Career Averages - Alex Perez
Career Averages - Asu Almabayev
Alex Perez - Fight History
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Perez (-140); Mudaerji (+115)
Round 1
The six-fight main card kicks off with Sumudaerji (19-7; 6-4 UFC) looking to put the brakes on a ghastly 0-4 run for Chinese fighters thus far—even if one was an iffy decision—against perennial flyweight contender Perez (26-10; 8-6 UFC). The referee is Mark Craig. Perez is standing orthodox, Sumudaerji southpaw, and the “Tibetan Eagle” towers over the American. There are a couple of awkward-looking collisions at kicking range as both men learn to navigate the distance on the feet, but neither man has landed much of consequence a minute in when Perez drives his foe to the cage. He takes an underhook and punches with the free hand, perhaps looking for a takedown opportunity, but makes no real attempt to do so before Sumudaerji shoves him off. They reset and Perez surges forward with a trio of hard punches that back Sumudaerji off. Half the round gone and it’s still an awkward, somewhat tentative fight, with each fighter taking turns exploding with bursts of offense, but most of the hardest shots are coming from Perez, who is having an increasingly easy time getting inside the taller man’s range and landing to the head. Perez changes levels for a takedown and Sumudaerji sprawls beautifully. With 30 seconds to go, the Tibetan drops for a surprise takedown of his own and is snared in a tight guillotine. Perez adjusts his grip and Sumudaerji is stuck, but in danger of being choked, until the horn.
10-9 Perez.
Round 2
In the first serious exchange of the round, Sumudaerji lands a clean left hand that hurts Perez badly. He gives chase, landing in Perez’s half guard and dropping big shots. Some are blocked, but enough get through cleanly that referee Craig is looking on with new interest. Perez recovers, however, and once he wraps his foe back up in full guard, the action slows enough that Craig stands them up. Seconds later, Sumudaerji reaches out with a left front kick that impacts the cup of Perez, who goes down as if shot with a Taser. Perez motions for a bucket and promptly (and loudly) vomits. UFC color commentator Laura Sanko is nauseated by the sound of Perez retching, and we’re right there with her. Perez appears to recover, but then calls for the bucket once again and hurls. We still don’t know whether this thing is going to resume, but Craig indicates that Sumudaerji is being docked a point. After the prescribed five-minute break for the foul, Perez is still unable to stand, let alone fight, and Craig waves it off. Considering that he had already called the foul a point deduction, that should mean we have a disqualification on the way, but we get a no contest instead because rules don’t mean anything.
The Official Result
Alex Perez vs. Su Mudaerji ends R2 1:45 via No Contest (Inadvertent Groin Strike)
AJ picks Sumudaerji, citing his length as an X-factor and his momentum from recent evolution. He notes Sumudaerji's takedown defense has improved significantly, and his striking at range will cause problems for Perez. AJ thinks Perez will have to resort to wrestling, which won't be easy. He predicts Sumudaerji's technicality will lead to a decision win, outstriking Perez and quieting the grappling flaw narrative.
AJ picks Sumudaerji, citing his southpaw stance, clean boxing, distance management, and improved wrestling defense. He thinks Perez's calf kicks are neutralized by the stance switch, and Perez may have weight-cut issues. AJ expects Sumudaerji to win a decision in China, using his reach and precision to outpoint Perez.
AJ picks Sumudaerji as his underdog lock of the week. He highlights Sumudaerji's length advantage (72-inch reach vs 65.5), improved takedown defense, and distance striking as key factors. He questions Alex Perez's consistency, weight cutting issues, and momentum, noting Perez has only one win since 2021. AJ predicts a decision win for Sumudaerji, citing his technical striking and defensive grappling.
Angelo picks Alex Perez, arguing that Perez's losses are to elite fighters (Figueiredo, Pantoja, etc.) and that he is a very good fighter. He expects Perez to win a decision, though he notes Perez may not score enough for DraftKings.
Angelo picks Alex Perez because he is the better fighter with power and footwork. He notes that Perez has fought a murderer's row and is coming off a knockout win. He thinks the power will be the difference, but he is not betting on the fight.
Angelo picks Alex Perez, believing he is the better overall fighter with more power, better footwork, and higher fight IQ. He acknowledges that Sumudaerji has speed and volume, but thinks Perez's experience against top competition and his striking advantage will be the difference. He considers the odds appropriate.
Big Brady picks Alex Perez by second-round submission, citing Perez's wrestling advantage and Sumudaerji's poor durability and grappling. He notes Sumudaerji's wins are weak and he has been finished six times, while Perez has lost only to elite fighters. He believes Perez will take him down and choke him out, though he acknowledges Perez is a 'ball dropper' who has lost to top competition.
Cody leans Sumudaerji due to Perez's history of injuries, weight misses, and cardio issues. He notes that Perez often fades in later rounds and has pulled out of many fights. Sumudaerji is younger, taller, and fighting in China. Cody believes if Perez doesn't finish early, Sumudaerji can take over. He is waiting for weigh-ins to decide.
Levi picks the underdog Sumudaerji, citing his improved grappling defense and overall game. He criticizes Perez for missing weight, quitting in fights, and being inconsistent. Levi believes Sumudaerji can pick Perez apart and possibly submit him.
Jacob picks Alex Perez because he is the better fighter and Sumudaerji has not faced someone of Perez's level. He notes that Perez has wrestling and striking, while Sumudaerji's wins are against lower-level opponents. He uses a graph analogy to explain that Perez is above Sumudaerji in skill.
Lucrative James leans Alex Perez, citing his elite wrestling which should exploit Sumudaerji's grappling weakness. He notes that Perez can dominate on the ground, while Sumudaerji is a much better striker but Perez can compete there. He worries about Perez's history of mental lapses and submission losses but believes his recent frequent fighting helps his mental game. He predicts a submission win, though he is not confident and may not bet the fight.
The host picks Perez to win inside the distance, citing his aggression, durability, and improved striking. He believes Perez will crowd Sumudaerji's space and mix in takedowns, leading to a finish. He loves the minus 140 line and thinks Perez's confidence is sky-high after knocking out Charles Johnson.
The host loves Alex Perez in this spot, citing his continuous improvement and recent knockout win. He expects Perez to bring an aggressive striking game and possibly take the fight to the mat, finishing Sumudaerji inside the distance via knockout or submission.
Paul is torn but leans Perez skill-wise, noting that when Perez is on, he is a top-10 flyweight. However, he acknowledges Perez's mental lapses, injuries, and weight issues. Paul thinks -133 could be value if Perez shows up, but he is wary of the China factor and Sumudaerji's reach. He is not confident and may wait for weigh-ins.
The Guru picks Perez due to his wrestling advantage. He notes Sumudaerji is a good striker with improved grappling but still vulnerable to submissions. If Perez gets takedowns, he should dominate on the ground. However, he expresses uncertainty about which version of Perez shows up and says the striking is competitive.
The MMA Guru picks Alex Perez to win by knockout. He notes that Sumudaerji needs patient fighters who stand in front of him, but Perez is aggressive with power and offensive wrestling. He believes Perez will pressure and land big shots, knocking out Sumudaerji, who has been hurt before.
The Guru picks Su Mudaerji (Sumudaerji) over Alex Perez, citing Mudaerji's length, patience, and sniping ability. He believes Mudaerji's range control and punishing jabs will neutralize Perez's pressure. He notes Mudaerji's improved wrestling and is surprised he is an underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Perez | 2 | 39 of 75 | 52% | 55 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 8 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Perez | 2 | 39 of 75 | 52% | 55 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 8 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Perez | 39 of 75 | 52% | 27 of 60 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 33 of 67 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 |
| Charles Johnson | 8 of 25 | 32% | 4 of 14 | 3 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Perez | 39 of 75 | 52% | 27 of 60 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 33 of 67 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 |
| Charles Johnson | 8 of 25 | 32% | 4 of 14 | 3 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johnson (-205), Perez (+170)
Round 1
All UFC fights stateside will plug on under the Paramount+ streaming service, so the distinction between early prelims and the “ESPN” or “Fox Sports” prelims is less significant than before. Former UFC Fight Pass maven Ant Evans suggested the breakdown of cards shift to the main card—no change there—the undercard, where the four-fight prelim slot prior to the main card is placed; and any bout before those nine should be considered a prelim. Nevertheless, the action continues in a catchweight affair as the skidding Perez (25-10, 7-6 UFC) failed to make the flyweight limit by two and a half pounds. A quarter of his purse goes to “InnerG” Johnson (18-7, 7-5 UFC), whose unique hairstyle is starting to have a mind of its own. The athletes will be officiated by referee Jason Herzog, and Perez offers his foe an apologetic glove touch that is accepted.
Perez darts straight to the center of the cage, where he tracks Johnson down and parries a body kick to race towards him. Johnson dings him with a right hand and slides out of the way to reset. Perez goes wide on a right hand, and he nearly gets his chin checked with a head kick. Johnson checks a few leg kicks and stays right before Perez, circling on the outside while Perez walks straight towards him. A Perez barrage comes up short, although a second effort does clip Johnson on the chin. Johnson fires back with a high kick, and Perez unloads with a vicious left hand that stuns Johnson and sets him down. Johnson pulls the cage to stand back up, still badly rocked, and he stands in front of Perez as if he wants to bang it out. Perez has no fear, and he drives a few knees into his jaw that hurt him once more. Johnson takes a right hand on the chin that shakes him up and forces him to bounce off the fencing to keep his feet about him, and Perez is all over him.
Perez marches down “InnerG” with impunity, and Johnson is being held up by the cage when Perez blasts him. One more knockdown is registered by Perez, and Johnson drops to his knees to desperately shoot. Perez takes anything Johnson offers and walks through it to tear in to the damaged fighter who has fought back to his feet again.
When Johnson lifts up an anticipatory knee, Perez loads up on a left hand and sends Johnson careening to the canvas for the umpteenth time, and Herzog has seen more than enough and waves things off.
Johnson still gets up on autopilot and runs towards Perez as Perez has walked away to celebrate his handiwork, and he even gets hold of Perez’ leg when Perez is trying to climb the cage wall. Herzog manages to cool Johnson down, who was damaged and in a bad way for much more than a minute. This is a crucial victory for Perez, who had only gotten his hand raised once in his last six outings. It is a bit of a tough break for Perez, because while he won and likely staved off a pink slip, his missing weight makes him eligible for a finish bonus. It takes champion Joshua Van mere moments to post on social media taunting the defeated Johnson, who laughs off any chance at a rematch.
