Career Averages - Terrance McKinney
Career Averages - Kyle Nelson
Terrance McKinney - Fight History
AJ picks Terrance McKinney to win by knockout in the first round. He expects McKinney to blitz King Green early, noting Green keeps his hands down. He suggests McKinney wins under half a round by KO as a live prop.
AJ thinks McKinney will win by first-round blitz, typical of his style. He notes that if McKinney wins, it's almost certainly round one, and the fight is expected to end in round one. He suggests betting McKinney round one and having a live bet option for later rounds. He also mentions King Green decision at +1300 as a meme bet.
AJ picks McKinney to win by first-round blitz, citing Green's hands-down defense as a major vulnerability against McKinney's explosive start. He believes McKinney's speed and power will catch Green early, and that Green's durability is questionable. AJ notes that if Green survives the initial storm, he could win, but he favors McKinney's early finish.
AJ picks Terrance McKinney, citing Green's three-win streak as weak (decisions over Lance Gibson, Zahuber, and a washed Jeremy Stephens). He worries about Green's low hands and McKinney's blitz, and believes if Green survives the first minute, he becomes a live betting spot. He also notes Green should be the favorite or even odds but is plus 120.
AJ is on the fence about this fight, calling it a 50/50. He notes Green is fun to watch but McKinney's quick slime out is live. He mentions the under 1.5 rounds at minus 360 but does not commit to a winner.
AJ picks Terrance McKinney by first-round finish, citing McKinney's explosive blitzing style and King Green's low-hand defense. He believes McKinney's early onslaught will overwhelm Green, who is nearly 40 and has been knocked out before. He notes that if Green survives the first three minutes, he likely wins, but expects McKinney to land a knockout or submission early.
Angelo picks McKinney due to his early danger and tools, but has low confidence because of respect for King Green's experience and durability. He notes McKinney has never seen a third round and tends to gas. He thinks McKinney wins early or loses.
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney because he is more talented, faster, and hits harder. He acknowledges King Green is the better fighter in terms of experience and high-level competition, but believes McKinney's raw talent and athleticism will overwhelm Green early. He expects the fight not to last long and thinks the odds should be closer.
Big Brady picks the under 1.5 rounds, noting that all 13 of Terrance McKinney's UFC fights have gone under 1.5 rounds. He highlights McKinney's extreme first-round finishing ability but poor cardio, leading to a likely early finish either by McKinney or King Green. He suggests McKinney wins under 0.5 rounds if he wins, but does not pick a side on the moneyline.
Big Brady does not pick a winner but bets on the under 0.5 rounds at +200 for 1 unit, citing McKinney's 13-13 record under 1.5 rounds and his tendency to either finish early or get finished. He also includes the under 1.5 rounds in a parlay. He does not explicitly pick a fighter to win, focusing on the round total.
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round knockout. He likes McKinney's forward pressure and power, and criticizes King Green's hands-down style, which has led to knockouts before. He notes McKinney's cardio issues but believes he will finish within the first two and a half minutes. He thinks Green's recent wins are over lower-level competition.
Big Brady is confident McKinney wins by early knockout, likely in the first minute or two. He notes Green's hands-down style is dangerous against McKinney's pressure. He points out that McKinney has never won a fight lasting more than 2.5 minutes in the UFC, and if he doesn't finish early, he often gets finished himself. He plans to bet the under if the price is right, expecting people to bet the over as a 'sick fetish'.
Cody picks Bobby Green, emphasizing McKinney's lack of heart and durability. He believes Green's experience, power, and submission game will be key. He notes Green's ability to survive the initial onslaught and then take over.
Daniel Levi picks Bobby Green to weather the storm and finish Terrance McKinney, despite Green's age (39). He compares the matchup to McKinney's fight with Eshmael Bonfam, where Bonfam was boxing McKinney up before getting caught. Levi acknowledges McKinney's kill-or-be-killed style and notes that both fighters could win inside the distance, but he has a soft spot for Green and expects him to find a finish.
Jacob picks King Green because he believes McKinney is not that good and can be overwhelmed early. He notes that Green has wrestling of his own and knows how to weather the storm. He thinks Green is a better fighter and if he survives the early onslaught, he will win. He also mentions that McKinney has no cardio and no chin, and that Green is a precise counter boxer.
Lucrative James leans toward Terrance McKinney via KO, calling the fight a coin flip due to McKinney's explosive but inconsistent style. He believes McKinney's athleticism and speed will overwhelm an aging Bobby Green, whose chin is fading. He suggests betting on under 1.5 rounds or specific round-one finishes rather than the moneyline.
The host loves playing McKinney under 1.5 rounds because they always hit. He expects McKinney's speed, explosivity, and power to find the chin of Green early, resulting in a round one knockout.
The host picks McKinney by first-round knockout, citing his power and the fact that all his UFC fights have ended under 1.5 rounds. He recommends betting the under 1.5 rounds regardless of the price, as McKinney's volatility makes the moneyline risky.
Paul picks Bobby Green at plus money, viewing it as a coin flip. He notes McKinney's wild style and tendency to fade, while Green has power and submission threats. He also plans to bet under 1.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney to win by KO in the first round. He notes McKinney's speed and power, and criticizes Bobby Green's hands-down defense. He thinks McKinney will be too dangerous early and will chin Green. He also mentions a personal anecdote about McKinney's strength.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 13 of 27 | 48% | 12 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 22 |
| Kyle Nelson | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 13 of 27 | 48% | 12 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 22 |
| Kyle Nelson | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: McKinney (-170); Nelson (+140)
Round 1
If Sherdog still ran the annual All-Violence Team, “T.Wrecks” McKinney (17-8, 7-5 UFC) would likely be a lifetime member, as he has never gone the distance as a pro. He will get to trade blows with Canada’s Nelson (17-6-1, 5-5-1 UFC) in what should be a banger. The lightweights draw oversight from referee Herb Dean, who has donned his proverbial hard hat ahead of what’s about to come. There is not a glove touch before the trail of devastation begins.
In five seconds, McKinney lands three punches and gets Nelson’s attention, tripping during the third when his lead leg gets kicked. Nelson swings back but whiffs, and
McKinney boots him in the raised guard 11 seconds in and puts the Canadian down on the ground. McKinney pounces, and he proceeds to beat Nelson down with a seemingly unending barrage of right hands and hammerfists.
Nelson shells up and is protecting his face from the worst of the damage, but McKinney is the bus that couldn’t slow down and continues clobbering Nelson while Dean is right there watching on. As McKinney keeps sledgehammering “The Monster,” and Dean has no choice to intervene as Nelson is not intelligently defending himself or moving in a way to improve his position. Upwards of 20 blows connect before Dean halts the content, and “T.Wrecks” has done it again. It will not set a new personal record—that will remain with his seven-second destructions of Matt Frevola and Jeff Coleman—but it is another first-round stoppage on his ledger and a very small amount of work after a lengthy camp.
The Official Result
Terrance McKinney def. Kyle Nelson R1 0:24 via TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging his cardio and chin issues. He believes McKinney is the better striker, wrestler, and more powerful, and hopes he puts on a show at home. He admits he went against his own rule of not betting on McKinney and placed a half-unit bet at -141.
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round knockout. He expects a car crash of a fight, noting both fighters lack durability and have been finished often. He believes McKinney's early pressure and power will be too much for Kyle Nelson, who has been finished in four losses. He thinks McKinney will knock him out in the first few minutes.
Cody picks Nelson, believing McKinney's early explosiveness will fade and Nelson's durability and cardio will take over. He also mentions inside information from Nelson's training partner.
Connor picks Nelson, noting that McKinney is only dangerous in the first round and concedes when he can't get an immediate finish. He points out that McKinney has only won one fight outside the first three minutes in his entire career. Nelson is susceptible early but if he survives, McKinney gives up. Connor says you can't pick a competent fighter to lose to McKinney.
Daniel acknowledges McKinney's first-round finishing ability but is wary of his tendency to fade if he doesn't get the early KO. He picks McKinney but suggests live betting Nelson if the fight goes past two minutes.
The host sees this as a coin flip: McKinney is explosive and dangerous early but has terrible cardio and has never been to a decision; Nelson is slow and hittable but has power and can survive the first round. The implied probabilities (65-40) offer no margin on either side, so the host passes entirely.
The host expects McKinney's explosive power and early aggression to overwhelm Nelson, leading to a first-round knockout. He notes McKinney's tendency to finish early and that all his UFC fights have ended under 1.5 rounds. He is less confident in betting McKinney straight due to his style's volatility but likes the under 1.5 rounds prop.
Paul agrees, noting McKinney's history of gassing and Nelson's ability to survive early storms. He expects Nelson to win after the first round.
