UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield

Angelo is very confident in Andrade, even on short notice. He highlights Andrade's technical improvement in her last fight against Lauren Murphy, where she showed precision rather than just bullying. He believes Andrade's BJJ black belt and experience against top competition will neutralize Blanchfield's grappling. Angelo notes the line moved from -190 to -170 and he placed a two-unit bet at -150. He dismisses comparisons to Valentina Shevchenko's takedowns, noting Shevchenko uses judo while Blanchfield uses wrestling, which Andrade can defend.

Big Brady thinks this is too soon for Blanchfield, who has only beaten lower-level competition like Molly McCann. He notes that Andrade only gets dominated by elite grapplers like Valentina Shevchenko, and Blanchfield is not on that level yet. He worries about Blanchfield's takedown success, as she was 0-for-4 against JJ Aldrich. He predicts Andrade will win by knockout, likely in the second round, as Blanchfield has nothing for her on the feet.

Cody initially liked Blanchfield at plus money due to Andrade taking the fight on short notice and Blanchfield's suffocating style, but as the line tightened he shifted to Andrade. He notes Andrade is a proven commodity with better striking and five-round experience, and that she wouldn't take a fight she couldn't win. However, he acknowledges Blanchfield's grappling threat and says he wants to watch weigh-ins before betting.

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Andrade is a huge step up for Blanchfield. He notes that Blanchfield's striking is very undeveloped, especially her kicks, and that Andrade's power will be a shock. He also points out that Blanchfield struggled with Aldrich's counter striking and maneuvering, and Andrade is a much more physical and powerful version of that. Connor sees the fight as too much too soon for Blanchfield.

Jacob is a self-proclaimed Blanchfield hater and picks Andrade confidently. He criticizes Blanchfield's lack of a plan B when things go wrong, citing her fight against JJ Aldrich where she was dominated until a Hail Mary guillotine. Jacob believes Andrade is a better striker and will stuff takedowns, leading to Blanchfield being embarrassed. He compares it to Whittaker vs Vettori and Emmett vs Rodriguez, where one-dimensional wrestlers were exposed. He is not worried about short notice because Andrade wouldn't take the fight if she wasn't ready.

Andrade's relentless pressure, power, and strength will be too much for Blanchfield, who struggled with takedowns against JJ Aldrich and may not be ready for this step up. Andrade's durability and takedown defense should keep her safe, and she will eventually land a knockout, likely in the third or fourth round.

Paul likes Andrade, citing her recent performance against Lauren Murphy where she looked great and nearly finished her. He questions the comparison to Valentina Shevchenko's takedowns, noting that outside of Shevchenko, no one has easily taken Andrade down. He struggles to get behind Blanchfield at the current price, calling it a big step up in competition. He says if the line keeps moving toward Blanchfield, he'll be forced to jump on Andrade.

The MMA Guru picks Jéssica Andrade, stating she hits different and is a step above other flyweights except Shevchenko. He believes Andrade's power will break Blanchfield's nose early, forcing panic takedowns. He recalls Blanchfield's fight with JJ Aldridge where she struggled before getting a guillotine, and thinks Andrade will be too much. He notes Andrade is a 2-to-1 favorite and calls those odds good, predicting a first-round TKO.

Zane picks Andrade because Blanchfield's striking is still raw and relies on pressure and volume, but she struggles against skilled or physically imposing opponents. Andrade is both, with power that Blanchfield has never faced. Blanchfield's takedown entries are not clean enough to consistently get Andrade down, and Andrade's speed and power will be overwhelming. Zane notes that Blanchfield is a good prospect but not complete enough to win this fight.

Angelo is confident in Pauga, citing his strong wrestling and low stance. He notes Pauga went up to heavyweight for TUF but is a natural light heavyweight. Jordan Wright has a 100% finish rate but is on a three-fight losing streak by stoppage and has a weak chin. Angelo thinks Pauga will wrestle and win, but there's no value in the betting line so he won't bet.

Big Brady is picking Jordan Wright for the upset, despite never picking him before. He notes that Pauga was knocked out by Muhammad Usman, who is not a power puncher, and that Pauga has only a 20% finish rate. He believes Wright is dangerous in the first two minutes and should come out aggressively rather than wrestling, as his cardio is poor. He predicts a first-round knockout for Wright.

