Jai Herbert

Angelo picks Mandel Nallo, citing his diverse striking, kicks, and finishing ability. He criticizes Jai Herbert for hesitating and not throwing enough, noting his only notable moment was almost knocking out Ilia Topuria. He believes Mandel's counter-striking and grappling will secure the win.

Big Brady confidently picks Mandel Nallo, criticizing Jai Herbert's boring, point-fighting style and lack of chin. He notes Nallo has 14 wins, all under 1.5 rounds, and expects a first-round knockout. Brady expresses hope that Herbert gets cut after the fight.

Cody picks Mandel Nallo, citing his higher volume and better ground game compared to Jai Herbert's low output. He notes that Herbert tends to fade and that Nallo has been training with high-level fighters. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

Daniel is impressed by Nallo's striking and believes Herbert's chin is questionable. He thinks Nallo's power will be too much for Herbert, despite Nallo's history of fading in longer fights. He predicts a devastating knockout win for Nallo.

Nallo is a complete unknown after three years away; his last fights were low-level. Herbert is more experienced but chinny. No strong opinion; if forced, lean Herbert due to value. Not betting this fight.

The host mentions Mandel Nallo getting a big stage but does not make a pick for the fight.

James picks Mandel Nallo to win via knockout in round one. He believes Nallo's funky striking and early power will be too much for Jai Herbert, who has chin issues. If the fight goes past round one, he leans Herbert, but he expects an early finish.

The host is surprised by the love on Nallo but thinks he has more paths to victory, including power striking and a BJJ black belt. He expects Nallo to land a big shot and put Herbert away, but thinks the fight will be closer than the odds indicate. He would stay off the fight unless Nallo's line drops to around -125.

Angelo picks Chris Padilla, calling Jai Herbert overrated and noting his mediocre takedown defense. He believes Padilla's pressure, durability, and explosiveness will be key. He hopes Padilla wrestles more in this fight. He mentions the line is moving and he's picking Padilla while he's still a slight underdog.

Brady sees Padilla as a live dog who has improved a lot. He notes Herbert is hesitant and low-volume now, and Padilla has finishing upside with grappling and durability. Brady predicts a close decision win for Padilla, possibly with big moments and takedowns.

The host disagrees with the betting public moving towards Padilla. He believes Herbert is a cleaner striker with improved striking defense and durability, allowing him to operate at distance and win on the scorecards.

Angelo picks Bedoya because of his high output and pressure, noting Herbert is a low-volume technical striker who often stares at opponents. He expects Bedoya to land over 100 significant strikes and win a decision. He placed a half-unit bet on Bedoya at +145, expecting the line to tighten.

Big Brady is taking another underdog here, citing Jai Herbert's low volume and poor durability. He notes Herbert has become tentative and lacks the chin for brawls, while Bedoya is cutting to lightweight for the first time and has volume and durability advantages. He predicts Bedoya wins by decision.

Cody picks Rolando Bedoya, citing his high volume and pressure. He notes that Bedoya lands over 100 significant strikes per fight, while Herbert has low output and tends to fade under pressure. Cody thinks Bedoya's durability and pace will overwhelm Herbert, who has been knocked out in three of four losses. He also mentions that Bedoya arguably beat Chas Skelly and should have won.

Daniel picks Bedoya, viewing him as a high-volume brawler who can close the distance and overwhelm Herbert. He criticizes Herbert's low output and compares him to a poor man's Leon Edwards. He believes Bedoya's pace and pressure will be too much, especially now that he's at his natural weight class.

Herbert is the technically better fighter. If his durability holds up, he should out-volume and outpace Bedoya to win on the scorecards.

Paul picks Rolando Bedoya, noting that Herbert has low volume and has been knocked out multiple times. He thinks Bedoya's volume and pressure will be too much for Herbert. Paul also mentions that Herbert was not booked for the UK card, which suggests the UFC doesn't value him highly. He believes Bedoya can win a decision or even stop Herbert.

