vs
-900 +840
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Jul 10, 2021 · Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 Next Fight
Age 31
Height 5' 11"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 33
Height 5' 7"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Sean O'Malley
6.05 SLpM
60.0% Str. Acc.
3.4 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
0.24 TD Avg
42.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Kris Moutinho
3.35 SLpM
33.0% Str. Acc.
9.36 SApM
30.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
30.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Sean O'Malley
Moneyline
Caesars -900
KO/TKO
BetRivers -295
Submission
BetRivers +1300
Decision
BetWay +500
Kris Moutinho
Moneyline
FanDuel +840
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1000
Submission
BetMGM +2500
Decision
BetRivers +1400
Sean O'Malley - Fight History
SCHED vs Aiemann Zahabi
UFC Freedom 250 · Jun 14, 2026
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (11 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

AJ thinks O'Malley will be too fast for Zahabi, out-boxing and out-kickboxing him. He notes Zahabi is a pressure boxer who is slower and worse at everything O'Malley does, and doesn't bring a serious wrestling threat. He expects O'Malley to get his win streak going.

"I think Ali is going to be a bit too fast for Zahabi. I think Ali out boxes him, out kickboxes him..."
WIN vs Song Yadong
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 324 · Jan 24, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean O'Malley 0 48 of 92 52% 67 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Song Yadong 0 36 of 94 38% 69 of 130 3 of 7 42% 0 0 2:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean O'Malley 0 16 of 26 61% 22 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Song Yadong 0 10 of 23 43% 23 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:38
2 Sean O'Malley 0 7 of 20 35% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Song Yadong 0 14 of 31 45% 34 of 53 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:28
3 Sean O'Malley 0 25 of 46 54% 25 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Song Yadong 0 12 of 40 30% 12 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean O'Malley 48 of 92 52% 23 of 53 16 of 28 9 of 11 48 of 92 0 of 0 0 of 0
Song Yadong 36 of 94 38% 15 of 55 2 of 6 19 of 33 36 of 94 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean O'Malley 16 of 26 61% 6 of 13 6 of 8 4 of 5 16 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Song Yadong 10 of 23 43% 0 of 7 0 of 1 10 of 15 10 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sean O'Malley 7 of 20 35% 1 of 8 5 of 11 1 of 1 7 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Song Yadong 14 of 31 45% 8 of 19 1 of 2 5 of 10 14 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sean O'Malley 25 of 46 54% 16 of 32 5 of 9 4 of 5 25 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Song Yadong 12 of 40 30% 7 of 29 1 of 3 4 of 8 12 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sean O'Malley vs. Yadong Song
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: O’Malley (-205), Song (+170)

Round 1
A bantamweight striker’s delight will treat fans in the co-headliner, as O'Malley (18-3, 1 NC; 10-3, 1 NC UFC) looks to get back on championship track. He will face off against underrated Team Alpha Male product Song (22-8-1, 1 NC; 11-3-1 UFC), whose only losses in the Octagon after 15 walks are to Kyler Phillips, Cory Sandhagen and Petr Yan. The third man in the cage tonight for this one will be referee Herb Dean, and gloves are touched before they start to fly.
Immediately after the touch, Song lets fly a low kick that O'Malley just stares at. O'Malley advances, peeling back right before reaching his opponent, and does this a couple times. Song kicks him in the front leg again a few times, and O'Malley answers with one back. The two bounce back and forth without throwing much for a good 30 seconds, until Song springs into action with a few punches. O'Malley potshots him with a left after Song completes his volley, but he cannot get out of the way of the oncoming kick and swarming offense. They trade spinning kicks, skimming them off one another, with O'Malley’s to the body the more effective. O'Malley jabs with front kicks to the body to stave off Song, who is slowly works his way in.
Song kicks the front leg and scores a right on the outside, only for O'Malley to counter him back. The result is a lot of tit-for-tat offense, where one man lands and the other tries to pay him back. Song rushes out with a left hand, and O'Malley digs a couple strikes to the body. Song walks through a front kick to lash out at the lead wheel of the Montanan, and he tries to corner O'Malley but cannot quite get a bead on his movement. Song drives home another hefty kick, and he charges in for a takedown attempt and puts O'Malley on his back. O'Malley defends with a guillotine choke, and when that fails, O'Malley shrugs to someone as if he thinks he should immediately be stood back up. Song grinds him out for the remainder of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Song
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 2
Like the previous round, Song starts off with a glove touch and a calf kick. When O'Malley stumbles from the kick, Song tries to take advantage of it, and he just misses with a spinning back fist. Song walks through a front kick to plant a right hand on the forehead, and O'Malley no-sells it and looks for a counter. Song bounces in with a left hand and a high kick, and O'Malley slides away and responds with a body shot. Song goes to the front leg again, with O'Malley switching stances and taking damage on both as welts and redness are present on both legs. Song pounds the former champ with a left hand, shooting in for a single that he uses to drag O'Malley to a knee. O'Malley wall-walks to get back up with Song’s hands wrapped around his waist, and he elbows Song’s arms in hopes of breaking the grip.
Song knees the back of the thigh repeatedly, and he grabs the fence to reposition himself and then holds his arm low to defend some of the knee strikes. Song sweeps his post arm, and he transitions to a double and hits it while O'Malley looks for a guillotine, and the Team Alpha Male-trained athlete easily breaks out of it to establish top control. When O'Malley scoots back to his feet, Song follows him and hammers his front leg before blasting him in the face with a left hand. O'Malley jabs and gets countered by an overhand right, but it is his low kick that most gets O'Malley’s attention. Song loads up on power punches as he walks down the pink-shorted athlete, and O'Malley is able to sway and evade the worst of them. O'Malley gets off a body kick, and Song kicks the leg once before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Song
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 3
O'Malley knows that an advancing Song is coming to strike him, so he makes sure to get out of the way before it can get to him. Song does not throw it, instead pawing out his jab to set up his looping right hooks that buzz the tower repeatedly. O'Malley jabs him to the belly, and his leg gets kicked hard. Song points to his leg after checking a kick, as if to taunt O'Malley for throwing it. He then chambers and fires multiple strong low kicks, ignoring a couple left hooks that catch him at least partially when he is off-balance. O'Malley sticks his foe with a right, and he slips away from the increasingly telegraphed counter. Song continues to chase down “Suga Sean,” darting after a takedown and pulling back when it is not there. O'Malley busts up Song’s nose to start it trickling down the mouth, and he does not register it as he stays within kickboxing range practically the whole time.
O'Malley flashes out jabs to the head and body, and he stuffs a takedown as boos rain down. Song just misses on a looping left hand, and he pushes out a right and dings O'Malley when ducking. O'Malley gathers his thoughts and belts the Chinese competitor with a crisp right hand. Song ducks and feints his way forward, coming out behind left hooks while O'Malley is the quicker, more direct striker with less arc on his swings. Song keeps walking the former champ down, and he misses by an inch with a spinning back elbow. When O'Malley counters him, Song smiles and goes after a takedown. O'Malley tosses him aside and knees him right on the chin, and a bloodied Song just grins and walks forward. O'Malley gets in a left, and he gets Song’s attention further with a right. Song points to the ground to initiate a brawl, and O'Malley motions to flip a coin and then fires off a high kick. The match comes to a close, with the first round likely the difference maker.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley (29-28 Song)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley (29-28 Song)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley (29-28 Song)

The Official Result
Sean O’Malley def. Yadong Song via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Angelo picks Sean O'Malley, arguing that O'Malley's best version (when he was partying and podcasting) would win. He believes O'Malley's clean footwork and accuracy will exploit Yadong's lack of striking defense. He notes Yadong is hittable and throws with power, but O'Malley should pick him apart. He hopes O'Malley returns to his old lifestyle for the win.

"Shawn Ali is going to be the pick, but I am not as confident in him as these odds because Ydong Song is good."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Big Brady notes O'Malley's losses came when opponents took him down repeatedly, but Song Yadong averages less than one takedown per 15 minutes. He believes O'Malley is the better striker and will win a striking match. He worries about O'Malley's mentality after two losses to Merab but expects the best version to win by decision.

O'Malley by decision
"I'm never ever picking against Shawn Ali when he's fighting another striker. I mean, if you're not taking down Shawn Ali consistently, you're going to lose."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Cody picks Sean O'Malley but is hesitant due to O'Malley's potential lack of motivation and Song Yadong's durability. He notes O'Malley's length and accuracy should allow him to win the first two rounds, but worries about a gritty third round. He suggests O'Malley by decision as a prop.

Sean O'Malley by decision
"I do actually have Sugar Sean again. The length, the speed, the accuracy um and the slow start, the presumable slow start from Sonia Dong hopefully get it done for him, but I don't feel great about it."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Connor also picks O'Malley, emphasizing that Song Yadong is an unimaginative fighter who lacks variety in his approach. He notes that Song's best path to victory (low kicks and wrestling) is possible but unlikely given O'Malley's mobility and range. Connor believes O'Malley's swagger and ability to make opponents hesitant will be key, and that Song's inability to cut off the cage will leave him chasing O'Malley all night.

O'Malley opened at -300, now -200; Song opened at +250, now +170. Connor thinks O'Malley could be a bigger favorite.
"Sean O'Malley is just too difficult to track down and has too much range for Song Yadong to succeed playing his game."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2026 (16 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Daniel Vreeland picks Song Yadong to win by decision. He criticizes O'Malley's recent timidity and reliance on counters, and notes that O'Malley has talked about retirement. Vreeland believes Song has the speed, leg kicks, and wrestling to compete with O'Malley, and that his well-rounded approach and power will be the deciding factors. He also mentions that Song has taken down Peter Yan, which bodes well for his wrestling advantage.

"I think Sonia Dong is going to come out here, get the biggest win of his career, and put himself in title contention."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

James believes O'Malley is a level above everywhere, with superior fight IQ and striking IQ. He expects O'Malley to stay at range, pot shot, and win via decision. He notes Song's durability but thinks O'Malley's smart game plan will prevail. James also mentions O'Malley's high fight IQ and preparation with Paul Czech.

