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Age 32
Height 6' 1"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 33
Height 6' 0"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Dricus du Plessis
5.18 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
4.33 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
2.22 TD Avg
51.0% TD Acc.
34.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Trevin Giles
3.17 SLpM
54.0% Str. Acc.
2.39 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
1.07 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Dricus du Plessis
Moneyline
FanDuel -104
KO/TKO
BetWay +275
Submission
BetRivers +500
Decision
BetRivers +450
Trevin Giles
Moneyline
BetMGM +100
KO/TKO
BetMGM +500
Submission
BetRivers +1000
Decision
BetRivers +210
Dricus du Plessis - Fight History
LOSS vs Khamzat Chimaev
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 13 of 29 44% 45 of 68 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:53
Khamzat Chimaev 0 37 of 47 78% 529 of 567 12 of 17 70% 0 0 21:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 0 of 0 --- 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khamzat Chimaev 0 1 of 2 50% 131 of 137 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:47
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 0 of 2 0% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khamzat Chimaev 0 4 of 5 80% 79 of 81 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:47
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 1 of 2 50% 9 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khamzat Chimaev 0 19 of 22 86% 156 of 164 3 of 3 100% 0 0 4:46
4 Dricus du Plessis 0 2 of 5 40% 8 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khamzat Chimaev 0 4 of 6 66% 76 of 85 3 of 5 60% 0 0 4:26
5 Dricus du Plessis 0 10 of 20 50% 19 of 32 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:53
Khamzat Chimaev 0 9 of 12 75% 87 of 100 3 of 6 50% 0 0 2:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 13 of 29 44% 10 of 24 2 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 25 0 of 0 3 of 4
Khamzat Chimaev 37 of 47 78% 28 of 36 3 of 5 6 of 6 12 of 19 0 of 0 25 of 28
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khamzat Chimaev 1 of 2 50% 1 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khamzat Chimaev 4 of 5 80% 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 4
3 Dricus du Plessis 1 of 2 50% 1 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khamzat Chimaev 19 of 22 86% 19 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 19 of 22
4 Dricus du Plessis 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khamzat Chimaev 4 of 6 66% 2 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Dricus du Plessis 10 of 20 50% 8 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 16 0 of 0 3 of 4
Khamzat Chimaev 9 of 12 75% 6 of 9 1 of 1 2 of 2 8 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Middleweight Title Fight: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-238), du Plessis (+195)

Round 1
Let’s be honest: this is what you came here to see. The other fights tonight were pretty solid, nothing extraordinary with mixed results featuring some duds and a few good knockouts. This middleweight championship battle is one that people have marked on their calendar the day it was announced, and it was one fans have been waiting for since Chimaev (14-0, 8-0 UFC) won in the Octagon three times in 2020. The so-called boogeyman has his time to shine tonight, but he will have to get through Du Plessis (23-2, 9-0 UFC). Irresistible force, meet immovable object. No one has gotten past “DDP” in the UFC to date, but Chimaev is expected by the betting populace and fan contingent to go home with the belt. Referee Marc Goddard takes the final assignment of the evening, bringing the two 185ers to the center of the cage. They are so fired up and intense that they crash into each other when staring down, but they do touch gloves after all. Let’s all take a deep breath here. It’s on with the show.
Chimaev pushes out a front kick and shoots for a double, and Du Plessis rolls through it but ends up winding up on his back within 15 seconds. Du Plessis briefly considers a guillotine choke off his back, but when Chimaev considers a Von Preux shoulder choke, Du Plessis abandons it. Chimaev is already in side control in the center of the cage, and he wraps up the champ’s right arm in a crucifix position. Chimaev starts pounding on the side of the head, and a few punches land to the back of the head as Goddard is paying attention. Chimaev keeps beating on the downed champion with short but scoring punches, and Du Plessis bucks and kicks to try to get out. With Du Plessis’ face turned to Chimaev’s chest, the punches have little on them even as they add up like a big brother bullying a young sibling.
Chimaev keeps smacking his foe with any free hand, and he flirts with an arm-triangle choke when Du Plessis wrenches his arm free. Du Plessis’ bucks and twists allow him to put his feet on the fence, and he pushes off of it while not hooking his toes in the fencing. Chimaev stays tight as a drum on top, bopping “Stillknocks” with his irritating little punches. When Chimaev steps to get to mount, Du Plessis illegally grabs the cage to reposition himself and Goddard admonishes him for it. Chimaev knees him in the side once or twice when he puts Du Plessis flat on his back again. Goddard asks the challenger to do more in this position, and it is Du Plessis who twists all the way around not just to get out of the bad position but escapes the brief back take. The champ thinks about another guillotine choke, and Chimaev flips him over and elbows him to concluded the one-sided round. As a rule-based reminder, 10-8 rounds now must have damage as a mandatory criteria.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev

Round 2
The fighters strike for a second or two before Chimaev advances in pursuit of a takedown. Du Plessis defends well enough to crawl his way to the cage wall without ever fully going down, but Chimaev is behind him ragdolling him. Du Plessis stands, and the challenger hurls him right back down to the floor from behind. Du Plessis works his way back to the fencing again all while Chimaev clings to him like malicious Saran wrap. Chimaev knees him in the back and side a few times, and Du Plessis appears unconcerned but is completely nullified a round and a half in. Chimaev spams knees to the posterior as Du Plessis posts off his hands, and he wrenches the South African to the floor and starts fishing for chokes or face cranks.
The champ recognizes the peril he is in and hand-fights to defend any submission from coming close to materializing, so Chimaev strips his other leg out and puts him on both knees once more. Chimaev tries to climb onto the back and get a hook in, but he settles for knees to the thigh. The audience wants more. Du Plessis defends left hands to the side of his head, and only a few get through. Chimaev reaches either arm around the chest like a mean-spirited seatbelt, and Du Plessis uses two-on-one wrist control to thwart it from progressing. Chimaev lands a knee or two in the ribs, fully controlling “DDP” and disallowing him from landing a single noteworthy blow. Chimaev hangs on until the round ends, and Du Plessis winks at him.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev

Round 3
Du Plessis says hello with a quick kick, and he scores a left hand as Chimaev advances. Chimaev ignores it as he is already after a takedown, where he lifts up the champion in the air and hurls him to the floor. Du Plessis stands up, and Chimaev uses the body lock to toss him back down, where he moves right to side control. Chimaev smothers his man, and he moves to set up another crucifix as Goddard asks for more activity than little swatting punches. Chimaev secures the crucifix he was seeking by looping his legs around the champ’s right arm, and he pummels him with short, annoying fists. The strike totals may be through the roof, and the damage begins mounting as Du Plessis’ face is busted open a smidge.
Chimaev stays in the dominant position smacking him upside the head, and Du Plessis has absolutely no answers but motions a thumbs-up to his team as if he knows something we don’t even as Chimaev has landed well over 200 strikes on him in the last two-and-a-half rounds. Chimaev switchers to elbows, and blood flows a bit more from the wound on the champion’s face. Chimaev releases the grip on the arm and steps into full mount, knowing that Du Plessis will turn to give up his back. Du Plessis defends a choke grip but Chimaev has both hooks in elbowing the champ repeatedly. Du Plessis sits up, and Chimaev threatens with a brabo choke as the bell sounds. When the champion stands, he shrugs.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev

Round 4
The championship rounds are here, and Du Plessis is not broken and signals to the crowd to get pumped up. Chimaev tosses out a front kick, and he backs off to avoid a one-two. Chimaev tries for a body kick that he turns to a takedown, and Du Plessis spins out of it to stop the first try. The challenger is a dog with a bone when it comes to the grappling, and he succeeds in wrestling the champion down to the mat. Du Plessis positions himself towards the fencing while on his knees, and Chimaev works on either side of his body with peppering knees. Du Plessis explodes back to his feet, and Chimaev mat returns him with relative ease in a real “there’s levels to this” showcase. Du Plessis may manage to again get to his knees, and Goddard tells Chimaev to do more than knee him in the backside. Chimaev answers by pulling the champ away from the cage and putting him down. Du Plessis stands, and the mat return is almost instant. Few champs have been wholly dominated in such a fashion.
Du Plessis feebly rolls to try to escape, and this only puts him at a disadvantageous position with Chimaev hooking up a crucifix by keeping his knee on the champ’s right bicep. Du Plessis is warned for toes in the fence when trying to push off the wall, and after some light knees from Chimaev, Goddard stands them up. Du Plessis strikes with a body kick, and the marauding challenger hurls him to the ground. Once Du Plessis hits the mat, he shows someone a thumbs-up, but it is an empty gesture. With Du Plessis wearing down, Chimaev goes after a few chokes that do not materialize. Twenty minutes are in the books.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev

Round 5
Chimaev starts off the last round with a head kick, and he blocks one that comes back his way. Du Plessis puts a one-two on the chin, and Chimaev responds with a jab and a takedown shot. The South African cannot get away before the challenger’s arms are wrapped around him taking him to the floor. Chimaev quickly sets up a crucifix again, where he starts beating on the champ with soft punches. Du Plessis uses a kimura grip to sweep, allowing him to get to his knees and out of the bad spot. Chimaev holds onto him from behind, dragging Du Plessis to the ground the moment Du Plessis stands.
In a moment of explosive desperation, Du Plessis manages to flip Chimaev to his back, where he jumps for a guillotine choke in a move that may even have Dustin Poirier screaming at the fighters—since he is in the booth upstairs, and not home yelling at his television. The choke has nothing on it with the two so sweaty, and Chimaev pops out and get in the guard. With 90 seconds to go, Goddard stands them up. Chimaev puts out a triple jab to disrupt the advancing champion, and Du Plessis misses with a high kick. Chimaev has two low kicks score, and he backpedals when getting cracked with a right hand. Chimaev shoots deep, and Du Plessis sprawls and starts hacking at Chimaev in the temple. Chimaev keeps pushing through the hips, and Du Plessis manages to throw the challenger to his back with 30 seconds to go. Du Plessis wraps up a rear-naked choke, but he falls off the side to lose it. Chimaev clings to an arm, and Du Plessis elbows him in the top of the head. Chimaev wags his finger at him, and the one-sided fight comes to a merciful conclusion with the new coronation of a champion coming momentarily.
At long last, Khamzat Chimaev has recognized the potential many saw in him years ago. He is now the undisputed middleweight champion, and he ragdolled a man that many thought might be his match. When speaking to commentator Joe Rogan, Chimaev does not say a great deal in English or through a translator, but asks to get paid. When “Borz” has his first defense scheduled, you better you bet we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev (50-44 Chimaev)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (49-44 Chimaev)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (49-44 Chimaev)

The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Dricus Du Plessis via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-44, 50-44)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Angelo acknowledges the common narrative that DDP wins if he survives early, but he questions Chimaev's cardio criticism, noting his tough weight cuts at 170. He believes the skill gap is wider than people think and that Chimaev can win multiple rounds. He picks Chimaev as the attacker rather than the survivor, despite rooting for DDP.

"I am going to pick Hamzot, though. I think the skill gap is wider than most people think it is."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by first-round submission. He thinks Chimaev will get takedowns easily and put du Plessis in bad spots early. He worries about Chimaev's cardio if the fight goes to the third round, as du Plessis has shown good cardio and could take over late. He notes Chimaev has never seen a fourth or fifth round. He sees it as Chimaev early or du Plessis late, but leans Chimaev by early submission.

Chimaev by submission, round 1
"Give me Hamzad to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by first round submission in this one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Connor picks Chimaev, arguing that du Plessis has never faced a wrestler of Chimaev's caliber and that his takedown defense is poor, as shown in the Derek Brunson fight where he was taken down in 10 seconds. He believes Chimaev is the best one-round fighter in MMA history and will likely finish du Plessis early. However, he acknowledges that if Chimaev doesn't get the finish, du Plessis's resilience and ability to weather storms could make it competitive.

Chimaev opened at -200, currently -237; du Plessis opened at +170, currently +202
"I think Khamzat Chimaev is going to be champion by the end of the week. And I'm pretty certain of that."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

The host believes Chimaev's wrestling, top control, and submission game will be too much for du Plessis. He predicts Chimaev will secure a submission within two rounds, becoming the new middleweight champion. The host emphasizes Chimaev's grappling advantage as the key factor.

submission within two rounds
"I think he's going to struggle with the wrestling top control and submission game of Chamay, which should lead to Hamzat earning that gold and finding the submission within two rounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to survive the early grappling onslaught from Khamzat Chimaev and take over as the fight progresses. He believes du Plessis's Brazilian jiu-jitsu background and experience against high-level grapplers will allow him to avoid being finished in round one. As Chimaev's cardio fades, du Plessis will turn the fight into a striking match and eventually finish him with a TKO in round three or four. The Guru compares this to Chimaev's fights with Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, where he struggled once the fight went past the first round.

