Career Averages - Shavkat Rakhmonov
Career Averages - Alex Oliveira
Shavkat Rakhmonov - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 37 of 67 | 55% | 65 of 102 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 0 | 1 | 11:41 |
| Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 42 of 84 | 50% | 102 of 157 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 2:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 13 of 16 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:20 |
| Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 14 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 15 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 13 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 3 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
| Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 14 of 34 | 41% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 4 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 14 of 22 | 63% | 19 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
| Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 11 of 16 | 68% | 23 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 | |
| 5 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:44 |
| Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 38 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:36 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 37 of 67 | 55% | 29 of 55 | 6 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 50 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 13 |
| Ian Machado Garry | 42 of 84 | 50% | 11 of 40 | 10 of 15 | 21 of 29 | 35 of 72 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ian Machado Garry | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 9 of 18 | 50% | 9 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ian Machado Garry | 10 of 24 | 41% | 2 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 9 | 8 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 11 of 19 | 57% | 7 of 14 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ian Machado Garry | 14 of 34 | 41% | 4 of 16 | 3 of 7 | 7 of 11 | 14 of 31 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 14 of 22 | 63% | 11 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 13 |
| Ian Machado Garry | 11 of 16 | 68% | 2 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ian Machado Garry | 4 of 6 | 66% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov but is nervous. He notes Shavkat has more ways to win (KO, submission) and is dangerous everywhere, but his takedowns are not great (1 for 5 against Wonderboy) and he hasn't fought meaningful time. Ian Garry accepted this fight on short notice, which suggests he knows something. Angelo is leaning Shavkat but may just watch and enjoy.
Cody picks Rakhmonov, citing his undefeated record, finishing ability, and wins over tough opponents. He notes Rakhmonov's takedown accuracy is low but he finds the neck when needed. He has concerns about Rakhmonov's striking lulls and Garry's potential in a kickboxing match, but still favors Rakhmonov.
Connor believes Shavkat's clinch game and pressure will be decisive. He notes that Shavkat has terrible striking defense but is durable and confident, and that his ability to get into the clinch and break opponents down is reminiscent of Khabib. Connor thinks Garry will have success at range early but will eventually give ground and get caught in clinches, leading to a finish. He also mentions the training partner dynamic, where Shavkat got the better of Garry on the ground.
Daniel believes Rakhmonov's clinch work and physicality will be too much for Garry. He notes Garry's vulnerability after being dropped by Keenan Song and questions his vegan diet's effect on muscle mass. He expects Rakhmonov to close distance methodically and hand Garry his first loss.
Daniel Vreeland picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, citing that the Michael Venom Page fight showed the ceiling of Ian Garry's striking. He argues that Garry's grappling ace won't work against Rakhmonov, who has superior wrestling and submission skills. Vreeland notes Rakhmonov's striking is good enough to hang with Garry, and his finishing upside is all on his side, especially in a five-round fight where it gets worse for Garry.
Jeff Fox agrees with Rakhmonov, noting that the MVP fight was not encouraging for Garry and that this is a massive step up. He questions Garry's path to victory, suggesting a decision is possible but would mean 15 minutes of danger. Fox points out that the finishing upside is all on Rakhmonov, especially in a five-round fight, making it even worse for Garry.
Lucrative James picks Ian Garry as a significant underdog, calling it a 50/50 fight. He believes Garry's slick striking, body work, and BJJ will be enough to outpoint Rakhmonov. He notes Garry's durability is underrated and that the former sparring partner dynamic adds volatility. He trusts Garry's cardio and toughness to persevere.
Although the line is wide in favor of Rakhmonov, Gary could provide resistance with his technical striking and walk Rakhmonov into some shots. However, the ultimate difference maker will be Rakhmonov's aggressiveness, which will wear down Gary and lead to a finish within rounds three or four.
Paul picks Rakhmonov, emphasizing his finishing ability and superior competition. He criticizes Garry's hype and close fights, noting his takedown defense and cardio concerns. He thinks Rakhmonov's grappling will be the difference, but acknowledges the line is too heavy to bet heavily.
The MMA Guru picks Shavkat, but acknowledges Ian Garry's solid chance. He thinks Garry will be winning early, but Shavkat will crack him in the third or fourth round, leading to a momentum shift. He notes Garry is more likely to break (leg, hand, body shot) and that Shavkat's pressure and clinch work will be decisive. He predicts a TKO win against the cage in the late third or fourth round.
Zane agrees with Connor, highlighting Shavkat's clinch expertise and Garry's tendency to back up under pressure. He notes that Garry's risk aversion and lack of elite athleticism will be exposed, and that Shavkat's finishing ability will likely lead to a stoppage. Zane also points out that Garry's recent performances have been lackluster and that he struggles when pressured.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 28 of 36 | 77% | 73 of 88 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 2 | 0 | 7:45 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 16 of 25 | 64% | 26 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 25 of 34 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:25 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 14 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 16 of 16 | 100% | 48 of 54 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 4:20 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 28 of 36 | 77% | 24 of 31 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | 10 of 15 | 13 of 13 |
| Stephen Thompson | 16 of 25 | 64% | 6 of 15 | 7 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 12 of 20 | 60% | 9 of 16 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 10 of 14 | 71% | 3 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 16 of 16 | 100% | 15 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 13 |
| Stephen Thompson | 6 of 11 | 54% | 3 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, calling it a 'spite matchup' by the UFC. He believes Shavkat's wrestling and finishing ability will be too much for the 40-year-old Thompson, who has historically lost to heavy grapplers. He includes Shavkat in his 'anti-40 parlay'.
Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by second-round TKO, calling it a stylistic nightmare for Stephen Thompson. He highlights Rakhmonov's 100% finish rate (17 finishes), vicious ground and pound, and submission threat. Brady notes Thompson's poor takedown defense and age (40), contrasting with Rakhmonov's youth and wrestling ability. He expects Rakhmonov to take Thompson down and finish with ground strikes, similar to Belal Muhammad's near-TKO of Thompson.
Cody picks Rakhmonov but is hesitant due to the -650 price. He notes that Rakhmonov's wrestling was ineffective against Jeff Neal (0 for 4 takedowns) and that Thompson's movement and length could cause problems. However, he believes the takedown threat will be there and that Rakhmonov is younger and improving. He says he has no intention of betting the fight because the line is too high.
