Angelo picks Clayton Carpenter as a dog, citing that Jose Ochoa can be taken down and that Carpenter's aggressive grappling and submission hunting will be effective. He notes that Carpenter is eager to find submissions but sometimes loses position, expecting a back-and-forth fight similar to Ochoa's last fight. He is not confident enough to bet actual money on Carpenter due to concerns about jiu-jitsu control.

Angelo picks Clayton Carpenter, citing his slick grappling, fast pace, and submission hunting. He notes Carpenter's takedowns and scrambling ability. He thinks Carpenter can grind out a win by constantly taking Ochoa down. He dismisses MMA math and says Carpenter has a great chin and cardio. He likes Carpenter if he is a dog.

Big Brady leans Jose Ochoa despite Clayton Carpenter's wrestling advantage. He notes Ochoa's 'shoot to box' style and dangerous striking, expecting him to land bigger shots and do more damage. However, he acknowledges Carpenter could win a decision if he gets multiple takedowns. Brady predicts Ochoa wins by decision, citing his damage output and bigger moments.

Cody picks Carpenter as an underdog, citing his wrestling and grappling skills. He notes Ochoa's takedown defense issues and thinks Carpenter can control the fight on the ground. Cody is not fully confident but likes the plus money.

Connor also picks Ochoa, agreeing that Carpenter's wild style plays into Ochoa's hands. He notes that Ochoa has a real singular skill in striking and has shown maturity in fights, like against Azu Amabayev. Connor thinks Ochoa's problems are about decision-making, which can improve, while Carpenter needs to learn whole new skill sets.

Daniel picks Ochoa, noting that Ochoa is fighting for his contract and has always stood out more than Carpenter. He agrees with Cody that Ochoa's power and striking will be too much for Carpenter's ground game.

Ochoa has advantages everywhere: better striking, better grappling, better submission defense, and durability. Carpenter is flat-footed defensively and not a technical striker; Ochoa's takedown defense is solid (defended 9 of 16 against Almev, 2 of 4 against Duran). Ochoa fights at a high pace and is tough to hold down. Carpenter is a jack of all trades, master of none, and was held down easily by Ulanbekov. Ochoa should outstrike Carpenter and control him on the ground if needed.

Predicted method: KO/TKO Round 2. Ochoa has shown KO power (recent win over Cody Durden) and solid striking defense (60%), while Carpenter has lost two straight and has poor takedown defense (37%). Carpenter's best chance is to grapple, but Ochoa's 59% takedown defense should keep the fight standing. Ochoa's southpaw stance and reach advantage (67" vs 66") could trouble Carpenter. Expect Ochoa to land a knockout or win a competitive decision.

Jacob compares Clayton Carpenter to a 'Temu Cody Steel' and thinks Carpenter is way behind in striking. He believes Ochoa is much better on the feet and that Carpenter's takedowns will stop working as he gets hit. Jacob is confident that Ochoa's striking and takedown defense will lead to a win, possibly similar to the Cody Duran fight.

Lucrative James picks Jose Ochoa because he believes Ochoa's striking is too dynamic and powerful for Clayton Carpenter to handle on the feet. He notes that Carpenter's fight IQ is questionable and he may not grapple enough. He predicts Ochoa wins by knockout, as he expects Carpenter to get taken down but Ochoa to get back up and land big shots.

The host believes Carpenter's wrestling and ability to get to dominant positions will be the difference. He notes that Carpenter has a solid wrestling base and is aggressive in getting takedowns, unlike Ochoa's previous opponent Almeida who was more passive. He expects Carpenter to grind out a decision win, despite Ochoa's submission threats off his back. The host acknowledges Carpenter is on a two-fight losing streak but sees value at plus money.

Paul does not make a clear pick, saying he is not sure about this fight. He does not express a strong opinion.

The MMA Guru picks Jose Ochoa, citing his superior finishing potential and 'savage rating'. He notes Ochoa's impressive win over Cody Yuden and competitive performance against Lona Kavana. He believes Carpenter's grappling won't be enough to control Ochoa, who has good submissions and elbows off his back. On the feet, Ochoa has a massive striking advantage. He predicts a round two or three TKO for Ochoa.