"I just feel like Shaomi is a level above everywhere, you know? I really do."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

The host sees this as a favorable matchup for O'Malley, who faces a fellow striker in Song Yadong. He believes O'Malley's striking wizardry, footwork, and trap-setting will allow him to out-strike Yadong and potentially land a knockout. The host notes uncertainty about O'Malley's mentality after two losses but thinks this style matchup will bring back the 'Sugar Show'. He does not see enough value on Yadong to pick the upset.

O'Malley by knockout
"I think this is a good enough match up for Ali to showcase why he was so special to begin with. And I think we'll see him out strike Yodong and possibly lead to a knockout victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing O'Malley's 5-inch reach advantage and Song Yadong's slow starts. He believes O'Malley will use his footwork and volume to win a decision, though he notes Song's grappling improvements could be a factor. Paul sees O'Malley by decision as the most likely outcome.

"Yeah, the 5- in reach advantage is kind of where I lean towards Ali. I think Omali by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Sean O'Malley

The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley by decision, noting Song Yadong's durability and toughness. He believes O'Malley's reach, kicks, and power will be key, and that Yadong's facial cuts could lead to a stoppage. He predicts a 30-27 decision.

decision, 30-27
"I'm going to go with Shaun Ali by decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Zane picks O'Malley confidently, noting that Song Yadong is a plodding striker with poor footwork and range management, which plays perfectly into O'Malley's sniping style. He points out that Song has historically struggled against mobile fighters who fight off the back foot (e.g., Kyler Phillips, Cory Sandhagen). Zane also mentions that O'Malley's reach and footwork will make it hard for Song to close distance, and that O'Malley's durability is sufficient to handle Song's power.

O'Malley opened at -300, now -200; Song opened at +250, now +170. Zane thinks O'Malley could be a bigger favorite.
"I think a very wise matchup for Sean O'Malley... stylistically, it's hard for me to imagine Sean O'Malley not having mostly his way."
Submission R3 4:42 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 52 of 115 45% 141 of 215 5 of 12 41% 1 0 6:29
Sean O'Malley 0 31 of 57 54% 38 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 17 of 37 45% 48 of 72 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:54
Sean O'Malley 0 12 of 23 52% 16 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 23 of 63 36% 24 of 64 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:17
Sean O'Malley 0 19 of 33 57% 19 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 12 of 15 80% 69 of 79 3 of 4 75% 1 0 4:18
Sean O'Malley 0 0 of 1 0% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 52 of 115 45% 33 of 92 13 of 14 6 of 9 29 of 86 8 of 10 15 of 19
Sean O'Malley 31 of 57 54% 14 of 35 15 of 19 2 of 3 30 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 17 of 37 45% 10 of 30 7 of 7 0 of 0 9 of 27 3 of 3 5 of 7
Sean O'Malley 12 of 23 52% 5 of 15 6 of 7 1 of 1 11 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 23 of 63 36% 18 of 54 1 of 2 4 of 7 20 of 58 3 of 5 0 of 0
Sean O'Malley 19 of 33 57% 9 of 19 9 of 12 1 of 2 19 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 12 of 15 80% 5 of 8 5 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 1 2 of 2 10 of 12
Sean O'Malley 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo believes the first fight was a clear win for Merab, not close as some recall. He thinks Sean's camp is already making excuses by calling Merab the GOAT. He sees no significant improvements from Sean and expects the same pressure wrestling and cardio to overwhelm Sean again. He dismisses concerns about Merab's toe injury as irrelevant.

Odds at 3 to 1 feel like a gift.
"Morav Dishley is going to be the pick. I'm not worried about the toe nonsense."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili but is very hesitant. He believes Merab should win easily based on his wrestling, but worries about corrupt judges giving rounds to O'Malley if the fight is close. He notes that O'Malley was compromised in the first fight and that the UFC wants O'Malley to win. He ultimately goes with his gut that Merab gets it done by decision, but hates the price tag and suggests O'Malley plus 5.5 might be a good look.

O'Malley +5.5 mentioned as a good look
"I'll take Morab to win this fight by decision because I think he wins the fight."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Merab. He emphasizes that O'Malley's instinctual reactions in wrestling are a deep-seated issue that will be hard to overcome. Connor notes that O'Malley's go-to defense of giving up his back and handfighting works against lesser wrestlers but is suicide against Merab. He thinks O'Malley can improve but still loses.

Odds: Merab -254, O'Malley +234. Connor is surprised the line is not wider.
"I got to pick Marab still."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Dvalishvili's high pressure, high pace, and insane cardio are too much for most opponents. Even if O'Malley learned from their first matchup, he won't be able to set up his traps or striking wizardry. Dvalishvili will control the fight, grind it out, and win on the scorecards to remain champion.

"Dvalesh Philly is just too much for a lot of his opponents and not many guys are able to deal with this high pressure high pace and just insane cardio style... allowing Dvalis Philly to control fights as he always …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley to win by TKO or decision, citing adjustments and O'Malley's freshness. He believes the first fight was close and O'Malley can improve his takedown defense. He notes Merab's activity and lack of motivation, and thinks O'Malley's striking will be the difference. He predicts O'Malley wins rounds 1, 3, and 5, and possibly gets a TKO in the second or third round. He also mentions potential judging favoritism for O'Malley.

Odds comment: +260 is great value. Finish prediction: TKO in second or third round, or decision win.
"I'm feeling a Shaun Ali upset TKO finish over Morab Dealin."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Zane picks Merab Dvalishvili, noting that O'Malley's wrestling defense is fundamentally flawed against Merab's relentless pressure. He believes O'Malley will be better prepared but still expects Merab to force him into a defensive shell and win via pace and takedowns. Zane references the Umar fight as evidence that Merab can be pushed but still wins.

Odds: Merab -254, O'Malley +234. Zane is surprised the line is not wider, expecting Merab around -400.
"I got to pick Marab still."
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili · Sep 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 47 of 89 52% 49 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 82 of 164 50% 214 of 310 6 of 15 40% 0 0 10:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 14 of 28 50% 14 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 16 of 30 53% 25 of 41 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:20
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 5 of 10 50% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 18 of 38 47% 65 of 92 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:12
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 11 of 21 52% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 17 of 38 44% 25 of 46 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:52
4 Merab Dvalishvili 0 6 of 9 66% 7 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 21 of 32 65% 74 of 89 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:37
5 Merab Dvalishvili 0 11 of 21 52% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 10 of 26 38% 25 of 42 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 47 of 89 52% 22 of 48 23 of 39 2 of 2 45 of 85 0 of 1 2 of 3
Sean O'Malley 82 of 164 50% 55 of 130 4 of 6 23 of 28 29 of 85 8 of 14 45 of 65
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 14 of 28 50% 6 of 16 6 of 10 2 of 2 14 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
Sean O'Malley 16 of 30 53% 13 of 25 1 of 2 2 of 3 7 of 18 3 of 5 6 of 7
2 Merab Dvalishvili 5 of 10 50% 3 of 5 2 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1
Sean O'Malley 18 of 38 47% 14 of 33 1 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 7 0 of 0 18 of 31
3 Merab Dvalishvili 11 of 21 52% 7 of 13 4 of 8 0 of 0 11 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean O'Malley 17 of 38 44% 6 of 24 2 of 2 9 of 12 11 of 29 5 of 8 1 of 1
4 Merab Dvalishvili 6 of 9 66% 4 of 6 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1
Sean O'Malley 21 of 32 65% 20 of 31 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 13 0 of 0 15 of 19
5 Merab Dvalishvili 11 of 21 52% 2 of 8 9 of 13 0 of 0 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 1
Sean O'Malley 10 of 26 38% 2 of 17 0 of 0 8 of 9 5 of 18 0 of 1 5 of 7
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Bantamweight Title Fight: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dvalishvili (-285), O'Malley (+230)

Round 1
The main event will be refereed by Jason Herzog. O'Malley starts off with a spinning back kick to the body. Dvalishvili is able to walk O'Malley back towards the cage. Nice jab by O'Malley, who is also going to the body with punches from afar. Dvalishvili is eating jabs, having some issues with closing the distance early. O'Malley is keeping space with kicks and his jab. Dvalishvili is keeping the pressure on, forcing O'Malley to constantly move. A right hand for Dvalishvili lands, and the champion is then able to get a takedown. O'Malley is quick to get back up, although he grabs the fence. Dvalishvili stays clinched and leans a knee. O'Malley lands his own knee, but gets off-balance and slips. Dvalishvili lands a nice left hook before going for a double-leg takedown. O'Malley does a good job defending, but Dvalishvili is able to pick him up anyhow. Dvalishvili is in full guard. Dvalishvili slips in an elbow and several short hammerfists.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili

Round 2
O'Malley takes the center of the cage. Dvalishvili lands a body kick, while O'Malley misses a spinning back kick. A nice right hand to the body for "Suga." Dvalishvili counters O'Malley with two stinging right hands. O'Malley answers back with a strong right hand of his own. Dvalishvili is throwing kicks to the body. O'Malley's movement is much better this round. O'Malley lands a nice jab. Dvalishvili goes for a takedown, but O'Malley escapes from the cage. The round hits the halfway mark. O'Malley jabs to the body. Dvalishvili goes for another takedown, but O'Malley shucks him off and lands a nice left hand. Much better round for the challenger. Dvalishvili lands a right hand and goes for a takedown, but eats a left hand while entering. O'Malley is able to stay upright and hits the champ with a straight right as he exits. A big right hand for Dvalishvili, who keeps the pressure on as the round ends. Much closer round.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili

Round 3
15 minutes to go. Dvalishvili opens with an overhand right and rushes the challenger. O'Malley lands a solid counter, but Dvalishvili keeps the pressure on and dumps "Suga" to the ground. Dvalishvili is in guard. O'Malley is too happy to sit in guard and is just allowing Dvalishvili to be in control. Dvalishvili is landing shots to the body and slips an elbow in. A lot of time is getting eaten up. Dvalishvili advances into half guard. O'Malley gives up his back in order to get to his feet. Dvalishvili lands a slick knee to the head. Dvalishvili puts O'Malley immediately back down after he gets back to his feet. The fight is fully in Dvalishvili's control. Dvalishvili is in half guard and landing punches with 30 seconds left. Dvalishvili scrambles well into north-south position and is able to lock in a modified guillotine choke. This looks tight, and O'Malley taps. It's over, and Dvalishvili retains with his second-ever submission win.

