Career Averages - Steve Garcia
Career Averages - Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
Steve Garcia
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
Steve Garcia - Fight History
AJ is leaning towards Steve Garcia, citing Garcia's terrifying hands and cardio to go three hard rounds. He thinks Garcia could outstrike Lopes and notes that Lopes is not a grapple smotherer, making it hard for him to control Garcia. He also mentions Garcia's chin and finishing ability.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Garcia | 1 | 33 of 62 | 53% | 43 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| David Onama | 0 | 2 of 16 | 12% | 2 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Garcia | 1 | 33 of 62 | 53% | 43 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| David Onama | 0 | 2 of 16 | 12% | 2 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Garcia | 33 of 62 | 53% | 28 of 56 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 52 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 |
| David Onama | 2 of 16 | 12% | 1 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Garcia | 33 of 62 | 53% | 28 of 56 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 52 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 |
| David Onama | 2 of 16 | 12% | 1 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-130); Onama (+110)
Round 1
It’s time for the main event, a ranked featherweight five-rounder that should be a banger. After what has happened so far tonight, one can hope that Herb Dean can keep things legitimate because there have been some
serious
questions of integrity tonight. Garcia (18-5, 7-2 UFC) and Onama (14-2, 6-2 UFC) are about to let their hands go, and before they do, Dean brings them to the center of the cage to issue final instructions. Will they follow them? Who the heck knows.
The main event opens with a fist bump from the athletes. The featherweights are jittery and trying to figure things out early, so Garcia breaks that silence about 15 seconds in with a clubbing right hand. He walks Onama down, peppering him with his jab and follow-up left hook. Onama bounces off the fence, so Garcia chases him down with a bouquet of blistering left hands. Garcia mixes up body shots, and he snaps out a jab to intercept a front kick. Garcia reaches out with a left hook, shaking Onama up, and he continues to chain together his lefts. Onama fires back when he back, but Garcia’s volume and looping lefts are getting Onama’s attention time and time again.
Garcia steps in behind a left hand, and Onama is tough but quickly becoming a heavy bag. Garcia beats his man to the punch with a combo featuring his left, and when Onama bounces back up, Garcia comes right after him. “Mean Machine” does not let Onama off the hook, blasting him with a number of left hands that knock him from one side of the cage to another. Garcia lets fly a head kick as well, and he continues to rush at “Silent Assassin” with a barrage of brutal lefts. Onama fires back and shreds open a cut on Garcia’s eyebrow, but Garcia is a man on a mission and wants to finish the job.
Garcia’s offense wilts Onama, bending him over with a liver kick. He sees his opening to put the Factory X fighter away and takes it, swarming him with punches that topple Onama to the floor. From there, Garcia keeps pounding away as Onama turtles up, and only a few hammerfists are needed for “Mean Machine” to seal the deal.
Onama protests when Dean calls a halt to the match, but he soon realizes that he will not be convincing anyone after his performance. This was one-way traffic for the Jackson-Wink fighter, who prevails in under four minutes and punches his ticket to greater things coming soon. While the triumphant man calls out Max Holloway for the BMF belt, he may have to look elsewhere to climb the ladder before getting there. When he does compete next, however, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. David Onama R1 3:34 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Steve Garcia, citing his awkward, lurching movement and sheer size for the weight class as problematic for David Onama. He notes Garcia's power and forward pressure, but acknowledges Onama is faster and more technical. He mentions Garcia has been knocked out before, while Onama hasn't, but doesn't see Onama knocking him out. He calls it a close competitive fight and leans Garcia.
Big Brady leans toward David Onama, citing Steve Garcia's tendency to leave openings and get dropped, as seen in fights against Charlie Ontiveros and Maheshate. He acknowledges Garcia hits hard and is all violence, but believes Onama is more durable and can take advantage. He predicts a second-round knockout for Onama.
Connor picks Onama, reasoning that Garcia's losses are worse than Onama's, with more randomness. He notes that Onama has lost to wild brawlers like Nate Landwehr and Mason Jones, which could be Steve Garcia, but those were exhausting fights. He thinks Onama may find success with wrestling and is a better athlete than Garcia's recent opponents.
