UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Oct 24, 2020 · Catchweight (173 lb) · Completed
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Age 31
Height 6' 1"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 38
Height 5' 11"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Shavkat Rakhmonov
3.25 SLpM
60.0% Str. Acc.
2.17 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
1.4 TD Avg
25.0% TD Acc.
85.0% TD Def.
1.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Alex Oliveira
2.99 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
2.55 SApM
46.0% Str. Def.
2.35 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
63.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Shavkat Rakhmonov - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 37 of 67 55% 65 of 102 2 of 10 20% 0 1 11:41
Ian Machado Garry 0 42 of 84 50% 102 of 157 1 of 2 50% 2 0 2:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 2 of 5 40% 13 of 16 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:20
Ian Machado Garry 0 3 of 4 75% 14 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 9 of 18 50% 15 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:31
Ian Machado Garry 0 10 of 24 41% 13 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
3 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 11 of 19 57% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:11
Ian Machado Garry 0 14 of 34 41% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
4 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 14 of 22 63% 19 of 30 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:55
Ian Machado Garry 0 11 of 16 68% 23 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
5 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 1 of 3 33% 7 of 12 0 of 3 0% 0 1 2:44
Ian Machado Garry 0 4 of 6 66% 38 of 46 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 37 of 67 55% 29 of 55 6 of 10 2 of 2 24 of 50 3 of 4 10 of 13
Ian Machado Garry 42 of 84 50% 11 of 40 10 of 15 21 of 29 35 of 72 7 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 2 of 5 40% 1 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0
Ian Machado Garry 3 of 4 75% 0 of 1 2 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 9 of 18 50% 9 of 16 0 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ian Machado Garry 10 of 24 41% 2 of 12 2 of 3 6 of 9 8 of 20 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Shavkat Rakhmonov 11 of 19 57% 7 of 14 4 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ian Machado Garry 14 of 34 41% 4 of 16 3 of 7 7 of 11 14 of 31 0 of 3 0 of 0
4 Shavkat Rakhmonov 14 of 22 63% 11 of 19 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 8 1 of 1 10 of 13
Ian Machado Garry 11 of 16 68% 2 of 6 3 of 3 6 of 7 10 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Shavkat Rakhmonov 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ian Machado Garry 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov but is nervous. He notes Shavkat has more ways to win (KO, submission) and is dangerous everywhere, but his takedowns are not great (1 for 5 against Wonderboy) and he hasn't fought meaningful time. Ian Garry accepted this fight on short notice, which suggests he knows something. Angelo is leaning Shavkat but may just watch and enjoy.

Minus 350, might just watch and enjoy
"I'm going to pick shavkat rakman off but I'm a little nervous here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody picks Rakhmonov, citing his undefeated record, finishing ability, and wins over tough opponents. He notes Rakhmonov's takedown accuracy is low but he finds the neck when needed. He has concerns about Rakhmonov's striking lulls and Garry's potential in a kickboxing match, but still favors Rakhmonov.

"I'm going to take Shavkat to get the job done and hand Ian Garry his first career loss."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Connor believes Shavkat's clinch game and pressure will be decisive. He notes that Shavkat has terrible striking defense but is durable and confident, and that his ability to get into the clinch and break opponents down is reminiscent of Khabib. Connor thinks Garry will have success at range early but will eventually give ground and get caught in clinches, leading to a finish. He also mentions the training partner dynamic, where Shavkat got the better of Garry on the ground.

Shavkat opened at -238, currently -372; Garry opened at +204, currently +304. Connor thinks the line is too wide but still favors Shavkat.
"I am inclined to take Shavkat. Even if I think Gary is going to show up some of his striking."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Daniel believes Rakhmonov's clinch work and physicality will be too much for Garry. He notes Garry's vulnerability after being dropped by Keenan Song and questions his vegan diet's effect on muscle mass. He expects Rakhmonov to close distance methodically and hand Garry his first loss.

"I'm gonna go Shaftcat Rammon up to come out here, hand Ian Gary his first ever loss."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Daniel Vreeland picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, citing that the Michael Venom Page fight showed the ceiling of Ian Garry's striking. He argues that Garry's grappling ace won't work against Rakhmonov, who has superior wrestling and submission skills. Vreeland notes Rakhmonov's striking is good enough to hang with Garry, and his finishing upside is all on his side, especially in a five-round fight where it gets worse for Garry.

"yeah and I'm still going Rockman off uh for me you know you watch that and Gary fight with Mich zenom page and it was like okay there's the ceiling on Machado Gary striking right and and we kind of …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Jeff Fox agrees with Rakhmonov, noting that the MVP fight was not encouraging for Garry and that this is a massive step up. He questions Garry's path to victory, suggesting a decision is possible but would mean 15 minutes of danger. Fox points out that the finishing upside is all on Rakhmonov, especially in a five-round fight, making it even worse for Garry.

"no there's no real holes at least he hasn't shown any holes yet uh sha cut hasn't not that Gary is is looked bad but yeah that mvp fight was not encouraging um it's it's a big step up from …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Lucrative James picks Ian Garry as a significant underdog, calling it a 50/50 fight. He believes Garry's slick striking, body work, and BJJ will be enough to outpoint Rakhmonov. He notes Garry's durability is underrated and that the former sparring partner dynamic adds volatility. He trusts Garry's cardio and toughness to persevere.

"I actually think Ian Gary is going to win this fight... I'm picking Ian Gary outright in this one boys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Although the line is wide in favor of Rakhmonov, Gary could provide resistance with his technical striking and walk Rakhmonov into some shots. However, the ultimate difference maker will be Rakhmonov's aggressiveness, which will wear down Gary and lead to a finish within rounds three or four.

finish within rounds 3-4
"I do believe the ultimate differen maker is going to be the aggressiveness on Rock manov which event eventually wears down Gary and leads to a finish for rock manov within rounds three or four"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul picks Rakhmonov, emphasizing his finishing ability and superior competition. He criticizes Garry's hype and close fights, noting his takedown defense and cardio concerns. He thinks Rakhmonov's grappling will be the difference, but acknowledges the line is too heavy to bet heavily.

"Rakhmonov is going to take him down... I think Rakhmonov wins this fight wide."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat, but acknowledges Ian Garry's solid chance. He thinks Garry will be winning early, but Shavkat will crack him in the third or fourth round, leading to a momentum shift. He notes Garry is more likely to break (leg, hand, body shot) and that Shavkat's pressure and clinch work will be decisive. He predicts a TKO win against the cage in the late third or fourth round.

Shavkat wins by TKO in round 3 or 4
"I got shavkat but hear me out Ian Gary's got a solid chance here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Zane agrees with Connor, highlighting Shavkat's clinch expertise and Garry's tendency to back up under pressure. He notes that Garry's risk aversion and lack of elite athleticism will be exposed, and that Shavkat's finishing ability will likely lead to a stoppage. Zane also points out that Garry's recent performances have been lackluster and that he struggles when pressured.

"I think Shavkat's going to be champ here very, very soon."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 4:56 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 28 of 36 77% 73 of 88 1 of 5 20% 2 0 7:45
Stephen Thompson 0 16 of 25 64% 26 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 12 of 20 60% 25 of 34 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:25
Stephen Thompson 0 10 of 14 71% 14 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 16 of 16 100% 48 of 54 1 of 3 33% 2 0 4:20
Stephen Thompson 0 6 of 11 54% 12 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 28 of 36 77% 24 of 31 4 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 8 10 of 15 13 of 13
Stephen Thompson 16 of 25 64% 6 of 15 7 of 7 3 of 3 13 of 22 1 of 1 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 12 of 20 60% 9 of 16 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 6 9 of 14 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 10 of 14 71% 3 of 7 4 of 4 3 of 3 9 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 16 of 16 100% 15 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 1 of 1 13 of 13
Stephen Thompson 6 of 11 54% 3 of 8 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, calling it a 'spite matchup' by the UFC. He believes Shavkat's wrestling and finishing ability will be too much for the 40-year-old Thompson, who has historically lost to heavy grapplers. He includes Shavkat in his 'anti-40 parlay'.

Anti-40 parlay leg; finish expected
"shavkat is going to be the pick... shavkat is in that anti-40 parlay as well"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by second-round TKO, calling it a stylistic nightmare for Stephen Thompson. He highlights Rakhmonov's 100% finish rate (17 finishes), vicious ground and pound, and submission threat. Brady notes Thompson's poor takedown defense and age (40), contrasting with Rakhmonov's youth and wrestling ability. He expects Rakhmonov to take Thompson down and finish with ground strikes, similar to Belal Muhammad's near-TKO of Thompson.