Daniel Vreeland picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, emphasizing that Thompson is past his prime and no longer has the power or speed to keep Rakhmonov at range. He notes that Rakhmonov is not afraid to close distance and will be better in the clinch, on the ground, and in the pocket. Vreeland doubts that 40-year-old Thompson can fight a gritty fight or survive Rakhmonov's pressure.
Jeff Fox picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, stating that Rakhmonov is a killer and Thompson is an old fighter who will take a beating. He notes that Rakhmonov is better everywhere the fight goes. Fox also mentions that Thompson's win over Kevin Holland was cumulative, not a big knockout, and that Thompson's current outfighting style won't work against Rakhmonov.
Lucrative James is confident Shavkat Rakhmonov will finish Stephen Thompson inside the distance. He believes Shavkat's pressure, clinch strikes, and takedowns will be too much for Thompson, who he thinks will get tired and cut up. He notes that Belal Muhammad almost TKO'd Thompson twice on the ground, so he sees a finish by TKO or submission as likely.
The host sees this as a horrible stylistic matchup for Thompson, as Rakhmonov is a strong grappler who will take Thompson down and finish him. He references how Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad ground out Thompson, and believes Rakhmonov is even more dangerous on top. He expects Rakhmonov to get the takedown easily, secure a dominant position, and get a TKO or submission inside the distance. He advises against betting on Thompson even at plus odds.
Paul picks Rakhmonov, believing the takedowns will be there early and often against Thompson. He acknowledges Thompson's takedown defense has been poor against wrestlers like Gilbert Burns and Kevin Holland. Paul thinks Rakhmonov will find submissions or control, though he admits the Jeff Neal fight exposed some flaws. He still sees Rakhmonov as the pick but agrees the price is too high to bet.
The Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov over Stephen Thompson, emphasizing Shavkat's size, strength, and clinch game. He notes that Thompson survived against Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns, but Shavkat's trips and top pressure will be different. He predicts Shavkat will use an outside trip from the clinch, get to half guard, and finish with an arm triangle.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 69 of 145 | 47% | 69 of 145 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 113 of 179 | 63% | 120 of 186 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 3:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 29 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 43 of 64 | 67% | 46 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 | |
| 2 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 20 of 57 | 35% | 20 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 35 of 70 | 50% | 35 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 | |
| 3 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 20 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 35 of 45 | 77% | 39 of 49 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 2:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 69 of 145 | 47% | 63 of 136 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 57 of 129 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 113 of 179 | 63% | 69 of 130 | 39 of 44 | 5 of 5 | 74 of 131 | 39 of 48 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 29 of 54 | 53% | 27 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 23 of 47 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 43 of 64 | 67% | 26 of 44 | 17 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 50 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 20 of 57 | 35% | 18 of 53 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 35 of 70 | 50% | 20 of 54 | 13 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 56 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 20 of 34 | 58% | 18 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 27 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 35 of 45 | 77% | 23 of 32 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 25 | 18 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident in Shavkat Rakhmonov, calling him an absolute savage who can submit, knock out, or outwrestle opponents. He notes that Rakhmonov is on a different level and should get the job done. Angelo thinks -500 is fine for parlays.
Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, citing his size, power, and submission game. He notes Neal has good takedown defense but was taken down by Neil Magny, and Rakhmonov is a better wrestler. He predicts a second-round submission for Rakhmonov, but acknowledges if the fight stays standing, it gets interesting.
Cody is high on Rakhmonov, calling him 'the truth' and praising his well-rounded game, clinch work, and finishing ability. He thinks Neal's power is a threat but that Rakhmonov's grappling and fight IQ will be too much. He expects Rakhmonov to win but is unsure if he finishes Neal.
Connor picks Rakhmonov confidently, noting Neal's limited toolkit (left hand, left kick) and inability to adjust. He expects Rakhmonov to use his creativity and clinch work to overwhelm Neal, who will likely run into clinches where Rakhmonov can wrestle and land strikes. He acknowledges Neal's toughness and power but sees the matchup as stylistically poor for Neal.
Jacob is confident in Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting that his toughest test on paper was Neil Magny, whom he dominated. He believes Rakhmonov is too rangy and skilled for Geoff Neal, who relies on power. Jacob expects a first or second round finish.
Rakhmonov is a pressure grappler with a 100% finish rate. Neal is a good striker but has struggled against pressure grapplers. Rakhmonov will take the fight to the ground and submit Neal. The fight doesn't go to decision.
Paul agrees with Cody that Rakhmonov is the truth and expects him to win. He notes Neal's takedown defense is good but thinks Rakhmonov is a different level. He likes the over 1.5 takedowns prop for Rakhmonov.
The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, despite noting the odds are too wide. He questions Neal's recent performances and believes Rakhmonov's wild style and grappling will be too much, though he acknowledges Neal's KO power.
Zane agrees, highlighting Neal's predictability and lack of adaptability. He notes Rakhmonov's willingness to experiment and clinch, and that Neal's straight-line entries will lead to clinches where Rakhmonov can dominate. He sees Neal's only path as an early knockout, but Rakhmonov's size and confidence make that unlikely.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 56 of 79 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 9:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 27 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:43 | |
| 2 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 29 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 11 of 22 | 50% | 6 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 |
| Neil Magny | 19 of 36 | 52% | 17 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 26 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 7 of 10 | 70% | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Neil Magny | 12 of 20 | 60% | 11 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 19 | |
| 2 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 4 of 12 | 33% | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Neil Magny | 7 of 16 | 43% | 6 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 |
Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov confidently, noting his 100% finish rate and well-rounded skills. He expects Rakhmonov to have success striking but ultimately lean on his wrestling for the win, similar to how Michael Chiesa took Magny down four times. He believes Magny's recent performances against Max Griffin and Jeff Neal show vulnerability.
Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by first-round knockout. He is very confident, citing Rakhmonov's 100% finish rate (8 KO, 7 sub), power in hands and kicks, and underrated submission game. He notes Magny's poor chin (dropped often, finished 6 times) and that he was dropped by Max Griffin. He sees Magny's only path as holding Rakhmonov against the cage, but doubts judges will score that. He expects Rakhmonov to hurt and finish Magny early.
Cody is sold on Rakhmonov as a finisher with excellent submission game and power. He notes Magni hasn't been finished in a while but thinks Rakhmonov's precision and finishing ability will get the job done. He recommends Rakhmonov inside the distance at -135.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Magni's recent performance against Max Griffin was poor and age may be catching up. He thinks Rakhmonov is precise and fights long, and he leans towards inside the distance by knockout.
