Talita Alencar vs Julia Polastri

Talita Alencar vs. Julia Polastri
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Polastri (-225); Alencar (+190)

Round 1
This nondescript Apex card at the end of April has all the makings of Spring Cleaning, with seven of the 26 combatants tonight sporting UFC records below .500 and several more hovering very close to or right at that midpoint. The latter is the case for this card opener at 115 pounds, as while Alencar (7-1-1, 3-1 UFC) has only lost after four walks to the Octagon, countrywoman Polastri (14-5, 2-2 UFC) sees an even record with the promotion thus far. The two strawweights will tangle as referee Jason Herzog watches on, all smiles with one another as they do not even offer a glove touch.
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Polastri moves straight to the center of the cage and plays it cool, letting the jittery Alencar fly past her with a spinning back fist. Polastri easily swats away a few punches that fly her direction, hoisting a substantial reach advantage. Alencar reaches her with a single jab, and her follow-ups including a kick or two largely fall short. Polastri smacks her back with a low kick. Polastri catches a kick and lets fly a loud response to the midsection. Alencar tries to pitch an off-angled head kick, and Polastri sways to dodge it and blocks one more orthodox kick coming at her. Alencar sits down on a body kick to seemingly target the raised arms of her foe, and she takes a step back when Polastri counters.
Polastri is able to time Alencar coming in and strike back, but she is not landing much on her own right. Alencar sinks in a thumping low kick and watches Polastri dance away from the action, frustrating her to the point of committing to a few power punches. Polastri is a ways away from the danger, picking her shots and probing with her jab. Polastri drives a kick to the body, safe from anything returning, and she nods at Alencar as Alencar bears down on her. “Problem Child” scores a solid right hand, ignoring the comeback to put her hands on the longer woman. Polastri escapes, and she pitches a body kick that is caught and allows Alencar to deposit her to the canvas. Polastri defends when she hits her back with effective upkicks, pushing her fellow Brazilian back away from her numerous times to not allow Alencar get on top. Polastri times an escape, and Alencar spears her to tackle her back down to the mat. Alencar looks to isolate Polastri’s left arm for a potential kimura, and she drops down a few punches as the round elapses.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Polastri

Round 2
Polastri once more moves directly to the center of the cage as the round opens, and she starts out more actively with a few jabs. Alencar thinks about kicking her back, but she is beaten to the punch—foot, actually—when Polastri’s kicks fly faster. Polastri is quick to evade and dodge most of the attacks, with her guard up high to protect against the rest. Polastri jabs Alencar up and forces her to shoot in on her hips, and she laughs it off and is nowhere to be found. Polastri pays her foe back with snappy jabs and calf kicks on the inside and outside of the front leg. Polastri sneaks a kick up high, and she is two feet away from a front kick that Alencar fires back. Alencar commits to another hefty kick, and she hits nothing but air. Polastri scores a solid calf kick, with Alencar reaching down in hopes of catching it. She abandons that effort and strings a few punches together.
Polastri promptly drives her back with a head kick, and she slips punches and drills Alencar with an overhand right. Polastri’s hands are low as she keeps them by her side, offering up shovel uppercuts from her lead hand to mark up Alencar’s nose. Alencar cannot find her range, while Polastri lands any time she tries. “Psycho” goes to the body, and Alencar catches it and trips her up to take the fight horizontal. This time, the upkicks from Polastri do not keep Alencar at bay, as Alencar pounces to assume top position with about a minute to go. Polastri turns to her side, and Alencar elbows her twice in the back of the head as Herzog tells her to not do that. Alencar smothers down in the half guard, with Polastri hanging on tight to ride out the rest of the round. Alencar frames off the face with an elbow, grinding one down on the face and the other on the ribs. Polastri pushes her off with seconds to spare, using her upkicks to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Alencar

Round 3
The countrywomen decide to touch gloves as the last round opens. Polastri’s strategy to assume the middle of the Octagon is ironclad as Alencar allows her to do so every time. Alencar looks for a spinning back fist as she tries to navigate longer jabs, with the jab from the taller, longer woman causing her plenty of issues. Alencar swings wide, and Polastri is practically in another county by the time the punch extends. She does get off a sneaky side kick to the stomach, and Polastri stomps her foot to feint and fake but ends up taking two more punches on the jaw. Alencar considers a level change, but Polastri shoves her back. Polastri fires off a head kick, and as it grazes off the forehead, Alencar flashes a grin from ear to ear.
Polastri makes Alencar adjust her nose when plunking her with a solid one-two, and Alencar feels that it is not broken and fakes a takedown shot. Polastri circles away to avoid any concern, prodding with her jab and walking through a one-two to throw back a kick. Alencar offers up a front kick and then one to the chest, but it is her left hand that gets through. Polastri is able to lean back at times as kicks zoom past her face, moving just enough to not get struck while still remaining in range to counter. She counters. Alencar tries to catch a kick, and Polastri belts her in the face with her fists to force her to drop it. Alencar spins with a big kick, but nothing doing. Her body kick, however, does score. Polastri draws a bit more blood on the beak with a solid punch, and Alencar hears the 10-second clapper and starts brawling. Polastri engages in a brief brawl before time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Polastri (29-28 Polastri)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Alencar (29-28 Alencar)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Alencar (29-28 Alencar)

The Official Result
Talita Alencar def. Julia Polastri via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Talita Alencar

Angelo picks Talita Alencar as the underdog, reasoning that the gap on the ground is very wide and if Alencar can get the fight to the ground, she wins. He acknowledges that Alencar's takedowns are not very good, but notes that Julia Polastri's takedown defense is also poor. He compares the two weaknesses to 'expired milk versus a baby diaper left out in the sun' and chooses the expired milk (Alencar). He mentions Alencar is live for a submission but could get beaten badly if she can't get it to the ground.

"I'm going with the dog. I'm gonna pick the dog. She's obviously live for a sub but if she doesn't get it to the ground she's gonna get the [__] beat out of her."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Julia Polastri

Big Brady picks Julia Polastri over Talita Alencar. He questions Alencar's competition, noting her wins came against fighters with poor takedown defense. He believes Polastri will be tougher to take down and has better cardio and clinch work. He predicts Polastri will break Alencar and finish her in the second or third round.

Polastri wins by third round knockout

"I like Polastri here and I think Polastri's going to break Alencar as the fight goes on. She's going to, you know, mix in those knees. She's going to pressure. And I think she's going to finish Alencar in the …"

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Julia Polastri

Connor picks Polastri as well, citing her ability to rally and finish fights. He notes that Alencar has a solid takedown game but gasses out, while Polastri gets stronger as the fight goes on. Connor also mentions that Polastri is only 28 and should be hitting her prime, making her a good pick.

Polastri opened at -200, now -240; Alencar opened at +170, now +205. Connor thinks the line is a bit wide but understandable.

"i think i'm gonna take pilasterie yeah me too i think it could be a real 50 50 fight alan yark goes out and gets all the takedowns early swamps her in the first round gets an early takedown in …"

MMA Vivisection

Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Hesitant picked Apr 25, 2026 (fight day)

Talita Alencar

The host acknowledges this is a tricky fight due to extreme stylistic advantages: Polastri is a striker with terrible takedown defense and ground game, while Alencar is a grappler with no striking and bad cardio. He says the better bet is Alencar because of the risk-to-reward ratio, but he wouldn't personally bet either pre-fight. He prefers live betting and mentions betting Alencar +3.5 rounds.

Alencar +3.5 rounds; fight likely goes to decision but odds too poor to bet; prefers live betting

"The better bet of the two is Alencar. It's clearly the dog or pass, but that's simply just letting the odds do the work for you."

Diary of a Pro Gambler

Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Julia Polastri

James picks Polastri, expecting her to survive early takedowns and come back with a third-round finish as Alencar gasses. He notes Polastri's history of late finishes and Alencar's cardio issues.

KO in round three

"I'm going to pick Pastry cuz I think she's going to get a third round finish."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Julia Polastri

Polastri is a Muay Thai specialist with good takedown defense and volume striking. She should be able to stick and move, avoid Alencar's grappling, and land significant damage. Alencar's wild striking and shaky gas tank will be exposed as Polastri picks her apart and eventually gets a TKO in the second or third round.

Polastri by round 3 TKO

"give me plaster and plaster by round three TKO"

MMA Lock of the Night

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Julia Polastri

Zane picks Polastri because she is a natural fighter who comes on strong late in fights, while Alencar tends to fade if she can't get a finish. He notes that Polastri has good takedown defense once she gets going and is a vicious slugger. Zane also points out that Alencar's striking is power-based and she struggles when shut down early.

Polastri opened at -200, now -240; Alencar opened at +170, now +205. Zane is surprised the line is so wide.

"i think i'm gonna take pilasterie yeah me too i think it could be a real 50 50 fight alan yark goes out and gets all the takedowns early swamps her in the first round gets an early takedown in …"

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Ariane Carnelossi

Submission R3 4:36 · UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Nov 01, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Talita Alencar	0	60 of 100	60%	79 of 122	5 of 8	62%	2	0	6:10
Ariane Carnelossi	0	25 of 76	32%	50 of 106	0 of 1	0%	0	0	2:19

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Talita Alencar	18 of 30	60%	26 of 38	2 of 4	50%	0	1:51
1	Ariane Carnelossi	1 of 17	5%	24 of 43	0 of 0	---	0	1:39
2	Talita Alencar	20 of 39	51%	23 of 45	2 of 3	66%	1	1:30
2	Ariane Carnelossi	10 of 35	28%	11 of 37	0 of 1	0%	0	0:40
3	Talita Alencar	22 of 31	70%	30 of 39	1 of 1	100%	1	2:49
3	Ariane Carnelossi	14 of 24	58%	15 of 26	0 of 0	---	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Talita Alencar	60 of 100	60%	34 of 67	19 of 23	7 of 10	31 of 65	14 of 15	15 of 20
Ariane Carnelossi	25 of 76	32%	10 of 57	3 of 5	12 of 14	25 of 71	0 of 5	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Talita Alencar	18 of 30	60%	9 of 18	8 of 10	1 of 2	5 of 12	9 of 9	4 of 9
1	Ariane Carnelossi	1 of 17	5%	1 of 17	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 14	0 of 3	0 of 0
2	Talita Alencar	20 of 39	51%	10 of 25	7 of 9	3 of 5	14 of 32	5 of 6	1 of 1
2	Ariane Carnelossi	10 of 35	28%	2 of 24	2 of 4	6 of 7	10 of 33	0 of 2	0 of 0
3	Talita Alencar	22 of 31	70%	15 of 24	4 of 4	3 of 3	12 of 21	0 of 0	10 of 10
3	Ariane Carnelossi	14 of 24	58%	7 of 16	1 of 1	6 of 7	14 of 24	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Talita Alencar vs. Ariane Carnelossi
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alencar (-250); Carnelossi (+210)

