UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026 · Middleweight · Completed
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer Next Fight
Age 36
Height 6' 4"
Reach 80.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 29
Height 6' 2"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Israel Adesanya
4.03 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.22 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.05 TD Avg
9.0% TD Acc.
76.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Joe Pyfer
3.52 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
3.22 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
1.45 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
62.0% TD Def.
0.9 Sub. Avg
Israel Adesanya - Fight History
LOSS vs Joe Pyfer
KO R2 4:18 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 0 42 of 75 56% 58 of 92 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 0 36 of 70 51% 52 of 90 2 of 8 25% 0 0 2:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 0 24 of 42 57% 37 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 0 9 of 23 39% 9 of 23 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:01
2 Israel Adesanya 0 18 of 33 54% 21 of 36 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 0 27 of 47 57% 43 of 67 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 42 of 75 56% 22 of 54 8 of 8 12 of 13 42 of 74 0 of 1 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 36 of 70 51% 33 of 64 2 of 3 1 of 3 18 of 42 2 of 7 16 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 24 of 42 57% 13 of 30 2 of 2 9 of 10 24 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 9 of 23 39% 7 of 19 1 of 2 1 of 2 6 of 17 1 of 4 2 of 2
2 Israel Adesanya 18 of 33 54% 9 of 24 6 of 6 3 of 3 18 of 32 0 of 1 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 27 of 47 57% 26 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 1 12 of 25 1 of 3 14 of 19
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Israel Adesanya despite acknowledging his age and chin issues. He believes Adesanya's technical striking and range management can keep him safe until Joe Pyfer's cardio fades. He notes that Adesanya looked good in recent losses before getting finished, and that Pyfer's wrestling is not at the level of Dricus du Plessis. However, he says he would not be surprised if Pyfer knocks him out.

"I'm going to pick Izzy here. I think Izzy is the better striker. At this age, is he the more powerful guy? No. Can his chin withstand a big Joe Pyfer punch? Absolutely not. 100% no."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 23, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He acknowledges Adesanya is on a three-fight skid and may be declining, but notes his losses have come against top competition. He thinks Adesanya's elite takedown defense and striking volume will be key, especially with the big cage. He believes if Adesanya's chin holds up, he will outpoint Pyfer over five rounds. He also notes Pyfer's path is via knockout or wrestling, but doubts Pyfer can maintain wrestling for 25 minutes.

Adesanya by decision
"As long as Israel Adesanya's chin holds up for 25 minutes, I kind of think he wins this fight and wins it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Cody acknowledges Adesanya's recent losses and durability concerns but believes Pyfer's cardio issues and reliance on early power will allow Izzy to take over in later rounds. He notes Pyfer's limited wrestling and tendency to gas, making Adesanya the pick despite the risk.

"I will take Israel Adesanya, but you can't feel great about it given that he's lost his last couple fights and he's coming off a knockout loss."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Connor acknowledges that Pyfer is the more rational pick given Adesanya's recent decline and tendency to get hurt, but he stubbornly picks Adesanya because he doesn't think Pyfer is good enough. He notes that Adesanya can fence Pyfer off and make him uncomfortable, but can never fully neutralize the danger. He compares his pick to a classic 'vibes' pick, admitting it's a prove-it question.

Odds: Adesanya opened -110, now -150; Pyfer opened +110, now +130. Betting public coming in on Adesanya.
"I'm going to make a classic Connery Bush style pick and pick a draw to Sonya because I don't think Joe Pfeiffer is good."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Daniel believes Izzy is on the decline, having lost four of his last five and been finished in three. He thinks Pyfer's power and grappling, combined with Izzy's diminished reflexes and chin, will lead to an upset. He picks Pyfer to finish Adesanya.

"I think Joe Pyfer's going to come out here and it's going to be super sad when you see a guy like Joe Pyfer... come out here and beat Israel Adesanya in demoralizing fashion."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Mar 28, 2026 (fight day)

The host is torn on this fight. Adesanya is a bad stylistic matchup for Pyfer on paper (better striker, good takedown defense), but Adesanya has shown signs of decline (KO loss to Imavov, submission loss to Du Plessis). The host cannot confidently pick either side and passes pre-fight, preferring to live bet the fight.

"It's a good stylistic match-up for Izzy. But it can reach a point in a fighter's career where they just find ways to lose."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Lucrative James picks Israel Adesanya to win, believing Adesanya hasn't fallen as far as some think and that his experience and takedown defense will be key. He thinks Joe Pyfer will need a finish to win, but Adesanya's striking and durability make that unlikely. He also notes that Pyfer may fade in later rounds, giving Adesanya an edge.

Israel Adesanya by KO (+325), Israel Adesanya to win in round 4 (+2200) or round 5 (+2500)
"The hammer of the week is Israel Adisagna outs of minus 130."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

The host is torn but leans towards Pyfer, citing Adesanya's recent decline in reflexes and durability. He thinks Pyfer's power and wrestling could lead to a finish, possibly by submission similar to Dricus du Plessis. However, he admits low confidence and may not bet it, noting Adesanya could also win by picking Pyfer apart from distance.

inside the distance
"I'm going to go Pyer. I'm going to go Per inside the distance. Um maybe club and sub. Maybe something similar to what Drizzles did as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Paul agrees with Cody, stating they've never been Pyfer guys. He thinks Adesanya's takedown defense is sufficient and that Pyfer hasn't shown elite wrestling. He's comfortable with the moneyline at -150.

"Israel Adesanya minus 150 is fine by me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya, despite acknowledging Joe Pyfer's power and grappling. He believes Adesanya's striking levels are above Pyfer's, citing his ability to avoid Pereira's left hook and his performance against Imavov. He expects Adesanya to use low kicks to neutralize Pyfer's right hand and eventually find a finish. He predicts a third-round TKO.

TKO in round 3
"I'm going with Israel Adisana to win this fight."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Zane sees the trajectories of the two careers heading in opposite directions, with Adesanya getting hurt frequently and Pyfer being extremely dangerous. He believes Adesanya cannot neutralize Pyfer's danger the way Abus Magomedov did, because Adesanya won't wrestle. He thinks Pyfer's lack of sophistication may not matter if he catches Adesanya early.

Odds: Pyfer opened +110, now +130.
"I think honestly, Pfeiffer is the more rational pick, though."
KO R2 0:30 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Feb 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 0 26 of 50 52% 32 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Nassourdine Imavov 1 15 of 31 48% 18 of 34 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 0 20 of 44 45% 26 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Nassourdine Imavov 0 8 of 21 38% 10 of 23 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:40
2 Israel Adesanya 0 6 of 6 100% 6 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nassourdine Imavov 1 7 of 10 70% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 26 of 50 52% 9 of 28 6 of 8 11 of 14 26 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 15 of 31 48% 9 of 21 0 of 3 6 of 7 10 of 25 0 of 0 5 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 20 of 44 45% 8 of 27 3 of 5 9 of 12 20 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 8 of 21 38% 3 of 13 0 of 2 5 of 6 8 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Israel Adesanya 6 of 6 100% 1 of 1 3 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 7 of 10 70% 6 of 8 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 6
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Israel Adesanya but is getting less confident. He notes that Adesanya's striking looked great in his last fight against Dricus du Plessis, but he was ultimately finished. He believes Adesanya is the better striker and if the fight stays on the feet, he wins. However, he worries about Imavov's wrestling and the possibility of Adesanya's decline. He will not bet on Adesanya.

Will not bet on Adesanya.
"I will not be betting on Israel at asagna I don't quite know if his career is about to fall off a cliff"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady is not overly excited for this fight but picks Israel Adesanya. He notes Adesanya looked bad against Strickland but good against Du Plessis before getting submitted. He thinks Imavov can wrestle but lacks the cardio to do so effectively, and will slow down as the fight goes on. Brady expects Adesanya to pick him apart late and win a decision. He has no betting interest.

decision
"I got to go aagna here and osani to win this fight by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Connor picks Adesanya, arguing that Imavov lacks the pressure and cardio to exploit Adesanya's age. He notes that Adesanya's jab and kicking game remain effective, and Imavov has never shown the ability to maintain a high pace or wrestle consistently enough to trouble Adesanya. Connor believes Imavov would need a radically new approach to win, which he hasn't demonstrated.

"I just kind of have to pick Otis on you by default here and unless he has completely fallen apart or Imavov has leveled up or come up with a really good strategy then."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

James picks Imavov to win, citing Adesanya's decline in durability, reaction time, and motivation. He notes Imavov has advantages in wrestling and grappling, and that Adesanya's recent submission loss to Dricus du Plessis showed poor defensive grappling. He believes Imavov can win by submission, decision, or even knockout due to Adesanya's declining chin. However, he admits it's not his most confident pick.

Imavov by submission at +850 mentioned as a possible play; also suggests Imavov decision as a potential prop.
"I'm going to pick nasad imov to win this fight I think that he's catching Iz he at the right time"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Adesanya is facing a kickboxer that allows him to showcase his high-level performances, unlike the wrestling-heavy styles of Strickland and du Plessis. He will set traps, spring them on Imavov, and prove he is still one of the best middleweights. Expect a 25-minute decision win.

"I believe this is the type of kickboxer that Adesanya has been wanting to go against so that he can showcase that he's still capable of high level performances... look for Adesanya to pick apart Imavov over the course of …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

The MMA Guru picks Nassourdine Imavov to win by submission in the third round, possibly an arm triangle. He believes Imavov's grappling and clinch work will be key, as Adesanya has weaknesses in the clinch and on the ground. He notes Imavov nearly beat Sean Strickland and has good takedown entries. He thinks Adesanya's motivation may be lacking after his losses.

submission, third round arm triangle
"I'm going to go with nasad Nam mov and I'm actually going to take him by submission third round arm triangle"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Zane picks Adesanya, agreeing with Connor that Imavov's style doesn't match up well. He emphasizes that Imavov is not a pressure fighter and struggles with pace, while Adesanya's kicking and jab are still effective. Zane notes that Imavov would need to wrestle consistently, but his takedowns are often from clinch exchanges, which Adesanya handles well.

"I don't think that he's ever shown really the late cardio to make out of Sonia like flow down and really pay for putting on a great performance."
Submission (face crank) R4 3:38 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 90 of 197 45% 99 of 206 4 of 9 44% 2 0 3:39
Israel Adesanya 0 97 of 203 47% 105 of 211 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 22 of 52 42% 22 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 16 of 37 43% 16 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 13 of 25 52% 22 of 34 3 of 5 60% 1 0 3:28
Israel Adesanya 0 17 of 30 56% 25 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:02
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 31 of 75 41% 31 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 40 of 83 48% 40 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Dricus du Plessis 0 24 of 45 53% 24 of 45 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:11
Israel Adesanya 0 24 of 53 45% 24 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 90 of 197 45% 61 of 155 7 of 13 22 of 29 80 of 184 8 of 11 2 of 2
Israel Adesanya 97 of 203 47% 63 of 165 26 of 29 8 of 9 92 of 198 4 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 22 of 52 42% 8 of 30 2 of 5 12 of 17 22 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 16 of 37 43% 10 of 31 4 of 4 2 of 2 16 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dricus du Plessis 13 of 25 52% 10 of 21 2 of 2 1 of 2 5 of 14 6 of 9 2 of 2
Israel Adesanya 17 of 30 56% 12 of 25 2 of 2 3 of 3 13 of 26 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Dricus du Plessis 31 of 75 41% 22 of 63 1 of 3 8 of 9 31 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 40 of 83 48% 25 of 66 12 of 14 3 of 3 40 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Dricus du Plessis 24 of 45 53% 21 of 41 2 of 3 1 of 1 22 of 43 2 of 2 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 24 of 53 45% 16 of 43 8 of 9 0 of 1 23 of 52 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo picks Dricus du Plessis despite acknowledging Israel Adesanya is the more technical fighter. He believes du Plessis's insane pressure, constant forward movement, and takedown attempts will be too much for the 35-year-old Adesanya, who took a year off. He has two half-unit bets on du Plessis at +105 and +120, totaling one unit, and is confident the pressure will overwhelm Adesanya.

