UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Oct 24, 2020 · Catchweight (140 lb) · Completed
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Age 35
Height 5' 7"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 33
Height 5' 6"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Casey Kenney
4.85 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
4.67 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
1.09 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
61.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Nathaniel Wood
5.64 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
4.25 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
1.35 TD Avg
48.0% TD Acc.
73.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Casey Kenney - Fight History
LOSS vs Song Yadong
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Aug 07, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Song Yadong 0 116 of 257 45% 121 of 263 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:20
Casey Kenney 0 78 of 190 41% 85 of 199 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Song Yadong 0 31 of 68 45% 31 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Casey Kenney 0 19 of 57 33% 19 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Song Yadong 0 34 of 78 43% 38 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Casey Kenney 0 28 of 60 46% 32 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
3 Song Yadong 0 51 of 111 45% 52 of 113 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Casey Kenney 0 31 of 73 42% 34 of 77 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Song Yadong 116 of 257 45% 66 of 197 34 of 44 16 of 16 110 of 249 6 of 8 0 of 0
Casey Kenney 78 of 190 41% 45 of 140 20 of 31 13 of 19 77 of 188 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Song Yadong 31 of 68 45% 18 of 54 5 of 6 8 of 8 28 of 65 3 of 3 0 of 0
Casey Kenney 19 of 57 33% 8 of 40 9 of 13 2 of 4 18 of 55 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Song Yadong 34 of 78 43% 19 of 60 9 of 12 6 of 6 34 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Casey Kenney 28 of 60 46% 17 of 45 4 of 7 7 of 8 28 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Song Yadong 51 of 111 45% 29 of 83 20 of 26 2 of 2 48 of 106 3 of 5 0 of 0
Casey Kenney 31 of 73 42% 20 of 55 7 of 11 4 of 7 31 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Casey Kenney vs. Yadong Song

Round 1
To kick off the main card, bantamweights throw down when Tachi Palace Fights staple Kenney (16-3-1, 5-2 UFC) meets China’s Song (16-5-1, 1 NC; 5-1-1 UFC). Even though Kenney (30) comes in seven years older than his opponent, he actually started his pro career a year after Song (23) did. Referee Dan Miragliotta was not aware of that age discrepancy, but he pays it no mind when the two touch gloves and prepare to fight. Song advances, and Kenney is there to kick him in the body. Song gives him one right back, and Kenney measures him with a few front kicks as “USA” chants already rain down to support Kenney. Song thumps Kenney with a couple solid right hands, and Kenney retreats and gathers himself. Kenney lands with a right hand behind the ear that makes Song stumble, but the Chinese fighter shakes it off and is ready to fire back. Kenney walks forward and slings a left hand, and Song replies in kind. Both men land heavy body kicks, and Kenney marches on to keep attacking. The American ducks back in time to avoid a quick combination, and he gets kicked in the leg. Kenney sticks his tongue out at him and comes out firing, and the two men exchange and connect on one another. A right hand counter from Kenney surprises Song, who measures another stiff leg kick as Kenney plods forward. Both men are marked up to the body after landing shots, and Kenney walks into another kick to the body. Song gets off a right hand that marks up the nose, and Kenney tries to pounce and even goes for a spinning wheel kick, but Song sees it coming and dances out of the way. Kenney goes up high with a kick, and Song dodges and weaves before slamming his shin into Kenney’s leg. A head kick from Song is blocked, and he bullies Song to the ground. The “Kung Fu Monkey” gets to his knees and finds himself in guillotine choke danger, but he stays patient and pops his head out. Song manages to wriggle himself back up to his feet, and Kenney chases him down and keeps throwing hands. Both men trade punches, with Song headhunting while Kenney goes to the body, and the two clap hands as the first round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kenney
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kenney
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kenney

Round 2
Kenney runs out of his corner and touches gloves, and he is quick to throw his foot up at Song’s face. Kenney takes a kick to the body as he advances, and he winds up on a huge right hand that Song narrowly dodges. Kenney chops at his foe’s leg, and Song loads up on a few punches to the body. Kenney counters, and the two separate, trading successive blows one after the other. Song kicks the body, Kenney kicks the leg, and Kenney walks through it to land a looping left hand. A fighter is warned for outstretched fingers, and Kenney goes right back to targeting the head and body of his opponent. Song is forced to fight off his back foot, and as he retreats, Kenney lands a few strikes high and low. Kenney fakes an ankle pick and absorbs a few shots to the body, and the American lands a leg kick followed by a right hand. Song has a trio of punches blocked, and when he comes in, Kenney eats one on the chin and fires right back. A loud, slapping kick from Song echoes through the arena, but Kenney pays it no mind as he careens off his leg. Song floats up a few body kicks as Kenney pushes the pace on him, and like a bantamweight Terminator, Kenney shows no reaction any time he is struck and keeps moving forward. Kenney looks to the take the fight down, and Song blocks it but eats a left hand over the top. When Kenney advances, Song is able to time strikes to his body and legs, but he lands with his hands as Song tries to skirt out of the way. Kenney comes up short on an uppercut as he walks his opponent down, while Song picks at him with kicks. Kenney returns fire after kicks land with low kicks, and he stings Song with a solid right hand. Song bites down on his mouthpiece and lets Kenney have it, scoring a left hand and one to the body. Kenney grits through it and tags his foe right back with a left, forcing Song to shoot in and try for a takedown. The American turns him around, where he clings to him against the fence until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kenney
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kenney
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 3
Scorecards will likely be understandably close going into this last round, with the volume of Song against the power and forward movement of Kenney. Din Thomas giggles as he says the Chinese fighter’s name, and the fight resumes practically where the last round ended, with quick exchanges from both fighters. Kenney ignores kicks to score a right hand that shakes Song up, and he scores a body kick to prompt Song to throw back at him. Song lands a few punches and a kick as Kenney advances, and he sits down on a right hand and it splits the guard. Kenney backs off as Song picks up volume, landing jabs and kicks as Kenney tries to give him one back every time. Song scores a right hand on the chin, and Kenney times a sharp body kick as Song ducks down. Kenney clips Song with a head kick where the knee may have bounced off Song’s head, and Song smiles keeps going strong. A one-two and a body kick from Song surprise his opponent, who whiffs as Song chains another punch combination to the body. Kenney lands a few punches at range, with a left hand that sends Song back a step. Song comes right back, and he scores a few strikes before he is forced to defend a takedown in the center of the cage. The Chinese fighter stands him up and holds his hands out to tell him to brawl with him, and Kenney steps in with a left hand as Song jabs at him. Kenney kicks and falls over while trying to recover from it, and Song is there before him scoring to the body. Kenney again shoots for a takedown, and Song sprawls and lands flush. Kenney is forced to shell up as Song strides forward, landing big punches as Kenney tries to wind up on bombs. Song meets every Kenney punch with two of his own, connecting to the body and head as Kenney wings shots. When Song puts together a combination, Kenney shoots in for a takedown and finally hits it – but he last less than 10 seconds to spare. In top position, Kenney drops down a few elbows, and time expires to conclude this close matchup. The scorecards could go either way.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song (29-28 Kenney)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Song (29-28 Kenney)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Song (29-28 Song)

The Official Result
Yadong Song def. Casey Kenney via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)
Casey Kenney

Angelo picks Kenney, citing his forward pressure, volume, leg kicks, and grappling. He believes Kenney will back Yadong up and mix in takedowns, similar to how Yadong lost to Kyler Phillips. He notes Yadong has better technical striking but struggles when backing up. He also mentions he has a moneyline bet on Kenney.

Moneyline bet on Casey Kenney; also mentions Yadong over 2.5 rounds as a prop
"Casey Kenney wins that fight... because of volume and grappling... he comes forward, lots and lots of volume, mixes in leg kicks, and grapples."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Casey Kenney

Big Brady sees this as a very close fight between Kenney's volume and Yadong's power. He thinks Kenney's ability to mix in takedowns will be the difference, as Yadong has 56% takedown defense. He predicts a close decision win for Kenney, but acknowledges the judges could go either way.

"I will take Casey Kenny though to mix it up and win a decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Casey Kenney

Cody picks Kenney, citing his superior volume and cardio. He notes that Song Yadong tends to fade in later rounds, while Kenney is a slow starter who pushes the pace. Cody expects Kenney to lose the first round but win the next two, making him a good live betting option.

