Career Averages - Gilbert Burns
Career Averages - Stephen Thompson
Gilbert Burns
Stephen Thompson
Gilbert Burns - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 40 of 92 | 43% | 42 of 94 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Mike Malott | 2 | 56 of 121 | 46% | 56 of 121 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gilbert Burns | 0 | 11 of 38 | 28% | 12 of 39 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mike Malott | 0 | 13 of 34 | 38% | 13 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Gilbert Burns | 0 | 23 of 37 | 62% | 24 of 38 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mike Malott | 0 | 22 of 53 | 41% | 22 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Gilbert Burns | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 6 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Mike Malott | 2 | 21 of 34 | 61% | 21 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns | 40 of 92 | 43% | 16 of 60 | 10 of 12 | 14 of 20 | 39 of 89 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Malott | 56 of 121 | 46% | 51 of 112 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 44 of 103 | 1 of 4 | 11 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gilbert Burns | 11 of 38 | 28% | 3 of 26 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 5 | 10 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Malott | 13 of 34 | 38% | 10 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gilbert Burns | 23 of 37 | 62% | 11 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 11 | 23 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Malott | 22 of 53 | 41% | 21 of 48 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 22 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gilbert Burns | 6 of 17 | 35% | 2 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Malott | 21 of 34 | 61% | 20 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 14 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Malott (-375); Burns (+275)
Round 1
The year is 2026, and the UFC has elected to put a fighter in Burns (22-9, 15-9 UFC) on a four-fight losing streak in a main event. He will be placed in hostile territory, perhaps set up as a stepping stone. Ready to prove that he still has plenty left in the tank, he comes to blows with proud Canadian Malott (13-2-1, 6-1 UFC). Whether a passing of the torch moment or one that shows levels to the game, referee Herb Dean will be here for them every step of the way. He brings them together to issue final instructions, and they share a fist bump. It’s on with the show.
Burns lashes out with a leg kick, and Malott sees it coming and brings his leg in to partially check it. Burns kicks off, and his foot bounces into the cup. Malott adjusts his groin and tells Dean he is good to continue, so they do not pause. Malott chases Burns to the cage behind a pair of punches, and he leans over to let a massive overhand right from the Brazilian buzz behind his neck. Burns whiffs on two more big hooks, but his digging left to the liver gets in twice. Malott swings back hard enough to make Burns think twice about coming in recklessly, and he goes for a takedown only to get stood up. Malott resets and sticks out four punches. Burns fights off a takedown shot, lets Malott hit the ground and bounce back up, and fires out a kick that pounds into his foe’s pectoral. Malott calmly jabs and rolls with the right hand he knows is coming.
Burns kicks at the front leg and is backed off with a left hand, and he defends the uppercuts and wings a right hand as Malott bends over. Burns ducks down for a takedown shot, and he bails it to loose two haymakers that hit nothing but air. Malott times a straight right hand down Broadway as Burns is aiming a leg kick, giving chase as Burns circles away. Burns shoots again, and the Canadian is a stone wall and does not give an inch. Burns backs off and bounces on his heels, tossing out a left hook that brushes the nose. Both men let fly heavy hooks, and Burns follows his land with a chopping kick. Malott looks for a hefty counter, and Burns evades it but cannot get out of the way of a calf kick. Malott leaps forward to land a body kick on the abdomen, landing to sling two hooks behind it. Burns tries to jump for an attack of his own, but time expires while he is in the air so he just lands normally.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Round 2
The two men bump fists before getting after it. Burns nails the front leg with a kick so hard, Malott drops to a knee. His calf is glowing red just a few seconds into the second round, and Burns is aware of this and does not go after it recklessly. Instead, Burns sets up the kick with blows to other targets. As he is backed off from a one-two, a thin trickle of blood leaks out of the Brazilian’s nostril, who shoots for a takedown that is stopped in its tracks. Burns rebounds to kick the inner leg of his foe, and he drills a right hand on the side of Malott’s head. Burns kicks low to punch high again, even leaping with a Superman punch. Malott backs him off behind his fists, even as Burns loops a left hand back at him. Burns scores with one more hard calf kick and a left hand after it. Malott splits his guard with an uppercut and appears to shake Burns up, who retreats in a hurry. A shiner and some blood immediately develops under Burns’ left eye, as he backs off to defend himself while Malott goes on the offensive. Malott rips uppercuts and loops his right hand around the guard, staying in range just long enough to land but not leaving himself open for Burns’ big swings.
Burns wears the strikes well but is showing damage all over, and he cannot quite secure the home run blow he is seeking. Malott sneaks in an uppercut, and Burns counters with an overhand right and waves Malott on for more. When Malott does not bite, Burns shoots for a takedown. Malott shucks him to the side and sticks a jab in his face, staying calm and composed. Malott beats Burns to the punch and forces him to spin away with a left hook. Both men lunge at one another with power, but nothing significant lands as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Round 3
Burns takes directly to the center of the cage to engage, doubling up on a jab to sling his big right hand. Malott shies away from the heavy blow and circles around to give chase to Burns. After almost 30 seconds of staring, Burns swings for the bleachers with his right hand twice. Malott laughs them off and sprawls smoothly to defuse the takedown attempt before anything comes of it. Malott backs Burns to the fence with his long, straight punches, staying at his preferred distance to not get caught with the counter. Burns tries and fails to bash him with his right hand, but he leaves himself wide open for an uppercut and a left hook that puts Burns down hard. Burns climbs back up but is compromised, leading to Malott knocking him down again with a blistering right hand. Burns hits his side and is not about to go anywhere, so Malott hammers the nail with a final onslaught of concussive fists that force Dean to step in. The crowd, understandably, goes wild. Malott has earned the biggest win of his career in his most significant fight to date, and he does it by knockout after going toe-to-toe with a powerful striker. Canada may not have won the night in terms of individual matchups, going 4-5 throughout the billing, but Malott prevailed when it mattered most.
The logjam of the welterweight title picture has yet another contender, and as this sport gives, it also takes. A heartbroken “Durinho” leaves his gloves in the center of the cage to signal his retirement, overcome by emotion but still more than willing to give it up for the man that just put him down. The respectful victor has nothing but positive things to say about his opponent, his team and his fans. He does not have any opponent set as he hopes to work his way up the ladder, instead saying he will do so the “Proper” way. When he competes again, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Mike Malott def. Gilbert Burns R3 2:08 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Mike Malott with extreme confidence, calling Gilbert Burns too old, slow, and not durable. He notes Gilbert is on a four-fight losing streak and has not submitted anyone recently. He recommends parlaying Malott heavily, saying the odds are too wide and should be much higher.
Big Brady hesitantly picks Mike Malott, despite calling him overrated. He criticizes Malott's takedown defense, questionable cardio, and low volume, but notes his power. Brady also doubts Gilbert Burns' durability and age (40). He predicts Malott wins by second-round knockout but says he will not bet on the fight.
Cody picks Gilbert Burns because he sees value in the plus money and questions Mike Malott's cardio in later rounds. He notes that Burns has fought top competition and that Malott has never been past three rounds. He also mentions that the line movement towards Burns supports his pick.
Daniel believes Mike Malott is catching Gilbert Burns at a great time, as Burns is nearly 40 and on a decline. He thinks Malott's explosiveness and freshness will be key, and that Burns will show signs of aging when hit. He predicts Malott will finish Burns.
Burns is a value underdog despite being older and on a losing streak. Malott fades in later rounds and has shown weakness on the ground. Burns has excellent grappling and cardio for five rounds. If Burns survives the early rounds, he can take over. The odds are too wide; this fight is closer to 50/50.
James believes the line is too wide and that Gilbert Burns has value as a plus 425 underdog. He thinks Burns can weather the early storm and take over in later rounds due to his experience and cardio. Despite picking Malott as the pure winner, he confidently sides with Burns for the moneyline.
The host mentions the main event but does not make a pick for either fighter. He only notes that Gilbert Burns has been bet down from a massive underdog to a big underdog.
The host believes Mike Malott will land a big shot and put Gilbert Burns away, but does not like the chalk on Malott. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds as the best way to play the matchup, expecting pocket exchanges and a striking battle. He notes Burns' age and four-fight losing streak, and thinks Malott's power will be the difference.
Paul also picks Gilbert Burns, citing the same concerns about Malott's cardio and the value on Burns. He mentions he has a bet on Burns at plus 316 and likes late round props. He believes Burns can win if the fight goes into the later rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Michael Morales | 2 | 33 of 56 | 58% | 35 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gilbert Burns | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Michael Morales | 2 | 33 of 56 | 58% | 35 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns | 5 of 18 | 27% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Morales | 33 of 56 | 58% | 31 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 25 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gilbert Burns | 5 of 18 | 27% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Morales | 33 of 56 | 58% | 31 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 25 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 9 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Morales (-850), Burns (+575)
Round 1
In keeping with the theme of fights that promise action and intensity, the main event should be just what the doctor ordered. Former title challenger Burns (22-8, 15-8 UFC) may have his best days behind him, but “Durinho” is still as dangerous at it comes at 170 pounds. To keep himself in top contention, he will need to deflate the momentum of Morales (17-0, 5-0 UFC), who would like nothing more than to have a breakout performance at the expense of the vaunted grappler. Referee Herb Dean brings these two to the center of the cage to issue final instructions, and they stoically bump fists to seal the cage and make things official. It’s time for some action. It is Morales who claims the center of the Monster Logo on the floor, while Burns circles around him. Burns circles away from the power side of the Ecuadorian, and he lets loose a low kick that slaps loudly. When Morales retaliates with a calf kick, it is a thudding sound. Burns leaps forward to strike, and Morales dances out of the way and punches him around the back of the ear. Burns launches a kick up high, and Morales parries and lobs a jab back. Burns throws a fastball of a right hand that is well off the mark, but his check left hook does catch the chin. Morales lines up a heavy right hand that back off Burns, and he gets clipped by the older man. Burns marches him down looping hooks, and Morales rolls with the punches and jabs his way forward. Burns counters and takes a few more jabs on the nose, and he absorbs a thumping kick on his calf. Morales connects with a crisp uppercut, shaking up the grappler and forcing him to shoot for a takedown. Morales is dragged to his seat for a moment, and Burns wraps his arms around him as Morales stands. Burns leans in close and tight, but Morales pushes him back and unloads with power punches. Morales knocks Burns back to the wall courtesy of a clubbing right hand, and his onslaught slowly breaks Burns down and puts him on the ground.
Dean calls for Burns to fight back, and Burns answers by ducking under and grabbing his foe's legs awkwardly for some kind of desperation takedown. Morales steps over it, allows Burns to stand and lays into him with a blistering salvo of bombarding fists that puts “Durinho” down for the count again. This time, as Dean observes that Burns’ face is bleeding and he is in a bad way, he waves the fight off.
Burns sits up, but he does not protest, knowing that the day is not his. Morales has just passed the biggest test of his career with flying colors, destroying a durable top talent in the first round and not looking back. When Burns gets back to his feet, he needs a minute to recover, but he embraces the man who ran through him like no one has at 170 pounds. The 25-year-old handles the huge moment with poise, dedicating the victory to his mother and thanking her for her advice while declaring that he is ready for the next challenge, whatever that may be. Morales says he is healthy and ready to go, so with any luck, he will be back in the cage at least one more time this year. When he fights next, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Michael Morales def. Gilbert Burns R1 3:39 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Michael Morales confidently, citing that Morales is a better wrestler, striker, bigger, faster, stronger, and younger than Gilbert Burns. He notes that Burns is on the wrong side of 35 and coming off a loss to Sean Brady where his grappling was neutralized. Angelo questions what game plan Burns could have, as Morales is a national wrestling champion and Burns was just knocked out. He is shocked Morales is only -600 and expects the line to close at -1000.
Big Brady picks Michael Morales, citing Burns' age (38), three-fight skid, and declining durability. He notes Morales is a much better striker with volume and power, and expects him to find Burns' chin. He predicts a second-round knockout.
The host thinks Morales is a huge favorite but not justified given Burns' strength of schedule; Burns' three-fight losing streak came against top competition. He gives Burns the benefit of the doubt as a championship gatekeeper but worries if Burns can't dictate pace or get takedowns, his cardio fades and Morales can take over and knock him out. He picks Morales to win by knockout, but notes minus 800 is tough to get behind. He also leans under 3.5 rounds.
