Career Averages - Michael Chiesa
Career Averages - Niko Price
Michael Chiesa - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Niko Price | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Niko Price | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Michael Chiesa to win by first-round submission. He is very confident, noting Niko Price's recent brutal knockout losses and decline. He believes Price has taken too much damage and Chiesa's grappling will be overwhelming. He expects Chiesa to take Price down and submit him easily, comparing it to a hot knife through butter.
Cody believes Chiesa will win via submission, citing Price's poor grappling and Chiesa's rear-naked choke. He sees this as a perfect retirement fight for Chiesa in front of his home crowd.
Connor states that at any point in their careers, Michael Chiesa would have beaten Niko Price. He notes that Price is a booty call fighter who hasn't been training, has been brutally finished in his last two fights, and is slower than ever. Chiesa has a great chin, has never been knocked out, and can control the fight and take it to a realm where Price is not dangerous.
Daniel sees Chiesa as a level above Price historically, and expects him to use his physicality to secure a submission win in his retirement fight. He notes Price's decline and Chiesa's ability to drop opponents.
The host is extremely confident Chiesa will win, calling it a great stylistic matchup. Price has poor takedown defense and ground game, while Chiesa is a high-level grappler. Even with Chiesa's cardio issues, he should easily take Price down and submit him. However, the host does not bet the moneyline due to the steep price (-834) and instead prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop.
The host sees this as a favorable matchup for Chiesa, who should be able to take Price down and submit him. He notes Price's recent durability issues and Chiesa's grappling prowess. He expects a submission win, likely by rear-naked choke, and doesn't mind parlaying Chiesa at the heavy odds.
Paul agrees, noting Chiesa's wrestling advantage and Price's recent knockout loss. He expects Chiesa to win easily, likely by submission.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa, citing his grappling and size advantage. He believes Chiesa's experience and strength will allow him to control the fight, though he notes Chiesa's chin is suspect. He thinks Nico Price's best days are behind him and that Price has been taking damage recently. He even suggests a possible Chiesa KO on the feet.
Zane agrees that Chiesa is a clear favorite, noting that Price is a booty call fighter who hasn't been training and has been brutally finished recently. He mentions that Chiesa's retirement helped him recollect himself, and he's been looking composed and collected. He also notes that Price's power is less present and his wild grappling won't serve him here.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 72 of 160 | 45% | 81 of 169 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 39 of 145 | 26% | 51 of 158 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 15 of 45 | 33% | 15 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 10 of 41 | 24% | 11 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 24 of 57 | 42% | 25 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 17 of 58 | 29% | 20 of 62 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 33 of 58 | 56% | 41 of 66 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 12 of 46 | 26% | 20 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 72 of 160 | 45% | 47 of 128 | 25 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 52 of 132 | 20 of 28 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 39 of 145 | 26% | 9 of 95 | 16 of 29 | 14 of 21 | 36 of 140 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 15 of 45 | 33% | 15 of 41 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 10 of 41 | 24% | 2 of 27 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 5 | 9 of 39 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Chiesa | 24 of 57 | 42% | 20 of 53 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 53 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 17 of 58 | 29% | 4 of 39 | 4 of 9 | 9 of 10 | 16 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Chiesa | 33 of 58 | 56% | 12 of 34 | 21 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 36 | 17 of 22 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 12 of 46 | 26% | 3 of 29 | 6 of 11 | 3 of 6 | 11 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans Court McGee because he is all-in on fighting while Chiesa has outside distractions. He notes that McGee looked great in his last fight and is durable. He believes whoever gets the first takedown wins, and McGee is strong enough to avoid submissions.
Big Brady picks Michael Chiesa by decision but is hesitant, noting that Court McGee has great takedown defense and has fought tough grapplers. He believes Chiesa has a little left in the tank while McGee is older and has been knocked out recently. He expects a competitive fight despite the wide line.
Chiesa's superior grappling will keep McGee in bad spots, likely snatching the back and grinding out a decision win.
The Guru picks Michael Chiesa by submission, noting Chiesa has been given favorable matchups recently (Tony Ferguson, Max Griffin). He expects Chiesa to take McGee down and get a submission in the first or second round, citing McGee's age (mid-40s) and Chiesa's back-take game.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 13 of 39 | 33% | 54 of 87 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 3:48 |
| Max Griffin | 0 | 10 of 34 | 29% | 18 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 12 of 25 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:35 |
| Max Griffin | 0 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 5 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 38 of 54 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
| Max Griffin | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:19 | |
| 3 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Max Griffin | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 13 of 39 | 33% | 11 of 33 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 29 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Griffin | 10 of 34 | 29% | 9 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 30 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 6 of 17 | 35% | 4 of 13 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Griffin | 3 of 15 | 20% | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Chiesa | 5 of 16 | 31% | 5 of 14 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 11 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Griffin | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Chiesa | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Griffin | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Griffin (-125), Chiesa (+105)
Round 1
It’s a quintessential grappler vs. striker matchup to hold serve in the welterweight division, as two aging vets look to show the matchmakers they still have plenty to offer even as losses have piled up of late. Birthday boy Chiesa (17-7, 12-7 UFC) snapped a career-long skid by tapping Tony Ferguson in August, while Griffin (20-10, 8-8 UFC) has alternated wins and losses in his last five. Referee Marc Goddard will take charge of the Octagon for the next three rounds or fewer, and he kicks the fight off as the 170ers opt not to bump fists. Chiesa strafes around the cage, not letting himself slow down so that Griffin can cut him off. Griffin walks him down, but he is unable to corner him early. Chiesa keeps his front hand open to engage with grappling instead of throwing it, and he hand-fights Griffin’s lead hand in the other stance. Chiesa punches his way into a takedown attempt, clipping Griffin with a left before dragging him to a knee. Griffin leans himself against the cage, and “Maverick” glides behind him. Chiesa slithers a hook in to tangle Griffin up, and Griffin stands up. Chiesa gets the other hook in from behind and he wraps his legs together to hang on as a mean-spirited backpack. Griffin wriggles his foe off of him and separates, resetting at striking range. Chiesa bounces and keeps moving, whipping a high kick that slaps off the raised guard. Griffin catches Chiesa in the midst of an exchange, and Chiesa’s counter is so wild he nearly swings himself down to the ground. Griffin lets him recover so he can stick him with a right hand, and Chiesa’s reaction is uncomfortable as he is momentarily stunned. Griffin loads up on power strikes, drawing some swelling beneath Chiesa’s left eye. Chiesa connects with a big left, takes a takedown and drives a knee into the chest. Griffin shakes it off and tags his foe with a right hand, and Chiesa nods at the blow and shoots for a takedown. Griffin hits the ground and scrambles wildly to explode to his feet. Chiesa wrenches him back down to the mat, and he wraps a body triangle around the waist and smacks Griffin in the back and sides of the head until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chiesa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chiesa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Chiesa
Round 2
Chiesa starts off the round fresh as a daisy, springing back and forth and picking his shots from the outside. Griffin’s counters hit nothing but air, and Chiesa punches his way into a takedown that is stonewalled. Griffin darts in with a right hand, and on the way out, Chiesa lands his own punch. Griffin whiffs when Chiesa ducks down on a takedown, and two more failed shots from Chiesa lead to a tie-up against the fence. Griffin wants nothing to do with this, exploding out of the clinch so he can continue stalking Chiesa down. Griffin comes up short on power strikes, with Chiesa escaping out the back door and surprising “Pain” with a head kick. Griffin ties him up and pushes the TUF champ against the wall. Griffin grinds his foe against the fencing, getting a knee in as he imposes his weight. Goddard asks for more activity, and Chiesa is the one who answers, changing levels for a takedown shot. Before it goes anywhere, Griffin twists him around, and he eventually works his way out. Chiesa ducks a left hand to try to take the fight down, and he surprises the older fighter with a sudden flurry of uppercuts and short punches that get Griffin’s attention. Chiesa’s momentum drives him into a clinch, and he wraps his left leg around Griffin’s so he can try to wrench him down. Chiesa partially takes the back while the two remain standing, and he works on Griffin with stay-busy strikes until Griffin turns around. The round ends with a Chiesa knee to the body.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chiesa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chiesa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Chiesa
Round 3
Griffin comes out of his corner ready to throw hands, and he marches Chiesa down and tries to cut him off. Chiesa keeps moving, constantly going from side to side. As he swipes out a left hand, he shrugs after landing it. Griffin catches him with a right hand, and Chiesa retaliates and pursues a takedown. Griffin stonewalls him and pushes him aside, and he eats a right hand on the way out. As Griffin loads up, Chiesa trips him out with a single-leg takedown and takes his back. One hook in leads to two, and Chiesa hangs onto the back of “Pain” and fishes for an opening. Chiesa wraps up the rear-naked choke, and Griffin pushes off the fence to get just enough space in the grip to keep himself in the fight.
