Rafa García vs Alexander Hernandez

Rafa Garcia vs. Alexander Hernandez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-145); Garcia (+120)

Round 1
Going forward, the last six athletes tonight hoist UFC records above .500. Even with a defeat, any one of the losing parties will not fall to that threshold either. Garcia (18-4, 6-4 UFC) has seen some serious success as of late, winning four of five including a knockout of Jared Gordon in his last time out. Hernandez (18-8, 10-7 UFC) finally gets to fight again after a UFC 324 match against Michael Johnson was nixed due to extreme betting irregularities. Referee Kerry Hatley will stand vigilant while the lightweights engage in sanctioned fisticuffs, with the two athletes not bothering to bump fists first.
They engage in some early jabbery and pokery, with Garcia looking to follow his ones with right hands. He scores one to drive Hernandez back a few steps, reddening the Texan’s nose immediately. Garcia nails the front leg with a kick so hard that Hernandez has to recoil it behind his other leg, and he circles on the outer edge looking for a way in. Garcia plans a kick on the front leg again while Hernandez is about to engage, shutting that attack down. Hernandez steps in with a knee to the body, getting it off just before Garcia can hit him with his overhand right. Garcia bounces and works his way forward, staying away from Hernandez’ kicks as he jabs straight ahead. Garcia wings a short left hook that brushes the chin, putting “The Great Ape” on notice.
Hernandez shadowboxes on the outside edge, unable to get close, while Garcia can seemingly close the distance at will. Garcia plans a kick on the inside calf, and Hernandez gives him back a loud body kick to think about. Garcia plods forward using a tight, high guard, keeping Hernandez to largely single strikes. Garcia stings his opponent and sees an opening to drop down to his knees to get hold a double, and he tosses Hernandez down for a second. Hernandez climbs back up, and Garcia elevates him with a high-crotch lift and slams him down with gravitas. Hernandez appears no worse for wear as both men gets back to their feet without issue, but it is Garcia who continues to press the action. Hernandez comes up short on his winging punches, but a left hand brushes open a cut on Garcia’s left eye. Hernandez is shoved to his knees, and he eats a few shots before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 2
Picking up right where he left off, Garcia is the pressure fighter. He works his way in to drive a left hand down the middle, drawing a thin trickle of blood from his foe’s left nostril. Hernandez keeps his wits about him as Garcia plods towards him, but the volume from Garcia has diminished to a degree. Garcia walks his man down to put three fists on the face, and he chases but does not cut off “The Great Ape” as he stays right in front of him. Hernandez has to desperately scramble from side to side to get away, and the accuracy of Garcia is something to behold as Hernandez appears shocked when he gets caught repeatedly.
Hernandez tries to back Garcia off with a head kick, but Garcia blocks it and flashes a devilish grin. Garcia counters a front kick with a right hand down the pipe, snapping the head back and forcing Hernandez to circle rapidly to his right away from the power. The fists of Garcia have quickly transformed Hernandez’ visage into a bloody mess, while Garcia’s light wound on his eyebrow opens up again during a fierce but brief exchange. Garcia wades forward, stops, winds up and throws, and he tags Hernandez flush. He changes levels to break things up, and Hernandez keeps to his feet and backs off. Garcia jabs him up and starts talking to him as the round ends, with both men getting into the other’s face. Hatley has to separate them and usher them back to their respective corners.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 3
Garcia does not stay seated in his corner long enough to get his eye cut sealed, as he is amped up and ready to throw hands. He does exactly that when the third round kicks off, stepping right into the pocket to throw hammers. Hernandez has to inevitably retreat due to the pressure, so Garcia does not let him off the hook. Garcia throws everything and the kitchen sink, and Hernandez’ chin is granite but as it starts to fade, he starts to engage less and circle more. With Hernandez backpedaling, Garcia rushes after him and pursues a takedown.
Hernandez stands him up with his back to the fence, keeping his balance as blood leaks from his nose. Garcia elevates and dumps Hernandez down, and when Hernandez stands, Garcia belts him with a sharp combination. Hernandez throws back no matter the position, but Garcia is unafraid of the return offerings. Hernandez starts to pick things up, almost certainly down on the scorecards, and he manages to back Garcia up after landing cleanly a few times. The fighters duke it out one after the other, with big damage developing around Hernandez’ left eye. No one cares about damage or blood or anything, engaging in an absolutely rip-roaring slugfest for the remainder of the round. Damage was inflicted aplenty in their 15-minute engagement, and the fighters squash any inkling of a beef right after the final horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Garcia)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Garcia)

The Official Result
Rafa Garcia def. Alexander Hernandez via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez as the better fighter, citing his explosiveness, speed, cardio, and power. He notes that Hernandez is on a four-fight win streak with back-to-back knockouts. He acknowledges that Rafa García is the better straight wrestler, but believes Hernandez scrambles well and has good cardio. He expresses concern that Hernandez needs to pull the trigger and not be outworked.

"Alexander Hernandez is the better fighter, so he's the pick. I just need him to actually pull the trigger."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Rafa García

Big Brady picks Rafa García over Alexander Hernandez. He sees advantages for García in boxing volume, wrestling, durability, and cardio. He expects a close fight but believes García's pace and cardio will be key, predicting a split decision win.

García wins by decision

"I'm going to take Garcia Garcia by decision."

DFS by the Numbers

Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2026 (fight day)

Rafa García

The host thinks Garcia is the better fighter but had a poor last performance. He expects a stand-up fight where Garcia can pressure Hernandez and test his gas tank. He notes Hernandez slows down and Garcia is durable, having been finished only once. He will bet Garcia +3.5 because Garcia is very likely to win the third round, and the fight likely goes to decision.

Garcia +3.5 rounds; fight likely goes to decision; great for live betting

"I will be betting Rafa Garcia plus 3.5 just because... I think it's very very very very very likely Garcia will win the third round."

Diary of a Pro Gambler

Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

James picks Alexander Hernandez, citing his athleticism and power advantage. He expects Hernandez to win the first two rounds and possibly fade in the third, but still outwork Garcia. He notes Garcia's toughness but believes Hernandez's level is higher.

"I like Alexander Hernandez in this one. I think he's going to get it done."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Rafa García

Garcia is on a two-fight winning streak with good durability and volume striking. Hernandez has a four-fight winning streak but relies on power and wrestling, and he has a questionable gas tank. Garcia should be able to stuff takedowns, outwork Hernandez on the feet, and pull away in the later rounds to win a decision.

"I think we'll see Garcia shuck off the takedowns of Hernandez or at least showcase enough resistance there that Hernandez can't grind out rounds. And then on the feet, I think Garcia has good enough uh durability that he should …"

MMA Lock of the Night

WIN vs Jared Gordon

KO R3 2:27 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Rafa García	1	91 of 162	56%	107 of 179	2 of 3	66%	2	1	2:01
Jared Gordon	0	65 of 186	34%	80 of 201	1 of 3	33%	0	0	0:09

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Rafa García	0	22 of 41	53%	23 of 42	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:24
1	Jared Gordon	0	23 of 64	35%	24 of 65	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00
2	Rafa García	0	33 of 61	54%	48 of 77	1 of 2	50%	1	1	1:12
2	Jared Gordon	0	31 of 86	36%	45 of 100	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:09
3	Rafa García	1	36 of 60	60%	36 of 60	0 of 0	---	1	0	0:25
3	Jared Gordon	0	11 of 36	30%	11 of 36	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Rafa García	91 of 162	56%	74 of 144	7 of 7	10 of 11	70 of 137	10 of 11	11 of 14
Jared Gordon	65 of 186	34%	55 of 171	8 of 13	2 of 2	65 of 186	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Rafa García	22 of 41	53%	15 of 33	2 of 2	5 of 6	20 of 39	2 of 2	0 of 0
1	Jared Gordon	23 of 64	35%	16 of 55	5 of 7	2 of 2	23 of 64	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Rafa García	33 of 61	54%	26 of 54	3 of 3	4 of 4	27 of 55	6 of 6	0 of 0
2	Jared Gordon	31 of 86	36%	29 of 82	2 of 4	0 of 0	31 of 86	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Rafa García	36 of 60	60%	33 of 57	2 of 2	1 of 1	23 of 43	2 of 3	11 of 14
3	Jared Gordon	11 of 36	30%	10 of 34	1 of 2	0 of 0	11 of 36	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

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Rafa Garcia vs. Jared Gordon
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gordon (-240); Garcia (+200)

Round 1
Kerry Hatley is the referee. Garcia opens with a low kick. Gordon steps in and lands a left. Gordon crashes forward and they exchange. Garcia fires right back. They trade leg kicks but Garcia is more impactful. Gordon probes with a lead hook and a jab. He follows up with a 1-2. A straight right connects for Garcia. A hard leg kick lands for Garcia. A short right by Garcia buckles Gordon’s knees momentarily, but he’s still in the fight. Gordon lands a body kick and then a striaght right. Garcia catches a kick and tags his foe with a right. Gordon stumbles to the floor but pops right back up. Garcia is hunting for that right and finds the range on another one. A stiff jab backs Gordon up. Gordon sticks a jab of his own. A counter right by Gordon makes an impact. He strings some punches together to back Garcia up. As Gordon gains momentum, Garcia changes levels and gets a takedown. Gordon gets to the fence and stands. They stay in the clinch, and Garcia lands a left on the break. Gordon lands a left hook before the end of the period.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Gordon

Round 2
Garcia makes Gordon stumble backward with a left at the outset. They’re trading and Gordon gets the better of it. Garcia jumps a guillotine and then rolls into mount. Gordon gets out of it and now must defend Garcia from his back. Gordon moves to the fence and works his way up. Garcia tries to drag Gordon down but it’s unsuccessful. They get back to boxing in the center of the cage. Plent of shots are landing. Gordon has Garcia covering up after landing a couple big rights. Garcia clinches and lands some uppercuts in close. Gordon jabs and then touches his foe with a right. Garcia with a stiff jab, but a counter left hook by Gordon has Garcia backing up. They’re trading in the pocket, but Gordon is landing combinations with more volume. However, Garcia cuts his opponent with an elbow. Gordon with a front kick down the middle. Garcia stumbles after eating a left hook. Garcia with a hard elbow in close quarters late and concludes the round with a takedown as time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 3
Garcia opens with a 1-2. He follows with an inside leg kick. Gordon responds with a combination in the pocket. They clinch and Garcia lands a couple of slashing elbows. Gordon pumps his jab. A left hook from Garcia stops Gordon. A heavy 1-2 finds the mark for Garcia, who then rips the body. GArcia is upping the volume as Gordon seems to be slowing. A right by Gordon lands on the side of the head, but Garcia is still attacking. Garcia rips the body with a left. A clean short right to the chin sends Gordon tumbling to the floor. Garcia tees off with punches on his reeling opponent before locking in a modified rear-naked choke. It’s pretty tight, but
he gives up on the submission to pummel Gordon with elbows from top position. He batters a bloodied Gordon with several more elbows before Hatley intervenes.
It’s a violent finish and just Garcia’s second career win via KO or TKO.

The Official Result
Rafa Gacia def. Jared Gordon via TKO (Elbows) R3 2:27

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

Angelo picks Jared Gordon, calling him the better overall fighter and more well-rounded. He notes Gordon is a good wrestler with high volume striking, tough and busy. He says he has seen Rafa Garcia get decisions that weren't his, and Jared Gordon not get decisions that should have been his. He is surprised to see Gordon as a 3-to-1 favorite. He suggests Rafa Garcia plus 3.5 as a possible bet.

Rafa Garcia plus three and a half might be the best bet here.

"I am going to pick Jared Gordon here. I have seen with my own eyes Rafa Garcia get decisions that weren't his."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

Big Brady picks Gordon due to his pace, volume, and recent power. He worries about corrupt judges but expects Gordon to win a decision. He notes Garcia is tough and has only been knocked out by Grant Dawson, so a finish is unlikely.

Decision win; not in love with the price

"Give me Gordon here. Not in love with the price tag to be honest, but I think he wins the fight and wins it by decision."

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

Connor picks Jared Gordon, emphasizing Gordon's technical boxing and ability to impose his game plan. He notes that García's loss to Chris Gruetzemacher shows he can be outworked, and Gordon is a more dangerous fighter than Gruetzemacher. Connor believes Gordon's pressure and sharper striking will overcome García's durability and lack of strategy.

"I think that Gordon can repeat that kind of success because he's a much more dangerous fighter than Chris Gruetzemacher was."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

Gordon is a big fan favorite and the host believes Garcia's lack of knockout threat allows Gordon to dictate the pace. He expects Gordon to stay on the gas, put Garcia against the cage, land takedowns, and win on the scorecards.

"I think this is a matchup where the lack of knockout threat from Rafa Garcia will allow Gordon to dictate the pace of this fight. Look for him to stay on the gas, put Garcia up against the cage, maybe …"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

The MMA Guru picks Jared Gordon, calling him the most underrated lightweight on the roster. He argues Gordon's boxing is superior to Garcia's and that Garcia lacks power. He criticizes Garcia's wins as unimpressive and believes Gordon should be a bigger favorite. He predicts a dominant performance with a TKO in the late second round, possibly including a 10-8 round.

TKO late second round

"I'm going with Jared Gordon, the most underrated lightweight on the roster. ... I'm going to say Jared Gordon gets this one done by a TKO in the first or second round."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

Zane picks Jared Gordon, citing Gordon's improved boxing form and power, which should allow him to land the bigger shots. He notes that García is durable but lacks power and a strategic approach, often floating through fights. Zane believes Gordon's consistent pressure and sharper striking will win a three-round war, as García's lack of imposition makes him vulnerable.