The Guru picks Michael Morales, calling him a crazy natural athlete who controls distance well and switches stances. He thinks Burns is past his prime and lacks the grit to engage, citing the Sean Brady fight where Burns didn't let his hands go. He believes the five-round fight benefits Morales' picking style and predicts a decision win (49-46). He notes the -850 odds are insane and thinks Morales is not that good, but still picks him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brady | 0 | 47 of 97 | 48% | 76 of 126 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 130 of 217 | 59% | 274 of 368 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 10:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Brady | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 58 of 79 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:15 | |
| 2 | Sean Brady | 0 | 8 of 20 | 40% | 12 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 33 of 54 | 61% | 59 of 81 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 | |
| 3 | Sean Brady | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 29 of 39 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 19 of 38 | 50% | 77 of 97 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 | |
| 4 | Sean Brady | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 24 of 34 | 70% | 44 of 54 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:48 | |
| 5 | Sean Brady | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 18 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 31 of 49 | 63% | 36 of 57 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brady | 47 of 97 | 48% | 25 of 72 | 19 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 32 of 80 | 15 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 130 of 217 | 59% | 97 of 179 | 12 of 16 | 21 of 22 | 118 of 202 | 11 of 13 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Brady | 6 of 14 | 42% | 2 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 23 of 42 | 54% | 17 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 39 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean Brady | 8 of 20 | 40% | 5 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 33 of 54 | 61% | 24 of 43 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 50 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sean Brady | 17 of 27 | 62% | 9 of 19 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 19 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 19 of 38 | 50% | 16 of 32 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 32 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Sean Brady | 7 of 16 | 43% | 5 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 24 of 34 | 70% | 17 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 | 24 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Sean Brady | 9 of 20 | 45% | 4 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 31 of 49 | 63% | 23 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 7 | 30 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brady (-185), Burns (+154)
Round 1
With the welterweight title picture in flux thanks to a glut of contenders, the winner of this main event might need to get one more victory after tonight to get a crack at gold. Nevertheless, it is a big one at 170 pounds as former title challenger Burns (22-7, 15-7 UFC) looks to show that age is nothing but a number at 38 years young when he throws down with much younger grappler Brady (16-1, 6-1 UFC). This bout could take place anywhere, and it likely will go everywhere before it is all settled. Referee Herb Dean will hand the particulars for the headliner, and he brings the fighters together to respectfully touch gloves. It’s on with the show. Brady strikes first in the form of an inside low kick. Burns jumps forward with a knee that does not come up, and he backs off as Brady slaps him with another leg kick. Brady attacks the same spot with his kick once more, and he punches his way into a combination of fists that makes Burns smile at him. Burns lunges with a left hook, and Brady backs him off with a handful of punches. Brady scoops an uppercut through the guard, and he interrupts an advancing Burns with a straight left. Burns lets loose a few hooks, and Brady is wise to them and counters the Brazilian with a quicker combo. Burns times a punch to shoot in for a double, and he deposits the Philadelphia native to his seat. Brady climbs back to his feet thanks to the wall behind him, and they trade knees in the clinch as Brady walks Burns from one side of the cage to the other. Brady uppercuts on the break, and he races forward landing a series of punches that Burns largely blocks. Brady considers changing levels, but the Brazilian stops it from going anywhere. Brady gets in a short uppercut, and they trade knees on the inside in a clinch. Burns spins him about and looks for a single, allowing Brady to knee him in the face. Brady trips Burns up, and Burns topples to his knee, jumps back up and lashes out with an elbow that is inches away from his intended target. Brady reaches with longer punches than Burns is throwing, and he backs Burns up with a chain of strikes and pushes him to the chain links. Brady lifts Burns up and sets him on the mat, and Burns is quick to wall-walk to get upright. Brady hangs on from the side, tripping Burns up but not grounding him with a mat return effort. Burns spins out with seconds to spare, kneeing Brady once before the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 2
Burns absorbs a clean body kick to start the round, and he responds with an overhand right that sends Brady flying into the wall. Burns leaps after him, but is grabbed and spun around in the clinch. Brady drops down for a double, and his first try lifts Burns up but does not put him on his back. Brady knees the Brazilian in the thigh a few times until Burns turns him about, and they break up. Brady gets off a trio of one-twos, and Burns walks through them and pushes out his own jab. Brady lands three punches in rapid succession, and he takes another hard right hand as Burns surges into action. After taking another powerful punch on the chin, Brady gets hold of the clinch. Burns wraps a right hand over the guard on the break, and he winds up with two more power hooks that Brady ducks and tries to counter with wrestling. Burns spins him to the fence, but he lets go so he can punch Brady in the face. Brady hits a takedown, and Burns scrambles, spins him around and dumps Brady to a knee. Burns grabs Brady from behind as Brady leans against the wall, and Brady fights out of the grip and uses a jab. Brady lands a jab and a low kick, and he lands another leg kick on the inside. Brady swarms forward with punches, clubbing Burns on the side of the head around the guard. Brady rifles off three quick punches, and he ducks a right hand to double up on a jab. Burns loads up on his power hook, and Brady is more accurate and far more active. They shadowbox until the round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 3
The welterweights meet in the middle, and Brady’s jabs are the first blows to lead off the round. Burns responds with a low kick and a body kick, and he dings Brady on the nose with a right hand. Brady chains several punches together in response until Burns ties him up. Burns is spun around and eats several body shots, and he gives one back before Brady goes after a single. Burns pulls his leg out and puts his guard up to defend the attack from Brady. Brady goes for a takedown, and Burns spins him around and throws him to his knees. Burns lets fly a pair of huge hooks, and Brady thanks his lucky stars he did not absorb them flush. Brady splits the guard with an uppercut, and he walks face-first into a right hand that stuns him. Brady still has the wherewithal to power forward into the clinch, and he considers a level change until Burns spins him about and attacks a single. Brady hops back to remain on his feet, and they split apart after some dirty boxing. Brady charges forward to go after a single, and Burns pushes on the back of Brady’s neck to stifle it. Burns gets a bit of space and throws punches, but it is an elbow on the inside when Brady comes towards him that does some damage. Burns lays into Brady’s body with knees, and Brady backs away. Burns slips a jab and counters with a right hand, and he turns to his side when Burns takes him down. Burns tags him with an overhand right on the standup, and Brady explodes through to scoop the Brazilian up with a double and loudly dumps Burns to the floor. Burns pushes off and defends himself until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 4
The two reach the championship rounds, and they share a fist bump to kick off the fourth frame. Brady paws out a few jabs, and he offers out a leg kick that bumps into Burns’ cup. Dean calls time, and Burns walks away to lean on the fence and recover. Burns takes a minute to get his wind back, and the two share another fist bump. Burns whips a kick to the body as Brady comes at him, and this time Burns has kicked Brady in the groin. As Dean calls time again, Brady falls to his knees in pain, and he takes a little bit and winks at the camera. Brady paces back and forth until another minute elapses, and Dean tells them to please keep it clean. On the next restart, Brady kicks the lead leg on the outside and then twice on the inside. Burns kicks the front leg once, and Brady fires right back. Brady releases a solid body kick, and he plants his left hand on Burns’ chin when setting down. Brady drives a few jabs through the guard, and Burns clubs him behind the ear and makes him stumble. Burns ducks a jab to respond with another heavy right hand, and Brady knows it is coming and still has to shake it off. Brady rushes at him with six punches in a row, resulting in a clinch. As Brady keeps Burns against the fence, he holds his fingers in the links, and he is warned for it. Burns gets a little space and knees Brady in the face and releases a right hand on the side of the dome. They break apart to reset, and Brady punches his way into a single that lands and puts Burns on his seat. Burns defends with a guillotine choke and uses it to work his way to his feet, only for Brady to sling him down with a mat return. Burns responds with a leglock, and Brady scrambles enough but gives up his back. Burns rolls through and keeps hold of Brady’s back in a grappling exchange, and they stand up with Burns behind him. Burns lifts Brady up and slams him down, and Brady climbs back up after landing on his face. Burns cannot get the takedown again before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 5
The two touch gloves to start off the last round, and even though Brady might be ahead in terms of raw numbers, it might still be anyone’s fight. Brady adds to his totals when it commences with a stream of punches, and Burns ducks away and has his front leg kicked. Burns wings a right hand over the top, and Brady pecks at him from a safer distance with jabs and leg kicks. Burns winds up with a right hand that gets Brady’s attention, and Brady steels himself to throw hands and rushes into a legal knee where the foot lifts and bounces into the cup. Dean calls time and checks the replay to make sure it struck Brady’s groin, and Brady takes 50 seconds before resuming. They get back to it with a brief firefight, throwing hard at one another. Brady doubles up on leg kicks, and he also sticks out a double jab and a right hand. Burns slams his low kick home, and he leaps at Brady and cracks him in the chin with his knee. A shocked Brady turns him around and goes after the single, but Burns is a stone wall. Burns pushes Brady back and wings a right hand that brushes past the hair. Brady shoots for a high single and lifts Burns up to dump him to the floor. Brady peels precious time off the clock as he maintains ground control, until Burns threatens with an omoplata that he uses to turn himself around and work his way to his feet. Brady trips Burns out and slams him to the floor like a sack of potatoes, landing in half guard for a moment before Burns pushes off his chest. Burns turns to grab hold of a leglock, and Brady smartly turns through it and lowers himself back down to not let Burns get any extension on it. Burns works to his feet only to get muscled down to the mat, and when time expires, Brady collapses to the floor in exhaustion. This brings to a close an intriguing back-and-forth battle that answered a slew of questions for the resurgent Brady, including how he can perform in a five-rounder. While the top of welterweight is a mess, the Brady victory likely puts on the shortlist of top contenders. Brady knows that a title fight may not be the immediate next challenge for him, so he calls for anyone in the top five or the unbeaten Ian Garry—the latter Brady says could work because they share the same management. If that matchup comes together, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady (48-47 Brady)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Brady (50-45 Brady)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady (50-45 Brady)
The Official Result
Sean Brady def. Gilbert Burns via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
Angelo picks Sean Brady because he is bigger, has good takedowns and Jiu-Jitsu, and is coming off a dominant win over Kelvin Gastelum. He questions how Gilbert Burns can win, noting Burns' small size, 50% takedown defense, and 38% takedown accuracy. He believes Brady's new-generation black belt will be too much for Burns, though he acknowledges Burns could control on top if he gets takedowns.
Big Brady picks Sean Brady to win by decision but admits he doesn't have a ton of confidence. He notes Burns is 38 and talking retirement, while Brady is 31 and improving. Brady thinks Brady's wrestling could win minutes and he might hurt Burns, but acknowledges Burns' phenomenal grappling and underrated striking. He expects a decision.
Cody argues that Burns is the better striker with proven five-round experience, while Brady has poor cardio and striking volume. He notes Brady gassed against Belal Muhammad and relies solely on takedowns, which Burns' 80% takedown defense can neutralize. Despite concerns about Burns' age and coaching distractions, he sees value at +150 and picks Burns as a dog, but admits it's a rollercoaster and not a high-confidence play.
Cody picks Michael Morales, noting that Morales is 25, undefeated, and improving each fight. He expects Morales to take over as the fight goes into later rounds due to his youth and cardio advantage. Cody also mentions the reach advantage and judo background of Morales, and suggests live betting or over totals rather than laying -800.
Daniel believes Brady is catching Burns at the perfect time, as Burns is 38 and coming off two losses (to Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena). He notes Brady's improved mindset after losing his undefeated record, and his strong performance against Kelvin Gastelum, where he showed heart and cardio. Daniel thinks Brady's physical strength and short, stocky frame will make him hard to submit, and that Brady can tire Burns out and potentially have success on the feet.
Brady is younger and should dictate the pace with wrestling and clinch work. Burns is 38 and on a two-fight losing streak, often gassing in later rounds. Brady can wear Burns down and finish in the third or fourth round. The only hesitation is that it's Brady's first five-round fight, but he is still favored.
Paul acknowledges Burns' cardio issues and recent decline, noting he gassed against Jack Della Maddalena and seems to have lost his grappling edge. He sees Brady's path via takedowns and control, especially in a five-round fight where Burns' cardio is a bigger liability. However, he is hesitant because he has never been a Sean Brady fan and dislikes the -175 price. He ultimately picks Brady but with low confidence, calling it a 'gun to my head' pick.
Paul picks Gilbert Burns as a dog, taking a small poke on Burns by submission at +1800. He acknowledges Burns is likely washed but sees value in the prop given Burns' submission history and the possibility of catching Morales. Paul admits he doesn't expect to win but likes the long odds.
The MMA Guru picks Sean Brady over Gilbert Burns. He cites the age difference (Burns is 38) and notes Brady has improved massively. He mentions Brady's wins over Kelvin Gastelum and Jake Matthews, and that he neutralized Craig Jones in grappling. He criticizes Burns' recent performance against JDM, arguing Burns didn't do enough. He believes Brady's size and strength will allow him to stall on the ground and win a slow-paced decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 27 of 58 | 46% | 31 of 63 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 0 | 0 | 5:07 |
| Gilbert Burns | 1 | 67 of 123 | 54% | 85 of 146 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 20 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:15 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 18 of 38 | 47% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 11 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 21 of 48 | 43% | 27 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:13 |
| Gilbert Burns | 1 | 28 of 37 | 75% | 35 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 27 of 58 | 46% | 16 of 43 | 8 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 52 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Gilbert Burns | 67 of 123 | 54% | 54 of 104 | 9 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 47 of 100 | 4 of 6 | 16 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 18 of 35 | 51% | 9 of 23 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 29 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Gilbert Burns | 18 of 38 | 47% | 13 of 33 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 34 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jack Della Maddalena | 9 of 20 | 45% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 21 of 48 | 43% | 15 of 36 | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 28 of 37 | 75% | 26 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 17 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-162), Burns (+136)
Round 1
The deep card continues with a potential thriller at 170 pounds between a striker and a grappler who loves to bang. Former lightweight and Mundials medalist Burns (22-6, 15-6 UFC) will try to derail the hype train and 16-fight win streak of talented Aussie Maddalena (16-2, 6-0 UFC), and referee Dan Miragliotta is as psyched as the fans are to see it go down. Ahead of their scheduled melee, the two men bump fists. Burns whips a low kick to find his distance, and Maddalena paws out a jab. Burns aims a kick to the body and then lead leg, and Maddalena jabs him back. Chants of “Gilbert” rain down in support of the Brazilian by way of Florida, and he does not go crazy when hearing it and stays composed to land punches and a body kick. Burns shoots for a takedown, and when Maddalena scrambles, he takes the back. Maddalena scrambles and turns, and Burns drags him down from behind to assume partial control of the back again. Maddalena once more explodes to his feet, and he is pushed back to the fence as Burns wants to relocate him to a more horizontal position. Burns aims a knee to the sternum hen the takedown is thwarted, and he drops down low for a single and lets it go to hang on. Maddalena counters with a throw and knees Burns in the face with a strike that was borderline, but it was uncalled as a potential foul, so they continue. Burns appears no worse for wear, but he is less aggressive than before as Maddalena sticks out several jabs and a low kick. Maddalena sneaks in and scores a right hand, and Burns kicks him in the ribs and comes up short with a booming right hand. Burns fires off another big right, and Maddalena sees it coming and boxes him back. Maddalena tags Burns with a left hand, and he leans back to dodge a head kick that flies past his noggin. Maddalena strings three left together to the head and then body, and Burns grits his teeth and swings back with bad intentions. Maddalena times an advancing Burns to nail him with a left hook, and Burns takes it well enough and jabs back. Burns wings a right hand that just misses, and Maddalena skim a right hand off the cheek. Burns again fires off an inaccurate head kick, and he crashes forward to engage and lands a right hand, backs off and kicks the body and lead leg. Maddalena darts in with two swiping lefts, and he defends against a takedown that puts him on his back. Burns sits up and drops down hammerfists, and he concludes the close round with a standing-to-ground right hand.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Round 2
Maddalena jabs early to lead off, and he prods out a front kick that Burns parries. Maddalena aims a left to the body as he doubles up on jabs, and he ducks when Burns counters with an overhand right. Burns swings hard, and Maddalena sees it coming and backs him away with a straight right hand. Burns kicks high, and he is the one that bounces back when hitting the guard. Maddalena dings his man with a punch, and Burns shoots for a single and moves Maddalena to the mat. Maddalena gets to a knee, and Burns clings to him from on top. Maddalena shrugs off a potential submission from the Brazilian to stand back upright, and they both land punches at the same time. Maddalena aims a left hand straight down the middle, and Burns throws back with a heavy right that draws some swelling. Maddalena dings “Durinho” with a one-two, and Burns throws back with the same and hops away to avoid an Anderson Silva-esque back elbow. Burns winds up and bounces a right hand on the forehead, and Maddalena crowds him and chains five punches together before pulling back. Maddalena leans back, scores and evades the counters. Maddalena connects with four punches before Burns escapes out the side, and Burns smiles and throws a big right hand. Maddalena slips and digs a right to the body. Burns blasts Maddalena in the face with a huge overhand right, and Maddalena frowns and gets taken down from a blast double. Maddalena turns to his knees, and he considers his own takedown but Burns easily stops it and drags him down with his arm wrapped around the neck. Burns steps into full mount, but Maddalena scrambles perfectly to get out. Burns takes the back as they keep moving, and he get hooks in and secures the body triangle. Burns sneaks an arm around the chin, but there is nothing there as Maddalena sticks his tongue out before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Round 3
The last round kicks off, and Maddalena is back to his jab. Burns strafes laterally, and stops as Maddalena kicks him in the chest. Maddalena scores a right, and he leaps forward with another as Burns continues to move. Burns kicks him in the head, and Maddalena counters him with several uppercuts that rock the Brazilian. Burns leans over, and after absorbing a few more, he shoots for a single to stop himself from taking damage. Maddalena elbows him once before rolling through to stop a takedown, and the elbow smashes the Brazilian’s nose open and blood leaks down his face. Burns wrenches him down to the floor from the side. Burns presses his full body weight on his opponent, and he disallows Maddalena from standing by isolating the right leg. Maddalena looks at the video to find a better way to get up, and Burns wraps arms around the waist and drags him down. Burns gets a hook in and uses his left arm to set up a rear-naked choke, but his other arm is busy so there is no submission in sight. Burns pushes through to advance position, and they both flip all the way over. Maddalena scurries back to his feet, and Burns follows and charges directly into about the cleanest knee one could ever offer. Burns falls to his back, and Maddalena lays into the damaged Burns with a long barrage of punches and elbows. As Maddalena puts more mustard on the elbows, Miragliotta watches closely and makes the decision to intervene and wave the fight off while Burns is staring blankly into space, detached from his senses. This is a huge comeback for the Aussie, who has now won 17 fights in a row while putting away the ultra-durable “Durinho.”