Cody picks Pauga but is terrified of the -270 line. He notes Jordan Wright has only 5-6 minutes of cardio and is an under machine, but Pauga isn't a big finisher. He says Wright can absolutely get finishes early, so he'll watch weigh-ins closely. He compares Wright to Terence McKinney as a 50/50 fighter who either finishes early or gets pieced up. He also mentions Pauga got knocked out in his last fight and has been hurt before, so he's not confident.

Connor picks Wright because he thinks the move to light heavyweight could benefit Wright's speed and power, and Pauga is inexperienced and slow. However, he acknowledges Wright's mental fragility and tendency to panic. He picks Wright to win by first-round KO, but says he wouldn't bet on it.

Jacob picks Pauga but is a Jordan Wright fan. He thinks Wright's chin is gone and his blitzing style leaves him open. Pauga's wrestling and power at 205 should be too much. Jacob played the under 1.5 rounds and feels good about it, though he cautions both are coming off knockout losses. He expects Wright to get knocked out again.

Pauga has better cardio and a more complete MMA game, while Wright fades after the first round and has durability issues. Pauga can survive the early storm and then take over with grappling and pressure, finishing Wright via ground and pound in the second or third round.

Paul agrees with Cody, calling Jordan Wright a lost fighter with no cardio or durability. He details Wright's pattern of starting fast but fading and getting finished. He notes Pauga has excellent cardio, trains at altitude, and has enough striking to pressure Wright. However, he says the -270 line is too high for a guy with one UFC win who got knocked out. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds at -350 as a parlay piece.

The MMA Guru picks Zac Pauga, citing his takedown defense from The Ultimate Fighter and his size advantage. He criticizes Jordan Wright's poor decision-making and quick turnaround after a KO loss. He believes Pauga is patient and can catch Wright with a counter shot after Wright gets reckless in round two, predicting a KO. He notes the possibility of an upset but trusts Pauga's chin more.

Zane picks Pauga because Jordan Wright has a history of panicking and losing focus when he doesn't finish early. Wright is dangerous early but fades and makes defensive mistakes. Pauga is raw but has a takedown game and can survive the initial storm. Zane notes that Wright's move to light heavyweight seems desperate and may not fix his mental issues.

Angelo picks Parisian, citing his volume striking and UFC experience. He notes Parisian set heavyweight significant strike records and has a grappling win over Alan Baudot. Angelo thinks Pogues is a decent but not powerful heavyweight who doesn't move his head. He believes Parisian's higher-level experience will be the difference, and the line movement favoring Pogues is surprising. He considers a Parisian by decision bet at plus odds.

Big Brady sees a clear path for Pogues via wrestling, as Parisian has terrible takedown defense and get-up game, as shown in the Dontale Mayes fight. He notes that Pogues didn't wrestle in his last fight, which is a concern, but if he does, he should dominate. He predicts a decision win, but warns against betting the -250 line.

Cody picks Pogues but doesn't like the -240 line for an unproven UFC debutant. He notes Pogues is young (27), has good cardio for a heavyweight, and has a wrestling advantage. However, he warns that Pogues' striking is mechanical and he's there to get countered. He also mentions Parisian's only good characteristic is being a bona fide heavyweight, and if Parisian gets top position, it's a big body to move off. He says it's a greasy heavyweight spot and he's not confident.

Connor picks Parisian because he is bigger and can make the fight brutal. He thinks Pogues' gas tank may not hold up against Parisian's pressure, and Parisian's toughness and aggression could wear Pogues down. Connor notes that Pogues has not faced a fighter like Parisian who will crash into him repeatedly.

Jacob picks Pogues but is not confident enough to bet. He thinks Pogues has a wrestling advantage and will be more active with his jab, outworking Parisian. However, he notes Pogues isn't a finisher and Parisian has a dog in him. Jacob expects a sloppy, close fight and might consider a live bet on Parisian if the fight is close in the third round.

Pogues has a strong grappling base and good cardio, which should overwhelm Parisian, who fades in deep waters. Parisian's striking is flashy but his gas tank is poor. Pogues can take him down and grind out a decision, or even finish late.

Paul also picks Pogues but is hesitant. He notes Parisian's wrestling narrative is overblown, as he was taken down by Parker Porter and Dantale Maze. He says Pogues should have speed, technical striking, and cardio advantages. However, he acknowledges Parisian has a size advantage (20-25 pounds) and could use it against the cage. He says he loves betting underdogs but cannot get on board with Parisian.