Angelo thinks Jai Herbert will win by out-pointing in a boring striking match, citing Herbert's power and danger. However, he is concerned about Herbert's poor takedown defense and will not bet on him because of that vulnerability.

Big Brady picks Farès Ziam by decision, but says it's his least favorite fight on the card. He notes Ziam is a point fighter with no power but good defense, while Herbert has power but has become tentative after being knocked out multiple times. He thinks Ziam's youth and improvements give him the edge, but expects a boring fight.

Cody sees the fighters as similar but notes Ziam showed improved wrestling against Figlak. However, he thinks Herbert's reach advantage and home crowd could sway a close decision. He likes Herbert at +140 as a dog or pass.

Daniel picks Farès Ziam, citing his durability advantage over Jai Herbert, who has been dropped multiple times. He notes both are long, low-output strikers but Ziam has better defense and more impact. He has been waiting for a highlight-reel KO from Ziam and thinks this could be the fight. He also mentions Ziam's improved grappling and training in jiu-jitsu. He acknowledges Herbert's power but believes Ziam's durability and defense will be the difference.

The host picks Farès Ziam, citing his youth, improvements, and ability to mix striking with takedowns. He believes Herbert is slowing down and that Ziam will put the hurting on him. He predicts a decision win for Ziam.

Paul picks Ziam, citing his youth (26 vs 34), improvement, and cardio advantage. He thinks Ziam's volume and durability will overcome Herbert's power. He notes Ziam's similar reach negates Herbert's length advantage.

Angelo believes Klein is the more technical striker and can lean on grappling if needed. He notes Klein has a nice kick behind his jab and is never out of position. He thinks Jai Herbert has a size and power advantage but finds ways to lose. He likes Klein to win but thinks -190 is a bit wide given Klein's vulnerability.

Big Brady picks Klein, citing his power in hands and head kicks, and Herbert's poor striking defense (42%) and questionable chin. He notes Klein has more ways to win, including takedowns if needed, as Herbert's takedown defense is 55%. He predicts a second-round knockout, but acknowledges Herbert's size and reach advantage.

Cody picks Klein by knockout, citing his power and athleticism. He notes Klein is a finisher on the regional scene and has improved his wrestling and cardio. He thinks Herbert's durability is suspect and Klein will land a straight shot up the middle. He says Klein likes fighting taller opponents and can find gaps in Herbert's guard.

Connor picks Klein, noting that Herbert is fragile and lacks assertiveness in the clinch. He points out that Klein is durable, hits hard, and is comfortable at the same range Herbert wants to fight. Connor believes Klein's power and durability will overwhelm Herbert, who tends to fall apart when pressured.

Jacob thinks Klein is the play but is not putting money on it because he sees better value elsewhere. He notes Jai Herbert is a very good striker when confident, but his confidence has been shaken since the Ilia fight. He thinks Klein has wrestling as an ace in the hole and should withstand Herbert's striking, but Herbert could land a sniper shot.

Herbert is a good distance striker with height and reach advantages, but has durability issues and has been knocked out before. Klein has a two-fight winning streak but his grappling success came against opponents who gave up positions. If Herbert stays safe at distance and avoids getting flatlined, he should outpoint Klein over 15 minutes. The comparison is made to Jonathan Martinez's recent upset win.

Paul picks Klein, noting he can utilize wrestling and top control to win a decision. He says Klein's takedowns and top game are effective, and Herbert's takedown defense is a question. He thinks Klein by decision is a likely outcome, but also acknowledges Klein's power. He says the prop prices for Klein by KO and by decision are both plus 225.

The MMA Guru picks Ľudovít Klein over Jai Herbert, praising Klein's toughness and explosiveness on the feet. He notes Herbert is underrated but has a suspect chin and ground game, while Klein has better durability and can win in multiple areas including striking and grappling. He believes Herbert cannot pressure Klein over the distance like others have, and Klein's regional submission wins give him an edge.