The host picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting that Max Griffin dropped Neil Magny and almost won, and Rakhmonov is much better than Griffin. He believes Rakhmonov will finish Magny in the first round, possibly by submission (d'arce choke). He cites Magny's history of losing to top competition and his inability to outgrapple Rakhmonov.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 1 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 16 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
| Carlston Harris | 0 | 10 of 27 | 37% | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 1 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 16 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
| Carlston Harris | 0 | 10 of 27 | 37% | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 13 of 28 | 46% | 10 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 |
| Carlston Harris | 10 of 27 | 37% | 3 of 13 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 4 | 8 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 13 of 28 | 46% | 10 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 |
| Carlston Harris | 10 of 27 | 37% | 3 of 13 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 4 | 8 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
It’s a welterweight rumble on the docket now between two surging prospects each looking for their third win in as many tries when Rakhmonov (14-0, 2-0 UFC) takes on Harris (17-4, 2-0 UFC). This classic battle of Kazakhstan vs. Guyana will draw the attention of referee Mike Beltran, although the tensions are not high as they show respect with a touch of gloves. The center of the cage immediately belongs to Rakhmonov, who swats away a punch to the body as he slowly advances. Harris kicks the body and swipes out with a left as Rakhmonov comes towards him, and Harris whiffs on a big right hand as well. Harris has a left hand bounce off the cheek, only to walk into a one-two that makes him bend over. Harris fires back with a strike to the body, as he lunges in with a few right hands to the torso. Rakhmonov’s volume is low, as the Kazakh picks his shots from range. Rakhmonov catches a swinging Harris with a right hand, and Harris recklessly attacks and gets kicked hard to the body with a spinning kick. Rakhmonov races ahead, sensing he might have hurt “Mocambique,” and he lands a body shot before Harris grabs hold of him. They dance back and forth in pursuit of takedowns from each man, and Rakhmonov pushes him hard against the fence before lifting Harris in the air. Harris manages to keep his balance as Rakhmonov lifts him up, sets him down and picks him up again to elevate and drop. The Guyana native turns Rakhmonov to the fence, and he starts stomping on toes in an old-school manner. While Harris thwarts one trip attempt, the second succeeds, and Rakhmonov drops his foe right on his head. Harris keeps moving, scrambling well enough to get back to his feet without issue.
In the blink of an eye, Rakhmonov spins with a hook kick to the head, and the heel smashes into the side of Harris’ dome. Harris topples to the mat, and Rakhmonov leaps down to hunt for a finish. Harris throws his legs up to try to keep Rakhmonov off of him, but Rakhmonov tosses them aside and drops down hammers in the form of punches. “Nomad” blasts Harris a couple times with long standing-to-ground punches until Harris’ consciousness is stripped away, and Beltran is quick to notice this and halt the fight.
That’s 15 wins in 15 tries for Rakhmonov, with all 15 ending inside the distance. As he makes the sign to the crowd for dollar bills, he also signals to the UFC that he is a serious contender on the rise at 170 pounds.
The Official Result
Shavkat Rakhmonov def. Carlston Harris R1 4:10 via KO (Spinning Hook Kick and Punches)
Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov but warns the odds are too wide. He notes Rakhmonov is a special prospect with finishes everywhere, but Harris is a gamer with solid grappling and opportunistic submissions. Angelo gives the edge to Rakhmonov for his power and wrestling, but expects a tough fight. He suggests buying a round on the judges' scorecards.
Cody is torn but leans Rakhmonov. He loves Rakhmonov's skills and thinks he is a future star. He notes that Harris is a savvy veteran with good grappling and power, and that Rakhmonov had some clinch struggles against Cowboy Oliveira. However, he thinks Rakhmonov's overall game is superior and that he will get the job done.
Daniel Levi picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, praising his well-rounded game, durability, and finishing ability. He notes Rakhmonov has beaten solid competition and has a 77-inch reach. Levi believes Carlston Harris may gas in later rounds due to his bouncing movement, while Rakhmonov's cardio and pressure will take over. He respects Harris's awkward power and experience but sees Rakhmonov as a buzzsaw who will outwork him down the stretch.
Lock of the Night favors Rakhmonov, citing his cleaner striking and better gas tank. He notes that Rakhmonov gives up double underhooks easily, which is Harris's strength, but believes Rakhmonov's jiu-jitsu and cardio will allow him to take over later. He expects Rakhmonov to clip Harris and finish via ground and pound or submission. He likes the over 1.5 rounds and Rakhmonov inside the distance.
Paul is high on Rakhmonov, calling him a future title challenger. He notes Rakhmonov's smooth striking, good wrestling, and physical strength. He acknowledges that Harris is a live underdog with good grappling and power, but he thinks Rakhmonov's skills are special. He is backing Rakhmonov but admits he has been burned by having too much faith in prospects.
The MMA Guru picks Carlston Harris as an upset, calling it an 'evens matchup' despite wide odds. He notes Harris has beaten a Dagestani phenom before (Sajid Izakanev) and is more explosive. He predicts a second-round TKO, with Harris cracking Rakhmonov on the chin and finishing with ground strikes. He criticizes Rakhmonov's previous competition as weak.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 21 of 35 | 60% | 64 of 81 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:25 |
| Michel Prazeres | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 32 of 40 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 46 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Michel Prazeres | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 31 of 36 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 | |
| 2 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 18 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:02 |
| Michel Prazeres | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 21 of 35 | 60% | 15 of 26 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 11 |
| Michel Prazeres | 6 of 14 | 42% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 10 of 17 | 58% | 6 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 4 |
| Michel Prazeres | 5 of 10 | 50% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 11 of 18 | 61% | 9 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
| Michel Prazeres | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting his 100% finish rate, ability to win anywhere, and the massive reach advantage. He acknowledges Prazeres' desperation takedowns and competence on the ground but believes Rakhmonov can win anywhere. Angelo is confident but notes the over on rounds as a possible prop.
Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by third round KO, citing massive physical advantages (13 years younger, 12-inch reach advantage) and Prazeres's long layoff, age (39), and PED suspension. He notes Rakhmonov's 100% finish rate and well-rounded skills, while Prazeres has never been finished but may gas out. He expects Rakhmonov to pull away as the fight goes on.