Chiesa refastens his choke and is primarily using his right arm to get it done, and as Griffin turns to his stomach, he enters the Danger Zone. Chiesa wrenches on the rear-naked choke with his other arm with sheer power and determination, and Griffin has no choice but to tap out before going out.
As Chiesa releases the sub, he walks off to celebrate. His legion of fans in the building start singing him “Happy Birthday,” and he dedicates his victory to recently deceased UFC staff member Derek Thompson.
The Official Result
Michael Chiesa def. Max Griffin R3 1:56 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Michael Chiesa as an underdog, believing Chiesa can use his grappling to neutralize Max Griffin's power. He notes Chiesa's improved fight IQ from coaching and analysis work. However, he acknowledges the fight is tricky and expects it to go the distance. He suggests possibly betting the spread (Chiesa +3.5) when props drop.
Cody picks Chiesa, citing his wrestling and submission threat. He notes Griffin's takedown defense issues and close decision losses. He thinks Chiesa can grind out a win, though he acknowledges Chiesa's inconsistency.
Connor picks Chiesa, arguing that Griffin lacks a defined game plan and often wanders out of fights. He notes that Chiesa is aggressive with his reach and clinch work, and that Griffin is not a submission threat, which is important because Chiesa has been submitted in most of his losses. Connor believes that if Chiesa pressures and forces clinches, Griffin will not have an answer.
Daniel picks Chiesa as an underdog, citing Griffin's recent decline and takedown defense issues. He believes Chiesa's grappling and strength will be decisive once he gets the fight to the mat. He notes Griffin's lack of submission threat.
This is a fight between two flaky fighters, but I lean with Griffin's activity as of late. His ability to keep the fight standing and out-strike Chiesa on the feet will allow him to win on the scorecards.
Paul picks Chiesa, emphasizing his wrestling advantage and Griffin's struggles with grapplers. He notes Griffin's age and lack of finishing ability. He thinks Chiesa can control the fight and win a decision or submission.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa, though he calls it tricky. He believes Chiesa's grappling will be the difference, as Griffin has historically struggled with grapplers (citing Colby Covington fight). He thinks Griffin lacks the dynamic striking to finish Chiesa early, and trusts Chiesa to grind out a 29-28 decision.
Zane picks Griffin, noting that Griffin is a good athlete who has shown he can mimic game plans, as he did against Mike Perry. He points out that Chiesa has been submitted in almost every loss, and while Griffin is not a submission specialist, he might catch Chiesa in a guillotine. Zane also mentions that Griffin has been competitive with tough opponents and that Chiesa's recent losses have been to high-level grapplers.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 4 of 25 | 16% | 4 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 4 of 25 | 16% | 4 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 10 of 18 | 55% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 4 of 25 | 16% | 3 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 10 of 18 | 55% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 4 of 25 | 16% | 3 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Chiesa, calling Ferguson's seven-fight losing streak and CTE concerns. He thinks Chiesa's takedowns and top pressure will be too much for the faded Ferguson, who hasn't looked good in years. He says Chiesa at -400 should be -1500.
Big Brady thinks this fight should not be sanctioned due to Ferguson's seven-fight skid and brutal losses. He notes Ferguson has been submitted by Bobby Green and Nate Diaz, and Chiesa has been submitted five times but has three d'arce choke losses. He predicts Chiesa will take Ferguson down and finish him by first-round submission, but also mentions a sprinkle on Ferguson by submission at +1400 as a prop.
Cody picks Tony Ferguson as a wild underdog, citing Chiesa's poor cardio, tendency to get submitted, and mental lapses. He notes that Ferguson has incredible durability and confidence, and that Chiesa has been submitted by lesser grapplers. Cody thinks Ferguson can win by volume or submission if Chiesa tires. He acknowledges it's a risky bet but feels the line is too wide.
Daniel refuses to pick a winner in this fight. He considers Chiesa a bully who can't take adversity and is overpriced at -750, while Ferguson is a shell of his former self on a seven-fight losing streak. He calls it a pass and says he won't pick either fighter.
Chiesa has the grappling to keep Ferguson on his back, but he has been submitted in five of seven losses. I lean Chiesa by decision, but would not tie -610 to any parlays. The value is on Ferguson by submission at +1200.
Paul picks Tony Ferguson, noting that Chiesa is a -700 favorite but has lost three straight and has cardio issues. He thinks Ferguson can win a volume-based decision or even submit Chiesa, who leaves his neck out. Paul acknowledges it's a 'plug your nose' bet but feels the plus money is worth a small play. He also mentions that Ferguson's confidence is unshaken despite the losing streak.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa over Tony Ferguson, citing Ferguson's age (40) and inability to wrestle. He expects Chiesa to use his size and strength to take Ferguson down and submit him, possibly by arm triangle. He notes Ferguson's training at Knuckleheads Boxing is not improving his game. He predicts a first or second round submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 4 of 11 | 36% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Chiesa | 9 of 16 | 56% | 7 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 4 of 11 | 36% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Chiesa | 9 of 16 | 56% | 7 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-145), Chiesa (+125)
Round 1
It has been over 22 months since “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 15 victor Chiesa (16-6, 11-6 UFC) has graced the cage, due to injuries. In the same span of time, his foe Holland (24-9, 1 NC; 11-6, 1 NC UFC) has fought five times. Both 170ers celebrate 11 UFC wins, but Chiesa joined the UFC in 2012 while Holland picked up his first victory with the promotion in late 2018. This quintessential striker vs. grappler affair will be overseen by referee Marc Goddard, and it opens up as the athletes touch gloves. Holland takes to the center of the cage immediately, and he keeps a low stance perhaps to stave off an early takedown effort. Holland works his way towards his opponent, using his long arm to reach out. He catches Chiesa early with multiple right hands and uppercuts, and Chiesa bounces off the cage wall and defends himself. Holland presses forward, and they clash together chest to chest. Holland hurls Chiesa to the mat on his back with emphasis, and he climbs on top before realizing he would be better suited on the feet. Chiesa tags him with a pair of uppercuts on the way up, and Holland walks him down, unconcerned by the power coming back at him. Holland smiles as Chiesa tries to close the distance, and he fights off a single-leg entry from “Maverick.” Holland defends it and puts his leg down on the floor, and he turns Chiesa around on the fence and starts talking to him. Holland miraculously defends from a body lock takedown, backs off and drills Chiesa with a jump knee. Holland pushes Chiesa back and belts him with a knee and a right hand. Chiesa leans over, and he eats a solid knee right on the chin. Chiesa drops to his knees, and he shoots for a double. Holland sees this coming from a mile away, and he instantly slides one arm beneath the armpit and another around the neck to secure a brabo choke. Holland uses the maneuver to turn Chiesa to his back, and the choke is still locked in tight. Chiesa tries to buck and shift his weight to get out of the submission, but “Trailblazer” is pressed tightly to him and not about to let go. With nowhere left to go, Chiesa taps out, and has now been submitted by these types of chokes three times in his UFC tenure. Holland leaps out of the cage and high-fives anyone that is willing to engage him, including the entire commentary booth as well as Chief Business Officer Hunter Campbell. Holland declares that he plans on relocating back to the middleweight division, but he looked sensational at 170 pounds against a very tough opponent.
