vs
-175 +180
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Jul 10, 2021 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 Next Fight
Age 32
Height 6' 1"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 36
Height 6' 0"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Michel Pereira
4.46 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
4.4 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
1.21 TD Avg
56.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Niko Price
5.11 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
5.57 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
1.06 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Michel Pereira
Moneyline
BetWay -175
KO/TKO
BetMGM +260
Submission
BetWay +650
Decision
BetRivers +275
Niko Price
Moneyline
FanDuel +180
KO/TKO
BetMGM +280
Submission
BetMGM +1450
Decision
BetRivers +450
Michel Pereira - Fight History
WIN vs Zachary Reese
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Feb 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zachary Reese 0 74 of 148 50% 81 of 160 1 of 3 33% 1 0 0:47
Michel Pereira 0 63 of 132 47% 70 of 139 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zachary Reese 0 23 of 51 45% 26 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michel Pereira 0 18 of 40 45% 25 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:42
2 Zachary Reese 0 24 of 44 54% 28 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:44
Michel Pereira 0 22 of 42 52% 22 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
3 Zachary Reese 0 27 of 53 50% 27 of 55 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:03
Michel Pereira 0 23 of 50 46% 23 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zachary Reese 74 of 148 50% 24 of 90 30 of 38 20 of 20 72 of 142 2 of 6 0 of 0
Michel Pereira 63 of 132 47% 29 of 75 31 of 53 3 of 4 53 of 119 9 of 11 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zachary Reese 23 of 51 45% 4 of 29 8 of 11 11 of 11 23 of 50 0 of 1 0 of 0
Michel Pereira 18 of 40 45% 8 of 21 10 of 19 0 of 0 15 of 35 2 of 4 1 of 1
2 Zachary Reese 24 of 44 54% 9 of 25 11 of 15 4 of 4 23 of 41 1 of 3 0 of 0
Michel Pereira 22 of 42 52% 12 of 25 9 of 16 1 of 1 16 of 35 6 of 6 0 of 1
3 Zachary Reese 27 of 53 50% 11 of 36 11 of 12 5 of 5 26 of 51 1 of 2 0 of 0
Michel Pereira 23 of 50 46% 9 of 29 12 of 18 2 of 3 22 of 49 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michel Pereira vs. Zachary Reese

Round 1
Herb Dean is the referee. Pereira lands a hard body kick to begin the main card. Pereira counters a kick with a glancing overhand, but Reese seems to be OK. Pereira jabs the body. Pereira counters another kick with a right hand and Reese goes down. Pereira welcomes Reese back to his feet. Reese lands a body kick. Pereira with a front kick down the middle. Pereira jabs the body. Reese moves in and lands a knee to the body. Reese attempts an inside leg kick, but Herb Dean calls time because it apparently landed low. The crowd isn’t buying it but Pereira takes about a minute. Pereira tries for that same overhand counter following a Reese kick but it’s not as successful as it was earlier. Reese moves in and lands a combination to the body. Reese kicks the body, and Pereira grimaces, as it landed below the belt again. A replay review determines that it was indeed a foul, despite the protests of the fans. Reese lands a kick and they engage in the clinch, with both men swinging wildly during a brief exchange. An errant spinning attack by Reese results in a takedown for Pereira. Reese stands, but Pereira grabs the neck and lands a couple knees on the break. Pereira stabs the body with a front kick. Reese leaps in wildly, but Pereira can’t capitalize. Reese makes his foe stumble with a low kick before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pereira

Round 2
Reese targets the body with kicks. They clinch, and Pereira lands a pair of hard knees to the gut. They clinch and Pereira lands another knee before pushing Reese to the wire. They separate in short order. Pereira lands a right followed by a knee. Reese had his fingers extended during an exchange, and he poked Pereira in the eye. This results in the third timeout of the fight due to a foul by Reese. No point is taken and the action resumes. Reese quickly lands a takedown in the center of the cage. Reese peppers the Brazilian with left hands from half guard. Reese maintains a body lock as Pereira stands. Reese is busted open. Reese lands a body kick. A counter left freezes Pereira where he stands. Pereira throws a right to the body. Reese moves in and Pereira land a leaping knee. They crash forward, with both men landing in an exchange. Reese is holding his hands low as he lands a right. Pereira jabs the body while avoiding a high kick. Another body kick for Reese. Reese lands a two-punch combination. Reese throws a front kick to the body and Pereira urges him on. Reese just misses with a flying knee. Pereira responds with a rolling somersault kick at the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Reese
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Reese
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Reese

Round 3
Reese opens with a body kick. Pereira throws a push kick to the body. Reese lands a leg kick and is warned to keep his hands closed. Reese attacks the body with another kick. They collide in the clinch and separate. Reese closes distance and lands a knee. Pereira connects with a straight right. A lead leg head kick lands for Reese, as these two keep trading one-off attacks. Reese with a two-punch solid combination. Pereira sticks a jab. Reese kicks the body. Pereira lands a counter right. Reese lands a right uppercut to the body followed by a left hand over the top. Pereira closes the distance and Reese nearly had a choke locked. Periera was a ble to scramble up. That sets the stage for another exchange. Both men land heavy shots initially, but they’re mostly swinging and missing in the waning seconds, save for a Pereira knee down the middle.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Reese (29-28 Reese)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Reese (29-28 Reese)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Reese (29-28 Reese)

The Official Result
Michel Pereira def. Zachary Reese via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Angelo picks Michel Pereira despite recent poor form, citing his superior athleticism, speed, wrestling, and training partners. He acknowledges Pereira's mental state is a question mark after a public divorce, but believes the version from 2024 would dominate. He goes with his brain over his gut.

"Michel Pereira is the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 8, 2026 (13 days before fight)
Zachary Reese

Big Brady picks Zachary Reese to defeat Michel Pereira, but with clear disgust and hesitation. He believes Pereira is washed, citing his terrible performances against Abus Magomedov and a 40-second knockout loss to Kyle Daukaus. He calls the fight 'disgusting' and hopes it gets canceled. He notes Reese is the underdog but feels he has more faith in Reese at this point. He predicts a first-round knockout, reasoning that if Daukaus could KO Pereira, Reese can too.

Zachary Reese by first-round knockout
"Give me Zac Reese here. You know, it's dirty. It's greasy. ... I'll take Zac Reese to knock out Michel Pereira in the first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Cody thinks Pereira's desperation and flashy style will lead to an early finish. He notes Reese's durability issues and poor cardio. He expects Pereira to win by KO or submission in the first round.

Pereira round one +316
"Pereira is the pick for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Connor picks Pereira despite acknowledging he looks shot. He notes that Pereira has better technique and experience, and that Reese has never beaten a good fighter. He points out that Pereira's creativity and speed could still be enough against a limited opponent like Reese, but admits it's a terrible fight and Pereira could lose if he's truly broken.

Reese opened +130, now +130; Pereira opened -150, now -150
"I'm gonna pick perrera. I can't. But that's what this fight is. Just terrible."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

The host heavily leans towards Pereira, citing his superior striking, cardio, and ground game compared to Reese. However, he cannot bet Pereira at -155 because of the red flag from Pereira's passive performance against Abus Magomedov, which may indicate decline. He notes that if Pereira shows up and fights to his potential, he wins easily, but the inconsistency makes him unbettable.

Pereira's inconsistency; potential decline after Abus Magomedov fight
"I heavily lean towards Pereira. He's a very tempting bat. I wouldn't touch Reese here because in my opinion there's no advantage that he has over Pereira."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

James picks Michel Pereira to win by first-round finish, but with hesitation due to Pereira's recent poor performances and questionable chin. He notes that Pereira has far better tools and competition wins, but if he doesn't get an early finish, Reese could take over. James prefers the under 1.5 rounds as a betting angle.

under 1.5 rounds
"I'm going to predict Michelle Pereira to win this fight in round one, but it's a very volatile fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Pereira is on a three-fight losing streak but has faced tough competition and should be motivated to save his roster spot. He is the better fighter on paper with more experience. Reese is dangerous but has durability questions. If Pereira comes back at 80% of his former self, he should find a finish. The under 1.5 rounds is also a good play as both are finishers.

under 1.5 rounds at plus money
"So, I'm going to go Pereira. I'm going to go Pereira by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Paul agrees, citing Pereira's ability to finish fights early and Reese's tendency to get knocked out. He thinks Pereira's wrestling is underrated and that he can win on the ground if needed. He expects a first-round finish.

Pereira inside distance +120
"I want the more dangerous guy. I want the guy that's more able to capitalize."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Michel Pereira, trusting his ability despite a recent loss to Hernandez. He notes Pereira's cardio issues but thinks he can find Reese's chin. He is unsure due to Pereira's inconsistency but believes Reese's fundamental ability is lacking.

TKO
"I'm going to go with Michael Pahea getting this one done by TKO over Zachary Reese."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Zachary Reese

Zane picks Reese as a counter to Connor, arguing that Pereira's confidence is shattered after the Hernandez loss and he has looked terrible in his last two fights. He notes that Reese is dangerous early and that Pereira's recent performances suggest he no longer knows how to fight. He admits it's a terrible fight and that Reese could easily lose, but he's willing to take the chance.

"Ah, fuck it. I'll take zach reese. Yeah might as well. Terrible fight."
LOSS vs Kyle Daukaus
KO R1 0:43 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Aug 23, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kyle Daukaus 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michel Pereira 1 5 of 8 62% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kyle Daukaus 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michel Pereira 1 5 of 8 62% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kyle Daukaus 2 of 4 50% 0 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michel Pereira 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kyle Daukaus 2 of 4 50% 0 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michel Pereira 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michel Pereira vs. Kyle Daukaus

Round 1
The younger Daukaus brother returns to the UFC after a mixed first run in the Octagon followed a second middleweight title win in
Cage Fury Fighting Championships
after his release. Tasked with getting Daukaus’ second stint off to a bad start will be noted Brazilian madman Pereira. The referee on duty is Marc Goddard. Daukaus is southpaw, Pereira orthodox. Daukaus stalks forward and Pereira gives ground. Pereira nails Daukaus with a huge body kick, but he wears it well.
Seconds later, Daukaus clips the onrushing “Demolidor” with a short right hook to the jaw that drops him to his butt. Pereira tries to rally, but Daukaus pounces with a couple of glancing fists, then three jackhammer elbows that spur Goddard into action for the save.
Sensational knockout and a triumphant return for “The D’Arce Knight,” and for those keeping track at home, that makes two sub-minute finishes in the first four fights at UFC Shanghai. Yes, please.

The Official Result
Kyle Daukaus def. Michel Pereira R1 0:43 via KO (Punches and Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Angelo is very confident in Michel Pereira, calling him an absolute beast with insane athleticism, real power, and solid wrestling and BJJ. He notes that Pereira is a better hammer than nail and that his recent loss was uncharacteristic, partly due to personal life issues. He dismisses Kyle Daukaus as not good at the UFC level despite regional wins, and expects Pereira to beat the brakes off him. He even says if Pereira doesn't win, cut them both.

"I think Michelle Pa comes in here, beats the absolute breaks off of Kyle Dawkins, and gets back on track."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Big Brady picks Michel Pereira to win by first-round knockout, despite Pereira's recent poor performance against Abus Magomedov. He believes the matchup is favorable for Pereira because Daukaus is hittable and fragile, and Pereira has the striking advantage. He notes that Daukaus will struggle to take Pereira down and that Pereira should finish early with a body shot or flying knee.