The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Gilbert Burns R3 3:43 via KO (Knee and Elbows)
Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his high-volume striking and jab. He thinks Burns is past his prime and has been exposed by wrestlers. He believes Della Maddalena will piece Burns up on the feet and defend takedowns. He has a half-unit bet on Della Maddalena at -125.
Big Brady picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Della Maddalena has great striking and power, but has made grappling mistakes in the past. He believes Della Maddalena can keep the fight standing and finish Burns, though Burns could submit him if it goes to the mat. He acknowledges the fight could go either way.
Cody notes that Della Maddalena has been in close fights and could easily have lost, while Burns is a well-rounded grappler with a clear path to victory via takedowns. He thinks Burns's wrestling and experience will be too much for Della Maddalena.
Daniel is confident in Jack Della Maddalena, citing his superior boxing and underrated takedown defense. He notes that Burns has been dropped by jabs from Usman, Chimaev, and Muhammad, and that Jack has a nasty jab. Daniel acknowledges Burns's dangerous jiu-jitsu but believes Jack can avoid submissions by not getting carried away with guillotines like he did against Hiestand. He bet Jack at minus 135 and expects Jack to light Burns up and possibly knock him out.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jack Della Maddalena, stating he has never picked against him and doesn't plan to start. He acknowledges this is a big step up from fighting Kevin Holland to Gilbert Burns, and calls it a 'dog or pass' spot. Vreeland notes that Burns gets hit by good strikers, as seen against Kamaru Usman and Vicente Luque, and that Burns' path to victory is to grapple immediately. He believes the line should be closer to even money but still picks JDM.
Jeff Fox picks Jack Della Maddalena as well, echoing that he has never picked against him. He mentions that Burns is always in people's corners coaching, which may detract from his own training. Fox also notes that Burns gets hit by good strikers, citing the Kamaru Usman knockout. He believes JDM's youth and momentum are key, and that Burns' best chance is to take the fight to the ground immediately.
Della Maddalena is a far superior striker with excellent range management and takedown defense, as shown in his fight against Kevin Holland. Burns relies on takedowns to win, but at 38 years old and with declining athleticism, he may struggle to get the fight to the ground. Della Maddalena should dictate the pace in the striking realm and eventually land a knockout in the second or third round. Burns' BJJ is a threat, but Della Maddalena's improved awareness should keep him safe.
Paul agrees, pointing out that Della Maddalena has shown holes in his takedown defense and that Burns can exploit that. He also notes that Burns has a strong wrestling game and can win rounds by controlling position on the ground.
The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena, arguing he clearly beat Bassil Hafez and Kevin Holland. He believes JDM's striking defense is excellent and that he will stuff Burns' takedowns and tune him up on the feet with a jab. He notes Burns' tendency to bail on takedowns with guillotine attempts and predicts JDM will TKO Burns late in round one.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 0 | 132 of 283 | 46% | 132 of 283 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 81 of 147 | 55% | 81 of 147 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 19 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 15 of 31 | 48% | 15 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 18 of 51 | 35% | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 15 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 25 of 59 | 42% | 25 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 14 of 22 | 63% | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 28 of 54 | 51% | 28 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 16 of 23 | 69% | 16 of 23 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 42 of 80 | 52% | 42 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 21 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 132 of 283 | 46% | 92 of 241 | 39 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 132 of 283 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 81 of 147 | 55% | 35 of 96 | 13 of 16 | 33 of 35 | 81 of 147 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 19 of 39 | 48% | 9 of 29 | 9 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 15 of 31 | 48% | 7 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 18 of 51 | 35% | 11 of 44 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 15 of 28 | 53% | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 | 15 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 25 of 59 | 42% | 20 of 53 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 14 of 22 | 63% | 7 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Belal Muhammad | 28 of 54 | 51% | 18 of 44 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 16 of 23 | 69% | 6 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 16 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Belal Muhammad | 42 of 80 | 52% | 34 of 71 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 42 of 80 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 21 of 43 | 48% | 9 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 9 | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Burns (-125), Muhammad (+105)
Round 1
A rarity in the promotion the last several years, the UFC is offering up an official “title eliminator” status for a fight. This comes at 170 pounds, between two excelling talents who are stringing win streaks together at the right time. While many believe Muhammad (22-3, 1 NC; 13-3, 1 NC UFC) should have gotten a title shot already, he will look to push his unbeaten streak to 10 when he collides with brick-fisted grappler Burns (22-5, 15-5 UFC). The two will have five rounds to work, even with no championship or main event status available. This short-notice tilt will receive oversight from referee Keith Peterson, and there is no nonsense or touching of gloves to start things off. Chants for “Let’s go, Burns” rain down immediately in the building, and Burns is spurred into action with a charging right hand. Muhammad absorbs a low kick and looks to find angles and get to Burns with his footwork. Muhammad ricochets a kick off his opponent’s raised guard, and he sneaks a left hand through it. Burns loads up on his power right hand, and Muhammad darts away and aims out a jab. Another solid right from the Brazilian connects square on the chin, and Muhammad backs off and eats a leg kick to follow. Burns flicks a kick up high off the raised guard, and he sneaks a right hand through. Muhammad retaliates with a shin to the ribs, and Burns intercepts a subsequent kick to tackle his man to the mat. Muhammad climbs right back up and strikes a few more kicks to the liver, and he dodges a swatting left hook. Muhammad stays composed and utilizes his jab effectively, mixing in kicks occasionally to stay busier. Burns comes up short on a winging hook, and he kicks the body. Muhammad counters with a straight left hand that staggers Burns, and Burns grits his teeth and slams his right fist into Muhammad’s jaw twice to make “Remember the Name” remember his power. Burns has a kick caught, and he scrambles out of the way before getting dumped to the floor. Burns goes up high with a kick, and Burns stumbles back right as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 2
The second frame kicks off as the two welterweights meet in the middle, and Burns strikes first with a stomping kick to the kneecap. Muhammad strafes to his right, and Burns follows him with a kick to the inside of the knee. Burns comes up short with a right hook, allowing Muhammad to sink in another liver kick. Burns chambers and fires a low kick and a massive right hand, and Muhammad’s beard absorbs it without much issue. Muhammad whips a high kick up, and he aims one to the body as Burns retaliates low to the inner calf. Burns paws away a one-two, and he gathers his thoughts to blast Muhammad in the face with a power right. Muhammad replies with a blocked head kick, and Burns hops around to shake it out. Muhammad is far less active, as Burns steps in with a right. The jabs from Muhammad are less constant, and Burns stings him with a right hand on the temple. Muhammad flashes his jab a few times, and Burns walks into one and storms forward. Muhammad times a body kick, and Burns gives him one to the calf back. Burns fires off a short right hand when Muhammad bears down on him, and he lets go with an inside low kick. Muhammad rips a kick to the side, and Burns surges into action and has a right hand slide off the shoulder. Burns lets fly a low kick, and he dodges a zipping left hand. Muhammad gives chase, and his fists collide with the guard. The slower round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Round 3
The round begins with a body kick from the Brazilian, and Muhammad retaliates with a front kick that grazes the cup. There is no pause, as Burns waves it off, and the crowd grows restless from the otherwise lack of action in the first minute. Muhammad gets off a jab or two, and Burns chambers his right hand and blocks a head kick. Burns gets off a single jab of his own, and he steps back from a looping punch. Burns kicks the lead leg a few times, and he stumbles when walking forward. Muhammad fires off a high kick that smacks into a shoulder, and Burns swings and misses wit ha haymaker. The pace is very deliberate and ineffective on both sides, and Muhammad throws two punches at a time if he can. Burns backs off, and Muhammad follows him with a head kick that bounces off the shoulder and a few straight punches. Burns tags him with a big right hand, and Muhammad shakes it off and sneaks a kick under Burns’ elbow. Burns steps in with a knee to the chest, and he gets kicked in the neck for his effort. The Brazilian appears no worse for wear, and he backs away when Muhammad jabs and front kicks at him. Burns throws a high body kick that smacks into the armpit, and Muhammad chains two kicks together with his left leg. Muhammad jabs quickly when Burns races forward, and he stays active with kicks. Muhammad gets into his groove of head kicks and jabs, stifling Burns. “Durinho” swings and misses with his right, and Muhammad makes him pay with a body shot. The tepid round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 4
Between rounds, Burns appears to be struggling with his left arm, and he complains to his corner that he cannot use it. Despite this, the championship rounds are upon them, and Burns’ body language and face show he is not having a good time in the cage. Muhammad compounds this by starting off Round 4 with a body kick and a few punches, and Burns blinks hard and drills Muhammad with a right hand on the jaw. Muhammad shakes it targets the same spot on the ribs with one more kick. Burns shells up as Muhammad kicks his body, and Burns replies with one of his own. Muhammad narrowly blocks a head kick in time, with Burns surprising him with the sudden strike. Muhammad stutter-steps his way into action, with a one-two off the guard as he leans back from a home run punch soaring at him. Burns drops down to snatch up a single, and he nails Muhammad with a blistering right hand that gives Muhammad a little wobble. Burns celebrates this with a body kick, a knee to the body and a leg kick, and he backs Muhammad away with a feint. Burns considers another single, and he abandons it because he cannot use his arm to secure it. Muhammad kicks high to the hurt arm, and Burns grimaces. Seeing this, Muhammad attacks it again with a kick up high. Muhammad shrugs off a leg kick to the inside of his knee, and he fires off two kicks to the shoulder. Burns blocks the strikes that come at him, and he splits a right hand down the pipe that shakes Muhammad up again. Muhammad weathers it and goes to jab, and the round ends with the crowd booing the welterweights.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 5
A dejected Burns is able to come out of his corner to start the last round, and a corner stoppage would not be out of the question given Burns condition. This sport rarely allows for such a courtesy, and the last round begins. Burns blocks an early head kick and loops two right hands over the top. Burns drops down for a takedown, and he abandons it and absorbs a few kicks to the head and body. Muhammad reaches his foe with a lunging right, and he is out of range when Burns attempts his overhand right. Burns is caught with a right hand coming in, and he wobbles back but gathers his balance. Muhammad punishes the ribs with the umpteenth kick to that same target, and Burns toughs it out. They both clash together with their fists, and Muhammad is the one to land better and backs Burns away. Burns secures a leg kick to buckle Muhammad’s knee for a second, but Muhammad speedily recovers and he takes another. Burns leaps in with a few rights, and Muhammad counters and fearlessly walks Burns down. Muhammad leans back from the obligatory right hook and tags him with a few punches, and he sees the telegraphed bomb and dodges it again. Burns knocks Muhammad back with his right, only for Muhammad to step in front of him and connect with a one-two. Burns swings and misses with two missiles that are right hands, with his left completely out of the picture in this fight other than as a blocking limb. They both trade heavy fire, and Muhammad darts out of harm’s way when Burns looks to reach him. When the 10-second clapper sounds, Muhammad kicks high and then aims one to the body, and the disappointing 25-minute affair comes to a merciful conclusion. The two immediately hug it out after the bell rings, and Muhammad should finally have done enough to earn a crack at the 170-pound throne.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (49-46 Muhammad)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (50-45 Muhammad)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (49-46 Muhammad)
The Official Result
Belal Muhammad def. Gilbert Burns via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
Angelo picks Belal Muhammad, citing his wrestling pressure and improved striking. He notes that Gilbert Burns is coming off a quick turnaround (fought three weeks ago) and that fighters in that situation often lose. Angelo believes Belal's wrestling pace will overwhelm Burns, and he questions Burns' submission threat off his back. He has a quarter unit on Belal at +105, noting the line has tightened from Burns being a big favorite.