Two half-unit bets at +105 and +120; total 1 unit
"I think all of that is going to be too much for Izzy he's 35 years old he took a year off... drus is going to be the pick and I've got two bets on draz."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya to win by decision, but is hesitant. He struggled with this pick, initially leaning du Plessis but then moving to Adesanya. He rewatched the du Plessis vs Strickland fight and didn't think du Plessis won convincingly. He notes that if du Plessis fights at range against Adesanya, Adesanya will make it look easy, but if du Plessis pressures recklessly, he could knock Adesanya out. He is concerned about Adesanya's last performance against Strickland, which was his worst career fight, but believes a motivated Adesanya can win. He says he will probably stay away from betting this fight.

decision
"I'm going to pick osani to win this fight and Win It by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Cody believes du Plessis has the wrestling advantage to take Adesanya down repeatedly, as Adesanya's takedown defense has always been suspect. He notes du Plessis is younger, has better cardio, and is improving, while Adesanya is 35 and coming off a year layoff. He also points to du Plessis' wins over Robert Whittaker and Sean Strickland as evidence he can handle top competition.

"I'm going to back him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Vreeland picks Adesanya, calling him 'good' and noting he occasionally gets caught but won't happen here against a smaller fighter. He believes Adesanya will play it safe and get his belt back, especially with the home crowd against him.

"give me isosa isos is good he occasionally gets caught and knocked out I don't think that's gonna happen here with a smaller fighter in tras D pleas c"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Vreeland picks Dricus du Plessis to retain the belt, citing stylistic advantages in closing distance and making the fight dirty. He notes that du Plessis has power, wrestling threats, and a proven ability to push pace, while Adesanya may be declining due to age and recent losses. Vreeland also mentions betting on du Plessis at plus 110 odds.

"I took D's dupy plus 110 listen I know it's tough to bet against a guy like IAT asna but when we come down to the Stylistics closing the distance getting right in his face fighting not at kicking range …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Fox picks Adesanya, arguing du Plessis is good but cannot close the distance against a motivated Adesanya. He compares to Pereira: you need elite striking or wrestling to beat Adesanya. He dismisses the Strickland loss as an unmotivated Adesanya, and believes with the trilogy fight with Pereira dangling, Adesanya will be fully motivated and put on a clinic. He thinks du Plessis' pressure will be countered viciously.

Israel Adesanya by decision (+240) - Fox's prop pick
"I think you see the ated version of them back and I think you see an absolute clinic on the feet so yeah isra desna"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The host picks Adesanya, citing his technical striking, traps, and game planning. He expects a revitalized Adesanya after rest, and believes he will counter du Plessis effectively. He notes du Plessis' power and forward pressure but thinks Adesanya's pop and volume will be too much. He predicts a knockout win for Adesanya.

Adesanya by knockout
"I think we're going to see a very revitalized version of aanna this weekend and I think that's ultimately going to lead to him getting his hand raised again"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Paul highlights Adesanya's history of lackluster performances under pressure, such as against Sean Strickland and Yoel Romero, and questions his urgency. He emphasizes du Plessis' forward pressure, durability, and wrestling ability, noting he took down Strickland six times. Paul also mentions du Plessis' youth and the fact that Adesanya is 35 and coming off a retirement, making du Plessis the smart side.

"sign me up for draas"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Israel Adesanya. He argues that du Plessis is bigger than Adesanya's previous opponents, with better footwork and angles, and has multiple offensive options including takedowns, body kicks, and ground and pound. He criticizes Adesanya's recent performances, noting close fights with Sean Strickland and a loss to Alex Pereira. He believes du Plessis will take Adesanya down and control him, possibly finishing via ground and pound. He also mentions Adesanya's age (35) and that du Plessis is in his prime and fighting on his own terms.

TKO late round two via ground and pound
"I'm going with drias dupi over israela... he's got way more options he's got the power"
LOSS vs Sean Strickland
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Strickland 0 94 of 271 34% 94 of 271 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 1 137 of 259 52% 137 of 259 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Strickland 0 12 of 39 30% 12 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 1 27 of 52 51% 27 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Sean Strickland 0 20 of 64 31% 20 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 16 of 32 50% 16 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sean Strickland 0 21 of 57 36% 21 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 20 of 41 48% 20 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Sean Strickland 0 20 of 51 39% 20 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 38 of 63 60% 38 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Sean Strickland 0 21 of 60 35% 21 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 36 of 71 50% 36 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Strickland 94 of 271 34% 22 of 154 38 of 60 34 of 57 94 of 271 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 137 of 259 52% 85 of 186 45 of 62 7 of 11 121 of 235 11 of 14 5 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Strickland 12 of 39 30% 1 of 20 3 of 7 8 of 12 12 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 27 of 52 51% 22 of 42 1 of 4 4 of 6 11 of 28 11 of 14 5 of 10
2 Sean Strickland 20 of 64 31% 3 of 35 7 of 12 10 of 17 20 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 16 of 32 50% 11 of 22 5 of 8 0 of 2 16 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sean Strickland 21 of 57 36% 4 of 27 10 of 17 7 of 13 21 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 20 of 41 48% 12 of 32 8 of 9 0 of 0 20 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Sean Strickland 20 of 51 39% 10 of 35 7 of 10 3 of 6 20 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 38 of 63 60% 22 of 46 15 of 16 1 of 1 38 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Sean Strickland 21 of 60 35% 4 of 37 11 of 14 6 of 9 21 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 36 of 71 50% 18 of 44 16 of 25 2 of 2 36 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Adesanya (-650), Strickland (+470)

Round 1
This main event is for all the marbles, with a middleweight belt and plenty of bragging rights following ample trash talk on the line. Intending on making the first defense of his second middleweight title reign, Adesanya (24-2, 13-2 UFC) comes in with about -700 odds as the most heavily favored fighter on the lineup. With plans of springing one of the largest championship upsets in recent memory – Grasso vs. Shevchenko and Pena vs. Nunes notwithstanding – Strickland (27-5, 14-5 UFC) would like nothing more than to spoil the party and play the ultimate villain in Sydney. The striker-on-striker affair will be officiated by referee Marc Goddard, and due to their bad blood, the middleweights have no plan on bumping fists. Adesanya is already talking to Strickland, and he feints several times to make Strickland react immediately. Adesanya paws out a low kick and then a front kick, and Strickland pushes it out of the way and blocks another front kick. A body kick from the champ grazes off the intended target, and he moves laterally to not let Strickland get into his preferred range. Adesanya continues hip-thrusting and faking strikes, and Strickland bites on most of them and is prepared to block when Adesanya commits to a strike. Strickland meanders forward, missing with a jab, and Adesanya hops away. Adesanya reaches his man with a straight left hand, and he sinks a leg kick down hard. Both men try to land long punches, and Strickland whiffs on a one-two. Adesanya kicks the body, and Strickland catches it, walks him to the fence, and lets it go so he can poke out his jab. Strickland sees the big kicks coming from his foe, but he is offensively muted even as he keeps after Adesanya. Adesanya chews up the lead leg with a few kicks, and he jabs to the body to stay busy. Strickland misses with two leg kicks, and he is jittery and keeps a tight Philly Shell defense when coming forward. Adesanya is still able to get in on him, and he kicks the lead leg when circling to the left. Strickland catches him with a few punches, and he lands a punch that drives Adesanya back to the wall. Adesanya allows him to rattle a few punches off the guard, and he bounces off it to stick out his own jab and loose a head kick. Strickland guard against the high kick but cannot stop the low strike, and he continues to give chase and cut Adesanya off. Adesanya stays on his bike and just misses with a head kick, and out of nowhere, Strickland blasts him in the face with a straight right hand. Strickland sees that he has his man hurt badly, and Adesanya drops to his knee. Strickland unloads on him with punches, and Adesanya stands up and turns his back while leaning forward against the fence. As Strickland keeps throwing everything he has, Adesanya motions to Goddard that he is fine. Adesanya turns around, and he survives the assault when the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 2
The champ appears recovered from the assault that ended the previous frame, and he peppers Strickland with distance strikes to initiate the second stanza. Strickland splits the guard with a jab, and Adesanya whips a leg kick at him and has a head kick bounce into the block. Adesanya lands kicks with body legs, and he connects with a left hook and rolls just in time to dodge a one-two from the challenger. Adesanya stretches his hand out several times to get a read on his distance, and he comes up short on a one-two to a high kick. Adesanya attacks the body, and he slaps with his right hand and follows it with a solid left. Strickland parries jabs and body shots, and he ignores a jab and a leg kick while plodding forward. Adesanya looks to loop a left around the guard, and Strickland pops him in the face with a sharp jab. Adesanya gets a right hand over that jab, and Strickland takes it without batting an eye. Strickland jabs with the ball of his foot to the midsection, and Adesanya keeps circling and moving while putting jabs together. Adesanya lands a few leg kicks, and Strickland reaches him with his toes for a push kick. Adesanya strikes the body and the lead leg, and Strickland pushes him back with an accurate jab. Adesanya winds up and drills the challenger with an overhand right, and Strickland can do little beyond block the body kick that comes after it and keep the forward pace constant. Strickland prods out a jab, and Adesanya answers him with a big right that grazes off the shoulder. Adesanya again opens up with a wide right hand, and he kicks the body and fakes to spin as he dips and ducks. Strickland lands with a right, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Adesanya
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Adesanya
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Adesanya