The Official Result
Alex Perez def. Charles Johnson R1 3:16 via TKO (Punch)
Angelo picks Alex Perez despite his four-fight losing streak, arguing the losses are to elite fighters and he was winning against Asu Almabaev before a mistake. He praises Perez's striking, low kicks, and wrestling. He notes Charles Johnson is a friend of the show but believes Perez can pull off the upset. He is very low confidence, rating it 51 out of 100.
Big Brady notes Perez finds ways to lose, often getting finished when he's winning. He expects Perez to win round one but fade as Johnson works into the fight. He predicts Johnson will finish Perez, likely by submission, as Perez has been submitted many times.
Cody picks Charles Johnson, citing Perez's poor cardio and tendency to make mistakes. He notes Johnson's improved takedown defense and striking volume, and believes Johnson will win the later rounds. Cody sees Johnson as a live underdog and expects him to win by decision or late stoppage.
Connor questions whether Alex Perez is actually a good flyweight, noting his record of 1 win in 6 fights over 5 years. He sees Perez as a bully on the front foot who lacks durability and defensive striking. Johnson, on the other hand, is clicking better, finding his timing earlier, and has a persistent, awkward style that can frustrate opponents. Connor believes Johnson can survive Perez's hot start and take over, possibly getting a finish.
Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Johnson to finish Alex Perez. He notes that Perez has lost five of his last six and has questionable heart and fight IQ. Vreeland believes Johnson's slow-starting style matches up well against Perez, who tends to fade. He predicts Johnson will find the chin or neck of Perez for a finish.
James picks Johnson, citing his superior striking, cardio, and durability. He notes Perez often gets finished and that Johnson is more locked into MMA. He predicts a finish, possibly by submission or knockout.
The host picks Perez as an underdog, citing his forward pressure, leg kicks, and gas tank. He believes Perez can dictate the pace and outwork Johnson, who can be gunshy. He notes Perez's recent losses are to high-level competition and sees value at +175. He predicts Perez by decision or knockout.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Johnson's improvements and Perez's bad luck. He notes Johnson's knockout power and volume, and believes Perez's cardio will fail him. Paul likes Johnson on the money line and also considers the knockout prop.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson, citing his win over Joshua Van and his range advantage. He notes that Johnson's uppercut game will be effective against Perez's head-tucking hooks. He predicts a close decision, possibly with Perez having a good third round.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Perez's wrestling control time is often minimal and that he walks into danger. Johnson has a great flow and timing, and his ability to pressure and exhaust opponents is key. Zane also mentions that Johnson knocked out the flyweight champion and has a Bobby Green-like quality. He thinks Johnson can survive Perez's early pressure and win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Perez | 0 | 40 of 98 | 40% | 84 of 143 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 36 of 90 | 40% | 68 of 126 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 1:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Perez | 0 | 18 of 60 | 30% | 40 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 20 of 45 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 | |
| 2 | Alex Perez | 0 | 21 of 37 | 56% | 43 of 60 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 13 of 40 | 32% | 45 of 76 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Alex Perez | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Perez | 40 of 98 | 40% | 14 of 57 | 15 of 23 | 11 of 18 | 32 of 85 | 3 of 7 | 5 of 6 |
| Asu Almabayev | 36 of 90 | 40% | 24 of 76 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 84 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Perez | 18 of 60 | 30% | 2 of 32 | 9 of 16 | 7 of 12 | 18 of 58 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Asu Almabayev | 20 of 45 | 44% | 12 of 37 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Perez | 21 of 37 | 56% | 11 of 24 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 13 of 26 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 6 |
| Asu Almabayev | 13 of 40 | 32% | 9 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alex Perez | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Asu Almabayev | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabayev (-200); Perez (+170)
Round 1
A pair of speedster flyweights grace the cage, with a potential passing of the torch moment possible even though these two athletes are separated by just two years of age. The relative elder statesman, former title challenger Perez (25-9, 7-5 UFC) grew up in the Tachi Palace Fights circuit after the WEC was absorbed by the UFC. His Kazakhstani foe Almabayev (22-3, 5-1 UFC) bounded around Russia and the CIS for his early career, taking fights in noteworthy leagues like Alash Pride, Tech-Krep FC, ACB and M-1 before landing in the big leagues here. Referee Dan Movahedi will keep things on the up-and-up as the prelims keep going, and the fighters elect to touch gloves.
Perez keeps his range early with front kick offerings, using them as range-finders and not to necessarily attack and cause damage. Almabayev waits to score a single low kick, and Perez charges him with fists flying. Almabayev responds with a wheel kick that collides with the guard, and Perez gets his leg kick back. Perez swings like a wild man, and his low kick opens up strikes up top. Almabayev fires back and then shoots down for an extremely low single down on Perez’ hips. Perez defends by putting his back to the wall and hacking at the side of the head with elbows. Movahedi warns him to not smack the Kazakh in the back of the head, and Almabayev spins Perez around but cannot put him down to the floor. Perez escapes, and he resets and rushes Almabayev again with a wide left hook. Perez mixes up his punches to the body and head with his flurries, and he ends a combination with a front kick. Almabayev kicks him in the ribs and just misses a spinning back fist. Perez darts in recklessly, arms wide, and he hurls punches as Almabayev shells up and rebounds off the wall.
Perez kicks and loads up on punches, allowing Almabayev to time knees up the middle for counters. Perez ignores them and fires off hard calf kicks, and he sways back to watch a huge right hand whiz past his face. Almabayev swings hard with his right, and Perez chips away with his kick. Almabayev kicks back, and they trade hooks at the same time. A pair of tiny tornadoes—not of the Tecia Pennington variety—go at it like whirling dervishes or Beyblades, depending on one’s preferred reference. They lay into one another violently, and neither appears to gain the upper hand as the pendulum swings back and forth. Almabayev times a takedown when Perez swings for the fences, tripping away the Californian’s balance and placing him gingerly to the mat. Perez elbows him in the back of the head a few times, and remains elbowing and not settling until the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Round 2
The flyweights clap hands, and Perez is loaded for bear and ready to unload. He proceeds to stalk Almabayev down and let his hands go. Almabayev is more than prepared with his uppercut to counter, although he takes a low kick and a right hand that put him on the floor. Perez dives down with a blistering right hand, and Almabayev shakes it off and bursts back to his feet. Perez sprints at his foe and wraps him up with a body lock to wrest him to the mat. Almabayev once more is able to get up without taking a lot of damage, and he pays Perez back with an uppercut and a right hook. Perez swings for the bleachers back at him, and their heads clack together when letting loose. Almabayev gets off another uppercut, and he reaches Perez at the end of a right hand. Perez practically runs at the retreating Almabayev to hit him back, seemingly possessing the strategy of trying to give Almabayev one back every time Almabayev strikes him. Almabayev spins with a well-timed back kick that pounds into the liver, and Perez does not love this and keeps a stiff upper lip before rushing Almabayev and tackling him to the floor.
Perez establishes himself on top, attacking with punches and elbows when he manages to find an opening. Almabayev elbows him off his back, and several of them bang into the back of Perez’ head, drawing a warning. Almabayev turns to his knees to get up, and Perez wraps him up with a head lock and knees him in the forehead. Almabayev swings his way out of the position and backs off Perez with his blows. Another spinning kick from the Kazakh misses the mark, so he shoots for a single. Perez hops around and puts his back to the wall to stay afloat, and he elbows Almabayev in the dome before letting go. Almabayev drives an uppercut home, and Perez goes for his own single that he uses to bowl Almabayev to the wall. Almabayev counters with a trip takedown, and the back-and-forth round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Round 3
The round kicks off with another spinning wheel kick from Almabayev, which stuns Perez and opens him up to danger. Perez staggers to the side and gathers his thoughts to shoot in for a double.
Almabayev leaps in the air to snatch up a flying guillotine choke, wrapping his legs around the waist and wrenching the grip with all of his might. Perez, who knows his goose is cooked as the choke is vice-like and about to deplete him of his consciousness, has no choice but to tap out while still standing up.
This marks the fifth time that Perez has had to surrender because someone had control of his neck, and it is undoubtedly the biggest win of the career of “Zulfikhar.” On a two-fight win streak, he calls for a title shot and a post-fight bonus.
The Official Result
Asu Almabayev def. Alex Perez R3 0:22 via Submission (Flying Guillotine Choke)
Angelo picks Asu Almabayev over Alex Perez, calling it an easy win. He criticizes Perez's continued employment and describes Almabayev as a flashy striker and dominant grappler with strong pressure and takedowns. Perez's leg kicks and boxing won't work against Almabayev's aggression. Angelo expects a decision win for Almabayev.
Big Brady leans Asu Almabayev by second-round submission, citing Perez's injury history and submission vulnerabilities. He expects Almabayev to get the fight to the ground and submit Perez, who has tapped out five times. He notes Perez's takedown defense but believes Almabayev will find a way.
Cody picks Alex Perez confidently, noting his world-class skills despite injury history. He believes Perez is the better striker and grappler, and that Almabayev is one-dimensional with low volume. Cody thinks Perez can stuff takedowns and outpoint Almabayev, and the plus money is worth the risk.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Almabayev but emphasizing that if Perez is in shape and healthy, Almabayev doesn't have a game to beat him. He notes Perez's injuries and the fact that he gets caught in subs or blasted by bigger punchers, but doesn't get controlled and out-wrestled. He calls it a good booking.
Lucrative James picks Asu Almabayev but with hesitation. He notes Perez's tendency to give up his back and get submitted, and his recent knee surgery. He believes Almabayev's grappling will be the difference, predicting a submission or close decision. He acknowledges Perez could win on the feet early.
Almabayev has a better gas tank and scrambling ability. Perez is coming off a knee injury and layoff. Almabayev's speed, power, and grappling should overwhelm Perez, leading to a decision win.
Paul picks Alex Perez, citing his superior striking and wrestling. He notes that Almabayev relies on takedowns and has poor striking volume. Paul believes Perez can defend takedowns and win on the feet, and the plus money is attractive.
The MMA Guru picks Asu Almabayev over Alex Perez, citing Almabayev's well-rounded game and ability to mix takedowns with striking. He questions Perez's inactivity and believes Almabayev's pressure will be too much. He predicts a 29-28 decision win.