Kenney by decision +150
"i think that your best bet is to take kini after the first round i think he's probably going to drop this first round to seong dong"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Song Yadong

Daniel Levi picks Song Yadong, believing he has more ways to win including a potential knockout early or late. He notes that Casey Kenney tends to fade in later rounds and has been taken down multiple times, while Song has power and improving cardio. He acknowledges the fight is close but leans Song because of his finishing ability and the fact that Kenney is undersized for bantamweight.

"I'm gonna pick him to win this fight man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Casey Kenney

Kenney has a grappling advantage and better cardio. He is one of the best scramblers in the UFC and should mix striking with takedowns. Yadong is a power puncher but has shown limited progression and will struggle with Kenney's footwork and level changes. Kenney should grind out a decision, possibly winning the later rounds decisively.

Kenney by decision
"I like kenny in the spot and uh yeah I'm probably going to take a shot on him here I like the odds."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Casey Kenney

Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a volume play. He thinks Kenney's pressure and output will be key, and that losing round one is possible if Kenney doesn't secure an early takedown. He doesn't add much new analysis.

"i think it's just like a volume play but uh yeah losing round one could is very much in the cards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Casey Kenney

The MMA Guru picks Casey Kenney over Song Yadong. He praises Kenney's cardio, output, and grappling advantage (black belt in judo). He believes Kenney's pace and body work will be too much for Yadong, and predicts a unanimous decision win. He notes Yadong's win over Marlon Vera was controversial.

"i'm gonna go with casey kenny by unanimous decision over song yudong"
LOSS vs Dominick Cruz
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Mar 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Cruz 0 89 of 202 44% 115 of 229 2 of 9 22% 0 0 2:07
Casey Kenney 0 74 of 193 38% 74 of 193 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Cruz 0 26 of 56 46% 26 of 56 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Casey Kenney 0 23 of 63 36% 23 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
2 Dominick Cruz 0 36 of 82 43% 36 of 82 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Casey Kenney 0 33 of 73 45% 33 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
3 Dominick Cruz 0 27 of 64 42% 53 of 91 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:07
Casey Kenney 0 18 of 57 31% 18 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Cruz 89 of 202 44% 51 of 151 24 of 35 14 of 16 85 of 197 4 of 4 0 of 1
Casey Kenney 74 of 193 38% 41 of 148 10 of 19 23 of 26 72 of 191 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Cruz 26 of 56 46% 10 of 29 7 of 16 9 of 11 26 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Casey Kenney 23 of 63 36% 9 of 46 6 of 7 8 of 10 22 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Dominick Cruz 36 of 82 43% 24 of 70 8 of 8 4 of 4 36 of 82 0 of 0 0 of 0
Casey Kenney 33 of 73 45% 21 of 55 1 of 6 11 of 12 33 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Dominick Cruz 27 of 64 42% 17 of 52 9 of 11 1 of 1 23 of 59 4 of 4 0 of 1
Casey Kenney 18 of 57 31% 11 of 47 3 of 6 4 of 4 17 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Big Brady picks Dominick Cruz as an underdog, citing Cruz's wrestling advantage and Kenney's 56% takedown defense. He notes Cruz has not won since 2016 but faced elite competition, while Kenney has been taken down frequently. He predicts a decision win but admits he doesn't feel great about it.

"i'm gonna side with the dog of dominick cruz here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Mar 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Casey Kenney

Daniel leans with Casey Kenney, citing Kenney's leg kicks from southpaw to slow Cruz's movement and his wrestling to keep the fight standing. He acknowledges Cruz's in-fight adjustments but believes Kenney's youth and style will edge a decision.

"i'm slightly leaning with casey kenny though man my gut just tells me that he... stylistically speaking his wrestling is good enough to keep it standing and he's got the kicks to slow down that movement of dominic cruz"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Cruz's footwork and experience could trouble Kenney, who may struggle to land his body kicks. The host notes Cruz's durability and wrestling background, but is not confident enough to bet. He predicts Cruz wins by decision.

"i got dominique cruzier to win this fight for your decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

The MMA Guru picks Dominick Cruz as an underdog. He argues Cruz had a full camp and hand-picked Kenney, and that people judge him unfairly based on the short-notice Cejudo fight. He believes Cruz's footwork, size, and experience will lead to a 30-27 unanimous decision, and that Cruz can even get takedowns.

"i'm going with dominick cruz man i am over casey kenny this is another underdog that i'm picking on the card"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Oct 24, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Casey Kenney 0 136 of 321 42% 138 of 325 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Nathaniel Wood 0 123 of 247 49% 125 of 249 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Casey Kenney 0 51 of 120 42% 51 of 120 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nathaniel Wood 0 54 of 96 56% 54 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Casey Kenney 0 48 of 113 42% 48 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nathaniel Wood 0 40 of 90 44% 40 of 90 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
3 Casey Kenney 0 37 of 88 42% 39 of 92 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Nathaniel Wood 0 29 of 61 47% 31 of 63 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Casey Kenney 136 of 321 42% 70 of 237 9 of 22 57 of 62 134 of 318 2 of 3 0 of 0
Nathaniel Wood 123 of 247 49% 74 of 189 25 of 32 24 of 26 118 of 241 4 of 5 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Casey Kenney 51 of 120 42% 22 of 83 6 of 12 23 of 25 51 of 120 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nathaniel Wood 54 of 96 56% 29 of 68 13 of 15 12 of 13 53 of 95 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Casey Kenney 48 of 113 42% 26 of 86 0 of 4 22 of 23 48 of 113 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nathaniel Wood 40 of 90 44% 26 of 71 5 of 9 9 of 10 39 of 89 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Casey Kenney 37 of 88 42% 22 of 68 3 of 6 12 of 14 35 of 85 2 of 3 0 of 0
Nathaniel Wood 29 of 61 47% 19 of 50 7 of 8 3 of 3 26 of 57 2 of 3 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Casey Kenney

Big Brady leans towards Casey Kenney, acknowledging the fight is close and the line (-200) may be too wide. He highlights Kenney's wrestling advantage and ability to get the fight to the mat, where he has a good submission game. However, he notes Wood's high striking volume and Kenney's recent quick turnaround, making him hesitant.

decision
"i'm going to lean kenny here and i'm going to pick kenny"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Oct 23, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Casey Kenney

Daniel Levi picks Casey Kenney, citing his harder hitting, wrestling background, and durability. He acknowledges Nathaniel Wood's point-fighting style and grappling but questions Wood's chin, noting all four of his losses are stoppages. Levi thinks Kenney will land harder shots and secure takedowns at the end of rounds to slightly outpoint Wood.

Dog or pass at the betting window; understands people taking a shot on Wood at +150
"i'm gonna lean with casey kenny i think he lands the harder shots i think he might secure a takedown or two at the end of rounds"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Casey Kenney

The host picks Casey Kenney, emphasizing his superior wrestling, cardio, and fight IQ. He believes Kenney will implement a grappling-heavy game plan to neutralize Wood's striking. He notes that Wood has defensive flaws and has been finished before.

Kenney by decision
"i truly think that we're going to see a casey kenny decision here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood to win by first-round TKO as an underdog. He argues that Wood is more technical than Kenney's previous opponent, has KO power, and dominated Andre Ewell. He believes Kenney is overrated as a 2-to-1 favorite and will be overaggressive, leaving himself open.

first round TKO
"i'm gonna go with nathaniel wood getting the upset on casey kenny"
WIN vs Alateng Heili
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana · Oct 04, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Casey Kenney 0 109 of 263 41% 109 of 263 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alateng Heili 0 46 of 171 26% 46 of 171 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Casey Kenney 0 40 of 94 42% 40 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alateng Heili 0 19 of 64 29% 19 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Casey Kenney 0 29 of 79 36% 29 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alateng Heili 0 14 of 52 26% 14 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Casey Kenney 0 40 of 90 44% 40 of 90 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alateng Heili 0 13 of 55 23% 13 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Casey Kenney 109 of 263 41% 57 of 192 41 of 58 11 of 13 109 of 261 0 of 2 0 of 0
Alateng Heili 46 of 171 26% 26 of 140 11 of 20 9 of 11 46 of 171 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Casey Kenney 40 of 94 42% 21 of 69 15 of 19 4 of 6 40 of 94 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alateng Heili 19 of 64 29% 9 of 53 5 of 6 5 of 5 19 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Casey Kenney 29 of 79 36% 11 of 58 15 of 18 3 of 3 29 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alateng Heili 14 of 52 26% 9 of 43 2 of 4 3 of 5 14 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Casey Kenney 40 of 90 44% 25 of 65 11 of 21 4 of 4 40 of 88 0 of 2 0 of 0
Alateng Heili 13 of 55 23% 8 of 44 4 of 10 1 of 1 13 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 30, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Casey Kenney

Big Brady picks Casey Kenney to win by decision. He highlights Kenney's superior striking volume and takedown defense, noting that Heili is low volume and gets outlanded. He thinks Kenney is better everywhere and that Heili's only chance is a knockout.