The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Michael Chiesa R1 2:39 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
Angelo picks Kevin Holland, citing his accurate and powerful striking, and the fact that Chiesa has been away from fighting and focused on commentary. He acknowledges Holland's poor takedown defense but thinks Chiesa's takedowns are not elite and that Holland's length and BJJ will be a problem. He has a half-unit bet on Holland at -145.
Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by second-round submission (club and sub). He argues that Holland's takedown defense issues were at middleweight, and at welterweight he should be more comfortable. He questions Chiesa's activity and focus, and notes Chiesa makes mistakes on the mat, having been submitted four times. He expects Holland to land a big shot or snatch a submission.
Cody picks Chiesa by decision, noting Chiesa's style is kryptonite for Holland if he can get takedowns. He acknowledges Chiesa's layoff and injury concerns but believes at his best he can grind out a decision. He took the prop at +340, which he considered off-market. He is not fully convinced but sees value.
James sees value on Chiesa as a dog, citing his clear grappling advantage over Holland, who struggles with takedown defense. He notes Chiesa will likely shoot multiple takedowns and control the fight on the ground. However, he also acknowledges Holland's knockout power and submission threat, making him hesitant to bet heavily.
Chiesa is a talented grappler who can close the distance and get the fight to the ground. Holland still has grappling issues and Chiesa will control him from top position. Holland's takedown defense improvements will be tested but I think Chiesa grinds out a decision. I'm going with Chiesa by decision.
Paul leans Holland, questioning whether Chiesa is still the same fighter after two years off and injuries. He notes Holland's BJJ black belt and improved wrestling with Johnny Hendricks. He thinks Holland can survive takedowns and win on the feet. However, he admits Chiesa's style is a threat and calls it a live betting situation.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brady | 0 | 29 of 57 | 50% | 71 of 107 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 51 of 80 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 0 | 0 | 7:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Brady | 0 | 4 of 14 | 28% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 19 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:43 | |
| 2 | Sean Brady | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 29 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 18 of 32 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:41 | |
| 3 | Sean Brady | 0 | 17 of 25 | 68% | 38 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 14 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brady | 29 of 57 | 50% | 19 of 44 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 42 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 9 |
| Michael Chiesa | 18 of 42 | 42% | 8 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 9 | 18 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Brady | 4 of 14 | 28% | 2 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Chiesa | 10 of 19 | 52% | 3 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean Brady | 8 of 18 | 44% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Chiesa | 5 of 18 | 27% | 2 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sean Brady | 17 of 25 | 68% | 10 of 15 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 9 |
| Michael Chiesa | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
An important welterweight contest is now on deck, as TUF 15 winner Chiesa (18-5, 11-5 UFC) will look to hold the line and keep his spot in the top 10 against undefeated Philadelphia native Brady (14-0, 4-0 UFC). When the dust settles, a new contender at the logjammed 170-pound division could emerge. Referee Herb Dean’s got this one, and the fighters have nothing but respect for one another as they clap hands to start off. Brady leads the dance with a low calf kick, and Chiesa keeps his range as he leans forward with jabs. Both men shadowbox in front of the other, and Brady lets go with a right hand only to get swiped in the eye with a finger. Dean lets him recover and even brings in the doctor, and Brady clears it out enough to continue. They trade punches, with Chiesa keeping himself at a safe firing distance with his hands outstretched. Chiesa grabs Brady’s left hand with his own right, and lunges a left hand to smack Brady in the face. In another exchange, Chiesa’s left hand opens and his finger jabs into Brady’s eye. The swipe of the finger opens a cut on Brady’s face as well, and once more the doctor is invited into the proceedings. Chiesa gets sternly warned by Dean, and after a minute elapses, they get back to it again. Less than 90 seconds into the match, and two fight-impacting fouls have occurred. Brady powers forward, and Chiesa tries to back him off with jabs. Chiesa stays on his bike until he lets loose a body kick, and Brady catches it and tries to take Chiesa down. In the redoubled effort, Brady successfully grounds Chiesa, although “Maverick” jets back up to his feet as they start to have a conversation. They both share a laugh, and then Brady takes him down. Blood from Brady’s nose is leaking all over Chiesa’s back, but he does not notice as he instead looks to take Chiesa’s back. Chiesa powers his way back upright again, and he breaks the grip so that he can free himself and take the center of the cage. Chiesa walks through a body kick to lance Brady with a one-two, and Brady gathers himself to punch up top and kick down low. Chiesa looks to wing a right hand around the guard, and Brady’s glove is up in time. This close round ends as the two welterweights try to measure one another some more.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 2
They again touch gloves to commence the frame, and Chiesa begins the round with a few jabs. Brady looks to close in on him, and he tries to get past Chiesa’s reaching arms so that he can land flush. Chiesa pays him back for a heavy punch with a combination of his own. Brady comes back with a single strike, and then scores a slapping leg kick. They crash together to land flush on one another, and Chiesa needs to rest and circle away as he appears to have gotten the worse of the exchange. When he stands firm, he nails Brady with a left hand, and then catches an advancing Brady with a clean right hand. Brady runs forward into a single-leg takedown try, and Chiesa uses the wall to keep his footing about him. Chiesa puts a hand on the canvas to push off, and he tilts his shoulders to use his height as an advantage to frame Brady off of him and stop the attempt. Chiesa knees his foe in the chest a few times, but Brady is relentless as he latches on to a takedown and puts Chiesa on his seat. As Chiesa gets to a knee, Brady takes his back and snakes a hook around his waist. Chiesa appears irritated that he let this happen, and Brady gets the other hook in as he follows a twisting Chiesa wherever he travels. Although he cannot set up a choke, Brady secures the body triangle and locks it up tight. Brady sneaks an arm under the chin, but Chiesa sees it coming and stops it from succeeding. From this precarious position, Chiesa explodes out only to get dragged back down. Chiesa groans as he cannot get free before the round ends, upset with himself for getting outgrappled in this fashion.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 3
They hug it out to start off the last round, and Chiesa paws out jab after jab to start things off. The jabs turn into open-handed reaches, and he suddenly jumps in the air to pound his knee in Brady’s chin. Brady grabs him after he lands to turn him into the wall, but he does not hold him there for long. Chiesa is fired up, and he starts laying into Brady with powerful punches. Brady gets rocked and is wobbled after taking a long salvo of punches from “Maverick,” and he saves himself with a desperation takedown. Although the first attempt does not succeed, try, try again he does, and he manages to put Chiesa down. Like the last round, Brady easily circles around to take Chiesa’s back, and he gets the hooks in to secure the controlling posture. Chiesa frantically tries high-risk maneuvers like kicking himself high off the fence to get free, but there is nothing doing. Chiesa again grunts when Brady sets up and tightens the body triangle, wearing his emotions on his sleeve as Brady holds on to him. There is no choke to be found as Chiesa comfortably fights the hands, but the control time is firmly on the side of the unbeaten Pennsylvanian. Chiesa turns to break the body lock, and he succeeds in doing so to stand up. Chiesa hammers Brady with punches, but as soon as he drills Brady in the chest with a knee, Brady grabs it and slows him down. When Brady tries to take him down, Chiesa reverses him and puts Brady on the ground hard. Doing everything he can to finish the fight, Chiesa unleashes a storm of ground-and-pound, furiously pursuing a stoppage while Brady holds on for dear life. The final bell comes before the finish can materialize, and a disappointed Chiesa lets go and limps away when the fight ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady (30-27 Brady)
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Brady (30-27 Brady)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady (30-27 Brady)
The Official Result
Sean Brady def. Michael Chiesa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Sean Brady, citing his athleticism, power, and 100% takedown defense. He notes Chiesa is one-dimensional and has cardio issues, while Brady is more willing to strike and has clean doubles. He does not bet the moneyline but likes a prop: Michael Chiesa +3.5 rounds (win at least one round) at -150, as he expects Chiesa to win the third round due to Brady's potential fatigue.