Pereira by first round knockout
"Give me Michelle Pereira. I'll take him to win by first round knockout. Hopefully he doesn't bet against himself again."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Michel Pereira

Connor also picks Pereira, but with reservations. He notes that Pereira has looked terrible recently and that Daukaus could win by making the fight ugly and clinging to clinches. However, he believes Pereira's athleticism and ability to land elbows in the clinch should carry him. He also points out that Daukaus is not a strong wrestler and tends to gas.

"I'm picking Pareda too, but I just want to be clear that yeah, it has been looking terrible."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

The host acknowledges it's tough to trust Pereira after his last gunshy performance, but thinks he has a good opponent here to show off his power. He notes that Daukaus has crumbled under power before and expects Pereira to find a knockout.

win by KO/TKO
"I think he has a good enough partner here that he can show off his power once again. And we've seen Dawkins crumble under plenty of power before and Pereira can provide that and I think we'll see Pereira find …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Michel Pereira

The MMA Guru picks Michel Pereira to win, expecting an easy first-round finish. He believes Pereira is on another level compared to Kyle Daukaus, who is decent but lacks standout ability in any area. He notes that Pereira is much better at striking and moves well, which should carry him past Daukaus. However, he acknowledges that if the fight goes later, Daukaus could find success in the clinch.

first round finish
"This should be a pretty easy first round finish for Muel Preer. I think he's on another level to Kyle Dorcas."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Michel Pereira

Zane picks Michel Pereira, noting that Pereira can 'cheat his way to victory by being an athlete.' He acknowledges that Pereira has looked shot recently and that Daukaus could make it ugly with clinch work, but believes Pereira's athleticism and striking should be enough to win. He also notes that Daukaus is not a good wrestler and tends to self-destruct.

"I think I'm going to pick Michelle Pareda too, because he can just cheat his way to victory by being an athlete."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Apr 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michel Pereira 0 73 of 168 43% 74 of 169 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 78 of 134 58% 83 of 140 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michel Pereira 0 7 of 20 35% 7 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 18 of 31 58% 23 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:52
2 Michel Pereira 0 25 of 58 43% 26 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 24 of 46 52% 24 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
3 Michel Pereira 0 41 of 90 45% 41 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 36 of 57 63% 36 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michel Pereira 73 of 168 43% 27 of 90 27 of 50 19 of 28 72 of 166 1 of 2 0 of 0
Abusupiyan Magomedov 78 of 134 58% 53 of 99 19 of 29 6 of 6 72 of 128 3 of 3 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michel Pereira 7 of 20 35% 0 of 4 4 of 9 3 of 7 7 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Abusupiyan Magomedov 18 of 31 58% 10 of 23 5 of 5 3 of 3 13 of 26 2 of 2 3 of 3
2 Michel Pereira 25 of 58 43% 7 of 28 8 of 17 10 of 13 25 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Abusupiyan Magomedov 24 of 46 52% 14 of 30 8 of 14 2 of 2 24 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Michel Pereira 41 of 90 45% 20 of 58 15 of 24 6 of 8 40 of 88 1 of 2 0 of 0
Abusupiyan Magomedov 36 of 57 63% 29 of 46 6 of 10 1 of 1 35 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Abusupiyan Magomedov vs. Michel Pereira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pereira (-155), Magomedov (+130)

Round 1
This next middleweight affair could shape up to be a wild one before the dust settles. While he has scaled back on some of the antics that cost him wins in the past, Pereira (31-12, 2 NC; 9-3 UFC) is still unafraid to hit a back flip mid-fight even if landing on opponent with stomping feet is illegal. Who needs rules in a sport like this. Russian-born German knockout artist Magomedov (27-6-1, 3-2 UFC) is the much more composed of the two, but is no less dangerous. Referee Nick Berens will need to be on high alert until the conclusion of the bout, one that kicks off with a glove touch. Magomedov stabs out with a long kick to start things off, and Berens warns both fighters for outstretched fingers…and they don’t listen. Magomedov pitches out a front kick that goes wide, and Pereira swipes at his foe’s midsection only to be out of range. Pereira does get in with a left hand, and he is out of range before a counter finds him. Pereira jabs the body with a kick and has his guard raised to block an overhand right, and Magomedov puts on heavy pressure while leading with his front kick. Magomedov kicks the side with the same foot, and he lunges in behind two right hands that brush the Brazilian’s beard. Magomedov nails Pereira with a left hand, who stumbles and needs a second to gather his thoughts. Magomedov is not giving him that second, instead blasting “Demolidor” with a head kick. Pereira takes it somehow and rebounds to jab the body, but his legs might not be fully beneath him yet. Pereira gets backed to the fence, and he ducks an overhand right but falls to his back when Magomedov easily takes him down. Magomedov unloads with left hands and an elbow, and Pereira explodes to his feet. Magomedov hangs on from behind like an angry seatbelt, smacking Pereira upside the head until he climbs on the back and wraps his hooks around the waist. Magomedov releases the grip when he cannot locate the body triangle, and Pereira recognizes this is his moment to move and he moves with a spinning back elbow. Magomedov ignores it and loads up with two overhand rights, unconcerned about anything aimed his direction. Pereira stays on his bike, avoiding exchanges when he can while not committing to much on his own side. He gets off one front kick, and Magomedov strikes back with a right hand and a head kick to end the tepid round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov

Round 2
The middleweights bump fists to get going again, and Pereira does land first this time in the form of a low kick. He gets right back on his bike, entirely uncharacteristic for him as he typically presents far more aggressively. Pereira pulls back when thinking about throwing punches, and he is stuck in first gear while Magomedov can do anything. Magomedov jabs the body with his foot—it is not that Magomedov is putting a beating on Pereira, but he is nullifying the Brazilian to a surprising degree. Magomedov eats a knee coming in when shooting for a takedown, and Pereira tosses him aside and strikes with a single front kick. Magomedov gets back to chasing Pereira around, wrapping a right hand around the guard and ignoring a jab to the body coming his way. Pereira’s two punches land harmlessly on the chin, and he barely manages to avoid a booming uppercut and ties Magomedov up in a clinch. When Magomedov is going to use it against him, Pereira releases his grip and backs away. Pereira uses alternating front kicks to stay away, mixing in a few jabs. The crowd is not overly amused by the lack of engagement from the two, with Magomedov winning but not blowing him out of the water. The pace is slow and non-threatening, with Pereira fighting like someone afraid to run out of gas. Unfortunately for him, fighting while backing away is tiring as well. Pereira jabs a few times, and when he gets pushed back with a front kick, he meets Magomedov with the same strike. Pereira sticks out punches, and his front kick lands on the body. Even with volume now on his side, power is minimal and the lack of effective offense disappoints those in attendance and watching live. The less-than-stellar round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov

Round 3
The two men hug to start the last round, and the crowd showers them in boos. They answer the call with a simultaneous punch, and Magomedov recovers first and goes to the head and body with a few more punches. Pereira picks things up a little, swinging harder and actually putting some mustard in his fists. Pereira rips a left to the body, and Magomedov kicks his front leg in response. Pereira goes to the body again, and the long jab from Magomedov connects cleanly. Pereira tosses out a high kick that lightly bumps into the shoulder, and his left hooks are out of range. The fans, so frustrated with the match thus far, start taking out their phones and light up their screens while waving them around. Little changes inside the Octagon when they do this, other than a hard right hand and a knee to the body from Pereira. Magomedov drops down for a level change, and Pereira times a knee on the chin that is questionably legal as to whether a knee was down. It is ultimately immaterial, and the chanting made famous from Atlanta Braves fans and coopted by the Kansas City Chiefs faithful serenades everyone listening. Magomedov is irritated by the body work that Pereira has done this round, and he wings a pair of right hands that shake Pereira up. Pereira takes time to recover, and Magomedov allows him to do this as he appears to not have enough in the tank to do more. When Pereira jams a knee to his midsection, Magomedov suddenly looks totally out of steam. Magomedov’s kicks and punches are labored, with Pereira’s much heavier. Magomedov shoots from afar for a takedown with a minute to go, and Pereira pulls him back to his feet so he can score a knee. The Russian nails Pereira with a left hook, and Pereira wobbles but does not go down. Magomedov smacks Pereira upside the head with clean left hands, and Pereira is knocked around but throws back. With seconds to go, Pereira ramps things up, but it is far too late for anything to come from it. The huge bummer of a 15-minute slog is now in the books, and it is time to move on to the next fight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov (30-27 Magomedov)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov (30-27 Magomedov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov (30-27 Magomedov)

The Official Result
Abusupiyan Magomedov def. Michel Pereira via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Angelo picks Michel Pereira, believing his athleticism and power will overwhelm Abusupiyan Magomedov. He notes that Abus is hittable and Pereira hits hard, and that Pereira should replicate Bruno Ferreira's success but without letting up. He is more confident now than in his initial breakdown, though he cautions about Pereira's cardio.

Odds tightening; may hold off if it goes to even money
"Michelle should beat the [__] out of this guy."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Big Brady picks Michel Pereira, dismissing his loss to Anthony Hernandez as irrelevant since Hernandez would do the same to Magomedov. He criticizes Magomedov's poor cardio and durability, noting he slows down after the first round. He expects Pereira to win by knockout, possibly in the second round.

second round knockout
"Give me Michelle Pereira to get back on track. I'll take Pereira to win this fight. I'll say he wins it by knockout. I'll say second round knockout for Michelle Pereira."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Connor picks Pereira because he is a much more evolved and athletic fighter compared to Magomedov, who has a limited game based on a one-two and top control. Pereira has shown growth and patience, and his speed and power will be too much for Magomedov's robotic striking. Connor notes that Magomedov's wins have aged poorly and he has been exposed by any decent fighter.

"Michelle Padera is an actually very good fighter who has learned a lot and evolved a lot over time, an incredible athlete."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Michel Pereira

The host likes Pereira's explosivity, athleticism, and power to shut down Magomedov's grappling, and expects Pereira to force a break and get a second or third round TKO.

TKO in round 2 or 3
"I think his explosivity, athleticism, and power will shut down the grappling game of Momedov... I think Pereira will force him to break eventually getting that second or third round TKO."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov as an underdog. He criticizes Pereira's cardio and lack of MMA training, saying he gasses if he doesn't finish early. He notes Magomedov's improvements in grappling and cardio, and his reach advantage. He expects Magomedov to weather Pereira's early storm and win a decision, possibly chopping up Pereira's leg.

"I'm going with Abbas Magamemedov as an underdog. I think Abbas Magdov got a ton of [__] for not looking good against Strickland and also gassing out in that fight. But since then he has shown improvements."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Zane picks Pereira, emphasizing that Magomedov's game is one-dimensional and relies on size and pressure. Once a fighter is good enough to test him, Magomedov falls apart. Pereira has the speed and skill to counter Magomedov's takedowns and striking. Zane also notes that Magomedov's losses have aged well but his wins have not, and he is essentially a 'quadruple A' fighter.