Round 1
After a rousing series of fight cards around the world, the UFC recedes back to the Apex for half of its remaining shows this year. The first of two weekends in a row, the promotion’s headquarters—reportedly with new, revamped internal facilities even including concession stands (that are not open yet)—will play host to UFC Fight Night 263, also known as UFC Vegas 110. For the sixth time in the last eight events, women will kick off the violent festivities. Strawweights take center stage, where a loss will almost certainly save their place on the roster while a defeat does not guarantee another match in the Octagon. Alencar (6-1-1, 2-1 UFC) has reached the final bout of her initial four-fight deal, so this one will matter more than the others. She battles the returning Carnelossi (15-3, 3-2 UFC), who has only competed once in the last three years. The two will be joined in the cage by referee Mark Smith, who clocks them in as they bump fists.
Carnelossi comes out of her corner loaded for bear, and she bashes Alencar in the face right off the bat. Alencar bounces back, rebounds off the fencing and pushes out with kicks. She rushes forward behind a right hand to set up a clinch with a body lock takedown attempt, and Carnelossi muscles her around to break it up. Carnelossi scores a short strike on the break, and then walks her retreating countrywoman down. “Sorriso” has her guard up in time to block the single kicks soaring her direction, although a one-two down the pipe gets her attention. Carnelossi goes for her own level change, ultimately hitting a 115-pound wall plus the cage behind her in Alencar. Carnelossi grinds on Alencar when a single-leg effort fails, and she smacks Alencar with short but frustrating overhand rights.
Carnelossi staves off a counter trip attempt, and the two jockey for position twirled around in the tie-up. Alencar puts Carnelossi’s back to the fencing, and she knees her in the stomach when bending over for something. Carnelossi turns her about once more and gives her a few knees to think about on the other side of the equation. This continues, and Alencar is warned for grabbing the fence to keep Carnelossi stuck and has her hand slapped away a few times. Alencar ducks down in pursuit of a single-leg takedown, and she gets it for a second or two before Carnelossi pops back to her feet without issue. Carnelossi punches her way out of the clinch and meanders forwards Alencar, swinging her way until they end up clinching once more. Alencar trips Carnelossi to the floor, and Carnelossi uses her upkicks when hitting the mat to keep Alencar from climbing on top of her. Alencar drops to her knees, and Smith warns Carnelossi for what would be illegal upkicks. The horn sounds with Alencar striking from above.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Alencar

Round 2
Like the previous round, Carnelossi plods directly forward to engage, no glove touch in the works. Carnelossi walks through a body kick to put her hands on her opponent, and a right hand opens a tiny cut on the bridge of Alencar’s nose. Alencar swings, and Carnelossi counters her more effectively. Alencar’s front kick is an effective weapon at keeping her foe at bay, but only for a brief time as Carnelossi tends to charge when struck with that blow. She does just that when drilled with a kick down the middle, racing after Alencar and slugging her in the face. Carnelossi ducks down and nearly takes a knee on the chin, and they proceed to bang it out up close and personally. Alencar spins with a back kick when in close proximity, and Carnelossi’s pressure is getting to her as she cannot get space to recover. Carnelossi connects with a hefty low kick that makes Alencar recoil it awkwardly, and she keeps kicking that spot.
Alencar winds up with a huge right hand while taking shots, and she grabs the back of Carnelossi’s head and drives a knee square into it. Alencar hurls Carnelossi to the floor, and she prevents Carnelossi from standing by snapping down on the back of her neck. Carnelossi still manages to force her way upright, and she remains comfortable in the clinch getting her head right after getting stunned. Carnelossi tries to drag the fight to the floor, and Alencar turns the tables and puts her down on the mat. When Carnelossi looks to get up, Alencar hangs on to a kimura that she uses to attempt to sweep. When not looking for that, she elbows Carnelossi in the side of the dome again and again. Carnelossi drops all the way down to pursue a desperate takedown, and Alencar accepts it as she has her legs laced around Carnelossi’s and looks to take her back. Alencar gets the hooks in and wraps up a rear-naked choke, fastening the short choke under the chin and pulling back. Carnelossi rolls to her side and then stomach, surviving the deep submission and likely being saved by the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Alencar

Round 3
Carnelossi appears good to go to start the round despite nearly going out in the end of the previous frame, and she asserts pressure. Carnelossi kicks low to open up a right hand, and she ignores a body kick to hunt “Problem Child” down. Alencar sticks out a right hand, and Carnelossi swarms her with a combination counter. Alencar snaps out a left, but her blows are largely one-and-done while Carnelossi’s volume is giving her fits. Alencar puts three punches together to decent effect, and she fakes a level change after it to get Carnelossi to bite. They trade low kicks, and Carnelossi checks the latter and gives her another one back. As Carnelossi fearlessly walks Alencar down kicking her in the midsection, Alencar snatches the limb out of the air and trips Carnelossi to the floor. Carnelossi prevents Alencar from getting into her guard by pitching upkicks aplenty, and she even threatens briefly with an omoplata shoulder lock setup that ultimately puts her in a worse position than when she started.
Alencar lowers herself down into the side control position, where she slips right to north-south position with Carnelossi scrambling all the while. Carnelossi counters with her own single-leg shot, and Alencar steps over her and sets up an inverted triangle choke. Alencar hammers the side with elbows until Carnelossi explodes to get to her knees and push through the takedown try. Alencar shuts her down and elbows her in the side of the head until pulling guard and getting Carnelossi’s back.
With a minute left in the round, Alencar gets the body triangle secure, and she starts fishing for chokes. Alencar slides her right forearm beneath the chin, and she goes palm-to-palm but it is not crushingly tight. Alencar adjusts her grip, torqueing the choke as hard as she can, and Carnelossi lifts her arm up and dramatically taps out.
This marks the first time that “Sorriso” has been submitted since her pro debut in 2014 against Amanda Ribas. The victorious Alencar puts behind her a five-fight decision or draw stretch, and all of her stoppages remain by RNC.

The Official Result
Talita Alencar def. Ariane Carnelossi R3 4:36 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Talita Alencar

Angelo picks Talita Alencar, highlighting her grappling prowess and recent win over Vanessa Demopoulos. He notes Ariane Carnelossi is physically strong but lacks takedown defense and skills. He expects Alencar to get takedowns and control the fight, though he is unsure about spending $9,000 on her in DFS.

"Ariane Carnelossi is going to lose this fight. I don't know if I'm going to spend nine grand on Talita Alencar though."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Talita Alencar

Big Brady picks Talita Alencar due to Ariane Carnelossi's terrible takedown defense (14%). He notes Alencar is not the best wrestler but attempts many takedowns and is good on top with solid ground and pound. He also mentions Alencar is a six-time BJJ world champion. The only concern is Alencar's cardio, but he believes Carnelossi will struggle. He predicts a second-round submission.

second round submission

"I like Allen Carr. Give me Allen Carr to get takedowns and potentially get a submission. I'll say second round submission for Toita Allen Carr."

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Talita Alencar

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Carnelossi is very strong but stiff and awkward everywhere. He thinks Alencar's jiu-jitsu will allow her to drag Carnelossi down and control her on the ground, even if her wrestling isn't elite.

Alencar opened at -500, now -230; Carnelossi opened at +385, now +195.

"I agree that carnalossi is just very strong but also very stiff and awkward everywhere it seems."

MMA Vivisection

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Talita Alencar

Lucrative James picks Talita Alencar, citing her superior wrestling and grappling against Ariane Carnelossi, who has poor takedown defense (14%). He believes Alencar will take Carnelossi down at will and control the fight on the ground. He notes Carnelossi's power and toughness but thinks the skill gap is too large, predicting a decision win for Alencar.

Talita Alencar wins by decision

"I got Toita Alan Carr in this one."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Ariane Carnelossi

Carnelossi's strength and BJJ black belt should help her stay safe against Alencar, and she will eventually butcher Alencar on the feet to win by TKO. The host is surprised the odds are as wide as they are, implying value on Carnelossi.

surprised by the odds

"Kind of surprised the odds are as wide as they are, but I believe Carnalosi's strength and BJJ Black belt can help her stay safe here against Alan Carr and then eventually butcher Alan Carr on the feet to win …"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Ariane Carnelossi

The MMA Guru picks Ariane Carnelossi despite Talita Alencar being the favorite. He worries that Alencar's grappling may not be enough to get takedowns consistently, and Carnelossi's physicality and strength could neutralize Alencar's shots. He believes Carnelossi will win on damage if the fight stays standing, predicting an upset decision.

"I'm going to go with Ariane Carnelossi. The shoulders are a dead giveaway and when I'm not sure, I'm going to go with this."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Talita Alencar

Zane picks Alencar because she is a solid jiu-jitsu fighter with good top control, while Carnelossi is stiff, head-hunts, and is easy to take down. He notes that Alencar's wrestling is clumsy but she finds ways to get to good positions. Carnelossi tends to stay on her back when put there.

Alencar opened at -500, now -230; Carnelossi opened at +385, now +195.