Big Brady picks Muhammad in this five-round fight. He believes Burns is the better striker early with more power, but Muhammad's cardio, pressure, and volume will wear Burns down in the later rounds. He notes Burns has questionable cardio and chin, and Muhammad has excellent takedown defense and get-up game. He predicts Muhammad will weather the early storm and finish Burns late, possibly by fourth-round TKO.
Cody emphasizes that the five-round format heavily favors Belal Muhammad's proven cardio and durability over Gilbert Burns, who has questionable gas tank. He notes Belal's high ring IQ, ability to adjust game plans (lateral movement vs Luque, forward pressure vs Brady), and that Burns' recent wins are over older or less dangerous opponents. He expects Belal to survive early rounds and take over late, making the underdog line attractive.
Connor also picks Muhammad, agreeing that Burns is uncomfortable under pressure and that Muhammad's jab will be key. He notes that Muhammad is a smart fighter who sticks to his game plan and that Burns' wrestling may not be a decisive factor. Connor expresses concern about Muhammad's short notice but trusts his conditioning.
The host picks Belal Muhammad, citing his pace, pressure, and cardio as key advantages over Gilbert Burns. He believes Muhammad's grappling-heavy style, similar to Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington, will wear down Burns, who has cardio issues. He expects Muhammad to finish Burns in the fourth or fifth round, and notes that the plus 120 odds look easy.
Paul initially leaned toward Gilbert Burns but changed his mind after realizing the fight is five rounds, which makes the line more reasonable. He notes Burns' quick turnaround and Belal's experience fighting after Ramadan without issue. He says he's 'leaning ever so slightly towards Belal' because of the five rounds, but thinks the market has it right and it's a close fight.
The Guru confidently picks Burns, citing his peak physical condition from fighting frequently and his power advantage on the feet. He believes Burns will set traps and land big shots as Belal comes forward, and that Belal's takedowns won't worry Burns due to his jiu-jitsu. He also questions Belal's mindset and weight cut, noting Belal's complaints and inconsistent weight claims. He predicts a TKO via right hand against the cage.
Zane picks Muhammad, emphasizing that Burns tends to destruct under pressure and that Muhammad's jab-centric striking is a great weapon against Burns' catch-and-counter style. He notes that Muhammad is adaptable and well-prepared, and that Burns' recent performance against Masvidal was uninspiring. Zane also mentions that the five-round fight favors Muhammad's cardio and pressure.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 42 of 99 | 42% | 72 of 135 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 5:41 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 39 of 91 | 42% | 77 of 130 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gilbert Burns | 0 | 13 of 39 | 33% | 15 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 20 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Gilbert Burns | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 27 of 40 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 32 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 3 | Gilbert Burns | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 30 of 53 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 25 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns | 42 of 99 | 42% | 34 of 84 | 3 of 7 | 5 of 8 | 37 of 90 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 39 of 91 | 42% | 14 of 61 | 8 of 11 | 17 of 19 | 38 of 90 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gilbert Burns | 13 of 39 | 33% | 7 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 15 of 38 | 39% | 5 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 10 | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gilbert Burns | 7 of 16 | 43% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 5 of 11 | 45% | 1 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gilbert Burns | 22 of 44 | 50% | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 19 of 42 | 45% | 8 of 29 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 8 | 19 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Burns (-490), Masvidal (+390)
Round 1
The loudest pop of the evening almost certainly goes to Miami’s own Masvidal (35-16, 12-9 UFC), who walks out to this tough stylistic matchup as a heavy underdog on a losing streak. In his face for a maximum of three rounds will be “Durinho” Burns (21-5, 14-5 UFC), who can present problems on the feet and ground, depending on where his mood takes him. Action is virtually a guarantee here, and the watchful eye of referee Marc Goddard looks on. With ample respect, the gloves get touched when Goddard brings them together. There is no flying knee try from Masvidal, for those expecting him to come out firing this. Burns walks forward, but Masvidal takes the center of the cage. The two are hesitant to engage with little more than jabs, other than a single low kick from “Gamebred.” Burns throws one back, and they proceed to go tit-for-tat with these slapping strikes. Chants for “305” and “Let’s Go Jorge” rain down, but it does not spur the local fighter into action. Burns whiffs on a left hook, and neither man seems willing to commit to anything of note. Burns reaches out with a few jabs that miss the mark, but a right hand splits the guard and draws a smile from his opponent. Burns darts in with a straight right, and Masvidal slides out of the way and resets. Masvidal blitzes suddenly with three punches and a leg kick, and the crowd goes wild. Masvidal sinks another kick home on the lead calf, and Burns replies with a leg kick and one to the ribs. Masvidal sticks his tongue out, and Burns attacks with a pair of looping, blocked punches. Burns ducks a big punch and nearly takes the fight down, but Masvidal moves out of the way before he gets tripped. The Brazilian lands a single kick to the body, and he switches stances a few times and catches Masvidal with a right hand. Masvidal connects with another leg kick, and Burns chops down low. Masvidal surges into action, throwing a few heavy punches, but a left hand from Burns keeps him honest. Burns loops a right hand around the guard, and Masvidal shakes it off and pins three punches on the guard. Burns cracks him with a serious right hand, and Masvidal waves him on. Burns slings a right hand, changes levels and throws Masvidal to the ground. Burns postures up, flailing punches, and Masvidal goes crazy throwing offense from his back. The round ends, and the two high five.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Round 2
The second round opens up with Burns pushing forth a jab, and he slams his fist onto Masvidal’s jaw and knocks him off his feet. Masvidal jumps back to his feet, but Burns meets him with a double. When Masvidal defends with a guillotine, Burns simply lifts him off the ground like a sack of flour and slams him down to the ground. Burns lands in the guard and Masvidal is quickly warned for punches to the back of the head. Burns maintains heavy top pressure while getting off occasional strikes, but Goddard asks him to do more. Masvidal hangs on in hopes of forcing a standup, and Burns is unable to get off much offense from above. Goddard again tells Burns to work, and Masvidal clings to him to shut it down. Burns slashes down with a single elbow, and Masvidal works his way to put his head and neck against the wire. Burns partially stands up to step over, but Masvidal wall-walks at the same time and somersaults to break the grip. This backfires, as Burns takes his back and hangs onto it while Masvidal stands. Burns slams “Gamebred” on his face in a subsequent takedown, and Masvidal leans up against the wall and even threatens the BJJ world champion with a guillotine choke. Burns completely ignores it, and Masvidal manages to fight back to his feet. Burns presses him tightly in the clinch, and Masvidal spins him around and knees him a few times. Burns turns him back around, and he gets pushed back to split them up with 30 seconds to spare. Masvidal wings an inaccurate right hand, and he plants his shin on the body. Burns runs at him with his hands flying, and they both clash together with right hands. Burns acknowledges it, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Round 3
The fighters touch ‘em up to open the final frame, and Burns puts his foot upside the head. Masvidal shrugs it off and chops the calf with a single strike. The crowd puts its support behind the local competitor, and Burns punches him square in the face with his right hand. Masvidal blocks a lunging right hook but eats a pair of jabs. Masvidal gets off a strong low kick, and he comes up short on an uppercut. The leg kicks continue working for “Gamebred,” whose offense is otherwise generally muted. Masvidal suddenly spins with a back kick to the body, and Burns steps through it and snipes Masvidal with a left. Burns lands another, and Masvidal smiles at him. Burns lands a one-two on the chin, and Masvidal wobbles back to the fence and waves Burns on. A home run of a right hand skims off the chin, and Masvidal is still rocked but survives it. Masvidal gets some space and appears to have the cobwebs shaken out, as he puts a one-two on the Brazilian’s jaw. Burns lets his hands fly and smashes Masvidal in the face, and Masvidal again stumbles back to the fence. Burns jabs instead of falling into a Masvidal trap, so Masvidal kicks his foe’s lead leg and flashes out his own jab. Burns lands a left and a right, and “Gamebred” toughs it out and gets Burns’ respect with a few punches. The Brazilian changes levels in pursuit of a takedown, and Masvidal stands him up. Burns continues to go after it, and he trips Masvidal and throws him on his back, where he lands in side control. Burns slams Masvidal in the face with elbows, and he moves to half guard to keep Masvidal pinned to the mat. Burns considers an arm-triangle choke, but Masvidal uses two-on-one wrist control to stifle it. Masvidal is warned for grabbing inside the gloves, and Burns slides around to nearly take the back. Masvidal works to his knees, and the fight comes to a close. After the scores are read, Burns calls for a title shot. Masvidal, however, takes his gloves off and calls it a career after "20 long years."
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)
The Official Result
Gilbert Burns def. Jorge Masvidal via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Gilbert Burns but is not betting due to the steep -450 odds. He notes that Masvidal has solid takedown defense and good hands, and if the fight stays on the feet, Masvidal is the better striker. He thinks Burns will grind out a win but is wary of Masvidal's ability to defend takedowns and potentially win a decision in his hometown.
Big Brady picks Gilbert Burns to win by decision, citing his wrestling advantage and Masvidal's age. He notes Burns should take the fight to the mat and control Masvidal, who has good takedown defense but can be controlled once taken down. He does not see a finish and warns against betting at -500 odds.
Cody picks Burns but is hesitant at -450. He notes Masvidal is very difficult to take down, as shown in five-round fights against Usman and Covington. Cody thinks Burns wins 8 out of 10 times but sees value on Masvidal due to the Florida crowd and Masvidal's power. He mentions PrizePicks under 2.5 takedowns for Burns as a potential play because Burns might not wrestle or could get a quick submission.
Connor picks Burns because Masvidal has regressed significantly: his boxing has become sloppy, he relies on trick shots that he's no longer fast enough to land, and he lets opponents dictate the fight. Burns is aggressive, assertive, and will take full advantage of Masvidal's tendency to back up and corner himself. Connor notes that Masvidal used to be a great scrambler and wrestler, but now he seems to hate grappling and makes poor decisions. He also mentions Masvidal's ego and age have eroded his game.
Jacob is extremely confident in Gilbert Burns, calling Masvidal overrated and saying he is here to collect a check. He believes Burns will take Masvidal down, slam him, and submit him. He notes that Masvidal has only defended wrestlers like Usman and Colby, but Burns is a powerful grappler who will use strength and technique to finish the fight.
Masvidal is on a three-fight losing streak but those were against the division's elite. He has slick boxing, deceptive power, and excellent takedown defense and get-up game. Burns is a BJJ specialist but his striking is decent, and he doesn't have the cardio or wrestling to replicate what Colby did to Masvidal. I think Masvidal's striking advantage and the Miami crowd will carry him to a knockout win.
Paul acknowledges the best version of Masvidal could beat Burns, but believes Masvidal at 38 has lost a step and lacks the fire. He notes Masvidal's takedown defense is good but Burns' pressure and wrestling should wear him down. Paul expects Burns to take Masvidal down, control rounds, and win a decision or late finish. He cautions that Masvidal could keep it close in Florida but ultimately picks Burns.
The MMA Guru picks Gilbert Burns to drop Masvidal in round one and submit him with an arm triangle. He expects Masvidal to lead with kicks, and Burns will time a right hand over the top, dropping Masvidal. Burns will then take mount, land big shots, and as Masvidal scrambles, he will give up an arm triangle and tap with 30 seconds left in the round.
Zane picks Burns because Masvidal's game has fallen off: he's slower, gasses now, and his boxing is worse. He used to be a well-rounded technician, but now he looks for highlight-reel shots and doesn't have the speed for them. Burns will out-grapple him and doesn't even need to do that the whole time; he can just pressure Masvidal, who backs up too easily and corners himself. Zane notes that Masvidal's ego and age have combined to make him a shadow of his former self.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gilbert Burns | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns | 5 of 6 | 83% | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Neil Magny | 4 of 11 | 36% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gilbert Burns | 5 of 6 | 83% | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Neil Magny | 4 of 11 | 36% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Burns (-410), Magny (+330)
Round 1
Welterweights with a lot at stake invade the Octagon next, as former title challenger Burns (20-5, 13-5 UFC) looks to get back on the right track against the UFC welterweight division’s all-time wins leader Magny (27-9, 20-8 UFC). At 36 and 35 years of age, respectively, the time is now for these two to go on a run, lest they get left behind for the young guns nipping at their heels. This 170-pound “featured fight of the night” scrap will have referee Fernando Portella keeping tabs, and it begins with hands clapping together. The two hesitantly approach one another, and Magny uses his range to disallow Burns from coming at him. This strategy does not stay intact for long, as Burns closes in to whip a high body kick under the elbow. Burns chambers his big right hand without throwing it for a prolonged stretch, and he rushes forward and only lands a jab. The right hand from Burns is chained right into a level change, and he scoops Magny off the ground and slams him to the mat without batting an eye. The Brazilian shifts straight into half guard when landing, although the veteran Magny drags him back to his guard. Burns aims to jump into the mount, and opts to move to side control when Magny’s long legs give him issues. Magny leans to his side, and Burns hooks his left arm behind the neck and right arm beneath Magny’s left knee to pass. Burns passes to the other side, and he presses his shoulder down in a potential arm-triangle setup. "Durinho" slices over to full mount, as the crowd cheers in unison for his success. Burns again flirts with an arm-triangle, but bails on it to lock Magny’s right arm down in a potential keylock. Burns suddenly presses his full body weight down and steps to the side brilliantly for an arm-triangle choke, and he locks it up in an instant even with his side against the cage wall. Magny knows there is nothing more he can do, and he reaches his arm straight out and then taps out. Burns made that look easy, putting away a respected veteran while barely breaking a sweat. In the process, he also pulled off his first submission since returning to welterweight in 2019.
