UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Nov 22, 2025 · Featherweight · Completed
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Age 30
Height 5' 8"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 26
Height 5' 9"
Reach 69"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Bogdan Grad
4.06 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
5.06 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
4.22 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Luke Riley
5.56 SLpM
57.0% Str. Acc.
3.32 SApM
64.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
37.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Bogdan Grad - Fight History
LOSS vs Luke Riley
KO R2 0:30 · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Nov 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bogdan Grad 0 7 of 13 53% 17 of 24 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:55
Luke Riley 1 14 of 23 60% 20 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bogdan Grad 0 6 of 9 66% 16 of 20 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:55
Luke Riley 0 3 of 7 42% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bogdan Grad 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luke Riley 1 11 of 16 68% 12 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bogdan Grad 7 of 13 53% 6 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 2 of 2 4 of 6
Luke Riley 14 of 23 60% 11 of 19 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 11 1 of 1 9 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bogdan Grad 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 6
Luke Riley 3 of 7 42% 1 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Bogdan Grad 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luke Riley 11 of 16 68% 10 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 11
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Angelo leans Luke Riley over Bogdan Grad, citing Riley's speed and cleaner striking. He notes Grad has a wrestling advantage but Riley has shown good takedown defense in every fight. Angelo warns that Cage Warriors prospects can be overhyped, so he's cautious but picks Riley due to speed being the biggest factor.

"I'm going to lean Luke. He's just faster, cleaner striker."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Big Brady picks Luke Riley by third-round knockout, impressed by his power and striking. He notes Grad's hittability and questionable chin, and expects Riley to find the chin as Grad slows down. He acknowledges Grad's grappling path but doesn't think he'll fight smart.

third round knockout
"Give me Luke Riley to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Cody picks Luke Riley, believing his volume and cardio will overwhelm Grad. He notes that Grad has poor takedown defense and tends to lose position. Cody thinks Riley can work his way back into the fight if taken down and finish via knockout.

"Riley for me. Riley by knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Luke Riley

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Riley. He notes that Riley is speedy, crafty, and scrappy, and if Grad shows any weakness on the feet or fails to get takedowns, Riley will build a brutal assault. He mentions Riley's age (26) and potential to develop physicality. He also notes that Riley got hurt in a previous fight but showed inexperience.

"I'm with you. I pretty much agree across the board."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Riley is a nasty striker with good takedown defense, but the odds are too wide. Grad has grappling opportunities and could win by submission or decision. Riley by TKO is the prediction, but a sprinkle on Grad is considered.

sprinkle on Grad at +210
"I'll go uh Riley by TKO, but if I'm putting my money anywhere, it would be on the Grod side of things."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Paul leans towards Luke Riley but is tempted by Bogdan Grad as an underdog. He notes Riley's all-action style and gas tank, but acknowledges Grad's wrestling could be a problem. Paul ultimately sides with Riley due to his volume and finishing ability.

"I'm so tempted to take Bogdan grad, but that's one of the underdogs this week that I'm kind of on the fence about."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

The MMA Guru picks Luke Riley over Bogdan Grad, believing Riley's size and striking will be too much. He notes Grad's struggles in the clinch against Naimov. He expects Riley to rip body shots and finish by TKO in the second or third round, though he acknowledges Grad is dangerous early.

second or third-round TKO
"I'm going to go with Luke Riley getting this one done by third-round TKO, late in the second-round TKO, maybe."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Luke Riley

Zane picks Riley but acknowledges it's a fight he might lose. He notes that Grad is a high-motor, experienced fighter who can test Riley physically. He thinks Riley is faster, more precise, and smarter on the feet, and that Grad is slow and awkward with bad shot selection. He worries about Riley's physicality and takedown defense but believes Riley can fight his way back if not finished early.