"give me shovot to win this fight by second round TKO vicious grounded pound TKO incoming"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody picks Rakhmonov but is hesitant due to the -650 price. He notes that Rakhmonov's wrestling was ineffective against Jeff Neal (0 for 4 takedowns) and that Thompson's movement and length could cause problems. However, he believes the takedown threat will be there and that Rakhmonov is younger and improving. He says he has no intention of betting the fight because the line is too high.

"shavkat is the pick I have no intention of betting that fight though"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Daniel Vreeland picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, emphasizing that Thompson is past his prime and no longer has the power or speed to keep Rakhmonov at range. He notes that Rakhmonov is not afraid to close distance and will be better in the clinch, on the ground, and in the pocket. Vreeland doubts that 40-year-old Thompson can fight a gritty fight or survive Rakhmonov's pressure.

"shavkat is the pick here"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Jeff Fox picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, stating that Rakhmonov is a killer and Thompson is an old fighter who will take a beating. He notes that Rakhmonov is better everywhere the fight goes. Fox also mentions that Thompson's win over Kevin Holland was cumulative, not a big knockout, and that Thompson's current outfighting style won't work against Rakhmonov.

"rachmanov is our pick here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Lucrative James is confident Shavkat Rakhmonov will finish Stephen Thompson inside the distance. He believes Shavkat's pressure, clinch strikes, and takedowns will be too much for Thompson, who he thinks will get tired and cut up. He notes that Belal Muhammad almost TKO'd Thompson twice on the ground, so he sees a finish by TKO or submission as likely.

Inside the distance finish.
"I think Shavkat is going to run through him... Stephen Thompson's gonna get finished inside the distance."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The host sees this as a horrible stylistic matchup for Thompson, as Rakhmonov is a strong grappler who will take Thompson down and finish him. He references how Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad ground out Thompson, and believes Rakhmonov is even more dangerous on top. He expects Rakhmonov to get the takedown easily, secure a dominant position, and get a TKO or submission inside the distance. He advises against betting on Thompson even at plus odds.

Rakhmonov inside the distance
"shavat Rak manov probably more dangerous than those guys when he's able to get them to the ground and I think that will see Rock manov get him to the ground pretty easily here get that dominant position I think …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul picks Rakhmonov, believing the takedowns will be there early and often against Thompson. He acknowledges Thompson's takedown defense has been poor against wrestlers like Gilbert Burns and Kevin Holland. Paul thinks Rakhmonov will find submissions or control, though he admits the Jeff Neal fight exposed some flaws. He still sees Rakhmonov as the pick but agrees the price is too high to bet.

"I think shavkat will have the takedowns I think the time to fade shavkat is coming as he's going to break into this top five"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov over Stephen Thompson, emphasizing Shavkat's size, strength, and clinch game. He notes that Thompson survived against Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns, but Shavkat's trips and top pressure will be different. He predicts Shavkat will use an outside trip from the clinch, get to half guard, and finish with an arm triangle.

Shavkat by submission (arm triangle) in round 2
"shavkat rachmanov arm triangle it's sad but that's what I see happening here... I'm going to go with shavkat getting an arm triangle working his way through after getting half Guard from an outside trip up against the cage"
WIN vs Geoff Neal
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 4:17 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 69 of 145 47% 69 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:12
Geoff Neal 0 113 of 179 63% 120 of 186 0 of 4 0% 1 0 3:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 29 of 54 53% 29 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Geoff Neal 0 43 of 64 67% 46 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 20 of 57 35% 20 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Geoff Neal 0 35 of 70 50% 35 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
3 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 20 of 34 58% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Geoff Neal 0 35 of 45 77% 39 of 49 0 of 2 0% 1 0 2:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 69 of 145 47% 63 of 136 4 of 6 2 of 3 57 of 129 12 of 16 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 113 of 179 63% 69 of 130 39 of 44 5 of 5 74 of 131 39 of 48 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 29 of 54 53% 27 of 51 1 of 1 1 of 2 23 of 47 6 of 7 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 43 of 64 67% 26 of 44 17 of 20 0 of 0 32 of 50 11 of 14 0 of 0
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 20 of 57 35% 18 of 53 1 of 3 1 of 1 19 of 55 1 of 2 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 35 of 70 50% 20 of 54 13 of 14 2 of 2 25 of 56 10 of 14 0 of 0
3 Shavkat Rakhmonov 20 of 34 58% 18 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0 15 of 27 5 of 7 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 35 of 45 77% 23 of 32 9 of 10 3 of 3 17 of 25 18 of 20 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo is confident in Shavkat Rakhmonov, calling him an absolute savage who can submit, knock out, or outwrestle opponents. He notes that Rakhmonov is on a different level and should get the job done. Angelo thinks -500 is fine for parlays.

"I love shaft cat here I think he's on an entirely different level I think he does what he wants I think he gets it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, citing his size, power, and submission game. He notes Neal has good takedown defense but was taken down by Neil Magny, and Rakhmonov is a better wrestler. He predicts a second-round submission for Rakhmonov, but acknowledges if the fight stays standing, it gets interesting.

second round submission
"I like shopkop by submission... I'll say second round submission win for shot rockmanov"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody is high on Rakhmonov, calling him 'the truth' and praising his well-rounded game, clinch work, and finishing ability. He thinks Neal's power is a threat but that Rakhmonov's grappling and fight IQ will be too much. He expects Rakhmonov to win but is unsure if he finishes Neal.

Over 1.5 takedowns for Rakhmonov; considers inside the distance but not confident
"I think he's the truth and he's extremely well-rounded"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Connor picks Rakhmonov confidently, noting Neal's limited toolkit (left hand, left kick) and inability to adjust. He expects Rakhmonov to use his creativity and clinch work to overwhelm Neal, who will likely run into clinches where Rakhmonov can wrestle and land strikes. He acknowledges Neal's toughness and power but sees the matchup as stylistically poor for Neal.

Mentions Rakhmonov opened at -435, now -528; Neal +350 to +378.
"It's hard not to see Rakhmonov just sort of ending up in a winning position at some point."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Jacob is confident in Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting that his toughest test on paper was Neil Magny, whom he dominated. He believes Rakhmonov is too rangy and skilled for Geoff Neal, who relies on power. Jacob expects a first or second round finish.

first or second round finish
"I think it's a first or second second round finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Rakhmonov is a pressure grappler with a 100% finish rate. Neal is a good striker but has struggled against pressure grapplers. Rakhmonov will take the fight to the ground and submit Neal. The fight doesn't go to decision.

fight doesn't go to decision, Rakhmonov by submission
"fight doesn't go to the decision is going to be my favorite spot for this matchup... I'm still going to end up going with the shot Cat Rock one outside to win this fight via submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul agrees with Cody that Rakhmonov is the truth and expects him to win. He notes Neal's takedown defense is good but thinks Rakhmonov is a different level. He likes the over 1.5 takedowns prop for Rakhmonov.

Over 1.5 takedowns for Rakhmonov (-155)
"I think shop costs the truth won't be backing Neil"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, despite noting the odds are too wide. He questions Neal's recent performances and believes Rakhmonov's wild style and grappling will be too much, though he acknowledges Neal's KO power.

Comments on odds being too wide
"I'm gonna go with shav cat rachmanov... I do not agree that he should be a six to one favorite here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Zane agrees, highlighting Neal's predictability and lack of adaptability. He notes Rakhmonov's willingness to experiment and clinch, and that Neal's straight-line entries will lead to clinches where Rakhmonov can dominate. He sees Neal's only path as an early knockout, but Rakhmonov's size and confidence make that unlikely.

"Neil will also lead himself to the clinch. He's going to get wrestled in the clinch."
WIN vs Neil Magny
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 4:58 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 11 of 22 50% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Neil Magny 0 19 of 36 52% 56 of 79 2 of 2 100% 1 0 9:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 7 of 10 70% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Neil Magny 0 12 of 20 60% 27 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:43
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 4 of 12 33% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Neil Magny 0 7 of 16 43% 29 of 41 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 11 of 22 50% 6 of 16 2 of 2 3 of 4 8 of 16 0 of 0 3 of 6
Neil Magny 19 of 36 52% 17 of 34 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 10 0 of 0 14 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 7 of 10 70% 4 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 5
Neil Magny 12 of 20 60% 11 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 11 of 19
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 4 of 12 33% 2 of 10 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 1
Neil Magny 7 of 16 43% 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 3 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov confidently, noting his 100% finish rate and well-rounded skills. He expects Rakhmonov to have success striking but ultimately lean on his wrestling for the win, similar to how Michael Chiesa took Magny down four times. He believes Magny's recent performances against Max Griffin and Jeff Neal show vulnerability.