Cody picks Rakhmonov, citing his reach advantage and youth. He notes Prazeres is 39, coming off a two-year USADA suspension, and looked bad in his last fight. He thinks Prazeres' best weapon (size and strength at 155) is neutralized at 170. Rakhmonov's length and striking should allow him to pick Prazeres apart if he can stuff takedowns. Cody expects Prazeres to press early but fade.
Jacob picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, echoing Angelo's point that Rakhmonov has more ways to win. He notes Prazeres has many decisions and is not a finisher. The only worry is if Rakhmonov chases a guillotine and ends up on his back. Jacob has Rakhmonov in his lineup at 9100.
Rakhmonov is a promising prospect with a strong grappling game, but he needs to prove himself against a veteran like Prazeres. Prazeres has never been finished and has a non-existent neck, making submissions difficult. Rakhmonov should control the fight and win a decision. However, the price is too high for a fighter with only one UFC win, so I'm not making him my lock.
Paul picks Rakhmonov, noting his finishing ability and reach advantage. He thinks Prazeres is too old and off a long layoff to be effective. He expects Rakhmonov to keep the fight at range and eventually find a finish. He is not worried about Prazeres' takedowns because Rakhmonov is a combat sambo specialist.
The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov by first-round guillotine choke, predicting he will hurt Prazeres on the feet, prompting a panic takedown that Rakhmonov will capitalize on. He acknowledges Prazeres' underrated resume but notes his age (39) and long layoff (over two years) as major concerns. He trusts Rakhmonov's undefeated record and ability to overcome adversity.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 32 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 32 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 9 of 18 | 50% | 3 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 13 of 25 | 52% | 6 of 14 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 19 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 9 of 18 | 50% | 3 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 13 of 25 | 52% | 6 of 14 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 19 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting he bet him at +135. He believes Rakhmonov is the higher output fighter and that Oliveira's takedown defense is suspect. He predicts a third-round knockout, as Oliveira has been finished before. He also notes Oliveira is on short notice.
Daniel Levi picks Alex Oliveira, disagreeing with the line and stating Oliveira should be a favorite. He believes Rakhmonov is overrated due to being mistaken for Russian, and that Oliveira's body of work and physicality will be too much. He warns Oliveira not to pull a stunt and expects him to win by decision, possibly by pinning Rakhmonov against the fence and kneeing the body.
The host likes Shavkat Rakhmonov as a dog, citing his undefeated record, finishing ability, and strong ground game. He notes that Alex Oliveira is a wild card with cardio issues and inconsistent performances. He sees value at +155 but is not fully committed.
The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Rakhmonov is undefeated (12-0), has run through M1 and Battle of the Nomads, and has beaten experienced opponents. He believes Oliveira is overrated as a 2-to-1 favorite, has been KO'd many times, and is taking the fight on short notice at an older age.
Alex Oliveira - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 1 | 50 of 76 | 65% | 51 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 21 of 44 | 47% | 21 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 31 of 50 | 62% | 31 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 19 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | Kevin Holland | 1 | 19 of 26 | 73% | 20 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 50 of 76 | 65% | 24 of 48 | 3 of 5 | 23 of 23 | 34 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 16 of 23 |
| Alex Oliveira | 21 of 44 | 47% | 6 of 28 | 7 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 20 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 31 of 50 | 62% | 7 of 24 | 3 of 5 | 21 of 21 | 30 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Alex Oliveira | 19 of 39 | 48% | 6 of 25 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 7 | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Kevin Holland | 19 of 26 | 73% | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 22 |
| Alex Oliveira | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Many expect that this welterweight scrap on the docket now is a sure-fire “Fight of the Night” candidate, as both Holland (21-7, 1 NC; 8-4, 1 NC UFC) and Oliveira (22-11-1, 2 NC; 11-9, 1 NC UFC) love to put on a show. Both men had no issue making the 171-pound limit, and they appear to be fired up and excited to get after it. Referee Chris Tognoni wrangles them long enough to get them to stand behind their respective black lines, and when the fight begins, they rush together to touch gloves. Holland leads the dance with a low kick that connects and a high kick that whizzes past the head of “Cowboy.” Holland connects with another leg kick, drawing a reaction from Oliveira and a response with one of his own. Holland scores a third low kick to the calf, and he just misses when Oliveira wings a big right hook at him. Holland continues to chip away from the outside, and Oliveira catches him on the way in with a right hand counter that knocks “Trailblazer” off his feet. Holland is able to jump back up to his feet and block a flying knee that soars towards him, and he gets back to poking with calf kicks. Holland lunges forward with a right hand, and Oliveira is right there to return fire with a swiping right hook. The punches from Oliveira make Holland lean off-balance. Holland gets cracked with a right hand as he advances, and when he falls to the ground, he laces his legs up for a leglock. Oliveira is able to step out of danger, and he lifts Holland up and slams him down to the mat. Holland is able to scramble away, and he blasts “Cowboy” in the face with a crisp right hand that puts the Brazilian on rubber legs. Not one to shy away from a brawl, Oliveira swings right back and gets Holland’s respect with a few power shots that make Holland’s rear leg lock up for a second. Both men gather themselves and get back to kickboxing range, where Holland is comfortable working with leg kicks and away from the swinging punches that whiz at him. Oliveira chops down Holland’s lead leg with a kick that is much heavier than the ones Holland are throwing, and Holland does a twirl and comes back out swinging. Holland kicks low, and he has it checked, but it seems to have affected Oliveira as well. Oliveira tries to grab the kick, but when it lands, he throws back at Holland. Holland spins from the kick, and he gets snagged against from the Brazilian. In a ridiculous scramble, Oliveira takes his foe’s back and cinches up a rear-naked choke. Instead of being concerned at all, “Trailblazer” motions to thumbs-up signs from each hand to the camera, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Round 2
The hands get touched to start off the second round, and Oliveira appears to come out limping. Despite this, Oliveira charges ahead with a low kick, and he gets clipped with a small right hand counter. Holland smells blood, and he races out drop hammers on his wounded opponent. The knees of “Cowboy” give way beneath him and he crumbles to the mat, and Holland can see the finish line and delivers a brutal salvo of punches to end the fight. As Oliveira flails and protects himself from harm, Holland switches to elbows and smashes them in his adversary’s face one after the other. Unleashing the thunder, Holland gives it everything he has to record the finish, and Tognoni jumps in to pull Holland off of a wrecked “Cowboy.” There is no ill will between the two after the furious five-plus minutes of ferocity, and they hug it out to celebrate a hard-fought battle.