The Official Result
Merab Dvalishvili def. Sean O'Malley via Submission (Modified Guillotine Choke); R3, 4:42.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Angelo picks Sean O'Malley but does not bet. He notes O'Malley has incredible accuracy and power, and only needs one shot to finish, while Merab has a suspect chin and a cut over his eye plus possible staph infection that could affect his cardio. However, he acknowledges that a healthy Merab could shoot 550 takedowns and win a boring decision. He is on O'Malley's side but too much of a coward to bet, though he mentions Jacob has bet on O'Malley.

No bet; mentions Jacob has bet on O'Malley.
"I am I'm on the Shaun Ali side no bet though I'm too much of a coward to actually bet on that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Big Brady picks O'Malley, emphasizing damage over control. He notes Dvalishvili's game is takedown attempts with little damage, while O'Malley has power and finishing ability. He predicts O'Malley will land big shots and possibly knock out Dvalishvili in the second round, though a damage-based decision is also possible.

second round knockout
"I'm taking Al I think he probably I'll say knockout for a Ali here... I'll say in the second round here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (fight day)
Merab Dvalishvili

Cody believes Merab's wrestling and cardio will be too much for O'Malley, especially given O'Malley's inactivity and injury concerns. He notes that O'Malley's takedown defense hasn't improved enough and that Merab can make the fight look easier by pushing the pace early. He sees a unanimous decision win for Merab.

"I got Morab likely by unanimous decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Daniel Vreeland picks Sean O'Malley, emphasizing that Merab takes a shot in almost every fight and O'Malley will land that one. He notes Merab's top control is not great and people get back up, differentiating him from Aljamain Sterling. He believes O'Malley is getting an easier fight than against Sterling because Merab is more hitable and susceptible to being countered.

O'Malley by KO
"I'm gonna take Shan Ali too um I I mean obviously I liked it better when he was an underdog but the bottom line for me here is just morab takes a shot in almost every single fight he's in"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Daniel picks Sean O'Malley to win, citing O'Malley's superior striking accuracy, footwork, and ability to fight going backwards. He believes O'Malley's teep kicks and straight shots will counter Merab's looping punches and pressure. Daniel also notes O'Malley's brown belt under Cesar Gracie and dismisses cardio concerns, but acknowledges Merab's takedown volume could be a factor if he closes distance.

O'Malley by TKO in round 3
"I'm going with sugar Sean O'Malley man I mean I just don't know why I'm going with sugar Sean but I have a feeling that he's gonna get it done you know via knockout"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Jeff Fox picks Sean O'Malley because he is a striker with a big reach advantage and has cleared every hurdle. He acknowledges Merab could take him down and grind out a win, but believes O'Malley can piece him up on the feet and has shown solid grappling.

"I'm going with the striker I'll go with all Mali he's know he's surprised that I think we take you know his clown person outside the cage um we let it maybe or some people let it um that it …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jun 2, 2025 (fight day)
Sean O'Malley

Lucrative James believes the odds are slightly off, with Merab as a -305 favorite. He notes that Sean O'Malley has more margin for improvement after a close first fight where he hurt Merab in the fifth round. He sees value in O'Malley at +255 and plans to bet him, though he acknowledges Merab's wrestling and cardio make him the likely winner. He emphasizes betting value over picking the winner.

"I'm calling Shaun Ali as the clear side. Shauna Ali is the clear bet inside and plus 255 is good to me."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Dvalishvili has shown great durability and will stick on O'Malley like white on rice, not giving him the space to generate knockout power. Expects Dvalishvili to put O'Malley through the ringer, possibly approaching 50 takedown attempts, and win on the scorecards.

"I have to go with the machine who has shown great durability throughout his career and I expect him to stick on Ali like white on rice so that he doesn't give him the space required from Ali to generate …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (fight day)
Merab Dvalishvili

Paul thinks Merab's game plan is clear and that O'Malley's only chance is a puncher's chance. He points out that O'Malley hasn't fought since the first loss and has been nursing injuries, while Merab has been active and improving. He expects Merab to control the fight with wrestling and win a decision.

"I got Morab likely by unanimous decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley by TKO in the first or second round. He notes Merab has a staph infection and a cut over his eye, which could be exploited. He believes O'Malley's footwork and takedown defense will neutralize Merab's wrestling, and that O'Malley's upward knees and left hook will be key. He also suggests the UFC may favor O'Malley and that an early stoppage is possible if Merab gets hurt.

O'Malley by TKO in first or second round; mentions staph infection and cut as factors
"I'm going to go Sha Al by TKO in the first or second round putting morab away and I'm going to tell you this as well on top of the staff infection the cut over his eye that's definitely a …"
WIN vs Marlon Vera
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 50–44) R5 5:00 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean O'Malley 0 230 of 356 64% 232 of 358 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Marlon Vera 0 89 of 241 36% 89 of 241 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean O'Malley 0 27 of 36 75% 27 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 9 of 21 42% 9 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Sean O'Malley 0 51 of 83 61% 51 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 16 of 46 34% 16 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sean O'Malley 0 35 of 58 60% 35 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Marlon Vera 0 17 of 54 31% 17 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Sean O'Malley 0 56 of 84 66% 57 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 26 of 73 35% 26 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Sean O'Malley 0 61 of 95 64% 62 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 21 of 47 44% 21 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean O'Malley 230 of 356 64% 150 of 268 61 of 68 19 of 20 227 of 352 3 of 4 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 89 of 241 36% 41 of 165 14 of 35 34 of 41 85 of 235 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean O'Malley 27 of 36 75% 7 of 14 10 of 12 10 of 10 27 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 9 of 21 42% 1 of 7 1 of 5 7 of 9 9 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sean O'Malley 51 of 83 61% 36 of 66 11 of 12 4 of 5 51 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 16 of 46 34% 7 of 29 0 of 5 9 of 12 16 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sean O'Malley 35 of 58 60% 21 of 43 13 of 14 1 of 1 35 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 17 of 54 31% 7 of 39 4 of 8 6 of 7 17 of 53 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Sean O'Malley 56 of 84 66% 42 of 70 11 of 11 3 of 3 56 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 26 of 73 35% 15 of 56 5 of 11 6 of 6 26 of 72 0 of 1 0 of 0
5 Sean O'Malley 61 of 95 64% 44 of 75 16 of 19 1 of 1 58 of 91 3 of 4 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 21 of 47 44% 11 of 34 4 of 6 6 of 7 17 of 43 4 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Angelo picks Marlon Vera as a dog, noting that underdogs have won five of seven main events in 2024. He thinks Vera's durability and power will be key, as O'Malley is a counter striker who may not engage. He also mentions the Miami crowd may favor Vera. He suggests betting the over on rounds.

Over on rounds (hoping for 3.5 round line) is the best play.
"I am going to pick the dog I opened up this whole video talking about five of the seven Main Event dogs won this year"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Big Brady picks Sean O'Malley to win by decision, but is not feeling great about it. He notes that O'Malley is the better striker with more volume and accuracy, but worries about the later rounds as O'Malley has never been past three rounds. He believes Vera needs a knockout to win, and O'Malley should do enough to win a decision.

win by decision
"I'm taking Al here by decision I I I don't feel great about it to be honest"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Cody believes O'Malley has improved significantly since the first fight, especially in managing space and distance. He thinks O'Malley will win on volume, similar to the Chris Moutinho fight, but acknowledges that Vera is durable and could come on late. He respects Vera but sticks with O'Malley as the pick, though he won't bet the moneyline.

Vera round 4 (+2200), Vera round 5 (+3000)
"I'm still picking om Ali I think he wins on volume I think it's going to be relatively close and probably closer than the money line suggest"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Daniel Vreeland picks Sean O'Malley, emphasizing that O'Malley has improved his footwork and ability to cut angles. He notes that O'Malley's cerebral approach allows him to set traps, as he did against Aljamain Sterling. Vreeland argues that Vera fights by downloading information and then exploding, but O'Malley controls what Vera sees. He believes Vera's habit of giving up early rounds is dangerous against a finisher like O'Malley. Vreeland concludes that O'Malley is the better striker, longer, more explosive, and younger.

"Shaan Ali is the Chinese government he decides what you download."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Daniel leans towards O'Malley to defend his belt, but he has significant concerns about O'Malley's durability and cardio. He notes that O'Malley will likely light up Vera early, but worries that O'Malley may gas out from beating on Vera, allowing Vera to take over late. Daniel references O'Malley's fatigue in the second round against Yan and Vera's proven durability and finishing ability. He also mentions that Vera's camp issues don't sway him. Ultimately, he picks O'Malley but calls it a 'dog or pass' betting situation.

"I'm leaning towards sha Ali but from a betting perspective right now plus 240 plus 250 I mean listen man like I said if Cheeto can take this ass whooping up front make it a dirty fight like who knows"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Jeff Fox picks Sean O'Malley, noting that Vera is essentially the same fighter as in their first fight while O'Malley has improved significantly. He highlights O'Malley's improved footwork and ability to cut angles, as seen in the Aljamain Sterling fight. Fox also praises O'Malley's cerebral game, setting traps and controlling what his opponent sees. He believes Vera gives up early rounds and then has to press, which plays into O'Malley's hands. Fox is confident that O'Malley's striking, length, and youth will lead to a win.

Fox picks under 4.5 rounds at +125, believing the fight ends inside the distance.
"I think Ali takes care of Vera especially with Vera giving up rounds as he will."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

O'Malley is the better technical striker with great fight IQ and trap-setting ability. He showed discipline and patience in his win over Sterling. However, Vera has never been knocked down in the UFC and is a slow starter who thrives in five-round fights. O'Malley may not get the early knockout, and if Vera finds his groove late, it could be competitive. I still pick O'Malley to win by decision, as his striking wizardry should allow him to outwork Vera over 25 minutes. I am passing on betting this fight due to the -300 line and Vera's durability.

O'Malley by decision, possible live bet on Vera if O'Malley doesn't finish early
"my prediction is still Shan I believe his Wizardry in the Striking I believe his game planning and ability to execute it will allow him to put together a good enough game plan to outwork Marlin ver who gets caught …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Paul highlights Vera's slow-starting nature but five-round cardio and durability. He notes that O'Malley has not been tested in late rounds and that Vera's pressure and toughness will allow him to take over in rounds 3-5. He also points to a trend of underdogs winning main events recently and Vera's life-changing motivation.