The MMA Guru picks Jamal Pogues, though he wasn't impressed by his Contender Series performance. He notes Pogues has a long reach and somewhat crisp boxing, and is young enough to take his career seriously now. He criticizes Josh Parisian as a bottom-feeder heavyweight, but acknowledges Parisian is not complete garbage. He predicts a decision win in a great scrap.

Zane picks Pogues because he has faster, sharper hands and a good jab, and he showed the ability to increase his intensity late in fights. Parisian is a brawler who relies on toughness and chaos, but Pogues has a reach advantage and better technique. Zane notes that Parisian's only wins come when opponents fade, and Pogues has shown he can go the distance.

Angelo has a one-unit bet on Prachnio but expresses buyer's remorse. He thinks Prachnio is the better technical fighter with a karate background, but his chin is a concern. Angelo notes William Knight is a powerful, fast bodybuilder-type who can wrestle, but is inconsistent and missed weight by 12 pounds. He believes Prachnio should win if he doesn't get caught, but admits the bet is risky.

Big Brady favors Knight because of his wrestling path, as Prachnio has poor takedown defense (around 50%) and terrible cardio, gassing out by six minutes in his last fight. He thinks Knight can take him down, wear on him, and get a second-round knockout. He notes that both have durability issues, but Knight's power and cardio give him the edge.

Cody picks Prachnio, noting William Knight has struggled with weight cuts and is now moving back to 205 after a failed heavyweight stint. He details Knight's history of botched weight cuts and poor performances when depleted. He says Prachnio has volume and cardio advantages, and even if Knight gets takedowns, he won't do enough with them. He calls it an even money fight but likes Prachnio as the betting underdog.

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Knight's counter punching is technically poor and he cannot put together combinations. Prachnio will get hurt but is unlikely to be finished. Knight's lack of follow-up means Prachnio can recover and win rounds.

Jacob picks William Knight, citing his explosiveness and power as a perfect matchup against Prachnio's karate style. He thinks once Knight starts landing, Prachnio will shell up against the fence and get finished. Jacob notes Knight's aggression and ability to pounce, and believes Prachnio's chin is weak. He also mentions the under 1.5 rounds feels like a trap but thinks Knight will get the KO.

Prachnio's kick-heavy, movement-based style should keep him safe from Knight's early power. Knight fades after round one and has poor cardio. Prachnio can use his range and footwork to win a decision, though his chin is a concern. Live betting after round one is suggested.

Paul picks Prachnio, saying he struggles to get to William Knight. He notes Knight's volume isn't there and he's not sure about his grappling. He says Prachnio should box him up at range with volume as long as he stays upright. He acknowledges Knight can land a bomb, but thinks more often than not Prachnio wins. He says he's not sure if he'll bet it but is picking Prachnio.

The MMA Guru picks William Knight, but is undecided. He acknowledges Marcin Prachnio is not bad and beat Khalil Rountree, but notes Prachnio's chin is suspect, having been finished three times in his last six fights by KO. He believes Knight will find that chin and get a KO, either by dominant position or big shot on the feet, but emphasizes Knight must be aggressive.

Zane picks Prachnio because he is a better striker and more determined than Knight. Knight has power but lacks form and follow-up, and he turns into a counter puncher when pressured. Prachnio takes available targets and will win rounds. Knight may hurt him but likely won't finish, and Prachnio's improved durability should see him through.

Angelo picks Hernandez but won't bet on him due to lack of trust. He acknowledges Hernandez's talent, speed, power, and wrestling, but notes his inconsistency and 'brain fart' moments. Angelo thinks Jim Miller will finally look old and slow, and Hernandez should win by being faster and stronger. However, he admits he'll be rooting for Miller and keeps his money in his pocket.

Big Brady likes Hernandez to wrestle and grind out a decision, similar to his win over Olivier Aubin-Mercier. He notes that Miller has been controlled by wrestlers like Joe Solecki and Vince Pichel. He worries about Hernandez's cardio but thinks the path to victory is clear. He also mentions both have knockout power early, but expects a decision.

Cody picks Hernandez based on tape and skill, calling him a better athlete who moves better and hits harder. He notes Hernandez is confidence-driven and coming in on short notice, which might help him avoid overthinking. He says Jim Miller is a better fighter but at 39 with Lyme disease, the train will fall off eventually. He acknowledges Hernandez's cardio issues and tendency to fall apart if he doesn't finish early, but thinks the short notice and no weight cut to 145 will benefit him.