Angelo picks Jai Herbert but expresses concern about Kyle Nelson's two-year layoff, noting it's hard to know what version of Nelson will show up. He highlights Herbert's technical striking and movement, and that he looked sharp before being knocked out by Ilia Topuria. He advises leaving Herbert out of parlays due to the uncertainty.

Big Brady picks Jai Herbert to win by first-round knockout. He loves Herbert's striking and power but notes his poor striking defense and chin. He thinks Kyle Nelson has power but a bad gas tank, and if the fight goes past the first round, Herbert takes over. He expects a knockout in the first round.

Cody picks Jai Herbert, citing his length, reach advantage, and excellent jab. He notes Nelson has been inactive for two years, moving up in weight, and has poor cardio and takedown defense. Cody thinks Herbert will dictate the outside and jab Nelson's face off. He predicts a first or second round knockout for Herbert.

Daniel Levi picks Jai Herbert, noting that this is a massive step down in competition for Herbert, who has been fighting tough opponents. He believes Herbert has better technique, length, and shot selection. Levi points out that Kyle Nelson is essentially knockout or bust, having only one KO since 2018, and questions Nelson's toughness relative to other UFC fighters.

Herbert is technically better, has a six-inch reach advantage, and should touch Nelson up. However, Herbert has a glass chin and Nelson has power. I think Herbert finishes him in the second or third round. The fight doesn't go to decision is a good parlay piece.

Paul picks Kyle Nelson at +235, calling it a dogger pass. He notes Nelson throws absolute hammers and Herbert's chin is questionable. Paul thinks the fight is high variance and Herbert has been rocked many times. He likes Nelson inside the distance at +350 or by KO at +600.

Angelo picks Ilia Topuria to win by stoppage, citing his well-rounded game and ability to win on the feet or via wrestling. He notes that Jai Herbert has been taken down multiple times by opponents like Moicano and Trinaldo, and expects Topuria to do the same. He plans to bet on an Ilia Topuria wins inside the distance prop.

Big Brady picks Ilia Topuria to win by first-round submission. He notes Topuria is moving up a weight class on short notice and faces a massive size disadvantage, but he believes Topuria's grappling is elite and Jai Herbert has shown horrendous takedown defense and a weak chin. Brady expects Topuria to take the fight to the mat and submit Herbert quickly, as Herbert has little ground game and poor durability.

Cody picks Topuria as a lock, citing his superior grappling and Herbert's weak chin. He thinks Topuria can win by submission or KO, and notes that Herbert has been knocked out by lesser fighters. He calls Topuria the top ticket.

Daniel Levi picks Ilia Topuria, but with reservations. He notes that Topuria has finished all his UFC fights in the first round except against a short-notice opponent, where he gassed. Levi believes Topuria's ground game is a huge advantage, as Herbert has poor wrestling and chin issues. However, he warns against overhyping Topuria, as Herbert has a puncher's chance with his reach and power. Levi expects a finish inside the distance.

Topuria should replicate what Moicano did to Herbert: get the fight to the ground and use superior jiu-jitsu for a finish. Herbert is a good striker but struggles against grapplers with heavy top pressure. 23 of 25 fights for these two haven't gone to decision, and that trend should continue. The fight doesn't go to decision at -350 is a better bet than Topuria straight. I'm picking Topuria via first-round submission.

Paul picks Topuria as a lock, emphasizing Herbert's defensive liabilities and Topuria's all-around game. He notes that Herbert has been knocked out by lesser punchers and that Topuria's grappling is a major threat. He agrees Topuria is the top ticket.

Angelo calls this a razor-thin pick. He notes that Khama has power and a good counter-striking game, while Jai is technical but gets hit a lot (1.3 strikes landed vs 2.66 absorbed). He thinks the odds are wide due to recency bias from Khama's knockout losses. He's not confident and won't bet the round line, but he likes Khama by a hair.