"I trust put it at this point to come out the other side of a rough start or whatever, and there's not that much depth to Maga Madoff's game at all."
TKO (elbows) R5 2:22 · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Oct 19, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Hernandez 0 152 of 212 71% 219 of 293 10 of 29 34% 0 0 15:42
Michel Pereira 0 24 of 53 45% 29 of 62 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Hernandez 0 27 of 52 51% 30 of 55 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:25
Michel Pereira 0 15 of 34 44% 17 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
2 Anthony Hernandez 0 30 of 47 63% 47 of 68 2 of 6 33% 0 0 3:18
Michel Pereira 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:35
3 Anthony Hernandez 0 44 of 55 80% 64 of 77 2 of 6 33% 0 0 4:17
Michel Pereira 0 3 of 8 37% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Anthony Hernandez 0 29 of 35 82% 48 of 62 3 of 6 50% 0 0 4:35
Michel Pereira 0 3 of 3 100% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
5 Anthony Hernandez 0 22 of 23 95% 30 of 31 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:07
Michel Pereira 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Hernandez 152 of 212 71% 125 of 182 22 of 24 5 of 6 43 of 81 12 of 14 97 of 117
Michel Pereira 24 of 53 45% 8 of 27 16 of 26 0 of 0 20 of 45 4 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Hernandez 27 of 52 51% 20 of 42 5 of 7 2 of 3 17 of 40 4 of 5 6 of 7
Michel Pereira 15 of 34 44% 7 of 19 8 of 15 0 of 0 12 of 28 3 of 6 0 of 0
2 Anthony Hernandez 30 of 47 63% 25 of 42 4 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 15 0 of 1 21 of 31
Michel Pereira 2 of 7 28% 0 of 4 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Anthony Hernandez 44 of 55 80% 31 of 42 11 of 11 2 of 2 8 of 15 4 of 4 32 of 36
Michel Pereira 3 of 8 37% 1 of 4 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 0
4 Anthony Hernandez 29 of 35 82% 28 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 6 3 of 3 21 of 26
Michel Pereira 3 of 3 100% 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Anthony Hernandez 22 of 23 95% 21 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 5 1 of 1 17 of 17
Michel Pereira 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Anthony Hernandez vs. Michel Pereira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-135), Pereira (+114)

Round 1
Much like last week, the UFC put on an event with an alright lineup on paper and what looks like an absolute thriller in the main attraction. At UFC Fight Night 244, Brandon Royval and Tatsuro Taira threw down in a “Fight of the Year” candidate, and the promotion is trotting out another matchup that could deliver bonkers action before it is said and done. Streaking middleweights go at it for five rounds to push to the next echelon of the weight class, and oddsmakers do not expect this one will go the distance. Winner of five straight with four stoppages, Hernandez (12-2, 1 NC; 6-2 UFC) keeps passing tests with flying colors, while high-flying Brazilian Pereira (31-11, 2 NC; 9-2 UFC) is a buzzsaw destroying anyone he meets at the new weight class. Referee Herb Dean draws the charge for the main attraction, and he brings the two together to touch gloves and seal the cage. It’s on with the show. Hernandez advances but is quickly met by a swarming Pereira, who swats at him with two jabs and a left hand. Hernandez slips out of the way, and when walking forward again, he is stabbed in the body with a powerful front kick that appears to hurt him. Pereira marches forward to continue working the body, and Hernandez grimaces and leans against the cage. Pereira tries to finish the job with a torrid salvo of strikes, and Hernandez toughs it out, bounces off the cage and wings a right hand to keep his man honest. Pereira backs off, kicks him in the ribs, and retreats. Hernandez marches the Brazilian down, slugging him to set up a takedown attempt. Hernandez reaches his foe with a right hand, and one of pieces of ear tape falls off. Hernandez spins with a wheel kick that glances off the guard, and his pressure makes Pereira retreat. Pereira gets pushed against the wall, turns about and comes out swinging. Hernandez has a spinning back kick land flush in close range, and he punches his way into a single-leg entry. Hernandez falls to his back as he tries to complete the takedown, and he stands back up before Pereira can make him pay for the attempt. Pereira checks a kick and digs a left to the liver, and he defends a shot with an effective sprawl and avoids a looping right. Pereira sets up a Thai clinch to knee his man repeatedly, and Hernandez punches his way out of it and backs Pereira up once more. Hernandez leans on Pereira against the fencing, and he surprises “Demolidor” with a spinning back elbow. Hernandez uses the close range to rip Pereira off his feet with a body lock and a trip, landing on top in a modified half guard. Hernandez sits and stands to land a bit of ground-and-pound, with the horn breaking them up.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 2
A fist bump leads to Hernandez jabbing and shooting in on the hips for a takedown. Pereira defends against it to break out of the attempt, and he pushes off and grazes Pereira’s eye with a swipe of his finger. Dean sternly warns Hernandez for the foul, and Pereira takes 30 seconds before he is ready to return. Hernandez reintroduces himself with a spinning back kick to the leg, and he punches high to shoot in low. Pereira sprawls successfully, getting pushed to the wall and turning his man about to escape. Pereira prepares for the takedown that will inevitably come by snatching hold of a guillotine choke as Hernandez shoots. Pereira uses the submission to briefly assume mount, and Hernandez worms his way out to claim top position. Hernandez opens up with ground-and-pound, smacking Pereira with his free left hand. “Fluffy” shuts down Pereira’s bucks and movements to get out, and he takes advantage of a moment to take Pereira’s back and set up an arm-triangle choke. The Brazilian wildly turns through the submission and fights back to his feet. Hernandez chases after him, grabbing hold of Pereira with a double and dumping him to the mat. Hernandez controls Pereira, imposing his weight on him while Pereira stands. When Pereira does get back up, Hernandez puts a hole on his morale by hitting a double. Pereira defends from a submission, sitting up to absorb punches, and Hernandez tries another guillotine. Pereira protects his neck once more, and Hernandez stands up and knees him in the chest. Hernandez follows a rolling, grounded Pereira with big right hands, and he opens up with elbows. The horn sounds while Hernandez is laying into him, and he helps Pereira up to his feet.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 3
There is a touch of gloves to get going, with Pereira on full defense mode thanks to his corner telling him to take the round off to recover. Hernandez leads off with a takedown shot, and he drags Pereira down from his side. The Brazilian bursts back to his feet, and Hernandez clips him with short but effective punches until Pereira circles away. Hernandez shoots and is stuffed, leading to Hernandez going deep on the hips with a double. When that fails, he pursues a body lock, and Pereira pushes him away and wants to set up a Thai clinch to knee Hernandez in the face. Hernandez uses that clinch to jam Pereira up instead, and he hits a double and climbs into half guard. Pereira is quick to turn to his side in an effort to escape, but Hernandez easily thwarts that and pounds on the Brazilian. Hernandez grinds with elbows, and he steps over to the side and right into mount. Pereira times the push off the hips to stop Hernandez from getting dominant position for long, so Hernandez drops down a hearty elbow on his jaw. Hernandez attacks an arm-triangle choke, and he allows Pereira to turn to his side so he can further lock it down. Pereira grits out the choke and is punched in the back of the head, and Hernandez adjusts his trajectory while Pereira returns to a knee. Hernandez elbows his man in the side repeatedly to further take wind out of his sails, kneeing the other side as Pereira is stuck clinging to Hernandez’ left wrist. Hernandez paints Pereira’s face with his fists until the horn sounds, and Pereira has somehow reached the championship rounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Hernandez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Hernandez
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Hernandez

Round 4
The tired fighters clap hands to get going, and Hernandez wastes little time to shoot in for a takedown. Pereira remains upright, with Hernandez pushing him to the wire but not able to ground him. Pereira breaks free and times an uppercut, and he kicks the body and eats a right hand. Hernandez hits a takedown even with a knee landing on his jaw, and he begins to smother the Brazilian some more. Pereira leans to his side to not be flattened out in either way, and Hernandez measures him with elbows while smacking him with free right hands. Pereira turns over to his knees to stand back to his feet, and he celebrates a moral victory by stopping a subsequent trip attempt. Hernandez gingerly sets him down, and he uses his body weight to shove Pereira to his seat. Hernandez opens up with elbow after elbow, and he chains several punches together to force Pereira to turn over and put his head on the mat. Hernandez holds on from the side, finding one serious undercut before Pereira gets to a knee. Even totally wiped out, Pereira manages to get back to his feet once more. Hernandez pursues a double and plants Pereira flat on his back, taking to half guard and framing off to drill the Brazilian with hammerfists. Hernandez’ blows begin to get louder and heavier, and Dean watches on closely but is not ready to intervene just yet. Dean asks Pereira to fight back, and Pereira somehow wills himself back to his feet miraculously. Hernandez spins with an elbow, and Pereira is barely able to stand up but is throwing hands. Pereira shoots for a single, and Hernandez easily lowers him to the mat. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 5
The middleweights hug it out as they have gotten through 20 minutes of combat, and Hernandez wants nothing more than to drag the fight to his world. Pereira survives the first attempt, and hits his hands and knees on the second. Pereira wrenches his way upright despite a record number of takedown attempts at middleweight put on him. Hernandez goes for one more and digs deep to scoop Pereira off his feet and dump on him on his backside. Hernandez moves to half guard rather than side control so he can establish more control, and he sharpens his elbow and slashes it down like a horror movie villain to spilt Pereira’s eyebrow wide open. Blood is soon to flow, and he turns over to halt the bludgeoning. Dean calls for Pereira to fight back, and Hernandez seizes his moment, knowing that he does not need much more to get a stoppage. “Fluffy” lets his man have it with a final salvo of elbows, finishing the job and further extending his impressive win streak. Dean waves them off, and Pereira appears to still want to continue fighting as he doggedly clings to Hernandez’ leg until Dean lets him know the fight is over. This performance will likely hurl the Californian to new heights, and he admits he does not know the roster well enough to know a proper name to call out. Instead, he asks the UFC brass to give him a title eliminator, believing he needs one more win to get a crack at gold. There will be a wealth of options at his disposal, and most names in the top 10 are fresh matchups for him. When he takes on his next challenge, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Anthony Hernandez def. Michel Pereira R5 2:22 via TKO (Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Angelo picks Michel Pereira as an underdog, having bet on him at +135. He believes Pereira's athleticism, power, and grappling are too much for Anthony Hernandez, whose only path to victory is grappling. He thinks Pereira is the more dynamic and dangerous fighter, and that Hernandez cannot out-strike him. He notes Pereira's recent success at middleweight and dismisses cardio concerns, saying Pereira has shown he can maintain pace. He is confident Pereira wins.

bet on Pereira at +135
"Michelle P is the pick and I think we're going to Rattle off a couple of Underdog wins"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez by third-round submission. He sees it as Pereira early, Hernandez late. Pereira has three quick wins but gasses; Hernandez has great cardio and grappling. If Hernandez survives the first five to seven minutes, he will take over, take Pereira down, and finish him in the third round. He mentions a good live bet spot.

third round submission, live bet
"I like Hernandez here probably a good live bet spot for sure um but yeah I like Hernandez to get it done I'll say third round submission for for Anthony Hernandez"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Connor picks Hernandez, comparing his style to a larger, more skilled Tristan Connelly who will make Pereira pay for every bad decision. He notes that Hernandez's pace and pressure grappling are exactly the kind of game that troubled Pereira in the past. However, he acknowledges that Hernandez might get knocked out early, as he has been hurt in many of his recent wins.

"I am very much inclined to pick Anthony Hernandez while also having to acknowledge that he might just get dusted"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2026 (fight day)
Anthony Hernandez

Lucrative James believes Fluffy Hernandez will overwhelm Sean Strickland with constant forward pressure, takedown attempts, and volume. He notes that Strickland struggles when opponents don't let him establish his jab and one-two rhythm. James predicts Hernandez will win a decision by outworking Strickland over five rounds.