"give me casey kenny to win i'm gonna take it safe and say by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Casey Kenney

Daniel confidently picks Kenney, praising his fight IQ and level of competition. He expects Kenney to use kicks to avoid Heili's right hand, mix in takedowns, and dominate on top. He notes Heili's toughness and power but believes Kenney is on a different level and will out-tough him.

"i think casey is going to come out here throwing more kicks then he's going to mix in the takedowns and when he gets on top of hailey ala tank that's when i feel like he's going to really take …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Oct 1, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Casey Kenney

The host is extremely confident in Casey Kenney, citing his superior grappling, scrambles, and experience against high-level grapplers like Manny Bermudez and Brandon Royval. He believes Alateng Heili's wrestling credentials won't translate to MMA grappling and that Kenney will dominate on the ground. He placed a 5-unit bet at -281, calling it his lock of the night.

Parlay suggestion with Jordan Williams or Dusko Todorovic
"I've already pulled the trigger on casey kenny here... he is my locker than i play there's no doubt about it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Casey Kenney

The Guru picks Casey Kenney, citing his quality wins over Manny Bermudez, Ray Borg, and Louis Smolka, and noting that Alateng's close fight with Ryan Benoit was unimpressive. He acknowledges Kenney is a heavy favorite at 1-3 odds but still picks him, predicting a submission in the first or second round.

Odds: 1-3 (implied -300); prediction: submission round 1-2
"i'm definitely going to be picking casey kenny and to be honest he went to a decision with mourab yeah he got ragdolled but you know he was getting back up"
WIN vs Louis Smolka
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 3:03 · UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns · May 30, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Casey Kenney 0 18 of 43 41% 18 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Louis Smolka 0 32 of 52 61% 32 of 52 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Casey Kenney 0 18 of 43 41% 18 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Louis Smolka 0 32 of 52 61% 32 of 52 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Casey Kenney 18 of 43 41% 4 of 16 14 of 27 0 of 0 16 of 41 2 of 2 0 of 0
Louis Smolka 32 of 52 61% 15 of 34 5 of 6 12 of 12 31 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Casey Kenney 18 of 43 41% 4 of 16 14 of 27 0 of 0 16 of 41 2 of 2 0 of 0
Louis Smolka 32 of 52 61% 15 of 34 5 of 6 12 of 12 31 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 27, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Casey Kenney

Big Brady picks Casey Kenney to win by dominant decision. He believes Kenney is better everywhere and can take Smolka down at will. He thinks Kenney's BJJ is too good for Smolka to submit him, and that Kenney will control the fight on the ground or on the feet. He expects a 30-27 or 30-26 decision.

"I like Kenny a lot in this fight I think he is better pretty much everywhere"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 29, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Casey Kenney

Daniel slightly leans with Kenney but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation at -270. He respects Kenney's well-rounded game and toughness, but notes that Smolka is durable and can scramble. He expects a close fight and advises against betting the favorite at those odds.

dog or pass situation
"i do lean with casey kenny the issue is that when the line's three to one that that that's when you start to get worried"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 23, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Casey Kenney

The MMA Guru picks Casey Kenney to win by unanimous decision. He admits he wasn't impressed by Kenney's last performance but believes he is a very good fighter. He thinks Kenney will be the smaller man but will outwork Louis Smolka, who has had a long career. He predicts a decision win.

Kenney by decision
"Casey Kenny is a very good fighter I think he's gonna beat Luis smoker he's gonna be the smaller man in there however Luis smoke has had a long career now I feel like it's time for Casey Kenny to …"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–25, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz 2 · Feb 15, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 45 of 118 38% 47 of 120 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Casey Kenney 0 63 of 181 34% 114 of 241 12 of 24 50% 0 0 5:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 22 of 52 42% 24 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Casey Kenney 0 19 of 67 28% 43 of 92 4 of 6 66% 0 0 1:11
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 16 of 45 35% 16 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Casey Kenney 0 24 of 65 36% 33 of 75 4 of 11 36% 0 0 1:57
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 7 of 21 33% 7 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Casey Kenney 0 20 of 49 40% 38 of 74 4 of 7 57% 0 0 2:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 45 of 118 38% 22 of 87 10 of 17 13 of 14 42 of 112 3 of 6 0 of 0
Casey Kenney 63 of 181 34% 30 of 137 14 of 23 19 of 21 43 of 156 7 of 8 13 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 22 of 52 42% 8 of 30 5 of 12 9 of 10 19 of 47 3 of 5 0 of 0
Casey Kenney 19 of 67 28% 7 of 46 4 of 12 8 of 9 14 of 60 3 of 4 2 of 3
2 Merab Dvalishvili 16 of 45 35% 8 of 37 4 of 4 4 of 4 16 of 44 0 of 1 0 of 0
Casey Kenney 24 of 65 36% 9 of 48 9 of 10 6 of 7 17 of 57 3 of 3 4 of 5
3 Merab Dvalishvili 7 of 21 33% 6 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Casey Kenney 20 of 49 40% 14 of 43 1 of 1 5 of 5 12 of 39 1 of 1 7 of 9
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Daniel Levi picks Merab Dvalishvili to edge out a close decision, but is not very confident. He notes Dvalishvili's relentless pressure and takedowns, but also his tendency to gas and become predictable. He acknowledges Kenney's underrated skills and ability to win fights he's not supposed to, making this a tough call.

