UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Oct 24, 2020 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje Next Fight
Age 32
Height 6' 4"
Reach 78"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 40
Height 6' 2"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Da Woon Jung
3.24 SLpM
40.0% Str. Acc.
4.23 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
1.59 TD Avg
47.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Sam Alvey
3.28 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
3.63 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.06 TD Avg
14.0% TD Acc.
82.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Da Woon Jung - Fight History
LOSS vs Oumar Sy
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Sep 28, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Oumar Sy 0 90 of 150 60% 97 of 160 2 of 7 28% 0 0 3:02
Da Woon Jung 0 29 of 117 24% 36 of 124 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Oumar Sy 0 23 of 42 54% 23 of 42 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:27
Da Woon Jung 0 14 of 40 35% 21 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Oumar Sy 0 43 of 75 57% 43 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Da Woon Jung 0 8 of 43 18% 8 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Oumar Sy 0 24 of 33 72% 31 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:31
Da Woon Jung 0 7 of 34 20% 7 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Oumar Sy 90 of 150 60% 44 of 98 19 of 23 27 of 29 78 of 136 12 of 14 0 of 0
Da Woon Jung 29 of 117 24% 18 of 92 5 of 12 6 of 13 25 of 113 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Oumar Sy 23 of 42 54% 8 of 23 4 of 6 11 of 13 19 of 38 4 of 4 0 of 0
Da Woon Jung 14 of 40 35% 9 of 26 1 of 5 4 of 9 10 of 36 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Oumar Sy 43 of 75 57% 24 of 55 11 of 12 8 of 8 36 of 66 7 of 9 0 of 0
Da Woon Jung 8 of 43 18% 4 of 37 3 of 4 1 of 2 8 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Oumar Sy 24 of 33 72% 12 of 20 4 of 5 8 of 8 23 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Da Woon Jung 7 of 34 20% 5 of 29 1 of 3 1 of 2 7 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 22, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Oumar Sy

Angelo picks Oumar Sy, noting that the UFC is building him as a star by giving him a fight against a dangerous-looking opponent who is on a losing streak. He believes Sy's explosiveness and finishing ability will be too much for Da-woon, who has lost three in a row. He expects the line to move further in Sy's favor.

"Umar Sai wins this fight... the UFC knows how to build a superstar... he's kind of affordable in the minus 400 range, that's not going to last long."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Oumar Sy

Big Brady picks Oumar Sy by second-round submission, noting Sy is a relentless wrestler who takes opponents down immediately and keeps them there. He criticizes Jung's takedown defense against wrestlers and points out Jung was submitted by Carlos Ulberg. He expects Sy to dominate on the ground.

Sy by submission round 2
"this should be c c by submission I'll say second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Oumar Sy

Cody is high on Sy as a legitimate prospect with excellent grappling and size. He notes Sy's length (6'4", 83" reach) and ability to take down opponents and submit them. He expects Sy to take down Jung, who has poor takedown defense and submission defense, and finish via rear-naked choke.

"sign me up for C to hopefully keep the hype train and the undefeated record going"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Oumar Sy

Cody likes Oumar Sy as his matchup of the week, citing his strong wrestling and submission win in his UFC debut. He notes Sy is a big favorite at minus 600 and has a great inside the distance line at minus 160. Cody believes Sy's aggressive grappling style gives him a high ceiling and floor combination. He acknowledges Jung's experience and knockout upside but thinks Sy's wrestling will be the difference.

win inside the distance (-160)
"I'll go with Oumar Sy... he's a big favorite pushing minus 600... he's got a great inside the distance line at minus 160."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Oumar Sy

Connor agrees, pointing out that Da Woon Jung has looked shell-shocked in three fights running and may actively clinch with Sy to avoid striking, leading to a frustrating grind. He thinks Sy's grappling will be too much for Jung's current state.

"If he's going to go in there and like actively of his own volition, clinch up with Z because he doesn't like the stress of continuing to strike with him, you know, begging to be dragged down and controlled against …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Oumar Sy

Daniel Vreeland picks Oumar Sy to win. He thinks Sy's grappling and physicality will be too much for Da-woon, who has lost confidence since the Jacoby fight. He notes Sy's takedown ability and ground game, and that Da-woon has been easily taken down recently. He is not interested in the price at -450.

"I think C should should have his way with this guy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Oumar Sy

JP picks Oumar Sy because he is undefeated and has a huge reach advantage. He notes Sy's opponents often cancel fights, indicating they don't want to fight him. He thinks Sy will finish Da-woon inside the distance, possibly by submission or TKO. He says the line should be much higher.

inside the distance
"give me Umar club and sub knock out this fight's not going the distance either way"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Oumar Sy

Paul agrees, noting Sy's grappling is a clear advantage. He points out Jung's inconsistency and vulnerability to submissions, as seen in his loss to Carlos Alberg. Paul expects Sy to dominate with takedowns and control, though he acknowledges the risk of Jung landing a lucky shot.

"I think umari is the real deal with you so he's a pick for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Oumar Sy

The MMA Guru picks Oumar Sy over Jung Da-woon, highlighting Sy's reach (83 inches) and his recent first-round finishes. He notes Sy's grappling from Bulgarian Top Team and predicts a first-round submission via rear-naked choke.

first round rear-naked choke
"I'm going to go with Umar side getting this one done by first round run naked choke"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Oumar Sy

Zane notes that Da Woon Jung's confidence is badly shot after recent losses, and he expects Jung to get blanketed by Sy's grinding takedown and control game. He thinks Sy might even get a submission, as jiu-jitsu is a 'magic bullet' at light heavyweight.

"I think he's just going to get to kind of blanket him and it's just going to be a three round grind."
LOSS vs Carlos Ulberg
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 4:49 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Ulberg 1 81 of 154 52% 91 of 165 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:41
Da Woon Jung 0 58 of 120 48% 60 of 123 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Ulberg 1 19 of 36 52% 21 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Da Woon Jung 0 17 of 30 56% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carlos Ulberg 0 24 of 55 43% 24 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Da Woon Jung 0 23 of 44 52% 23 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Carlos Ulberg 0 38 of 63 60% 46 of 72 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:38
Da Woon Jung 0 18 of 46 39% 20 of 49 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Ulberg 81 of 154 52% 50 of 119 20 of 23 11 of 12 59 of 126 8 of 9 14 of 19
Da Woon Jung 58 of 120 48% 14 of 59 12 of 20 32 of 41 55 of 115 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Ulberg 19 of 36 52% 7 of 22 7 of 8 5 of 6 17 of 31 1 of 2 1 of 3
Da Woon Jung 17 of 30 56% 0 of 5 3 of 4 14 of 21 17 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Carlos Ulberg 24 of 55 43% 21 of 51 3 of 4 0 of 0 24 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Da Woon Jung 23 of 44 52% 4 of 18 4 of 9 15 of 17 23 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Carlos Ulberg 38 of 63 60% 22 of 46 10 of 11 6 of 6 18 of 40 7 of 7 13 of 16
Da Woon Jung 18 of 46 39% 10 of 36 5 of 7 3 of 3 15 of 42 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Angelo is very confident in Carlos Ulberg, calling him one of his most confident picks on the card. He notes that Ulberg's striking is elite with great footwork and range management. Jung is well-rounded but may try takedowns, but Ulberg should be too good a striker and should have improved takedown defense.