TKO round 3 or 4; Dricus du Plessis wins by TKO up against the cage; less than 21.5 round one significant strikes for du Plessis (from PrizePicks segment)
"I think Drikus is going to survive round one and finish him. Driers has Brazilian jiu-jitsu game. I think he has the right mindset for this."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Zane picks du Plessis, citing his resilience, ability to manage anxiety and energy, and his proven five-round experience. He notes that du Plessis is a strong scrambler who doesn't get submitted easily and can find second winds. Zane is not confident, acknowledging that Chimaev will likely take du Plessis down early and may finish him, but he has faith in du Plessis's ability to survive and take over if Chimaev fades.

du Plessis opened at +170, currently +202; Chimaev opened at -200, currently -237
"I'm still going to pick Dricus. I just think it's fun to pick Dricus. I want Dricus to win."
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 312: du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Feb 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 147 of 314 46% 149 of 316 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:05
Sean Strickland 0 128 of 263 48% 128 of 263 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 20 of 45 44% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 16 of 49 32% 16 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 31 of 60 51% 31 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 29 of 54 53% 29 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 39 of 79 49% 39 of 79 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Sean Strickland 0 24 of 47 51% 24 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Dricus du Plessis 0 21 of 66 31% 23 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 28 of 51 54% 28 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Dricus du Plessis 0 36 of 64 56% 36 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 31 of 62 50% 31 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 147 of 314 46% 50 of 193 45 of 59 52 of 62 147 of 314 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 128 of 263 48% 90 of 212 29 of 41 9 of 10 128 of 263 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 20 of 45 44% 5 of 25 6 of 10 9 of 10 20 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 16 of 49 32% 10 of 41 5 of 7 1 of 1 16 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dricus du Plessis 31 of 60 51% 7 of 31 7 of 10 17 of 19 31 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 29 of 54 53% 15 of 35 8 of 13 6 of 6 29 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Dricus du Plessis 39 of 79 49% 11 of 46 14 of 15 14 of 18 39 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 24 of 47 51% 18 of 39 5 of 6 1 of 2 24 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Dricus du Plessis 21 of 66 31% 13 of 54 5 of 7 3 of 5 21 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 28 of 51 54% 23 of 43 5 of 8 0 of 0 28 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Dricus du Plessis 36 of 64 56% 14 of 37 13 of 17 9 of 10 36 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 31 of 62 50% 24 of 54 6 of 7 1 of 1 31 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady scored the first fight 3-2 for du Plessis and expects a similar competitive fight. He notes that Strickland fights the same way every time, with jabs and teeps, while du Plessis has the power and wrestling advantage. He thinks du Plessis will land the bigger shots and has all the finish upside. However, he believes the odds at -205 are too wide and expects a close decision. He picks du Plessis by decision.

I think these odds are wide I like I think the opener was a lot more accurate
"gimme drus here I think is going to win a close and competitive decision in this one once more and and uh yeah drus SP decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Dricus is the one likely to adjust. He notes that Strickland's internal struggles prevent him from changing his game. Connor also mentions that Dricus will not back down and will keep coming forward, which is key. He sees Strickland's win condition as a lucky punch or eye swelling, but considers it unlikely.

Same odds as Zane. Connor says he wouldn't bet on Strickland.
"I just trust Dricus to make an adaptation and I trust Sean Strickland to never ever do that."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert picked Feb 4, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Daniel Levi discusses the rematch between Dricus du Plessis and Sean Strickland, noting that the first fight was a five-round split decision. He cites historical examples where rematches of close five-round fights often end sooner, such as Machida vs Shogun and Cerrone vs Henderson. However, he does not explicitly pick a winner, instead asking the audience who they have. He mentions that du Plessis has made opponents cry with his trash talk but does not commit to a prediction.

"So who youall got in the rematch between dricus dupy and Sean Strickland going down this weekend at UFC 312"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Strickland's pace and pressure will allow him to pick apart du Plessis and get ahead on the scorecards. His striking defense and durability are good enough to deal with du Plessis's power. Strickland may incorporate some grappling to stay safe, but ultimately wins in deep water by decision.

decision
"I think if Strickland can pick it up a little bit more he should be able to utilize his pace and his pressure as effectively as we've seen him do in the past and that will allow him to really …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Zane believes Dricus du Plessis will win because he is more likely to adjust and has shown he can land bigger shots. He notes that Sean Strickland rarely adapts and his style is predictable. Zane also points out that Strickland's best chance is a knockout or doctor stoppage, but that is unlikely. He trusts Dricus to counter the jab and make Strickland hesitant.

Dricus du Plessis opened at -190, currently -196; Strickland opened at +167, currently +172. Zane says he wouldn't bet on Strickland.
"I think you basically have to pick Dricus."
Submission (face crank) R4 3:38 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 90 of 197 45% 99 of 206 4 of 9 44% 2 0 3:39
Israel Adesanya 0 97 of 203 47% 105 of 211 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 22 of 52 42% 22 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 16 of 37 43% 16 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 13 of 25 52% 22 of 34 3 of 5 60% 1 0 3:28
Israel Adesanya 0 17 of 30 56% 25 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:02
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 31 of 75 41% 31 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 40 of 83 48% 40 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Dricus du Plessis 0 24 of 45 53% 24 of 45 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:11
Israel Adesanya 0 24 of 53 45% 24 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 90 of 197 45% 61 of 155 7 of 13 22 of 29 80 of 184 8 of 11 2 of 2
Israel Adesanya 97 of 203 47% 63 of 165 26 of 29 8 of 9 92 of 198 4 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 22 of 52 42% 8 of 30 2 of 5 12 of 17 22 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 16 of 37 43% 10 of 31 4 of 4 2 of 2 16 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dricus du Plessis 13 of 25 52% 10 of 21 2 of 2 1 of 2 5 of 14 6 of 9 2 of 2
Israel Adesanya 17 of 30 56% 12 of 25 2 of 2 3 of 3 13 of 26 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Dricus du Plessis 31 of 75 41% 22 of 63 1 of 3 8 of 9 31 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 40 of 83 48% 25 of 66 12 of 14 3 of 3 40 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Dricus du Plessis 24 of 45 53% 21 of 41 2 of 3 1 of 1 22 of 43 2 of 2 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 24 of 53 45% 16 of 43 8 of 9 0 of 1 23 of 52 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo picks Dricus du Plessis despite acknowledging Israel Adesanya is the more technical fighter. He believes du Plessis's insane pressure, constant forward movement, and takedown attempts will be too much for the 35-year-old Adesanya, who took a year off. He has two half-unit bets on du Plessis at +105 and +120, totaling one unit, and is confident the pressure will overwhelm Adesanya.

Two half-unit bets at +105 and +120; total 1 unit
"I think all of that is going to be too much for Izzy he's 35 years old he took a year off... drus is going to be the pick and I've got two bets on draz."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya to win by decision, but is hesitant. He struggled with this pick, initially leaning du Plessis but then moving to Adesanya. He rewatched the du Plessis vs Strickland fight and didn't think du Plessis won convincingly. He notes that if du Plessis fights at range against Adesanya, Adesanya will make it look easy, but if du Plessis pressures recklessly, he could knock Adesanya out. He is concerned about Adesanya's last performance against Strickland, which was his worst career fight, but believes a motivated Adesanya can win. He says he will probably stay away from betting this fight.

decision
"I'm going to pick osani to win this fight and Win It by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Cody believes du Plessis has the wrestling advantage to take Adesanya down repeatedly, as Adesanya's takedown defense has always been suspect. He notes du Plessis is younger, has better cardio, and is improving, while Adesanya is 35 and coming off a year layoff. He also points to du Plessis' wins over Robert Whittaker and Sean Strickland as evidence he can handle top competition.

"I'm going to back him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Vreeland picks Dricus du Plessis to retain the belt, citing stylistic advantages in closing distance and making the fight dirty. He notes that du Plessis has power, wrestling threats, and a proven ability to push pace, while Adesanya may be declining due to age and recent losses. Vreeland also mentions betting on du Plessis at plus 110 odds.

"I took D's dupy plus 110 listen I know it's tough to bet against a guy like IAT asna but when we come down to the Stylistics closing the distance getting right in his face fighting not at kicking range …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Vreeland picks Adesanya, calling him 'good' and noting he occasionally gets caught but won't happen here against a smaller fighter. He believes Adesanya will play it safe and get his belt back, especially with the home crowd against him.

"give me isosa isos is good he occasionally gets caught and knocked out I don't think that's gonna happen here with a smaller fighter in tras D pleas c"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Fox picks Adesanya, arguing du Plessis is good but cannot close the distance against a motivated Adesanya. He compares to Pereira: you need elite striking or wrestling to beat Adesanya. He dismisses the Strickland loss as an unmotivated Adesanya, and believes with the trilogy fight with Pereira dangling, Adesanya will be fully motivated and put on a clinic. He thinks du Plessis' pressure will be countered viciously.

Israel Adesanya by decision (+240) - Fox's prop pick
"I think you see the ated version of them back and I think you see an absolute clinic on the feet so yeah isra desna"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The host picks Adesanya, citing his technical striking, traps, and game planning. He expects a revitalized Adesanya after rest, and believes he will counter du Plessis effectively. He notes du Plessis' power and forward pressure but thinks Adesanya's pop and volume will be too much. He predicts a knockout win for Adesanya.

Adesanya by knockout
"I think we're going to see a very revitalized version of aanna this weekend and I think that's ultimately going to lead to him getting his hand raised again"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Paul highlights Adesanya's history of lackluster performances under pressure, such as against Sean Strickland and Yoel Romero, and questions his urgency. He emphasizes du Plessis' forward pressure, durability, and wrestling ability, noting he took down Strickland six times. Paul also mentions du Plessis' youth and the fact that Adesanya is 35 and coming off a retirement, making du Plessis the smart side.

"sign me up for draas"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Israel Adesanya. He argues that du Plessis is bigger than Adesanya's previous opponents, with better footwork and angles, and has multiple offensive options including takedowns, body kicks, and ground and pound. He criticizes Adesanya's recent performances, noting close fights with Sean Strickland and a loss to Alex Pereira. He believes du Plessis will take Adesanya down and control him, possibly finishing via ground and pound. He also mentions Adesanya's age (35) and that du Plessis is in his prime and fighting on his own terms.