Connor picks Miller as well, emphasizing that Hernandez's problems are mental and technical, not size-related. Miller is tough, crafty, and a harder hitter than Hernandez's recent opponents. Connor expects Hernandez to win the first round but fade, and Miller to take over in later rounds.

Jacob is picking Jim Miller, calling it a matchup nightmare for Hernandez. He believes Hernandez looks great early but fades when pressured, and Miller's experience and toughness will take over. Jacob notes Miller's recent wins show power and submissions, and he thinks Hernandez's weight class changes indicate desperation. He expects Miller to outwork Hernandez and possibly finish him.

Hernandez has physical advantages in speed, power, and explosiveness, which should allow him to dictate the fight early. He can grind Miller against the cage or land a quick knockout. However, Miller's durability and cardio could become factors if Hernandez fades. Low confidence pick via decision.

Paul picks Jim Miller but is hesitant, acknowledging Hernandez could land a big bomb early. He notes Miller's last three wins are all second-round finishes and that Hernandez tends to fall apart if he doesn't finish early. He says Miller is very live here and is the best underdog on the card. However, he won't bet the moneyline because he thinks the fight has to play out a certain way for Miller to win. He prefers a sprinkle on Miller round two and live betting.

The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller, noting that Alexander Hernandez has only one round of fight in him and is taking this fight on short notice after a recent loss where he took heavy damage. He believes Miller's veteran experience and toughness will allow him to survive Hernandez's early onslaught and then take over, predicting a TKO in the second or third round.

Zane picks Miller because Hernandez has fundamental issues with range and defense, and he overreacts to counter strikes. Miller is a good counter puncher and will find openings. Hernandez may win the first round, but if Miller survives, he can take over. Zane notes that Hernandez's confidence is fragile after moving back to lightweight.

Angelo likes Evan Elder's well-rounded skills, loose striking, heavy kicks, and composure on the ground. He notes Elder's short-notice loss at welterweight should be discounted as he's a natural lightweight. Angelo is concerned about Sadykhov's tendency to throw unnecessary spinning attacks, which led to his only loss. He wishes he got Elder at +220 and notes the line is tightening, recommending to bet now.

Big Brady is impressed with Sadykhov's striking and ability to battle through adversity, noting he fights out of bad positions. He thinks Elder's takedown defense is poor based on his debut, and Sadykhov has wrestling of his own. He predicts a decision win, as Elder is tough and has a chin.

Cody picks Sadykhov, noting he has more firepower, hits harder, and has 15-minute cardio. He says Sadykhov trains at a good gym with Aljamain Sterling and others. He acknowledges Evan Elder is better than his UFC debut showed (short notice, up a weight class) but notes Elder gets hit a lot and is defensively poor. He thinks Sadykhov will have forward pressure and either catch him with something or mix in takedowns for a decision win. He says the line is repetitive on this card and he doesn't love it.

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Sadykhov is a much better puncher and counter puncher than anyone Elder has faced. He notes Elder's vulnerability when stepping in without landing, and that Sadykhov can pressure through Elder's kicks and remain balanced to throw. Connor also points out that Elder's striking is entirely dependent on scaring opponents with kicks, but his punching form is wild and leaves him out of position. He concludes that Sadykhov is a reliable pick to win.

Jacob is high on Evan Elder, calling him an absolute dog after his short-notice performance. He believes Elder is the better technical striker and has shown he can work through adversity. Jacob thinks Sadykhov will look good early but slow down, and Elder's pressure and wrestling will take over. He compares it to the Blake Bilder fight from last week where the odds tightened similarly.

Elder is the better striker with more power and forward pressure, and his training at Kill Cliff FC should improve his cardio and takedown defense. Sadykhov's level of competition is weak, and his takedowns may not work against Elder's strength. Expect Elder to land a knockout in the second round.

Paul picks Sadykhov but is not willing to lay -200. He thought Sadykhov showed flashy striking on Contender Series and has promise, but he's not confident enough to parlay him. He notes there was steam on Elder earlier in the week but the line has corrected. He says Sadykhov is someone to keep an eye on but not someone to lay heavy chalk on in his UFC debut.

The MMA Guru picks Nazim Sadykhov, highlighting his training at Longo and Weidman's gym and his impressive win on the Contender Series against a 9-1 opponent. He contrasts that with Evan Elder's less dominant wins, including a third-round TKO of a 9-16 short-notice opponent. He believes Sadykhov has more talent and skill, predicting a TKO in the later rounds.

