Melissa Croden vs Luana Santos

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Melissa Croden	0	69 of 153	45%	92 of 185	4 of 8	50%	1	0	5:12
Daria Zhelezniakova	0	41 of 118	34%	81 of 163	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Melissa Croden	0	15 of 46	32%	15 of 46	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:16
Daria Zhelezniakova	0	14 of 40	35%	22 of 48	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
2	Melissa Croden	0	27 of 56	48%	31 of 61	1 of 2	50%	0	0	1:39
Daria Zhelezniakova	0	14 of 45	31%	20 of 54	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
3	Melissa Croden	0	27 of 51	52%	46 of 78	3 of 4	75%	1	0	3:17
Daria Zhelezniakova	0	13 of 33	39%	39 of 61	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Melissa Croden	69 of 153	45%	51 of 121	12 of 24	6 of 8	43 of 115	17 of 25	9 of 13
Daria Zhelezniakova	41 of 118	34%	30 of 100	7 of 14	4 of 4	35 of 106	6 of 12	0 of 0

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Melissa Croden	15 of 46	32%	9 of 35	4 of 8	2 of 3	13 of 44	2 of 2	0 of 0
Daria Zhelezniakova	14 of 40	35%	9 of 31	2 of 6	3 of 3	11 of 36	3 of 4	0 of 0
2	Melissa Croden	27 of 56	48%	21 of 44	2 of 7	4 of 5	20 of 43	7 of 13	0 of 0
Daria Zhelezniakova	14 of 45	31%	9 of 37	4 of 7	1 of 1	12 of 39	2 of 6	0 of 0
3	Melissa Croden	27 of 51	52%	21 of 42	6 of 9	0 of 0	10 of 28	8 of 10	9 of 13
Daria Zhelezniakova	13 of 33	39%	12 of 32	1 of 1	0 of 0	12 of 31	1 of 2	0 of 0

Melissa Croden vs. Darya Zhelezniakova
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Croden (-160); Zheleznyakova (+130)

Round 1
With a 100% finish rate still in her pocket, Alberta native Croden (7-3, 1-1 UFC)—quick note to all those who watched the Shillan & Duffy preview show for this one and thought this fight card was going down in the province of Alberta: tonight’s action is in southern Manitoba, just north of the shared border of North Dakota and Minnesota, two provinces to the right of Alberta. Croden will still be the favored athlete in the building of the two, as she faces off Russian striker Zheleznyakova (10-2, 2-1 UFC). The two bantamweights come to blows with referee Jerin Valel calling the shots, and they touch ‘em up before engaging.
It is all about the jab in the early going for the two bantamweights, with the two standing relatively the same size and presenting a similar fist-first style. Jabs lead to follow-ups, which leads to an unexpected trading of leather in the first 30 seconds. Croden thinks twice about throwing caution to the wind to just brawl and resets to work her way forward at her own pace. Zheleznyakova chops at her foe’s leg with a hefty kick and circles away from the power from the Canadian, dodging a head kick and stepping in to strike. Croden drives her away with a quick one-two, and Zheleznyakova still manages to get in her face with a single fist. They crash together and end up clinched, trading knees until they decide against doing this any further. It is not a mirror match, but it is fairly close to that. One after the other, they slug one another in the chops. Croden throws a hard right hand, takes one right back, and is amped up and tries to force “Iron Lady” into a brawl. Zheleznyakova does not oblige her, instead strafing to either side.
Zheleznyakova kicks low to swing high, and she moves all the way around the cage to time her way in with a short flurry. Zheleznyakova gets a front kick through the guard, and when she engages further, Croden ties her up to grapple. Croden bullies the Russian to the fencing, looking perhaps for a body lock. Zheleznyakova keeps circling away to her right, away from Croden’s power, and this includes breaking out of a clinch. Zheleznyakova checks a kick to sling a one-two, and she lets a head kick fly past her harmlessly. Zheleznyakova steps forward to bloody Croden’s nose with a one-two, and her movement is flustering the Canadian. Zheleznyakova tries to engage again in a quick blitz, and Croden stonewalls her and shoves her back. The deliberately paced round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zheleznyakova
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Zheleznyakova
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zheleznyakova

Round 2
Zheleznyakova races out of her corner to engage as the second round kicks off, and she does so right into the fists of her waiting adversary. Croden welcomes this so she can score effectively, forcing Zheleznyakova to retreat very soon after she starts trading. Croden whiffs on four fast punches because Zheleznyakova is already out of range, and she is stuck chasing while blood leaks from her nose. Zheleznyakova keeps moving, racking up plenty of steps while avoiding the worst of what flies her way time and again. Croden walks into the occasional jab from the Russian, who is largely playing an avoidance-first game that may not be the most aesthetically pleasing from a “just bleed” perspective. Nearly a minute goes by without a significant strike landing, and then they crash together and drill one another in the face with a heavy punch. Zheleznyakova tries to put three after it, and Croden has no answers while her face is starting to transform because of the impact of the shots she is absorbing.
Croden runs after the Russian, chasing her around the cage to try to punch her. She does not let Zheleznyakova off the hook, busting her nose open in the midst of her punch salvos. Zheleznyakova turns tail and runs away, forcing Croden to eventually slow Zheleznyakova down by tying her up. Croden looks for a body lock and a trip takedown, but Zheleznyakova is able to stay on her feet. Zheleznyakova breaks free, and she beans the Canadian with a right hand flush on the temple. Both beaks are leaking, and Croden pays it no mind as she rushes forward to attack. Croden nails her foe with two elbows, and Zheleznyakova tries to run away but is trapped. The Russian grabs the fence to prevent a takedown, with Valel screaming at her to knock that off. On her second effort, Croden throws her down and knees her in the face and thigh on the way back up. Croden leans on her opponent, sneaking in elbows. Zheleznyakova pushes her back with her fists, so Croden slaps her in the face with the instep of her foot as the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Croden
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Croden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Croden

Round 3
Croden greets her opponent with raised arms to hug her, and then the last round begins. Zheleznyakova pumps out a one-two that shakes Croden up and instantly re-bloodies her nose again, and she sits in the pocket to jack her in the jaw with a left before circling away. Zheleznyakova bounces her way forward behind her jab, slipping back to dodge every counter. Croden lumbers ahead slinging a left hook, and she shells up to block a one-two but is nailed with three more punches when she tries to clinch. Zheleznyakova breaks off and turns to run and reset on her own terms, but Croden catches up with her and clinches her. Croden stays tight until Zheleznyakova shoves her away and pins her down with a one-two. Zheleznyakova swipes out with subsequent hooks when Croden follows her recklessly, but it is a trap for the Canadian. Croden ducks down to surprise Zheleznyakova with a tackling takedown, and Zheleznyakova grabs the fence to improve her position and stand back up while Croden’s team bellows about the uncalled foul.
In the meantime, Croden starts to hook up a standing arm-triangle choke, and Zheleznyakova tugs with both hands on the fencing to take some of the leverage out of it. Croden topples over with the choke to put Zheleznyakova flat on her back, and she releases the sub to start beating the Russian down with left hands and a questionable knee while Zheleznyakova was standing. Valel calls for a replay due to the strike, and Croden continues pressuring the increasingly bloodied Zheleznyakova in a vicious clinch exchange. Croden frames off with elbows and occasionally slashes them out to damage her opponent, and Zheleznyakova breaks off. Croden runs towards her and tackles her to the floor, climbing directly in mount so she can bash Zheleznyakova with elbows. Zheleznyakova sits up to try to turn things around but only gives her back up. Croden unloads with a final barrage of elbows and fists, but time runs out before she can secure the stoppage she was seeking.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Croden (29-28 Croden)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Croden (29-28 Croden)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Croden (29-28 Croden)

The Official Result
Melissa Croden def. Darya Zheleznyakova via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Melissa Croden

Angelo picks Melissa Croden but is cautious, acknowledging Daria is better than given credit for. He notes Melissa is the more technical striker and physically stronger, with a grappling plan B. He warns that Daria has power and could cause problems if Melissa gets tagged.