TKO late round two via ground and pound
"I'm going with drias dupi over israela... he's got way more options he's got the power"
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis · Jan 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 173 of 408 42% 183 of 419 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 137 of 354 38% 140 of 358 6 of 11 54% 0 0 2:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 34 of 75 45% 39 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 18 of 51 35% 19 of 52 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:28
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 22 of 62 35% 26 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 26 of 60 43% 26 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 31 of 87 35% 31 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 29 of 84 34% 29 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Dricus du Plessis 0 33 of 85 38% 34 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 29 of 73 39% 31 of 75 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:18
5 Dricus du Plessis 0 53 of 99 53% 53 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 35 of 86 40% 35 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 173 of 408 42% 157 of 387 10 of 15 6 of 6 173 of 408 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 137 of 354 38% 81 of 283 32 of 37 24 of 34 134 of 348 3 of 5 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 34 of 75 45% 28 of 67 2 of 4 4 of 4 34 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 18 of 51 35% 8 of 38 3 of 3 7 of 10 18 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dricus du Plessis 22 of 62 35% 20 of 59 1 of 2 1 of 1 22 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 26 of 60 43% 11 of 42 9 of 9 6 of 9 25 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Dricus du Plessis 31 of 87 35% 29 of 84 2 of 3 0 of 0 31 of 87 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 29 of 84 34% 13 of 64 10 of 12 6 of 8 28 of 83 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Dricus du Plessis 33 of 85 38% 32 of 84 1 of 1 0 of 0 33 of 85 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 29 of 73 39% 22 of 62 4 of 6 3 of 5 28 of 69 1 of 3 0 of 1
5 Dricus du Plessis 53 of 99 53% 48 of 93 4 of 5 1 of 1 53 of 99 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 35 of 86 40% 27 of 77 6 of 7 2 of 2 35 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Middleweight Title Fight: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Du Plessis (-198), Strickland (+164)

Round 1
The UFC is running a number of middleweight headliners before and after this show, clearly focusing on the top of the division and trying to establish contenders. Instead of a fresh face for Du Plessis (22-2, 8-0 UFC), however, the organization is rebooking the fight where “DDP” claimed the throne. Former beltholder Strickland (29-6, 16-6 UFC) gets another crack at the belt, and at least he won a fight beforehand. Making things official for this 185-pound title tilt will be referee Marc Goddard, issuing his final instructions and getting the combatants to touch ‘em up. It’s on with the show. Strickland keeps his guard up and paws out jabs almost immediately. Strickland stays busy behind his lead left hand, and he blocks a high kick and lets Du Plessis kick him in the sternum. Du Plessis chips at the front leg with kicks, hand-fighting the jabs and wrapping a kick up around the guard. Strickland wears it well and checks a calf kick so he can get in with a jab and a follow-up two. Du Plessis sells out with a hard calf kick that gets checked, so he quickly slaps the other side. Strickland’s jabs are getting through the guard, and Du Plessis answers with a few of his own jabs. Du Plessis goes after another kick, and when it is blocked, he spins and has his heel glance off the challenger’s side. Strickland does not vary his tactic of sticking directly behind his jab, no matter the oncoming fire like a speedy head kick. Strickland stays cool as a cucumber with a front kick of two, scooting out of the way Du Plessis loads up. Strickland jabs the body and is backed off with a spinning back kick that does push him away, and he uses his head movement to avoid the worst of a looping left. Du Plessis his toes slap Strickland on the cheek, with Strickland moving just enough just in time. A Strickland jab flusters “DDP,” who surges into action with power punches and a spin. Du Plessis parries a jab and throws back a left, and he wraps a right around the guard and a head kick inches away from where he was reaching. Du Plessis doubles up on a body kick and scores a right hand, and they both land body shots. Du Plessis rushes forward, gets parried, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis

Round 2
The middleweights clap hands to get going, and game plans do not shift out of the gate. A lot of pump-faking and feints lead to single strikes from both sides, and Du Plessis tries to string a few kicks together on either side. Strickland pushes a front kick through the guard, and they both get off low kicks. A body kick from Du Plessis slips under the guard, and he slips and has a left hand glance off the chin. Strickland turns to block another body kick, but the varied attack is hard to predict. Strickland lands a solid right hand, but it is one-and-done as Du Plessis pays him back. Du Plessis springs forward with a left, and he comes up short on a high kick but not on the leg kick. They both land punches at the same time, with the South African’s left busting open Strickland’s nose. Strickland flashes his jab and follows up with a few additional strikes, getting Du Plessis’ attention but not for long as Du Plessis remains in his face striking. The jabs of Strickland tear open a cut on the bridge of the champ’s nose, and he leans back just barely in time to not get clocked with a high kick and a left hand. Strickland’s parrying guard allows him to sway and move and block, but Du Plessis’s reaching attacks are long enough to land at the end of them. Du Plessis spins with a back fist, gets blocked and spins the other direction with a kick. Strickland stands firm, but has to defend himself as Du Plessis bears down on him. Strickland checks a kick and pecks with his jab, while Du Plessis pops in and out and scores a head kick. Du Plessis lets fly a body kick as he leans back and evades the straight punches aimed at him, contorting his body in a way to protect himself. The round ends with Du Plessis trying to reach from afar, only to get met with jabs to the body.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis

Round 3
The fighters motion to the crowd to get them into it, and they bump fists when the round kicks off. Du Plessis, appropriately, kicks. Lobbing strikes from both sides, he still cannot back Strickland off even if he lands cleanly enough to not absorb counters. Strickland uses a standing knee shield to block some kicks, and this lets “DDP” slug him in the face with a short but dangerous combination. Strickland’s chin holds stern, and he remains right in the face of the champ, where he scores a right to the body and a left to the head. Du Plessis lunges back at him with two looping hooks, and two more come along with a leg kick. Du Plessis drills the body with a kick, and a side kick bounces off the cup as Strickland signals he is not compromised from the foul. Du Plessis wraps a kick under the elbow and they continue striking, this time with an accidental foul on the side of Strickland with a reaching arm that pokes “DDP” in the eye. Du Plessis waves it off and keeps swinging with bad intentions, and he clips the challenger with a spinning back fist at the top of the melon. Du Plessis kicks with either leg and stutter-steps to come in with a left, but it is his body kick that lands cleanly more than once. Du Plessis shoves Strickland away, taking a jab off the chest so he can hurl a left hand. Strickland splits the guard with a jab and follows with two solid punches, and Du Plessis walks him down and bashes him upside the head with a spinning elbow. The two go wild for a moment with looping punches, and Strickland appears to finally get the attention of the champion. Strickland paws out his front foot, and Du Plessis hammers the body with a right hand. Strickland wraps two right hands up top, and Du Plessis pays him back with a left. When Strickland finds success on the feet, Du Plessis shoots in for a takedown and puts Strickland on his seat. Strickland climbs to his feet and connect with a right hand before the round closes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 4
The two reach the championship rounds, and Strickland is urged by his corner to attack but he does not come out in the round doing anything differently. The jabs do find their home, and Strickland prods out his front kick, but Du Plessis is able to blast past his defenses to at least partially connect with big strikes. Du Plessis jams his foot to the body and rushes forward throwing hammers, and a right hand at the end of a flurry staggers the former champ and shatters his nose. Strickland retreats, blood pouring out of his beak as he backpedals to stay in the fight. Like a dog with a bone, Du Plessis races after Strickland hoping to use the marked-up face like a bullseye. Du Plessis does not headhunt entirely, still working the body as he works his way in. Strickland ties him up, and Du Plessis elbows him back. Du Plessis reaches him at the end of a left hand, and they clash with right hands. Strickland starts throwing again, only to eat a punch on the nose that makes him have to pause. Du Plessis slowly works his way forward, ducking into a shot and drawing a serious reaction out of his opponent. “Tarzan” looks at the clock that reads 1:40, and Du Plessis finds an opening with a big right hand that the challenger does not love. Strickland starts lowing up on power, and a one-two surprises Du Plessis, who spins at him with a back fist and swarms him with punches. Du Plessis stays right in front of his fellow striker, not getting too reckless to fall into a counter. A one-two from “DDP” plants on the cheek, and he drills Strickland with another as Strickland’s jaw is made of sterner stuff. Du Plessis lumbers forward with looping strikes, letting Strickland’s jabs largely patter of the guard as he targets the body. The horn sounds as Du Plessis gets off a knee to the abdomen.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis

Round 5
Between rounds, the eternally tough Strickland asks for someone to help with his nose. When no one able to help him, he does it himself, snapping his nose back into alignment and slowing some of the immediate bleeding. Strickland stays in first gear, for the most part, jabbing his way into a few punches, but Du Plessis’ diversity of striking and willingness to target anywhere is giving him a major advantage compare to the boxing-heavy challenger. Du Plessis lunges to reach the target with an elbow, and blood flows again. Strickland jabs and dodges a spin, and when Du Plessis resets, he spins the other way and knocks Strickland back a few steps with the kick. Strickland puts a one-two down the pipe, prompting Du Plessis to respond in kind. Strickland finds his home with another pair of punches, and Du Plessis belts him in the belly to make him think twice. After Du Plessis scores a few punches, Strickland gives him a single one back. A spinning wheel kick brushes past the nose, and Du Plessis nearly falls over and is pushed away, gathering his thoughts before Strickland can get his hands on him. Du Plessis swarms his way forward, blitzing the challenger and letting jabs get through so he can hit harder. A few leaping right hands further bust the nose open of Strickland, and he leans down and gets kicked in the face. Du Plessis hand-fights to block punches and throw some back in rapid succession, and even the jabs and leg kicks have an impact. Strickland’s visage turns into a crimson mass, and a head kick does not make the visuals look better. Strickland jabs the body with kicks, and he gets kicked in the side for his attempt. Du Plessis reaches, scores and leans back, not letting the long Strickland get to him. Du Plessis tries for a punctuating takedown, and he gets clipped with a right hand after stuffing it. The two wing a few reckless punches, and another 25 minutes are in the books for these middleweights. The rivalry should be in the books and now part of history, as Strickland raises the arm of who should be the rightful victor: Du Plessis. The next challenger should be right around the corner, and the UFC has options in Nassourdine Imavov or Khamzat Chimaev. When “DDP” gets his next challenge, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (50-45 Du Plessis)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (50-45 Du Plessis)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (49-46 Du Plessis)

The Official Result
Dricus Du Plessis def. Sean Strickland via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo leans du Plessis, believing he has more ways to win with power, wrestling, and improved cardio after nose surgery. He admits to underestimating both fighters in the past. He is unsure about betting and will monitor the line movement. He notes Strickland's incredible cardio and takedown defense but thinks du Plessis's explosiveness and variety give him the edge.

Will monitor line movement; may bet on du Plessis
"I am going to lean drus here I think if we're looking at the two of these Fighters we're looking at their skill sets and their body of work"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks du Plessis, expecting a chaotic fight. He notes du Plessis has power and thrives in chaos, while Strickland lacks power and often goes to decision. He believes du Plessis will land a big shot early and finish Strickland in the first or second round, similar to his win over Whittaker. He worries about du Plessis's cardio in later rounds but thinks it won't matter.

first or second round knockout
"I'm going drus by first or second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Cody sees this as a 50-50 fight but leans Strickland due to his proven cardio, takedown defense, and ability to fight down the stretch. He notes du Plessis has a history of gassing in later rounds and getting finished, while Strickland conserves energy well and has a high output. Cody also mentions a live betting opportunity on Strickland if du Plessis starts strong.

Strickland late (round 4 or 5) at +1500 and +2100 respectively
"I think Sean Strickland wins... it's a good fight that Sean Strickland wins down the stretch."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Vreeland picks du Plessis, noting his submission grappling background and the possibility of winning a decision like Jared Cannonier did against Strickland. He mentions that Strickland landed more punches but Cannonier landed the memorable ones. Vreeland also notes that Strickland's grappling is not great, and du Plessis could use his grappling if needed. He sees it as a two-outcome fight: Strickland by decision or du Plessis by finish.

"I'm picking DDP too and I will say you know for a lot of people they're like oh I still worried about the cardio because he gased out in like one fight early in his UFC span and I don't …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Vreeland picks Dricus du Plessis to win the middleweight title. He believes Strickland's jab-and-volume game plan won't be enough against du Plessis's awkward but violent style and power. He notes du Plessis holds the record for most significant strikes in middleweight history and has proven he can go the distance. Vreeland also mentions he bet two units on du Plessis at +125, showing strong conviction.

"I took him in the spot at plus 125 I put two units on it um I think it should be a pick them"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Fox picks du Plessis, calling it a two-outcome fight: Strickland by decision or du Plessis by knockout. He notes that du Plessis decimated Robert Whittaker and has good grappling. Fox also mentions that Strickland's emotional state (being mad) is a reason not to pick him. He sees du Plessis winning by knockout or possibly decision.

"I'm gonna take a guy who we is he good Gumby is DDP good yet I know he beat Robert Whitaker but is he good Crush crushed Robert Whitaker I'm taking he decimated Robert Whitaker this is I think a …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)
Dricus du Plessis

Lucrative James picks Dricus du Plessis to retain his title, citing du Plessis's diverse skill set (spinning kicks, elbows, takedowns, submissions) compared to Strickland's limited pocket boxing. He notes du Plessis's durability and power advantage, the championship mentality, and improved cardio from the first fight. He predicts a clearer win than the split decision last time, possibly by KO or decision.

"my prediction is going to be dricker dupy retains his title and he's going to win the fight via decision or or by KO"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

I'm taking Strickland to win. He has the cardio and output advantage, and he can make du Plessis uncomfortable. If du Plessis doesn't finish him in the first two rounds, his cardio might fade and Strickland can take over. Strickland's awkward pressure style is hard to deal with. I think Strickland weathers the storm, walks him down, batters him, and possibly finishes in the fourth or fifth round. The -145 line is not bad for a fighter with those advantages.

round 4-5 TKO, decision victory
"give me Sean Strickland R for round five TKO and still"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Strickland but emphasizing the prop side. He worries about du Plessis's early power and wrestling but believes Strickland's pace and volume will overwhelm du Plessis in later rounds. He compares it to the Abus Magomedov fight where Strickland survived an early onslaught and took over.

du Plessis round 1 KO at +1000, du Plessis KO at +300, Strickland round 4 at +1500, Strickland round 5 at +2100
"Strickland will be the official pick but I think the prop side is how I'm going to attack this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis, comparing him to Jared Cannonier but with more durability and forward pressure. He notes Strickland's struggles against grapplers and fighters who push forward. He highlights du Plessis's improved cardio, low kicks, and multi-shot combos. He predicts a TKO in round two, possibly after dropping Strickland.