Zane picks Almabayev on 'vibes' due to Perez's injury history and unreliability. He notes that if Perez is healthy, Almabayev's game may not beat him, but he doesn't trust Perez to hold up. He mentions Almabayev's submission skills but says he's not a submission hunter, and that Perez has been competitive but plagued by injuries.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 41 of 77 | 53% | 45 of 81 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 31 of 66 | 46% | 43 of 78 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 27 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 18 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 25 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatsuro Taira | 41 of 77 | 53% | 22 of 49 | 10 of 13 | 9 of 15 | 31 of 64 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Perez | 31 of 66 | 46% | 25 of 57 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 28 of 59 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatsuro Taira | 23 of 43 | 53% | 9 of 23 | 9 of 12 | 5 of 8 | 16 of 34 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Perez | 17 of 43 | 39% | 14 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 36 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tatsuro Taira | 18 of 34 | 52% | 13 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 15 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Perez | 14 of 23 | 60% | 11 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Taira (-185), Perez (+154)
Round 1
The final fight of the evening comes in a rare non-title flyweight tilt, with former title challenger Perez (25-8, 7-4 UFC) coming in on short notice. He will try to hand high-flying unbeaten Japanese contender Taira (15-0, 5-0 UFC) his first pro loss. Action is sure to come from these two fighters, but before it does, they come together in front of referee Herb Dean to hear their final instructions and bump fists. It’s on with the show. While Taira is in the center of the cage, he steps back when a leg kick flies by. He throws one back, and Perez targets his front leg once more. The former title challenger goes after one more kick, and the two end up closed in on one another. Taira tries to set up the Thai clinch, and Perez dirty boxes and fights off level changes until he can break away. Perez sneaks in a knee on the break, and he digs several punches to the body. Taira pushes him away and lines up a power right hand, and Perez ducks and thwacks his front leg wither another two kicks. Taira splits the guard with two punches, and Perez darts at him with three punches, landing the third of them. Taira sticks out a jab and a head kick, and Perez rings his bell with two compact hooks. Perez again crowds him throwing bombs, and Taira gets his head knocked around briefly before disengaging. Taira settles down and jabs a few times, but Perez blasts with a number of uppercuts. Taira aims a knee to the head to break off the clinch, and he keeps his jab flowing. Taira follows one jab with a right hand, and he dodges the counter one-two. Taira rails his man with a sharp uppercut, and he finds another as Perez backpedals. Taira slaps the front leg with a kick, and Perez returns fire with one before charging in to tie him up. Taira cannot hold on, and Perez escapes and darts forward with his hands flying. Taira pushes off and swipes his fingers into the Californian’s eye, and Dean calls time. Perez uses a cloth brought in from the doctor to wipe his eye clean, and Dean goes over to warn Taira. After about a minute, Perez is good to go. Perez swings hard with punches to the body and scoops the Japanese fighter up to dump him on the floor. Taira attempts to sweep, but he settles for standing up and getting away. Perez pushes out a front kick and dodges a head kick as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Round 2
Perez rushes out of his corner to invite a glove touch, and it is accepted as Dean warns Taira for outstretched fingers. Perez swings wildly with wide punches, and Taira spins him around with a leg kick. Taira snipes him on the way in with a right hand, and he appears to push off and poke the eye again. Perez complains it was a foul, and Dean calls time and asks for replay to check it. The replay shows the eye poke, and Dean goes over to Taira to give him a hard warning. They start up after around 45 seconds, and Perez re-measures his jab. Taira holds his left hand out and blasts the former title challenger with an uppercut, but Perez pays it no mind and unleashes a series of haymakers to knock Taira back. Taira scores a low kick and lands with his own heavy blows, but Perez lands the heavier of the two and it shows by Taira’s face changing shade. Perez works on the front leg with kicks on the inside and out, and Perez gets stood up on the way back with one coming back his direction. Perez shrugs off an uppercut to lob bombs, and he catches Taira flush and lets the counters graze his cheeks. Taira rushes at him and takes the fight down, and as soon as Perez turns, Taira takes his back while standing. Taira leans to one side in hopes of wrenching Perez down, and he keeps the body triangle tight while softening Perez up.
Taira keeps leaning to one side to tug Perez off-balance, and Perez falls awkwardly when leaning back. As he does, Perez’ right knee figuratively explodes, and Perez lets out a screech of pain as Taira is on top of him. Perez taps the canvas to make sure that Dean is getting involved, and Taira dismounts him and looks on with concern. Perez rolls to his back and writhes in agony, clutching his damaged limb as medical professionals swarm him.
This is an unusual situation because it is not simply a freak occurrence from a strange landing, but rather something Taira set up to target one leg and drag him down in that specific angle. Whether he was intending on causing fight-ending injury or simply moving to a more dominant position, it worked, and Taira moves his stellar undefeated record to 16-0 while passing the largest test of his career. The victorious youngster from Japan shouts on the interview that he is very happy, and he asks for a title shot. He confidently declares that he wants everyone in the flyweight division to line up in front of him, and he will mow them down. When Taira gets back into the cage again, it will likely be in a huge fight at 125 pounds. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.
The Official Result
Tatsuro Taira def. Alex Perez R2 2:59 via TKO (Knee Injury)
Angelo picks Alex Perez as an underdog, arguing that Perez has shown he can defend takedowns against elite wrestlers like Muhammad Mokaev. He believes Taira's takedowns are not as good, and Perez has the striking advantage. He notes Perez's recent knockout win and experience. He thinks the plus 170 odds offer value and plans to place a bet.
Cody picks Alex Perez as a plus money underdog, arguing that flyweight fights are always close and Perez is a veteran with a wrestling base, BJJ black belt, and decent striking. He highlights Perez's 82% takedown defense and notes that Taira's wrestling is not good enough to take him down. Cody also points out that Taira struggled with Edgar Chairez, got dropped, and showed questionable cardio, which could be a problem in a five-round fight. He believes Perez's experience and power will take over as the fight goes on.
Daniel Vreeland acknowledges Alex Perez's resurgence and boxing/wrestling advantages but leans toward Taira due to his youth, reach, defensive striking, and opportunistic finishing ability. He notes Taira's incremental development and believes he can get past Perez, possibly by submission. However, he admits it could be a vet lesson and is not fully confident.
Jacob picks Tatsuro Taira, arguing that Perez has been outgrappled by top competition and Taira is more well-rounded than Mokaev. He believes Taira's striking and grappling are superior, and he will set up takedowns with strikes. He thinks Perez's takedown defense won't hold up and Taira will submit him. He is confident and offers to bet openly.
Perez's defensive grappling will shut down Taira's wrestling, which I'm not sold on. In the striking, Perez will dictate the pace with calf kicks to slow Taira and then open up his hands, finishing Taira in the third or fourth round.
Paul agrees with Cody, stating that Taira is a prospect who may look like a stud one day but the level of competition Perez has faced is far superior. He notes that Perez has been fighting the best in the division for years and is a big-time gatekeeper. Paul acknowledges the risk of Taira getting takedowns and taking the back, but he is still with Cody on betting Alex Perez.
The MMA Guru picks Tatsuro Taira by TKO. He believes Taira is better technically on the feet than Muhammad Mokaev, and that his grappling is more opportunistic and technical. He notes Taira's ability to take the back, reverse positions, and his good right hand. He thinks Perez may crumble under pressure and that Taira's youth and improvement over his career, plus having more notice for this fight, will lead to a finish. He also mentions the narrative of Taira opening doors for Japanese MMA.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Perez | 0 | 22 of 55 | 40% | 22 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 1 | 28 of 71 | 39% | 28 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Perez | 0 | 10 of 31 | 32% | 10 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 13 of 35 | 37% | 13 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alex Perez | 0 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 1 | 15 of 36 | 41% | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Perez | 22 of 55 | 40% | 13 of 44 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 22 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 28 of 71 | 39% | 11 of 50 | 8 of 11 | 9 of 10 | 28 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Perez | 10 of 31 | 32% | 6 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 13 of 35 | 37% | 4 of 23 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 13 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Perez | 12 of 24 | 50% | 7 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 15 of 36 | 41% | 7 of 27 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Mark Smith will referee the main event. Perez takes the center of the cage and starts poking with his jab. Nicolau is patient and not firing back. Perez fires a straight right and connects with a low kick. Nicolau eats another leg kick. Perez fires off a series of body punches. Perez lands a nice uppercut and then a right to the body. Nicolau lands a huge counter with a left hook, but it's really his only punch this round, so he needs a lot more than just that. Perez lands a leg kick and then eats one from Nicolau.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Round 2
Perez comes out pumping his jab and eats a leg kick. An uppercut slips past Nicolau's guard. Perez lands two leg kicks and is still the much more active fighter. Nicolau throws a 1-2 that goes off the guard of Perez. Nicolau eats a step-in right hand but fires off a leg kick. Perez lands two hooks and finishes the combination with a leg kick. Nicolau lands a push kick.
Perez hurts Nicolau with an overhand right. Perez follows up with a right hook, and Nicolau is out cold.
What a KO!
The Official Result
Alex Perez def. Matheus Nicolau via KO (Punch); R2, 2:16.
Angelo picks Matheus Nicolau, citing his technical striking, accuracy, and grappling chops. He acknowledges Alex Perez is a dog who looked good against Muhammad Mokaev, but notes Perez didn't let his hands go in that fight. He worries about Nicolau coming off a knockout loss, which could affect his chin or aggression. He expects Nicolau to be calculated and patient, using his speed and technique to win.
Cody picks Nicolau as the more well-rounded fighter, better suited for five rounds. He notes Perez's weight cut issues and short notice, and believes Nicolau's efficiency and durability will carry him to a decision or late stoppage.
Daniel believes Nicolau has no technical weaknesses, with excellent boxing, takedown defense from Nova União, and strong jiu-jitsu. He notes Nicolau's chin is a concern but thinks Perez is overrated and that Nicolau will control the tempo and outpoint him. He picks Nicolau to win and take the next step toward title aspirations.
Perez has a wrestling and grappling advantage over Nicolau. He should be able to take the fight to the ground and control Nicolau from top position. Nicolau is the better striker, but Perez's wrestling should be the difference. I expect Perez to win on the scorecards, possibly with a TKO if he batters the lead leg.
