Career Averages - Casey O'Neill
Career Averages - Gabriella Fernandes
Casey O'Neill - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 1 | 25 of 66 | 37% | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 8 of 33 | 24% | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 1 | 25 of 66 | 37% | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 8 of 33 | 24% | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 25 of 66 | 37% | 16 of 54 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 8 of 33 | 24% | 3 of 27 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 25 of 66 | 37% | 16 of 54 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 8 of 33 | 24% | 3 of 27 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans towards Gabriella Fernandes, citing her power and physicality, and Casey O'Neill's long layoff which might make her timid. He acknowledges Casey's volume and wrestling but thinks Gabriella's power could be the difference. He says it's not a hill he's willing to die on.
Big Brady leans toward Gabriella Fernandes to win by decision. He likes Casey O'Neill's volume and submission game but is concerned about her long layoff due to injuries and her durability. He thinks Fernandes is the better striker and more physical, and if O'Neill can't get the fight to the ground, Fernandes will win. He notes Fernandes' poor performance against Stoliarenko but believes she is better than that.
Cody believes O'Neill's grappling and volume will overwhelm Fernandes, who has poor takedown defense. He sees O'Neill as the better prospect and expects her to win.
Connor also picks O'Neill, trusting her to play her game. He notes that Fernandes is inconsistent and can be wrapped up by aggressive fighters. He acknowledges that O'Neill's striking is crude but her pace is reliable.
Daniel leans towards Fernandes due to her improved takedown defense, physicality, and activity, while O'Neill has had multiple layoffs. He sees it as close but favors Fernandes.
The host expects O'Neill to learn from past losses and crash the pocket more effectively, mixing in grappling at opportune moments. He thinks O'Neill's top control will be key, leading to either a submission or a decision win. He notes O'Neill's layoff and training camp changes but believes she can dictate the pace and grind out a win.
Paul picks Fernandes, citing her knockout power and O'Neill's inactivity. He has low conviction but thinks Fernandes can land a big shot.
The MMA Guru picks Gabriella Fernandes as a slight underdog, citing her momentum and physicality. He believes Fernandes has more power and damage advantage, while Casey O'Neill lacks power and relies on volume. He notes O'Neill's recent inactivity and cosmetic surgeries as potential distractions. He predicts Fernandes wins by decision.
Zane picks O'Neill because of her high output and ability to swarm, creating ugly clinches and dominant positions. He notes that Fernandes has been beaten by aggressive fighters who wrap her up, and O'Neill fits that mold. He also mentions that O'Neill's striking is ineffective but her pace wins rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 83 of 193 | 43% | 113 of 227 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 2:21 |
| Luana Santos | 0 | 41 of 97 | 42% | 46 of 102 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 24 of 54 | 44% | 29 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Luana Santos | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:16 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 25 of 62 | 40% | 28 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Luana Santos | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 13 of 33 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 | |
| 3 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 34 of 77 | 44% | 56 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 2:11 |
| Luana Santos | 0 | 13 of 31 | 41% | 13 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 83 of 193 | 43% | 60 of 163 | 12 of 19 | 11 of 11 | 69 of 177 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 9 |
| Luana Santos | 41 of 97 | 42% | 26 of 75 | 10 of 17 | 5 of 5 | 41 of 94 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 24 of 54 | 44% | 15 of 44 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 23 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Santos | 16 of 34 | 47% | 10 of 25 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 25 of 62 | 40% | 19 of 51 | 4 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 56 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Santos | 12 of 32 | 37% | 7 of 23 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 30 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Casey O'Neill | 34 of 77 | 44% | 26 of 68 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 9 |
| Luana Santos | 13 of 31 | 41% | 9 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Santos (-162), O’Neill (+136)
Round 1
Once an uber-hot prospect at the women’s flyweight division, the excitement and momentum have cooled for O'Neill (9-2, 4-2 UFC), who comes into this fight as the crowd favorite despite her birth country being Scotland. While the Xtreme Couture product has lost her last two, Brazil’s Santos (8-1, 3-0 UFC) is flying high, winner of five straight including three in the Octagon. Taking charge of this bout will be referee Rich Mitchell, and he clocks the ladies in as they opt to touch gloves. O'Neill lashes out with an early low kick and punches her way into range, and she slips back to dodge counterpunches. O'Neill kicks the front leg again, only to be met with a left hook. Santos chips back at the front leg twice, with O'Neill trying to line up a right hand back her direction. Santos holds her arm out and swings with the other behind it, and she kicks and gets thrown to the floor. The two scramble right back to their feet, and Santos holds on with a standing guillotine choke to bully O'Neill to the fence. Santos presses hard against the cage wall, slipping around to take the back and attack a single from behind. O'Neill keeps her balance and knees her foe in the torso a few times, only to be lifted up with responsive knees. O'Neill pushes off of Santos’ face to separate, and she walks Santos down and connects with a trio of punches and a chopping calf kick. Santos clips her with a right hand over the top, and she lands flush with a few punches while O'Neill wants to slug it out with her. Santos kicks the body and scurries away to avoid any counters, and O'Neill marches her down and kicks her front leg. O'Neill wings a right hand, but a straight left is more accurate. O'Neill connects with three punches, forcing Santos to bounce off the wall. They both let their hands go, with O'Neill landing first and harder. O'Neill clubs her opponent with overhand rights as Santos tries to kick, and she gets knocked off-balance but throws back hard to make Santos bounce off the cage wall again. They land at the same time, and O'Neill tries to time one such meeting with a knee. Santos misses a jumping switch kick, and she has a spinning back fist blocked. O'Neill walks Santos down and punches her in the face a few more times until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Round 2
Gloves are briefly touched to begin Round 2, and O'Neill is the aggressor right from the start. She lands a right hand and a body kick, and Santos catches the latter and slings O'Neill to the mat. Santos grabs the glove to get up, and she is warned for the foul. O'Neill manages her way back to her feet, and Santos gloms onto her from behind looking to trip or suffocate her opponent. O'Neill twists and turns, but Santos will not give her an inch of space. O'Neill tries to turn the tables and elevate the Brazilian, and her power move results in Santos stumbling, allowing her to get away. O'Neill returns to her stalking pace, landing a right hand and blocking the responses. O'Neill plants three fists on the chin and a leg kick to follow, keeping Santos guessing by mixing up her offense just enough. Santos kicks her in the ribs and strafes to the side, and O'Neill meets her with an overhand right. Santos goes wide with a hook, allowing O'Neill to retaliate with a trio of speedy blows. O'Neill overswings her way into an accidental takedown setup, and she abandons it to knee Santos in the head repeatedly. Santos shells up and gets caught with punches that wrap around her raised guard before she scoots away. O'Neill times a right hand when Santos kicks her, and Santos is striking back but is beaten to the punch time and time again. Santos jabs and parries, trying for a looping right when O'Neill kicks at her but is out of range. Santos lands two punches, hops back and then puts two more punches on the Brazilian’s chin. A clinch results in O'Neill sneaking in a knee, and Santos breaks off before anything else can catch her. Santos lands once, and O'Neill hits her back three times right before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Round 3