Vera round 4 (+2200), Vera round 5 (+3000)
"I'll take that Underdog in the main event looking at om Ali as well not to discredit him but prior to that Marlin Vera fight he had effectively beaten terion wear and um Andre Suk matath Jose konz and Eddie …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley, predicting a boring fight where O'Malley uses low kicks and range to outpoint Vera. He argues O'Malley's feints are more dangerous because he can actually land the strikes he feints. He believes Vera will struggle to land his power shots and O'Malley will win a clear decision, possibly with a robbery if close. He notes O'Malley's underrated chin and better movement in the larger cage.

decision
"I think om Al is going to be able to pick him at range and I think we're going to see Maron Vera stink up the performance"
TKO (punches) R2 0:51 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean O'Malley 0 17 of 35 48% 24 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:34
Aljamain Sterling 1 25 of 35 71% 26 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean O'Malley 0 13 of 26 50% 20 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:21
Aljamain Sterling 0 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Sean O'Malley 0 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Aljamain Sterling 1 17 of 21 80% 18 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean O'Malley 17 of 35 48% 3 of 12 3 of 10 11 of 13 16 of 33 1 of 2 0 of 0
Aljamain Sterling 25 of 35 71% 18 of 25 6 of 9 1 of 1 10 of 16 1 of 1 14 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean O'Malley 13 of 26 50% 0 of 5 2 of 8 11 of 13 13 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aljamain Sterling 8 of 14 57% 3 of 6 4 of 7 1 of 1 7 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Sean O'Malley 4 of 9 44% 3 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 0
Aljamain Sterling 17 of 21 80% 15 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 14 of 18
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Bantamweight Title Fight: Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O'Malley
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sterling (-258), O’Malley (+210)

Round 1
In the main attraction inside of the
Boston Garden
FleetCenter
TD Banknorth Garden
TD Garden, two men with no particular affinity to Beantown will collide for bantamweight gold. In the truest sense of the overused phrase, this is a pure grappler vs. striker affair, one that pits defending champ Sterling (23-3, 15-3 UFC) against the exceptionally accurate O’Malley (16-1, 1 NC; 8-1, 1 NC UFC). Should Sterling get his hand raised, he will set the record for the most consecutive defenses in the division’s history, while O’Malley can become the second champion to make his way to the promotion from Dana White’s Contender Series – Jamahal Hill was the first. There is nothing more that needs to be said from these two or about these two, and referee Marc Goddard brings the two together to make the title fight official. The staredown lasts from the moment Bruce Buffer starts speaking through to part of the introductions, and they are intense. They do touch gloves, and it’s on with the show. When they come together, Sterling is quick to swat O’Malley’s hands down. Sterling leaps forward with front kicks and side kicks, and he reaches out with long jabs while O’Malley stays out of reach. Sterling lands a solid leg kick as he races after O’Malley, and O’Malley responds with a front kick. Sterling keeps busy with kicks to any target, and O’Malley jabs to the body. O’Malley pushes the pace and draws a reaction out of his opponent, and the crowd rains down a profane chant against the champion. Sterling puts his foot on the gas, and he leans back from a long left hand that comes at his chin. The two take turns leading the dance, but O’Malley’s work rate is quite low through the first half of the round. O’Malley feints and fakes his way in, and he has to block a body kick that gets past his guard. Sterling chips away at the lead leg, and he absorbs a front kick on the ribs. Sterling peppers O’Malley with three low kicks before O’Malley gives him a stomping kick back to his knee. Sterling’s inside calf kicks force a stance switch early, and O’Malley lunges forward but does not fire off anything. Sterling reacts significantly when O’Malley is about to strike, and he picks at O’Malley’s leg while strafing to the side. O’Malley drops his hands to taunt Sterling into coming at him, and Sterling keeps ripping leg kicks and little else. Sterling blazes past his foe with a kick, and O’Malley settles down and fires off a spinning back kick that backs him off. Sterling shoots in for a single, and he jams O’Malley up against the fence while holding his foe’s leg in the air. Sterling lands several short punches, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sterling

Round 2
The second round begins with the two rushing towards one another, and O’Malley lashes out with a kick that he misses and falls over after throwing. Sterling comes at him and pursues a takedown, and O’Malley backs himself against the wall to stay up. O’Malley shuts it down and drops back to line up a right hand, and Sterling misses with a punch and gets cracked right on the chin. Sterling crashes down to the ground on his face, and he turns to his side in an effort to get his wits about him. O’Malley follows him down and clubs him with hammerfists, and Sterling is moving but still taking damage. O’Malley continues his bombardment of punches, and Goddard is closely watching over things. Sterling turns over and looks to reach out with his left arm for a potential takedown, and Goddard waves the fight off. Some may consider it an early stoppage, given how Sterling was still moving and defending himself. Nevertheless, the fight is over and O’Malley is now the UFC’s bantamweight champion, and he is the second fighter off the Contender Series to claim a UFC strap. The landscape of the 135-pound weight class has now changed drastically, and a wealth of options present themselves for O’Malley first defense and upcoming title reign. Marlon Vera, Merab Dvalishvili, Umar Nurmagomedov and a few others are right in contention, and it will be interesting to see how it turns out. In his post-fight interview, O’Malley mentions that he would be up for his first defense against Vera this December, and Vera immediately responded on social media with a post of dollar signs and bags of cash. If that is the fight the UFC makes for its Dec. 16 pay-per-view card, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Sean O’Malley def. Aljamain Sterling R2 0:51 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

Angelo picks Aljamain Sterling, expecting his wrestling to take over as Sean O'Malley slows down in the later rounds. He notes that O'Malley gassed in a three-round fight and this is five rounds. He thinks Sterling could win by submission but acknowledges O'Malley's toughness and striking threat. He believes Sterling's range management and takedowns will be the difference.

"Al Jermaine Sterling is going to start to take over... I think Al Jermaine's gonna win this I think he could potentially win by submission."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Big Brady picks Sean O'Malley to win by fourth-round knockout, but admits he's terrified of Sterling's early grappling. He believes O'Malley can stuff takedowns and make Sterling work, causing Sterling to slow down. Brady notes O'Malley's striking advantage and power, and thinks if O'Malley survives the first few rounds, he can finish Sterling late.

win by KO, round 4
"I think I'm gonna pick Sean O'Malley here... fourth round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

Cody believes Sterling's grappling and wrestling are a notch above O'Malley's, and that Sterling will take O'Malley down, control him, and win rounds. He notes that O'Malley's camp lacks confidence, and that the line is inflated due to O'Malley's popularity. He expects Sterling to win by decision or submission, and likes the value at -260.

over 4.5 rounds at +150; Sterling over 3 takedowns; fight time over 18.5 minutes
"I like algema Sterling and I really like this line now who likes a minus 260 line Pat like it's still pretty deep but I think 100 once baked into it is that hate Factor people just don't like Al …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

Daniel Levi leans toward Aljamain Sterling, acknowledging that Sterling should be favored but questioning whether the -255 price is warranted. He notes that Sterling has a clear path to victory if O'Malley has no answer when his back is taken, but if O'Malley can stretch the fight out, all bets are off. Levi mentions that Sterling's cardio fades in championship rounds due to massive weight cuts, which could open a late path for O'Malley. He also highlights that O'Malley's confidence and training with Taki Mendez might help him survive early grappling exchanges. Ultimately, Levi picks Sterling but is not fully confident, as he is intrigued by O'Malley's potential to survive and capitalize late.

Sterling minus 255 is a question; O'Malley plus 215; if O'Malley can stretch it out, all bets are off
"I do have to lean towards aljo and I'm but I am rooting just as a fan for O'Malley"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Lucrative James picks Sean O'Malley, citing his distance management, footwork, and underrated jiu-jitsu. He believes Sterling's frequent weight cuts and recent activity may affect his performance. He sees value on O'Malley's moneyline and thinks O'Malley could get a knockout or win rounds on damage.

"I like Sean O'Malley for some value on this one I honestly do"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

Sterling has a clear grappling advantage and should be able to take O'Malley down and control him. O'Malley's takedown defense has been a weakness, and Sterling's pressure and back-taking ability will be key. Sterling will likely win a decision rather than chase a finish, conserving energy. The decision prop is the best play.

Sterling by decision
"give me algeman Sterling and still by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

The MMA Guru picks Aljamain Sterling over Sean O'Malley. He believes Sterling's grappling will be the difference, as O'Malley will be worried about takedowns. He notes Sterling's tricky movement and ability to pressure O'Malley backwards. He predicts Sterling will take O'Malley down early, get his back, and win by TKO via ground and pound in round 1 or 2. He thinks Sterling will prove a point.

TKO by ground and pound from back mount in round 1 or 2
"I think he's going to win impressively and I think he's going to beat up O'Malley and maybe finish him by TKO to ground and pound from the back mount in round one or round two"
WIN vs Petr Yan
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean O'Malley 0 58 of 96 60% 97 of 139 6 of 13 46% 0 0 5:44
Petr Yan 0 84 of 163 51% 91 of 171 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean O'Malley 0 19 of 31 61% 28 of 41 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:10
Petr Yan 0 23 of 55 41% 23 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Sean O'Malley 0 24 of 39 61% 45 of 62 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:42
Petr Yan 0 21 of 37 56% 22 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sean O'Malley 0 15 of 26 57% 24 of 36 2 of 7 28% 0 0 1:52
Petr Yan 0 40 of 71 56% 46 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean O'Malley 58 of 96 60% 24 of 57 13 of 18 21 of 21 47 of 81 5 of 6 6 of 9
Petr Yan 84 of 163 51% 63 of 132 6 of 14 15 of 17 80 of 158 4 of 4 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean O'Malley 19 of 31 61% 5 of 15 3 of 5 11 of 11 17 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Petr Yan 23 of 55 41% 13 of 37 3 of 9 7 of 9 23 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sean O'Malley 24 of 39 61% 12 of 25 7 of 9 5 of 5 17 of 29 2 of 3 5 of 7
Petr Yan 21 of 37 56% 17 of 32 1 of 2 3 of 3 21 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Sean O'Malley 15 of 26 57% 7 of 17 3 of 4 5 of 5 13 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 2
Petr Yan 40 of 71 56% 33 of 63 2 of 3 5 of 5 36 of 67 4 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sean O'Malley vs. Petr Yan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Yan (-265), O’Malley (+225)