Paul agrees with Cody, citing Nicolau's cleaner, more efficient work over five rounds. He highlights Perez's durability issues and low volume, and expects a decision win for Nicolau with a possible late stoppage if Perez tires.
The MMA Guru picks Matheus Nicolau, calling him the more technical and well-rounded fighter. He notes that Nicolau has only been beaten by flash KOs (head kick from Dustin Ortiz, knee from Brandon Royval) and is otherwise undefeated since 2012. He criticizes Alex Perez as basic and lacking dynamic finishing ability. He predicts a decision win for Nicolau, possibly 4-1.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 30 of 87 | 34% | 47 of 114 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:44 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 47 of 104 | 45% | 56 of 119 | 3 of 20 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 4:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 12 of 41 | 29% | 12 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 29 of 60 | 48% | 32 of 69 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 18 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 9 of 18 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 5 of 17 | 29% | 17 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:20 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 10 of 27 | 37% | 15 of 32 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Mokaev | 30 of 87 | 34% | 22 of 73 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 9 | 19 of 74 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 10 |
| Alex Perez | 47 of 104 | 45% | 34 of 85 | 9 of 12 | 4 of 7 | 31 of 81 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 20 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Mokaev | 12 of 41 | 29% | 5 of 28 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 8 | 12 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Perez | 29 of 60 | 48% | 24 of 51 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 14 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 20 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Mokaev | 13 of 29 | 44% | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 6 |
| Alex Perez | 8 of 17 | 47% | 3 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Mokaev | 5 of 17 | 29% | 5 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Alex Perez | 10 of 27 | 37% | 7 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mokaev (-360), Perez (+285)
Round 1
The top of the flyweight division may have a bit of a logjam, the victor of this next matchup might nose in as a contender depending on the result. Perez (24-7, 6-3 UFC) might have come up short to the champ and then lost in his next fight against the current champion, but former title challengers tend to have shorter roads back to contention than the rest of the flock. On the other hand, brash unbeaten Mokaev (11-0, 1 NC; 5-0 UFC) could punch his ticket to a crack at gold with a mighty triumph tonight. Referee Keith Peterson draws the charge of what should be the most divisionally relevant match of the evening, and the two men touch ‘em up before getting after it. There will be zero nonsense going forward. Mokaev is quick to lead off with a leg kick, and when it misses, he aims a second that does reach the target. Perez paws out and motions that he suffered an eye poke, and Mokaev lets him recover when Peterson does not call it. Perez launches a head kick, Mokaev responds, and Perez falls over when throwing a kick back. Mokaev lets him up, so they can continue trading single strikes one after the other. Perez charges with a punch combination that all comes up short, and Mokaev responds with a heavy left hand that just grazes past the target. Perez continues powering forward, and Mokaev drives a knee to the side that hurts Perez. Mokaev lands a few more strikes before changing levels, and Perez shuts him down and escapes to gather his thoughts. Perez sits down on a strong right hand that stuns Mokaev momentarily, and Mokaev grabs hold of him and tries to take him down in a body lock. A wild scramble endues, and Perez fights off the attempt and gets to back his feet to land a right hand on the eye socket. Perez shuts down another distant shot from his opponent and makes him pay with a right hand on the exit. Perez whiffs on two punches on the way in, and he slaps a leg kick on the lead leg of his opponent. Mokaev goes up high with a kick that glances off the raised guard, and he darts in with a guard. Perez surges ahead, and Mokaev hops away from every punch but the last one. Mokaev eats it and shoots low for a single. Perez stands him up, but on the second effort, he gets dragged to his backside. Mokaev wraps his hands around Perez’ legs, and Perez turns to his side to get to his knees. Mokaev leaps on top when Perez scoots his way to the fence, and he takes three-quarter mount and starts raining down left hands. Peterson is watching very closely as Mokaev clubs his opponent with punches and a few elbows until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Round 2
The flyweights race towards one another to offer their glove touch and engage. Perez jabs his way forward, and he backs off when eating a front kick to the body. Perez lands a punch as Mokaev shoots, and Mokaev instead takes Perez’ back standing and briefly threatens a choke. Perez scrapes him off the side using the fence, and he leans himself on it and turns around when Mokaev changes levels. Perez shoves his man to his seat, and when Mokaev jumps back up, Perez sweeps the leg like Mortal Kombat to knock Mokaev back over again. Mokaev stands and attempts a takedown, and Perez shuts him down and swings wildly with a huge right hand. Perez catches his foe at the end of a left hand, and Mokaev drops to his knees and changes levels for a single. Perez hits the ground and bounces up, allowing Mokaev to swirl around and get hold of him from behind. Mokaev clings to the Californian, imposing his weight but not getting him back down to the ground. Perez snatches up a guillotine choke out of nowhere and pushes Mokaev down to the ground, and he abandons it to press Mokaev down to his knees and try to push him over. Mokaev turns the corner and attacks a single, and Perez’ elbows to the side of his head make him change his mind. Perez frames off and knees the body, and he is shoved away. Mokaev looses a single overhand right that is easily blocked, and Perez closes in and walks into a body kick. Perez tries to catch the younger man, but Mokaev is well out of the way before fists meet face. Mokaev resets and jabs, and he snaps out a body shot and a front kick to the same target. Perez blitzes and swings recklessly, and he succeeds in pushing Mokaev to the wall. Perez gets in several short uppercuts when Mokaev threatens with a takedown, and he hangs on with a potential submission until the close round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Round 3
The two men come together to hug it out before the round begins, and they back off and clap hands when Peterson clocks them in. Mokaev shrugs off a jab to plant two one-twos on the face, and Perez ignores them to plod forward. Perez connects with a left hand, and Mokaev falls to his knees potentially for a level change and not from damage. Perez sets up a guillotine choke that he uses more to keep his weight down to stop a takedown than to submit him. Mokaev explodes and turns the corner to take Perez’ back standing up, and Perez pops right back up when Mokaev sweeps him. Perez stands, and Mokaev hits a marvelous suplex. Perez does not stay grounded for more than seconds before popping up, and the two get back to striking range. Perez lands a shot, and Mokaev looks at him funny. Mokaev shoots in and is stuffed, and he backs off. Perez avoids a body shot, but Mokaev reaches him with an overhand right. Mokaev backs off and has a head kick land around the guard, and he attacks for a takedown that is not there. Perez stifles another attempt and keeps his man down on a knee, and Mokaev explodes into a single that also gets stopped in its tracks. Mokaev sticks out a one-two and shoots, and Perez chases after him taking strikes when not stopping takedowns. Perez peppers him with short shots, and he knees Mokaev in the head while Mokaev tries to keep his hand down. Peterson warns Perez from an illegal knee, and Mokaev spins around to stand up and grab Perez around the waist. This could be anyone’s fight, depending on how the grappling is scored.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev (29-28 Mokaev)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev (29-28 Mokaev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev (29-28 Mokaev)
The Official Result
Muhammad Mokaev def. Alex Perez via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo is very confident in Muhammad Mokaev, calling the -240 odds a discount. He notes Mokaev's dominant wrestling and composure, while Alex Perez hasn't won in four years and has no wins over active UFC fighters. He expects Mokaev to win despite sometimes making fights close.
Big Brady picks Mokaev, citing Perez's long layoff and 14 canceled bouts. He notes Perez has only 3 minutes of cage time in the last 4 years and was submitted quickly in his last two fights. Mokaev is younger, hungrier, and more active, with multiple submissions in the UFC. He expects Mokaev to submit Perez, possibly in the third round, but acknowledges the line might be off if the best version of Perez shows up.
Cody picks Perez as a dog, arguing that Mokaev has shown holes in recent fights and could have lost to Malcolm Gordon, Jafel Filho, and Tim Elliott. He notes that flyweight is the most competitive division and that Perez, despite the layoff, is only 31 and has fought top competition. He believes Perez's striking and grappling are superior to Mokaev's previous opponents and that the layoff may not be a negative if Perez used it to improve.
Mokaev is dominant in the grappling realm and good at finding submissions, but his striking is more flash than substance. He was nearly beaten by Tim Elliot, who caused scrambles and frustrations. Perez is a dangerous opponent who may be motivated to prove himself, but Mokaev should still win. The host expects the fight to go to the scorecards with Mokaev landing better damage and control, but it will be closer than the odds indicate.
Paul picks Mokaev but is hesitant due to Perez's long layoff and question marks. He notes Mokaev's youth and improvement but also his low volume and reliance on takedowns without much damage. He mentions the Apex favors Mokaev's style as there's no crowd to pressure the ref to stand them up. He ultimately sticks with Mokaev despite considering Perez.
The MMA Guru picks Mokaev to win by submission in the third round, following the trend of Mokaev's fights where he looks bad early but submits opponents late. He predicts Perez will win the first round, then Mokaev will chain wrestling in the second, and Perez will slow down and give up the neck for a rear-naked choke in the third.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 8 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 10 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 8 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 10 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Pantoja | 8 of 12 | 66% | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Perez | 10 of 14 | 71% | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandre Pantoja | 8 of 12 | 66% | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Perez | 10 of 14 | 71% | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pantoja (-180), Perez (+155)
Round 1
Just like the previous match, the victor in this contest – depending on who gets their hand raised – could be next for the belt, depending on how the Deiveson Figueiredo situation shakes out. Both Pantoja (24-5, 8-3 UFC) and Perez (24-6, 6-2 UFC) have suffered losses to that man in the last couple years, while the former has beaten ex-champ Brandon Moreno already – twice if you include the victory on “The Ultimate Fighter.” The logjam of the division will be cleared up a little more after this fight ends, and referee Kerry Hatley is ready to keep the pace with these two 125-pound contenders. They touch gloves, and come out fighting. The brawl is instant, as Pantoja charges out swinging hammers. Perez is right there to throw down with him, and they proceed to smash one another in the face with punches in bunches. A brief lull after the wild early exchange leads to Pantoja changing levels, tripping Perez, and circling around to take Perez’ back standing. The Brazilian sets up a body lock and he starts busting Perez upside the head. Pantoja changes things up with a palm-to-palm face crank, and he makes Perez’s life miserable as he crushes on it with all his might. When that does not succeed, “The Cannibal” snatches up a neck crank with a grip on the other side, and he crushes down with his forearm. Perez leans back, struggling to stay afloat, and the crank is not even under the chin. It does not matter for Pantoja, who forces Perez to say “matte” and live to fight another day. This is a remarkable win for Pantoja, making a statement and shouting in his post-fight interview that he is the next flyweight champion. It may be hard to argue that he should be up next, after blasting through a former title challenger in about 90 seconds.