close decision, fight of the night potential, value on Kenney at plus money
"I think my Rob's probably gonna edge out a decision but it's not a very confident pick"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · Aug 17, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Casey Kenney 0 37 of 59 62% 59 of 83 3 of 4 75% 0 1 6:10
Manny Bermudez 0 43 of 69 62% 56 of 85 2 of 2 100% 1 1 5:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Casey Kenney 0 11 of 14 78% 14 of 17 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:32
Manny Bermudez 0 18 of 28 64% 21 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:49
2 Casey Kenney 0 6 of 12 50% 7 of 13 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:22
Manny Bermudez 0 14 of 22 63% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 1 1 2:55
3 Casey Kenney 0 20 of 33 60% 38 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:16
Manny Bermudez 0 11 of 19 57% 15 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Casey Kenney 37 of 59 62% 29 of 47 8 of 12 0 of 0 22 of 43 2 of 2 13 of 14
Manny Bermudez 43 of 69 62% 21 of 42 10 of 14 12 of 13 26 of 49 6 of 7 11 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Casey Kenney 11 of 14 78% 8 of 11 3 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 10 1 of 1 3 of 3
Manny Bermudez 18 of 28 64% 9 of 17 3 of 4 6 of 7 14 of 24 3 of 3 1 of 1
2 Casey Kenney 6 of 12 50% 5 of 8 1 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Manny Bermudez 14 of 22 63% 7 of 14 5 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 9 1 of 1 10 of 12
3 Casey Kenney 20 of 33 60% 16 of 28 4 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 21 1 of 1 10 of 11
Manny Bermudez 11 of 19 57% 5 of 11 2 of 4 4 of 4 9 of 16 2 of 3 0 of 0
WIN vs Ray Borg
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Gaethje · Mar 30, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Casey Kenney 0 17 of 35 48% 22 of 40 7 of 10 70% 0 1 6:30
Ray Borg 0 32 of 52 61% 46 of 68 2 of 3 66% 0 3 6:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Casey Kenney 0 2 of 4 50% 4 of 6 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:36
Ray Borg 0 10 of 15 66% 15 of 22 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:38
2 Casey Kenney 0 7 of 10 70% 8 of 11 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:36
Ray Borg 0 13 of 16 81% 17 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 2 1:54
3 Casey Kenney 0 8 of 21 38% 10 of 23 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:18
Ray Borg 0 9 of 21 42% 14 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Casey Kenney 17 of 35 48% 8 of 23 8 of 11 1 of 1 2 of 14 13 of 19 2 of 2
Ray Borg 32 of 52 61% 9 of 27 19 of 20 4 of 5 9 of 23 19 of 25 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Casey Kenney 2 of 4 50% 0 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 1
Ray Borg 10 of 15 66% 3 of 6 5 of 6 2 of 3 3 of 8 4 of 4 3 of 3
2 Casey Kenney 7 of 10 70% 3 of 5 4 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 3 5 of 6 1 of 1
Ray Borg 13 of 16 81% 3 of 6 10 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 3 11 of 12 1 of 1
3 Casey Kenney 8 of 21 38% 5 of 17 2 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 9 7 of 12 0 of 0
Ray Borg 9 of 21 42% 3 of 15 4 of 4 2 of 2 5 of 12 4 of 9 0 of 0
Nathaniel Wood - Fight History
WIN vs Losene Keita
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 0 67 of 178 37% 67 of 178 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Losene Keita 0 52 of 119 43% 52 of 119 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 0 17 of 56 30% 17 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Losene Keita 0 11 of 26 42% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 19 of 56 33% 19 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Losene Keita 0 23 of 42 54% 23 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 31 of 66 46% 31 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Losene Keita 0 18 of 51 35% 18 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 67 of 178 37% 32 of 128 2 of 3 33 of 47 67 of 177 0 of 1 0 of 0
Losene Keita 52 of 119 43% 36 of 101 13 of 15 3 of 3 52 of 119 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 17 of 56 30% 7 of 42 2 of 3 8 of 11 17 of 55 0 of 1 0 of 0
Losene Keita 11 of 26 42% 8 of 22 3 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nathaniel Wood 19 of 56 33% 9 of 42 0 of 0 10 of 14 19 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Losene Keita 23 of 42 54% 14 of 32 7 of 8 2 of 2 23 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Nathaniel Wood 31 of 66 46% 16 of 44 0 of 0 15 of 22 31 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Losene Keita 18 of 51 35% 14 of 47 3 of 3 1 of 1 18 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Losene Keita

Angelo picks Losene Keita because of his devastating striking and fast sprawls, but he is not betting on him. He notes Keita missed weight in his debut and is untested, while Nathaniel Wood is a proven tough veteran who gets dropped. He respects Wood's toughness but thinks Keita's power could put him out cold. He avoids betting due to the -170 price and weight miss concerns.

no bets; -170 too high given weight miss and untested competition
"I'm gonna pick him. I'm not betting on him. No parlays, nothing. Zero bets whatsoever on Line here. Minus 170 when he missed weight in what was supposed to be his UFC debut against a guy like Nathaniel Wood, a …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood as a live dog, but he is hesitant because Wood has been dropped in many fights and Keita hits very hard. He notes that Wood has incredible volume, can mix in takedowns, and has good recovery, but his chin is a concern. He thinks if Wood doesn't get knocked out, he will win a decision as the hometown favorite. He calls this the best fight on the card and expects it to be a war.

Nathaniel Wood by decision
"Give me Nathaniel Wood here to win this fight. I'll take him to win the fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody leans toward Wood, noting Keita's layoff and weight cut, but is not fully confident. He sees value in Wood as an underdog.

"I I I feel like I'm leaning towards Wood to be honest. Uh, but is there any great reason? I don't know."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Connor picks Nathaniel Wood, emphasizing Wood's technical edge everywhere and his ability to handle athletic opponents like Delgado and Shariay. He notes that Keita is a one-dimensional pressure fighter who doesn't cut off the cage or use a jab effectively. Connor believes Wood can weather Keita's power and figure him out, but warns that Wood's tendency to initiate grappling could be risky if Keita overpowers him.

Odds comment: Wood opened at -110, now +197; Keita opened -110, now -232. Connor thinks Wood should be a slight favorite.
"I mean, I think wood wins, especially recently over Delgado and Shariay. Like he's very capable of handling very athletic opponents who do not either have consistent in Shariay's case or nuanced ways of going after him in Delgado's case."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Losene Keita

Daniel picks Keita (Radzhabov) to knock out Wood. He notes Wood's chin issues and that Keita is a dynamic finisher with patience. He thinks Wood will have early success but Keita will land a devastating shot. He expects a round two KO.

Fight KO +150, wins by KO in round two +625
"I think Kade is going to knock him out. ... Round two KO in my eyes."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Losene Keita

Daniel Vreeland picks Losene Keita to win his UFC debut. He notes Keita's power and athleticism, and Wood's tendency to get hit early. He thinks Keita can knock Wood out or win a damage-based decision, but acknowledges the risk of debut jitters.

"I'm going to pick Los Sanada to come out here and win his UFC debut."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Wood is ruthlessly consistent, has home advantage, and will push a high pace. Keita is more technical but untested at this level. Wood's toughness and cardio should overwhelm Keita late. The odds are wide; all value is on Wood.

Prefers fight spread +3.5 over moneyline for insurance; fight likely goes over 2.5 rounds.
"All the value lies with Wood here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

James picks Nathaniel Wood, but admits bias as he considers Wood a friend. He thinks Wood is well-rounded and tough, but Keita has power and physicality. He expects a competitive fight and thinks it could end inside the distance.

under 2.5 rounds (speculative)
"I'm going to root for Nathaniel Wood as always and I'm hoping he gets it done."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Losene Keita

The host is confident in Losene Keita winning by knockout. He highlights Keita's explosive power, speed, and takedown defense, while Wood is seen as having no significant grappling edge. He expects Keita to close the distance and land big shots, putting Wood away. He feels good about Keita at -220.

"I'm going to take Ka and Ka by knockout. And I feel pretty damn good about him, especially at minus 220."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul fades the hyped prospect Keita, citing Wood's experience, durability, and ability to keep fights close. He expects Wood to win a close decision in London.

"I'm actually going to fade the highly touted European prospect for the guy a little I'm a little more uh comfortable with than Nathaniel Wood."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Losene Keita

The MMA Guru picks Losene Keita to TKO Nathaniel Wood in the first round. He notes Wood often gets hurt and has been in close fights, while Keita is explosive, powerful, and huge for featherweight. He believes Keita's follow-up shots are nastier than Wood's previous opponents, and he will finish Wood when he hurts him.

TKO finish in round one
"I think he's going to TKO and finish Nathaniel Wood in round one."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Zane picks Nathaniel Wood, citing Wood's technical superiority in striking, wrestling, and grappling. He notes that Keita is a raw athlete with power but lacks tactical nuance, often just walking opponents down and throwing right hands. Zane compares Keita to Vinicius Oliveira and believes Wood can stick and move to victory, though he acknowledges Wood's tendency to make fights hard on himself.

Odds comment: Wood opened at -110, now +197; Keita opened -110, now -232. Zane thinks the fight should be closer to dead even and that Wood should be a slight favorite.
"I have to take wood here, but it is what makes every fight hard on himself. That's that is just what he does. So I cannot pick wood and say he's absolutely going to make this easy."
WIN vs Jose Delgado
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 1 99 of 176 56% 101 of 178 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:58
Jose Delgado 1 134 of 232 57% 141 of 239 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 1 24 of 59 40% 25 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jose Delgado 1 68 of 111 61% 75 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 36 of 61 59% 37 of 62 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:38
Jose Delgado 0 29 of 55 52% 29 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 39 of 56 69% 39 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:17
Jose Delgado 0 37 of 66 56% 37 of 66 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 99 of 176 56% 63 of 124 7 of 8 29 of 44 88 of 159 7 of 10 4 of 7
Jose Delgado 134 of 232 57% 92 of 178 35 of 46 7 of 8 100 of 190 14 of 16 20 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 24 of 59 40% 15 of 43 2 of 2 7 of 14 19 of 50 2 of 4 3 of 5
Jose Delgado 68 of 111 61% 48 of 88 16 of 19 4 of 4 43 of 80 5 of 5 20 of 26
2 Nathaniel Wood 36 of 61 59% 25 of 44 1 of 2 10 of 15 33 of 57 3 of 4 0 of 0
Jose Delgado 29 of 55 52% 20 of 43 7 of 10 2 of 2 24 of 49 5 of 6 0 of 0
3 Nathaniel Wood 39 of 56 69% 23 of 37 4 of 4 12 of 15 36 of 52 2 of 2 1 of 2
Jose Delgado 37 of 66 56% 24 of 47 12 of 17 1 of 2 33 of 61 4 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood as an underdog, emphasizing his superior experience and resume with wins over fighters like John Castañeda, Charles Jourdain, and Andre Fili. He believes Wood is faster, busier, and more tested than Jose Delgado, who has only been a finisher and hasn't faced adversity. Angelo placed a half-unit bet on Wood at plus 133 odds.

