UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Jul 10, 2021 · Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
Age 37
Height 5' 4"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 31
Height 5' 10"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Zhalgas Zhumagulov
5.24 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
5.86 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
1.3 TD Avg
19.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jerome Rivera
3.21 SLpM
33.0% Str. Acc.
2.6 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
40.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Zhalgas Zhumagulov
Moneyline
FanDuel -220
KO/TKO
BetRivers +450
Submission
BetRivers +600
Decision
BetWay -110
Jerome Rivera
Moneyline
BetWay +250
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1200
Submission
BetRivers +900
Decision
BetMGM +600
Zhalgas Zhumagulov - Fight History
LOSS vs Joshua Van
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joshua Van 0 103 of 287 35% 104 of 291 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:10
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 120 of 234 51% 131 of 245 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joshua Van 0 26 of 77 33% 27 of 81 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:10
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 25 of 48 52% 36 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Joshua Van 0 38 of 94 40% 38 of 94 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 51 of 100 51% 51 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
3 Joshua Van 0 39 of 116 33% 39 of 116 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 44 of 86 51% 44 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joshua Van 103 of 287 35% 45 of 201 28 of 48 30 of 38 101 of 281 2 of 6 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 120 of 234 51% 78 of 179 29 of 41 13 of 14 106 of 217 14 of 17 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joshua Van 26 of 77 33% 10 of 54 10 of 14 6 of 9 25 of 75 1 of 2 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 25 of 48 52% 11 of 29 11 of 15 3 of 4 23 of 45 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Joshua Van 38 of 94 40% 23 of 72 7 of 14 8 of 8 38 of 92 0 of 2 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 51 of 100 51% 36 of 81 10 of 14 5 of 5 40 of 88 11 of 12 0 of 0
3 Joshua Van 39 of 116 33% 12 of 75 11 of 20 16 of 21 38 of 114 1 of 2 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 44 of 86 51% 31 of 69 8 of 12 5 of 5 43 of 84 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Joshua Van vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zhumagulov (-195), Van (+165)

Round 1
After multiple withdrawals and opponent changes, Zhumagulov (14-8, 1-5 UFC) finally finds himself with a dance partner. In the flyweight division, he will face off against UFC newcomer and Fury FC staple Van (7-1, 0-0 UFC), who lives in Texas but hails from Myanmar. The Kazakhstan-based Zhumagulov has a lifeline after losing three straight fights, but with multiple controversial decision defeats on his ledger, he comes up against a fighter in Van who has never before heard the final bell as a pro. This potentially fast-paced affair will be officiated by referee Andrew Glenn, and it begins with a glove touch. Zhumagulov pushes the pace and flicks out a jab, and Van snaps his head back and gets kicked low with a foot that slides up into his cup. Van adjusts his athletic supporter and does not pause, and Zhumagulov walks after him with a front kick and a few follow-up punches. They trade heavy kicks, and Zhumagulov gives chase with a looping right hand. Zhumagulov digs a left to the body and right to the head, and he hops forward with a left hook. Van counters with a short right, and the two get their jabs going. Zhumagulov slips a right hook, and he kicks the calf in response. Van attacks the body and gets jabbed for his effort, and he snaps one back to shake up Zhumagulov’s new haircut. Van follows a jab with a sharp right hand, and he digs a left straight to the midsection. Van intercepts an advancing Zhumagulov with a leg kick, and Zhumagulov swings his way into a body lock takedown. Van breaks away with a knee to the body, and he slides back as Zhumagulov aims strikes at his torso. Zhumagulov comes up just short on a winging left hook, and he plants a one-two on the side of the head. Van looks to make him pay with a similar combination, and Zhumagulov is right there in front of him throwing hammers. Zhumagulov dips down to sling a left, and he walks through an uppercut to crash through a single and deposit Van to the floor. Van jumps right back up, and Zhumagulov hits a quick mat return. Van once more is able to wall-walk upright again, and they separate and fire off jabs. Both men aim body kicks at the same time, and Zhumagulov misses with a three-punch salvo. The close frame ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zhumagulov
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Zhumagulov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zhumagulov

Round 2
The second round begins with the two trading quick strikes, and Zhumagulov starts off with multiple leg kicks. Van marches through them to push out jabs, and he surprises his foe with a one-two in the middle of Zhumagulov’s activity. Zhumagulov chips at him with jabs and leg kicks, and he gets stung with an overhand right but shakes it off. They clack their shins together with simultaneous kicks, and the jab from Van is starting to mark up his opponent. Van follows his jabs with right hands, and Zhumagulov swings back harder with inaccurate blows. The leg kicks from Zhumagulov are connecting, and Van backs him away and brushes his foe’s hair back with a blazing high kick. Van strides into a one-two, and he pushes out a front kick that Zhumagulov catches but not convert into a takedown. Zhumagulov loops a right hand around the guard, and Van whips a high kick at him that slams into the guard. Van duplicates the head kick and rocks Zhumagulov, and he proceeds to unload with a vicious salvo of punches that blasts into Zhumagulov. The Kazakh fighter toughs it out and counters well enough to keep Van honest, and he skirts away, still a little wobbled. Van does not recklessly chase, instead measuring with his jab and one-two, and Zhumagulov is more committed to single power punches. Zhumagulov telegraphs them as Van walks him down, he gets clipped behind the ear with a right hand. Van turns a front kick into a punch combination as Zhumagulov is trying to find his timing. Van eats a low kick, and he backpedals as Zhumagulov gives him the business with several kicks and a sharp uppercut. Zhumagulov wings a right hand that grazes the cheek and opens a cut, and he connects with a heavy leg kick. The two trade furious punches, and Van sends Zhumagulov staggering back. Zhumagulov spins with a back fist that smacks into Van’s chin, and he tries another that misses the mark. Van, seeing this, decides to spin with his own elbow, and the growingly exciting round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Van