"I think I have to pick Jared Gordon in that kind of fight. He is likely to land the bigger shots."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Vinc Pichel

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Mar 29, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Rafa García	0	64 of 120	53%	76 of 136	2 of 6	33%	0	0	2:15
Vinc Pichel	0	79 of 182	43%	88 of 191	0 of 3	0%	0	0	0:01

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Rafa García	12 of 24	50%	19 of 33	1 of 2	50%	1:06
1	Vinc Pichel	13 of 38	34%	21 of 46	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Rafa García	21 of 49	42%	24 of 52	0 of 2	0%	0:23
2	Vinc Pichel	32 of 70	45%	32 of 70	0 of 1	0%	0:00
3	Rafa García	31 of 47	65%	33 of 51	1 of 2	50%	0:46
3	Vinc Pichel	34 of 74	45%	35 of 75	0 of 2	0%	0:01

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Rafa García	64 of 120	53%	49 of 102	12 of 14	3 of 4	59 of 114	4 of 5	1 of 1
Vinc Pichel	79 of 182	43%	32 of 116	27 of 43	20 of 23	74 of 174	4 of 7	1 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Rafa García	12 of 24	50%	7 of 17	3 of 4	2 of 3	11 of 23	1 of 1	0 of 0
1	Vinc Pichel	13 of 38	34%	7 of 30	2 of 3	4 of 5	12 of 36	0 of 1	1 of 1
2	Rafa García	21 of 49	42%	16 of 44	4 of 4	1 of 1	21 of 49	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Vinc Pichel	32 of 70	45%	12 of 43	13 of 19	7 of 8	29 of 67	3 of 3	0 of 0
3	Rafa García	31 of 47	65%	26 of 41	5 of 6	0 of 0	27 of 42	3 of 4	1 of 1
3	Vinc Pichel	34 of 74	45%	13 of 43	12 of 21	9 of 10	33 of 71	1 of 3	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Rafa Garcia vs. Vinc Pichel
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-485), Pichel (+370)

Round 1
Twelve years separate the next two competitors, with the younger man a heavy betting favorite. Garcia (16-4, 4-4 UFC) gets a huge pop from the crowd as the first Mexican-born athlete to hit the stage today, while the leisurely paced Pichel (14-4, 7-4 UFC) is showered in boos. The lightweights with a fairly similar amount of combat experience touch gloves before referee Raul Porrata. Pichel keeps his distance early, parrying any incoming fire and letting the energy in favor of Garcia wash over them both. Garcia breaks the silence with a huge overhand right and rips a left to the liver. Pichel responds with a left hook that makes the Mexican fighter back off for a moment, and Garcia measures him with a thudding right hand that makes Pichel have to blink it out repeatedly. Garcia crowds him with a pair of hooks, and he swats away a head kick. Garcia crashes through a low kick to hurl punches, and Pichel keeps a wide berth and stabs out a front kick. Garcia comes up short with haymakers, allowing the elder Pichel to potshot him from a safe distance. When Pichel kicks low, Garcia wings a right hand over the top. Pichel fires back with a vengeance, and Garcia shrugs it off and stays close in front of him but not too close. Garcia scores a single low kick and is jabbed back, and he raises his guard in the nick of time to block an overhand right. Garcia swings wide to the body, forcing Pichel to ricochet off the wall, and he hammers the front leg with a kick. Pichel loads up with a body kick, and Garcia smiles at him and continues to crowd him. Garcia pushes a front kick out of the way to crowd the older fighter, pressing him against the wall while stomping on his toes. Garcia lifts Pichel’s legs up and is about to deposit him to the ground, but Pichel regains his balance. Perhaps in a poor bit of decisionmaking, Pichel spins for a back elbow while tightly pressed to his foe, and this allows Garcia to hit a clean double on him. Garcia rides out the round on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 2
The athletes get right back down to business, trading leather early and often. Pichel sneaks in a right hand and slips to the side, and he dips to fire off an uppercut and jogs away to reset. Pichel’s stance switches and awkward movement prevents Garcia from blitzing him on the regular, and he keeps his head on a swivel to not get caught with anything flush. Garcia nevertheless walks him down and blasts him in the face with a crisp right hand, and then chains two more fists behind it. Pichel flashes out his jab, pop pop bang, to keep Garcia from going at him. Pichel pushes off while trying to push his foe’s arm out of the way, and his thumb slides deep into Garcia’s eye socket. Pichel immediately apologizes before Porrata gets between them, and he gives Garcia all the time he needs to recover. Garcia takes it, accepts Pichel’s fervent apology and gets back to walking the aging fighter down. Pichel uses his knee to frame off, and he strings a few punches together behind it. Pichel tosses up a head kick that is blocked in time, and he probes out a right hand before getting his head snapped back with a one-two. Pichel tries to jump his way forward, and he pushes off Garcia’s face and slams his shin on Garcia’s calf. Garcia grimaces and wraps Pichel up in hopes of taking him down. Pichel leans against the wall to keep himself upright, and he postures off and breaks free, where he puts punches and kicks together in rapid succession. Pichel fakes to the body to open up a head shot, and Garcia can only swing big right hands back at him. A few of those get through, and Pichel beans him with a counter overhand right to make him think twice about entering the pocket with his hands low. Pichel comes up swinging with a huge uppercut, and he hand-fights to parry most of the blows aimed at him. Pichel jabs to the head and body, and he splits the guard with a front kick, toes extended towards the target. Garcia lumbers forward swinging heavy leather, and Pichel skirts to the slide and flicks out a few low kicks to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pichel
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pichel
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pichel

Round 3
Pichel is fired up to start up the last round, and he channels that energy with frenetic punches and kicks that stop Garcia from getting through to him. Pichel strings a few punches together up top, and Garcia clutches his eye as if he was poked. Pichel claims it was a closed fist that did the damage, and he unloads with flying fists until Garcia steels himself and comes back out swinging. Pichel counters the flailing strikes, but he is taking shots to the body and taking heavy breaths. Garcia continues to put everything behind every one of his swings, while Pichel is more than content to jab and prod. When Garcia looks to charge, Pichel pushes him back with jabs and front kicks, but Garcia decides to pour it on and tags Pichel a few times. Pichel rebounds off the fencing and uses his push kick to redden up Garcia’s midsection. Pichel probers out with straight punches until getting tagged, and he starts swinging back with arc on his punches when not mixing in his front kick. Pichel further keeps things interesting by shooting for a takedown, and Garcia just stands before him and smiles at him. A Pichel front kick bumps the cup, and Garcia wants to keep going so it goes uncalled. Pichel loads up on body kicks and walks through three left hands, kicking Garcia constantly while keeping his distance. The leg kicks to the thigh and calf keep landing for “From Hell,” until Garcia is sick of taking them and just lifts Pichel up and deposits him down to the mat like a sack of potatoes. Pichel scoots his way towards the wall in hopes of walking up it, while Garcia tries to smother him and threaten with an arm-triangle choke. Pichel turns to his knees and stands, and Garcia slugs him in the face with numerous unanswered right hands. Pichel frees himself with seconds to go, and he lets Garcia have it with all his remaining energy. Punches, kicks and knees fly every which way until the final horn blares, signaling an end to what turned into an entertaining scrap.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (29-28 Garcia)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (29-28 Garcia)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (29-28 Garcia)

The Official Result
Rafa Garcia def. Vinc Pichel via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Rafa García

Connor picks García, noting his high-output, new-school wrestle-boxing style will overwhelm the aging Pichel. He acknowledges Pichel's toughness and low kicks as potential wrinkles but believes García's pace and boxing will be too much. He is surprised by the wide odds, given García's loss to Chris Gruetzemacher.

"I think Garcia is tailor made to outwork and overwhelm Pichel. Pichel is slow enough that he just doesn't get to do a lot of the stuff he wants to do anymore."

MMA Vivisection

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Rafa García

Zane picks García, agreeing that his pace and pressure will be decisive. He notes Pichel's old-school style and lack of speed, comparing him to an aged Jan Błachowicz. Zane thinks García's boxing and wrestling defense are solid, and that Pichel's low kicks are a minor threat.

"I think Garcia is tailor made to outwork and overwhelm Pichel."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Grant Dawson

TKO (elbows and punches) R2 1:42 · UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Oct 12, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Grant Dawson	0	44 of 90	48%	80 of 144	2 of 4	50%	0	0	5:09
Rafa García	0	5 of 12	41%	29 of 38	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Grant Dawson	20 of 52	38%	41 of 87	1 of 3	33%	3:50
1	Rafa García	4 of 10	40%	27 of 34	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Grant Dawson	24 of 38	63%	39 of 57	1 of 1	100%	1:19
2	Rafa García	1 of 2	50%	2 of 4	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Grant Dawson	44 of 90	48%	38 of 76	4 of 12	2 of 2	5 of 24	0 of 0	39 of 66
Rafa García	5 of 12	41%	4 of 8	1 of 4	0 of 0	4 of 11	1 of 1	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Grant Dawson	20 of 52	38%	16 of 42	3 of 9	1 of 1	2 of 17	0 of 0	18 of 35
1	Rafa García	4 of 10	40%	3 of 6	1 of 4	0 of 0	3 of 9	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Grant Dawson	24 of 38	63%	22 of 34	1 of 3	1 of 1	3 of 7	0 of 0	21 of 31
2	Rafa García	1 of 2	50%	1 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Grant Dawson vs. Rafa Garcia
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dawson (-395), Garcia (+310)

Round 1
Moving right along, lightweight contender Dawson (21-2-1, 9-1-1 UFC) needs this next opportunity to put together a win streak. To do so, he will need to get past Mexico’s Garcia (16-3, 4-3 UFC), who will not make it easy on him. Referee Chris Tognoni checks in as the cage commander for this 155-pound contest, and it kicks off with a glove touch. Garcia crouches several times early, expecting to have to defend against a level change. Dawson meets one of those with a front kick, and Garcia just barely dodges it. Garcia avoids another jabbing kick to throw out a one-two to the body. Dawson sticks him with a jab and uses another front kick, and he parries an overhand right. Dawson gets knocked off-balance with a right hand, and he gathers himself and spins with a wheel kick. Garcia walks forward slinging hands, and Dawson answers a solid right hand with a single-leg entry that plants “Gifted” on his knee. Dawson hits a mat return when Garcia powers his way back up, and this time he has Garcia flat on his back. Dawson opens with ground-and-pound and is answered some from Garcia, and Garcia’s hit the back of his foe’s head as Tognoni asks him not to land fouls. Dawson sits up to hammer Garcia with two big punches, an elbow and some other ground strikes to disguise his guard pass to half guard. Dawson stays busy with smothering top control and active offense, getting hard shots in when not attempting to advance position. Dawson gets pushed back for a moment, and he bowls Garcia back over with elbows. “KGD” shifts from one side to the other to pass the guard, and he pounds down with strikes. Garcia kicks him off to gain a bit of space, only for Dawson to swarm him with standing-to-ground punches. Garcia scrambles madly until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dawson

Round 2
The fighters clap hands to get going, and Dawson is eager to kick things off by kicking four times with four different types of kicks. His spin kick finds its home, and he uses that to get in close, swing an overhand right and duck low to secure an easy takedown less than 30 seconds into the round. Dawson finds openings and attacks with hammerfists or elbows, and he takes a chunk out of Garcia’s forehead with a Friday the 13th-insired slashing elbow. Blood sprays from the Mexican’s head as he turns to his knees, and Dawson further beats on him with a barrage of punches.
Sitting proudly in mount, “KGD” unleashes a mighty barrage of punches and elbows, clubbing Garcia as Tognoni asks Garcia to fight back. Dawson knows the finish is around the corner, with Garcia bloodied and bruised, and he finishes the job with a final salvo of punches. Tognoni has no choice to step in
, and the American Top Team contender notches his first knockout in nearly three years. In victory, Dawson becomes the first fighter to ever stop the durable man from Mexican.

The Official Result
Grant Dawson def. Rafa Garcia R2 1:42 via TKO (Elbows and Punches)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Grant Dawson

Angelo picks Grant Dawson despite disliking his fighting style. He notes that Dawson's wrestling and control are reliable, and that Rafa García tends to gas. Angelo acknowledges Dawson's knockout loss to Bobby Green but believes Dawson will win by grinding out a decision. He calls Dawson a reliable bettor's fighter.

"Grant Dawson probably wins this fight... he's somebody that you can rely on."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Grant Dawson

Big Brady picks Grant Dawson to win by third-round submission. He considers Dawson a top-15 lightweight with top-10 upside, and believes he is on another level compared to Garcia. He praises Dawson's wrestling and grappling, citing his submission of Jared Gordon and dominant win over Damir Ismagulov. He expects Dawson to get takedowns, wear on Garcia, and eventually find a submission in the second or third round. He thinks Garcia is solid but outmatched.

Dawson by third-round submission

"give me Dawson here you give me Dawson to win this fight by third round submission"

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Grant Dawson

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Garcia's game is subtractive but not potent enough to stop Dawson's relentless wrestling. He notes that Garcia's wins over wrestlers like Clay Guida are not indicative because Guida is washed. Connor believes Dawson's suffocating style will eventually get the takedown and control the fight.

Same odds commentary.

"Dawson really insists on a suffocating wrestle grappling game and it's really hard to just take that away when you're not doing something that is killing him."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Grant Dawson

Daniel admits he dislikes Dawson's style and believes his striking is elementary, but he respects Dawson's grappling and top control. He notes that Rafa García has decent takedown defense but thinks Dawson will likely grind out a boring decision. Daniel hopes García stuffs takedowns and wins, but his head says Dawson's wrestling will be the difference.

"All emotions and biases aside, then Grant Dawson probably grinds two of the three rounds out and we hate ourselves for watching the fight."

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Grant Dawson

Dawson does not care to entertain but gets wins. He will do what he did to Joe Solecki last time. Garcia may stop the first couple takedowns, but Dawson's great gas tank will wear on Garcia, allowing Dawson to win a classic Dawson decision.

"Dawson has a great gas tank and I think that will eventually wear on Garcia allowing Dawson to pull off a classic Dawson decision"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Grant Dawson

The MMA Guru picks Grant Dawson, citing his phenomenal grappling and talent advantage over Rafa García, who he says has no finishing potential. He notes Dawson's suspect chin and poor stand-up but believes his grappling will easily outclass García. He also mentions Dawson's momentum coming off a win and training with Makhachev.

"I'm going to go Grant Dawson... his grappling is phenomenal and really good and there is Talent there"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Grant Dawson

Zane picks Dawson because Garcia's anti-wrestling is based on defense and he isn't dangerous enough to keep Dawson off him. He notes that Garcia's best chance is to stuff takedowns early and tire Dawson, but Dawson often wins even after gassing. Zane thinks Garcia's lack of finishing ability means he can't overcome Dawson's pressure.

Dawson opened at -373, now -410; Garcia opened at +304, now +328.