"I'm going to pick Melissa here, but I would be very careful because I think Daria is a lot better than people are giving her credit for."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Melissa Croden

Big Brady picks Melissa Croden, emphasizing her nasty top game and clinch work. He criticizes Daria Zhelezniakova's poor ground game and takedown defense, noting she was submitted by Eileen Perez and TKO'd by Mullins. Brady believes if Croden takes the fight to the ground, she will finish with ground and pound, predicting a second-round TKO.

second round TKO

"Give me Melissa Croden to win. I'll take Melissa Croden to win by second round TKO."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Melissa Croden

Cody picks Melissa Croden, citing her ability to mix in takedowns and the Canadian crowd support. He notes that both fighters are similar but Croden may edge it with wrestling and home advantage. He expects a close decision.

split decision prop

"I got Croin, but it's another fight that I would not be surprised to hear judge one scores it, judge two scores it, and then the judge three is the deciding factor."

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Apr 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Melissa Croden

Connor picks Croden because she is more composed and determined than Zhelezniakova, who is a steady pot-shotter without the footwork or wrestling defense to stop a determined opponent. He notes that Croden can walk into strikes but isn't deterred, and her physicality should overwhelm Zhelezniakova if she fights smart.

Croden opened at -150, now -153; Zhelezniakova opened at +130, now +133

"Croton running at her for takedowns might work. Probably."

MMA Vivisection

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Melissa Croden

James picks Melissa Croden to win via round three TKO. He expects Croden to weather early storms and take over late with her pressure and wrestling. He notes Zhelezniakova's camp issues and poor ground game.

"Melissa Cronin to win in round three is my official prediction."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Melissa Croden

The host expects Croden to be competitive in the striking but thinks she will clinch up, take the fight to the ground, and look for a submission. He highlights Croden's physicality and BJJ brown belt, and believes Zhelezniakova struggles against heavy grapplers. He recommends a sprinkle on the submission prop at plus 625.

Croden by submission at +625

"I think it's just a matter of time before Croden gets to a spot where she can threaten with the submission, which currently as of right now on BetOnline sits around plus 625."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Melissa Croden

Paul also leans towards Croden, expecting a close decision. He notes that Daria tends to bleed and that Croden may benefit from the judges. He likes the split decision prop.

split decision prop

"Big- time splitty possibilities fight ends in split decision plus 500. Croin by split or majority decision plus 950."

Bookie Beatdown

Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Apr 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Melissa Croden

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Croden is like a less skilled version of Jasmine Jasudavicius but still knows how to implement her game. He points out that Zhelezniakova is a steady pot-shotter who lacks the tools to prevent a determined opponent from taking her out of her game, and Croden's physicality should be enough.

Croden opened at -150, now -153; Zhelezniakova opened at +130, now +133

"Croton running at her for takedowns might work. Probably."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Luana Santos

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape · Dec 13, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Melissa Croden	0	22 of 74	29%	56 of 109	0 of 1	0%	0	1	0:44
Luana Santos	0	12 of 24	50%	93 of 110	3 of 7	42%	1	0	9:21

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Melissa Croden	7 of 27	25%	21 of 41	0 of 1	0%	0	1	0:44
1	Luana Santos	10 of 13	76%	33 of 37	1 of 3	33%	0	0	1:51
2	Melissa Croden	10 of 21	47%	30 of 42	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
2	Luana Santos	2 of 8	25%	14 of 23	1 of 2	50%	1	0	3:41
3	Melissa Croden	5 of 26	19%	5 of 26	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
3	Luana Santos	0 of 3	0%	46 of 50	1 of 2	50%	0	0	3:49

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Melissa Croden	22 of 74	29%	9 of 53	7 of 8	6 of 13	18 of 69	4 of 5	0 of 0
Luana Santos	12 of 24	50%	6 of 16	4 of 5	2 of 3	10 of 20	2 of 3	0 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Melissa Croden	7 of 27	25%	1 of 17	4 of 5	2 of 5	4 of 23	3 of 4	0 of 0
1	Luana Santos	10 of 13	76%	5 of 7	3 of 4	2 of 2	8 of 10	2 of 3	0 of 0
2	Melissa Croden	10 of 21	47%	6 of 14	2 of 2	2 of 5	9 of 20	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Luana Santos	2 of 8	25%	1 of 6	1 of 1	0 of 1	2 of 7	0 of 0	0 of 1
3	Melissa Croden	5 of 26	19%	2 of 22	1 of 1	2 of 3	5 of 26	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Luana Santos	0 of 3	0%	0 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Melissa Croden vs. Luana Santos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Odds: Santos (-130); Croden (+110)

Round 1
Making a stop off in the women’s bantamweight division, attention shifts to an interesting stylistic clash pitting a striker against a lady who likes to submit opponents by any means necessary. Santos (9-2, 4-1 UFC) at 25 years of age will clock in significantly younger than 34-year-old Canuck Croden (7-2, 1-0 UFC), and perhaps because of this, the odds are slightly in the Brazilian’s favor. Taking charge of this 135-pound affair will be referee Kerry Hatley, who stands back to let the two bump fists.
The ladies stay at kickboxing range to start the fight, taking turns to land strikes on one another. Santos loops her left hook at her opponent several times, marking up Croden’s nose in the first minute of the match. Croden sticks her back with straight lefts and is prepared to stuff a takedown shot, doing so when Santos shoots. Santos bull-rushes her and tackles her to the ground with a partial head-and-arm throw, and she lands in scarf hold position with her left arm wrapped around the Canadian’s neck. With her free right hand, Santos smacks Croden in the forehead repeatedly. Croden tries to muscle her way out of the position, and Hatley warns Santos for grabbing the glove to keep her foe grounded.
Slowly and incredibly smoothly, Croden slips her neck out of danger, sliding around to Santos’ back. Santos walks off the fence to get back to her feet, and she gets out of the tie-up and walks into a body kick. The Brazilian books it towards her adversary, latching onto a clinch with hopes of chaining it into a body lock. Santos stays pressed onto Croden, nullifying her and peppering her with the occasional elbow. Croden turns her about and knees her back much harder, spamming them to the midsection until she considers her own single-leg effort at the 10-second clapper. She does not get it as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Santos

Round 2
They clap hands to start off the second stanza, and Croden pops forward to get off a quick calf kick. Croden jabs and sways to avoid a counter, but Santos steps forward and tags her with a right hand. When Santos is about to spin for something, Croden pushes out a front kick that disrupts it entirely. Santos settles herself and dodges a high kick, but there is something that Croden likes about that particular strike because she fires it off a few more times to bang into Santos’ raised guard. Santos is sick of dealing with those kicks, so she walks her down and bullies her into a clinch. Croden frames off with elbows to the forehead, and she thwarts the first takedown effort from the Brazilian in the process. Santos manages to hurl Croden arse-over-tea-kettle to plant the Canadian flat on her back, and she climbs into top position.
Croden locks down her foe by hooking her arm around Santos’ preventing her from advancing or getting off any noteworthy offense. Santos methodically climbs through into half guard, but the butterfly hooks from Croden bring her back into the guard. Santos prefers to smother rather than strike, while Croden is looking for any small opportunity to do something, anything, from her back. Croden’s elbows may be the most effective strikes since the fight went horizontal, and Santos presses tightly chest-to-chest until Croden looks for a body triangle and push off to stand. Santos drops back and snatches up a heel hook, but she does not have her legs wrapped above the knee, so there is no tight submission in play. The grueling round ends in this position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Santos

Round 3
One final high-five from the bantamweights kicks off the last round, with Croden slowly advancing towards her opponent without getting reckless. Croden flashes her jab and pitches a low kick that cannot get grabbed, and suddenly switches stances to let fly a lead-leg high kick. Santos parries it and clinches, and her first effort for an outside trip fails. Croden muscles her way off the fence, and she walks the Brazilian down and lays into her with a line of punches and a few low kicks. The first counter trip from Santos comes up short, but her second, another scarf hold-slash-head-and-arm throw puts Croden feebly on her back. Santos clings to the scarf hold position, ignoring Croden’s legs bucking behind her while she imposes her weight to crush on Croden’s face and neck.
Santos paws a few meaningless punches off the forehead that are more like tapping her on the head than actually intent on causing damage, and Croden’s bucks and kicks with all her might. Santos continues leaning on Croden’s face, doing practically zero damage but racking up control time. It is a miserable round to watch, and likely even worse for the hapless Croden. Before time runs out, Santos sits up and lifts an arm to scream to the crowd about her impending victory. When the 15-minute contest does mercifully conclude, Santos shouts and celebrates as if she just won the Super Bowl.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Santos (30-27 Santos)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Santos (30-27 Santos)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Santos (30-27 Santos)

The Official Result
Luana Santos def. Melissa Croden via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Cody leans Santos, citing her youth and improvements. He thinks her takedown defense and striking are better, but acknowledges Croden's strength. He is not confident and calls it a pass, but picks Santos for the show.