"I think Fluffy Hernandez has a lot of volume... he's going to walk forward, shoot takedowns, throw kicks, throw punches... I believe that is the way to offset Shawn's game entirely."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Pereira will be dangerous in the opening five minutes, but Hernandez has done a great job wearing opponents down, keeping them in the clinch, taking them down, and utilizing submission attempts. Hernandez will wear Pereira down and get a finish in the third or fourth round.

finish in round 3 or 4
"I think that Hernandez has done a great job in terms of finding ways to wear opponents down keep them in the clinch take them to the ground Matt return them utilize a ton of submission attempts but eventually wear …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

The Guru picks Pereira despite acknowledging Hernandez's grappling skills. He believes Pereira's athleticism, power, and body work will be too much, predicting an early finish by TKO or submission. He notes Pereira has finished all his middleweight opponents quickly and envisions Pereira stuffing a takedown, landing knees to the body, and getting a guillotine or rear-naked choke.

early finish, TKO or submission, body work
"I'm going to go Mel P I think he's two athletic too strong too powerful"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Zane picks Pereira because of his insane speed at middleweight, which he believes Hernandez will not be ready for. He acknowledges that if Hernandez survives the early onslaught, he will likely take over with pressure and grappling, but Zane trusts Pereira's athleticism to get the job done early. He notes that Pereira has learned to pace himself after the Tristan Connelly loss, but still has that loss in him.

Pereira opened at +132, now +115; Hernandez opened -147, now -128
"I am gonna take Pereira cuz he's just so goddamn fast at middleweight"
WIN vs Ihor Potieria
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 0:54 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michel Pereira 0 6 of 10 60% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:09
Ihor Potieria 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michel Pereira 0 6 of 10 60% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:09
Ihor Potieria 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michel Pereira 6 of 10 60% 4 of 7 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 4
Ihor Potieria 2 of 3 66% 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michel Pereira 6 of 10 60% 4 of 7 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 4
Ihor Potieria 2 of 3 66% 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michel Pereira vs. Ihor Potieria
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pereira (-535), Potieria (+400)

Round 1
Keeping the action pushing, surging wild man Pereira (30-11, 2 NC; 8-2 UFC) is ready to push his win streak to eight at the expense of struggling Ukrainian Potieria (20-5, 2-3 UFC). Since moving to middleweight, Pereira has appeared to have leveled up, while Potieria also shows that changing gears to 185 pounds did him some good. Referee Fernando Portella will see who makes it out of this encounter, and before it begins, the fighters sternly bump fists together. Pereira hops from side to side, his hands not particularly high, and he ignores a low kick coming his way to jab the body and follow it with a straight punch to the same target. Potieria retaliates with a slapping leg kick, and Pereira leaps at him with a straight right hand that knocks Potieria off his feet. The maniac Brazilian back flips and lands with his knee on Potieria, which is an illegal blow as Potieria is grounded. Nevertheless, Portella stands back, marveling at the move pulled off before his eyes. Pereira decides to latch onto a guillotine choke, and he allows Potieria to stand up and wrench the neck on the way up. Pereira squeezes with all his might, and “The Duelist” frantically taps out. As Pereira releases the grip, Potieria falls to his back, completely unconscious. Before Portella can reach him, Potieria’s head clatters lifelessly off the canvas. Pereira solemnly walks away, until he sees that Potieria has regained consciousness, and he starts dancing to celebrate. Meanwhile, commission officials speak to UFC brass about the foul, determining whether or not it impacted the result and if Pereira should be penalized for it. Given the nature of the strike, a disqualification is not off the table--although Portella did not call the foul during the action, so that may be unlikely--and a post-fight review might also find another result.

The Official Result
Michel Pereira def. Ihor Potieria R1 0:54 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Angelo is confident in Pereira, citing his speed, power, creativity, and grappling. He notes Potieria is a technical striker but hittable and with poor takedown defense. He expects Pereira to win by finish.

Angelo says 'he probably wins by finish'
"Michelle peda is the pick and he probably wins by finish"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Big Brady is high on Pereira's middleweight resurgence, noting his two quick finishes. He views Potieria as a step down and believes Pereira will knock him out in the first round, possibly mid to late.

"I think he Sparks Pia I think he does it in the first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Cody picks Pereira, noting his improved fight IQ, cardio, and well-roundedness at middleweight. He believes Potieria is a one-dimensional knockout artist with poor durability and cardio. Cody expects Pereira to win, likely by knockout.

Pereira by KO
"I think he wins probably by knockout..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Daniel Vreeland leans with Pereira but considers it a dog-or-pass situation. He acknowledges Potieria's recent improvements, including better cardio and confidence, but believes Pereira's top-15 trajectory and finishing ability give him the edge. He suggests that Pereira's decision prop at +550 might be a better value than the moneyline, as Potieria could last the distance.

Pereira by decision +550
"I'm gonna lean with Michelle but I'mma keep it a buck as always I think this is a dogger pass situation"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Michel Pereira. He notes that Pereira has chilled out his wild style since gassing out against Tristan Connelly, and has been on a seven-fight winning streak. Vreeland thinks Pereira will win easily, though he doesn't elaborate on a specific method. He later mentions that Pereira's submission prop has moved from +650 to +370, indicating the books are aware of his submission threat.

"I think he was gassing himself out being a wild man so yeah yeah that that's his lost to Tristan Connelly right like that's how he lost he's been weird chose not to do that from then on"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Jeff Fox is very confident in Michel Pereira, calling him a 'demolisher' and noting his seven-fight winning streak since two losses. Fox explains that one loss was due to an illegal knee against Diego Sanchez, and the other was a short-notice grappling loss to Tristan Connelly. Since then, Pereira has been more measured and finished opponents like Andre Petroski. Fox believes Potieria is not UFC caliber, with wins only over aged fighters like Shogun. He expects Pereira to do whatever he wants, and later in the show he picks Pereira by submission for the Hungry Man parlay.

Pereira by submission +370 (part of Hungry Man parlay)
"I don't think he's UFC caliber if I'm being completely honest with potier I think they're giving Michelle paa a chance to do whatever he wants in there"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Michel Pereira

Pereira is on a crazy run, harnessing his big striking power over 15 minutes. His speed and power advantage will be enough to find Potieria's chin and put him out clean.

knockout
"I expect his speed and power advantage to be more than enough for him to go out there and find the chin of portieria and putting him out clean"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Paul picks Pereira, highlighting his 8-2 UFC record, athleticism, and evolution into a winning style. He dismisses Potieria's chances, citing his poor durability, cardio, and ground game. Paul sees Pereira as a rightful favorite.

"Gotta go with Pereira... I understand why he's the big favorite."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

The MMA Guru picks Michel Pereira, praising his skills at middleweight and noting that welterweights often make better middleweights. He highlights Pereira's wins over Andre Petroski and Maxime Gremont, and predicts a first-round rear-naked choke. He criticizes Potieria's record and recent performances, including a loss to Shogun Rua.

rear naked choke round one
"I'm going to say rear naked choke round one for Mel per"
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 1:01 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michel Pereira 0 11 of 15 73% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:18
Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michel Pereira 0 11 of 15 73% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:18
Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michel Pereira 11 of 15 73% 5 of 9 6 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0
Michał Oleksiejczuk 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michel Pereira 11 of 15 73% 5 of 9 6 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0
Michał Oleksiejczuk 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michal Oleksiejczuk vs. Michel Pereira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pereira (-148), Oleksiejczuk (+124)

Round 1
A casual observer might look at this battle of Michel vs. Michal and not immediately know which one competed at light heavyweight recently. By the size of Pereira (29-11, 2 NC; 7-2 UFC), he does not look like the kind of person that made welterweight in 2022. On the other hand, Oleksiejczuk (19-6, 1 NC; 7-4, 1 NC UFC) appears well-suited for his newer, lighter weight class, and his knockout last year over Chidi Njokuani shines on his ledger. Pereira is psyched to compete in Miami, and he brings his cousin with him to do a synchronized, choreographed dance before walking out. This potentially wild 185-pound affair will be officiated by referee Dan Miragliotta, and there is a quick glove touch from the competitors to get it going. Pereira hops back and forth, changing stances, and he dodges a right hand and rips two kicks to the body. Oleksiejczuk goes over the top with a right hook, and Pereira backs off and skirts to the side. Pereira lands two speedy punches before springing to the side, and he drives a right hand on the solar plexus and hurts Oleksiejczuk. Oleksiejczuk backs off to the fence, bent over but trying to remain on his feet, and Pereira charges at him and knees him twice in the same spot to buckle the Polish fighter’s knees.
Oleksiejczuk slumps to the ground, and Pereira leaps around to take his back and grab hold of a rear-naked choke without even bothering to get a hook in. The Brazilian locks down the choke and his forearm slides beneath the chin, and he squeezes with all his might. Oleksiejczuk does not once consider tapping, and he fades into unconsciousness as the submission puts him all the way out.
Miragliotta pulls them apart when recognizing Oleksiejczuk is out cold, and Pereira rushes to the center of the cage and breakdances to celebrate. What a performance for Pereira, who has now won seven in a row and may soon be a contender at his new weight class of middleweight.

The Official Result
Michel Pereira def. Michal Oleksiejczuk R1 1:01 via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Angelo picks Michel Pereira, citing his better cardio, power, and grappling. He notes Oleksiejczuk has a great chin but can fade. He has a half-unit bet on Pereira at -130, but keeps it small because Oleksiejczuk could survive early and outpoint him.

Half unit bet on Pereira at -130.
"I still think P wins this fight and I do like the odds at minus 130 I've got a little bit of a bet on that as well half a unit on P here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Big Brady picks Michał Oleksiejczuk to win by decision. He notes that while Pereira has a BJJ black belt, he doesn't wrestle often and lacks the cardio to grapple for 15 minutes. He expects the fight to stay on the feet, where Oleksiejczuk's forward pressure, body work, and volume will wear down Pereira and win the later rounds.

win by decision
"I'm going to go Mel o to win this fight Win It by decision I think the bodyw work's going to come into play the cardio the volume is all going to come into play"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Cody notes that Pereira has matured and now fights more conservatively, using his accuracy and wrestling. He thinks Oleksiejczuk is a reckless brawler with poor takedown defense, and Pereira will counter him and mix in takedowns to win a decision.

"I will go with Pereira"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Oleksiejczuk has great durability and forward pressure, marching forward and breaking opponents with his boxing. He has eaten clean shots and continued to push. Pereira is dangerous early with his unorthodox power, but Oleksiejczuk's durability should allow him to weather the early storm. As the fight goes on, Oleksiejczuk will start to catch Pereira, coral him against the cage, and land combinations. I expect Oleksiejczuk to get a finish in the second or third round, possibly by knockout.

Oleksiejczuk by knockout, live betting Oleksiejczuk after first round
"I have to lean with the O shuk side here as I believe that his durability will allow him to kind of just way through the early threat that Pera normally uh implements in his fights and from there I …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Paul agrees, highlighting Pereira's improved fight IQ and the fact that he looked great at 185. He thinks Oleksiejczuk's wrestling is exploitable and that Pereira has multiple ways to win.