Odds: Riley opened -150, now -250; Grad opened +130, now +210. Zane comments that any wider than that is probably too bad.
"I think I'll pick him here because I do really think Rod is like a, can you be in the UFC level of tests? And I think Riley is capable of passing that and being crafty and creative enough."
LOSS vs Muhammad Naimov
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Jun 21, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muhammad Naimov 0 18 of 54 33% 70 of 119 1 of 3 33% 1 0 2:53
Bogdan Grad 0 31 of 64 48% 49 of 88 3 of 10 30% 0 0 5:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 10 of 22 45% 24 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:23
Bogdan Grad 0 15 of 30 50% 23 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:04
2 Muhammad Naimov 0 6 of 21 28% 12 of 29 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Bogdan Grad 0 10 of 21 47% 15 of 27 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:01
3 Muhammad Naimov 0 2 of 11 18% 34 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:30
Bogdan Grad 0 6 of 13 46% 11 of 22 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muhammad Naimov 18 of 54 33% 11 of 45 3 of 3 4 of 6 16 of 50 2 of 4 0 of 0
Bogdan Grad 31 of 64 48% 7 of 30 14 of 19 10 of 15 18 of 46 13 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muhammad Naimov 10 of 22 45% 6 of 17 1 of 1 3 of 4 9 of 19 1 of 3 0 of 0
Bogdan Grad 15 of 30 50% 3 of 12 6 of 9 6 of 9 5 of 18 10 of 12 0 of 0
2 Muhammad Naimov 6 of 21 28% 3 of 17 2 of 2 1 of 2 5 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bogdan Grad 10 of 21 47% 3 of 11 4 of 6 3 of 4 10 of 19 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Muhammad Naimov 2 of 11 18% 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bogdan Grad 6 of 13 46% 1 of 7 4 of 4 1 of 2 3 of 9 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Angelo picks Muhammad Naimov, but with reservations. He thinks Naimov is slightly better everywhere and will win a close decision, but notes that Naimov doesn't chase finishes and may coast. He acknowledges Bogdan's finishing ability and the risk of a finish if Bogdan's cardio holds. He fades Naimov for fantasy due to low scoring potential.

Mentions Bogdan Grad at $7,400 as a good price if he has cardio; predicts decision.
"I think Naimov wins this fight. I think Naimov wins a close fight just like his last one."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Big Brady picks Muhammad Naimov, citing his power as a key factor. He notes that Bogdan Grad absorbs a high volume of strikes (8 per minute) and that Naimov has knockout power, having slept Jamie Mullarkey and hurt others. Brady thinks Naimov is more durable and has takedown defense to keep the fight standing. He predicts Naimov wins by first-round knockout, though he acknowledges Grad has more heart.

first round knockout
"I like Naimov to win. I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Connor picks Naimov, agreeing that Naimov's athleticism and strength will overwhelm Grad, who is not strong in tie-ups and relies on outlasting opponents. He notes that Naimov's mistakes and over-aggression won't be punished by Grad, who lacks the athleticism to capitalize. He believes Naimov will be able to impose his will and win the fight.

"I think he can beat Bogdan Grad. Yeah. That's not a lot of deafness to Bogdan Grad's name, is there? It's not an athleticism that's going to take over in situations."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bogdan Grad

The host doesn't understand the love for Naimov outside of power punching. He thinks if Naimov can't get Grad out early, Grad will push a pace and pressure that Naimov can't keep up with, leading to a submission in the second or third round.

"I never understand the big love on Naimov outside of the power punching that he brings to the table. But if he can't get Grad out of there early, I'm expecting Grad to push a pace and pressure that Naimov …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Naimov, criticizing Bogdan Grad's lackluster performances. He notes Naimov's power and ability to manhandle opponents, and despite a loss to Felipe Lima, he sees Naimov as the better fighter. He predicts a dominant decision or first-round finish.

Naimov wins by decision or first-round finish
"I'm going to go with Muhammad Nimov here. I think he's still good. He's still very good."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Zane picks Naimov, citing his superior athleticism and physicality compared to Grad. He notes that Grad is a pace fighter who relies on accumulation, but lacks strength in tie-ups and is foot-slow. Naimov, despite being reckless, is strong and powerful in the clinch and will maul Grad. He draws a parallel to Rębecki vs Orolbai, where the more brutish fighter won.

"I got to pick Naimov and that, you know, for defining it on the same characteristics, you got to take the same kind of winner. Yep. Agreed."
KO R2 4:22 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Feb 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bogdan Grad 0 46 of 66 69% 59 of 86 3 of 8 37% 0 0 4:18
Lucas Alexander 0 34 of 52 65% 47 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bogdan Grad 0 5 of 9 55% 13 of 20 2 of 7 28% 0 0 1:17
Lucas Alexander 0 15 of 23 65% 28 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:13
2 Bogdan Grad 0 41 of 57 71% 46 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:01
Lucas Alexander 0 19 of 29 65% 19 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bogdan Grad 46 of 66 69% 42 of 60 1 of 2 3 of 4 9 of 18 3 of 4 34 of 44
Lucas Alexander 34 of 52 65% 19 of 37 7 of 7 8 of 8 29 of 45 3 of 4 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bogdan Grad 5 of 9 55% 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 1 4 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lucas Alexander 15 of 23 65% 10 of 18 1 of 1 4 of 4 11 of 17 2 of 3 2 of 3
2 Bogdan Grad 41 of 57 71% 37 of 52 1 of 2 3 of 3 5 of 10 2 of 3 34 of 44
Lucas Alexander 19 of 29 65% 9 of 19 6 of 6 4 of 4 18 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Bogdan Grad