"I'm going to take Luana Santos."

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Luana Santos

Connor agrees with Santos, citing her youth (25) and potential. He notes that Croden looked robotic but dedicated in her last win, but Santos has more dynamic entries and takedowns. He believes Santos can surprise Croden early.

"I think I probably have to pick Santos. She seems like she has some dynamic entries and takedowns."

MMA Vivisection

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Paul confidently picks Santos, citing the Brazilian vs Canadian narrative and Santos's superior grappling. He notes Croden's takedown defense issues and thinks Santos will control the fight.

"Luana Santos is the pick. Easy."

Bookie Beatdown

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Luana Santos

Zane picks Santos, noting her dynamic entries and takedowns. He contrasts her quick start against Lisboa with Croden's slow start in the same matchup. He believes Santos can take over early before Croden warms up. He also notes that Croden is 34 and unlikely to improve significantly.

Odds: Santos opened -150, now -125; Croden opened +130, now +105. Zane thinks Santos deserves more love.

"Santos went out there and just immediately started dominating in her fight at lisboa. So yeah, santos is the pick."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Tainara Lisboa

KO R3 4:32 · UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen · Oct 18, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Melissa Croden	1	99 of 175	56%	148 of 230	2 of 3	66%	0	0	5:05
Tainara Lisboa	0	42 of 92	45%	63 of 115	2 of 8	25%	0	0	2:19

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Melissa Croden	0	27 of 57	47%	35 of 66	0 of 0	---	0:13
1	Tainara Lisboa	0	25 of 56	44%	34 of 66	0 of 1	0%	1:04
2	Melissa Croden	1	33 of 57	57%	58 of 83	1 of 1	100%	1:45
2	Tainara Lisboa	0	13 of 26	50%	21 of 34	1 of 2	50%	0:52
3	Melissa Croden	0	39 of 61	63%	55 of 81	1 of 2	50%	3:07
3	Tainara Lisboa	0	4 of 10	40%	8 of 15	1 of 5	20%	0:23

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Melissa Croden	99 of 175	56%	74 of 141	12 of 16	13 of 18	57 of 108	13 of 20	29 of 47
Tainara Lisboa	42 of 92	45%	23 of 70	18 of 21	1 of 1	23 of 70	19 of 22	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Melissa Croden	27 of 57	47%	16 of 41	5 of 7	6 of 9	26 of 53	1 of 4	0 of 0
1	Tainara Lisboa	25 of 56	44%	13 of 43	11 of 12	1 of 1	17 of 48	8 of 8	0 of 0
2	Melissa Croden	33 of 57	57%	23 of 45	6 of 8	4 of 4	21 of 36	7 of 10	5 of 11
2	Tainara Lisboa	13 of 26	50%	7 of 19	6 of 7	0 of 0	5 of 17	8 of 9	0 of 0
3	Melissa Croden	39 of 61	63%	35 of 55	1 of 1	3 of 5	10 of 19	5 of 6	24 of 36
3	Tainara Lisboa	4 of 10	40%	3 of 8	1 of 2	0 of 0	1 of 5	3 of 5	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Melissa Croden vs. Tainara Lisboa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Odds: Lisboa (-125); Croden (+105)

Round 1
For the past two years, the UFC has shipped up to Canada twice. This is the latter trip, a Fight Night in Vancouver, and it is a bit of a mixed bag. The final seven (with an asterisk) fights on the lineup will feature a Canadian against a foreign adversary, as is the custom for the promotion as of late to set up a plethora of local competitors against those from another country. Recently, the home country fighters have fared well, but the numbers may not be on their side tonight. Of the 26 athletes plying their trades tonight, 16 of them lost their last bout while four are on losing streaks. Twelve combatants hold UFC records of .500 or lower, although there are a pair of newcomers to the promotion on the billing including one in the curtain jerker here. At 135 pounds, “Scare” Croden (6-2, 0-0 UFC)—as far as name-based nicknames go, this is a good one—makes her first walk to the cage on home soil against Brazil’s Lisboa (7-3, 2-1 UFC). The two ladies will be joined in the cage by referee John Cooper, who steps back as the two clap hands together. It’s showtime.
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After a brief feeling-out process, the Canadian starts work on the leg of the “Thai Panther.” She lands kicks on the inside and out, and Lisboa fires back with a short, crisp combination of punches. Croden flicks out a jab and tosses a low kick behind it, and once more, Lisboa is ready for the counters. Croden chambers and releases a thudding body kick, and Lisboa catches it and smacks her in the face before releasing it. Croden rushes forward into a pair of knees, clinching up but ultimately getting bullied to the wall by the Brazilian. The two stall out, and the crowd already is showering the two with boos less than two minutes in. It could be because the Canadian’s back is to the wall, and not based on a relative lack of activity. Lisboa forces the break with an elbow, and she slips back and connects with a stern calf kick. Croden ducks down and lets go with a body kick, and the punches from the Brazilian whiz past her.
Croden slowly maneuvers her way forward, and Lisboa consistently connects with three or four punches every time she gets off. They clinch, and the fans start booing until the Canadian turns her foe around. They score short clinch strikes, and Lisboa lashes out with an elbow to break and slash open a cut under the local lady’s left eye. A Croden push kick intercepts a spinning Lisboa, and when Lisboa settles down, Croden jabs her in the face and rings her bell. Lisboa has to charge in to clinch and get her bearings, and Croden shoves her off and races in behind a pair of punches. Croden slips and moves a trio of punches to work her jab in, and her low kick does some work when Lisboa sits down on a hard right hand. When Croden tosses a naked body kick, Lisboa belts her in the nose with a right hand that opens up the Canadian’s nose. Lisboa stings her with a one-two, and Croden throws back recklessly. Lisboa stands her up, and although she eats a straight right on the way out, she lands the heavier of the two as the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lisboa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lisboa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Lisboa

Round 2
The ladies touch ‘em up to start off the second stanza, and Lisboa takes to the center of the cage while Croden gets behind her jab. Lisboa throws caution to the wind and strings together a few punches that open up Croden’s nose again, and the leaking Canadian’s philtrum and mouth matches her red fight attire. Lisboa initiates the clinch and works the body with knees, and she trips her opponent and lands on top for a second. Croden quickly wall-walks her way upright and breaks free, and the blood is flowing out of her nostrils. Croden reaches forward and gets caught, and she calms herself and looses a head kick that smacks the Brazilian upside the head. Lisboa punches her way into a tie-up, and the crowd noise comes and goes in waves in support or disappointment depending on how the Canadian is faring—there are a lot of fans in the building for the first fight of the night.
Croden uses her opponent’s momentum against her, tripping Lisboa to her seat, although she cannot keep her there for long. Croden gets in close, and she manages to trip out Lisboa a second time. This time, she lands on top and starts bashing the Brazilian with a stream of right hands. Lisboa fights to her feet while under fire, and Croden is not about to let her off the hook and keeps working her over. When Lisboa splits, “Scare” puts a scare into her by charging with her arms extended. Croden strings punches into a low kick, and suddenly Lisboa does not seem to know what to do. The newcomer collides into her foe with her fists, knocking Lisboa to her seat. Lisboa lands on her back and sets up an armbar, so Croden calmly responds with knees to the shoulder until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Croden
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Croden
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Croden

Round 3
Croden is fired up to start off the last round, and the fans feed her with energy as every time she lands, they cheer. Croden sticks and moves, potshotting Lisboa and getting out of harm’s way in time. Croden lunges in with three or four punches, and Lisboa’s counters hit nothing but air. Croden pounds her foe’s front leg, and Lisboa responds with a full-throated double-leg takedown attempt. The Brazilian completes it, but after about three seconds, Croden is back upright and turning Lisboa to her back on the chain links. A level change from Lisboa is answered by Croden lowering herself down and muscling “Thai Panther” to the floor through sheer force of will. Lisboa hunts for a sweep, so Croden replies with a cruel can opener on the back of the neck. Lisboa throws her legs up and rolls for an armbar, but she turns too far and gives Croden the opportunity to counter her with an irritating triangle choke position.
Croden decides to stand up, lording over Lisboa and pushing her legs out of the way to reclaim top position. When Lisboa turns to her knees in hopes of standing, Croden bashes her repeatedly in the side of the dome. Lisboa desperately looks for an armbar or something off her back, but the large Canadian pushes through it all without effort and climbs into half guard. The punches and elbows from Croden briefly open the guard up, but she decides not to take it and instead uses her weight and pressure to keep Lisboa on her back. Croden clubs Lisboa with ground strikes, and Lisboa somehow manages to stand up despite taking all that damage. Croden walks her down, busting her in the chops and not letting her have a moment to breathe. Lisboa wilts, falling to her back while under attack, and Cooper knows that she is about out of this fight. “Scare” Croden puts the hurt on Lisboa with high-amplitude hammerfists, and as she keeps pounding on the Brazilian like a drum, Cooper has no choice but to step in. Just like that, Canadians are ahead tonight, with Croden prevailing in her promotional debut by handing the 34-year-old her first knockout loss.