TKO, round 2
"drias dupi in my opinion is going to win this fight by TKO or submission I see this happening at some point in the second round or maybe late in the first"
TKO (punches) R2 2:23 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 31 of 70 44% 32 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Robert Whittaker 1 62 of 104 59% 74 of 118 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 22 of 44 50% 23 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Robert Whittaker 0 29 of 54 53% 41 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 9 of 26 34% 9 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 1 33 of 50 66% 33 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 31 of 70 44% 23 of 59 2 of 4 6 of 7 29 of 68 2 of 2 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 62 of 104 59% 38 of 77 11 of 13 13 of 14 41 of 77 8 of 10 13 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 22 of 44 50% 16 of 35 2 of 4 4 of 5 21 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 29 of 54 53% 13 of 36 9 of 10 7 of 8 21 of 44 0 of 0 8 of 10
2 Dricus du Plessis 9 of 26 34% 7 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 33 of 50 66% 25 of 41 2 of 3 6 of 6 20 of 33 8 of 10 5 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Angelo is very confident in Whittaker, calling it a 'mauling'. He praises Whittaker's diverse striking, takedowns, and well-roundedness, noting his only losses since 2014 are to Adesanya. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy and lacking technique, relying on energy and explosiveness. He thinks Whittaker will out-strike, out-work, and potentially stop du Plessis. He recommends parlaying Whittaker.

Parlay recommended, possible stoppage
"I think this is a mauling I think trick is too busy is tough I think he might be a big deal soon in the division but I just think Robert Whittaker is going to get this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Whittaker is better everywhere: striking, wrestling, grappling, and cardio. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy, getting wobbled, taken down, and gassing out in fights. He believes Whittaker will finish du Plessis in the second or third round, either by ground and pound or a head kick. He acknowledges that du Plessis finds ways to win but says this is a huge step up in competition.

second round knockout
"give me Robert Whitaker to win this fight I'll say second round knockout for him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Whittaker but is worried about the -400 moneyline, so he bets the under 2.5 rounds. He thinks du Plessis will be reckless and leave himself open, leading to a finish by Whittaker. He notes Whittaker has been rocked in many fights but expects him to land a big shot. He believes du Plessis's aggression will be his downfall.

Under 2.5 rounds (-130, -132), Whittaker by KO/TKO
"I took the under two and a half rounds at minus 130 and minus 132. uh Robert Whitaker will be my pick here"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Connor picks Whittaker, emphasizing that du Plessis is 'actually quite bad at fighting' and has been carried by favorable matchups. He notes that Whittaker's jab and movement will be too much for du Plessis's clumsy pressure. Connor warns that Whittaker's tendency to chase combinations could leave him vulnerable, but overall he expects a dominant performance.

"Robert Whittaker could out wrestle him if he wanted to. He should be able to just light his ass up with jabs."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Levi picks Whittaker, describing him as a Hall of Famer with no weaknesses. He notes that du Plessis is awkward and violent but too sloppy for a technician like Whittaker. Levi dismisses the narrative that du Plessis's nose surgery will fix his gas tank issues, predicting that getting punched in the nose again will cause the same problems. He expects Whittaker to outclass du Plessis, possibly with a finish, and mentions that the only value on du Plessis is via KO prop at plus money. Levi also notes that du Plessis's wild style will leave him open to a head kick or right hand from the open stance.

KO prop on du Plessis at plus money is the only place to look for him
"I'm going Robert Whittaker display build those plans and put on a clinic against drikis."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Dricus du Plessis

James thinks the line is wide and Dricus du Plessis deserves a bet, but he is not super confident he will win. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop because du Plessis rarely goes to decision and has power and physicality to finish. He notes Whittaker has been dropped many times and du Plessis can finish from any position. However, if du Plessis doesn't finish early, he may gas and Whittaker's superior technique takes over.

Under 2.5 rounds; fight doesn't go to decision
"I do think that the line is wide I do think that trick is duplicity deserves deserves a bet"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker has superior cardio, striking, and speed. Du Plessis is powerful but has cardio issues and labored movement. Whittaker will use his in-and-out footwork and rear high kick to find a knockout in the second or third round. Fight doesn't go to decision is a strong prop.

fight doesn't go to decision
"fight doesn't go to decision probably my favorite spot considering it's sitting around that minus 160 range the last time I saw it but I think that we're going to see a knockout here and I think it's going to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul picks Whittaker on the moneyline, citing his class everywhere and ability to adjust mid-fight. He notes du Plessis is wild and may overwhelm lesser opponents but not Whittaker. He thinks Whittaker's jab and ring IQ will be key. He is unsure about a knockout prop but leans toward Whittaker by KO or decision.

Whittaker by KO/TKO, under 2.5 rounds
"I think Robert Whitaker has got a class pretty much everywhere but the thing with Drake is in terms of a knockout prop is like man he got a hard hat on him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision (30-27 or 30-26). He argues that Whittaker's patience and experience in five-round fights will prevent him from making the mistakes that du Plessis capitalizes on. He believes Whittaker is superior on the feet and in scrambles, and that du Plessis' wins have come from opponents overextending. He notes Whittaker's humility as a positive factor.

wins by decision 30-27 or 30-26
"I think Whitaker wins this one by decision 30 27 maybe 30 26 with a dominant third round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Zane picks Whittaker confidently, stating that du Plessis has no area of his game that should beat Whittaker. He criticizes du Plessis's poor technique, especially his wrestling and striking, and notes that Whittaker's jab and head kicks will be too much. Zane acknowledges du Plessis's clear-headedness but believes Whittaker's superior skill and experience will prevail.

"There's nothing about his game that should beat Robert Whittaker. Nope, literally nothing."
WIN vs Derek Brunson
TKO (corner stoppage) R2 4:59 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 37 of 84 44% 43 of 90 1 of 2 50% 1 1 2:30
Derek Brunson 1 71 of 115 61% 84 of 132 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 12 of 23 52% 18 of 29 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:28
Derek Brunson 0 9 of 14 64% 16 of 24 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:55
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 25 of 61 40% 25 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Derek Brunson 1 62 of 101 61% 68 of 108 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 37 of 84 44% 27 of 71 9 of 12 1 of 1 30 of 74 3 of 5 4 of 5
Derek Brunson 71 of 115 61% 55 of 97 8 of 9 8 of 9 53 of 95 3 of 3 15 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 12 of 23 52% 11 of 21 0 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 17 0 of 1 4 of 5
Derek Brunson 9 of 14 64% 6 of 11 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 6 2 of 2 4 of 6
2 Dricus du Plessis 25 of 61 40% 16 of 50 9 of 11 0 of 0 22 of 57 3 of 4 0 of 0
Derek Brunson 62 of 101 61% 49 of 86 6 of 7 7 of 8 50 of 89 1 of 1 11 of 11
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo leans towards Dricus du Plessis, despite acknowledging that Derek Brunson has a clear path to victory via wrestling. He is concerned about Brunson's age, chin, and cardio after his loss to Jared Cannonier. Angelo notes that du Plessis is dangerous and can blitz forward, and he believes Brunson may fold under pressure.

"I've had drikas as the plaque the pick I literally I told Jacob earlier I said I think I'm gonna I think I'm gonna flip this pick like thick Brunson should win this but I just can't trust the chin"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his power and submission ability, and his ability to fight through fatigue. He notes Brunson's age (39), questionable chin, and talk of retirement. He predicts Brunson may have early success wrestling, but du Plessis will land a big shot and knock him out in the second round.

second round knockout
"I'm gonna take drinkas to win this fight I'm gonna say he does eventually catch Brunson on the feet I'm gonna say he knocks out Brunson in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Cody expects du Plessis to win inside the distance. He notes Brunson's age (39), slowing reflexes, and tendency to get caught with his chin up. He thinks du Plessis's power and durability will be too much as the fight progresses.

Dricus du Plessis inside the distance (-110)
"I think Drake has catches them so do places inside the distance"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Connor picks Derek Brunson, believing his superior wrestling and technical striking will allow him to control the fight. He notes that du Plessis is chaotic and willing to make catastrophic errors, which Brunson can exploit to get takedowns and dominate on the ground. However, Connor acknowledges that if Brunson slows down and du Plessis's relentless pressure takes over, Brunson could fall apart.

"I gotta pick Brunson. I got to pick this to be the but the point where that stops working. But if it does if it's not then you know good on do plus e."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Jacob is confident in Dricus du Plessis, calling Brunson overrated and noting that his takedowns have come against weak wrestlers. He believes Brunson panics when hit and that du Plessis will spark him early. Jacob thinks Brunson will retire after this fight.

"duplessy is gonna dominate this dude he should not be in the UFC anymore he's gonna retire after this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Du Plessis is an athletic freak with big power and explosiveness. Brunson is 39, has durability issues, and was knocked out by Jared Cannonier. Du Plessis will land big shots as the fight goes on and knock Brunson out.

du Plessis by knockout
"I believe that Brunson does have a car or durability issue still... I have no doubt that he'll be able to land that knockout blow here to get his hand raised so look for duplex's money line or even duplexes …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Paul agrees with Cody, picking du Plessis inside the distance. He thinks Brunson will have early success but fade, and du Plessis will catch him. He likes the inside distance prop at -110.

Dricus du Plessis inside the distance (-110)
"I think Rick is inside the distance is the play here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to win by guillotine choke, citing du Plessis' underrated grappling and Brunson's tendency to shoot for panic takedowns. He believes du Plessis will finish Brunson in the second round.

Guillotine finish predicted, second round finish
"I'm gonna go with dricus du plessis with his guillotine... I think he will beat Derek Branson by a second round finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Zane also picks Brunson, citing his technical advantages everywhere and the likelihood that he will get early takedowns against du Plessis's wild entries. He notes that du Plessis's wrestling is messy and he often puts himself in bad positions, which Brunson can capitalize on. Zane adds that while du Plessis has great cardio and durability, Brunson's power and top control should be enough to secure a win.

"I'm gonna pick Brunson. I got to pick this to be the but the point where that stops working."
WIN vs Darren Till
Submission (face crank) R3 2:43 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 35 of 70 50% 58 of 94 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:23
Darren Till 0 86 of 147 58% 117 of 197 6 of 6 100% 3 0 5:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 6 of 12 50% 9 of 15 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:23
Darren Till 0 60 of 85 70% 82 of 126 3 of 3 100% 1 0 3:56
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 18 of 33 54% 38 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Darren Till 0 10 of 28 35% 19 of 37 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:27
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Darren Till 0 16 of 34 47% 16 of 34 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 35 of 70 50% 26 of 57 6 of 9 3 of 4 29 of 60 1 of 1 5 of 9
Darren Till 86 of 147 58% 69 of 123 4 of 7 13 of 17 28 of 59 25 of 40 33 of 48
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 6 of 12 50% 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 9
Darren Till 60 of 85 70% 54 of 77 2 of 3 4 of 5 4 of 6 25 of 38 31 of 41
2 Dricus du Plessis 18 of 33 54% 12 of 26 3 of 3 3 of 4 17 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Darren Till 10 of 28 35% 4 of 21 1 of 2 5 of 5 10 of 24 0 of 2 0 of 2
3 Dricus du Plessis 11 of 25 44% 9 of 20 2 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Darren Till 16 of 34 47% 11 of 25 1 of 2 4 of 7 14 of 29 0 of 0 2 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Darren Till

Angelo picks Till as an underdog, believing Till's boxing and range control will be too much for du Plessis, who rushes forward with his chin up. He notes Till's recent struggles with injuries and mental health, and a DUI, making him nervous about his moneyline bet. However, he argues that Till's losses came to elite fighters who would also beat du Plessis.