"i like shaft cat to have success striking but ultimately lean on his wrestling for the win shove cat rachmanoff is my pick and i'm pretty confident"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by first-round knockout. He is very confident, citing Rakhmonov's 100% finish rate (8 KO, 7 sub), power in hands and kicks, and underrated submission game. He notes Magny's poor chin (dropped often, finished 6 times) and that he was dropped by Max Griffin. He sees Magny's only path as holding Rakhmonov against the cage, but doubts judges will score that. He expects Rakhmonov to hurt and finish Magny early.

Rakhmonov wins by KO in round 1
"i think he hurts magne bad i think he finished him in the very first round and i think he does it by knockout so give me shove rock banav"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody is sold on Rakhmonov as a finisher with excellent submission game and power. He notes Magni hasn't been finished in a while but thinks Rakhmonov's precision and finishing ability will get the job done. He recommends Rakhmonov inside the distance at -135.

Rakhmonov inside the distance -135 at DraftKings
"i think if you're gonna play this line rachmaninov 15 wins 15 finishes minus 135 at draftkings sportsbook i think that's the play"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Magni's recent performance against Max Griffin was poor and age may be catching up. He thinks Rakhmonov is precise and fights long, and he leans towards inside the distance by knockout.

"i would lean towards inside the distance by knockout yeah"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The host picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting that Max Griffin dropped Neil Magny and almost won, and Rakhmonov is much better than Griffin. He believes Rakhmonov will finish Magny in the first round, possibly by submission (d'arce choke). He cites Magny's history of losing to top competition and his inability to outgrapple Rakhmonov.

first round finish prediction, d'arce choke
"i am going to go with chavcat rachmanov over neil magna"
KO (spinning hook kick and punches) R1 4:10 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · Feb 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 1 13 of 28 46% 16 of 31 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:52
Carlston Harris 0 10 of 27 37% 15 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 1 13 of 28 46% 16 of 31 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:52
Carlston Harris 0 10 of 27 37% 15 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 13 of 28 46% 10 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 20 0 of 0 4 of 8
Carlston Harris 10 of 27 37% 3 of 13 6 of 10 1 of 4 8 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 13 of 28 46% 10 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 20 0 of 0 4 of 8
Carlston Harris 10 of 27 37% 3 of 13 6 of 10 1 of 4 8 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Carlston Harris vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov

Round 1
It’s a welterweight rumble on the docket now between two surging prospects each looking for their third win in as many tries when Rakhmonov (14-0, 2-0 UFC) takes on Harris (17-4, 2-0 UFC). This classic battle of Kazakhstan vs. Guyana will draw the attention of referee Mike Beltran, although the tensions are not high as they show respect with a touch of gloves. The center of the cage immediately belongs to Rakhmonov, who swats away a punch to the body as he slowly advances. Harris kicks the body and swipes out with a left as Rakhmonov comes towards him, and Harris whiffs on a big right hand as well. Harris has a left hand bounce off the cheek, only to walk into a one-two that makes him bend over. Harris fires back with a strike to the body, as he lunges in with a few right hands to the torso. Rakhmonov’s volume is low, as the Kazakh picks his shots from range. Rakhmonov catches a swinging Harris with a right hand, and Harris recklessly attacks and gets kicked hard to the body with a spinning kick. Rakhmonov races ahead, sensing he might have hurt “Mocambique,” and he lands a body shot before Harris grabs hold of him. They dance back and forth in pursuit of takedowns from each man, and Rakhmonov pushes him hard against the fence before lifting Harris in the air. Harris manages to keep his balance as Rakhmonov lifts him up, sets him down and picks him up again to elevate and drop. The Guyana native turns Rakhmonov to the fence, and he starts stomping on toes in an old-school manner. While Harris thwarts one trip attempt, the second succeeds, and Rakhmonov drops his foe right on his head. Harris keeps moving, scrambling well enough to get back to his feet without issue.
In the blink of an eye, Rakhmonov spins with a hook kick to the head, and the heel smashes into the side of Harris’ dome. Harris topples to the mat, and Rakhmonov leaps down to hunt for a finish. Harris throws his legs up to try to keep Rakhmonov off of him, but Rakhmonov tosses them aside and drops down hammers in the form of punches. “Nomad” blasts Harris a couple times with long standing-to-ground punches until Harris’ consciousness is stripped away, and Beltran is quick to notice this and halt the fight.
That’s 15 wins in 15 tries for Rakhmonov, with all 15 ending inside the distance. As he makes the sign to the crowd for dollar bills, he also signals to the UFC that he is a serious contender on the rise at 170 pounds.

The Official Result
Shavkat Rakhmonov def. Carlston Harris R1 4:10 via KO (Spinning Hook Kick and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov but warns the odds are too wide. He notes Rakhmonov is a special prospect with finishes everywhere, but Harris is a gamer with solid grappling and opportunistic submissions. Angelo gives the edge to Rakhmonov for his power and wrestling, but expects a tough fight. He suggests buying a round on the judges' scorecards.

Odds comment: Rakhmonov is a 3-to-1 favorite, but Angelo thinks it's closer. Suggests betting on the fight to go to decision.
"rachmaninov is the pick don't let the odds fool you it's not the lock that they think it is"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody is torn but leans Rakhmonov. He loves Rakhmonov's skills and thinks he is a future star. He notes that Harris is a savvy veteran with good grappling and power, and that Rakhmonov had some clinch struggles against Cowboy Oliveira. However, he thinks Rakhmonov's overall game is superior and that he will get the job done.

"i'm backing rack mono but again where have i been getting burned is having too much faith in these guys"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Daniel Levi picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, praising his well-rounded game, durability, and finishing ability. He notes Rakhmonov has beaten solid competition and has a 77-inch reach. Levi believes Carlston Harris may gas in later rounds due to his bouncing movement, while Rakhmonov's cardio and pressure will take over. He respects Harris's awkward power and experience but sees Rakhmonov as a buzzsaw who will outwork him down the stretch.

"the pick is shaft cat but all respect to carlson i enjoy watching him fight too"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Lock of the Night favors Rakhmonov, citing his cleaner striking and better gas tank. He notes that Rakhmonov gives up double underhooks easily, which is Harris's strength, but believes Rakhmonov's jiu-jitsu and cardio will allow him to take over later. He expects Rakhmonov to clip Harris and finish via ground and pound or submission. He likes the over 1.5 rounds and Rakhmonov inside the distance.

over 1.5 rounds -140, Rakhmonov inside the distance +100, Rakhmonov in round 3 +1000
"i think shabcat's grappling is legit i think it's good his jiu jitsu is good"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul is high on Rakhmonov, calling him a future title challenger. He notes Rakhmonov's smooth striking, good wrestling, and physical strength. He acknowledges that Harris is a live underdog with good grappling and power, but he thinks Rakhmonov's skills are special. He is backing Rakhmonov but admits he has been burned by having too much faith in prospects.

"as of now i'm backing rack mono but again where have i been getting burned is having too much faith in these guys"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Carlston Harris

The MMA Guru picks Carlston Harris as an upset, calling it an 'evens matchup' despite wide odds. He notes Harris has beaten a Dagestani phenom before (Sajid Izakanev) and is more explosive. He predicts a second-round TKO, with Harris cracking Rakhmonov on the chin and finishing with ground strikes. He criticizes Rakhmonov's previous competition as weak.