I actually threw a little itty-bitty teeny-weeny half a unit on him at these plus 133 odds
"Nathaniel's faster. I think he's busier. He's certainly more experienced. Jose has only been a hammer. I'm interested to see what happens if he's the nail for a few minutes here. Nathaniel's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Big Brady picks Jose Delgado but with low confidence, calling it a 'minute winner vs moment winner' fight. He acknowledges Nathaniel Wood is more experienced and talented, with good striking, volume, and cardio. However, Wood is a small bantamweight moving up, has been hurt often, and Delgado has a 100% finish rate with significant power. Brady believes Delgado's power will eventually catch Wood's chin, predicting a second-round KO.

Delgado by second round KO
"I'm going to go with Delgado. Not a ton of confidence in him. I do like Delgado quite a bit as a prospect, but this is a massive test for him. Give me Jose Delgado to win. And I'll say …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Cody picks Jose Delgado, citing his height and reach advantage and powerful knees up the middle. He notes that Wood is short for 145 and has been knocked out before, and Delgado's striking is dynamic. Cody believes Delgado will win by KO, possibly early.

Delgado by KO
"I'm on I'm I'm going to end up on the uh on the Delgado side as well in this fight. What Delgado KO? Delgado KO, yeah."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jose Delgado

Connor picks Delgado based on a gut feeling, noting his fluid striking, calmness under pressure, and natural finishing instinct. He acknowledges that Wood is more proven but believes Delgado's flow and confidence could overwhelm Wood, especially if Wood loses focus as he did against Sharaa. Connor also notes that Wood tends to get crushed in moments and that Delgado is dangerous.

Delgado opened at +130, now -140; Wood opened -150, now +120.
"Honestly, my gut is kind of telling me to pick Delgado, it's a wild shot. He has not proven nearly as much as Nathaniel Wood has. But you feel very dangerous."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Daniel Vreeland is high on Delgado's size, power, and finishing ability, and believes he is ready for this step up. He notes that Wood is smaller (former bantamweight), gets hurt often, and has mentioned retirement, which could affect his focus. He thinks Delgado's training at MMA Lab will help him handle Wood's leg kicks, and that Delgado's pressure and size will overwhelm Wood.

"I think that José Delgado's ready for this test. It's gonna be a tough fight, but I think at some point in this fight, Delgato can hurt Wood."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The host likes Wood in this spot, expecting him to thwart Delgado's power striking, be competitive on the feet, and use grappling opportunities to grind out a decision win.

decision
"I do like me some wood in this spot as I think that he's going to do a solid job of thwarting the power striking of Delgato..."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Paul also picks Delgado, noting his training at MMA Lab and his dangerous knees. He believes Wood's chin may be compromised after moving up in weight, and Delgado's power will be too much. Paul suggests Delgado KO prop at plus 250 as a good bet.

Delgado by KO (+250)
"I think Wood may be in for a canvas nap."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

The MMA Guru picks Jose Delgado by TKO in round two or late round one. He believes Delgado is a large featherweight with finishing ability, while Nathaniel Wood is small for the division and has been hurt in fights before. He notes that Wood often lets fights get too competitive and has been nearly finished by Charles Rosa and Andre Fili. He expects Delgado's knee up the middle and wild shots to catch Wood, and that Wood's clinch escapes won't work against a bigger opponent.

TKO round two or late round one
"I'm going to go with Jose Delgado to get a finish here over Nathaniel Wood, I reckon."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jose Delgado

Zane agrees with Connor, citing Delgado's smooth, flowing striking and ability to adapt. He notes that Wood has a tendency to lose focus in striking exchanges and that Delgado's pressure could cause Wood to revert to wrestling, which may not be enough. Zane also points out that Delgado has a natural feel for striking and has shown he can handle pressure.

"I'm going to go with you on this and I hate to do it because like wood really should be getting a lot more out of his career than this."
CANCEL vs Rolando Delgado
UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Lucrative James picks Nathaniel Wood, but admits bias as Wood is a friend. He believes Wood is the better technical striker and can win on the feet, while Delgado has power but questionable cardio and has been dropped before. He notes Delgado's only loss came via wrestling, but Wood is not a wrestler. He expects a competitive fight but leans Wood due to superior striking.

"Of course, I'm rooting for Nathan. Of course, I'm picking Nathan here. He's the better striker."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 1 72 of 119 60% 89 of 136 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:00
Morgan Charrière 0 42 of 94 44% 69 of 125 1 of 3 33% 0 1 3:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 1 15 of 26 57% 31 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:51
Morgan Charrière 0 5 of 10 50% 30 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:40
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 35 of 51 68% 36 of 52 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:09
Morgan Charrière 0 18 of 38 47% 20 of 40 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:44
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 22 of 42 52% 22 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Morgan Charrière 0 19 of 46 41% 19 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 72 of 119 60% 42 of 80 5 of 8 25 of 31 62 of 104 3 of 4 7 of 11
Morgan Charrière 42 of 94 44% 21 of 64 13 of 18 8 of 12 37 of 87 3 of 3 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 15 of 26 57% 9 of 17 1 of 1 5 of 8 8 of 15 0 of 0 7 of 11
Morgan Charrière 5 of 10 50% 2 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 5 3 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 4
2 Nathaniel Wood 35 of 51 68% 21 of 35 4 of 5 10 of 11 32 of 48 3 of 3 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 18 of 38 47% 9 of 28 8 of 8 1 of 2 16 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Nathaniel Wood 22 of 42 52% 12 of 28 0 of 2 10 of 12 22 of 41 0 of 1 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 19 of 46 41% 10 of 31 5 of 10 4 of 5 18 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Angelo picks Morgan Charrière, comparing him to a French version of Chito Vera. He believes Charrière's pressure, pace, and wrestling will be the difference. He notes that if Charrière fights Wood the same way Muhammad Naimov did (minus the fouls), he'll get a win. He acknowledges Wood is good but favors Charrière's style.

"I like Morgan sherier to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Brady calls this a very close fight with split decision written all over it. He favors Wood's volume and thinks the judges might give hometown cooking to Wood. He notes Charrière is the split decision king (losing them) and predicts Wood wins a close decision.

Wood by decision
"I'm going to take wood here just to do a little bit more and I'll say Morgan shé loses his like 50th decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Connor picks Charrière, agreeing with Zane. He highlights Wood's fatal flaw of trying to do everything, which will allow Charrière to react and scramble. Charrière's aggression and durability, as shown in the Mario Bautista fight, make him a tough matchup. Connor believes Charrière's physicality and willingness to scrap will edge out Wood's technical but flawed game.

Charrière opened at -193, currently -144; Wood opened at +147, currently +128.
"I got a picture. Yeah, love it. Love it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The host believes featherweight is Wood's ideal weight class, and he will showcase his output advantage and slick grappling to keep Charrière on the defensive. Wood's activity level will lead to an optical win on the scorecards.

"I think we'll see him showcase his output advantage as well as some slick grappling that could keep Cher on the defensive for the most part."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

The Guru picks Morgan Charrière, believing that Nathaniel Wood's tendency to get badly hurt in fights will eventually catch up to him. He notes that Charrière has nasty finishing instincts and will capitalize if he hurts Wood. He expects Wood to be winning on the feet initially, but then disaster strikes and Charrière gets a TKO in the second or third round.