Moneyline bet placed earlier (odds not specified).
"Till's gonna be the pick here I do have a money line bet on him I've had that for a little while now I'm nervous about it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his volume, power, and submission game, while questioning Darren Till's mentality and recent form. He notes Till has been submitted multiple times and has low volume. He expects du Plessis to win by second round submission, but acknowledges Till has a puncher's chance.

du Plessis wins by second round submission
"I like Rodriguez to win this fight I like and win by finish I'll take drikas to win by I'll say second round submission win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Darren Till

Cody picks Darren Till as a dog, citing the stylistic matchup. He notes Till is a clean counter-striker with a nasty left hand, while du Plessis leads with his chin up and is wild. He thinks du Plessis will panic shoot takedowns, which Till can defend and counter. He acknowledges Till's low output and untrustworthiness but sees this as a good spot for him.

"I'm in the same boat as you I want to bet him he's the underdog right first dog that we like that plus money looks good but he's such an untrustworthy guy Darren till"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Connor picks du Plessis, citing his relentless pace, durability, and power. He notes Till is low output, inconsistent, and does his best work in the first round. Connor believes du Plessis will survive early trouble and overwhelm Till with constant pressure, as Till's confidence has eroded after recent losses and injuries.

Odds: du Plessis opened -135, now -186; Till opened +115, now +154.
"I trust Rick is duplexes just to go out there and do the one thing. I trust because duplexes to show up and be like an absolutely brutal puncher, just a clubber for three rounds, no matter what."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Levi picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his massive output advantage over Darren Till. He notes Till has never landed 50 strikes in a UFC fight, while du Plessis landed 113 against Brad Tavares. Levi believes du Plessis's awkward but effective striking, power, and grappling (body lock, back takes) will overwhelm Till if the fight goes past the first round. He acknowledges Till's chance to land a sniper shot but thinks du Plessis will outwork and break him. Levi agrees with the line movement from -135 to -190.

Mentions possibility of du Plessis winning by submission (back take choke).
"I got drika's duplicity to look awkward out there to look stiff to look rigid but when he is still on the chin Till's gonna be like God damn"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Lock picks du Plessis to get his hand raised, and recommends buying stocks on him on PredictionStrike at $1.54, as he is half the price of Till and will see a solid bump with a win. He is not interested in du Plessis on the moneyline at -180 due to the question mark that Till brings, but sees PredictionStrike as a way to exploit value. For Till, he suggests the moneyline as a dog rather than investing on PredictionStrike at $3.00.

"I'm gonna go on the opposite side here I do think duplexes is the one that gets Sunrise but uh yeah I would likely buy some stocks here on prediction strike on duplexes and hopefully cash this weekend"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Darren Till

Paul leans towards Darren Till as a dog, noting the matchup is good for Till because du Plessis is not an elite wrestler and leaves his chin up. He thinks Till can hang back and pick him off. However, he is hesitant because Till throws low volume and is hard to trust with money. He decides slightly on Till due to the plus money.

"I'm gonna decide ever so slightly on the side of Darren till in this matchup but I don't know if I can trust him with my money Cody"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Darren Till, citing Till's lack of recent form and physical decline. He believes du Plessis is a real athlete with power and grappling ability, and will mix in takedowns after making Till cautious with his striking. He predicts du Plessis will finish Till via mounted guillotine or ground and pound in the later rounds.

"I'm going with dracus to bless his over Darren till"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Zane picks du Plessis, agreeing that Till's low output and inconsistency are major issues. He notes du Plessis is a messy but relentless fighter who will keep coming, and Till's confidence is shaken. Zane acknowledges du Plessis could get knocked out but trusts his durability and pace.

Odds: du Plessis opened -135, now -186; Till opened +115, now +154.
"I'll pick the Plessy as well, but man, someday the wheels are going to fly off that duplex in the most spectacular fashion imaginable."
WIN vs Brad Tavares
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Jul 02, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 82 of 150 54% 98 of 167 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:01
Brad Tavares 0 113 of 212 53% 123 of 222 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 10 of 13 76% 25 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:58
Brad Tavares 0 14 of 26 53% 23 of 35 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:18
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 33 of 59 55% 33 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Brad Tavares 0 39 of 75 52% 39 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 39 of 78 50% 40 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Brad Tavares 0 60 of 111 54% 61 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 82 of 150 54% 55 of 113 21 of 31 6 of 6 69 of 132 12 of 16 1 of 2
Brad Tavares 113 of 212 53% 79 of 169 17 of 21 17 of 22 97 of 192 14 of 18 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 10 of 13 76% 8 of 10 2 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 8 3 of 3 1 of 2
Brad Tavares 14 of 26 53% 10 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 4 9 of 20 3 of 4 2 of 2
2 Dricus du Plessis 33 of 59 55% 19 of 41 10 of 14 4 of 4 28 of 52 5 of 7 0 of 0
Brad Tavares 39 of 75 52% 28 of 61 5 of 6 6 of 8 33 of 66 6 of 9 0 of 0
3 Dricus du Plessis 39 of 78 50% 28 of 62 9 of 14 2 of 2 35 of 72 4 of 6 0 of 0
Brad Tavares 60 of 111 54% 41 of 89 10 of 12 9 of 10 55 of 106 5 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo leans toward Dricus du Plessis, noting his explosive striking and leg kicks, as well as his grappling ability. He is concerned about Tavares' inactivity and du Plessis' cardio over three rounds. He calls it a no-bet fight due to uncertainty.

"I do think i'm leaning towards dracus here this is a no bet fight for me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady is confident in Dricus du Plessis, citing his 100% finish rate and power. He believes du Plessis will knock out Brad Tavares, who has been knocked out three times before. He notes Tavares has good takedown defense, so the fight stays standing, where du Plessis's power prevails.

du Plessis by first round knockout
"give me duplicity to win by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Cody thinks du Plessis's unorthodox power will be too much for Tavares, who is serviceable but not elite. He expects du Plessis to land a big shot and finish, though he notes Tavares could outpoint if it stays at range.

"I'm gonna go with the places to get the job done"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 30, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Levi picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his awkward but violent style and power. He notes that du Plessis has a knack for finding finishes and that Tavares' chin has been cracked before. However, he is concerned about Tavares' durability and decision-winning ability if the fight goes the distance. Levi missed the line at plus money and is not interested at -155, so he does not bet.

Missed the line; no bet at -155; would have bet at plus money.
"my pick is drika's duplicity... i missed the line on drikas... minus 155 i'm no longer interested"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 1, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The host initially leaned Tavares but flipped to du Plessis after considering Tavares's history of being knocked out by power strikers. Du Plessis has knockout power and speed, and Tavares has been finished by strikers like Shabazyan and Whittaker. Du Plessis by KO is the preferred bet rather than the moneyline.

du Plessis by KO at +165 to +185
"i think i'm going to end up on the duplex c side here i do think uh his speed will eventually catch up to tavares"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Paul also picks du Plessis, noting he missed the better price. He thinks du Plessis's power will be the difference, but isn't overly confident.

"I'm going with two pluses to get the job done as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to win by submission in the second round. He highlights du Plessis's grappling credentials, including a guillotine choke over Yannick Bahati, and his ability to pull submissions from standing positions. He notes Brad Tavares has good takedown defense but that du Plessis's power and unorthodox entries will be the difference, predicting a guillotine finish.

submission in round 2
"i can see him getting a guillotine finish over brad tavares in the second round of this contest"
Trevin Giles - Fight History
CANCEL vs Andreas Gustafsson
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Andreas Gustafsson

Big Brady picks Andreas Gustafsson, impressed by his relentless pressure and cardio, describing him as a fighter who fights like a man possessed. He criticizes Trevin Giles for not fighting to his strengths, lacking urgency, and having poor durability (gets knocked out often). He expects Gustafsson to land a big elbow in the clinch and finish Giles in the second round.

second round knockout
"I like Gustoson. Very curious to see where this line goes cuz like I said, I I just expect August Gustoson to be a lot bigger of a favorite with how low people are and and quite frankly should be …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Andreas Gustafsson

Matt picks Andreas Gustafsson to win by knockout. He notes that Giles is on a three-fight losing streak and seems to have lost durability, allowing opponents to dictate pace. Gustafsson is a strong clinch fighter who wears opponents down. Matt expects Gustafsson to control Giles in the clinch and finish him in the second or third round.

Gustafsson by KO +185, Giles by decision +410, Giles by KO +480
"I have to go with Gustoson. I'm going to go Gustiffson knockout plus 185."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 28, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Andreas Gustafsson

The MMA Guru picks Andreas Gustafsson by TKO, citing Trevin Giles' lack of durability and full-time commitment (police officer). He notes Giles often takes short-notice fights and has been finished many times. He believes Gustafsson, a full-time fighter, will put Giles away.

TKO finish
"I'm going to have to go against Trevan Giles here and take the full-time fighter of Andreas Gustoson... Andreas Gustoson has put him away with a TKO finish."
LOSS vs Mike Malott
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Nov 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mike Malott 0 59 of 130 45% 59 of 130 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Trevin Giles 0 34 of 78 43% 34 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mike Malott 0 12 of 37 32% 12 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Trevin Giles 0 9 of 16 56% 9 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mike Malott 0 28 of 54 51% 28 of 54 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Trevin Giles 0 17 of 32 53% 17 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Mike Malott 0 19 of 39 48% 19 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Trevin Giles 0 8 of 30 26% 8 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mike Malott 59 of 130 45% 22 of 82 19 of 28 18 of 20 59 of 129 0 of 1 0 of 0
Trevin Giles 34 of 78 43% 23 of 64 3 of 5 8 of 9 34 of 77 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mike Malott 12 of 37 32% 2 of 24 4 of 7 6 of 6 12 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Trevin Giles 9 of 16 56% 4 of 10 0 of 1 5 of 5 9 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mike Malott 28 of 54 51% 13 of 34 8 of 11 7 of 9 28 of 53 0 of 1 0 of 0
Trevin Giles 17 of 32 53% 13 of 28 2 of 2 2 of 2 17 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Mike Malott 19 of 39 48% 7 of 24 7 of 10 5 of 5 19 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Trevin Giles 8 of 30 26% 6 of 26 1 of 2 1 of 2 8 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Trevin Giles vs. Mike Malott
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Malott (-250), Giles (+205)

Round 1
As it tends to do lately, the UFC has plugged in a fight promising violence in the opener of its main card. Malott (10-2-1, 3-1 UFC) will have the crowd behind him when he battles Houston native Giles (16-6, 7-6 UFC). The former has seen all 10 of his wins end inside the distance, while all of Giles’ pro defeats have come via stoppage. Anything can and often does happen in MMA, so even with Malott one of the largest betting favorites tonight, all that matters is the activity when the cage door closes. When it does, referee Andy Social is installed as the Octagon commander, and he starts the clock while the competitors do not touch gloves. Malott tries to strike first, but his front kick misses the mark. Once more, the Canadians in the building show their lack of support for Justin Trudeau, and the fighters ignore the chants. They measure one another from afar, pitching single strikes at one another and bouncing them off one another’s guard. The enthusiasm of the crowd shifts to “Let’s go Mike,” who promptly kicks Giles upside the head. Giles keeps his jab out to not let Malott get to him, and he chops at the low calf a few times. Malott winds a right hand over the top, and Giles checks a low kick. Giles slams his foot on the front leg of his opponent, and every impact sounds more bone-on-bone than slapping off skin. Malott digs deep with a hard low kick, and the jabs from Giles have reddened up the Canadian’s nose. Malott sprints forward, and when countered, blood trickles out of a cut on the bridge of his nose. Giles targets the new cut with jabs, and Malott chambers and fires three kicks that are all guarded. Giles paws out with a low kick and rifles off a right hand that brushes past his foe’s hair. Giles keeps his guard up to defend head kicks that fly fairly frequently, and Malott mixes things up with a hard calf kick. Giles parries a front kick and absorbs another heavy low kick, and he tries to push out a jab and is countered with a combination of punches. Giles snaps out a mean jab, and he tosses away a high kick and blocks a spinning back kick. The Texan turns his shin towards a calf kick, and he ducks a few looping punches and breathes a sigh of relief. Giles comes up hitting air with an overhand right, and he blocks a head kick right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Giles
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Giles
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Giles