Round 3
Adesanya starts the third round by slapping a kick off the raised guard. Strickland moves forward, but his offense is largely relegated to a jab or a front kick as Adesanya keeps strafing. Adesanya hand-fights to stop a left hand from coming over the top, and he flicks out a number of jabs and kicks the body with either leg. Adesanya pushes off with a front kick, and Strickland answers him with one of his own. When Strickland raises his leg to prepare for a kick, Adesanya kicks him anyway. Adesanya connects with a right over the top in the midst of an exchange, but he mixes up strikes to the body and head to keep Strickland guessing. Strickland walks him down with a pair of jabs and a push kick, and he protects himself from most of what comes back towards him. Adesanya reaches him with a right hand, and Strickland counters with one that brushes off his foe’s forehead. A head kick from Adesanya is narrowly guarded in time, and Adesanya resets and eats a check left hook. Strickland gives chase with a one-two, and he stands Adesanya up with a left hand when swarming him. Adesanya gathers himself and jabs the head and body, only to be met with a push kick. When Adesanya kicks low, Strickland pops him in the chops with a sharp jab. Adesanya slips a punch, retaliates, and takes a body shot and a left hook. Adesanya jabs a few more times as Strickland cannot reach him, and he gets knocked back to the wall from a jab. Strickland lands a front kick, misses with a left hand, and the tepid round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 4
The two have reached the championship rounds, and Adesanya begins a bit more aggressive than before with a number of snappy jabs. Strickland ignores them all as he continues to come towards his foe, and Adesanya responds with a left hand. Strickland pushes his foe back with a punch to the chest, and Adesanya gives him a head kick back. Adesanya moves and kicks the challenger’s body, and he whiffs on a left hook. Adesanya lands a left hand to the body, and Strickland kicks him three times down the middle. A Strickland right hand draws a reaction out of his opponent, and Adesanya tries to slug it out only to get caught with a left hook from Strickland. Adesanya rebounds with a right hand and a kick to the ribs, only to get no-sold by “Tarzan.” Both men trade jabs, and the champion does not get a head kick through but does reach the mark with a right hand. Strickland lets Adesanya come at him so he can string together five or six punches, and Adesanya is surprised as he puts his guard up and backs away. Adesanya springs into action with an overhand right, but it is one-and-done as Strickland is back in his face with a jab. Strickland gets intercepted on his way in, and Adesanya chains a punch into a ripping body kick. Strickland pokes with a front kick, and he keeps jabbing to fluster Adesanya further. Adesanya has a low kick checked, and he keeps his hands low while Strickland is chasing after him. Adesanya tries to swing hard, but Strickland closes in to let the strikes go wide. The champ gets off a jab, and he snipes his target with a right hand. Strickland stands firm and composed while Adesanya is struggling to find any effective offense. Strickland has two punches pound off the guard, and he kicks the body once before the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 5
Strickland is so fired up between rounds, he gets out of his corner, jumps to the center of the cage and starts hitting himself in the face. When the last round opens, Adesanya lands a low kick and circles. Adesanya puts up two high kicks, and Strickland’s defense is tight and solid. The two graze right hands off the other, and Adesanya leans back and gets popped with a right hand. Adesanya chips at the lead calf, and he forces a right hand over the top but does not quite reach him. Strickland picks away at the champ with a jab, and Adesanya reaches out with a body kick. Strickland checks a kick and continues to walk him down, and Adesanya may be a few minutes away from losing in a massive upset. He recognizes this and lands a huge right hand, and Strickland responds with a jab on the nose. Adesanya whips a high kick that gets guarded, and they both land jabs at the same time. A push kick from Strickland forces Adesanya to reset, and he is fearlessly approaching the champion. Strickland connects with an overhand right, and he lands a second to force Adesanya to escape out the side. Strickland backs his foe up against the fence, and Adesanya swings with a left but it does not get through. Strickland stings “The Last Stylebender” with a short combination, and he continues to come at Adesanya. Strickland starts shouting at the champion, telling him to fight him, and Adesanya can only muster a few kicks. Strickland powers forward swinging for the fences, and Adesanya has nothing left to offer. The final horn blares to end this fairly lackluster match, but it is one that will make history. Barring a bizarre series of scorecards, the challenger has done it, pulling off an upset that few if any expected would happen. When the scorecards are read, the UFC has a new middleweight king, and the belt belongs to Strickland. MMA might be the craziest sport in the world. The fights never stop coming, however, and another title is up for grabs next week. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)

The Official Result
Sean Strickland def. Israel Adesanya via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Israel Adesanya confidently, saying it should be Izzy all day and the -650 should be wider. He notes that Izzy is an elite striker with power and technique, while Strickland is a blue-collar volume puncher with no particular power or speed. Angelo expects a one-sided win for Izzy, possibly by decision. He suggests betting Izzy minus 5.5 points for better value.

Considering Izzy minus 5.5 points on BetOnline for better odds
"This is Izzy all day like I'm not gonna do pretend and then do like the Gordon Ramsay reveal but the yeah he's a 650 favorite and it should honestly be wider than that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady confidently picks Israel Adesanya, noting Strickland lacks power and wrestling threat. He thinks Adesanya will pick him apart for five rounds. He is not sure about a finish due to Strickland's durability. He predicts a decision win.

fight doesn't go to decision? no, he says decision
"I like arasandi here to pick apart Sean Strickland for five rounds"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Cody picks Israel Adesanya as the rightful favorite, citing his speed advantage, technical striking, and ability to stay on the outside and pick apart Strickland. He notes that Strickland's best chance is to make it ugly with grappling, but doubts he will employ that game plan consistently. Cody acknowledges the line is juiced but sees Adesanya winning the majority of rounds, especially with the hometown crowd in Australia.

Strickland money line as a hedge if doing well; Adesanya under 110 significant strikes on Prize Picks
"I think as out of Sanyo wins if this line kind of keeps if it keeps growing and we're getting like plus 600 on on flight night and I'm having like a good night I may throw a little bit …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya confidently, citing Adesanya's superior striking, counter-punching, and leg kick game. He notes that Sean Strickland walks in a straight line, backs up in a straight line, and doesn't cut off the cage properly, which will leave him open to Adesanya's combinations. Levi also mentions that Strickland's parrying style leaves his chin exposed to follow-up strikes. He acknowledges the possibility of an upset but believes Adesanya has him covered in all areas.

Odds mentioned: Izzy minus 650, Strickland plus 475. Levi says Izzy should be minus 1000.
"I think Izzy has him covered in all areas and I know a lot of people are bringing up well what if Sean wrestles and it's like I think that's such a broad question."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Lucrative James is highly confident Israel Adesanya will win, calling him a deserved -600 favorite. He sees no clear path for Sean Strickland: Strickland lacks power, takedown threat, and volume to outwork Adesanya. James expects Adesanya to land calf kicks, forcing Strickland to switch stances and lose power. He believes Adesanya will make it look easy, possibly by decision or late knockout if Strickland gets frustrated. James dismisses Strickland's chances as a fluke.

Mentions that Izzy is a deserved -600 favorite and that he doesn't see value in betting Strickland at +400.
"I think Izzy is a deserved minus 600 I think he should be a massive massive favor I don't I don't see the tools that Sean Strickland wins"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Adesanya is a disciplined striker who sets up traps and executes game plans. He has excellent takedown defense. Strickland has poor striking defense, leaving his head on the center line and leaning back. Adesanya should work leg kicks and body shots, then set up a head kick or knockout. He will likely finish within four rounds.

Adesanya by KO
"I'm gonna hold in on othersanya by KO I think he sets up a trap similar to what he did against Paul Acosta and he Springs it on and within the first four rounds or so"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Paul picks Adesanya but notes the line is too wide, suggesting the true line should be around -425 to -450. He acknowledges Strickland's volume and pressure could pose problems, but believes Adesanya's precision and hometown crowd will carry him. Paul mentions that if he's having a good night, he might throw a small bet on Strickland as a hedge.

Strickland money line as a small hedge if doing well; Adesanya under 110 significant strikes on Prize Picks
"I got this thing lined up closer to minus 425 minus 450 Israel the longtime Champion is the Matador and he could very well be exactly that"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya over Sean Strickland, predicting a third-round TKO. He notes that Adesanya will chew up Strickland's lead leg with low kicks, as Strickland has shown vulnerability to leg kicks in fights against Abus Magomedov, Cannonier, and Brendan Allen. Adesanya's feints will cause Strickland to parry, opening up kicks. He believes Adesanya will eventually land a head kick to wobble Strickland and follow up with ground and pound for a stoppage. He does not expect an early knockout, as Adesanya may not be on cycle for this fight.

TKO in round 3
"I'm gonna go with Israel I understand you're getting this one done via round three TKO"
WIN vs Alex Pereira
KO (punches) R2 4:21 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 0 49 of 85 57% 49 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Pereira 1 41 of 96 42% 41 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 0 20 of 31 64% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Pereira 0 15 of 38 39% 15 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Israel Adesanya 0 29 of 54 53% 29 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Pereira 1 26 of 58 44% 26 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 49 of 85 57% 8 of 28 15 of 21 26 of 36 48 of 83 1 of 2 0 of 0
Alex Pereira 41 of 96 42% 18 of 61 14 of 24 9 of 11 40 of 93 0 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 20 of 31 64% 1 of 4 3 of 6 16 of 21 20 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Pereira 15 of 38 39% 3 of 22 5 of 8 7 of 8 15 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Israel Adesanya 29 of 54 53% 7 of 24 12 of 15 10 of 15 28 of 52 1 of 2 0 of 0
Alex Pereira 26 of 58 44% 15 of 39 9 of 16 2 of 3 25 of 55 0 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Angelo picks Alex Pereira but with very low confidence, admitting he has flip-flopped. He notes that Pereira has beaten Adesanya three times, including a knockout in their last fight. However, he acknowledges that Adesanya was winning the fight until he got caught, and that Adesanya has bounced back well from losses before. He is just going to enjoy the fight.

"I am on the Alex paheda side now he's beaten Izzy three times stopped him two times"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Big Brady picks Alex Pereira to win by third-round knockout, citing Pereira's fight-changing power and pressure. He notes that Adesanya is not a wrestler and will likely strike with Pereira, where Pereira has the advantage in power. He was impressed by Pereira's fifth-round finish in their first fight and believes he can do it again.

third round knockout
"give me Alex prayer for the win you know I'm going to take him to win uh by I'll say third round knockout here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Cody agrees with Paul on Pereira at plus money. He doesn't buy into Adesanya's wrestling either, noting his only takedown in the UFC was against Pereira. Cody points out that Pereira trains with Glover Teixeira and has improved his grappling. He also argues that the first fight was closer than people remember, with close rounds, and that the champion's mystique may have influenced scoring. He sees value on Pereira.

plus money on Pereira
"I'm with you I think um plus money on Pereira it's it's definitely the side as far as I'm concerned"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Connor picks Pereira because Adesanya has repeatedly fallen into a passive, cautious style that allows Pereira to find his one-punch knockout. Despite Adesanya's technical advantages and ability to hurt Pereira, he has shown a psychological block that prevents him from maintaining aggression. Connor notes that Pereira's counter left hook is always a threat and that Adesanya's defensive footwork is poor, making him vulnerable when he hangs around. He acknowledges that Adesanya could win if he fights aggressively, but he hasn't seen that version consistently.

Pereira opened at +134, now +119; Adesanya opened at -152, now -138. Connor is surprised Pereira is the underdog given his two KO wins over Adesanya.
"I'm going to essentially wish him luck by not picking it until I see it."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Jacob is confident in Alex Pereira, questioning how anyone can pick against a guy who is 3-0 against Adesanya. He notes that Adesanya fights scared against Pereira, especially against the fence, and that Pereira's power is a constant threat. He believes Pereira will knock him out again, possibly even quicker this time, as Pereira seems more motivated.

"I think he gets knocked out even quicker because for whatever reason Alex seems even more motivated now"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Adesanya is the more complete fighter with more paths to victory. He was winning the first fight until the fifth-round KO. He can implement grappling, leg kicks, and his usual striking to avoid Pereira's power. Pereira is a heavy hitter but has limited grappling and cardio. I think Adesanya's team will adjust, and he wins a decision, though Pereira's power always poses a threat.

"I still lean with Izzy being the more complete fighter here Aileen with being the guy that has more paths to victory in this matchup which is why I think he's going to go out there and win back his …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Paul sees Alex Pereira as a plus-money champion who has already defeated Adesanya multiple times, including in MMA. He believes Adesanya's wrestling narrative is overblown since he trains at a kickboxing gym and hasn't shown that skill. Paul thinks Pereira will be more confident with MMA experience and can win rounds or land a knockout. He acknowledges it's a close fight but feels the plus money is too good to pass up.

plus money on champion; Pereira at +115
"I just feel like a plus money I'd be stupid not to have a sniff so am I super confident this is a world class five round main event... but yeah I got to take Alex Pereira to retain"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Alex Pereira

The MMA Guru picks Alex Pereira to win by second-round KO. He expects a similar fight to the first, with Adesanya failing takedown attempts and Pereira winning the clinch with body shots. He predicts Pereira will edge round one, then in round two, he will catch Adesanya with a straight right hand against the cage, rocking him badly and finishing him on the ground. He emphasizes that Pereira will not get rocked at the end of round one this time.

second round KO
"Alex Pereira gets it done by second round KO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Zane picks Pereira because Adesanya has a history of taking his foot off the gas when he has momentum, allowing Pereira to get back into fights. He points to the Whittaker rematch as instructive, where Adesanya hurt Whittaker but then became passive and never adjusted. Zane believes Adesanya's cautious approach is a mental block, and despite encouraging quotes about being more aggressive, he needs to see it to believe it. He notes that Pereira is a massive middleweight and could have weight-cut issues, but that's not factored into his pick.