TKO round 2 or 3
"I'm going to go with Morgan sharer getting this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Zane picks Charrière, citing his athleticism and ability to handle Wood's multifaceted game. He believes Wood's tendency to overcomplicate and insist on wrestling will play into Charrière's strengths, as Charrière is difficult to outwrestle and comfortable in the pocket. He notes Wood's losses to athletic fighters and expects Charrière's physicality to be decisive.

Charrière opened at -193, currently -144; Wood opened at +147, currently +128. Zane says the line feels just right.
"It just feels like sharia is probably too athletic for wood ... I'm kind of just making a physicality pick for sharia."
WIN vs Daniel Pineda
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 1 66 of 93 70% 81 of 110 0 of 0 --- 1 1 3:42
Daniel Pineda 0 32 of 69 46% 80 of 125 1 of 6 16% 0 2 5:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 0 15 of 21 71% 24 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:09
Daniel Pineda 0 13 of 18 72% 30 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 1 1:47
2 Nathaniel Wood 1 42 of 61 68% 47 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:22
Daniel Pineda 0 12 of 36 33% 24 of 49 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:04
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 9 of 11 81% 10 of 12 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:11
Daniel Pineda 0 7 of 15 46% 26 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 1 3:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 66 of 93 70% 35 of 56 12 of 14 19 of 23 55 of 79 0 of 0 11 of 14
Daniel Pineda 32 of 69 46% 21 of 53 3 of 5 8 of 11 19 of 53 2 of 2 11 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 15 of 21 71% 8 of 14 3 of 3 4 of 4 11 of 16 0 of 0 4 of 5
Daniel Pineda 13 of 18 72% 10 of 14 0 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 8 0 of 0 9 of 10
2 Nathaniel Wood 42 of 61 68% 22 of 37 8 of 9 12 of 15 35 of 52 0 of 0 7 of 9
Daniel Pineda 12 of 36 33% 5 of 26 2 of 3 5 of 7 11 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Nathaniel Wood 9 of 11 81% 5 of 5 1 of 2 3 of 4 9 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Pineda 7 of 15 46% 6 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 1 4 of 10 1 of 1 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood as the biggest favorite on the card, citing Wood's superior striking, grappling, and durability. He notes that Daniel Pineda is dangerous early but fades quickly, and Wood only needs to survive the first few minutes. Angelo believes Wood is better everywhere and is safe to parlay.

"Nathaniel is the pick and probably safe to Parlay"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody picks Nathaniel Wood, citing his technical striking, cardio, and improving wrestling. He notes that Daniel Pineda is a dangerous first-round fighter but fades quickly, and that Wood can survive the early onslaught and take over in later rounds. Cody believes Wood can win by decision or late finish, and suggests waiting for a better live price after the first round.

"I think Nathaniel would maybe either buy either it's going to be a decision or I do again see him maybe finishing off finishing off pan late in the third round could be by TKO could be by submission."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Daniel thinks Nathaniel Wood is better everywhere but has a questionable chin. He notes Daniel Pineda is a kill-or-be-killed fighter with all wins by finish, but 0-6 in decisions. He expects Wood to weather an early storm and win a decision if he survives.

"I think Nathaniel wood probably wins the decision here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul agrees with Cody, expecting Wood to win. He notes that Pineda's best chance is early, and he might sprinkle on Pineda by submission in round one at long odds. However, he believes Wood's volume and cardio will be too much as the fight goes on.

Daniel Pineda by submission in round 1 (small sprinkle)
"I'll probably throw a small little sprink because I'm a I'm a sick degenerate Cody I'll probably have like a small little sprinkle on P round one at plus 1,000."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood, calling Daniel Pineda 'trash' and a former PED user. He believes Wood is levels above Pineda in skill, especially on the feet, and will win the low kick battle, which is key to Pineda's game. Wood's recent grappling win over Alex Caceres shows his well-roundedness. The Guru sympathizes with Wood's bad luck in past fights and expects him to win decisively.

"I'm going to go with Nathaniel wood I think Daniel Pan's trash former ped CH well always a ped CH but um got caught on Peds when he came to the UFC"
LOSS vs Muhammad Naimov
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muhammad Naimov 0 50 of 72 69% 70 of 94 2 of 7 28% 0 0 2:44
Nathaniel Wood 0 48 of 81 59% 100 of 140 4 of 9 44% 0 1 6:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 10 of 17 58% 17 of 26 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:45
Nathaniel Wood 0 18 of 28 64% 49 of 64 1 of 3 33% 0 1 2:37
2 Muhammad Naimov 0 1 of 1 100% 6 of 6 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:32
Nathaniel Wood 0 11 of 13 84% 30 of 34 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:59
3 Muhammad Naimov 0 39 of 54 72% 47 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:27
Nathaniel Wood 0 19 of 40 47% 21 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muhammad Naimov 50 of 72 69% 37 of 57 6 of 7 7 of 8 36 of 56 5 of 6 9 of 10
Nathaniel Wood 48 of 81 59% 31 of 60 10 of 13 7 of 8 24 of 48 11 of 14 13 of 19
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muhammad Naimov 10 of 17 58% 4 of 10 1 of 2 5 of 5 8 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0
Nathaniel Wood 18 of 28 64% 13 of 21 3 of 4 2 of 3 6 of 11 5 of 5 7 of 12
2 Muhammad Naimov 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0
Nathaniel Wood 11 of 13 84% 4 of 6 4 of 4 3 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 5 6 of 7
3 Muhammad Naimov 39 of 54 72% 32 of 46 5 of 5 2 of 3 28 of 41 2 of 3 9 of 10
Nathaniel Wood 19 of 40 47% 14 of 33 3 of 5 2 of 2 17 of 36 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood but doesn't love the odds at 3-to-1. He trusts Wood's durability after the war with Andre Fili and his takedown defense. He worries about Naimov's power and the fact that Naimov is untested at 145 with a full camp. Wood is not in any of his parlays, indicating lower confidence.

"Wood's going to be the pick here I I think these less risky spots on this card to bet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood to win by decision. He highlights Wood's high volume (over 6 significant strikes per minute), solid wrestling, and ability to dictate where the fight takes place. The main concern is Wood's chin, as he has been dropped and finished before, giving Naimov a puncher's chance. However, Brady believes Wood will win a clear 30-27 decision if his durability holds.

decision
"I got to go Nathaniel wood here and I got to take Nathaniel wood to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody picks Wood, emphasizing his speed, wrestling, and volume. He notes that Naimov is a one-dimensional power puncher who lost to Colin Anglin. Cody believes Wood's skill set will overwhelm Naimov, but he acknowledges the power threat.

"Nathaniel wood is the pick but he could be the pie fucker"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Daniel picks Nathaniel Wood to win, acknowledging that Wood is a much better fighter overall but is in a high-risk, low-reward spot against a dangerous opponent. He notes Wood's chin issues and the letdown spot after fighting higher-ranked opponents. He believes Wood should win clearly but warns that Naimov is KO or bust and could catch Wood. He still picks Wood but is cautious.

Wood minus 330, Naimov plus 270; mentions Wood's chin and the letdown spot
"I still think he should clearly win I think he's way better than this guy I think he owns this guy um but yeah n mob's dangerous."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Wood is the more complete fighter with relevant experience. At featherweight, he doesn't have to cut extra weight and can use his speed and footwork to stay away from Naimov's power. Expects Wood to put on a masterclass from striking to takedowns to Jiu-Jitsu, winning by decision.

"I'm fully expecting would to go out there and put on a master class against naov from his striking to his takedowns to even his Jiu-Jitsu"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul picks Wood but is hesitant due to Wood's durability issues. He notes that Wood is faster and more skilled, but Naimov has power and could knock him out. Paul expects Wood to win if he avoids big shots, but he is worried about the chin.

Naimov by KO (+600) as a sprinkle
"Wood's the pick just don't love it for the kind of money line you're getting"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood by late rounds TKO, specifically in the third round. He argues that Wood's technical striking, high guard, and tucked chin will make it difficult for Naimov to land a knockout. He also notes that Wood's shorter stature will help him stuff takedowns and counter Naimov's big shots. He dismisses Naimov's upset win over Jamie Mullarkey because Mullarkey's striking defense was poor.