Round 3
There is a quick glove touch before the two flyweights decide to get right back to action, and they trade punches in a fun exchange. Van leans back from a haymaker to stick out several jabs, and he catches Zhumagulov coming in with straight punches. Zhumagulov still manages to land with his sweeping hook, and Van drives him back with a jab. Van follows a jab with a right hook that shakes Zhumagulov up, but Zhumagulov bites down on his mouthpiece and leaps forward with a left hook. Van’s jab is money, as Zhumagulov spins with a failed back fist in response. Van gets off an oblique kick to change the stance briefly, but Zhumagulov gathers a full head of steam and kicks the lead leg in retaliation. Zhumagulov gets his bell rung with a short stream of punches, and Van is in the driver’s seat as he knocks Zhumagulov’s head around. Zhumagulov throws one or two, while Van strings several together generally. This volume is giving Zhumagulov fits, and Van opens up with a step-in elbow that leads to them closing the distance and bumping their heads together. Zhumagulov protests, and after a moment of confusion, they get back to it. Van keeps coming forward, and he absorbs and shrugs off a left hook to jump at the Kazakh fighter with a jump kick. Zhumagulov lashes out with a few punches, and Van jabs to break it up and throw back a hard right hand. Zhumagulov spins with a back fist, and Van times this to bust Zhumagulov’s nose up with a combination. Van continues to push the pace, flicking out jabs and not missing a beat. Zhumagulov throws back with impunity, missing several looping strikes and others graze off the intended target to little effect. Van times a jab into a huge right hand, and when it misses, he chambers and fires another shorter right that meets the mark. Zhumagulov spins recklessly, and he sinks in a left hand when he recovers. Van stuns his foe with a one-two, and he spins with a wheel kick that misses the hairline. With 15 seconds left in the fight, the two start brawling. Van lands heavy blows, Zhumagulov gives chase and spins several times, only to get popped with sharp punches as he does. The 21-year-old newcomer sticks his tongue out, and after another exchange, the striking battle wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)

The Official Result
Joshua Van def. Zhalgas Zhumagulov via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Angelo picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov, citing a giant skill gap. He notes Zhalgas has been screwed by judges but should bully the UFC newcomer Joshua Van with his wrestling and pressure. He mentions the line at -185 is expensive for a guy 1-4 in his last five but expects Zhalgas to blow through Van.

"he should absolutely blow through this kid that line is fine"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Big Brady picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov, believing he is the better fighter everywhere. He notes that Joshua Van is only 21 and coming into the UFC too soon, with poor takedown defense. He expects Zhumagulov to wrestle and control the fight, winning a decision. He acknowledges Zhumagulov's deceptive UFC record due to tough competition.

"give me a Zog assuming cool up to grind this one out and win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Cody picks Zhumagulov, noting his wrestling and grappling advantage. He thinks Van is too young and inexperienced, and that Zhumagulov's pressure will overwhelm him. He mentions the Paddy Pimblett haircut as a good luck charm.

"Zogos has the better skill set better skill set should win the fight."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Connor picks Zhumagulov as the far more experienced fighter who has proven in recent fights to be more willing to be crazy and aggressive. He notes that Joshua Van is super raw, only 21 with eight pro fights, and while he has a good foundation, he often gets surprised and doesn't get out of range quickly. Connor thinks Zhumagulov's athleticism and aggression will be too much for the young Van. He also mentions the caveat that Zhumagulov's head may not be in the right place, but against this level of competition, he still expects Zhumagulov to win.

"I obviously have to pick Jumagulov as the far more experienced fighter who has proven in his recent fights to be way more willing than ever before to be crazy and aggressive."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Joshua Van

Daniel Levi picks Joshua Van, citing his athleticism, killer instinct, and ability to create finishes. He thinks Zhumagulov is beatable, fights close, and fades. He acknowledges Van's greenness but believes he can bully Zhumagulov. He is taking a shot on the newcomer.

"I'm gonna go on a limit I'm gonna take the newcomer to come out here and upset a very beatable fighter in zagas"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

The host picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov to win by dominant decision. He believes Zhumagulov's experience and motivation will be key, and that he will keep the pressure on from the start, landing takedowns and controlling on the mat. He notes Van's lack of experience (only 2.5 years in MMA) and thinks the experience gap will be too much.

"give me Zuma gulov by dominant decision Victory here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Paul picks Zhumagulov, citing his experience and durability. He thinks Van is too green and that Zhumagulov's pressure and wrestling will be too much. He expects a clear win.

"This should be one-way traffic as far as I'm concerned."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

The Guru picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov, noting that Joshua Van relies on finishes and has only won by finish or been finished. He believes Zhumagulov is very difficult to finish, with only Manel Kape stopping him, and has experience against tough competition. He doubts Van can push a pace for three rounds in his debut, especially since Van was training for a fight in August and may not have ideal cardio.

"I'm gonna go with zalgasm agilov here Joshua van looked at him he's a good fighter young finisher... I just don't think he's gonna win"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Zhumagulov. He notes that Van is a low-output flyweight who is competent but not confident in taking the fight to opponents. Zane points out that if Van tries to have a kickboxing match, he won't match Zhumagulov's pace, and if Zhumagulov takes him down, Van may not be able to meaningfully respond. He also mentions the caveat that Zhumagulov's mentality has been getting worse, but he has been getting better as a fighter. Overall, Zane sees a huge experience gap and expects Zhumagulov to win.