Lucrative James picks David Onama to win by knockout, but he is not confident. He notes that both fighters have questionable chins and get hurt often, but Onama has never been finished while Garcia has been knocked out before. He also mentions Onama's superior training partners, including Justin Gaethje, and his wrestling upside as potential advantages. However, he emphasizes that this is a pick'em fight and he will not bet the moneyline, instead looking at under props.
The fight is a coin flip; whoever lands the big punch first wins. The host leans slightly to Onama's speed and more tools, thinking he will land a big shot and put Garcia away. But it could easily go the other way, so confidence is low.
The MMA Guru picks Steve Garcia, citing his recent impressive wins over Melquizael Costa, Kyle Nelson, and Calvin Kattar. He believes Garcia's pressure and volume will break David Onama, who has struggled against similar styles (e.g., Romero). He notes Onama's lack of consistent finishes and potential work ethic issues. He predicts a second or third round TKO.
Zane picks Garcia because he has seen Onama get hurt badly and fail to focus from the start. He notes that if Garcia can't knock Onama out, it will be a wild war, but he is more willing to believe Onama will never find comfort against Garcia than that Onama can lock Garcia down. He acknowledges the high chaos and randomness in both fighters' careers.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 26 of 123 | 21% | 26 of 123 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Steve Garcia | 1 | 85 of 250 | 34% | 85 of 250 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Calvin Kattar | 0 | 8 of 26 | 30% | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Steve Garcia | 0 | 22 of 71 | 30% | 22 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Calvin Kattar | 0 | 5 of 47 | 10% | 5 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Steve Garcia | 0 | 32 of 87 | 36% | 32 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Calvin Kattar | 0 | 13 of 50 | 26% | 13 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Steve Garcia | 1 | 31 of 92 | 33% | 31 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Kattar | 26 of 123 | 21% | 21 of 116 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 26 of 123 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Garcia | 85 of 250 | 34% | 52 of 208 | 23 of 29 | 10 of 13 | 85 of 249 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Calvin Kattar | 8 of 26 | 30% | 4 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Garcia | 22 of 71 | 30% | 11 of 53 | 5 of 10 | 6 of 8 | 22 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Calvin Kattar | 5 of 47 | 10% | 5 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Garcia | 32 of 87 | 36% | 19 of 72 | 10 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 32 of 87 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Calvin Kattar | 13 of 50 | 26% | 12 of 47 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Garcia | 31 of 92 | 33% | 22 of 83 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-120); Kattar (+100)
Round 1
On a career-long four-fight skid, Kattar (23-9, 7-7 UFC) has not gotten his hand raised since outdueling Giga Chikadze in 2022. Possibly in the later stages of his career at 37 years old, he is being matched up against a dangerous brawler in Garcia (17-5, 6-2 UFC) who is knocking on the door of ludicrous status should he clock “The Boston Finisher.” Referee Jason Herzog understands his assignment, and the fighters do too, as they touch gloves to engage.
The two featherweight strikers measure one another in the early going, with Garcia eventually leading the dance with a looping pair of punches and some awkward kicks to any target he can find. Kattar ducks and swings hard on an overhand right counter that zips right past the Jackson-Wink representative. Garcia is in the driver’s seat but his connect rate remains low a minute in. Garcia wraps a right around the guard, but his left goes wide. Woots, whoops and cries rain down throughout the Bridgestone Arena, and Garcia silences them with a long punch combination and three head kicks in a row. Kattar defends well but stumbles, and he gets back to his feet and takes a left hand on the jaw. Garcia scores with a left hand and kicks after it.
Katter misses with a huge left hand, and Garcia races through it and lands a combination on Kattar’s face. Kattar is stuck not hitting anything of note, while Garcia is scoring to the head, body and legs. Garcia spins with a sudden wheel kick, and Kattar shells up but his nose takes the brunt of it. Kattar steps in with an elbow on the chin after Garcia hits him a few times, and he partially connects with a lead hook. Garcia forces Kattar to constantly defend himself, and his power drives “The Boston Finisher” back a few steps. Kattar starts to put his jab together, and he is answered with a Jackson-Wink-style oblique kick to the knee. One more kick to the lead leg ends the tepid round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Round 2
Both featherweights trade right hands as the round begins, and Garcia stays in Kattar’s face but walks into a left hand on the jaw. Garcia shrugs it off and bounces around before settling down, planting a one-two on Kattar’s visage. Kattar’s looping punches continue to miss, as he is telegraphing his big right and Garcia is able to dodge or stay away from them. Garcia walks Kattar down, spinning with a clean back kick to the ribs, and he drives home several rib-roasters as well. This fires up Kattar, who cracks the favorite. Garcia gives it right back, happy to be getting the brawl he was seeking. Garcia beats Kattar to the jab time and time again.