"I am confident in Carlos Uber very very confident one of my more confident picks on this card"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Big Brady picks Carlos Ulberg, noting his recent knockout performances and Da-un's poor recent form. He worries about Ulberg's untested takedown defense but thinks if it stays standing, Ulberg will knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout.

"I'll say oberg wins this fight wins this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Cody picks Ulberg confidently, citing his improvement since the Kennedy fight and his ability to finish fights early. He notes that Da-un has poor cardio, durability issues, and doesn't fight well at range. Cody expects Ulberg to win by knockout, possibly in the first round, and likes the under on significant strikes.

Ulberg by knockout (-140); under 1.5 rounds (-110); Ulberg under 50.5 significant strikes on Prize Picks
"Carlos oldberg gets the job done I would think by knockout but you know just to be safe ulberg just the straight up pick"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Daniel Levi picks Carlos Ulberg but with some hesitation. He notes that both fighters are counter-strikers, which could lead to a slow fight. Ulberg has a nasty check left hook and big kicks, but Da-un is a step up in competition. Levi says he is not as confident as in Ulberg's previous fights because Da-un won't rush in recklessly. He still expects Ulberg to win, possibly by knockout if Da-un overcommits.

Odds mentioned: Ulberg minus 260, Da-un plus 220.
"I'm still picking olberg but the reason why I'm not as confident as I was against Ihor Potieria is because these guys are gonna go right after him whereas Da-un is kind of gonna sit back."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Ulberg is on a four-fight winning streak with three finishes, showing improved confidence and speed. He is a City Kickboxing product. Da-un is on a two-fight losing streak but is grindy and tough. Ulberg's early speed and power should be too much, and he will likely win by knockout. The KO prop is preferred over the heavy moneyline.

Ulberg by knockout
"I'm still going to take Aubrey to win by knockout but I'd rather take his knockout problem than I would the minus 300 on his money line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Paul picks Ulberg, noting his rapid improvement and Da-un's inconsistency. He mentions that Da-un looked lost against Sam Alvey and was exposed in his last two fights. Paul believes Ulberg's precision and power will be too much, and he likes the under on significant strikes.

Ulberg under 50.5 significant strikes on Prize Picks
"I think olberg is the guy who's trending in the in uh trending up and down Zhang has been always a wild cards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Ulberg over Jung Da-un, expressing frustration that Ulberg is not being given tougher opponents. He notes that Da-un can grapple with cage trips and throws but believes Ulberg's movement and striking on the back foot will neutralize that. He points out that Da-un has lost to Devin Clark and was knocked out by Jacoby, while Ulberg is on a four-fight win streak. He predicts Ulberg will win easily, likely by knockout.

"I'm going with Carlos auberg"
LOSS vs Devin Clark
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · Feb 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Devin Clark 0 18 of 52 34% 43 of 78 1 of 5 20% 0 0 5:48
Da Woon Jung 0 39 of 70 55% 96 of 136 3 of 11 27% 0 0 5:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Devin Clark 0 5 of 15 33% 9 of 20 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:06
Da Woon Jung 0 10 of 15 66% 42 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:09
2 Devin Clark 0 6 of 12 50% 23 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:16
Da Woon Jung 0 10 of 18 55% 24 of 35 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:25
3 Devin Clark 0 7 of 25 28% 11 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:26
Da Woon Jung 0 19 of 37 51% 30 of 49 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Devin Clark 18 of 52 34% 11 of 42 6 of 9 1 of 1 7 of 36 11 of 16 0 of 0
Da Woon Jung 39 of 70 55% 22 of 51 5 of 6 12 of 13 26 of 52 11 of 14 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Devin Clark 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 10 3 of 5 0 of 0
Da Woon Jung 10 of 15 66% 4 of 9 1 of 1 5 of 5 6 of 9 3 of 3 1 of 3
2 Devin Clark 6 of 12 50% 2 of 8 3 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 7 3 of 5 0 of 0
Da Woon Jung 10 of 18 55% 4 of 12 1 of 1 5 of 5 6 of 13 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Devin Clark 7 of 25 28% 4 of 19 3 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 19 5 of 6 0 of 0
Da Woon Jung 19 of 37 51% 14 of 30 3 of 4 2 of 3 14 of 30 4 of 6 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

Big Brady sees Jung as the bigger, more powerful striker with solid takedown defense. He criticizes Devin Clark's recent performance and lack of wrestling. He expects Jung to knock out Clark early, likely in the first round.

first round knockout
"I like Dao and junk to win by knockout and I think it probably comes you know pretty early"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

Cody leans toward Jung but is not confident. He notes Jung's power and elbows in the clinch, but worries about his cardio and size. He thinks Devin Clark could grind out a decision by pressing Jung against the cage. He considers the line too big and prefers to pass or bet the over 2.5 rounds at +130.

Over 2.5 rounds (+130)
"part of me is actually worried that this was this would be the big Underdog that comes through... largely this fight's a pass I guess got into my head if I had to pick I would probably take dong Jung"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

Connor picks Da Woon Jung, citing his reach advantage and consistent pressure striking. He notes that Devin Clark lacks a process in his striking, with no jab, feints, or defense, and that his father's coaching has stunted his development. Connor expects Jung to win a three-round decision, as Clark is durable but unable to handle Jung's range and output.

"Down Jung is gonna win. Yeah, I mean this one's pretty simple... Devin Clark is an utter lack of process."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

Paul also leans toward Jung but is not betting. He notes Jung's size advantage (6'4" vs 6'0") and power, but acknowledges Clark's durability and grinding style. He points out that Clark often fights to a decision and lacks killer instinct. He prefers to avoid the fight entirely.

"I'm actually siding with you with daang Jung but yeah minus 250 it just doesn't doesn't get me too excited on this car"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Da Woon Jung. He highlights Jung's size and durability, and Clark's inability to put together combinations or defend effectively. Zane notes that Clark's only chance is a surprise head kick, but Jung's consistent pressure and reach will lead to a clear decision win.

"Down Jung is gonna win. Yeah, I mean this one's pretty simple... Devin Clark is an utter lack of process."
LOSS vs Dustin Jacoby
KO (punch) R1 3:13 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Jacoby 1 14 of 23 60% 14 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Da Woon Jung 0 14 of 39 35% 14 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Jacoby 1 14 of 23 60% 14 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Da Woon Jung 0 14 of 39 35% 14 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Jacoby 14 of 23 60% 6 of 14 1 of 2 7 of 7 14 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Da Woon Jung 14 of 39 35% 6 of 26 1 of 4 7 of 9 14 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Jacoby 14 of 23 60% 6 of 14 1 of 2 7 of 7 14 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Da Woon Jung 14 of 39 35% 6 of 26 1 of 4 7 of 9 14 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Angelo picks Dustin Jacoby but is worried about Da Woon Jung's wrestling. He believes Jacoby's leg kicks will be the difference, slowing Jung down and allowing Jacoby to work his striking. He acknowledges Jung's impressive grappling and unbeaten streak, making this a tough pick.