Big Brady picks Michael Chiesa as an underdog at +140. He cites Chiesa's experience against top competition and his wrestling advantage. He notes that Sean Brady has not faced a wrestler of Chiesa's caliber and that Chiesa has controlled elite fighters like RDA and Neil Magny. He believes the striking is close but gives the wrestling edge to Chiesa, and predicts a decision win. He also mentions Brady is coming off an injury.
Cody is picking Brady but with low confidence due to the price tag. He notes that Brady is undefeated but has faced lower-level competition, while Chiesa is a step up. He highlights Brady's well-rounded skills: good striking, BJJ black belt, and excellent top game. He believes Brady can sprawl and out-strike Chiesa, and may even catch a guillotine if Chiesa gets reckless. However, he acknowledges Chiesa's size and durability, and that Chiesa has only lost to top grapplers like Kevin Lee, Anthony Pettis, and Vicente Luque.
Daniel Levi confidently picks Sean Brady to submit Michael Chiesa. He argues that Brady is extremely skilled, physically strong, and a black belt in jiu-jitsu with 100% takedown defense in the UFC. He criticizes Chiesa for having only a Plan A and mentally checking out when his grappling fails. Levi believes that if Chiesa gets his takedowns stuffed, he will panic, and Brady will capitalize with a submission.
Lock likes Brady but has concerns about his lack of footage off his back. He thinks Brady's wrestling is strong enough to counteract Chiesa's, and that Brady has a striking advantage with leg kicks. He notes Chiesa has mental lapses and a desk job that might distract him. Lock predicts Brady by decision at +275.
Paul is also picking Brady but is nervous about laying -160. He points out that Chiesa was a favorite just one fight ago against Vicente Luque, and that loss was a first-round submission that doesn't fully reflect the competitiveness. He notes Chiesa's size and ruggedness, but also his low striking output and lack of ground-and-pound. Paul thinks Brady's superior striking and grappling will eventually figure Chiesa out, but he's not confident enough to recommend a bet at the current price.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa as an underdog over Sean Brady. He argues that Brady has had close fights with Court McGee and Jake Matthews, and lacks KO power. He highlights Chiesa's size, reach advantage, and improvements on the feet. He expects a slow first round, then Chiesa to grind Brady against the cage, take him down, and finish with a rear-naked choke in the second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Luque | 4 of 12 | 33% | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Chiesa | 7 of 12 | 58% | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vicente Luque | 4 of 12 | 33% | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Chiesa | 7 of 12 | 58% | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is hesitant but leans Chiesa, noting that Chiesa is one-dimensional with wrestling but can dictate where the fight goes. He acknowledges Luque's power and improved wrestling camp with Kami Barzini, but thinks Chiesa's relentless grappling may be too much. He calls it a close fight and says he would avoid betting the moneyline.
Big Brady believes Chiesa's wrestling and top control will be the key. He notes Luque is hittable and has been taken down before, while Chiesa shoots for takedowns immediately and limits opponents' striking opportunities. He thinks Luque is finish-or-bust and will likely lose a decision. He picks Chiesa as a dog by decision.
Cody picks Chiesa, citing his wrestling and ability to neutralize Luque's striking. He notes that Luque has struggled against wrestlers in the past and that Chiesa's top control and pressure will be effective. Cody expects a decision win for Chiesa.
Daniel Levi picks Vicente Luque to finish Michael Chiesa, citing Luque's striking advantage, calf kicks, left hook, and opportunistic submission ability. He believes Chiesa is outgunned on the feet and will have to shoot from distance, which could lead to a guillotine or other finish for Luque. He also notes that Chiesa hasn't been truly tested at 170 and that Luque is a clear step up in competition. He thinks the line should be closer to -160.
Chiesa is a big welterweight with strong wrestling and grappling. Luque is a dangerous striker but has not faced a wrestler of Chiesa's caliber. Chiesa should take the fight to the ground and control Luque, avoiding striking exchanges. Luque's BJJ off his back is not elite, and Chiesa can grind out a decision or find a submission. The decision prop at +240 is good value.
Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a 'dogger pass situation' and taking Chiesa. He notes that Chiesa's wet blanket style may not be pretty but is effective, and that he usually avoids stand-ups by staying busy in half guard. Paul prefers the over 2.5 rounds as a bet.
The MMA Guru picks Vicente Luque to win by first-round KO. He criticizes Michael Chiesa's poor stand-up and inactivity, and believes Luque's power and takedown defense will be key. He predicts Luque will catch Chiesa coming in for a clinch and finish him with an uppercut-hook combo. He also notes Chiesa's grappling doesn't do enough damage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 24 of 52 | 46% | 93 of 125 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 15:21 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 12 of 50 | 24% | 52 of 96 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 2:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 21 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 3 of 26 | 11% | 4 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 20 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:11 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 10 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 3 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 14 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 15 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 | |
| 4 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 17 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:32 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 22 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 5 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 21 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:29 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 1 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 24 of 52 | 46% | 19 of 43 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 13 of 21 |
| Neil Magny | 12 of 50 | 24% | 7 of 42 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 45 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 7 of 16 | 43% | 4 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Neil Magny | 3 of 26 | 11% | 2 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Chiesa | 6 of 11 | 54% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 |
| Neil Magny | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Chiesa | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Neil Magny | 4 of 8 | 50% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Michael Chiesa | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 7 |
| Neil Magny | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Michael Chiesa | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Neil Magny | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady initially leaned towards Neil Magny but changed his mind after tape study. He believes Michael Chiesa's wrestling and top game will be decisive, noting Magny's 59% takedown defense and that he hasn't faced many wrestlers lately. He praises Chiesa's performances at 170 lbs and predicts he will grind out Magny for a decision win, possibly finding a submission. He says he might bet Chiesa if the line gets wider.
The host believes Neil Magny's cardio, pressure, and fight IQ will be too much for Michael Chiesa in a five-round fight. He notes that Chiesa's best chance is a submission in the first two rounds, but if Magny survives, he will take over. He predicts a late TKO for Magny, possibly in the fourth round.
The MMA Guru picks Neil Magny, citing his takedown defense, cardio, and well-roundedness. He believes Chiesa has poor stand-up and will gas out after setting a high pace in the early rounds. He notes Magny's ability to survive submissions (as Sanchez and RDA did against Chiesa) and predicts a fourth-round TKO as Magny takes over in the later rounds.
Niko Price - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Niko Price | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Niko Price | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Michael Chiesa to win by first-round submission. He is very confident, noting Niko Price's recent brutal knockout losses and decline. He believes Price has taken too much damage and Chiesa's grappling will be overwhelming. He expects Chiesa to take Price down and submit him easily, comparing it to a hot knife through butter.
Cody believes Chiesa will win via submission, citing Price's poor grappling and Chiesa's rear-naked choke. He sees this as a perfect retirement fight for Chiesa in front of his home crowd.
Connor states that at any point in their careers, Michael Chiesa would have beaten Niko Price. He notes that Price is a booty call fighter who hasn't been training, has been brutally finished in his last two fights, and is slower than ever. Chiesa has a great chin, has never been knocked out, and can control the fight and take it to a realm where Price is not dangerous.