The Official Result
Melissa Croden def. Tainara Lisboa R3 4:32 via TKO (Punches)

Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Angelo discusses both fighters but does not make a clear pick. He notes that Iasmin Lucindo (the originally scheduled opponent) is a decent striker with takedown defense issues, and Melissa Croden is a tough striker making her UFC debut. He says he will fade both fighters for fantasy purposes, indicating no strong lean either way.

"I'm probably going to fade her as a UFC debut. I'm also going to fade Iasmin Lucindo... So I'm going to fade them both."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Melissa Croden

Big Brady likes Melissa Croden's toughness and forward pressure. He notes she is strong in the clinch, has sneaky grappling, and good ground and pound. He is not impressed by Tainara Lisboa's striking and thinks Croden can push her against the cage and potentially finish. He prefers Croden at the underdog price but still picks her to win by decision.

"I am liking Croin here. I liked her much better at an underdog price tag, but I think people are kind of seeing what I'm seeing... give me Melissa Croin. I'll take her to win this fight by decision."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Tainara Lisboa

Cody picks Lisboa, citing her striking advantage and experience. He notes Croden has retired twice and is making her UFC debut at 34. Lisboa has fought better competition. Cody expects Lisboa to win by decision or late stoppage.

"I decided to go the other way and go Liz Boa, but I got nothing really behind it."

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Melissa Croden

Connor picks Croden, noting her good directional game and ability to clinch and be violent. He points out that Lisboa has poor footwork and distance management, making her vulnerable to Croden's clinch entries. Connor believes Croden will be able to crash in at will and dominate in the clinch.

Croden opened +235, now -122; Lisboa opened -275, now +102. Connor is glad the odds are moving in the right direction.

"I have to take rodent. That's really it."

MMA Vivisection

Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Melissa Croden

James sees value on Croden as an underdog, noting her striking skills and potential grappling advantage if Lisboa shoots takedowns. He worries about Croden's boxing defense but believes the Canadian crowd could help in a close decision. James predicts a close decision win for Croden.

"I'm gonna pick Melissa Cronin in this fight in a very close fight. I'm going to say it goes to a decision. I'm going to say it's a close decision."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Melissa Croden

The host expects Croden to make an emphatic debut, utilizing her physicality, top control, and Muay Thai against the cage. He believes she will be far stronger than Lisboa and will grind out a finish in the second or third round.

finish in round 2 or 3

"I think this will be an emphatic statement making debut for Croin who I think who can utilize her physicality, top control, and even her Muay Thai against the cage."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Melissa Croden

Paul leans Croden, citing her size and clinch work. He notes she can control the fight against the cage. However, he has low conviction and says he'll wait for weigh-ins.

"I'm leaning Croin."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Oct 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Tainara Lisboa

The MMA Guru picks Tainara Lisboa (referred to as Taila Santos) over Melissa Croden. He notes that Lisboa is a kickboxer with decent submission wins, while Croden has fought lesser competition. He acknowledges Lisboa's losses but justifies them by pointing to her experience against top fighters like Valentina Shevchenko in kickboxing. He leans towards Lisboa but admits there's not much to go off.

"I'm going to go with Taila Santos. She was a kickboxer, but she's also got some decent submission wins against some okay opponents."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Melissa Croden

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Croden. He notes that Croden knows what she wants to do (clinch and punish) and that Lisboa cannot get out of the way. Zane expects Croden to achieve clinches easily and be violent from there.

"Same. She's got a good directional game. She knows what she's aiming for."

MMA Vivisection

Luana Santos - Fight History

SCHED vs Karol Rosa

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · Jun 20, 2026

WIN vs Melissa Croden

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape · Dec 13, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Melissa Croden	0	22 of 74	29%	56 of 109	0 of 1	0%	0	1	0:44
Luana Santos	0	12 of 24	50%	93 of 110	3 of 7	42%	1	0	9:21

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Melissa Croden	7 of 27	25%	21 of 41	0 of 1	0%	0	1	0:44
1	Luana Santos	10 of 13	76%	33 of 37	1 of 3	33%	0	0	1:51
2	Melissa Croden	10 of 21	47%	30 of 42	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
2	Luana Santos	2 of 8	25%	14 of 23	1 of 2	50%	1	0	3:41
3	Melissa Croden	5 of 26	19%	5 of 26	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
3	Luana Santos	0 of 3	0%	46 of 50	1 of 2	50%	0	0	3:49

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Melissa Croden	22 of 74	29%	9 of 53	7 of 8	6 of 13	18 of 69	4 of 5	0 of 0
Luana Santos	12 of 24	50%	6 of 16	4 of 5	2 of 3	10 of 20	2 of 3	0 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Melissa Croden	7 of 27	25%	1 of 17	4 of 5	2 of 5	4 of 23	3 of 4	0 of 0
1	Luana Santos	10 of 13	76%	5 of 7	3 of 4	2 of 2	8 of 10	2 of 3	0 of 0
2	Melissa Croden	10 of 21	47%	6 of 14	2 of 2	2 of 5	9 of 20	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Luana Santos	2 of 8	25%	1 of 6	1 of 1	0 of 1	2 of 7	0 of 0	0 of 1
3	Melissa Croden	5 of 26	19%	2 of 22	1 of 1	2 of 3	5 of 26	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Luana Santos	0 of 3	0%	0 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Luana Santos

"I'm going to take Luana Santos."

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Luana Santos

"I think I probably have to pick Santos. She seems like she has some dynamic entries and takedowns."

MMA Vivisection

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Paul confidently picks Santos, citing the Brazilian vs Canadian narrative and Santos's superior grappling. He notes Croden's takedown defense issues and thinks Santos will control the fight.

"Luana Santos is the pick. Easy."

Bookie Beatdown

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Luana Santos

Odds: Santos opened -150, now -125; Croden opened +130, now +105. Zane thinks Santos deserves more love.

"Santos went out there and just immediately started dominating in her fight at lisboa. So yeah, santos is the pick."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Tainara Lisboa

Submission R2 4:59 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Luana Santos	0	15 of 19	78%	50 of 57	2 of 2	100%	1	0	7:57
Tainara Lisboa	0	6 of 34	17%	7 of 35	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Luana Santos	9 of 11	81%	17 of 20	1 of 1	100%	0	3:45
1	Tainara Lisboa	5 of 19	26%	6 of 20	0 of 1	0%	0	0:00
2	Luana Santos	6 of 8	75%	33 of 37	1 of 1	100%	1	4:12
2	Tainara Lisboa	1 of 15	6%	1 of 15	0 of 0	---	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Luana Santos	15 of 19	78%	11 of 15	2 of 2	2 of 2	12 of 16	1 of 1	2 of 2
Tainara Lisboa	6 of 34	17%	3 of 27	1 of 5	2 of 2	6 of 34	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Luana Santos	9 of 11	81%	5 of 7	2 of 2	2 of 2	8 of 10	1 of 1	0 of 0
1	Tainara Lisboa	5 of 19	26%	3 of 17	1 of 1	1 of 1	5 of 19	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Luana Santos	6 of 8	75%	6 of 8	0 of 0	0 of 0	4 of 6	0 of 0	2 of 2
2	Tainara Lisboa	1 of 15	6%	0 of 10	0 of 4	1 of 1	1 of 15	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Luana Santos vs. Tainara Lisboa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Santos (-130), Lisboa (+110)