Fists are touched, and the fight resumes almost exactly where it ended in the last round. O'Neill clubs Santos with a short combination, and Santos tries and fails to get her back. Santos jabs out and is met with counters, and she leaps forward to get off a right hand. The Brazilian jabs the body, and O'Neill walks her down and busts her in the chops with a series of punches. O'Neill loads up on power punches that knock Santos around, but Santos is tough as can be and wears them well. Santos misses with a right hand, allowing O'Neill to counter her with a power right. O'Neill strings together a few punches and a knee, and Santos is the slower of the two and almost never strikes first. O'Neill jabs high, low and then wings a right hand that gets around the guard. O'Neill allows Santos to come to her so she can meet her with harder blows, with effective right hands that continue to find their home. Punches are traded, and Santos suddenly does not like what is happening and she tries to take the fight down with an ill-advised head lock. O'Neill spins her around and counters a twister setup, resulting in her taking the Brazilian’s back with a quick body triangle set up. Santos hand-fights to prevent any choke from coming anywhere close, but she gets softened up with strikes from both sides. Santos is warned for grabbing inside of the glove, and Mitchell pauses the fight to tell her what is not allowed even though fighters are given instructions before every fight. Santos looks upset that she was called on it, and O'Neill hangs on after the restart to continue working. O'Neill wraps a rear-naked choke grip on the jaw and ends up with a face crank, and she thwacks Santos on the kidney with heel kicks until time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill (30-27 O'Neill)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill (30-27 O'Neill)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill (30-27 O'Neill)
The Official Result
Casey O’Neill def. Luana Santos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
Angelo picks Luana Santos because of her slick grappling and Judo, which he believes will be too much for Casey O'Neill, who was recently submitted quickly by Ariane Lipski. He notes that defending Judo throws is different from defending cage takedowns, and Santos should be able to get the fight to the ground and control it. He has a half-unit bet on Santos at -140, citing the short notice and travel as reasons for the reduced stake.
Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by decision. He notes O'Neill has good cardio, high output (almost 9 significant strikes per minute), solid wrestling, and a good ground game. He expects Santos to have success early with takedowns, but as the fight goes on, O'Neill's cardio and volume will take over. He also mentions Santos is taking the fight on short notice and is traveling to Australia, while O'Neill is Australian. He acknowledges O'Neill has looked bad in recent fights but believes this is a step down in competition.
Cody highlights Santos' youth, judo black belt, and recent winning streak, while O'Neill has lost two straight and shown poor striking defense and grappling. He notes Santos can take O'Neill down and control her, and that O'Neill lacks power to earn respect. Cody expects Santos to win the first two rounds and coast.
Daniel Vreeland picks Luana Santos but is not confident, citing O'Neill's volume and tenacity as concerns. He notes that Santos is young and improving, and that O'Neill may be overcorrected in the market after two losses. Vreeland acknowledges the fight is close and that he has no strong read, but leans toward Santos due to recency bias and physical attributes.
The host leans to Santos, citing her technical advantages and submission threat. He notes O'Neill's wrestling could be a factor, but expects Santos to control positions and potentially submit her. He mentions Santos' submission prop at +600 as a possible nibble, but is cautious due to Santos taking the fight on short notice and traveling.
Paul agrees, noting that O'Neill's hype train has derailed after losses to tougher competition. He points out that Santos has legitimate potential, as shown by her takedown of Stephanie Edgar and destruction of Agapova. Paul believes Santos can do whatever she wants in the fight and that O'Neill's volume lacks power.
The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill over Luana Santos. He initially jokes about picking Santos but settles on O'Neill. He acknowledges O'Neill's losses to Ariane Lipski and Jennifer Maia but notes she has more experience and has been training since those losses. He criticizes Santos' wins over Mariya Agapova (calling her a heroin addict) and Juliana Miller (calling her a can). He is surprised O'Neill is an underdog and takes that value. He predicts a unanimous decision win for O'Neill.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 31 of 74 | 41% | 32 of 75 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 64 of 127 | 50% | 86 of 152 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 28 of 68 | 41% | 29 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 39 of 93 | 41% | 44 of 98 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 25 of 34 | 73% | 42 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:53 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 31 of 74 | 41% | 17 of 57 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 14 | 29 of 72 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 64 of 127 | 50% | 45 of 106 | 16 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 37 of 95 | 9 of 11 | 18 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 28 of 68 | 41% | 15 of 52 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 13 | 26 of 66 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 39 of 93 | 41% | 21 of 73 | 15 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 81 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 25 of 34 | 73% | 24 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 20 |
Angelo leans Ariane da Silva, noting her recent evolution in grappling and takedown defense. He contrasts her upward trajectory with Casey O'Neill's recent struggles. He fears O'Neill's size but picks Ariane, comparing the fight to Veronica Hardy vs. Jamie Lorth.
Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by second-round TKO, citing a phenomenal stylistic matchup. He notes O'Neill's vicious ground and pound and believes she will take down Lipski and dominate, as Lipski has been finished 4 times and struggles with ground pressure. Brady acknowledges Lipski's recent wins stuffing takedowns but thinks O'Neill's wrestling and volume will be too much. He also mentions O'Neill could knock Lipski out on the feet.
Cody picks Lipski as an underdog, citing her recent improvements at American Top Team and her wins as an underdog over JJ Aldrich and Melissa Gatto. He notes that O'Neill's wrestling has not been as effective against higher-level competition and that Lipski can keep the fight standing and make it competitive. Cody believes Lipski's volume and clinch elbows could be key, and at +165 she offers value.
Lucrative James picks Ariane Lipski outright. He notes that Lipski's takedown defense has improved dramatically, and if she stuffs takedowns, she will piece Casey O'Neill up on the feet. He believes Casey's path is only via takedown and ground control, but Lipski's improved defense and the value on her as an underdog make her the side. He has already bet Lipski.