Daniel sees Chiesa as a level above Price historically, and expects him to use his physicality to secure a submission win in his retirement fight. He notes Price's decline and Chiesa's ability to drop opponents.
The host is extremely confident Chiesa will win, calling it a great stylistic matchup. Price has poor takedown defense and ground game, while Chiesa is a high-level grappler. Even with Chiesa's cardio issues, he should easily take Price down and submit him. However, the host does not bet the moneyline due to the steep price (-834) and instead prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop.
The host sees this as a favorable matchup for Chiesa, who should be able to take Price down and submit him. He notes Price's recent durability issues and Chiesa's grappling prowess. He expects a submission win, likely by rear-naked choke, and doesn't mind parlaying Chiesa at the heavy odds.
Paul agrees, noting Chiesa's wrestling advantage and Price's recent knockout loss. He expects Chiesa to win easily, likely by submission.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa, citing his grappling and size advantage. He believes Chiesa's experience and strength will allow him to control the fight, though he notes Chiesa's chin is suspect. He thinks Nico Price's best days are behind him and that Price has been taking damage recently. He even suggests a possible Chiesa KO on the feet.
Zane agrees that Chiesa is a clear favorite, noting that Price is a booty call fighter who hasn't been training and has been brutally finished recently. He mentions that Chiesa's retirement helped him recollect himself, and he's been looking composed and collected. He also notes that Price's power is less present and his wild grappling won't serve him here.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 0 | 19 of 30 | 63% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 9 of 23 | 39% | 12 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikolay Veretennikov | 0 | 19 of 30 | 63% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 9 of 23 | 39% | 12 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 19 of 30 | 63% | 12 of 22 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 21 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Niko Price | 9 of 23 | 39% | 7 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikolay Veretennikov | 19 of 30 | 63% | 12 of 22 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 21 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Niko Price | 9 of 23 | 39% | 7 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Veretennikov (-225); Price (+185)
Round 1
A pink slip derby at 170 pounds comes next as Kazakhstan native Veretennikov (13-7, 1-3 UFC) looks to get back in the win column at the expense of the similarly skidding Price (16-9, 2 NC; 8-9, 2 NC UFC). Referee Chris Tognoni will know first who ends up prevailing, and he stands guard until needed. Late replacement Price offers a sporting tap of gloves, and it is accepted.
Price leads off with a sweeping low kick, and he leaps forward to engage, throwing hands. Veretennikov meets him in the pocket with his fists, and he ends a combo with a low kick that makes Price wince. Veretennikov lands on the Floridian cleanly upstairs, knocking him back and winding up in a clinch. Veretennikov’s lumps up the midsection with knees, setting them up when an opening presents itself to unleash them. He frames off with right hands, and Price beats him to the punch on the way to a reset. Price wades into the fray, and Veretennikov busts him in the chops with his counters. Veretennikov’s heavy hands back Price against the fence after blocking a front kick, and he smashes Price in the face with a right hand that shakes him up badly. Veretennikov appears surprised that Price’s hands dropped from the first blow, and he delivers a concussive knee to the jaw that puts Price on ice skates.
Veretennikov stands Price back up with an elbow that partially shut his lights off, and he knocks a semi-conscious Price’s head around with huge swings until an intervening Tognoni realizes that Price is completely out on his feet with one finger stuck in the cage the only thing keeping him from collapsing.
The mighty knockout is a huge feather in the cap of Veretennikov, whose roster spot might have been terminated with a defeat. Price comes to, and he does not know what happened, upset that the fight has been stopped but unsure why. He manages to come around, and he gives it up for the fighter named “Gladiator” who just deprived him of his consciousness.
The Official Result
Nikolay Veretennikov def. Niko Price R1 1:42 via KO (Elbow and Punches)
Angelo picks Nikolay Veretennikov, reasoning that he is a powerful striker who hits hard, while his opponent Jose Henrique (Niko Price) is very hittable. He acknowledges that Veretennikov has trouble with takedowns but thinks if he doesn't worry about that and just moves forward, he can win or finish the fight. He calls it a low-level fight and uses simple math: good striker vs guy who gets hit.
Cody leans towards Niko Price as a dog, noting Veretennikov's unimpressive record and Price's toughness. He admits Price is a shell of his former self but sees a path via takedowns or durability. Cody is not confident and will wait for weigh-ins.
Connor agrees with Zane, calling the fight terrible but picking Veretennikov. He notes that Price is a glass cannon who no longer has the speed or willingness to pull the trigger, and that Veretennikov should have this in the bag even if he doesn't press. Connor emphasizes that Price will walk onto shots.
Paul picks Nikolay Veretennikov, citing Price's decline in durability and cardio. He notes Veretennikov's power and body work, and Price's poor takedown defense. Paul expects Veretennikov to win by knockout or decision, though the price is high.
The host picks Nikolay Veretennikov over Niko Price. He notes Veretennikov took Michael Morales to a split decision, though he looked iffy against Prado. He thinks Price has lost too many times, moves slow, and despite some power and athleticism, Veretennikov should win a competitive 29-28 decision.
Zane picks Veretennikov despite calling the fight awful. He argues that Niko Price is washed up, slower, and more hittable, and that Veretennikov should win by using his reach and straight punches. Zane notes that Price can't do anything without running into a straight punch, and Veretennikov could also take him down.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Price | 0 | 34 of 61 | 55% | 46 of 76 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jacobe Smith | 0 | 46 of 74 | 62% | 73 of 101 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 5:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niko Price | 0 | 19 of 37 | 51% | 23 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jacobe Smith | 0 | 33 of 53 | 62% | 46 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:06 | |
| 2 | Niko Price | 0 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 23 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jacobe Smith | 0 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 27 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Price | 34 of 61 | 55% | 19 of 43 | 4 of 7 | 11 of 11 | 27 of 49 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 8 |
| Jacobe Smith | 46 of 74 | 62% | 39 of 66 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 31 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niko Price | 19 of 37 | 51% | 10 of 26 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Jacobe Smith | 33 of 53 | 62% | 27 of 46 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 21 | |
| 2 | Niko Price | 15 of 24 | 62% | 9 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 6 |
| Jacobe Smith | 13 of 21 | 61% | 12 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 10 |
Angelo picks Jacobe Smith because he sees him as a strong prospect with wrestling and finishing ability, while Niko Price is older, has a weak chin, and is being fed to prospects. He notes that Price is fun but past his prime, and Smith's wrestling and pace will be too much. He warns against betting such heavy favorites, saying risking $1400 to make $100 is not worth it.
Big Brady is very confident in Jacobe Smith, describing it as a bad matchup for Niko Price. He notes Price is older, has taken a lot of damage, and is on a decline, while Smith has power and wrestling. Brady believes Smith can knock Price out on the feet or take him down and use vicious ground and pound. He predicts a first-round knockout, comparing it to the Wellmaker vs Moutinho fight.
The host expects Jacobe Smith to flatline Niko Price within the first round and a half, citing Smith's youth and power. He notes the odds are steep at minus 2000, but still predicts an early knockout finish.