Angelo picks Bogdan Grad because of his well-rounded skills, methodical approach, and high finishing rate (11 stoppages in 14 wins). He notes that Lucas Alexander is dangerous but coming off a KO loss to a low-level opponent. He believes Grad's control and pace will be mistaken for inability to finish, but Grad finds finishes without being reckless.

"I am picking Bogden grad here Lucas Alexander is somebody who can be finished I do think Lucas is good though and Lucas can be dangerous I'm going Bogden"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Big Brady likes Lucas Alexander's striking and thinks he trains with good guys. He notes Alexander has been submitted three times and has questionable takedown defense, but believes Alexander will piece up Bogdan Grad across three rounds. Grad is tough and has heart but is a walking punching bag. Brady would have liked Alexander more at +170 but thinks pick 'em is about accurate.

"I'm leaning Alexander here I don't think grad's gonna have a ton of success with the wrestling maybe he can mix in a takedown here or there but I do think it's going to be Alexander just pretty much piecing …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Alexander's Muay Thai striking and ability to fight from both stances will allow him to pick apart Grad's erratic style. Grad's explosivity and grappling may cause early trouble, but Alexander's technical striking and work off the back foot should secure a decision win.

"Alexander fighting from both stances and well off of his back foot will do a good enough job in terms of striking straight down the pipe against the more erratic style of Grad and that will lead to him picking …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Bogdan Grad

The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Grad, believing he is good enough on the feet to hang with Lucas Alexander and will have a takedown threat advantage. He notes Alexander is coming off a first-round TKO loss and has been out for over a year. He thinks Grad can get the job done early.

"I'm actually going to go with Bogdan grad... I think the takedown threat's going to be there and I think it's in advantage of him"
Luke Riley - Fight History
SCHED vs Kai Kamaka III
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luke Riley 0 100 of 177 56% 113 of 192 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Aswell 0 61 of 180 33% 107 of 233 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luke Riley 0 33 of 56 58% 45 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Aswell 0 20 of 59 33% 54 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:05
2 Luke Riley 0 35 of 70 50% 35 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Aswell 0 30 of 81 37% 36 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
3 Luke Riley 0 32 of 51 62% 33 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Aswell 0 11 of 40 27% 17 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luke Riley 100 of 177 56% 65 of 134 31 of 36 4 of 7 90 of 166 10 of 11 0 of 0
Michael Aswell 61 of 180 33% 48 of 158 13 of 21 0 of 1 58 of 169 3 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luke Riley 33 of 56 58% 22 of 42 10 of 11 1 of 3 30 of 53 3 of 3 0 of 0
Michael Aswell 20 of 59 33% 17 of 52 3 of 6 0 of 1 18 of 53 2 of 6 0 of 0
2 Luke Riley 35 of 70 50% 22 of 55 10 of 11 3 of 4 34 of 69 1 of 1 0 of 0
Michael Aswell 30 of 81 37% 22 of 69 8 of 12 0 of 0 29 of 77 1 of 4 0 of 0
3 Luke Riley 32 of 51 62% 21 of 37 11 of 14 0 of 0 26 of 44 6 of 7 0 of 0
Michael Aswell 11 of 40 27% 9 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 0 11 of 39 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michael Aswell vs. Luke Riley
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Riley (-300); Aswell (+250)

Round 1
Jason Herzog is the referee. Aswell hurries to the center of the cage. Riley pumps out his jab. Riley rips the body but Aswell counters with a hard right. Aswell closes the distance behind a flurry of punches. Now in the clinch, Aswell lands short shots to the body. Aswell separates and they’re back at range. Aswell forces the clinch once again, and he goes back to landing short shots in close. Aswell lands a right on the break. Aswell lands a left hook in an exchange. They’re trading now, and both men land. Aswell follows a 1-2 into the clinch. They disengage and a right connects for Aswell. Riley lands a 1-2 to put Aswell on his heels. Another combination lands for Riley, but Aswell rolls with it. Aswell with a front kick. Riley with a left hook followed by a right hand. Another right lands for Riley, who seems to be getting comfortable. Riley catches Aswell with another right and then he tags his foe with a left hook. Aswell with a jab and then just misses a huge right. Aswell follows a low kick with a jab to the body. Riley pressures up until the horn, landing another right in the process.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Riley