The MMA Guru picks Kyle Nelson using reverse psychology, as he often picks McKinney to win by first-round TKO but McKinney fumbles. He believes McKinney will wobble Nelson early but then fade, allowing Nelson to take over in the second and third rounds with elbows and pressure. He notes McKinney's inconsistency.
Zane agrees, stating that McKinney's pattern is clear: he comes in keyed up and if he doesn't finish early, he gives up. He compares McKinney to the ID of fighters like McGregor and Pyfer. Nelson is a competent fighter who can survive the early storm. Zane notes that Nelson could lose if he gets caught early, but otherwise McKinney has no answer.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Duncan | 1 | 38 of 55 | 69% | 53 of 75 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Duncan | 1 | 38 of 55 | 69% | 53 of 75 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 31 of 57 | 54% | 26 of 50 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 45 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 |
| Chris Duncan | 38 of 55 | 69% | 36 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 20 | 6 of 8 | 22 of 27 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 31 of 57 | 54% | 26 of 50 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 45 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 |
| Chris Duncan | 38 of 55 | 69% | 36 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 20 | 6 of 8 | 22 of 27 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Duncan (-170), McKinney (+142)
Round 1
Marc Goddard is the referee. McKinney walks Duncan into the fence and lands a massive knee followed by a head kick. That sets off a wild exchange where McKinney appears to get the best of the brawl by rocking his adversary with several heavy punches. A rocked Duncan wisely shoots out of desperation, and he somehow gets McKinney down. McKinney is up in short order, and he lands an elbow and a knee. Duncan, who still looks to be on shaky legs, somehow rocks McKinney with a right hand at range. They continue to trade with reckless aggression and just when it seems like Duncan is reeling, he rocks his foe with a wicked elbow in close quarters. McKinney crumbles to the floor and Duncan tees off with a series of unanswered punches. Goddard is taking a close look as the assault continues. Duncan’s punches aren’t especially powerful, though, so McKinney is getting some leeway. McKinney doesn’t seem to have much left, and the Scot decides to shift gears.
Duncan locks up an anaconda choke and applies the squeeze. McKinney taps in short order
, ending a wild bout that lived up to its violence potential.
The Official Result
Chris Duncan def. Terrance McKinney via Submission (Anaconda Choke) R1 2:30
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging his poor durability and cardio. He believes McKinney is incredibly dangerous early and can get the fight to the ground to find a finish. He notes that Chris Duncan is extremely durable and often comes back from being hurt, but Angelo thinks McKinney's early explosiveness will be enough. He advises against betting due to the high risk.
Big Brady picks Chris Duncan, noting McKinney's tendency to fade after early bursts and his seven career finishes. He highlights Duncan's improved ground game and chin, and expects Duncan to weather the early storm and knock out McKinney late in the first round.
Cody leans toward McKinney, citing his explosive start and finishing ability. He notes that McKinney's fights are usually over in the first round and that Duncan has shown a questionable chin. He mentions that if McKinney doesn't finish early, Duncan's cardio advantage could come into play, but he trusts McKinney's early burst.
Connor picks Chris Duncan, noting that Duncan has improved significantly at ATT, developing a calm, consistent striking game with good shot selection and power. He contrasts McKinney's all-gas-no-brakes style that fades after two minutes, and believes Duncan has the answers to McKinney's early blitz.
Daniel picks Duncan, reasoning that if he survives McKinney's first-round onslaught, he will take over. He notes McKinney has never been past the first round and fades, while Duncan has shown durability and finishing ability. He sees Duncan winning by knockout or submission in later rounds.
Lucrative James acknowledges his bias as a friend of Chris Duncan but provides detailed reasoning. He believes McKinney's only chance is an early finish, while Duncan's physicality, cardio, and improving grappling defense will carry him through. He notes Duncan's training with Grant Dawson and focus on back-take defense. He predicts Duncan wins inside the distance, likely by KO.
The host acknowledges the recent love for McKinney but expects Duncan to take advantage of McKinney's overaggressive style and find a finish within one and a half rounds.
Paul picks Duncan, emphasizing his multiple paths to victory. He notes that McKinney's win condition is a first-round finish, while Duncan has power, a guillotine choke, and cardio. He mentions that Duncan trains at American Top Team and has prepared for McKinney's wrestling. He believes if McKinney doesn't finish early, Duncan will take over.
The Guru picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging Duncan may be the better fighter. He believes McKinney's speed and first-round explosiveness will catch Duncan, who is hittable early. The Guru predicts a first-round TKO, possibly in the first minute.
Zane picks Chris Duncan, emphasizing that McKinney has never won a UFC fight outside the first two minutes and loses when his initial blitz fails. He notes Duncan's improved striking and power, and believes Duncan can weather the early storm and take over. Zane thinks the odds should be wider in Duncan's favor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: McKinney (-185), Borshchev (+154)
Round 1
Fans should be treated to a delight with this lightweight smash-em-up derby. In the one corner stands McKinney (16-7, 6-4 UFC), who has reached the third round just one time in 23 pro outings. In the other is brick-fisted Team Alpha Male product Borshchev (8-5-1, 3-4-1 UFC), who is looking to even his promotional record to .500 should he get his hand raised tonight. Bettors and prognosticators expect this one should not hear the final bell, with odds hovering around -800 to -900 that it ends inside the distance. If that is the case, referee Chris Tognoni will need to be on his A game to intervene at a moment’s notice. Gloves are touched before they are traded.
Borshchev introduces himself with a spinning back kick that plants on the ribcage of McKinney, who then shoots for a double that sends them flying. McKinney gets on top and wraps up an anaconda choke as soon as they hit the ground, and Borshchev is in the danger zone in a hurry.
“T. Wrecks” uses the submission to roll the Team Alpha Male fighter over to his back, where he assumes full mount and transitions to a guillotine choke. The choke is fastened as tight as can be, and Borshchev has his arms trapped and flails his legs to try to buck himself out. His head starts to turn a shade of red that matches McKinney’s shorts, and before he is put to sleep, he surrenders.
Just like that, the fight is over, and McKinney stands up, looks at the camera and smiles while shrugging. The fighters hug it out after the brief but emphatic performance, waiting nearly as long for the official decision to be read as it took for McKinney to win the fight.
The Official Result
Terrance McKinney def. Viacheslav Borshchev R1 0:55 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney because he believes McKinney's early explosiveness will overwhelm Viacheslav Borshchev, who is older and may not be as durable as before. He notes that McKinney is reliable in that he either finishes early or loses, and he thinks McKinney will come out like a bat out of hell and get the job done. However, he admits he is picking against Borshchev more than for McKinney, and he will monitor the odds for a good betting spot.
Big Brady acknowledges McKinney is the rightful favorite due to his wrestling and power, but he is hesitant because both fighters have questionable durability. He notes Borshchev has terrible takedown defense and was dropped by Chase Hooper, but McKinney's cardio is atrocious and his durability is also suspect. Brady thinks McKinney will land first and win by first-round knockout, but if it leaves the first round, McKinney is in trouble.
Connor picks McKinney, acknowledging Borshchev's durability but noting that Borshchev has been getting worse and more indecisive. McKinney's early explosiveness should catch Borshchev, and if he finishes early, he wins. However, Connor admits it's a risky pick.
The host notes McKinney's tendency for early finishes, but picks Borshchev to fend off the early grappling and get a TKO finish by the end of the first or early second round.
The host picks Terrance McKinney, citing his underrated grappling as the X-factor. He notes that Borshchev has shown weaknesses in grappling, as seen in his losses to Chase Hooper and others. However, he acknowledges McKinney's tendency to get knocked out spectacularly and sees the fight as a 50/50 on the feet. He believes McKinney will use his wrestling to secure a win.
Zane picks Borshchev, reasoning that McKinney only wins if he finishes in the first round, and Borshchev has never been finished early. Borshchev's durability and McKinney's tendency to fade give Borshchev the edge if he survives the initial onslaught.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 54 of 69 | 78% | 69 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:00 |
| Damir Hadžović | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 54 of 69 | 78% | 69 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:00 |
| Damir Hadžović | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 54 of 69 | 78% | 53 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 51 |
| Damir Hadžović | 4 of 13 | 30% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 54 of 69 | 78% | 53 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 51 |
| Damir Hadžović | 4 of 13 | 30% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Lightweights step into the spotlight for the first time, as McKinney (15-7, 5-4 UFC) toes the line against Hadzovic (14-7, 4-5 UFC)—the oldest fighter on the card at 38 years of age. Jason Herzog handles the refereeing duties. We get underway with a glove touch. Body kick from McKinney, followed by a glancing head kick. Two-punch volley from Hadzovic. One-two from McKinney backs up the Bosnian. Hadzovic answers and shoots on a takedown.