Big Brady picks Herbert as the younger, more talented fighter with height and reach advantages. He notes both fighters have poor striking defense and chins, but believes Worthy's chin is shot after seven knockout losses. He predicts a first-round knockout by Herbert, though acknowledges Worthy's power makes him live.

Cody picks Jai Herbert by knockout, citing Herbert's reach advantage and Worthy's notorious inability to take a punch. He notes that Worthy has been knocked out in seven of his eight losses, often in the first minute. Cody believes Herbert will find his range and land a straight right to knock Worthy out. He expects the fight to end inside one and a half rounds.

Lock picks Herbert based on technical striking. He notes Herbert is the better boxer and should be able to outpoint Worthy. He expects Herbert to finish later in the fight as Worthy fades. He likes Herbert inside the distance.

Paul leans towards Jai Herbert, noting his reach advantage and better cardio. He expects a high-variance fight where someone gets knocked out, and he believes it will be Worthy. However, Paul acknowledges that Herbert's chin is questionable and that he could get knocked out as well. He sees this as a firefight.

Angelo picks Renato Moicano, citing his slick ground game and technical striking. He notes that moving up to lightweight will help Moicano's cardio. He has a bet on under 2.5 rounds and believes Moicano will close the distance and get a takedown. He thinks the fight will not go the distance.

Big Brady picks Renato Moicano to win by first round submission, citing a massive step down in competition for Moicano. He notes Moicano's elite ground game and that Herbert has been knocked out twice, including by Rhys McKee. He thinks Moicano should take the fight to the mat early for a quick sub, but warns about Moicano's chin (three KO losses). He expects Moicano to be levels above Herbert.

Cody picks Moicano, arguing that Herbert is too green and has only a puncher's chance. He notes Moicano's losses are to elite fighters (Korean Zombie, Aldo, Ortega, Fiziev), while Herbert has fought lower-level competition. Moicano's wrestling and takedown defense should be enough to get the fight to the ground, where he has a huge advantage. Cody acknowledges Moicano's chin is a concern but thinks Herbert's lack of experience against top grapplers will be decisive.

Jacob picks Renato Moicano, noting that Moicano's last win was over Damir Hadžović, who Yancy Medeiros is fighting. He thinks Moicano will get takedowns and submit Herbert. However, he is not sure about the 9400 price tag but has Moicano in his lineup.

Moicano should drag the fight to the ground to avoid Herbert's striking. Herbert has nasty striking and dropped Trinaldo, but his takedown defense is terrible. Moicano's jiu-jitsu is levels above Herbert's, and he will find a submission. The under 2.5 rounds is a strong play as both are live for finishes. Moicano's durability issues are a concern, but he should get the job done on the ground.

Paul picks Moicano, but his first bet of the card is under 2.5 rounds. He thinks either Moicano gets a submission or Herbert lands a knockout. He notes Herbert's reach and power but questions his chin and durability. Paul believes Moicano's wrestling and BJJ will be too much if he can get the fight to the ground.

Big Brady picks Herbert as his first underdog of the card, citing Herbert's speed, volume, and youth. He thinks Trinaldo is on the decline and doesn't throw enough. He is concerned about Trinaldo's takedowns but notes Trinaldo rarely uses them. He predicts Herbert wins a decision by outworking Trinaldo.

Daniel leans Trinaldo but acknowledges Herbert's knockout power. He thinks Trinaldo will mix in takedowns and have success on the mat if Herbert can't knock him out. He notes Trinaldo's experience and toughness but also that Herbert's right hand is a real threat. He sees Trinaldo winning a decision.

Herbert is a good striker with movement and kicks, and Trinaldo is 41 and may start to slow down. Herbert can manage distance and avoid Trinaldo's power shots. However, Trinaldo has power and experience, making this a tough fight to cap. Herbert likely wins by decision if he stays safe.