The Official Result
Gilbert Burns def. Neil Magny R1 4:15 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Big Brady is confident Burns will submit Magny in the first round. He notes Burns is a wizard on the mat with elite BJJ, while Magny has poor takedown defense (57%) and has been submitted five times. Burns will take the fight down easily and finish. On the feet, Magny has a reach advantage but Burns has more power. He expects a first-round submission.
Cody picks Gilbert Burns confidently, believing Burns should win two rounds and coast in the third. He notes Burns' pressure, wrestling, and Jiu-Jitsu are key, and that Magny's long limbs are a disadvantage on the ground. He acknowledges Burns' cardio and chin concerns but thinks the Brazilian crowd and Burns' recent form (Chimaev fight) will carry him. He says Burns' path to victory is takedowns and control.
Connor agrees with Zane, stating that Burns is a nightmare matchup for Magny. He notes that Magny has improved his jab and pressure, but Burns is a souped-up version of the fighters who have troubled Magny before. Connor believes Burns can take Magny down or beat him in the clinch, and that Magny's only path is a lucky shot.
Paul picks Gilbert Burns but with some hesitation. He notes Burns' cardio and durability issues, but thinks Burns' pressure, wrestling, and Jiu-Jitsu will be too much for Magny. He mentions Magny's good cardio and ring IQ but says Burns is the better fighter. He warns that Burns could gas out or get caught, but overall expects Burns to win via takedowns and top control.
The Guru picks Burns but calls it his least confident pick on the card. He notes Magny's reach advantage and straight punches could trouble Burns, who struggles with range. However, Burns has offensive takedowns and Magny makes mistakes defending them. The Guru predicts Burns will find a submission (rear-naked choke or arm triangle) or TKO via ground and pound. He worries about the style matchup but trusts Burns' grappling.
Zane picks Burns, calling it a 'miserable matchup' for Magny. He notes that Magny historically struggles against powerful strikers, technical top-position grapplers, and freak athletes—Burns is all three. Zane highlights Burns' toughness, power, and well-rounded game, and believes Magny's only chance is to be super aggressive and hope for a miracle.
Stephen Thompson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 42 of 92 | 45% | 78 of 135 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:28 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 0 | 40 of 72 | 55% | 55 of 93 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 5:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 6 of 24 | 25% | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:11 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 17 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 | |
| 2 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 29 of 47 | 61% | 37 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 0 | 16 of 30 | 53% | 16 of 30 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 | |
| 3 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 32 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 22 of 35 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Thompson | 42 of 92 | 45% | 21 of 61 | 14 of 20 | 7 of 11 | 37 of 83 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 4 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 40 of 72 | 55% | 12 of 36 | 5 of 6 | 23 of 30 | 34 of 65 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Thompson | 6 of 24 | 25% | 1 of 13 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 2 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 14 of 24 | 58% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 11 of 16 | 14 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Stephen Thompson | 29 of 47 | 61% | 18 of 35 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 16 of 30 | 53% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 | 16 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Stephen Thompson | 7 of 21 | 33% | 2 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 10 of 18 | 55% | 2 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bonfim (-380); Thompson (+310)
Round 1
The final two battles will have the betting favorite of each 15 years younger than their respective underdog. Former title challenger Thompson (17-8-1, 12-8-1 UFC) knows at the age of 42, his time at welterweight is running out. Meanwhile, at 27, Bonfim (17-1, 4-1 UFC) is ready for his meteoric rise. Depending on the Brazilian’s strategy, a number of different types of fights could play out. Like referee Blake Grice, we will see how this interesting stylistic clash plays out shortly. They sportingly clap hands.
Thompson strikes first with a low calf kick. He goes to the same spot again, and Bonfim answers him back three times. They keep chopping at one another until Thompson kicks high. Thompson tries a spin kick that buzzes past his target, and Bonfim stays composed working on the lead leg. Bonfim brushes the side with a kick, and Thompson kicks him back much harder. Bonfim is quick to get in and out with his speedy kicks, allowing him to dodge a side kick aimed at his face. Thompson does not budge or flinch at what is offered at him, allowing Bonfim to chip away at his calf because it is primarily his only weapon. Bonfim shoots, a full-throated double, and he grasps Thompson from behind, lifts him up and slams him down. Thompson works his way back to his feet, and Bonfim chucks him right back down like a side of beef.
Bonfim starts to pursue a rear-naked choke, and he climbs on the back of “Wonderboy” and forces him to lower himself to a knee. Bonfim only has a face crank, but he is squeezing with all of his might as he is still relatively fresh. Thompson breaks free, and the crowd erupts as Thompson starts beating on Bonfim. Bonfim still works his way back to his feet, ignoring the short knees aimed at his torso to lean on the karateka. Thompson breaks out of the tie-up and grins, and he is quick to launch a head kick at the Brazilian. Thompson walks his foe down, landing a body kick and potshotting him with distant strikes. Bonfim reaches him with a left hook, and a second when Thompson is backing up wobbles Thompson briefly. “Wonderboy” checks a calf kick, and he kicks high while Bonfim spins. They collide legs together, and then smile and high-five as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
Round 2
Bonfim forgets his mouthpiece between rounds, and he is able to replace it before they get started. Thompson is able to stay at a safe enough range, just missing with a hook kick but scoring his calf kick. Bonfim’s head kick slaps off Thompson’s hand, and he changes levels and shoots for a double, which turns quickly into a single. Thompson defends by pushing off the fence and the back of Bonfim’s neck to shut it down. Thompson gets free, and he is free to kick before marching in with two straight punches. He checks a kick, and a second lands. Bonfim intercepts a blitzing Thompson with a hard left hook, but Thompson’s chin holds up just fine as he digs a kick to the ribs. Thompson kicks it a little higher to slam into the raised guard, and he dances out of the way of the swinging Brazilian.
Thompson is able to kick intercept his opponent, his hands still low as can be as he spins with a wheel kick. Bonfim times a takedown shot, and it fails. A second attempt allows Bonfim to get Thompson down for a second, but Thompson bounces back upright with the fence at his side. Bonfim clings to his opponent and takes away all of his weapons, frustrating the crowd and his opponent equally. Thompson frames off with his knee and gets out with 80 seconds to spare. He jabs the body, avoids a left hook and comes back with his own overhand right. Bonfim presses forward, walking into a side kick and taking a head kick clean on the side of the dome. Bonfim takes it like a champ and keeps plodding forward, drilling Thompson in the chin with a stiff right hand. Thompson shakes his head and spins with a kick that Bonfim sees coming. Bonfim knocks Thompson off his feet with a left hand after kicking Thompson’s shin so hard it splits open. Thompson bounces off the floor and pushes through the pain to clobber Bonfim with a massive head kick. Bonfim’s balance nearly gives way, and he blasts him with a second to further hurt him. Thompson tries to finish the job, and Bonfim desperately goes for a takedown he cannot get. Before he gets his finish, the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Round 3
The welterweights hug it out to get going, but the mean streak of Bonfim does not go anywhere. Thompson kicks Bonfim in the head several times, slamming into the guard or the side of the head indiscriminately. Blood pours out of the open wound on Thompson’s shin, which leaves Thompson with a slight bloody footprint bouncing around the cage. Bonfim tries to grapple his opponent, resulting in a clinch but no takedown. Instead, he uses heel strikes to pound at the gash on “Wonderboy.” The commentary booth is not amused. When they separate, Thompson looks at his shin and goes “whew,” but promptly throws a head kick from that wounded limb. Bonfim tries to stop the strikes from coming by going after another takedown, and Thompson breaks off much faster this time as he turns Bonfim around on the fence.
The karateka knows his best chance of victory is with his legs, and he brushes the Brazilian’s hair with a wheel kick. Thompson grins and Bonfim smiles back. Thompson blasts Bonfim in the dome about as hard as one possibly can, and the Brazilian tanks it and even tries to offer back his own head kick. Bonfim shoots for a double, putting Thompson on his seat as the crowd rejects his approach and lets him have it. Bonfim hangs on to “Wonderboy” and takes an elbow on the side of the noggin for good measure. Bonfim continues to cling to his adversary rather than do anything more with his position, and Grice asks for them to do something. Thompson spins his man around for a second, but Bonfim is able to leverage him back to a knee. Thompson hits a trip and nearly puts Bonfim down, and Bonfim stands and leans as the fight ends in the clinch. It could go either way, which is something not too many people expected.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson (29-28 Thompson)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Thompson (29-28 Thompson)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Thompson (29-28 Thompson)
The Official Result
Gabriel Bonfim def. Stephen Thompson via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Gabriel Bonfim, expecting him to get frustrated with Thompson's range and shoot takedowns, which will be successful due to Thompson's poor takedown defense. He notes Thompson is 42 and was just knocked out, while Bonfim is a finisher with good wrestling and jiu-jitsu. He thinks the odds are justified.
Big Brady believes Gabriel Bonfim is getting Stephen Thompson at the right time. He notes Thompson is 42, has been finished in his last two losses, and can be taken down. Bonfim has power on the feet and is an opportunistic submission artist. He expects Bonfim to take Thompson down and submit him early, picking a first-round submission.
Connor picks Bonfim confidently, stating that Thompson at 42 no longer has the speed or counter-wrestling to survive a blitz. He notes that Bonfim is fast, dynamic, and can change gears quickly, and that once he takes Thompson down, he will likely finish him quickly. Connor acknowledges that Thompson may make Bonfim look silly for a few minutes, but he cannot sustain it.
The host notes that Thompson is 42 and relies on speed and reflexes, while Bonfim is younger and more dangerous. He believes Bonfim can compete with Thompson on the feet and eventually drag the fight to the ground to find a submission within two rounds. The pick is based on Bonfim's youth and grappling advantage.
The MMA Guru picks Gabriel Bonfim, noting he is a -410 favorite. He argues that Stephen Thompson's counter-striking style allows opponents to implement their game, and Bonfim's grappling and size advantage will be key. He expects Bonfim to shoot takedowns, chain them, and submit Thompson in the first or second round, comparing it to his submission of Chaos Williams. He dismisses Thompson's takedown defense as underrated but believes Bonfim's relentless grappling will prevail.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Bonfim because Thompson has reverted to a gutsy slugger who can't wrestle, and Bonfim's speed and dynamic grappling will overwhelm him. He notes that Bonfim will likely take Thompson down and finish him, as seen in the Chaos Williams fight. Zane calls the matchup 'slightly cruel but necessary' for Thompson's career stage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 49 of 106 | 46% | 63 of 121 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Stephen Thompson | 1 | 34 of 93 | 36% | 55 of 117 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 4:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 6 of 26 | 23% | 16 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 28 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 20 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 | |
| 3 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stephen Thompson | 1 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 19 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 49 of 106 | 46% | 38 of 93 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 36 of 90 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 1 |
| Stephen Thompson | 34 of 93 | 36% | 23 of 78 | 9 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 28 of 82 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 15 of 28 | 53% | 12 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 6 of 26 | 23% | 5 of 21 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 22 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 22 of 45 | 48% | 18 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 34 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 1 |
| Stephen Thompson | 12 of 33 | 36% | 8 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Joaquin Buckley | 12 of 33 | 36% | 8 of 27 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 16 of 34 | 47% | 10 of 28 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 29 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-198), Thompson (+164)
Round 1
It’s a striker’s delight to cap off the prelims, when former welterweight title challenger and famed karateka Thompson (17-7-1, 12-7-1 UFC) looks for one more W before hanging things up altogether. He will come up against a man in Buckley (19-6, 9-4 UFC) who is 11 years his junior, and loves throwing kicks just as much as “Wonderboy.” Before feet meet face, referee Mike Beltran clocks them in, and the combatants bump fists. Buckley moves directly to the center of the cage and starts pressuring the older fighter, and he is still out of range. Buckley swarms his opponent, gets caught with a right hand and lifts “Wonderboy” up with a double to slam him down. Thompson wall-walks to get up after a few seconds, and chants for “Wonderboy” boom deafeningly throughout the Delta Center. Buckley lands an elbow on the inside to break off, and when they split, Thompson kicks his man in the head. Thompson blitzes with a three-punch salvo, knocking Buckley off-balance. When Buckley gathers himself to advance, Thompson is prepared and he drills Buckley upside the head. Buckley crashes the pocket, leading with his head, and he pushes Thompson back with a flurry of fists. Thompson bounces off the fence to reset, tagging Buckley with a body kick and catching him with a right hand. Buckley responds with a single, lifting Thompson’s right leg up but not putting him down. Buckley lands a few punches on the inside before Thompson skirts away, with the karateka scoring on the break. Thompson backs off and connects with a right hand counter, and blood leaks from a cut on the corner of Buckley’s right eye. Buckley rushes at his foe to close in, getting clipped and pushing through it to surge forward and take the fight down. Thompson defends with elbows to the side of the head and fights his way back up without much effort. Buckley tries to hold him against the fence, but Thompson splits off and does not take much on the break. Buckley lunges, landing at the end of his punches, and Thompson shakes them off and is ready to counter. Buckley whiffs when leaping forward, and he gets kicked low and high. Buckley shoots desperately for a takedown, eats an uppercut to push through it, and he tries a second attempt but cannot get the former title challenger down. The horn sound with them in the clinch.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Round 2
Thompson reintroduces himself to start off the round with long jabs. Buckley pressures, but he walks face-first into strikes. Thompson splits the guard with a front kick and just misses with an axe kick and a wheel kick, and he scoots away to bounce off the fencing. Buckley gets off a right hand, and Thompson defends by backing off, countering with his own right and setting up several elbows when Buckley shoots. Buckley cannot hold his foe against the cage, and Thompson is able to free himself and get to his preferred distance. Thompson sticks out a lead right hand and backs off, and Buckley times a takedown to take him off his feet. Thompson climbs up with the fence behind him, and he splits up and lands two punches on the break. They trade low kicks, and Buckley’s head kick is easily blocked. Thompson beats Buckley to the punch with two right hands, but Buckley sits down on a final right hand. Buckley comes up short with a high kick, and Thompson prods out a front kick as fans again cheer loudly for him. Thompson splits the guard with a right hand, and he lands a second only to get clipped on the way back. Buckley lunges and catches Thompson a second time before wrapping his hands around Thompson’s waist to wrest him to the mat. Thompson returns to a knee and pops back up, not settling for getting grounded. In the clinch, Buckley knees his man square in the groin. Thompson tells Beltran after a 15-second break he is good to go, and Beltran tells Buckley to be careful before restarting. Thompson leads off with a pair of kicks from his lead leg, and he swats out with a low kick before backing off from a Buckley blitz. Buckley whiffs on a haymaker and a cartwheel kick, and he walks into two sharp, long right hands. The fighters clack heads as they engage, and Thompson is light on his feet to counter a swarming Buckley as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Round 3
There is one final clap of hands to get started, and Thompson picks up where he left off potshotting. Buckley loads up on a right hand, and he gets his hands on Thompson and catches him with a left. Thompson bounces away, and Buckley goes wild, bursting his way forward throwing caution to the wind. Thompson stays composed and fires off a head kick that is barely blocked in time, and he is met by a charging Buckley. Thompson spins out of the tie-up and rests, sticking Buckley with a right hand and eating one when escaping. Thompson has two strikes blocked before a head kick zooms at him, and he puts out three punches and a body kick before Buckley can give him anything back. Thompson dings him with a right hook and puts up a high guard to defend against a similar strike, and he whips a kick up and rattles Buckley’s noodle.