"I gotta pick grant dawson. Unfortunately."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Clay Guida

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Rafa García	0	63 of 252	25%	63 of 252	0 of 3	0%	0	0	0:00
Clay Guida	0	141 of 287	49%	143 of 289	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:20

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Rafa García	23 of 92	25%	23 of 92	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Clay Guida	34 of 89	38%	34 of 89	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Rafa García	21 of 88	23%	21 of 88	0 of 1	0%	0:00
2	Clay Guida	65 of 110	59%	65 of 110	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Rafa García	19 of 72	26%	19 of 72	0 of 2	0%	0:00
3	Clay Guida	42 of 88	47%	44 of 90	0 of 1	0%	0:20

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Rafa García	63 of 252	25%	49 of 227	4 of 12	10 of 13	63 of 252	0 of 0	0 of 0
Clay Guida	141 of 287	49%	130 of 269	5 of 12	6 of 6	138 of 284	3 of 3	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Rafa García	23 of 92	25%	16 of 82	2 of 4	5 of 6	23 of 92	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Clay Guida	34 of 89	38%	29 of 81	1 of 4	4 of 4	34 of 89	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Rafa García	21 of 88	23%	17 of 80	1 of 4	3 of 4	21 of 88	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Clay Guida	65 of 110	59%	63 of 107	2 of 3	0 of 0	62 of 107	3 of 3	0 of 0
3	Rafa García	19 of 72	26%	16 of 65	1 of 4	2 of 3	19 of 72	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Clay Guida	42 of 88	47%	38 of 81	2 of 5	2 of 2	42 of 88	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Rafa Garcia vs. Clay Guida
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-260), Guida (+220)

Round 1
The main card opens up with the lightweights, as eternally youthful 41-year-old Guida (38-22, 18-16 UFC) looks to go on his first win streak in six years. Standing in his way will be Combate Americas vet Garcia (14-3, 3-3 UFC), who also happens to be 13 years his junior. Whether this is a passing of the torch fight or proof that the now short-haired Guida very much still has it, they have 15 minutes to determine this while referee Dwayne Bess watches on. There is no plan for a bump of fists as the crowd goes crazy for Guida, and he starts off like he always does, with herky-jerky movement and plenty of energy. The two fighters meet right in the middle, throwing hands, and Guida gets the better of the exchange. Guida ducks a huge overhand right to stick him with a right, and he considers a takedown to mix things up. Garcia scores a right hand, and Guida slips and backs off to take a low kick. Guida returns fire with a leg kick, and Garcia quickly covers with a right over the top. Guida chains a low kick into punches, and Garcia backs him off with solid straight right hands. Guida circles along the outside, and he evades a one-two that soars at him. Guida lands a left and moves, and he swipes out with a left hand as Garcia reaches him with the right. Garcia rushes forward with a left to the ribs, and he misses the mark swinging a few hooks. Guida absorbs a flush leg kick at the end of a combination, and he gets tagged with a solid right to follow. They meet with jabs, and “Gifted” bestows Guida with a gift of a left hook. Guida bobs and moves in, and Garcia marks him up with five or six jabs in rapid succession. Guida’s nose is showing some damage from the punches, and Garcia clubs him with a right that lands on the jaw. Garcia counters with a sharp elbow, and Guida is eating shots every time he initiates his offense. Guida lands two punches coming in, and Garcia snaps out a jab at the end. Garcia’s jabs begin to sting Guida and make him smile, and the round ends after a pair of missed haymakers from both fighters.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 2
Guida races out of his corner to start off firing, and he sticks several jabs in then face of his opponent. Guida gets rocked with an uppercut, and he shakes it out and slaps down with a leg kick. Guida steps in with a knee, and he closes in on the clinch but does not change levels. A few punches from “The Carpenter” bounce off the guard, while a low kick does score. Garcia is timing uppercuts when Guida ducks or bobs, and chants for “Let’s go Guida” energize him slightly but do not change his strategy. Garcia nails his foe with a few right hands, and Guida catches him with a clean right in response before ducking into a single. Garcia stands him up and meets him with an elbow, and his jab is doing work. Guida shakes his head repeatedly when absorbing this blow again and again, but he cannot seem to get around it as his face bleeds out of multiple cuts. Guida checks a kick but gets tagged up top, and they trade punches with Garcia getting the better of them. Garcia knocks Guida’s mouthpiece out, and the veteran goes to retrieve it and continues to work towards Garcia. Guida does land a solid right, but Garcia is doing work with punches in bunches. Guida takes his foot off the gas to stop walking into so many jabs, and he adjusts his approach by not throwing as much to get countered. Guida punches his way into range, but Garcia reaches him with a few straight rights. Garcia rings Guida’s bell with a pair of straight shots, and Guida takes them on the chin and keeps coming forward. Garcia paws out with jabs to keep Guida at bay, and he allows Guida to throw with impunity as he tags him with right hands. A big right from Garcia ends the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 3
Like usual, Guida engages face-first in his approach. Garcia counters with a right over the top, and Guida counters with a head kick and takedown effort. Garcia shuts it down and gets popped with a few left hooks. “Gifted” intercepts Guida with an uppercut as Guida changes levels, and he lumbers forward throwing shots that Guida dodges. Guida connects with a left, a right and a low kick, and Garcia backpedals. Garcia loads up on an elbow that whizzes past Guida’s head, and he gets caught with a left as Guida is moving constantly. Garcia darts in with a left hook, and Guida ties him up and eats a few body shots before getting shoved back. Guida lands three punches up top as Garcia backs off with a right, and they trade punches while standing right in front of one another. Guida launches a head kick that gets blocked, and Garcia shells up and makes him pay with a few uppercuts. Garcia jabs to the body, and he swings and misses with a high kick in hopes of catching Guida barreling down on him. Guida gets his chin checked by a powerful right hook at the end of a string of punches, and the veteran shake it off and does not falter. Guida walks into a right hand as he tries to push the action, and he guard against a head kick. Garcia chains a few punches together, and he rocks Guida with a right hand as Guida staggers to the side. Garcia bloodies Guida up further as he drives jab after piston-like jab into the face, and Guida checks the sight of his blood and shoots for a takedown. Garcia escapes the grip and drills Guida with two more punches. Garcia leaps in the air with a knee, and Guida is out of the way but also out of time. The last round comes to an end, and the lightweights hug it out after 15 minutes of striking. When the dust settles, Guida takes his gloves off and holds them to earn an interview with Daniel Cormier. He does not hang them up, instead saying he will keep fighting, and asks to trade gloves with his opponent. This is the second fighter to do a retirement fake-out tonight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)

The Official Result
Rafa Garcia def. Clay Guida via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Rafa García

Angelo picks Rafa García, expecting him to get takedowns and win striking exchanges. He notes García's grappling and power, but also his cardio issues. He is not betting on García at -190 because the odds are too high, especially against a relentless pressure fighter like Guida who could expose cardio issues.

"half is going to be the pick I'm not gonna bet on him I just don't like those odds"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Rafa García

Big Brady picks Rafa García to win by first-round submission. He highlights García's improved cardio and grappling since moving to Elevation Fight Team, and notes Guida's age (41) and history of being submitted (11 times). He expects García to take Guida down and submit him early.

first round submission

"I like Garcia to win this fight by first round submission"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Rafa García

Cody sees Garcia as a younger, better version of Guida with pressure wrestling and improving skills. He thinks Garcia's clinch strength and cardio will overwhelm the aging Guida. He acknowledges the line is steep but believes Garcia wins.

"gotta go with Rafa Garcia"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Rafa García

Connor also picks Garcia, agreeing that Guida's style is not threatening enough to stop Garcia's forward pressure. He notes that Guida is more evasive than aggressive at this stage, and Garcia's willingness to keep working even when takedowns fail will be key. Connor believes Garcia's youth and activity will overwhelm the 41-year-old Guida.

"I got to take Rafa Garcia."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Rafa García

Garcia is younger and entering his prime, while Guida's recent wins are over older or retiring fighters. Garcia's boxing and forward pressure should outwork Guida, though Guida's cardio and grinding style could make it close. Garcia's ability to mix in takedowns and maintain pace should earn him a decision victory.

Over 2.5 rounds

"I expect him to land the better and more significant strikes in the early goings of this fight maybe not put clay Guido away but do enough to win a decision."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Clay Guida

Paul is intrigued by Guida's plus money, noting Guida's takedown defense (only 2 takedowns allowed in 14 fights) and the possibility of a close decision. He thinks Garcia's takedown totals may be inflated and that Guida could grind out a win. He placed a small bet on Guida.

Small bet on Guida moneyline; also considering Guida by split decision prop

"I'm leaning towards clay just because of the money line we'll see where the where it goes I added a little bit of plus 210 really really small little play"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Rafa García

The MMA Guru picks Rafa García, citing his youth (28), well-rounded skills, and potential to finish the 41-year-old Guida. He believes García will corner Guida and put an end to his recent string of close decisions. He notes Guida's durability and movement but thinks García's prime and power will prevail.

García wins by finish (KO/TKO)

"Rafa Garcia gets the job done"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Rafa García

Zane picks Garcia, noting that Guida's recent win over Scott Holtzman was unimpressive and that Garcia's relentless pressure and wrestling will be too much. He acknowledges that Garcia can struggle if his takedowns are stuffed, but believes Guida's lack of offensive pressure and age will allow Garcia to implement his game plan. Zane expects Garcia to push forward, land punches, and mix in takedowns.

Garcia opened -250/-230, now -245; Guida opened +200, now +213. Zane does not mention betting.

"I'm picking Rafa Garcia. This is not a hard fight to pick."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Maheshate

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Dec 17, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Rafa García	0	49 of 98	50%	79 of 138	6 of 11	54%	0	0	6:10
Maheshate	0	25 of 141	17%	30 of 148	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Rafa García	16 of 29	55%	16 of 31	0 of 2	0%	0:29
1	Maheshate	11 of 62	17%	11 of 63	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Rafa García	13 of 36	36%	27 of 54	3 of 4	75%	2:26
2	Maheshate	8 of 52	15%	8 of 52	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Rafa García	20 of 33	60%	36 of 53	3 of 5	60%	3:15
3	Maheshate	6 of 27	22%	11 of 33	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Rafa García	49 of 98	50%	29 of 70	11 of 17	9 of 11	28 of 64	11 of 13	10 of 21
Maheshate	25 of 141	17%	16 of 110	8 of 29	1 of 2	23 of 138	1 of 2	1 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Rafa García	16 of 29	55%	8 of 17	6 of 9	2 of 3	15 of 28	1 of 1	0 of 0
1	Maheshate	11 of 62	17%	7 of 47	3 of 14	1 of 1	10 of 60	1 of 2	0 of 0
2	Rafa García	13 of 36	36%	8 of 28	3 of 6	2 of 2	6 of 20	5 of 6	2 of 10
2	Maheshate	8 of 52	15%	5 of 42	3 of 10	0 of 0	8 of 52	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Rafa García	20 of 33	60%	13 of 25	2 of 2	5 of 6	7 of 16	5 of 6	8 of 11
3	Maheshate	6 of 27	22%	4 of 21	2 of 5	0 of 1	5 of 26	0 of 0	1 of 1

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Rafa García

Angelo picks Rafa García, noting that Maheshate gets taken down easily and Rafa has 18 takedowns in his last four fights. He likes Rafa's chin and offensive grappling to get the job done. He mentions the line has flipped from Maheshate being favorite to near even money, and he has already placed a moneyline bet on Rafa for premium members.

Has a moneyline bet on Rafa García; notes line movement

"I like Rafa here I think mahasete is definitely dangerous but he also gets taken down easily and Rafa Garcia has 18 takedowns in his last four fights"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Rafa García

Big Brady picks Rafa García but is very hesitant due to lack of information on Maheshate. He notes García's path to victory is takedowns, but his top control is poor and he has cardio issues. Maheshate has a size advantage and may have improved takedown defense. Brady says it's a tough fight to call and he's staying away from betting, but leans García by decision.

"I am going to take Rafa Garcia to go out there um mixing takedowns and win a decision in this one"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Rafa García

Cody picks Garcia, noting his grinding style and cardio improvements. He thinks Garcia will take Maheshate down and grind him out. He notes Maheshate is a slow starter and Garcia has a good chin. He expects a decision win for Garcia.

Garcia by decision

"Rafa Garcia again I'm leading towards another decision on this one... gotta go with Rafa Garcia"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Rafa García

Connor picks Garcia, noting he is the well-rounded fighter and should win if he wrestles. He thinks Garcia is tough and can out-wrestle Maheshate, whose defensive wrestling is questionable. He acknowledges Garcia can lose random fights but expects him to win.

"I'll take garcia. That seems like enough"

MMA Vivisection

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Maheshate

Paul picks Maheshate as an underdog, noting his size and striking skills. He is concerned about Garcia's takedowns but thinks Maheshate can land a big shot. He sees value at plus money and is willing to take a shot. He makes it a Shoei bet with Cody.

"I'm gonna back my guy my shot the market is working its way away from me at this point... I'll take your two to one on this uh this whole Shoei operation uh I'll take my shot you get Rafa …"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Rafa García

The MMA Guru picks Rafa García over Hayisaer Maheshate, going against the majority. He notes García's close fight with Jai Herbert and his submission win over Genesis Ronson. He questions Maheshate's competition and KO rate, pointing out that Maheshate took a decision against a 10-15 opponent. He expects García to pressure with a good chin and mix in grappling, potentially getting a late submission or decision win. He also mentions that Maheshate lost to a grappler in M1.

"I'm going half a Garcia here"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Maheshate

Zane picks Maheshate as a random chance pick, partly to avoid being mocked by a Twitter account he thinks might be Maheshate. He admits Garcia should win but thinks Maheshate could knock him out early. He notes Maheshate has good timing and hand speed.