Angelo picks Clayton Carpenter as an underdog, stating he is a little bit better everywhere than Jafel Filho. He highlights Carpenter's wrestling, aggression, and chin, and notes that he expects Carpenter to be the favorite by fight night. He placed a half-unit bet on Carpenter at +103 odds.

Big Brady leans slightly toward Clayton Carpenter, favoring his striking and wrestling, and believes his cardio will hold up better. He notes Jafel Filho is a high-level grappler but worries about his cardio and striking. Brady expects a competitive fight with both having moments, but sees Carpenter winning a close decision. He says he would have liked Carpenter at plus money but is staying away at current odds.

Cody picks Carpenter confidently, citing his athleticism, footwork, and takedown defense. He notes Filho's low output and cardio issues, and believes Carpenter can win by outworking him in later rounds. He expects a decision or late finish.

Lucrative James flips his pick to Clayton Carpenter after initially considering Jafel Filho. He notes that Filho has early-round upside but fades, while Carpenter has better cardio and late-round finishing ability. He expects Carpenter to weather an early storm and win by decision or late finish. He is unconfident due to the fight being a pick'em.

Manpreet is confident in Carpenter, calling minus 125 a steal. He expects Carpenter's wrestling to take over after a competitive first round, leading to a decision win or late finish. He notes Carpenter's high ceiling and favorable matchup against Filho, who gassed against Nascimento.

Paul picks Carpenter but is concerned about fighting in Brazil. He notes Carpenter's superior striking and wrestling, but expects Filho to be dangerous early. He suggests live betting Carpenter after the first round.

Angelo picks Tagir Ulanbekov due to his significant experience advantage (17 fights vs 8) and strong wrestling. He notes that Ulanbekov can be taken down but believes Clayton Carpenter may hesitate, allowing Ulanbekov to impose his game. He warns against betting Ulanbekov at -300, suggesting instead to look for prop bets like Carpenter winning a round.

Cody picks Clayton Carpenter as an underdog, citing Ulanbekov's age (33), inactivity, and injury history. He notes that Ulanbekov has pulled out of seven fights in the UFC and has shown cardio issues. Carpenter is a young, well-rounded prospect with good wrestling and cardio. Cody believes Carpenter can scramble, take Ulanbekov down, and push the pace. He sees value in fading Ulanbekov at flyweight, where the line is too high.

Daniel picks Ulanbekov but is hesitant due to his inactivity and potential weight issues. He notes that Ulanbekov has top-five potential and had a career-best performance against Cody Durden. However, he is concerned that Ulanbekov hasn't fought since 2023 and may have trouble making weight. Daniel thinks Carpenter is a talented young fighter but Ulanbekov is ahead at this point.

Lucrative James does not make a clear winner pick but discusses the over 2.5 rounds prop favorably. He notes both fighters are high-level and unlikely to be finished, though he acknowledges submission upside for Tagir Ulanbekov if he gets the back, and the possibility of a striking exchange leading to a knockout. He leans toward the fight going to decision but does not commit to a side.

The host leans with Ulanbekov because Carpenter is a hot prospect with unknowns in defensive grappling. Ulanbekov may challenge him as no fighter has before. The host expects Ulanbekov to win on the scorecards.

Paul leans Carpenter as a value play. He notes that Ulanbekov's wrestling has not been dominant at flyweight, and he was taken down by Tim Elliott. Carpenter is undefeated and has shown good grappling and cardio. Paul believes if wrestling is negated, the fight is close, and at plus money, Carpenter is worth a shot. He plans to make a play on Carpenter.

Angelo picks Clayton Carpenter, citing his slick grappling and aggressive submission hunting. He notes Carpenter's fast pace and ability to set the tone early, while Lucas Rocha's upright stance makes him vulnerable to takedowns. Angelo believes Carpenter's offensive wrestling will be the deciding factor, as Rocha has shown poor defensive wrestling. He expects Carpenter to win via takedowns and control, calling it a straightforward pick.

Big Brady picks Clayton Carpenter to win by second-round knockout. He likes Carpenter's striking, wrestling, and grappling, and notes he is a high-level black belt. He criticizes Rocha's takedown defense, durability, and tendency to get dropped in fights. Rocha was taken down easily by Bittencourt on the Contender Series before landing a comeback KO. Brady expects Carpenter to dominate and potentially finish, though he acknowledges ring rust could be a factor after a 19-month layoff.