"I'm just gonna take alan car. Carnalossi is strong but stands really stiff, head hunts like crazy, so she's really easy to take off of her feet."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Vanessa Demopoulos

Decision (unanimous) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Emmett vs. Murphy · Apr 05, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Vanessa Demopoulos	0	10 of 34	29%	34 of 63	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:02
Talita Alencar	0	45 of 75	60%	107 of 150	4 of 5	80%	1	0	12:38

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Vanessa Demopoulos	4 of 7	57%	7 of 10	0 of 0	---	0	0:02
1	Talita Alencar	9 of 17	52%	19 of 31	1 of 1	100%	1	4:25
2	Vanessa Demopoulos	6 of 20	30%	19 of 33	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Talita Alencar	11 of 24	45%	40 of 55	1 of 1	100%	0	3:43
3	Vanessa Demopoulos	0 of 7	0%	8 of 20	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
3	Talita Alencar	25 of 34	73%	48 of 64	2 of 3	66%	0	4:30

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Vanessa Demopoulos	10 of 34	29%	9 of 31	1 of 3	0 of 0	9 of 33	0 of 0	1 of 1
Talita Alencar	45 of 75	60%	39 of 67	4 of 4	2 of 4	13 of 39	1 of 1	31 of 35

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Vanessa Demopoulos	4 of 7	57%	4 of 7	0 of 0	0 of 0	4 of 7	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Talita Alencar	9 of 17	52%	7 of 15	1 of 1	1 of 1	3 of 11	1 of 1	5 of 5
2	Vanessa Demopoulos	6 of 20	30%	5 of 17	1 of 3	0 of 0	5 of 19	0 of 0	1 of 1
2	Talita Alencar	11 of 24	45%	7 of 18	3 of 3	1 of 3	8 of 21	0 of 0	3 of 3
3	Vanessa Demopoulos	0 of 7	0%	0 of 7	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 7	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Talita Alencar	25 of 34	73%	25 of 34	0 of 0	0 of 0	2 of 7	0 of 0	23 of 27

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Talita Alencar vs. Vanessa Demopoulos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alencar (-112), Demopoulos (-108)

Round 1
This 11-week marathon of consecutive UFC cards soldiers on with the penultimate show on the stretch. We scoot back to the confines of the UFC Apex for better EBITDA margins, in a building that was supposed to starting renovations or construction soon. For now, it plays host to 12 fights ranging from 115 pounds to 266, but few matches on the lineup have any rankings relevance while there is likely to be ample pink slip fodder. The ladies in this curtain jerker might be safe if they lose this one, but with the promotion preparing for the summer season of Contender Series, few on the roster are safe. The two that kick this event off might be similar in age but they are a chasm apart in terms of experience. Demopoulos (11-6, 5-3 UFC) celebrates almost three times the appearances of Alencar (5-1-1, 1-1 UFC) despite the Brazilian just two years younger. Referee Chris Tognoni takes charge for the opening bout, and it kicks off without a glove touch. Demopoulos says hello with two punches across the forward bow, and she snaps out another such combo and reaches Alencar with one more left hand before the Brazilian can get to her. Alencar ties her foe up against the cage, and she drops down and wraps up a head lock to force “Lil Monster” to her knees. Alencar uses her left arm to pressure behind Demopoulos’s neck, and she is warned for grabbing the fence when imposing her weight on her opponent. Demopoulos uses her toes to try to pull her out of danger, which too is a foul. Alencar keeps to this position, content to control rather than actually committing to the unorthodox submission. Alencar releases the grip around the neck and pushes Demopoulos’ legs out of the way to establish a more traditional top position. Demopoulos uses her legs to threaten and otherwise keep Alencar honest, allowing Alencar to punch her in the face repeatedly. Demopoulos hunts for a sweep and only bails on it when absorbing a particularly effective elbow. Alencar keeps her full weight down, jumping from one side to the other and winding up in a sudden armbar. The Brazilian punches out of it from above, and she grabs the foot of Demopoulos for a possible foot or ankle lock. Alencar sits on Demopoulos’ face as she hangs on, staying heavy until the round wraps.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alencar

Round 2
Demopoulos starts the round as aggressive as the first, firing off two one-two salvos and a right hand before she is met by her opponent. Alencar gets up close and personal, changing levels for a possible takedown, but abandons it and lets her hands go to smack Demopoulos upside the head. Demopoulos comes up short on a winging overhand right, and she wades back to let Alencar do something similar. Alencar tosses out naked leg kicks to keep Demopoulos away, and she sits down on a clean right hand but does not budge Demopoulos one inch. The moment “Lil Monster” drives through a one-two, Alencar counters her momentum to hit a double-leg takedown and plop her on her back. Alencar lands in half guard, using her shoulder pressure to flatten out Demopoulos as soon as they get horizontal. Alencar is quick to engage her smothering best, stifling Demopoulos and getting warned for striking the spine when she does attack again. “Problem Child” gives Demopoulos another problem by stepping to the other side so she can set up an arm-triangle choke. Demopoulos bucks and kicks enough to gain the space she needs to not get choked out, and this only results in her getting struck with more ground-and-pound. Alencar finds a brief opening and hammers down four right hands, and she sits back on Demopoulos’ face in a relatively unusual position. Demopoulos sells out for a leglock in hopes of reversing the position, and Alencar gets out of it by repeatedly grabbing the fence. Tognoni slaps her hand several times, and Alencar still is able to yank on it to get her leg out of the sub. Rules mean nothing with no consequences, and multiple fence grabs keeping her out of a submission go generally uncalled other than a “knock it off” from Tognoni. Alencar rides out the position on top until time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alencar

Round 3
Demopoulos marches out of her corner a woman possessed, and she lashes out with multiple one-twos down the pipe. Alencar rushes towards her as well, perhaps for a takedown, and she clashes heads before changing levels. Tognoni checks to make sure neither woman sustained damage, and on the restart, Alencar tackles Demopoulos to the mat and the collective air out of the Apex as well. Alencar hangs out in guard, unafraid of anything the Factory X fighter will do to her, and she pops Demopoulos with some short, scoring strikes. Demopoulos hunts for a triangle choke, armbar or even possibly a desperate leglock, and the Brazilian laughs them all off and steps the proper direction to avoid them completely while remaining in top. Alencar shifts to half guard from the opposite side as she wants to set up an armbar, and she drops down ground-and-pound when not isolating the neck. When the sub is not there, Alencar sits up into three-quarter mount, and she attacks with strikes from above. With nothing left to lose, Demopoulos explodes to sit up and even stand. Unfortunately for her, the “Problem Child” is a problem for her, as she executes a near-immediate mat return to sling Demopoulos to her back. Alencar lords over her, dropping down standing-to-ground punches while avoiding upkicks. Alencar picks up the pace with more punches than before, and she climbs into half guard and elbows until the fight ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar (30-27 Alencar)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Alencar (30-26 Alencar)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alencar (30-27 Alencar)

The Official Result
Talita Alencar def. Vanessa Demopoulos via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Vanessa Demopoulos

Angelo argues that Vanessa is the more complete fighter with solid striking, footwork, and decent grappling, while Talita Alencar is an accomplished grappler but ineffective on the feet, small, and powerless. He notes that Talita's takedowns are not great and she relies on strength, and that even if she gets it to the ground, she hasn't shown the killer instinct expected. Angelo believes Vanessa can win via striking and takedown defense, and he dismisses any bias from his past interaction with Vanessa.

"This should be a Vanessa pick all day long she's the more complete fighter of the two to has proven to be pretty useless on the feet she's small she's ineffective she is powerless and even if she gets it …"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Vanessa Demopoulos

Big Brady picks Vanessa Demopoulos despite acknowledging she has questionable wins and poor takedown defense. He believes Talita Alencar's cardio is a major issue, as she slowed down significantly in her Contender Series fight. He expects Demopoulos to survive early grappling and take over in later rounds, finishing a gassed Alencar via ground and pound.

third round ground and pound TKO

"I'm going Vanessa deop here I'm going to take her to win by by third round ground and pound TKO"

DFS by the Numbers

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Talita Alencar

Alencar's BJJ wizardry will come into play, allowing her to land takedowns and eventually find a submission. The fight could be close but Alencar's grappling advantage is expected to secure the win.

submission

"I think the BJJ Wizardry of Alan car will come into play allowing her to land takedowns and eventually find the submission to get demopoulos out of there."

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Vanessa Demopoulos

The Guru picks Vanessa Demopoulos based on her physicality, scrappiness, and experience. He dismisses Talita Alencar as not UFC-caliber, noting her claim to fame was against someone who got fraud-checked. He admits there's no technical aspect to analyze, just that Demopoulos is larger and more physical.

"Vanessa Demopulus is probably going to win 2928. She's more physical. She's scrappy. She's got experience. She's larger."

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Stephanie Luciano

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Aug 10, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Stephanie Luciano	1	72 of 175	41%	87 of 190	0 of 0	---	0	0	1:10
Talita Alencar	0	41 of 151	27%	45 of 159	1 of 10	10%	0	0	0:38

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Stephanie Luciano	0	26 of 67	38%	27 of 68	0 of 0	---	0:04
1	Talita Alencar	0	17 of 55	30%	17 of 55	0 of 0	---	0:04
2	Stephanie Luciano	0	24 of 54	44%	31 of 61	0 of 0	---	0:24
2	Talita Alencar	0	9 of 41	21%	9 of 42	1 of 8	12%	0:21
3	Stephanie Luciano	1	22 of 54	40%	29 of 61	0 of 0	---	0:42
3	Talita Alencar	0	15 of 55	27%	19 of 62	0 of 2	0%	0:13

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Stephanie Luciano	72 of 175	41%	49 of 139	14 of 22	9 of 14	66 of 167	5 of 7	1 of 1
Talita Alencar	41 of 151	27%	20 of 100	16 of 44	5 of 7	36 of 141	5 of 9	0 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Stephanie Luciano	26 of 67	38%	18 of 52	5 of 10	3 of 5	26 of 67	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Talita Alencar	17 of 55	30%	12 of 47	3 of 6	2 of 2	17 of 55	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Stephanie Luciano	24 of 54	44%	15 of 42	5 of 7	4 of 5	21 of 51	3 of 3	0 of 0
2	Talita Alencar	9 of 41	21%	4 of 28	4 of 11	1 of 2	8 of 37	1 of 3	0 of 1
3	Stephanie Luciano	22 of 54	40%	16 of 45	4 of 5	2 of 4	19 of 49	2 of 4	1 of 1
3	Talita Alencar	15 of 55	27%	4 of 25	9 of 27	2 of 3	11 of 49	4 of 6	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Talita Alencar vs. Stephanie Luciano
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Luciano (-185), Alencar (+154)