"I'll take mahashate just because I don't want him to make fun of me again"

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Drakkar Klose

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Jul 30, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Drakkar Klose	0	61 of 115	53%	111 of 175	2 of 10	20%	0	0	2:05
Rafa García	0	34 of 57	59%	83 of 111	3 of 11	27%	0	0	2:54

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Drakkar Klose	19 of 30	63%	33 of 53	2 of 7	28%	1:49
1	Rafa García	13 of 22	59%	21 of 30	0 of 1	0%	0:06
2	Drakkar Klose	14 of 29	48%	35 of 51	0 of 2	0%	0:16
2	Rafa García	5 of 12	41%	33 of 45	2 of 4	50%	2:11
3	Drakkar Klose	28 of 56	50%	43 of 71	0 of 1	0%	0:00
3	Rafa García	16 of 23	69%	29 of 36	1 of 6	16%	0:37

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Drakkar Klose	61 of 115	53%	24 of 75	27 of 29	10 of 11	32 of 83	24 of 25	5 of 7
Rafa García	34 of 57	59%	23 of 45	8 of 8	3 of 4	23 of 44	11 of 13	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Drakkar Klose	19 of 30	63%	7 of 17	9 of 10	3 of 3	9 of 18	7 of 8	3 of 4
1	Rafa García	13 of 22	59%	9 of 18	2 of 2	2 of 2	9 of 17	4 of 5	0 of 0
2	Drakkar Klose	14 of 29	48%	5 of 18	6 of 7	3 of 4	7 of 21	5 of 5	2 of 3
2	Rafa García	5 of 12	41%	1 of 8	3 of 3	1 of 1	4 of 11	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Drakkar Klose	28 of 56	50%	12 of 40	12 of 12	4 of 4	16 of 44	12 of 12	0 of 0
3	Rafa García	16 of 23	69%	13 of 19	3 of 3	0 of 1	10 of 16	6 of 7	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Rafa Garcia vs. Drakkar Klose
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Klose (-230), Garcia (+195)

Round 1
Opening up the ABC- and ESPN-aired prelims is what should be a fun lightweight matchup, even if Klose (12-2-1, 6-2 UFC) is now battling late replacement Garcia (13-2, 2-2 UFC). Both fighters prevailed on the same event in April, locking down second-round finishes of Brandon Jenkins and Jesse Ronson, respectively, so the “Matches to Make” choice appeared to be an easy one. They touch ‘em up with referee Jacob Rosales watching on, and Klose claims the center of the cage but is nowhere close to his opponent. Garcia stays on the outer edge of the cage as Klose feints with jabs, and the first strike is actually a stomping kick to the knee from Klose. Klose kicks on the inside and outside of the leg, and Garcia swarms him with an overhand right that bowls him over – not from it actually hitting him hard, but from Garcia’s body tackling him down. Klose gets back up and starts working the calf, until Garcia closes the distance and aims punches to the body. The American greets him with knees until they split up, and Klose fakes a body kick and rips one on the other side before tying Garcia up. Klose effectively uses the calf kick to decent effect, as Garcia powers through it to club Klose in the chops with a left. Klose staggers back and tries to give one back, but Garcia is smooth on the outside as he kicks the knee and nearly buckles it. Klose gives chases, and in an ensuing clinch, they throw short punches one after the other. Klose forces a separation, with his legs appearing to be fully back under him again, and he walks Garcia down and measures a jab. When “Gifted” bites on it, Klose changes levels. Klose is unable to get the first takedown try, but Garcia turns around and gives up his back. This allows Klose to trip him out and plant Garcia on his face for a moment. Garcia powers his way back up, and he grabs the fence to keep himself balanced as Klose attempts a mat return. Klose trips Garcia’s left leg out beneath him again to plant him down, and he starts slugging away on Garcia. “Gifted” checks his face to make sure he is not bleeding, and when he does, Klose sucks his leg out and makes it so Garcia cannot simply power his way back up as easily as before. Garcia rolls for a leglock, and Klose breaks it up before anything can come from it. When they both get to their knees, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Klose
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Klose
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Klose

Round 2
Klose races out of his corner to start the next round, and he plants a wheel kick upside Garcia’s head before shooting for a takedown in the first 10 seconds. Garcia stuffs it but absorbs a few knees to the body when Klose bails on it, and Garcia powers his way out to the center of the Octagon. The lightweights feint and fake their way towards one another, with Klose employing his stomp kick and swinging his shin to the body. Garcia dips back and absorbs a glancing right hand, but he is no worse for wear. Klose lets go with a body kick, and Garcia cannot pin him down or trap him to land with impunity. Garcia begins to chop the legs down a few times, and Klose switches stance after absorbing the blows. Garcia winds up on a right hook, but Klose dips back and answers with a short left. Garcia, using his momentum in his favor, pushes through and knocks Klose off his feet with a double. “Gifted” gives Klose several gifts in the form of his fists, before stepping into half guard. The posture remains tight as Garcia does not want to give up any space or allow a sweep or any bucking movement, but this also results in a stalemate. The crowd is not a fan of this nullifying half guard for Garcia, and Klose moves his head around to dodge punches before Montalvo steps in to stand them up. Garcia shoots the second they get stood up, and Klose staves it off and connects with a solid left hand. As Garcia aims a right hand over the top, Klose ducks down for a possible takedown entry, and Garcia snatches this up to hunt for a standing guillotine choke. There is nothing to it, and Klose shucks it off and absorbs the end of a left hand. Garcia misses with a spinning back kick, and Klose is suddenly energized and he charges in with his head in the air to throw bombs. Garcia retreats, and he weathers the storm before scooping Klose’s legs out and planting him down to the ground. A few punches for the fighter out of Mexico land before the horn resounds in the arena.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 3
Klose is the initial aggressor to start off the final round, pushing the pace and sticking his hands out to back Garcia off. The Michigan native jabs and makes Garcia dip down right into a head kick, and Garcia tanks it without budging. Garcia hunts for a takedown, and he redoubles his effort with a double that takes Klose off his feet. Klose threatens with a guillotine choke off his back, but with the cage behind him, there is no leverage to secure anything, and Garcia is comfortable without concern. Klose explodes back to his feet, and he throws hands to again force Garcia to back from one side of the cage to another. Klose allows Garcia to come at him so that he can set up a clinch in his favor, where he slams knees and punches into Garcia’s body. Klose senses that Garcia is fatiguing, and he strides forward without a care in the world, targeting the midsection and preparing to stuff takedowns. Klose gets Garcia’s attention with a low kick, and he has a clubbing right slide off the shoulder into the chin. Garcia’s hands largely drop by his waist, waiting for Klose to close the distance, so that he can lift them and sling something heavy. He has a thudding left connect cleanly, but Klose totally ignores it so that he can do more work to the body. Klose ties his man up after a failed takedown entry so that he can batter the body with punches and the occasional knee. Klose changes this up with his own takedown try, and Garcia pushes him off and backpedals. Garcia shoots for a single, and Klose gets shoved back to the wall and knees the ribs a few times to conclude the fight. Both men raise their hands after 15 minutes of combat, and some will almost certainly attempt the joke that the Klose fight was a close fight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Klose (29-28 Klose)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Klose (29-28 Klose)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Klose (29-28 Klose)

The Official Result
Drakkar Klose def. Rafa Garcia via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Drakkar Klose

Big Brady picks Drakkar Klose to win by decision. He notes Garcia is on short notice and has cardio concerns, while Klose has fought much better competition. He expects the first round to be competitive but Klose's striking volume and takedown defense will carry him in later rounds. He mentions Garcia has never been knocked out, so a decision is likely.

"i like close to win here... i think he outstrikes garcia on the feet rounds two in rounds three and ultimately picks up a decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Drakkar Klose

Cody picks Klose, noting his technical striking, forward pressure, and solid takedown defense. He thinks Garcia's wrestling won't be a factor because Klose will stop takedowns and win the striking exchanges. He mentions that Klose's cardio is solid and that Garcia is limited and loopy with his strikes. He also notes that Klose's significant strikes over 60.5 is a good prop on PrizePicks.

Klose over 60.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks

"i think close is just going to win the striking exchanges from distance stop the takedowns keep it standing and just rinse and repeat"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Drakkar Klose

Daniel picks Klose to win another close decision, noting that most of his fights are 29-28. He thinks Klose finds a way to edge out rounds, whether by calf kicks or a late takedown. He acknowledges Garcia's toughness and Mexican warrior spirit, but thinks Garcia's cardio issues (from the Gritzmacher fight) could be a factor. However, he calls the -205 price too high for a fighter who usually wins close fights, so he passes on betting.

"I'm gonna go Drakkar Klose to win another 29-28 decision."

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)

Drakkar Klose

Preet picks Klose by decision, expecting him to push Garcia against the cage, use leg kicks, and control the fight. He notes Klose's efficient style and that Garcia's cardio fades, leading to Klose taking over in the second and third rounds. He passes on the moneyline due to Klose's tendency to fight close decisions.

"i'll go close here uh close to your decision"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Drakkar Klose

Paul picks Klose, citing his technical striking and good wrestling. He notes that Klose's losses are to very good fighters and that he looked great in his last fight against Brandon Jenkins. He thinks Garcia's wrestling won't be enough and that Klose will win the striking exchanges. He also mentions that Klose's takedown defense is solid and that Garcia is limited.

Klose over 60.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks

"gotta have to go with uh dracar close... the one thing that's always going to worry me about this guy for the rest of his foreseeable career is uh jeremy stevens almost ended his career"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)

Drakkar Klose

The MMA Guru predicts Drakkar Klose wins by 30-27 unanimous decision. He sees Klose as more technical and smart, landing calf kicks and body shots at range. Rafa García is tough but too one-dimensional. Klose will edge each round, possibly earning a 10-8 in the third.

unanimous decision

"dracar close gets this one done edging out every round"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Jesse Ronson

Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 4:50 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. Muhammad 2 · Apr 16, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Rafa García	0	35 of 80	43%	73 of 126	3 of 4	75%	1	0	4:37
Jesse Ronson	0	25 of 61	40%	28 of 64	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:02

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Rafa García	26 of 64	40%	32 of 73	1 of 2	50%	0	0:35
1	Jesse Ronson	23 of 52	44%	25 of 54	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Rafa García	9 of 16	56%	41 of 53	2 of 2	100%	1	4:02
2	Jesse Ronson	2 of 9	22%	3 of 10	0 of 1	0%	0	0:02

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Rafa García	35 of 80	43%	31 of 76	3 of 3	1 of 1	26 of 70	1 of 1	8 of 9
Jesse Ronson	25 of 61	40%	13 of 48	6 of 7	6 of 6	25 of 60	0 of 1	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Rafa García	26 of 64	40%	23 of 61	3 of 3	0 of 0	25 of 63	1 of 1	0 of 0
1	Jesse Ronson	23 of 52	44%	13 of 41	5 of 6	5 of 5	23 of 52	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Rafa García	9 of 16	56%	8 of 15	0 of 0	1 of 1	1 of 7	0 of 0	8 of 9
2	Jesse Ronson	2 of 9	22%	0 of 7	1 of 1	1 of 1	2 of 8	0 of 1	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Rafa Garcia vs. Jesse Ronson

Round 1
Lightweights take the stage as we move along the prelims, as Canada’s Ronson (21-10, 1 NC; 0-3, 1 NC UFC) will try to earn his first victory inside the Octagon in his fifth try. He will face “Gifted” Garcia (12-2, 1-2 UFC) out of Mexico in a battle of North American nations. Drawing the charge is referee Mark Smith, who hopes that what happened in the last fight takes place in this one. There is no glove touch, and instead the two fighters start trading in a hurry. Garcia lands with a solid right hand, and Ronson gets off an inside leg kick. As Ronson comes forward, Garcia acts as a matador and actually tosses Ronson down to the canvas. He does not pounce, allowing the Canadian to get back up, and they throw hands again. Garcia lines up his right hand, and Ronson is just able to get out of harm’s way each time. As Ronson advances, Garcia clubs him with this right, and Ronson shakes it off and tries to pay him back. The lightweight go tit-for-tat, with one landing, the other replying, and the first swinging back. Ronson jabs down the middle, and Garcia swings back at him with a more varied approach. A faked ankle pick from Garcia allows him to wing an overhand right, and Ronson rolls through it and comes right back. “The Body Snatcher” connects with a swiping kick to the body, and he tries to throw another only for the leg to get caught. Garcia swings him down to the ground, and Ronson scrambles right back up. When they are tied up, “Gifted” gives him man several gifts in the form of surprisingly powerful foot stomps, which lead to Ronson exploding out of the position. As Ronson recovers, Garcia shoots through his hips and plants him on the ground with a clean double. Ronson once more hops back up to his feet without being grounded for long, and when he stands, Garcia drills him in the face. Ronson does not stop moving forward, and Garcia lays into him and lands flush. Ronson powers straight ahead, landing with a few clean punches, and concluding the round with a low kick on the rear leg of his foe.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 2
The fighters march out of their corners, and they are quick to engage. Ronson marks Garcia up with a few punches, and Garcia comes forward to hit a takedown. The Canadian scrambles, and he works his way up to a knee. Before getting up, Garcia nails Ronson with an illegal knee, and Smith recognizes this instantly and lets out a heavy sigh as there is now nonsense in this fight too. Smith calls in the doctor to assess Ronson from the foul, and Ronson is a little wobbly but he informs the doctor that he is ready to continue. Smith properly deducts one point from Garcia for the foul, and he resumes the action. “Gifted” surges forward in pursuit of a takedown, and he drags Ronson right back down to the ground. Ronson scoots his way to the fence, and back up to a knee, but this time Garcia is not interested in landing knees as he wants to take his back instead. Garcia cannot lock up a choke, and as he pursues one, Ronson falls to his back to free up his neck. The Mexican fighter set up an arm-triangle choke from the guard, and he bails on it when he attempts to pass guard. Garcia hops over to half guard, where he starts hammering down with punches. Garcia grinds on top as his punches slow, keeping Ronson tightly pressed down to the ground. Ronson too holds on tight from below, in hopes of a standup or to at least stop Garcia from landing strikes. Garcia slowly works Ronson with several right hands, forcing Ronson to turn over. As Ronson tries to slide out the back door, Garcia grabs hold of his back and gets a hook in. Ronson turns to his knees and tries to buck Garcia off of him, but Garcia postures up and smacks Ronson upside the head.
The punches make Ronson adjust briefly, allowing “Gifted” Garcia the slightest of opportunities to slip his arm beneath the chin and lock up a rear-naked choke. It is all he needs, as he cinches the choke tight, and Ronson taps almost instantly as it is academic and he would be out seconds later.
That is one way to take the judges out of the equation, after Garcia lost a point a few minutes ago.

The Official Result
Rafa Garcia def. Jesse Ronson R2 4:50 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Rafa García

Angelo picks Rafa García confidently, calling it a clear pick. He notes that García has more power, better ground game, and is dangerous everywhere. He mentions that Jesse Ronson may be more technical but has chin issues, and García hits like a truck for the weight class. He is surprised García is only a slight favorite and plans to bet the moneyline at -120 before the line moves.

moneyline bet at -120

"this is a clear pick for me i love hasag hafa garcia here and i'm going to throw a moneyline bet on him before this line moves because you know frankly i'm loving him at the minus 120 price point"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Jesse Ronson

Big Brady slightly picks Jesse Ronson to win by close decision. He notes Ronson has better striking and cardio, while García has good wrestling but questionable cardio. He expects García to slow down as the fight goes on, allowing Ronson to take over late. He calls it a very close fight and says he won't bet on it.

"i will take jesse ronson slightly and i'll take him to win by a very close and competitive decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Jesse Ronson

Cody picks Ronson, citing his technical striking and experience. He notes Garcia's struggles at 155 and the weight jump to 170. He thinks Ronson's sharpness and durability will be key, and calls him a live underdog.

"gotta go jesse ronson's dog money"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert picked Apr 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Daniel Levi has no clear pick, calling it a question of which version of Jesse Ronson shows up. If Ronson is the seasoned vet who has fought elite competition (Michel Prazeres, Kevin Lee) and is clean from his suspension, he picks Ronson. If Ronson is washed up, he picks Garcia. He notes Garcia is tough and gritty but has faced lower-level competition and was finished by Chris Gruetzemacher after gassing. Levi is uncertain and passes.

"Both guys at their best I got jesse ronson it's just are we getting both guys at their best that's the big question."

Half the Battle

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Jesse Ronson

Paul leans towards Ronson after hearing Cody's analysis. He notes Ronson's technical striking and experience, and thinks Garcia may struggle moving up to 170. He plans to add Ronson to his card.