"It just seems like a pretty obviously overwhelming experience golf between these two."
LOSS vs Charles Johnson
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Nov 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Johnson 0 115 of 209 55% 141 of 237 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:57
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 119 of 234 50% 141 of 258 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Johnson 0 32 of 60 53% 32 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 43 of 77 55% 46 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:21
2 Charles Johnson 0 33 of 56 58% 57 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 46 of 77 59% 65 of 98 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:42
3 Charles Johnson 0 50 of 93 53% 52 of 96 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 30 of 80 37% 30 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Johnson 115 of 209 55% 64 of 142 41 of 54 10 of 13 101 of 191 14 of 18 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 119 of 234 50% 36 of 119 34 of 62 49 of 53 112 of 225 6 of 8 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Johnson 32 of 60 53% 15 of 34 15 of 22 2 of 4 30 of 58 2 of 2 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 43 of 77 55% 10 of 35 15 of 23 18 of 19 40 of 74 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Charles Johnson 33 of 56 58% 13 of 30 15 of 20 5 of 6 26 of 45 7 of 11 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 46 of 77 59% 15 of 37 16 of 24 15 of 16 43 of 74 2 of 2 1 of 1
3 Charles Johnson 50 of 93 53% 36 of 78 11 of 12 3 of 3 45 of 88 5 of 5 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 30 of 80 37% 11 of 47 3 of 15 16 of 18 29 of 77 1 of 3 0 of 0
LOSS vs Jeff Molina
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jeff Molina 0 56 of 148 37% 129 of 226 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 37 of 112 33% 68 of 146 2 of 13 15% 0 0 5:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jeff Molina 0 14 of 35 40% 30 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 14 of 32 43% 22 of 40 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:16
2 Jeff Molina 0 13 of 33 39% 60 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 7 of 25 28% 20 of 40 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:37
3 Jeff Molina 0 29 of 80 36% 39 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 16 of 55 29% 26 of 66 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jeff Molina 56 of 148 37% 43 of 133 6 of 7 7 of 8 49 of 139 5 of 7 2 of 2
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 37 of 112 33% 10 of 74 17 of 26 10 of 12 28 of 103 9 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jeff Molina 14 of 35 40% 11 of 31 1 of 1 2 of 3 11 of 31 3 of 4 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 14 of 32 43% 4 of 21 5 of 5 5 of 6 8 of 26 6 of 6 0 of 0
2 Jeff Molina 13 of 33 39% 7 of 27 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 7 of 25 28% 3 of 18 3 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Jeff Molina 29 of 80 36% 25 of 75 2 of 3 2 of 2 25 of 75 2 of 3 2 of 2
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 16 of 55 29% 3 of 35 9 of 15 4 of 5 15 of 54 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jeff Molina

Angelo describes Jeff Molina as a good striker with volume and kicks, while Zhalgas Zhumagulov is tough with power and chain wrestling. He notes Molina has been taken down multiple times but still won those fights. He leans Molina but warns about Molina's kicks being caught, which could lead to a Zhumagulov decision win.

"i'm gonna lean molina here because even in two fights where he was taken down multiple times he was able to keep the pressure and control the striking to win those fights"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jeff Molina

Big Brady picks Jeff Molina to win by decision. He likes Molina's volume striking (over 8 significant strikes per minute) and well-rounded game, and thinks Molina will outwork Zhumagulov on the feet. He notes that Zhumagulov is a good fighter but has not had success with takedowns in the UFC, and even if he gets them down, Molina is good at getting back up. He expects the fight to stay standing and Molina's volume to be the difference.

Molina by decision
"I feel like molina has what it takes to win this by decision here so give me uh molina give me molina by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jeff Molina

Cody picks Molina but is uneasy, noting Molina's volume and potential but also his untested competition. He thinks Molina's future is bright but this fight could be competitive. He is not confident enough to bet heavily.

"i think molina is the rightful favorite here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jeff Molina

Daniel Levi leans toward Jeff Molina, citing his high volume and well-rounded skills. He acknowledges Zhumagulov's ability to make fights close and his experience, but believes Molina's output and takedown defense will be key. He will not lay -185, preferring to watch or take the dog.

"i'm gonna lean with molina here but i'm laying that price tag my man"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Paul picks Zhumagulov as an underdog, citing his experience against tougher competition. He notes Molina's hype may be premature and that Zhumagulov has faced better fighters. He thinks it will be a close decision and sees value in the dog.

"i'm going to put zuma gulab i think he's my underdog shot number two"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jeff Molina

The MMA Guru picks Jeff Molina to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He highlights Molina's height and reach advantage, good takedown defense, and improving skills. He expects Molina to win the first round via grappling, then pick up the pace on the feet in the last two rounds. He doesn't see Zhumagulov bullying Molina and thinks Molina will land kicks and punches at range.