Zane sees Sadykhov as a solid, raw prospect with good fundamental power punching and well-roundedness, including top position grappling. He notes Sadykhov's ability to scramble and his innovative striking, like the spinning back kick. Zane contrasts this with Elder, who he describes as a formless regional fighter dependent on heavy kicks to keep opponents at bay, with poor punching form and wrestling defense. He believes Sadykhov's camp (Serra-Longo) instills good technique, and that Sadykhov will be able to push through Elder's kicks and find success in the pocket.

Angelo is confident in Bueno Silva but acknowledges the matchup is tricky. He notes Bueno Silva has zero takedowns in the UFC despite four submission wins, relying on pulling guard or submissions from bottom. Länsberg is a world champion Muay Thai striker who can't defend takedowns, but Bueno Silva may struggle to get the fight to the ground. Angelo still expects Bueno Silva to win, likely by submission, but admits Länsberg could win if she keeps it standing.

Big Brady notes that Bueno Silva has incredible grappling but never initiates takedowns (0-for-1 in UFC). He thinks the fight will stay on the feet, where Länsberg has power and has been competitive as a dog. He still picks Bueno Silva to win by decision, but warns against the -425 line.

Cody picks Bueno Silva but is not confident at -500. He notes she is very slow and plotted, with zero percent takedown accuracy in the UFC. Her best attribute is the armbar, but she has no wrestling to set it up. He says if she can't take Länsberg down, it becomes a striking battle where Länsberg is effective in the clinch. However, Länsberg is 40 and doesn't have the cardio to keep pace. He thinks the fight likely goes to decision and warns that holding a -500 ticket in women's MMA is risky due to judging.

Connor agrees with Zane, calling it a physicality pick. He notes that Länsberg has been outmuscled by less athletic fighters like Pannie Kianzad, and that she lacks a functional game against stronger opponents. He also points out that Länsberg is trying to change her style at age 40, which is unlikely to succeed. Connor feels bad for Länsberg but sees Silva as the clear winner.

Jacob agrees with Bueno Silva but thinks the fight could be closer than expected. He notes Länsberg wants to clinch and hold against the cage, and Bueno Silva is also a Muay Thai striker who doesn't mind clinch positions. Jacob emphasizes Bueno Silva needs to use trips and judo to get the fight to the ground, where her Jiu-Jitsu dominates. He believes if she can do that, she finishes the fight.

Bueno Silva has youth, speed, and power advantages, and her striking should overwhelm the aging Länsberg. Länsberg is on the decline and has been outworked in recent fights. Expect Bueno Silva to land a big shot and finish via submission (club and sub) in the second round.

Paul picks Bueno Silva but says minus 500 doesn't get him out of bed. He thinks the most interesting part is the over/under, noting Länsberg is durable and the fight likely goes to decision. He says the first-round finish against Edgar is cooked into the line. He plans to bet the fight goes to decision at minus 125. He calls Bueno Silva the pick but won't lay the heavy chalk.

The MMA Guru confidently picks Mayra Bueno Silva, calling Lina Länsberg a middle-aged mom who hasn't finished anyone in years. He praises Silva's forward pressure, good chin, and recent performance against Manon Fiorot. He predicts Silva will beat Länsberg on the feet, leading to a panic takedown attempt from Länsberg, and Silva will latch on a submission from the bottom, likely an armbar or triangle in the first two rounds.

Zane notes that Länsberg is 40 years old on a three-fight losing streak and has tried to change her style but hasn't succeeded. He describes Silva as a hard-hitting opportunist who knows how to implement her game, even if her technique is rough. He believes Länsberg lacks the physicality and technical skill to stop Silva from imposing her will, and that Silva's aggression and submission threats will be too much. Zane also mentions that Länsberg's attempts to become an out-fighter have not worked, and she is likely to be bullied.

Angelo has a two-unit bet on Askhabov at -156. He highlights Askhabov's undefeated record (23-0) with 18 stoppages, Chechen wrestling base, wild striking, and slick grappling. He notes Askhabov's takedowns are impressive, including scooping opponents against the cage. Angelo dismisses Emmers' win over Giga Chikadze as irrelevant and believes Askhabov's three-year layoff and move up in weight have been well-spent, as he looks bigger and more refined at Tiger Muay Thai and ATT.