McKinney catches a guillotine on the way down and rolls into full mount and unleashes vicious 12-to-6 elbows. He settles on the back and fires away with punches from both hands, prompting the stoppage
.
The Official Result
Terrance McKinney def. Damir Hadzovic—TKO (Punches) 2:01 R1
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite his unreliability, citing his superior talent, wrestling, and striking. He notes that Damir Hadžović is older (38) and not as dangerous. He worries about McKinney's cardio and chin but believes he should win early. He suggests looking at round props rather than betting the moneyline at -335.
Big Brady sees this as an easy matchup for Terrance McKinney, who has great wrestling and BJJ. Damir Hadžović has the worst takedown defense in the UFC and has been submitted before. Brady thinks McKinney will take him down and submit him in the first round, though he notes McKinney has terrible cardio if the fight extends. He predicts a first-round submission.
McKinney has a massive grappling advantage and will look to get the fight to the ground immediately. He is expected to take the back and secure a first-round submission, as he has done in all nine of his UFC fights. The fight is predicted to go under 1.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney to win by TKO in the first round. He believes McKinney has finishing potential while Hadžović does not, and that Hadžović is past his prime and likely to be decisioned. He notes McKinney's losses are brutal but expects him to get the job done here.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Terrance McKinney | 1 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Terrance McKinney | 1 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 5 of 18 | 27% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Terrance McKinney | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 5 of 18 | 27% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Terrance McKinney | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ribovics (-175), McKinney (+145)
Round 1
The matchmakers made sure at least one fight on the billing would practically promise bonkers action for as long as it lasts, and this is that bout. In 21 pro outings, McKinney (15-6, 5-3 UFC) has never heard the final bell, while Ribovics (12-1, 1-1 UFC) has gone the distance twice after 13 appearances. Referee Gary Copeland has donned his hard hat for what could be a wild and crazy first round, although it starts with a calm glove touch. McKinney immediately opens up with a one-two, and he takes a low kick and throws back hard. Ribovics sits down on a power punch, and he absorbs a flush combination and catches McKinney with a knee when “T. Wrecks” bends over. McKinney connects with a right hand, and
Ribovics tosses out a few punches, reaches with a right hand and sets up one of the most beautiful head kicks one can muster as it collides square into McKinney’s head. McKinney is out cold as soon as the shin makes contact, and he collapses lifelessly to his seat as his back bounces into the fence behind him.
Blood leaks out of his nose as he sits there, totally unconscious. Ribovics knows that he does not need to do anything else today, and he proudly walks away as Copeland tends to the snoozing lightweight. Wow, what a finish! “Knockout of the Year” has one more contender in an already crowded list with that absolute gem, and Ribovics has officially announced himself to the lightweight division in a massive way.
The Official Result
Esteban Ribovics def. Terrance McKinney R1 0:37 via KO (Head Kick)
Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as the more durable and dependable fighter, despite Terrance McKinney's raw talent and explosiveness. He notes Ribovics has been taken down 14 times in his last five fights, but McKinney has been finished in every loss. He acknowledges the fight is close to 50/50 and that McKinney could win if he lands early.
Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics to survive McKinney's early storm and finish him in the late first or second round by knockout. He notes McKinney has never won a UFC fight past the first round and tends to gas if he doesn't finish early. Ribovics has durability, cardio, heart, and finishing ability. He expects McKinney to try wrestling, but if he doesn't finish, he will fade and get finished himself.
Cody picks Ribovics, noting that McKinney is a 'glass cannon' who gasses after the first round. He expects McKinney to come out fast and possibly take Ribovics down early, but Ribovics has shown he can survive and come back. Cody likes the under 1.5 rounds prop as parlay fodder, as McKinney fights are usually short. He suggests live betting Ribovics if McKinney wins the first round.
Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics, noting that McKinney is dangerous in the first round but fades if he doesn't get the finish. He believes Ribovics can survive the early onslaught and take over late, getting a finish. He mentions Ribovics' ability to get back to his feet and his late-round power.
The host expects McKinney's early explosiveness to overwhelm Ribovics, likely via knockout in round 1. He notes McKinney's tendency to gas but believes Ribovics' takedown defense issues will be exploited. He strongly recommends the under 1.5 rounds as a must-play, and also likes McKinney round 1 prop. The pick is confident for the early finish, though he acknowledges the risk if McKinney fails.
Paul picks Ribovics, agreeing that McKinney is a first-round specialist who fades. He notes that Ribovics has a strong chin and cardio, and can take McKinney's best shots. Paul expects Ribovics to survive the early storm and take over in the second round. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds prop due to McKinney's tendency to finish or get finished quickly.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney as an underdog over Esteban Ribovics. He notes that McKinney has a wrestling background he doesn't always use but can rely on, and that Ribovics is hook-heavy with a reach disadvantage. He references Ribovics' fight with Kamuela Kirk where Kirk took him down and controlled him, suggesting McKinney can do the same. He also trusts McKinney's cardio and power on the feet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 1 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Brendon Marotte | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 1 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Brendon Marotte | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 19 |
| Brendon Marotte | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 19 |
| Brendon Marotte | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: McKinney (-450), Marotte (+300)
Round 1
Lightweights are next to the stage, as McKinney (14-6, 4-3 UFC) squares off with the once-beaten Marotte (8-1, 0-0 UFC)—a short-notice substitution for Chris Duncan. Marotte, 26, has won three fights in a row. Herb Dean answers the call to preside over the match.
McKinney connects with a clean knee strike in their first exchange, and Marotte hits the deck in a horrendous start to his promotional debut. McKinney trails him to the canvas and unleashes a string of unanswered punches that necessitate a quick stoppage
.
The Official Result
Terrance McKinney def. Brendon Marotte—TKO (Knee and Punches) 0:20 R1
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round submission. He notes McKinney is dangerous early with power and wrestling, while Marotte is a big step up in competition and may not survive the first round. He warns that if Marotte survives, he could win, but expects McKinney to get it done quickly.
Cody picks McKinney, emphasizing that Marotte is a huge underdog with no recent fights and a shaky defense. He notes that McKinney's pressure and power are likely to overwhelm Marotte early. Cody suggests that if Marotte survives the first round, he could be live, but he doubts that will happen.
The host picks Terrance McKinney by round one, noting his explosive power and fast starts. He highlights that 19 of 20 McKinney fights finished under 1.5 rounds. However, he warns against the moneyline due to cardio issues and suggests taking McKinney round one or under 1.5 rounds.
Paul picks McKinney, noting his explosive first-round power and the fact that Marotte has no recent tape and is stepping in on short notice. He acknowledges McKinney's cardio issues but believes Marotte is not durable enough to survive the first round. Paul suggests betting McKinney round 1 or Marotte round 2 as value plays.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney to win by TKO over Brendan Marotte. He dismisses Marotte as an awful regional fighter who beat an 11-20 opponent and went to a split decision with an 8-4 fighter. He notes Marotte trains at New England Cartel but lacks quality wins. He believes McKinney has a speed advantage and won't be outgrappled, and that Marotte's short notice and lack of durability will lead to a finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 30 of 47 | 63% | 23 of 36 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 30 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 |
| Mike Breeden | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 30 of 47 | 63% | 23 of 36 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 30 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 |
| Mike Breeden | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: McKinney (-270), Breeden (+220)
Round 1
Referee Chris Tognoni is on the highest of alerts for this lightweight preliminary clash, one that could end in the blink of an eye. A 19-fight veteran, McKinney (13-6, 3-3 UFC) has still never gone the distance, and his foe Breeden (10-5, 0-2 UFC) is no stranger to the knockout himself. Little more needs to be said other than that these two fighters sportingly touch hands before getting after it. McKinney pressures forward immediately, landing a right hand and changing levels for a single. McKinney lets it go and slings a head kick, and it bounds off the guard as Breeden ricochets off the fencing. Breeden comes back at him, and McKinney aims another head kick his way. Breeden kicks the ribs, and McKinney catches it and thinks about taking the fight down, but he releases it so that he can sling a right hand. Breeden throws a right hand, and McKinney blasts him in the body and bends Breeden over. Breeden is in a bad way, and he gets pounded with strikes as McKinney pounces on him. Breeden tries to take him down, but McKinney shuts him down and knees him several times to the chest and midsection.
Breeden is barely still with it, as he gets smashed with punches and knees. Breeden tries to escape, but McKinney is on him, unleashing a fury of fists until Tognoni leaps in between them to stop the fight.
This was a much-needed victory for the promising “T. Wrecks,” who reminds the division that he is still very much here and a force to be reckoned with.