Pereira opened at +134, now +119; Adesanya opened at -152, now -138. Zane is surprised Pereira is the underdog given his head-to-head record.
"I can't imagine him letting Pereira hang around for five rounds and winning. I just can't."
LOSS vs Alex Pereira
TKO (punches) R5 2:01 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Pereira 0 86 of 162 53% 119 of 209 1 of 4 25% 0 0 6:34
Israel Adesanya 0 91 of 157 57% 140 of 214 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Pereira 0 23 of 43 53% 23 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Israel Adesanya 0 23 of 41 56% 28 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
2 Alex Pereira 0 20 of 44 45% 30 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:13
Israel Adesanya 0 17 of 36 47% 33 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:21
3 Alex Pereira 0 14 of 25 56% 31 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:47
Israel Adesanya 0 8 of 14 57% 19 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Alex Pereira 0 20 of 35 57% 26 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:08
Israel Adesanya 0 15 of 29 51% 30 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
5 Alex Pereira 0 9 of 15 60% 9 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Israel Adesanya 0 28 of 37 75% 30 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Pereira 86 of 162 53% 41 of 103 21 of 29 24 of 30 77 of 148 3 of 4 6 of 10
Israel Adesanya 91 of 157 57% 42 of 89 27 of 33 22 of 35 76 of 139 14 of 17 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Pereira 23 of 43 53% 6 of 22 6 of 8 11 of 13 23 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 23 of 41 56% 1 of 12 8 of 10 14 of 19 19 of 36 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Alex Pereira 20 of 44 45% 14 of 36 2 of 2 4 of 6 19 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 17 of 36 47% 12 of 25 4 of 6 1 of 5 15 of 33 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Alex Pereira 14 of 25 56% 7 of 17 5 of 6 2 of 2 8 of 15 0 of 0 6 of 10
Israel Adesanya 8 of 14 57% 3 of 8 3 of 3 2 of 3 6 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 1
4 Alex Pereira 20 of 35 57% 10 of 19 6 of 11 4 of 5 20 of 34 0 of 1 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 15 of 29 51% 8 of 18 4 of 5 3 of 6 11 of 24 4 of 5 0 of 0
5 Alex Pereira 9 of 15 60% 4 of 9 2 of 2 3 of 4 7 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 28 of 37 75% 18 of 26 8 of 9 2 of 2 25 of 34 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Middleweight Title Fight: Alex Pereira vs. Israel Adesanya
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Adesanya (-130), Pereira (+110)

Round 1
At long last, the main event is here. The middleweight championship will be on the line for two men that know one another intimately. This will be their second meeting in the cage, but fourth across combat sports, and Pereira (7-1, 4-0 UFC) is 3-0 thus far. The once-dominant champion Adesanya (23-2, 12-2 UFC) met his match last November, falling to a salvo of strikes in the fifth round in a fight he was winning. Needing no further introduction or hype, the two stand directly in front of one another as referee Dan Miragliotta gives the final instructions as the two do not break eye contact. The match begins with no glove touch, and Pereira lashes out first with a low kick. Adesanya responds with a few body kicks, and he kicks the calf as well. Pereira strikes the low leg again, and they trade kicks to this target and this target alone. The pace is slow and deliberate, with the middleweights well out of punching range. Pereira gets off a low kick, and Adesanya slaps him in the face with his foot. Pereira scores a few more leg kicks, and he does not flinch any time Adesanya manages to land on him. Pereira slides his foot up Adesanya’s shoulder with a head kick, but Adesanya dodges it well enough to not let it strike him in the face. Pereira jabs the body and kicks at the lead leg, and he dips back from a looping one-two. The former champ gets off a pair of body kicks, and Pereira continues his assault on the former champ’s calf. Adesanya whips another kick to the ribcage, and he slams a few kicks to the Brazilian’s inside leg. “The Last Stylebender” strikes the body with his shin, and Pereira kicks low and high – the second misses, and the crowd gasps. Adesanya looks to split the guard, but Pereira protects himself and scores a heavy calf kick. The action-free round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Adesanya
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Adesanya

Round 2
When the second round begins, Adesanya fires off several high kicks that Pereira blocks or dodges. Adesanya sits down on a calf kick, and Pereira nods at him. Pereira absorbs a head kick and nods, and he walks Adesanya down and starts slugging it out with him. The Brazilian wings huge punches, and Adesanya eats a few of them and backs off to bounce off the wall. Pereira corners him, but he lets him off the hook when Adesanya gets off a good shot. Adesanya begins to lead the dance again, with several kicks from his rear leg to the midsection and raised guard. Pereira attacks both calves with kicks as Adesanya switches stances, and “The Last Stylebender” reaches him with a few punches. One jab in response from Pereira knocks Adesanya back with much more emphasis behind it. Adesanya winds up with a right hook, and Pereira frowns and resets to keep pounding on Adesanya’s calf. They fire jabs at one another from a wide distance, and Adesanya slams his shin on Pereira’s inner thigh. Adesanya clips Pereira with a clean left hook, and Pereira walks through it and two follow-up punches to aim a right hand down Broadway. Adesanya strings a few punches to the body and one to the head, and he skirts back as a low kick comes at him. Pereira lands another low, and Adesanya counters him with an overhand right. They come together and throw hands, with Adesanya the one to break and escape as Pereira walks him down. The champion stuns Adesanya with a calf kick, and Adesanya is compromised. Adesanya falls back to the cage, barely able to stand up, and Pereira lays into him with a brutal series of body shots and a knee. Adesanya desperately fires off a right hand to back Pereira off, and Pereira reels but stands back up. Adesanya connects with one second right hand flush on the temple, and “Poatan” collapses to the ground like a ton of bricks. Before Miragliotta can reach them, Adesanya lands one more shot for good measure out of the playbook of Dan Henderson against Michael Bisping, and Pereira is completely unconscious, dreaming of his ancestors. Adesanya stands up and mocks Pereira’s bow-and-arrow move from before and motions to fire three arrows at the fallen Brazilian. Incredible! Adesanya has done it, exacting some modicum of revenge on the man to beat him three times before. The building erupts as Adesanya celebrates his triumph, and Pereira is out for a while and eventually comes to. “The Last Stylebender” claims the microphone and gives a motivational speech about the thrill of victory, imploring everyone to have this feeling at least once in their life. Whether Adesanya moves on to challenge new opponents vying for his throne or if they set up the rubber match for all the marbles, we will be certainly be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Israel Adesanya def. Alex Pereira R2 4:21 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo acknowledges that Pereira has beaten Adesanya twice in kickboxing, including by KO, but he picks Adesanya because he is the current middleweight champion with 24 UFC fights against Pereira's seven. He notes that both are strikers and unlikely to grapple, but believes Adesanya's MMA experience and cage control could be factors. He admits it is insane to pick against the champion but does so reluctantly. He has a bet on under 4.5 rounds at +150.

under 4.5 rounds at +150 (placed months ago)
"I'm gonna have to pick Israel atasanya I'm gonna have to pick the current middleweight champion of the world to beat a dude with seven fights"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya to win by decision, citing Adesanya's superior defensive striking and ability to avoid clean shots. He notes that Pereira has a puncher's chance but Adesanya fights smart and avoids risks, making it a 'boring' but effective game plan. He mentions the big cage favors Adesanya's movement and that Pereira's power is terrifying but Adesanya doesn't give opportunities to land clean. He also notes that Adesanya has never been knocked down in the UFC.

Adesanya by decision; big cage favors Adesanya; no takedowns expected
"I like ottasania to win a quote-unquote boring decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Cody picks Pereira as a live underdog, citing Pereira's size and power advantage over Adesanya's previous opponents. He notes that Pereira has already beaten Adesanya twice in kickboxing, including a knockout, and that the mental edge favors Pereira. He also points out that Adesanya's defensive wrestling is untested and that Pereira's grappling has improved training with Glover Teixeira. Cody believes Pereira can win a straight kickboxing match and has the power to hurt Adesanya.

"I gotta go the other way... I just think that if it's going to end up being a kickboxing match there's a lot that I really do like."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to retain the middleweight belt, citing Izzy's superior MMA experience and resume against top competition like Whittaker, Vettori, and Cannonier. He notes that while Pereira has knockout power and a history of beating Izzy in kickboxing, MMA is a different sport with smaller gloves, no standing eight-count, and the ability to clinch and grapple. Levi is hesitant because Pereira's left hook is a constant threat, and Izzy must be perfect for 25 minutes. He mentions the odds are a discount compared to Izzy's usual lines, but he has no bet on the fight and plans to enjoy it as a fan.

No bet at the moment; odds mentioned: Izzy -180, Pereira +155 at DraftKings
"my pick is going to be Izzy I don't have a bet at the moment I'm kind of juggling if I want to bet it or if I just want to sit back and enjoy it as a fan but …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The host believes Adesanya is the superior striker with better technique and combinations, and that the smaller MMA gloves will allow his shots to land cleaner. He acknowledges Pereira's power and left hook but thinks Adesanya's discipline and output will win the fight, likely by decision. He sees no value in betting Adesanya at -180 but picks him to win.

"I think that Izzy is rightfully favored here I have no intentions of betting Izzy at minus 180"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Pereira as an underdog. He notes that Pereira has won both kickboxing matches against Adesanya and has been training with Glover, improving his grappling. Paul points out that Adesanya has never landed a takedown in the UFC and that Pereira's cardio should be fine in a stand-up fight. He also mentions that the line has fluctuated and he can wait for weigh-ins to bet, but he will have money on Pereira.

"I think it's a pretty clear you know you don't have to like twist my arm too much to get me to bet an underdog so yeah Pereira will be the pick and I'll have money on him come Saturday …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

The MMA Guru picks Alex Pereira, arguing that Pereira has improved more than Adesanya in striking since their kickboxing fights. He believes Adesanya has plateaued and that Pereira's size, reach, and power will be decisive. He notes that Adesanya has been hit by lesser strikers like Whittaker and Cannonier, and predicts a second-round KO. He dismisses the grappling threat, citing Pereira's training with Glover Teixeira and his defensive awareness.

KO round two
"I'm going with Alex Pereira again"
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Jul 02, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 0 116 of 230 50% 163 of 277 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 90 of 157 57% 141 of 217 0 of 4 0% 0 0 4:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 0 22 of 48 45% 22 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 18 of 28 64% 18 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Israel Adesanya 0 28 of 48 58% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 19 of 31 61% 19 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Israel Adesanya 0 17 of 35 48% 35 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 17 of 36 47% 38 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:29
4 Israel Adesanya 0 24 of 45 53% 40 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 16 of 36 44% 31 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:18
5 Israel Adesanya 0 25 of 54 46% 38 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 20 of 26 76% 35 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 116 of 230 50% 60 of 165 26 of 31 30 of 34 114 of 226 2 of 4 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 90 of 157 57% 36 of 89 32 of 40 22 of 28 78 of 143 12 of 14 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 22 of 48 45% 7 of 29 6 of 8 9 of 11 22 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 18 of 28 64% 1 of 6 6 of 8 11 of 14 18 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Israel Adesanya 28 of 48 58% 12 of 32 9 of 9 7 of 7 28 of 47 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 19 of 31 61% 6 of 15 9 of 11 4 of 5 19 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Israel Adesanya 17 of 35 48% 9 of 26 4 of 4 4 of 5 17 of 34 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 17 of 36 47% 7 of 22 6 of 8 4 of 6 9 of 27 8 of 9 0 of 0
4 Israel Adesanya 24 of 45 53% 15 of 34 5 of 7 4 of 4 24 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 16 of 36 44% 8 of 27 6 of 7 2 of 2 14 of 33 2 of 3 0 of 0
5 Israel Adesanya 25 of 54 46% 17 of 44 2 of 3 6 of 7 23 of 52 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 20 of 26 76% 14 of 19 5 of 6 1 of 1 18 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Israel Adesanya, citing his superior speed, technique, and counter-striking. He notes that Cannonier offers no takedown threat, making it a pure kickboxing match where Izzy is the better kickboxer. He acknowledges Cannonier's power but believes Izzy's defense and timing will prevail.