"i'm gonna add ronson to the card"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Rafa García

The MMA Guru picks Rafa García due to Jesse Ronson's inactivity and age (36). He notes García's activity and visible improvements, and believes Ronson has regressed during his time off. He expects García to win a 29-28 decision in a fun scrap.

unanimous decision 29-28

"half of garcia gets this one done plus ronson's been injured on in his time off as well"

THE MMA GURU

View all 11 fights

Alexander Hernandez - Fight History

LOSS vs Rafa García

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · Apr 25, 2026

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Rafa García	0	59 of 169	34%	79 of 194	4 of 7	57%	0	0	1:50
Alexander Hernandez	0	50 of 145	34%	54 of 149	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Rafa García	10 of 40	25%	15 of 45	2 of 2	100%	0:28
1	Alexander Hernandez	8 of 27	29%	8 of 27	0 of 1	0%	0:00
2	Rafa García	20 of 66	30%	20 of 66	0 of 1	0%	0:10
2	Alexander Hernandez	18 of 38	47%	18 of 38	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Rafa García	29 of 63	46%	44 of 83	2 of 4	50%	1:12
3	Alexander Hernandez	24 of 80	30%	28 of 84	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Rafa García	59 of 169	34%	52 of 161	1 of 2	6 of 6	57 of 165	2 of 3	0 of 1
Alexander Hernandez	50 of 145	34%	40 of 126	9 of 14	1 of 5	50 of 145	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Rafa García	10 of 40	25%	6 of 36	0 of 0	4 of 4	10 of 39	0 of 0	0 of 1
1	Alexander Hernandez	8 of 27	29%	5 of 20	3 of 4	0 of 3	8 of 27	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Rafa García	20 of 66	30%	19 of 65	0 of 0	1 of 1	19 of 65	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Alexander Hernandez	18 of 38	47%	14 of 32	3 of 4	1 of 2	18 of 38	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Rafa García	29 of 63	46%	27 of 60	1 of 2	1 of 1	28 of 61	1 of 2	0 of 0
3	Alexander Hernandez	24 of 80	30%	21 of 74	3 of 6	0 of 0	24 of 80	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

"Alexander Hernandez is the better fighter, so he's the pick. I just need him to actually pull the trigger."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Rafa García

García wins by decision

"I'm going to take Garcia Garcia by decision."

DFS by the Numbers

Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2026 (fight day)

Rafa García

Garcia +3.5 rounds; fight likely goes to decision; great for live betting

"I will be betting Rafa Garcia plus 3.5 just because... I think it's very very very very very likely Garcia will win the third round."

Diary of a Pro Gambler

Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

"I like Alexander Hernandez in this one. I think he's going to get it done."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Rafa García

MMA Lock of the Night

CANCEL vs Michael Johnson

UFC 324 · Jan 24, 2026

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, citing his speed, power, and recent resurgence with back-to-back knockouts. He acknowledges Michael Johnson's impressive resume and takedown defense but worries about Johnson's age and chin. He notes Hernandez's tendency to swell and bleed easily as a concern, especially in Vegas where damage matters.

I'm probably gonna throw a money line on him here. I'm just hoping the minus 152 tightens a bit.

"I think Alexander Hernandez is going to be a little too fast, a little too clean. I like the power on the Hernandez side."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (9 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

Big Brady believes Hernandez is finally putting it together, on a four-fight win streak, and filling out at lightweight. He thinks Michael Johnson is too old at 39 and benefited from recency bias after an upset win over Zellhuber. Brady expects Hernandez to win by decision, as Johnson won't push a pace that gasses Hernandez.

Hernandez by decision

"I gotta go Hernandez here. You know, it's actually kind of funny. Both these guys seem to whenever you least expect to just find a way to lose."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

Cody also picks Hernandez but is hesitant due to Hernandez's mental fragility. He notes Hernandez's confidence-based fighting style and recent wins, but worries about his tendency to underperform. Cody believes Hernandez's power and wrestling give him the edge, but he is not fully confident.

"I'm jumping back on team Hernandez. So, if he loses, it's entirely my fault. The universe does not want me to win money on this guy."

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

Connor is torn but leans Hernandez, believing Johnson's win streak is smoke and mirrors. He notes that Hernandez has better wins and is younger, but acknowledges Johnson's speed and durability. Connor thinks Hernandez needs to pressure and wrestle to win, and that Johnson's takedown defense can be frustrated. He ultimately picks Hernandez but with low confidence.

"I'm gonna pick i'm gonna pick hernandez still just because I really think michael johnson's late career win streak is smoke and mirrors."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2026 (16 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

Daniel Vreeland picks Alexander Hernandez based on momentum and age advantage. He notes that Hernandez is on a four-fight win streak, while Johnson is 39 and speed is the first thing to go. However, Vreeland is not fully confident because Hernandez's wins are against lower-level competition and Johnson can beat anyone on a given night.

"I'm going to go with Alexander Hernandez based off the momentum."

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jan 14, 2026 (10 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

James picks Hernandez after tape study, citing his wrestling upside, better footwork, and durability. He notes Johnson is older and that Hernandez is on a better trajectory. However, he is not fully confident and will analyze further for betting.

"I got Alexander Hernandez in this one. I feel like he's going to get it done."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 20, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

The host picks Hernandez by knockout but with low confidence, acknowledging that Johnson could outstrike him over three rounds. He notes Hernandez's power is the difference-maker, but he relies on landing a big shot. He says Johnson is live as an underdog and won't fault anyone taking the plus money.

Hernandez by knockout

"I'm going to go Hernandez here in Hernandez by knockout. Very low confidence level though."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

Paul leans toward Alexander Hernandez, citing his youth and recent winning streak. He notes Hernandez's power and wrestling threat, but is wary of his inconsistency. Paul believes Hernandez can catch Johnson, who is older and has been knocked out before. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

Under 2.5 rounds

"I don't mind an under two and a half at like plus 125 in this fight. I think both guys have paths to getting a finish."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Michael Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, calling it a 'fraud check' for Alexander Hernandez. He believes Johnson's hand speed will be too much, and that Hernandez will fail to adjust, leading to a KO. He predicts a round two KO.

KO in round two

"I'm going to go with Michael Johnson. If Hernandez wins, he's truly improved beyond belief."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Michael Johnson

Zane picks Johnson, arguing that Johnson has never lost confidence or changed his style, and is still fast and durable. He notes that Hernandez has gone through crises and may not pressure effectively. Zane believes Johnson's speed and shot selection will give Hernandez problems, and that Hernandez's recent wins are less impressive. However, he acknowledges Hernandez could wrestle and win.

"I really think michael johnson could win this and yeah, I think i'm gonna pick him."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Carlos Diego Ferreira

KO R2 3:46 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Alexander Hernandez	1	30 of 75	40%	30 of 75	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:12
Carlos Diego Ferreira	0	23 of 98	23%	23 of 98	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Alexander Hernandez	0	12 of 36	33%	12 of 36	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Carlos Diego Ferreira	0	11 of 53	20%	11 of 53	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Alexander Hernandez	1	18 of 39	46%	18 of 39	0 of 0	---	0:12
2	Carlos Diego Ferreira	0	12 of 45	26%	12 of 45	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Alexander Hernandez	30 of 75	40%	22 of 63	4 of 6	4 of 6	20 of 61	0 of 0	10 of 14
Carlos Diego Ferreira	23 of 98	23%	8 of 56	11 of 35	4 of 7	23 of 96	0 of 2	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Alexander Hernandez	12 of 36	33%	7 of 28	2 of 4	3 of 4	12 of 36	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Carlos Diego Ferreira	11 of 53	20%	3 of 29	6 of 19	2 of 5	11 of 51	0 of 2	0 of 0
2	Alexander Hernandez	18 of 39	46%	15 of 35	2 of 2	1 of 2	8 of 25	0 of 0	10 of 14
2	Carlos Diego Ferreira	12 of 45	26%	5 of 27	5 of 16	2 of 2	12 of 45	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Diego Ferreira vs. Alexander Hernandez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-140); Ferreira (+115)

Round 1
Jeff Rexroad is the referee. Ferreira takes the center of the cage in the early going. Hernandez is attacking with leg kicks. A solid jab lands for Hernandez. Ferreira catches a kick to the body and attempts to counter. Ferreira launches a big right hand and Hernandez circles away. A right hand makes Ferreira stumble briefly. Hernandez jabs and Ferreira lands a body kick. Another jab for Hernandez. Ferreira lands a body kick. Lots of movement for Hernandez which is making it difficult for Ferreria to find his range. A front kick to the body lands for Ferreira. They trade and Ferreira ends the exchange with a knee. A straight lands for Hernandez. Ferreira continues to walk Hernandez down. Ferreira lands a front kick to the body. A close opening round.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira

Round 2
Hernandez kicks the body. Ferreira catches and attempts to counter. He gets poked in the eye in the process and time is called. Ferreira doesn’t need much time to recover. A counter left lands clean for Ferreira in an exchnage. Ferreira lands a body kick as Hernandez moves forward. Ferreira just misses on a head kick. A solid right gets through for Hernandez. Ferreira blocks a hard body kick. Hernandez continues his movement based approach, but he’s not landing much. Another straight shot lands for Hernandez. A left hook and a body kick connect for Ferreira. Ferreirra presses forward and
Hernandez drops him with a perfectly-timed counter right hand to the temple. Smelling blood, Hernandez pounces and unleashes a hailstorm of violent ground-and-pound. Rexroad gives Ferreira plenty of leeway — perhaps too much — but after about eight unanswered punches, the fight is mercifully called.
That’s a resounding victory for the San Antonio native, who has won four consecutive Octagon appearances. Ferreira ends the fight with a nasty hematoma on the side of his head.

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Diego Ferreira via TKO (Punches) R2 3:46

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, noting he is hitting his stride lately, explosive, well-rounded, and a good athlete. He says this feels like a great fight for Hernandez, fighting an older guy at home (San Antonio). His only concern is that Hernandez cuts easily, which could affect judging. He says if the odds are reasonable, he will bet on him.

If they're reasonable in any fashion, I will be betting on him.

"Alex is going to be the pick. My only concern is that he cuts so damn easily."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Carlos Diego Ferreira

Big Brady leans toward Ferreira because Hernandez fades late in fights. He notes Hernandez is explosive early but has poor cardio and was put together on short notice. Ferreira is durable and has finished fights late. He predicts Ferreira wins by third-round knockout after weathering an early storm.

Third round knockout

"I'm going to say Ferrer wins this fight by third round knockout."

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Carlos Diego Ferreira

Connor picks Ferreira, emphasizing that Hernandez's inability to handle pressure will be exploited. He notes that Ferreira is a dangerous grappler and powerful striker, and Hernandez's wrestling won't be an easy out. Connor acknowledges Ferreira's age but says if not for age, he would pick Ferreira without question.

"I will agree I'm flighty on it because of age, but if it weren't for age, I would be picking Ferreira. No question."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Carlos Diego Ferreira

Hernandez is making a quick turnaround, but the host believes he is up against it. He expects Ferreira to stave off Hernandez's early power and explosivity, then wear him down with pace, pressure, and grappling, winning on the scorecards.

"I think we'll see Fera do a good job in terms of staving off the early threat that Hernandez presents with this power and explosivity and then really start wearing the veteran down with his pace, pressure, and grappling. Look …"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Carlos Diego Ferreira

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Diego Ferreira as an underdog, believing he will 'fraud check' Alexander Hernandez. He highlights Ferreira's win over Michael Johnson and competitive fights with Gamrot and Rebecki. He argues Hernandez struggles against veteran fighters and that Ferreira is a step above Hernandez's previous opponents. He predicts a second or third round TKO.

Round 2 or 3 TKO

"Carlos Diego Feer is going to beat Alexander Hernandez. ... I'm going to go with Carlos Diego Vega getting this one done. Second or third round TKO finish."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Carlos Diego Ferreira

Zane picks Ferreira, citing his experience, aggressive inclination, and power. He notes that Hernandez is allergic to pressure and struggles when backed up, while Ferreira will pressure him. Zane acknowledges Ferreira's age (40) but believes his style and dangerous grappling will neutralize Hernandez's wrestling and force him into uncomfortable exchanges.

"I kind of have to pick Diego Ferreira. Because that Damon Jackson fight was just last year."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Chase Hooper

KO R1 4:58 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Chase Hooper	0	20 of 82	24%	20 of 82	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:05
Alexander Hernandez	1	17 of 38	44%	18 of 39	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:02

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Chase Hooper	0	20 of 82	24%	20 of 82	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:05
1	Alexander Hernandez	1	17 of 38	44%	18 of 39	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:02

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Chase Hooper	20 of 82	24%	7 of 62	7 of 12	6 of 8	20 of 81	0 of 1	0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez	17 of 38	44%	14 of 35	3 of 3	0 of 0	13 of 33	0 of 0	4 of 5

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Chase Hooper	20 of 82	24%	7 of 62	7 of 12	6 of 8	20 of 81	0 of 1	0 of 0
1	Alexander Hernandez	17 of 38	44%	14 of 35	3 of 3	0 of 0	13 of 33	0 of 0	4 of 5

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Alexander Hernandez vs. Chase Hooper
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hooper (-345), Hernandez (+275)

Round 1
Getting away from the prelims to the four-bout chunk on the ESPN network, we start with a lightweight clash that pits a young-up-and-comer against someone who used to hold that status before aging out of it. Hooper (16-3-1, 8-3 UFC) is full of things and vinegar at the age of 25 on a five-fight win streak—one shy of a career long. His opponent Hernandez (16-8, 8-7 UFC) has won lately to edge himself above the .500 UFC record line, although a defeat tonight would even him out again. The two men have referee Jason Herzog to thank for how the officiating will play out in the next 15 minutes or fewer, and they opt to bump fists.
Hooper starts off with long front kicks from either limb to the body. The kicks set up one up high, and he chains a spinning back fist into it. Hernandez steps in to kick the body, and Hooper nearly reaches him on the way out with his far longer limbs. Hernandez tries to close the distance again, and Hooper uses his front kick to frustrate his foe. Hernandez manages to get in to score a pair of punches, only to have to back off and wait for Hooper to throw a naked kick to counter with an overhand left. Hernandez sticks out a straight right hand, and Hooper whizzes past him with a combination.
Hernandez sits down on two counterpunches when Hooper kicks at the ribs, and he hurls a big left hand as Hooper shoots in for a single-leg entry. Hernandez breaks out of it and circles away, blocking a chasing strike or two including a spinning back fist. Hooper plants two punches on the jaw, and Hernandez reaches him at the end of a left. Hooper’s front kick is mixed in, and he shoots in low for a takedown and lands on his own face. Hernandez scoots away and lets Hooper back up, and he measures the longer fighter with looping punches out of range. Hernandez connects on a few punches and evades a long right hand, while parrying two subsequent strikes. “The Great Ape” hits with a left, and Hooper partially rolls with it and replies with doubled left hooks.
Hernandez keeps moving from side to side, and he lances a fierce right hand down the middle to separate Hooper from his senses. Hooper collapses to his knees and tries for a desperate takedown to save himself, and Hernandez pounds on him from both sides of the head with seconds to go in the round. As Hooper takes damage, Herzog waves the fight off
, as he does not feel that Hooper should have a few more seconds to ride out the round and recover. Hooper is crestfallen but nods in understanding when informed exactly what happened, while the victorious Hernandez raises his arms and parades around the cage to celebrate.