The Official Result
Terrance McKinney def. Mike Breeden R1 1:25 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks McKinney but with low confidence due to cardio concerns and the short-notice turnaround. He notes McKinney has solid wrestling and BJJ but gasses and has a questionable chin. He is staying away from the -400 odds but suggests prop bets like McKinney winning the first round or getting more takedowns.
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by knockout early in the first round, likely within 60 seconds. He notes McKinney's dangerous striking and wrestling but acknowledges his poor cardio and short-notice fight. He believes McKinney will finish Breeden quickly, as Breeden has awful takedown defense and has been finished before. However, he cautions that if McKinney doesn't finish in the first round, he is likely to lose.
Cody picks Breeden by second-round finish as a prop bet, not on the moneyline. He notes McKinney's notorious cardio issues and short-notice fight (27 days after his last fight). He thinks if Breeden survives the first round, he will take over. He recommends a small sprinkle on Breeden round 2 at long odds, or live betting after the first round.
James is leaning toward Breeden as a value play, noting McKinney is a round-one-or-bust fighter and is priced at -300. He thinks Breeden is tough with good cardio and could survive the early storm. James admits McKinney could get back on track but feels the odds are too high for such a volatile fighter. He might bet Breeden.
McKinney has cardio issues but is extremely powerful and athletic early. Breeden is coming off a long layoff and camp change. McKinney's under 1.5 rounds streak is 18 of 19 fights, so the under is a strong play. McKinney should get the TKO in the first round due to his speed and power.
Paul also likes Breeden as a live underdog or round 2/3 prop. He notes McKinney's cardio fades after the first round and that Breeden has shown good cardio in past fights, especially in the third round against Natan Levy. He thinks Breeden can survive the initial onslaught and take over later. He recommends a small bet on Breeden round 2 or 3.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney but is hesitant, acknowledging McKinney's cardio issues and tendency to gas after round one. He believes McKinney is the better fighter and should win by first-round KO if he fights aggressively, but warns that if the fight goes past round one, Breeden could take over. He suggests a live bet on Breeden if McKinney gasses.
Kyle Nelson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 13 of 27 | 48% | 12 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 22 |
| Kyle Nelson | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 13 of 27 | 48% | 12 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 22 |
| Kyle Nelson | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: McKinney (-170); Nelson (+140)
Round 1
If Sherdog still ran the annual All-Violence Team, “T.Wrecks” McKinney (17-8, 7-5 UFC) would likely be a lifetime member, as he has never gone the distance as a pro. He will get to trade blows with Canada’s Nelson (17-6-1, 5-5-1 UFC) in what should be a banger. The lightweights draw oversight from referee Herb Dean, who has donned his proverbial hard hat ahead of what’s about to come. There is not a glove touch before the trail of devastation begins.
In five seconds, McKinney lands three punches and gets Nelson’s attention, tripping during the third when his lead leg gets kicked. Nelson swings back but whiffs, and
McKinney boots him in the raised guard 11 seconds in and puts the Canadian down on the ground. McKinney pounces, and he proceeds to beat Nelson down with a seemingly unending barrage of right hands and hammerfists.
Nelson shells up and is protecting his face from the worst of the damage, but McKinney is the bus that couldn’t slow down and continues clobbering Nelson while Dean is right there watching on. As McKinney keeps sledgehammering “The Monster,” and Dean has no choice to intervene as Nelson is not intelligently defending himself or moving in a way to improve his position. Upwards of 20 blows connect before Dean halts the content, and “T.Wrecks” has done it again. It will not set a new personal record—that will remain with his seven-second destructions of Matt Frevola and Jeff Coleman—but it is another first-round stoppage on his ledger and a very small amount of work after a lengthy camp.
The Official Result
Terrance McKinney def. Kyle Nelson R1 0:24 via TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging his cardio and chin issues. He believes McKinney is the better striker, wrestler, and more powerful, and hopes he puts on a show at home. He admits he went against his own rule of not betting on McKinney and placed a half-unit bet at -141.
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round knockout. He expects a car crash of a fight, noting both fighters lack durability and have been finished often. He believes McKinney's early pressure and power will be too much for Kyle Nelson, who has been finished in four losses. He thinks McKinney will knock him out in the first few minutes.
Cody picks Nelson, believing McKinney's early explosiveness will fade and Nelson's durability and cardio will take over. He also mentions inside information from Nelson's training partner.
Connor picks Nelson, noting that McKinney is only dangerous in the first round and concedes when he can't get an immediate finish. He points out that McKinney has only won one fight outside the first three minutes in his entire career. Nelson is susceptible early but if he survives, McKinney gives up. Connor says you can't pick a competent fighter to lose to McKinney.
Daniel acknowledges McKinney's first-round finishing ability but is wary of his tendency to fade if he doesn't get the early KO. He picks McKinney but suggests live betting Nelson if the fight goes past two minutes.
The host sees this as a coin flip: McKinney is explosive and dangerous early but has terrible cardio and has never been to a decision; Nelson is slow and hittable but has power and can survive the first round. The implied probabilities (65-40) offer no margin on either side, so the host passes entirely.
The host expects McKinney's explosive power and early aggression to overwhelm Nelson, leading to a first-round knockout. He notes McKinney's tendency to finish early and that all his UFC fights have ended under 1.5 rounds. He is less confident in betting McKinney straight due to his style's volatility but likes the under 1.5 rounds prop.
Paul agrees, noting McKinney's history of gassing and Nelson's ability to survive early storms. He expects Nelson to win after the first round.
The MMA Guru picks Kyle Nelson using reverse psychology, as he often picks McKinney to win by first-round TKO but McKinney fumbles. He believes McKinney will wobble Nelson early but then fade, allowing Nelson to take over in the second and third rounds with elbows and pressure. He notes McKinney's inconsistency.
Zane agrees, stating that McKinney's pattern is clear: he comes in keyed up and if he doesn't finish early, he gives up. He compares McKinney to the ID of fighters like McGregor and Pyfer. Nelson is a competent fighter who can survive the early storm. Zane notes that Nelson could lose if he gets caught early, but otherwise McKinney has no answer.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Nelson | 1 | 63 of 135 | 46% | 92 of 170 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:11 |
| Matt Frevola | 0 | 43 of 136 | 31% | 60 of 155 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 1:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Nelson | 1 | 23 of 55 | 41% | 30 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Matt Frevola | 0 | 15 of 54 | 27% | 19 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 2 | Kyle Nelson | 0 | 29 of 57 | 50% | 32 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Frevola | 0 | 21 of 69 | 30% | 22 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 3 | Kyle Nelson | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 30 of 46 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
| Matt Frevola | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 19 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Nelson | 63 of 135 | 46% | 41 of 103 | 14 of 23 | 8 of 9 | 46 of 106 | 7 of 14 | 10 of 15 |
| Matt Frevola | 43 of 136 | 31% | 23 of 103 | 10 of 20 | 10 of 13 | 39 of 129 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Nelson | 23 of 55 | 41% | 17 of 47 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 37 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 15 |
| Matt Frevola | 15 of 54 | 27% | 7 of 37 | 4 of 10 | 4 of 7 | 13 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kyle Nelson | 29 of 57 | 50% | 18 of 39 | 6 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 27 of 51 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Frevola | 21 of 69 | 30% | 13 of 58 | 3 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 66 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kyle Nelson | 11 of 23 | 47% | 6 of 17 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 18 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Frevola | 7 of 13 | 53% | 3 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Frevola (-115); Nelson (+100)
Round 1
To kick off the main card now, two flamethrowing lightweights in desperate need of a win will collide, and referee Dan Miragliotta better don his proverbial hard hat when these two let loose. The finish rates for Nelson (16-6-1, 4-5-1 UFC) and Frevola (11-5-1, 5-5-1 UFC) do not do justice what they have accomplished—and suffered—in the cage. A quick fist bump opens the melee.
Frevola starts things off with a few punches and a leg kick, and the Canadian counters with a right hand over the top. Frevola fires off the same combination, and he stays out of danger from the subsequent right hand aimed at his melon. Frevola swings up a couple head kicks that slide off the guard, and he races in with a looping right hand. Nelson drives him back with a sharp left, and he stabs his foot to Frevola’s torso. When Frevola spins, Nelson sits down on a right hand counter. Both fighters end up slipping on one another and climb back to their feet sheepishly, and it is Frevola who marches down his man and swings two hearty overhand rights. Nelson tanks them well but does not give the American much to think about coming back, allowing Frevola to open up with big, looping strikes. Nelson jabs him back, and slaps “The Steamrolla” in the chin with the ball of his foot.