"I like izzy to win this fight but it will be very interesting to see what happened if jared lands clean"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady is confident in Israel Adesanya, citing his size, speed, and striking advantage. He believes Cannonier has no clear path to victory, as wrestling is unlikely and striking on the outside favors Adesanya. He predicts a decision win, possibly a late finish if Cannonier rushes.

Adesanya by decision
"adasanya i'll say adasanya by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Cody believes Adesanya is the cleaner striker and will manage range effectively. He notes Cannonier tends to wait on his punches and doesn't throw high volume, which will allow Adesanya to dictate the pace. He sees a decision victory or late stoppage as likely.

Adesanya over 76.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I think he's going to be cleaner more polished stand up and uh you know on route to likely a decision Victory or maybe like a late stoppage"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 30, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to win, citing his superior range, stance switching, and fight IQ. He notes that Adesanya's fainting game and variety of strikes make him difficult to deal with, and that Cannonier's only path is to capitalize on Adesanya's occasional defensive lapses. Levi acknowledges Cannonier's power and durability but believes Adesanya's technical edge will prevail. He mentions the line is about right and sees no value in betting at -500.

Line is about right; no value at -500; would have been interested at -300 to -400 for a parlay.
"on paper i mean you gotta favor izzy... the pick is easy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Adesanya is faster and more technical. Cannonier's path to victory is a KO, but Adesanya's defense and movement make that unlikely. Cannonier is not a proactive grappler and doesn't have exceptional cardio. Adesanya should win a decision, possibly a late finish.

Adesanya wins in round 4/5 or decision +115
"i think arizona wins no real resistance here in my opinion"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Paul thinks the line is too wide but still expects Adesanya to win. He highlights Adesanya's leg kicks and movement to stay out of danger, and notes Cannonier lacks the wrestling to exploit Adesanya. He sees a decision win but won't bet at -500.

Adesanya over 76.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I don't think Jared Cannonier is a complete sitting duck in this spot... but I do think he wins"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya to win by TKO in the fourth round. He believes Adesanya's leg kicks and range will be key, and that Cannonier, at 38, will take risks when behind on the scorecards, leading to a counter shot finish. He notes Cannonier's forearm injury from blocking kicks and expects Adesanya to capitalize.

fourth round TKO
"i'm gonna be going with israel to sanyo winning this one by fourth round tko"
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 1 79 of 169 46% 98 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Robert Whittaker 0 59 of 136 43% 74 of 151 4 of 10 40% 0 0 3:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 1 18 of 34 52% 18 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Robert Whittaker 0 9 of 21 42% 9 of 21 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Israel Adesanya 0 16 of 41 39% 24 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 12 of 33 36% 17 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:52
3 Israel Adesanya 0 17 of 33 51% 17 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 12 of 28 42% 12 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
4 Israel Adesanya 0 15 of 39 38% 15 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 16 of 35 45% 19 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:40
5 Israel Adesanya 0 13 of 22 59% 24 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 10 of 19 52% 17 of 26 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 79 of 169 46% 36 of 108 14 of 23 29 of 38 77 of 167 2 of 2 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 59 of 136 43% 38 of 105 8 of 11 13 of 20 54 of 130 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 18 of 34 52% 3 of 14 4 of 6 11 of 14 18 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 9 of 21 42% 3 of 12 1 of 1 5 of 8 9 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Israel Adesanya 16 of 41 39% 9 of 30 0 of 2 7 of 9 16 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 12 of 33 36% 7 of 27 3 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Israel Adesanya 17 of 33 51% 11 of 24 3 of 4 3 of 5 16 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 12 of 28 42% 9 of 20 1 of 3 2 of 5 12 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Israel Adesanya 15 of 39 38% 6 of 26 5 of 7 4 of 6 15 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 16 of 35 45% 10 of 29 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 32 3 of 3 0 of 0
5 Israel Adesanya 13 of 22 59% 7 of 14 2 of 4 4 of 4 12 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 10 of 19 52% 9 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 2 8 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Adesanya to win by decision in a very competitive fight. He notes that Whittaker's path to victory is grappling, but Marvin Vettori tried that and still lost. He thinks Adesanya has surprises on the ground and is more precise with power. He suggests buying a few rounds on the scorecard for Whittaker as a prop.

buy a few rounds on the judge's scorecard for Robert Whittaker
"i like israel adasana to win by decision in a very very competitive fight and i may buy a few rounds on the judge's scorecard for robert whitaker"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady is confident in Adesanya due to his reach advantage, striking skills, and takedown defense. He dismisses the narrative that Whittaker will wrestle, noting Adesanya stuffed four takedowns from Vettori and still won 50-45. He believes Whittaker will struggle to close distance again, and Adesanya will win comfortably, possibly by late knockout. He calls it one of his most confident picks.

Adesanya by late knockout
"i'm going to take honasanya pretty confidently probably my first or second most confident pick of the card"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Cody believes Whittaker hasn't shown enough improvement since the first fight to change the outcome. He highlights Adesanya's superior striking and takedown defense, noting that even when taken down, Adesanya gets back up quickly. He thinks Whittaker's chin is compromised from the Yoel Romero wars and that Izzy will eventually land the knockout.

under 4.5 rounds +105
"i just don't think i've seen enough from robert whittaker since the first meaning to really leaning his favor"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to win the rematch, citing Adesanya's precision striking and ability to get inside opponents' heads. He notes that Whittaker has looked good in his three-fight win streak but hasn't shown anything to suggest he can overcome Adesanya's accuracy. Levi also mentions that Whittaker drops his left hand and that Adesanya's jab can change the fight. He expects Adesanya to win by decision this time.

"I still have to go with izzy I design it here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker has improved since the first fight, with better game planning and activity. He should mix in takedowns and volume to win rounds. Adesanya has been taken down more recently, and Whittaker's style is more elusive than Vettori's. The odds are too wide; Whittaker should be closer to +150. He wins a decision.

Whittaker by decision; value at +225
"i do like bobby knuckles in this spot i think he's a very good bet especially at plus 225 and i don't care what anybody says"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Paul agrees with Cody that Adesanya will win again. He notes Whittaker's takedowns against Gastelum were opportunistic and won't work against Adesanya's improved takedown defense and get-up game. He thinks standing at range with Izzy is a losing strategy and expects a similar outcome to the first fight.

under 4.5 rounds +105
"i think it's going to be the same old thing"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya by decision, citing his leg kicks, range control, and suspected PED use. He believes Whittaker's patience will play into Adesanya's game and that Adesanya's takedown defense and ability to get up will be key.

decision
"i'm going with israel desanya"
Joe Pyfer - Fight History
KO R2 4:18 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 0 42 of 75 56% 58 of 92 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 0 36 of 70 51% 52 of 90 2 of 8 25% 0 0 2:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 0 24 of 42 57% 37 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 0 9 of 23 39% 9 of 23 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:01
2 Israel Adesanya 0 18 of 33 54% 21 of 36 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 0 27 of 47 57% 43 of 67 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 42 of 75 56% 22 of 54 8 of 8 12 of 13 42 of 74 0 of 1 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 36 of 70 51% 33 of 64 2 of 3 1 of 3 18 of 42 2 of 7 16 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 24 of 42 57% 13 of 30 2 of 2 9 of 10 24 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 9 of 23 39% 7 of 19 1 of 2 1 of 2 6 of 17 1 of 4 2 of 2
2 Israel Adesanya 18 of 33 54% 9 of 24 6 of 6 3 of 3 18 of 32 0 of 1 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 27 of 47 57% 26 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 1 12 of 25 1 of 3 14 of 19
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Israel Adesanya despite acknowledging his age and chin issues. He believes Adesanya's technical striking and range management can keep him safe until Joe Pyfer's cardio fades. He notes that Adesanya looked good in recent losses before getting finished, and that Pyfer's wrestling is not at the level of Dricus du Plessis. However, he says he would not be surprised if Pyfer knocks him out.

"I'm going to pick Izzy here. I think Izzy is the better striker. At this age, is he the more powerful guy? No. Can his chin withstand a big Joe Pyfer punch? Absolutely not. 100% no."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 23, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He acknowledges Adesanya is on a three-fight skid and may be declining, but notes his losses have come against top competition. He thinks Adesanya's elite takedown defense and striking volume will be key, especially with the big cage. He believes if Adesanya's chin holds up, he will outpoint Pyfer over five rounds. He also notes Pyfer's path is via knockout or wrestling, but doubts Pyfer can maintain wrestling for 25 minutes.

Adesanya by decision
"As long as Israel Adesanya's chin holds up for 25 minutes, I kind of think he wins this fight and wins it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Cody acknowledges Adesanya's recent losses and durability concerns but believes Pyfer's cardio issues and reliance on early power will allow Izzy to take over in later rounds. He notes Pyfer's limited wrestling and tendency to gas, making Adesanya the pick despite the risk.

"I will take Israel Adesanya, but you can't feel great about it given that he's lost his last couple fights and he's coming off a knockout loss."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Connor acknowledges that Pyfer is the more rational pick given Adesanya's recent decline and tendency to get hurt, but he stubbornly picks Adesanya because he doesn't think Pyfer is good enough. He notes that Adesanya can fence Pyfer off and make him uncomfortable, but can never fully neutralize the danger. He compares his pick to a classic 'vibes' pick, admitting it's a prove-it question.

Odds: Adesanya opened -110, now -150; Pyfer opened +110, now +130. Betting public coming in on Adesanya.
"I'm going to make a classic Connery Bush style pick and pick a draw to Sonya because I don't think Joe Pfeiffer is good."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Daniel believes Izzy is on the decline, having lost four of his last five and been finished in three. He thinks Pyfer's power and grappling, combined with Izzy's diminished reflexes and chin, will lead to an upset. He picks Pyfer to finish Adesanya.

"I think Joe Pyfer's going to come out here and it's going to be super sad when you see a guy like Joe Pyfer... come out here and beat Israel Adesanya in demoralizing fashion."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Mar 28, 2026 (fight day)

The host is torn on this fight. Adesanya is a bad stylistic matchup for Pyfer on paper (better striker, good takedown defense), but Adesanya has shown signs of decline (KO loss to Imavov, submission loss to Du Plessis). The host cannot confidently pick either side and passes pre-fight, preferring to live bet the fight.

"It's a good stylistic match-up for Izzy. But it can reach a point in a fighter's career where they just find ways to lose."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Lucrative James picks Israel Adesanya to win, believing Adesanya hasn't fallen as far as some think and that his experience and takedown defense will be key. He thinks Joe Pyfer will need a finish to win, but Adesanya's striking and durability make that unlikely. He also notes that Pyfer may fade in later rounds, giving Adesanya an edge.

