Career Averages - Bogdan Grad
Career Averages - Luke Riley
Bogdan Grad - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogdan Grad | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 17 of 24 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Luke Riley | 1 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 20 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bogdan Grad | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 16 of 20 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Luke Riley | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Bogdan Grad | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Luke Riley | 1 | 11 of 16 | 68% | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogdan Grad | 7 of 13 | 53% | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 |
| Luke Riley | 14 of 23 | 60% | 11 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bogdan Grad | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 |
| Luke Riley | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Bogdan Grad | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Luke Riley | 11 of 16 | 68% | 10 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 11 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Riley (-275); Grad (+225)
Round 1
At long last, the prelims come to a head with a featherweight clash of neophytes with the promotion. Relatively speaking, the UFC veteran Grad (15-3, 1-1 UFC) with two appearances and a grainy Fight Finder photo—we will work on that—has finished 80% of his wins inside the distance. He meets surging Liverpudlian Riley (11-0, 0-0 UFC), an unbeaten teammate of potential upcoming title challenger Paddy Pimblett. Referee Marc Goddard cracks his knuckles ahead of this pairing, one that kicks off as the athletes opt to touch ‘em up.
Grad rushes right after Riley to start the round, spinning his way in but not committing to anything. As Riley circles away, Grad chases him with a spinning wheel kick that misses the mark. Riley strafes to the side, and he stops as Grad charges him to get hold of a single. Riley grabs the fence to stay on his feet, and Grad pulls him away from it to ground him in the open cage away from the wall. It is a bit of stalemate once they hit the ground, with Riley acquitting himself well on the mat not taking much fire.
Riley eventually works to his feet, and Grad is on him like a cheap suit. Grad wraps up Riley from behind and seeks a mat return, but the Liverpool native scrapes Grad off his back and turns it to the wall. Grad rips punches to the body, and Riley responds with a few knees. Grad slashes with an elbow that he uses to commit to a single, and he drags the undefeated man to the floor. Grad lets Riley back up so he can get off another standing elbow. When Rile takes a second to reset, Grad bull-rushes him hunting for a single. Grad switches from one leg to the other in pursuit of the takedown, and Riley checks his oil and is dragged to his seat. “The Unleashed” unleashes a flurry of swinging punches with Riley on his seat, only stopping when the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Grad
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Grad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Grad
Round 2
Grad offers a fist bump and then follows with a head kick. They both wing hooks at one another, and they miss the mark wildly.
Riley winds up and blasts Grad with a left hand that sends him cinematically twirling down to the mat in a heap. Riley leaps on top of the grounded man and starts battering him with his fists, and he knocks Grad in and out of consciousness as he bludgeons the Austrian.
As Grad’s lights go out, Goddard jumps in to halt the fight. Grad tries to get up, but he cannot stand on his own power and Goddard saves him from crashing and burning. What a comeback for the still-undefeated man from Liverpool, with his team including the aforementioned Pimblett going bonkers in his corner for his triumphant UFC debut—by knockout, as is his custom.
The Official Result
Luke Riley def. Bogdan Grad R2 0:30 via KO (Punches)
Angelo leans Luke Riley over Bogdan Grad, citing Riley's speed and cleaner striking. He notes Grad has a wrestling advantage but Riley has shown good takedown defense in every fight. Angelo warns that Cage Warriors prospects can be overhyped, so he's cautious but picks Riley due to speed being the biggest factor.
Big Brady picks Luke Riley by third-round knockout, impressed by his power and striking. He notes Grad's hittability and questionable chin, and expects Riley to find the chin as Grad slows down. He acknowledges Grad's grappling path but doesn't think he'll fight smart.
Cody picks Luke Riley, believing his volume and cardio will overwhelm Grad. He notes that Grad has poor takedown defense and tends to lose position. Cody thinks Riley can work his way back into the fight if taken down and finish via knockout.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Riley. He notes that Riley is speedy, crafty, and scrappy, and if Grad shows any weakness on the feet or fails to get takedowns, Riley will build a brutal assault. He mentions Riley's age (26) and potential to develop physicality. He also notes that Riley got hurt in a previous fight but showed inexperience.
Riley is a nasty striker with good takedown defense, but the odds are too wide. Grad has grappling opportunities and could win by submission or decision. Riley by TKO is the prediction, but a sprinkle on Grad is considered.
