UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape · Dec 13, 2025 · Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape Next Fight
Age 28
Height 6' 5"
Reach 80"
Weight 265 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 32
Height 6' 6"
Reach 81"
Weight 265 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Allen Frye
2.2 SLpM
38.0% Str. Acc.
4.27 SApM
36.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
0.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Guilherme Pat
2.7 SLpM
61.0% Str. Acc.
2.03 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
100.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Allen Frye - Fight History
LOSS vs Guilherme Pat
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape · Dec 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Allen Frye 0 33 of 86 38% 73 of 132 0 of 0 --- 0 0 7:55
Guilherme Pat 0 64 of 100 64% 76 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Allen Frye 0 19 of 49 38% 32 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:18
Guilherme Pat 0 24 of 35 68% 25 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Allen Frye 0 10 of 25 40% 19 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:15
Guilherme Pat 0 13 of 30 43% 17 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
3 Allen Frye 0 4 of 12 33% 22 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:22
Guilherme Pat 0 27 of 35 77% 34 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Allen Frye 33 of 86 38% 17 of 65 12 of 12 4 of 9 19 of 69 14 of 17 0 of 0
Guilherme Pat 64 of 100 64% 53 of 88 8 of 9 3 of 3 54 of 90 10 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Allen Frye 19 of 49 38% 10 of 37 7 of 7 2 of 5 12 of 40 7 of 9 0 of 0
Guilherme Pat 24 of 35 68% 19 of 29 3 of 4 2 of 2 23 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Allen Frye 10 of 25 40% 6 of 19 4 of 4 0 of 2 5 of 19 5 of 6 0 of 0
Guilherme Pat 13 of 30 43% 10 of 27 2 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Allen Frye 4 of 12 33% 1 of 9 1 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0
Guilherme Pat 27 of 35 77% 24 of 32 3 of 3 0 of 0 19 of 27 8 of 8 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Guilherme Pat

Cody leans Pat, citing his experience and durability. He thinks Frye's level of competition is too low and that Pat's reach and ground game will be enough. He is not confident but picks Pat.

"I am going to take the Brazilian Geronimo Pat."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Guilherme Pat

Connor also picks Pat, but is hesitant. He notes that Pat has a higher ceiling and looks like a natural athlete, but Fry has a more credible win over Justin Frazier. He points out that Pat's takedown defense was exposed but he scrambles well. He calls it a fight that should be happening but isn't necessary to see.

"Pat is more raw less focused but probably has a higher ceiling. He also looks like the fucking uber chad meme."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Guilherme Pat

Lucrative James picks Guilherme Pat, citing his superior athleticism, footwork, and striking. However, he notes Pat's lack of killer instinct and questions his mental toughness. He acknowledges the fight is hard to call due to low-level competition and limited tape. He projects Pat as a -170 favorite.

"I'm going to pick Pat in this contest I just feel like he's more athletic I think that he's a better striker from what I've seen."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Guilherme Pat

Paul also leans Pat, citing the Brazilian vs can crusher narrative. He thinks Pat's experience in longer fights gives him an edge if it goes past the first round. He is not confident but picks Pat.

"I want the Brazilian."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Guilherme Pat

Zane picks Pat hesitantly, citing his superior athleticism and scrambling ability. He notes that Pat has a natural athlete's posture and can scramble like a welterweight, while Fry looks like a brawler with limited athletic background. However, he acknowledges that Pat's chin is untested and he leaves himself open defensively.

Odds: Fry opened -250, now +150; Pat opened +210, now -175. Zane says the odds are based on vibes.
"I think i'm going to take you tired just because of that. Yeah, me too. But if fry just goes out there and puts it on him... we have no idea how good pat's chin is."
Guilherme Pat - Fight History
LOSS vs Thomas Petersen
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Apr 04, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Guilherme Pat 0 17 of 31 54% 25 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thomas Petersen 1 28 of 41 68% 164 of 199 0 of 5 0% 0 0 8:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Guilherme Pat 0 8 of 11 72% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thomas Petersen 0 4 of 9 44% 28 of 35 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:03
2 Guilherme Pat 0 7 of 17 41% 12 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thomas Petersen 0 8 of 12 66% 27 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:55
3 Guilherme Pat 0 2 of 3 66% 5 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thomas Petersen 1 16 of 20 80% 109 of 131 0 of 1 0% 0 0 4:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Guilherme Pat 17 of 31 54% 9 of 22 3 of 3 5 of 6 16 of 29 1 of 2 0 of 0
Thomas Petersen 28 of 41 68% 22 of 33 2 of 4 4 of 4 10 of 20 4 of 5 14 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Guilherme Pat 8 of 11 72% 3 of 6 1 of 1 4 of 4 8 of 10 0 of 1 0 of 0
Thomas Petersen 4 of 9 44% 2 of 6 0 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Guilherme Pat 7 of 17 41% 4 of 13 2 of 2 1 of 2 6 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
Thomas Petersen 8 of 12 66% 5 of 8 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Guilherme Pat 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thomas Petersen 16 of 20 80% 15 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 3 14 of 16
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Angelo picks Thomas Petersen despite acknowledging his poor striking, because Petersen is a strong wrestler with good top control. He notes that Guilherme Pat has poor takedown defense and can be held against the cage. Angelo believes Petersen can absorb Pat's strikes, close the distance, and grind out a win on the ground. He cautions that picks are not bets but thinks Petersen can get the takedowns.