Wood wins in round 3 by TKO
"I think Nathaniel Wood's going to win this fight I'm going to go by late rounds TKO after n of his swinging and missing quite a bit and landing on the guard I think Nathaniel wood gets this one done …"
WIN vs Andre Fili
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 1 84 of 148 56% 108 of 174 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:47
Andre Fili 1 58 of 151 38% 76 of 179 0 of 2 0% 0 1 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 1 37 of 69 53% 37 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:23
Andre Fili 0 17 of 49 34% 20 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 10 of 15 66% 34 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Andre Fili 1 17 of 34 50% 32 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:55
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 37 of 64 57% 37 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Andre Fili 0 24 of 68 35% 24 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 84 of 148 56% 38 of 90 10 of 18 36 of 40 71 of 123 0 of 0 13 of 25
Andre Fili 58 of 151 38% 45 of 134 7 of 10 6 of 7 53 of 144 3 of 5 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 37 of 69 53% 21 of 48 4 of 7 12 of 14 24 of 44 0 of 0 13 of 25
Andre Fili 17 of 49 34% 15 of 45 0 of 2 2 of 2 17 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nathaniel Wood 10 of 15 66% 4 of 9 1 of 1 5 of 5 10 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andre Fili 17 of 34 50% 14 of 31 2 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 27 3 of 5 2 of 2
3 Nathaniel Wood 37 of 64 57% 13 of 33 5 of 10 19 of 21 37 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andre Fili 24 of 68 35% 16 of 58 5 of 6 3 of 4 24 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood, believing a healthy Wood beats an inconsistent Andre Fili. He notes Wood's injury was just a cut, not a knee issue, so he should be fine. He does not bet the moneyline but may explore props because Fili is better than the odds suggest.

may explore props
"I think a full-blown healthy Nathaniel would probably beats an inconsistent Andre feeling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood by decision, citing hometown advantage and volume striking. He notes Wood is undersized with a reach disadvantage but throws high volume (6.34 sig strikes/min). He thinks Wood can mix in takedowns and that close decisions will favor the London fighter. He admits the line should be closer.

by decision
"give me wood to win this fight I think it's gonna be close potentially even a split decision of this one but I think wood wins it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody picks Wood based on volume advantage, noting Wood lands over 97 significant strikes in recent fights while Fili's career high is 98. He thinks Wood's wrestling and pressure will overwhelm Fili, and that Wood's chin issues were due to weight cuts at 135. He expects a 30-27 decision.

Wood by decision at +120, Wood over 76.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"Nathaniel would and like want to say he's one of them more confident picks on the card because I believe he is"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Daniel made this his first bet of the card, taking Nathaniel Wood at -180 to win 2 units. He highlights Wood's pace and volume advantage, noting Fili has never landed 100 significant strikes in a UFC fight while Wood has exceeded 130 multiple times. He believes Wood's calf kicks and pressure will neutralize Fili's reach, and that Wood's improved chin at featherweight (no longer cutting to bantamweight) is a key factor. He acknowledges the threat of Fili's head kick but trusts Wood's game plan to close distance and outwork him.

Daniel bet Wood at -180 to win 2 units. He mentions Wood's volume advantage and Fili's lack of output.
"I took Nathaniel wood at -180 and I played it to win two units"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

James picks Nathaniel Wood to win, calling this a potential coming-out party for him. He notes that Wood has deserved a big win and that Fili doesn't always rise to the occasion. He mentions that Wood is fighting in his hometown of London and that he thinks Wood will rise to the occasion. James acknowledges his bias as he is friendly with Wood but still believes in his skills.

"I do think this is could be his coming out party you know he's deserved one for a while"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The host picks Nathaniel Wood, citing his improved cardio at featherweight, patient striking, and ground game. He believes Wood's overall game will be too much for Fili, who struggles against higher competition. He predicts a decision win for Wood.

"give me Nathaniel wood to win this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul agrees with Cody on volume, noting Fili lacks knockout power and has durability issues. He thinks Wood's wrestling advantage and pace will be key. He also likes Wood by decision and the over on significant strikes.

Wood by decision at +120, Wood over 76.5 significant strikes
"I think it comes down to volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood, calling it a no-brainer. He praises Wood's leg kicks, noting he may hold the record for most leg kicks landed in a fight. He criticizes Andre Fili's recent decline and skinny legs, and believes Wood's high guard will defend against head kicks. The Guru expects Wood to bust up Fili's lead leg and win by decision or late TKO.

"Gotta go Nathaniel wood here in my opinion no-brainer"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Sep 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 0 86 of 203 42% 115 of 232 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:24
Charles Jourdain 0 97 of 202 48% 128 of 234 5 of 8 62% 0 0 4:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 0 23 of 55 41% 30 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Charles Jourdain 0 26 of 51 50% 36 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:50
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 35 of 78 44% 43 of 86 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Charles Jourdain 0 35 of 80 43% 54 of 100 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:35
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 28 of 70 40% 42 of 84 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Charles Jourdain 0 36 of 71 50% 38 of 73 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 86 of 203 42% 56 of 165 29 of 36 1 of 2 55 of 166 30 of 36 1 of 1
Charles Jourdain 97 of 202 48% 61 of 157 14 of 21 22 of 24 78 of 174 16 of 22 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 23 of 55 41% 17 of 47 5 of 7 1 of 1 16 of 48 7 of 7 0 of 0
Charles Jourdain 26 of 51 50% 16 of 39 3 of 4 7 of 8 23 of 47 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Nathaniel Wood 35 of 78 44% 23 of 64 12 of 14 0 of 0 25 of 65 9 of 12 1 of 1
Charles Jourdain 35 of 80 43% 22 of 62 5 of 9 8 of 9 30 of 70 4 of 7 1 of 3
3 Nathaniel Wood 28 of 70 40% 16 of 54 12 of 15 0 of 1 14 of 53 14 of 17 0 of 0
Charles Jourdain 36 of 71 50% 23 of 56 6 of 8 7 of 7 25 of 57 9 of 11 2 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Charles Jourdain vs. Nathaniel Wood
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jourdain (-135), Wood (+115)

Round 1
The main card should start off with a bang, if Jourdain (13-5-1, 4-4-1 UFC) and Wood (18-5, 5-2 UFC) have anything to say about it. The Canadian has leaned into his French-speaking side this week, acting as an adopted French fighter, and the crowd is clearly on his side for this featherweight contest. Lacing up his running shoes is referee Rich Mitchell, who may be moving fast and furious to keep up with these two action-heavy 145ers. They touch gloves before the mayhem begins, and the crowd goes wild at the sight of all-time great Georges St. Pierre in the crowd. Jourdain pays his countryman no mind as he has a job to do, and he starts off with a flurry of kicks. The Canadian goes high and low with kicks, and he trips Wood up. Wood throws haymakers back, surprising Jourdain briefly, and the two wind up in a clinch. Wood trips Jourdain out and plants him on the mat, where he climbs into the guard to take the striker out of his game briefly. Jourdain defends off his back with a guillotine choke, but the leverage is not there, so Wood does not register it. The Brit hangs on from above, and Jourdain considers grabbing the guillotine again until Wood threatens with his shoulder in the early stages of a Von Preux choke. Jourdain bucks and sits up, but Wood is persistent in keeping him pinned to the canvas. Mitchell tells them to work, so Jourdain answers by walking up the fence. Jourdain gets away with a fence grab while Wood is hanging on to him in the clinch, and he pushes the fighter off of him so that he can strike. Jourdain tags Wood with a few punches and a high kick, and he snaps the head back much to the delight of the French-speaking audience. Wood gathers himself and pitches out a front kick, and his foot skims off the cup and causes a brief pause in the action. Wood apologizes for it, and they get back to it after a few seconds. Wood times a front kick that comes at him with a huge right hand, and Jourdain is hurt badly but keeping a stiff upper lip. Jourdain’s balance nearly gives way beneath him, but with Wood not pushing the pace, Jourdain is able to get his wits about him again. This similar exchange occurs twice more, with Jourdain pushing out a front kick only to get clubbed with a right hand over the top. Jourdain toughs it out and gets kicked hard on his calf, forcing him to spin all the way around. Wood chips away at the lead leg again, and Jourdain greets him with three crisp uppercuts. Jourdain strings three punches together, but Wood unleashes one power right hand that stings Jourdain again. “Air” backs off, and he suddenly leaps in the air with a flying knee that Wood sees coming. Wood pushes it off and strings together a combination, and the two high-five when the bell sounds, putting a close to this exciting round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Wood
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Wood
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Wood

