51 2 of 4 2 of 5
Irina Alekseeva 23 of 37 62% 21 of 35 2 of 2 0 of 0 22 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Melissa Mullins 8 of 20 40% 2 of 10 1 of 2 5 of 8 8 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Irina Alekseeva 12 of 21 57% 12 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 13 0 of 0 4 of 8
3 Melissa Mullins 10 of 28 35% 10 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Irina Alekseeva 17 of 37 45% 14 of 34 3 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 27 0 of 0 5 of 10
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Irina Alekseeva vs. Melissa Dixon
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dixon (-148), Alekseeva (+124)

Round 1
The line moves forward with a women’s bantamweight tilt pitting Alekseeva (5-1, 1-0 UFC) against the undefeated Dixon (5-0, 0-0 UFC). Mark Smith serves as the referee. They touch gloves and get going. Alekseeva hammers away with kicks to the inside and outside of the lead leg. Dixon test the water with her jab, but eats a sweeping left hook. Dixon follows a jab with hooks from both hands. Alekseeva moves forward. Dixon fires a jab through her defenses. Alekseeva lands a knee strike from the clinch, then gets warned for pulling Dixon’s hair. Dixon lands in combination, all set up by her excellent jab. Alekseeva slings powerful but unfocused punches. She steps into a right hand, floors Dixon and jumps into full guard. Alekseeva drops elbows but allows Dixon to get back to her feet. Alekseeva shots on the hips and secures a takedown. Both women have had their moments with a minute left in the round, though the knockdown figures to be the separator. Dixon works her way to the back with ground-and-pound and secures her position with hooks.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Alekseeva
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alekseeva
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Alekseeva

Round 2
Dixon blocks a head kick, eats an inside leg kick and gets going with the jab again. She doubles up on the punch, then cut loose with power punches. Alekseeva returns to swinging for the fences. Nothing lands. Back in the center of the cage, Dixon times a thudding right hand and then trips the Russian to the floor. She moves immediately to full mount and pounds away with punches, elbows and forearm strikes. Dixon floats to the back and secures position with hooks. She brilliantly uses a half nelson to maintain back control, piles up points with hammerfists and locks in a body triangle. Dixon moves back to mount, connects with an elbow and returns to back control. The newcomer may have found a clear path to victory here.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Dixon
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dixon
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Dixon

Round 3
Dixon stars the final round with her jab, sneaks in a left hook and avoids a wild spinning backfist. Alekseeva presses forward and nearly surrenders a takedown. She looks exhausted. Dixon connects with a one-two. Alekseeva marches forward almost maniacally with straight punches. Dixon wearing considerable damage but appears to have the upper hand here. Alekseeva scores with a head-and-arm throw but fails to corral Dixon. The Englishwoman scrambles to her feet and secures a takedown of her own, then climbs to full mount. Half a round left. Alekseeva tries to bridge out but wastes valuable energy while doing so and ultimately fails. Dixon settles in mount, applies her ground-and-pound and fights through fatigue. Dixon moves to back control and peppers away with short punches, then threatens the neck. Alekseeva appears to have no fuel left in the tank. Dixon moves back to mount with 30 seconds to go and drops elbows, punches and hammerfists. It looks like Alekseeva will survive, but she eats more shots as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Dixon (29-28 Dixon)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dixon (29-28 Dixon)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Dixon (29-28 Dixon)

The Official Result
Melissa Dixon def. Irina Alekseeva—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Melissa Mullins

Angelo is confident in Melissa Mullins, praising her impressive striking and composure. He warns that she tends to initiate unnecessary clinches, which could play into Alekseeva's submission game, but he trusts her to keep distance and pick Alekseeva apart on the feet.

"Melissa should run away with this fight her striking is very very imp like very impressive striking"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Mullins

Big Brady picks Melissa Mullins to win by third-round TKO. He thinks the fight will be on the mat, where Mullins has good top control and ground-and-pound. He expects Alekseeva to slow down as the fight goes on, allowing Mullins to finish late.

Mullins by TKO in round 3
"I'm going to take Melissa Dixon to win this fight I'll take her to win this fight by third round TKO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Mullins

Cody picks Mullins, citing her experience and well-rounded skills. He notes her takedown defense and ability to persevere, as seen in her win over an undefeated fighter. Cody believes Alekseeva is flashy but lacks substance, and that Mullins will take over as the fight goes on.

"Melissa Dixon is the pick"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Melissa Mullins

The host picks Melissa Mullins (referred to as Melissa Dixon) making her UFC debut. He praises her ability to close the pocket, get the fight to the ground, and maintain top control with great cardio. He expects her to finish Alexa in the latter half of the fight as Alexa slows down.

by finish in latter half
"I fully expect Dixon to go out there control this fight for at least a round and a half two rounds and then eventually fin a finish in the latter half of this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Mullins

Paul picks Mullins, noting that Alekseeva missed weight in her debut and has not shown much. He believes Mullins has a more well-rounded skill set and that Alekseeva's only path is a quick submission. Paul expects Mullins to win a decision or get a late finish.

"I'll side with you on Melissa Dixon"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Irina Alekseeva

The MMA Guru picks Irina Alekseeva as an underdog over Melissa Mullins. He notes that Mullins is an undefeated prospect (5-0) but he doesn't trust undefeated women's prospects in the UFC, especially at age 32 making her debut. He criticizes Mullins' win over a 7-0 opponent, saying she was getting dominated before a premature stoppage. He believes Alekseeva has better standup and clinch strength, and has fought tougher opponents.