"Pereira is the pick for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

The MMA Guru picks Michał Oleksiejczuk, citing concerns about Michel Pereira's finishing ability and cardio. He notes Pereira failed to finish chinny fighters like Andre Fialho and Nico Price, and that Oleksiejczuk is extremely tough and has power. He predicts Oleksiejczuk will pressure Pereira, take him down, and finish with a body shot TKO in round two.

round two body shot TKO
"I'm GNA say round two body shot TKO from maau Alex huk"
TKO (punches) R1 1:06 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Oct 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michel Pereira 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andre Petroski 1 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michel Pereira 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andre Petroski 1 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michel Pereira 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andre Petroski 6 of 18 33% 5 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michel Pereira 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andre Petroski 6 of 18 33% 5 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 12
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michel Pereira vs. Andre Petroski
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pereira (-180), Petroski (+150)

Round 1
Action shifts to the middleweight division, where Pereira (28-11, 6-2 UFC) takes on Andrei Petroski (10-1, 5-0 UFC) in one of the more anticipated bouts on the card. Petroski fills in for Marc-Andre Barriault on short notice. Tognoni steps up to preside over the match. Petroski takes the center of the cage, with his Brazilian counterpart bouncing on the balls of his feet. Pereira using stance switches and feints to keep him guessing.
Pereira floors him with a thudding right hand and buries him with standing-to-ground punches. Petroski never intelligently defended himself once the barrage started
.

The Official Result
Michel Pereira def. Andre Petroski—TKO (Punches) 1:06 R1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Angelo is confident in Michel Pereira due to Petroski stepping up on short notice with questionable cardio. He notes Pereira is taller, has decent cardio, and is the busier fighter. He thinks Petroski's cardio issues will be exacerbated by the short notice, and Pereira should win.

"I'm going to go Michelle P here and I'm pretty confident in that and it's really because of the short notice"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Andre Petroski

Big Brady picks Andre Petroski to win by third-round TKO. He notes Pereira has only fought strikers and lost to grappler Tristan Connelly, while Petroski is a big middleweight with strong grappling. He expects both to tire, but Petroski's cardio holds up and he gets a late finish.

Petroski by TKO in round 3
"I'm going to take patoski here I'm sure I'm going to be absolutely on Island here but I think this fight's going to be very close and competitive and I'm going to say pataski goes out there and finishes Pereira …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Cody picks Pereira, emphasizing his excellent takedown defense and the fact that Petroski relies heavily on takedowns. He notes that Petroski gasses out and that judges are now scoring damage and volume over control time. Cody believes Pereira's striking and cardio advantage will carry him, and that Petroski's path to victory is narrow.

"Michelle Pereira I certainly don't mind"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

The host picks Michel Pereira but is queasy about the minus 220 price due to Petroski's early grappling danger. He expects violence and a late stoppage, specifically a third-round knockout by Pereira. He suggests the under as a better bet if the price is right.

Pereira by third round knockout; under 1.5 rounds if plus money
"I'm going to go with Pereira here not so hot on the money line but I feel like vience is going to be the spot it's going to be Pereira by third round knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Paul picks Pereira, citing his takedown defense (92% in UFC) and improved fight IQ. He notes that Pereira has stopped doing reckless moves and is fighting more fundamentally. Paul believes Pereira's cardio will be better at 185 lbs and that he can stuff Petroski's takedowns and out-strike him. He acknowledges the price (-200) is steep but thinks Pereira wins.

Over 2.5 rounds at -105
"I'll pick Pereira"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

The MMA Guru picks Michel Pereira to win by TKO over Andre Petroski. He argues that welterweights moving up to middleweight are technically better, citing examples. He criticizes Petroski's last performance against Gerald Meerschaert, saying he looked terrible and took heavy damage. He notes Petroski is fighting on short notice (8 weeks after a war) and doesn't trust his cardio. He believes Pereira has a massive striking advantage and explosive hips to get back up if taken down.

TKO
"I'm going to go Mel paa I think he's got much better striking much better technique"
Niko Price - Fight History
LOSS vs Michael Chiesa
Submission R1 1:03 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Chiesa 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:23
Niko Price 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Chiesa 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:23
Niko Price 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Chiesa 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Niko Price 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Chiesa 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Niko Price 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Big Brady picks Michael Chiesa to win by first-round submission. He is very confident, noting Niko Price's recent brutal knockout losses and decline. He believes Price has taken too much damage and Chiesa's grappling will be overwhelming. He expects Chiesa to take Price down and submit him easily, comparing it to a hot knife through butter.

Chiesa by submission round 1
"I think Michael Chiesa goes out there. I think he takes down Niko Price, and I think he runs through him like a hot knife through butter."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Cody believes Chiesa will win via submission, citing Price's poor grappling and Chiesa's rear-naked choke. He sees this as a perfect retirement fight for Chiesa in front of his home crowd.

"Michael Chiesa is going to get the takedowns. And when he takes him down, he's going to sub him."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Connor states that at any point in their careers, Michael Chiesa would have beaten Niko Price. He notes that Price is a booty call fighter who hasn't been training, has been brutally finished in his last two fights, and is slower than ever. Chiesa has a great chin, has never been knocked out, and can control the fight and take it to a realm where Price is not dangerous.

Odds: Chiesa opened -500, now -600; Price opened +375, now +425.
"I think Michael Kiesa would have beaten Nico Price at every single point."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Daniel sees Chiesa as a level above Price historically, and expects him to use his physicality to secure a submission win in his retirement fight. He notes Price's decline and Chiesa's ability to drop opponents.

"I think that Chiesa's going to be able to use that physicality, backpack Niko Price, come out here and probably get a rear naked choke."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Mar 28, 2026 (fight day)
Michael Chiesa

The host is extremely confident Chiesa will win, calling it a great stylistic matchup. Price has poor takedown defense and ground game, while Chiesa is a high-level grappler. Even with Chiesa's cardio issues, he should easily take Price down and submit him. However, the host does not bet the moneyline due to the steep price (-834) and instead prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop.

Bets under 2.5 rounds as a better alternative to moneyline.
"I think it's quite likely Chiesa will take Price down and submit him pretty quickly."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

The host sees this as a favorable matchup for Chiesa, who should be able to take Price down and submit him. He notes Price's recent durability issues and Chiesa's grappling prowess. He expects a submission win, likely by rear-naked choke, and doesn't mind parlaying Chiesa at the heavy odds.

submission, parlay piece
"I don't mind parlaying Kiesta at this number. Uh I know he's at the end of his career, this is his retirement fight, but Nico Price at this point in time is a layup fight for him to get a …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Paul agrees, noting Chiesa's wrestling advantage and Price's recent knockout loss. He expects Chiesa to win easily, likely by submission.

"Chiesa wins this fight pretty... He's a parlay piece this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Chiesa

The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa, citing his grappling and size advantage. He believes Chiesa's experience and strength will allow him to control the fight, though he notes Chiesa's chin is suspect. He thinks Nico Price's best days are behind him and that Price has been taking damage recently. He even suggests a possible Chiesa KO on the feet.

"I think Kasa wins this with his grappling, dude."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Zane agrees that Chiesa is a clear favorite, noting that Price is a booty call fighter who hasn't been training and has been brutally finished recently. He mentions that Chiesa's retirement helped him recollect himself, and he's been looking composed and collected. He also notes that Price's power is less present and his wild grappling won't serve him here.

Odds: Chiesa opened -500, now -600; Price opened +375, now +425.
"Not a close booking at this point price is looking slower than ever."
KO R1 1:42 · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikolay Veretennikov 0 19 of 30 63% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Niko Price 0 9 of 23 39% 12 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikolay Veretennikov 0 19 of 30 63% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Niko Price 0 9 of 23 39% 12 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikolay Veretennikov 19 of 30 63% 12 of 22 6 of 7 1 of 1 10 of 21 9 of 9 0 of 0
Niko Price 9 of 23 39% 7 of 19 1 of 1 1 of 3 9 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikolay Veretennikov 19 of 30 63% 12 of 22 6 of 7 1 of 1 10 of 21 9 of 9 0 of 0
Niko Price 9 of 23 39% 7 of 19 1 of 1 1 of 3 9 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nikolay Veretennikov vs. Niko Price
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Veretennikov (-225); Price (+185)

Round 1
A pink slip derby at 170 pounds comes next as Kazakhstan native Veretennikov (13-7, 1-3 UFC) looks to get back in the win column at the expense of the similarly skidding Price (16-9, 2 NC; 8-9, 2 NC UFC). Referee Chris Tognoni will know first who ends up prevailing, and he stands guard until needed. Late replacement Price offers a sporting tap of gloves, and it is accepted.
Price leads off with a sweeping low kick, and he leaps forward to engage, throwing hands. Veretennikov meets him in the pocket with his fists, and he ends a combo with a low kick that makes Price wince. Veretennikov lands on the Floridian cleanly upstairs, knocking him back and winding up in a clinch. Veretennikov’s lumps up the midsection with knees, setting them up when an opening presents itself to unleash them. He frames off with right hands, and Price beats him to the punch on the way to a reset. Price wades into the fray, and Veretennikov busts him in the chops with his counters. Veretennikov’s heavy hands back Price against the fence after blocking a front kick, and he smashes Price in the face with a right hand that shakes him up badly. Veretennikov appears surprised that Price’s hands dropped from the first blow, and he delivers a concussive knee to the jaw that puts Price on ice skates.
Veretennikov stands Price back up with an elbow that partially shut his lights off, and he knocks a semi-conscious Price’s head around with huge swings until an intervening Tognoni realizes that Price is completely out on his feet with one finger stuck in the cage the only thing keeping him from collapsing.
The mighty knockout is a huge feather in the cap of Veretennikov, whose roster spot might have been terminated with a defeat. Price comes to, and he does not know what happened, upset that the fight has been stopped but unsure why. He manages to come around, and he gives it up for the fighter named “Gladiator” who just deprived him of his consciousness.

The Official Result
Nikolay Veretennikov def. Niko Price R1 1:42 via KO (Elbow and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Nikolay Veretennikov

Angelo picks Nikolay Veretennikov, reasoning that he is a powerful striker who hits hard, while his opponent Jose Henrique (Niko Price) is very hittable. He acknowledges that Veretennikov has trouble with takedowns but thinks if he doesn't worry about that and just moves forward, he can win or finish the fight. He calls it a low-level fight and uses simple math: good striker vs guy who gets hit.

"I'm going to pick Nikolai here. He is the slight underdog. Neither one of these guys are very good, but let's just simple math it."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Cody leans towards Niko Price as a dog, noting Veretennikov's unimpressive record and Price's toughness. He admits Price is a shell of his former self but sees a path via takedowns or durability. Cody is not confident and will wait for weigh-ins.

"I'm tempted to take a dog shot on Nico Price. I don't know if I'm going to have the balls to actually click that button."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nikolay Veretennikov

Connor agrees with Zane, calling the fight terrible but picking Veretennikov. He notes that Price is a glass cannon who no longer has the speed or willingness to pull the trigger, and that Veretennikov should have this in the bag even if he doesn't press. Connor emphasizes that Price will walk onto shots.

Veretennikov opened at -325, currently -275; Price opened at +275, currently +235
"I'm picking Veretennikov, but God damn it."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nikolay Veretennikov

Paul picks Nikolay Veretennikov, citing Price's decline in durability and cardio. He notes Veretennikov's power and body work, and Price's poor takedown defense. Paul expects Veretennikov to win by knockout or decision, though the price is high.

"I think Nikolai Rednikov gets him out of there."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2026 (fight day)
Nikolay Veretennikov

The host picks Nikolay Veretennikov over Niko Price. He notes Veretennikov took Michael Morales to a split decision, though he looked iffy against Prado. He thinks Price has lost too many times, moves slow, and despite some power and athleticism, Veretennikov should win a competitive 29-28 decision.

29-28 competitive decision
"I'm going to go with Nikolay Veretennikov getting this one done by 29-28 competitive decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nikolay Veretennikov

Zane picks Veretennikov despite calling the fight awful. He argues that Niko Price is washed up, slower, and more hittable, and that Veretennikov should win by using his reach and straight punches. Zane notes that Price can't do anything without running into a straight punch, and Veretennikov could also take him down.