Round 2
The fists get bumped to start off the second frame, and Wood stalks his foe down early. Jourdain does not let Wood get the upper hand, crashing forward with a several-punch combination that is largely blocked, and a head kick that is also guarded. Wood works the body with a few punches and a front kick, and Jourdain comes out firing right back at him. A body kick from Jourdain allows Wood to trip his other leg out, and Wood jumps down to take top position. Jourdain kicks off before long, working his way back upright. Jourdain steps through a leg kick to score a few uppercuts and a knee up the middle, and Wood lets him have it with a huge left hook. Jourdain shrugs it off and the body shots that come to follow, and he answers with two ripping punches to the midsection. They trade punches in close boxing range, fighting in a phone booth when they close in. Jourdain strides in with several uppercuts, and Wood does the same before tripping Jourdain’s legs out and putting him down once more. Wood moves into the guard, and Jourdain tries to hip escape but gets held there. Mitchell is already imploring Wood to work after just a few seconds in top position, as Jourdain is fighting tooth and nail to get the right angle to explode back up. Mitchell warns the Brit again to improve his position, as Wood is just punching the body with short strikes, and they get stood up. Wood strings three punches together when standing again, and Jourdain takes a leg lock as he tries to reply. When they close in, four uppercuts come from Jourdain, and a furious exchange ensues with “Air” getting the better of it. They remain up close, and Jourdain blasts the body with a stern knee. Wood responds with a few straight punches, but Jourdain is the more active of the two as he keeps working the body and head with uppercuts. Wood stuns him with a left hand, and Jourdain takes it flush and throws back. Jourdain turns the tables and hits a trip on Wood, and they get back up quickly. Wood pays him back with his own trip, and Jourdain springs back up and nails Wood with an elbow. From a foot away, Jourdain manages to spin with a subsequent elbow, and England's Wood eats it like a platter of fish and chips. The round ends after this striking flurry.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Wood
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Wood
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Wood

Round 3
The fighters embrace after 10 minutes of action to open up the last round, and they pick up right where they left off. Both men strike with punches and body kicks one after the other, and when one scores a low kick, the other replies in kind. Jourdain pushes away a body kick and walks into a leg kick, but he manages to get off a few short strikes up the middle. Wood dips back when a bigger uppercut comes at his face, and he gets tripped out and put down. “The Prospect” manages to turn him around and drop Jourdain to his back, and he lowers himself into the guard to slow things down. Jourdain wants none of this, and he muscles himself up to the fence. Wood follows him so that he can rail him with two short but fierce elbows, and Jourdain pushes off and keeps a tight guard to come in and throw hands. Wood counters and then hits a trip to dump the Canadian to the mat, and Jourdain kicks him off without concern and stands up. Wood is right there every step of the way when Jourdain tries to engage in their close-range battle, and he beats Jourdain to the punch when they get up tight. Jourdain uses uppercuts effectively to the body and chin, and one of Wood’s counters knocks Jourdain back. Jourdain tries to stride in and spin with an elbow, but Wood keeps his guard up in time. Wood fishes for a trip and cannot land it, as Jourdain marks his body up with several knees. Jourdain fires off another spinning elbow up close, and it collides behind the ear of the Brit. Wood puts a kick to the body that changes Jourdain’s expression, and he scores several more body shots that slow the Canadian down. Wood’s workrate is higher, and Jourdain begins to start getting desperate and throwing winging punches. “Air” mixes in flying knees, and he sits down on two hooks that knock Wood back. With 15 seconds to spare, Jourdain empties the gas tank with a flying kick, and Wood shuts this down with a clinch, and he manages to put Jourdain down to the mat to ride out the exciting battle.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Wood (30-27 Wood)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Wood (30-27 Wood)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Wood (30-27 Wood)

The Official Result
Nathaniel Wood def. Charles Jourdain via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

Angelo picks Charles Jourdain because of his incredible pressure and cardio, noting that nothing can prepare you for that. He acknowledges Nathaniel Wood has the striking and grappling to win, but Jourdain's pace and volume are overwhelming. He has a moneyline bet on Jourdain and notes the line has not moved.

Moneyline bet placed; line has not moved
"how could i not pick charles jordan over the last year he seems to have settled in and gotten very comfortable with his style"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

Big Brady picks Charles Jourdain to win by knockout, likely in the third round. He notes that Jourdain has significant power advantage and has finished all but one of his wins, while Wood has been finished in four of five losses and is moving up from 135. He expects Jourdain's durability and third-round surge to be too much for Wood.

third round knockout
"i'll say it's in the third round but um i do think he does finish uh nathaniel would here so give me uh charles jordan to win charles jordan to win by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

Cody picks Charles Jourdain, citing his high volume, cardio, and ability to wear opponents down in the third round. He notes that Jourdain has improved his grappling and that Nathaniel Wood, a former bantamweight, may struggle with the size and durability of Jourdain. Cody acknowledges Wood's speed and wrestling but believes Jourdain's pressure and finishing ability will be decisive.

"I think charles jordan gets his hand raised on saturday afternoon."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

Daniel Levi picks Charles Jourdain, impressed by his striking and volume, especially his performance against Shane Burgos. He notes that Wood is moving up in weight and may have durability issues, and that Jourdain gets better as the fight goes on while Wood slows down. He expects a competitive fight but leans Jourdain.

Jourdain by KO in round 2 or 3
"I got Charles Jordan but I expect it to be a serious fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The host is confident in Wood, considering him the more disciplined and technical fighter. He believes Wood's grappling and BJJ will be key against Jourdain, who struggles when opponents apply wrestling pressure. He has already placed a 1.5 unit bet on Wood at +120 and expects a decision win, though a submission is possible.

submission victory possible
"Nathaniel Wood is my dog that I play for this card has already got one and a half units on him at plus 120."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul initially leans toward Nathaniel Wood as an underdog, citing Wood's speed and wrestling advantage. However, as the discussion progresses, he becomes less confident, noting that Wood's durability is questionable and that Jourdain's pressure and size could be too much. He ends up not committing firmly, saying he would prefer to take the grappler but acknowledges the risks.

"I will take the underdog shot anyways than nathaniel would and i'm gonna be looking good and feeling good until i maybe get knocked out at some point."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

The MMA Guru picks Charles Jourdain over Nathaniel Wood, despite Wood being a UK prospect. He believes Wood may be too small for featherweight and that Jourdain has significant power, as shown against Dooho Choi and Lando Vannata. He criticizes Wood for admiring his work and leaving openings, predicting Jourdain will catch him with a KO in the second round.

Jourdain wins by KO in round 2
"i'm going with charles jordan here over the fan you would i know nathaniel wood's a good uk prospect"
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Casey Kenney

Big Brady leans towards Casey Kenney, acknowledging the fight is close and the line (-200) may be too wide. He highlights Kenney's wrestling advantage and ability to get the fight to the mat, where he has a good submission game. However, he notes Wood's high striking volume and Kenney's recent quick turnaround, making him hesitant.

decision
"i'm going to lean kenny here and i'm going to pick kenny"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Oct 23, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Casey Kenney

Daniel Levi picks Casey Kenney, citing his harder hitting, wrestling background, and durability. He acknowledges Nathaniel Wood's point-fighting style and grappling but questions Wood's chin, noting all four of his losses are stoppages. Levi thinks Kenney will land harder shots and secure takedowns at the end of rounds to slightly outpoint Wood.

Dog or pass at the betting window; understands people taking a shot on Wood at +150
"i'm gonna lean with casey kenny i think he lands the harder shots i think he might secure a takedown or two at the end of rounds"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Casey Kenney

The host picks Casey Kenney, emphasizing his superior wrestling, cardio, and fight IQ. He believes Kenney will implement a grappling-heavy game plan to neutralize Wood's striking. He notes that Wood has defensive flaws and has been finished before.

Kenney by decision
"i truly think that we're going to see a casey kenny decision here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood to win by first-round TKO as an underdog. He argues that Wood is more technical than Kenney's previous opponent, has KO power, and dominated Andre Ewell. He believes Kenney is overrated as a 2-to-1 favorite and will be overaggressive, leaving himself open.

first round TKO
"i'm gonna go with nathaniel wood getting the upset on casey kenny"