Frevola advances recklessly, scoring a punch but taking a hard low kick on the way out. Frevola bashes the Canadian in the brainstem with a high kick, and he pump-fakes a knee to hurl a right hand at his man. Nelson sticks his fist out to catch Frevola coming in, so Frevola ducks under, lifts Nelson in the air and slams him down like a sack of potatoes. Nelson hits his knees and looks to stand, so Frevola counters with a guillotine choke setup and a knee to the ribs. Nelson gives his back up, and Frevola takes it and then jumps off so he does not slide off and end up in the wrong spot. Leaning on Nelson, he exudes heavy pressure and knees him in the guts. Nelson spins him around and smacks him with an uppercut, only for Frevola to meet it with a knee. Nelson wings a huge right hand that shakes Frevola up, and this results in a furious brawl where Nelson catches his man a second time and puts him on the canvas. Nelson starts hammering Frevola with his free right hand, and as damage mounts, Miragliotta starts to lean in. The Canadian keeps clubbing Frevola with his same fist again and again, and it appears that Frevola is knocked out and knocked back into consciousness. Miragliotta steps in with seconds to spare, and the fight is over. Until it isn’t. In what may be a worse failure of officiating than the recent Magny-Matthews UFC Perth debacle, somehow the fight is still on, and Frevola gets a minute to recover on his stool. The fight, somehow, continues.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Nelson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nelson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Nelson
Round 2
The arena is filled with chants cursing out Miragliotta for stealing a knockout win from their fighter, and Round 2 is upon us. Frevola is still stung from the concussive blows he received at the end of the first round, and Nelson takes advantage of that with crisp combinations and a head kick. Every second Frevola remains in this match that should already be over is one more second that he could steal a win. Frevola gathers his thoughts and replies back from the offense with some body work. Nelson has the upper hand with Frevola still wobbled, and he chases him around the Octagon and connects hard on him. Frevola scampers away, so the Canadian gives chase.
Frevola starts to get his bearings more as time progresses, with Nelson’s power appearing to fade a bit, and Frevola does work to the midsection. Nelson chews up the front leg with his kicks, and he stings Frevola with power punches. Frevola gets more comfortable and launches high-amplitude attacks at his adversary. Nelson beats Frevola to the punch frequently and repeatedly, popping Frevola with straight punches and distant kicks. Once more, the round ends, even though this fight should already be over given that the replay clearly showed three seconds on the clock at the end of the first round when Miragliotta put hands on the fighters to separate them. According to the referee, he heard the horn, but it never blew. It does this time.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nelson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nelson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nelson
Round 3
Nelson, with a full head of steam, wants to punish his opponent for still being in this match all this time. Brutalizing the body like a side of beef, Nelson kicks him again and again as Frevola doubles over. Nelson’s kicks open up one to the head, and he rocks Frevola badly. Frevola stumbles around, and Nelson pops him in the chops with a front kick and several power punches. The New Yorker is tough as nails but has been knocked out at least once tonight and has likely received a great deal of brain damage from this mess of a fight. Frevola steels himself, takes everything Nelson throws at him and tries to swing back valiantly. Frevola’s swings have a lot less mustard on them, but he breaks things up by shooting in for a takedown and putting the Canadian on his back.
Nelson has a lot more energy than his adversary, allowing him to scramble out of the bad position and work to his feet. Nelson batters Frevola to the wire, and he uses his momentum to drag Frevola to the floor. Nelson sits up on top in a high mount position, smacking Frevola around any time he can find an opening, and as he does, Frevola miraculously manages to sneak out the back door. The two are slippery and fatigued, to say the least, but they still throw punches and elbows at one another. Nelson manages to turn his man over, and when Frevola is about to get up, Nelson mat returns him. Nelson laces his foe’s legs beneath his own, and Frevola scrambles with every bit of energy he last left. Standing up at the 10-second clapper, Frevola spins with an elbow to ding Nelson. Nelson retreats, and the fight finally ends for real this time. It might be time to have a serious conversation about the state of officiating in our sport, as fighters are being robbed of their livelihoods in new, frustrating ways that seemed not to happen until recently.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (30-26 Nelson)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (30-27 Nelson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (30-26 Nelson)
The Official Result
Kyle Nelson def. Matt Frevola via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo leans Matt Frevola as the better fighter with good wrestling and power, but acknowledges Kyle Nelson's durability and power. He expects a finish either way and calls it a 50/50 fight. He picks Frevola but with low confidence.
Big Brady doubts Frevola will wrestle and expects a stand-up brawl. He questions both fighters' chins but thinks Nelson has the better chin and power. He predicts Nelson lands a big shot in the first round, picking a first-round KO.
Cody picks Frevola, citing his wrestling advantage and power. He notes Nelson is moving up from 145 and has struggled against wrestlers. Frevola can take Nelson down and ground-and-pound. Cody believes Frevola's size and grappling will be decisive, but admits low conviction.
Connor picks Nelson, agreeing that Frevola has shown bad signs recently. He notes that Frevola has not looked like he wants to fight in his last few outings. Connor believes Nelson's composure and range fighting will be effective, but acknowledges that Nelson has a history of melting down. He thinks Nelson should be a slight favorite.
James favors Frevola due to his wrestling, cardio, and natural lightweight frame, while Nelson is moving up from featherweight. He acknowledges Frevola's chin issues but believes his wrestling and pace will overwhelm Nelson. James predicts a decision win for Frevola.
The host thinks this fight could be a car crash, but if Frevola plays it safely and avoids Nelson's power, he can easily take the fight to the ground and rinse and repeat that style. He expects Frevola to win by submission or on the scorecards.
Paul picks Nelson, but with zero conviction. He notes both fighters love to brawl and have power. Paul thinks it's a pick'em and expects a finish. He leans Nelson but says it's a coin flip.
The MMA Guru picks Matt Frevola over Kyle Nelson. He acknowledges both are coming off losses but believes Frevola's competition has been tougher and his good moments are better. He thinks Frevola can mix in grappling and takedowns, and that Nelson is too rigid and simple. He predicts a decision win, 30-27.
Zane picks Nelson, citing his improved composure and range fighting. He notes that Nelson has become a cautious, consistent range fighter with good defense. Zane points out that Frevola has looked gun-shy and lacks a fight outside the pocket. He believes Nelson can win by using his jab and staying at range.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Garcia | 0 | 22 of 37 | 59% | 39 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:36 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 31 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Garcia | 0 | 22 of 37 | 59% | 39 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:36 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 31 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Garcia | 22 of 37 | 59% | 20 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 34 |
| Kyle Nelson | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Garcia | 22 of 37 | 59% | 20 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 34 |
| Kyle Nelson | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-192), Nelson (+160)
Round 1
Garcia (16-5, 5-2 UFC) is hungry, and he wants to share his lunch of knuckle sandwiches as the short-notice substitute against Nelson (16-5-1, 4-4-1 UFC). Both men come into this pairing on win streaks, so someone’s momentum is about to come to a grinding halt. Garcia has notably recorded four straight knockouts, a rarity for the weight class. This bout will officially take place at 149 pounds due to the Canadian missing weight, but that should not preclude the two from slugging it out as expected. Gloves are not touched under the watchful eye of referee Mark Smith, and instead they want to fight. Garcia lets fly a kick and a few punches, and he gets pushed back to the wall and trips. Nelson jumps on top to take Garcia’s back in a hurry, and he gets both hooks in without effort. Garcia hand-fights to prevent Nelson from setting up a submission, so the Canadian smacks him in the forehead several times. Nelson tries to set up the body triangle, but Garcia is able to fight off the first setup while he twists to one side and uses two-on-one wrist control. Garcia explodes to spin around, and he falls into an armbar. Garcia unloads with punches with his free arm, and he strikes his way out of the submission and lets Nelson have it with an onslaught of punches and elbows. Nelson turns to his side and shells up, and he slows Garcia down. Garcia elects to grind his elbow on the cheek, and he thumps it down every so often. Garcia slams down a few punches, and he nails Nelson with an elbow that makes Nelson turn to turtle up. As Garcia unleashes a fury, Nelson keeps his wits about him and kicks off Garcia to force him upright. Garcia leaps down and elbows Nelson in the back of the head, and a lump develops in a hurry. Nelson sits up with his back to the cage, and Garcia rails him with an elbow that makes Nelson crumble to his side. Garcia releases a final flurry of elbows and punches, and Smith sees that Nelson is no longer defending himself and intervenes. Nelson tries to stand back up after the fight has been called off, and Smith is there to make sure he does not fall over. This is a statement performance for the ultraviolent Garcia, who has earned five straight knockouts and pounds his way into contender status.
The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Kyle Nelson R1 3:59 via TKO (Elbows and Punches)
Angelo picks Steve Garcia because he hits very hard, has good wrestling, and is on a four-fight knockout streak. However, he is hesitant because Kyle Nelson has been looking good lately and has power and toughness. He plans to have very little exposure on this fight if he bets.