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Chase Hooper R1 4:58 via TKO (Punches)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Chase Hooper

Angelo notes Hooper has filled out physically, improved his takedowns, and is undefeated at 155. He thinks Hernandez is inconsistent and undersized, and that Hooper's height and BJJ advantage could be key. However, he acknowledges Hernandez's takedown defense and toughness, making this a close fight. He slightly leans Hooper but is not confident.

Considering betting Hernandez to win a round (+3.5) at plus money

"I'm going to slight lean Chase. Chase is going to be the pick, but like by this much."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Chase Hooper

Big Brady picks Chase Hooper to win by second-round TKO. He notes Hernandez struggles with high pace and has been broken in many fights. Hooper is massive, pushes a pace, and will drain Hernandez's gas tank. He thinks Hooper will chain takedowns and submission attempts, finishing Hernandez in the second or third round. He acknowledges Hernandez could hurt Hooper early, but if Hooper gets rolling, it's a bad matchup for Hernandez.

Hooper by TKO, round 2

"I think Chase Suber is going to get it done. So, give me Chase to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by second round TKO."

DFS by the Numbers

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Chase Hooper

The host notes Hooper's recent improvements and chaotic striking approach. He expects Hooper to wear down Hernandez and eventually find a submission, likely in the second or third round.

submission in the second or third round

"Given his recent improvements and his chaotic striking approach, I think he can wear down Hernandez and eventually find a submission probably in the second or third round"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

The Guru leans towards Alexander Hernandez, though he expresses some hesitation. He believes Hernandez's explosiveness and body shots will be effective against Chase Hooper. The Guru notes that Hooper's grappling is improved but he lacks damaging ground and pound and often wins by submission threat rather than actual submissions. He worries about Hernandez's close fight with Austin Hubbard but thinks Hernandez will have more moments in the scrambles and on the feet.

"I'm going to lean towards Alexander Hernandez here for some reason. I don't know why I'm feeling it, but I think Alexander Hernandez is going to show up and have a, you know, I beat Benil Darush, by the way, …"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Kurt Holobaugh

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Alexander Hernandez	0	59 of 149	39%	87 of 186	4 of 5	80%	0	0	6:39
Kurt Holobaugh	0	71 of 171	41%	106 of 215	0 of 0	---	1	0	0:32

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Alexander Hernandez	22 of 68	32%	24 of 70	1 of 1	100%	0	0:09
1	Kurt Holobaugh	26 of 75	34%	26 of 75	0 of 0	---	1	0:14
2	Alexander Hernandez	30 of 62	48%	37 of 75	1 of 1	100%	0	2:01
2	Kurt Holobaugh	38 of 78	48%	48 of 91	0 of 0	---	0	0:18
3	Alexander Hernandez	7 of 19	36%	26 of 41	2 of 3	66%	0	4:29
3	Kurt Holobaugh	7 of 18	38%	32 of 49	0 of 0	---	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Alexander Hernandez	59 of 149	39%	36 of 117	10 of 15	13 of 17	45 of 129	2 of 3	12 of 17
Kurt Holobaugh	71 of 171	41%	39 of 122	21 of 35	11 of 14	63 of 160	8 of 11	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Alexander Hernandez	22 of 68	32%	12 of 51	3 of 8	7 of 9	22 of 68	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Kurt Holobaugh	26 of 75	34%	11 of 49	8 of 16	7 of 10	26 of 75	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Alexander Hernandez	30 of 62	48%	17 of 47	7 of 7	6 of 8	21 of 51	2 of 3	7 of 8
2	Kurt Holobaugh	38 of 78	48%	23 of 58	11 of 16	4 of 4	31 of 68	7 of 10	0 of 0
3	Alexander Hernandez	7 of 19	36%	7 of 19	0 of 0	0 of 0	2 of 10	0 of 0	5 of 9
3	Kurt Holobaugh	7 of 18	38%	5 of 15	2 of 3	0 of 0	6 of 17	1 of 1	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt Holobaugh
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-192), Holobaugh (+160)

Round 1
Must-win fights are the name of the game at this UFC Vegas 104 card, as formerly highly touted prospect Hernandez (15-8, 7-7 UFC) has fallen on hard times as of late, winner of just two of his last six. Meanwhile, Holobaugh (21-8, 1 NC; 2-5 UFC) is on his third run in the Octagon, and this stint is more successful than others in the past as he has won a few times. Referee Kerry Hatley will take charge of the lightweights in this next match, and they start things off by bumping fists. Both men let their legs fly, smacking one another with heavy low kicks to start off. Holobaugh jabs to the body and follows with a high kick that bangs into Hernandez’ chest, and the Texan parries another advance from Holobaugh. Hernandez stands his man up with a left hand, and he slides away from any counter. Kicks on the inside and outside of Holobaugh’s leg land, and he surges into action, swarming forward with punches that catch Hernandez on the chin. They bang heads briefly, and before Hatley can say something, Hernandez stops and asks if Holobaugh is alright. They get right back to it, chasing one another around with powerful punch combinations. Holobaugh sneaks in a body kick, and Hernandez responds in kind. This happens again, just with Hernandez striking first. The lightweights take turns engaging, and they continue mirroring one another with their exchanges. One lands, the other gives him something back to think about, and the series carries on. Hernandez comes out swinging with big fists, and Holobaugh slips them and tries to do the same. When Hernandez has his gloves bang into Holobaugh’s, Holobaugh retaliates with a clubbing right hand behind the ear and floors Hernandez with another right hand. Hernandez springs right back up and sits down on a left hand that momentarily stuns his opponent. Hernandez uses his jab to set up strikes, pumping it and putting at least one or two behind it. Holobaugh is just as active, racing at Hernandez and getting met with a takedown attempt. Holobaugh considers grabbing the cage, but he instead sets up a guillotine choke and hits the ground on his back. He continues squeezing the submission, and Hernandez signals a thumbs-up before the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh

Round 2
Holobaugh has a fire lit under his belly between rounds, and he channels that by marching Hernandez down and throwing everything he can at him. Punches, knees, elbows and even a spinning wheel kick come from “The Hurt,” who is putting the hurt on Hernandez in the early going. Hernandez is tough as a two-dollar steak, and he fires back at his constantly advancing foe. Hernandez chops at the lead leg a few times, and Holobaugh has to change stances because of it. This does not slow Holobaugh, who instead plods forward throwing hands. Hernandez catches him with a right hand, and Holobaugh drills him with his own overhand right that staggers the Texan. Hernandez uses the wall behind him to gather his bearings, and he pushes off of it and re-engages. He only lands a few strikes before Holobaugh is back to imposing his volume and will on his quickly bloodied opponent. Holobaugh checks a kick and meets Hernandez with a right hand, and Hernandez sits in the pocket trying to trade back. When Holobaugh overswings with a right hook, Hernandez takes the wind out of his sails by nailing a perfect double-leg takedown. Hernandez keeps Holobaugh on his back, working with ground strikes while Holobaugh rolls for an armbar. Hernandez is having none of it, staying as heavy as he can while drumming him with several left hands. Holobaugh sells out for the armbar, and he does not have the right grip so Hernandez is in no danger. “The Great Ape” hammers Holobaugh with several big punches, mixing between smothering top control and fierce offense. The round ends with Hernandez hacking at his foe with elbows.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh

Round 3
There is one last clap of hands for the lightweights to engage, and Hernandez immediately shoots in for a double and plants Holobaugh on his back. Hernandez moves to side control, and Holobaugh scrambles and sits up. Hernandez drags him down from behind, and he reasserts himself in half guard while isolating an arm-triangle choke. When Holobaugh scrambles, Hernandez is able to jump on top of him and claim full mount for a second before getting pulled back to half guard again. Holobaugh’s scrambles nearly result in him getting caught in an arm-triangle, and Hernandez is a 155-pound lead weight on his chest. Hernandez has his leg wrapped around Holobaugh’s, and when he moves it, Holobaugh explodes back to his feet. It is now punching time, as Holobaugh wants to slug his foe in the chops. Hernandez looks for the takedown that does not come, and Holobaugh marches him down loaded for bear. Hernandez ducks a punch and hits a crucial double, and he lands in half guard and quickly wraps up a head-and-arm choke. Holobaugh is not overly concerned, with Hernandez not able to get leverage on the other side to lock it down. Holobaugh grabs hold of a kimura—could we see a third in consecutive fights?—but it is not there. Hernandez frees his limb and opens up with torrid offense from up top, laying into “The Hurt” with everything he has left. The two go the distance, and the second round may be the one to decide the victor.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Holobaugh)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Holobaugh)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Holobaugh)

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Kurt Holobaugh via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Kurt Holobaugh

Angelo picks Kurt Holobaugh over Alexander Hernandez. He criticizes Hernandez's inconsistency and tendency to wear damage, while Holobaugh's pressure and striking should be effective. Angelo notes that judges favor visible damage, which Holobaugh can inflict. He calls it a 'recipe for success' for Holobaugh.

"I'm actually going to pick Kurt here. I think the pressure the Striking all of that combined with the fact that Alex wears damage on his face and the only thing Vegas judges give a [__] about is tiny little …"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Kurt Holobaugh

Big Brady picks Kurt Holobaugh as an underdog, citing Alexander Hernandez's inconsistency, poor cardio, and tendency to crumble under adversity. He notes that Hernandez has lost to fighters like Bill Algeo, Thiago Moises, and Damon Jackson when pressured. Brady believes Holobaugh is tough, has solid cardio, and good grappling, and can have success on the feet as well. He predicts a close decision win for Holobaugh, possibly winning the second and third rounds.

Holobaugh by decision

"I'll take the dog here and Hollow ball to get it done... plus 155 I'll take Hollow ball here to win."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody picks Angela Hill as a dog, citing her high volume and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes that Hill's fights are often close and she tends to fight to the level of her competition. He believes she can exploit Yasmin Lucindo's reliance on takedowns and lack of striking volume.

"Angela Hill dog money is almost kind of like a system play because she kind of fights the level of her competition every single fight. They're very very close. They kind of end up being coin flippy."

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Kurt Holobaugh

Connor picks Holobaugh because he enjoys rooting for him more, but acknowledges it's a lean. He notes that Holobaugh's relentless pressure and willingness to brawl could cause Hernandez to collapse mentally, as seen in his losses to Damon Jackson, Bill Algeo, and Billy Quarantillo. However, he admits Holobaugh makes terrible decisions and is less athletic.

"I think I'm gonna pick Hollabaugh just because I enjoy rooting for him more."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Kurt Holobaugh

The host believes Holobaugh will dictate the pace, which is bad for Hernandez. He expects Holobaugh to touch up Hernandez over 15 minutes and potentially find a finish after a bad takedown attempt from Hernandez in deep water, either by knockout or club and sub.

finish by knockout or club and sub

"I believe halah should be able to dictate the pace of this matchup which usually is not a good sign for Hernandez that will lead halot to touching up Hernandez over the course of 15 minutes and potentially even finding …"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Paul also picks Angela Hill, emphasizing her experience against Brazilian opponents and her ability to mix takedowns. He notes that Lucindo struggled against Amanda Lemos when taken down and reversed. He believes Hill can bank early rounds with volume and takedowns, then survive the third.

"I'm actually on Angela Hill as well. I mean, uh you can tell that she's slowing down. Her last fight, the speed's there in the first round. The second round, you're starting to see her fade a lot more. body …"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Hernandez, liking him at lightweight where he performs better. He notes Hernandez trains at Factory X Muay Thai now and has a win over Jim Miller. He thinks Hernandez's shot selection and leg kicks will be effective against Kurt Holobaugh, who is 38 years old. He also mentions Hernandez can use offensive takedowns while fresh. He considers Holobaugh's win over Trey Ogden but believes Hernandez is a step above.

"I'm going to go with Alexander Hernandez I like him at lightweight does anyone else like Alexander Hernandez at lightweight"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

Zane picks Hernandez for athletic reasons, noting that Hernandez is a rock-solid wrestler and hits harder than Holobaugh's recent opponents. He acknowledges that Holobaugh's brawling pressure could cause Hernandez to collapse mentally, but believes Hernandez's physical advantages and the fact that Holobaugh makes terrible decisions give him the edge.

Odds: Hernandez opened -218, now -197; Holobaugh opened +178, now +181. Zane calls it a sensible line.