"i'm going to go jeff molina 29-28 unanimous decision"
LOSS vs Manel Kape
TKO (punches) R1 4:02 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Manel Kape 2 53 of 72 73% 54 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 31 of 79 39% 31 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Manel Kape 2 53 of 72 73% 54 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 31 of 79 39% 31 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Manel Kape 53 of 72 73% 39 of 56 5 of 7 9 of 9 53 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 31 of 79 39% 19 of 61 6 of 11 6 of 7 31 of 78 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Manel Kape 53 of 72 73% 39 of 56 5 of 7 9 of 9 53 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 31 of 79 39% 19 of 61 6 of 11 6 of 7 31 of 78 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Manel Kape vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Round 1
When this flyweight fight ends, one of the two competitors between Kape (16-6, 1-2 UFC) and Zhumagulov (14-5, 1-2 UFC) will likely lift their UFC record to .500 and earn their second victory under the organization’s banner. In this classic battle of Angola vs. Kazakhstan, referee Keith Peterson may have his hands full overseeing what could be a fast-paced contest, but there will be no nonsense allowed while it takes place. Kape is amped up, and Peterson backs him off several times, and there is no sign of respect with a glove touch. Kape leaps out of his corner when the round begins in an attempt to beat Jorge Masvidal’s record, but Zhumagulov sees it come and pushes it away. Kape pops him with a right hand on the way out, but Zhumagulov is not fazed and pressures Kape with a few big punches. As Kape goes low with a kick, Zhumagulov tags him with an overhand right that knocks Kape back to the wall and draws a huge smile on his face. Zhumagulov does not get too aggressive, instead finding his range with an uppercut and a right hand. Zhumagulov trips, but he gathers himself before Kape can take advantage of it. The Kazakh marches Kape down, but he does not do so recklessly into a counter that Kape sets up in the form of a huge right hand. Zhumagulov steps forward with a knee, and he snaps a jab out that surprises Kape. They trade quick punches, and Zhumagulov follows up an exchange with a leg kick. When Kape lands with another kick to the calf, Zhumagulov jumps forward to drill him in the face. Zhumagulov checks one such kick, and he evades the leaping knee that soars at his chin. Kape tries to stick and move, only for Zhumagulov to follow him with a pair of punches that land flush. Zhumagulov swings a kick that collides into the thigh, and he rushes in with a punch salvo that Kape cannot escape in time. Kape lands with a left and a right, only for him to get countered on the way out. Kape continues to connect with leg kicks, and he sits down on a right hand that knocks Zhumagulov to his seat. Kape cannot keep Zhumagulov down, so when Zhumagulov stands, he busts him up with a few big right hands that send him careening to the wall.
Seeing he has his man hurt, Kape opens up with a brutal series of punches to the head and body and tees off on Zhumagulov. Zhumagulov tries to shell up and protect himself from the onslaught, but lightning-quick strikes get through and drop Zhumagulov down to the ground.
Peterson intervenes as soon as Zhumagulov slumps over, and Kape may very well have saved himself from a pink slip with an emphatic knockout over an opponent that had only been finished once in his career, back in 2015.

The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Zhalgas Zhumagulov R1 4:02 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Angelo picks Zhalgas, liking the odds at +190. He notes Zhalgas is a chain wrestler with relentless pressure, and Manel has a negative striking differential and makes IQ mistakes. Angelo thinks Zhalgas can win via takedowns or cage control, but is nervous about the line moving.

1 unit at +190 (considered but not yet placed)
"i like zalgas here i i like the odds are worrisome before i even saw the odds i just saw the match up and i was like well zalgas right that's easy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Big Brady picks Manel Kape to win by knockout. He believes Kape is the more skilled and well-rounded fighter, with better striking, wrestling, and BJJ. However, he expresses frustration with Kape's low volume, noting that if Kape would throw more, he could be a serious problem. He thinks Kape's 94% finish rate suggests he will finish Zhumagulov, who has been knocked out before. Brady is confident but not overly so due to Kape's tendency to underperform.

by knockout
"give me uh manel cop to win by knockout here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Cody agrees with Paul, not making a pick. He thinks Kape's price is too high given his low output and that Zhumagulov's volume could cause problems. Cody says he can't recommend betting Kape at -250.

"yep i agree with you on all fronts there"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Daniel Levi picks Manel Kape to knock out Zhalgas Zhumagulov. He believes Kape has ridiculous speed, movement, and punching power, and that Zhumagulov is small for the weight class and can be bullied. He notes that Zhumagulov is always on the back foot and that Kape can eat his best shots. He thinks Kape will finish him, possibly after working for it.

knockout
"I'm gonna go with manila cape to knock him out"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Jacob picks Zhalgas, placing a plus 3.5 round bet at -110. He notes Zhalgas is intelligent and will time takedowns, and Manel is overconfident and has decision losses. Jacob thinks Zhalgas will find a way to win, possibly by stealing rounds.

Plus 3.5 round bet on Zhalgas at -110
"i have a three and a half bet on him um you know if kate finds a way to uh you know pull out another win then maybe i'll i'll jump on his bandwagon"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Manel Kape

I lean Kape. He is the more talented striker with power and speed, but his output is a concern. Zhumagulov keeps a decent pace and is durable. I think Kape's power will be the difference, but the fight is likely to go the distance. I like the fight goes to decision prop at minus 165 and Kape by decision at plus 130.

Kape by decision +130, fight goes to decision -165
"i am leaning on the cop side here i'm not paying minus 260 at this point in time because again it could be a very very close fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick, expressing skepticism about Kape's -250 price. He notes Kape's low output and lack of urgency, and that Zhumagulov is a high-volume fighter who could make it close. Paul thinks the line is too high and that Kape might not finish, making it a risky bet.

"for minus 250 this is a walk in the park i don't necessarily think it's a walk in the park knocking out zogus good luck body good luck so you're gonna have to fight him for 15 minutes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2021 (fight day)
Manel Kape

The MMA Guru picks Manel Kape to win by third-round TKO via knee. He expects a slow first round with clinch work, then Kape's leg kicks and body knees will take effect. In the third, Zhumagulov will be compromised, and Kape will land a fight-ending knee in the clinch, similar to his fight against Matias Nicolau.

third round tko
"i'm going to go manila cap third round tko that's what i'm going to do"
WIN vs Jerome Rivera
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:02 · UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Jul 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 10 of 24 41% 10 of 24 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:12
Jerome Rivera 0 11 of 40 27% 11 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 10 of 24 41% 10 of 24 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:12
Jerome Rivera 0 11 of 40 27% 11 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 10 of 24 41% 4 of 15 4 of 6 2 of 3 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jerome Rivera 11 of 40 27% 2 of 27 7 of 10 2 of 3 11 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhalgas Zhumagulov 10 of 24 41% 4 of 15 4 of 6 2 of 3 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jerome Rivera 11 of 40 27% 2 of 27 7 of 10 2 of 3 11 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Angelo picks Zhumagulov, citing his toughness, power, and wrestling. He thinks Zhumagulov will close the distance, get takedowns, and dominate. He notes Rivera is not UFC-level yet and has lost three in a row. However, he warns against betting at -358 odds and suggests the under on rounds.