Veretennikov opened at -325, currently -275; Price opened at +275, currently +235
"You gotta pick Veretennikov. You have to pick Veretennikov. Niko price can't do anything without running into a straight punch."
LOSS vs Jacobe Smith
Submission R2 4:03 · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Jun 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Niko Price 0 34 of 61 55% 46 of 76 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Jacobe Smith 0 46 of 74 62% 73 of 101 2 of 2 100% 1 0 5:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Niko Price 0 19 of 37 51% 23 of 42 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Jacobe Smith 0 33 of 53 62% 46 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:06
2 Niko Price 0 15 of 24 62% 23 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jacobe Smith 0 13 of 21 61% 27 of 35 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Niko Price 34 of 61 55% 19 of 43 4 of 7 11 of 11 27 of 49 3 of 4 4 of 8
Jacobe Smith 46 of 74 62% 39 of 66 4 of 5 3 of 3 22 of 41 2 of 2 22 of 31
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Niko Price 19 of 37 51% 10 of 26 3 of 5 6 of 6 17 of 34 1 of 1 1 of 2
Jacobe Smith 33 of 53 62% 27 of 46 3 of 4 3 of 3 17 of 31 1 of 1 15 of 21
2 Niko Price 15 of 24 62% 9 of 17 1 of 2 5 of 5 10 of 15 2 of 3 3 of 6
Jacobe Smith 13 of 21 61% 12 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 10 1 of 1 7 of 10
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jacobe Smith

Angelo picks Jacobe Smith because he sees him as a strong prospect with wrestling and finishing ability, while Niko Price is older, has a weak chin, and is being fed to prospects. He notes that Price is fun but past his prime, and Smith's wrestling and pace will be too much. He warns against betting such heavy favorites, saying risking $1400 to make $100 is not worth it.

Angelo mentions that props like 'by finish' or 'first round finish' might offer value, but advises against parlaying minus 1400 favorites.
"Jacob is going to be the pick. The oddsmakers know it. We know it. You can't do anything with these odds."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Jacobe Smith

Big Brady is very confident in Jacobe Smith, describing it as a bad matchup for Niko Price. He notes Price is older, has taken a lot of damage, and is on a decline, while Smith has power and wrestling. Brady believes Smith can knock Price out on the feet or take him down and use vicious ground and pound. He predicts a first-round knockout, comparing it to the Wellmaker vs Moutinho fight.

Smith wins by first round knockout
"I got to go Smith here. I think it's going to be a first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jacobe Smith

Connor agrees, picking Smith. He notes Price is too slow and awkward, while Smith hits hard and throws clean punches. Smith should finish Price, but the odds are too steep to bet.

Odds: Price +1222, Smith -1515. Connor says 'avoid' betting.
"He should kill Nico price."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jacobe Smith

The host expects Jacobe Smith to flatline Niko Price within the first round and a half, citing Smith's youth and power. He notes the odds are steep at minus 2000, but still predicts an early knockout finish.

early knockout finish, first round and a half, minus 2000 odds mentioned
"I'm expecting Jacobe Smith to go out there and flatline Nico Price within the first round and a half."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jacobe Smith

The host calls this a 'big lock of the card', confidently predicting Jacobe Smith to win by first-round TKO. He highlights Smith's impressive KO debut and believes he will repeat that performance against an aging Niko Price who looked geriatric in his last fight. The host notes that Smith's grappling and power will be too much for Price.

first round TKO
"I think Jacob Smith's going to get a very very very quick finish here over Nico Price. In fact, I'm calling a first few minute TKO for Jacob Smith."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jacobe Smith

Zane picks Smith, noting Price is past his prime and has lost most recent fights. Smith is a fast, powerful wrestler with clean combinations who should sleep Price. However, Zane warns the odds are too wide to bet.

Odds: Price +1222, Smith -1515. Zane says 'basically do not bet on this fight' and 'no value to be gotten in betting those numbers on Smith.'
"So yeah, I just got to pick Jacoby Smith."
LOSS vs Themba Gorimbo
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Oct 12, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Themba Gorimbo 0 68 of 127 53% 141 of 223 7 of 9 77% 2 0 9:14
Niko Price 0 16 of 53 30% 58 of 100 0 of 3 0% 1 0 1:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Themba Gorimbo 0 32 of 67 47% 45 of 87 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:46
Niko Price 0 6 of 17 35% 13 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Themba Gorimbo 0 32 of 53 60% 52 of 76 4 of 5 80% 0 0 1:52
Niko Price 0 9 of 31 29% 19 of 41 0 of 2 0% 1 0 1:00
3 Themba Gorimbo 0 4 of 7 57% 44 of 60 2 of 3 66% 1 0 4:36
Niko Price 0 1 of 5 20% 26 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Themba Gorimbo 68 of 127 53% 44 of 97 9 of 15 15 of 15 43 of 85 6 of 13 19 of 29
Niko Price 16 of 53 30% 13 of 43 2 of 5 1 of 5 11 of 48 5 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Themba Gorimbo 32 of 67 47% 21 of 55 2 of 3 9 of 9 23 of 47 1 of 4 8 of 16
Niko Price 6 of 17 35% 5 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 2 4 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Themba Gorimbo 32 of 53 60% 21 of 37 6 of 11 5 of 5 16 of 33 5 of 9 11 of 11
Niko Price 9 of 31 29% 7 of 26 1 of 3 1 of 2 6 of 28 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Themba Gorimbo 4 of 7 57% 2 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 2
Niko Price 1 of 5 20% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Themba Gorimbo vs. Niko Price
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gorimbo (-278), Price (+225)

Round 1
One of two entries tonight in the “welterweight action fight club” will play out next, as Gorimbo (13-4, 3-1 UFC) is entering that category while Price (16-7, 2 NC; 8-7, 2 NC UFC) has been a member practically since day one. Any matchup in that section of 170-pound fighters seems to have a greater likelihood—anecdotally, with those numbers not officially tracked right now—of receiving some sort of “of the night” bonus. Both fighters could use it, as Gorimbo is famous for having seven dollars in his bank account while Price has six kids to feed. Referee Herb Dean will serve as the Octagon ranger, and when he calls for them to fight, they touch gloves. Price walks directly into a front kick when he moves to the center of the cage, and he further gets his bell rung by flying punches from Gorimbo. The Zimbabwe native lets his hands fly, and Price has to reset as he gets clipped with a left hand. Gorimbo aims two thudding leg kicks to the front leg of his foe, and when Price tries to counter with a third, Gorimbo dodges and connects with it. Gorimbo further does damage with his calf kick, and he strings together a pair of straight punches with a step-in knee to the belly. Price takes another chopping kick as he slowly advances, and Gorimbo sticks him with a right hand. Price attempts a body kick, and he gets caught with a fastball of a right hand. Price still marches ever onward, through a low kick and a one-two without flinching. Price squares up, opening him up to three punches, a leg kick and a takedown shot. “The Answer” deposits Price on his back, where he starts working with elbows and punches. Price gets stacked up when attempting an armbar, as Gorimbo punches through it to stop it from materializing. Gorimbo steps over to half guard as Price defends with a kimura sweep, and Gorimbo breaks out of it to open Price up with punches and effective elbows. Price looks to sit up, and Gorimbo hops around to take his back and get both hooks in. Price stands up, and Gorimbo hangs on his foe’s back and grips hold of a neck crank. Price responds by slamming Gorimbo on his head, and Gorimbo rides it out to secure a body triangle. From an awkward angle, the two punch one another until the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo

Round 2
Price starts out the second round marching Gorimbo down, putting a jab and a front kick in his face early. Gorimbo chains punches together in response, with two up top and then a few to the body. Price retaliates with a body kick, and he catches Gorimbo coming in but still eats a few back. Gorimbo winds up with his power calf kick, and he plants the ball of his foot on Price’s sternum. Price punches his way into a clinch, and Gorimbo shakes him up with left hooks and uppercuts up close before tackling Price to the mat. Price turns to his stomach to survive and stand back up, all while eating clubbing left hands. Price gets to his knees and then back upright, and Gorimbo hurriedly mat returns him. Price once more stands, and Gorimbo is imposing his full weight on him, kneeing him in the breadbasket. They trade knees from close proximity, and Gorimbo tries for a trip on the inside but does not land it. Price turns him around as they dirty box with one another, and Price attacks a double that is easily stifled. Price goes after another double, transitioning to a single as Gorimbo’s hips are wide. Gorimbo turns the corner and knees Price in the chest, and they get back upright and split up. Price stalks a potentially tiring Gorimbo down and slugs him in the chops, getting his attention with power punches until they get clinched. Gorimbo responds with a knee on the break, and Price is out of range. Price marches forward to connect with a one-two, and Gorimbo slaps his front leg and then jabs him to the body with a front kick. Price meanders forward, left eye bloodied, and he walks into a takedown shot. Gorimbo pushes through his hips, tosses aside a leglock and starts smacking Price upside the head. Price stands up, and Gorimbo wrenches him down by imposing his body weight on him. As Price defends with a kimura, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo

Round 3
The welterweights reach Round 3, tired and beat up but still ready for another five minutes. Gorimbo leads off with two chopping kicks, hits a third and then goes up top with his other leg. Price sees it coming in the nick of time and defends a subsequent shot with a guillotine choke. Gorimbo powers through the choke to slam Price on his back, opening up with ground-and-pound as Price tries to push off the fence with his foot. Gorimbo controls his man while slinging short right hands, keeping Price trapped between the corner of the floor and the wall. Price again tries to push off the fence, this time tugging on the links with his toes. Dean calls him on this, and Price stops. Price explodes to sit up, only for Gorimbo grind him back down while keeping Price’s right leg laced to stop him from escaping. Price kicks his foe off his chest, and Gorimbo stands and backs up. Price throws a hard kick to the calf from his back, and Gorimbo allows him to do this so he can dive in to reclaim top position. Gorimbo draws further blood with slow but methodical strikes, stepping over to half guard on the other side. Price times this guard pass to burst upright with 55 seconds left in the round. Gorimbo cinches his hands around the waist to dump Price to the floor. Price stands up again through sheer force of will, and Gorimbo hangs on from his back and slides off. Gorimbo looks for an unorthodox banana split, Suloev stretch or kneebar, and time expires before he can get anything.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo (30-27 Gorimbo)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo (30-27 Gorimbo)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gorimbo (30-27 Gorimbo)

The Official Result
Themba Gorimbo def. Niko Price via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Themba Gorimbo

Angelo picks Themba Gorimbo, acknowledging that picking against Niko Price is difficult due to his unpredictability. However, he believes Gorimbo is the overall better fighter with a good combination of technical striking, wrestling, and the ability to push forward. He notes that Price can win on any given day but that Gorimbo's skills should prevail.

"I think TBA is just the overall better fighter and I think he gets it done."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Themba Gorimbo

Big Brady picks Themba Gorimbo to win by first-round knockout. He notes Gorimbo is improving rapidly while Price is diminishing, having been knocked out by Robbie Lawler in 30 seconds and looking poor in recent fights. He questions whether Gorimbo will stand and bang or wrestle, but hopes for an exciting finish. He thinks the line is wild at -375 but still picks Gorimbo. He mentions Gorimbo could also control Price on the ground like he did against Brahimaj.