The host calls this a 'big lock of the card', confidently predicting Jacobe Smith to win by first-round TKO. He highlights Smith's impressive KO debut and believes he will repeat that performance against an aging Niko Price who looked geriatric in his last fight. The host notes that Smith's grappling and power will be too much for Price.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Themba Gorimbo | 0 | 68 of 127 | 53% | 141 of 223 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 2 | 0 | 9:14 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 16 of 53 | 30% | 58 of 100 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Themba Gorimbo | 0 | 32 of 67 | 47% | 45 of 87 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:46 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 13 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Themba Gorimbo | 0 | 32 of 53 | 60% | 52 of 76 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 1:52 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 9 of 31 | 29% | 19 of 41 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:00 | |
| 3 | Themba Gorimbo | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 44 of 60 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 4:36 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 26 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Themba Gorimbo | 68 of 127 | 53% | 44 of 97 | 9 of 15 | 15 of 15 | 43 of 85 | 6 of 13 | 19 of 29 |
| Niko Price | 16 of 53 | 30% | 13 of 43 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 5 | 11 of 48 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Themba Gorimbo | 32 of 67 | 47% | 21 of 55 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 9 | 23 of 47 | 1 of 4 | 8 of 16 |
| Niko Price | 6 of 17 | 35% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Themba Gorimbo | 32 of 53 | 60% | 21 of 37 | 6 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 33 | 5 of 9 | 11 of 11 |
| Niko Price | 9 of 31 | 29% | 7 of 26 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 28 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Themba Gorimbo | 4 of 7 | 57% | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 |
| Niko Price | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gorimbo (-278), Price (+225)
Round 1
One of two entries tonight in the “welterweight action fight club” will play out next, as Gorimbo (13-4, 3-1 UFC) is entering that category while Price (16-7, 2 NC; 8-7, 2 NC UFC) has been a member practically since day one. Any matchup in that section of 170-pound fighters seems to have a greater likelihood—anecdotally, with those numbers not officially tracked right now—of receiving some sort of “of the night” bonus. Both fighters could use it, as Gorimbo is famous for having seven dollars in his bank account while Price has six kids to feed. Referee Herb Dean will serve as the Octagon ranger, and when he calls for them to fight, they touch gloves. Price walks directly into a front kick when he moves to the center of the cage, and he further gets his bell rung by flying punches from Gorimbo. The Zimbabwe native lets his hands fly, and Price has to reset as he gets clipped with a left hand. Gorimbo aims two thudding leg kicks to the front leg of his foe, and when Price tries to counter with a third, Gorimbo dodges and connects with it. Gorimbo further does damage with his calf kick, and he strings together a pair of straight punches with a step-in knee to the belly. Price takes another chopping kick as he slowly advances, and Gorimbo sticks him with a right hand. Price attempts a body kick, and he gets caught with a fastball of a right hand. Price still marches ever onward, through a low kick and a one-two without flinching. Price squares up, opening him up to three punches, a leg kick and a takedown shot. “The Answer” deposits Price on his back, where he starts working with elbows and punches. Price gets stacked up when attempting an armbar, as Gorimbo punches through it to stop it from materializing. Gorimbo steps over to half guard as Price defends with a kimura sweep, and Gorimbo breaks out of it to open Price up with punches and effective elbows. Price looks to sit up, and Gorimbo hops around to take his back and get both hooks in. Price stands up, and Gorimbo hangs on his foe’s back and grips hold of a neck crank. Price responds by slamming Gorimbo on his head, and Gorimbo rides it out to secure a body triangle. From an awkward angle, the two punch one another until the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo
Round 2
Price starts out the second round marching Gorimbo down, putting a jab and a front kick in his face early. Gorimbo chains punches together in response, with two up top and then a few to the body. Price retaliates with a body kick, and he catches Gorimbo coming in but still eats a few back. Gorimbo winds up with his power calf kick, and he plants the ball of his foot on Price’s sternum. Price punches his way into a clinch, and Gorimbo shakes him up with left hooks and uppercuts up close before tackling Price to the mat. Price turns to his stomach to survive and stand back up, all while eating clubbing left hands. Price gets to his knees and then back upright, and Gorimbo hurriedly mat returns him. Price once more stands, and Gorimbo is imposing his full weight on him, kneeing him in the breadbasket. They trade knees from close proximity, and Gorimbo tries for a trip on the inside but does not land it. Price turns him around as they dirty box with one another, and Price attacks a double that is easily stifled. Price goes after another double, transitioning to a single as Gorimbo’s hips are wide. Gorimbo turns the corner and knees Price in the chest, and they get back upright and split up. Price stalks a potentially tiring Gorimbo down and slugs him in the chops, getting his attention with power punches until they get clinched. Gorimbo responds with a knee on the break, and Price is out of range. Price marches forward to connect with a one-two, and Gorimbo slaps his front leg and then jabs him to the body with a front kick. Price meanders forward, left eye bloodied, and he walks into a takedown shot. Gorimbo pushes through his hips, tosses aside a leglock and starts smacking Price upside the head. Price stands up, and Gorimbo wrenches him down by imposing his body weight on him. As Price defends with a kimura, the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo
Round 3
The welterweights reach Round 3, tired and beat up but still ready for another five minutes. Gorimbo leads off with two chopping kicks, hits a third and then goes up top with his other leg. Price sees it coming in the nick of time and defends a subsequent shot with a guillotine choke. Gorimbo powers through the choke to slam Price on his back, opening up with ground-and-pound as Price tries to push off the fence with his foot. Gorimbo controls his man while slinging short right hands, keeping Price trapped between the corner of the floor and the wall. Price again tries to push off the fence, this time tugging on the links with his toes. Dean calls him on this, and Price stops. Price explodes to sit up, only for Gorimbo grind him back down while keeping Price’s right leg laced to stop him from escaping. Price kicks his foe off his chest, and Gorimbo stands and backs up. Price throws a hard kick to the calf from his back, and Gorimbo allows him to do this so he can dive in to reclaim top position. Gorimbo draws further blood with slow but methodical strikes, stepping over to half guard on the other side. Price times this guard pass to burst upright with 55 seconds left in the round. Gorimbo cinches his hands around the waist to dump Price to the floor. Price stands up again through sheer force of will, and Gorimbo hangs on from his back and slides off. Gorimbo looks for an unorthodox banana split, Suloev stretch or kneebar, and time expires before he can get anything.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo (30-27 Gorimbo)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo (30-27 Gorimbo)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo (30-27 Gorimbo)
The Official Result
Themba Gorimbo def. Niko Price via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Themba Gorimbo, acknowledging that picking against Niko Price is difficult due to his unpredictability. However, he believes Gorimbo is the overall better fighter with a good combination of technical striking, wrestling, and the ability to push forward. He notes that Price can win on any given day but that Gorimbo's skills should prevail.
Big Brady picks Themba Gorimbo to win by first-round knockout. He notes Gorimbo is improving rapidly while Price is diminishing, having been knocked out by Robbie Lawler in 30 seconds and looking poor in recent fights. He questions whether Gorimbo will stand and bang or wrestle, but hopes for an exciting finish. He thinks the line is wild at -375 but still picks Gorimbo. He mentions Gorimbo could also control Price on the ground like he did against Brahimaj.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Niko Price has looked bad for years and has no way to stop a takedown. He points out that Price's last funky knockout was in 2019 and he has since struggled. Connor believes Gorimbo's wrestling, though not great, is enough to control Price.
Daniel is unimpressed with Gorimbo's skills, calling him slow and not a future top-15 guy, but he acknowledges that Price may be too washed to capitalize. He loves Price's ability off his back but is not confident enough to pick him. Daniel decides to pass on betting this fight, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation.
The host is surprised the line is so wide, as Gorimbo is on a three-fight winning streak but not all that good. Price has veteran experience and durability; if he holds up early, Gorimbo will struggle to grind him out. Price has a better gas tank and should pull away late, finishing in the second or third round.
The MMA Guru picks Themba Gorimbo, citing his speed advantage on the feet and Price's suspect chin. He notes that Gorimbo is on a three-fight win streak and is being given 'layups' by the UFC. He expects Gorimbo to win by TKO on the feet, as Price is too slow and doesn't have the grappling to take Gorimbo down.