Round 1
A women’s strawweight rematch kicks off the streamlined undercard, as Alencar (5-0-1, 1-0 UFC) takes on Luciano (5-1-1, 0-0 UFC) for the second time in less than a year. The 115-pound hopefuls fought to a draw on Dana White’s Contender Series in September. Luciano was awarded a UFC contract for her efforts and Alencar received a traditional call-up for her Octagon debut, as she eked out a split decision over Rayanne dos Santos at UFC Fight Night 233 on Dec. 9. Jerin Valel draws the assignment as the referee. A glove touch gets us underway. Luciano takes the center and eats a head kick right out of the gate. Fortunately for her, there was not much oomph behind it. Alencar fires a leg kick, circles out into open space and steers clear of her opponent’s punches. Luciano tries and fails to corner Alencar, who continues to circle effectively. Luciano now using her seven-inch reach advantage to get her jab and one-twos in gear. She probes to the body, then misfires on an overhand right. Luciano sneaks in a left hook, then gets back to the jab. Midway through the first round, and neither woman has established too much of an advantage. Alencar mixes in a body-head combination, then fakes a takedown. Luciano jabs and manages to dodge the return fire. Ninety seconds to go. Luciano jabs, feints a kick and scores with a pawing right hook. Alencar swings wildly with both hands and misses. They clinch, and Luciano shoots a few knees to the body, then punches on the break. A flying knee from Luciano lands to the body. Jumping switch kick from Luciano gets blocked, but a knee that follows bloodies Alencar’s nose.
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Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Luciano
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Luciano
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Luciano

Round 2
Luciano immediately gets back to the jab. Alencar ducks in for a takedown but fails to corral her counterpart, and Luciano escapes to a standing position. Luciano separates and unleashes more jabs. A spinning backfist from Alencar gets blocked. Both women tend to telegraph their strikes. Luciano sprawls on attempted takedown, takes top position briefly and disengages. More jabs score. Not going well for Alencar thus far. Leg kick from Luciano, then a chopping right hand followed by a left hook. Alencar eats a head kick without issue. Luciano blocks one in return, then connects again upstairs. Alencar now reaching on her punches, as she continues to struggle to find the mark. A minute to go, and Luciano is in charge. Side kick from Luciano grazes Alencar’s midsection. She shoots in response, only to get shut down along the fence. Luciano separates and hammers home a body kick. Alencar fires back but generally with single shots. Luciano whiffs on a spinning backfist and denies a takedown as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Luciano
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Luciano
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Luciano

Round 3
Luciano smiles at her adversary at the start of Round 3, and she has every reason to do so. They trade leg kicks. Alencar looks to pressure, but Luciano calmly circles away. Right cross-left hook combination from Luciano. She counters an Alencar leg kick with multiple punches. To no one’s surprise, Alencar needs this fight on the mat to have a real chance. Luciano denies a takedown, blocks a head kick and connects with a clean one-two. She backs Alencar to the fence with punches, engages her in the clinch and uses her height and leverage to her advantage. They separate midway through the round. Luciano drops her fellow Brazilian with a jumping knee. Alencar resorts to the butt scoot while she clears her head. Back on her feet now. Luciano looks to jab, throws a right hand over the top and engages Alencar in the clinch with double underhooks. They separate. Time running out on Alencar. Luciano leaving her feet to throw kicks and knees more and more as her comfort level increases. She lands a close-range elbow and a left hook. Alencar tries to answer. No luck. Luciano coasts to the finish line.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Luciano (30-27 Luciano)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Luciano (30-27 Luciano)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Luciano (30-27 Luciano)

The Official Result
Stephanie Luciano def. Talita Alencar—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Stephanie Luciano

Angelo picks Luciano because she showed toughness and cardio in the first fight, biting down on her mouthpiece and coming forward while Alencar gassed. He notes that Alencar went 4 for 24 on takedowns and without takedowns she cannot win. However, he acknowledges it's a tricky rematch and Alencar could win if she gets her wrestling going.

"luchano is the pick"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Stephanie Luciano

Cody agrees, highlighting Luciano's grappling defense and striking advantage. He notes Alencar's striking is stiff and she mostly holds opponents down. Cody expects Luciano to stuff takedowns and win a decision or late TKO.

"I agree with Luciano it seems like this is kind of her style is that her takedown defense is not necessarily great but her grappling defense is pretty solid"

Bookie Beatdown

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)

Stephanie Luciano

Luciano is the better striker and should have a decided advantage if she keeps the fight standing. However, her takedown defense and fight IQ are concerns, and Alencar could make it close if she completes takedowns. Luciano's youth and damage output lead to a decision win, but confidence is low due to ring rust and Alencar's BJJ threat.

Luciano by decision

"I still believe Luciano will end up getting the better of those exchanges getting the better of the Striking Landing more damage and winning this fight on the scorecards not a whole lot of confidence here"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Stephanie Luciano

Paul picks Luciano, noting her youth, volume, and ability to survive on the ground. He thinks she can keep the fight standing more this time and win by decision or late TKO. He mentions her dengue fever layoff but believes she should be improved.

"I think it minus F 15 um she's probably Fair PR or she's probably a fair favorite to uh to be betting this week"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Stephanie Luciano

The MMA Guru picks Stephanie Luciano based on her size advantage and ability to stuff takedowns. He notes that in their first fight on the Contender Series, Talita Alencar had control time but couldn't finish, and Luciano won the third round decisively. He believes Luciano's defensive jiu-jitsu and striking will carry her to victory in the rematch.

"I'm going to go with Stephanie Luciano lad because she's a bit bigger than her lad and she Stu the takedowns"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Rayanne dos Santos

Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Dec 09, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Talita Alencar	0	57 of 130	43%	80 of 156	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:14
Rayanne dos Santos	0	36 of 157	22%	48 of 176	1 of 9	11%	0	0	2:44

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Talita Alencar	34 of 64	53%	34 of 64	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Rayanne dos Santos	11 of 63	17%	13 of 66	0 of 3	0%	0:24
2	Talita Alencar	10 of 22	45%	32 of 47	0 of 0	---	0:14
2	Rayanne dos Santos	16 of 44	36%	25 of 58	1 of 1	100%	2:11
3	Talita Alencar	13 of 44	29%	14 of 45	0 of 1	0%	0:00
3	Rayanne dos Santos	9 of 50	18%	10 of 52	0 of 5	0%	0:09

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Talita Alencar	57 of 130	43%	41 of 104	11 of 17	5 of 9	45 of 117	11 of 12	1 of 1
Rayanne dos Santos	36 of 157	22%	21 of 125	12 of 25	3 of 7	21 of 133	8 of 12	7 of 12

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Talita Alencar	34 of 64	53%	28 of 56	4 of 5	2 of 3	27 of 57	7 of 7	0 of 0
1	Rayanne dos Santos	11 of 63	17%	5 of 49	5 of 12	1 of 2	9 of 59	2 of 4	0 of 0
2	Talita Alencar	10 of 22	45%	4 of 13	4 of 5	2 of 4	7 of 19	2 of 2	1 of 1
2	Rayanne dos Santos	16 of 44	36%	8 of 30	6 of 11	2 of 3	4 of 25	5 of 7	7 of 12
3	Talita Alencar	13 of 44	29%	9 of 35	3 of 7	1 of 2	11 of 41	2 of 3	0 of 0
3	Rayanne dos Santos	9 of 50	18%	8 of 46	1 of 2	0 of 2	8 of 49	1 of 1	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Talita Alencar vs. Rayanne Amanda dos Santos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dos Santos (-148), Alencar (+124)

Round 1
The penultimate UFC card of 2023 is upon us, and it is certainly an event.
Road to UFC 2 Finals
UFC Shanghai
UFC Vegas 83 will bring a small crop of Asian prospects to the forefront, but it will start with two Brazilian ladies going head-to-head at 115 pounds. Invicta FC atomweight champ Amanda (14-6, 0-0 UFC) will be moving up in weight for her promotional debut, while Alencar (4-0-1, 0-0 UFC) was signed off of Dana White’s Contender Series—from a draw. High finish rates from the ladies mean that referee Keith Peterson might have to get involved before it is all said and done, but before they get after it, the strawweight leave their nonsense at the door and wade towards one another without a glove touch in sight. Alencar sticks out a front kick to introduce herself, and Amanda backs off and flicks out a jab. Amanda springs to the side and gets kicked upside the head, and Alencar crashes the pocket and looks for a takedown. When Amanda pushes her off, Alencar looks for a left hand on the break. Alencar reaches out with an overhand right, and she just misses with a subsequent high kick. The ladies slam fists in one another’s faces at the same time, and Alencar wobbles back but gathers her senses and looks to settle down with jabs and head kick attempts. Alencar misses the mark with an overhand right, and Amanda answers her with a solid right that knocks her foe back. Amanda pushes off with a one-two, and as she overcommits to a strike, Alencar closes in on her and snatches hold of a single-leg takedown. Amanda backs herself up against the fence, keeping her balance, and she leans back against the wall. When she pushes off, she takes a right hand on the chin. Amanda comes out firing, and Alencar responds in kind as they crack one another in the chops. Amanda wings a left hand high to open up a straight right hand down the middle, and Alencar takes a few steps back and gets driven towards the cage wall. Amanda rings her bell with a one-two, and she goes low with a kick to mix things up. Amanda strings several punches together, and she ends a combination with a right hand right on the ear. The two slow down to not burn out their gas tanks early, and Amanda settles down with a few jabs. Alencar attempts a takedown in open cage, and Amanda shoves her back and starts lighting her up with body shots and those up high. Right as the bell sounds, Amanda leaps in the air, and she bounces of Alencar’s forehead—it is a legal blow, technically, so nothing else comes of it.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Amanda
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Amanda
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Amanda

Round 2
The ladies meet in the middle, and Alencar reintroduces herself with a winging right hand that bounces off the guard, and a head kick try that makes her topple over. Amanda backs off, as if to signal her foe to stand back up, but Alencar butt-scoots towards her. Amanda motions for her to stand up, and Peterson gets between them to make it so. When upright, Alencar throws hard but cannot find her range with her strikes. Amanda prods at her with a low kick, and she leans back from a pair of high kicks that buzz past her. Amanda calmly works her way in, peppering with the occasional kick, and shutting down much of anything coming back her way. When Alencar attempts a head kick, Amanda dips and smacks her in the lead leg. Both women paw out front kicks several feet away from the other, and Alencar struggles to get in. Alencar aims one kick low as Amanda springs from side to side, and the former Invicta champ ducks a pair of punches and nails Alencar with a right hand. Alencar crowds her and jams her up against the fence, and she spams knees to the body to stay busy. With both underhooks, Alencar muscles Amanda to the mat courtesy of a body lock takedown. Alencar lands on top in half guard, and she looks for side control while also attempting an armlock on the other side. Amanda defends against the submission while pushing the shorter woman off of her, and she connects with a few on the chest to keep Alencar at bay. Alencar lowers herself down to deliver some powerful strikes, and she stings Amanda with one right before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Alencar