Big Brady picks Steve Garcia to win by knockout in round one. He highlights Garcia's four-fight knockout streak and his dog mentality, but acknowledges Garcia gets dropped often. Brady thinks Garcia will get dropped but get back up and finish Nelson. He favors Garcia more as the fight goes into later rounds.
Cody picks Nelson on the moneyline, citing Garcia's poor chin and tendency to get dropped, while Nelson has improved cardio, wrestling, and durability. He notes Garcia's wins are often against tired or compromised opponents, and that Nelson's pressure and pace can overwhelm Garcia. He sees value at plus money and is confident Nelson can win.
Daniel acknowledges Kyle Nelson's improved style but thinks Garcia's kill-or-be-killed pressure will force Nelson to fight, potentially bringing back his old issues. He admits he hasn't been good at predicting the new Kyle Nelson, but he picks Garcia to extend his knockout streak. He notes Garcia is a killer who either knocks you out or gets knocked out.
Garcia is on a four-fight KO streak and has awkward angles that could trouble Nelson. Nelson is also on a roll but Garcia's power is a threat. The under 1.5 rounds is the preferred bet, as Garcia tends to finish early. Garcia by first-round KO is the pick.
Paul likes the over 1.5 rounds at +140, believing Nelson's improved cardio and fight IQ will avoid an early knockout. He thinks Nelson can make it competitive and potentially win a decision. He is not confident in betting Garcia at nearly -200, so he leans Nelson but prefers the over prop.
The MMA Guru picks Steve Garcia over Kyle Nelson, citing a bias against Canadian men. He notes Garcia's weird look as an advantage and his training at Jackson Wink and Soul Focus. He mentions Garcia has beaten good opponents like Melquizael Costa and Saimon Oliveira, but was finished by Chase Hooper. He predicts a decision or KO win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 30 of 58 | 51% | 44 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 32 of 59 | 54% | 40 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Nelson | 0 | 30 of 58 | 51% | 44 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 32 of 59 | 54% | 40 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Nelson | 30 of 58 | 51% | 11 of 34 | 11 of 11 | 8 of 13 | 30 of 55 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Bill Algeo | 32 of 59 | 54% | 20 of 45 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 28 of 52 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Nelson | 30 of 58 | 51% | 11 of 34 | 11 of 11 | 8 of 13 | 30 of 55 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Bill Algeo | 32 of 59 | 54% | 20 of 45 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 28 of 52 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo leans Bill Algeo but is not very confident. He highlights Algeo's karate-style striking, high volume, and BJJ black belt, but notes he gets hit a lot. He thinks Kyle Nelson's forward pressure could be tricky. He suggests the over 2.5 rounds as a safer bet, expecting a decision.
Big Brady picks Bill Algeo to win by third-round finish. He notes Algeo is a fast-paced striker who lands over six significant strikes per minute, and expects him to push a pace that Kyle Nelson cannot keep up with. Brady believes Nelson's recent fights have been slow and boring, but Algeo will force him to work and break him late.
Cody likes Algeo's volume, cardio, and durability, believing he can outwork Nelson. He notes Nelson's improved cardio but thinks Algeo's pace and output will be too much, likely winning by decision or late finish.
Daniel Vreeland picks Bill Algeo, citing his high volume and pace. He thinks Algeo's pressure and output will overwhelm Nelson, who has a history of gassing. He notes Nelson's recent style change but believes Algeo won't give him space to rest. He predicts Algeo by decision or late finish.
Algeo is on a 4-1 run with unorthodox movement and effective leg kicks. He picks opponents apart from distance and has solid BJJ. Nelson has improved but still relies on crashing the pocket; Algeo's lateral movement and counters should cause Nelson to chase and slow down. Algeo by decision is likely, with potential for a late finish.
Paul compares this fight to Algeo's win over Corano, expecting Algeo to overwhelm Nelson with volume. He mentions a potential round 3 prop for Algeo but sees decision as most likely.
The host picks Bill Algeo, calling him underrated and tricky. He likes Algeo's win over Joe Anderson Brito and his performance against Andre Fili. He thinks Algeo has more options and will 'weird' Nelson with unorthodox techniques. He predicts a decision win for Algeo.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 72 of 208 | 34% | 73 of 209 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Fernando Padilla | 0 | 82 of 184 | 44% | 83 of 185 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Nelson | 0 | 26 of 82 | 31% | 26 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Fernando Padilla | 0 | 25 of 50 | 50% | 25 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kyle Nelson | 0 | 22 of 59 | 37% | 23 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Fernando Padilla | 0 | 30 of 58 | 51% | 31 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kyle Nelson | 0 | 24 of 67 | 35% | 24 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Fernando Padilla | 0 | 27 of 76 | 35% | 27 of 76 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Nelson | 72 of 208 | 34% | 42 of 168 | 17 of 22 | 13 of 18 | 65 of 198 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Fernando Padilla | 82 of 184 | 44% | 43 of 143 | 19 of 20 | 20 of 21 | 80 of 176 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Nelson | 26 of 82 | 31% | 17 of 68 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 24 of 77 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Fernando Padilla | 25 of 50 | 50% | 12 of 36 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 9 | 25 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kyle Nelson | 22 of 59 | 37% | 11 of 46 | 6 of 6 | 5 of 7 | 19 of 56 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Fernando Padilla | 30 of 58 | 51% | 16 of 43 | 8 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 29 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kyle Nelson | 24 of 67 | 35% | 14 of 54 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 22 of 65 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Fernando Padilla | 27 of 76 | 35% | 15 of 64 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 26 of 71 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Fernando Padilla, noting his accuracy and clinch work will be the difference. He mentions both fighters like gritty pocket fights, which favors Padilla. He wishes the value were better at -241 and plans to monitor the line movement before betting.
Big Brady is confident in Padilla, criticizing Nelson's recent inactivity and poor performances. He believes Padilla will force the action and that Nelson will revert to his old ways of gassing and getting finished. He notes Padilla's power, cardio, and grappling skills, and predicts a third-round knockout.
Cody considers Nelson a live dog due to his durability, wrestling, and experience. He notes Nelson's low volume is a concern but thinks he can make fights close and has power. However, he is not confident enough to bet and may pass, preferring Giagos as a better dog play.
Daniel Levi picks Fernando Padilla but with low confidence, as he is still unsure what Padilla truly is at the UFC level. He notes Padilla's length and toughness but questions his durability over three rounds. Levi believes Kyle Nelson is a known quantity and that Padilla has the power and reach to win, but he did not bet the fight because the jury is still out on Padilla's long-term potential.
Padilla is a finisher with 13 of 15 wins inside the distance, showcasing pinpoint striking and accuracy. Nelson is on a resurgence but relies on striking and has been inconsistent. Padilla has advantages in reach, speed, and jiu-jitsu if the fight goes to the ground. I expect Padilla to utilize combination striking from distance and get a finish, likely by submission in the second round.
Paul picks Padilla but is not confident. He notes Padilla's dynamic offense and volume, but worries about unknowns and Nelson's durability and wrestling. He sees value in Nelson as a dog but ultimately sides with Padilla's speed and finishing ability.
The MMA Guru picks Fernando Padilla over Kyle Nelson, citing Padilla's dangerous striking and 76-inch reach advantage. He notes Padilla's quick TKO of Julian Erosa on short notice and believes he will look even better on a full camp. He mentions Padilla's takedown defense and that he is hard to finish, predicting a decision or finish by Padilla.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 59 of 126 | 46% | 83 of 150 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 |
| Blake Bilder | 0 | 45 of 120 | 37% | 84 of 159 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Nelson | 0 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 28 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Blake Bilder | 0 | 22 of 51 | 43% | 42 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | Kyle Nelson | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 23 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Blake Bilder | 0 | 12 of 30 | 40% | 12 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 | |
| 3 | Kyle Nelson | 0 | 21 of 40 | 52% | 32 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| Blake Bilder | 0 | 11 of 39 | 28% | 30 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Nelson | 59 of 126 | 46% | 24 of 76 | 20 of 31 | 15 of 19 | 57 of 124 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Blake Bilder | 45 of 120 | 37% | 26 of 96 | 2 of 4 | 17 of 20 | 45 of 119 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Nelson | 19 of 47 | 40% | 10 of 33 | 6 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Blake Bilder | 22 of 51 | 43% | 15 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 | 22 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kyle Nelson | 19 of 39 | 48% | 8 of 24 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 7 | 19 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Blake Bilder | 12 of 30 | 40% | 4 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 8 | 12 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kyle Nelson | 21 of 40 | 52% | 6 of 19 | 9 of 12 | 6 of 9 | 21 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Blake Bilder | 11 of 39 | 28% | 7 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 11 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Blake Bilder, citing his superior grappling and technical striking. He notes that Bilder is an aggressive grappler who doesn't take unnecessary risks, and that he should be able to control the fight. He acknowledges Kyle Nelson's decent losses and recent grappling improvements, but still believes Bilder gets the win. He considers Bilder for a safety parlay.