Kattar employs a step-in elbow that graces Garcia’s melon, and Garcia gives him back several body shots to think about. Garcia dips and dodges the oncoming fire to crack Kattar with a huge left, smashing Kattar’s nose and forcing Kattar to paw at it. Garcia strikes the body when he sees an opening, and he skips forward to deliver two lefts on the chin. Garcia misses a right and left hook by a matter of inches, and he kicks the front of Kattar’s thigh to back him off. The body work from Garcia is getting Kattar to drop his hands, and he winds up with a bomb of a left that buzzes past the longtime vet. Garcia keeps doing work until the bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Round 3
Garcia immediately engages to start the last round, putting hands in Kattar’s face early and often. A heavy left hand drives Kattar back a ways, and he times a head kick and a spinning back fist that Garcia is able to defend. Kattar hops back and forth switching stances, but he does not engage and is just backpedaling when Garcia comes at him. Garcia reaches him with a left hand, and he loads up a subsequent bomb that nearly separates Kattar from his senses. Kattar bounces off the fence to stay afloat, and he clinches Garcia to get his head right. Garcia breaks off and chases the wounded man down, stabbing body kicks and following with liver punches that draw reactions almost every time he connects. Garcia fearlessly walks “The Boston Finisher” down, hurling one-twos and any open strike he can lob. Garcia tries for two clubbing lefts that do not get through, and he parries a front kick and pushes a left hand down the pipe.
Kattar appears to have recovered, but Garcia is not about to let him of the hook and hacks at him with a tomahawk elbow. Garcia kicks Kattar’s leg out, and he lets him back up to swing heavy leather. Kattar bites down on his mouthpiece and walks into a left hand, and he spins with an elbow that bangs square into Garcia’s temple. Garcia, blood now streaking from the bridge of his nose, boots Kattar upside the head and follows him with a left hand. He pushes Kattar back and pops him with a front kick, staying up close and looping lefts. Kattar stands him up with a right hand, and he strikes with a knee and a spinning back fist that both get part of the betting favorite. Garcia tosses windmills, and he waits for Kattar to spin so he can blast him when he plants. Garcia lets loose with a head kick and a spinning wheel kick, and Kattar knocks him back with a fierce overhand right. The two trade last strikes until time expires, and Garcia’s knockout streak has officially ended. Despite that, he still has soundly beaten a legitimate force at featherweight, and has announced himself as a new contender.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Calvin Kattar via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Steve Garcia but was initially not confident at higher odds. He notes Calvin Kattar is still a good striker with good takedown defense, but hasn't won in three years and is 37. At even money, he thinks Garcia is a decent play because he's younger and on a knockout streak, but he acknowledges Kattar has never been knocked out.
Big Brady is a fan of Steve Garcia but picks Calvin Kattar due to durability. He notes Garcia has been dropped multiple times, while Kattar has never been knocked out in over 30 fights. He expects a stand-up war and believes Kattar will finish what Charlie Ontiveros started, picking Kattar by first-round knockout.
Connor picks Kattar despite his losing streak, reasoning that Kattar has fought only elite fighters and has an incredible chin that has never been cracked. He views Steve Garcia as a 'bad fighter' who closes his eyes and swings wildly, and believes Kattar's durability and experience will carry him. Connor admits he is tired of being wrong about Garcia but trusts the pattern of Kattar losing only to top-tier opponents.
The host acknowledges recency bias making Garcia a slight favorite, but notes that Kattar has never been finished by knockout (except an injury). He believes this is a perfect stylistic matchup for Kattar to counter Garcia effectively and find a knockout, reminding people of his quality. The pick is based on Kattar's durability and counter-striking.