“New Mansa” shakes his head, and he springs forward to attack, lashing out with a right hook that misses, ducking a counter and launching a missile of a right hand that explodes square on the chin of the karateka. The destructive blow face-plants Thompson, and Beltran sprints in to get between them before Buckley can land anything else.
It only took one from the highlight-reel machine, and any debate about scores is wiped clean off the map. Thompson needs a moment to compose himself, wobbly on the feet, but he comes to and gives it up for the victorious Buckley. This is a massive win for Buckley, who vaults into title contention after punching out “Wonderboy,” and he uses his time on the mic well by calling out Kamaru Usman for an eliminator matchup.
The Official Result
Joaquin Buckley def. Stephen Thompson R3 2:17 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley, citing his speed, power, and improved wrestling. He notes Stephen Thompson is 41 and has historically struggled against wrestlers. He believes Buckley will use blast doubles to take Thompson down and grind out a win, though he acknowledges Thompson could catch him with a counter. He also mentions Buckley's recent controversial behavior but thinks this is his opportunity to win back fans.
Big Brady picks Stephen Thompson as an underdog, arguing that Buckley's wrestling is not on the level of the few fighters who have successfully taken Thompson down (Shavkat, Burns, Belal). He believes Thompson will out-strike Buckley, similar to his performances against Kevin Holland, Geoff Neal, and Vicente Luque, and win a decision.
Cody picks Buckley, emphasizing his wrestling and power. He notes that Thompson's speed declines with age and that Buckley can mix takedowns with striking. He believes Buckley can either grind out a decision or land a knockout.
Connor argues that Buckley's wrestling is the key to victory. He notes that Thompson has lost his ancillary MMA skills and relies solely on his karate, which is automatic but not enough to stop Buckley's takedowns and top control. Buckley has shown effective wrestling in recent wins, and Thompson's lack of recent finishes and durability issues make Buckley the clear pick.
Daniel Vreeland is confident in Joaquin Buckley, having bet on him. He believes Buckley's improved footwork and timing of blast double legs will be key to taking down Stephen Thompson. Vreeland notes that Thompson has shown vulnerability to wrestling, as seen in the Shavkat Rakhmonov fight where he didn't fight hands. He expects Buckley to ground and pound for a TKO or submission.
The host notes the blueprint to beat Wonderboy at this stage is to grapple him and keep him on his back. He expects Buckley to get the fight to the ground promptly and use his top-heavy approach to grind out a win on the scorecards, referencing Buckley's recent performance against taller opponents.
Paul picks Buckley, citing his recent wrestling improvements against Nurlan Akhmetov. He thinks Buckley must use takedowns to avoid a kickboxing match with Thompson. He expects a decision win for Buckley.
The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley to beat Stephen Thompson, citing Buckley's takedown threat and lateral movement. He notes Thompson is a linear striker who struggles against fighters who move side to side, and Buckley's crashing style will negate Thompson's range. He predicts a second-round TKO, as Buckley will find takedowns and ground-and-pound. He also mentions Thompson's age (41) and potential retirement.
Zane agrees that Buckley's wrestling will be decisive. He highlights that Thompson's striking is still sharp but Buckley's physicality and tireless pressure, combined with his improved top control, will overwhelm Thompson. Zane also notes that Buckley could finish via TKO if he maintains top position.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 28 of 36 | 77% | 73 of 88 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 2 | 0 | 7:45 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 16 of 25 | 64% | 26 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 25 of 34 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:25 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 14 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 16 of 16 | 100% | 48 of 54 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 4:20 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 28 of 36 | 77% | 24 of 31 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | 10 of 15 | 13 of 13 |
| Stephen Thompson | 16 of 25 | 64% | 6 of 15 | 7 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 12 of 20 | 60% | 9 of 16 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 10 of 14 | 71% | 3 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 16 of 16 | 100% | 15 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 13 |
| Stephen Thompson | 6 of 11 | 54% | 3 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, calling it a 'spite matchup' by the UFC. He believes Shavkat's wrestling and finishing ability will be too much for the 40-year-old Thompson, who has historically lost to heavy grapplers. He includes Shavkat in his 'anti-40 parlay'.
Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by second-round TKO, calling it a stylistic nightmare for Stephen Thompson. He highlights Rakhmonov's 100% finish rate (17 finishes), vicious ground and pound, and submission threat. Brady notes Thompson's poor takedown defense and age (40), contrasting with Rakhmonov's youth and wrestling ability. He expects Rakhmonov to take Thompson down and finish with ground strikes, similar to Belal Muhammad's near-TKO of Thompson.
Cody picks Rakhmonov but is hesitant due to the -650 price. He notes that Rakhmonov's wrestling was ineffective against Jeff Neal (0 for 4 takedowns) and that Thompson's movement and length could cause problems. However, he believes the takedown threat will be there and that Rakhmonov is younger and improving. He says he has no intention of betting the fight because the line is too high.
Daniel Vreeland picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, emphasizing that Thompson is past his prime and no longer has the power or speed to keep Rakhmonov at range. He notes that Rakhmonov is not afraid to close distance and will be better in the clinch, on the ground, and in the pocket. Vreeland doubts that 40-year-old Thompson can fight a gritty fight or survive Rakhmonov's pressure.
Jeff Fox picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, stating that Rakhmonov is a killer and Thompson is an old fighter who will take a beating. He notes that Rakhmonov is better everywhere the fight goes. Fox also mentions that Thompson's win over Kevin Holland was cumulative, not a big knockout, and that Thompson's current outfighting style won't work against Rakhmonov.
Lucrative James is confident Shavkat Rakhmonov will finish Stephen Thompson inside the distance. He believes Shavkat's pressure, clinch strikes, and takedowns will be too much for Thompson, who he thinks will get tired and cut up. He notes that Belal Muhammad almost TKO'd Thompson twice on the ground, so he sees a finish by TKO or submission as likely.
The host sees this as a horrible stylistic matchup for Thompson, as Rakhmonov is a strong grappler who will take Thompson down and finish him. He references how Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad ground out Thompson, and believes Rakhmonov is even more dangerous on top. He expects Rakhmonov to get the takedown easily, secure a dominant position, and get a TKO or submission inside the distance. He advises against betting on Thompson even at plus odds.
Paul picks Rakhmonov, believing the takedowns will be there early and often against Thompson. He acknowledges Thompson's takedown defense has been poor against wrestlers like Gilbert Burns and Kevin Holland. Paul thinks Rakhmonov will find submissions or control, though he admits the Jeff Neal fight exposed some flaws. He still sees Rakhmonov as the pick but agrees the price is too high to bet.
The Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov over Stephen Thompson, emphasizing Shavkat's size, strength, and clinch game. He notes that Thompson survived against Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns, but Shavkat's trips and top pressure will be different. He predicts Shavkat will use an outside trip from the clinch, get to half guard, and finish with an arm triangle.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 163 of 260 | 62% | 178 of 278 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 119 of 210 | 56% | 123 of 214 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 34 of 47 | 72% | 38 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 49 of 70 | 70% | 52 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 2 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 38 of 67 | 56% | 40 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 33 of 66 | 50% | 33 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 43 of 76 | 56% | 48 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 25 of 50 | 50% | 25 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 4 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 48 of 70 | 68% | 52 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 13 of 25 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Thompson | 163 of 260 | 62% | 103 of 192 | 42 of 49 | 18 of 19 | 150 of 241 | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 119 of 210 | 56% | 52 of 131 | 23 of 29 | 44 of 50 | 97 of 187 | 22 of 23 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Thompson | 34 of 47 | 72% | 21 of 31 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 31 of 44 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 49 of 70 | 70% | 22 of 39 | 11 of 13 | 16 of 18 | 37 of 57 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Stephen Thompson | 38 of 67 | 56% | 25 of 53 | 10 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 36 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 33 of 66 | 50% | 16 of 45 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 16 | 28 of 61 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Stephen Thompson | 43 of 76 | 56% | 34 of 66 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 41 of 71 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 25 of 50 | 50% | 9 of 32 | 4 of 5 | 12 of 13 | 23 of 48 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Stephen Thompson | 48 of 70 | 68% | 23 of 42 | 18 of 21 | 7 of 7 | 42 of 62 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 12 of 24 | 50% | 5 of 15 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-155), Thompson (+135)
Round 1
Less than two months removed from his UFC 279 co-headliner against Khamzat Chimaev, Holland (23-8, 1 NC; 10-5, 1 NC UFC) is back in action again, this time as the main attraction. Getting back to welterweight after that awkward 180-pound switcheroo, this will be fight number four this year for “Trailblazer” compared to the first in 2022 for Thompson (16-6-1, 11-6-1 UFC). One of these two will turn things around and return to the win column at night’s end, and it could be the recently aged 30-year-old Holland or soon-to-be 40 “Wonderboy.” Referee Dan Miragliotta is on the call for this striker’s delight, and the two men who enjoyed one another’s company greatly this week touch ‘em up to commence the final fight of the night. When Thompson kicks, Holland does too. Holland charges recklessly, forcing Thompson to retreat and attempt to counter. Holland’s forward blitz leads to a clinch, and he starts talking to his opponent to tell him to let him go. Thompson obliges and scores a low kick, and he counters Holland over the top with a right hand. Holland ends up closing in with a clinch when trying to surge forward, and Thompson pushes him away and nails Holland with a serious left hand. Holland shakes it off and reaches out with side kicks, and a blow from Holland has opened a cut on the corner of Thompson’s left eye. Holland comes out throwing caution to the wind and engaging wildly, and Thompson is there to brawl and catch him with quicker strikes. Holland gets blasted with another left hand and grins, and he leaps forward to attack. The lunging strikes from Holland open him up to counters, and Holland grins and runs forward to unleash a ferocious overhand right that rocks the karateka. Holland backs his man up to the wall and starts to do work on him, but Thompson pushes off and shakes out the cobwebs. As Holland re-engages, Thompson meets him with a left hand and a speedy head kick. Holland is thrilled by the exchanges, smiling and having a blast, and Thompson is enjoying himself as well. Holland runs forward with a back fist, and “Wonderboy” knocks him back wit ha left. As Thompson fires off a hook kick, Holland times a chopping kick to knock Thompson to the floor. The former title challenger lines up a left hand that rings Holland’s bell, but Holland no-sells the move and allows Thompson to chase him down. They mimic one another’s side stances, and Thompson is there to catch his advancing opponent. Holland fires off a pair of body kick after sprinting at his man, and Thompson responds in kind. Holland lands a few punches to the body, and the horn sounds. The two welterweights high five after an exciting and fun round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Round 2
The fighters are ready and rearing to go to start off the second round, and they clap hands to initiate the proceedings. Thompson slaps a kick low, and Holland does the same. Thompson skips forward with a straight left hand, but Holland sees it coming and evades it. He does not, however, get out of the way from a high kick that slams him square in the face. Holland takes it on the jaw without budging, a kick that would fell lesser men, and stands firm until Thompson blitzes him. Holland escapes the worse of the damage and tries his own attack, and Thompson escapes in time. Leg kicks are traded fast and furiously, and Holland steps into strike and is countered on the way in. The alternating straight rushes lead to thrilling exchanges, and Thompson boots Holland in the face once more. Thompson pushes the pace and belts Holland with a long series of punches, and Holland fires back but gets rocked and bounces into the wall. Thompson lets him off the hook and does not blow his gas tank, and instead trades head kicks when Holland is ready to come back fighting. Holland counters a body kick with an overhand left, and Thompson checks a low kick. Thompson just misses with a hook kick, and Holland gives chase and walks into two straight punches. “Trailblazer” blazes forward and uses Thompson’s lunges to his advantage and tackles Thompson to the floor. Instead of playing on the ground, Holland stands back up, and invites Thompson to stand back up so they can keep throwing heavy leather. Thompson thanks him for this with a happy glove touch, and he spins with a wheel kick that just pushes past the hair. Thompson doles out a few more solid left hands and head kick, and Holland advances recklessly and puts his hands on his opponent as well. Holland knocks the karateka back and might have hurt him, but Thompson recovers and runs after Holland to lay into him as well. Thompson unleashes a spinning wheel kick that smashes into the head of his foe, and Holland wobbles back as Thompson gives him all he has. Holland tries to throw back with haymakers, and he does enough to make Thompson second-guess his approach. The terrific second frame comes to an end as Holland swings so hard, he falls over.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Round 3
The welterweights are grinning from ear to ear, and they high five. Holland tells Thompson to slow down, and Thompson answers him with a high kick and whiffs with a hook kick. Holland jumps forward to break up the stance of his foe, and he settles for a body kick and one to the calf. Thompson whips a kick to the side, and he goes up top as Holland rolls with it and barely evades the worst of it. Thompson scores two solid left hands as Holland attempts to enter the pocket, and they trade kicks as well. Holland pushes forward to strike, and they fall over with another possible tackling takedown from “Trailblazer.” Thompson fights his way up, and they clap hands as they still do not want to take a breath and grapple. When they resume, Thompson lands a side kick and a second knocks Holland off his feet. Thompson lets him back up as well, and they high-five once more. Holland unleashes a low kick, and Thompson is sharper and more elusive as Holland’s hands go wide. Holland wings a head kick, and Thompson answers with a pair of punches and a spinning kick. A second spinning wheel kick misses the mark by a matter of inches, and Holland crashes forward and gets popped with a short left hook. Holland kicks low and swipes high, and Thompson blitzes him and scores a few times over the top. Holland charges, leading with elbows, and they wind up in a clinch that allows Thompson to knee his man in the side a few times. Thompson breaks free and fires off a few punches, and he reaches Holland at the end of a right hand that knocks the head back. Holland appears to be fading, and the punches from Thompson are doing more damage as he pours it on. Holland backs himself up to the wall, and he keeps a high guard up and takes several deep breaths. Holland comes out swinging, and Thompson meets him there and starts unloading on him. Holland takes everything on the chin, and he eats a spinning wheel kick and barely moves. Thompson keeps a bounce in his step, and he spins with another wheel kick. “Trailblazer” comes forward to strike, but he pulls back with his right hand. As the round ends, he walks away looking at the hand, which might be injured.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Round 4
The championship rounds have arrived, and Holland puts on a poker face and smiles to engage. Thompson starts off with a slapping calf kick, and he pushes off the side of his heel on the chest. When Holland advances, Thompson cracks him with a hook kick, and Holland wears it incredibly well and walks Thompson down to throw hands. A tiring Holland ties Thompson up, and Miragliotta does not need much time before splitting them. Miragliotta does acknowledge that they did clash heads when closing in, which opened up a cut on the bridge of the nose. Thompson splits up and kicks the body, and this liver shot forces an immediate takedown out of his opponent. Holland does not complete it, and Thompson stands back and belts him in the liver one more time. Holland reels and charges for a takedown, and Thompson stops it and stands him up to work on his midsection. Thompson throws a right hand on the beltline, and Holland leans over and Miragliotta waves the fight off. As Holland protests, Miragliotta un-calls the fight and claims it was an accidental groin strike. Holland recovers, whether it was a foul or not, and they resume the action unexpectedly. Thompson knows his man is on the ropes and he kicks the liver twice, and spins with a wheel kick with a heel that drills right into the temple. Holland is hurt but still surviving, throwing a few punches but largely getting wrecked. “Wonderboy” aims two head kicks that do serious damage, and Holland absorbs another spinning wheel kick as Thompson is styling on him. Holland motions for him to come close to him to strike, and Thompson obliges with several punches and a low kick. Thompson fires a side kick to the liver and one to the upper chest, and he is teeing off on the wounded Holland. Holland is little more than a heavy bag at this point, as Thompson takes one or two back for every dozen or so. Thompson swings a spinning wheel kick that nearly knocks “Trailblazer” off his feet, but Holland not only survives, he throws back with a vengeance. Thompson takes several on the jaw and backs off, and he measures his damaged adversary with long kicks and punches. Thompson lines up a left hand that drops Holland to a knee, and he moves into the top position and lands a few punches. Instead of trying to finish the job, Thompson stands up, lets Holland get up, and walks off. The round ends. Holland again walks back to his corner, battered and bruised, and he signals to his team that his right hand is in dire trouble. It does not take more than a few seconds for Holland’s corner to inform Miragliotta that their fighter is done, and they call off the fight. It might seem like an anticlimactic ending to a sensational and dramatic battle, but Holland’s team allows him to live to fight another day. This battle will definitely go down among the greatest fights of this year, with 20 minutes of bloody violence and terrific skill crackling with intensity on display. Jiri Prochazka vs. Glover Teixeira might be challenged for the top spot after this titanic scrap.