Under 2.5 rounds
"zalgas is my pick but uh like i mentioned i'm staying far away from it in draftkings"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Big Brady picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov to win by decision. He thinks Zhumagulov is the better fighter and can mix in takedowns. He notes Rivera has zero takedowns in the UFC and poor takedown accuracy. However, he is concerned about the height and reach disadvantages for Zhumagulov, and thinks the -358 line is too wide. He expects Zhumagulov to close the distance and get the job done, but not without difficulty.

"i'm going to say zagasumu gulab by decision but yeah the minus 358 just seems like a little bit way too wide for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Cody picks Zhumagulov, noting his experience and Rivera's poor UFC run. He thinks Zhumagulov's volume and takedowns will be too much. He expects a decision win but also likes the KO prop at +450.

Zhalgas by KO at +450
"zalgus by decision i think that's like everyone's gonna pick azalgus by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Daniel Levi picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov. He acknowledges that Zhumagulov has not been impressive and is a small flyweight, but believes he has beaten better competition on the regional scene. He criticizes Jerome Rivera for being timid and lacking confidence, despite having physical advantages. He thinks Zhumagulov will outpoint Rivera to a unanimous decision. He cannot back Rivera to win any UFC fight.

"i see zagat zuma gula out pointing him to a to a probably unanimous decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Jerome Rivera

Jacob picks Rivera as an underdog, citing his length and submission threat. He notes Rivera's losses are to top competition and he believes Rivera can keep distance and find a submission. He thinks the -358 on Zhumagulov is too high and likes the plus money on Rivera.

Rivera by submission
"i actually like jerome in in this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

I'm picking Zhumagulov to win, but I'm not confident. He is a point fighter with low finishing ability, and Rivera is a volume striker who could make it close. Rivera has value as a dog, especially by decision. I think Zhumagulov wins a close decision, but I wouldn't parlay him. The over 2.5 rounds is a better bet.

Rivera by decision (+560), over 2.5 rounds
"my pick ultimately is going to be zuma gulov but please don't go out there like parlaying him in all these tickets"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Paul picks Zhumagulov, noting Rivera's poor record and chin issues. He thinks Zhumagulov's experience and durability will prevail. He expects a decision win.

"i think zogus does get the job done this could be the end of the road for jerome rivera"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2021 (fight day)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

The Guru picks Zhumagulov by 30-27 unanimous decision. He expects both fighters to trade on the feet in the first half of each round, with Rivera possibly having a range advantage. But Zhumagulov will stay patient, then walk Rivera down and take him down against the cage in the second half of each round, landing ground and pound. The Guru compares the takedown style to Alvarez-Poirier. He sees Zhumagulov winning every round with dominant top control.

"zalgasa magulov is going to get this one done as well ... i'll give it a 30 27 to zalgasa magulov"
LOSS vs Amir Albazi
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 · Jan 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amir Albazi 0 68 of 169 40% 94 of 200 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:38
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 59 of 132 44% 74 of 150 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amir Albazi 0 14 of 58 24% 25 of 72 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:30
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 23 of 39 58% 29 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
2 Amir Albazi 0 31 of 69 44% 32 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 25 of 56 44% 25 of 56 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Amir Albazi 0 23 of 42 54% 37 of 58 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:58
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 11 of 37 29% 20 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amir Albazi 68 of 169 40% 40 of 128 15 of 24 13 of 17 64 of 163 2 of 3 2 of 3
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 59 of 132 44% 22 of 84 31 of 41 6 of 7 58 of 128 1 of 2 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amir Albazi 14 of 58 24% 6 of 45 4 of 6 4 of 7 14 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 23 of 39 58% 9 of 24 12 of 13 2 of 2 23 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 2
2 Amir Albazi 31 of 69 44% 19 of 51 5 of 10 7 of 8 30 of 68 1 of 1 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 25 of 56 44% 9 of 34 13 of 18 3 of 4 25 of 55 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Amir Albazi 23 of 42 54% 15 of 32 6 of 8 2 of 2 20 of 37 1 of 2 2 of 3
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 11 of 37 29% 4 of 26 6 of 10 1 of 1 10 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Big Brady picks Amir Albazi as an underdog, citing his decent striking and good ground game. He notes Albazi submitted Malcolm Gordon in his UFC debut. He expects a close fight and thinks Albazi will edge it out with takedowns. He is hesitant because Zhumagulov's fights are often close and he could have won his last fight.

"i'm going to go with the underdog here i'm going to go with albazi"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Daniel Levi picks Amir Albazi, citing his aggression and forward pressure. He notes Zhumagulov gets bullied and has questionable wins. Levi believes Albazi is the more talented fighter and will win by being more aggressive, though he acknowledges it could be a toss-up.

"i'm going with amir al bazi i just think he projects to go higher i think he's the more talented guy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Albazi is the younger, improving fighter with a strong grappling game. He has shown he can get the fight to the ground and has good jiu-jitsu, as seen in his submission win over Malcolm Gordon. Zhumagulov is primarily a striker who doesn't have great takedown defense and tends to lose early rounds. In a three-round fight, Albazi only needs to win the first two rounds by securing takedowns and controlling top position. I expect Albazi to win via decision.