The Official Result
Alexandre Pantoja def. Alex Perez R1 1:31 via Submission (Neck Crank)
Big Brady picks Alexandre Pantoja to win by second-round submission. He considers Pantoja underrated, noting his wins over Moreno and Kara-France. He highlights Pantoja's durability and elite grappling, while Perez has been submitted multiple times. He expects Pantoja to mix in takedowns and eventually submit Perez.
Cody picks Pantoja, citing Perez's long layoff (two years), multiple fight cancellations, and a bad weight miss. He notes that Perez is talented but we don't know where he's at. Pantoja is a junkyard dog with good power, grappling, and improving cardio. He thinks Pantoja will clip Perez, hurt him, and possibly get a submission. He also mentions that the -180 price might be a bit steep but still favors Pantoja.
Daniel is high on Pantoja, calling him extremely underrated and talented. He notes Pantoja has beaten both Moreno and Kara-France on TUF and in the UFC, and has wins over Manel Kape and Brandon Royval. He thinks Pantoja will submit Perez after a brief striking exchange. He questions Perez's ability when opponents stand up to him, citing the Benavidez and Figueiredo fights. However, he missed the line at -150 and refuses to force a bet at -185, so he passes on betting.
Preet picks Pantoja, seeing either a club-and-sub or submission victory via grappling scrambles. He acknowledges Perez's skills—heavy hands, wrestling, calf kicks—but thinks Pantoja's opportunistic grappling and finishing ability will prevail. He finds the fight volatile and is confused by the totals, but ultimately sides with Pantoja.
Paul also picks Pantoja, echoing concerns about Perez's inactivity and weight issues. He notes that Perez is talented but hasn't fought in two years and missed weight in his last attempt. Pantoja has advantages in power and grappling, and Paul expects Pantoja to clip him with something and possibly get a submission. He says until he sees Perez on the scale, he can't trust him.
The MMA Guru picks Alexandre Pantoja by 29-28 decision. He expects Pantoja to win the first two rounds with takedowns, back takes, and body kicks, while Perez's leg kicks become a factor in round three. Perez may win the third round, but Pantoja's early work secures the win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 6 of 14 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 6 of 14 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 5 of 8 | 62% | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Perez | 6 of 14 | 42% | 3 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 5 of 8 | 62% | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Perez | 6 of 14 | 42% | 3 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
After a long journey, we have arrived to the main event of UFC 255. A flyweight championship bout tops this card, as “Deus da Guerra” Figueiredo (19-1, 8-1 UFC) aims to record his first defense against the first fighter from Dana White’s Contender Series to ever get a UFC title shot in Perez (24-5, 6-1 UFC). Keeping this headliner on the up-and-up is referee Marc Goddard, and the glove touch precedes the final action for the evening. Hang on tight. Perez begins with a whiffing body kick, and Figueiredo misses with one of his own. Figueiredo slaps the body with a kick, and Perez charges in with punches but just misses. Figueiredo circles away to avoid a few shots, and Figueiredo kicks again to the body. Figueiredo lands a punch that may have hurt Perez’ eye, and he smells blood and attacks. The champ targets the body, and Perez kicks to the leg and then the body heavily. Perez ducks under a looping right hand and pursues a takedown, but Figueiredo keeps upright by hopping around and grabbing the fence. Goddard slaps his hand away, and Figueiredo falls over and attacks a leg lock. Perez twists through it and climbs down into his opponent’s full, closed guard. “Deus da Guerra” snatches up a guillotine choke and squeezes with everything he has. Perez gets to one knee as the Brazilian uses a vice-like grip to crush his opponent, and before Perez can stand or pop his head out, he is forced to surrender. In no time at all, Figueiredo defends his title against a tough challenger, and did so with style points. The champ has now finished his opponent in each of his last four victories, and may have tied the division’s all-time finish record in the process. In victory, Figueiredo says he is ready for Moreno, who won earlier tonight, and asks that UFC President Dana White makes it happen. With this event concluding with a pair of 125-pound title fights in the books, we will see you next week for an ESPN2 card topped off by a heavyweight rumble.
The Official Result
Deiveson Figueiredo def. Alex Perez R1 1:57 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Big Brady picks Deiveson Figueiredo to win inside the distance. He notes Figueiredo is a killer with heavy hands and a great submission game, while Perez has been submitted three times and is stepping up in competition. He thinks Perez will shoot takedowns and get caught.
Daniel picks Figueiredo, citing his killer instinct and improved nutrition. He notes Perez has a chin issue and was dropped by a head clash. He believes Figueiredo's power and pressure will be too much, and that he will be a long-reigning champion.
The host picks Alex Perez to win by decision, seeing value at plus 250. He believes Perez has the wrestling and calf kicks to trouble Figueiredo, and that the line is skewed by recency bias. He notes Perez's win over Formiga (who beat Figueiredo) and thinks he can implement a game plan of leg kicks and takedowns.
The MMA Guru picks Deiveson Figueiredo to win by first-round submission (guillotine choke). He believes Figueiredo will rock Perez, who will then shoot a bad takedown and get caught. He notes Perez's history of being guillotined and Figueiredo's power and submission skills.
Asu Almabayev - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Perez | 0 | 40 of 98 | 40% | 84 of 143 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 36 of 90 | 40% | 68 of 126 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 1:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Perez | 0 | 18 of 60 | 30% | 40 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 20 of 45 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 | |
| 2 | Alex Perez | 0 | 21 of 37 | 56% | 43 of 60 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 13 of 40 | 32% | 45 of 76 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Alex Perez | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Perez | 40 of 98 | 40% | 14 of 57 | 15 of 23 | 11 of 18 | 32 of 85 | 3 of 7 | 5 of 6 |
| Asu Almabayev | 36 of 90 | 40% | 24 of 76 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 84 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Perez | 18 of 60 | 30% | 2 of 32 | 9 of 16 | 7 of 12 | 18 of 58 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Asu Almabayev | 20 of 45 | 44% | 12 of 37 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Perez | 21 of 37 | 56% | 11 of 24 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 13 of 26 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 6 |
| Asu Almabayev | 13 of 40 | 32% | 9 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alex Perez | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Asu Almabayev | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabayev (-200); Perez (+170)
Round 1
A pair of speedster flyweights grace the cage, with a potential passing of the torch moment possible even though these two athletes are separated by just two years of age. The relative elder statesman, former title challenger Perez (25-9, 7-5 UFC) grew up in the Tachi Palace Fights circuit after the WEC was absorbed by the UFC. His Kazakhstani foe Almabayev (22-3, 5-1 UFC) bounded around Russia and the CIS for his early career, taking fights in noteworthy leagues like Alash Pride, Tech-Krep FC, ACB and M-1 before landing in the big leagues here. Referee Dan Movahedi will keep things on the up-and-up as the prelims keep going, and the fighters elect to touch gloves.
Perez keeps his range early with front kick offerings, using them as range-finders and not to necessarily attack and cause damage. Almabayev waits to score a single low kick, and Perez charges him with fists flying. Almabayev responds with a wheel kick that collides with the guard, and Perez gets his leg kick back. Perez swings like a wild man, and his low kick opens up strikes up top. Almabayev fires back and then shoots down for an extremely low single down on Perez’ hips. Perez defends by putting his back to the wall and hacking at the side of the head with elbows. Movahedi warns him to not smack the Kazakh in the back of the head, and Almabayev spins Perez around but cannot put him down to the floor. Perez escapes, and he resets and rushes Almabayev again with a wide left hook. Perez mixes up his punches to the body and head with his flurries, and he ends a combination with a front kick. Almabayev kicks him in the ribs and just misses a spinning back fist. Perez darts in recklessly, arms wide, and he hurls punches as Almabayev shells up and rebounds off the wall.
Perez kicks and loads up on punches, allowing Almabayev to time knees up the middle for counters. Perez ignores them and fires off hard calf kicks, and he sways back to watch a huge right hand whiz past his face. Almabayev swings hard with his right, and Perez chips away with his kick. Almabayev kicks back, and they trade hooks at the same time. A pair of tiny tornadoes—not of the Tecia Pennington variety—go at it like whirling dervishes or Beyblades, depending on one’s preferred reference. They lay into one another violently, and neither appears to gain the upper hand as the pendulum swings back and forth. Almabayev times a takedown when Perez swings for the fences, tripping away the Californian’s balance and placing him gingerly to the mat. Perez elbows him in the back of the head a few times, and remains elbowing and not settling until the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Round 2
The flyweights clap hands, and Perez is loaded for bear and ready to unload. He proceeds to stalk Almabayev down and let his hands go. Almabayev is more than prepared with his uppercut to counter, although he takes a low kick and a right hand that put him on the floor. Perez dives down with a blistering right hand, and Almabayev shakes it off and bursts back to his feet. Perez sprints at his foe and wraps him up with a body lock to wrest him to the mat. Almabayev once more is able to get up without taking a lot of damage, and he pays Perez back with an uppercut and a right hook. Perez swings for the bleachers back at him, and their heads clack together when letting loose. Almabayev gets off another uppercut, and he reaches Perez at the end of a right hand. Perez practically runs at the retreating Almabayev to hit him back, seemingly possessing the strategy of trying to give Almabayev one back every time Almabayev strikes him. Almabayev spins with a well-timed back kick that pounds into the liver, and Perez does not love this and keeps a stiff upper lip before rushing Almabayev and tackling him to the floor.
Perez establishes himself on top, attacking with punches and elbows when he manages to find an opening. Almabayev elbows him off his back, and several of them bang into the back of Perez’ head, drawing a warning. Almabayev turns to his knees to get up, and Perez wraps him up with a head lock and knees him in the forehead. Almabayev swings his way out of the position and backs off Perez with his blows. Another spinning kick from the Kazakh misses the mark, so he shoots for a single. Perez hops around and puts his back to the wall to stay afloat, and he elbows Almabayev in the dome before letting go. Almabayev drives an uppercut home, and Perez goes for his own single that he uses to bowl Almabayev to the wall. Almabayev counters with a trip takedown, and the back-and-forth round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Round 3
The round kicks off with another spinning wheel kick from Almabayev, which stuns Perez and opens him up to danger. Perez staggers to the side and gathers his thoughts to shoot in for a double.