In his post-fight interview, “Wonderboy” says he feels 25, and he is in it for the long haul. At 39 years young after a fight like that, Thompson proves he is still a factor in the welterweight division. It’s anyone’s guess what is next for the all-star karateka, as he showed he has plenty of life left in his veins. When he competes again, we will certainly be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Thompson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Thompson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Thompson
The Official Result
Stephen Thompson def. Kevin Holland R4 5:00 via TKO (Corner Stoppage)
Angelo picks Stephen Thompson but is hesitant due to Thompson's age (39). He thinks Thompson is the better overall striker with incredible footwork, but notes the fight is basically a pick'em, so he won't bet the moneyline. He plans to wait for props, possibly betting Kevin Holland inside the distance or decision no action, because Holland is younger and dangerous. He expects Thompson to win but won't risk moneyline on a 39-year-old.
Big Brady picks Holland to win by knockout in the second or third round, citing Holland's youth (nine years younger), height, reach, power, durability, and Thompson's age (39) and layoff. He notes Thompson has been knocked down multiple times and Holland has never been knocked out. He also mentions Holland may mix in takedowns.
Cody agrees with Paul and provides extensive reasoning. He highlights that Holland's path to victory is to fight in a way he never does, while Thompson's karate style, output, and five-round experience favor him. He notes Thompson's takedown defense is a weakness but doubts Holland will exploit it. He also mentions the line moving towards Holland as a reason to take Thompson now.
Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland to knock out Stephen Thompson. He notes Thompson's age (approaching 40), suspect chin, and history of being dropped (by Ellenberger, Woodley, Till). He believes Holland's straight right will find the opening and that Holland closes the show when he hurts opponents. He also mentions Thompson's submission defense is good but that Holland's reach and power are key.
The host leans towards Thompson, noting that Thompson is a superior striker and should have the advantage in a striking match. He mentions that Thompson's karate style and ability to hit without getting hit will be key. However, he is cautious about Thompson's age and the possibility of Holland using grappling. He would prefer a better price on Thompson (plus 150) before betting.
Paul sees this as a 50/50 fight but likes Thompson at plus money. He notes Thompson's five-round experience and thinks Holland won't shoot takedowns effectively. He believes Thompson can edge out a decision or even finish if Holland gets frustrated. He also mentions the under 4.5 rounds as a possibility.
The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland, citing Thompson's lack of a backup plan if he faces trouble on the feet. He notes Holland can mix in grappling and has a reach advantage. He predicts Holland will use his goofy style to catch Thompson off guard and finish him by d'arce choke in round three.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 0 | 19 of 32 | 59% | 51 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 58 of 95 | 61% | 171 of 271 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 1 | 0 | 11:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 28 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 44 of 72 | 61% | 64 of 111 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 42 of 64 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:11 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 11 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 65 of 96 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 19 of 32 | 59% | 14 of 27 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Stephen Thompson | 58 of 95 | 61% | 56 of 92 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 55 of 84 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 10 of 16 | 62% | 8 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Stephen Thompson | 44 of 72 | 61% | 42 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 41 of 64 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 7 of 11 | 63% | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 10 of 16 | 62% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 13 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
In this pivotal co-main event, renowned karateka “Wonderboy” Thompson (16-5-1, 11-5-1 UFC) will try to keep his place in the top echelon of the welterweight division. Against him will be Muhammad (19-3, 1 NC; 10-3, 1 NC UFC), who will aim to find the secret of his power. Herb Dean will be the referee for this interesting stylistic clash, and the fighters are happy to touch gloves in a good show of sportsmanship. Thompson is quick to get to his signature style, staying out of range and backing off with kicks to the body and up high. Muhammad eats a hook kick in the face, and he shrugs it off so that he can shoot in for a double. “Wonderboy” stops it from succeeding and stings Muhammad with a left hand, and Muhammad is suddenly in trouble. Thompson spins with a kick that clatters off Muhammad’s dome, and he wears it well and blocks a few strikes that come at him. Thompson jumps forward with a strike, and Muhammad manages to power through and go for a takedown. Grabbing Thompson by his waist as they are both on their seats, they begin to slug it out from close range like a seated version of Frye vs. Takayama. After they continue to trade punches, Thompson walks his way back up using the fence, and he shucks off a standing guillotine try from Muhammad. Tight in the clinch, Thompson rips a few knees up high until Muhammad snags hold of a single to put Thompson down. “Wonderboy” manages to land on a knee so he is not flat down, and he grabs the fence to stand back up. Muhammad grapples him from behind, before turning things around to elevate Thompson and put him down. Muhammad lands on Thompson’s back, and he hunts for a rear-naked choke before flattening Thompson out with strikes. “Remember the Name” rains down punches from this advantageous position, pounding on the side of Thompson’s head while Thompson turtles up. Thompson protects himself from the brunt of the strikes that should not merit a stoppage, and he turns to his side as Muhammad continues to work him over from above. A few punches land to the back of the head, and Muhammad bludgeons Thompson relentlessly until the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 2
The welterweights touch gloves to start off the second round, and Thompson is the immediate aggressor with side kicks to the face. Thompson slings a high kick with his rear leg, and the kick is blocked but still knocks Muhammad back a step. “Wonderboy” springs in with a strike and dances out of the way, and he lands cleanly to ring Muhammad’s bell. Thompson tees off on Muhammad until Muhammad has had enough of the striking, and he closes in to latch on to Thompson and wrench him down to the mat. Thompson works his way back up, only for Muhammad to lift him up and hold his ankle to put Thompson back down flat on the canvas. The Chicago native gets into half guard, where he isolates Thompson’s right arm to set up a kimura. When that does not succeed, Muhammad begins to batter Thompson’s thigh with elbows. Thompson pulls his arm free, only for Muhammad to continue elbowing the same spot. Thompson edges his way to the wall, and he posts on his knee to stand up as Muhammad torques on his arm for a straight armlock or kimura. Thompson appears to pay it no mind, but he is still trapped on the floor with no way up as precious seconds tick off the clock. Muhammad abandons the grip so that he can turn around and get off ground-and-pound, introducing his elbow to Thompson’s face repeatedly. Thompson eats several of these shots but blocks others, and Muhammad hacks at him with elbows until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 3
Muhammad instantly starts the round with a takedown try, and “Wonderboy” cannot stave him off with a few strikes as Muhammad advances relentlessly. Muhammad lifts Thompson’s leg all the way up in the air before putting Thompson down on the ground, and he ties Thompson’s legs up to keep him trapped. With his arm around Thompson’s back, he is able to smack Thompson in the face with short left hands. The former title challenger bursts back upright, and he fights off a subsequent takedown try with a choke attempt from above. Muhammad doggedly pursues another takedown, and he secures it in the center of the mat to put Thompson down at the midpoint of the final round. Muhammad claims half guard, and he calmly controls his opponent with light but effective ground-and-pound that keeps Dean away from standing them up. “Remember the Name” remembers that he can embrace the grind like the best of them, and he does exactly that, passing to side control and working Thompson over with elbows and hammerfists. Muhammad looks to pass to mount, but “Wonderboy” is able to at least keep that moral victory in his pocket as he is getting thoroughly outworked on the ground. Muhammad slashes Thompson with multiple elbows until the final horn ends this grueling match.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (30-27 Muhammad)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (30-27 Muhammad)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (30-27 Muhammad)
The Official Result
Belal Muhammad def. Stephen Thompson via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-26, 30-26)
Angelo picks Belal Muhammad with a full unit at +200. He cites recency bias from Gilbert Burns taking Thompson down at will, and believes Muhammad, a wrestling beast, will employ a grapple-heavy game plan. He thinks Muhammad will win a unanimous decision by taking Thompson down repeatedly. Angelo admits it hurts because he loves Wonderboy, but he sees a clear path for Muhammad.
Big Brady picks Stephen Thompson by decision, citing his striking advantage and reach. He believes Muhammad's takedown accuracy (28%) is not enough to threaten Thompson's takedown defense and get-up game. He acknowledges the smaller cage favors Muhammad but expects Thompson to stuff takedowns and win a convincing decision.
Cody is confident in Thompson, citing his superior striking and distance management. He notes that Muhammad is a generalist without elite skills, and his wins are against lower-level competition. Cody points to the Leon Edwards fight where Muhammad struggled with a fast, lateral-moving striker. He believes Thompson's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing and that he will win by decision, though he acknowledges Muhammad's durability and the possibility of a KO.
Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad as a +200 underdog. He argues that Stephen Thompson has never won a fight in which he was taken down, citing losses to Woodley, Brown, and Burns. Levi notes that in Thompson's wins over Neal and Luque, those opponents attempted zero takedowns combined. He believes Muhammad's relentless wrestling and pressure will be the key, and that Thompson's age (almost 40) is a factor. Levi expects a gritty, ugly fight where Muhammad grinds out a decision or late stoppage.
Jacob picks Stephen Thompson, expecting a boring decision win. He believes Thompson's footwork and karate style will allow him to bounce in and out, point-fight, and avoid takedowns. Jacob thinks if Thompson is taken down, he will get right back up. He cites Thompson's fight with Darren Till where only 71 strikes were landed combined, expecting a similar low-volume striking match.
The host picks Thompson by decision, believing his striking and movement will keep Muhammad at bay. He notes that Muhammad is athletically capped and will struggle to get inside. He leans towards the decision prop around even money.
Paul likes Thompson as the rightful favorite, emphasizing that nobody outstrikes Thompson on the feet. He notes Muhammad's wrestling is not elite and Thompson's takedown defense has improved. Paul expects Thompson to win by decision, as Muhammad has shown durability but can be wobbled, as seen in the Edwards fight.