The host, who previously faded Lipski, is now on board after her recent improvements. He believes Lipski has a technical striking advantage, better takedown defense, and growing confidence. He expects Lipski to keep the fight standing, land the more damaging blows, and win a decision. He notes that O'Neill is still raw and untested, and that Lipski can provide a similar type of loss as Jennifer Maia did to O'Neill.
Paul picks O'Neill but is not confident. He notes that O'Neill has good volume and takedowns against lower-level competition, but her wrestling has been less effective against better opponents. He believes O'Neill should use her wrestling to win but is hesitant because Lipski has improved. Paul expects a competitive fight and thinks O'Neill by decision is likely, but he is not fully confident.
The Guru picks Casey O'Neill over Ariane Lipski, citing O'Neill's higher volume striking and physicality. He notes O'Neill threw nearly 400 significant strikes against Roxanne Modafferi, while Lipski's output is lower. He expects a decision win for O'Neill.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 145 of 349 | 41% | 151 of 355 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 137 of 264 | 51% | 137 of 264 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jennifer Maia | 0 | 47 of 113 | 41% | 48 of 114 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 43 of 96 | 44% | 43 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jennifer Maia | 0 | 51 of 119 | 42% | 55 of 123 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 47 of 84 | 55% | 47 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jennifer Maia | 0 | 47 of 117 | 40% | 48 of 118 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 47 of 84 | 55% | 47 of 84 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Maia | 145 of 349 | 41% | 123 of 321 | 11 of 16 | 11 of 12 | 124 of 321 | 21 of 28 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 137 of 264 | 51% | 108 of 226 | 24 of 32 | 5 of 6 | 129 of 254 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jennifer Maia | 47 of 113 | 41% | 37 of 101 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 43 of 108 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 43 of 96 | 44% | 35 of 85 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 41 of 93 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jennifer Maia | 51 of 119 | 42% | 44 of 109 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 46 of 112 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 47 of 84 | 55% | 36 of 70 | 8 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 45 of 82 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jennifer Maia | 47 of 117 | 40% | 42 of 111 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 35 of 101 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 47 of 84 | 55% | 37 of 71 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 43 of 79 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Casey O'Neill but is not betting. He thinks O'Neill will come forward with volume and wrestling, but her takedown defense was exposed against Roxanne. He notes Jennifer Maia is well-rounded and tough, and could cause problems if she gets takedowns. He expects a close fight.
Big Brady picks O'Neill, noting Maia refuses to wrestle despite being a black belt. He believes if Maia went for takedowns she would win, but she won't. On the feet, O'Neill has higher output and will win a decision. He is not a big fan of O'Neill but likes her stylistically here.
Cody picks Maia as an underdog, citing the 'dog or pass' strategy in women's MMA. He notes O'Neill is young, green, and pushed too fast, while Maia is a veteran who fought for a title. He thinks Maia's experience and clinch strength could be factors, but acknowledges O'Neill's wrestling and top control are threats. He expects to lose but trusts the long-term underdog strategy.
Connor picks Maia because she is a tough, durable fighter who is difficult to take down off the cage. He notes that Maia has improved her boxing and aggression, landing left hooks and combinations. O'Neill relies on size and aggression but has poor defense and footwork. Connor thinks Maia's defensive wrestling and low center of gravity will neutralize O'Neill's takedowns. He also mentions that O'Neill's wild style leaves openings that Maia can exploit with straight punches.
Jacob is a big fan of Casey O'Neill and picks her to win a close decision. He thinks her experience against Roxanne prepared her for a similar pressure fighter in Maia. He notes O'Neill has a bad [__] in the octagon and will find a way to win in a close fight. He expects a 29-28 decision.
O'Neill is coming back from a devastating knee injury but is young and trains at a high level. Maia is a BJJ black belt who prefers striking, and her experience could be a factor. O'Neill's strength and aggression should allow her to grind out a decision, but there are many question marks. No betting interest at the current line.
Paul picks O'Neill but is hesitant. He notes O'Neill's grappling advantage and thinks she can win on volume and takedowns. However, he points out O'Neill didn't look great against Roxanne Modafferi and struggled early against Antonina Shevchenko. He thinks minus 180 is too high and prefers O'Neill over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks. He says it will be dicey and your butt will be puckered until the final bell.
The MMA Guru picks Jennifer Maia over Casey O'Neill, going against the majority. He notes O'Neill looked suspect against Roxanne Modafferi and gets caught on the feet, while Maia has crisp boxing and a good submission game. Maia has gone the distance with Valentina Shevchenko and given problems to top fighters. He believes Maia is underrated and O'Neill is overhyped as a prospect.
Zane also picks Maia, noting that O'Neill is a prospect who has beaten lower-level competition. Maia is a gatekeeper who has only lost to title challengers. Zane highlights Maia's improved boxing and her ability to stuff takedowns, especially off the cage. He thinks O'Neill's takedowns are low-drive and will be neutralized. Zane also points out that O'Neill's defensive flaws will be exposed by Maia's steady output. He believes the odds should be reversed and that Maia is the better fighter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 120 of 358 | 33% | 148 of 390 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 229 of 393 | 58% | 230 of 395 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 44 of 135 | 32% | 44 of 135 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 72 of 130 | 55% | 72 of 130 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 35 of 118 | 29% | 40 of 123 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 86 of 142 | 60% | 86 of 142 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 41 of 105 | 39% | 64 of 132 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 71 of 121 | 58% | 72 of 123 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 120 of 358 | 33% | 98 of 330 | 20 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 112 of 347 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 229 of 393 | 58% | 187 of 348 | 22 of 25 | 20 of 20 | 225 of 387 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 44 of 135 | 32% | 40 of 129 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 44 of 135 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 72 of 130 | 55% | 55 of 111 | 7 of 9 | 10 of 10 | 72 of 130 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 35 of 118 | 29% | 28 of 109 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 34 of 117 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 86 of 142 | 60% | 73 of 129 | 7 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 84 of 140 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Casey O'Neill | 41 of 105 | 39% | 30 of 92 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 95 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 71 of 121 | 58% | 59 of 108 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 69 of 117 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in O'Neill, calling her too good everywhere. He expects a dominant one-sided decision win, noting Modafferi's toughness but lack of athleticism. He mentions a parlay with Ronnie Lawrence and a potential prop bet on O'Neill by decision.