Round 1
The final match among women comes at the 135-pound division, as Santos (8-2, 3-1 UFC) moves up in weight to challenge “Thai Panther” Lisboa (7-2, 2-0 UFC). The former saw her solid win streak come to a halt last August because of Casey O’Neill, but she can play spoiler to Lisboa and her own five-fight victorious stretch. Referee Herb Dean will be on call for this bantamweight battle, and the countrywomen touch ‘em up before getting down to business. Lisboa measures with her jab right off the bat, pressuring her opponent and throwing a kick at the same time Santos does. They jab at one another; Lisboa catches a kick to counter over the top. Santos sneaks in a left hand, swaying and moving as Lisboa tries to counter. Santos sticks out a front kick too long, but this is intentional as it distracts Lisboa enough and makes her try to throw back. She uses this to set up a takedown, where she bowls Lisboa over and climbs into side control. Santos uses a scarf hold to look to pass to mount, and instead gladly assumes north-south position. Lisboa tries to crawl out the back by throwing her legs up and around the back, but Santos calmly works out of it and puts herself flat in half guard. Lisboa pushes off the cage to try to get to a better position, and Santos is simultaneously looking to step into mount. This results in a stalemate, with little offense coming as Santos would rather take a dominant position. She rolls Lisboa over to try to take her back, but Lisboa calmly works to her knees. When Lisboa reaches her feet, the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Santos

Round 2
While they do touch gloves, Lisboa is rushing forward to get going and try to make up lost ground. She backs Santos off with her jab, and she fakes a knee and scores a body kick with her other leg. Santos times a one-two down the pipe, and she scoots away. When Lisboa sets her feet down to engage, Santos counters her over the top. As Lisboa commits to strikes, a half-hearted front kick from her leaves her wide open to the takedown. Santos gladly accepts this and puts Lisboa on her back, where she is immediately in high side control as she wraps her arms around her foe’s head with a scarf hold. Lisboa tries again to wrap her legs up and around to get the back, but she does not have the same flexibility and energy as she did the last round to get anywhere. Santos holds her down in the scarf hold position, not using it for submission purposes but instead grinding it and just making Lisboa’s life generally miserable. All of Lisboa’s flailing leg movements do nothing to improve her position, as Santos is so high up on her body flattening her out. Every so often, Santos thumps her foe with short right hands, but no blow has any significant impact. Santos considers isolating Lisboa’s right arm, but this allows Lisboa to turn her body. As Lisboa keeps turning, she inadvertently gives up her back, and Santos wraps her legs around the waist and has both hooks in. Santos climbs to maintain partial back control that she uses to slip into full mount, and she drops down a punch or two before suffocating Lisboa further. Santos uses heavy chest pressure to keep Lisboa pinned, but she is not willing to take the risk of posturing up far.
With seconds left on the clock, Santos does not ride it out and instead latches on to a keylock and/or Americana. Lisboa clings to her left arm, which is starting to torque badly as one can imagine tendons and ligaments screaming out from the unusual tension. Santos cranks with all she has, and Lisboa taps out of the sight of Dean and then speaks out.
Dean confirms with her that it was a surrender and separates the two, with Santos notching the buzzer-beating submission that has become a rarity inside the Octagon and even more infrequent among women—remarkably, the first for a female UFC fighter.

The Official Result
Luana Santos def. Tainara Lisboa R2 4:59 via Submission (Keylock)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Tainara Lisboa

Angelo picks Tainara Lisboa, following the public trend as the line moved from Santos being favorite to underdog. He sees it as a 50/50 fight where Lisboa is the better striker and Santos the better grappler. He notes that Santos relies heavily on judo throws and if Lisboa can stay off the cage, she can land the more meaningful strikes. He also suggests parlaying the over 2.5 rounds in this fight with another women's fight.

Angelo suggests parlaying the over 2.5 rounds in this fight with another women's fight.

"Tinara is going to be the pick. Probably lands the more meaningful strikes."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Tainara Lisboa

Big Brady leans with Tainara Lisboa as a dog, noting she is the better striker with solid grappling. He is concerned about Lisboa's injury layoff but thinks if she is healthy, it's a close fight. He picks Lisboa by decision with little confidence.

Lisboa by decision

"I'm going to lean with Lizboa with little to no confidence. ... I'll go Lisboa by decision."

DFS by the Numbers

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Luana Santos

The host agrees with the line moving towards Santos but with not a lot of confidence. He thinks her BJJ black belt and judo background will allow her to get positions on the ground to avoid Lisboa's Muay Thai striking advantage. However, he notes Santos has been flaky in the striking realm and may have trouble if she can't close the gap. He gives her the benefit of the doubt to grind out a decision win.

Santos by decision

"I think her grappling background from her BJJ black belt and her black belt in judo will allow her to get these positions she needs on the ground."

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Luana Santos

The Guru picks Luana Santos but admits he doesn't know why, calling it a guess. He notes Santos is young (25) and lost to Casey O'Neill, while Lisboa barely edged a decision. He predicts a 29-28 decision, possibly with a late submission. He rambles about a dog controversy and seems uncertain.

Santos to land more than 30.5 significant strikes (via Prize Picks)

"I am going to go with Lana Santos, but I'm going to just be real with you guys here. I don't know why."

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Casey O'Neill

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Casey O'Neill	0	83 of 193	43%	113 of 227	0 of 2	0%	1	0	2:21
Luana Santos	0	41 of 97	42%	46 of 102	1 of 5	20%	0	0	2:21

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Casey O'Neill	24 of 54	44%	29 of 59	0 of 1	0%	0	0:00
1	Luana Santos	16 of 34	47%	20 of 38	0 of 0	---	0	1:16
2	Casey O'Neill	25 of 62	40%	28 of 66	0 of 1	0%	0	0:10
2	Luana Santos	12 of 32	37%	13 of 33	1 of 4	25%	0	1:05
3	Casey O'Neill	34 of 77	44%	56 of 102	0 of 0	---	1	2:11
3	Luana Santos	13 of 31	41%	13 of 31	0 of 1	0%	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Casey O'Neill	83 of 193	43%	60 of 163	12 of 19	11 of 11	69 of 177	5 of 7	9 of 9
Luana Santos	41 of 97	42%	26 of 75	10 of 17	5 of 5	41 of 94	0 of 3	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Casey O'Neill	24 of 54	44%	15 of 44	3 of 4	6 of 6	23 of 53	1 of 1	0 of 0
1	Luana Santos	16 of 34	47%	10 of 25	4 of 7	2 of 2	16 of 33	0 of 1	0 of 0
2	Casey O'Neill	25 of 62	40%	19 of 51	4 of 9	2 of 2	21 of 56	4 of 6	0 of 0
2	Luana Santos	12 of 32	37%	7 of 23	4 of 8	1 of 1	12 of 30	0 of 2	0 of 0
3	Casey O'Neill	34 of 77	44%	26 of 68	5 of 6	3 of 3	25 of 68	0 of 0	9 of 9
3	Luana Santos	13 of 31	41%	9 of 27	2 of 2	2 of 2	13 of 31	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Casey O'Neill vs. Luana Santos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Santos (-162), O’Neill (+136)

Round 1
Once an uber-hot prospect at the women’s flyweight division, the excitement and momentum have cooled for O'Neill (9-2, 4-2 UFC), who comes into this fight as the crowd favorite despite her birth country being Scotland. While the Xtreme Couture product has lost her last two, Brazil’s Santos (8-1, 3-0 UFC) is flying high, winner of five straight including three in the Octagon. Taking charge of this bout will be referee Rich Mitchell, and he clocks the ladies in as they opt to touch gloves. O'Neill lashes out with an early low kick and punches her way into range, and she slips back to dodge counterpunches. O'Neill kicks the front leg again, only to be met with a left hook. Santos chips back at the front leg twice, with O'Neill trying to line up a right hand back her direction. Santos holds her arm out and swings with the other behind it, and she kicks and gets thrown to the floor. The two scramble right back to their feet, and Santos holds on with a standing guillotine choke to bully O'Neill to the fence. Santos presses hard against the cage wall, slipping around to take the back and attack a single from behind. O'Neill keeps her balance and knees her foe in the torso a few times, only to be lifted up with responsive knees. O'Neill pushes off of Santos’ face to separate, and she walks Santos down and connects with a trio of punches and a chopping calf kick. Santos clips her with a right hand over the top, and she lands flush with a few punches while O'Neill wants to slug it out with her. Santos kicks the body and scurries away to avoid any counters, and O'Neill marches her down and kicks her front leg. O'Neill wings a right hand, but a straight left is more accurate. O'Neill connects with three punches, forcing Santos to bounce off the wall. They both let their hands go, with O'Neill landing first and harder. O'Neill clubs her opponent with overhand rights as Santos tries to kick, and she gets knocked off-balance but throws back hard to make Santos bounce off the cage wall again. They land at the same time, and O'Neill tries to time one such meeting with a knee. Santos misses a jumping switch kick, and she has a spinning back fist blocked. O'Neill walks Santos down and punches her in the face a few more times until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill

Round 2
Gloves are briefly touched to begin Round 2, and O'Neill is the aggressor right from the start. She lands a right hand and a body kick, and Santos catches the latter and slings O'Neill to the mat. Santos grabs the glove to get up, and she is warned for the foul. O'Neill manages her way back to her feet, and Santos gloms onto her from behind looking to trip or suffocate her opponent. O'Neill twists and turns, but Santos will not give her an inch of space. O'Neill tries to turn the tables and elevate the Brazilian, and her power move results in Santos stumbling, allowing her to get away. O'Neill returns to her stalking pace, landing a right hand and blocking the responses. O'Neill plants three fists on the chin and a leg kick to follow, keeping Santos guessing by mixing up her offense just enough. Santos kicks her in the ribs and strafes to the side, and O'Neill meets her with an overhand right. Santos goes wide with a hook, allowing O'Neill to retaliate with a trio of speedy blows. O'Neill overswings her way into an accidental takedown setup, and she abandons it to knee Santos in the head repeatedly. Santos shells up and gets caught with punches that wrap around her raised guard before she scoots away. O'Neill times a right hand when Santos kicks her, and Santos is striking back but is beaten to the punch time and time again. Santos jabs and parries, trying for a looping right when O'Neill kicks at her but is out of range. Santos lands two punches, hops back and then puts two more punches on the Brazilian’s chin. A clinch results in O'Neill sneaking in a knee, and Santos breaks off before anything else can catch her. Santos lands once, and O'Neill hits her back three times right before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill

Round 3
Fists are touched, and the fight resumes almost exactly where it ended in the last round. O'Neill clubs Santos with a short combination, and Santos tries and fails to get her back. Santos jabs out and is met with counters, and she leaps forward to get off a right hand. The Brazilian jabs the body, and O'Neill walks her down and busts her in the chops with a series of punches. O'Neill loads up on power punches that knock Santos around, but Santos is tough as can be and wears them well. Santos misses with a right hand, allowing O'Neill to counter her with a power right. O'Neill strings together a few punches and a knee, and Santos is the slower of the two and almost never strikes first. O'Neill jabs high, low and then wings a right hand that gets around the guard. O'Neill allows Santos to come to her so she can meet her with harder blows, with effective right hands that continue to find their home. Punches are traded, and Santos suddenly does not like what is happening and she tries to take the fight down with an ill-advised head lock. O'Neill spins her around and counters a twister setup, resulting in her taking the Brazilian’s back with a quick body triangle set up. Santos hand-fights to prevent any choke from coming anywhere close, but she gets softened up with strikes from both sides. Santos is warned for grabbing inside of the glove, and Mitchell pauses the fight to tell her what is not allowed even though fighters are given instructions before every fight. Santos looks upset that she was called on it, and O'Neill hangs on after the restart to continue working. O'Neill wraps a rear-naked choke grip on the jaw and ends up with a face crank, and she thwacks Santos on the kidney with heel kicks until time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill (30-27 O'Neill)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill (30-27 O'Neill)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill (30-27 O'Neill)

The Official Result
Casey O’Neill def. Luana Santos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Angelo picks Luana Santos because of her slick grappling and Judo, which he believes will be too much for Casey O'Neill, who was recently submitted quickly by Ariane Lipski. He notes that defending Judo throws is different from defending cage takedowns, and Santos should be able to get the fight to the ground and control it. He has a half-unit bet on Santos at -140, citing the short notice and travel as reasons for the reduced stake.

Half unit at -140

"I have a half a unit on her at minus 14 the only reason it's a half a unit and not a whole unit is ultimately this is short notice she is traveling to the other side of the world."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Casey O'Neill

Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by decision. He notes O'Neill has good cardio, high output (almost 9 significant strikes per minute), solid wrestling, and a good ground game. He expects Santos to have success early with takedowns, but as the fight goes on, O'Neill's cardio and volume will take over. He also mentions Santos is taking the fight on short notice and is traveling to Australia, while O'Neill is Australian. He acknowledges O'Neill has looked bad in recent fights but believes this is a step down in competition.

decision

"I'm going to go Casey O'Neil here to win this fight and I'm going to take her to win by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Cody highlights Santos' youth, judo black belt, and recent winning streak, while O'Neill has lost two straight and shown poor striking defense and grappling. He notes Santos can take O'Neill down and control her, and that O'Neill lacks power to earn respect. Cody expects Santos to win the first two rounds and coast.

"I gotta go Lana gotta go Lana Santos here"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Daniel Vreeland picks Luana Santos but is not confident, citing O'Neill's volume and tenacity as concerns. He notes that Santos is young and improving, and that O'Neill may be overcorrected in the market after two losses. Vreeland acknowledges the fight is close and that he has no strong read, but leans toward Santos due to recency bias and physical attributes.

"I am picking Lana here but I mean dude I have no idea what's gonna happen in this fight I don't have a confident pick"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Luana Santos

The host leans to Santos, citing her technical advantages and submission threat. He notes O'Neill's wrestling could be a factor, but expects Santos to control positions and potentially submit her. He mentions Santos' submission prop at +600 as a possible nibble, but is cautious due to Santos taking the fight on short notice and traveling.

Santos by submission (+600)

"I still believe she can come out on top and more than likely by submission"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Paul agrees, noting that O'Neill's hype train has derailed after losses to tougher competition. He points out that Santos has legitimate potential, as shown by her takedown of Stephanie Edgar and destruction of Agapova. Paul believes Santos can do whatever she wants in the fight and that O'Neill's volume lacks power.

"Santos is the uh is the sharp side"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Casey O'Neill

The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill over Luana Santos. He initially jokes about picking Santos but settles on O'Neill. He acknowledges O'Neill's losses to Ariane Lipski and Jennifer Maia but notes she has more experience and has been training since those losses. He criticizes Santos' wins over Mariya Agapova (calling her a heroin addict) and Juliana Miller (calling her a can). He is surprised O'Neill is an underdog and takes that value. He predicts a unanimous decision win for O'Neill.

Unanimous decision, surprised she's an underdog

"I'm actually going with Casey O'Neal what are the odds for that fight... Casey O'Neal is an underdog I'm taking that"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Mariya Agapova

Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:27 · UFC on ESPN: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Jul 13, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Luana Santos	0	2 of 4	50%	9 of 12	1 of 1	100%	3	0	2:23
Mariya Agapova	0	3 of 14	21%	20 of 31	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Luana Santos	0	2 of 4	50%	9 of 12	1 of 1	100%	3	0	2:23
1	Mariya Agapova	0	3 of 14	21%	20 of 31	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Luana Santos	2 of 4	50%	2 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0	2 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0
Mariya Agapova	3 of 14	21%	1 of 5	0 of 2	2 of 7	3 of 14	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Luana Santos	2 of 4	50%	2 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0	2 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Mariya Agapova	3 of 14	21%	1 of 5	0 of 2	2 of 7	3 of 14	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Mariya Agapova vs. Luana Santos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Santos (-395), Agapova (+280)

Round 1
Momentum is the name of the game for this upcoming flyweight tilt, as Santos (7-1, 2-0 UFC) has some behind her as the winner of four straight. Her adversary Agapova (10-4, 2-3 UFC) has struggled as of late, dropping two in a row by submission while not competing since September 2022. This classic matchup of Brazil vs. Kazakhstan will receive oversight from referee Joe Coca, and a clap of hands commences it. Agapova looks for strikes well out of range, and Santos reaches her with a body kick. Agapova stays back, leaping forward with a right hand and missing again. Santos closes in and connects with a pair of strikes, and Agapova dances away. Agapova jabs feet away from the target, and Santos strides forward brimming with confidence and decks Agapova with a right hand. Agapova climbs back to her feet, and Santos slings her right back down to the mat with emphasis. The Brazilian commits to an arm-triangle choke as she gets to half guard, and lets it go so she can facilitate a guard pass to the side. Agapova tries to use her legs to trap Santos in something and pull her back, but when this fails, Santos steps over into full mount and goes after an arm-triangle immediately. Santos gets the grip tight, and Agapova signals a thumbs-up and turns to the side to protect herself, all while coughing out her mouthpiece to breathe better. Santos resets and presses down, bailing on it to land a few body shots and then re-fastening the submission. Agapova keeps her mouthpiece barely in her teeth and turns around to get to her knees.
Santos follows her every step of the way and locks up the rear-naked choke in the blink of an eye. Agapova nearly lets her gumshield fall out of her mouth in desperation while fighting the hands, but there is nothing more she can do at this point. Agapova frantically taps
and completely spits her mouthpiece out as she feels consciousness leaving her body, and Coca rushes between them to conclude the fight. Santos jumps away and starts dancing, and the crowd eats it up.