The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Alex Oliveira R2 0:38 via TKO (Elbows)
Angelo picks Kevin Holland, noting his improved takedown defense and dedication to wrestling. He thinks Oliveira's leg kicks are dangerous but Holland's hands will be the difference. He expects Oliveira to stay on his feet, allowing Holland to settle into a rhythm and let his hands fly. He calls it potential fight of the night.
Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win, likely by submission. He notes that Oliveira is on a three-fight skid and appears to be slowing down at 34, while Holland is younger and motivated. Brady believes Holland's BJJ black belt will be a threat if Oliveira attempts takedowns, as Oliveira has been submitted six times. He also thinks Holland's striking and reach advantage will be key, though he questions Holland's fight IQ. Brady is comfortable picking Holland but not laying -300 on him.
Cody likes Holland's striking advantage and reach, and believes his improved wrestling from training with Johny Hendricks will help him stay on the feet. He notes Oliveira is not a chain wrestler and has poor cardio, while Holland has good jiu-jitsu off his back. Cody has Holland in a parlay with Covington and also likes the submission prop at +800.
Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland to win by submission. He notes that Holland has a massive size and reach advantage at 170, and that Oliveira's best days are behind him. He expects Oliveira to shoot a sloppy takedown and get caught in a choke. He also mentions that Holland has been working on his grappling and has submission wins. He parlayed Holland with Paddy Pimblett for two units.
Holland's striking is pristine at range, and the drop to 170 should help his takedown defense against smaller opponents. Oliveira has cardio issues and a tendency to give up. Holland will likely stay safe, avoid Oliveira's leg kicks and wrestling, and find a knockout in the later rounds. Oliveira's wild style could cause problems early, but Holland's conditioning and skill should prevail.
Paul dismisses the trap-line narrative, arguing Holland's wrestling has improved significantly since the Brunson and Vettori fights. He highlights Holland's training with Johny Hendricks and his performance against Kyle Daukaus, where he defended takedowns well. Paul notes Oliveira is not a high-volume wrestler and has a three-fight losing streak, while Holland is big and durable. He also mentions a standing guillotine as a potential finish.
The MMA Guru calls Kevin Holland a lock over Alex Oliveira, citing Oliveira's decreased durability since a grenade attack and his tendency to slow down in fights. He believes Holland's youth, durability, and scrappiness will overwhelm Oliveira, predicting a second-round TKO. He notes that Oliveira has been chinned easily recently and that Holland's weight cut to welterweight should be manageable.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Price | 0 | 65 of 112 | 58% | 83 of 131 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 64 of 116 | 55% | 108 of 167 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niko Price | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 16 of 22 | 72% | 34 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:48 | |
| 2 | Niko Price | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 29 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 21 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Niko Price | 0 | 39 of 60 | 65% | 39 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 34 of 68 | 50% | 53 of 91 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Price | 65 of 112 | 58% | 31 of 72 | 17 of 23 | 17 of 17 | 56 of 99 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 |
| Alex Oliveira | 64 of 116 | 55% | 37 of 83 | 7 of 11 | 20 of 22 | 45 of 93 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niko Price | 7 of 17 | 41% | 3 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 16 of 22 | 72% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 7 | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 8 | |
| 2 | Niko Price | 19 of 35 | 54% | 9 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 11 |
| Alex Oliveira | 14 of 26 | 53% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 8 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 3 | Niko Price | 39 of 60 | 65% | 19 of 34 | 12 of 18 | 8 of 8 | 39 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 34 of 68 | 50% | 22 of 53 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 7 | 26 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 9 |
Angelo picks Alex Oliveira, assuming veteran savvy will prevail over Niko Price's wildness. He notes that Oliveira is more technical, has more experience, and has more ways to win, but he often gets sucked into brawls. Angelo expects Oliveira to use leg kicks to slow Price down and fight a smart fight. He likes Oliveira in DraftKings at $7,800 and recommends using slates for monkey knife fight to bet on Oliveira's more. He acknowledges that Price could win with a crazy knockout.
Big Brady picks Niko Price to win inside the distance, citing Oliveira's poor recent form (2-5 in last 7, looking like he doesn't want to be there). Price is the hungrier fighter, comes forward with volume, and doesn't slow down. Oliveira has been finished multiple times (5 submissions, 1 KO) and has slowed down in recent fights. Brady expects Price to finish Oliveira early, possibly by submission given Oliveira's submission losses, and thinks this could be Oliveira's last fight if he loses.
Cody picks Niko Price, noting that Oliveira has declined significantly and is a one-round fighter with poor cardio. Price is competitive in his losses and has shown he can push the pace and wear opponents down. He expects Price to stuff takedowns, keep the fight standing, and take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Price has a baby on the way, which might motivate him.
Daniel Levi picks Niko Price but expresses concern about laying -190 on him, as he prefers Price as an underdog. He notes Price's improved volume and resilience, while Oliveira is a seasoned vet with clinch knees and power but has shown questionable durability and a tendency to tap quickly. Levi expects a three-round war and thinks Price will edge it out due to digging deeper. He acknowledges a finish is possible but leans decision.
I think Price has improved his volume and grappling, while Oliveira has declined. Price is the more durable and active fighter. Oliveira is a wild card but has looked poor lately. I like Price by KO at +150 and the under 2.5 rounds. Price should overwhelm Oliveira.
Paul also picks Price, surprised the line is only -165. He notes that Oliveira looks over the hill, with poor weight cuts and lethargic performances. Price has been competitive against top competition and should have a cardio advantage. He expects Price to win by decision or late stoppage.
The MMA Guru picks Niko Price, noting Alex Oliveira's tendency to fade in the third round and his recent chin issues. Price has cardio and toughness advantages, and he has KO power. He predicts Price will win by TKO in the third round after a competitive first two rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Brown | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Oliveira | 1 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 23 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Brown | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Oliveira | 1 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 23 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Brown | 7 of 12 | 58% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 16 of 32 | 50% | 10 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Brown | 7 of 12 | 58% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 16 of 32 | 50% | 10 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 11 |
Big Brady picks Oliveira to win a close decision as an underdog. He notes Oliveira's inconsistency is a concern, but if the best version shows up, he can mix in takedowns and top control. He thinks the fight should be closer to a pick'em and likes the value on Oliveira. He also mentions Brown's chin is questionable.