Paul leans towards Luke Riley but is tempted by Bogdan Grad as an underdog. He notes Riley's all-action style and gas tank, but acknowledges Grad's wrestling could be a problem. Paul ultimately sides with Riley due to his volume and finishing ability.
The MMA Guru picks Luke Riley over Bogdan Grad, believing Riley's size and striking will be too much. He notes Grad's struggles in the clinch against Naimov. He expects Riley to rip body shots and finish by TKO in the second or third round, though he acknowledges Grad is dangerous early.
Zane picks Riley but acknowledges it's a fight he might lose. He notes that Grad is a high-motor, experienced fighter who can test Riley physically. He thinks Riley is faster, more precise, and smarter on the feet, and that Grad is slow and awkward with bad shot selection. He worries about Riley's physicality and takedown defense but believes Riley can fight his way back if not finished early.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 18 of 54 | 33% | 70 of 119 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 2:53 |
| Bogdan Grad | 0 | 31 of 64 | 48% | 49 of 88 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 5:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 24 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Bogdan Grad | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 23 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 6 of 21 | 28% | 12 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bogdan Grad | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 15 of 27 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:01 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 34 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:30 |
| Bogdan Grad | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 11 of 22 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Naimov | 18 of 54 | 33% | 11 of 45 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 16 of 50 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Bogdan Grad | 31 of 64 | 48% | 7 of 30 | 14 of 19 | 10 of 15 | 18 of 46 | 13 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Naimov | 10 of 22 | 45% | 6 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 19 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Bogdan Grad | 15 of 30 | 50% | 3 of 12 | 6 of 9 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 18 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Naimov | 6 of 21 | 28% | 3 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Bogdan Grad | 10 of 21 | 47% | 3 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Naimov | 2 of 11 | 18% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bogdan Grad | 6 of 13 | 46% | 1 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Naimov (-230), Grad (+190)
Round 1
What was once a stadium-drawing attraction has become old hat for Tajikistan’s Naimov (12-3, 4-1 UFC), who is already taking his sixth walk to the Octagon since debuting in the middle of 2023. The man known as “Hillman” will take one of the few other Austrian talents on the roster in the form of Grad (15-2, 1-0 UFC). Drawing the charge for this featherweight contest is referee Marc Goddard, who stands back to let the fighters come together and touch ‘em up. Grad is fired up and jittery, missing with a front kick and slapping the front leg with his shin. Naimov responds with his own low kick and sways out of the way of an overhand right. Grad reaches him with a rear low kick, and he lands a second as Naimov is changing stances. Grad drops his hands and engages, kicking his man in the side and getting tagged with a right hand over the top. Grad just misses a spinning wheel kick effort, and the crowd starts chanting for Naimov. Naimov says two can play that game and zings Grad with his own wheel kick, shaking Grad up badly. Grad musters up every bit of his willpower to rush forward, still wobbled, and tackle the Tajik fighter to the mat. Naimov gets back to his feet but eats an elbow in the process, and he breaks out. Naimov strings together a combination ending with an elbow, and Grad is tough as nails as he rushes forward. Naimov catches him on the way forward with a left hand, and he hops back to dodge a wheel kick. Naimov counters with a back fist, and as he rushes forward, Grad clips him with a punch that knocks his mouthguard out. With Grad pushing Naimov to the fence, Goddard replaces the fighter’s mouthpiece without needing to break the action up. The two fighters jockey for position, and Naimov drives a knee up the middle and eats an elbow right before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Naimov
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Naimov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Naimov
Round 2