The Official Result
Luana Santos def. Mariya Agapova R1 3:27 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Jul 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Angelo is extremely confident in Luana Santos due to a clear stylistic advantage: Santos has fantastic takedowns while Agapova has poor takedown defense. He expects Santos to grapple heavily and control the fight, similar to her performance against Stephanie Egger. He advises getting bets in early as Santos will likely be a heavy favorite by fight night.

Expects Santos to be minus 500 by fight night; advises to get bets in early.

"Lena Santos has fantastic takedowns Maria agapova has garbage takedown defense it literally is that simple"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Cody picks Santos, citing her superior grappling and youth. He notes Agapova's personal issues, inactivity, and poor cardio. He expects Santos to take Agapova down and submit her, possibly in the first round.

Santos by submission (implied)

"Lana Santos is going to put a beat in onor here."

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Daniel Vreeland picks Luana Santos to win via ground control. He questions Agapova's mental state and ground game, noting that she gives up bad positions on the mat. He thinks Santos will take the fight to the ground and finish. He acknowledges Agapova's danger on the feet but expects Santos to avoid that.

"I'm gonna go with Lana to get this done when it hits the mat."

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Luana Santos

Santos is too chalky but still likely wins. The fight is expected to go over 1.5 rounds and hit the scorecards. Santos will control the matchup, land a few takedowns, but Agapova will show enough resistance to reach a decision. The best attack is Santos by decision.

Santos by decision; over 1.5 rounds

"I expect this fight to go over one and a half rounds and I expect this fight to actually hit the scorecards so I think the best way to attack this matchup is actually taking Santos to win by decision"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Paul picks Santos, citing her grappling advantage and Agapova's questionable preparation. He notes Agapova's long layoff and altitude, and believes Santos will submit her. He suggests betting Santos by submission at plus money.

Santos by submission (implied)

"Luana Santos by submission I wonder what the prop is on that."

Bookie Beatdown

WIN vs Stephanie Egger

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Dec 09, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Luana Santos	0	53 of 104	50%	97 of 161	2 of 4	50%	0	0	7:44
Stephanie Egger	0	44 of 115	38%	112 of 193	1 of 1	100%	0	0	1:06

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Luana Santos	20 of 45	44%	42 of 73	0 of 1	0%	2:34
1	Stephanie Egger	13 of 39	33%	36 of 68	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Luana Santos	28 of 45	62%	34 of 51	1 of 2	50%	2:28
2	Stephanie Egger	20 of 49	40%	37 of 67	0 of 0	---	0:23
3	Luana Santos	5 of 14	35%	21 of 37	1 of 1	100%	2:42
3	Stephanie Egger	11 of 27	40%	39 of 58	1 of 1	100%	0:43

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Luana Santos	53 of 104	50%	20 of 61	22 of 29	11 of 14	50 of 95	3 of 9	0 of 0
Stephanie Egger	44 of 115	38%	31 of 97	13 of 17	0 of 1	29 of 96	15 of 19	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Luana Santos	20 of 45	44%	6 of 25	10 of 14	4 of 6	20 of 44	0 of 1	0 of 0
1	Stephanie Egger	13 of 39	33%	5 of 28	8 of 10	0 of 1	5 of 29	8 of 10	0 of 0
2	Luana Santos	28 of 45	62%	11 of 24	10 of 13	7 of 8	26 of 42	2 of 3	0 of 0
2	Stephanie Egger	20 of 49	40%	19 of 47	1 of 2	0 of 0	18 of 45	2 of 4	0 of 0
3	Luana Santos	5 of 14	35%	3 of 12	2 of 2	0 of 0	4 of 9	1 of 5	0 of 0
3	Stephanie Egger	11 of 27	40%	7 of 22	4 of 5	0 of 0	6 of 22	5 of 5	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Stephanie Egger vs. Luana Santos (139: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Santos (-185), Egger (+154)

Round 1
The final women’s bout on the card comes at a catchweight of 139 pounds, as former flyweight Santos (6-1, 1-0 UFC) tipped the scales three pounds heavy for her bantamweight bout against Egger (8-4, 3-3 UFC). The Swiss woman will come out with a heavier bag of cash than expected, as Santos has surrendered 20% of her fight purse as a result. The cage commander for this clash will be referee Herb Dean. There is an apologetic touch of gloves offered by the heavy woman to get things started, and it is accepted. Santos leads off with rangy, awkward strikes from strange angles. Egger keeps her guard high and parries most of the strikes that come her way, as Santos is overextending and winging strikes from various directions. Santos crowds her way in, throwing a clubbing right hand to get Egger’s attention, and she backs her off with a front kick. Egger shakes it off and plods forward, sticking out a jab and a right hand. Egger reaches out, dings the Brazilian on the cheek, and accidentally hooks her finger into Santos’ top. Dean allows them to reset so there is no wardrobe malfunction, and they return to their tit-for-tat striking exchanges. Egger pushes in and drives a knee to the chest, and Santos stops a throw attempt and turns Egger around. The two trade knees on the inside, and trip attempts fail from both sides. Egger gets a bit of space away from the cage as they continue to knee one another in the belly, and Santos keeps her hands on the Swiss woman to otherwise shut her down. Egger connects with a heel kick to the thigh and knees up the middle hard enough to stun Santos for a second, and she times a knee on the chin when Santos ducks down. The uneventful round ends with the two tied up.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Santos

Round 2
The two clap hands to get the second round started, and Egger paws out a jab shortly thereafter. Santos responds with three leg kicks, and Egger swings so hard that she falls on her hands. Santos cannot capitalize on this mistake, instead backing off to let the Swiss fighter stand back up. Egger slowly plods forward before swinging an overhand right at her foe, and this leads to a clinch to pick up where they left off, only with Egger the one pressing. Santos spins away, but she takes a knee on the break. Santos sticks out a one-two, and a low kick comes after it. Egger catches a front kick and lines up a right hand, and Santos shakes her head and continues throwing. Egger wings reckless punches, and Santos tries and fails to time a trip. The Brazilian settles for pushing Egger against the fence, until she manages to toss Egger to the canvas. Egger stands back up, fighting off hooks that Santos attempts to slide in, but Santos has her gripped from behind. Santos looks to drag Egger down from behind, until she turns to the side and gloms her full body weight on Egger. Egger attempts a Thai plum clinch, but Santos fights off the hands before Egger can knee her on the chin. Santos changes levels, but Egger fights this off and separates. Santos throws several punches and lands one, and Egger awkwardly throws back. Santos gets in two more left hands, and Egger cannot find her way in as Santos pecks at her and jabs her. Egger ignores the blows and chains three strong punches together that get Santos’ attention, leading Santos to force a clinch. Egger hacks with a downward elbow to try for any offense while pinned against the wire, and the round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Egger
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Egger
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Egger

Round 3
There is one final clap of hands to start the round, and Egger pushes on the accelerator and bullies Santos back. Santos reaches with long jabs, and Egger grabs hold of her to knee her twice. The Brazilian takes advantage of this position by hip tossing Egger to the mat, dropping Egger right on her head. Santos looks for a scarf hold from there, but Egger deftly fights it off and forces her way back to the feet. As soon as Egger pushes Santos to the fence, Dean calls them to work. Santos muscles Egger around to press her back against the wall, and she peppers with light knees and foot stomps until Dean asks them for more activity. Santos continues to impose her weight until Dean steps in, and Santos takes a very deep breath. Egger thanks Dean for this by rushing after Santos, and she blasts Santos in the face with a long combination. When Santos walks away, Egger stands still, until the Swiss woman wades back into combat. Santos times this with a level change, and although she cannot get the fight to the mat, she squeezes the aggressive Egger against the cage. Santos knees the thigh and stomps Egger’s foot, and Dean continues to call for more work. With Santos doing nothing, Dean splits them up at the 45-second mark. Egger pushes forward until Santos attempts a takedown. Egger turns the corner and drags Santos to her knees, landing left hands as time ticks off the clock. A few pitter-patter strikes from Egger conclude the lackluster match.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Egger (29-28 Egger)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-10 (29-29)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Egger (29-28 Egger)

The Official Result
Luana Santos def. Stephanie Egger via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Cody picks Luana Santos. He notes that Santos is a much better striker with speed and cardio. He acknowledges Egger's size and grappling advantage but thinks Santos can survive early takedowns and win on the feet. Cody points out that Egger's striking is poor and she gasses. He believes Santos can keep the fight standing and outpoint Egger, or even finish her late.