Round 3
Alencar takes to the center of the cage to start the final frame, and she leads the dance with a one-two as Amanda ducks to the side. Amanda looks for her own short combination, and she ends up countering Alencar with a short right when Alencar attacks. Alencar kicks the body and reaches out with a left hand, and Amanda’s own offense is relatively muted. Amanda looks to strike when Alencar ducks down for a takedown, and she pushes Alencar to the side and whiffs on a haymaker when she breaks away. Alencar tosses out three punches that bounce off the raised guard, and Amanda gets one back on the temple. This same type of exchange repeats itself, with Alencar not landing while Amanda gets one in. Amanda swings for the fences, and Alencar is well out of harm’s way in time. Alencar, not wanting to get hit by one of those booming shots, shoots for a single. Amanda stuffs it and sprints to the side to reset. Alencar meanders forward, attempting kicks and punches, and Amanda calmly responds with a single damaging leg kick. Amanda doubles up on a jab as Alencar walks her down, and she hops back to avoid a head kick and comes up short with an overhand right. Both women get off right hands during a brief exchange, and Amanda separates and connects with a low kick. Alencar attempts a single, and Amanda stuffs her and busts her in the chops with a right hand. Amanda is swinging with everything she has, and she catches Alencar at the end of a right. Amanda smiles with 10 seconds left on the clock, as she draws Alencar into a brawl. This works to her advantage, as she rings Alencar up with a few strikes before Alencar tries to clinch up. This position ends the fight, and Amanda, all smiles, looks for a hug from her now former opponent.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Amanda (29-28 Amanda)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Amanda (29-28 Amanda)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Amanda (29-28 Amanda)

The Official Result
Talita Alencar def. Rayanne Amanda dos Santos via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Rayanne dos Santos

Cody picks Rayanne dos Santos. He notes that she is a natural atomweight moving up, but she has speed and better striking. Cody points out that Alencar is a BJJ specialist with poor cardio and limited MMA experience. He thinks dos Santos can keep the fight standing and outpoint Alencar. Cody also mentions that dos Santos has good takedown defense and cardio from five-round fights.

"I got to take the slight favorite"

Bookie Beatdown

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Rayanne dos Santos

Paul picks Rayanne dos Santos. He notes that she has a well-rounded skill set and better striking. Paul points out that Alencar is one-dimensional and gassed in her Contender Series fight. He thinks dos Santos's reach and striking advantage will be key. Paul is not forcing an underdog pick here and goes with the favorite.

"it's rayon Amanda the favorite minus 160 for me"

Bookie Beatdown

Julia Polastri - Fight History

LOSS vs Talita Alencar

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · Apr 25, 2026

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Talita Alencar	0	60 of 195	30%	80 of 216	3 of 5	60%	0	0	2:27
Julia Polastri	0	78 of 111	70%	87 of 125	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:04

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Talita Alencar	12 of 49	24%	16 of 53	2 of 2	100%	1:00
1	Julia Polastri	21 of 26	80%	27 of 34	0 of 0	---	0:04
2	Talita Alencar	20 of 65	30%	36 of 82	1 of 3	33%	1:27
2	Julia Polastri	27 of 40	67%	30 of 46	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Talita Alencar	28 of 81	34%	28 of 81	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Julia Polastri	30 of 45	66%	30 of 45	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Talita Alencar	60 of 195	30%	34 of 151	19 of 35	7 of 9	54 of 188	1 of 1	5 of 6
Julia Polastri	78 of 111	70%	48 of 78	12 of 14	18 of 19	72 of 103	6 of 8	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Talita Alencar	12 of 49	24%	3 of 35	4 of 8	5 of 6	9 of 45	0 of 0	3 of 4
1	Julia Polastri	21 of 26	80%	8 of 11	5 of 6	8 of 9	17 of 20	4 of 6	0 of 0
2	Talita Alencar	20 of 65	30%	14 of 56	6 of 9	0 of 0	17 of 62	1 of 1	2 of 2
2	Julia Polastri	27 of 40	67%	18 of 31	5 of 5	4 of 4	27 of 40	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Talita Alencar	28 of 81	34%	17 of 60	9 of 18	2 of 3	28 of 81	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Julia Polastri	30 of 45	66%	22 of 36	2 of 3	6 of 6	28 of 43	2 of 2	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Talita Alencar

"I'm going with the dog. I'm gonna pick the dog. She's obviously live for a sub but if she doesn't get it to the ground she's gonna get the [__] beat out of her."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Julia Polastri

Polastri wins by third round knockout

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Julia Polastri

Polastri opened at -200, now -240; Alencar opened at +170, now +205. Connor thinks the line is a bit wide but understandable.

"i think i'm gonna take pilasterie yeah me too i think it could be a real 50 50 fight alan yark goes out and gets all the takedowns early swamps her in the first round gets an early takedown in …"

MMA Vivisection

Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Hesitant picked Apr 25, 2026 (fight day)

Talita Alencar

Alencar +3.5 rounds; fight likely goes to decision but odds too poor to bet; prefers live betting

"The better bet of the two is Alencar. It's clearly the dog or pass, but that's simply just letting the odds do the work for you."

Diary of a Pro Gambler

Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Julia Polastri

James picks Polastri, expecting her to survive early takedowns and come back with a third-round finish as Alencar gasses. He notes Polastri's history of late finishes and Alencar's cardio issues.

KO in round three

"I'm going to pick Pastry cuz I think she's going to get a third round finish."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Julia Polastri

Polastri by round 3 TKO

"give me plaster and plaster by round three TKO"

MMA Lock of the Night

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Julia Polastri

Polastri opened at -200, now -240; Alencar opened at +170, now +205. Zane is surprised the line is so wide.

"i think i'm gonna take pilasterie yeah me too i think it could be a real 50 50 fight alan yark goes out and gets all the takedowns early swamps her in the first round gets an early takedown in …"

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz

KO R3 2:56 · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Julia Polastri	0	137 of 253	54%	142 of 261	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:46
Karolina Kowalkiewicz	0	72 of 192	37%	75 of 196	1 of 4	25%	0	0	0:31

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Julia Polastri	53 of 93	56%	58 of 101	0 of 0	---	0:46
1	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	22 of 61	36%	25 of 64	0 of 3	0%	0:00
2	Julia Polastri	46 of 96	47%	46 of 96	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	30 of 68	44%	30 of 69	1 of 1	100%	0:31
3	Julia Polastri	38 of 64	59%	38 of 64	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	20 of 63	31%	20 of 63	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Julia Polastri	137 of 253	54%	85 of 193	42 of 49	10 of 11	123 of 233	14 of 20	0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz	72 of 192	37%	24 of 121	36 of 57	12 of 14	71 of 189	1 of 3	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Julia Polastri	53 of 93	56%	31 of 67	17 of 20	5 of 6	43 of 80	10 of 13	0 of 0
1	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	22 of 61	36%	7 of 40	13 of 18	2 of 3	21 of 60	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Julia Polastri	46 of 96	47%	29 of 79	14 of 14	3 of 3	42 of 89	4 of 7	0 of 0
2	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	30 of 68	44%	7 of 32	16 of 29	7 of 7	30 of 66	0 of 2	0 of 0
3	Julia Polastri	38 of 64	59%	25 of 47	11 of 15	2 of 2	38 of 64	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	20 of 63	31%	10 of 49	7 of 10	3 of 4	20 of 63	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Julia Polastri
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Polastri (-450), Kowalkiewicz (+350)

Round 1
Strawweights take center stage as the prelims roll on. With a 12-year youth advantage on her side, a win for Polastri (13-5, 1-2 UFC) would lead her to a .500 record in the Octagon while dumping Kowalkiewicz (16-9, 9-9 UFC) below that threshold. A chasm of high-level experience separates the two, but it is “Psycho” who will serve as a significant betting favorite. The two ladies will be joined in the cage by referee Marc Goddard, who clocks them in as they clap hands.
Kowalkiewicz takes right to the center of the cage, and as booming chants of “Uh Vai Morrer” rain down, Polastri flashes a wry grin. The ladies toss out low kicks, and Kowalkiewicz strings together a combination ending with a left hand. Polastri resets and pitches a leg kick, only for Kowalkiewicz to counter over the top. Kowalkiewicz rips a body kick in the midst of her strike combos, and Polastri is not a fan and fires back with one much heavier. The former title challenger grimaces from the strike to her midsection, and Polastri explodes into a flurry of punches and kicks. Kowalkiewicz protects herself against the wire, and she smiles when Polastri peels back. The smile quickly turns to a frown when Polastri drives a knee home to the body, but she is able to back off and shake it off. Kowalkiewicz throws a kick, changes stances and works the body. Kowalkiewicz slips a punch and connects with a right, and she takes a few on the chin to hit the Brazilian back.
Kowalkiewicz spins with a back fist, and it collides into the guard but she is not far enough away to avoid counters. Kowalkiewicz thinks about a trip takedown when catching one of Polastri’s kicks, but she lets the limb down where there is nothing to it. Polastri again tries to tie up the Polish woman, where she spams knees to what might be an already compromised midsection. Polastri goes over the top with an elbow, and she uses her weight to press Kowalkiewicz on the fencing. Kowalkiewicz gives her back a few knees and elbows to think about, forcing a break. Kowalkiewicz whiffs on the subsequent spinning back fist. A front kick from her does split the guard, and any cheers from her corner are completely drowned out from the chants of the crowd. They trade heavy blows while standing right in the pocket, with Polastri appearing to have the power advantage and the superior speed too. Kowalkiewicz feebly spins when under fire, and Polastri lays into her with an onslaught of punches that knock the former KSW fighter into the wall. As Polastri keeps connecting, the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Polastri