Round 2
Riley kicks the lead leg. Riley lands a jab and avoids an Aswell combination. A laser right snaps Aswell’s head back. The Brit jabs the body, lands a right and then avoids Aswell’s counter. Another jab to the body for Riley, who follows with a combination. Aswell grabs a body lock after Riley slips to the floor. He’s attached to Riley’s back, landing knees to the thighs. They separate and are back at range. Aswell pressures and lands a jab. Riley continues to target the body with a jab. Riley has the more crisp strikes, and he seems to be landing more effectively in exchanges. A lead hook lands for Riley and then he goes body-head with a combo. Aswell moves in and lands a flurry. They trade in the pocket and both men land during an exchange. A couple solid rights land for Aswell as Riley forces the issue. Riley lands to the body, then a left hook to the head shortly thereafter. They continue to exchange but Riley puts his stamp on the round with one more solid right.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Riley

Round 3
Riley sticks his jab. Aswell attacks with a combination but Riley moves out of danger. Aswell gets in on a body lock against the fence. Aswell with short punches to the body as the Brit defends. Aswell switches to a single leg. Riley is defending well with his back to the cage. Aswell lets it go and they’re back at range. Aswell closes the distance behind punches but can’t maintain the clinch for long. A crisp right lands for Riley. Riley lands a jab to the body and a right hook to the head. The same combination lands a few seconds later for Riley. A right to the body lands with impact for Riley. Aswell grabs a front head lock and snaps Riley down. Riley is able to escape in short order and rips the body. Riley tags Aswell during an exchange. Aswell is undeterred and he lands some big shots of his own before clinching. He pushes Riley into the fence. Riley reverses and lands a flurry on the break. Riley follows a front kick with a right hand-left hook combo. Riley with another right to the body. Aswell is running out of time. Riley avoids a spinning attack from Aswell. Aswell fires a right hook. Riley lands once more before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Riley (30-27 Riley)
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Riley (30-27 Riley)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Riley (30-27 Riley)

The Official Result
Luke Riley def. Michael Aswell via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Angelo picks Luke Riley confidently, noting he dealt with adversity in his last fight (taken down four times but stayed composed and finished). He believes Luke is a much cleaner and faster striker, and expects him to win, calling it a showcase fight.

"I'm pretty confident in Luke here. And this is a co-main event for a reason. This is supposed to be a showcase fight. and I imagine it will for Luke."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Big Brady picks Luke Riley, noting that Riley hits much harder and has more finishing upside than Michael Aswell. He points out that Aswell lands high volume but lacks power, and that his opponents often have bigger moments. He thinks Riley will have the bigger moments and win a damage-based decision, possibly with a knockdown. He also notes that Riley is the hometown favorite and the UFC is building him up.

Luke Riley by decision
"Give me Riley to win this fight. I think it's by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Cody picks Riley but is not overly confident, noting Aswell's volume and durability. He thinks Riley's power and fan support will edge him a decision.

"I took Lucy as well, but I don't feel, you know, overly confident about it."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Connor picks Riley but is hesitant because he sees Aswell as a live dog. He notes that Aswell is a more principled striker and could win minutes, and Riley is volatile and can be dropped. However, Connor believes Riley has the dynamism to turn fights around, while Aswell lacks that ability. He compares Aswell to Garrett Armfield, who looks good in losses but cannot finish or change momentum.

Riley opened at -175, currently -235; Aswell opened at +150, currently +200.
"I look at Aswell and I think because of the volatility inherent to Luke Riley, he should be considered a real live dog. But a dog nonetheless."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Daniel thinks Riley is the more powerful guy with bigger moments, but Aswell has more volume. He expects a close decision win for Riley, noting the crowd factor in London. He's not fully confident because Aswell is tough and can hang in there.

"I think that Asuel can hold his own and make it competitive, but probably lose like a hard-fought decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Daniel Vreeland picks Luke Riley but expects a close fight. He thinks Riley is more athletic and hits harder, but Aswell is technically sound and will make it competitive. He predicts Riley wins a close decision rather than a knockout.