The fighters tap glove before getting after it, where they trade high kicks as Grad roars at his foe. Grad whiffs on a jumping kick, and he swipes a left hand behind the ear that appears to destabilize his adversary. Naimov backs off, avoiding a wheel kick and tripping himself up on the outer gate area. Grad marches him down, trying another spin but settling down with a body kick that pounds his man in the side. They kick at the same time, and Grad nods at him and rips unloads with a left hand around the guard. Naimov pays him back with interest in the form of a one-two, and he nearly bites on a faked takedown effort. Grad spins with a kick that misses, setting him up for a double-leg takedown try. Grad takes Naimov from behind as he leans him against the wall, slugging him in the side of the head once before Naimov turns himself around. Grad drops down low for a takedown, and he is shut down for it. Naimov elbows to break off, and he spins with a back kick that lands on Grad’s hip. Grad walks forward to deliver a kick on the inside of the lead leg, and he backs off to dodge the head kick but is not out of range from a one-two that tags him. Naimov circles around until settling down, as Grad looks for a rushing up-elbow and shoots for a takedown. Naimov latches onto the neck with a guillotine choke, only for Grad to switch to the other side and laugh off the submission. Grad goes after the double, and he lands it with five seconds left. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Grad
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Grad
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Grad
Round 3
Grad is fired up to start off the round, rifling off kicks from both legs. Naimov spins with a back elbow that clips the side of the head, and his spinning wheel kick stuns Grad but does not put him down. Grade gathers his thoughts and shoots for a double, ultimately putting Naimov down to the ground as he redoubles his effort. The Austrian gets both hooks in, and Naimov stands up even with Grad on his back. Naimov grabs hold of Grad’s foot to spin him around, and he lowers himself down to the mat to establish top position. Grad throws his legs up in pursuit of a triangle choke, and Naimov shoves the legs over to shut it down. Grad complains to Goddard about something, and Goddard asks them for more activity as Naimov is in a holding pattern. Grad sits up for a moment, and Goddard stands them up with 90 seconds to spare. Grad marches his man down, digs a left to the liver and shoots for a double. When stopped, Grad goes high with a clacking elbow. Grad hangs on tight and changes levels, kneeing Naimov in the gut but not able to keep him there. Naimov splits with 30 seconds left, and he says hello against with a spinning wheel kick. Grad greets him back with a head kick that brushes the beard, and he considers a spin but bails on it. Grad wants a brawl, and Naimov will not oblige as the fight ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Naimov (29-28 Naimov)
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Naimov (29-28 Naimov)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Naimov (29-28 Naimov)
The Official Result
Muhammadjon Naimov def. Bogdan Grad via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Muhammad Naimov, but with reservations. He thinks Naimov is slightly better everywhere and will win a close decision, but notes that Naimov doesn't chase finishes and may coast. He acknowledges Bogdan's finishing ability and the risk of a finish if Bogdan's cardio holds. He fades Naimov for fantasy due to low scoring potential.
Big Brady picks Muhammad Naimov, citing his power as a key factor. He notes that Bogdan Grad absorbs a high volume of strikes (8 per minute) and that Naimov has knockout power, having slept Jamie Mullarkey and hurt others. Brady thinks Naimov is more durable and has takedown defense to keep the fight standing. He predicts Naimov wins by first-round knockout, though he acknowledges Grad has more heart.
Connor picks Naimov, agreeing that Naimov's athleticism and strength will overwhelm Grad, who is not strong in tie-ups and relies on outlasting opponents. He notes that Naimov's mistakes and over-aggression won't be punished by Grad, who lacks the athleticism to capitalize. He believes Naimov will be able to impose his will and win the fight.
The host doesn't understand the love for Naimov outside of power punching. He thinks if Naimov can't get Grad out early, Grad will push a pace and pressure that Naimov can't keep up with, leading to a submission in the second or third round.
The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Naimov, criticizing Bogdan Grad's lackluster performances. He notes Naimov's power and ability to manhandle opponents, and despite a loss to Felipe Lima, he sees Naimov as the better fighter. He predicts a dominant decision or first-round finish.