Round 2
Malott wants to get right down to business to start the second round, and Giles meets him in the middle with powerful punches. Giles defends a head kick and takes a right hand and a low kick, and he looks for a clubbing right hand over the top that glances off the shoulder. Giles kicks the front leg, and Malott responds with a front kick. When seeing it land, Malott targets the same spot on the abdomen with the ball of his foot, drawing a reaction out of an energized Giles. The Texan connects with a jab and two follow-up punches, and Malott keeps him honest by slinging head kicks at him. Giles wings two huge punches, and a third whooshes past the Canuck. Malott jabs the body with a front kick from either let, and he looses a heavy body kick that Giles catches and sets down. Giles slides back from a high kick, and he lunges in and gets countered with a short right hand. Giles plods ever forward, staying light on his feet to protect himself from kicks, and still keeps a solid base to shut down a takedown effort. Malott kicks the front leg twice, and he chambers and fires a third from the other side. Giles prods out a heavy jab, and he follows one with a wide overhand right. Malott uses front kick after front kick to keep Giles from reaching him with his big punches, but this results in them taking turns. Malott splits the guard with a big right hand, and Giles blinks it out and crouches down to try to defend a low kick. Malott has a head kick zoom past his foe, and Giles looks for a right hand over the top but absorbs a clean spinning back kick to the ribcage. “The Problem” gives Malott a problem to think about in the form of a huge right hand, and Malott welcomes it and slings back. Malott kicks his foe in the ribs, and he tries to spin with it and then turn through with a head kick, but Giles watches them all whiz by his face without concern. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Giles
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Malott

Round 3
A Giles jab starts the round, but Malott is quick to hop on his bike and peck away with kicks to all targets. A front kick narrowly misses the jaw, and Giles tries to make him pay with a booming right hand. Malott rolls with it and sticks out a jab, and he bounces up and down and is slapped in the face with a surprise question-mark kick. Malott sinks two leg kicks low, and Giles has to pull his leg back and thinks about changing stances. Malott kicks him in the head, with the impact of the blow knocking him back a step despite it colliding with his glove. Malott drives a leg kick to the calf, and Giles pushes forward swinging hammers but has his hands batted away. Malott uses a jab to open up a front kick from either foot, and he overswings and is lucky to not get caught with a looping strike. Malott brings his shin up quickly, but it is his short left hand when Giles bares down on him that lands more effectively. Giles whiffs, dodges a spin kick and takes a kick on the ribs. Malott’s front kick keeps him at a safe range, and he checks a kick while switching stances. Giles hits nothing but air with huge right hands, and Malott picks his shots carefully and does not expose himself for much. A body kick from the Canadian is caught, and Giles whips a right hand at him but it just grazes off the cheek. Malott drops his hands and looses a head kick that ricochets off the raised guard of his opponent, and he is met with a jab to the body on the way out. Malott freezes up his opponent with his feints and fakes, and he shuts down a body lock attempt and thumps Giles with a calf kick. A head kick goes wide from “Proper Mike,” who properly ends the middling fight with a sharp jab.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malott (29-28 Malott)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Malott (29-28 Giles)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Malott (29-28 Malott)

The Official Result
Mike Malott def. Trevin Giles via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Angelo picks Mike Malott despite his recent quit against Neil Magny, calling it a 'quitters discount.' He thinks Malott is better everywhere except the jab, and should be faster, stronger, and a better wrestler. He acknowledges the PTSD from the quit but says Malott should win and is more affordable than he should be. He hesitates to bet due to the quit but thinks it's probably worth betting.

quitters discount
"Mike mot's going to be the pick I do have some Vietnam meme style flashbacks of him just quitting with a couple of seconds left so it's hard for me to pull the trigger in a bet but I should …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Big Brady picks Mike Malott to win by second-round submission. He acknowledges Malott's questionable chin and cardio but notes that Trevin Giles has a history of finding ways to lose, often by finish (six finish losses). Brady expects Giles to get submitted again, possibly via club and sub. He thinks Malott's power and submission threat will be too much for Giles.

submission in round 2
"give me a Mike mot I'll say submit trevan Giles in the second round maybe even a club and Subs yeah Mike mot second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Cody picks Mike Malott, citing his athleticism, technical striking, and grappling advantage. He notes that Malott took Giles down easily in a previous grappling match and believes he can do so again. He acknowledges Malott's cardio issues in the Neil Magny fight but trusts that Malott has made adjustments. He also mentions Giles's jab as a concern but believes Malott's speed and wrestling will prevail.

"I got Mike mot I think he'll probably end up on the second line but just a little sliver of uncertainty is going to keep him off the first line likely for me this week."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Daniel Vreeland picks Mike Malott, citing Trevin Giles's history of imploding in fights despite looking good early. He references Giles's multiple comeback losses and a previous grappling match where Giles lost after competing early. Vreeland expects Giles to start strong but eventually make a mistake, allowing Malott to secure an opportunistic finish. He notes the price is high but is confident in the pick.

"I'm G pick Mike mot to to get an opportunistic finish"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Trevin Giles

Lucrative James picks Trevin Giles as a value bet, despite predicting Malott is more likely to win. He notes Malott's questionable durability and that Giles has a real chance to win. He likes the fight doesn't go to decision prop as a hedge, expecting a finish either way.

fight doesn't go to decision
"small bet on trevan Gils at the price makes sense for me and maybe a bigger bet on the fight doesn't go to decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Trevin Giles

Malott can land big power and put Giles away, but Giles' striking speed and overall advantage should allow him to put pace on Malott and run away late, getting a finish in the second or third round.

finish in second or third round
"I believe Giles's striking speed and overall Advantage here should allow him to put up pace on Malott and run away late with this matchup and end up getting a finish in the second or third round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Paul also picks Malott, noting his familiarity with Giles from their grappling match and his improved mindset after the Magny loss. He believes Malott's speed and technique will overcome Giles's jab, and that Giles's cardio is also questionable. He sees Malott as the rightful favorite and likely a top pick in their PRP.

"I think he's the rightful favor and I figure he probably going to be relatively at the top of your PRP this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mike Malott

The Guru picks Mike Malott over Trevin Giles, citing Malott's grappling advantage and leg kicks. He notes Malott's dominant grappling against Neil Magny and believes he can out-grapple Giles. He predicts a submission win.

submission
"I'm going to go with Mike mallow here I think he'll be able to outg Grapple Trevon Giles and I'll take him by submission"
LOSS vs Carlos Prates
KO (punch) R2 4:03 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Prates 0 68 of 102 66% 70 of 105 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:28
Trevin Giles 1 37 of 72 51% 38 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Prates 0 35 of 55 63% 35 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Trevin Giles 0 24 of 44 54% 24 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carlos Prates 0 33 of 47 70% 35 of 50 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:28
Trevin Giles 1 13 of 28 46% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Prates 68 of 102 66% 25 of 51 2 of 2 41 of 49 67 of 100 1 of 2 0 of 0
Trevin Giles 37 of 72 51% 3 of 24 18 of 26 16 of 22 37 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Prates 35 of 55 63% 10 of 22 0 of 0 25 of 33 35 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Trevin Giles 24 of 44 54% 2 of 12 9 of 13 13 of 19 24 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carlos Prates 33 of 47 70% 15 of 29 2 of 2 16 of 16 32 of 45 1 of 2 0 of 0
Trevin Giles 13 of 28 46% 1 of 12 9 of 13 3 of 3 13 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Trevin Giles vs. Carlos Prates
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prates (-270), Giles (+220)

Round 1
The long preliminary card wraps up with welterweights on the docket, as longtime vet Giles (16-5, 7-5 UFC) enters into his 13th UFC fight against promotional neophyte Prates (17-6, 0-0 UFC)—although the debuting Brazilian holds the overall experience edge at 23 to 21 fights. Both fighters have abilities to finish the fight anywhere, and they have also suffered more stoppage losses than by decision. Referee Mike Beltran draws the charge for this preliminary headliner, and it begins as the 170ers touch ‘em up. Giles introduces himself with a jumping side kick, and he smacks Prates’ front leg with several times in rapid succession. Prates preemptively raises his leg after the early barrage of kicks, looking to check these kicks coming at him, and Giles ignores it and keeps kicking it. Prates quickly chambers and releases a kick to the body, and Giles ignores it and kicks Prates in the knee. Beltran warns them for outstretched fingers, and Prates nods and kicks Giles in the chest. Prates goes high with a kick that bounces off the guard, and Giles plods after him and nails him with a one-two. Prates bounces off the fencing to reset, and he starts jabbing with the ball of his foot. Prates looks to use his rangy legs to keep Giles away from him, and Giles stays ready to block the bigger kicks while getting inside the others. Prates lunges forward with three punches, and Giles ducks away from it. Giles comes out swinging, and Prates defends himself and tries to reply with a kick. Giles cracks Prates with a left hook in the midst of a combination, and Prates wears it well and tries to retaliate with a knee. Giles tosses out two punches and gets away in time to avoid counters, and Prates sweeps out kicks that partially land at best. Giles continues prodding at the lead knee, and he takes a knee on the chest from his opponent. The opening frame wraps as Prates jump at him with a knee, and Giles hops away.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Giles
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Giles
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Giles

Round 2
The welterweights tap their gloves together before engaging, and Prates starts off by kicking the chest. Giles gets off two inside leg kicks to stumble Prates, and the taller man regains his composure only to get knocked back by the Texan’s fists. Prates kicks the body and then looks for step-in knee, and Giles grabs him in an effort to take him down. Prates shoves him away and looks for long kicks, while Giles crowds him with short three-punch salvos. Prates takes at least one clean punch each time Giles rushes him, and his counters are limited to a high knee that has not landed cleanly more than once. Giles allows Prates to swing a kick by him so that he can shoot for a double, and the American is unable to complete it. Prates defends with his back to the wall with short strikes, and Giles comes over the top with an elbow that splits the corner of Prates’ right eyebrow. Prates connects with a big knee as he shuts down Giles’ takedown efforts, but he cannot seem to stop Giles from teeing off on him with four punches at a time.
Prates comes in faking with a knee, reaches out with a right hand and rifles a left hand down the pipe. Giles is out before his head hits the mat, and Prates does not need to follow up as he sees Giles is unconscious while Beltran gets between them.
What a stunning moment, staging a mighty comeback and introducing himself to the stacked 170-pound weight class with a vicious knockout.

The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Trevin Giles R2 4:03 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Angelo notes that Carlos Prates is a dangerous striker with big power, good range control, and kicks to all levels, with a stance similar to Alex Pereira. Trevin Giles has a great jab and athleticism, but needs to close distance to land it, which could leave him open to kicks. Angelo thinks Prates will pass the test and win, but acknowledges Giles' jab could be frustrating.

"I do think protest is going to pass that test I do think he wins this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Prates has a 78-inch reach and many tools to finish, including a jab that can knock out opponents, head kicks, and knees. He thinks Giles has poor durability and cardio, and has been brutally finished by prospects before. He expects Prates to knock him out early.

first round knockout
"I think proess does knock him out in the first round and I think there will be an officer down come Saturday so G Carlos press to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by first round …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Cody picks Prates, noting his power and length. He criticizes Giles for being lethargic and lacking volume, and points out that Giles has not improved. Prates is a dangerous striker with a good chin. Cody thinks Prates will stand in the pocket and land the bigger shots, though he is not confident enough to bet heavily.

"PES is not super high I guess on my parlays or my my list of confidence but yes he I think he does win the fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Prates has a Muay Thai background with improved takedown defense and a 4-inch reach advantage. He should be able to stuff Giles' early takedowns and then find a knockout in the second or third round as Giles slows down. Giles has durability issues from cutting to welterweight. Prates is experienced enough to handle a grappler.

"I think after stuffing a couple of the early takedowns from Gils we'll see prz really get comfortable in the cage and eventually find a Knockout over JS in the first probably in the the second or third round as …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Paul also picks Prates, noting Giles' inconsistency and low output. He thinks Prates' length and technical striking will be too much. Giles could win if he wrestles, but Paul doubts he will. Prates is the pick, but Paul is not forcing action at -260.