"I think most likely Luke Riley lands the harder shots and scrapes by a close decision win."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Luke Riley

James picks Luke Riley but is hesitant, noting that Riley's style relies on landing a big shot and he can be outworked. He thinks Michael Aswell will have volume and durability, but Riley's power and crowd support in London could sway the judges. He mentions a bias towards Aswell but ultimately goes with Riley via decision.

Luke Riley via decision, over 2.5 rounds
"I'm going to pick Luke Riley in this fight. I think Luke Riley via a decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Luke Riley

The host picks Luke Riley by decision but is hesitant. He acknowledges Aswell's durability and consistent output, and notes that Riley is hittable. He expects a competitive fight where Riley's effective damage and hometown crowd give him the edge on the scorecards. He advises against betting Riley at -300.

"Final prediction for that is going to be Luke Riley by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Paul believes Riley's power and home crowd advantage will overcome Aswell's volume. He expects Riley to land the bigger shots and win a decision or late finish.

"Riley's the pick for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Luke Riley

The MMA Guru picks Luke Riley to win by TKO, possibly via body shots in round two. He notes Riley has fast hands, power, and good recovery, while Aswell is slower and lacks finishing ability. He expects Riley to pressure, land body shots, and finish as Aswell fades. He also mentions Riley's momentum from a performance bonus in his debut.

TKO win, possibly body shot finish in round two
"I think Luke Riley will do well here... I could see a round two Luke Riley finish with body shots on Michael Jr."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Zane picks Riley because he believes Riley has better athleticism and can weather Aswell's early pressure, then find technical answers as the fight goes on. He cites Riley's ability to turn fights around, as seen against Bogdan Grad, whereas Aswell tends to fade and cannot change momentum when behind. Zane acknowledges Aswell's technical striking but sees his athletic limitations and stamina issues as decisive.

Riley opened at -175, currently -235; Aswell opened at +150, currently +200.
"I think for as well, the limitations for him become much more stark... Luke Riley comes out around later with the grad getting a little bit slower, a little bit more predictable, knows what to expect and just ice his …"
WIN vs Bogdan Grad
KO R2 0:30 · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Nov 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bogdan Grad 0 7 of 13 53% 17 of 24 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:55
Luke Riley 1 14 of 23 60% 20 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bogdan Grad 0 6 of 9 66% 16 of 20 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:55
Luke Riley 0 3 of 7 42% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bogdan Grad 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luke Riley 1 11 of 16 68% 12 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bogdan Grad 7 of 13 53% 6 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 2 of 2 4 of 6
Luke Riley 14 of 23 60% 11 of 19 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 11 1 of 1 9 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bogdan Grad 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 6
Luke Riley 3 of 7 42% 1 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Bogdan Grad 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luke Riley 11 of 16 68% 10 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 11
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Angelo leans Luke Riley over Bogdan Grad, citing Riley's speed and cleaner striking. He notes Grad has a wrestling advantage but Riley has shown good takedown defense in every fight. Angelo warns that Cage Warriors prospects can be overhyped, so he's cautious but picks Riley due to speed being the biggest factor.

"I'm going to lean Luke. He's just faster, cleaner striker."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Big Brady picks Luke Riley by third-round knockout, impressed by his power and striking. He notes Grad's hittability and questionable chin, and expects Riley to find the chin as Grad slows down. He acknowledges Grad's grappling path but doesn't think he'll fight smart.

third round knockout
"Give me Luke Riley to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Cody picks Luke Riley, believing his volume and cardio will overwhelm Grad. He notes that Grad has poor takedown defense and tends to lose position. Cody thinks Riley can work his way back into the fight if taken down and finish via knockout.

"Riley for me. Riley by knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Luke Riley

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Riley. He notes that Riley is speedy, crafty, and scrappy, and if Grad shows any weakness on the feet or fails to get takedowns, Riley will build a brutal assault. He mentions Riley's age (26) and potential to develop physicality. He also notes that Riley got hurt in a previous fight but showed inexperience.