Cody is high on Brown, noting his consistent improvement and physical advantages. He points out Oliveira's lack of motivation and poor recent performances. He expects Brown to use his length and striking to control the fight, and thinks Oliveira will fade if he doesn't get an early finish. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds and suggests live betting on Brown.
Daniel picks Randy Brown, believing his length and improving game will be too much for Alex Oliveira. He notes Oliveira's inconsistency and that Brown will pull away in the later rounds, possibly getting a finish. He expects the first round to be close.
I lean Brown here. He has better cardio and technique, and Oliveira is inconsistent. Brown should use his reach and jab to outpoint Oliveira. I like Brown by decision at +225, and the over 1.5 at -225 is also solid. However, Oliveira could surprise with a wild performance, so confidence is not high.
Paul picks Brown, citing his improvement, length, and reach advantage. He notes Oliveira's distractions (nine kids, eight baby mamas) and declining interest. He expects Brown to use his jab and distance to outbox Oliveira, and thinks Oliveira's best days are behind him. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds and suggests live betting on Brown after round one.
The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown by decision. He notes that Oliveira is injury-prone and often breaks toes or ribs during fights, while Brown is more durable. He predicts Oliveira wins the first round but Brown comes back in the second and third, winning 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 32 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 32 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 9 of 18 | 50% | 3 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 13 of 25 | 52% | 6 of 14 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 19 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 9 of 18 | 50% | 3 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 13 of 25 | 52% | 6 of 14 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 19 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting he bet him at +135. He believes Rakhmonov is the higher output fighter and that Oliveira's takedown defense is suspect. He predicts a third-round knockout, as Oliveira has been finished before. He also notes Oliveira is on short notice.
Daniel Levi picks Alex Oliveira, disagreeing with the line and stating Oliveira should be a favorite. He believes Rakhmonov is overrated due to being mistaken for Russian, and that Oliveira's body of work and physicality will be too much. He warns Oliveira not to pull a stunt and expects him to win by decision, possibly by pinning Rakhmonov against the fence and kneeing the body.
The host likes Shavkat Rakhmonov as a dog, citing his undefeated record, finishing ability, and strong ground game. He notes that Alex Oliveira is a wild card with cardio issues and inconsistent performances. He sees value at +155 but is not fully committed.
The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Rakhmonov is undefeated (12-0), has run through M1 and Battle of the Nomads, and has beaten experienced opponents. He believes Oliveira is overrated as a 2-to-1 favorite, has been KO'd many times, and is taking the fight on short notice at an older age.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Oliveira | 1 | 45 of 93 | 48% | 48 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Peter Sobotta | 0 | 29 of 67 | 43% | 30 of 68 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Peter Sobotta | 0 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alex Oliveira | 1 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Peter Sobotta | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Alex Oliveira | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 22 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Peter Sobotta | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 12 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Oliveira | 45 of 93 | 48% | 19 of 51 | 16 of 29 | 10 of 13 | 37 of 85 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Peter Sobotta | 29 of 67 | 43% | 13 of 46 | 7 of 11 | 9 of 10 | 29 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Oliveira | 9 of 24 | 37% | 1 of 11 | 7 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Peter Sobotta | 7 of 21 | 33% | 2 of 13 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Oliveira | 17 of 33 | 51% | 9 of 17 | 5 of 11 | 3 of 5 | 11 of 27 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Peter Sobotta | 10 of 17 | 58% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alex Oliveira | 19 of 36 | 52% | 9 of 23 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 17 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Peter Sobotta | 12 of 29 | 41% | 7 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Sobotta as an underdog because he believes Sobotta has a huge ground advantage with his BJJ. He thinks the fight will hit the ground and Sobotta can win there, either by submission or decision. He is concerned about Oliveira's power but thinks Sobotta's striking has improved and the gap is not large.
Daniel picks Sobotta for the upset, citing his jiu-jitsu and improved boxing. He believes Sobotta can take Oliveira's back and submit him if he avoids early damage. He acknowledges Oliveira's physicality and danger but thinks Sobotta's path to victory via submission is viable. He is worried about Oliveira bullying Sobotta early.
Sobotta is the more technical fighter with superior grappling and submission skills. Oliveira is wild and has a poor gas tank, often fading in the third round. Sobotta can take Oliveira down and submit him late, or outpoint him on the feet. The line should be closer, and Sobotta offers value at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Alex Oliveira, noting his activity and momentum from a win over Max Griffin. He points out that Sobotta hasn't fought since March 2018 and lost to Leon Edwards. He also mentions Oliveira's reach advantage and jiu-jitsu, and believes Oliveira will get the job done.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 40 of 77 | 51% | 61 of 98 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:31 |
| Max Griffin | 0 | 23 of 50 | 46% | 62 of 96 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 5:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 14 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Max Griffin | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 23 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:38 | |
| 2 | Alex Oliveira | 0 | 23 of 41 | 56% | 24 of 42 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Max Griffin | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 19 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Alex Oliveira | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 23 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
| Max Griffin | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 20 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Oliveira | 40 of 77 | 51% | 21 of 56 | 11 of 13 | 8 of 8 | 35 of 67 | 3 of 8 | 2 of 2 |