"personally i am going to go dustin while the wrestling does worry me i think dustin's leg kicks will probably be the difference here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Big Brady picks Dustin Jacoby to win by decision. He favors Jacoby's volume and striking over Jung's power. He notes that Jung's takedown game is overrated, as he only showed it against William Knight. He thinks Jacoby's get-up game will neutralize takedowns and that Jacoby will outwork Jung over three rounds.

"i'm going to slightly lean with dustin jacoby to win this fight based off a volume based off of activity across three rounds"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

Cody leans towards Jung as a slight underdog, citing his power and wrestling as x-factors. He notes that Jacoby has holes in his game, including questionable chin and takedown defense. Cody believes Jung could exploit these with his power or takedowns, but he is not confident enough to bet.

Da Un Jung over 2 takedowns
"i got myself leaning towards it being a dogger pass"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Jacoby, but jokingly notes he is wrong on every Da Woon Jung fight, so picking Jacoby means Jung will win. He praises Jacoby's kickboxing background and ability to overcome adversity, while noting Jung's power and length. He expects Jacoby to outwork Jung down the stretch to a decision.

decision win likely; line flip noted
"since i'm wrong on every single darwin junk fight i'm going to pick dustin jacoby so that don jung wins this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

Paul also leans towards Jung, noting his power and the fact that Jacoby has been taken down and hurt in past fights. He mentions Jung's win over Kennedy Nzechukwu and his ability to finish fights. However, he is not confident and calls it a dogger pass.

Da Un Jung over 2 takedowns
"jung for you jung for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

The MMA Guru picks Da Woon Jung as an underdog over Dustin Jacoby, citing Jung's grappling ability and power. He notes Jung's win over William Knight, where he dominated grappling exchanges, and believes Jung's takedown threat will neutralize Jacoby's kicking game. He also mentions Jacoby's close fights and age (34) as concerns, while Jung is younger (28) and improving rapidly.

underdog pick
"i'm gonna be siding with darun young here he's the underdog and i'm gonna pick him"
KO (elbows) R1 3:04 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Nov 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Da Woon Jung 0 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kennedy Nzechukwu 1 16 of 49 32% 16 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Da Woon Jung 0 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kennedy Nzechukwu 1 16 of 49 32% 16 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Da Woon Jung 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kennedy Nzechukwu 16 of 49 32% 15 of 47 1 of 2 0 of 0 12 of 42 3 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Da Woon Jung 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kennedy Nzechukwu 16 of 49 32% 15 of 47 1 of 2 0 of 0 12 of 42 3 of 6 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

Angelo picks Da Woon Jung because Kennedy Nzechukwu has a habit of falling behind on rounds and relying on comeback knockouts, which is not a reliable betting strategy. He notes that Jung has good wrestling and can control the fight with takedowns, similar to his win over William Knight. Angelo believes the odds are fair and mentions a potential prop bet on Kennedy inside the distance for a refund if he loses a decision.

Kennedy to win inside the distance or decision no action
"my issue with kennedy is he has no problem getting behind on rounds no problem and you cannot build a career on losing rounds and hoping for sort of a one punch knockout come from behind victory"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

Big Brady picks Da Woon Jung because he believes Kennedy Nzechukwu is a slow starter who relies on opponents gassing out, as seen in his wins over Danilo Marquez and Carlos Oberg. Jung showed a new wrestling wrinkle by taking down William Knight eight times, and his gas tank is solid. Brady thinks Jung can mix in takedowns and won't fade like Nzechukwu's previous opponents, leading to a decision win.

Jung by decision
"I'm going to take down jung to win i'm going to take don jung to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Cody likes Nzechukwu as a dog. He argues that Jung's takedowns came against a much smaller opponent (Knight) and that Nzechukwu's size and reach will make takedowns harder. He notes Nzechukwu's improving cardio and volume, and that Jung struggled against Sam Alvey. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.

"dogger pass to take to end things"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Daniel Levi picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, emphasizing his 83-inch reach and toughness. He believes Nzechukwu's technique is improving and that he will grind out a close decision by winning the second and third rounds. Levi notes that Jung has struggled against lower-level competition and that Nzechukwu has more potential and a higher ceiling.

"give me kennedy and zetrugu to grind another one out win the second and third round and win a very close decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Jacob picks Kennedy Nzechukwu as an underdog, believing Kennedy's takedown defense will hold up and he will swarm Jung with volume. He acknowledges that Kennedy often falls behind but thinks he can win this fight, possibly inside the distance. Jacob is not very confident but likes the underdog play.

"i kind of like the underdog play here i'm not real confident in it but i like kennedy uh win this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

Paul leans toward Jung because of his wrestling. He notes Jung scored eight takedowns against William Knight, though Knight is much smaller. He thinks Jung can get takedowns and control Nzechukwu, but acknowledges Nzechukwu showed improvements in his last fight.

"i'm gonna lean towards the wrestler you know me i always do"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2021 (fight day)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

The Guru predicts Kennedy Nzechukwu will win by TKO in the second round. He describes a competitive first round with both fighters landing, but Nzechukwu's body work and knees take over in the second, culminating in a counter hook that drops Da Woon Jung. The Guru emphasizes Nzechukwu's body shots and clinch work as key factors.

TKO in round 2
"nazi trick who landing knees to the body down young separates tries to go for a big combo gets cracked again... that's when who's going to count catch him in a big exchange put him down with a counter hook …"
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Vettori vs. Holland · Apr 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Da Woon Jung 0 28 of 46 60% 73 of 99 8 of 9 88% 0 0 12:04
William Knight 0 17 of 29 58% 38 of 50 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Da Woon Jung 0 4 of 8 50% 16 of 20 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:26
William Knight 0 6 of 12 50% 18 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:08
2 Da Woon Jung 0 24 of 37 64% 39 of 58 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:56
William Knight 0 9 of 12 75% 9 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Da Woon Jung 0 0 of 1 0% 18 of 21 3 of 3 100% 0 0 4:42
William Knight 0 2 of 5 40% 11 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Da Woon Jung 28 of 46 60% 20 of 37 0 of 1 8 of 8 11 of 23 0 of 0 17 of 23
William Knight 17 of 29 58% 5 of 13 1 of 1 11 of 15 17 of 26 0 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Da Woon Jung 4 of 8 50% 1 of 4 0 of 1 3 of 3 3 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1
William Knight 6 of 12 50% 0 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 10 6 of 11 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Da Woon Jung 24 of 37 64% 19 of 32 0 of 0 5 of 5 8 of 15 0 of 0 16 of 22
William Knight 9 of 12 75% 3 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 5 9 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Da Woon Jung 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
William Knight 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

Big Brady picks Jung to win by first-round knockout. He believes Jung is the better striker with significant power, and Knight is hittable with poor striking defense (33%). Brady expects Jung to stuff Knight's takedowns and land a knockout, as Knight has been knocked out before. He notes that if Knight can grind, he could win, but the more likely scenario is a Jung KO. Brady is passing on betting due to the line movement.

"i'm going to take dongjong to win by give me a first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
William Knight

Cody picks Knight, citing his power, cardio, and ring IQ. He notes Jung's poor performance against Alvey and Knight's ability to come back from adversity. He thinks Knight's pressure and power will be too much.