"I'll go with Amir Albazi to win this fight via decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

The MMA Guru picks Amir Albazi to win by submission in the first round, but later also mentions a close decision. He notes Albazi is younger, stronger, and more explosive, while Zhumagulov is slowing down. He references Albazi's impressive UFC debut submission and his grappling skills. He believes Zhumagulov's grinding style is not respected by judges, and Albazi's power and takedowns will be key. He also mentions betting on Albazi as an underdog.

Underdog bet, submission in first round or 29-28 decision
"i'm going to go with amir al bazi here by submission in the first round bigger guy stronger guy more explosive younger as well"
LOSS vs Raulian Paiva
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Jul 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raulian Paiva 0 52 of 121 42% 56 of 125 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 66 of 119 55% 73 of 126 2 of 11 18% 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raulian Paiva 0 21 of 47 44% 21 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 19 of 41 46% 19 of 41 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:12
2 Raulian Paiva 0 16 of 40 40% 19 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 27 of 44 61% 32 of 49 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:08
3 Raulian Paiva 0 15 of 34 44% 16 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 20 of 34 58% 22 of 36 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raulian Paiva 52 of 121 42% 14 of 71 22 of 31 16 of 19 51 of 119 1 of 2 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 66 of 119 55% 19 of 61 17 of 25 30 of 33 64 of 115 1 of 2 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raulian Paiva 21 of 47 44% 6 of 30 8 of 9 7 of 8 21 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 19 of 41 46% 5 of 25 6 of 6 8 of 10 19 of 40 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Raulian Paiva 16 of 40 40% 5 of 23 7 of 11 4 of 6 16 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 27 of 44 61% 7 of 20 9 of 13 11 of 11 25 of 41 1 of 1 1 of 2
3 Raulian Paiva 15 of 34 44% 3 of 18 7 of 11 5 of 5 14 of 32 1 of 2 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 20 of 34 58% 7 of 16 2 of 6 11 of 12 20 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Raulian Paiva

Big Brady picks Raulian Paiva by decision, noting he was not impressed with Zhumagulov's tape against lower competition. He believes Paiva is the better overall striker and will outpoint him, though he may not bet at -185.

"i just think paiva is the better overall striker and uh and yeah so i'm going to go pivot i think it's going to win a decision here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Raulian Paiva

Daniel Levi is very high on Raulian Paiva, calling him one of his favorite flyweight prospects. He praises Paiva's length, forward pressure, volume, and durability, noting he can take shots and has a good chin. He criticizes Zhumagulov as small for 125, easily bullied, and having a watered-down Russian style. Levi believes Paiva will push him back and dominate, possibly finishing him.

"I'm going with my top prospect which is Holly and Paiva I think he beats this kid up"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Raulian Paiva

Paiva has impressive length and striking, especially his kicking, which should give Zhumagulov issues closing the distance. Paiva is slowly coming into his own and has a win over a high-level fighter in earlier Santos. Expects Paiva to pick him apart on the feet and win by decision.

"I like Paiva's length and is striking here his kicking is very very impressive too"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)

The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.

Jerome Rivera - Fight History
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:02 · UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Jul 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 10 of 24 41% 10 of 24 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:12
Jerome Rivera 0 11 of 40 27% 11 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 10 of 24 41% 10 of 24 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:12
Jerome Rivera 0 11 of 40 27% 11 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 10 of 24 41% 4 of 15 4 of 6 2 of 3 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jerome Rivera 11 of 40 27% 2 of 27 7 of 10 2 of 3 11 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhalgas Zhumagulov 10 of 24 41% 4 of 15 4 of 6 2 of 3 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jerome Rivera 11 of 40 27% 2 of 27 7 of 10 2 of 3 11 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Angelo picks Zhumagulov, citing his toughness, power, and wrestling. He thinks Zhumagulov will close the distance, get takedowns, and dominate. He notes Rivera is not UFC-level yet and has lost three in a row. However, he warns against betting at -358 odds and suggests the under on rounds.

Under 2.5 rounds
"zalgas is my pick but uh like i mentioned i'm staying far away from it in draftkings"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Big Brady picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov to win by decision. He thinks Zhumagulov is the better fighter and can mix in takedowns. He notes Rivera has zero takedowns in the UFC and poor takedown accuracy. However, he is concerned about the height and reach disadvantages for Zhumagulov, and thinks the -358 line is too wide. He expects Zhumagulov to close the distance and get the job done, but not without difficulty.

"i'm going to say zagasumu gulab by decision but yeah the minus 358 just seems like a little bit way too wide for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Cody picks Zhumagulov, noting his experience and Rivera's poor UFC run. He thinks Zhumagulov's volume and takedowns will be too much. He expects a decision win but also likes the KO prop at +450.

Zhalgas by KO at +450
"zalgus by decision i think that's like everyone's gonna pick azalgus by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Daniel Levi picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov. He acknowledges that Zhumagulov has not been impressive and is a small flyweight, but believes he has beaten better competition on the regional scene. He criticizes Jerome Rivera for being timid and lacking confidence, despite having physical advantages. He thinks Zhumagulov will outpoint Rivera to a unanimous decision. He cannot back Rivera to win any UFC fight.

"i see zagat zuma gula out pointing him to a to a probably unanimous decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Jerome Rivera

Jacob picks Rivera as an underdog, citing his length and submission threat. He notes Rivera's losses are to top competition and he believes Rivera can keep distance and find a submission. He thinks the -358 on Zhumagulov is too high and likes the plus money on Rivera.