TKO, round 2, upset pick, odds comment (should be evens)
"i'm going to go with carlston harris over shafkat rachmanov and i think it's an absolute disaster that this fight is so far apart in odds i think this is an evens matchup"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:10 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Jun 26, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 21 of 35 60% 64 of 81 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:25
Michel Prazeres 0 6 of 14 42% 32 of 40 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 10 of 17 58% 46 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:23
Michel Prazeres 0 5 of 10 50% 31 of 36 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:54
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 11 of 18 61% 18 of 27 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:02
Michel Prazeres 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 21 of 35 60% 15 of 26 6 of 8 0 of 1 10 of 20 4 of 4 7 of 11
Michel Prazeres 6 of 14 42% 1 of 6 0 of 2 5 of 6 6 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 10 of 17 58% 6 of 11 4 of 5 0 of 1 4 of 9 4 of 4 2 of 4
Michel Prazeres 5 of 10 50% 1 of 5 0 of 1 4 of 4 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 11 of 18 61% 9 of 15 2 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 11 0 of 0 5 of 7
Michel Prazeres 1 of 4 25% 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting his 100% finish rate, ability to win anywhere, and the massive reach advantage. He acknowledges Prazeres' desperation takedowns and competence on the ground but believes Rakhmonov can win anywhere. Angelo is confident but notes the over on rounds as a possible prop.

over on rounds
"i think rachmanoff can win anywhere and and basically will win anywhere"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by third round KO, citing massive physical advantages (13 years younger, 12-inch reach advantage) and Prazeres's long layoff, age (39), and PED suspension. He notes Rakhmonov's 100% finish rate and well-rounded skills, while Prazeres has never been finished but may gas out. He expects Rakhmonov to pull away as the fight goes on.

by KO, third round
"i'm going to say rock band wins by third round ko"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody picks Rakhmonov, citing his reach advantage and youth. He notes Prazeres is 39, coming off a two-year USADA suspension, and looked bad in his last fight. He thinks Prazeres' best weapon (size and strength at 155) is neutralized at 170. Rakhmonov's length and striking should allow him to pick Prazeres apart if he can stuff takedowns. Cody expects Prazeres to press early but fade.

"i would have to go again with another favorite chavez mount rockmon who i was high coming into the ufc cash that ticket at a good odds in my opinion over cowboy oliveira"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Jacob picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, echoing Angelo's point that Rakhmonov has more ways to win. He notes Prazeres has many decisions and is not a finisher. The only worry is if Rakhmonov chases a guillotine and ends up on his back. Jacob has Rakhmonov in his lineup at 9100.

"i'm gonna take a line out of your uh playbook because you always say when one fighter just has more ways to win than the other fighter i think that's exactly what this is with rakhmanov"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Rakhmonov is a promising prospect with a strong grappling game, but he needs to prove himself against a veteran like Prazeres. Prazeres has never been finished and has a non-existent neck, making submissions difficult. Rakhmonov should control the fight and win a decision. However, the price is too high for a fighter with only one UFC win, so I'm not making him my lock.

Rakhmonov by decision
"I like rachmaninov here i think he wins by decision but i'm not running home yet to uh throw him into all my parleys"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul picks Rakhmonov, noting his finishing ability and reach advantage. He thinks Prazeres is too old and off a long layoff to be effective. He expects Rakhmonov to keep the fight at range and eventually find a finish. He is not worried about Prazeres' takedowns because Rakhmonov is a combat sambo specialist.

"rachmanoff i i didn't think that his his debut was all that impressive but i think it's onwards and upwards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov by first-round guillotine choke, predicting he will hurt Prazeres on the feet, prompting a panic takedown that Rakhmonov will capitalize on. He acknowledges Prazeres' underrated resume but notes his age (39) and long layoff (over two years) as major concerns. He trusts Rakhmonov's undefeated record and ability to overcome adversity.

first round guillotine choke
"i'm gonna pick him to win by guillotine again"
WIN vs Alex Oliveira
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 4:40 · UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Oct 24, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 9 of 18 50% 16 of 26 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:04
Alex Oliveira 0 13 of 25 52% 32 of 44 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 9 of 18 50% 16 of 26 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:04
Alex Oliveira 0 13 of 25 52% 32 of 44 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 9 of 18 50% 3 of 9 3 of 5 3 of 4 4 of 12 5 of 6 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 13 of 25 52% 6 of 14 4 of 8 3 of 3 10 of 19 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 9 of 18 50% 3 of 9 3 of 5 3 of 4 4 of 12 5 of 6 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 13 of 25 52% 6 of 14 4 of 8 3 of 3 10 of 19 3 of 6 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting he bet him at +135. He believes Rakhmonov is the higher output fighter and that Oliveira's takedown defense is suspect. He predicts a third-round knockout, as Oliveira has been finished before. He also notes Oliveira is on short notice.

third round knockout, inside the distance
"give me a shove cat rachmanov i want to say he can win a decision but he's never done that before i'm gonna pick him to win inside the distance here uh give me a third round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Alex Oliveira

Daniel Levi picks Alex Oliveira, disagreeing with the line and stating Oliveira should be a favorite. He believes Rakhmonov is overrated due to being mistaken for Russian, and that Oliveira's body of work and physicality will be too much. He warns Oliveira not to pull a stunt and expects him to win by decision, possibly by pinning Rakhmonov against the fence and kneeing the body.

Oliveira should be at least -185; Rakhmonov is not Russian but Kazakh; Oliveira missed weight at 173 lbs but has won after missing weight before
"i'm going with alex cowboy oliveira to defeat shavatt rockman"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The host likes Shavkat Rakhmonov as a dog, citing his undefeated record, finishing ability, and strong ground game. He notes that Alex Oliveira is a wild card with cardio issues and inconsistent performances. He sees value at +155 but is not fully committed.

under 2.5 rounds
"i do like the rachmaninov line at least plus 155 it's not too bad"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Rakhmonov is undefeated (12-0), has run through M1 and Battle of the Nomads, and has beaten experienced opponents. He believes Oliveira is overrated as a 2-to-1 favorite, has been KO'd many times, and is taking the fight on short notice at an older age.

first round TKO
"i think chefcat rachmandov is going to go out there get the upset and get himself a first round tko finish"
Alex Oliveira - Fight History
LOSS vs Kevin Holland
TKO (elbows) R2 0:38 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Holland 1 50 of 76 65% 51 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Alex Oliveira 0 21 of 44 47% 21 of 44 2 of 3 66% 1 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Holland 0 31 of 50 62% 31 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Oliveira 0 19 of 39 48% 19 of 39 2 of 3 66% 1 0 0:22
2 Kevin Holland 1 19 of 26 73% 20 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Alex Oliveira 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Holland 50 of 76 65% 24 of 48 3 of 5 23 of 23 34 of 52 0 of 1 16 of 23
Alex Oliveira 21 of 44 47% 6 of 28 7 of 8 8 of 8 20 of 43 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Holland 31 of 50 62% 7 of 24 3 of 5 21 of 21 30 of 48 0 of 1 1 of 1
Alex Oliveira 19 of 39 48% 6 of 25 6 of 7 7 of 7 18 of 38 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Kevin Holland 19 of 26 73% 17 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 4 0 of 0 15 of 22
Alex Oliveira 2 of 5 40% 0 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Alex Oliveira

Round 1
Many expect that this welterweight scrap on the docket now is a sure-fire “Fight of the Night” candidate, as both Holland (21-7, 1 NC; 8-4, 1 NC UFC) and Oliveira (22-11-1, 2 NC; 11-9, 1 NC UFC) love to put on a show. Both men had no issue making the 171-pound limit, and they appear to be fired up and excited to get after it. Referee Chris Tognoni wrangles them long enough to get them to stand behind their respective black lines, and when the fight begins, they rush together to touch gloves. Holland leads the dance with a low kick that connects and a high kick that whizzes past the head of “Cowboy.” Holland connects with another leg kick, drawing a reaction from Oliveira and a response with one of his own. Holland scores a third low kick to the calf, and he just misses when Oliveira wings a big right hook at him. Holland continues to chip away from the outside, and Oliveira catches him on the way in with a right hand counter that knocks “Trailblazer” off his feet. Holland is able to jump back up to his feet and block a flying knee that soars towards him, and he gets back to poking with calf kicks. Holland lunges forward with a right hand, and Oliveira is right there to return fire with a swiping right hook. The punches from Oliveira make Holland lean off-balance. Holland gets cracked with a right hand as he advances, and when he falls to the ground, he laces his legs up for a leglock. Oliveira is able to step out of danger, and he lifts Holland up and slams him down to the mat. Holland is able to scramble away, and he blasts “Cowboy” in the face with a crisp right hand that puts the Brazilian on rubber legs. Not one to shy away from a brawl, Oliveira swings right back and gets Holland’s respect with a few power shots that make Holland’s rear leg lock up for a second. Both men gather themselves and get back to kickboxing range, where Holland is comfortable working with leg kicks and away from the swinging punches that whiz at him. Oliveira chops down Holland’s lead leg with a kick that is much heavier than the ones Holland are throwing, and Holland does a twirl and comes back out swinging. Holland kicks low, and he has it checked, but it seems to have affected Oliveira as well. Oliveira tries to grab the kick, but when it lands, he throws back at Holland. Holland spins from the kick, and he gets snagged against from the Brazilian. In a ridiculous scramble, Oliveira takes his foe’s back and cinches up a rear-naked choke. Instead of being concerned at all, “Trailblazer” motions to thumbs-up signs from each hand to the camera, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira

Round 2
The hands get touched to start off the second round, and Oliveira appears to come out limping. Despite this, Oliveira charges ahead with a low kick, and he gets clipped with a small right hand counter. Holland smells blood, and he races out drop hammers on his wounded opponent. The knees of “Cowboy” give way beneath him and he crumbles to the mat, and Holland can see the finish line and delivers a brutal salvo of punches to end the fight. As Oliveira flails and protects himself from harm, Holland switches to elbows and smashes them in his adversary’s face one after the other. Unleashing the thunder, Holland gives it everything he has to record the finish, and Tognoni jumps in to pull Holland off of a wrecked “Cowboy.” There is no ill will between the two after the furious five-plus minutes of ferocity, and they hug it out to celebrate a hard-fought battle.