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Rocha's record is built on beating can crushers and that he got knocked cold by some dude. He points out Rocha is only 5'3" and lacks athleticism, making him ripe to be run over by better athletes like Carpenter.

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

Daniel highlights Carpenter's size, durability, and grappling advantage over the smaller Rocha, who is a former strawweight. He notes that Rocha is a slow starter who often gets beaten up early but comes back. Daniel believes Carpenter's physicality will allow him to dominate the first two rounds and win a decision, though a finish wouldn't surprise him.

Carpenter is expected to showcase his grappling dominance against Rocha, who has shown issues dealing with opponents that take his back and control him from that position. Despite Rocha's impressive 17-1 record, Carpenter should grind out the fight and pick up his eighth win in as many fights.

The MMA Guru picks Lucas Rocha over Clayton Carpenter, citing Rocha's higher activity, finishing ability, and experience. He notes that Carpenter has been out for a while, which may indicate injury issues, and that Rocha is a 'dog' with more savagery and switch-hitting ability. He also mentions that shorter flyweights are hard to hold down, which could neutralize Carpenter's technical grappling.

Zane thinks Carpenter will whip Rocha, comparing him to Francis Marshall as a wild, all-offense fighter with no breaks. He notes Rocha got lucky against a glass cannon on the Contender Series and lacks athleticism. Zane believes Carpenter's strength and athleticism will overwhelm Rocha, who seems untrained and self-taught.

Angelo likes Clayton Carpenter's extensive international experience from a young age, his slick grappling, and aggressive submission hunting. He notes that Ronderos has a layoff and shoulder injury, and while Ronderos is a fast-paced striker with solid takedown defense, Carpenter's wrestling and technical striking should be superior. Angelo is surprised the line tightened but remains confident in Carpenter.

Big Brady thinks Carpenter is the better wrestler and grappler, and will get the fight to the mat where he is dangerous. He notes Ronderos has poor takedown defense and has been submitted before. He predicts a second-round submission for Carpenter, but warns against the -275 price.

Cody picks Carpenter but says the line is too big. He notes Ronderos has been off for two years and could have improved, training at a good gym in Las Vegas. He says Carpenter is a fine prospect with wrestling and cardio, but he hasn't been tested and has only faced lower-level competition. He warns that Ronderos is big for flyweight and might miss weight. He says there are enough question marks to cause uncertainty at -300.

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Carpenter has more physicality and is willing to fight hard in scrambles. He points out that Ronderos' wrestling was easily shut down by David Dvorak, and that his win over Eric Shelton was more due to Shelton's passivity. Connor sees Carpenter as the better athlete and believes he can put together strikes and find openings, while Ronderos lacks dexterity. However, he acknowledges the possibility of Ronderos holding Carpenter down.

Jacob agrees Carpenter should be the better fighter but is cautious due to Carpenter's limited pro experience (6-0) and Ronderos' layoff. He notes Ronderos' fight IQ may have improved from coaching, but technique issues remain. Jacob thinks Carpenter has the wrestling and grappling edge and is the more technical striker, but he's not fully confident at -275 and might look for a Monday night play if odds drop.

Carpenter is the better striker and grappler, with superior discipline and scrambling ability. Ronderos is aggressive but reckless, and Carpenter's takedown defense and top control should neutralize him. Expect Carpenter to win a decision after controlling the grappling exchanges.

Paul picks Carpenter but is not confident. He notes Ronderos had a tough UFC debut on short notice against David Dvorak and got choked out. He says he doesn't know what Ronderos is good at. He says Carpenter looked half-decent on Contender Series but he doesn't know what to make of this fight. He says he's picking Carpenter but is more interested in hearing Cody's take.

The MMA Guru picks Clayton Carpenter, citing his superior skill, dangerousness, and technical ability compared to Juancamilo Ronderos. He notes that Ronderos lost badly to David Dvorak and only fought to a split decision with an aging Eric Shelton. He believes Carpenter's stand-up will be the key factor and that Ronderos is not good enough to be in the UFC.