| Max Griffin | 23 of 50 | 46% | 17 of 40 | 4 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 47 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Oliveira | 9 of 24 | 37% | 6 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Griffin | 7 of 16 | 43% | 6 of 13 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Oliveira | 23 of 41 | 56% | 9 of 27 | 6 of 6 | 8 of 8 | 23 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Griffin | 12 of 28 | 42% | 9 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alex Oliveira | 8 of 12 | 66% | 6 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
| Max Griffin | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Opening up the main card is a battle between two welterweights in desperate need of a win as “Cowboy” Oliveira (19-8-1, 2 NC; 9-6, 1 NC UFC) takes on Griffin (15-7, 3-5 UFC) . Drawing the assignment is referee Mark Smith. There is no glove touch, as Griffin comes out firing with a heavy one-two that just misses the mark. Griffin is racing after him, and gets clipped on the way in but does not pull back. “Pain” swings heavily, but does not connect flush, as Oliveira dances away and spins about almost to celebrate that he did not get hit. Oliveira crashes forward and dings him with a right hand before clinching up, and Griffin fights himself free. The two try to paw out their left hands for range, and Oliveira throws a right hand so hard he nearly falls over. The two both wing their punches, and Oliveira sticks out a jab. Griffin takes a one-two, and comes right back with a similar combination but does not score it. The two swing and trade at the same time, and Griffin tags him and cause Oliveira to go flailing with an uppercut. Griffin hits a takedown, and his corner screams at him to back off and do damage. In full guard, Griffin stays heavy while throwing some short punches, and Smith chides Griffin on punching to the back of the head. Griffin passes to half guard, and Oliveira tries to pull himself up the fence so Smith shouts at him to let it go. Griffin stays tight and looks to tie up Oliveira’s arm with his leg, but the Brazilian gets his arm free before interlocking his toes in the fence. Smith again warns him to let go of the cage, and has to slap Oliveira’s toes out. All the while, Griffin slowly works with some elbows and looks at an arm-triangle choke, but with Oliveira against the cage wall, he cannot get leverage to set anything up. As Oliveira springs to his feet, Griffin takes his back, but “Cowboy” rips himself free and the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Round 2
Like the first, Griffin practically sprints towards his opponent to land a long jab. Oliveira is ready for it, and catches him before landing two heavy leg kicks that make Griffin’s knee a little wobbly. Oliveira fires out a few more jabs, and Griffin is busted up from these shots with a cut above his right eye towards the bridge of his nose. Oliveira rushes in with a strike, and Griffin times a takedown but the Brazilian halts it. Instead, he turns the position around tries to pull for a single leg takedown, and we can see the blood pouring out of Griffin’s forehead. Smith calls in the doctor to check on the cut, which we can see came from a fierce uppercut. The doctor clears him to continue, and we are back to it. The two men start off with some jabs, and Oliveira pursues the low calf kick that is really irritating Griffin quickly. The two come together and swing, and Oliveira is timing the uppercut but cannot score it. The Brazilian lands an outside and then inside leg kick to the damaged leg, and takes a powerful right hand along the way. The two both come together with huge right hands, and both are clear of the mark with their home run shots. Griffin clinches up, but again Oliveira reverses him. In an attempt to break free, Oliveira pirouettes with a spinning elbow and Griffin is barely able to block it. Griffin shoots in low for a takedown, and Oliveira defends it with a guillotine before pushing him against the fence. After some tense but slow clinch work, “Cowboy” pursues a single but cannot get it, so Griffin breaks free and swings a heavy right hand that is short of the mark. Oliveira stings him with two more right hands, and when Griffin goes after a labored spinning back fist, Oliveira shoots low for one last takedown to seal the round. He does not land it, and the round is over with Griffin bleeding heavily.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Round 3
The last round kicks off with Griffin cleared to continue, as we see a separate cut under Griffin’s other eye. Oliveira scores a few long front kicks where he stabs with his toes, and then goes up top with a head kick that is blocked. Griffin tries to close the distance, and Oliveira spins him around to get a takedown. “Pain” stays strong, and spins him around while taking a few elbows to the side and back of his head. Griffin complains, and Smith warns the Brazilian as a cut has now opened on the top of Griffin’s head. This fight could quickly turn into a performance from the Edwin Dewees playbook, and Oliveira separates only to hit a takedown. “Cowboy” lands on top and pursues a choke, before taking full mount, and Griffin is in a bad way as the blood pours into his eye. Oliveira pulls for a straight armlock while on top, and bails on it to end in half guard. Griffin wears a crimson mask and is grimacing as he is not likely able to see, and Oliveira capitalizes with a few short but effective punches on top. The Brazilian once more takes mount, and is starting to unload punches while Griffin tries to blink his eyes clear. Griffin scrambles and manages to reverse the position, and Oliveira falls to his back when he cannot come close to sinking in a guillotine choke. Griffin steps over to half guard and drops some elbows on his man, and Oliveira is holding on for dear life. With 80 seconds to go, Griffin is giving Oliveira his best “You don’t know where I’ve been, Lou” impression as he bleeds down on his opponent without getting many strikes off. Griffin grinds and starts to pour it on with some very short elbows and punches to try to steal the round. The judges have their hands full in this round, as Griffin ends the fight on top. What a bloody mess of a battle, but it sure was fun.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (29-28 Oliveira)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (29-28 Griffin)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (29-28 Oliveira)
The Official Result
Alex Oliveira def. Max Griffin via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Daniel picks Alex Oliveira to win by TKO in the first round, believing this is a step down in competition for Oliveira. He thinks Griffin is basic, slow, flat-footed, and gasses out, while Oliveira is a monster in the clinch and stand-up. He acknowledges Oliveira's susceptibility to submissions but doesn't think Griffin is capable of exploiting that.
Oliveira has better striking and power; he can hurt Griffin early and finish. However, if he blows his wad like against Mike Perry, Griffin's wrestling and cardio could take over. Griffin has shown ability to wrestle and grind. The host was considering betting Griffin but changed his mind after watching tape. He picks Oliveira by second-round TKO but is not confident enough to bet.