"I'm going to pick Thomas to win this fight. Picks are not bets."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Big Brady picks Thomas Petersen but with low confidence. He notes Petersen has good wrestling but is inconsistent. He thinks Petersen needs to wrestle hard for 15 minutes to win, and that Pat is a solid striker but can be controlled. He expects a greasy decision win for Petersen.

Petersen by decision
"I'm going to pick him here to win this fight. I'm going to take him to, you know, cage push here, get some control time against the the cage, mix in the takedowns, and win a very greasy greasy greasy …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Cody picks Petersen, expecting him to use his wrestling to control Pat on the ground. He notes Petersen's wrestling background and Pat's inexperience, and believes Petersen will secure a decision or late finish.

"I'm expecting him to do the right thing. And uh and just keep this guy chest to chest for as long as you can. Kill out the clock, pick up the dub. So it's going to be a Thomas Peterson …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Connor leans toward Peterson, citing his reproducible approach and ability to beat better athletes. He notes Peterson is a reasonable wrestler and better than Fry, which could neutralize Pat. However, he admits Pat could come in much better and that Peterson has been knocked out before, making it a low-confidence pick.

Odds should be dead even; Peterson opened -130, now -113.
"Peterson has a reproducible approach to fights that has allowed him to beat better athletes already."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

James hesitantly picks Thomas Petersen, predicting he will get outskilled early but come back to win via finish in round three or a close decision. He notes Pat's superior athleticism and footwork but criticizes his lack of finishing instinct and tendency to gas. He believes Petersen's wrestling, grit, and size advantage will wear on Pat as the fight progresses. He admits he needs to watch more tape and is not fully confident.

Round 3 finish or decision prediction
"I'm going to say Peterson gets styled on for 7 and 1/2 minutes and then he comes back and gets a finish in round three."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

The host picks Petersen, citing his wrestling, cardio, and top control as kryptonite to Pat's power. He notes Pat's lackluster UFC debut and reliance on power, while Petersen has better grappling and gas tank. However, he has mediocre confidence due to the possibility of Pat landing a big shot early. He predicts Petersen by decision.

Petersen by decision
"I like Peterson here. I'll I'll I'll muzzle my confidence a bit... I think he wins this fight."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Paul leans towards Petersen, noting his wrestling advantage and Pat's struggles against cage pressure. He expects Petersen to grind out a win, though he's not fully confident.

"Thomas Peterson, lock of the century. Um, kidding, but he should be able to get to the hips."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Thomas Petersen

The MMA Guru picks Thomas Petersen, citing his crafty wrestling and size advantage. He notes that Guilherme Pat was held against the cage by a lesser opponent and that Petersen has good boxing and grappling. He seems somewhat uncertain but leans towards Petersen.

"I'm going to go Thomas Peterson, I think. I'm going to go with Thomas Peterson because you know what? He actually does have a crafty wrestling game."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Guilherme Pat

Zane picks Pat but is hesitant, noting that Pat lands bigger shots but gets mashed on the cage. He sees Pat as the better athlete and believes he could come in improved, but acknowledges Peterson's reproducible approach and wrestling advantage. The fight is likely a slog with Pat winning rounds on the feet but losing time in clinch.