Zane thinks Gorimbo can blanket Price with his wrestling, even though Gorimbo's control is poor and he often stalls in ugly positions. He notes that Price has looked washed for years, lacks preventative skills, and has no way to stop takedowns. Zane acknowledges it's not much but believes Gorimbo can tie Price up and slow him down.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Price | 0 | 108 of 224 | 48% | 138 of 259 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 3:37 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 96 of 210 | 45% | 111 of 225 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niko Price | 0 | 16 of 51 | 31% | 21 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:10 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 34 of 72 | 47% | 40 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Niko Price | 0 | 34 of 65 | 52% | 50 of 83 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 30 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 3 | Niko Price | 0 | 58 of 108 | 53% | 67 of 118 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 41 of 95 | 43% | 41 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Price | 108 of 224 | 48% | 78 of 181 | 24 of 33 | 6 of 10 | 78 of 182 | 9 of 19 | 21 of 23 |
| Alex Morono | 96 of 210 | 45% | 74 of 184 | 13 of 15 | 9 of 11 | 91 of 204 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niko Price | 16 of 51 | 31% | 12 of 45 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 14 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Alex Morono | 34 of 72 | 47% | 26 of 63 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 32 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Niko Price | 34 of 65 | 52% | 22 of 48 | 8 of 12 | 4 of 5 | 16 of 44 | 3 of 5 | 15 of 16 |
| Alex Morono | 21 of 43 | 48% | 19 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Niko Price | 58 of 108 | 53% | 44 of 88 | 12 of 16 | 2 of 4 | 48 of 91 | 6 of 12 | 4 of 5 |
| Alex Morono | 41 of 95 | 43% | 29 of 81 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 39 of 92 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Alex Morono, ignoring their first fight because it was a while ago and both have evolved. He believes Morono is the more technical striker and better grappler, and that his awkward striking will avoid Niko Price's power. He notes Price is always dangerous but thinks Morono's well-roundedness will prevail.
Big Brady thinks this fight ends inside the distance with someone getting knocked out. He leans toward Alex Morono getting the knockout, citing Niko Price's shot durability and recent KO loss to Robbie Lawler. He compares it to Morono's KO of Donald Cerrone. However, he notes Price has power and a 90% finish rate, so he will play both sides. He considers Price a live dog at 7,300.
Cody leans toward Price, noting his volume and power. He acknowledges Price's durability is questionable but believes Morono's low volume and lack of power make Price live. Cody mentions Price's previous KO of Morono in 2017 and thinks Price can do it again. He warns that Morono may wait for a perfect shot, but Price's pressure could overwhelm him.
Daniel recalls Morono's struggle against Court McGee and notes Price's power. He thinks it's a dog or pass situation and picks Price to win again.
The host expects a repeat of their first fight, where Morono dominated before getting caught. Price's chin is compromised after recent knockouts, and his confidence is low. Morono's stick-and-move style, power, and defensive jiu-jitsu should allow him to land big shots and finish Price, likely by knockout in the second round.
Paul leans toward Price, despite acknowledging Price's durability may be fading. He notes Price has sickening volume and power, and Morono's recent performance against Court McGee was poor. Paul thinks Price can outwork Morono and possibly land a KO. He mentions Price's power is the last thing to go and that Morono may be over the hill.
The MMA Guru picks Alex Morono, citing Niko Price's recent chin issues and inactivity. He notes that Price has lost his last two by TKO and looked scripted against Lawler. Morono has been more active and consistent, though he didn't look great in his last fight. He predicts Morono by decision, possibly TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Lawler | 1 | 8 of 10 | 80% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robbie Lawler | 1 | 8 of 10 | 80% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Lawler | 8 of 10 | 80% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Niko Price | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robbie Lawler | 8 of 10 | 80% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Niko Price | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Price but is hesitant, calling it a tricky betting spot. He notes Price is younger and less beat up, with similar wild style to Lawler. Lawler is declining and likely to retire. He expects a fun slugfest but is unsure about a finish, and fears the round line might be a trap. He does not place a bet.
Big Brady leans towards Robbie Lawler to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Niko Price has looked bad lately, taking damage and battling injuries, while Lawler still has power and showed life against Brian Barbarena. He believes both will stand and bang, and Lawler lands first. He is surprised by the line (Price -260) and thinks Lawler is very live. He mentions that Price blocks punches with his face and has been knocked out recently.
Cody picks Price but doesn't like the -260 price. He thinks Lawler is past his prime and has been finished recently. He considers the under 2.5 rounds as a better bet, expecting a finish. He notes both fighters have trained together at ATT, which could affect the fight.
Connor picks Niko Price because Robbie Lawler's style is not built for an aging fighter; his reliance on being in the pocket and taking risks is no longer sustainable. Price is a chaotic puncher who can absorb damage and keep coming, and Lawler's decline in durability and cardio makes him vulnerable. Connor notes that Lawler could try to be more methodical but ultimately the other shoe has dropped.
Daniel Levi picks Price, citing his youth and improved volume in recent fights. He notes that Lawler, at 41, is a step slower and has shown a tendency to fade in fights. Levi acknowledges that either fighter could get finished, but believes Price's higher output will allow him to pull away down the stretch. He also mentions that Price has shown good grappling defense and attacks from bottom, which could be a factor if Lawler takes him down. Levi expresses a desire to see Lawler win in his retirement fight but is not counting on it.
James picks Niko Price to win by knockout. He believes Lawler is washed, citing his performance against Nick Diaz where he was touched up. He trusts Price's durability and power more than Lawler's at this stage. He does not advocate betting Price at -260 moneyline, but likes the knockout prop. He notes Price has been finished before but thinks he will get the KO.
Price has youth, speed, and power advantages, and can outwork Lawler late. Lawler still has technical striking and power early, but his durability and pace are questionable. The fight likely ends in a knockout, with Price finishing Lawler in the later rounds. The fight doesn't go to decision is the favorite prop.
Paul picks Price, acknowledging Lawler's legendary career but noting he is 41 and not the same fighter. He thinks Price's volume will be too much. He mentions Lawler's recent losses and that he has been fighting for decades. He says he would feel happy if Lawler wins but his bank account prefers Price.
The MMA Guru picks Niko Price to win by KO in the third round. He believes Lawler has lost his pain tolerance and finishing ability, while Price storms forward in later rounds. He cites Price's performances against Michael Pereira and Luke Jumeau as evidence of his late-round pressure, and notes the age and reach advantage for Price.
Zane picks Niko Price because Robbie Lawler's style is built on narrow margins and he is declining in durability, cardio, and vision. Price is a messy but powerful puncher who can absorb punishment and land a wild shot as Lawler slows down. Zane notes that Lawler could look good early but will likely get caught, and he hopes Lawler wins but cannot pick him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rowe | 0 | 110 of 247 | 44% | 150 of 293 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 63 of 139 | 45% | 64 of 140 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 1:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philip Rowe | 0 | 34 of 87 | 39% | 36 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 20 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Philip Rowe | 0 | 34 of 85 | 40% | 46 of 101 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 18 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:28 | |
| 3 | Philip Rowe | 0 | 42 of 75 | 56% | 68 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 26 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rowe | 110 of 247 | 44% | 66 of 197 | 16 of 22 | 28 of 28 | 88 of 218 | 14 of 21 | 8 of 8 |
| Niko Price | 63 of 139 | 45% | 49 of 123 | 7 of 8 | 7 of 8 | 57 of 129 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philip Rowe | 34 of 87 | 39% | 12 of 63 | 5 of 7 | 17 of 17 | 30 of 80 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Niko Price | 20 of 53 | 37% | 12 of 44 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 19 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Philip Rowe | 34 of 85 | 40% | 20 of 68 | 9 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 29 of 77 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Niko Price | 17 of 40 | 42% | 13 of 35 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Philip Rowe | 42 of 75 | 56% | 34 of 66 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 29 of 61 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 8 |
| Niko Price | 26 of 46 | 56% | 24 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 39 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 3 |
Angelo picks Philip Rowe, citing his length, volume, and striking. He notes Rowe's takedown defense isn't great but Niko Price's takedown offense isn't great either. He expresses concern about Price's year off and potential hurricane impact on his training camp. He says he probably won't bet this fight because Price is dangerous and can look amazing or get caught.