Almabayev leaps in the air to snatch up a flying guillotine choke, wrapping his legs around the waist and wrenching the grip with all of his might. Perez, who knows his goose is cooked as the choke is vice-like and about to deplete him of his consciousness, has no choice but to tap out while still standing up.
This marks the fifth time that Perez has had to surrender because someone had control of his neck, and it is undoubtedly the biggest win of the career of “Zulfikhar.” On a two-fight win streak, he calls for a title shot and a post-fight bonus.
The Official Result
Asu Almabayev def. Alex Perez R3 0:22 via Submission (Flying Guillotine Choke)
Angelo picks Asu Almabayev over Alex Perez, calling it an easy win. He criticizes Perez's continued employment and describes Almabayev as a flashy striker and dominant grappler with strong pressure and takedowns. Perez's leg kicks and boxing won't work against Almabayev's aggression. Angelo expects a decision win for Almabayev.
Big Brady leans Asu Almabayev by second-round submission, citing Perez's injury history and submission vulnerabilities. He expects Almabayev to get the fight to the ground and submit Perez, who has tapped out five times. He notes Perez's takedown defense but believes Almabayev will find a way.
Cody picks Alex Perez confidently, noting his world-class skills despite injury history. He believes Perez is the better striker and grappler, and that Almabayev is one-dimensional with low volume. Cody thinks Perez can stuff takedowns and outpoint Almabayev, and the plus money is worth the risk.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Almabayev but emphasizing that if Perez is in shape and healthy, Almabayev doesn't have a game to beat him. He notes Perez's injuries and the fact that he gets caught in subs or blasted by bigger punchers, but doesn't get controlled and out-wrestled. He calls it a good booking.
Lucrative James picks Asu Almabayev but with hesitation. He notes Perez's tendency to give up his back and get submitted, and his recent knee surgery. He believes Almabayev's grappling will be the difference, predicting a submission or close decision. He acknowledges Perez could win on the feet early.
Almabayev has a better gas tank and scrambling ability. Perez is coming off a knee injury and layoff. Almabayev's speed, power, and grappling should overwhelm Perez, leading to a decision win.
Paul picks Alex Perez, citing his superior striking and wrestling. He notes that Almabayev relies on takedowns and has poor striking volume. Paul believes Perez can defend takedowns and win on the feet, and the plus money is attractive.
The MMA Guru picks Asu Almabayev over Alex Perez, citing Almabayev's well-rounded game and ability to mix takedowns with striking. He questions Perez's inactivity and believes Almabayev's pressure will be too much. He predicts a 29-28 decision win.
Zane picks Almabayev on 'vibes' due to Perez's injury history and unreliability. He notes that if Perez is healthy, Almabayev's game may not beat him, but he doesn't trust Perez to hold up. He mentions Almabayev's submission skills but says he's not a submission hunter, and that Perez has been competitive but plagued by injuries.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 55 of 90 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 2 | 0 | 9:26 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 26 of 45 | 57% | 118 of 151 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 10 of 18 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 3:16 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 36 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 32 of 45 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:47 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 46 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 13 of 27 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 36 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 22 of 42 | 52% | 12 of 26 | 5 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 20 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 16 |
| Jose Ochoa | 26 of 45 | 57% | 8 of 19 | 13 of 18 | 5 of 8 | 17 of 33 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 5 of 10 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Ochoa | 10 of 18 | 55% | 1 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 8 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 11 of 20 | 55% | 5 of 12 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 11 |
| Jose Ochoa | 5 of 9 | 55% | 2 of 3 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 6 of 12 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 |
| Jose Ochoa | 11 of 18 | 61% | 5 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabayev (-110); Ochoa (-110)
Round 1
The momentum of a 17-fight win streak for Almabayev (21-3, 4-1 UFC) came to a screeching halt not just because of his loss to Manel Kape, but
how
Ochoa is ready for combat, attacking repeatedly with low kicks and a hard left hand. Almabayev ties him up after taking a clean land, and he absorbs a knee and a left hand on the way to trying to take the fight down. Ochoa keeps his balance with the wall behind him, and he quickly pops up when Almabayev drags him to his knees. Almabayev uses a body lock to hurl “Kalzifer” to the floor, landing in side control, but once more Ochoa bursts back to his feet even with his fellow flyweight holding onto him. Almabayev looks to jump and take the back standing, but he falls off the back. On a second effort, Almabayev is able to take the back upright, but he has to hook his toes in the fence to stay balanced. He releases the grip and separates.
As Ochoa bears down on his opponent, Almabayev tags him with a punch and a high kick. Ochoa keeps pressing forward, and Almabayev slickly ducks under and drags him to the mat, where he gets on his back and starts crushing Ochoa’s nose with a face crank. Almabayev climbs onto his foe’s back while Ochoa is on his feet, and Ochoa leans against the fence to take some of the weight off of him. Almabayev hunts for a choke but is in the wrong position as he is nearly wriggled off, and he tries for a desperation leglock to stay there. He lets it go, and Ochoa rushes after him laying into him with his fists. Almabayev tries a takedown, and he narrowly avoids a knee on the way back up after it fails. Almabayev spins for a back kick, and Ochoa pushes through and takes his back with 30 seconds to go, setting up the body triangle as soon as he lands. Both men decided against submissions and start punching each other from that specific position until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Round 2
The fighters tap hands together twice to get going, and Ochoa is the aggressor although he walks through two low kicks and a takedown shot. Almabayev gets hold of the single and wrangles Ochoa to a knee but no further, as Ochoa springs back up. Ochoa goes after the Kazakhstan native, digging a body shot and firing off a knee up top. Almabayev ducks into a head kick but still manages to complete the takedown he was seeking. Ochoa scrambles as Almabayev is looking to pass, and he stands up and grabs hold of the neck of his opponent to threaten. Almabayev shakes out of it and knees his foe in the stomach. They trade some strikes on the inside and separate. Ochoa shrugs off a punch up top to nail Almabayev with a left hand and a knee, and Almabayev crashes through his hips to complete a takedown.
Almabayev lands in the guard, where he remains comfortably and gets off the occasional strike. Ochoa makes Almabayev think twice about smothering his foe freely thanks to a number of hammerfists off his back that have some surprising pop on them. Almabayev attempts to pass to the side, looking to work through the knee shield from the Peruvian. Ochoa throws up an armbar off his back from out of nowhere, and he is warned for grabbing Almabayev’s gloves to set it up. Ochoa loses the grip as Almabayev yanks out of the posture, but he immediately sets up a triangle choke to further threaten. Ochoa hooks his foot under his knee, holding onto the maneuver as the horn blows.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Round 3
The flyweights meet in the middle, and Almabayev lands first with a low kick. He tries to follow his success with a looping right hand, and he wings an overhand right to the stomach that allows him to shoot in on Ochoa’s hips. Ochoa attempts a knee to catch Almabayev coming at him, and he is dragged to his seat when it does not hit the wrestler flush. Almabayev grabs the fence, and Herzog calls him on it and breaks them apart. Almabayev apologizes, but he goes right after Ochoa for another takedown, this time in the open cage. Ochoa jumps guard for a guillotine choke, and it is tight until it is not as Almabayev calmly wriggles his neck out. Ochoa sets up a triangle choke from his high guard off his back, but Almabayev is able to easily break out of it.
Almabayev frames off with elbows to hammer down on the Peruvian, and Ochoa fights back every movement with hammerfists or some sort of scramble. Ochoa manages to turn to his knees and get upright with 90 second to spare, and Almabayev thanks him for this with a body kick and a takedown shot. Ochoa stuffs this attempt and is pushed to the wall, where they knee one another in the guts. Ochoa knocks Almabayev back with an elbow, and Almabayev points down at the floor to suggest that he wants to brawl for the final minute. Ochoa does not oblige him, so Almabayev surges into action with a left hand and a double. Ochoa puts his back to the wall and elbows the Kazakh in the side of the melon, until he gets free with a few seconds left. Ochoa overswings a right hand, and Almabayev ducks beneath him and takes his back standing. The fight ends with Almabayev holding on from behind.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev (30-27 Almabayev)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev (30-27 Almabayev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev (30-27 Almabayev)
The Official Result
Asu Almabayev def. Jose Ochoa via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Asu Almabayev despite the line swinging to make him an underdog. He notes Asu's flashy striking, dominant grappling, and ability to control range, while Jose Ochoa is on short notice. Angelo believes Asu's pace and pressure will be decisive, though he expects a close fight that may rely on judges. He placed a bet on Asu at -105.
Big Brady picks Jose Ochoa, citing his striking advantage and power. He believes Ochoa will stuff takedowns and get back up if taken down, then dominate on the feet. He notes Almabayev has low volume and no power, while Ochoa is a dangerous striker with finishing ability. He predicts a second-round knockout.
Connor sees Ochoa as a determined pressure fighter with fast hands who will punish Almabayev's rote responses. He notes that Almabayev struggled against Mennel Kopp's pressure and Ochoa is even more aggressive. He acknowledges the risk of Almabayev's clinch control but believes Ochoa's damage output will be decisive.
Almabayev is a much better grappler than Ochoa's previous opponent Duran. He should chain wrestle well, outscramble Ochoa, keep him in bad spots, and have striking success to win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Jose Ochoa, noting his near-win over Lona Cavanaught on short notice and his good grappling defense. He believes Almabayev's competition has been weak and that Ochoa's length and finishing potential will be key. He predicts a first or second-round finish for Ochoa.