Gorimbo by first-round knockout
"I'll pick thema to win I guess the the question I have is is how is thema going to approach this fight"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Themba Gorimbo

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Niko Price has looked bad for years and has no way to stop a takedown. He points out that Price's last funky knockout was in 2019 and he has since struggled. Connor believes Gorimbo's wrestling, though not great, is enough to control Price.

"Yeah, like how are you gonna stop somebody from just going out and taking you down? You've never stopped that before"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Daniel is unimpressed with Gorimbo's skills, calling him slow and not a future top-15 guy, but he acknowledges that Price may be too washed to capitalize. He loves Price's ability off his back but is not confident enough to pick him. Daniel decides to pass on betting this fight, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation.

"This is dog or pass... I don't want to plant my flags on a washed up fighter like Nico Price."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Niko Price

The host is surprised the line is so wide, as Gorimbo is on a three-fight winning streak but not all that good. Price has veteran experience and durability; if he holds up early, Gorimbo will struggle to grind him out. Price has a better gas tank and should pull away late, finishing in the second or third round.

finish in second or third round
"I think that eventually leads to a second or third round finish for the big underdog here in Niko Price"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Themba Gorimbo

The MMA Guru picks Themba Gorimbo, citing his speed advantage on the feet and Price's suspect chin. He notes that Gorimbo is on a three-fight win streak and is being given 'layups' by the UFC. He expects Gorimbo to win by TKO on the feet, as Price is too slow and doesn't have the grappling to take Gorimbo down.

TKO
"I'm going to go with them gimbo here over ni price just way faster on the feet I'm actually going to say he gets it done by TKO on the feet"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Themba Gorimbo

Zane thinks Gorimbo can blanket Price with his wrestling, even though Gorimbo's control is poor and he often stalls in ugly positions. He notes that Price has looked washed for years, lacks preventative skills, and has no way to stop takedowns. Zane acknowledges it's not much but believes Gorimbo can tie Price up and slow him down.

"Garimbo I guess yeah, I think them but Garimbo could just go out and blanket him"
WIN vs Alex Morono
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Niko Price 0 108 of 224 48% 138 of 259 5 of 5 100% 0 1 3:37
Alex Morono 0 96 of 210 45% 111 of 225 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Niko Price 0 16 of 51 31% 21 of 58 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:10
Alex Morono 0 34 of 72 47% 40 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
2 Niko Price 0 34 of 65 52% 50 of 83 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:04
Alex Morono 0 21 of 43 48% 30 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
3 Niko Price 0 58 of 108 53% 67 of 118 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Alex Morono 0 41 of 95 43% 41 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Niko Price 108 of 224 48% 78 of 181 24 of 33 6 of 10 78 of 182 9 of 19 21 of 23
Alex Morono 96 of 210 45% 74 of 184 13 of 15 9 of 11 91 of 204 2 of 3 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Niko Price 16 of 51 31% 12 of 45 4 of 5 0 of 1 14 of 47 0 of 2 2 of 2
Alex Morono 34 of 72 47% 26 of 63 4 of 4 4 of 5 32 of 70 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Niko Price 34 of 65 52% 22 of 48 8 of 12 4 of 5 16 of 44 3 of 5 15 of 16
Alex Morono 21 of 43 48% 19 of 40 1 of 2 1 of 1 20 of 42 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Niko Price 58 of 108 53% 44 of 88 12 of 16 2 of 4 48 of 91 6 of 12 4 of 5
Alex Morono 41 of 95 43% 29 of 81 8 of 9 4 of 5 39 of 92 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Angelo picks Alex Morono, ignoring their first fight because it was a while ago and both have evolved. He believes Morono is the more technical striker and better grappler, and that his awkward striking will avoid Niko Price's power. He notes Price is always dangerous but thinks Morono's well-roundedness will prevail.

"I think morono is just the better fighter I think he's the more technical Striker he certainly is the better Grappler"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Alex Morono

Big Brady thinks this fight ends inside the distance with someone getting knocked out. He leans toward Alex Morono getting the knockout, citing Niko Price's shot durability and recent KO loss to Robbie Lawler. He compares it to Morono's KO of Donald Cerrone. However, he notes Price has power and a 90% finish rate, so he will play both sides. He considers Price a live dog at 7,300.

fight doesn't go to decision (-200), Alex Morono wins by knockout
"I think it's probably is marona going out there and getting The Knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Cody leans toward Price, noting his volume and power. He acknowledges Price's durability is questionable but believes Morono's low volume and lack of power make Price live. Cody mentions Price's previous KO of Morono in 2017 and thinks Price can do it again. He warns that Morono may wait for a perfect shot, but Price's pressure could overwhelm him.

"I'm gonna go with the Niko Price direction too... Price has got sickening volume... Morono is not that guy."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Niko Price

Daniel recalls Morono's struggle against Court McGee and notes Price's power. He thinks it's a dog or pass situation and picks Price to win again.

"I'm gonna go Nico price here to beat him a second time"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The host expects a repeat of their first fight, where Morono dominated before getting caught. Price's chin is compromised after recent knockouts, and his confidence is low. Morono's stick-and-move style, power, and defensive jiu-jitsu should allow him to land big shots and finish Price, likely by knockout in the second round.

round 2 knockout
"I think we'll see morono capitalize on that... I think it's ultimately going to be a big shot on the chin that puts Nico price out here so give me Alex morono second round knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Paul leans toward Price, despite acknowledging Price's durability may be fading. He notes Price has sickening volume and power, and Morono's recent performance against Court McGee was poor. Paul thinks Price can outwork Morono and possibly land a KO. He mentions Price's power is the last thing to go and that Morono may be over the hill.

"Everything in my being I know Niko Price is kind of washed but it's like how does Alex Morono lose fights? He gets knocked out... I'm tempted."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The MMA Guru picks Alex Morono, citing Niko Price's recent chin issues and inactivity. He notes that Price has lost his last two by TKO and looked scripted against Lawler. Morono has been more active and consistent, though he didn't look great in his last fight. He predicts Morono by decision, possibly TKO.

Morono by decision
"I'm going to go with Alex morono here um morono by decision TKO maybe but I'll say decision"
LOSS vs Robbie Lawler
KO (punches) R1 0:38 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robbie Lawler 1 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Niko Price 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robbie Lawler 1 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Niko Price 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robbie Lawler 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 4 of 4 0 of 0
Niko Price 2 of 7 28% 0 of 3 1 of 2 1 of 2 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robbie Lawler 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 4 of 4 0 of 0
Niko Price 2 of 7 28% 0 of 3 1 of 2 1 of 2 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Niko Price

Angelo picks Price but is hesitant, calling it a tricky betting spot. He notes Price is younger and less beat up, with similar wild style to Lawler. Lawler is declining and likely to retire. He expects a fun slugfest but is unsure about a finish, and fears the round line might be a trap. He does not place a bet.

No bet, unsure about finish
"Nico price is going to be the pick here he has had some of the biggest line movement on this card"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Robbie Lawler

Big Brady leans towards Robbie Lawler to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Niko Price has looked bad lately, taking damage and battling injuries, while Lawler still has power and showed life against Brian Barbarena. He believes both will stand and bang, and Lawler lands first. He is surprised by the line (Price -260) and thinks Lawler is very live. He mentions that Price blocks punches with his face and has been knocked out recently.

second round knockout
"I'm gonna take Robbie Lawler to get it done I'm gonna take him to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Cody picks Price but doesn't like the -260 price. He thinks Lawler is past his prime and has been finished recently. He considers the under 2.5 rounds as a better bet, expecting a finish. He notes both fighters have trained together at ATT, which could affect the fight.

Under 2.5 rounds (-155 to -160), Price by KO/TKO
"Nico price should be the favorites minus 260 is is definitely not getting my my money but he will be my pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Connor picks Niko Price because Robbie Lawler's style is not built for an aging fighter; his reliance on being in the pocket and taking risks is no longer sustainable. Price is a chaotic puncher who can absorb damage and keep coming, and Lawler's decline in durability and cardio makes him vulnerable. Connor notes that Lawler could try to be more methodical but ultimately the other shoe has dropped.

Same odds commentary as Zane; Connor agrees with the betting line.
"I'm not going to pick him either. At this point, the problems are so compounding for Lawler."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Daniel Levi picks Price, citing his youth and improved volume in recent fights. He notes that Lawler, at 41, is a step slower and has shown a tendency to fade in fights. Levi acknowledges that either fighter could get finished, but believes Price's higher output will allow him to pull away down the stretch. He also mentions that Price has shown good grappling defense and attacks from bottom, which could be a factor if Lawler takes him down. Levi expresses a desire to see Lawler win in his retirement fight but is not counting on it.

"I kind of leaned towards Nico besides the youth is what I was talking about these last few fights he's been putting up more output."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Niko Price

James picks Niko Price to win by knockout. He believes Lawler is washed, citing his performance against Nick Diaz where he was touched up. He trusts Price's durability and power more than Lawler's at this stage. He does not advocate betting Price at -260 moneyline, but likes the knockout prop. He notes Price has been finished before but thinks he will get the KO.

Niko Price wins by KO
"I air on the side that Nico price knocks out Robbie Lawler"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Price has youth, speed, and power advantages, and can outwork Lawler late. Lawler still has technical striking and power early, but his durability and pace are questionable. The fight likely ends in a knockout, with Price finishing Lawler in the later rounds. The fight doesn't go to decision is the favorite prop.

fight doesn't go to decision
"give me a fight doesn't go to the decision as my favorite prop for this fight favorite prediction for this fight but I'm gonna go with the younger fighter here and Nicole price to get his hand raised by TKO."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Paul picks Price, acknowledging Lawler's legendary career but noting he is 41 and not the same fighter. He thinks Price's volume will be too much. He mentions Lawler's recent losses and that he has been fighting for decades. He says he would feel happy if Lawler wins but his bank account prefers Price.

Under 2.5 rounds
"I gotta go with Nico price and if Robbie was a spring want to knock him out like inside my heart I'd feel happy the bank account not the match"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Niko Price

The MMA Guru picks Niko Price to win by KO in the third round. He believes Lawler has lost his pain tolerance and finishing ability, while Price storms forward in later rounds. He cites Price's performances against Michael Pereira and Luke Jumeau as evidence of his late-round pressure, and notes the age and reach advantage for Price.

wins by KO in the third round
"we're gonna see Nico price get a KO win in the third round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Zane picks Niko Price because Robbie Lawler's style is built on narrow margins and he is declining in durability, cardio, and vision. Price is a messy but powerful puncher who can absorb punishment and land a wild shot as Lawler slows down. Zane notes that Lawler could look good early but will likely get caught, and he hopes Lawler wins but cannot pick him.