Big Brady acknowledges O'Neill's poor striking defense but believes she can take down Modafferi at will due to Modafferi's 25% takedown defense. He thinks O'Neill will control the fight on the ground and win a decision. He notes Modafferi is retiring and 39 years old, and while she is tough and has good BJJ defense, he doesn't see her winning. Brady picks O'Neill by decision.
Cody agrees, highlighting O'Neill's youth, improving skills, and physical strength. He notes Modafferi's takedown defense is poor and that O'Neill can dictate where the fight goes. He sees this as a passing of the torch.
Daniel Levi picks Casey O'Neill by decision. He acknowledges Modafferi's toughness and black belt in jiu-jitsu, but notes that O'Neill's pace and grappling pressure will be too much. Levi does not expect a finish because Modafferi has not been finished since 2013. He also mentions that Modafferi's retirement mindset may affect her performance.
O'Neill is the younger, more explosive fighter, but Modafferi is durable and has good grappling. O'Neill has shown vulnerabilities in being taken down and controlled, which is Modafferi's strength. Modafferi hasn't been finished in over a decade. O'Neill should eventually get the TKO in the later rounds, but the odds are too wide. This is a no-play for betting.
Paul thinks O'Neill's pressure and grappling will be too much for Modafferi. He notes Modafferi has been taken down frequently in recent fights and that O'Neill is strong and relentless. He expects a decision win for O'Neill, possibly a finish.
The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill by second-round ground-and-pound TKO. He criticizes Modafferi's striking and chin, and believes O'Neill's hunger and grappling will overwhelm the retiring veteran.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 40 of 63 | 63% | 58 of 85 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 52 of 110 | 47% | 128 of 209 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 5:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 29 of 41 | 70% | 38 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 9 of 33 | 27% | 26 of 52 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 20 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 43 of 77 | 55% | 102 of 157 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 40 of 63 | 63% | 32 of 55 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 45 | 8 of 8 | 8 of 10 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 52 of 110 | 47% | 46 of 101 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 55 | 2 of 3 | 37 of 52 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 29 of 41 | 70% | 23 of 35 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 25 | 6 of 6 | 8 of 10 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 9 of 33 | 27% | 5 of 27 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 11 of 22 | 50% | 9 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 43 of 77 | 55% | 41 of 74 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 35 of 48 |
Angelo picks Casey O'Neill confidently, citing her clear path to victory via wrestling and pressure. He notes that O'Neill is a Muay Thai striker with solid wrestling and explosive athleticism, while Shevchenko has poor takedown defense (50% in UFC). Angelo expects O'Neill to win striking exchanges or fall back on takedowns, making her almost a guaranteed win. He considers a moneyline bet at -210 and may include her in DraftKings lineup at $9,000.
Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by decision, but is hesitant due to O'Neill's poor striking defense (38%) and being very hittable. He notes O'Neill will be at a massive disadvantage on the feet against Shevchenko, who has a significant striking advantage. However, Shevchenko has terrible takedown defense (50%) and was taken down multiple times by Andrea Lee, Caitlin Chookagian, and Roxanne Modafferi. Brady expects O'Neill to shoot takedowns early and control the fight on the ground to squeak out a decision. He has serious concerns about O'Neill's striking defense going forward.
Cody picks O'Neill, noting her youth and grappling advantage. He expects her to take Shevchenko down and control her on the ground. He mentions that Shevchenko has poor takedown defense and was submitted by Andrea Lee. He predicts O'Neill wins inside the distance, likely by submission.
Daniel Levi picks Casey O'Neill but is nervous about the striking and clinch advantage of Antonina Shevchenko. He notes O'Neill's path to victory is via takedowns and ground control, where she has a brown belt and has shown improvement. However, Shevchenko has lost only to top-15 opponents and is tough to finish. Levi expects O'Neill to get taken down eventually and grind out a decision or submission, but he will be anxious while the fight is standing.
I think Shevchenko is being undervalued. She has fought much better competition and has a clear striking advantage. O'Neill's grappling is overrated; she got reversed by Shannon Dobson and has been taken down by others. If Shevchenko can stuff takedowns, she will light O'Neill up. I bet Shevchenko moneyline and also Shevchenko by KO at +800.
Paul also picks O'Neill, noting that she is a rising star with good grappling. He acknowledges that she lost the first round against Lara Procopio but rallied. He believes her wrestling and jiu-jitsu will be too much for Shevchenko, who is 36 and past her prime.
The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill, citing Antonina Shevchenko's grappling problems. He notes that Shevchenko was submitted by Andrea Lee and controlled by Roxanne Modafferi. O'Neill has a reach advantage and good grappling, and he predicts she will take Shevchenko down and submit her with a rear-naked choke in the second or third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 71 of 129 | 55% | 176 of 246 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 5:42 |
| Lara Procópio | 0 | 41 of 65 | 63% | 76 of 103 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 26 of 67 | 38% | 34 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Lara Procópio | 0 | 32 of 50 | 64% | 63 of 82 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 38 of 50 | 76% | 68 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 2:33 |
| Lara Procópio | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 8 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 | |
| 3 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 74 of 85 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:33 |
| Lara Procópio | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 71 of 129 | 55% | 41 of 97 | 23 of 25 | 7 of 7 | 43 of 94 | 9 of 12 | 19 of 23 |
| Lara Procópio | 41 of 65 | 63% | 17 of 40 | 15 of 16 | 9 of 9 | 26 of 49 | 14 of 15 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 26 of 67 | 38% | 12 of 52 | 11 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 58 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 2 |
| Lara Procópio | 32 of 50 | 64% | 13 of 30 | 12 of 13 | 7 of 7 | 20 of 37 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 38 of 50 | 76% | 25 of 36 | 10 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 19 |
| Lara Procópio | 5 of 10 | 50% | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Casey O'Neill | 7 of 12 | 58% | 4 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Lara Procópio | 4 of 5 | 80% | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Lara Procópio, emphasizing her technical jiu-jitsu and high fight IQ. He compares Casey O'Neill to Paige VanZant, athletic but not technical. He believes Procópio can submit O'Neill or control her on the ground. He has Procópio in his DraftKings lineup and placed a bet on her to win by stoppage with decision no action.
Big Brady favors Procópio due to her well-rounded skills, better striking volume, superior cardio, and ground game. He notes O'Neill's striking defense is poor and her win over Shannon Dobson is overrated because Dobson had zero takedown defense. He expects Procópio to mix takedowns and win a decision.
Cody picks Procópio, citing her striking volume, grappling, and durability. He notes O'Neill's limited striking and reliance on takedowns, which Procópio can defend. Cody believes Procópio's well-rounded game will be too much for the undefeated but inexperienced O'Neill.