The MMA Guru picks Steve Garcia, citing his recent finishes (Chase Hooper, Shalan Nerd Beck) and his pressure style. He criticizes Calvin Kattar's recent performances, noting poor footwork and takedown defense since his leg injury. He expects Garcia to get in Kattar's face immediately, mix in wrestling, and finish him, though he acknowledges Kattar could win if he finds his rhythm late.
Zane picks Garcia, partly to avoid being mocked by a friend named Eddie for always picking against Garcia. He acknowledges that Garcia is a wild, unhinged fighter who frequently gets into trouble but has been winning. Zane notes that Kattar has slowed down and lost venom, and that Garcia's aggressive blitz could overwhelm him, similar to how Arnold Allen attacked Kattar. However, he admits Garcia is not a good technical fighter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Garcia | 0 | 22 of 37 | 59% | 39 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:36 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 31 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Garcia | 0 | 22 of 37 | 59% | 39 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:36 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 31 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Garcia | 22 of 37 | 59% | 20 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 34 |
| Kyle Nelson | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Garcia | 22 of 37 | 59% | 20 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 34 |
| Kyle Nelson | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-192), Nelson (+160)
Round 1
Garcia (16-5, 5-2 UFC) is hungry, and he wants to share his lunch of knuckle sandwiches as the short-notice substitute against Nelson (16-5-1, 4-4-1 UFC). Both men come into this pairing on win streaks, so someone’s momentum is about to come to a grinding halt. Garcia has notably recorded four straight knockouts, a rarity for the weight class. This bout will officially take place at 149 pounds due to the Canadian missing weight, but that should not preclude the two from slugging it out as expected. Gloves are not touched under the watchful eye of referee Mark Smith, and instead they want to fight. Garcia lets fly a kick and a few punches, and he gets pushed back to the wall and trips. Nelson jumps on top to take Garcia’s back in a hurry, and he gets both hooks in without effort. Garcia hand-fights to prevent Nelson from setting up a submission, so the Canadian smacks him in the forehead several times. Nelson tries to set up the body triangle, but Garcia is able to fight off the first setup while he twists to one side and uses two-on-one wrist control. Garcia explodes to spin around, and he falls into an armbar. Garcia unloads with punches with his free arm, and he strikes his way out of the submission and lets Nelson have it with an onslaught of punches and elbows. Nelson turns to his side and shells up, and he slows Garcia down. Garcia elects to grind his elbow on the cheek, and he thumps it down every so often. Garcia slams down a few punches, and he nails Nelson with an elbow that makes Nelson turn to turtle up. As Garcia unleashes a fury, Nelson keeps his wits about him and kicks off Garcia to force him upright. Garcia leaps down and elbows Nelson in the back of the head, and a lump develops in a hurry. Nelson sits up with his back to the cage, and Garcia rails him with an elbow that makes Nelson crumble to his side. Garcia releases a final flurry of elbows and punches, and Smith sees that Nelson is no longer defending himself and intervenes. Nelson tries to stand back up after the fight has been called off, and Smith is there to make sure he does not fall over. This is a statement performance for the ultraviolent Garcia, who has earned five straight knockouts and pounds his way into contender status.
The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Kyle Nelson R1 3:59 via TKO (Elbows and Punches)
Angelo picks Steve Garcia because he hits very hard, has good wrestling, and is on a four-fight knockout streak. However, he is hesitant because Kyle Nelson has been looking good lately and has power and toughness. He plans to have very little exposure on this fight if he bets.
Big Brady picks Steve Garcia to win by knockout in round one. He highlights Garcia's four-fight knockout streak and his dog mentality, but acknowledges Garcia gets dropped often. Brady thinks Garcia will get dropped but get back up and finish Nelson. He favors Garcia more as the fight goes into later rounds.
Cody picks Nelson on the moneyline, citing Garcia's poor chin and tendency to get dropped, while Nelson has improved cardio, wrestling, and durability. He notes Garcia's wins are often against tired or compromised opponents, and that Nelson's pressure and pace can overwhelm Garcia. He sees value at plus money and is confident Nelson can win.
Daniel acknowledges Kyle Nelson's improved style but thinks Garcia's kill-or-be-killed pressure will force Nelson to fight, potentially bringing back his old issues. He admits he hasn't been good at predicting the new Kyle Nelson, but he picks Garcia to extend his knockout streak. He notes Garcia is a killer who either knocks you out or gets knocked out.