Big Brady picks Blake Bilder to win by third-round TKO. He notes that Bilder is extremely tough and has a high pace, while Kyle Nelson has cardio issues and tends to gas in fast-paced fights. Bilder often gets dropped early but comes back, and Nelson's best chance is wrestling, but his cardio will fail. He expects Bilder to take over late and finish.
Cody picks Blake Bilder, but suggests live betting him after the first round because Nelson may come out aggressively and could knock Bilder out early. He notes that Bilder has good cardio and a solid one-two, but his defense is shaky. He expects Bilder to take Nelson down and outwork him as Nelson tires. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds in this fight.
Connor picks Blake Bilder but is hesitant, noting that the test will come immediately while Bilder is still cold, which could be a prospect loss. He points out that Nelson is a very hard puncher with long reach, and that Bilder's only good sign was against Shane Young, who is not a high-level test. Connor acknowledges that Nelson's opponents tend to be fragile and get knocked out early, but since Bilder hasn't been knocked out yet, he won't pick against him. He thinks the odds movement toward Bilder is notable.
Daniel Levi picks Blake Bilder, citing that Bilder has better boxing, pace, and conditioning than Kyle Nelson. He notes that Nelson has low output and fades, while Bilder has shown a dog mentality and can push a high volume. He acknowledges that Bilder has a questionable chin and has been dropped before, but believes Nelson is too slow and telegraphed to capitalize. He warns against using Bilder as a heavy parlay piece.
James picks Blake Bilder to win but is not confident at -250. He thinks Bilder is more well-rounded and should get takedowns, possibly finding a submission in round two. However, he notes Kyle Nelson has more UFC experience, hits hard early, and is fighting for his job in Canada. James wouldn't be surprised if Nelson gets an early knockout or a split decision. He advises against laying -250 on Bilder as he's not a minus-250 type fighter.
Bilder has excellent lateral movement and a well-rounded game, while Nelson's only path is a puncher's chance. Nelson's attempts to grapple have failed due to poor cardio, and Bilder is the superior grappler. Expect Bilder to use his movement to set up takedowns, eventually finding a late submission. The stylistic matchup heavily favors Bilder.
Paul picks Blake Bilder, noting that Nelson has poor cardio and wrestling. He believes Bilder is the better wrestler and will take Nelson down, especially as Nelson fades. He expects a finish in the second or third round. He also mentions that Nelson's best chance is an early KO, but he thinks Bilder will survive and take over.
The MMA Guru picks Blake Bilder over Kyle Nelson, arguing that Nelson has shown his limit with poor performances and losses to low-level competition. He notes Bilder is undefeated and well-rounded, with a good ground and stand-up game. He believes Bilder's potential is unknown and worth gambling on, expecting him to outpoint Nelson.
Zane picks Blake Bilder, noting that Kyle Nelson is a heavy-handed puncher with good takedowns but tenses up and gasses quickly. He believes Bilder is not as breakable as Nelson's previous opponents, having shown grit against Shane Young by fighting back when pressured. Zane thinks Nelson's grappling safety valve won't work against Bilder, who is a good athlete with surprising power. He acknowledges that Bilder is raw and could face early scares, but trusts his durability.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dooho Choi | 0 | 50 of 78 | 64% | 79 of 114 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 3:58 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 20 of 58 | 34% | 39 of 80 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 5:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dooho Choi | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 15 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:24 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 11 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 | |
| 2 | Dooho Choi | 0 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 30 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 16 of 49 | 32% | 16 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 3 | Dooho Choi | 0 | 23 of 25 | 92% | 34 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:59 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 12 of 15 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dooho Choi | 50 of 78 | 64% | 11 of 37 | 23 of 24 | 16 of 17 | 27 of 54 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 22 |
| Kyle Nelson | 20 of 58 | 34% | 10 of 41 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 7 | 17 of 54 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dooho Choi | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Kyle Nelson | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dooho Choi | 24 of 46 | 52% | 10 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 13 | 23 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Kyle Nelson | 16 of 49 | 32% | 8 of 35 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 6 | 14 of 46 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dooho Choi | 23 of 25 | 92% | 1 of 3 | 21 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 21 |
| Kyle Nelson | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Choi (-190), Nelson (+160)
Round 1
“The Korean Superboy” will look to come back from a three-year hiatus and a three-fight losing streak against Canada’s Nelson, with Chris Tognoni set to officiate. Both men are in orthodox stance as they feel out the distance in the opening moments. Choi lands a hard low kick. Nelson rushes in, hoists Choi by the hips and slams him down, despite a fence grab by the Korean. Nelson wraps up the legs of the seated Choi at the base of the fence. Choi posts his right arm and braces against the cage to try and stand, but Nelson is persistent. Nelson hops onto Choi’s back as Choi stands, sinking a hook as he does. Choi spins and explodes up, but Nelson is right with him. Choi explodes up again, and sweeps to top position, trapping Nelson’s right arm in a crucifix. Nelson frees the arm, but Choi looks for an arm-triangle choke, and is close to moving to side control. Choi gets it and swings out to the side, looking to pin an arm once again. Nelson stuffs Choi back to half-guard. Nelson locks his arms and gets a half-guard lockdown to control Choi’s posture in the final seconds. The round expires.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Round 2
Choi lands a hard low kick, which Nelson answers with a kick to the body. Nelson rocks Choi with a big right hand, then chases down the reeling Choi with a flying knee against the cage. Choi comes forward with a takedown attempt from way outside, then lands a sharp one-two. Nelson shoots a takedown from a mile away and Choi sprawls easily. Choi spins to the back, then disengages and lets Nelson up. They clinch against the fence for a moment as the action slows. Choi lands another chopping low kick, then another. Nelson comes forward with a left kick to the body. Choi goes to the leg again, then sticks Nelson with a right hand up top. Under 90 seconds left and Choi’s low kicks are taking their toll. Choi lands a left to the body. Nelson lends a sweeping, glancing right hook. Nelson comes back with a leg kick of his own. Nelson whiffs on a big right hand as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Round 3
Nelson comes in for a takedown and Choi meets him with a nasty uppercut to the body. Nelson drags Choi down momentarily, but Choi springs right back up. Nelson drives Choi into the fence, trying to lift him at the waist. Choi posts with his right arm once again, foiling the takedown. Choi stands back up and Nelson stays right on him. Nelson tries for a rear waistlock and as Choi spins, Nelson elevates and slams him down. Nelson is wrapped around Choi’s legs at the base of the cage. Ref Tognoni immediately exhorts them to work. Choi manages to stand back up and Nelson turns to a single-leg. Choi pulls his leg out and drives Nelson onto his back. Tognoni jumps in and calls time, saying that there was a headbutt, and replay bears him out on the fact if not the intention of the collision. Tognoni deducts a point from Choi and restarts them with a minute and a half to go. They resume action on the feet after a touch of gloves, and Nelson shoots again within seconds. Nelson has a loose single-leg, but Choi spreads his stance, lowers his center of gravity and throws a series of nasty punches and elbows to the ribs as Nelson clings. The final horn sounds with them still in that position.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 9-9 (29-27 Choi)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 9-9 (29-27 Choi)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 9-9 (29-27 Choi)
The Official Result
The judges rule Doo Ho Choi vs. Kyle Nelson a Majority Draw (29-27 Choi, 28-28, 28-28)
Big Brady is wary of Choi's long layoff and recent losses. He thinks Nelson has power and a chance to knock out Choi early. He picks Nelson by first-round knockout but says he is not betting on the moneyline, only interested in the under.
Cody picks Choi, citing his superior skill set and speed. He notes that Choi's four-year layoff may actually benefit him by allowing his body to heal from previous damage. He believes Choi is a better striker, grappler, and wrestler than Nelson. He expects Choi to win by knockout or clear decision, and likes the under 2.5 rounds at -175.
Connor picks Dooho Choi, citing more concrete reasons to distrust Kyle Nelson. He notes that Nelson is self-defeating, with a tendency to fade after an initial burst, and that Choi is a good scrambler who won't be held down. However, he acknowledges Choi's long layoff and chin concerns, making this a low-confidence pick.