Daniel Levi picks Lara Procópio, expecting her to dominate the majority of the fight. He notes that she is a Nova União black belt with good performances against Carol Rosa and Molly McCann. However, he warns that she must be careful of O'Neill's submission attempts, as Molly McCann had a deep armbar on her. He predicts a decision win for Procópio.
Jacob picks Casey O'Neill, citing her pressure and toughness. He worries about O'Neill's grappling defense if she ends up on her back, but thinks she can win a decision. He does not have her in his lineup and would not bet on the fight. He sees it as a wrestling match that could go either way.
The host leans with Casey O'Neill as a slight underdog, citing her aggression, strength, and improving skills at Extreme Couture. He believes O'Neill's forward pressure and top control will be key, as Procópio may struggle to get takedowns. He notes O'Neill's ground-and-pound and active top game, while Procópio is a black belt but less threatening off her back. He predicts a decision win but with low conviction, acknowledging respected analysts are on Procópio.
Paul picks Procópio, noting her solid grappling and game plan against Molly McCann. He is concerned about O'Neill's grappling but believes Procópio's experience and skills will prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill to win by unanimous decision (29-28). He expects Lara Procópio to have success on the feet in the first round, but O'Neill's grappling and size advantage will take over in the later rounds. He notes O'Neill's youth (23) and undefeated record (6-0) as factors. He predicts a takedown at the end of round one, then O'Neill dominating on top in rounds two and three, possibly close to a 10-8 in the third.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 27 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:13 |
| Shana Dobson | 0 | 49 of 68 | 72% | 132 of 183 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 7:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 23 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:13 |
| Shana Dobson | 0 | 32 of 38 | 84% | 57 of 67 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 3:53 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shana Dobson | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 75 of 116 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 16 of 28 | 57% | 9 of 21 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 4 |
| Shana Dobson | 49 of 68 | 72% | 44 of 62 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 43 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 14 of 26 | 53% | 9 of 21 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 4 |
| Shana Dobson | 32 of 38 | 84% | 28 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 16 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shana Dobson | 17 of 30 | 56% | 16 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 27 |
Daniel Levi is skeptical of Casey O'Neill's competition level, calling her opponents 'soccer moms' and noting she was knocked out twice in amateur fights. He believes Shana Dobson, despite her poor record, has faced much better competition and has more experience. Levi thinks Dobson's confidence from her last win could carry her, and he sees O'Neill as overhyped. He picks Dobson for the upset, but admits it wouldn't surprise him if O'Neill wins.
Gabriella Fernandes - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 1 | 25 of 66 | 37% | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 8 of 33 | 24% | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 1 | 25 of 66 | 37% | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 8 of 33 | 24% | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 25 of 66 | 37% | 16 of 54 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 8 of 33 | 24% | 3 of 27 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 25 of 66 | 37% | 16 of 54 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 8 of 33 | 24% | 3 of 27 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans towards Gabriella Fernandes, citing her power and physicality, and Casey O'Neill's long layoff which might make her timid. He acknowledges Casey's volume and wrestling but thinks Gabriella's power could be the difference. He says it's not a hill he's willing to die on.
Big Brady leans toward Gabriella Fernandes to win by decision. He likes Casey O'Neill's volume and submission game but is concerned about her long layoff due to injuries and her durability. He thinks Fernandes is the better striker and more physical, and if O'Neill can't get the fight to the ground, Fernandes will win. He notes Fernandes' poor performance against Stoliarenko but believes she is better than that.
Cody believes O'Neill's grappling and volume will overwhelm Fernandes, who has poor takedown defense. He sees O'Neill as the better prospect and expects her to win.
Connor also picks O'Neill, trusting her to play her game. He notes that Fernandes is inconsistent and can be wrapped up by aggressive fighters. He acknowledges that O'Neill's striking is crude but her pace is reliable.
Daniel leans towards Fernandes due to her improved takedown defense, physicality, and activity, while O'Neill has had multiple layoffs. He sees it as close but favors Fernandes.
The host expects O'Neill to learn from past losses and crash the pocket more effectively, mixing in grappling at opportune moments. He thinks O'Neill's top control will be key, leading to either a submission or a decision win. He notes O'Neill's layoff and training camp changes but believes she can dictate the pace and grind out a win.
Paul picks Fernandes, citing her knockout power and O'Neill's inactivity. He has low conviction but thinks Fernandes can land a big shot.
The MMA Guru picks Gabriella Fernandes as a slight underdog, citing her momentum and physicality. He believes Fernandes has more power and damage advantage, while Casey O'Neill lacks power and relies on volume. He notes O'Neill's recent inactivity and cosmetic surgeries as potential distractions. He predicts Fernandes wins by decision.
Zane picks O'Neill because of her high output and ability to swarm, creating ugly clinches and dominant positions. He notes that Fernandes has been beaten by aggressive fighters who wrap her up, and O'Neill fits that mold. He also mentions that O'Neill's striking is ineffective but her pace wins rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 59 of 114 | 51% | 59 of 114 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 61 of 161 | 37% | 64 of 167 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 19 of 45 | 42% | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 19 of 49 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 | |
| 2 | Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 23 of 38 | 60% | 23 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 18 of 43 | 41% | 19 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 | |
| 3 | Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 17 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 24 of 71 | 33% | 26 of 74 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriella Fernandes | 59 of 114 | 51% | 38 of 91 | 15 of 17 | 6 of 6 | 58 of 112 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 61 of 161 | 37% | 28 of 117 | 13 of 20 | 20 of 24 | 56 of 154 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriella Fernandes | 19 of 45 | 42% | 10 of 35 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 19 of 47 | 40% | 9 of 32 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 12 | 19 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gabriella Fernandes | 23 of 38 | 60% | 14 of 28 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 18 of 43 | 41% | 9 of 32 | 1 of 3 | 8 of 8 | 18 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gabriella Fernandes | 17 of 31 | 54% | 14 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 24 of 71 | 33% | 10 of 53 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 66 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Gabriella Fernandes, citing her powerful striking and decent jiu-jitsu. He notes that Julija Stoliarenko is a dangerous grappler but has sloppy striking and is either armbar or nothing. Angelo believes if Gabriella can defend takedowns, she will beat Julija up and potentially finish her. He started with low confidence but moved to medium confidence.