Israel Adesanya by KO (+325), Israel Adesanya to win in round 4 (+2200) or round 5 (+2500)
"The hammer of the week is Israel Adisagna outs of minus 130."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

The host is torn but leans towards Pyfer, citing Adesanya's recent decline in reflexes and durability. He thinks Pyfer's power and wrestling could lead to a finish, possibly by submission similar to Dricus du Plessis. However, he admits low confidence and may not bet it, noting Adesanya could also win by picking Pyfer apart from distance.

inside the distance
"I'm going to go Pyer. I'm going to go Per inside the distance. Um maybe club and sub. Maybe something similar to what Drizzles did as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Paul agrees with Cody, stating they've never been Pyfer guys. He thinks Adesanya's takedown defense is sufficient and that Pyfer hasn't shown elite wrestling. He's comfortable with the moneyline at -150.

"Israel Adesanya minus 150 is fine by me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya, despite acknowledging Joe Pyfer's power and grappling. He believes Adesanya's striking levels are above Pyfer's, citing his ability to avoid Pereira's left hook and his performance against Imavov. He expects Adesanya to use low kicks to neutralize Pyfer's right hand and eventually find a finish. He predicts a third-round TKO.

TKO in round 3
"I'm going with Israel Adisana to win this fight."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Zane sees the trajectories of the two careers heading in opposite directions, with Adesanya getting hurt frequently and Pyfer being extremely dangerous. He believes Adesanya cannot neutralize Pyfer's danger the way Abus Magomedov did, because Adesanya won't wrestle. He thinks Pyfer's lack of sophistication may not matter if he catches Adesanya early.

Odds: Pyfer opened +110, now +130.
"I think honestly, Pfeiffer is the more rational pick, though."
Submission R2 1:46 · UFC 320 · Oct 04, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 11 of 12 91% 18 of 21 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:36
Joe Pyfer 1 6 of 10 60% 13 of 18 0 of 4 0% 2 0 2:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 11 of 12 91% 16 of 19 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:36
Joe Pyfer 0 1 of 3 33% 2 of 5 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:44
2 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 0 of 0 --- 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 1 5 of 7 71% 11 of 13 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Abusupiyan Magomedov 11 of 12 91% 6 of 7 5 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 8
Joe Pyfer 6 of 10 60% 6 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 11 of 12 91% 6 of 7 5 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 8
Joe Pyfer 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 5 of 7 71% 5 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Abusupiyan Magomedov vs. Joe Pyfer
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pyfer (-238), Magomedov (+195)

Round 1
The prelims ended with a middleweight striker’s delight, and it will begin with one as well. Sporting an even finish rate of 75%, Magomedov (28-6-1, 4-2 UFC) can threaten on the feet but is not a slouch on the ground. On the other hand, “Bodybagz” Pyfer (14-3, 5-1 UFC) wants to put him in a body bag. Referee Chris Tognoni—and not Cobra Kai teammate Tommy—will be officiating this contest, so sweeping the leg will be optional. Gloves are touched.
The chants for “U.S.A.” are out early, although Pyfer would prefer to fight at a safe distance. Nothing is thrown for over 30 seconds, and Pyfer suddenly springs into action by shooting for a single. He succeeds in bullying the German to the wall, holding him there until he hunts for a trip. Magomedov uses the momentum against him and drags Pyfer to the mat, where he unloads with a pair of explosive elbows. Magomedov embraces smothers Pyfer while Pyfer holds onto him to prevent much offense coming, and Pyfer sets up a triangle choke that Magomedov walks through. Magomedov dings Pyfer with a power punch, and he climbs on Pyfer’s back when Pyfer stands.
Pyfer tries to use the wall to scrape his foe off, but Magomedov lifts him and slams him down with sheer power. In a north-south position, Magomedov wrangles his foe’s left arm for a kimura while simultaneously isolating the neck with a leg-scissor choke. Pyfer’s face turns a shade of red, but Magomedov abandons it so he can get back to controlling Pyfer. Pyfer looks to kick off with butterfly hooks, and Magomedov lets him reverse-somersault so he can defend a single. Pyfer tries and fails to drag the fight down, and he rips body shots from up close when clinched. Magomedov shoves him aside and splits, and he plants a front kick on the chest. Magomedov reaches with a sharp left hand, and Pyfer unloads a power right that Magomedov shakes his head at. Pyfer walks Magomedov down and slugs him with one more punch before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov

Round 2
Pyfer starts off his corner aggressive as can be, and he slings two big punches at his opponent. “Bodybagz” takes Magomedov off his feet with his rampaging two-hook offense, and he willingly follows the fight down after landing so he can get on top and do some damage. When Pyfer relocates to full mount, he lashes out with a vicious elbow that slashes open a cut on Magomedov’s forehead, and then shifts to the side while wrapping up an arm-triangle choke. Magomedov sits up to get out of the choke, and Pyfer follows him and sets up the body triangle. Pyfer wraps up the rear-naked choke grip on top of Magomedov’s chin, and he squeezes with all his might. Rather than trying to slip the forearm under the jaw, he just keeps crushing the face. Magomedov tries to tough it out until he cannot withstand the pain any longer, and the face crank submission has once again succeeded in the Octagon.

The Official Result
Joe Pyfer def. Abusupiyan Magomedov R2 1:44 via Submission (Face Crank)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Angelo picks Joe Pyfer despite his negative attitude, believing Pyfer is better than Abusupiyan Magomedov everywhere: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He notes both fighters fade, but Pyfer hits harder and has better skills. He thinks the odds are a discount because of Pyfer's personality, but he is confident in the pick.

"I got to pick him. And I'm like super confident here. I think these odds are a discount because Joe Piper is everything Aboose thinks he is, but a little better."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Big Brady is confident in Joe Pyfer, noting his power from the Kelvin Gastelum fight where he dropped Gastelum multiple times. He believes Abusupiyan Magomedov gets hurt easily and has poor cardio. He thinks Pyfer's power will lead to a first-round knockout.

Joe Pyfer by first round KO.
"Give me Joe Pyer. Give me Joe Piper by first round KO."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Connor picks Magomedov out of spite for Pyfer, but also because he believes Magomedov is the smarter pick for a decision win. He notes that Magomedov's game is shallow but consistent, and if Pyfer doesn't finish early, Magomedov's ability to frustrate with long-range strikes and takedowns will likely lead to a win. Connor considers it a coin flip but leans toward Magomedov's consistency.

"I just decided I'm going to pick Obus Magomedov out of a rapidly grown supply of spite for Joe Piper."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Magomedov is seen as overlooked and a better all-around fighter on paper. If he survives Pyfer's early power, his striking and grappling should lead to a decision win.

"I believe that Magomedov is being overlooked in this matchup. On paper, I think he's a better all-around fighter... Look for Magomedov to grind this fight out and win it on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

The MMA Guru picks Joe Pyfer, despite concerns about his calf kick defense. He notes Abus Magomedov's poor cardio and tendency to get sloppy, while Pyfer's conditioning and power should prevail. He predicts a second-round KO.

second-round KO
"I'm going to go with Joe Pyfer to get this one by second round KO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Zane picks Pyfer but with hesitation, acknowledging that Pyfer's first-round dynamism could lead to a quick finish. However, he notes that if Pyfer doesn't finish early, he tends to run out of ideas and become discouraged, while Magomedov is more consistent and can frustrate him over three rounds. Zane considers it a coin flip but sticks with Pyfer due to his explosive potential.

"I came in ready to pick Piper just for that first round dynamism. So I'm going to stick with it."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 0 33 of 99 33% 34 of 100 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Joe Pyfer 2 57 of 114 50% 58 of 115 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 8 of 20 40% 8 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 2 21 of 39 53% 22 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
2 Kelvin Gastelum 0 11 of 50 22% 11 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 0 17 of 40 42% 17 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 14 of 29 48% 15 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Joe Pyfer 0 19 of 35 54% 19 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 33 of 99 33% 13 of 69 11 of 17 9 of 13 32 of 98 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 57 of 114 50% 44 of 99 12 of 14 1 of 1 51 of 104 3 of 3 3 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 8 of 20 40% 3 of 14 2 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 21 of 39 53% 16 of 33 5 of 6 0 of 0 17 of 31 1 of 1 3 of 7
2 Kelvin Gastelum 11 of 50 22% 2 of 34 6 of 10 3 of 6 11 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 17 of 40 42% 12 of 35 4 of 4 1 of 1 17 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Kelvin Gastelum 14 of 29 48% 8 of 21 3 of 4 3 of 4 13 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 19 of 35 54% 16 of 31 3 of 4 0 of 0 17 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Angelo picks Joe Pyfer because Kelvin Gastelum is unreliable with poor work ethic and weight issues. He notes Kelvin has a granite chin and power, but Joe is a powerful striker with slick BJJ. He warns Joe not to get frustrated if the knockout doesn't come quickly. He thinks the 4-to-1 odds are fair but not a cakewalk.

"Joe Piper should win this fight. As long as Joe is not expecting a quick knockout and then getting frustrated when he doesn't get it, Joe should win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Big Brady likes Joe Pyfer more now that the fight is at sea level instead of Mexico City. He believes Pyfer can win by any method: knockout, submission, or decision. He notes Pyfer's size, power, and black belt in jiu-jitsu, and that Gastelum has been submitted before. He thinks a decision is most likely due to Gastelum's durability, but sees Pyfer as the better fighter overall.

Pyfer by decision most likely
"I like Piper here quite a bit. Kelvin Gastlam is going to be very undersized."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Pyfer. He emphasizes that Gastelum's best wins are against smaller or older opponents, and Pyfer's size and power pose a serious threat. Connor notes that Gastelum's defensive flaws and reliance on his chin make him vulnerable, especially at middleweight where he is not as big.

Odds: Pyfer -383, Gastelum +324. Connor thinks the line is reasonable.
"I think in that context, you really have to pick Pfeiffer here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum can deal with Pyfer's power and then get to his own striking game, blitzing the pocket and landing big shots, possibly mixing in takedowns. His durability, cardio, and strength of schedule will allow him to get the victory over the younger Pyfer.

"I like me some Gastam in this spot as I think he can deal with the big power that Piper brings to the table and then from there he can get to his own striking game where he does a …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

The MMA Guru picks Joe Pyfer by submission in the first round. He notes Pyfer's muscle advantage and underrated grappling, citing his training with Sean Brady and his submission wins. He believes Pyfer will land big shots early, then take Gastelum down and submit him with an arm triangle. He mentions Gastelum's granite chin but thinks Pyfer can finish him.

Finish prediction: first round submission (arm triangle). Also mentioned in PrizePicks: Pyfer lands under 49.5 significant strikes.
"I'm going to take Joe Pyer by submission in the first round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Zane picks Joe Pyfer, noting that Gastelum is inconsistent and relies on his chin, which may be fading. He points out that Pyfer is bigger, hits harder, and has a cleaner striking game. Zane references the Hermanson fight where Pyfer won the first two rounds before fading, and believes in a three-round fight Pyfer's early power will carry him.

Odds: Pyfer -383, Gastelum +324. Zane thinks the line is too wide but still picks Pyfer.
"I'm going to take the bigger, harder, cleaner puncture."
CANCEL vs Kelvin Gastelum
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

James picks Kelvin Gastelum as a significant underdog, arguing that Joe Pyfer has not proven himself against top competition and that his wins are over faded or lower-level fighters. He notes Gastelum has fought much better opposition, has better cardio, and has been training at elevation in Mexico for a month, including in the mountains. James believes Pyfer's gas tank is suspect and that Gastelum can survive early danger and win in later rounds. He sees value at plus 260 odds.