"I'm gonna stick with Hernandez."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Austin Hubbard

Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Alexander Hernandez	0	63 of 191	32%	65 of 193	0 of 12	0%	0	0	0:05
Austin Hubbard	0	79 of 204	38%	91 of 217	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:40

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Alexander Hernandez	10 of 44	22%	11 of 45	0 of 2	0%	0:00
1	Austin Hubbard	23 of 60	38%	23 of 60	0 of 1	0%	0:00
2	Alexander Hernandez	22 of 66	33%	22 of 66	0 of 7	0%	0:05
2	Austin Hubbard	26 of 71	36%	32 of 77	0 of 1	0%	0:09
3	Alexander Hernandez	31 of 81	38%	32 of 82	0 of 3	0%	0:00
3	Austin Hubbard	30 of 73	41%	36 of 80	0 of 0	---	0:31

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Alexander Hernandez	63 of 191	32%	32 of 142	25 of 42	6 of 7	60 of 177	3 of 14	0 of 0
Austin Hubbard	79 of 204	38%	41 of 144	22 of 38	16 of 22	78 of 203	1 of 1	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Alexander Hernandez	10 of 44	22%	2 of 27	7 of 15	1 of 2	10 of 42	0 of 2	0 of 0
1	Austin Hubbard	23 of 60	38%	10 of 43	4 of 7	9 of 10	23 of 60	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Alexander Hernandez	22 of 66	33%	12 of 53	7 of 10	3 of 3	19 of 58	3 of 8	0 of 0
2	Austin Hubbard	26 of 71	36%	13 of 48	8 of 16	5 of 7	26 of 71	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Alexander Hernandez	31 of 81	38%	18 of 62	11 of 17	2 of 2	31 of 77	0 of 4	0 of 0
3	Austin Hubbard	30 of 73	41%	18 of 53	10 of 15	2 of 5	29 of 72	1 of 1	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Alexander Hernandez vs. Austin Hubbard
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-215), Hubbard (+170)

Round 1
When this lightweight affair concludes, one of these two fighters will lift their UFC records to .500 while the other will drift further in the wrong direction. Hoping this second stint courtesy of a finals appearance in TUF 31 will go swimmingly, Hubbard (16-7, 4-5 UFC) comes to blows with Texas native Hernandez (14-8, 6-7 UFC). There is no plan of a glove touch to the precede the action while referee Tyler Tomlinson watches on. Don’t worry, fight fans, ref Dave Seljestad is done for the night. He can’t hurt you anymore. Hubbard presses forward right out of the gate, pursuing Hernandez all across the cage after him. The two trade leg kicks until Hernandez lashes out with a right hand down the pipe. Hernandez tosses out a high kick that is blocked, and a right hand is not. Hubbard ducks down and directly into a right hand, and Hernandez keeps it going with a solid uppercut. Hubbard remains in front of Hernandez, but Hernandez is quicker and beats him to the punch. Hubbard jabs his foe in the chest with a kick, and Hernandez responds with a one-two. Hubbard slips back and tags “The Great Ape” with a left hook, backing Hernandez off. Hubbard chases, going for a single and then attacking up high with a kick. Even getting countered often, Hubbard remains right in front of the Texan, and he dings him with a step-in knee as Hernandez goes after a single. The knee busts Hernandez’ nose open, and a thin trickle of blood leak out of it. Hernandez pays it no mind and connects with a one-two, only for Hubbard to come back firing with a body kick. Hubbard misses a front kick by a whisker, and Hernandez’ body shot finds its home. Hubbard whiffs on a right hook and his front kick pushes off the chest, but the active Hernandez tags him with a few kicks and a left hand. Hubbard skims a right hand over the top, and Hernandez is there with two hooks that buckle Hubbard’s knees but do not send him down. “Thud” gathers his thoughts and has a thudding kick bounce off the guard. Hernandez rushes forward with a left hand and a one-two, and Hubbard barely bats an eye and instead attempts an axe kick. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 2
Striking exchanges from both men open up the round, with both fighters landing at the end of a few successful blows. Hubbard punches his way into a takedown attempt, and Hernandez rebuffs him with ease and attacks the body. They let go with hooks at the same time, and Hernandez manages to get the better of it. Hubbard continues to maintain heavy pressure, and Hernandez beats him to the punch and drops him to his hands with a straight right hand down the pipe. Hernandez clips Hubbard with a pair of punches, and Hubbard sits down on a low kick that turns “The Great Ape” around. Hubbard drops for a single, and Hernandez manages to fight it off and hop around the cage to stay upright. Hubbard strings together a few punches into a body kick, and Hernandez swats him back with a kick to the thigh. Hernandez sneaks a high kick up, and a left hand gives Hubbard some pause, but Hubbard’s durability holds up. Going after a single, Hubbard turns the corner and takes Hernandez down to his seat from behind but cannot keep him there. Hernandez bounces back up and flashes out a few jabs. Hubbard drills him with a shovel uppercut, and he goes after a takedown, misses and blasts a leaning Hernandez in the face with a crisp knee. Hernandez appears no worse for wear from the destructive blow, and he reaches Hubbard with a left hook. Hubbard slides back and lifts up a knee, and the foot bounces into Hernandez’ cup as Hernandez does not say a word. They do not take a break, instead taking turns to throw at one another. Hernandez punches his way into a double-leg takedown, and Hubbard scoots his way to the fencing to not get taken off his feet. Hubbard breaks free and further bloodies Hernandez’ nose with a left hand. Body shots are traded from the fighters, and they crack one another with right hooks to follow. Hubbard drives forward with a body kick, and Hernandez stands firm and blasts him with a left hand at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 3
Fists fly almost immediately to start the last round, and Hernandez charges at Hubbard throwing hands and ending a string of strikes with a knee. Hubbard’s own nose is marked up from oncoming fire, but he is right in there readying himself for a firefight. When a Hubbard takedown is rebuffed once more, he is shoved back and does not eat a strike on the way out this time. Hernandez chains a body shot into two lunging punches, throwing himself off-balance while missing with the strikes. Hubbard catches him with a front kick, two clean punches and a spinning back kick, and Hernandez has to shake it off before responding. When Hernandez darts in, Hubbard has a right hand ready to pop him. Hubbard punches a few times, and Hernandez ducks and eats a knee flush. Hubbard stabs a front kick to the body, fails on a takedown and wings a right hand over the top. Hubbard’s front kick finds its home again, and they jab at the same time. Hernandez dodges a front kick to put a left hand in Hubbard’s face, and Hubbard sells out for a takedown he just cannot find. Hernandez circles around in hopes of taking Hubbard’s back during the attempt, and Hubbard stands and leans against the cage. The two split, and Hernandez connects with an elbow. Hubbard digs a knee to the breadbasket while Hernandez throws hammers, and “Thud” knocks his head around with a combo of hooks. Hubbard’s front kick lands cleanly again, and he hurts Hernandez with another short flurry. Hernandez bites down on his mouthpiece and throws back hard, and they slug it out with punches, kicks, knees and a spinning kick for good measure. The round ends as they go for broke, blood flowing out of Hernandez’ face from numerous clean connects.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hubbard (29-28 Hernandez)
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Hubbard (29-28 Hernandez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hubbard (29-28 Hernandez)

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Austin Hubbard via Split Decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, acknowledging his talent but inconsistency. He notes Hernandez has all the tools but often makes poor decisions. He believes this matchup allows Hernandez to be himself, but he is not confident enough to bet on Hernandez as a favorite. He would only bet if Hernandez is an underdog.

Would only bet if Hernandez is an underdog

"I'm picking Alexander Hernandez here... I am not going to bet on him as a favorite"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Austin Hubbard

Big Brady picks Austin Hubbard as a live dog, citing Hernandez's poor cardio, lack of heart, and short-notice fight at elevation. He expects Hernandez to win the first round but fade, while Hubbard's toughness and cardio will allow him to take over and win a decision, possibly with a late finish.

"I like Hubbert here as a dog I'm going to pick him to win this fight by decision but I wouldn't rule out like a late finish because Hernandez just crumbles time and time again at elevation short notice um …"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Austin Hubbard

Cody picks Hubbard, citing Hernandez's inconsistency and cardio issues. He notes Hubbard's toughness and experience at altitude, believing Hubbard can outlast Hernandez and win a decision or late finish.

"I think I'm gonna take hubard"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

Connor picks Hernandez despite his confidence issues, noting that Hernandez has the physical tools to win. He points out that Hubbard is a talentless bully who only wins by being more physical, and Hernandez has the speed and power to overwhelm him. However, he acknowledges the altitude and short notice could be factors.

"I'm going to take Hernandez though. I'm going to take Hernandez to any, any fight where it seems even remotely possible that Hernandez could win it by mistake."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Austin Hubbard

Daniel Vreeland hesitantly picks Austin Hubbard, despite calling him 'harmless Hubbard.' He dislikes Alexander Hernandez, calling him a fraud and a bust. Vreeland notes that Hernandez has lost four of his last five and that Hubbard is durable and has shown output. He is not confident but refuses to bet on Hernandez.

"I'm going hubard here not confidently because how can you be confident in and harmless hubard"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

The host leans with the physicality and explosiveness of Alexander Hernandez, believing he will land better shots, defend Hubbard's grappling, and eventually find a knockout in the second or third round. He notes both fighters are from Colorado but gives the edge to Hernandez.

"I do have to lean with the physicality and explosiveness of Alexander Hernandez which should allow him to land better shots defend the grappling of hubard and eventually find a Knockout in the second or third round"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Austin Hubbard

Paul picks Hubbard, agreeing with Cody about Hernandez's cardio and durability. He thinks Hubbard's pressure and altitude advantage will be key. He expects Hubbard to win by decision or submission.

"hubard will be the pick for me"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Hernandez after flipping a bottle of mayonnaise, which landed on Hernandez's side. He acknowledges Hernandez is better at lightweight and dangerous, but worries about altitude and Hernandez's tendency to gas out. He notes Hubbard trains at elevation but believes Hernandez's lightweight performances are superior. He predicts a TKO early in the fight.

"We're going with Alexander Hernandez here over Austin hubard TKO early in the fight"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Austin Hubbard

Zane picks Hubbard, citing the altitude and Hernandez's short notice as key factors. He notes that Hernandez has confidence problems and may struggle with the weight cut and altitude. Hubbard is a big strong guy who can grind out a decision if he imposes his physicality.

"I'm going to pick Hubbard with this fight being at altitude, and Hernandez coming in on short notice with his confidence problems."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Damon Jackson

Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Damon Jackson	1	32 of 87	36%	56 of 119	0 of 0	---	0	0	2:22
Alexander Hernandez	0	42 of 85	49%	85 of 135	3 of 7	42%	0	0	6:18

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Damon Jackson	0	8 of 27	29%	10 of 31	0 of 0	---	0:03
1	Alexander Hernandez	0	10 of 21	47%	36 of 49	1 of 4	25%	2:35
2	Damon Jackson	0	19 of 49	38%	19 of 49	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Alexander Hernandez	0	23 of 52	44%	33 of 65	1 of 1	100%	1:22
3	Damon Jackson	1	5 of 11	45%	27 of 39	0 of 0	---	2:19
3	Alexander Hernandez	0	9 of 12	75%	16 of 21	1 of 2	50%	2:21

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Damon Jackson	32 of 87	36%	20 of 69	6 of 11	6 of 7	29 of 80	0 of 3	3 of 4
Alexander Hernandez	42 of 85	49%	20 of 60	10 of 12	12 of 13	30 of 68	11 of 16	1 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Damon Jackson	8 of 27	29%	4 of 23	1 of 1	3 of 3	8 of 26	0 of 1	0 of 0
1	Alexander Hernandez	10 of 21	47%	3 of 13	2 of 3	5 of 5	8 of 19	2 of 2	0 of 0
2	Damon Jackson	19 of 49	38%	11 of 35	5 of 10	3 of 4	19 of 49	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Alexander Hernandez	23 of 52	44%	13 of 40	4 of 5	6 of 7	20 of 47	3 of 5	0 of 0
3	Damon Jackson	5 of 11	45%	5 of 11	0 of 0	0 of 0	2 of 5	0 of 2	3 of 4
3	Alexander Hernandez	9 of 12	75%	4 of 7	4 of 4	1 of 1	2 of 2	6 of 9	1 of 1

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Alexander Hernandez (147.5: Missed Weight) vs. Damon Jackson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-205), Jackson (+170)

Round 1
Serving as the co-headliner is a match previously scheduled at featherweight. Instead, Hernandez (14-7, 6-6 UFC) botched his weight cut and exceeded the limit by a pound and a half on his second attempt. He surrenders a percentage of his purse to Jackson (22-6-1, 1 NC; 5-4-1, 1 NC UFC). Both men have struggled as of late, with Hernandez going 1-3 in his last four while Jackson has dropped two in a row. One of these two will get in the win column shortly, if referee Jason Herzog has anything to say about it. Hernandez offers an apologetic glove touch, and the magnificently maned Jackson does not accept it. Jackson prods out a front kick, and he wings a right hand that misses by a wide margin. Hernandez comes back at him with a head kick that is easily blocked, and he whips a kick low at the lead wheel. Jackson throws back his own body kick, and he turns Hernandez with a low kick. They both load up with right hands, and Jackson attacks the calf again. Jackson just misses with a front kick aimed at the jaw, and he catches a lazy kick aimed his direction and grabs hold of the younger man. Jackson grapples Hernandez from behind, getting away with a fence grab as Jackson tries to get a hook in standing. Jackson scores a number of knees to the back of the thigh, until Hernandez explodes and gets away. Hernandez manages to lure Jackson into a brief brawl, and Jackson sits down on a calf kick to again fluster Hernandez. Hernandez keeps a poker face and boxes Jackson in the jaw. Jackson catches the body kick and tries to procure a takedown with it, and he presses Hernandez to the wire. Jackson doggedly pursues a single, and he places “The Great Ape” gingerly on his seat. Jackson looks for offense when he gets there, only to find Hernandez springing back up after all of that hard work. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Jackson

Round 2
Jackson begins the round with a head kick attempt, and he bloodies up his foe’s nose during a punch exchange. Jackson surges forward with two punches, and he turns his hips into a kick to the side. Hernandez tries to throw back a few times, but he misses the mark each time. Jackson jabs his way forward, and he hammers the calf with a kick. Jackson keeps doing work on the calf, and they both let loose with big haymaker right hands. Hernandez times a leg kick with an overhand right, and he counters with a solid right hand when Jackson tries to come back at him. Hernandez zips a left hand around the guard, and he leans back to let a head kick buzz past him. Hernandez chops at the front leg of his foe, and that reminds Jackson to do the same. Jackson rushes forward with punches, and Hernandez strafes to the side and eats a body kick on the way out. They both swing for the fences, and Jackson’s chin holds up although a cut opens up on the bridge of his nose. Hernandez targets jabs on that bloody spot, and he gets off a calf kick as he backs away. Jackson punches twice and hits a double, putting Hernandez on his side. This results in a stalemate until Jackson springs into action, and when Hernandez stands up, Jackson takes his back and gets a hook in. Jackson slithers his arm around the chin, and he lets it go to slug Hernandez in the chops repeatedly. The round ends as Jackson is pounding on him.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Jackson

Round 3
Jackson only needs a few seconds before delivering a fierce leg kick. When he throws a second, Hernandez times it and rifles a right hand straight down the middle. Jackson goes down like a sack of bricks, and Hernandez leaps on top of him and starts hunting for a choke. Jackson scrambles to get out of the initial danger, and Hernandez climbs into full mount and squeezes down with an arm-triangle choke. Jackson turns all the way around and fights back to his feet, and Hernandez charges at him throwing bombs. Jackson uses that momentum to turn the corner and pursue a takedown, and “The Great Ape” digs in his heels and does not hit the mat. Hernandez considers going for an ankle pick, and Jackson kicks off the cage and manages to take Hernandez’ back. Hernandez gets flattened out as Jackson starts working him with fists, until he powers back to his feet and tries to buck Jackson off of him. Jackson keeps tight and hangs on until Hernandez manages to work him off. Jackson turns through and goes for a single, dropping down to his knees to complete it. Jackson grinds on the younger fighter when he cannot complete the takedown, and they jockey for position against the cage. They turn one another around without gaining an advantage or landing much of note. Jackson sticks his tongue out, and he lands several elbows and punches to separate right before the horn sounds. Scores could be all over the map.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)

The Official Result
Damon Jackson def. Alexander Hernandez via Split Decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez but with very low confidence. He acknowledges Hernandez is the better overall fighter and athlete, but he hates the weight cut to 145 lbs, which he thinks makes Hernandez slower, chinny, and potentially cardio-compromised. He notes that Damon Jackson is the type of grappler who can spoil plans and slow the pace. Angelo says he is only picking Hernandez because he is better everywhere except BJJ, but he hates the weight cut.