"prus is going to be the pick for me but minus 260 UFC debut versus a veteran I mean there's 14 fights on the card I'm not going to be forcing any action on Carlos prus myself"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Prates because he believes Prates has hit another level in his career, with a wicked winning streak against decent competition. He praises Prates' range, kicks, and a straight right hand with no telegraph. He thinks Prates can kick at range and eventually score a second-round KO. He notes that Trevin Giles has not had impressive performances recently.

second round KO
"I'm going with Carlos prattes over Trevon Giles... I think prattes can kick at him at range bug him with it and eventually get into the boxing and maybe score a second round KO."
LOSS vs Gabriel Bonfim
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 1:13 · UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Jul 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gabriel Bonfim 0 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:26
Trevin Giles 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gabriel Bonfim 0 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:26
Trevin Giles 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gabriel Bonfim 3 of 11 27% 2 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Trevin Giles 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gabriel Bonfim 3 of 11 27% 2 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Trevin Giles 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Trevin Giles
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bonfim (-320), Giles (+265)

Round 1
Concluding the prelims is a 170-pound scrap between two promising fighters age 30 or younger. With welterweight so logjammed, a win tonight for the undefeated Bonfim (14-0, 1-0 UFC) or resilient Giles (16-4, 7-4 UFC) may help raise them to greater heights in the weight class. Before said action, the two men touch ‘em up, and referee Herb Dean is ready to take charge of what comes next. Bonfim walks forward fearlessly, and he blocks a head kick that flies at him immediately. Bonfim comes forward, and he starts throwing hands. Giles gets tagged, throws back with bad intentions, and makes Bonfim reevaluate his current position. Bonfim backs off, measures his way back in and clips Giles with a left hand. Giles, perhaps from the strike or because he is off-balance, gathers himself and moves to the outside. Giles comes at him, and Bonfim grapples him, gets around to take his back, and lifts Giles off his feet and slams him down. Bonfim lands and considers a submission from on top, but he decides to maintain position while Giles is bucking. Giles manages to kick Bonfim off of him, and he leans forward while on his knees.
“Marretinha” welcomes this and licks his chops, as he snatches up and jumps guard with a guillotine choke. The submission is tight as a drum, and Giles sits up but is gurgling and the lights are flickering in his eyes. Giles surrenders, and he appears to go out right as Bonfim is releasing the grip due to Dean’s intervention.
Giles comes to, and Bonfim celebrates the victory that boosts him to 15-0 as a pro with 15 stoppages. Welterweight has one more threatening contender in the works, and Bonfim confidently claims in his post-fight interview that he will be the champion.

The Official Result
Gabriel Bonfim def. Trevin Giles R1 1:13 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

Angelo picks Gabriel Bonfim, believing he is the better fighter everywhere with more powerful striking and better grappling. He acknowledges Trevin Giles' incredible jab and athleticism as a concern, but thinks Bonfim's overall game will prevail. He considered putting Bonfim in a parlay but decided against it due to Giles' potential to sneak out a win.

"Gabriel's gonna be the pick I was hoping to put him in the safety parlay right right off the cat I'm like yeah this should happen this should happen."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

Big Brady picks Gabriel Bonfim to win by first-round submission. He praises Bonfim's opportunistic submission skills and finishing ability, noting 79% of wins by submission. He criticizes Trevin Giles' poor fight IQ and durability, expecting Bonfim to capitalize on a mistake early. He sees Bonfim as dangerous everywhere and predicts a quick finish.

first round submission
"I'm going to take Gabriel bonfim to win this fight I'll say he wins it by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

Cody picks Bonfim to win inside 1.5 rounds, betting the under at -125. He sees Bonfim as an opportunistic finisher with power, while Giles has low output and a suspect chin. He notes Giles' career-high significant strikes is only 71, and his cardio is poor, especially at altitude. He plans to fade Bonfim in the future but likes him here.

under 1.5 rounds -125
"I did put some money on the under one and a half at minus 125"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

James rates Bonfim highly, calling him an elite boxer with dangerous submissions. He expects Bonfim to finish Giles early, likely in round one or two. He notes that Bonfim was underrated earlier but the market has corrected, and he believes Bonfim can become a top-15 fighter.

under 1.5 rounds
"I think he's going to finish Trevin Jones I honestly do"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

Bonfim is the better striker and has a slick submission game. Giles has durability issues and Bonfim will put pressure on him with combinations. Bonfim is the future and will get another finish, probably in the second round. Giles's experience won't be enough.

"I think bomb female is the truth I think bomb theme is the future and I think he's worth the talk this weekend even against an experienced Skylake Giles look for giles's durability issues to Showcase themselves once again and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

Paul picks Bonfim despite the high price, citing Giles' low output and lack of power. He notes Bonfim is faster, sharper, and can take Giles down. He acknowledges Bonfim is hittable but believes Giles doesn't have the volume or power to capitalize. He expects Bonfim to finish or win a clear decision.

"I will take bomb theme but I'm I'm looking to fade this guy in the near future"
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Trevin Giles 0 55 of 108 50% 71 of 129 0 of 1 0% 0 2 4:14
Preston Parsons 0 42 of 95 44% 62 of 130 3 of 11 27% 3 1 5:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Trevin Giles 0 14 of 26 53% 17 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:26
Preston Parsons 0 14 of 28 50% 23 of 43 0 of 3 0% 2 0 1:52
2 Trevin Giles 0 18 of 40 45% 29 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:23
Preston Parsons 0 13 of 32 40% 18 of 40 1 of 5 20% 0 1 1:30
3 Trevin Giles 0 23 of 42 54% 25 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:25
Preston Parsons 0 15 of 35 42% 21 of 47 2 of 3 66% 1 0 1:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Trevin Giles 55 of 108 50% 51 of 102 4 of 6 0 of 0 34 of 83 7 of 9 14 of 16
Preston Parsons 42 of 95 44% 24 of 77 6 of 6 12 of 12 34 of 84 7 of 10 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Trevin Giles 14 of 26 53% 14 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 20 2 of 2 3 of 4
Preston Parsons 14 of 28 50% 9 of 23 2 of 2 3 of 3 10 of 23 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Trevin Giles 18 of 40 45% 15 of 36 3 of 4 0 of 0 12 of 31 1 of 3 5 of 6
Preston Parsons 13 of 32 40% 7 of 26 3 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 29 1 of 2 1 of 1
3 Trevin Giles 23 of 42 54% 22 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0 13 of 32 4 of 4 6 of 6
Preston Parsons 15 of 35 42% 8 of 28 1 of 1 6 of 6 13 of 32 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Angelo picks Parsons, noting his slick grappling and the fact that he showed he can go three rounds in his last fight. He thinks Giles is overrated due to the Roman Dolidze win, which he argues Dolidze actually won. He believes Parsons will get the wrestling going and win, possibly inside the distance. He has a half-unit moneyline bet on Parsons at -105.

Half-unit moneyline bet on Parsons at -105; also considering takedown prop bets
"Preston Parsons is gonna be my pick I think he's gonna get the wrestling going."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Big Brady picks Preston Parsons by submission in the second round. He questions Trevin Giles' fight IQ, durability, and volume, noting that Giles has been finished in all four losses. Brady believes Parsons' pressure and cardio will break Giles, and that Giles' weight cut to 170 will hurt his gas tank. He expects Parsons to mix takedowns, get on top, and secure a submission.

Parsons by submission in round 2
"I like Parsons to make this a war honestly... I think Parsons eventually gets on top gets into a dominant position and gets a submission winning the second or third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Cody picks Parsons, citing Giles' inconsistency, low output, and recent durability issues. He notes Parsons is younger, improving, and has solid wrestling. He worries about Texas judging but believes Parsons can edge out a decision or get a takedown. He calls it a 50/50 fight but leans Parsons.

Over 2.5 rounds (fight time over 10 minutes on PrizePicks)
"The pick I think would be Preston Parsons barring a bad judge's decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Connor initially hesitates but ultimately sides with Zane's pick of Preston Parsons. He acknowledges that Parsons will eat a lot of straight punches early and that Giles is fast and a good straight puncher, but he doesn't trust Giles's application of his tools or his defensive absence at welterweight. Connor notes that Giles looked okay against Louis Cosce but not great, and he believes Parsons's physical pressure will be enough to exploit Giles's weaknesses.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I guess I'll side with you. I'm not that, I'll side with you."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Jacob also picks Parsons, agreeing that Giles is a good boxer but does not use his jab enough and struggles with pressure. He thinks Parsons will get in Giles' face, disrupt his striking, and win inside the distance. He says he is 'pressing Parsons all the way'.

"I'm pressing Parsons all the way."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

The host likes Parsons' relentless grappling style and believes he can push a pace that Giles may not handle at welterweight. He notes Parsons showed good cardio in his last fight, and expects him to find a finish from top dominant position. He has questions about Giles' energy levels and weight cut.

"I'm gonna go Preston Parsons to win this fight with his Relentless grappling and I'm inevitably a finish from that top dominant position"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Trevin Giles

The Guru picks Giles, citing his experience and athleticism. He notes that Parsons hasn't fought since his debut and lacks a standout skill. He expects Giles to win by decision, using his physicality and technique.

"I'm going with Trevin Giles... I just think he's on average more athletic more dangerous and a bit better technically in most areas"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Zane picks Preston Parsons because he believes Trevin Giles's athletic advantages are less pronounced at welterweight and his defensive flaws are more exploitable. Giles backs up with his hands down and is prone to getting hurt, while Parsons is a pressuring bully who will walk through shots and wear Giles down. Zane notes that Giles has not knocked anyone out since 2017 and tends to gas when having success, making him vulnerable to Parsons's relentless pressure.

Odds: Giles opened at -110, currently -111; Parsons opened at -110, currently -111. Zane notes that Giles has not knocked anyone out since 2017 except Bevin Lewis.
"I'm still going to pick Parsons to win. Giles is just too hurtable."
WIN vs Louis Cosce
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Sep 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Trevin Giles 0 25 of 46 54% 45 of 66 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:09
Louis Cosce 0 10 of 38 26% 21 of 49 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Trevin Giles 0 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Louis Cosce 0 2 of 18 11% 2 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Trevin Giles 0 12 of 24 50% 18 of 30 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:00
Louis Cosce 0 7 of 17 41% 7 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Trevin Giles 0 0 of 1 0% 14 of 15 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:09
Louis Cosce 0 1 of 3 33% 12 of 14 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Trevin Giles 25 of 46 54% 10 of 29 2 of 4 13 of 13 25 of 45 0 of 1 0 of 0
Louis Cosce 10 of 38 26% 5 of 29 3 of 5 2 of 4 9 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Trevin Giles 13 of 21 61% 4 of 12 1 of 1 8 of 8 13 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Louis Cosce 2 of 18 11% 0 of 14 1 of 2 1 of 2 2 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Trevin Giles 12 of 24 50% 6 of 16 1 of 3 5 of 5 12 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Louis Cosce 7 of 17 41% 4 of 12 2 of 3 1 of 2 7 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Trevin Giles 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0
Louis Cosce 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Trevin Giles

Angelo picks Giles but hates the odds, calling them far too wide. He notes that Giles is athletic with a good jab and should be able to get the fight to the ground, where he has a wide advantage. However, he acknowledges that Cosce is the more powerful striker and could finish early. Angelo suggests an inside the distance/decision no action bet on Cosce at +170.

Suggests inside the distance/decision no action bet on Cosce at +170.
"trevin's gonna be the pick i hate these odds these are far far too wide"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Trevin Giles

Big Brady picks Trevin Giles to win by late first-round submission, but with hesitation. He acknowledges Giles has poor fight IQ and cardio, but notes that Giles has all the skills—powerful jab, good wrestling, BJJ black belt. Brady expects Louis Cosce to come out aggressively looking for a finish, as he has a 100% finish rate all in the first round. If Giles survives the initial onslaught (2.5-3 minutes), Brady believes Giles will take over and submit Cosce, who gassed in his last fight. Brady also mentions that Giles recently quit his police job to focus on fighting, which could be a positive sign.

late first round submission
"i'm going to say uh jevin giles buy sub i'll say late first round submission for trevin giles"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Louis Cosce

Cody thinks Cosce has a wrestling advantage and power, and that Giles has a questionable chin and low volume. He notes Cosce's two-year layoff could have helped him improve. He calls Cosce 'live' but admits it's a low-confidence pick.

"i think this koski's live is all i would say i'd say he's live the two years off would be good for him"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Trevin Giles

Daniel Levi leans Trevin Giles due to his experience and level of competition, but is not interested at the price. He notes Giles has been knocked out in two straight fights and questions his fight IQ, but thinks his jab and takedown mix should be enough to give Cosce a vet lesson. He sees Cosce as unproven with weak competition.

"I'll go trevon giles not interested at the price"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Louis Cosce

Jacob picks Cosce, believing he will get a first-round finish. He notes that Cosce is a dangerous striker with power and pressure, and that Giles can wilt when pressured. Jacob acknowledges Cosce's cardio issues but thinks he will finish early. He suggests live betting Giles if Cosce fades after the first round.