Value on Gastelum at plus 260. Mentions Pyfer's size and early power but questions his cardio and level of competition.
"I think there's value on Kelvin gum here because it's still a show me spot for Joe Piper he has to show me that he's worthy of a minus 320 price tag."
KO (punches) R1 1:25 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 29, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joe Pyfer 1 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Marc-André Barriault 0 0 of 5 0% 0 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joe Pyfer 1 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Marc-André Barriault 0 0 of 5 0% 0 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joe Pyfer 8 of 10 80% 4 of 5 1 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1
Marc-André Barriault 0 of 5 0% 0 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joe Pyfer 8 of 10 80% 4 of 5 1 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1
Marc-André Barriault 0 of 5 0% 0 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Cody picks Pyfer but is hesitant due to his cardio issues. He notes that Pyfer has heavy hands and usually finishes fights early, but if Barriault survives the first round, Pyfer may fade. Cody believes Pyfer will learn from his loss to Jack Hermansson and pace himself better, but acknowledges that Barriault's pressure and cardio could cause problems. He expects Pyfer to win a decision or get an early knockout.

"I am going to pick Pyfer... he is the play, I just think the number's way off."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Daniel thinks Pyfer has more power and is more physically imposing than Barriault. He notes that Barriault struggles against higher competition and lacks athleticism. He believes Pyfer learned from his loss to Hermansson and will come back better. He expects a three-round scrap where Pyfer's firepower makes the difference, whether by decision or knockout.

"I think the Firepower of Joe Pyfer is gonna make the difference here... I'm going Joe Pyfer to win this fight and get back on track."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

The host picks Pyfer by knockout but is hesitant, noting that Barriault's cardio and volume could cause problems if Pyfer doesn't finish early. He says the longer the fight goes, the more it favors Barriault. He suggests the knockout prop at +200 is a better way to play Pyfer, and also mentions Barriault's decision prop and round 3 prop as potential plays.

Pyfer by knockout at +200; Barriault by decision; Barriault round 3 at +1500
"I ultimately lean with The Knockout power of pyer as I do think he'll end up catching bario clean here I'm putting him out but the longer that this fight goes the more it plays in Bario's favor."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Paul leans toward Barriault as a live underdog, noting that Pyfer has cardio issues and that Barriault has a high-volume pressure style. He points out that Barriault has gone the distance with tough opponents and that Pyfer tends to slow down after the first round. Paul suggests betting Barriault live after the first round if he survives, as his odds will improve significantly.

"I don't mind Barriault... if you're looking for a dog, you could do a lot worse."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

The Guru picks Joe Pyfer over Marc-André Barriault. He notes that Barriault has no power and is a grindy fighter who gets into brawls. He believes Pyfer's technical striking and takedown entries will be key. He predicts Pyfer will finish Barriault by TKO in the first round, as Barriault is hittable and has been KO'd before.

TKO first round
"I'm going to go Joe pyer... TKO first round"
LOSS vs Jack Hermansson
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Hermansson 0 121 of 235 51% 188 of 327 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:08
Joe Pyfer 0 92 of 250 36% 95 of 254 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Hermansson 0 16 of 38 42% 16 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 0 24 of 58 41% 24 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jack Hermansson 0 19 of 38 50% 19 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Joe Pyfer 0 22 of 60 36% 22 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jack Hermansson 0 37 of 69 53% 43 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 0 20 of 65 30% 20 of 65 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Jack Hermansson 0 33 of 57 57% 58 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 0 22 of 46 47% 23 of 48 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:50
5 Jack Hermansson 0 16 of 33 48% 52 of 90 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:01
Joe Pyfer 0 4 of 21 19% 6 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Hermansson 121 of 235 51% 74 of 174 15 of 23 32 of 38 111 of 219 5 of 6 5 of 10
Joe Pyfer 92 of 250 36% 56 of 196 25 of 34 11 of 20 92 of 250 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Hermansson 16 of 38 42% 3 of 21 8 of 9 5 of 8 16 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 24 of 58 41% 11 of 41 9 of 10 4 of 7 24 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jack Hermansson 19 of 38 50% 11 of 28 1 of 3 7 of 7 19 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 22 of 60 36% 11 of 45 9 of 10 2 of 5 22 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jack Hermansson 37 of 69 53% 25 of 54 4 of 7 8 of 8 33 of 64 4 of 5 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 20 of 65 30% 12 of 54 4 of 7 4 of 4 20 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Jack Hermansson 33 of 57 57% 21 of 41 2 of 3 10 of 13 32 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 22 of 46 47% 19 of 39 2 of 4 1 of 3 22 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jack Hermansson 16 of 33 48% 14 of 30 0 of 1 2 of 2 11 of 23 0 of 0 5 of 10
Joe Pyfer 4 of 21 19% 3 of 17 1 of 3 0 of 1 4 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Angelo acknowledges Jack Hermansson's grappling credentials but notes his low takedown accuracy (29%). Joe Pyfer has incredible power, good wrestling, and has trained with high-level grapplers, including a win over Gerald Meerschaert. Angelo believes Pyfer is the real deal and that this is a perfect stepping stone fight. He suggests betting or parlaying Pyfer.

could bet and parlay Joey P
"I think Joe's the real deal and I think this is a perfect stepping stone type fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Big Brady picks Joe Pyfer to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Pyfer has dynamite in his hands and hits like a truck, while Hermansson has been knocked out before and struggles to get fights to the mat. He thinks the small cage favors Pyfer's pressure, and he expects Pyfer to knock Hermansson out early. He acknowledges Hermansson's cardio and grappling but believes Pyfer's power is the difference.

first round knockout
"I'm going to take Joe Piper to win this fight and I think he knocks him out in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Cody sees value in Hermansson as a plus money underdog. He questions Pyfer's cardio and five-round experience, noting Pyfer has never fought three rounds and relies on early finishes against lower-level competition. Hermansson has proven volume and cardio over five rounds, with wins over Chris Curtis and competitive fights with Strickland and Vettori. Cody believes Pyfer's -260 price is too high given the unknowns, making Hermansson a clear dogger pass pick.

"I'm certainly tempted in a Hermansson bet... minus 260 just seems off to me."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Hermansson is a tough veteran with a grappling-heavy approach and good durability. He should be able to weather Pyfer's early power and then take over with his grinding style, potentially winning by decision or late stoppage. Pyfer's cardio is untested against a durable opponent. However, Hermansson is coming off a knee injury, and Pyfer has youth and power. Low confidence pick.

"I have to lean ever so slightly to the veteran here in Jack romanson I have my question marks due to the injuries that he's coming back from uh the the youth advantage of Joe pyer here as well uh …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Paul agrees with Cody, calling Hermansson a clear dogger pass. He notes Pyfer's lack of five-round experience and that Hermansson has multiple tools and paths to victory. Paul points out that if the fight goes deep, Hermansson's cardio and volume will be decisive. He also mentions that Pyfer could win by early knockout, but the value is on Hermansson at plus money.

"at plus 220 yeah I think it's pretty clearly a pass type of situation"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

The MMA Guru picks Joe Pyfer with high confidence, citing Pyfer's knockout power and grappling ability. He notes Pyfer's impressive KO of Gerald Meerschaert and his performance against Abdul Razak Alhassan, where Alhassan seemed scared. He believes Pyfer can put away Hermansson, who he criticizes for losing to Roman Dolidze. He predicts a first-round KO.

first round KO
"Joe pyer is going to absolutely obliterate him round one KO... pyer by KO."
Technical Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 2:05 · UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Oct 07, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joe Pyfer 0 26 of 62 41% 26 of 63 3 of 4 75% 2 0 1:07
Abdul Razak Alhassan 0 11 of 28 39% 11 of 28 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joe Pyfer 0 20 of 46 43% 20 of 47 2 of 3 66% 1 0 0:32
Abdul Razak Alhassan 0 7 of 19 36% 7 of 19 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:08
2 Joe Pyfer 0 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:35
Abdul Razak Alhassan 0 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joe Pyfer 26 of 62 41% 15 of 47 9 of 12 2 of 3 24 of 60 2 of 2 0 of 0
Abdul Razak Alhassan 11 of 28 39% 4 of 15 2 of 3 5 of 10 11 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joe Pyfer 20 of 46 43% 12 of 34 6 of 9 2 of 3 19 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Abdul Razak Alhassan 7 of 19 36% 3 of 11 2 of 3 2 of 5 7 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Joe Pyfer 6 of 16 37% 3 of 13 3 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0
Abdul Razak Alhassan 4 of 9 44% 1 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 5 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Angelo picks Joe Pyfer with high confidence, citing his powerful striking, pressure, and composure. He notes that Abdul Razak Alhassan is a powerful striker but headhunts and abandons his high-level Judo. Pyfer may also wrestle offensively. The only concern is Pyfer's lack of experience in longer fights, but Angelo trusts his hands and pressure.

"I think Joe Pier is going to get this done I think he's going to land the cleaner shots"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Big Brady picks Joe Pyfer, noting that Pyfer has more ways to win, especially if he uses his grappling. He highlights Abdul Razak Alhassan's non-existent takedown defense and that Pyfer is a black belt in BJJ. He warns that if Pyfer stands and bangs, he risks Alhassan's power, but believes Pyfer will take the fight to the ground and secure a second-round submission.

second round submission for Joe Pyfer
"I'm going to take Joe pyer to win this fight I'm going to take Joe Piper to win this fight by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Cody picks Joe Pyfer, highlighting his size, power, and well-rounded game. He notes that Alhassan is undersized at middleweight, has poor cardio, and relies on a puncher's chance. Pyfer's wrestling and durability give him multiple paths to victory, and Cody expects him to win, likely by knockout.

Pyfer inside the distance, Pyfer by knockout
"I think Piper wins... I'm just gonna play that money line... I'm thinking Piper inside the distance maybe more specifically knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Daniel Levi leans Joe Pyfer but calls it a dog-or-pass situation at -450. He notes that Abdul Razak Alhassan has 12 first-round KOs but fades past round one, while Pyfer is the bigger natural middleweight. However, he is not fully sold on Pyfer's competition level and acknowledges that either fighter could get knocked out. He advises against putting Pyfer in parlays at this price.

dog or pass situation; not putting Pyfer in parlays
"I think it's a dog or pass situation at these odds a lean pifer because I think he's a little bit bigger"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2023 (fight day)
Joe Pyfer

Lucrative James picks Pyfer to win by finish, likely a TKO via ground and pound. He thinks Pyfer will use his underrated grappling, setting up takedowns with his jab. He notes Pyfer trains with high-level grapplers and has competed in grappling. He sees value in Pyfer by submission at +700 but leans TKO. He believes the line is wide and Alhassan is live but not betting him.

Pyfer submission +700 (considering)
"I think Pier's gonna win the fight I think there's value on Alan I think P's line is wide"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Pyfer has a reach and height advantage, and his power should be able to keep Alhassan at distance. Alhassan is dangerous but has durability issues and is 38. Pyfer should be able to counter Alhassan's overhand rights and get a knockout. However, the -450 line is too steep; I prefer the fight doesn't go to distance prop. Pyfer by finish is likely.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm going to go Piper maybe even inside the distance... violence is my kind of best spot in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Paul agrees with Pyfer, noting his prospect status and Alhassan's cardio issues. He mentions that Alhassan is undersized and has struggled at middleweight. Paul considers a submission prop at +600 as a speculative play, but his main pick is Pyfer on the moneyline.