Garcia is on a four-fight KO streak and has awkward angles that could trouble Nelson. Nelson is also on a roll but Garcia's power is a threat. The under 1.5 rounds is the preferred bet, as Garcia tends to finish early. Garcia by first-round KO is the pick.
Paul likes the over 1.5 rounds at +140, believing Nelson's improved cardio and fight IQ will avoid an early knockout. He thinks Nelson can make it competitive and potentially win a decision. He is not confident in betting Garcia at nearly -200, so he leans Nelson but prefers the over prop.
The MMA Guru picks Steve Garcia over Kyle Nelson, citing a bias against Canadian men. He notes Garcia's weird look as an advantage and his training at Jackson Wink and Soul Focus. He mentions Garcia has beaten good opponents like Melquizael Costa and Saimon Oliveira, but was finished by Chase Hooper. He predicts a decision or KO win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Garcia | 1 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
| SeungWoo Choi | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 9 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Garcia | 1 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
| SeungWoo Choi | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 9 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Garcia | 15 of 27 | 55% | 10 of 19 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 6 |
| SeungWoo Choi | 9 of 15 | 60% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Garcia | 15 of 27 | 55% | 10 of 19 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 6 |
| SeungWoo Choi | 9 of 15 | 60% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-148), Choi (+124)
Round 1
Finding himself in the unexpected situation of serving as the co-main event after the cancelation of Brad Tavares vs. Jun Yong Park, “Mean Machine” Garcia (15-5, 4-2 UFC) is ready to rise the occasion and lock down his fourth win in a row. The Jackson-Wink fighter will try to hand Choi (11-6, 4-5 UFC) his fourth loss in five fights, and the two featherweights will likely meet in the middle and throw down. When they do, referee Herb Dean will be hanging on tight. There is a touch of gloves, and Garcia is the initial aggressor as he gets into the center of the cage and lands a stomp kick to the knee. Garcia ducks back to avoid two looping hooks, only to race forward and bump into Choi’s forehead to tie him up. Garcia ties up a leg but is unable to put the South Korean down, and when Choi escapes, he throws hands. Garcia welcomes the exchange, and when things settle down, he lands another kick to the knee. Choi chambers and fires a low kick that puts Garcia down to a knee, and Garcia climbs back up and gets swept with another kick. Garcia wades forward, thinks about throwing a front kick and lets it go to stand and bang. Stand and bang is exactly what “Mean Machine” does, rocking Choi and getting clipped in a destructive exchange.
Garcia lands the cleaner of the blows as he continues to slug it out, and he knocks Choi off-balance with a left hand and floors him with another bomb of a left. Choi turns to his side and then knees in an effort to shell up and survive, but Garcia is a man possessed at getting the win. Garcia stings “Sting” repeatedly with hammerfists, raining down a seemingly unending onslaught of fists until Dean has no choice but to stop the fight.
Choi looks up at Dean quizzically as blood streams from his mouth, and Garcia runs to the cage wall to scream and then scales it to shout even louder. This is a big moment for Garcia, who has now picked up four straight knockout victories. The triumphant Garcia calls for an MMA fight against Dan Ige, a popular name lately, while also calling out commentator Daniel Cormier for a golf match.
The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Seung Woo Choi R1 1:36 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Steve Garcia because he is sneaky good with five UFC wins all by KO/TKO. He believes Garcia's striking and wrestling are there, and that Choi Seung-woo has been finished before. He has placed a bet on Garcia at -140 and expects the line to move.
Cody also picks Garcia but with less confidence, noting Garcia's own durability issues and the fact that both fighters have been dropped. He sees the fight as close to 50/50 and suggests taking Choi if plus money is available. He emphasizes the under 2.5 rounds as the best bet, expecting a violent finish.
Daniel Vreeland picks Steve Garcia by knockout, comparing the fight to a coin flip but ultimately choosing Garcia. He notes both fighters have high knockdown rates and can be dropped, but Garcia's size (6'0", 75" reach) and recent form (5 knockdowns in last 3 fights) give him the edge. He expects a stand-up war ending in a Garcia knockout.