"I got to stick with Santos"

Bookie Beatdown

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Paul picks Luana Santos. He notes that Santos has a significant striking advantage and Egger's only path is takedowns. Paul points out that Egger doesn't do much with top control and judges don't reward it. He thinks Santos can get back to her feet and outland Egger. Paul is avoiding the 'CF dot model' and going with Santos.

"I am avoiding the CF dot model the pat Mayo special here I'm going with Santos as well"

Bookie Beatdown

WIN vs Juliana Miller

TKO (punches) R1 3:41 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Luana Santos	0	24 of 75	32%	25 of 77	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:29
Juliana Miller	0	63 of 105	60%	64 of 106	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:26

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Luana Santos	0	24 of 75	32%	25 of 77	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:29
1	Juliana Miller	0	63 of 105	60%	64 of 106	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:26

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Luana Santos	24 of 75	32%	15 of 61	9 of 13	0 of 1	18 of 64	6 of 11	0 of 0
Juliana Miller	63 of 105	60%	44 of 82	16 of 20	3 of 3	53 of 88	10 of 17	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Luana Santos	24 of 75	32%	15 of 61	9 of 13	0 of 1	18 of 64	6 of 11	0 of 0
1	Juliana Miller	63 of 105	60%	44 of 82	16 of 20	3 of 3	53 of 88	10 of 17	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Juliana Miller vs. Luana Santos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Santos (-155), Miller (+130)

Round 1
Fight fans have now passed the midpoint of what will be the longest stretch of consecutive UFC weekends, and there are only seven to go including UFC on ESPN 51. This will be the last event in the Apex until its streak-ending Sept. 23 show, and it is certainly a fight card. As mentioned in a previous article, 15 of the 26 fighters tonight are coming in having lost their last bouts, and eight of those have dropped two in a row or more. It all starts with grappler-on-grappler action in the women’s flyweight division, as “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 30 victor Miller (3-2, 1-1 UFC) looks to lift her promotional record above .500. She takes on promotional newcomer Santos (5-1, 0-0 UFC), who made her way to the UFC not through the Contender Series or any of the other feeder programs, but from the LFA. This opening bout draws the assignment of referee Jason Herzog, and it begins without a touch of gloves as Miller charges like a bull. The two ladies immediately start swinging, and Miller snaps the head back with a few heavy blows. Miller’s aggression leads her into a clinch, where she immediately presses onto her opponent while kneeing her in the gut. Santos turns the corner and splits apart, and she resets. Miller walks her down, stutter-stepping her way in and throwing hammers. Santos sits down on a right hand to catch her on the way in, but Miller completely ignores it and keeps on storming forward. Miller puts her hands on Santos’ face, not landing with any individually damaging blow, but getting Santos’ attention. The Brazilian woman steels herself and launches a bomb of a right hand that bangs right into Miller’s temple, rocking “Killer.” Santos does not let her foe off the hook, as she slugs away and even mixes in a head kick as Miller leans her back to the wall to stay upright. Miller leans forward to try to slow things down, and Santos snatches up a guillotine choke that ends up with the two ladies landing on the mat. Santos releases her grip to allow them back to their feet, and she stays right in Miller’s grill throwing hands. Santos belts her foe in the jaw a few times, and Miller wobbles back to the wall and tries to counter but is only flailing. Santos smashes Miller in the face, and Miller reels and is in big trouble. Santos pours it on with fists flying, and she connects repeatedly and does not care about anything Miller gives back to her. Herzog is taking a close eye on the action, and Santos tries to force a stoppage by laying into Miller with everything she has.
The punches keep coming, and Miller drops to a knee and fights her way back up. Miller may be out on her feet, and Santos continues busting her in the chops until Herzog has seen enough.
This is a statement performance for the debuting Santos, who earns her first career knockout in her biggest fight to date. Meanwhile, she also becomes the first fighter to finish the TUF victor as a professional.
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The Official Result
Luana Santos def. Juliana Miller R1 3:41 via TKO (Punches)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Angelo picks Santos confidently, citing her judo background and slick grappling versus Miller's lack of skill and poor takedown defense. He notes Miller was a terrible -450 favorite who couldn't defend takedowns. He already placed a quarter unit at -140 and expects the line to move further.

Already bet 0.25 units at -140

"I got Luana Santos at minus 140 two days ago"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Juliana Miller

Big Brady picks Juliana Miller to win by decision, but is not confident. He notes Miller's terrible striking defense but good grappling. He thinks Santos's head-and-arm throws could be reversed by Miller, leading to back takes. He calls the line a 'massive over correction' and sees Miller as a live dog. However, he admits he doesn't want to bet it.

"oh my gosh I'm taking Juliana Miller am I am I betting it I don't want to but I mean we'll see where this line goes um give me Juliana Miller to win this fight by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Cody picks Santos, citing her judo black belt and solid takedown entries. He criticizes Miller's wrestling and striking, noting she was taken down four times by Veronica Hardy. He thinks Santos can get the fight to the mat and control it. He also notes Santos' only losses are to a high-level grappler (Jenna Bishop). He believes Santos would have won The Ultimate Fighter season if she were on it.

"Luana Santos I think is viable at -160 uh here"

Bookie Beatdown

Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Juliana Miller

James leans toward Miller as a potential underdog, noting Santos didn't look great in her last fight and Miller is gritty. However, he hasn't done full tape and is not confident. He sees possible value on Miller but needs to study more.

"I like Miller a little bit in this matchup... there may be some value on Miller here."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Juliana Miller

Miller is a BJJ black belt who does her best work on the ground, but her striking is lacking. Santos is a newcomer with a BJJ and Judo black belt, but she is not the type of striker that Hardy was, who used lateral movement to avoid takedowns. Miller should be able to drag the fight to the ground and grind out a decision. The recency bias has made Miller a plus 140 dog after being a minus 400 favorite in her last fight, which is a value spot.

Miller by decision

"I'm going to go with Miller to win this fight by decision and take her to kick this card off with an upset"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Paul picks Santos, agreeing that Miller is overrated. He notes Miller's poor wrestling and striking, and that Santos is the better striker and grappler. He thinks Santos' judo will neutralize Miller's wrestling and that Santos can win by decision or submission. He also mentions that the line opened with the wrong fighter favored.

"yes he is the pick so even though I got to pay some steam on it it's just I gotta I gotta do it"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Luana Santos

The MMA Guru picks Luana Santos based on Juliana Miller's poor performance in her last fight, where she showed no skill, bad stand-up, and poor submission attempts. He notes that women's MMA is unpredictable but trusts Santos's age (23) and regional wins. He emphasizes that after watching Miller's last fight, he cannot logically pick her again.

"I'm gonna go with Luana Santos purely because of the fact that I watched Julianna Miller's last fight and um that's all there is to it really"

THE MMA GURU

Expert Picks (4)

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Luana Santos

"I'm going to take Luana Santos."

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Luana Santos

"I think I probably have to pick Santos. She seems like she has some dynamic entries and takedowns."

MMA Vivisection

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Paul confidently picks Santos, citing the Brazilian vs Canadian narrative and Santos's superior grappling. He notes Croden's takedown defense issues and thinks Santos will control the fight.

"Luana Santos is the pick. Easy."

Bookie Beatdown

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Luana Santos

Odds: Santos opened -150, now -125; Croden opened +130, now +105. Zane thinks Santos deserves more love.

"Santos went out there and just immediately started dominating in her fight at lisboa. So yeah, santos is the pick."

MMA Vivisection

Melissa Croden

Luana Santos

Career Averages - Melissa Croden

Career Averages - Luana Santos

Melissa Croden - Fight History

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Luana Santos - Fight History

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Expert Picks (4)