Pyfer by submission (speculative)
"pifer's the rifle favorite... the greediness inside of me is leaning me towards maybe one of those little submissions stab there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

The MMA Guru picks Joe Pyfer over Abdul Razak Alhassan, predicting a first-round TKO. He notes both are first-round finishers, but Pyfer is more consistent and has grappling skills, having outgrappled Eric Anders. He cites Pyfer's reach advantage (75 inches) and size, and believes Pyfer's intimidation factor will be greater. He also mentions Alhassan couldn't KO Buckley, implying Pyfer's power is superior.

first round TKO, might be worth putting some money on an underdog
"I'm gonna go Joe pifer I think when you've got two first round finishes this is ain't leaving the first round in my opinion someone's getting knocked out"
TKO (punches) R1 3:15 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joe Pyfer 0 10 of 21 47% 10 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gerald Meerschaert 0 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joe Pyfer 0 10 of 21 47% 10 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gerald Meerschaert 0 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joe Pyfer 10 of 21 47% 1 of 12 2 of 2 7 of 7 10 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gerald Meerschaert 14 of 24 58% 6 of 16 8 of 8 0 of 0 6 of 11 0 of 0 8 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joe Pyfer 10 of 21 47% 1 of 12 2 of 2 7 of 7 10 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gerald Meerschaert 14 of 24 58% 6 of 16 8 of 8 0 of 0 6 of 11 0 of 0 8 of 13
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gerald Meerschaert vs. Joseph Pyfer
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pyfer (-190), Meerschaert (+160)

Round 1
Middleweights with high finish rates collide in this next encounter, as durable veteran Meerschaert (35-15, 10-7 UFC) eclipses 50 pro fights when he faces young upstart Pyfer (10-2, 1-0 UFC). While the judges and scorekeeper may not be needed for this one, referee Marc Goddard almost certainly will be required. The action fighters do not bump fists before engaging, as Pyfer wants to fight. Meerschaert stays on the outside with a slapping low kick, and he hand-fights as the two are in alternating stances. Meerschaert kicks the body and nearly stumbles after his kick is blocked. Pyfer wings a head kick that buzzes past the hairline, as the crowd oohs. Meerschaert has a head kick guarded, and he chops at the lead leg. Pyfer reaches him with a single right hand, and Meerschaert backs him up with a few lumbering punches. Meerschaert uses another sweeping calf kick to decent effect, and he fakes a right hook to draw a reaction. Pyfer aims a right hand that stuns Meerschaert, and he does not follow it up as “GM3” blinks it out. Pyfer grabs one of his foe’s hand to open up a punch to the body, and Meerschaert catches him with a body kick.
Pyfer drills Meerschaert with a ferocious left hook and a follow-up right hand, and Meerschaert is in trouble as he falls to the mat. Meerschaert shells up, and Pyfer looks to Goddard to see if he should keep striking. He drops down a few punches, and Meerschaert appears to be done as he just lays on his back taking punches. "GM3" turns to his knees, but is otherwise taking punishment. Goddard allows Meerschaert every possible bit of time to recover, but the goose of the Kill Cliff FC trainee is cooked as he rolls back to his side. “Bodybagz” zips up his win with a couple standing-to-ground left hands, and Goddard has seen enough and waves the fight off.
This is a big win for Pyfer, who never allows Meerschaert’s grappling to come into play as he secures the first-round knockout victory.

The Official Result
Joseph Pyfer def. Gerald Meerschaert R1 3:15 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Angelo picks Joe Pyfer but is hesitant to bet because Pyfer is green and Gerald Meerschaert has defied odds before. He notes that Pyfer has good wrestling and enough Jiu-Jitsu to avoid submissions, and is the better striker. However, he is cautious because Meerschaert's chin has held up recently, and he doesn't want to risk a similar outcome to the Bruno Silva fight.

"Joe's absolutely going to be the pick here but uh I'm a little a little hesitant with the bets"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Big Brady picks Joe Pyfer to win by knockout, citing Pyfer's power and patience, and Meerschaert's questionable chin and striking defense. He notes that Meerschaert has been knocked out by lesser punchers. He predicts a second-round KO, but acknowledges Meerschaert's history of pulling off upsets as a dog.

second round knockout
"I do see pie for knocking out mirror shirt I'll say second round knockout for Joe pifer here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Cody also picks Pyfer. He thinks Pyfer will be too much early, with better striking and wrestling. He notes Meerschaert often comes back after losing the first round, but Pyfer's cardio should prevent that. Cody suggests live betting Meerschaert after round 1 if Pyfer doesn't finish, as Meerschaert's value increases. He acknowledges Meerschaert's submission threat but believes Pyfer can avoid it.

Live bet on Meerschaert after round 1
"I'll pick pifer with you I think he's gonna be too much early on in this fight"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Meerschaert. He emphasizes that Meerschaert has beaten better competition and that Pyfer's wins are not as impressive. Connor also notes that Meerschaert's experience and ability to handle adversity give him the edge.

"I'm definitely going to take the veteran savvy over a talented, but still very raw fighter and Joe Piper."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Jacob is confident in Joe Pyfer, noting that he went into the breakdown looking for reasons to pick Meerschaert but came out with Pyfer as one of his more confident picks. He highlights that Pyfer throws straight, fast shots down the middle, which is exactly how Khamzat Chimaev knocked out Meerschaert. He believes Pyfer can knock him out, but warns that Pyfer can get over-aggressive and headhunt, which could allow Meerschaert to time a takedown.

"I came out of my breakdown with Joe Piper as one of my more confident picks on this card"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Meerschaert is a veteran submission specialist with 9 UFC submissions, often winning as an underdog. He uses body kicks to set up takedowns and has crushing top pressure. Pyfer has hype but was submitted by a striker early in his career and hasn't faced a grappler of Meerschaert's level. I expect Pyfer to come out fast, but Meerschaert will weather the storm and find a submission in round 2 or 3.

fight doesn't go to decision (favorite parlay piece)
"I think Gerald mirror shirt like I said earlier makes a living off of pulling off the upside against guys who are favored to go out there there and try to knock him out in that first round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Paul picks Pyfer, citing his youth, athleticism, and power. He notes Pyfer has a wrestling background and should be able to take Meerschaert down and avoid submissions. Paul believes Pyfer's power could knock Meerschaert out early, as Meerschaert has been knocked out before. He acknowledges Meerschaert's experience and submission threat but thinks Pyfer's cardio and strength will carry him.

Pyfer inside the distance; live bet on Meerschaert after round 1
"I will end up taking the favor Joe Piper"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Joe Pyfer

The MMA Guru picks Joe Pyfer to win by 30-27 decision. He expects Pyfer to have a power advantage on the feet, causing Meerschaert to shoot predictable takedowns that Pyfer will stuff. He sees Pyfer landing better shots, sprawling on takedowns, and taking back position to control rounds. He does not predict a first-round KO despite Pyfer's danger, instead expecting a dominant decision.

"I'm actually going to go have Joe Piper by decision 30 27"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Zane picks Meerschaert because of his veteran savvy, calmness, and ability to survive and submit opponents. He notes that Meerschaert has broadened his game and has a tremendous front headlock. Zane also points out that Pyfer's best win is against a weak opponent and that he was submitted by better fighters.

"I'm going to favor Michard."
Expert Picks (11)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Israel Adesanya despite acknowledging his age and chin issues. He believes Adesanya's technical striking and range management can keep him safe until Joe Pyfer's cardio fades. He notes that Adesanya looked good in recent losses before getting finished, and that Pyfer's wrestling is not at the level of Dricus du Plessis. However, he says he would not be surprised if Pyfer knocks him out.

"I'm going to pick Izzy here. I think Izzy is the better striker. At this age, is he the more powerful guy? No. Can his chin withstand a big Joe Pyfer punch? Absolutely not. 100% no."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 23, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He acknowledges Adesanya is on a three-fight skid and may be declining, but notes his losses have come against top competition. He thinks Adesanya's elite takedown defense and striking volume will be key, especially with the big cage. He believes if Adesanya's chin holds up, he will outpoint Pyfer over five rounds. He also notes Pyfer's path is via knockout or wrestling, but doubts Pyfer can maintain wrestling for 25 minutes.

Adesanya by decision
"As long as Israel Adesanya's chin holds up for 25 minutes, I kind of think he wins this fight and wins it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Cody acknowledges Adesanya's recent losses and durability concerns but believes Pyfer's cardio issues and reliance on early power will allow Izzy to take over in later rounds. He notes Pyfer's limited wrestling and tendency to gas, making Adesanya the pick despite the risk.

"I will take Israel Adesanya, but you can't feel great about it given that he's lost his last couple fights and he's coming off a knockout loss."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Connor acknowledges that Pyfer is the more rational pick given Adesanya's recent decline and tendency to get hurt, but he stubbornly picks Adesanya because he doesn't think Pyfer is good enough. He notes that Adesanya can fence Pyfer off and make him uncomfortable, but can never fully neutralize the danger. He compares his pick to a classic 'vibes' pick, admitting it's a prove-it question.

Odds: Adesanya opened -110, now -150; Pyfer opened +110, now +130. Betting public coming in on Adesanya.
"I'm going to make a classic Connery Bush style pick and pick a draw to Sonya because I don't think Joe Pfeiffer is good."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Daniel believes Izzy is on the decline, having lost four of his last five and been finished in three. He thinks Pyfer's power and grappling, combined with Izzy's diminished reflexes and chin, will lead to an upset. He picks Pyfer to finish Adesanya.

"I think Joe Pyfer's going to come out here and it's going to be super sad when you see a guy like Joe Pyfer... come out here and beat Israel Adesanya in demoralizing fashion."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Mar 28, 2026 (fight day)
No clear pick

The host is torn on this fight. Adesanya is a bad stylistic matchup for Pyfer on paper (better striker, good takedown defense), but Adesanya has shown signs of decline (KO loss to Imavov, submission loss to Du Plessis). The host cannot confidently pick either side and passes pre-fight, preferring to live bet the fight.

"It's a good stylistic match-up for Izzy. But it can reach a point in a fighter's career where they just find ways to lose."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Lucrative James picks Israel Adesanya to win, believing Adesanya hasn't fallen as far as some think and that his experience and takedown defense will be key. He thinks Joe Pyfer will need a finish to win, but Adesanya's striking and durability make that unlikely. He also notes that Pyfer may fade in later rounds, giving Adesanya an edge.

Israel Adesanya by KO (+325), Israel Adesanya to win in round 4 (+2200) or round 5 (+2500)
"The hammer of the week is Israel Adisagna outs of minus 130."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

The host is torn but leans towards Pyfer, citing Adesanya's recent decline in reflexes and durability. He thinks Pyfer's power and wrestling could lead to a finish, possibly by submission similar to Dricus du Plessis. However, he admits low confidence and may not bet it, noting Adesanya could also win by picking Pyfer apart from distance.

inside the distance
"I'm going to go Pyer. I'm going to go Per inside the distance. Um maybe club and sub. Maybe something similar to what Drizzles did as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Paul agrees with Cody, stating they've never been Pyfer guys. He thinks Adesanya's takedown defense is sufficient and that Pyfer hasn't shown elite wrestling. He's comfortable with the moneyline at -150.

"Israel Adesanya minus 150 is fine by me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya, despite acknowledging Joe Pyfer's power and grappling. He believes Adesanya's striking levels are above Pyfer's, citing his ability to avoid Pereira's left hook and his performance against Imavov. He expects Adesanya to use low kicks to neutralize Pyfer's right hand and eventually find a finish. He predicts a third-round TKO.

TKO in round 3
"I'm going with Israel Adisana to win this fight."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Zane sees the trajectories of the two careers heading in opposite directions, with Adesanya getting hurt frequently and Pyfer being extremely dangerous. He believes Adesanya cannot neutralize Pyfer's danger the way Abus Magomedov did, because Adesanya won't wrestle. He thinks Pyfer's lack of sophistication may not matter if he catches Adesanya early.

Odds: Pyfer opened +110, now +130.
"I think honestly, Pfeiffer is the more rational pick, though."