The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Alex Oliveira R2 0:38 via TKO (Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2022 (8 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Angelo picks Kevin Holland, noting his improved takedown defense and dedication to wrestling. He thinks Oliveira's leg kicks are dangerous but Holland's hands will be the difference. He expects Oliveira to stay on his feet, allowing Holland to settle into a rhythm and let his hands fly. He calls it potential fight of the night.

"i think kevin holland gets it done in what might be fight of the night"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win, likely by submission. He notes that Oliveira is on a three-fight skid and appears to be slowing down at 34, while Holland is younger and motivated. Brady believes Holland's BJJ black belt will be a threat if Oliveira attempts takedowns, as Oliveira has been submitted six times. He also thinks Holland's striking and reach advantage will be key, though he questions Holland's fight IQ. Brady is comfortable picking Holland but not laying -300 on him.

Holland by submission
"i do like kevin hall to win this fight if um the weight cut i think it's gonna go good"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Cody likes Holland's striking advantage and reach, and believes his improved wrestling from training with Johny Hendricks will help him stay on the feet. He notes Oliveira is not a chain wrestler and has poor cardio, while Holland has good jiu-jitsu off his back. Cody has Holland in a parlay with Covington and also likes the submission prop at +800.

Parlayed with Colby Covington; Holland by submission at +800 (DraftKings)
"i think you know striking at range kevin holland's got the better boxing here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland to win by submission. He notes that Holland has a massive size and reach advantage at 170, and that Oliveira's best days are behind him. He expects Oliveira to shoot a sloppy takedown and get caught in a choke. He also mentions that Holland has been working on his grappling and has submission wins. He parlayed Holland with Paddy Pimblett for two units.

parlayed with Paddy Pimblett for 2 units
"i think alex oliveira shoots that sloppy shot and gets submitted eventually i do think that kevin holland lights him up with big body kicks maybe even drops him with a straight right and and capitalizes on an open neck …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Holland's striking is pristine at range, and the drop to 170 should help his takedown defense against smaller opponents. Oliveira has cardio issues and a tendency to give up. Holland will likely stay safe, avoid Oliveira's leg kicks and wrestling, and find a knockout in the later rounds. Oliveira's wild style could cause problems early, but Holland's conditioning and skill should prevail.

Holland wins inside the distance (round 3), sprinkle on round 3 prop
"my prediction here is actually the uh it's gonna be kevin holland inside the distance but i think it's gonna be a little bit later on in this fight probably second or third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Paul dismisses the trap-line narrative, arguing Holland's wrestling has improved significantly since the Brunson and Vettori fights. He highlights Holland's training with Johny Hendricks and his performance against Kyle Daukaus, where he defended takedowns well. Paul notes Oliveira is not a high-volume wrestler and has a three-fight losing streak, while Holland is big and durable. He also mentions a standing guillotine as a potential finish.

Holland by submission (standing guillotine) mentioned as a possibility
"low-key low-key well i got holland that's high key but low-key what's the holland by submission prop"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The MMA Guru calls Kevin Holland a lock over Alex Oliveira, citing Oliveira's decreased durability since a grenade attack and his tendency to slow down in fights. He believes Holland's youth, durability, and scrappiness will overwhelm Oliveira, predicting a second-round TKO. He notes that Oliveira has been chinned easily recently and that Holland's weight cut to welterweight should be manageable.

method: TKO, round: 2
"i'm going to call a second round ko for kevin holland over alex oliveira"
LOSS vs Niko Price
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Oct 02, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Niko Price 0 65 of 112 58% 83 of 131 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:14
Alex Oliveira 0 64 of 116 55% 108 of 167 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Niko Price 0 7 of 17 41% 15 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alex Oliveira 0 16 of 22 72% 34 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:48
2 Niko Price 0 19 of 35 54% 29 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:43
Alex Oliveira 0 14 of 26 53% 21 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Niko Price 0 39 of 60 65% 39 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Alex Oliveira 0 34 of 68 50% 53 of 91 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Niko Price 65 of 112 58% 31 of 72 17 of 23 17 of 17 56 of 99 2 of 2 7 of 11
Alex Oliveira 64 of 116 55% 37 of 83 7 of 11 20 of 22 45 of 93 2 of 2 17 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Niko Price 7 of 17 41% 3 of 13 1 of 1 3 of 3 5 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 16 of 22 72% 9 of 14 0 of 1 7 of 7 8 of 13 1 of 1 7 of 8
2 Niko Price 19 of 35 54% 9 of 25 4 of 4 6 of 6 12 of 24 0 of 0 7 of 11
Alex Oliveira 14 of 26 53% 6 of 16 1 of 2 7 of 8 11 of 22 0 of 0 3 of 4
3 Niko Price 39 of 60 65% 19 of 34 12 of 18 8 of 8 39 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 34 of 68 50% 22 of 53 6 of 8 6 of 7 26 of 58 1 of 1 7 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alex Oliveira

Angelo picks Alex Oliveira, assuming veteran savvy will prevail over Niko Price's wildness. He notes that Oliveira is more technical, has more experience, and has more ways to win, but he often gets sucked into brawls. Angelo expects Oliveira to use leg kicks to slow Price down and fight a smart fight. He likes Oliveira in DraftKings at $7,800 and recommends using slates for monkey knife fight to bet on Oliveira's more. He acknowledges that Price could win with a crazy knockout.

more on Alex Oliveira in monkey knife fight slates
"i am gonna pick oliveira here i assume that is veteran savvy he'll fight a smart fight not succumb to his instincts not get sucked into god knows what sloppy war"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 30, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Big Brady picks Niko Price to win inside the distance, citing Oliveira's poor recent form (2-5 in last 7, looking like he doesn't want to be there). Price is the hungrier fighter, comes forward with volume, and doesn't slow down. Oliveira has been finished multiple times (5 submissions, 1 KO) and has slowed down in recent fights. Brady expects Price to finish Oliveira early, possibly by submission given Oliveira's submission losses, and thinks this could be Oliveira's last fight if he loses.

Price inside the distance (KO or submission)
"give me a price give me price to win inside the distance i think he does finish oliveira"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Cody picks Niko Price, noting that Oliveira has declined significantly and is a one-round fighter with poor cardio. Price is competitive in his losses and has shown he can push the pace and wear opponents down. He expects Price to stuff takedowns, keep the fight standing, and take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Price has a baby on the way, which might motivate him.

"minus 165 i got to go with niko price"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Niko Price

Daniel Levi picks Niko Price but expresses concern about laying -190 on him, as he prefers Price as an underdog. He notes Price's improved volume and resilience, while Oliveira is a seasoned vet with clinch knees and power but has shown questionable durability and a tendency to tap quickly. Levi expects a three-round war and thinks Price will edge it out due to digging deeper. He acknowledges a finish is possible but leans decision.

fight of the night candidate
"nico's a guy i'd rather lay a dog price on unless it's guaranteed that this is a first round finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Niko Price

I think Price has improved his volume and grappling, while Oliveira has declined. Price is the more durable and active fighter. Oliveira is a wild card but has looked poor lately. I like Price by KO at +150 and the under 2.5 rounds. Price should overwhelm Oliveira.

Price by KO +150, under 2.5 rounds -145
"I like price here i like price i'm gonna take him by ko as well"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Paul also picks Price, surprised the line is only -165. He notes that Oliveira looks over the hill, with poor weight cuts and lethargic performances. Price has been competitive against top competition and should have a cardio advantage. He expects Price to win by decision or late stoppage.