Big Brady is confident in Gabriella Fernandes, describing Julija Stoliarenko as the most one-dimensional fighter in the UFC with only an armbar threat. He notes Stoliarenko has no striking, no wrestling, and has been finished multiple times. Brady believes Fernandes will dominate on the feet and can also do damage on top if the fight goes to the ground. He predicts Fernandes will knock out Stoliarenko in the second round.
The host highlights Fernandes' striking advantage and physicality, expecting her to keep the fight standing and pick apart Stoliarenko from distance. He predicts a headkick knockout, showing confidence in a finish.
The MMA Guru picks Gabriella Fernandes, citing her recent win over Wang Cong and her solid jiu-jitsu. He believes Stoliarenko is a finish-or-be-finished fighter but Fernandes has the grappling to avoid submissions. He predicts a first or second round finish for Fernandes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 46 of 111 | 41% | 48 of 113 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Wang Cong | 1 | 18 of 59 | 30% | 19 of 61 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 23 of 56 | 41% | 25 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Wang Cong | 0 | 6 of 26 | 23% | 7 of 28 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 2 | Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 23 of 55 | 41% | 23 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Wang Cong | 1 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriella Fernandes | 46 of 111 | 41% | 15 of 66 | 21 of 32 | 10 of 13 | 46 of 111 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Wang Cong | 18 of 59 | 30% | 13 of 50 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 6 | 18 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriella Fernandes | 23 of 56 | 41% | 7 of 30 | 12 of 19 | 4 of 7 | 23 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Wang Cong | 6 of 26 | 23% | 5 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gabriella Fernandes | 23 of 55 | 41% | 8 of 36 | 9 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 23 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Wang Cong | 12 of 33 | 36% | 8 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo is very confident in Wang Cong, citing her kickboxing background and power. He believes Fernandes will struggle with Wang's power and resort to desperate takedowns. He calls it one of his most confident picks on the card.
Big Brady picks Wang Cong to win by decision. He thinks Wang is the better striker and also has a sneaky path to victory via takedowns, as Fernandes can be taken down and controlled on the mat. Despite the massive -800 line, Brady expects Wang to get it done, likely on the feet or with grappling.
Cody agrees, calling Wang a legitimate prospect with world-class kickboxing. He notes that Fernandes has been taken down and outstruck in recent fights, and Wang's physicality in the clinch will be too much. He expects Wang to win big, possibly by knockout or even submission, as she continues to develop her grappling.
Connor also picks Wang, comparing her to a more athletic Yan Xiaonan with less experience. He notes that Fernandes is not a great grappler but a physical fighter, and Wang's athleticism and striking should prevail. Connor acknowledges that Wang's ground game could implode under pressure but thinks it's unlikely against Fernandes. He agrees the odds are too wide.
Daniel Vreeland picks Wang Cong despite the steep -800 line. He highlights her clean kickboxing, having beaten Valentina Shevchenko in a kickboxing match, and her well-rounded game including takedowns. He acknowledges Gabriella Fernandes' power and improving get-up game but sees a clear technique gap. He expects Wang Cong to pick her apart, though not necessarily with a highlight-reel KO.
James leans towards Wang Cong as a real prospect, but admits he hasn't done full tape study. He notes Wang's striking and thinks Fernandes is not a great fighter, but the -800 price is too high to bet. He may look for a decision or KO prop after further research.
Paul picks Wang Cong confidently, noting her elite striking and improving grappling. He points out that Fernandes is not a strong grappler and has been outmuscled in the clinch. He expects Wang to win by knockout, possibly early, and sees this as a showcase fight to build her up.
The MMA Guru picks Wang Cong confidently, citing her aura, power, KO ability, and kickboxing background. He mentions she knocked out Victoria Leonardo and beat Valentina Shevchenko in kickboxing. He acknowledges Gabriella Fernandes is strong and athletic but lost to Jazzy Decious and Theresa Bleda. He predicts a KO win for Wang Cong.
Zane picks Wang Cong, citing her superior striking speed, power, and form. He notes that Fernandes is a cumbersome striker who will likely get countered repeatedly. Zane also mentions that Wang showed composure when grappled in previous fights, which should help against Fernandes' physical but not elite grappling. However, he warns that Wang is untested and the odds are too wide.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 169 of 323 | 52% | 186 of 345 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Carli Judice | 0 | 119 of 234 | 50% | 126 of 245 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 63 of 143 | 44% | 64 of 144 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carli Judice | 0 | 43 of 91 | 47% | 44 of 92 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 2 | Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 27 of 51 | 52% | 40 of 69 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Carli Judice | 0 | 41 of 67 | 61% | 45 of 73 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:52 | |
| 3 | Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 79 of 129 | 61% | 82 of 132 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Carli Judice | 0 | 35 of 76 | 46% | 37 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriella Fernandes | 169 of 323 | 52% | 110 of 251 | 42 of 55 | 17 of 17 | 149 of 297 | 20 of 26 | 0 of 0 |
| Carli Judice | 119 of 234 | 50% | 89 of 198 | 21 of 25 | 9 of 11 | 95 of 200 | 24 of 34 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriella Fernandes | 63 of 143 | 44% | 41 of 114 | 14 of 21 | 8 of 8 | 55 of 133 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Carli Judice | 43 of 91 | 47% | 36 of 81 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 34 of 77 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gabriella Fernandes | 27 of 51 | 52% | 19 of 40 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 45 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Carli Judice | 41 of 67 | 61% | 32 of 58 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 28 of 51 | 13 of 16 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gabriella Fernandes | 79 of 129 | 61% | 50 of 97 | 22 of 25 | 7 of 7 | 71 of 119 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Carli Judice | 35 of 76 | 46% | 21 of 59 | 9 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 33 of 72 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Gabriella but calls it a razor-thin fight that should be 50/50. He notes Gabriella is a powerful, technical striker but has poor takedown defense, though Carli is not a wrestler. He thinks Carli's volume and forward pressure could be effective, but Gabriella's power and experience should prevail. He advises caution after last week's underdog women wins.
Cody picks Gabriella Fernandes, arguing that she has been matched against wrestlers and spent most of her fights on her back, but against Judice, who is a brawler, she will have a chance to strike. He notes that Fernandes has cleaner striking and more power, while Judice has volume but may tire. Cody expects a competitive fight and thinks Fernandes can win a decision.
Daniel Vreeland picks Gabriella Fernandes, noting her physicality and knockout power. He acknowledges her weakness against wrestlers but believes Carli Judice is not a takedown threat. He expects Fernandes to have the bigger moments and win a decision, while Judice may outland in volume but lacks impact.