Zane picks Naimov, citing his superior athleticism and physicality compared to Grad. He notes that Grad is a pace fighter who relies on accumulation, but lacks strength in tie-ups and is foot-slow. Naimov, despite being reckless, is strong and powerful in the clinch and will maul Grad. He draws a parallel to Rębecki vs Orolbai, where the more brutish fighter won.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogdan Grad | 0 | 46 of 66 | 69% | 59 of 86 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 4:18 |
| Lucas Alexander | 0 | 34 of 52 | 65% | 47 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bogdan Grad | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 13 of 20 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 1:17 |
| Lucas Alexander | 0 | 15 of 23 | 65% | 28 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:13 | |
| 2 | Bogdan Grad | 0 | 41 of 57 | 71% | 46 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:01 |
| Lucas Alexander | 0 | 19 of 29 | 65% | 19 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogdan Grad | 46 of 66 | 69% | 42 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 34 of 44 |
| Lucas Alexander | 34 of 52 | 65% | 19 of 37 | 7 of 7 | 8 of 8 | 29 of 45 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bogdan Grad | 5 of 9 | 55% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Lucas Alexander | 15 of 23 | 65% | 10 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | |
| 2 | Bogdan Grad | 41 of 57 | 71% | 37 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 34 of 44 |
| Lucas Alexander | 19 of 29 | 65% | 9 of 19 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Featherweights are next to the stage, as Alexander (8-4, 1-2 UFC) collides with Grad (14-2, 0-0 UFC) at 145 pounds. Kerry Hatley serves as the third man in the cage. Grad immediately pushes forward and walks into a few punches and leg kicks. He shoots on the hips, then settles into the clinch. Alexander turns him into the cage, and they jockey for position. They separate. Grad presses forward. Alexander narrowly misses on a flying knee. Overhand right from Grad, followed by a short left hook. He threatens with a single-leg and uses it to sneak behind Alexander. Grad feeds the Brazilian knees to the legs. Elbows from Alexander, who counters a takedown into top position. Ground-and-pound ensues. Alexander now hovering above his counterpart. Grad kicks at the knees from the butt-scoot position. He scrambles to his feet and secures a double-leg takedown. Alexander sweeps and again stands above his opponent, kicking at the legs. A minute to go. Grad stands. Multi-punch combos from Alexander. Alexander clips Grad with an elbow on the way in, shrugs off a takedown attempt and scrambles into a position from which he can strike.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Alexander
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Alexander
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alexander
Round 2
Grad charges forward, and they exchange leg kicks. Alexander circles off the cage. Powerful leg kick from Alexander sits down Grad. Sharp one-two from the Brazilian, then another. Alexander snaps back Grad’s head with an uppercut. Not going well for Grad. Alexander cutting loose with two-, three- and four-punch bursts. Grad counters a leg kick into a takedown and sets up in half guard, then progresses briefly to full mount. Alexander scrambles. Grad settles back in mount and gets his ground-and-pound in gear. Alexander reclaims half guard, but the tide seems to have turned, at least for now. Elbows and hammerfists from Grad.
Back to full mount. Alexander fading here. Crushing elbow from Grad and another. Punches fall in bunches, with Hatley hovering overhead. More unanswered punches from Grad, and the veteran referee intervenes
.
The Official Result
Bogdan Grad def. Lucas Alexander—TKO (Punches) 4:22 R2
Angelo picks Bogdan Grad because of his well-rounded skills, methodical approach, and high finishing rate (11 stoppages in 14 wins). He notes that Lucas Alexander is dangerous but coming off a KO loss to a low-level opponent. He believes Grad's control and pace will be mistaken for inability to finish, but Grad finds finishes without being reckless.
Big Brady likes Lucas Alexander's striking and thinks he trains with good guys. He notes Alexander has been submitted three times and has questionable takedown defense, but believes Alexander will piece up Bogdan Grad across three rounds. Grad is tough and has heart but is a walking punching bag. Brady would have liked Alexander more at +170 but thinks pick 'em is about accurate.
Alexander's Muay Thai striking and ability to fight from both stances will allow him to pick apart Grad's erratic style. Grad's explosivity and grappling may cause early trouble, but Alexander's technical striking and work off the back foot should secure a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Grad, believing he is good enough on the feet to hang with Lucas Alexander and will have a takedown threat advantage. He notes Alexander is coming off a first-round TKO loss and has been out for over a year. He thinks Grad can get the job done early.
Luke Riley - Fight History
AJ picks Luke Riley to win a decision, emphasizing his sharp kickboxing, speed, and power advantage. He believes Kamaka is durable but lacks finishing power, and that Riley's cleaner striking will outpoint him. AJ notes that Riley is a prospect on the rise and that Kamaka's recent loss to Diego Brandao is a concern.
AJ feels Luke Riley is a confident pick, noting that Kamaka doesn't offer much damage threat. He thinks Riley will touch Kamaka's chin and possibly get a KO in the second or third round, or win by decision. He mentions Riley by KO round 2 at +850 and Riley by decision at +120.
AJ picks Luke Riley by decision, praising his precise straight punches and speed. He believes Riley's technical striking will outwork Kai Kamaka's pressure boxing, and that Kamaka's takedown threats won't be enough. He notes the odds are too wide but still favors Riley.
AJ picks Luke Riley but emphasizes it will be a hard-fought win. He notes Kamaka is well-rounded, very experienced, and has fought in UFC, PFL, and Bellator. He warns that Riley's price tag is incredibly high and that betting on him is risky.
AJ picks Luke Riley, noting he is a big favorite and should win. He acknowledges Kamaka is a tough journeyman but believes Riley will pull it off.