Rivera by submission
"i actually like jerome in in this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

I'm picking Zhumagulov to win, but I'm not confident. He is a point fighter with low finishing ability, and Rivera is a volume striker who could make it close. Rivera has value as a dog, especially by decision. I think Zhumagulov wins a close decision, but I wouldn't parlay him. The over 2.5 rounds is a better bet.

Rivera by decision (+560), over 2.5 rounds
"my pick ultimately is going to be zuma gulov but please don't go out there like parlaying him in all these tickets"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Paul picks Zhumagulov, noting Rivera's poor record and chin issues. He thinks Zhumagulov's experience and durability will prevail. He expects a decision win.

"i think zogus does get the job done this could be the end of the road for jerome rivera"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2021 (fight day)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

The Guru picks Zhumagulov by 30-27 unanimous decision. He expects both fighters to trade on the feet in the first half of each round, with Rivera possibly having a range advantage. But Zhumagulov will stay patient, then walk Rivera down and take him down against the cage in the second half of each round, landing ground and pound. The Guru compares the takedown style to Alvarez-Poirier. He sees Zhumagulov winning every round with dominant top control.

"zalgasa magulov is going to get this one done as well ... i'll give it a 30 27 to zalgasa magulov"
LOSS vs Ode' Osbourne
KO (punches) R1 0:26 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · Feb 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ode' Osbourne 1 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Jerome Rivera 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ode' Osbourne 1 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Jerome Rivera 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ode' Osbourne 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 5
Jerome Rivera 2 of 3 66% 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ode' Osbourne 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 5
Jerome Rivera 2 of 3 66% 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Jerome Rivera

Big Brady picks Jerome Rivera, citing his legit wrestling and ground game, and expects him to get takedowns and control the fight. He notes that Ode' Osbourne is a threat off his back with submissions, but believes Rivera's top game will prevail. He predicts a decision win, possibly a submission, but is wary of Osbourne's submission threat.

"I'm gonna go with Bondar here because I do think the takedowns are going to be coming from his side... I'm gonna say Bondar by submission."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Daniel Levi picks Ode' Osbourne confidently, comparing his style to Yuri Alcantara. He notes Rivera's lack of takedowns (0 in three UFC fights) and believes Osbourne's athleticism and striking will be too much. He expects a finish or clear decision.

"i'm going all day osborne shaq"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Jerome Rivera

Rivera has good wrestling and submission skills, and Osbourne has shown poor takedown defense and cardio issues. Osbourne has only been to the second round once, so his gas tank is unknown. Rivera should be able to take Osbourne down and control him. I expect Rivera to win by submission in the second round.

Rivera by submission; second round submission
"i like uh i like uh bon derek here he could possibly pull off the submission as well too i'll go with second round submission for bonder"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Jerome Rivera

The MMA Guru picks Dennis Bondar (Jerome Rivera) over Ode' Osbourne, citing Bondar's calmness in bad positions and scrambling ability. He expects Osbourne to throw wild shots early, which Bondar will counter with takedowns. He predicts a submission win via arm triangle in the second round after Osbourne gasses.

submission in the second round via arm triangle
"i'm gonna go with dennis bondar getting the job done stepping up he's a very good fighter"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Chiesa vs. Magny · Jan 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Francisco Figueiredo 0 29 of 53 54% 39 of 65 4 of 6 66% 0 0 7:07
Jerome Rivera 0 31 of 134 23% 85 of 199 0 of 5 0% 0 1 1:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Francisco Figueiredo 0 8 of 17 47% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:21
Jerome Rivera 0 12 of 35 34% 29 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:10
2 Francisco Figueiredo 0 13 of 18 72% 15 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:49
Jerome Rivera 0 5 of 33 15% 22 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
3 Francisco Figueiredo 0 8 of 18 44% 8 of 18 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:57
Jerome Rivera 0 14 of 66 21% 34 of 89 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Francisco Figueiredo 29 of 53 54% 11 of 28 7 of 11 11 of 14 20 of 40 4 of 4 5 of 9
Jerome Rivera 31 of 134 23% 12 of 90 8 of 20 11 of 24 22 of 112 9 of 22 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Francisco Figueiredo 8 of 17 47% 3 of 7 3 of 6 2 of 4 5 of 12 2 of 2 1 of 3
Jerome Rivera 12 of 35 34% 1 of 16 5 of 9 6 of 10 8 of 29 4 of 6 0 of 0
2 Francisco Figueiredo 13 of 18 72% 5 of 9 2 of 3 6 of 6 9 of 12 0 of 0 4 of 6
Jerome Rivera 5 of 33 15% 3 of 22 0 of 4 2 of 7 4 of 29 1 of 4 0 of 0
3 Francisco Figueiredo 8 of 18 44% 3 of 12 2 of 2 3 of 4 6 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jerome Rivera 14 of 66 21% 8 of 52 3 of 7 3 of 7 10 of 54 4 of 12 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jerome Rivera

Big Brady admits he could find very little tape on Francisco Figueiredo and what he saw was unimpressive, with poor striking defense and ground game. He thinks the -150 line is based on the name rather than skill. He picks Jerome Rivera, who has a good ground game and submission skills, but is not confident because he knows little about Figueiredo. He predicts a decision win for Rivera.

Rivera by decision; not confident
"i'm gonna take the underdog here in jerome rivera not all the confident"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jerome Rivera

The host picks Jerome Rivera due to his activity, height advantage, and jiu-jitsu, but is hesitant because of limited tape on Francisco Figueiredo. He thinks Rivera can overwhelm Figueiredo with volume and movement, but acknowledges the unknown factor of Figueiredo's game. He predicts a decision win for Rivera.