Big Brady is skeptical of Askhabov's 23-0 record, calling it the worst 23-0 he's ever seen, with weak competition. He favors Emmers' striking, takedown defense (100% in UFC), and experience against better fighters. He predicts Emmers wins by decision, pulling off the upset.

Cody picks Emmers as an underdog, noting Askhabov's 23-0 record is massively ballooned with weak competition and he hasn't fought in three years. He says Emmers has fought at a higher level, has wrestling and speed advantages, and looks to have skill advantages. He acknowledges Emmers has self-destructive tendencies (e.g., the Pat Sabatini fight) but thinks he can give Askhabov problems. He says the line feels like a trap and he needs underdogs on this card.

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Emmers has a history of making poor strategic decisions, like the leg lock attempt against Sabatini that led to his injury. He sees Askhabov as a very fast athlete who will create opportunities, even if his style is messy. Connor also points out that Emmers' pressure-heavy game leaves him vulnerable to being drawn into opponents' fights, and that Askhabov's aggression could be a problem if Emmers is not sharp. He picks Askhabov but without strong confidence.

Jacob is not touching Askhabov as a favorite due to red flags: three-year layoff, moving up from 135, and unknown UFC performance after the first round. He thinks Emmers is a well-rounded striker with good wrestling defense and doesn't tire. Jacob believes if Emmers can keep it on the feet, he's the better striker and could be live as an underdog. He might look at Emmers if the odds widen.

Emmers has faced much tougher competition and has the length and speed to pick apart Askhabov from range. Askhabov's reckless striking and questionable takedown defense will be exposed. Emmers should win a decision, though his fight IQ is a concern.

Paul picks Emmers, saying he watched tape and was not impressed by Askhabov despite the 23-0 record. He notes Askhabov fought a bunch of cab drivers and looks incredibly green. He says Emmers has a wrestling advantage, speed advantage, and potentially a striking advantage. He acknowledges Emmers puts himself in bad spots but thinks he can win. He says he won't bet it but will pick Emmers.

The MMA Guru picks Khusein Askhabov, acknowledging the risk of an upset. He notes Askhabov's two years off may have helped him develop, and his undefeated record includes quality opponents. He mentions Jamall Emmers is skilled but inconsistent, and suggests if the odds are crazy, a small bet on Askhabov is worthwhile. He predicts a decision win, possibly after getting hurt early.

Zane is tempted to pick Emmers due to his solid, well-rounded game and boxing, but he has doubts about Emmers' recovery from a severe knee injury that sidelined him for two years. He notes that Askhabov is a very fast, aggressive athlete who can overwhelm opponents with insane aggression, though his style is wild and reckless. Zane worries that Emmers might get caught early if he starts cold, and that Askhabov's single-minded aggression could be decisive. He ultimately goes with Askhabov, citing the uncertainty around Emmers' health.

Angelo picks Lins because OSP is infuriatingly low-volume, often not letting his hands go and throwing one punch at a time. Lins has power, a BJJ black belt, and showed wrestling in his last fight with four takedowns. Angelo believes Lins will win by simply outworking OSP, who doesn't push the pace. He notes the line movement reflects public agreement.

Big Brady is not high on Lins but thinks OSP looks disinterested and has been in terrible fights recently. He notes Lins looked better at light heavyweight in his last fight, while OSP has been knocked out by Tanner Boser. He predicts Lins wins by first-round knockout, but warns against betting the -220 line.

Cody picks Lins but doesn't love the -200. He details OSP's decline: leg injury, weight-cutting issues, missing weight for the first time in his career, and poor performances. He says Lins is a better technical striker and should stand on the outside and out-volume OSP. He notes Lins has wrestling advantage and is younger with fewer fights. However, he says he needs to see weigh-ins because OSP has to make 205 and Lins has been out with injuries. He says he'll pick Lins but won't bet it.

Connor agrees, noting that Lins looked fast and powerful at light heavyweight, with a good boxing game based on straight punches and efficient combinations. He points out that OSP is incredibly passive and will give Lins space to build confidence. Connor also mentions that OSP's recent performances show a lack of confidence and a tendency to back up without offering a counter threat. He sees no reason to pick OSP.

Jacob trusts Lins more than OSP because OSP is comfortable being inactive. He thinks the odds at +200 are a bit disrespectful to OSP, as Lins isn't a dominant wrestler or powerful striker. Jacob expects a boring fight with Lins hanging on OSP's hips and winning a decision. He notes both have been knocked out by Tanner Boser, but Lins is the better overall fighter.