AJ picks Luke Riley to beat Kai Kamaka, citing Riley's striking and Kamaka's lack of power. He believes Riley's clean boxing and leg kicks will overwhelm Kamaka, who is a journeyman. He sees a potential knockout or decision win for Riley.
Angelo picks Luke Riley because he is faster, cleaner, and more technical. He notes that Riley's takedown defense is okay and he stays busy. He worries about Cage Warriors signings when they face gritty opponents, but believes Riley should win straightforwardly. He thinks the matchup is favorable and Riley is the better striker.
Angelo picks Luke Riley, citing his cleaner striking, speed, and range management. He is slightly nervous due to past English prospects failing in the UFC. He expects a decision win, not a finish, due to Kai's toughness and Luke's outside fighting style.
Big Brady is confident Riley wins by decision. He thinks Riley will have the bigger moments and land bigger shots, but Kamaka is stupid tough and the fight likely goes the distance. He notes the -400 opener was wild, but still thinks Riley wins. He might look at a decision prop or fight goes the distance.
Big Brady picks Luke Riley to win by decision. He highlights Riley's power and better defense, expecting him to land harder shots than Kamaka. He notes Kamaka's toughness and solid skills but believes Riley's power will be the difference. He acknowledges Kamaka might mix in takedowns but thinks Riley will get back up and out-strike him.
Big Brady passes on this fight, calling it a 'close but clear winner' for Luke Riley based on power and big moments, but expects a decision. He notes Kamaka is tough and his fights are often close, so he does not bet.
Cody picks Luke Riley, citing his superior striking and power. He notes Kamaka's tendency to go to decision and be in close fights. However, he is cautious about the price and expects a competitive fight, possibly a split decision.
Daniel Levi picks Luke Riley to defeat Kai Kamaka, citing Riley's speed, athleticism, and power advantage. He acknowledges Kamaka's experience and well-rounded skills but believes Riley can do enough to win at least two rounds. Levi does not predict a knockout but expects a clear decision win.
Jacob picks Luke Riley but is not confident, having been anti-Riley in the past. He notes that Kai Kamaka is a tough veteran who doesn't get pushed around, and that Riley has been taken down and controlled before. However, he believes Riley is the better striker in a mostly striking matchup and should win, but warns that if Kamaka gets in his face early, it could get interesting.
Lucrative James picks Luke Riley via decision, expecting a competitive striking fight. He believes Riley is the better boxer with more power and will defend takedowns after round one. He notes Kamaka's toughness but thinks Riley's offensive boxing will pull away in the later rounds.
The host acknowledges the fight will be closer than odds indicate and that an underdog shot on Kamaka could be warranted. However, he believes Riley will land more significant and eye-catching shots, leading to a decision win.
The host picks Riley to win by decision, believing his striking will land the more eye-catching shots. However, he considers Kamaka a live underdog due to his experience and well-roundedness, and notes the -305 line is too steep.
Paul picks Luke Riley by decision, noting Kamaka's durability and tendency to go to split decisions. He likes the split decision prop at +550. He acknowledges Riley's grappling deficiencies but believes his boxing will be enough.