Garcia is a -140 favorite. He relies on his knockout power and has a three-fight KO streak. Choi is more technical but has been finished before. Garcia can survive early pressure and land a big shot to get the KO. I prefer Garcia by knockout rather than moneyline, as his KO line is around +130.
Paul likes Garcia's momentum and power, noting his three-fight winning streak with five knockdowns. He questions Choi's durability, pointing out Choi has been knocked down five times in his last three fights. Paul thinks Garcia's power is the difference and expects a knockout, though he acknowledges both have shaky chins.
The MMA Guru picks Steve Garcia, noting he has doubted Garcia before but he keeps winning. He highlights Garcia's recent finishes over Malik El Kousa, Shannon Nurnbeck, and Chase Hooper, and his training at Jackson Wink. He points out Choi Seung-woo's questionable chin, getting wobbled in most fights, and believes Garcia's power and size at 145 will be too much.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Garcia | 1 | 29 of 49 | 59% | 41 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Melquizael Costa | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 20 of 25 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 4:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Garcia | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 12 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Melquizael Costa | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 19 of 22 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 4:41 | |
| 2 | Steve Garcia | 1 | 25 of 38 | 65% | 29 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Melquizael Costa | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Garcia | 29 of 49 | 59% | 26 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 3 of 8 | 22 of 31 |
| Melquizael Costa | 6 of 10 | 60% | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Garcia | 4 of 11 | 36% | 3 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Melquizael Costa | 5 of 7 | 71% | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Steve Garcia | 25 of 38 | 65% | 23 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 22 of 31 |
| Melquizael Costa | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-275), Garcia (+225)
Round 1
The predominant method of victory for these two fighters—now competing at lightweight due to the short-notice nature of their rescheduled pairing—is the knockout. Referee Chris Tognoni should don his hard hat before going out against these two sluggers. “Mean Machine” Garcia (14-5, 3-2 UFC) has performed his last six victories via strikes, while LFA vet Costa (20-6, 1-1 UFC) has earned two of his last three wins by knockout. Before the fists fly, they meet together in a sporting manner. Garcia springs forward, but he pulls back before engaging. On his second advance, Garcia throws caution to the wind, winging big punches. Costa shimmies to the side and allows Garcia to push past him, and he hooks his leg around Garcia’s and tries to drag him down to the floor. Costa elects to lift Garcia up and slam him to the mat, but “Mean Machine” moves back up to his feet quickly. Costa clings to Garcia from behind relentlessly, and Garcia tries to defend with no-look elbows. Costa knees Garcia in the backside and upper thigh as he pressures his man, and Garcia responds with elbows on the thigh. Costa whips Garcia to a knee, and Garcia considers grabbing the fence but at the last second just points at it. Costa forces his man down to a knee again, but Garcia springs up with no ill effects. Costa continues to embrace the grind from behind, shutting down any offense from Garcia and forcing him to spend energy in strange exchanges. When Costa looks to get a hook in, Garcia shucks it off. Costa peppers with knees until scooping Garcia up and dumping him down once more. Garcia powers back upright, and he wiggles and wriggles but cannot escape. Costa trips Garcia out but is unable to keep him grounded for more than a second, and he stays in this position until the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Round 2
Garcia comes out of his corner angrily, and he swings violently and connects with a few of his shots. Costa responds as the two engage in a mad brawl, with punches and elbows flailing in all directions. Garcia wings a left and a right, catching Costa and knocking him down to the canvas. “Mean Machine” follows him to the mat and drives down a vicious elbow, splitting Costa wide open, and Costa is in a bad way. Garcia smashes his man with fists and sharp elbows, and blood sprays around the canvas. Costa turns over and gives up his back, and Garcia snatches up a rear-naked choke. Perhaps due to the blood flow, Costa is able to slide out of the choke and turns to his back.
Garcia postures up, in full mount, and he demolishes “Melky” with three ruthless elbows. Tognoni halts the fight, with Costa out or very nearly out.
When Garcia dismounts his defeated adversary, Costa tries to take Tognoni down, and he is deep in on a single. Tognoni displays excellent takedown defense as officials flood the cage, with one very loud shouting at Costa to wake him back up. Costa realizes that he is trying to take down a referee and that the fight is over, and he surrenders.