Round 1
Yan and O’Malley launch into action at the prompting of referee Jason Herzog. Yan is in orthodox stance; O’Mally southpaw. Yan stalks forward as O’Malley slides around the outside of the cage. Yan switches stances and flicks out his right jab, then switches back. Herzog shouts a warning to O’Malley to watch his extended fingers. Yan lands a right low kick and eats a hard right hand counter. O’Malley connects with a right low kick. Halfway through the round, Yan changes levels for a double-leg near the fence. O’Malley backs into the cage, trying to keep the Russian from taking his back. Yan gives up on the takedown and they return to the center. Yan lands a series of three left hands upstairs, then drops for another takedown. This time, he hoists the taller man and dumps him to the canvas. With a minute left, Yan is in O’Malley’s guard. O’Malley goes to stand and eats some punches on the way up, but they return to their feet. O’Malley shoots a takedown at the 10-second clapper, briefly takes Yan’s back in the ensuing scramble, but they separate before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Yan
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Yan

Round 2
Yan lands an outside low kick, then one to the inside of O’Malley’s lead leg. O’Malley comes back with a huge uppercut that has Yan hurt badly. Yan staggers away as O’Malley gives chase, landing more punches. Yan turns the tables with a massive punch of his own and now O’Malley is rocked. Yan ducks under and drags O’Malley to the mat. Yan is in O’Malley’s guard as O’Malley squirms and looks to escape. O’Malley pops up and Yan drives him to the fence. O’Malley grounds himself with a hand on the canvas to forestall knees to the head. They separate and a moment later, Yan pushes O’Malley back to the floor with a nice inside trip. O’Malley pops right back up. Under two minutes to go and Yan is matching O’Malley down. O’Malley pushes him back with a kick up the middle, and slips the counter punch. Yan flicks a high kick upstairs, then comes in behind it for a takedown. Yan is in O’Malley’s guard at the base of the fence with 45 seconds left in the round. Yan postures up and lands a couple of punches. The round expires.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Yan
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Yan

Round 3
Yan shoots for a takedown right away, but O’Malley defends well and stands him back up. O’Malley flicks out a couple of jabs. Yan lands a low kick. Yan swarms forward with hooks, then shoves O’Malley to the cage. O’Malley pushes him back off, and lands an intercepting knee that cuts Yan badly. Yan is bleeding right away. Yan comes up short with a pair of punches, then lands a one-two. O’Malley throws a high kick that glances. Yan shoots a fast takedown from way outside, but drives O’Malley to the fence, and gets him to the ground. Yan takes O’Malley’s back as they stand. O’Malley escapes and they separate. There’s 90 seconds left as they reset in the middle. O’Malley lands a pair of jabs to Yan’s bloodied right eye. Yan drags O’Malley to the ground late in the round, and is landing punches from guard at the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Yan (30-27 Yan)
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Yan (30-27 Yan)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley (29-28 Yan)

The Official Result
Sean O’Malley def. Petr Yan via Split Decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Angelo picks Petr Yan confidently, calling him a phenomenal striker with fantastic takedown defense and surprising takedown offense. He notes Yan's power, accuracy, and grappling, and believes O'Malley will have trouble finding a rhythm. He acknowledges Yan's tendency to take the first round off but still expects a one-sided fight.

"pyoto's the pick I am very very confident that this is going to be a one-sided fight there are levels to this"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Yan to win by TKO in the second round. He notes Yan's power (nearly 10 knockdowns in the UFC) and ability to mix in takedowns. O'Malley has faced mostly strikers and hasn't been tested on the ground; Yan can pressure him and potentially finish on top. He believes Yan's experience against elite strikers like Aldo and Sandhagen gives him a clear edge.

second round TKO
"I actually think Peter yon finishes O'Malley I think he finished his second round at TKO gets on top and eventually finishes O'Malley in that second or third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Cody is confident in Yan, noting that Yan is an underrated wrestler who can take O'Malley down and control him. He points out O'Malley's weaknesses against pressure and wrestlers, referencing the Marlon Vera fight. Cody believes Yan's experience and ability to figure out opponents as the fight goes on will be key. He thinks Yan can win by decision or inside the distance, and that O'Malley's popularity is inflating his odds.

Yan by submission round 1-2-3 (small bet at 100-1 each)
"I gotta go with Peter Young to get the job done does he win by decision or does he win inside the distance I'm leaning towards inside the distance"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Connor is confident Yan will win, arguing that Yan's layered striking and ability to adapt will overwhelm O'Malley. He notes that O'Malley's offense is based on feints and theoretical threats, while Yan has multiple modes of attack and will take easy targets like leg kicks. He also points out that Yan can pressure O'Malley to the fence and take him down, as he did against Sandhagen.

"Logically, I have to pick Petr Yan. You would be insane to pick Sean O'Malley, honestly."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Daniel Levi picks Petr Yan to win, citing Yan's proven chin and ability to both give and take damage. He questions O'Malley's durability, noting that while O'Malley can strike well, it's unknown how he handles getting hit by a powerful puncher like Yan. Levi thinks Yan will pressure O'Malley and make him fight, and that Yan's experience against tough opponents gives him the edge. He also mentions that Yan may start slow but will win rounds as the fight progresses. Levi does not bet this fight but is confident in Yan.

"I think peota yen is going to get right in the face of Sean O'Malley he's going to make Sean O'Malley fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Yan has a slow-starting style but excels in championship rounds. He has wrestling upside that could exploit O'Malley's weakness on the ground. O'Malley may be competitive early with kicks, but Yan's takedowns and top control should secure rounds. Yan by decision at -110 is the pick, and if the line drops to -250, the moneyline becomes attractive.

Yan by decision at -110
"I'm going to go parody on by decision on minus 110"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Paul is confident in Yan, citing that Yan is the better fighter and that O'Malley's action is due to his brand. He worries about Yan giving up round one but thinks Yan will figure out O'Malley and win. Paul notes Yan's wrestling and takedowns as a path to victory, and mentions he took a small bet on Yan by submission at long odds. He believes Yan's experience and skill gap will show.

Yan by submission (small bet at 100-1 each round)
"Peter Yawn is the pick minus 265 I don't even think it's that bad I just worry that he gives up round one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Petr Yan

The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan over Sean O'Malley by third-round TKO. He believes Yan's pressure, combinations, and ability to crowd O'Malley will be too much. He notes O'Malley's struggles against volume strikers and his tendency to spin, which Yan can exploit. He predicts O'Malley wins the first round but gets hurt in the second and finished in the third.

third round TKO
"I'm going to be going with pyotian over Sean O'Malley"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Zane picks Yan, emphasizing that Yan's pressure and ability to take easy targets will expose O'Malley's defensive flaws. He compares O'Malley to Darren Till, noting that both rely on a coiled-spring style that elite fighters eventually figure out. He believes Yan will force O'Malley into uncomfortable positions and break him down over time.

"I think Yan can just kind of run at Sean O'Malley and... he can essentially do exactly what he did to Cory Sandhagen and start even faster."
LOSS vs Pedro Munhoz
No Contest (accidental eye poke) R2 3:09 · UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Jul 02, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Pedro Munhoz 0 26 of 41 63% 26 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 25 of 47 53% 25 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Pedro Munhoz 0 19 of 25 76% 19 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 15 of 26 57% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Pedro Munhoz 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 10 of 21 47% 10 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Pedro Munhoz 26 of 41 63% 0 of 9 0 of 2 26 of 30 26 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean O'Malley 25 of 47 53% 14 of 30 8 of 14 3 of 3 25 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Pedro Munhoz 19 of 25 76% 0 of 3 0 of 0 19 of 22 19 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean O'Malley 15 of 26 57% 7 of 13 5 of 10 3 of 3 15 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Pedro Munhoz 7 of 16 43% 0 of 6 0 of 2 7 of 8 7 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean O'Malley 10 of 21 47% 7 of 17 3 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Pedro Munhoz vs. Sean O'Malley
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: O’Malley (-300), Munhoz (+250)

Round 1
Kicking off the main card is another fight that could have served as the main event of a Fight Night offering recently, as established veteran Munhoz (19-7, 1 NC; 9-7, 1 NC UFC) looks to shut down the “Sugar Show” of O’Malley (15-1, 7-1 UFC) at bantamweight. Feet and fists are sure to fly fervently, but not before referee Jason Herzog checks them in. The gloves are expectedly not touched given O’Malley’s chatter ahead of the fight, and they land leg kicks at the same time to start things off. O’Malley keeps a wide berth from afar, with a distance where even he cannot land with his significant reach advantage. They are cautious to engage, and O’Malley tosses out a few front kicks while Munhoz goes to the calf repeatedly. O’Malley loads up on an overhand right, and he checks a calf kick that zooms at him. Munhoz checks one in response, and he sweeps low with his rear leg. O’Malley pierces the guard with a jab, and Munhoz circles away and lands a solid leg kick as O’Malley switches stances. The American pokes out a few jabs but little else, and he leaps back as the low kick comes towards him. “Sugar Sean” spins with a back kick, and Munhoz is out of harm’s way in time. Munhoz hammers the leg multiples times, and O’Malley steps forward with a front kick and a straight right hand down the pipe. O’Malley slaps a front kick out, and it bangs into the cup. Herzog spots it immediately, and the crowd boos him despite that the foul lands cleanly. Munhoz takes less than a minute to get back to action, and O’Malley comes out throwing hands. Munhoz answers him with a barrage of leg kicks from both legs, and he appears fired up and walking O’Malley down. They continue to pepper the lead legs of one another with kicks, and Munhoz fires off a high kick that gets blocked in time. Munhoz bears down on him with a chopping kick, and they add up as O’Malley tries to push him back with jabs. The pink-haired fighter spin with a back kick to the midsection, and Munhoz answers him as he plants down with a thudding kick. Munhoz whiffs on a spin kick, and O’Malley mocks him with a pirouette as the crowd guffaws. The tentative round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley

Round 2
The second frame opens as Munhoz comes out running forward, and he switches stances every single time O’Malley does to mirror his stance and allow him to have effective leg kicks come out. Munhoz misses on a head kick, and a front kick as well as he pulls his leg back and lands awkwardly. O’Malley pokes out a few jabs to little effect, and Munhoz retreats and gets popped with a one-two. O’Malley spins with a wheel kick that just brushes past Munhoz’ hair, and one inch to the right could have spelled problems for the Brazilian. Munhoz kicks the midsection on his way in, and he swipes low with a kick. O’Malley absorbs a kick with an audible thud, and he loads up with a right hand that collides with the guard. O’Malley dings Munhoz with a straight right, and the Brazilian loads up on a low kick in response. Practically all of the strikes landed by “The Young Punisher” are leg kicks, and they are rarely more than single strikes. They continue to connect, and O’Malley, irritated from them, pops out a jab. Munhoz lands a punch, and O’Malley reaches out with his fingers outstretched to jab Munhoz in the eye. Munhoz turns away and tries to clear his vision. Herzog allows him to recover and calls in a doctor to give him more time, Munhoz seems to tell the doctor he cannot see out of his right eye. The doctor helps him wipe his eye, and Munhoz claims that all he sees is black from one eye. With that answer, Herzog and the physician properly call the fight off, as Munhoz cannot continue. This poke ruled an unintentional foul, it will go down as a no contest. This is an unfortunate ending to a competitive and intriguing bout, and hopefully the promotion can run it back in the near future.