The MMA Guru picks Stephen Thompson to win by 30-27 decision. He thinks Thompson's striking and takedown defense will be too much for Muhammad. He notes Muhammad struggles to get takedowns against top-level opponents and Thompson stuffed Burns' takedowns. He expects Thompson to out-strike Muhammad easily, though he jokes Thompson is too nice to finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 29 of 43 | 67% | 101 of 126 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 7:13 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 19 of 53 | 35% | 59 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gilbert Burns | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 29 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:30 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 18 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Gilbert Burns | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 27 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 19 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Gilbert Burns | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 45 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:11 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 22 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns | 29 of 43 | 67% | 17 of 29 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 16 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 13 |
| Stephen Thompson | 19 of 53 | 35% | 14 of 44 | 2 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gilbert Burns | 8 of 12 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
| Stephen Thompson | 3 of 4 | 75% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gilbert Burns | 10 of 18 | 55% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 8 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 9 of 29 | 31% | 5 of 21 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gilbert Burns | 11 of 13 | 84% | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 |
| Stephen Thompson | 7 of 20 | 35% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The co-main event comes in the form of a potential welterweight title eliminator between recent challenger Burns (19-4, 12-4 UFC) and “Wonderboy” Thompson (16-4-1, 11-4-1 UFC). This interesting style matchup that presents a striker against a grappler – but that grappler has heavy hands – could provide for some intriguing action. Looking on is referee Marc Goddard, and there is nothing but respect between these two 170-pounders who touch gloves to seal the cage. Thompson keeps a traditionally wide stance, and Burns mimics the same stance as the two try to find a way in. Neither throw a single strike for the first 45 seconds, when Thompson lands a light leg kick. Burns ducks down to throw an overhand right, and he tries to chase “Wonderboy” down and land a huge shot and a head kick, but they come up short. Burns dives low for a single, and Thompson defends against the fence and fights off a subsequent double leg takedown attempt as well. Burns continues to grind in this position as the crowd starts to turn on the fighters, so Burns knees Thompson in the thigh a few times. This stalemate continues as Goddard calls for them to work, so Burns drops down for another takedown try that comes up short. Burns picks up a single and lifts Thompson up to set him down, where he finally gets the takedown he was seeking. Burns hold on from a half guard position as he looks to tie up an arm-triangle choke, and when “Wonderboy” scoots to the fence, Burns lands a few right hands on him. Burns has the karateka locked down in this position, keeping him grounded as Thompson tries to work his way up the fence. Thompson posts off a hand to get to his knees, and Burns thumps him in the chest with a hard knee. Burns delivers right hands on the chin until Thompson stands up, and the two men break away with seconds to go. As Burns charges in, Thompson clips Burns with a right hand, and drops Burns to a knee. When Burns stands up, Thompson fires off a head kick, and the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Round 2
The glove touch begins the second round, and “Wonderboy” starts off with a solid kick to Burns’ calf. Thompson switches stances and avoids a head kick to come up short with a spinning back kick of his own. Thompson whiffs on a series of punches, as Burns backs off to a safe distance before re-engaging to fire off a right hand. Thompson gets off a kick to the body, and Burns returns fire with a leg kick. “Wonderboy” irritates his foe with a few side kicks to the leg and body, and he parries a leaping Burns with ease. Thompson’s toes reach the midsection when he kicks, and he stands tall when Burns kicks his thigh back. Thompson slings a head kick that gets blocked in time, and a spinning heel kick gets through the guard and may have hurt Burns. Burns charges like a man possessed, throwing caution to the wind and catching Thompson on the end of a right hand. “Wonderboy” hops out of the way and stings Burns with a straight left hand, splitting the guard and making Burns retreat. The karate fighter kicks the lead leg, follows it with a few punches, and ignores a leg kick that comes his direction. When Burns advances, Thompson is there with a side kick to the chest to push the Brazilian back. Thompson pulls his leg free when Burns advances to take him down, and he circles out to crack Burns with a right hand. Thompson stays elusive and defensive as he reaches a right hand out, and Burns intercepts him with a leg kick and a right hand. Burns leaps forward and hits a takedown from a long distance, putting Thompson on his seat against the fence. Thompson returns to a knee at the 10-second clapper, and both men start clubbing each other with right hands like a grounded version of Frye-Takayama until the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Round 3
The welterweights touch both hands to begin the last round, and “Wonderboy” steps back to get off a head kick that is partially blocked. A side kick that follows splits Burns’ guard and smacks him in the face, and Thompson looks to follow it up with a few lunging punches. Burns walks right into a right hand, and Burns smiles at him and gets punched a few more times as his smile fades. Thompson has Burns backpedaling as he lands whenever he throws a strike, and Burns is stuck watching the karateka do work on him. Burns takes a flush spinning heel kick to the side of the head and drops to a knee, and when he scrambles back to his feet, he throws hands with reckless abandon. Thompson welcomes it and lands a few more strikes as he backs away to a safe distance, and Burns crashes in to try to take him down. The attempt fails, but the redoubled effort for Burns puts Thompson on his back in side control. With Burns content to sit in this position as precious seconds tick off the clock, both men punch one another in the side again and again. Burns holds tight to keep “Wonderboy” stuck on the ground, pulling Thompson’s wrist out when the American looks to stand back up. Burns embraces the grind to pepper Thompson with short left hands, racking up control time and scoring points with these punches. Thompson tries to pull himself back up, but Burns is on him like fly paper until he wraps his arm around Thompson’s neck. Thompson sits down instead of falling into this choke, and Burns elects to blatantly punch him several times to the back of the head and neck. The crowd does not appreciate this final exchange, and the fans shower the Brazilian with boos as the fight concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns (29-28 Burns)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns (29-28 Burns)
The Official Result
Gilbert Burns def. Stephen Thompson via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Wonderboy, citing his in-and-out karate style and excellent distance management. He thinks Burns will struggle to close the distance and get takedowns. He notes Thompson's recent performances have been phenomenal, especially against Geoff Neal. He plans to bet Thompson by stoppage or decision no action, expecting a decision but hedging.
Big Brady picks Stephen Thompson to win by knockout, specifically a third-round knockout. He highlights Thompson's striking advantage, range management, and takedown defense (78%). He notes that Burns will struggle to close the distance and take Thompson down, and that failing to get takedowns will gas Burns. He compares it to Burns' fight with Dan Hooker, where Hooker picked Burns apart. He also mentions Thompson's durability, having only been knocked out once by a fluke.
Cody picks Thompson, citing his superior striking, range, cardio, and speed. He notes Burns' power and puncher's chance but questions his durability and cardio. He mentions Thompson's takedown defense and the big cage favoring him. He thinks Thompson wins by decision, possibly hurting Burns.
Daniel Levi picks Stephen Thompson (Wonderboy) to win. He believes Thompson will control the minutes with his striking, using sidekicks, jabs, and picking Burns apart. He notes that Burns has poor striking defense and gets hit too much, which is dangerous against a precise striker like Thompson. He acknowledges Burns' one-punch knockout power and elite jiu-jitsu, but thinks Thompson's takedown defense and toughness will hold up. He also questions Burns' mindset coming off a title loss.
Jacob agrees with Angelo, stating there are different levels even among top-five fighters. He believes Thompson's length and movement will give Burns fits, similar to how Usman's jab troubled Burns. He doesn't see Burns getting close enough to grapple and expects Thompson to win a decision.
I'm on Wonderboy Thompson here. I think Burns' wins at 170 are over the hill fighters like Woodley, Maia, and Gunnar Nelson. Thompson's movement, blitz attacks, and ability to fight from both stances will give Burns fits. Burns will struggle to take Thompson down and will slow down from whiffing. I expect Thompson to knock him out, probably in the third round. I like Thompson by KO and round 3 props.
Paul picks Thompson, agreeing with Cody. He emphasizes Thompson's movement, the big cage, and his ability to frustrate pressure fighters. He notes Burns' cardio issues and the fact that Thompson has faced better wrestlers. He thinks Thompson wins by decision.
The Guru picks Thompson by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Burns to come out aggressive in the first round, landing leg kicks and some big shots, possibly wobbling Thompson, but Thompson will invest in sidekicks to the body and leg. In the second round, Burns will become more patient and run into Thompson's point-fighting striking game, with Thompson defending takedowns and circling out. By the third round, Burns will be a shell of himself, and Thompson will pick him apart from the outside. The Guru believes Burns will blow his wad early and fail to get the finish, leading to a decision loss.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 171 of 406 | 42% | 191 of 428 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 85 of 179 | 47% | 110 of 205 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 25 of 66 | 37% | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 7 of 30 | 23% | 7 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 30 of 70 | 42% | 36 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 22 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:30 | |
| 3 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 33 of 80 | 41% | 41 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 25 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:32 | |
| 4 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 34 of 75 | 45% | 35 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 15 of 31 | 48% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 5 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 49 of 115 | 42% | 54 of 121 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 33 of 60 | 55% | 38 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Thompson | 171 of 406 | 42% | 124 of 354 | 41 of 46 | 6 of 6 | 165 of 398 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 85 of 179 | 47% | 71 of 161 | 8 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 79 of 169 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Thompson | 25 of 66 | 37% | 15 of 54 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 7 of 30 | 23% | 6 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Stephen Thompson | 30 of 70 | 42% | 17 of 57 | 12 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 15 of 25 | 60% | 8 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 14 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Stephen Thompson | 33 of 80 | 41% | 27 of 72 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 76 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 15 of 33 | 45% | 13 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Stephen Thompson | 34 of 75 | 45% | 25 of 65 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 72 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 15 of 31 | 48% | 13 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Stephen Thompson | 49 of 115 | 42% | 40 of 106 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 48 of 114 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 33 of 60 | 55% | 31 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 57 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Geoff Neal to win the main event, rounding out his lineup. He expresses high confidence, stating 'I'm very confident and Jeff Neal get the job done.' No specific reasoning is given beyond confidence.
Big Brady picks Geoff Neal over Stephen Thompson, citing Neal's youth (7 years younger), higher volume, and ability to close distance in the smaller cage. He notes Thompson's low volume in past fights and his history of being dropped (four times in UFC). Brady predicts Neal will knock out Thompson in the second round, emphasizing Neal's power and speed advantage.
The host believes Wonderboy's karate stance, in-and-out movement, and counter-striking will give Geoff Neal problems. He notes Neal has never faced a striker of Thompson's caliber and may struggle with the range and five-round pace. The host predicts a late finish (round 4 or 5) as Neal's gas tank fades.
The Guru picks Stephen Thompson, citing his superior striking and movement. He believes Thompson's footwork and reach advantage will neutralize Geoff Neal's power, especially over five rounds. He notes Neal has gassed in past fights and has only beaten plodding strikers, while Thompson's unorthodox style will be too much. He predicts a 49-46 unanimous decision, with Neal possibly winning the first round but Thompson dominating the rest.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Thompson | 1 | 138 of 242 | 57% | 138 of 242 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 77 of 175 | 44% | 77 of 175 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 32 of 50 | 64% | 32 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 38 of 67 | 56% | 38 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Stephen Thompson | 0 | 51 of 91 | 56% | 51 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 25 of 61 | 40% | 25 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Stephen Thompson | 1 | 55 of 101 | 54% | 55 of 101 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 14 of 47 | 29% | 14 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Thompson | 138 of 242 | 57% | 111 of 212 | 21 of 23 | 6 of 7 | 126 of 227 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 12 |
| Vicente Luque | 77 of 175 | 44% | 26 of 107 | 9 of 18 | 42 of 50 | 76 of 172 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Thompson | 32 of 50 | 64% | 25 of 42 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 30 of 48 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 38 of 67 | 56% | 10 of 35 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 26 | 37 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Stephen Thompson | 51 of 91 | 56% | 43 of 82 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 50 of 90 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 25 of 61 | 40% | 9 of 34 | 2 of 9 | 14 of 18 | 25 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Stephen Thompson | 55 of 101 | 54% | 43 of 88 | 11 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 46 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 12 |
| Vicente Luque | 14 of 47 | 29% | 7 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 14 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo picks Wonderboy, citing his in-and-out karate style and excellent distance management. He thinks Burns will struggle to close the distance and get takedowns. He notes Thompson's recent performances have been phenomenal, especially against Geoff Neal. He plans to bet Thompson by stoppage or decision no action, expecting a decision but hedging.
Big Brady picks Stephen Thompson to win by knockout, specifically a third-round knockout. He highlights Thompson's striking advantage, range management, and takedown defense (78%). He notes that Burns will struggle to close the distance and take Thompson down, and that failing to get takedowns will gas Burns. He compares it to Burns' fight with Dan Hooker, where Hooker picked Burns apart. He also mentions Thompson's durability, having only been knocked out once by a fluke.
Cody picks Thompson, citing his superior striking, range, cardio, and speed. He notes Burns' power and puncher's chance but questions his durability and cardio. He mentions Thompson's takedown defense and the big cage favoring him. He thinks Thompson wins by decision, possibly hurting Burns.
Daniel Levi picks Stephen Thompson (Wonderboy) to win. He believes Thompson will control the minutes with his striking, using sidekicks, jabs, and picking Burns apart. He notes that Burns has poor striking defense and gets hit too much, which is dangerous against a precise striker like Thompson. He acknowledges Burns' one-punch knockout power and elite jiu-jitsu, but thinks Thompson's takedown defense and toughness will hold up. He also questions Burns' mindset coming off a title loss.
Jacob agrees with Angelo, stating there are different levels even among top-five fighters. He believes Thompson's length and movement will give Burns fits, similar to how Usman's jab troubled Burns. He doesn't see Burns getting close enough to grapple and expects Thompson to win a decision.
I'm on Wonderboy Thompson here. I think Burns' wins at 170 are over the hill fighters like Woodley, Maia, and Gunnar Nelson. Thompson's movement, blitz attacks, and ability to fight from both stances will give Burns fits. Burns will struggle to take Thompson down and will slow down from whiffing. I expect Thompson to knock him out, probably in the third round. I like Thompson by KO and round 3 props.
Paul picks Thompson, agreeing with Cody. He emphasizes Thompson's movement, the big cage, and his ability to frustrate pressure fighters. He notes Burns' cardio issues and the fact that Thompson has faced better wrestlers. He thinks Thompson wins by decision.
The Guru picks Thompson by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Burns to come out aggressive in the first round, landing leg kicks and some big shots, possibly wobbling Thompson, but Thompson will invest in sidekicks to the body and leg. In the second round, Burns will become more patient and run into Thompson's point-fighting striking game, with Thompson defending takedowns and circling out. By the third round, Burns will be a shell of himself, and Thompson will pick him apart from the outside. The Guru believes Burns will blow his wad early and fail to get the finish, leading to a decision loss.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!