The MMA Guru picks Luke Riley to win by KO in the first or second round. He likes Riley's boxing advantage and believes Riley will catch a kick and counter. He notes that Kamaka is no joke but thinks Riley's power and timing will be the difference. He also mentions that Riley should not be a -290 favorite, more like -190 or -200.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Riley | 0 | 100 of 177 | 56% | 113 of 192 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 0 | 61 of 180 | 33% | 107 of 233 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luke Riley | 0 | 33 of 56 | 58% | 45 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 0 | 20 of 59 | 33% | 54 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:05 | |
| 2 | Luke Riley | 0 | 35 of 70 | 50% | 35 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 0 | 30 of 81 | 37% | 36 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 3 | Luke Riley | 0 | 32 of 51 | 62% | 33 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 0 | 11 of 40 | 27% | 17 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Riley | 100 of 177 | 56% | 65 of 134 | 31 of 36 | 4 of 7 | 90 of 166 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 61 of 180 | 33% | 48 of 158 | 13 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 58 of 169 | 3 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luke Riley | 33 of 56 | 58% | 22 of 42 | 10 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 30 of 53 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 20 of 59 | 33% | 17 of 52 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 18 of 53 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Luke Riley | 35 of 70 | 50% | 22 of 55 | 10 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 34 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 30 of 81 | 37% | 22 of 69 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 29 of 77 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Luke Riley | 32 of 51 | 62% | 21 of 37 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 44 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 11 of 40 | 27% | 9 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Riley (-300); Aswell (+250)
Round 1
Jason Herzog is the referee. Aswell hurries to the center of the cage. Riley pumps out his jab. Riley rips the body but Aswell counters with a hard right. Aswell closes the distance behind a flurry of punches. Now in the clinch, Aswell lands short shots to the body. Aswell separates and they’re back at range. Aswell forces the clinch once again, and he goes back to landing short shots in close. Aswell lands a right on the break. Aswell lands a left hook in an exchange. They’re trading now, and both men land. Aswell follows a 1-2 into the clinch. They disengage and a right connects for Aswell. Riley lands a 1-2 to put Aswell on his heels. Another combination lands for Riley, but Aswell rolls with it. Aswell with a front kick. Riley with a left hook followed by a right hand. Another right lands for Riley, who seems to be getting comfortable. Riley catches Aswell with another right and then he tags his foe with a left hook. Aswell with a jab and then just misses a huge right. Aswell follows a low kick with a jab to the body. Riley pressures up until the horn, landing another right in the process.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Round 2
Riley kicks the lead leg. Riley lands a jab and avoids an Aswell combination. A laser right snaps Aswell’s head back. The Brit jabs the body, lands a right and then avoids Aswell’s counter. Another jab to the body for Riley, who follows with a combination. Aswell grabs a body lock after Riley slips to the floor. He’s attached to Riley’s back, landing knees to the thighs. They separate and are back at range. Aswell pressures and lands a jab. Riley continues to target the body with a jab. Riley has the more crisp strikes, and he seems to be landing more effectively in exchanges. A lead hook lands for Riley and then he goes body-head with a combo. Aswell moves in and lands a flurry. They trade in the pocket and both men land during an exchange. A couple solid rights land for Aswell as Riley forces the issue. Riley lands to the body, then a left hook to the head shortly thereafter. They continue to exchange but Riley puts his stamp on the round with one more solid right.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Round 3
Riley sticks his jab. Aswell attacks with a combination but Riley moves out of danger. Aswell gets in on a body lock against the fence. Aswell with short punches to the body as the Brit defends. Aswell switches to a single leg. Riley is defending well with his back to the cage. Aswell lets it go and they’re back at range. Aswell closes the distance behind punches but can’t maintain the clinch for long. A crisp right lands for Riley. Riley lands a jab to the body and a right hook to the head. The same combination lands a few seconds later for Riley. A right to the body lands with impact for Riley. Aswell grabs a front head lock and snaps Riley down. Riley is able to escape in short order and rips the body. Riley tags Aswell during an exchange. Aswell is undeterred and he lands some big shots of his own before clinching. He pushes Riley into the fence. Riley reverses and lands a flurry on the break. Riley follows a front kick with a right hand-left hook combo. Riley with another right to the body. Aswell is running out of time. Riley avoids a spinning attack from Aswell. Aswell fires a right hook. Riley lands once more before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Riley (30-27 Riley)
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Riley (30-27 Riley)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Riley (30-27 Riley)
The Official Result
Luke Riley def. Michael Aswell via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Luke Riley confidently, noting he dealt with adversity in his last fight (taken down four times but stayed composed and finished). He believes Luke is a much cleaner and faster striker, and expects him to win, calling it a showcase fight.
Big Brady picks Luke Riley, noting that Riley hits much harder and has more finishing upside than Michael Aswell. He points out that Aswell lands high volume but lacks power, and that his opponents often have bigger moments. He thinks Riley will have the bigger moments and win a damage-based decision, possibly with a knockdown. He also notes that Riley is the hometown favorite and the UFC is building him up.
Cody picks Riley but is not overly confident, noting Aswell's volume and durability. He thinks Riley's power and fan support will edge him a decision.
Connor picks Riley but is hesitant because he sees Aswell as a live dog. He notes that Aswell is a more principled striker and could win minutes, and Riley is volatile and can be dropped. However, Connor believes Riley has the dynamism to turn fights around, while Aswell lacks that ability. He compares Aswell to Garrett Armfield, who looks good in losses but cannot finish or change momentum.
Daniel thinks Riley is the more powerful guy with bigger moments, but Aswell has more volume. He expects a close decision win for Riley, noting the crowd factor in London. He's not fully confident because Aswell is tough and can hang in there.