"i would have to go with nico price in this spot even though it's -165"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Niko Price

The MMA Guru picks Niko Price, noting Alex Oliveira's tendency to fade in the third round and his recent chin issues. Price has cardio and toughness advantages, and he has KO power. He predicts Price will win by TKO in the third round after a competitive first two rounds.

Price by TKO in round 3
"i'm going with nico price tko in the third round"
LOSS vs Randy Brown
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:50 · UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Apr 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Brown 0 7 of 12 58% 9 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Oliveira 1 16 of 32 50% 23 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Brown 0 7 of 12 58% 9 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Oliveira 1 16 of 32 50% 23 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Brown 7 of 12 58% 1 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 5 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 16 of 32 50% 10 of 24 1 of 2 5 of 6 8 of 21 0 of 0 8 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Brown 7 of 12 58% 1 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 5 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 16 of 32 50% 10 of 24 1 of 2 5 of 6 8 of 21 0 of 0 8 of 11
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Alex Oliveira

Big Brady picks Oliveira to win a close decision as an underdog. He notes Oliveira's inconsistency is a concern, but if the best version shows up, he can mix in takedowns and top control. He thinks the fight should be closer to a pick'em and likes the value on Oliveira. He also mentions Brown's chin is questionable.

Oliveira by decision
"i'm going to take the underdog here in oliveira to win a very very very close decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody is high on Brown, noting his consistent improvement and physical advantages. He points out Oliveira's lack of motivation and poor recent performances. He expects Brown to use his length and striking to control the fight, and thinks Oliveira will fade if he doesn't get an early finish. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds and suggests live betting on Brown.

Over 2.5 rounds (-130), live betting on Brown after round 1
"randy brown is considerably bigger um this is a real welterweight that oliveira's and like you know oliveira is coming off of that loss"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel picks Randy Brown, believing his length and improving game will be too much for Alex Oliveira. He notes Oliveira's inconsistency and that Brown will pull away in the later rounds, possibly getting a finish. He expects the first round to be close.

"i'm gonna go with randy brown to get this done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

I lean Brown here. He has better cardio and technique, and Oliveira is inconsistent. Brown should use his reach and jab to outpoint Oliveira. I like Brown by decision at +225, and the over 1.5 at -225 is also solid. However, Oliveira could surprise with a wild performance, so confidence is not high.

Brown by decision +225
"i do lean brown here though i think he has the better cardio"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Paul picks Brown, citing his improvement, length, and reach advantage. He notes Oliveira's distractions (nine kids, eight baby mamas) and declining interest. He expects Brown to use his jab and distance to outbox Oliveira, and thinks Oliveira's best days are behind him. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds and suggests live betting on Brown after round one.

Over 2.5 rounds (-130), live betting on Brown after round 1
"i'm expecting brown to to roll here minus 145 just almost seems too good to be true"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown by decision. He notes that Oliveira is injury-prone and often breaks toes or ribs during fights, while Brown is more durable. He predicts Oliveira wins the first round but Brown comes back in the second and third, winning 29-28.

"i'm gonna go randy brown though"
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 4:40 · UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Oct 24, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 9 of 18 50% 16 of 26 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:04
Alex Oliveira 0 13 of 25 52% 32 of 44 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 9 of 18 50% 16 of 26 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:04
Alex Oliveira 0 13 of 25 52% 32 of 44 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 9 of 18 50% 3 of 9 3 of 5 3 of 4 4 of 12 5 of 6 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 13 of 25 52% 6 of 14 4 of 8 3 of 3 10 of 19 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 9 of 18 50% 3 of 9 3 of 5 3 of 4 4 of 12 5 of 6 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 13 of 25 52% 6 of 14 4 of 8 3 of 3 10 of 19 3 of 6 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting he bet him at +135. He believes Rakhmonov is the higher output fighter and that Oliveira's takedown defense is suspect. He predicts a third-round knockout, as Oliveira has been finished before. He also notes Oliveira is on short notice.

third round knockout, inside the distance
"give me a shove cat rachmanov i want to say he can win a decision but he's never done that before i'm gonna pick him to win inside the distance here uh give me a third round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Alex Oliveira

Daniel Levi picks Alex Oliveira, disagreeing with the line and stating Oliveira should be a favorite. He believes Rakhmonov is overrated due to being mistaken for Russian, and that Oliveira's body of work and physicality will be too much. He warns Oliveira not to pull a stunt and expects him to win by decision, possibly by pinning Rakhmonov against the fence and kneeing the body.

Oliveira should be at least -185; Rakhmonov is not Russian but Kazakh; Oliveira missed weight at 173 lbs but has won after missing weight before
"i'm going with alex cowboy oliveira to defeat shavatt rockman"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The host likes Shavkat Rakhmonov as a dog, citing his undefeated record, finishing ability, and strong ground game. He notes that Alex Oliveira is a wild card with cardio issues and inconsistent performances. He sees value at +155 but is not fully committed.

under 2.5 rounds
"i do like the rachmaninov line at least plus 155 it's not too bad"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Rakhmonov is undefeated (12-0), has run through M1 and Battle of the Nomads, and has beaten experienced opponents. He believes Oliveira is overrated as a 2-to-1 favorite, has been KO'd many times, and is taking the fight on short notice at an older age.

first round TKO
"i think chefcat rachmandov is going to go out there get the upset and get himself a first round tko finish"
WIN vs Peter Sobotta
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till · Jul 26, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Oliveira 1 45 of 93 48% 48 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Peter Sobotta 0 29 of 67 43% 30 of 68 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Oliveira 0 9 of 24 37% 9 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Peter Sobotta 0 7 of 21 33% 7 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alex Oliveira 1 17 of 33 51% 17 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Peter Sobotta 0 10 of 17 58% 11 of 18 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:46
3 Alex Oliveira 0 19 of 36 52% 22 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Peter Sobotta 0 12 of 29 41% 12 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Oliveira 45 of 93 48% 19 of 51 16 of 29 10 of 13 37 of 85 7 of 7 1 of 1
Peter Sobotta 29 of 67 43% 13 of 46 7 of 11 9 of 10 29 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Oliveira 9 of 24 37% 1 of 11 7 of 12 1 of 1 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Peter Sobotta 7 of 21 33% 2 of 13 2 of 4 3 of 4 7 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alex Oliveira 17 of 33 51% 9 of 17 5 of 11 3 of 5 11 of 27 6 of 6 0 of 0
Peter Sobotta 10 of 17 58% 4 of 10 1 of 2 5 of 5 10 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alex Oliveira 19 of 36 52% 9 of 23 4 of 6 6 of 7 17 of 34 1 of 1 1 of 1
Peter Sobotta 12 of 29 41% 7 of 23 4 of 5 1 of 1 12 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 22, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Peter Sobotta

Big Brady picks Sobotta as an underdog because he believes Sobotta has a huge ground advantage with his BJJ. He thinks the fight will hit the ground and Sobotta can win there, either by submission or decision. He is concerned about Oliveira's power but thinks Sobotta's striking has improved and the gap is not large.

Sobotta by decision
"I'm going to be taking my second underdog of the card in this fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Peter Sobotta

Daniel picks Sobotta for the upset, citing his jiu-jitsu and improved boxing. He believes Sobotta can take Oliveira's back and submit him if he avoids early damage. He acknowledges Oliveira's physicality and danger but thinks Sobotta's path to victory via submission is viable. He is worried about Oliveira bullying Sobotta early.

"i'm actually going to take him for the upset uh but i know it could go very wrong early... one back take one full mount uh and the fight might be over shortly after so i'm gonna go with peter …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Peter Sobotta

Sobotta is the more technical fighter with superior grappling and submission skills. Oliveira is wild and has a poor gas tank, often fading in the third round. Sobotta can take Oliveira down and submit him late, or outpoint him on the feet. The line should be closer, and Sobotta offers value at plus money.

Sobotta by submission in round 3
"i think he's very very skilled and oliver again just being the wild man that he is he's a very beatable fighter"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Alex Oliveira

The MMA Guru picks Alex Oliveira, noting his activity and momentum from a win over Max Griffin. He points out that Sobotta hasn't fought since March 2018 and lost to Leon Edwards. He also mentions Oliveira's reach advantage and jiu-jitsu, and believes Oliveira will get the job done.