Zane picks Ochoa as well, calling it a 'hope pick' because he loves Ochoa's game. He worries about Almabayev's clinch control but notes Ochoa's takedown defense and ability to get back up. He believes Ochoa's striking creativity and power will be the difference.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manel Kape | 0 | 61 of 115 | 53% | 62 of 119 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 40 of 80 | 50% | 40 of 81 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manel Kape | 0 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 20 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Manel Kape | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 18 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Manel Kape | 0 | 28 of 48 | 58% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manel Kape | 61 of 115 | 53% | 47 of 95 | 11 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 46 of 94 | 9 of 15 | 6 of 6 |
| Asu Almabayev | 40 of 80 | 50% | 19 of 55 | 13 of 17 | 8 of 8 | 38 of 77 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manel Kape | 19 of 40 | 47% | 15 of 33 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Asu Almabayev | 14 of 28 | 50% | 7 of 20 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Manel Kape | 14 of 27 | 51% | 10 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Asu Almabayev | 18 of 40 | 45% | 7 of 27 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Manel Kape | 28 of 48 | 58% | 22 of 39 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 27 | 9 of 15 | 6 of 6 |
| Asu Almabayev | 8 of 12 | 66% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kape (-205), Almabayev (+170)
Round 1
Rather than throwing hands with Brandon Royval, Kape (20-7, 5-3 UFC) gets a new foe on relatively short notice. Having prevailed in his last 17 outings including four in the UFC, Kazakhstan’s own Almabayev (21-2, 4-0 UFC) is ready to become a title contender. The wild flyweight stylistic clash will be overseen by referee Mike Beltran, who brings the two to the center of the cage to issue final instructions and bump fists. It’s on with the show. In alternate stances, they hand-fight early without engaging. Both men have their lead hands pop into each other until Almabayev springs into action with a powerful, audible body kick. Kape circles away and kicks the lead leg back. A lull in fight leads to a funny call from the audience, and Kape suddenly explodes forward with two left hands. Almabayev bounces off the wall and responds with an overhand right that comes up short, and Kape again charges him with a left. Almabayev ducks down and fires off a right hook and follows with a body kick, and Kape takes some time before again bursting straight ahead. Two quick blitzes from “Starboy” make Almabayev shrug his shoulders before kicking the body, and Kape brushes his arm to signals the kick did not land. Kape crashes in with a left, getting close enough to push himself past a spin kick from the Kazakhstan native. Kape reaches his opponent with two punches and wipes at his eye, with Almabayev possibly scraping him in the left eye when pushing off to escape. Kape cracks Almabayev again with his explosive, leaping punch, and Almabayev rebounds and stumbles off the fencing before gathering himself. Kape times a left and opens up with a right, hurting the streaking Almabayev and opening a cut around his left eye. Almabayev has a head kick blocked, and Kape attacks with a fury, snapping Almabayev’s head back and bouncing him off the fencing once more. Almabayev jabs, and he shoots for a single as Kape races at him. Kape shuts it down without concern, walks through a spinning elbow and puts six punches in rapid succession on Almabayev’s head and body. Kape’s swinging fists lead to Almabayev trying to grab hold of him, and Kape shoves him back and walks off. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Round 2
Almabayev’s eye has taken some serious damage from Kape’s knuckles, with blood appearing in the eyeball itself and not just leaking down his nose. Almabayev starts off the rounds in hopes of not letting Kape reach him by measuring out front kicks. A failed level change from Almabayev allows Kape to catch him with a punch, and Kape allows him to kick him so he can find his way in. As Kape backs off, he ducks to anticipatorily evade a spinning back kick. Kape measures more carefully than before, not lunging nearly as often, perhaps due to the threat of the takedown. Almabayev scores a left hand, and Kape brushes his shoulder off. When Kape threatens to come in, Almabayev fires off a head kick, and he leaps at Kape with a knee. Kape stands back, marches in to swing and gets clipped with a left hook. “Starboy” shrugs it off entirely and keeps advancing, backing off only when a spin kick flies by his face. Almabayev loads up on a power leg kick, turning his hips into the strike, and Kape quickly changes stances. Almabayev scores a left hand and fires off a head kick, and Kape barely blocks the kick in time. Almabayev splits the guard with an effective front kick, and Kape is stuck staring at him, feinting but not engaging with much more than single strikes. One such right hand scores, and Kape settles himself down and then suddenly leaps forward with a flying knee. When landing, he dings Almabayev with a right hand, and he lets Almabayev rebound off the wall and wags his finger at him. Almabayev rips a left hand to the body and narrowly misses a right over the top, and Kape walks him down and slips, recovering his footing to wipe his foot off. Kape then spins with a wheel kick, and he runs at Almabayev with fists flying. Almabayev signals to Beltran that he was poked in the eye, and Kape declares that it was a punch. After just a couple seconds, the replay official states it was a punch, and he restarts the fight. Kape charges again with leaping punches, catching Almabayev at the end of a right before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Round 3
The flyweights are so amped to get back to it, Beltran has to back them off before clocking them in. Kape takes the center of the cage and has his guard up to defend a body kick, but a low kick from Almabayev lands cleanly and trips Kape up. Kape strides forward, hurling punches at the midsection of his opponent, and Almabayev circles away to take the sting out of them. Kape probes his way in and has his front leg kicked hard, and he shrugs it off to punch Almabayey square in the jaw. Almabayev strikes back just as cleanly, and Kape maintains the pressure to make Almabayev have to sprint away. Almabayev shoots for a takedown, and when it fails, he has to back off. Kape surges forward throwing hands, and Almabayev claims he was poked again in the eye and tries to call time out. Beltran is having none of it—even though it was actually a swipe on his eyeball—and Almabayev desperately shoots. Kape shuts it down and lays into Almabayev with concussive punches.
As Kape lays it on with knees and punches, Almabayev turns tail and runs away, and Kape sprints after him hitting him whenever he can reach him. Beltran follows them closely as the 125ers speed around the Octagon, and after he catches up to a retreating Almabayev, he decides to wave the fight off.
At that moment, Almabayev was shooting for a double, but Beltran may have interpreted the running from one end of the cage to the other as physically surrendering and intervened. There will be much to discuss regarding Beltran and how this fight played out, including two uncalled eye scrapes—but Beltran is the sole arbiter of the bout, and fighters cannot call time-out. There may also be some debate on the specific nature of the stoppage, as Beltran stepped in several seconds after Kape landed any strikes, and therefore would be classified differently than a standard finish like via punches or some specific blow. No matter the exact method, it goes down as a technical knockout for “Starboy,” who demands two things: a title shot, and for his daughter to be allowed in the cage and into his arms. The promotion ushers her in, and she asks if Kape won. He proudly says he did, and that he is the best. It is very likely that Kape will have an opportunity to prove he is indeed the best flyweight in the world in his next encounter, in a rematch with champion Alexandre Pantoja, who bested him in 2021. If that fight happens next, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Asu Almabayev R3 2:16 via TKO (Retirement)
Angelo picks Manel Kape because of his explosive striking and southpaw pressure, noting that Almabayev's takedown success (1/6 in his last fight) is a major concern. He believes Almabayev needs to threaten takedowns to neutralize Kape's striking, but doubts he can do so effectively. Angelo also mentions a potential live bet opportunity if Almabayev fails to secure early takedowns.
Big Brady picks Manel Kape, citing his improved takedown defense and striking advantage. He notes Asu Almabayev is stepping up in competition and likely cannot hold Kape down. He expects Kape to stuff takedowns and win by decision, but warns that Kape sometimes fights passively.
Connor picks Kape, emphasizing that Kape is a pressure counter-puncher who will make Almabayev work under pressure, unlike Nicolau who gave Almabayev free distance. He notes that Almabayev's approach against Nicolau was rudimentary and that Kape's speed and power will be a problem. Connor also mentions that Kape is much more talented than Nicolau and that Almabayev's level of competition hasn't been high.
The host expects Kape to use his defensive grappling to shut down Almabayev's game. Once Almabayev decides to strike, that will be the beginning of the end, as Kape should land more effective strikes and possibly find a knockout, but ultimately win on the scorecards over 25 minutes.
The Guru picks Manel Kape over Asu Almabayev. He believes Kape is the truth and will become champion. He praises Kape's recent performance against Bruno Silva and his takedown defense. He notes Kape's power advantage and finishing potential, predicting a TKO in the second or third round.
Zane picks Kape because he is faster, more powerful, and more dynamic than Almabayev. He notes that Almabayev struggled against a similar counter-puncher in Nicolau, and Kape is a pressure counter-puncher who will maintain distance aggressively, forcing Almabayev to work under pressure. Zane acknowledges the risk of a boring decision loss but believes Kape's speed and power will find openings over five rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 16 of 42 | 38% | 38 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 1 | 22 of 54 | 40% | 55 of 112 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 5:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 12 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 6 of 22 | 27% | 11 of 27 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 21 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 1 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 35 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 16 of 42 | 38% | 8 of 26 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 7 | 12 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 22 of 54 | 40% | 7 of 36 | 8 of 9 | 7 of 9 | 17 of 46 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 5 of 15 | 33% | 1 of 8 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 9 of 21 | 42% | 1 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 10 of 24 | 41% | 6 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 5 | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 6 of 22 | 27% | 1 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 19 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 7 of 11 | 63% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Angelo is very confident in Asu Almabayev, calling the -162 line a bargain. He highlights Nicolau's declining chin and striking vulnerability, while Almabayev is a dominant grappler with flashy striking and phenomenal control on top. He believes Almabayev wins 9 out of 10 times, either by knockout or wrestling dominance. He sees no path to victory for Nicolau if his chin fails or if he gets taken down.
Big Brady leans toward Matheus Nicolau by decision. He notes Almabayev's hype is based on weak competition, while Nicolau has elite takedown defense (93%) and good striking, though he lacks volume and has a questionable chin. He doubts Almabayev can take Nicolau down or knock him out, so he expects Nicolau to stuff takedowns and win a close decision.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nicolau. He emphasizes that Nicolau is a pure counter puncher who is difficult to close down, and that Almabayev's game may not serve him well if he can't get early takedowns. Connor also notes that Almabayev's recent wins are over slower, less focused fighters, and that Nicolau represents a big step up. He doubts Almabayev can knock out Nicolau, as Almabayev rarely finishes fights.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript.
Nicolau is the veteran but will have a hard time against the grappler and relentless style of Almabayev. Almabayev will do a good job closing the distance and keeping Nicolau on the defensive, allowing him to grind out a win on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Nicolau despite acknowledging he gets chinned sometimes. He believes Nicolau has elite takedown defense and will stuff Almabayev's takedowns, pointing out that Almabayev's wins came against lesser competition like Jose Johnson and CJ Vergara. He sees Nicolau as more well-rounded and expects a split decision win.