Round 2
They clap hands again to start off the second stanza, and some swelling has developed under Kowalkiewicz’ right eye. She pays it no mind as Polastri comes right at her throwing caution to the wind. Kowalkiewicz tries to take her off her feet with a takedown attempt, but Polastri shuts it down and punches her square in the face. Kowalkiewicz meanders forward to grapple again, and Polastri’s intercepting knee and uppercut shut that down. Polastri senses that Kowalkiewicz is struggling, and she walks her foe down and beats on her relentlessly. Kowalkiewicz bounds off the fence to reset, and Polastri drops her hands and takes several deep breaths to get her wind back from going all-out. Kowalkiewicz is tough as nails, and she takes advantage of this opening with distant strikes. Once Polastri is ready to engage again, she raises her hands and cracks the Polish woman. Polastri fearlessly approaches her opponent, even with her energy reserves far from full, and she welcomes striking exchanges. Kowalkiewicz puts volume together as Polastri is looking for big power blows, and although Kowalkiewicz takes some on the chin, she evades the worst of the blows…until she doesn’t.
Totally unafraid of anything that comes back at her, Polastri connects with a flurry of punches and kicks that knock Kowalkiewicz back to the wall again. When Kowalkiewicz tries to get away, Polastri raises her arms in the air to further lather up the ravenous audience. Kowalkiewicz attempts a takedown, and Polastri takes longer to stop it but still manages to stonewall the former title challenger. Polastri flashes out a jab directly on the swollen cheek, and Kowalkiewicz kicks her back in the body. Polastri slaps her midsection, and she walks through the potshots of Kowalkiewicz to land heavy punches that bust open Kowalkiewicz’ nose. Kowalkiewicz spins with an elbow that bangs off the forehead, and Polastri energizes herself into one final assault before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Polastri

Round 3
After 10 minutes of action, the strawweights come together in the center of the cage to hug it out. Polastri lands a single power strike, and Kowalkiewicz lets her have it with a long, effective flurry of fists and feet. Kowalkiewicz swings and ducks away to evade counters, and Polastri is still sporadically swinging for the bleachers. Kowalkiewicz sticks her foe with a short right hand, and she stuns the Brazilian for a second with another scooping uppercut. Polastri steels herself and boots Kowalkiewicz upside the head, and that only spurs Kowalkiewicz into more activity with a lengthy stretch of punches. Polastri connects with a hard body shot, and Kowalkiewicz’ body language and expression changes. Polastri digs several more strikes to the torso, and Kowalkiewicz bends over to try to take some of the sting out of them and has to actually sprint away to fully reset. Polastri walks her down like a Terminator, and her punches have developed more swelling and damage on Kowalkiewicz’ face.
With a full head of steam, Polastri steps in with a booming head kick that shakes up the ex-title challenger. Putting Kowalkiewicz’ on ice skates, Polastri marches forward and delivers a ruthless combination of punches to the head and body that have Kowalkiewicz in all sorts of trouble. With a couple minute still left on the clock, Polastri is cognizant that she does not want to punch herself out, but she knows that Kowalkiewicz is in trouble.
“Psycho” lets loose with all of her remaining energy, busting up Kowalkiewicz further and knocking her head around like a speed bag. As Kowalkiewicz is barely on her feet, possibly because the cage is behind her, Goddard intervenes to save the Polish woman from her toughness.
The crowd goes wild for the first Brazilian tonight to beat a foreign opponent, and Polastri hands Kowalkiewicz her second knockout loss—the first came from the mighty fist of Jessica Andrade. That is good company to be in.

The Official Result
Julia Polastri def. Karolina Kowalkiewicz R3 2:56 via TKO (Head Kick and Punches)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Julia Polastri

Angelo leans towards Julia Polastri, citing her better striking, speed, and cleaner technique. He notes Karolina is too old and slowing down. However, he does not trust Julia enough at the current odds and prefers the over 2.5 rounds prop instead of the moneyline.

over 2.5 rounds

"I think Julia's a better striker. I think she's faster. She's cleaner. Because of that, I think she wins here. I do not trust her enough at these odds. But the over two and a half is good as gold."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Julia Polastri

Big Brady picks Julia Polastri, citing her youth (27 vs 39), and being better everywhere: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He expects Polastri to come forward landing bigger shots and win a decision in Brazil. He acknowledges Karolina is tough and has decent volume, but believes Polastri's advantages are clear.

"Pastri, I think she's just better everywhere, you know, especially at the both stages of their career."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Julia Polastri

Cody picks Polastri but is not confident, noting Kowalkiewicz's experience and potential to make it close. He believes Polastri's youth and speed will be key, but expects a decision that could go either way. He suggests Polastri by decision.

decision

"I just can't pick Karolina but I will fully admit this is a lot closer to the CF dot model."

Bookie Beatdown

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Julia Polastri

Lucrative James is very confident in Julia Polastri, citing Karolina Kowalkiewicz's age (turning 40) and lack of improvement. He believes Polastri is the better striker and grappler, and expects her to dominate. He notes that Kowalkiewicz is a striker and won't be able to wrestle effectively. He sees a finish as likely, pointing to Polastri's submission skills and the poor odds on the under 2.5 rounds (+334) and KO (+900) as value. He picks Polastri confidently.

under 2.5 rounds (+334), Julia Polastri by KO (+900), Julia Polastri by submission (+450)

"I side with the big favorite in this fight, boys. I side with Julia Palestri."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Julia Polastri

Manpreet is confident in Polastri, citing her youth, speed, and well-rounded game. He expects her to mix takedowns with striking and win a clear decision, as Kowalkiewicz is past her prime and on a losing streak. He doesn't mind the chalky odds.

Polastri by decision

"I don't mind Palatstri at chalky odds here. She's just in a far better place than Kowalkiewicz is in her career."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Julia Polastri

Paul picks Polastri but is hesitant, calling it close to a 'CF dot model.' He notes Kowalkiewicz's age and 0-4 record against Brazilians, but expects a competitive decision. He suggests Polastri by decision.

decision

"I did end up taking her because with Karolina, if it wasn't the end her last fight, I think it's going to be the end this one."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Julia Polastri

The MMA Guru picks Julia Polastri over Karolina Kowalkiewicz, believing Kowalkiewicz is past her prime at nearly 40 and has looked poor recently. He notes Polastri has wins over decent competition and is fighting in Brazil. He predicts a decision win, likely 29-28.

over 2.5 total rounds (for prize picks)

"I'm going to trust in Julia Palastri to get this one done by decision. Maybe 30-27, maybe 2928."

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Loopy Godinez

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Mar 29, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Loopy Godinez	0	84 of 150	56%	114 of 184	5 of 11	45%	0	0	7:30
Julia Polastri	0	87 of 151	57%	117 of 186	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:19

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Loopy Godinez	11 of 22	50%	26 of 38	2 of 2	100%	3:26
1	Julia Polastri	14 of 25	56%	24 of 36	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Loopy Godinez	15 of 27	55%	26 of 41	2 of 3	66%	3:16
2	Julia Polastri	15 of 33	45%	25 of 47	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Loopy Godinez	58 of 101	57%	62 of 105	1 of 6	16%	0:48
3	Julia Polastri	58 of 93	62%	68 of 103	0 of 0	---	0:19

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Loopy Godinez	84 of 150	56%	71 of 135	9 of 11	4 of 4	75 of 141	7 of 7	2 of 2
Julia Polastri	87 of 151	57%	58 of 112	14 of 23	15 of 16	78 of 135	4 of 4	5 of 12

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Loopy Godinez	11 of 22	50%	8 of 19	1 of 1	2 of 2	11 of 22	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Julia Polastri	14 of 25	56%	4 of 11	5 of 9	5 of 5	13 of 20	0 of 0	1 of 5
2	Loopy Godinez	15 of 27	55%	12 of 23	2 of 3	1 of 1	13 of 25	0 of 0	2 of 2
2	Julia Polastri	15 of 33	45%	7 of 21	3 of 7	5 of 5	11 of 26	0 of 0	4 of 7
3	Loopy Godinez	58 of 101	57%	51 of 93	6 of 7	1 of 1	51 of 94	7 of 7	0 of 0
3	Julia Polastri	58 of 93	62%	47 of 80	6 of 7	5 of 6	54 of 89	4 of 4	0 of 0

Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Loopy Godinez

Connor picks Godinez but is hesitant, noting that Polastri is a powerful bully who could pressure Godinez into hesitation. He thinks Godinez needs to be the aggressor and use her wrestling to control the fight. He compares her to Sam Hughes in needing consistency and determination.

"I think I'm gonna pick Godinez. I think there's a strong chance Polastri puts a scare in her and wins because of it."

MMA Vivisection

Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Loopy Godinez

Zane picks Godinez but shares Connor's worry about her confidence. He notes that Godinez has struggled against pressure and that Polastri is a dangerous, powerful striker. However, he thinks Godinez can be busier and more successful at range, and that Polastri's lack of range control will allow Godinez to wrestle effectively.