The Official Result
Sean O’Malley vs. Pedro Munhoz is ruled a No Contest (Accidental Eye Poke) R2 3:09
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Angelo picks Sean O'Malley, citing his accuracy and athletic striking. He believes Munhoz's volume and forward pressure will work against him as O'Malley sticks and moves. He expresses frustration with the matchup, feeling Munhoz is being fed to a rising star, but still sees O'Malley winning a decision.

"I think sean o'malley gets this done i i just hate it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Big Brady is confident in Sean O'Malley, citing his size, speed, and striking advantage. He notes Munhoz is hittable and absorbs many strikes, but worries about O'Malley's leg kicks and durability. He predicts O'Malley wins by decision, as Munhoz has never been knocked out.

O'Malley by decision
"i like o'malley to win i do have my concerns though in terms of laying like minus 300 just about on this guy but um i think he should win this fight and win it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Cody acknowledges Munhoz's path to victory via leg kicks and pressure, but notes Munhoz has declined and lacks wrestling. He thinks O'Malley's reach and speed will be decisive, and that Munhoz hasn't landed a takedown since 2018. He picks O'Malley as the rightful favorite.

"I think he's the rightful favorite and if Munoz just had a shred of wrestling I'd be all over this plus 275 but I'm not gonna get there"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 30, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Daniel Levi is confident in Sean O'Malley, having bet 5 units to win 2 at -250. He believes O'Malley's height, reach, volume, and stance switching will be too much for Munhoz, who is there to be hit and may be on the decline. Levi dismisses the leg kick narrative, noting that O'Malley can mitigate it by fighting southpaw. He respects Munhoz's guillotine and calf kicks but thinks O'Malley's evolution and youth give him the edge.

Bet 5 units to win 2 at -250; got best of the line.
"i bet sean o'malley at -250 to win two units... i think it's going to be sean o'malley's night saturday"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 1, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Sean O'Malley

O'Malley is faster and more technical, but Munhoz has never been knocked out and has good leg kicks. O'Malley should win by decision, staying on the outside and avoiding leg kicks. The host is not confident in a finish and prefers the decision prop.

O'Malley by decision +150; over 2.5 rounds
"i was leaning the o'malley by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Paul agrees with Cody that O'Malley's reach advantage and volume will be key. He notes Munhoz's lack of wrestling makes it hard to back him at +275. He picks O'Malley to win.

"I think he's the rightful favorite"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley, citing his elusiveness, range advantage (7-inch reach), and ability to slow down pressure fighters. He believes Pedro Munhoz has declined and that O'Malley's front kicks and leg kicks will be key. He predicts O'Malley will pick Munhoz apart and win a decision, noting Munhoz's lack of offensive wrestling.

"i'm going to go sean o'malley"
Kris Moutinho - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Feb 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cristian Quiñonez 0 38 of 61 62% 54 of 80 7 of 10 70% 2 0 7:06
Kris Moutinho 0 28 of 71 39% 32 of 75 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cristian Quiñonez 0 23 of 37 62% 24 of 40 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:01
Kris Moutinho 0 16 of 39 41% 16 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Cristian Quiñonez 0 8 of 11 72% 20 of 23 4 of 5 80% 2 0 4:05
Kris Moutinho 0 7 of 14 50% 7 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
3 Cristian Quiñonez 0 7 of 13 53% 10 of 17 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:00
Kris Moutinho 0 5 of 18 27% 9 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cristian Quiñonez 38 of 61 62% 34 of 53 4 of 8 0 of 0 35 of 58 0 of 0 3 of 3
Kris Moutinho 28 of 71 39% 13 of 51 7 of 11 8 of 9 28 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cristian Quiñonez 23 of 37 62% 20 of 30 3 of 7 0 of 0 23 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kris Moutinho 16 of 39 41% 6 of 27 3 of 4 7 of 8 16 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Cristian Quiñonez 8 of 11 72% 7 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kris Moutinho 7 of 14 50% 3 of 7 3 of 6 1 of 1 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Cristian Quiñonez 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 3 of 3
Kris Moutinho 5 of 18 27% 4 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Cristian Quiñonez

Angelo picks Cristian Quiñonez because Kris Moutinho is a 'human punching bag' who has absorbed 283 strikes and been knocked out three times in the UFC. He acknowledges Quiñonez is not great either, but at least he has won in the UFC. He warns against betting at -650 odds, calling it not worth it.

Advises to stay away from the -650 line, says it's not worth it.
"I have to pick Christian because at least he could win in the UFC. ... Minus 650, just leave that the hell alone."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Cristian Quiñonez

Big Brady picks Cristian Quiñonez, calling Kris Moutinho a non-UFC-level fighter with terrible striking defense (29%). He notes Moutinho has been knocked out five times and finished in all losses. Brady believes Quiñonez will hit Moutinho hard and knock him out, predicting a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"Give me Quonz here to win this fight and I think he's probably going to knock out Chris Motinho in the in the first or second round. Give me Christian Quanz to win. I'll say he wins by first round …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kris Moutinho

Cody also fades Quiñonez at -700, pointing out his inactivity and lack of recent wins. He sees Moutinho as a live dog if he can push the pace and exploit Quiñonez's potential cardio issues.

"I can't bet Christian. I can't do it."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Cristian Quiñonez

Connor picks Quiñonez, noting that Moutinho is a sacrificial lamb who has been knocked out in every UFC fight. Quiñonez is not a big step up but is still a step up, and his pressure and size should be too much for Moutinho's limited game.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'm not picking Chris Mutino, like no game is just so unidimensional and so made for, yes, old guys."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Feb 20, 2024 (739 days before fight)

Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)

The host considers this a clear dog-or-pass fight. Quiñonez is a heavy favorite at -687, but the host cannot bet him at that price. Moutinho is tough but gets rocked often, lacks knockout power, and is unlikely to outgrapple Quiñonez. The host doubts Moutinho has a realistic path to victory and will not bet this fight.

"You would have to be a crazy person to think that Moutinho is more likely to win this weekend. He isn't. But again, we've got to let the odds do the work for us. ... This is clearly doggo pass."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Cristian Quiñonez

James believes Quiñonez is far more skilled and powerful than Moutinho, who has a suspect chin after recent KOs. He predicts an early KO for Quiñonez, possibly in round one.

"I got Quinones here. I got Quonz via KO. Quonz KO in round one even."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Feb 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Cristian Quiñonez

The host picks Quiñonez but is hesitant due to the high price and altitude concerns. He notes Quiñonez's skill advantage but worries about his cardio and past submission losses. He thinks Moutinho's pressure and pace could cause issues if Quiñonez fades. He suggests a flyer on Moutinho by late finish but officially picks Quiñonez by decision.

Flyer on Moutinho round 2 or 3
"Official prediction will be Konz by decision, but maybe a flyer on Moutinho round two or round three could pay out."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kris Moutinho

Paul is leaning towards Moutinho at +500, citing Quiñonez's long layoff, ring rust, and recent losses. He notes Moutinho's pressure and durability, and plans to bet Moutinho despite the risk.

"I think I'll have some money on Chris Moutinho and I may look like a complete [ __ ]."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)
Cristian Quiñonez

The MMA Guru picks Cristian Quiñonez, calling Kris Moutinho 'garbage' and noting that Moutinho has no wins over good fighters, while Quiñonez has beaten Khalid Taha and Vinicius Oliveira. He predicts an easy TKO finish in the early rounds, citing Moutinho's lack of skill and Quiñonez's superior competition.

early rounds TKO
"I'm going to go with Christian Quinones and I'm going to take him to win this one by easy TKO finish early rounds."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Cristian Quiñonez

Zane picks Quiñonez because he is a step up from Moutinho, who is a one-dimensional brawler with no other options. Quiñonez showed good ideas against Hani Barcelos, pressing forward and testing his wrestling. Moutinho has been knocked out in every UFC fight and is not UFC level.