Zane picks Nicolau because he sees Nicolau as a pure counter puncher who will be difficult for Almabayev to close down. He notes that Almabayev struggles when he can't hit takedowns on demand, as seen in his fight with Jose Johnson where he got reversed and stuck in a triangle. Zane also points out that Nicolau has never been soundly outwrestled in the UFC and that Almabayev's striking is busy but focused entirely on gaining clinches, leaving him vulnerable to intercepting shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 77 of 109 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 4 | 1 | 11:24 |
| Jose Johnson | 0 | 5 of 21 | 23% | 58 of 79 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 12 of 19 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 3:24 |
| Jose Johnson | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 29 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 34 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 4:08 |
| Jose Johnson | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 9 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 8 of 10 | 80% | 31 of 43 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 1 | 3:52 |
| Jose Johnson | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 20 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 20 of 29 | 68% | 12 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 14 |
| Jose Johnson | 5 of 21 | 23% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Johnson | 3 of 11 | 27% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 8 of 12 | 66% | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
| Jose Johnson | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 8 of 10 | 80% | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Jose Johnson | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks Asu confidently, citing his dominant wrestling, cardio, and ability to close distance. He notes Jose Johnson is a long Muay Thai striker with poor takedown defense, and Asu will take him down and control him. He expects Asu to be worth his DraftKings salary due to takedowns and potential finish.
Cody picks Almabayev but is hesitant due to the minus 600 line in a flyweight fight. He notes that Almabayev has good takedowns but poor top control, as he couldn't keep CJ Vergara down. He also highlights Jose Johnson's size (6 feet tall) and activity off his back, which could cause problems. Cody thinks Almabayev will likely win but the price is too high for comfort.
Daniel Vreeland picks Asu Almabayev as the favorite but calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He acknowledges Jose Johnson's striking and scrambling ability but believes Almabayev's takedowns and ground game will be the difference. He notes Johnson gives up takedowns and is not a novice on the mat, but Almabayev should dominate if he gets top position.
Jacob picks Asu, questioning the love for Jose Johnson. He notes Jose was getting rolled by Chad Anheliger and needed a finish to avoid being 0-2. He thinks Asu's wrestling and scrambling are superior, and Jose's length won't help on the ground. He expects Asu to win easily.
Almabayev will drag the fight to the ground, but must be wary of Johnson's knees up the middle and long limbs. He will grind from top position and win on the scorecards. This is a bad stylistic matchup for Johnson making his flyweight debut.
Paul picks Almabayev, noting his well-rounded skills and takedown ability. He points out that Jose Johnson has been taken down frequently in the past and that Almabayev should be able to secure takedowns and control the fight. Paul expects Almabayev to win by decision or submission.
The MMA Guru picks Asu Almabayev, citing his good grappling that hasn't let him down, including dominant wins over Ode' Osbourne and CJ Vergara. He notes Jose Johnson has been taken down by worse grapplers and that Almabayev should be able to keep him down. He also comments on Johnson's extreme weight cut to flyweight, suggesting he will be frail and easy to toss around.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 29 of 53 | 54% | 66 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 44 of 77 | 57% | 85 of 132 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 0 | 0 | 9:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 13 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 16 of 25 | 64% | 23 of 34 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 25 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 36 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:35 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 28 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 26 of 43 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 29 of 53 | 54% | 13 of 32 | 14 of 17 | 2 of 4 | 22 of 46 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
| C.J. Vergara | 44 of 77 | 57% | 22 of 53 | 9 of 11 | 13 of 13 | 23 of 51 | 8 of 10 | 13 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 7 of 14 | 50% | 3 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| C.J. Vergara | 16 of 25 | 64% | 7 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 10 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 8 of 12 | 66% | 5 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| C.J. Vergara | 12 of 21 | 57% | 10 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 10 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 14 of 27 | 51% | 5 of 15 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 13 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| C.J. Vergara | 16 of 31 | 51% | 5 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 9 of 23 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo is confident in Asu Almabayev, citing his wild striking, strong grappling, and cardio. He notes that if Tatu Riera could take down Vergara three times, Almabayev can too. He sees Almabayev as safe to parlay, contrasting him with point fighters he's wary of.
Big Brady picks Asu Almabayev to win by third-round submission. He notes that Almabayev has good grappling and control, and that Vergara has been taken down and submitted in the past. He expects Almabayev to get the fight to the mat and eventually find a submission over 15 minutes.
Cody thinks Almabayev's wrestling will be too much for Vergara, who has poor takedown defense. He expects Almabayev to chain wrestle and control the fight on the ground, possibly securing a submission.
Daniel picks Almabayev, believing he will dictate the pace and win by decision or submission. He notes Vergara is durable and well-rounded but not special anywhere. Daniel was initially low on Almabayev but was impressed by his performance against Ode' Osbourne.
Almabayev is a hot prospect who is very solid all around, but his best work is when he gets fights to the mat. He has impressive chain wrestling, using body locks and trips to drag opponents down. Vergara is a decent striker but lacks the power to keep Almabayev at bay, and his ground game is a weakness. I expect Almabayev to drag this fight to the ground, dominate from top position, and secure another submission victory.
Paul agrees, noting that Vergara has been taken down repeatedly and submitted in the past. He thinks Almabayev's wrestling and submission skills will lead to a finish.
The MMA Guru is confident in Asu Almabayev due to his grappling advantage and C.J. Vergara's unimpressive UFC run. He notes Vergara has struggled against lower-level opponents and was dominated by Tatsuya Taira and Ode' Osbourne. He highlights Almabayev's dominant grappling win over Osbourne and predicts a first-round submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 4 of 18 | 22% | 8 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 26 of 40 | 65% | 52 of 78 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 | 0 | 5:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 35 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:23 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 17 of 26 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 2:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 4 of 18 | 22% | 4 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 26 of 40 | 65% | 17 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 26 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 21 of 31 | 67% | 14 of 24 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 25 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 1 of 10 | 10% | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 5 of 9 | 55% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks Asu Almabayev despite it being his UFC debut, citing his flashy striking and dominant wrestling. He notes that Almabayev lifts opponents off the mat and controls them, which will exhaust Osbourne. He acknowledges Osbourne has power and can wrestle, but thinks he will be outmatched. Angelo has a half-unit bet on Almabayev at -155.
Big Brady likes Almabayev's wrestling and control, noting he is position-over-submission and doesn't make mistakes. He thinks Almabayev will push a wrestling-heavy pace and has a cardio advantage. He acknowledges Osbourne is dangerous off his back and has power, but expects Almabayev to win by decision, staying safe on top.
Cody picks Almabayev by submission at +300, citing his strong takedown entries and transitions to the back. He notes Osbourne's poor takedown defense and history of being submitted. He believes Almabayev will wrestle heavily and eventually find a submission.
Daniel Levi picks Ode' Osbourne, expressing skepticism about Almabayev's level of competition. He notes that Almabayev struggled against aging UFC vets and has a low-output style. Levi believes Osbourne is more active and dangerous on the feet, with good length and submissions off his back. He is concerned about Osbourne's durability and tendency to play off his back, but thinks Osbourne's offensive skills can overcome Almabayev's wrestling.
James thinks the line is too wide favoring Almabayev. He notes Almabayev is a grappler but may not consolidate position for 15 minutes, while Osbourne is a good athlete with a decent sprawl. He also mentions the UFC debut trend often leads to underperformance. He picks Osbourne outright but says he wouldn't go crazy betting him.
Almabayev is a solid Kazakhstani wrestler with a 17-2 record, showing good takedowns and reversals. Osbourne has cardio issues after the first round and is expected to drown under pressure. Unless Osbourne lands a Hail Mary knockout or submission early, Almabayev will finish him in the second or third round.
Paul agrees with Almabayev, citing Osbourne's struggles against grapplers and his poor takedown defense. He notes Almabayev's wrestling and cardio, and expects him to grind out a decision or get a submission. He is confident in the pick despite Almabayev's debut.
The host picks Ode' Osbourne as an underdog, citing his UFC experience against legit competition versus Almabayev's padded resume. He notes Osbourne's southpaw stance, reach advantage, and improved grappling, but acknowledges the risk if Almabayev gets takedowns. He sees value at +148 and believes Osbourne can keep it standing and use his athleticism.
Expert Picks (9)
Angelo picks Asu Almabayev over Alex Perez, calling it an easy win. He criticizes Perez's continued employment and describes Almabayev as a flashy striker and dominant grappler with strong pressure and takedowns. Perez's leg kicks and boxing won't work against Almabayev's aggression. Angelo expects a decision win for Almabayev.
Big Brady leans Asu Almabayev by second-round submission, citing Perez's injury history and submission vulnerabilities. He expects Almabayev to get the fight to the ground and submit Perez, who has tapped out five times. He notes Perez's takedown defense but believes Almabayev will find a way.
Cody picks Alex Perez confidently, noting his world-class skills despite injury history. He believes Perez is the better striker and grappler, and that Almabayev is one-dimensional with low volume. Cody thinks Perez can stuff takedowns and outpoint Almabayev, and the plus money is worth the risk.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Almabayev but emphasizing that if Perez is in shape and healthy, Almabayev doesn't have a game to beat him. He notes Perez's injuries and the fact that he gets caught in subs or blasted by bigger punchers, but doesn't get controlled and out-wrestled. He calls it a good booking.
Lucrative James picks Asu Almabayev but with hesitation. He notes Perez's tendency to give up his back and get submitted, and his recent knee surgery. He believes Almabayev's grappling will be the difference, predicting a submission or close decision. He acknowledges Perez could win on the feet early.
Almabayev has a better gas tank and scrambling ability. Perez is coming off a knee injury and layoff. Almabayev's speed, power, and grappling should overwhelm Perez, leading to a decision win.
Paul picks Alex Perez, citing his superior striking and wrestling. He notes that Almabayev relies on takedowns and has poor striking volume. Paul believes Perez can defend takedowns and win on the feet, and the plus money is attractive.
The MMA Guru picks Asu Almabayev over Alex Perez, citing Almabayev's well-rounded game and ability to mix takedowns with striking. He questions Perez's inactivity and believes Almabayev's pressure will be too much. He predicts a 29-28 decision win.
Zane picks Almabayev on 'vibes' due to Perez's injury history and unreliability. He notes that if Perez is healthy, Almabayev's game may not beat him, but he doesn't trust Perez to hold up. He mentions Almabayev's submission skills but says he's not a submission hunter, and that Perez has been competitive but plagued by injuries.
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