"i will pick jerome to win i do think he gets it done via decision but i wouldn't be surprised if we see some wrinkles from figueretto's game"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Jerome Rivera

The MMA Guru picks Jerome Rivera as an underdog, criticizing Francisco Figueiredo's performance in his last fight (a controversial draw against Eduardo Souza) and his reliance on his brother's name. He notes Rivera was beating Tyson Nam before getting caught, and has good takedown defense and offensive grappling. He predicts Rivera will pick Figueiredo apart on the outside and win a unanimous decision 30-27.

unanimous decision 30-27
"i'm gonna definitely pick jerome rivera here in an upset against francisco figuerado"
LOSS vs Tyson Nam
TKO (punches) R2 0:34 · UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · Sep 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyson Nam 1 36 of 72 50% 36 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Jerome Rivera 0 30 of 80 37% 31 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyson Nam 0 20 of 48 41% 20 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Jerome Rivera 0 28 of 76 36% 29 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tyson Nam 1 16 of 24 66% 16 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Jerome Rivera 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyson Nam 36 of 72 50% 27 of 58 7 of 12 2 of 2 18 of 47 3 of 3 15 of 22
Jerome Rivera 30 of 80 37% 9 of 45 2 of 11 19 of 24 29 of 79 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyson Nam 20 of 48 41% 11 of 34 7 of 12 2 of 2 17 of 45 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jerome Rivera 28 of 76 36% 9 of 43 1 of 10 18 of 23 27 of 75 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Tyson Nam 16 of 24 66% 16 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 15 of 22
Jerome Rivera 2 of 4 50% 0 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Tyson Nam

Big Brady picks Tyson Nam because he believes Nam's power will catch Rivera, who leaves openings on defense. He notes Rivera wants to take the fight to the ground but isn't great at getting it there, and Nam hits very hard. He predicts a first-round knockout, though he admits it's hard to bet on Nam due to low volume.

Nam inside the distance, Nam by knockout
"i do think mom's going to catch up maybe take a look at the nom inside the distance prop the num knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 18, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Jerome Rivera

The host believes Jerome Rivera will be more active and offensive, using takedowns and cage work to outwork Tyson Nam. He notes Nam is a low-output fighter who relies on knockouts and rarely wins decisions, while Rivera has a solid chin and good movement. He expects Rivera to win by decision, as Nam is unlikely to finish him and will lose if he doesn't get a knockout.

Jerome Rivera by decision +305; Tyson Nam inside distance +125
"I truly think that this is Jerome Rivera's fight to win and I think he is going to win it."
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Angelo picks Zhumagulov, citing his toughness, power, and wrestling. He thinks Zhumagulov will close the distance, get takedowns, and dominate. He notes Rivera is not UFC-level yet and has lost three in a row. However, he warns against betting at -358 odds and suggests the under on rounds.

Under 2.5 rounds
"zalgas is my pick but uh like i mentioned i'm staying far away from it in draftkings"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Big Brady picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov to win by decision. He thinks Zhumagulov is the better fighter and can mix in takedowns. He notes Rivera has zero takedowns in the UFC and poor takedown accuracy. However, he is concerned about the height and reach disadvantages for Zhumagulov, and thinks the -358 line is too wide. He expects Zhumagulov to close the distance and get the job done, but not without difficulty.

"i'm going to say zagasumu gulab by decision but yeah the minus 358 just seems like a little bit way too wide for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Cody picks Zhumagulov, noting his experience and Rivera's poor UFC run. He thinks Zhumagulov's volume and takedowns will be too much. He expects a decision win but also likes the KO prop at +450.

Zhalgas by KO at +450
"zalgus by decision i think that's like everyone's gonna pick azalgus by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Daniel Levi picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov. He acknowledges that Zhumagulov has not been impressive and is a small flyweight, but believes he has beaten better competition on the regional scene. He criticizes Jerome Rivera for being timid and lacking confidence, despite having physical advantages. He thinks Zhumagulov will outpoint Rivera to a unanimous decision. He cannot back Rivera to win any UFC fight.

"i see zagat zuma gula out pointing him to a to a probably unanimous decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Jerome Rivera

Jacob picks Rivera as an underdog, citing his length and submission threat. He notes Rivera's losses are to top competition and he believes Rivera can keep distance and find a submission. He thinks the -358 on Zhumagulov is too high and likes the plus money on Rivera.

Rivera by submission
"i actually like jerome in in this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

I'm picking Zhumagulov to win, but I'm not confident. He is a point fighter with low finishing ability, and Rivera is a volume striker who could make it close. Rivera has value as a dog, especially by decision. I think Zhumagulov wins a close decision, but I wouldn't parlay him. The over 2.5 rounds is a better bet.

Rivera by decision (+560), over 2.5 rounds
"my pick ultimately is going to be zuma gulov but please don't go out there like parlaying him in all these tickets"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Paul picks Zhumagulov, noting Rivera's poor record and chin issues. He thinks Zhumagulov's experience and durability will prevail. He expects a decision win.

"i think zogus does get the job done this could be the end of the road for jerome rivera"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2021 (fight day)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

The Guru picks Zhumagulov by 30-27 unanimous decision. He expects both fighters to trade on the feet in the first half of each round, with Rivera possibly having a range advantage. But Zhumagulov will stay patient, then walk Rivera down and take him down against the cage in the second half of each round, landing ground and pound. The Guru compares the takedown style to Alvarez-Poirier. He sees Zhumagulov winning every round with dominant top control.

"zalgasa magulov is going to get this one done as well ... i'll give it a 30 27 to zalgasa magulov"