Quiñonez opened at -500, now -700; Moutinho opened at +385, now +500.
"Chris Mutino is just demonstrably not UFC level."
KO R1 2:37 · UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley · Jun 14, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Malcolm Wellmaker 1 25 of 39 64% 25 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Kris Moutinho 0 6 of 27 22% 7 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Malcolm Wellmaker 1 25 of 39 64% 25 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Kris Moutinho 0 6 of 27 22% 7 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Malcolm Wellmaker 25 of 39 64% 11 of 23 9 of 10 5 of 6 22 of 36 3 of 3 0 of 0
Kris Moutinho 6 of 27 22% 3 of 23 1 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Malcolm Wellmaker 25 of 39 64% 11 of 23 9 of 10 5 of 6 22 of 36 3 of 3 0 of 0
Kris Moutinho 6 of 27 22% 3 of 23 1 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kris Moutinho vs. Malcolm Wellmaker
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Wellmaker (-1450), Moutinho (+850)

Round 1
In what may serve as the widest betting discrepancy of any UFC match this year, the unbeaten flamethrower Wellmaker (9-0, 1-0 UFC) clocks in with prohibitive odds somewhere around -2000 depending on one’s book of choice. Late replacement Moutinho (14-6, 0-2 UFC), with the comeback around +950, knows what it is like to face tough opposition in the Octagon, and he is back after stringing together a slew of wins on the regional scene. Whether he has picked up any new tricks since being away, referee Brent McKeehan will see them first. What bettors consider a complete squash match begins without glove touch, and what happens next is anyone’s guess. This sport does not always play out relative to expectations or betting lines. Wellmaker jabs the body with a kick, and Moutinho ignores it and meanders forward. Wellmaker chips at his front leg twice, turning his foe around the second time. A third one, Moutinho tries to catch it but ends up eating a left hook for his trouble. Wellmaker chips at him with kicks to the body and lead leg, and he jabs to the midsection as well. Wellmaker dings Moutinho with a vicious right hand, and he backs Moutinho off with a swarm of punches. Moutinho bounces off the fencing and tries to tie up the hard-swinging undefeated fighter, and Wellmaker breaks free and scores a leg kick. Moutinho clips Wellmaker with a right hand, and Wellmaker responds with a vicious left that snaps the head back. Moutinho considers a level change, kneeing his man in the body but taking an elbow before Wellmaker backs off. Moutinho pushes forward, tripping himself up while throwing and falling to the ground. Wellmaker lets him back up, and he cracks his opponent with a body shot and a right hand up top.
Wellmaker digs a kick to the body, setting up a short but destructive right hand that cleans Moutinho’s clock. The wrecked Massachusetts native falls flat on his face, and Wellmaker walks away, nothing more left to do today but party.
Wellmaker drops to his knees while waiting for medical professionals to tend to Moutinho, who comes to and is able to stand back up. Wellmaker jumps to the top of the cage to drink in the love and admiration of his home state fans, and the place is as loud as can be after that mighty knockout.

The Official Result
Malcolm Wellmaker def. Kris Moutinho R1 2:37 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Malcolm Wellmaker

Angelo is extremely confident in Wellmaker, calling him a powerful striker with great accuracy and timing. He notes that Moutinho is not durable and has been finished in most losses. He believes Wellmaker will maul Moutinho.

Anything under minus 10,000 for wellmakers probably a gift
"Malcolm Wellmakers smoked this dude. Anything under minus 10,000 for wellmakers probably a gift."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lock picked Jun 10, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Malcolm Wellmaker

Big Brady picks Malcolm Wellmaker by first-round knockout, calling it a mismatch. He criticizes Kris Moutinho's terrible striking defense (28%) and notes he has been knocked out by lesser competition. He believes Wellmaker hits like a truck and will finish Moutinho early.

first round knockout
"Malcolm Wmaker by round one knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Malcolm Wellmaker

Wellmaker is the superior striker and will showcase that, but his defensive mistakes could allow Moutinho to capitalize. Despite picking Wellmaker to win, the minus-300 odds are considered too wide to trust.

odds comment: minus300 is way too wide to trust
"even though I'm picking Wmaker to win this matchup, I think minus300 is way too wide to trust."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Malcolm Wellmaker

The Guru picks Malcolm Wellmaker, praising his power and athleticism. He contrasts Wellmaker's counter hook with Sean O'Malley's straight punches, arguing Moutinho can absorb straight shots but will be vulnerable to Wellmaker's hooks. He predicts a first-round KO, calling it an 'absolute mismatch.' He also mentions a prop bet on Wellmaker landing under 27.5 significant strikes.

Malcolm Wellmaker under 27.5 significant strikes
"I'm going with Malcolm Wellmaker. Um, I've been talking about Malcolm Wellmaker for a long time. You know, you guys know I'm boys with Cameron Simon and I even picked Malcolm Wellmaker to beat Simon."
LOSS vs Guido Cannetti
TKO (punches) R1 2:07 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · Mar 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Guido Cannetti 0 11 of 30 36% 11 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kris Moutinho 0 28 of 44 63% 28 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Guido Cannetti 0 11 of 30 36% 11 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kris Moutinho 0 28 of 44 63% 28 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Guido Cannetti 11 of 30 36% 8 of 24 1 of 3 2 of 3 11 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kris Moutinho 28 of 44 63% 18 of 31 5 of 7 5 of 6 21 of 37 7 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Guido Cannetti 11 of 30 36% 8 of 24 1 of 3 2 of 3 11 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kris Moutinho 28 of 44 63% 18 of 31 5 of 7 5 of 6 21 of 37 7 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Kris Moutinho

Angelo leans toward Kris Moutinho due to his durability, noting that he absorbed 230 strikes against Sean O'Malley and kept coming. He acknowledges that Guido Cannetti is a technical striker but aging, and that Moutinho is young and tough. However, he admits he has no strong read on this fight and that Cannetti could win a decision.

"i will lean motino here just because of his durability i mean anybody who can take that kind of beating i just kind of lean on him there"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kris Moutinho

Big Brady hesitantly picks Kris Moutinho, citing Moutinho's youth (13 years younger), height and reach advantage, and better cardio. He acknowledges Cannetti is the better fighter but only has one round of cardio at 42 years old. He expects Moutinho to walk forward, eat punches, and take over late to win a close, greasy decision. He is not betting this fight, especially with Moutinho as a favorite.

"i'm gonna take moutinho hesitantly i'm definitely not betting it especially as a favorite"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kris Moutinho

Cody leans Moutinho, citing his youth and pressure. He notes Cannetti's age and suspect gas tank. He believes Moutinho's forward pressure will overwhelm Cannetti.

"moutino is where i would pick here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Kris Moutinho

Daniel Levi picks Kris Moutinho, noting that Guido Cannetti is 43 years old and gasses out past the first round. He believes Moutinho's durability and volume will break Cannetti down, likely winning a decision. Levi acknowledges that Moutinho is not the best but thinks this matchup favors him against an aging opponent.

"i'm gonna go chris matino"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kris Moutinho

Moutinho is expected to land crisper shots down the middle and win via decision. However, the fight is highly volatile with many possible outcomes. Cannetti has leg kicks and power, but Moutinho's durability is a question. The host is not betting this fight due to volatility.

Over 2.5 rounds at minus 130 is mentioned as a lean; Cannetti KO at plus 500 is noted as a hedge.
"I believe it's going to be Moutinho landing the crisper shots down the middle. I don't think he puts out Cannetti. So, I do think that we see Moutinho go out there and win this fight via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kris Moutinho

Paul leans Moutinho, citing his youth and pressure. He notes Cannetti's age and suspect gas tank. He believes Moutinho's forward pressure will overwhelm Cannetti.

"moutino is where i would pick here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Guido Cannetti

The MMA Guru picks Guido Cannetti as an underdog over Kris Moutinho, believing Moutinho is 'garbage at fighting' despite his name value from the Sean O'Malley fight. He highlights Cannetti's underrated skills, including dominating Marlon Vera in the first round of their fight. He expects a grinding fight where Cannetti uses his grappling to take Moutinho down and win by TKO or submission. He plans to wait for better odds as money comes in on Moutinho.

TKO or submission; underdog bet
"i'm going to wait until i put some money on guido connetti as an underdog here against chris moutinho i get that he took punishment for three rounds against o'malley but he's absolute garbage at fighting"
LOSS vs Sean O'Malley
TKO (punches) R3 4:33 · UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Jul 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean O'Malley 1 230 of 318 72% 230 of 318 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Kris Moutinho 0 70 of 218 32% 70 of 218 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean O'Malley 1 77 of 106 72% 77 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Kris Moutinho 0 24 of 72 33% 24 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Sean O'Malley 0 70 of 98 71% 70 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kris Moutinho 0 19 of 68 27% 19 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
3 Sean O'Malley 0 83 of 114 72% 83 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kris Moutinho 0 27 of 78 34% 27 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean O'Malley 230 of 318 72% 177 of 255 45 of 55 8 of 8 228 of 314 2 of 3 0 of 1
Kris Moutinho 70 of 218 32% 39 of 168 7 of 22 24 of 28 69 of 217 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean O'Malley 77 of 106 72% 59 of 88 15 of 15 3 of 3 77 of 105 0 of 0 0 of 1
Kris Moutinho 24 of 72 33% 11 of 55 2 of 5 11 of 12 24 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sean O'Malley 70 of 98 71% 53 of 75 15 of 21 2 of 2 68 of 95 2 of 3 0 of 0
Kris Moutinho 19 of 68 27% 12 of 54 4 of 10 3 of 4 18 of 67 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Sean O'Malley 83 of 114 72% 65 of 92 15 of 19 3 of 3 83 of 114 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kris Moutinho 27 of 78 34% 16 of 59 1 of 7 10 of 12 27 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sean O'Malley vs. Kris Moutinho

Round 1
The main card opener draws a short-notice replacement for O’Malley (13-1, 5-1 UFC), who now meets newcomer Moutinho (9-4, 0-0 UFC) in a bantamweight clash of unusually colored hair. Referee Herb Dean neglected to dye his own hair for this fight, and there is no glove touch before the two get after it. Moutinho comes out guns blazing, swinging at the heavy favorite but getting kicked away on the way forward. O’Malley kicks the body and leg a few times, and Moutinho is not concerned as he continues to press ahead. O’Malley scores with long, reaching punches as Moutinho rushes in recklessly, and Moutinho gets his head snapped back with a counter punch. Moutinho gets off a few leg kicks of his own to make O’Malley stumble, and he keeps his foot on the accelerator as he stalks “Sugar” down. Three crisp punches land from O’Malley, and a front kick and a head kick come up quickly. O’Malley stings Moutinho with several punches, and Moutinho wears it well even as his green hair flows around from every blow. Moutinho marches straight at O’Malley, not cutting angles or doing anything besides walking directly at O’Malley and trying to swarm him with punches. O’Malley rings the Massachusetts native’s bell with an uppercut and several more punches, and he decides to start showboating instead of finishing his foe off. O’Malley lands flush to the head and body without issue, and the green-haired Moutinho walks through them without wobbling. O’Malley clips him with a left hand coming in, and Moutinho charges fearlessly even as he gets tagged repeatedly. Moutinho kicks the leg, O’Malley scores with a right hand, and a front kick and a right hand follow as O’Malley’s accuracy is virtually perfect. Moutinho laughs off strikes as he absorbs them, and surprises O’Malley with a right hand as he leaps ahead. Moutinho digs his shin into O’Malley’s lead leg, and he points at his opponent when he lands it. Moutinho lands low with a kick and absorbs punches and knees without even flinching. Moutinho springs at him with looping right hands, and O’Malley counters well and staggers him. Moutinho gets cracked with a crisp right hand and falls to the ground, and O’Malley hunts for a choke but cannot get it in time. Moutinho barely is able to make it to his corner between rounds, but he does make it to the end of the first period.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 O’Malley
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 O’Malley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 O’Malley