"very low pick on Alexander Hernandez"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

Big Brady picks Alexander Hernandez to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Hernandez has the tools to win, including takedown defense to stuff Jackson's shots, and is the much better striker. He questions Jackson's chin and believes Hernandez will knock him out early. However, he acknowledges that if the fight reaches the second round, Hernandez tends to slow down and get broken.

win by first round KO

"Hernandez ko1 for me"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

Cody also picks Hernandez but is wary of betting him at -210. He notes Hernandez's explosive first round and power, but his cardio fades after 7.5 minutes. Cody thinks Hernandez likely disposes of Jackson in the first round, but if it goes longer, Jackson's craftiness and submission threat could flip the fight. He calls it a dodgy proposition.

"Alexander Hernandez gets the job done and takes him out in the first seven and a half minutes... but it's a dodgy proposition"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Damon Jackson

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Damon Jackson to upset Alexander Hernandez. He argues Hernandez is a front-runner who fades after round one, citing examples like the Billy Quarantillo fight where Jackson dragged him into deep waters. Vreeland believes Jackson's awkward length and grappling can neutralize Hernandez's early explosiveness, and if the fight goes past the first round, Jackson will take over. He notes Hernandez's recent win over Bill Algeo was unimpressive because Algeo is not a finishing threat.

"I'm gonna go Damon Jackson here for the upset."

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

Hernandez is faster, more explosive, and has more power. Jackson will struggle to close the distance and get takedowns. Hernandez can land big shots and likely knock Jackson out. The under 2.5 rounds is a good play as the fight should end early.

Hernandez by KO; under 2.5 rounds

"I expect that to produce a Hernandez knockout but what I'm going to be looking to hone in on is the under two and a half which isus 170 a little bit chalky"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

Paul picks Hernandez but is hesitant because Hernandez is inconsistent. He likes Hernandez's athleticism, speed, strength, and wrestling, and thinks he can ground-and-pound Jackson. However, he worries about Hernandez's cardio and confidence, noting that he falls off after the first round. Paul sees a path where Hernandez finishes Jackson early, but if it goes longer, Jackson's BJJ and durability could cause problems.

"I am going with Alexander Hernandez... he just seems maybe not the better fighter but just the better athlete"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

The host struggles with this pick, noting Jackson's surprising wins (e.g., over Jim Miller) but criticizes his lack of punching conviction. He picks Hernandez as the younger, more explosive fighter with reach and good initial takedown defense. He envisions Hernandez starting fast and clipping Jackson, though he admits Jackson could lay on him. He ultimately goes with Hernandez, calling Jackson 'Mega Mind' and hoping to see him removed from the UFC.

"I think I'm going to go with the younger guy in Alexander Hernandez here he's got reach he has got good initial takedown defense"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Bill Algeo

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Oct 07, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Bill Algeo	0	75 of 156	48%	76 of 157	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:35
Alexander Hernandez	1	110 of 244	45%	119 of 257	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:07

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Bill Algeo	0	16 of 39	41%	16 of 39	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Alexander Hernandez	0	27 of 61	44%	27 of 61	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Bill Algeo	0	28 of 59	47%	28 of 59	0 of 0	---	0:27
2	Alexander Hernandez	1	44 of 89	49%	52 of 100	0 of 0	---	0:05
3	Bill Algeo	0	31 of 58	53%	32 of 59	0 of 1	0%	0:08
3	Alexander Hernandez	0	39 of 94	41%	40 of 96	1 of 1	100%	0:02

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Bill Algeo	75 of 156	48%	25 of 80	45 of 66	5 of 10	75 of 154	0 of 2	0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez	110 of 244	45%	46 of 156	33 of 50	31 of 38	108 of 241	2 of 3	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Bill Algeo	16 of 39	41%	1 of 12	11 of 19	4 of 8	16 of 39	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Alexander Hernandez	27 of 61	44%	6 of 28	7 of 15	14 of 18	27 of 61	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Bill Algeo	28 of 59	47%	12 of 35	15 of 22	1 of 2	28 of 58	0 of 1	0 of 0
2	Alexander Hernandez	44 of 89	49%	21 of 62	13 of 16	10 of 11	43 of 88	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Bill Algeo	31 of 58	53%	12 of 33	19 of 25	0 of 0	31 of 57	0 of 1	0 of 0
3	Alexander Hernandez	39 of 94	41%	19 of 66	13 of 19	7 of 9	38 of 92	1 of 2	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Bill Algeo vs. Alexander Hernandez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Algeo (-135), Hernandez (+114)

Round 1
Switching over to the main card, but still broadcasting on ESPN+ stateside, two featherweights right on the borderline of .500 UFC records will collide with intentions of stay on the right side of that line. Former lightweight Hernandez (14-6, 6-5 UFC) will try again in the lower weight division of 145 pounds, and Algeo (17-7, 4-3 UFC) will welcome him back down with bad intentions. With oversight and not a lick of nonsense from referee Keith Peterson, the two men tap their gloves together. Algeo switches stances when he starts the fight, reaching out with kicks from both legs. Hernandez swings a head kick at him that buzzes past his hair, and Algeo avoids it and salutes the strike. Both men trade low kicks, and Hernandez goes after one to the body. Algeo checks a kick and kicks the calf back, and he leans back from a power right hand that misses him by a small margin. Hernandez kicks his foe in the chest, and Algeo springs into action with two hooks and a high kick. Hernandez ricochets off the fencing to reset, and he leans low to block a head kick before the full power is on it. Hernandez aims punches to the midsection, and he opens up the head with these strikes. “The Great Ape” connects with a solid leg kick, and he ducks a head kick. Algeo kicks him in the gut with a side kick and sends him flying, and Hernandez springs back to his feet and is ready to block a spinning kick fired his way. Hernandez goes up high with his shin, and Algeo is able to defend against it and chip at the lead wheel with another kick. Algeo targets the body with a kick, and he snaps out a jab, and turns a full rotation to spin with a kick to the body. Algeo looks for an intercepting knee when Hernandez ducks to punch the body, and Hernandez aims his heavy strikes that are coming up just short. Hernandez digs punches to the midsection, and he keeps his guard up high in time to defend against a hook kick. Hernandez fires back with a kick that glances off the shoulder of his foe, and Algeo replies with a number of pawing jabs. Hernandez sweeps out with a body kick, and Algeo is right there to give him a low kick back when he sets his leg down. Hernandez looks for a leaping combination, only for Algeo to shoulder roll every blow and circle on the outside. Algeo threatens with a kick and a spin kick, but Hernandez does not bite on them and lets him turn back around. One body kick from Algeo concludes the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Algeo

Round 2
Round 2 begins with a half-hearted glove touch, and Hernandez follows it quickly with a kick to the ribs. Hernandez loads up on a right hand, and Algeo shakes it off and jabs the body. Hernandez puts power behind his strikes, and Algeo stays elusive and meets him with a knee up the middle. Algeo ducks a haymaker, and a second strike from “The Great Ape” bounces off the chest. Algeo jabs the nose and body, and Hernandez starts to crowd him and force exchanges in the pocket. The Texan parries a few punches and comes back with a big right hand, and Algeo turns to the side and lets it glide past him. Algeo fires off a right hand to the eye socket, and Hernandez complains that it was an eye poke. Peterson calls time and allows Hernandez to recover, and replays show it was the knuckle of Algeo’s thumb that jammed into the eye – which could be considered a legal blow. However, if Algeo’s thumb was not locked into the fist, it would be the legitimate foul, and Hernandez continues to take the time he needs as Peterson brings in the doctor to check his condition. After two minutes and 15 seconds, Hernandez informs the medical staff and Peterson that he is good to go, and the fighters touch gloves and have no ill will about the perceived foul. The action begins immediately, and Hernandez is headhunting with power strikes and stalking Algeo down. Algeo skirts on the outside and lands a few kicks to varying targets, with his intention of keeping Hernandez missing while he fights at his preferred range. Hernandez loads up on everything, and a few right hands get Algeo’s attention. When one solid right hook slams into Algeo’s chin, Algeo is energized and starts putting some power into his own strikes as well. Algeo turns his hips into a low kick, and a straight left hand that follows sits Hernandez down. Hernandez pops back up and ties Algeo up, trying to get his bearings back after getting his bell rung. The two separate, and Hernandez comes back with a vengeance. Algeo slips to the side and jumps at his man with a knee that pops into the nose, bloodying it up instantly. Algeo spins with an elbow that clacks into Hernandez’ cheek, and Hernandez tanks it and is loaded for bear. Hernandez plods forward and digs a punch to the body, and he chains a head kick into it that makes Algeo shake his head. Hernandez targets the body and goes up high, and Algeo leans back to take the worst out of it. The round ends with both fighters trading.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Algeo

Round 3
The featherweights are amped up and ready to finish the fight off with style, as the limited crowd gives it up for the two fighters. Hernandez races out of his corner with bad intentions, throwing hammers until he bullies Algeo to the wall and goes after a takedown. Algeo shuts it down and pushes Hernandez back, and he busts Hernandez in the chops with a straight right hand. Algeo stays loose while Hernandez is a coiled string, and Hernandez just misses a counter left that is a bit too low to find the chin. Algeo uses his traditional martial arts stance to put two side kicks on the chest in rapid succession, as range-keeping weapons that disrupt the bombs Hernandez looks to throw. Algeo suddenly whips a kick up high to hurt Hernandez, and he strings several punches into a body kick to conclude it with an exclamation point. Hernandez is tough as nails, as he swings back with all his might, with looping right hooks and heavy kicks to the body. Algeo reaches his man with a sweeping right hook and a left to the body, and Hernandez gives him a hard right hand back on the chin. Hernandez follows it with a second, and Algeo cannot quite shoulder roll that one. Algeo dings his man with a left hand with his thumb outstretched, and Hernandez tells Peterson he was poked in the eye again. Peterson asks Hernandez to keep fighting, and he does just that. Both men keep trading, with Hernandez kicking the body and aiming a few to the head as well. Hernandez steps in with a right hand on the jaw, and he slams his shin on the waist to follow. Algeo meanders back, and Hernandez blasts him with a huge right hook. Algeo takes it and does not bat an eye, instead going right back at his foe and making sure to not allow Hernandez to land strikes for free. Hernandez continues to stalk Algeo down, unloading anything he can throw, and they both land massive shots at the same time. Algeo tags Hernandez with a knee, Hernandez cracks him with a right, and Algeo trips him up and throws him to the mat. Hernandez climbs back up, and the scrap comes to a conclusion.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Algeo (30-27 Algeo)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Algeo (30-27 Algeo)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Algeo (30-27 Algeo)

The Official Result
Bill Algeo def. Alexander Hernandez via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Bill Algeo

Big Brady picks Bill Algeo, citing Alexander Hernandez's poor cardio, durability, and heart. He notes that Hernandez has been finished in the second round in most of his losses and that Algeo is tough, has never been knocked out, and can maintain a high pace. He expects Hernandez to win the first round but fade, allowing Algeo to secure a second-round finish, either by knockout or submission.

second round finish for Bill Algeo

"I'm going to take Bill algae to win this fight I'll take Bill algae to win this fight by second round knockout could be a submission as well"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

Cody picks Hernandez, noting his athleticism, power, and improved cardio. He believes Hernandez is still in his prime and that Algeo's lack of physicality and takedown defense will be exploited. He suggests live betting Algeo after the first round if Hernandez fades, but expects Hernandez to win.

Hernandez by decision

"I'm gonna go ahead and agree again... gotta take another dog somewhere and I think Alexander Hernandez has a very good chance"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

Daniel Levi picks Alexander Hernandez hesitantly, acknowledging his history as a 'talented flake' but seeing improvement in his last fight against Jim Miller. He believes Hernandez is the better athlete, faster, and more explosive, but questions his mental consistency. He notes that Bill Algeo has lost to similar talented flakes like Ricardo Ramos and Andre Fili. Levi thinks if Hernandez keeps his composure, he can win, but it's a tough call.

"I think on his best day he can beat Bill algo so hopefully it's his best day I'll pick him to win this fight"

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2023 (fight day)

Alexander Hernandez

Lucrative James bet Hernandez as an underdog and sees him winning round one at a high clip, possibly by knockout. He believes Hernandez's wrestling is underrated and he can get takedowns at will. He thinks Algeo does not have the pressure or pace of Billy Quarantillo or Drew Dober, so Hernandez won't gas as badly. He calculates Hernandez should be around -150 based on round-by-round analysis.

bet as underdog, line moved to favorite

"I like Alexander Hernandez side here I bet him as an underdog"

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2023 (1 day before fight)

Bill Algeo

Algeo has a better gas tank and an unorthodox style that will trouble Hernandez. Hernandez has a history of slowing down in later rounds, and Algeo's awkward movement and pressure should wear on him. Algeo may even get a late submission. The line movement toward Hernandez makes Algeo even more valuable. Expect Algeo to pull away in the second and third rounds.

late submission

"I think alio starts to pull away with this in deep water maybe even gets a late finish in this matchup"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

Paul picks Hernandez, citing his superior athleticism and power. He notes that Algeo is not physically strong and has been taken down in every UFC fight. Hernandez's wrestling and striking should be enough to win, and Paul likes the plus money value.

"Alexander Hernandez for me... at plus 125 that would be my pick"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Bill Algeo

The MMA Guru picks Bill Algeo over Alexander Hernandez. He believes Algeo is very tricky to finish and underrated, with wins over Joe Anderson Brito and Herbert Burns. He criticizes Hernandez's cardio at featherweight, noting he gassed after round one against Quarantillo. He predicts Algeo will capitalize on Hernandez's mistakes and get a third-round finish, possibly by submission or TKO. He also mentions Algeo's potential for a post-fight mic moment.

third round finish, submission or TKO

"I'm going bilalgia I think he's very tricky to finish and I don't like Hernandez at featherway"

THE MMA GURU

View all 19 fights

Expert Picks (5)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

"Alexander Hernandez is the better fighter, so he's the pick. I just need him to actually pull the trigger."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Rafa García

García wins by decision

"I'm going to take Garcia Garcia by decision."

DFS by the Numbers

Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2026 (fight day)

Rafa García

Garcia +3.5 rounds; fight likely goes to decision; great for live betting

"I will be betting Rafa Garcia plus 3.5 just because... I think it's very very very very very likely Garcia will win the third round."

Diary of a Pro Gambler

Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

"I like Alexander Hernandez in this one. I think he's going to get it done."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Rafa García

MMA Lock of the Night

Rafa García

Alexander Hernandez

Career Averages - Rafa García

Career Averages - Alexander Hernandez

Rafa García

Alexander Hernandez

Rafa García - Fight History

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