The MMA Guru initially leans toward Alex Oliveira but changes his pick to Max Griffin. He expects Oliveira to have early success, possibly dropping Griffin, but Griffin will come back and grind out a decision win by controlling the last two rounds on the ground. He notes both fighters are scrappers and this is a 50/50 fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 31 of 84 | 36% | 64 of 122 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 5:29 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 18 of 47 | 38% | 31 of 65 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 7 of 29 | 24% | 7 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:34 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:16 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 34 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:59 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 9 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 3 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 23 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 10 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 31 of 84 | 36% | 19 of 64 | 5 of 12 | 7 of 8 | 9 of 45 | 11 of 18 | 11 of 21 |
| Alex Oliveira | 18 of 47 | 38% | 14 of 40 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 7 of 29 | 24% | 0 of 18 | 3 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
| Alex Oliveira | 12 of 32 | 37% | 9 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 11 of 29 | 37% | 7 of 21 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 14 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 6 of 13 | 46% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nicolas Dalby | 13 of 26 | 50% | 12 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 20 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Going back to welterweight, the always-exciting Oliveira (19-7-1, 2 NC; 9-5, 1 NC UFC) tries to spoil the homecoming of Denmark's Dalby (17-3-1, 1 NC; 1-2-1 UFC). In his walk to the cage, Dalby is accompanied by the Denmark National Anthem, as performed by his fiancée Dzifa Adjo Akpalu. The referee taking charge of the cage is Rebin Saber. Oliveira opens up with a low leg kick, and then charges forward with a slew of punches that all fall short. The crowd is electric for their home country fighter, who scores a few slapping leg kicks while trying to find his range on the elusive Brazilian. Dalby leaps through the air with a knee, and as he falls shy of the target, Oliveira tries to counter on the way down, but he too misses. Dalby scores an inside leg kick, and Oliveira replies with one that Dalby checks. "Cowboy" whiffs with a spinning wheel kick, and Dalby responds with a spinning back kick that is nowhere near the mark. Dalby chases Oliveira down with a few punches, punctuated by a head kick that does not land flush. The Dane again blitzes forward, partially connecting with a right hand while avoiding the hard counter from the Brazilian. As Oliveira throws a big right over the top, Dalby shoots in for a takedown, but Oliveira stuffs it. Dalby presses Oliveira against the fence and tries to trip his opponent down, but Oliveira keeps his balance and stays upright, although his back is against the cage. Unsuccessful on another trip, it is actually Oliveira who gets the fight down, scooping the legs of Dalby while attempting to take the back. Returning to full guard, Oliveira drops down a loud right hand and little more, while Dalby tries to set up a triangle. Oliveira shucks off the attempt and lands in half guard, before Dalby reverses position and gets Oliveira down. The crowd is so loud cheering for Dalby that we cannot hear the horn sounding, but the round is over.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Round 2
Oliveira charges forward to begin the round, but does not successfully land on his first combination. Dalby plants a front kick to the chest of his adversary, and unfortunately Oliveira takes an eye poke and makes the referee stop the action. The fight resumes after a very short break, and the two men trade leg kicks before slamming hooks on each other's chins. In the flurry, Dalby floats up a head kick that blasts Oliveira on the side of the head, causing the Brazilian to clinch up. This does not prove to his advantage, as Dalby circles around and scoops the legs from underneath his opponent, with Dalby landing on top to the delight of the crowd. Quickly passing to half guard, Dalby drops down a few short elbows and punches to frustrating effect, so Oliveira tries to turn out of the position. Dalby lands a few punches that might be close to the back of his opponent's head, and then hammers down a couple elbows that are quite effective. Dalby pounds Oliveira with several right hands until the Brazilian has had enough, and Oliveira powers out of the position to stand up. Dalby leans heavy against the fence, and he has successfully bloodied the nose of "Cowboy." On the break, Oliveira tries to spin with a back elbow, but Dalby dodges it and comes on strong, landing punch after punch while Oliveira turtles up. With his opponent possibly playing possum, Dalby stays patient and continues to land on Oliveira. The Brazilian falls to the canvas, and in a scramble Oliveira briefly takes position, but he falls off the back and Dalby ends up on top. Oliveira lands an illegal upkick, causing Saber to pause the action and admonish Oliveira, and stands them back up. With seconds remaining, Oliveira cracks Dalby with a left hand, but Dalby walks it off and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Round 3
Oliveira's corner implores their fighter to "believe in yourself," causing Oliveira to smile as the final round begins. Dalby just misses with a head kick, causing the crowd to loudly gasp. Dalby shoots in for a double leg takedown and cannot land it, so Oliveira fishes for a guillotine choke. Unable to secure it, the Brazilian bails on it and spins Dalby against the fence. Oliveira tries to kick out the leg of his opponent, and lifts Dalby up and throws him to the cage floor. In side control, Oliveira throws a few knees to the body and grinds his elbow on the Dane's face. Dalby retains half guard, and is looking to sweep the Brazilian, but Oliveira stays strong and hammers down with several punches before the referee inexplicably stands them up. Not wanting to stay on the feet, Oliveira leaps into a double leg takedown, and scores it to drag Dalby back down. "Lokomotivo" rolls out and ends up on top, before taking full mount, and the crowd is deafening in support of their fighter. Dalby postures up to rain down punches and elbows, and then looks to set up an arm-triangle choke before giving it up to keep his strikes going. Dalby sits back up and smashes a few huge elbows to punctuate the fight, and the crowd is elated at Dalby's performance as the bout concludes. The two men embrace and raise their arms in the air after an exciting battle.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (30-27 Dalby)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (30-27 Dalby)
The Official Result
Nicolas Dalby def. Alex Oliveira via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Perry | 0 | 48 of 137 | 35% | 50 of 139 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 65 of 110 | 59% | 75 of 120 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Perry | 0 | 17 of 48 | 35% | 19 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 21 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | Mike Perry | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 21 of 36 | 58% | 30 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 | |
| 3 | Mike Perry | 0 | 15 of 55 | 27% | 15 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Perry | 48 of 137 | 35% | 30 of 110 | 7 of 16 | 11 of 11 | 42 of 125 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 1 |
| Alex Oliveira | 65 of 110 | 59% | 48 of 90 | 6 of 8 | 11 of 12 | 32 of 72 | 18 of 19 | 15 of 19 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Perry | 17 of 48 | 35% | 11 of 37 | 4 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 42 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 20 of 29 | 68% | 13 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 22 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mike Perry | 16 of 34 | 47% | 10 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 29 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Oliveira | 21 of 36 | 58% | 17 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 18 | |
| 3 | Mike Perry | 15 of 55 | 27% | 9 of 46 | 1 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Alex Oliveira | 24 of 45 | 53% | 18 of 37 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 34 | 9 of 10 | 1 of 1 |
Expert Picks (4)
Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting he bet him at +135. He believes Rakhmonov is the higher output fighter and that Oliveira's takedown defense is suspect. He predicts a third-round knockout, as Oliveira has been finished before. He also notes Oliveira is on short notice.
Daniel Levi picks Alex Oliveira, disagreeing with the line and stating Oliveira should be a favorite. He believes Rakhmonov is overrated due to being mistaken for Russian, and that Oliveira's body of work and physicality will be too much. He warns Oliveira not to pull a stunt and expects him to win by decision, possibly by pinning Rakhmonov against the fence and kneeing the body.
The host likes Shavkat Rakhmonov as a dog, citing his undefeated record, finishing ability, and strong ground game. He notes that Alex Oliveira is a wild card with cardio issues and inconsistent performances. He sees value at +155 but is not fully committed.
The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Rakhmonov is undefeated (12-0), has run through M1 and Battle of the Nomads, and has beaten experienced opponents. He believes Oliveira is overrated as a 2-to-1 favorite, has been KO'd many times, and is taking the fight on short notice at an older age.
Ian showed he is decent even in a loss