Round 2
Moutinho is still hurt after trying the one-minute recovery period, but when the bell rings, he rushes at O’Malley with big punches. O’Malley continues to tag him with punches up top, and he snaps Moutinho’s head back with several jabs and mixes it up with front kicks. Moutinho eats a spinning kick to the body, and O’Malley winds up with a body kick and a head kick. The chin on Moutinho cannot be questioned as he plods forward seemingly unfazed as he gets clobbered with quick strikes. Moutinho gets off a few kicks to the body while he pursues O’Malley, and he throws hammers but cannot find their target. O’Malley makes Moutinho’s knees weak with a barrage of blows, but Moutinho is a resolute newcomer as he walks through a head kick. Moutinho walks face-first into a right hand, and he shakes it off and continues to give chase. Moutinho throws with everything he has at “Sugar,” and O’Malley is there to dodge the majority of the strikes and counter him effectively. Moutinho stalks O’Malley down but he misses with his bombs as O’Malley touches him again and again with crisp punches and clean front kicks. Moutinho shrugs off the powerful strikes, even rolling with a huge right hand from O’Malley, and he swarms O’Malley but ends up colliding with his guard. Moutinho walks through a punch to land a right hand, and he digs another to the body as O’Malley takes a deep breath. Moutinho welcomes a brawl, and when he gets one, he knocks O’Malley’s mouthpiece out. O’Malley ducks and blasts Moutinho in the face with a right hand, and he looks shocked that Moutinho is able to take it and keep coming. Moutinho ignores a front kick to the body to tie him up against the fence, and he lands a few short shots on the inside before the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley

Round 3
O’Malley opens the round with a stomp kick to the knee, and when he lands another leg kick, Moutinho starts talking to his opponent. Moutinho races forward to attack, and he eats punches and has his nose busted up but is not concerned. He manages to get off a few punches, and he may have stunned O’Malley for a moment with a barrage. O’Malley ducks and cracks his man, taking deep breaths and landing effectively with practically everything he throws. Moutinho shakes his head after O’Malley kicks him in the head, and he blitzes O’Malley but cannot corner him. Moutinho kicks O’Malley’s lead leg several times and surprises O’Malley with a right hook, but O’Malley replies with a trio of big punches. O’Malley digs a few front kicks to the body and overhand rights score one after the other, and Moutinho is bloodied but still walking forward as Terminator comparisons ring true for the newcomer. O’Malley smashes Moutinho in the face with several insane right hands, and Moutinho keeps his pace and pressure without budging. Moutinho eats a right hand and a stiff body kick, and he lands a right hand and points at O’Malley. Moutinho sneaks up a head kick and the two land right hands at the same time, but O’Malley strings together several more before Moutinho can get there. O’Malley is the matador in this fight, scoring again and again as Moutinho shrugs it off. O’Malley punishes Moutinho with a long salvo of punches, and as Moutinho is ready to fire back, Dean leaps in to call off the fight with an unexpected standing TKO. Dean may have saved Moutinho from 30 more seconds of brain trauma, as the strike totals were approaching Max Holloway numbers, but Moutinho was not out on his feet and was still throwing right back at his opponent. Fans are not thrilled by that stoppage, and it’s hard to disagree with them. O’Malley was working Moutinho over, and the numbers will back that up, but Moutinho was still in the fight and ready to battle to the bitter end.

The Official Result
Sean O’Malley def. Kris Moutinho R3 4:33 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Angelo is all-in on O'Malley, calling it a mismatch. He notes O'Malley's power, accuracy, and athleticism, and that Moutinho is a tough wrestler but gets hit and marches forward, which plays into O'Malley's strengths. He has O'Malley in his DraftKings lineup despite the high price.

"i'm all in on sean o'malley draftkings everything i'm sean o'malley everything in this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Big Brady picks Sean O'Malley to win by first-round knockout. He notes O'Malley's power and accuracy, and that Moutinho has no striking defense and comes forward with his hands down. He expects an easy walk-off knockout. He mentions that betting on O'Malley inside the distance at -320 is insane but thinks O'Malley should finish early.

first round knockout, inside the distance
"i'll take o'malley he should knock this guy out should knock him out early"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Cody picks O'Malley to win by TKO in round 2. He notes Moutinho's short notice and regional level, and O'Malley's striking advantage. He thinks O'Malley will take his time in round 1 and finish in round 2. He likes the round 2 prop at +300.

O'Malley round 2 at +300 on DraftKings; under 1.5 rounds at -190
"o'malley round two i guess is what we're saying here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Daniel Levi picks Sean O'Malley to win easily. He believes Moutinho is a short-notice replacement who comes to bang but will likely get knocked out. He notes O'Malley's power and that Moutinho is not a leg kicker, so O'Malley's weakness won't be exploited. He expects a knockout or submission for O'Malley, and dismisses criticism that O'Malley ducked tougher opponents, explaining that few could make weight on short notice.

O'Malley by KO or submission
"o'malley walks through this"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Jacob also picks O'Malley, stating he would have picked him regardless of opponent. He thinks O'Malley is extremely talented and will dominate. He notes that even at 9500, O'Malley is a deal. He expects an early stoppage and advises going less less on the strike line.

Expects early stoppage, less less on strikes
"i think sean should dominate this fight i was going to pick him in my lineup no matter who he fought"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

O'Malley is going to destroy Moutinho. Moutinho doesn't belong in the UFC; he's a short-notice replacement with losses to low-level guys. O'Malley is much taller and more skilled. I expect a quick knockout, probably in the first round. I like O'Malley by first-round KO at plus money. He'll get a performance bonus and then sit out again.

O'Malley by KO round 1 (+120), O'Malley inside the distance
"o'malley o'malley ko um i'm taking probably o'malley by first round i believe it's like plus one 10-ish plus 120"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Paul picks O'Malley, expecting a TKO. He notes Moutinho's regional level and O'Malley's highlight-reel finishes. He thinks O'Malley will win, possibly in round 2. He mentions the under 1.5 rounds as a decent play.

under 1.5 rounds at -190
"the o'malley train rolls on here i think he gets himself a tko i honestly think it gets to the second round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2021 (fight day)
Sean O'Malley

The Guru predicts O'Malley will win by first-round head kick KO. He expects O'Malley to avoid Moutinho's leg kicks, then chop at Moutinho's lead leg with his own kicks, spinning him around. Moutinho plods forward and sits heavy on his lead leg, making him vulnerable. O'Malley will land a right hand, then disguise a head kick behind it to finish Moutinho. The Guru sees no other way the fight goes.

O'Malley wins by KO in round 1
"sean o'malley i think he's going to get a destructive first round ko of chris metinya i don't see any other way of it going"
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Angelo is all-in on O'Malley, calling it a mismatch. He notes O'Malley's power, accuracy, and athleticism, and that Moutinho is a tough wrestler but gets hit and marches forward, which plays into O'Malley's strengths. He has O'Malley in his DraftKings lineup despite the high price.

"i'm all in on sean o'malley draftkings everything i'm sean o'malley everything in this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Big Brady picks Sean O'Malley to win by first-round knockout. He notes O'Malley's power and accuracy, and that Moutinho has no striking defense and comes forward with his hands down. He expects an easy walk-off knockout. He mentions that betting on O'Malley inside the distance at -320 is insane but thinks O'Malley should finish early.

first round knockout, inside the distance
"i'll take o'malley he should knock this guy out should knock him out early"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Cody picks O'Malley to win by TKO in round 2. He notes Moutinho's short notice and regional level, and O'Malley's striking advantage. He thinks O'Malley will take his time in round 1 and finish in round 2. He likes the round 2 prop at +300.

O'Malley round 2 at +300 on DraftKings; under 1.5 rounds at -190
"o'malley round two i guess is what we're saying here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Daniel Levi picks Sean O'Malley to win easily. He believes Moutinho is a short-notice replacement who comes to bang but will likely get knocked out. He notes O'Malley's power and that Moutinho is not a leg kicker, so O'Malley's weakness won't be exploited. He expects a knockout or submission for O'Malley, and dismisses criticism that O'Malley ducked tougher opponents, explaining that few could make weight on short notice.

O'Malley by KO or submission
"o'malley walks through this"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Jacob also picks O'Malley, stating he would have picked him regardless of opponent. He thinks O'Malley is extremely talented and will dominate. He notes that even at 9500, O'Malley is a deal. He expects an early stoppage and advises going less less on the strike line.

Expects early stoppage, less less on strikes
"i think sean should dominate this fight i was going to pick him in my lineup no matter who he fought"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

O'Malley is going to destroy Moutinho. Moutinho doesn't belong in the UFC; he's a short-notice replacement with losses to low-level guys. O'Malley is much taller and more skilled. I expect a quick knockout, probably in the first round. I like O'Malley by first-round KO at plus money. He'll get a performance bonus and then sit out again.

O'Malley by KO round 1 (+120), O'Malley inside the distance
"o'malley o'malley ko um i'm taking probably o'malley by first round i believe it's like plus one 10-ish plus 120"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Paul picks O'Malley, expecting a TKO. He notes Moutinho's regional level and O'Malley's highlight-reel finishes. He thinks O'Malley will win, possibly in round 2. He mentions the under 1.5 rounds as a decent play.

under 1.5 rounds at -190
"the o'malley train rolls on here i think he gets himself a tko i honestly think it gets to the second round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2021 (fight day)
Sean O'Malley

The Guru predicts O'Malley will win by first-round head kick KO. He expects O'Malley to avoid Moutinho's leg kicks, then chop at Moutinho's lead leg with his own kicks, spinning him around. Moutinho plods forward and sits heavy on his lead leg, making him vulnerable. O'Malley will land a right hand, then disguise a head kick behind it to finish Moutinho. The Guru sees no other way the fight goes.

O'Malley wins by KO in round 1
"sean o'malley i think he's going to get a destructive first round ko of chris metinya i don't see any other way of it going"