"i took him plus 120 yesterday because i was like you're giving me plus 120"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Apr 9, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Da Woon Jung

Daniel Levi picks Da Woon Jung, despite his disappointing performance against Sam Alvey. He notes that Jung showed in the third round what he can do when he lets his hands go, and he has a significant height and reach advantage. Levi is concerned about William Knight leaving his chin up in the air and thinks Jung can capitalize. He is not sure about the method but picks Jung to win.

"I'm actually gonna go with dawun zhang to get this one done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
William Knight

The host expects Knight to close the distance, clinch, and drag Jung to the ground, nullifying Jung's size and striking advantage. He notes that Knight is a dense, strong fighter with good durability, and that his grappling-heavy game plan should be effective. He picks Knight to grind out a decision victory, though he acknowledges that Jung has power and could land a knockout.

Knight by decision
"i think knight will be successful in closing a distance getting a hold of jung dragging him to the ground"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
William Knight

Paul picks Knight, calling him a 'poor man's Derrick Lewis' with power and cardio. He notes Knight's ability to get back up from takedowns and his ring IQ. He thinks Knight is a live dog.

"thick willy's a poor man's derrick lewis"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

The MMA Guru picks Da Woon Jung, citing his size advantage over the smaller William Knight. He thinks both are not technically great but Jung's reach and front kick will keep Knight at bay. He notes Jung has decent takedown defense and KO power. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for Jung.

"i'm going to go with darwin young just by being a bigger guy on the feet"
LOSS vs Sam Alvey
Draw (split) (29–28, 28–29, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Oct 24, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Da Woon Jung 1 56 of 126 44% 61 of 133 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:25
Sam Alvey 0 59 of 166 35% 69 of 177 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Da Woon Jung 0 20 of 42 47% 20 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Sam Alvey 0 22 of 64 34% 27 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Da Woon Jung 0 19 of 49 38% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Alvey 0 23 of 60 38% 23 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Da Woon Jung 1 17 of 35 48% 22 of 42 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:09
Sam Alvey 0 14 of 42 33% 19 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Da Woon Jung 56 of 126 44% 43 of 108 5 of 10 8 of 8 46 of 114 6 of 8 4 of 4
Sam Alvey 59 of 166 35% 38 of 140 3 of 8 18 of 18 56 of 162 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Da Woon Jung 20 of 42 47% 13 of 35 4 of 4 3 of 3 19 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 22 of 64 34% 14 of 53 1 of 4 7 of 7 21 of 63 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Da Woon Jung 19 of 49 38% 13 of 39 1 of 5 5 of 5 19 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 23 of 60 38% 14 of 50 2 of 3 7 of 7 23 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Da Woon Jung 17 of 35 48% 17 of 34 0 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 24 5 of 7 4 of 4
Sam Alvey 14 of 42 33% 10 of 37 0 of 1 4 of 4 12 of 39 1 of 2 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

Big Brady is confident in Da Woon Jung, citing his high output (6.59 significant strikes per minute) compared to Alvey's low volume. He notes Jung's good chin and cardio, and struggles to see a path to victory for Alvey. He predicts a first-round knockout, though he acknowledges a decision is possible.

first round knockout
"give me dongjong i'm going to predict a give me a first round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Da Woon Jung

Daniel Levi picks Da Woon Jung, citing his durability, discipline, and jab. He notes that Alvey is on the decline and has been figured out, with his only recent knockout being against a low-level opponent. Levi believes Jung will stay technical, pick Alvey apart with the jab, and avoid the counter right hook, likely winning by early knockout.

Jung opened -600 and has been bet down to -330; Alvey's chin isn't the same at 205; Jung will win early, possibly first round
"i'm going with dawun jung to get the biggest win of his career"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

The host leans toward Da Woon Jung, noting that Jung is younger, more aggressive, and has better output. He questions Sam Alvey's durability and recent form, but is not confident enough to bet the moneyline at -370. He suggests Jung by knockout as a prop.

Jung by knockout, over 1.5 rounds
"i'll probably lean with jung here as a prediction uh in terms of betting yeah i'm not i'm not parlaying him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

The MMA Guru picks Da Woon Jung to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Jung is more technical and controlled than Ryan Spann (who struggled with Alvey), sets up shots with feints, and is coming off a KO win over Mike Rodriguez. He criticizes Alvey for losing too many times and being 34 years old.

first round TKO
"i'm gonna go with doubt on you and getting it done i reckon you'll tko sam alvey"
KO/TKO (punch) R1 1:04 · UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie · Dec 21, 2019
Sam Alvey - Fight History
TKO (punches) R1 1:56 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill · Aug 06, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Sam Alvey 2 22 of 37 59% 40 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Sam Alvey 2 22 of 37 59% 40 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michał Oleksiejczuk 3 of 11 27% 1 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 22 of 37 59% 18 of 33 4 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 19 0 of 1 12 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michał Oleksiejczuk 3 of 11 27% 1 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 22 of 37 59% 18 of 33 4 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 19 0 of 1 12 of 17
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Angelo picks Michał Oleksiejczuk despite his poor performance against Dustin Jacoby. He highlights Oleksiejczuk's speed and pressure, and notes that Sam Alvey's chin may be fading after getting rocked by Brendan Allen. He believes Oleksiejczuk can stay on the outside and avoid Alvey's wild strikes to win.

"michael's going to be my pick here because even though he looked pretty bad in that fight with dustin jacoby he's still lightning fast and we saw that sam alvey's chin might be fading here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Big Brady is very confident in Michał Oleksiejczuk, noting that Sam Alvey is on an eight-fight winless streak and has not won since 2018. He describes Alvey's style as low-volume and predictable, while Oleksiejczuk is a fast starter who throws combinations and attacks the body. He predicts a first-round knockout win for Oleksiejczuk, stating that Alvey's chin is questionable and he expects a statement performance.

first round knockout prediction
"i think ola zach should win this fight and i'm actually going to take all the stage to win by knockout and i'll say he does knock out alvey in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Cody also picks Oleksiejczuk, noting that Alvey's durability is fading and he has been stopped in recent fights. He mentions that Alvey's only chance is a puncher's chance, but his power hasn't been there. Cody believes Oleksiejczuk will swarm Alvey and finish him early, especially if Alvey goes into 'YOLO mode' for his last fight.

Under 1.5 rounds (+140); fight doesn't go to decision (-170)
"Oleksiejczuk gets the job done... I would say the under one and a half rounds... this will be a violent fight."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Daniel Levi picks Michał Oleksiejczuk as part of a parlay with Jamahal Hill, citing Sam Alvey's eight-fight winless streak, low output, and declining chin. He expects Oleksiejczuk to walk Alvey down and land big body shots and hooks, likely finishing him in the first round. Levi notes Alvey's counter right hand and guillotine as minor threats but believes Oleksiejczuk's power and pressure will be too much.

Parlayed with Jamahal Hill at -158 to win 2 units; predicts first-round KO
"I think Me Hall's gonna walk this dude down and I think he's gonna come out here land big body shots... knock out Sam Alvey in the first round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Paul picks Oleksiejczuk but is wary of the -700 price. He notes that Alvey is on a long losing streak and has lost durability. Paul is concerned about Oleksiejczuk's weight cut to 185 and wants to see weigh-ins. He suggests props like Oleksiejczuk by decision (+175) or inside the distance (-140).