"I share your feelings exactly. I think I'm gonna pick Godinez. I think there's a strong chance Polastri puts a scare in her."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Cory McKenna

Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Oct 12, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Julia Polastri	0	88 of 145	60%	142 of 203	0 of 1	0%	0	0	3:13
Cory McKenna	0	40 of 124	32%	98 of 198	1 of 6	16%	0	0	5:20

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Julia Polastri	40 of 58	68%	58 of 79	0 of 0	---	1:05
1	Cory McKenna	17 of 42	40%	43 of 69	0 of 2	0%	1:38
2	Julia Polastri	26 of 43	60%	49 of 66	0 of 1	0%	1:57
2	Cory McKenna	15 of 44	34%	20 of 50	0 of 1	0%	0:44
3	Julia Polastri	22 of 44	50%	35 of 58	0 of 0	---	0:11
3	Cory McKenna	8 of 38	21%	35 of 79	1 of 3	33%	2:58

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Julia Polastri	88 of 145	60%	40 of 92	35 of 39	13 of 14	54 of 102	32 of 39	2 of 4
Cory McKenna	40 of 124	32%	30 of 112	6 of 8	4 of 4	35 of 114	5 of 8	0 of 2

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Julia Polastri	40 of 58	68%	17 of 33	18 of 19	5 of 6	21 of 35	19 of 23	0 of 0
1	Cory McKenna	17 of 42	40%	12 of 35	3 of 5	2 of 2	15 of 38	2 of 4	0 of 0
2	Julia Polastri	26 of 43	60%	10 of 25	10 of 12	6 of 6	16 of 31	10 of 12	0 of 0
2	Cory McKenna	15 of 44	34%	10 of 39	3 of 3	2 of 2	12 of 40	3 of 4	0 of 0
3	Julia Polastri	22 of 44	50%	13 of 34	7 of 8	2 of 2	17 of 36	3 of 4	2 of 4
3	Cory McKenna	8 of 38	21%	8 of 38	0 of 0	0 of 0	8 of 36	0 of 0	0 of 2

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Cory McKenna vs. Julia Polastri
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Polastri (-125), McKenna (+105)

Round 1
Pushing right along, ladies take center stage as Polastri (12-4, 0-1 UFC) tries to make good on her second chance to make a first impression. She collides with fellow diminutive strawweight McKenna (8-3, 3-2 UFC), with the two measuring about 10’5” combined. The 115ers will carry on with referee Chris Tognoni taking charge of the cage, and they gladly clap hands before commencing combat. McKenna moves to the center of the cage, stutter-stepping her way in to disrupt her opponent as she advances to initiate some wrestling. Polastri intercepts her with a few punches on the way in, and she frames off McKenna in the clinch to knee her in the head and midsection. McKenna uses her own shoulder pressure to keep grinding the Brazilian, but Polastri turns her around with a bouquet of knees. Polastri looks for a few knees to the dome, and McKenna spins her around and cracks her with a short but effective right hand. McKenna drops down for a double, and Polastri keeps her balance as the commentary booth drifts off into a conversation of taking down tables. Polastri dirty boxes with knees, elbows and short shots to the head and ribs, and she stands McKenna up with an uppercut and uses a right hand to break. Polastri beats McKenna to the punch with a long jab, only for McKenna to come back over the top with a one-two. Polastri leaps forward with a flying knee that crashes into McKenna’s jaw, and she fearlessly stalks her down to throw hands and feet. McKenna draws some swelling around Polastri’s right eye thanks to a few solid left hands, and she loops a left hook and a right around the guard while Polastri hunts for elbows. Polastri jabs with a front kick, and a second is met with an overhand right. Two one-twos from McKenna find their home as she backs away, and she cannot get out of the way of heavy right over the top. Polastri chains a body kick into a right hand, and she ties McKenna up and knees her repeatedly. A knee on the button makes McKenna think twice about engaging like this, and Polastri walks her down and knees her a few times before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Polastri

Round 2
Polastri comes out of her corner to take the center of the cage, and she calmly walks McKenna down before leaping at her with a jump knee. The knee bounces off the Welshwoman’s chest, and she keeps her guard up to block a long left hand and retaliate with a body kick. Polastri absorbs a jab to come out swinging with a combination of punches and a knee before shoving McKenna to the wall in a clinch. As Polastri works the body with knees, McKenna tries to respond with a head-and-arm throw that fails miserably. Polastri lines up knee after knee to the midsection, ignoring what McKenna gives back at her. McKenna breaks away and fires off a one-two, and she follows it with a right to the body as she dances out of the way of a counter. Polastri shrugs off the offense aimed at her so she can keep McKenna on her back foot, and she shoots in for a double and uses it to take McKenna’s back standing. Polastri winds up with big knees to the back of the thigh as she makes McKenna’s life miserable in the clinch, jumping over to get a hook in on the side in hopes of dragging McKenna down. McKenna fights off the hook, but the arms of the Brazilian are locked around McKenna’s waist. McKenna breaks up a seatbelt position around her chest so she can spin around and pay Polastri back for a few of those knees before splitting off. Polastri follows her along and kicks her upside the head. McKenna swings frantically as Polastri gives chase, and Polastri does damage to the body as McKenna throws with anything she has while strafing. McKenna lands a few shots, but Polastri knees her in the noodle twice as the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Polastri

Round 3
The Brazilian offers a clap of hands to start the final round, and McKenna gladly accepts only to get kicked in the ribs as she backs off. Polastri tees off on her opponent with punches and body kicks, and she allows McKenna to get in close so she can knee her in the guts. McKenna backs off and dips out with two shovel uppercuts, and Polastri completely no-sells them to chase the woman from Wales. They land at the same time, and Polastri’s left hook lands harder as she races after McKenna and swings an elbow at her. McKenna escapes from getting backed to the wall momentarily, but it does not take more than a high kick and a jab from “Psycho” to put McKenna on her back foot. As Polastri lines up several punches, she connects at the end of a combo to stagger McKenna back. McKenna gets pushed to the wall and absorbs a slashing elbow before she is able to turn around and shoot for a double. Polastri sprawls to defend the shot and even scores a knee from up close, pressing on the back of McKenna’s head to keep her from succeeding. McKenna finally manages to clasp her hands around Polastri’s backside, dumping the Brazilian to her back in a big moment. Polastri throws her legs up to defend with either a high guard or a triangle choke setup, and the Team Alpha Male export shrugs it off and opens up with a few punches while hunting for a guard pass. Polastri times this by attempting a sweep, and McKenna keeps heavy to maintain top position. Polastri attempts another triangle, and settles for using her feet to push off McKenna’s hips to make her adjust. Polastri closes the guard when McKenna lowers herself down, and her strikes from the back may be more powerful than McKenna’s that are hitting her back. McKenna rains down punches until Polastri kicks her foe in the chest, and McKenna gets off one diving punch before the final horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Polastri (30-27 Polastri)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Polastri (30-27 Polastri)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Polastri (30-27 Polastri)

The Official Result
Julia Polastri def. Cory McKenna via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Cory McKenna

Angelo picks Cory McKenna, admitting bias toward her aggressive style. He notes that McKenna's decision-making is a concern, but in this matchup she doesn't need perfect decisions. He believes if she stays aggressive with busy striking and takedowns, she can win. He plans to bet on McKenna via plus 3.5 rather than moneyline, as he thinks she can win at least one round.

Planning plus 3.5 bet on Cory McKenna

"Cory McKenna is going to be the pick... I will be betting on Corey McKenna I will be waiting for the plus three and a half."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Julia Polastri

Big Brady picks Julia Polastri by decision, but is hesitant due to the fight likely going to the judges. He was impressed with Polastri's takedowns and ground success against Josephine Knutsson, though her striking looked poor in that fight. He criticizes Cory McKenna's fight IQ and trustworthiness, recalling her refusal to take down Elise Reed and getting submitted by Jacqueline Amorim. He believes Polastri is the better striker with improving takedown defense, but expects a close decision that could go either way.

Polastri by decision

"I like uh ler here but again it's it's going to go to decision and it's going to come down to what the Crooked corrupt blind judges think in this one"

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Cory McKenna

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Polastri is not very good and McKenna should be able to win if she fights patiently. He points out that McKenna has short arms and struggles with range, but Polastri's lack of athleticism makes her beatable. Connor is cautious because McKenna has made poor decisions in the past.

"Yeah, just stick with it stay in palastri's face throw punches stay consistent work your jab work kicks should all work"

MMA Vivisection

Connor Ruebusch Expert picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Julia Polastri

Daniel believes Polastri has a mean streak and can strike with McKenna, who he views as not a threat on the feet. He thinks McKenna's only path is takedowns, but Polastri can stuff them and win on the feet. Daniel is confident Polastri will stuff takedowns and bust up McKenna.

"I think Julia Polastri is going to come out here stuff takedowns bust up Cory McKenna and win this fight."

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Julia Polastri

Polastri has improved since dropping to 115 lbs, fighting women closer to her size. She should stop McKenna's grappling attempts and batter her on the feet, possibly having grappling success of her own. Polastri will land the more damaging blows and win on the scorecards.

"I think that will see that payoff for her here as she stops the majority of grappling attempts from McKenna and batter her on the feet"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Cory McKenna

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Cory McKenna, primarily because she has a full training camp while Julia Polastri took the fight on short notice. He acknowledges Polastri could pull off the win but favors the full camp advantage. He notes that McKenna's grappling should be the difference, though he hasn't been impressed by her in moments.

"I'll say Cory McKenna gets this one done with her grappling majority of people think pastry wins but I'll go against it"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

MMA Vivisection

Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Cory McKenna

Zane picks McKenna very cautiously, noting that Polastri doesn't seem good at anything and is a poor athlete. He thinks McKenna should stick to striking, work her jab and kicks, and avoid grappling with Polastri. However, he worries about McKenna's poor decision-making, as seen against Amarene, and her lack of athleticism.

"I'll take me kind of very cautiously very cautiously indeed because I do I do not think balastri's very good"

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Josefine Lindgren Knutsson

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Perez vs. Taira · Jun 15, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Josefine Lindgren Knutsson	0	124 of 244	50%	145 of 271	0 of 0	---	0	1	0:43
Julia Polastri	0	64 of 122	52%	86 of 152	3 of 3	100%	1	0	4:34

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Josefine Lindgren Knutsson	61 of 108	56%	64 of 111	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:06
1	Julia Polastri	34 of 62	54%	36 of 65	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:22
2	Josefine Lindgren Knutsson	24 of 51	47%	32 of 63	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
2	Julia Polastri	5 of 12	41%	16 of 27	1 of 1	100%	0	0	2:55
3	Josefine Lindgren Knutsson	39 of 85	45%	49 of 97	0 of 0	---	0	1	0:37
3	Julia Polastri	25 of 48	52%	34 of 60	1 of 1	100%	1	0	1:17

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Josefine Lindgren Knutsson	124 of 244	50%	68 of 173	31 of 43	25 of 28	109 of 220	12 of 19	3 of 5
Julia Polastri	64 of 122	52%	38 of 83	19 of 29	7 of 10	43 of 91	3 of 6	18 of 25

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Josefine Lindgren Knutsson	61 of 108	56%	33 of 69	15 of 24	13 of 15	50 of 94	11 of 14	0 of 0
1	Julia Polastri	34 of 62	54%	23 of 44	9 of 14	2 of 4	16 of 39	2 of 3	16 of 20
2	Josefine Lindgren Knutsson	24 of 51	47%	9 of 35	7 of 8	8 of 8	21 of 43	1 of 4	2 of 4
2	Julia Polastri	5 of 12	41%	3 of 9	1 of 2	1 of 1	5 of 10	0 of 0	0 of 2
3	Josefine Lindgren Knutsson	39 of 85	45%	26 of 69	9 of 11	4 of 5	38 of 83	0 of 1	1 of 1
3	Julia Polastri	25 of 48	52%	12 of 30	9 of 13	4 of 5	22 of 42	1 of 3	2 of 3