Odds should be dead even; Pat opened +110, now -107; Peterson opened -130, now -113.
"I'll take Pat too, but this fight sucks... Pat lands the bigger shots in every round and then just gets mashed on the cage for three minutes per round."
WIN vs Allen Frye
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape · Dec 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Allen Frye 0 33 of 86 38% 73 of 132 0 of 0 --- 0 0 7:55
Guilherme Pat 0 64 of 100 64% 76 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Allen Frye 0 19 of 49 38% 32 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:18
Guilherme Pat 0 24 of 35 68% 25 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Allen Frye 0 10 of 25 40% 19 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:15
Guilherme Pat 0 13 of 30 43% 17 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
3 Allen Frye 0 4 of 12 33% 22 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:22
Guilherme Pat 0 27 of 35 77% 34 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Allen Frye 33 of 86 38% 17 of 65 12 of 12 4 of 9 19 of 69 14 of 17 0 of 0
Guilherme Pat 64 of 100 64% 53 of 88 8 of 9 3 of 3 54 of 90 10 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Allen Frye 19 of 49 38% 10 of 37 7 of 7 2 of 5 12 of 40 7 of 9 0 of 0
Guilherme Pat 24 of 35 68% 19 of 29 3 of 4 2 of 2 23 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Allen Frye 10 of 25 40% 6 of 19 4 of 4 0 of 2 5 of 19 5 of 6 0 of 0
Guilherme Pat 13 of 30 43% 10 of 27 2 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Allen Frye 4 of 12 33% 1 of 9 1 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0
Guilherme Pat 27 of 35 77% 24 of 32 3 of 3 0 of 0 19 of 27 8 of 8 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Guilherme Pat

Cody leans Pat, citing his experience and durability. He thinks Frye's level of competition is too low and that Pat's reach and ground game will be enough. He is not confident but picks Pat.

"I am going to take the Brazilian Geronimo Pat."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Guilherme Pat

Connor also picks Pat, but is hesitant. He notes that Pat has a higher ceiling and looks like a natural athlete, but Fry has a more credible win over Justin Frazier. He points out that Pat's takedown defense was exposed but he scrambles well. He calls it a fight that should be happening but isn't necessary to see.

"Pat is more raw less focused but probably has a higher ceiling. He also looks like the fucking uber chad meme."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Guilherme Pat

Lucrative James picks Guilherme Pat, citing his superior athleticism, footwork, and striking. However, he notes Pat's lack of killer instinct and questions his mental toughness. He acknowledges the fight is hard to call due to low-level competition and limited tape. He projects Pat as a -170 favorite.

"I'm going to pick Pat in this contest I just feel like he's more athletic I think that he's a better striker from what I've seen."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Guilherme Pat

Paul also leans Pat, citing the Brazilian vs can crusher narrative. He thinks Pat's experience in longer fights gives him an edge if it goes past the first round. He is not confident but picks Pat.

"I want the Brazilian."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Guilherme Pat

Zane picks Pat hesitantly, citing his superior athleticism and scrambling ability. He notes that Pat has a natural athlete's posture and can scramble like a welterweight, while Fry looks like a brawler with limited athletic background. However, he acknowledges that Pat's chin is untested and he leaves himself open defensively.

Odds: Fry opened -250, now +150; Pat opened +210, now -175. Zane says the odds are based on vibes.
"I think i'm going to take you tired just because of that. Yeah, me too. But if fry just goes out there and puts it on him... we have no idea how good pat's chin is."
Expert Picks (5)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Guilherme Pat

Cody leans Pat, citing his experience and durability. He thinks Frye's level of competition is too low and that Pat's reach and ground game will be enough. He is not confident but picks Pat.

"I am going to take the Brazilian Geronimo Pat."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Guilherme Pat

Connor also picks Pat, but is hesitant. He notes that Pat has a higher ceiling and looks like a natural athlete, but Fry has a more credible win over Justin Frazier. He points out that Pat's takedown defense was exposed but he scrambles well. He calls it a fight that should be happening but isn't necessary to see.

"Pat is more raw less focused but probably has a higher ceiling. He also looks like the fucking uber chad meme."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Guilherme Pat

Lucrative James picks Guilherme Pat, citing his superior athleticism, footwork, and striking. However, he notes Pat's lack of killer instinct and questions his mental toughness. He acknowledges the fight is hard to call due to low-level competition and limited tape. He projects Pat as a -170 favorite.

"I'm going to pick Pat in this contest I just feel like he's more athletic I think that he's a better striker from what I've seen."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Guilherme Pat

Paul also leans Pat, citing the Brazilian vs can crusher narrative. He thinks Pat's experience in longer fights gives him an edge if it goes past the first round. He is not confident but picks Pat.

"I want the Brazilian."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Guilherme Pat

Zane picks Pat hesitantly, citing his superior athleticism and scrambling ability. He notes that Pat has a natural athlete's posture and can scramble like a welterweight, while Fry looks like a brawler with limited athletic background. However, he acknowledges that Pat's chin is untested and he leaves himself open defensively.

Odds: Fry opened -250, now +150; Pat opened +210, now -175. Zane says the odds are based on vibes.
"I think i'm going to take you tired just because of that. Yeah, me too. But if fry just goes out there and puts it on him... we have no idea how good pat's chin is."