Oleksiejczuk by decision (+175) or inside the distance (-140); under 1.5 rounds (+140)
"Oleksiejczuk will be the pick... minus 700 is too wide for me... I want to see the cut."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

The MMA Guru picks Michał Oleksiejczuk by first-round TKO via body shot. He notes Sam Alvey's recent decline, being finished by Brendan Allen and Julian Marquez. He praises Oleksiejczuk's toughness and win over Shamil Gamzatov, and believes Alvey has no answer on the feet or on the ground. He also mentions Oleksiejczuk is only 27 and improving.

first round tko via body shot
"i'm going to go first round tko with her body shot for macaulay alex heychuck against sam alvey"
LOSS vs Brendan Allen
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:10 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · Feb 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brendan Allen 0 24 of 57 42% 24 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Sam Alvey 1 36 of 54 66% 36 of 54 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brendan Allen 0 18 of 43 41% 18 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Sam Alvey 0 25 of 37 67% 25 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:34
2 Brendan Allen 0 6 of 14 42% 6 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Alvey 1 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brendan Allen 24 of 57 42% 20 of 52 2 of 3 2 of 2 24 of 56 0 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 36 of 54 66% 15 of 32 14 of 15 7 of 7 32 of 47 2 of 3 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brendan Allen 18 of 43 41% 16 of 40 1 of 2 1 of 1 18 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 25 of 37 67% 11 of 22 10 of 11 4 of 4 23 of 34 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Brendan Allen 6 of 14 42% 4 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 11 of 17 64% 4 of 10 4 of 4 3 of 3 9 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brendan Allen vs. Sam Alvey

Round 1
Due to a late replacement, Alvey (33-16-1, 1 NC; 10-11-1, 1 NC UFC) now finds himself taking on Allen (17-5, 5-2 UFC) in the light heavyweight division. The two men that hail from an area in Wisconsin about a half hour from one another meet in the center of the cage, and referee Chris Tognoni serves as the onlooker. The gloves do not get touched, as Allen would prefer to come out fighting. Allen comes out swinging, and Alvey backs up to the wall. When Allen throws recklessly, Alvey counters him with a quick, clean right hook that shocks Allen. “All-In” shoots in for a takedown, and Alvey sprawls and pushes Allen down to the mat. “Smile’n Sam” tosses Allen away, and he backs away awaiting an advancing Allen. Allen does just that, marching forward to attack, and Alvey is prepared with a counter right hook again. Allen is wary of this strike, and as he pays attention to it, Alvey kicks his lead leg hard. Alvey connects with a one-two, and Allen shakes it off and walks face-first into a sharp punch. Allen does not slow down, kicking up high with a kick. Alvey catches it, sets the leg down and lands a fast one-two again. Allen tries to find a way in, and he reaches out with a jab to the body. As he lets loose with a high body kick, Alvey reaches out with a long left hand across the bow. Alvey’s one-two just misses again, and he lines another up right when Allen takes the forward step to him. Alvey’s range is giving Allen issues, and he again clips Allen with a right. Allen rushes in, gets pushed away and runs forward with a spinning back fist. The strike is blocked by both of Alvey’s arms, and Allen calmly backs away to start hacking at Alvey’s lead leg. Alvey tags Allen once more with a pair of punches, leading Allen to blitz in and pursue a takedown. Allen splits off and rocks Alvey with a right hook. They both throw at the same time, hurting each other, and a follow-up from Allen drops Alvey to a knee against the wall. Alvey gets up, they brawl it out for a few more seconds, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alvey
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Alvey
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Alvey

Round 2
Allen leads the dance to start off the second round, with a few head kick that are blocked fully. Alvey backs off, and a foot from Allen’s spinning wheel kick grazes his jaw. Alvey blitzes ahead with a surge of punches, and he does this again to give Allen pause. Allen gathers himself and marches Alvey down, and Alvey is there with a heavy leg kick to meet him. “All-In” goes all-in with a body kick, and Alvey takes it like a champ and reaches out with a right. Allen throws up another head kick, and he punches the body and dips back out of the way when Alvey prepares to counter. Alvey charges ahead, and this assault misses the mark. Allen fires off a right to the body and a left to the head, and “Smile’n Sam” is no longer smiling from the strikes.
Alvey falls to his knees in big trouble, and Allen instantly jumps on to take Alvey’s back. Alvey leans towards the fence, only to find that Allen has set up a rear-naked choke without any hooks in. Hooks? “All-In” don't need no stinkin’ hooks. Allen crushes the windpipe with all his might, and Alvey reluctantly surrenders.
The unfortunate winless streak continues for Alvey, who took on a new opponent in a different weight class on a week’s notice.

The Official Result
Brendan Allen def. Sam Alvey R2 2:10 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Angelo picks Brendan Allen but with hesitation. He notes Allen is the better athlete and wrestler, but has chin issues and is coming off a knockout loss. Alvey is on a long winless streak but has power and experience. Angelo thinks Allen should wrestle and take it seriously, but calls it a live bet fight if Allen stands and trades. He picks Allen with the assumption he wrestles.

Live bet suggestion: if Allen stands and trades, bet Alvey.
"phil haus is the pick with the assumption that he's going to wrestle and take this a little more seriously"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Alvey's only path is a knockout. He points out that Allen has better volume and technique, and that Alvey's takedown defense is historically strong but Allen's wrestling may not be good enough to take him down. However, he thinks Allen should win on the feet. He is confident in Allen.

"i am siding with brandon allen"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Daniel Levi leans Brendan Allen but calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He notes Allen is taking the fight on four days' notice, moving up to 205 lbs, and has been knocked out in two of his last three. However, he thinks Allen is the better fighter and should have the tools to beat Alvey, who often does nothing for long stretches. Levi suggests a small bet on Alvey at +325 for those looking for a dog, but his pick is Allen.

small half unit or one unit shot on alvey and hope that he can ko a guy that's out of shape in the wrong way class
"i lean brendan because i just think he's a better fighter but if i were to bed aside it'd be a small half unit or one unit shot on alvey"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Lock of the Night picks Allen, citing the massive skill discrepancy. He notes Allen's improved striking and ability to stay at range, similar to the Soriano fight. He warns that Allen should not chase takedowns excessively to avoid gassing. He likes Allen by decision at +165 and the over 2.5 rounds.

Allen by decision +165, over 2.5 rounds even money
"i do like the island side here... allen via decision at plus one that's plus 165 right now that's kind of where i'm leaning"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Paul thinks Allen is the younger, faster, and quicker fighter. He notes that Alvey is on a seven-fight winless streak and hasn't won since 2018. He believes Allen's volume and leg kicks will be key, and that Alvey's only path is a lucky punch. He is confident Allen wins but acknowledges the short notice could affect his gas tank.

"i think brandon allen is the uh younger spryer faster quicker guy he just needs to show up short notice hopefully that doesn't affect the gas tank"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 31, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

The MMA Guru picks Brendan Allen (Phil Horse) but expresses concern about his chin, calling it 'genetically bad'. He notes Sam Alvey doesn't have the best chin either, and expects Allen to land better shots and get a first-round KO. However, he is hesitant due to Allen's vulnerability to being wobbled.