"I'm with you. I pretty much agree across the board."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Riley is a nasty striker with good takedown defense, but the odds are too wide. Grad has grappling opportunities and could win by submission or decision. Riley by TKO is the prediction, but a sprinkle on Grad is considered.

sprinkle on Grad at +210
"I'll go uh Riley by TKO, but if I'm putting my money anywhere, it would be on the Grod side of things."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Paul leans towards Luke Riley but is tempted by Bogdan Grad as an underdog. He notes Riley's all-action style and gas tank, but acknowledges Grad's wrestling could be a problem. Paul ultimately sides with Riley due to his volume and finishing ability.

"I'm so tempted to take Bogdan grad, but that's one of the underdogs this week that I'm kind of on the fence about."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

The MMA Guru picks Luke Riley over Bogdan Grad, believing Riley's size and striking will be too much. He notes Grad's struggles in the clinch against Naimov. He expects Riley to rip body shots and finish by TKO in the second or third round, though he acknowledges Grad is dangerous early.

second or third-round TKO
"I'm going to go with Luke Riley getting this one done by third-round TKO, late in the second-round TKO, maybe."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Luke Riley

Zane picks Riley but acknowledges it's a fight he might lose. He notes that Grad is a high-motor, experienced fighter who can test Riley physically. He thinks Riley is faster, more precise, and smarter on the feet, and that Grad is slow and awkward with bad shot selection. He worries about Riley's physicality and takedown defense but believes Riley can fight his way back if not finished early.

Odds: Riley opened -150, now -250; Grad opened +130, now +210. Zane comments that any wider than that is probably too bad.
"I think I'll pick him here because I do really think Rod is like a, can you be in the UFC level of tests? And I think Riley is capable of passing that and being crafty and creative enough."
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Angelo leans Luke Riley over Bogdan Grad, citing Riley's speed and cleaner striking. He notes Grad has a wrestling advantage but Riley has shown good takedown defense in every fight. Angelo warns that Cage Warriors prospects can be overhyped, so he's cautious but picks Riley due to speed being the biggest factor.

"I'm going to lean Luke. He's just faster, cleaner striker."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Big Brady picks Luke Riley by third-round knockout, impressed by his power and striking. He notes Grad's hittability and questionable chin, and expects Riley to find the chin as Grad slows down. He acknowledges Grad's grappling path but doesn't think he'll fight smart.

third round knockout
"Give me Luke Riley to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Cody picks Luke Riley, believing his volume and cardio will overwhelm Grad. He notes that Grad has poor takedown defense and tends to lose position. Cody thinks Riley can work his way back into the fight if taken down and finish via knockout.

"Riley for me. Riley by knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Luke Riley

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Riley. He notes that Riley is speedy, crafty, and scrappy, and if Grad shows any weakness on the feet or fails to get takedowns, Riley will build a brutal assault. He mentions Riley's age (26) and potential to develop physicality. He also notes that Riley got hurt in a previous fight but showed inexperience.

"I'm with you. I pretty much agree across the board."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Riley is a nasty striker with good takedown defense, but the odds are too wide. Grad has grappling opportunities and could win by submission or decision. Riley by TKO is the prediction, but a sprinkle on Grad is considered.

sprinkle on Grad at +210
"I'll go uh Riley by TKO, but if I'm putting my money anywhere, it would be on the Grod side of things."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Paul leans towards Luke Riley but is tempted by Bogdan Grad as an underdog. He notes Riley's all-action style and gas tank, but acknowledges Grad's wrestling could be a problem. Paul ultimately sides with Riley due to his volume and finishing ability.

"I'm so tempted to take Bogdan grad, but that's one of the underdogs this week that I'm kind of on the fence about."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

The MMA Guru picks Luke Riley over Bogdan Grad, believing Riley's size and striking will be too much. He notes Grad's struggles in the clinch against Naimov. He expects Riley to rip body shots and finish by TKO in the second or third round, though he acknowledges Grad is dangerous early.

second or third-round TKO
"I'm going to go with Luke Riley getting this one done by third-round TKO, late in the second-round TKO, maybe."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Luke Riley

Zane picks Riley but acknowledges it's a fight he might lose. He notes that Grad is a high-motor, experienced fighter who can test Riley physically. He thinks Riley is faster, more precise, and smarter on the feet, and that Grad is slow and awkward with bad shot selection. He worries about Riley's physicality and takedown defense but believes Riley can fight his way back if not finished early.

Odds: Riley opened -150, now -250; Grad opened +130, now +210. Zane comments that any wider than that is probably too bad.
"I think I'll pick him here because I do really think Rod is like a, can you be in the UFC level of tests? And I think Riley is capable of passing that and being crafty and creative enough."