"I'm going to be going with Alex Oliviera here, but I understand that Sabot is a dangerous opponent."
WIN vs Max Griffin
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · Mar 07, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Oliveira 0 40 of 77 51% 61 of 98 1 of 5 20% 0 0 3:31
Max Griffin 0 23 of 50 46% 62 of 96 2 of 3 66% 0 1 5:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Oliveira 0 9 of 24 37% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Max Griffin 0 7 of 16 43% 23 of 35 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:38
2 Alex Oliveira 0 23 of 41 56% 24 of 42 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:34
Max Griffin 0 12 of 28 42% 19 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
3 Alex Oliveira 0 8 of 12 66% 23 of 27 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
Max Griffin 0 4 of 6 66% 20 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Oliveira 40 of 77 51% 21 of 56 11 of 13 8 of 8 35 of 67 3 of 8 2 of 2
Max Griffin 23 of 50 46% 17 of 40 4 of 8 2 of 2 20 of 47 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Oliveira 9 of 24 37% 6 of 21 3 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 21 0 of 3 0 of 0
Max Griffin 7 of 16 43% 6 of 13 1 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alex Oliveira 23 of 41 56% 9 of 27 6 of 6 8 of 8 23 of 40 0 of 1 0 of 0
Max Griffin 12 of 28 42% 9 of 24 3 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Alex Oliveira 8 of 12 66% 6 of 8 2 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 6 3 of 4 2 of 2
Max Griffin 4 of 6 66% 2 of 3 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
170: Alex Oliveira vs. Max Griffin

Round 1
Opening up the main card is a battle between two welterweights in desperate need of a win as “Cowboy” Oliveira (19-8-1, 2 NC; 9-6, 1 NC UFC) takes on Griffin (15-7, 3-5 UFC) . Drawing the assignment is referee Mark Smith. There is no glove touch, as Griffin comes out firing with a heavy one-two that just misses the mark. Griffin is racing after him, and gets clipped on the way in but does not pull back. “Pain” swings heavily, but does not connect flush, as Oliveira dances away and spins about almost to celebrate that he did not get hit. Oliveira crashes forward and dings him with a right hand before clinching up, and Griffin fights himself free. The two try to paw out their left hands for range, and Oliveira throws a right hand so hard he nearly falls over. The two both wing their punches, and Oliveira sticks out a jab. Griffin takes a one-two, and comes right back with a similar combination but does not score it. The two swing and trade at the same time, and Griffin tags him and cause Oliveira to go flailing with an uppercut. Griffin hits a takedown, and his corner screams at him to back off and do damage. In full guard, Griffin stays heavy while throwing some short punches, and Smith chides Griffin on punching to the back of the head. Griffin passes to half guard, and Oliveira tries to pull himself up the fence so Smith shouts at him to let it go. Griffin stays tight and looks to tie up Oliveira’s arm with his leg, but the Brazilian gets his arm free before interlocking his toes in the fence. Smith again warns him to let go of the cage, and has to slap Oliveira’s toes out. All the while, Griffin slowly works with some elbows and looks at an arm-triangle choke, but with Oliveira against the cage wall, he cannot get leverage to set anything up. As Oliveira springs to his feet, Griffin takes his back, but “Cowboy” rips himself free and the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin

Round 2
Like the first, Griffin practically sprints towards his opponent to land a long jab. Oliveira is ready for it, and catches him before landing two heavy leg kicks that make Griffin’s knee a little wobbly. Oliveira fires out a few more jabs, and Griffin is busted up from these shots with a cut above his right eye towards the bridge of his nose. Oliveira rushes in with a strike, and Griffin times a takedown but the Brazilian halts it. Instead, he turns the position around tries to pull for a single leg takedown, and we can see the blood pouring out of Griffin’s forehead. Smith calls in the doctor to check on the cut, which we can see came from a fierce uppercut. The doctor clears him to continue, and we are back to it. The two men start off with some jabs, and Oliveira pursues the low calf kick that is really irritating Griffin quickly. The two come together and swing, and Oliveira is timing the uppercut but cannot score it. The Brazilian lands an outside and then inside leg kick to the damaged leg, and takes a powerful right hand along the way. The two both come together with huge right hands, and both are clear of the mark with their home run shots. Griffin clinches up, but again Oliveira reverses him. In an attempt to break free, Oliveira pirouettes with a spinning elbow and Griffin is barely able to block it. Griffin shoots in low for a takedown, and Oliveira defends it with a guillotine before pushing him against the fence. After some tense but slow clinch work, “Cowboy” pursues a single but cannot get it, so Griffin breaks free and swings a heavy right hand that is short of the mark. Oliveira stings him with two more right hands, and when Griffin goes after a labored spinning back fist, Oliveira shoots low for one last takedown to seal the round. He does not land it, and the round is over with Griffin bleeding heavily.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira

Round 3
The last round kicks off with Griffin cleared to continue, as we see a separate cut under Griffin’s other eye. Oliveira scores a few long front kicks where he stabs with his toes, and then goes up top with a head kick that is blocked. Griffin tries to close the distance, and Oliveira spins him around to get a takedown. “Pain” stays strong, and spins him around while taking a few elbows to the side and back of his head. Griffin complains, and Smith warns the Brazilian as a cut has now opened on the top of Griffin’s head. This fight could quickly turn into a performance from the Edwin Dewees playbook, and Oliveira separates only to hit a takedown. “Cowboy” lands on top and pursues a choke, before taking full mount, and Griffin is in a bad way as the blood pours into his eye. Oliveira pulls for a straight armlock while on top, and bails on it to end in half guard. Griffin wears a crimson mask and is grimacing as he is not likely able to see, and Oliveira capitalizes with a few short but effective punches on top. The Brazilian once more takes mount, and is starting to unload punches while Griffin tries to blink his eyes clear. Griffin scrambles and manages to reverse the position, and Oliveira falls to his back when he cannot come close to sinking in a guillotine choke. Griffin steps over to half guard and drops some elbows on his man, and Oliveira is holding on for dear life. With 80 seconds to go, Griffin is giving Oliveira his best “You don’t know where I’ve been, Lou” impression as he bleeds down on his opponent without getting many strikes off. Griffin grinds and starts to pour it on with some very short elbows and punches to try to steal the round. The judges have their hands full in this round, as Griffin ends the fight on top. What a bloody mess of a battle, but it sure was fun.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (29-28 Oliveira)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (29-28 Griffin)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (29-28 Oliveira)

The Official Result
Alex Oliveira def. Max Griffin via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Alex Oliveira

Daniel picks Alex Oliveira to win by TKO in the first round, believing this is a step down in competition for Oliveira. He thinks Griffin is basic, slow, flat-footed, and gasses out, while Oliveira is a monster in the clinch and stand-up. He acknowledges Oliveira's susceptibility to submissions but doesn't think Griffin is capable of exploiting that.

Daniel says the line might be too low because in their primes Oliveira would have put Griffin down quickly. He picks Oliveira by TKO finish in the first round.
"I'm gonna go Alex cowboy by TKO finish in the first round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Alex Oliveira

Oliveira has better striking and power; he can hurt Griffin early and finish. However, if he blows his wad like against Mike Perry, Griffin's wrestling and cardio could take over. Griffin has shown ability to wrestle and grind. The host was considering betting Griffin but changed his mind after watching tape. He picks Oliveira by second-round TKO but is not confident enough to bet.

"I think that Oliveira is gonna have a little bit more success on the feet and landing the bigger shots here... I'll go with Oliveira by second-round TKO."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 27, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Max Griffin

The MMA Guru initially leans toward Alex Oliveira but changes his pick to Max Griffin. He expects Oliveira to have early success, possibly dropping Griffin, but Griffin will come back and grind out a decision win by controlling the last two rounds on the ground. He notes both fighters are scrappers and this is a 50/50 fight.