KO, round 1, underdog odds mentioned (over 2 to 1)
"i'm gonna go fill horse but he's got such a genetically bad chin it's worrying... i'll say phil horse gets a first round ko"
Decision (split) (27–28, 28–27, 28–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Chikadze · Aug 28, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Wellington Turman 0 68 of 122 55% 114 of 169 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:54
Sam Alvey 0 69 of 119 57% 75 of 126 2 of 9 22% 0 0 2:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Wellington Turman 0 8 of 20 40% 42 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Sam Alvey 0 13 of 16 81% 17 of 20 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:50
2 Wellington Turman 0 26 of 44 59% 32 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Sam Alvey 0 24 of 44 54% 24 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:54
3 Wellington Turman 0 34 of 58 58% 40 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Sam Alvey 0 32 of 59 54% 34 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Wellington Turman 68 of 122 55% 55 of 105 9 of 13 4 of 4 58 of 112 10 of 10 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 69 of 119 57% 36 of 77 19 of 27 14 of 15 63 of 113 6 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Wellington Turman 8 of 20 40% 8 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 17 3 of 3 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 13 of 16 81% 4 of 7 5 of 5 4 of 4 10 of 13 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Wellington Turman 26 of 44 59% 17 of 34 5 of 6 4 of 4 21 of 39 5 of 5 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 24 of 44 54% 12 of 29 5 of 8 7 of 7 24 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Wellington Turman 34 of 58 58% 30 of 52 4 of 6 0 of 0 32 of 56 2 of 2 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 32 of 59 54% 20 of 41 9 of 14 3 of 4 29 of 56 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Wellington Turman

Angelo picks Turman, citing his BJJ black belt, slick ground game, and clear path to victory via takedowns. He notes training feedback from Dan Cramer that Turman feels good. He acknowledges Alvey's deceptive power but believes Turman will get the submission.

Angelo might bet the under on rounds because he doesn't think it sees a decision.
"wellington's the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sam Alvey

Cody picks Alvey as a dog, citing his strong takedown defense and power. He notes that Turman has poor takedown accuracy and tends to lose position on the ground. Cody thinks Alvey's veteran savvy and ability to fight 15 minutes will pay off. He is concerned about Alvey's recent losing streak but believes the style matchup favors him.

"i'm gonna have faith that he is going to get it done so this will be a dog play"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Wellington Turman

Jacob picks Turman but is hesitant, noting Turman was knocked out cold two months ago and may be hesitant. He agrees the UFC is feeding Alvey to Turman, but warns Alvey is tough and could win if he eats shots. He stayed away from betting.

"my official pick i guess would be uh would be wellington"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Sam Alvey

Lock picks Alvey by KO at +300, believing Alvey's power and durability will be too much for Turman. He notes Turman has shown poor durability, getting knocked out by Andrew Sanchez and Bruno Silva. Lock thinks Alvey's takedown defense and clinch strength will keep the fight standing, where he can land a big shot. He expects Alvey to win minutes only by knockout, not decision.

Alvey by KO +300
"sam alvi by ko at plus 300 is absolutely ridiculous as that's probably his best win condition in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sam Alvey

Paul picks Alvey, surprised himself but noting that Turman is the exact type of fighter Alvey can beat. He highlights Alvey's takedown defense and left hand power. Paul thinks Turman's grappling is overrated and that he tires easily. He expects Alvey to win by knockout or decision.

Alvey inside the distance
"i'm considering a bet on sam alvey here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Sam Alvey

The Guru picks Sam Alvey as an underdog, questioning Wellington Turman's chin after two consecutive KO losses and his quick return. He believes Alvey's toughness, cardio, and grappling awareness will allow him to outlast Turman and win a unanimous decision. The Guru dismisses Turman's grappling threat and expects Alvey to display veteran savvy.

Alvey by unanimous decision
"i'm picking sam alvey to get this one done i'll say by unanimous decision"
LOSS vs Julian Marquez
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:07 · UFC on ABC: Vettori vs. Holland · Apr 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Marquez 0 29 of 78 37% 29 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Sam Alvey 1 61 of 100 61% 62 of 101 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Marquez 0 24 of 54 44% 24 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Alvey 0 27 of 52 51% 28 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Julian Marquez 0 5 of 24 20% 5 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Sam Alvey 1 34 of 48 70% 34 of 48 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Marquez 29 of 78 37% 21 of 64 4 of 8 4 of 6 28 of 77 1 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 61 of 100 61% 46 of 78 15 of 22 0 of 0 41 of 75 1 of 1 19 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Marquez 24 of 54 44% 16 of 44 4 of 5 4 of 5 23 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 27 of 52 51% 19 of 38 8 of 14 0 of 0 26 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Julian Marquez 5 of 24 20% 5 of 20 0 of 3 0 of 1 5 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 34 of 48 70% 27 of 40 7 of 8 0 of 0 15 of 24 0 of 0 19 of 24
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Big Brady picks Marquez to win by decision, despite Marquez having a 100% finish rate. He thinks Marquez will pressure and outpoint Alvey, who has not won in a long time and takes a lot of damage. Brady is not confident in the pick and is passing on betting, as he finds the fight potentially boring and the line not appealing. He notes both fighters are durable and the fight likely goes to decision.

"i'm going to take marquez to win by decision which is weird because he has a 100 finish rate"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Cody picks Marquez, citing his recovery from ring rust, James Krause's coaching, and Alvey's difficult weight cut to 185. He notes Alvey's low output and lack of offensive wrestling, while Marquez has better timing and power. He expects Marquez to edge it.

Over 2.5 rounds at +100 is favorite play
"i'm hitting this over two and a half at plus one hundred"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Apr 9, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Sam Alvey

Daniel Levi picks Sam Alvey, despite acknowledging that Alvey is a long-term fade and the blueprint to beat him is well-known. He is not sold on Julian Marquez, viewing him as an opportunistic finisher who looked horrendous against Maki Pitolo. Levi thinks the fight could be an ugly middleweight scrap that could go either way, so he goes with Alvey for the first time in years.

"I'm going to actually take alvey for the first time in years"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sam Alvey

The host leans Alvey for the value, noting that Marquez's win over Pitolo was a sloppy fight and that Alvey has decent takedown defense and power. However, he acknowledges that Alvey fights on the back foot and hasn't won in five fights. He picks Alvey by decision, but calls the fight a 'slop fest' and advises against betting it.

"i lean alvey in terms of the value here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sam Alvey

Paul leans Alvey, noting his durability and ability to lull opponents into slow fights. He wants to see weigh-ins but thinks Alvey's counter-punching and experience could be factors. He is not confident due to Alvey's losing streak and weight cut.