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Josefine Lindgren Knutsson vs. Julia Polastri
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Knutsson (-225), Polastri (+185)

Round 1
It has been a wild week leading up to UFC on ESPN 58, and this along with the next two UFC events have taken serious hits. With 11 bouts left for this show at this, the 100th card held at the UFC Apex, it will serve as an appetizer for the high drama to come within the next 14 days. The action kicks off in the women’s strawweight division, as Knutsson (7-0, 1-0 UFC) looks to remain in the ranks of the unbeaten at the expense of debuting Brazilian Polastri (12-3, 0-0 UFC). Both women earned their places on the roster during the 2023 season of Dana White’s Contender Series, and win streaks of seven and four are on the line. Referee Chris Tognoni will draw the charge for the first fight of the night, and there is no glove touch to get things started. Knutsson paws out a front kick to find her early range, and Polastri responds with one up high and narrowly misses. Knutsson takes a right hand on the nose, frowns and throws a long string of punches and kicks together. Polastri smiles and looks for a counter, but Knutsson pushes her back to the wall and knees her a few times. Polastri pushes her away with a front kick and a devilish grin creeps across her face. Any time Knutsson throws something at her, Polastri just enjoys it and takes it, but is not landing much of her own in response. Knutsson beats her to the proverbial punch with low kicks and a right hand over the top, and her knee finds the nose effectively. Knutsson pushes out a front kick, and she follows it with a head kick that slips around the guard. Knutsson stays busy with a jumping stomp kick, and she rings “Psycho” up with four punches after walking through a jab. Knutsson just misses with an overhand right, and she chases the Brazilian around the cage and lays into her with punches and jump knees. Knutsson smacks Polastri in the face with a front kick, and the expression on the Brazilian has changed. Knutsson lines up a knee up the middle, a left hand and a push kick to get Polastri away and out of counter range. Knutsson use her front kick as a jab, and she gets off another one to the nose before lunging in with two hooks. Knutsson prods with a push kick, and when Polastri looks for something on her own end, Knutsson digs another to the body. Polastri tries to push in and strike, and Knutsson tags her with punches and a few knees. Polastri scores her own punches, and she hits a quick trip and dumps Knutsson on the floor. Polastri jumps into full mount and immediately begins bombarding Knutsson with ground-and-pound. Knutsson defends herself well enough, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Knutsson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Knutsson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Knutsson
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Round 2
Knutsson scores first to begin the second round, using her longer legs to attack targets high and low. Polastri begins to start smiling again as strikes continue to find her unblocked, and she throws one back to Knutsson’s handful. Knutsson splits the guard with a one-two and shoves Polastri away with a solid front kick, and Polastri rolls her eyes as she rebounds off the fence. Knutsson jabs away with her legs, continuing to fluster the Brazilian, and she makes Polastri spin around as Polastri blocks a high kick. Knutsson steps in with a front kick to the belly, and she keeps moving forward and lands one with her other foot. While Knutsson pecks and pokes with irritating kicks, Polastri surges forward and completes a takedown to dump Knutsson on her back. Polastri jams down elbows, and a precarious cut opens on the Swede’s right eyelid. Knutsson closes her guard to try to slow down offense raining down on her, and she kicks off briefly to get some space but finds Polastri still smothering her. As Polastri sits back, Knutsson blasts her with a number of illegal upkicks, and Tognoni calls time and allows Polastri to recover from the three illegal blows. Polastri says that she is fine, and Tognoni warns Knutsson and also brings in the doctor to check out Knutsson’s eye. The physician clears her to continue and Tognoni issues a hard warning, and Tognoni resets them in the position they left off before the upkicks. Knutsson almost lands another illegal upkick as soon as they start up again, and Polastri is lucky to avoid it and hops over to the side. Knutsson sees Polastri crawl over her, and she sets up an inverted triangle that is not choking the Brazilian. Polastri signals a thumbs-up, and she gets warned for kneeing the spine when she tries to break out of it. The round concludes in this position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Polastri

Round 3
The two women start trading almost immediately, with Polastri looking to get her own hands going while Knutsson is content to chip away from a safe distance. Knutsson puts two punches together and slips back before the leg kick counter can reach her. Polastri keeps her guard up, and Knutsson strings six punches together including a few that get through. Knutsson steps in with an elbow, and Polastri parries it and gets drawn into a brief brawl. The Swede lands the fiercer of the strikes in the exchanges, but she is the one who backpedals to reset. Polastri strides after her, digging a punch and a right hand in response. Polastri works the body with a few kicks, and she wings power strikes to keep Knutsson honest. Knutsson reaches a right hand over the top, and Polastri pushes her back with her own front kick. Knutsson connects with a couple more powerful punches, and she starts feeling herself and even lashes out with an axe kick. In the midst of a Knutsson punch salvo, Polastri rushes at her and changes levels to get the takedown. The strawweights scramble, and Polastri rolls her over to wind up on top. Polastri opens up with strikes as she meanders to half guard, and she leans herself down to clamp down with an arm-triangle choke. Polastri steps over to the side and into mount, and she squeezes with the position even tighter than before. Due to sheer force of will, Knutsson flips Polastri over and yanks her head out of the submission danger. Polastri hangs on to the arms to protect herself rom some final blows, and she explodes back to her feet and eats a knee. The two trade a few more punches, and the close bout comes to an end.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Knutsson (29-28 Knutsson)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Knutsson (29-28 Knutsson)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Knutsson (29-28 Knutsson)

The Official Result
Josefine Lindgren Knutsson def. Julia Polastri via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Josefine Lindgren Knutsson

Angelo picks Josephine at high confidence, citing her well-rounded game and ability to mix in takedowns. He acknowledges Julia is the more dangerous striker with more power, but believes Josephine will wrestle more if needed. He also mentions he has a bet on Julia by win inside the distance (decision no action) as a hedge, because Josephine is unlikely to finish and Julia could finish.

Bet on Julia Polastri win inside the distance (decision no action)

"Josephine is my pick but I do have a bet on Julia Polastri I got win inside the distance decision no action"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Josefine Lindgren Knutsson

Cody picks Josefine Knutsson, highlighting her Muay Thai, clinch work, and physical strength. He notes that she has good takedown defense and has been working on her wrestling. Cody believes she can control the fight in the clinch and on the feet, and win a decision. He is confident in her ability to outwork Polastri.

"I really like Josephine Knutsson to be honest with you... she is very physically strong loves being inside that clinch."

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Josefine Lindgren Knutsson

Daniel Vreeland picks Josefine Lindgren Knutsson, citing her technical striking and clinch work. He believes she can outpoint Julia Polastri at range and neutralize her in the clinch. He acknowledges Polastri's chance if she makes it a brawl but thinks Knutsson will pick her apart.

"I do think uh Josephine Newson picks her apart"

Half the Battle

Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Julia Polastri

Jacob picks Julia as his lock of the week, though not super confident. He describes Julia as a tough fighter who absorbs damage and returns it with more power, comparing her to vibranium. He thinks Julia will walk forward, eat shots, and eventually overwhelm Josephine with pressure and power. He expects a close decision and notes that Julia's takedown defense and ability to get back up are key.

"Julia is my lock of the week and not super confident in it"

We Want Picks

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Josefine Lindgren Knutsson

Knutsson's aggressiveness and physicality will be the difference, allowing her to dictate the pace, put Polastri in bad positions, grind her out, and win a decision.

"I believe her aggressiveness will be the Difference Maker here and her physicality which should allow her to dictate the pace of this match up putting past in bad positions grinding her out and picking up a decision Victory"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Josefine Lindgren Knutsson

Paul picks Knutsson but is hesitant, noting that he is not confident in her ability to get takedowns early. He thinks the fight could be competitive and that Polastri has experience against tough opponents. Paul prefers to avoid betting this fight.

"Canon will be the pick for me as well... not a fight that I plan to attack from a betting perspective."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 11, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Josefine Lindgren Knutsson

The MMA Guru picks Josefine Knutsson by TKO in the later rounds. He believes Knutsson is much better on the feet and that Polastri needs to earn respect on the feet before getting takedowns, which she won't be able to do against Knutsson. He trusts Knutsson's takedown defense and thinks Polastri's path to victory requires walking through fire that she can't handle.

TKO in later rounds

"I reckon Josephine kutson is going to win this fight by TKO in the later rounds"

THE MMA GURU

Expert Picks (7)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Talita Alencar

"I'm going with the dog. I'm gonna pick the dog. She's obviously live for a sub but if she doesn't get it to the ground she's gonna get the [__] beat out of her."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Julia Polastri

Polastri wins by third round knockout

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Julia Polastri

Polastri opened at -200, now -240; Alencar opened at +170, now +205. Connor thinks the line is a bit wide but understandable.

"i think i'm gonna take pilasterie yeah me too i think it could be a real 50 50 fight alan yark goes out and gets all the takedowns early swamps her in the first round gets an early takedown in round two pilasterie maybe fights her way up starts winning …"

MMA Vivisection

Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Hesitant picked Apr 25, 2026 (fight day)

Talita Alencar

Alencar +3.5 rounds; fight likely goes to decision but odds too poor to bet; prefers live betting

"The better bet of the two is Alencar. It's clearly the dog or pass, but that's simply just letting the odds do the work for you."

Diary of a Pro Gambler

Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Julia Polastri

James picks Polastri, expecting her to survive early takedowns and come back with a third-round finish as Alencar gasses. He notes Polastri's history of late finishes and Alencar's cardio issues.

KO in round three

"I'm going to pick Pastry cuz I think she's going to get a third round finish."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Julia Polastri

Polastri by round 3 TKO

"give me plaster and plaster by round three TKO"

MMA Lock of the Night

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Julia Polastri

Polastri opened at -200, now -240; Alencar opened at +170, now +205. Zane is surprised the line is so wide.

MMA Vivisection

Talita Alencar

Julia Polastri

Career Averages - Talita Alencar

Career Averages - Julia Polastri

Talita Alencar

Julia Polastri

Talita Alencar - Fight History

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Expert Picks (7)