Daniel Vreeland picks Luke Riley but expects a close fight. He thinks Riley is more athletic and hits harder, but Aswell is technically sound and will make it competitive. He predicts Riley wins a close decision rather than a knockout.
James picks Luke Riley but is hesitant, noting that Riley's style relies on landing a big shot and he can be outworked. He thinks Michael Aswell will have volume and durability, but Riley's power and crowd support in London could sway the judges. He mentions a bias towards Aswell but ultimately goes with Riley via decision.
The host picks Luke Riley by decision but is hesitant. He acknowledges Aswell's durability and consistent output, and notes that Riley is hittable. He expects a competitive fight where Riley's effective damage and hometown crowd give him the edge on the scorecards. He advises against betting Riley at -300.
Paul believes Riley's power and home crowd advantage will overcome Aswell's volume. He expects Riley to land the bigger shots and win a decision or late finish.
The MMA Guru picks Luke Riley to win by TKO, possibly via body shots in round two. He notes Riley has fast hands, power, and good recovery, while Aswell is slower and lacks finishing ability. He expects Riley to pressure, land body shots, and finish as Aswell fades. He also mentions Riley's momentum from a performance bonus in his debut.
Zane picks Riley because he believes Riley has better athleticism and can weather Aswell's early pressure, then find technical answers as the fight goes on. He cites Riley's ability to turn fights around, as seen against Bogdan Grad, whereas Aswell tends to fade and cannot change momentum when behind. Zane acknowledges Aswell's technical striking but sees his athletic limitations and stamina issues as decisive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogdan Grad | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 17 of 24 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Luke Riley | 1 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 20 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bogdan Grad | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 16 of 20 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Luke Riley | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Bogdan Grad | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Luke Riley | 1 | 11 of 16 | 68% | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogdan Grad | 7 of 13 | 53% | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 |
| Luke Riley | 14 of 23 | 60% | 11 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bogdan Grad | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 |
| Luke Riley | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Bogdan Grad | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Luke Riley | 11 of 16 | 68% | 10 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 11 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Riley (-275); Grad (+225)
Round 1
At long last, the prelims come to a head with a featherweight clash of neophytes with the promotion. Relatively speaking, the UFC veteran Grad (15-3, 1-1 UFC) with two appearances and a grainy Fight Finder photo—we will work on that—has finished 80% of his wins inside the distance. He meets surging Liverpudlian Riley (11-0, 0-0 UFC), an unbeaten teammate of potential upcoming title challenger Paddy Pimblett. Referee Marc Goddard cracks his knuckles ahead of this pairing, one that kicks off as the athletes opt to touch ‘em up.
Grad rushes right after Riley to start the round, spinning his way in but not committing to anything. As Riley circles away, Grad chases him with a spinning wheel kick that misses the mark. Riley strafes to the side, and he stops as Grad charges him to get hold of a single. Riley grabs the fence to stay on his feet, and Grad pulls him away from it to ground him in the open cage away from the wall. It is a bit of stalemate once they hit the ground, with Riley acquitting himself well on the mat not taking much fire.
Riley eventually works to his feet, and Grad is on him like a cheap suit. Grad wraps up Riley from behind and seeks a mat return, but the Liverpool native scrapes Grad off his back and turns it to the wall. Grad rips punches to the body, and Riley responds with a few knees. Grad slashes with an elbow that he uses to commit to a single, and he drags the undefeated man to the floor. Grad lets Riley back up so he can get off another standing elbow. When Rile takes a second to reset, Grad bull-rushes him hunting for a single. Grad switches from one leg to the other in pursuit of the takedown, and Riley checks his oil and is dragged to his seat. “The Unleashed” unleashes a flurry of swinging punches with Riley on his seat, only stopping when the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Grad
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Grad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Grad
Round 2
Grad offers a fist bump and then follows with a head kick. They both wing hooks at one another, and they miss the mark wildly.
Riley winds up and blasts Grad with a left hand that sends him cinematically twirling down to the mat in a heap. Riley leaps on top of the grounded man and starts battering him with his fists, and he knocks Grad in and out of consciousness as he bludgeons the Austrian.
As Grad’s lights go out, Goddard jumps in to halt the fight. Grad tries to get up, but he cannot stand on his own power and Goddard saves him from crashing and burning. What a comeback for the still-undefeated man from Liverpool, with his team including the aforementioned Pimblett going bonkers in his corner for his triumphant UFC debut—by knockout, as is his custom.