Paul picks Choi, emphasizing his skill advantage and the fact that Nelson is being fed as an easy opponent. He notes that Choi has always looked good early in fights but faded, and the layoff may help. He thinks Nelson's only path is to grind, but Choi's speed and accuracy should prevail. He also mentions the time zone advantage for Asian fighters.
Zane picks Dooho Choi, but is more concerned than Connor. He notes that Nelson is dangerous early and has a reach advantage, and that Choi is an unknown after a long layoff. However, he trusts Choi's durability and believes Nelson's anxiety will cause him to fade. Zane sees a serious chance of Nelson winning by KO or TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Herbert | 0 | 36 of 64 | 56% | 84 of 116 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 5:57 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 41 of 62 | 66% | 55 of 77 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Herbert | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 17 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 19 of 27 | 70% | 21 of 30 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 | |
| 2 | Jai Herbert | 0 | 24 of 36 | 66% | 35 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 17 of 29 | 58% | 21 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:59 | |
| 3 | Jai Herbert | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 32 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:28 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 13 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Herbert | 36 of 64 | 56% | 16 of 43 | 17 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 50 | 13 of 13 | 1 of 1 |
| Kyle Nelson | 41 of 62 | 66% | 15 of 34 | 11 of 13 | 15 of 15 | 28 of 47 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Herbert | 7 of 19 | 36% | 1 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Kyle Nelson | 19 of 27 | 70% | 8 of 14 | 4 of 6 | 7 of 7 | 12 of 20 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jai Herbert | 24 of 36 | 66% | 11 of 22 | 11 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 27 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Kyle Nelson | 17 of 29 | 58% | 5 of 17 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 11 of 21 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jai Herbert | 5 of 9 | 55% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Kyle Nelson | 5 of 6 | 83% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Herbert (-265), Nelson (+225)
Round 1
Both Herbert and Nelson have lost three of their last four promotional appearances, so jobs could be at stake in this lightweight affair, which will be governed by veteran official Herb Dean. They touch gloves and we’re underway, with Nelson moving up from featherweight. Nelson lands a hard body kick to start out. Herbert extends a long jab. Nelson with a body kick followed by a calf kick. Nelson lands another low kick. Nelson grabs a leg as Herbert lands a knee to the midsection. The Canadian is in on a takedown and he shoves Herbert into the fence. Herbert is defending well so far, but Nelson is persistent in his approach. Nelson lands a knee before Herbert reverses position. Nelson creates space and lands a big elbow with his back to the fence. They continue to battle in the clinch, with Herbert currently controlling position. Another elbow for Nelson, but not as powerful as the first. Nelson with a short elbow before breaking free. Nelson throws a high kick but it’s blocked. A calf kick from the Canadian finds its mark, though. Nelson ends the period with another low kick. 10-9 Nelson.
Round 2
Herbert opens up with a kick to the body as he circles on the outside of the cage. Nelson stalks his man and lands a body kick. Herbert answers with a jab. Nelson dodges a pair of high kicks and then attacks with the calf kick again. The action picks up as both men trade low kicks and Herbert opens up a little bit more. Herbert jab the body and then lands a left hook to the body. They clinch and Nelson drives a knee into the midsection before shoving his foe into the cage. Herbert circles off the fence, but Nelson reverses and goes high with a knee. Nelson defends a trip attempt by Herbert as the clinch battle wages on. Herbert connects with an elbow in close quarters, and he defends a hip toss and continues to control position. Herbert with a nice right hand on the break. Nelson appears to be slowing down somewhat. Herbert pressures and absorbs a low kick. Herbert tags Nelson with a right before clinching with Nelson. After a spirited exchange in close quarters, Herbert sprawls nicely on a Nelson shot, and the lightweights end the round in the clinch. 10-9 Herbert.
Round 3
They trade leg kicks early, but Herbert appeared to be more affected by the blow. Nelson with a body kick and Herbert answers with a combination. Herbert defends a takedown and powers his way into top position, where he sets up in Nelson’s half guard and drops a shoulder strike. Nelson holds Herbert close to neutralize his offense from above. Herbert seems content to remain in half guard rather than looking to advance to mount. A few short right hands land for the Englishman. Nelson recovers full guard. Nelson is able to work his way to a knee as Herbert attempts to circle his way to the Canadian’s back. Nelson is now up with a minute left. He turns off the fence and shoves Herbert into the cage. Nelson works for a takedown but Herbert defends all the way until the horn. A late shot from Nelson at the horn draws a displeased reaction from “The Black Country Banger.” 10-9 Herbert (29-28 Herbert).
The Official Result
Jai Herbert def. Kyle Nelson via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Jai Herbert but expresses concern about Kyle Nelson's two-year layoff, noting it's hard to know what version of Nelson will show up. He highlights Herbert's technical striking and movement, and that he looked sharp before being knocked out by Ilia Topuria. He advises leaving Herbert out of parlays due to the uncertainty.
Big Brady picks Jai Herbert to win by first-round knockout. He loves Herbert's striking and power but notes his poor striking defense and chin. He thinks Kyle Nelson has power but a bad gas tank, and if the fight goes past the first round, Herbert takes over. He expects a knockout in the first round.
Cody picks Jai Herbert, citing his length, reach advantage, and excellent jab. He notes Nelson has been inactive for two years, moving up in weight, and has poor cardio and takedown defense. Cody thinks Herbert will dictate the outside and jab Nelson's face off. He predicts a first or second round knockout for Herbert.
Daniel Levi picks Jai Herbert, noting that this is a massive step down in competition for Herbert, who has been fighting tough opponents. He believes Herbert has better technique, length, and shot selection. Levi points out that Kyle Nelson is essentially knockout or bust, having only one KO since 2018, and questions Nelson's toughness relative to other UFC fighters.
Herbert is technically better, has a six-inch reach advantage, and should touch Nelson up. However, Herbert has a glass chin and Nelson has power. I think Herbert finishes him in the second or third round. The fight doesn't go to decision is a good parlay piece.
Paul picks Kyle Nelson at +235, calling it a dogger pass. He notes Nelson throws absolute hammers and Herbert's chin is questionable. Paul thinks the fight is high variance and Herbert has been rocked many times. He likes Nelson inside the distance at +350 or by KO at +600.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Jai Herbert to win by first-round TKO. He believes Herbert is a much better fighter than Kyle Nelson, who has been out since September 2020. Herbert has been active and will start fast. Nelson has power in the first round but fades, and Herbert can weather the storm and finish him.
Expert Picks (10)
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging his cardio and chin issues. He believes McKinney is the better striker, wrestler, and more powerful, and hopes he puts on a show at home. He admits he went against his own rule of not betting on McKinney and placed a half-unit bet at -141.
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round knockout. He expects a car crash of a fight, noting both fighters lack durability and have been finished often. He believes McKinney's early pressure and power will be too much for Kyle Nelson, who has been finished in four losses. He thinks McKinney will knock him out in the first few minutes.
Cody picks Nelson, believing McKinney's early explosiveness will fade and Nelson's durability and cardio will take over. He also mentions inside information from Nelson's training partner.
Connor picks Nelson, noting that McKinney is only dangerous in the first round and concedes when he can't get an immediate finish. He points out that McKinney has only won one fight outside the first three minutes in his entire career. Nelson is susceptible early but if he survives, McKinney gives up. Connor says you can't pick a competent fighter to lose to McKinney.
Daniel acknowledges McKinney's first-round finishing ability but is wary of his tendency to fade if he doesn't get the early KO. He picks McKinney but suggests live betting Nelson if the fight goes past two minutes.
The host sees this as a coin flip: McKinney is explosive and dangerous early but has terrible cardio and has never been to a decision; Nelson is slow and hittable but has power and can survive the first round. The implied probabilities (65-40) offer no margin on either side, so the host passes entirely.
The host expects McKinney's explosive power and early aggression to overwhelm Nelson, leading to a first-round knockout. He notes McKinney's tendency to finish early and that all his UFC fights have ended under 1.5 rounds. He is less confident in betting McKinney straight due to his style's volatility but likes the under 1.5 rounds prop.
Paul agrees, noting McKinney's history of gassing and Nelson's ability to survive early storms. He expects Nelson to win after the first round.
The MMA Guru picks Kyle Nelson using reverse psychology, as he often picks McKinney to win by first-round TKO but McKinney fumbles. He believes McKinney will wobble Nelson early but then fade, allowing Nelson to take over in the second and third rounds with elbows and pressure. He notes McKinney's inconsistency.
Zane agrees, stating that McKinney's pattern is clear: he comes in keyed up and if he doesn't finish early, he gives up. He compares McKinney to the ID of fighters like McGregor and Pyfer. Nelson is a competent fighter who can survive the early storm. Zane notes that Nelson could lose if he gets caught early, but otherwise McKinney has no answer.
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