Big Brady picks Rowe to win by knockout in the second round, citing his reach (80.5 inches), size, and power. He notes Price is hittable (47% striking defense) and unlikely to wrestle. He expects a striking battle where Rowe's length and power prevail, though he acknowledges Price is live for a knockout.
Cody leans towards Rowe as a live underdog, noting his reach and combinations. He thinks Price takes damage and may slow down. He prefers to bet Rowe live after likely losing the first round.
Connor also picks Niko Price, citing Price's experience and well-roundedness. He notes that Rowe has potential but hasn't shown the ability to defend takedowns while striking, and Price has consistent aspects to his game that allow him to stick to his game plan for multiple rounds.
Daniel Levi picks Philip Rowe to knock out Niko Price. He likes Rowe's reach, straight right, and Jiu-Jitsu, and believes Price is slowing down after ACL surgery. He notes Rowe's slow starts but thinks he will find his range and finish. He is willing to bet the underdog.
The host picks Niko Price to win inside the distance, citing Price's experience and ability to drag opponents into a war. He thinks Price will use a grapple-heavy approach to get dominant position and finish Rowe. He notes that Rowe is still green and may not be comfortable in a chaotic fight. He likes the -140 price tag on the veteran.
Paul is torn but picks Price for the show. He notes Price's durability and volume, but acknowledges Rowe's reach and combinations. He doesn't have a strong edge and won't bet it.
The MMA Guru picks Philip Rowe, citing Niko Price's poor performance against Alex Oliveira and his long layoff. He thinks Rowe's technical striking and grappling will be enough to win by TKO. He expresses frustration that Price is being fed to Rowe instead of getting a fun matchup.
Zane picks Niko Price based on experience and resilience, noting that Price has been in more brawls against better fighters and has the option to wrestle if needed. He is hesitant because Price loses often and Rowe could win if he becomes comfortable defending takedowns while striking, but Zane hasn't seen that yet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Price | 0 | 65 of 112 | 58% | 83 of 131 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 64 of 116 | 55% | 108 of 167 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niko Price | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 16 of 22 | 72% | 34 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:48 | |
| 2 | Niko Price | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 29 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 21 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Niko Price | 0 | 39 of 60 | 65% | 39 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 34 of 68 | 50% | 53 of 91 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Price | 65 of 112 | 58% | 31 of 72 | 17 of 23 | 17 of 17 | 56 of 99 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 |
| Alex Oliveira | 64 of 116 | 55% | 37 of 83 | 7 of 11 | 20 of 22 | 45 of 93 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niko Price | 7 of 17 | 41% | 3 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 16 of 22 | 72% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 7 | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 8 | |
| 2 | Niko Price | 19 of 35 | 54% | 9 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 11 |
| Alex Oliveira | 14 of 26 | 53% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 8 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 3 | Niko Price | 39 of 60 | 65% | 19 of 34 | 12 of 18 | 8 of 8 | 39 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 34 of 68 | 50% | 22 of 53 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 7 | 26 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 9 |
Angelo picks Alex Oliveira, assuming veteran savvy will prevail over Niko Price's wildness. He notes that Oliveira is more technical, has more experience, and has more ways to win, but he often gets sucked into brawls. Angelo expects Oliveira to use leg kicks to slow Price down and fight a smart fight. He likes Oliveira in DraftKings at $7,800 and recommends using slates for monkey knife fight to bet on Oliveira's more. He acknowledges that Price could win with a crazy knockout.
Big Brady picks Niko Price to win inside the distance, citing Oliveira's poor recent form (2-5 in last 7, looking like he doesn't want to be there). Price is the hungrier fighter, comes forward with volume, and doesn't slow down. Oliveira has been finished multiple times (5 submissions, 1 KO) and has slowed down in recent fights. Brady expects Price to finish Oliveira early, possibly by submission given Oliveira's submission losses, and thinks this could be Oliveira's last fight if he loses.
Cody picks Niko Price, noting that Oliveira has declined significantly and is a one-round fighter with poor cardio. Price is competitive in his losses and has shown he can push the pace and wear opponents down. He expects Price to stuff takedowns, keep the fight standing, and take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Price has a baby on the way, which might motivate him.
Daniel Levi picks Niko Price but expresses concern about laying -190 on him, as he prefers Price as an underdog. He notes Price's improved volume and resilience, while Oliveira is a seasoned vet with clinch knees and power but has shown questionable durability and a tendency to tap quickly. Levi expects a three-round war and thinks Price will edge it out due to digging deeper. He acknowledges a finish is possible but leans decision.
I think Price has improved his volume and grappling, while Oliveira has declined. Price is the more durable and active fighter. Oliveira is a wild card but has looked poor lately. I like Price by KO at +150 and the under 2.5 rounds. Price should overwhelm Oliveira.
Paul also picks Price, surprised the line is only -165. He notes that Oliveira looks over the hill, with poor weight cuts and lethargic performances. Price has been competitive against top competition and should have a cardio advantage. He expects Price to win by decision or late stoppage.
The MMA Guru picks Niko Price, noting Alex Oliveira's tendency to fade in the third round and his recent chin issues. Price has cardio and toughness advantages, and he has KO power. He predicts Price will win by TKO in the third round after a competitive first two rounds.
Expert Picks (9)
Big Brady picks Michael Chiesa to win by first-round submission. He is very confident, noting Niko Price's recent brutal knockout losses and decline. He believes Price has taken too much damage and Chiesa's grappling will be overwhelming. He expects Chiesa to take Price down and submit him easily, comparing it to a hot knife through butter.
Cody believes Chiesa will win via submission, citing Price's poor grappling and Chiesa's rear-naked choke. He sees this as a perfect retirement fight for Chiesa in front of his home crowd.
Connor states that at any point in their careers, Michael Chiesa would have beaten Niko Price. He notes that Price is a booty call fighter who hasn't been training, has been brutally finished in his last two fights, and is slower than ever. Chiesa has a great chin, has never been knocked out, and can control the fight and take it to a realm where Price is not dangerous.
Daniel sees Chiesa as a level above Price historically, and expects him to use his physicality to secure a submission win in his retirement fight. He notes Price's decline and Chiesa's ability to drop opponents.
The host is extremely confident Chiesa will win, calling it a great stylistic matchup. Price has poor takedown defense and ground game, while Chiesa is a high-level grappler. Even with Chiesa's cardio issues, he should easily take Price down and submit him. However, the host does not bet the moneyline due to the steep price (-834) and instead prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop.
The host sees this as a favorable matchup for Chiesa, who should be able to take Price down and submit him. He notes Price's recent durability issues and Chiesa's grappling prowess. He expects a submission win, likely by rear-naked choke, and doesn't mind parlaying Chiesa at the heavy odds.
Paul agrees, noting Chiesa's wrestling advantage and Price's recent knockout loss. He expects Chiesa to win easily, likely by submission.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa, citing his grappling and size advantage. He believes Chiesa's experience and strength will allow him to control the fight, though he notes Chiesa's chin is suspect. He thinks Nico Price's best days are behind him and that Price has been taking damage recently. He even suggests a possible Chiesa KO on the feet.
Zane agrees that Chiesa is a clear favorite, noting that Price is a booty call fighter who hasn't been training and has been brutally finished recently. He mentions that Chiesa's retirement helped him recollect himself, and he's been looking composed and collected. He also notes that Price's power is less present and his wild grappling won't serve him here.
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