The Official Result
Luke Riley def. Bogdan Grad R2 0:30 via KO (Punches)
Angelo leans Luke Riley over Bogdan Grad, citing Riley's speed and cleaner striking. He notes Grad has a wrestling advantage but Riley has shown good takedown defense in every fight. Angelo warns that Cage Warriors prospects can be overhyped, so he's cautious but picks Riley due to speed being the biggest factor.
Big Brady picks Luke Riley by third-round knockout, impressed by his power and striking. He notes Grad's hittability and questionable chin, and expects Riley to find the chin as Grad slows down. He acknowledges Grad's grappling path but doesn't think he'll fight smart.
Cody picks Luke Riley, believing his volume and cardio will overwhelm Grad. He notes that Grad has poor takedown defense and tends to lose position. Cody thinks Riley can work his way back into the fight if taken down and finish via knockout.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Riley. He notes that Riley is speedy, crafty, and scrappy, and if Grad shows any weakness on the feet or fails to get takedowns, Riley will build a brutal assault. He mentions Riley's age (26) and potential to develop physicality. He also notes that Riley got hurt in a previous fight but showed inexperience.
Riley is a nasty striker with good takedown defense, but the odds are too wide. Grad has grappling opportunities and could win by submission or decision. Riley by TKO is the prediction, but a sprinkle on Grad is considered.
Paul leans towards Luke Riley but is tempted by Bogdan Grad as an underdog. He notes Riley's all-action style and gas tank, but acknowledges Grad's wrestling could be a problem. Paul ultimately sides with Riley due to his volume and finishing ability.
The MMA Guru picks Luke Riley over Bogdan Grad, believing Riley's size and striking will be too much. He notes Grad's struggles in the clinch against Naimov. He expects Riley to rip body shots and finish by TKO in the second or third round, though he acknowledges Grad is dangerous early.
Zane picks Riley but acknowledges it's a fight he might lose. He notes that Grad is a high-motor, experienced fighter who can test Riley physically. He thinks Riley is faster, more precise, and smarter on the feet, and that Grad is slow and awkward with bad shot selection. He worries about Riley's physicality and takedown defense but believes Riley can fight his way back if not finished early.
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo leans Luke Riley over Bogdan Grad, citing Riley's speed and cleaner striking. He notes Grad has a wrestling advantage but Riley has shown good takedown defense in every fight. Angelo warns that Cage Warriors prospects can be overhyped, so he's cautious but picks Riley due to speed being the biggest factor.
Big Brady picks Luke Riley by third-round knockout, impressed by his power and striking. He notes Grad's hittability and questionable chin, and expects Riley to find the chin as Grad slows down. He acknowledges Grad's grappling path but doesn't think he'll fight smart.
Cody picks Luke Riley, believing his volume and cardio will overwhelm Grad. He notes that Grad has poor takedown defense and tends to lose position. Cody thinks Riley can work his way back into the fight if taken down and finish via knockout.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Riley. He notes that Riley is speedy, crafty, and scrappy, and if Grad shows any weakness on the feet or fails to get takedowns, Riley will build a brutal assault. He mentions Riley's age (26) and potential to develop physicality. He also notes that Riley got hurt in a previous fight but showed inexperience.
Riley is a nasty striker with good takedown defense, but the odds are too wide. Grad has grappling opportunities and could win by submission or decision. Riley by TKO is the prediction, but a sprinkle on Grad is considered.
Paul leans towards Luke Riley but is tempted by Bogdan Grad as an underdog. He notes Riley's all-action style and gas tank, but acknowledges Grad's wrestling could be a problem. Paul ultimately sides with Riley due to his volume and finishing ability.
The MMA Guru picks Luke Riley over Bogdan Grad, believing Riley's size and striking will be too much. He notes Grad's struggles in the clinch against Naimov. He expects Riley to rip body shots and finish by TKO in the second or third round, though he acknowledges Grad is dangerous early.
Zane picks Riley but acknowledges it's a fight he might lose. He notes that Grad is a high-motor, experienced fighter who can test Riley physically. He thinks Riley is faster, more precise, and smarter on the feet, and that Grad is slow and awkward with bad shot selection. He worries about Riley's physicality and takedown defense but believes Riley can fight his way back if not finished early.
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