"I'm going with max Griffin Oliveira is gonna have success early he's maybe gonna drop max Griffin and put him in some trouble max Griffin's gonna come back and grind out a decision win"
LOSS vs Nicolas Dalby
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · Sep 28, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nicolas Dalby 0 31 of 84 36% 64 of 122 1 of 4 25% 0 1 5:29
Alex Oliveira 0 18 of 47 38% 31 of 65 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nicolas Dalby 0 7 of 29 24% 7 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:34
Alex Oliveira 0 12 of 32 37% 12 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
2 Nicolas Dalby 0 11 of 29 37% 34 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:59
Alex Oliveira 0 6 of 13 46% 9 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:26
3 Nicolas Dalby 0 13 of 26 50% 23 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:56
Alex Oliveira 0 0 of 2 0% 10 of 16 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nicolas Dalby 31 of 84 36% 19 of 64 5 of 12 7 of 8 9 of 45 11 of 18 11 of 21
Alex Oliveira 18 of 47 38% 14 of 40 0 of 2 4 of 5 13 of 36 1 of 3 4 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nicolas Dalby 7 of 29 24% 0 of 18 3 of 7 4 of 4 4 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 1
Alex Oliveira 12 of 32 37% 9 of 27 0 of 1 3 of 4 8 of 24 0 of 0 4 of 8
2 Nicolas Dalby 11 of 29 37% 7 of 21 2 of 5 2 of 3 3 of 14 8 of 15 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 6 of 13 46% 5 of 11 0 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 10 1 of 3 0 of 0
3 Nicolas Dalby 13 of 26 50% 12 of 25 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 11 of 20
Alex Oliveira 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alex Oliveira vs. Nicolas Dalby

Round 1
Going back to welterweight, the always-exciting Oliveira (19-7-1, 2 NC; 9-5, 1 NC UFC) tries to spoil the homecoming of Denmark's Dalby (17-3-1, 1 NC; 1-2-1 UFC). In his walk to the cage, Dalby is accompanied by the Denmark National Anthem, as performed by his fiancée Dzifa Adjo Akpalu. The referee taking charge of the cage is Rebin Saber. Oliveira opens up with a low leg kick, and then charges forward with a slew of punches that all fall short. The crowd is electric for their home country fighter, who scores a few slapping leg kicks while trying to find his range on the elusive Brazilian. Dalby leaps through the air with a knee, and as he falls shy of the target, Oliveira tries to counter on the way down, but he too misses. Dalby scores an inside leg kick, and Oliveira replies with one that Dalby checks. "Cowboy" whiffs with a spinning wheel kick, and Dalby responds with a spinning back kick that is nowhere near the mark. Dalby chases Oliveira down with a few punches, punctuated by a head kick that does not land flush. The Dane again blitzes forward, partially connecting with a right hand while avoiding the hard counter from the Brazilian. As Oliveira throws a big right over the top, Dalby shoots in for a takedown, but Oliveira stuffs it. Dalby presses Oliveira against the fence and tries to trip his opponent down, but Oliveira keeps his balance and stays upright, although his back is against the cage. Unsuccessful on another trip, it is actually Oliveira who gets the fight down, scooping the legs of Dalby while attempting to take the back. Returning to full guard, Oliveira drops down a loud right hand and little more, while Dalby tries to set up a triangle. Oliveira shucks off the attempt and lands in half guard, before Dalby reverses position and gets Oliveira down. The crowd is so loud cheering for Dalby that we cannot hear the horn sounding, but the round is over.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Dalby

Round 2
Oliveira charges forward to begin the round, but does not successfully land on his first combination. Dalby plants a front kick to the chest of his adversary, and unfortunately Oliveira takes an eye poke and makes the referee stop the action. The fight resumes after a very short break, and the two men trade leg kicks before slamming hooks on each other's chins. In the flurry, Dalby floats up a head kick that blasts Oliveira on the side of the head, causing the Brazilian to clinch up. This does not prove to his advantage, as Dalby circles around and scoops the legs from underneath his opponent, with Dalby landing on top to the delight of the crowd. Quickly passing to half guard, Dalby drops down a few short elbows and punches to frustrating effect, so Oliveira tries to turn out of the position. Dalby lands a few punches that might be close to the back of his opponent's head, and then hammers down a couple elbows that are quite effective. Dalby pounds Oliveira with several right hands until the Brazilian has had enough, and Oliveira powers out of the position to stand up. Dalby leans heavy against the fence, and he has successfully bloodied the nose of "Cowboy." On the break, Oliveira tries to spin with a back elbow, but Dalby dodges it and comes on strong, landing punch after punch while Oliveira turtles up. With his opponent possibly playing possum, Dalby stays patient and continues to land on Oliveira. The Brazilian falls to the canvas, and in a scramble Oliveira briefly takes position, but he falls off the back and Dalby ends up on top. Oliveira lands an illegal upkick, causing Saber to pause the action and admonish Oliveira, and stands them back up. With seconds remaining, Oliveira cracks Dalby with a left hand, but Dalby walks it off and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Dalby

Round 3
Oliveira's corner implores their fighter to "believe in yourself," causing Oliveira to smile as the final round begins. Dalby just misses with a head kick, causing the crowd to loudly gasp. Dalby shoots in for a double leg takedown and cannot land it, so Oliveira fishes for a guillotine choke. Unable to secure it, the Brazilian bails on it and spins Dalby against the fence. Oliveira tries to kick out the leg of his opponent, and lifts Dalby up and throws him to the cage floor. In side control, Oliveira throws a few knees to the body and grinds his elbow on the Dane's face. Dalby retains half guard, and is looking to sweep the Brazilian, but Oliveira stays strong and hammers down with several punches before the referee inexplicably stands them up. Not wanting to stay on the feet, Oliveira leaps into a double leg takedown, and scores it to drag Dalby back down. "Lokomotivo" rolls out and ends up on top, before taking full mount, and the crowd is deafening in support of their fighter. Dalby postures up to rain down punches and elbows, and then looks to set up an arm-triangle choke before giving it up to keep his strikes going. Dalby sits back up and smashes a few huge elbows to punctuate the fight, and the crowd is elated at Dalby's performance as the bout concludes. The two men embrace and raise their arms in the air after an exciting battle.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (30-27 Dalby)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (30-27 Dalby)

The Official Result
Nicolas Dalby def. Alex Oliveira via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
LOSS vs Mike Perry
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Jacaré vs. Hermansson · Apr 27, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mike Perry 0 48 of 137 35% 50 of 139 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:18
Alex Oliveira 0 65 of 110 59% 75 of 120 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mike Perry 0 17 of 48 35% 19 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:04
Alex Oliveira 0 20 of 29 68% 21 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
2 Mike Perry 0 16 of 34 47% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Alex Oliveira 0 21 of 36 58% 30 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:42
3 Mike Perry 0 15 of 55 27% 15 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Oliveira 0 24 of 45 53% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mike Perry 48 of 137 35% 30 of 110 7 of 16 11 of 11 42 of 125 6 of 11 0 of 1
Alex Oliveira 65 of 110 59% 48 of 90 6 of 8 11 of 12 32 of 72 18 of 19 15 of 19
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mike Perry 17 of 48 35% 11 of 37 4 of 9 2 of 2 14 of 42 3 of 6 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 20 of 29 68% 13 of 22 3 of 3 4 of 4 13 of 22 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Mike Perry 16 of 34 47% 10 of 27 2 of 3 4 of 4 13 of 29 3 of 5 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 21 of 36 58% 17 of 31 1 of 1 3 of 4 5 of 16 2 of 2 14 of 18
3 Mike Perry 15 of 55 27% 9 of 46 1 of 4 5 of 5 15 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 1
Alex Oliveira 24 of 45 53% 18 of 37 2 of 4 4 of 4 14 of 34 9 of 10 1 of 1
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting he bet him at +135. He believes Rakhmonov is the higher output fighter and that Oliveira's takedown defense is suspect. He predicts a third-round knockout, as Oliveira has been finished before. He also notes Oliveira is on short notice.

third round knockout, inside the distance
"give me a shove cat rachmanov i want to say he can win a decision but he's never done that before i'm gonna pick him to win inside the distance here uh give me a third round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Alex Oliveira

Daniel Levi picks Alex Oliveira, disagreeing with the line and stating Oliveira should be a favorite. He believes Rakhmonov is overrated due to being mistaken for Russian, and that Oliveira's body of work and physicality will be too much. He warns Oliveira not to pull a stunt and expects him to win by decision, possibly by pinning Rakhmonov against the fence and kneeing the body.

Oliveira should be at least -185; Rakhmonov is not Russian but Kazakh; Oliveira missed weight at 173 lbs but has won after missing weight before
"i'm going with alex cowboy oliveira to defeat shavatt rockman"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The host likes Shavkat Rakhmonov as a dog, citing his undefeated record, finishing ability, and strong ground game. He notes that Alex Oliveira is a wild card with cardio issues and inconsistent performances. He sees value at +155 but is not fully committed.

under 2.5 rounds
"i do like the rachmaninov line at least plus 155 it's not too bad"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Rakhmonov is undefeated (12-0), has run through M1 and Battle of the Nomads, and has beaten experienced opponents. He believes Oliveira is overrated as a 2-to-1 favorite, has been KO'd many times, and is taking the fight on short notice at an older age.

first round TKO
"i think chefcat rachmandov is going to go out there get the upset and get himself a first round tko finish"