Suggests live betting Giles after first round if Cosce fades.
"i think i picked coast gay because i think he's able to get that first round finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 16, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Trevin Giles

Cosce is a first-round finisher with all his wins coming in round one, but he fades if the fight goes longer. Giles is vulnerable early but if he survives, he should take over with his jab and aggression. The fight likely ends inside the distance. I lean Giles surviving and finishing Cosce later, but Cosce by round one at +750 is a live sprinkle.

Fight doesn't go to decision at -190 to -215, Cosce by round 1 at +750 (sprinkle)
"I'm gonna lean Giles surviving that early Onslaught and finishing cozy later but uh cozy round one is absolutely live in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Louis Cosce

Paul picks Cosce but is not confident, calling it 'gross'. He notes Giles' poor takedown numbers and thinks Cosce could have a wrestling advantage. He says he'll blame Cody if it loses.

Trevin Giles under 1.5 takedowns
"i'll pick koski for the purposes of this show woof"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Trevin Giles

The MMA Guru picks Trevin Giles by 29-28 decision. He thinks Louis Cosce is athletic but lacks hype, and Giles is bigger with a reach advantage. He expects Giles to use his jab and wear down Cosce, surviving any early power shots. He notes Giles has good grappling and should win the later rounds, possibly losing the first round but coming back to win a decision.

"i'm actually gonna side with trevin giles being a little bit bigger a little bit stronger wearing down on louis koshko staying behind his jab with that reach advantage and eventually winning himself like a 29-28 decision"
LOSS vs Michael Morales
TKO (punches) R1 4:06 · UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · Jan 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Morales 1 26 of 42 61% 28 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:05
Trevin Giles 0 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 1 of 4 25% 1 0 1:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Morales 1 26 of 42 61% 28 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:05
Trevin Giles 0 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 1 of 4 25% 1 0 1:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Morales 26 of 42 61% 23 of 39 0 of 0 3 of 3 12 of 24 0 of 0 14 of 18
Trevin Giles 8 of 15 53% 3 of 10 1 of 1 4 of 4 8 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Morales 26 of 42 61% 23 of 39 0 of 0 3 of 3 12 of 24 0 of 0 14 of 18
Trevin Giles 8 of 15 53% 3 of 10 1 of 1 4 of 4 8 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Angelo picks Michael Morales, calling him a killer with national championships in wrestling and Muay Thai. He notes Morales' footwork and jab, and believes he is better everywhere except pace. He sees Trevin Giles as a good measuring stick but expects Morales to win.

"i think morales is going to win this fight i think he's better everywhere except the actual pace and my only concern is that trevin may just march forward stay in morales face which could give him a hard time …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Big Brady picks Michael Morales to win a close decision, citing his volume, reach advantage, and well-rounded game. He heavily criticizes Trevin Giles for poor fight IQ, cardio, and low volume, and notes Giles is cutting to 170 which is a concern. He acknowledges Giles has a grappling advantage but doesn't trust him to fight smart. He expects Morales to outpoint Giles in a close fight.

Morales by decision; mentions Giles cutting weight and poor fight IQ
"i'm gonna take michael morales to win a decision here but i think it's gonna be very very close"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Trevin Giles

Cody picks Trevin Giles as an underdog, citing Giles' experience against higher-level competition and his well-rounded skills. He notes that Giles has fought at 205 and 185, and moving to 170 may benefit him. Cody acknowledges Giles' cardio issues and past submissions, but believes his boxing and grappling are superior to Morales'. He sees this as a dog-or-pass situation.

"I would say this is a dog or pass situation... I'm going to go with the underdog Trevin Giles here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jan 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Daniel Levi picks Michael Morales but admits he is hesitant and will not bet the fight. He acknowledges the classic spot where an unproven prospect faces a grizzled vet at dog money, which often goes the vet's way. However, his gut tells him Morales is the more talented fighter and will get it done. Levi notes that Giles has a history of making mistakes and getting choked out, but also that Morales could suffer from debut nerves. He compares it to the Ignacio vs Makdessi fight where the better fighter didn't win.

No bet; straight pick only
"my gut was telling me morales is going to get this one done but my gout also told me that ignacio would beat macdessey"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Trevin Giles

The host is skeptical of Morales being a favorite given his unproven competition. He notes that Giles is a tested veteran with fast hands and good movement, and that Morales has not faced anyone like Giles. He thinks Giles can use his jab and movement to discourage Morales and win a decision. However, he admits he is not a big Giles fan and may not bet it, but his prediction is Giles by decision.

Giles by decision
"i'm actually leaning giles on the spot i'm not a big jobs guy myself so i don't think i'll actually be placing a bet on it but in terms of a prediction it's hard to pick against a guy that's …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Paul picks Michael Morales, noting his youth (22) and wrestling from the contender series. He acknowledges that Morales' striking is a work in progress but believes his ceiling is higher. Paul is not a fan of Trevin Giles, citing his underwhelming UFC run and cardio issues. However, he is not highly confident and suggests this fight could be passed.

"I'm going with the kid 22 years old... I've never been a Trevin Giles guy and I won't be today."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Michael Morales

The MMA Guru picks Michael Morales, praising his stand-up, grappling, and all-around skills. He notes Giles' recent KO loss and poor performance against James Krause on short notice. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision, with Morales schooling Giles on the feet for three rounds.

"i'm going to go with michael morales 3027 unanimous decision winning every single round on the feet"
KO (punches) R2 1:41 · UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Jul 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 10 of 32 31% 10 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Trevin Giles 1 25 of 48 52% 26 of 49 2 of 4 50% 0 1 1:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 6 of 20 30% 6 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Trevin Giles 0 14 of 29 48% 15 of 30 2 of 3 66% 0 1 1:31
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Trevin Giles 1 11 of 19 57% 11 of 19 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 10 of 32 31% 6 of 26 3 of 5 1 of 1 8 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
Trevin Giles 25 of 48 52% 7 of 23 7 of 10 11 of 15 22 of 43 0 of 0 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 6 of 20 30% 4 of 16 1 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
Trevin Giles 14 of 29 48% 2 of 12 4 of 5 8 of 12 14 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Dricus du Plessis 4 of 12 33% 2 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Trevin Giles 11 of 19 57% 5 of 11 3 of 5 3 of 3 8 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo picks du Plessis, citing his striking advantage and movement to avoid takedowns. He thinks du Plessis will piece up Giles on the feet and potentially get a late stoppage. He notes Giles is a grappler but du Plessis can avoid being pressed against the cage.

"i really like um driskus in this fight he's definitely my pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Trevin Giles

Big Brady picks Trevin Giles to win by second-round knockout. He thinks Giles is the better fighter everywhere, with better striking and grappling. He notes Giles' power and finishing ability (79% finish rate). However, he has concerns about Giles' fight IQ, cardio, and output. He acknowledges du Plessis is dangerous with fight-changing power, but believes Giles can keep distance and land. He mentions Giles' losses are both third-round submissions, so he expects an early finish.

second round knockout
"i'm gonna take giles to win i'm gonna say giles wins by i'm gonna say second round knockout there"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Cody leans toward du Plessis. He notes du Plessis' power and submission game, and Giles' history of being submitted by guillotine. He thinks du Plessis can finish inside the distance. He calls it a dog or pass.

under 2.5 rounds
"i'll pick the deplesis for this but i got nothing on it yet"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Trevin Giles

Daniel Levi leans toward Trevin Giles. He notes Giles' UFC experience, speed, and lightning-fast jab, and believes Giles will win the minutes. However, he warns that Giles can make mental mistakes and get caught, while du Plessis is extremely durable and has opportunistic finishing ability with submissions and knockout power. He sees value on both sides but slightly favors Giles.

"i'ma go with giles though"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Trevin Giles

Jacob picks Giles, noting his intelligence and ability to win close rounds. He references Giles' previous lock of the week win over Roman Rodriguez. He thinks Giles can find a way to win, possibly by stealing rounds late. He almost made Giles his lock of the week again.

"i like trevin giles in his fight not lock of the week but he is a former winner"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Trevin Giles

I lean towards Giles by decision. He has a speed and jab advantage, and I expect him to out-strike du Plessis on the feet. Du Plessis is too patient and gives up his back foot. Giles' cardio is a concern, but I think he can win rounds with his striking. I don't have high confidence, but I like Giles to get it done via decision.

"i do actually end up leaning on the trevin java side of things... i do like jobs to get it done and done via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Paul leans toward du Plessis. He notes du Plessis' leg kicks and submission threat, and Giles' cardio issues. He thinks du Plessis can win by finish. He calls it a volatile fight.

"the official pick will be drake's two places"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2021 (fight day)
Dricus du Plessis

The Guru predicts du Plessis will win by third-round guillotine choke. He expects du Plessis to chew up Giles' lead leg with kicks in the first round, while Giles is boxing-heavy. Giles will have a better second round, but du Plessis will continue chopping the leg. In the third round, Giles' leg will be damaged, and du Plessis will land good shots. Giles will panic and shoot a takedown, putting his neck in a guillotine, which du Plessis will capitalize on. The Guru notes Giles has been choked out twice before when panicking.

du Plessis wins by submission (guillotine) in round 3
"dracus de plessis has some nasty leg kicks ... giles is going to shoot a panic take down ... and get guillotined by drinkers to plexus in the third round"
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo picks du Plessis, citing his striking advantage and movement to avoid takedowns. He thinks du Plessis will piece up Giles on the feet and potentially get a late stoppage. He notes Giles is a grappler but du Plessis can avoid being pressed against the cage.

"i really like um driskus in this fight he's definitely my pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Trevin Giles

Big Brady picks Trevin Giles to win by second-round knockout. He thinks Giles is the better fighter everywhere, with better striking and grappling. He notes Giles' power and finishing ability (79% finish rate). However, he has concerns about Giles' fight IQ, cardio, and output. He acknowledges du Plessis is dangerous with fight-changing power, but believes Giles can keep distance and land. He mentions Giles' losses are both third-round submissions, so he expects an early finish.

second round knockout
"i'm gonna take giles to win i'm gonna say giles wins by i'm gonna say second round knockout there"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Cody leans toward du Plessis. He notes du Plessis' power and submission game, and Giles' history of being submitted by guillotine. He thinks du Plessis can finish inside the distance. He calls it a dog or pass.

under 2.5 rounds
"i'll pick the deplesis for this but i got nothing on it yet"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Trevin Giles

Daniel Levi leans toward Trevin Giles. He notes Giles' UFC experience, speed, and lightning-fast jab, and believes Giles will win the minutes. However, he warns that Giles can make mental mistakes and get caught, while du Plessis is extremely durable and has opportunistic finishing ability with submissions and knockout power. He sees value on both sides but slightly favors Giles.

"i'ma go with giles though"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Trevin Giles

Jacob picks Giles, noting his intelligence and ability to win close rounds. He references Giles' previous lock of the week win over Roman Rodriguez. He thinks Giles can find a way to win, possibly by stealing rounds late. He almost made Giles his lock of the week again.

"i like trevin giles in his fight not lock of the week but he is a former winner"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Trevin Giles

I lean towards Giles by decision. He has a speed and jab advantage, and I expect him to out-strike du Plessis on the feet. Du Plessis is too patient and gives up his back foot. Giles' cardio is a concern, but I think he can win rounds with his striking. I don't have high confidence, but I like Giles to get it done via decision.

"i do actually end up leaning on the trevin java side of things... i do like jobs to get it done and done via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Paul leans toward du Plessis. He notes du Plessis' leg kicks and submission threat, and Giles' cardio issues. He thinks du Plessis can win by finish. He calls it a volatile fight.

"the official pick will be drake's two places"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2021 (fight day)
Dricus du Plessis

The Guru predicts du Plessis will win by third-round guillotine choke. He expects du Plessis to chew up Giles' lead leg with kicks in the first round, while Giles is boxing-heavy. Giles will have a better second round, but du Plessis will continue chopping the leg. In the third round, Giles' leg will be damaged, and du Plessis will land good shots. Giles will panic and shoot a takedown, putting his neck in a guillotine, which du Plessis will capitalize on. The Guru notes Giles has been choked out twice before when panicking.

du Plessis wins by submission (guillotine) in round 3
"dracus de plessis has some nasty leg kicks ... giles is going to shoot a panic take down ... and get guillotined by drinkers to plexus in the third round"