Jacob picks Gabriella, believing this fight is tailor-made for her as a striker against someone who won't shoot takedowns. He notes Carli showed toughness in her Contender Series fight but is inexperienced. He thinks Gabriella is the cleaner, more powerful striker and should win, though Carli could steal a round.
Fernandes' power, explosiveness, and physicality will be the difference in the striking realm. Both have holes in grappling, but the fight will stay standing and Fernandes will land more damage to get the victory.
Paul picks Judice by default (CF do - 'when in doubt, CF do'), but admits he has no strong opinion. He notes that Judice showed high volume in her Contender Series fight and that Fernandes has not faced a volume striker. However, he is not confident and calls it a pass.
The MMA Guru struggles with this pick, admitting he did research but can't remember details. He notes Carli Judice is younger (25) and has a reach advantage (68 inches vs 66), and that she had a great war on the Contender Series. He mentions Gabriella Fernandes has no takedowns in her career and is 30, but his reasoning is flimsy and he ultimately picks Judice almost arbitrarily.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tereza Bledá | 0 | 57 of 99 | 57% | 181 of 235 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 10:51 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 23 of 47 | 48% | 47 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tereza Bledá | 0 | 13 of 35 | 37% | 56 of 84 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:02 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 9 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tereza Bledá | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 38 of 47 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:29 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 16 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Tereza Bledá | 0 | 30 of 43 | 69% | 87 of 104 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:20 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 22 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tereza Bledá | 57 of 99 | 57% | 38 of 70 | 12 of 18 | 7 of 11 | 17 of 56 | 7 of 7 | 33 of 36 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 23 of 47 | 48% | 11 of 34 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 7 | 22 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tereza Bledá | 13 of 35 | 37% | 5 of 21 | 3 of 7 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 6 of 13 | 46% | 1 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tereza Bledá | 14 of 21 | 66% | 9 of 14 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 10 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tereza Bledá | 30 of 43 | 69% | 24 of 35 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 22 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 15 of 30 | 50% | 10 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is torn on this fight. He notes that Tereza Bledá has the grappling blueprint to win, but she is only 21 and could get overzealous. Gabriella Fernandes is a powerful striker and a plus 235 underdog, which feels wide. Angelo mentions a prop bet idea: if Jasmine wins, bet on Gabriella inside the distance/decision no action. He hasn't pulled the trigger yet and is waiting for props to drop.
Big Brady picks Tereza Bledá to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Fernandes is skilled on the feet with fast kicks and power, but has terrible takedown defense and ground game. Bledá can wrestle and grapple, and her ground and pound is dangerous. Brady recalls that Jasmine Jasudavicius almost finished Fernandes from crucifix, and Bledá is more dangerous than Jasudavicius. However, he worries about Bledá's cardio after she gassed in her UFC debut. If her cardio holds or she gets an early finish, she should win easily.
Cody picks Bledá but is not confident at the price. He notes she is very strong, can bulldoze into the clinch, and has a path to victory by pressing Fernandes against the cage and scoring takedowns. However, she is only 21, green, and has zero striking. He compares her to Miranda Maverick, who had all pre-fight advantages but none in the fight. He thinks the price is too high for a risky grappling-dependent fighter.
Connor picks Fernandes, noting that while both fighters are limited, Fernandes is more polished on the feet and has shown decent takedown defense. He worries about Bledá's gas tank and believes if Fernandes can avoid being taken down early, she can outwork Bledá over three rounds. Connor acknowledges Bledá's physical strength but thinks Fernandes's technique and patience will be the difference.
Daniel Levi leans toward Tereza Bledá, citing her takedown ability and top control. He notes Fernandes's poor takedown defense and get-up game. However, he is hesitant because Fernandes has dangerous striking and Bledá's top game may not be as good as Jasmine's. He expects Bledá to win via control but won't bet at the current price.
Bledá is far superior to Fernandes and will eventually get takedowns and grind her out. Fernandes is a striker who struggles off her back. Bledá's cardio is a concern but she should have an easier time corralling Fernandes than she did against Natalia Silva. Bledá wins inside the distance, likely by submission in round 2.
Paul is hesitant, noting that Bledá's path to victory is to muscle Fernandes against the cage and hold her there, which is risky and relies on judges appreciating cage control. He thinks the price is too high for such a one-dimensional approach. He picks Bledá but is not interested in betting.
The MMA Guru essentially flips a coin for this fight, admitting he has no logical breakdown. He notes Tereza Bledá is 21 with time to improve, and her losses to Jasmine Jasudavicius and Natalia Silva are not bad. He decides to pick Bledá after a failed coin flip, but with no confidence.