Lins has a grinding style with good forward pressure and clinch work, which should wear down OSP. OSP's cardio and aggression have declined, and he relies on a fading left hook. Lins can close distance, avoid the hook, and win a decision by controlling the cage and landing takedowns.

Paul picks Lins but won't bet it. He notes Lins leaned on wrestling against Prachnio, which could get him in trouble against OSP. He says OSP is not the same guy from 5-6 years ago; he's slow and has slowed down significantly. He says he doesn't see many advantages for OSP and this might be his last fight in the UFC. He says he'll pick Lins but needs to see weigh-ins.

The MMA Guru picks Philipe Lins, but with hesitation. He notes Lins' losses outside the UFC were to Vadim Nemkov, and he had a good PFL career. He criticizes OSP for taking Shogun to a close decision and getting ragdolled by Andre Petroski. He thinks Lins is younger, more motivated, and hungry after many canceled fights, predicting a decision or late second-round TKO.

Zane sees Lins as a confident, aggressive fighter who looked great at light heavyweight, with good boxing and power. He notes that OSP is passive and often relies on a single moment of power to win, but that ability is diminishing with age. Zane believes Lins will be able to walk OSP down and bully him, as OSP tends to back himself into the cage and abandon his guard. He also mentions that Lins is not giving up size and power to OSP, and that OSP's confidence is low.

Angelo likes Clayton Carpenter's extensive international experience from a young age, his slick grappling, and aggressive submission hunting. He notes that Ronderos has a layoff and shoulder injury, and while Ronderos is a fast-paced striker with solid takedown defense, Carpenter's wrestling and technical striking should be superior. Angelo is surprised the line tightened but remains confident in Carpenter.

Big Brady thinks Carpenter is the better wrestler and grappler, and will get the fight to the mat where he is dangerous. He notes Ronderos has poor takedown defense and has been submitted before. He predicts a second-round submission for Carpenter, but warns against the -275 price.

Cody picks Carpenter but says the line is too big. He notes Ronderos has been off for two years and could have improved, training at a good gym in Las Vegas. He says Carpenter is a fine prospect with wrestling and cardio, but he hasn't been tested and has only faced lower-level competition. He warns that Ronderos is big for flyweight and might miss weight. He says there are enough question marks to cause uncertainty at -300.

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Carpenter has more physicality and is willing to fight hard in scrambles. He points out that Ronderos' wrestling was easily shut down by David Dvorak, and that his win over Eric Shelton was more due to Shelton's passivity. Connor sees Carpenter as the better athlete and believes he can put together strikes and find openings, while Ronderos lacks dexterity. However, he acknowledges the possibility of Ronderos holding Carpenter down.

Jacob agrees Carpenter should be the better fighter but is cautious due to Carpenter's limited pro experience (6-0) and Ronderos' layoff. He notes Ronderos' fight IQ may have improved from coaching, but technique issues remain. Jacob thinks Carpenter has the wrestling and grappling edge and is the more technical striker, but he's not fully confident at -275 and might look for a Monday night play if odds drop.

Carpenter is the better striker and grappler, with superior discipline and scrambling ability. Ronderos is aggressive but reckless, and Carpenter's takedown defense and top control should neutralize him. Expect Carpenter to win a decision after controlling the grappling exchanges.

Paul picks Carpenter but is not confident. He notes Ronderos had a tough UFC debut on short notice against David Dvorak and got choked out. He says he doesn't know what Ronderos is good at. He says Carpenter looked half-decent on Contender Series but he doesn't know what to make of this fight. He says he's picking Carpenter but is more interested in hearing Cody's take.

The MMA Guru picks Clayton Carpenter, citing his superior skill, dangerousness, and technical ability compared to Juancamilo Ronderos. He notes that Ronderos lost badly to David Dvorak and only fought to a split decision with an aging Eric Shelton. He believes Carpenter's stand-up will be the key factor and that Ronderos is not good enough to be in the UFC.

Zane thinks Carpenter should be a favorite but not as heavy as the odds suggest. He notes that Carpenter is aggressive, tries a lot of things on the feet, and has more physicality than Ronderos. However, he acknowledges that Ronderos has a clear game plan of taking Carpenter down and holding him there, which could work. Zane is not shocked if Ronderos wins, but he leans toward Carpenter due to his athleticism and ability to find openings.