"it would be dogger pass i would take smile and sam"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

The MMA Guru picks Julian Marquez by first-round KO, despite calling Marquez 'so bad' and 'sloppy'. He notes Marquez has big power and a great chin, while Sam Alvey is moving down to middleweight after being knocked out previously. He thinks Marquez will lose some grappling exchanges early but then land a big right hand to finish Alvey. He expects Alvey to be 'frowning' after the loss.

first round knockout
"i see a first round ko for julian marquez"
LOSS vs Da Woon Jung
Draw (split) (29–28, 28–29, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Oct 24, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Da Woon Jung 1 56 of 126 44% 61 of 133 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:25
Sam Alvey 0 59 of 166 35% 69 of 177 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Da Woon Jung 0 20 of 42 47% 20 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Sam Alvey 0 22 of 64 34% 27 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Da Woon Jung 0 19 of 49 38% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Alvey 0 23 of 60 38% 23 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Da Woon Jung 1 17 of 35 48% 22 of 42 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:09
Sam Alvey 0 14 of 42 33% 19 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Da Woon Jung 56 of 126 44% 43 of 108 5 of 10 8 of 8 46 of 114 6 of 8 4 of 4
Sam Alvey 59 of 166 35% 38 of 140 3 of 8 18 of 18 56 of 162 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Da Woon Jung 20 of 42 47% 13 of 35 4 of 4 3 of 3 19 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 22 of 64 34% 14 of 53 1 of 4 7 of 7 21 of 63 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Da Woon Jung 19 of 49 38% 13 of 39 1 of 5 5 of 5 19 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 23 of 60 38% 14 of 50 2 of 3 7 of 7 23 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Da Woon Jung 17 of 35 48% 17 of 34 0 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 24 5 of 7 4 of 4
Sam Alvey 14 of 42 33% 10 of 37 0 of 1 4 of 4 12 of 39 1 of 2 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

Big Brady is confident in Da Woon Jung, citing his high output (6.59 significant strikes per minute) compared to Alvey's low volume. He notes Jung's good chin and cardio, and struggles to see a path to victory for Alvey. He predicts a first-round knockout, though he acknowledges a decision is possible.

first round knockout
"give me dongjong i'm going to predict a give me a first round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Da Woon Jung

Daniel Levi picks Da Woon Jung, citing his durability, discipline, and jab. He notes that Alvey is on the decline and has been figured out, with his only recent knockout being against a low-level opponent. Levi believes Jung will stay technical, pick Alvey apart with the jab, and avoid the counter right hook, likely winning by early knockout.

Jung opened -600 and has been bet down to -330; Alvey's chin isn't the same at 205; Jung will win early, possibly first round
"i'm going with dawun jung to get the biggest win of his career"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

The host leans toward Da Woon Jung, noting that Jung is younger, more aggressive, and has better output. He questions Sam Alvey's durability and recent form, but is not confident enough to bet the moneyline at -370. He suggests Jung by knockout as a prop.

Jung by knockout, over 1.5 rounds
"i'll probably lean with jung here as a prediction uh in terms of betting yeah i'm not i'm not parlaying him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

The MMA Guru picks Da Woon Jung to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Jung is more technical and controlled than Ryan Spann (who struggled with Alvey), sets up shots with feints, and is coming off a KO win over Mike Rodriguez. He criticizes Alvey for losing too many times and being 34 years old.

first round TKO
"i'm gonna go with doubt on you and getting it done i reckon you'll tko sam alvey"
LOSS vs Ryan Spann
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ryan Spann 0 51 of 115 44% 52 of 116 2 of 7 28% 1 0 3:01
Sam Alvey 0 57 of 108 52% 103 of 156 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ryan Spann 0 9 of 27 33% 9 of 27 2 of 4 50% 1 0 2:01
Sam Alvey 0 17 of 25 68% 57 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ryan Spann 0 22 of 39 56% 23 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
Sam Alvey 0 15 of 39 38% 17 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Ryan Spann 0 20 of 49 40% 20 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
Sam Alvey 0 25 of 44 56% 29 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ryan Spann 51 of 115 44% 41 of 102 10 of 13 0 of 0 48 of 109 3 of 6 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 57 of 108 52% 40 of 90 3 of 3 14 of 15 46 of 94 11 of 14 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ryan Spann 9 of 27 33% 7 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 24 1 of 3 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 17 of 25 68% 10 of 18 2 of 2 5 of 5 13 of 20 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Ryan Spann 22 of 39 56% 18 of 32 4 of 7 0 of 0 22 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 15 of 39 38% 9 of 32 0 of 0 6 of 7 14 of 37 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Ryan Spann 20 of 49 40% 16 of 45 4 of 4 0 of 0 18 of 46 2 of 3 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 25 of 44 56% 21 of 40 1 of 1 3 of 3 19 of 37 6 of 7 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ryan Spann vs. Sam Alvey

Round 1
Welcome back, everyone. It’s been a rough few months, and the last 24 hours have been especially rocky, but fights are officially back on the menu. We begin this 11-fight odyssey in the light heavyweight division, as rising Fortis MMA star Spann (17-5, 3-0 UFC) takes on the effervescent Alvey (33-13, 1 NC; 10-8 UFC). An unmasked Dan Miragliotta draws the first referee assignment of the evening, and with a touch of gloves, it’s on with the show! Spann begins to walk Alvey down, and starts out with a right hand and then another thudding right before ducking into a double. Snatching up the legs, Spann drags his man down; Alvey gets back to his feet and works a few hammerfists to irritate Spann. Switching to a single, Spann drops low and hits it, and Alvey flirts with grabbing the fence while he is trying to get back up. As Alvey returns to his feet, Spann sets up a standing arm-triangle choke, allowing Alvey to pepper him with a few short right hands to the torso. Spann tightens up and tries to wrench Alvey down, but Alvey resists and he does not look to be in a good position. Alvey’s head is starting to change colors, and he looks distressed but does not seem to want to fight it off. Spann looks to rip him down to the canvas, and Alvey calmly pops his head out and punches his way free. “Superman” keeps Alvey against the fence, and Alvey scores with a right hand to back off his opponent. He lands another, and Spann backpedals for a moment, before returning to the pressure. Alvey wings a few punches, and Spann throws so hard that he stumbles across the cage before regaining his composure. An inadvertent low kick catches Spann on the cup, and the action does not slow for long. Spann makes him pay for it with a heavy right hand, and Alvey shakes it off before returning fire with a right hook. The Fortis MMA fighter again throws himself off balance with a looping punch, allowing Alvey to kick his legs and send him off-balance. Spann drops down for a single, and takes a knee on the way in. Right before the round ends, Alvey sneaks in a knee and a solid elbow up top, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Spann

Round 2
Between rounds, Spann seems concerned that is taking damage from a few of Alvey’s low calf kicks. To return some damage, Spann fires a head kick up top to start the round. It delivers a serious impact even though Alvey blocks it, but Spann uses the forward movement to go after a takedown. Alvey stands him up and they clinch and break apart, allowing Alvey to catch him with a solid left hand on the way out. Spann starts to talk to his corner as the fight progresses, and Alvey continues to pepper that lead calf with kicks that continue to get Spann’s attention. Spann’s looping punches are not catching Alvey flush, and Alvey’s counters fall short. The two swing heavy leather as they crash together, and Alvey appears to get the better of the exchange as they separate. Alvey keeps his back close to the fence, but times a stiff left hand and follows it with a right hook to nail “Superman” on the chin. Spann walks through it, and throws a heavy body kick that makes Alvey circle away. Sensing the success of that kick, Spann throws a few more, and scores a hard right while Alvey tries to defend that kick. Another low kick scores for Alvey, frustrating Spann to throw all he has into a short right hook that falls shy of the mark, and Alvey dances away. Spann tags him with an overhand left after a front kick, but Alvey is unfazed. Spann charges forward to land another few punches, ending the combination with a vicious left hook. The punches for Spann are finding their mark repeatedly, although his wildness is making him fall across the cage as Alvey avoids most of the damage. “Smile’n Sam” tries to throw a spinning wheel kick of sorts, but he is several feet away, so Spann simply stands there to admire the attempt as the round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Alvey