"I'm going to go of the underdog of Irena Alex Sia um I think she's got a bit more grit on the feet"
Submission (kneebar) R1 2:11 · UFC on ESPN: Song vs. Simon · Apr 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Irina Alekseeva 0 9 of 24 37% 9 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephanie Egger 0 18 of 44 40% 18 of 44 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Irina Alekseeva 0 9 of 24 37% 9 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephanie Egger 0 18 of 44 40% 18 of 44 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Irina Alekseeva 9 of 24 37% 3 of 17 0 of 0 6 of 7 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephanie Egger 18 of 44 40% 7 of 31 7 of 8 4 of 5 17 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Irina Alekseeva 9 of 24 37% 3 of 17 0 of 0 6 of 7 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephanie Egger 18 of 44 40% 7 of 31 7 of 8 4 of 5 17 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Stephanie Egger

Cody picks Egger, citing her legitimate judo pedigree and clinch advantage. He notes that Alekseeva has power but poor boxing and may struggle with Egger's clinch work. He expects the fight to end up in the clinch, where Egger has the edge. He also mentions that Alekseeva's competition level is questionable.

"gotta go with Stephanie Edgar but you know talking about spots you always get burned on Pat Mayo would throw all of this logic out the window"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Stephanie Egger

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Egger's judo is much more technical and she is physically stronger. He points out that Alekseeva has a frame that makes it hard to build core strength, and she lacks the power to toss opponents around. Connor sees Egger as a clear favorite.

"I mean i'm just gonna steal your thunder and say stephanie agar's is much more... she's solid at the moment. She's like stronger and harder hitting and her judo is much more technical."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Stephanie Egger

Paul picks Egger and has a PrizePicks play on her under 33.5 significant strikes, noting her low volume. He believes Egger will win but is not heavily invested due to the high price. He mentions that Egger is a low-volume fighter who looks for submissions rather than ground-and-pound.

Stephanie Egger under 33.5 significant strikes (PrizePicks)
"Edgar in terms of my prize picks play there never got over 30 significant strikes"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Stephanie Egger

Zane picks Egger because she is stronger, harder hitting, and has more technical judo. He notes that Alekseeva lacks core strength and struggles to complete takedowns, while Egger is scrappy and has been in tough fights. Zane believes Egger will easily flail into the clinch and dominate.

Odds comment: Egger opened at -290 and stayed there; Alekseeva opened at +247.
"I'm taking agar. I mean agar is agar has been in a ton of really difficult fights... I think she's going to have a really easy time just sort of flailing her way into the clinch"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Angelo picks Beatriz Mesquita due to her elite grappling, calling her a 'death touch' on the ground. He believes if the fight goes to the ground, Bia wins. However, he warns against betting at -600 odds, as Irina is tough and has grappling of her own. He suggests waiting for better odds in future fights.

stay away from -600 odds
"I do think Bia wins this fight. I think it ends up on the ground somehow. And when it ends up on the ground, she'll take over. So she's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Big Brady picks Beatriz Mesquita to win by second-round TKO. He describes her as one of the best female grapplers in the world with a legit BJJ black belt and vicious ground and pound. He criticizes Irina Alekseeva as one of the worst fighters on the roster, with sloppy striking and no ground game. He expects Mesquita to get the fight down and finish quickly.

TKO
"I see Mosquita going out there getting her down at some point. And once she does, I think she's going to smash. So give me B Mosquito to win this fight by second round TKO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Cody picks Mesquita, noting her grappling credentials and Alekseeva's poor judo-based defense. He believes Mesquita will easily take her down and submit her. He calls it a straightforward fight.

submission
"I think this fight is very straightforward. I think Mosqu either subs her in the first round."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Lucrative James is confident in Beatriz Mesquita, a 10-time BJJ world champion, to submit Irina Alekseeva. He notes that Alekseeva has poor grappling and tends to engage in it despite being outmatched. He expects Mesquita to take her down and finish, likely in round two or three, as Mesquita is not a fast starter. He sees this as a setup fight for Mesquita.

"I honestly think that Alex Eva is probably going to play in the grappling here, which is insane against a grappling whiz like Beatric."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Manpreet is very confident in Mesquita, expecting her to submit Alekseeva early. He notes Alekseeva's poor takedown defense and Mesquita's elite BJJ. He recommends the under 1.5 rounds or Mesquita by submission prop as better bets than the moneyline.

Mesquita by submission (+135); under 1.5 rounds (+130)
"I think Mesquita probably gets this done early and gets that first round submission here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Paul picks Mesquita, calling it a 'CF dot model' fight. He notes her world-class jiu-jitsu and training at American Top Team, while Alekseeva is a fraud with poor striking and takedown defense. He expects a submission win.

submission
"I think Mosqu either subs her in the first round, the very least neutralizes her for two rounds."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

The MMA Guru picks Beatriz Mesquita over Irina Alekseeva, highlighting Mesquita's elite BJJ credentials and submission wins over Misha Tate and Jennifer Maia. He notes Alekseeva has lost to lesser competition and is 'double beneath' what he thought. He predicts a submission in the first or second round.

submission in round 1 or 2
"I'm going to go with Beia Mita by submission over Ina Alexa in the first or second round."