Zane picks Fernandes, citing her sharper striking and movement compared to Bledá's raw physicality. He notes that Bledá is young and strong but lacks technique, and Fernandes has the power to hurt her. Zane is concerned about Fernandes's grappling defense but believes she can stuff takedowns and let Bledá tire herself out. He expects Fernandes to win by decision or late TKO if she stays patient.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 0 | 24 of 54 | 44% | 149 of 215 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 11:31 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 54 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 44 of 68 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 19 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 58 of 80 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:22 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 19 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 47 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:11 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 16 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 24 of 54 | 44% | 17 of 46 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 13 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 26 of 56 | 46% | 10 of 37 | 8 of 10 | 8 of 9 | 25 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | 8 of 22 | 36% | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 12 of 27 | 44% | 5 of 17 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 12 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | 6 of 12 | 50% | 2 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 9 of 13 | 69% | 3 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 13 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 5 of 16 | 31% | 2 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hermogenes (-125), Jasudavicius (+105)
Round 1
Keeping the prelims pushing forward, two flyweights will enter the cage as Jasudavicius (7-2, 1-1 UFC) collides with Fernandes (8-1, 0-0 UFC). Neither woman has ever been finished, so referee Chris Tognoni is in this for the potential long haul. Although the Brazilian fighter offers a clap of hands, Jasudavicius has no interest in meeting it. The newcomer comes out throwing feet, reaching Jasudavicius a few times with head kicks that collide off the guard but still have an impact. Fernandes scores a solid one-two that shakes up Jasudavicius, but the Canadian gathers her thoughts and plods forward. Jasudavicius scores a single right hand, only to be met with a speedy high kick. Circling on the outside, Fernandes picks at her foe with kicks and reaching punches, all while staying out of the way from most of the offense coming back her way. Fernandes dings the Canadian with a left hand, and she sinks another one in before Jasudavicius rushes forward in pursuit of a clinch. Jasudavicius secures a body lock and looks to take Fernandes for a ride, but the Brazilian fighter keeps her balance and muscles her way to remain standing. While Jasudavicius cannot ground her opponent on the first or second attempt, she doggedly continues to push for it until she drags Fernandes to the mat. Jasudavicius climbs into an awkward half-guard position to keep Fernandes pinned down, and she drops down short left hands to stave off any referee intervention. Fernandes scoots all the way to put her seat against the fence and push off the wall, and Jasudavicius steps over to get to the side and drop down strikes. Before she can unload, Fernandes ties her down with a reverse triangle, keeping her there until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fernandes
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius
Round 2
Jasudavicius looks to push the pace to begin the round, only to get stood straight up when absorbing a fierce barrage of punches and high kicks to drive her back and loosen her top. Jasudavicius resets it against the fence, and she times a clean right hand down the pipe to rock Fernandes. The Brazilian woman blinks the stars out and powers Jasudavicius around in the clinch, but she gets bullied back to the wall before long. Like the last round, Jasudavicius calmly works until securing the takedown, and she lands in half guard to flatten Fernandes out. Jasudavicius covers her foe’s mouth and uses shoulder pressure to fluster Fernandes, all while staving off guard recovery attempts from the Brazilian. Jasudavicius slides into side control and grinds her elbow or palm on the face and staying heavy as possible. Fernandes bucks and kicks, but Jasudavicius manages to work a knee up to isolate Fernandes’ right arm and set up a crucifix. Jasudavicius unleashes a storm of short but pummeling elbows on Fernandes’ forehead, doing so until Fernandes partially recovers position. Jasudavicius gets the crucifix again and fastens her legs around Fernandes’ left arm to lock it down further, where she can open up with more elbows on the dome. Each elbow is not individually damaging, but they add up fast and force Tognoni to take a very close look at the action. Fernandes explodes frantically, forcing Jasudavicius to stand up right as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-8 Jasudavicius
Round 3
The ladies start off the final frame swinging ferociously. Fernandes lands with heavy power, getting Jasudavicius’ respect early, but not slowing her down. Jasudavicius plows forward to try to trip Fernandes down, but Fernandes circles on the outside and pops her with a right hand. The Canadian is a woman possessed when going for a takedown, and she scoops Fernandes up with a single and gingerly deposits her on the floor. Fernandes defends with an arm under the neck but no serious guillotine choke, and she sits up against the fence to try to stand up. The Brazilian leans back to try to cinch up the guillotine, and Jasudavicius stays completely calm and punches the side a few times without too much concern for the choke. Jasudavicius moves to side control on the opposite side while Fernandes hangs on, and the Canadian has a possible Von Preux choke should she wish to secure it. Fernandes lets the grip go, and Jasudavicius slides right to half guard to keep the Brazilian flat on her back. This positional control, with light ground-and-pound with a left hand every so often, allows Jasudavicius to peel precious seconds off the clock and virtually guarantee herself a victorious evening. Fernandes defends from most of the ground strikes, keeping her face from eating unnecessary strikes, and she bucks her hips and pushes her feet off the chest to push Jasudavicius back to her feet. Jasudavicius turns the corner and drops down with a surge of powerful hammerfists, and she sways past an upkick and lands hammerfists right to the bell. When time expires, Jasudavicius graciously lifts her former opponent back to her feet, and she runs off triumphantly with her hands in the air.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius (29-28 Jasudavicius)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius (30-27 Jasudavicius)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius (30-26 Jasudavicius)
The Official Result
Jasmine Jasudavicius def. Gabriella Fernandes via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Fernandes. He emphasizes that Jasudavicius needs to develop a more aggressive mindset to walk through punches and get to her clinch, but she hasn't shown that. He notes that Jasudavicius was put off by Silva's speed and couldn't time her punches, and that she needs a 'Julianna Peña' mentality. He also mentions that Jasudavicius's other loss to Alyssa Kraus is further evidence of her getting scared off her game.
Zane picks Fernandes despite acknowledging Jasudavicius has a clear wrestling advantage. He notes that Jasudavicius is a slow, ponderous striker with awkward form, and that Fernandes manages distance well and has good output. He believes Jasudavicius will struggle to close the distance and get to her top game, and that Fernandes is solid enough on the ground to survive. He also points out that Jasudavicius has a history of being put off by opponents who fire back, as seen against Natalia Silva.
Expert Picks (9)
Angelo leans towards Gabriella Fernandes, citing her power and physicality, and Casey O'Neill's long layoff which might make her timid. He acknowledges Casey's volume and wrestling but thinks Gabriella's power could be the difference. He says it's not a hill he's willing to die on.
Big Brady leans toward Gabriella Fernandes to win by decision. He likes Casey O'Neill's volume and submission game but is concerned about her long layoff due to injuries and her durability. He thinks Fernandes is the better striker and more physical, and if O'Neill can't get the fight to the ground, Fernandes will win. He notes Fernandes' poor performance against Stoliarenko but believes she is better than that.
Cody believes O'Neill's grappling and volume will overwhelm Fernandes, who has poor takedown defense. He sees O'Neill as the better prospect and expects her to win.
Connor also picks O'Neill, trusting her to play her game. He notes that Fernandes is inconsistent and can be wrapped up by aggressive fighters. He acknowledges that O'Neill's striking is crude but her pace is reliable.
Daniel leans towards Fernandes due to her improved takedown defense, physicality, and activity, while O'Neill has had multiple layoffs. He sees it as close but favors Fernandes.
The host expects O'Neill to learn from past losses and crash the pocket more effectively, mixing in grappling at opportune moments. He thinks O'Neill's top control will be key, leading to either a submission or a decision win. He notes O'Neill's layoff and training camp changes but believes she can dictate the pace and grind out a win.
Paul picks Fernandes, citing her knockout power and O'Neill's inactivity. He has low conviction but thinks Fernandes can land a big shot.
The MMA Guru picks Gabriella Fernandes as a slight underdog, citing her momentum and physicality. He believes Fernandes has more power and damage advantage, while Casey O'Neill lacks power and relies on volume. He notes O'Neill's recent inactivity and cosmetic surgeries as potential distractions. He predicts Fernandes wins by decision.
Zane picks O'Neill because of her high output and ability to swarm, creating ugly clinches and dominant positions. He notes that Fernandes has been beaten by aggressive fighters who wrap her up, and O'Neill fits that mold. He also mentions that O'Neill's striking is ineffective but her pace wins rounds.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!