Round 3
The final frame begins with Spann walking forward into a clinch. Alvey tries to tie him up with a Thai clinch, although Spann breaks free and clips him on the way out. Another body kick scores for Spann, and Alvey is protesting something but it is unclear what he is concerned about. The action does not stop, so Spann walks forward as he continues to talk to his coaches. Coming short with a few long punches, Spann misses but Alvey does not make him pay for it. They start taking turns throwing at each other. Suddenly, Spann whips a high kick and cracks Alvey, and Alvey is rocked. They start swinging with reckless abandon, and the chin of Alvey holds up as he shakes out the cobwebs. After trading furious leather, they separate, allowing Spann to connect with a few more body kicks. Alvey lands a few solid lefts, but Spann throws back harder and more often, blasting Alvey on the jaw. Despite the powerful shots, “Smile’n” keeps going, and Spann looks to be a little tired now. The punches and kicks for Spann are much slower than before, allowing Alvey to stick and move. Alvey goes up with his own head kick, and Spann did not like that. A huge shot from Alvey hurts Spann, and Spann shoots for a desperation takedown. Alvey catches him and sets up a 10-finger guillotine choke, but Spann muscles his way back to his feet. Alvey clips Spann again, and again, with nasty left hands as Spann is in a bad way. Spann falls against the cage, and Alvey pours it on in the waning seconds. The Team Quest fighter puts everything he has left to force a stoppage, but time expires before he can get it. What a wild end to that round, and the first fight is now in the hands of the judges. Although the post-fight interview for Joe Rogan was reportedly off the table for this event, the winner of this fight still gets one from a maskless, gloveless Rogan.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alvey (29-28 Spann)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alvey (29-28 Spann)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Alvey (29-28 Alvey)

The Official Result
Ryan Spann def. Sam Alvey via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady picks Ryan Spann to dominate Sam Alvey, expecting a clear decision victory. He notes Spann's reach advantage and submission threat, but believes Alvey's chin will hold up, preventing a knockout. He mentions Spann is a minus 380 favorite and suggests using him in parlays.

Spann by decision; Spann minus 380; parlay suggestion
"I think Span's going to dominate. Um I think he is going to dominate and win this fight, but I just think Alvie's chin is going to hold up."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Daniel Levi picks Ryan Spann, stating he has too much physically for Alvey and is the rightful favorite. He notes Spann's improvement, nasty guillotine, and physical tools (6'5", 82-inch reach). Levi thinks Alvey hasn't evolved and is deteriorating, and that Spann should capitalize on Alvey's declining chin.

"I think he's got too much for Sam in terms of the physical Department I think the line might be a little wide but I am going with Ryan span here to get a fourth win in a row"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Matt thinks the line at -380 is too wide and prefers a closer price around -250. He notes Spann's potential and crisp 1-2 but worries about his gas tank and Sam Alvey's durability and possible progression. He sees the under 2.5 rounds as the best bet and only includes Spann in a Hail Mary parlay.

under 2.5 rounds (-155), fight doesn't go to decision (-195), Hail Mary parlay piece
"I like Spanier not confident enough to make him like a main bet maybe a parlay piece like a Hail Mary parlay piece"
LOSS vs Klidson Abreu
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Edwards · Jul 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Klidson Abreu 0 28 of 77 36% 67 of 117 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:33
Sam Alvey 0 36 of 89 40% 61 of 115 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Klidson Abreu 0 6 of 21 28% 18 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
Sam Alvey 0 13 of 25 52% 27 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
2 Klidson Abreu 0 10 of 25 40% 22 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:13
Sam Alvey 0 9 of 18 50% 17 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:30
3 Klidson Abreu 0 12 of 31 38% 27 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
Sam Alvey 0 14 of 46 30% 17 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Klidson Abreu 28 of 77 36% 12 of 53 5 of 12 11 of 12 21 of 69 4 of 4 3 of 4
Sam Alvey 36 of 89 40% 17 of 60 4 of 13 15 of 16 35 of 85 1 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Klidson Abreu 6 of 21 28% 2 of 16 0 of 0 4 of 5 5 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 13 of 25 52% 7 of 16 4 of 6 2 of 3 12 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Klidson Abreu 10 of 25 40% 4 of 18 3 of 4 3 of 3 6 of 20 1 of 1 3 of 4
Sam Alvey 9 of 18 50% 4 of 11 0 of 2 5 of 5 9 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Klidson Abreu 12 of 31 38% 6 of 19 2 of 8 4 of 4 10 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 14 of 46 30% 6 of 33 0 of 5 8 of 8 14 of 43 0 of 3 0 of 0
LOSS vs Jimmy Crute
TKO (punches) R1 2:49 · UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva · Feb 10, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jimmy Crute 1 14 of 32 43% 17 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Sam Alvey 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jimmy Crute 1 14 of 32 43% 17 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Sam Alvey 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jimmy Crute 14 of 32 43% 7 of 23 2 of 3 5 of 6 9 of 23 0 of 0 5 of 9
Sam Alvey 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jimmy Crute 14 of 32 43% 7 of 23 2 of 3 5 of 6 9 of 23 0 of 0 5 of 9
Sam Alvey 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

Big Brady is confident in Da Woon Jung, citing his high output (6.59 significant strikes per minute) compared to Alvey's low volume. He notes Jung's good chin and cardio, and struggles to see a path to victory for Alvey. He predicts a first-round knockout, though he acknowledges a decision is possible.

first round knockout
"give me dongjong i'm going to predict a give me a first round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Da Woon Jung

Daniel Levi picks Da Woon Jung, citing his durability, discipline, and jab. He notes that Alvey is on the decline and has been figured out, with his only recent knockout being against a low-level opponent. Levi believes Jung will stay technical, pick Alvey apart with the jab, and avoid the counter right hook, likely winning by early knockout.

Jung opened -600 and has been bet down to -330; Alvey's chin isn't the same at 205; Jung will win early, possibly first round
"i'm going with dawun jung to get the biggest win of his career"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

The host leans toward Da Woon Jung, noting that Jung is younger, more aggressive, and has better output. He questions Sam Alvey's durability and recent form, but is not confident enough to bet the moneyline at -370. He suggests Jung by knockout as a prop.

Jung by knockout, over 1.5 rounds
"i'll probably lean with jung here as a prediction uh in terms of betting yeah i'm not i'm not parlaying him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

The MMA Guru picks Da Woon Jung to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Jung is more technical and controlled than Ryan Spann (who struggled with Alvey), sets up shots with feints, and is coming off a KO win over Mike Rodriguez. He criticizes Alvey for losing too many times and being 34 years old.

first round TKO
"i'm gonna go with doubt on you and getting it done i reckon you'll tko sam alvey"