Lawler opened at +218, currently +221; Price opened at -252, currently -256. Zane says 'you just got to assume everybody should be betting on Niko Price here.'
"I'm going to pick Niko Price and I'm going to feel terrible about it."
LOSS vs Philip Rowe
TKO (punches) R3 3:26 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Philip Rowe 0 110 of 247 44% 150 of 293 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:29
Niko Price 0 63 of 139 45% 64 of 140 1 of 2 50% 2 0 1:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Philip Rowe 0 34 of 87 39% 36 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Niko Price 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Philip Rowe 0 34 of 85 40% 46 of 101 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
Niko Price 0 17 of 40 42% 18 of 41 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:28
3 Philip Rowe 0 42 of 75 56% 68 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Niko Price 0 26 of 46 56% 26 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Philip Rowe 110 of 247 44% 66 of 197 16 of 22 28 of 28 88 of 218 14 of 21 8 of 8
Niko Price 63 of 139 45% 49 of 123 7 of 8 7 of 8 57 of 129 6 of 7 0 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Philip Rowe 34 of 87 39% 12 of 63 5 of 7 17 of 17 30 of 80 4 of 7 0 of 0
Niko Price 20 of 53 37% 12 of 44 3 of 3 5 of 6 19 of 52 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Philip Rowe 34 of 85 40% 20 of 68 9 of 12 5 of 5 29 of 77 5 of 8 0 of 0
Niko Price 17 of 40 42% 13 of 35 3 of 4 1 of 1 15 of 38 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Philip Rowe 42 of 75 56% 34 of 66 2 of 3 6 of 6 29 of 61 5 of 6 8 of 8
Niko Price 26 of 46 56% 24 of 44 1 of 1 1 of 1 23 of 39 3 of 4 0 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Angelo picks Philip Rowe, citing his length, volume, and striking. He notes Rowe's takedown defense isn't great but Niko Price's takedown offense isn't great either. He expresses concern about Price's year off and potential hurricane impact on his training camp. He says he probably won't bet this fight because Price is dangerous and can look amazing or get caught.

Probably won't bet; mentions Price's year off and hurricane impact
"Philip Rowe is going to be the pick I'm probably not going to bet on this fight because somebody like Nico is fun is dangerous and can just come out there and just look amazing"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Big Brady picks Rowe to win by knockout in the second round, citing his reach (80.5 inches), size, and power. He notes Price is hittable (47% striking defense) and unlikely to wrestle. He expects a striking battle where Rowe's length and power prevail, though he acknowledges Price is live for a knockout.

Rowe wins by KO, round 2
"I like row to win pull off the upset and knock out Nico price in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Cody leans towards Rowe as a live underdog, noting his reach and combinations. He thinks Price takes damage and may slow down. He prefers to bet Rowe live after likely losing the first round.

live betting on Rowe after round 1
"I'm more looking towards a live betting option for row and I wouldn't out rule I wouldn't rule out sorry uh switching the pick to Nico price seeing him at weigh-ins hearing some good interviews I could be talked into …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Connor also picks Niko Price, citing Price's experience and well-roundedness. He notes that Rowe has potential but hasn't shown the ability to defend takedowns while striking, and Price has consistent aspects to his game that allow him to stick to his game plan for multiple rounds.

"I'll have to pick Nico price as well. Row is the favorite here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

Daniel Levi picks Philip Rowe to knock out Niko Price. He likes Rowe's reach, straight right, and Jiu-Jitsu, and believes Price is slowing down after ACL surgery. He notes Rowe's slow starts but thinks he will find his range and finish. He is willing to bet the underdog.

Rowe by KO
"I'm gonna go with Phil row to come out here and actually knock out the guy we love... cash this Plus 120"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Niko Price

The host picks Niko Price to win inside the distance, citing Price's experience and ability to drag opponents into a war. He thinks Price will use a grapple-heavy approach to get dominant position and finish Rowe. He notes that Rowe is still green and may not be comfortable in a chaotic fight. He likes the -140 price tag on the veteran.

Niko Price inside the distance
"I like the -140 price tag on the experienced veteran and that's probably the way that I'll be going for this matchup Nico price inside the distance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Paul is torn but picks Price for the show. He notes Price's durability and volume, but acknowledges Rowe's reach and combinations. He doesn't have a strong edge and won't bet it.

"for the purpose of the program I'm picking Nico price but yeah I mean I've already got like a list of things that I'm considering betting this ain't one of them"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Philip Rowe

The MMA Guru picks Philip Rowe, citing Niko Price's poor performance against Alex Oliveira and his long layoff. He thinks Rowe's technical striking and grappling will be enough to win by TKO. He expresses frustration that Price is being fed to Rowe instead of getting a fun matchup.

Rowe by TKO
"I'm going with Philip bro"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Zane picks Niko Price based on experience and resilience, noting that Price has been in more brawls against better fighters and has the option to wrestle if needed. He is hesitant because Price loses often and Rowe could win if he becomes comfortable defending takedowns while striking, but Zane hasn't seen that yet.

"I really have no choice here, but to pick Nico price because things are going to go haywire and I Nico price isn't even the most durable guy in the world, but he's very resilient."
WIN vs Alex Oliveira
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Oct 02, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Niko Price 0 65 of 112 58% 83 of 131 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:14
Alex Oliveira 0 64 of 116 55% 108 of 167 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Niko Price 0 7 of 17 41% 15 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alex Oliveira 0 16 of 22 72% 34 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:48
2 Niko Price 0 19 of 35 54% 29 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:43
Alex Oliveira 0 14 of 26 53% 21 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Niko Price 0 39 of 60 65% 39 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Alex Oliveira 0 34 of 68 50% 53 of 91 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Niko Price 65 of 112 58% 31 of 72 17 of 23 17 of 17 56 of 99 2 of 2 7 of 11
Alex Oliveira 64 of 116 55% 37 of 83 7 of 11 20 of 22 45 of 93 2 of 2 17 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Niko Price 7 of 17 41% 3 of 13 1 of 1 3 of 3 5 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 16 of 22 72% 9 of 14 0 of 1 7 of 7 8 of 13 1 of 1 7 of 8
2 Niko Price 19 of 35 54% 9 of 25 4 of 4 6 of 6 12 of 24 0 of 0 7 of 11
Alex Oliveira 14 of 26 53% 6 of 16 1 of 2 7 of 8 11 of 22 0 of 0 3 of 4
3 Niko Price 39 of 60 65% 19 of 34 12 of 18 8 of 8 39 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 34 of 68 50% 22 of 53 6 of 8 6 of 7 26 of 58 1 of 1 7 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alex Oliveira

Angelo picks Alex Oliveira, assuming veteran savvy will prevail over Niko Price's wildness. He notes that Oliveira is more technical, has more experience, and has more ways to win, but he often gets sucked into brawls. Angelo expects Oliveira to use leg kicks to slow Price down and fight a smart fight. He likes Oliveira in DraftKings at $7,800 and recommends using slates for monkey knife fight to bet on Oliveira's more. He acknowledges that Price could win with a crazy knockout.

more on Alex Oliveira in monkey knife fight slates
"i am gonna pick oliveira here i assume that is veteran savvy he'll fight a smart fight not succumb to his instincts not get sucked into god knows what sloppy war"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 30, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Big Brady picks Niko Price to win inside the distance, citing Oliveira's poor recent form (2-5 in last 7, looking like he doesn't want to be there). Price is the hungrier fighter, comes forward with volume, and doesn't slow down. Oliveira has been finished multiple times (5 submissions, 1 KO) and has slowed down in recent fights. Brady expects Price to finish Oliveira early, possibly by submission given Oliveira's submission losses, and thinks this could be Oliveira's last fight if he loses.

Price inside the distance (KO or submission)
"give me a price give me price to win inside the distance i think he does finish oliveira"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Cody picks Niko Price, noting that Oliveira has declined significantly and is a one-round fighter with poor cardio. Price is competitive in his losses and has shown he can push the pace and wear opponents down. He expects Price to stuff takedowns, keep the fight standing, and take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Price has a baby on the way, which might motivate him.

"minus 165 i got to go with niko price"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Niko Price

Daniel Levi picks Niko Price but expresses concern about laying -190 on him, as he prefers Price as an underdog. He notes Price's improved volume and resilience, while Oliveira is a seasoned vet with clinch knees and power but has shown questionable durability and a tendency to tap quickly. Levi expects a three-round war and thinks Price will edge it out due to digging deeper. He acknowledges a finish is possible but leans decision.

fight of the night candidate
"nico's a guy i'd rather lay a dog price on unless it's guaranteed that this is a first round finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Niko Price

I think Price has improved his volume and grappling, while Oliveira has declined. Price is the more durable and active fighter. Oliveira is a wild card but has looked poor lately. I like Price by KO at +150 and the under 2.5 rounds. Price should overwhelm Oliveira.

Price by KO +150, under 2.5 rounds -145
"I like price here i like price i'm gonna take him by ko as well"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Paul also picks Price, surprised the line is only -165. He notes that Oliveira looks over the hill, with poor weight cuts and lethargic performances. Price has been competitive against top competition and should have a cardio advantage. He expects Price to win by decision or late stoppage.

"i would have to go with nico price in this spot even though it's -165"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Niko Price

The MMA Guru picks Niko Price, noting Alex Oliveira's tendency to fade in the third round and his recent chin issues. Price has cardio and toughness advantages, and he has KO power. He predicts Price will win by TKO in the third round after a competitive first two rounds.

Price by TKO in round 3
"i'm going with nico price tko in the third round"
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Niko Price

Angelo picks Price, believing Price's relentless pressure and durability will draw the crazy out of Pereira, causing him to fade. He notes Pereira has questionable fight IQ and gasses when doing theatrics. He has Price in his DraftKings lineup and plans a moneyline bet.

Moneyline bet on Price
"my pick is nico price i do have niko winning this fight i did put nico in my draftkings lineup"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Big Brady picks Michel Pereira to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Pereira has been fighting smarter, not doing cartwheels, and has power. He highlights Price's lack of striking defense (49%) and high absorption rate (5.83 per minute). He thinks Price will run forward with his hands down and get clipped. He acknowledges Price's power and opportunism but favors Pereira's power and the fact that Price is very hittable.

second round knockout
"i'll go with pereira to knock out nico price but man this is gonna be a fun fight i think someone's getting finished"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Cody leans toward Price as an underdog. He notes Pereira's inconsistency and tendency to fight wild, and Price's power and durability. He thinks Price can capitalize if Pereira gets excited. He calls it a dog or pass.

"i'm thinking underdog play on nicole price"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Daniel Levi picks Michel Pereira to win. He believes Pereira is now dialed in and focused, with athletic tools and diverse weapons. He thinks Pereira will land more effective shots and control the fight, though he acknowledges Niko Price's opportunistic finishing ability and lionheart. He notes that Price has improved his volume but doubts he can maintain that against Pereira. He expects Pereira to win by KO or decision.

Pereira by KO or decision
"i got to go with michelle pereira here to to win a either via knockout or uh via decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Niko Price

Jacob agrees with Angelo, citing cardio as the key factor. He thinks the longer the fight goes, the more it favors Price. He notes Pereira's jiu-jitsu is a threat but believes Price can weather the storm and win late. He originally had Price in his lineup but swapped due to salary constraints.

"the only thing i have listed for my notes on this is cardio and that's why i think nico price going to win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

I'm taking Pereira by decision. He has shown more discipline recently, using movement and volume. Price has power but is more of a one-and-done striker. Pereira's unorthodox style and cardio should allow him to outwork Price over three rounds. As long as he doesn't get caught, he should win. I like Pereira by decision.

Pereira by decision
"i'm going uh michelle pereira minus 155 by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Paul has no clear pick. He discusses both fighters' strengths and weaknesses but finds it too risky. He calls it a dog or pass situation.

"yeah i think it is a dog or past situation"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2021 (fight day)
Michel Pereira

The Guru predicts Pereira will win by second-round rear-naked choke. He expects Price to do well in the first round, pressuring and landing shots, but Pereira will move well and counter with front kicks to the body. As Price hunches over from the body kicks, Pereira will land jabs and right hands. In the second round, Price will rush in and Pereira will catch him with a counter right hand, then take his back and sink in the choke. The Guru initially thought TKO but changed to submission.

Pereira wins by submission (rear-naked choke) in round 2
"michael pay is going to get a second round tko against nico price ... actually eventually nico price gives up his neck and michael payer gets the rear naked choke in round two"