The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Melquizael Costa R2 1:01 via KO (Elbows)
Cody picks Melquizael Costa. He notes that Costa is a volume puncher and Garcia is a knockout-or-bust fighter. Cody points out that Garcia has poor defense and gets rocked in his wins and losses. He thinks Costa's volume and durability will be key. Cody is suspicious that the line hasn't moved despite Garcia pulling out last week due to illness and moving up a weight class. He still favors Costa.
Paul picks Melquizael Costa. He notes that he liked Costa last week and nothing has changed. Paul points out that Garcia has a history of missing weight and was sick last week, but now fights at lightweight without cutting weight. He thinks Garcia's power is a threat but Costa's volume and durability should win out. Paul is not taking Garcia just because of the circumstances.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Garcia | 1 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 31 of 63 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 1 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 50 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Garcia | 1 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 29 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 0 | 6 of 23 | 26% | 39 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 2 | Steve Garcia | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 1 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Garcia | 18 of 35 | 51% | 15 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 19 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 17 of 40 | 42% | 14 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Garcia | 16 of 32 | 50% | 13 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 19 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 6 of 23 | 26% | 5 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Steve Garcia | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 11 of 17 | 64% | 9 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nuerdanbieke (-200), Garcia (+170)
Round 1
Moving right along, this next fight takes place in the featherweight category. Fresh off some sort of controversy from his last match with Darrick Minner – you can look it up – Shayilan (39-10, 3-1 UFC) wants to move on from that messiness and keep his win streak going. In his 50th professional MMA bout at the tender age of 28, Shayilan battles Garcia (13-5, 2-2 UFC), who has been on the giving and receiving ends of rough knockouts as of late. Before the fists fly, referee Larry Folsom clocks them in, and the fighters do not elect to touch gloves first. Garcia goes after a front kick, but Shayilan is well out of the way. Shayilan intercepts a kick to land a solid one-two, and Garcia pushes off with a front kick that slams into the cup. Folsom sees this and pauses the action immediately. After a little under a minute, Shayilan clears his pain and discomfort and is good to go. They crash together with big punches, and Shayilan backs off to coil back his big right hand. Garcia rushes in, and Shayilan unloads it, blasting Garcia in the face and sending him crumpling to the mat. Shayilan looks to finish the job with a barrage of punches, but Garcia ties him up and holds on to clear his wits. Shayilan postures up to nail Garcia with an elbow, and Garcia scoots his way back to the fencing. Garcia wall-walks to stand back up, and Shayilan drags him back to a knee in short order. Shayilan sneaks around to take the back of “Mean Machine,” and Garcia slides back into the clinch and pushes the Chinese fighter to the wire. Shayilan throws him to the mat and slashes down with an elbow, and he lowers himself into the guard. Garcia hangs on from on bottom to quell the bludgeoning, and Shayilan methodically opens up every so often to connect with a solid shot. Garcia works his way back up and bursts to his feet, and he has busted Shayilan open with his own strikes. Garcia rushes out, pushing the pace on “Wolverine” and unloading with a few punches. Garcia belts Shayilan in the face, stunning him and forcing Shayilan to shoot for a desperation takedown. Garcia, from his back, kicks a downed Shayilan in the face illegally, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan
Round 2
Garcia is amped up to start off the second round, rushing after the Chinese competitor and throwing bombs. Shayilan ducks down, and Garcia times a perfect kick that smashes Shayilan in the face and relocates his nose. Sensing that his opponent is in big, big trouble, Garcia unleashes a high kick, a right hand and a left that knock Shayilan back to the wall.
Garcia digs a stabbing, toe-first kick to the liver, and he punches the exact same spot, and “Wolverine” crumples to the mat. Any subsequent ground-and-pound is purely academic, and “Mean Machine” hammers the nail with a couple follow-up punches.
This is a mighty comeback for Garcia, who got cracked at the beginning of the fight and recovered to come on strong and pull off the solid stoppage.
The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Nuerdanbieke Shayilan R2 0:36 via KO (Body Kick and Punches)
Angelo picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke but is hesitant to bet because of his low volume output. He notes that Shayilan is a powerful grappler with a bully style, but Steve Garcia is a high-volume striker who could steal rounds if Shayilan doesn't push the pace early. He is waiting for significant strike prop bets to drop, as he believes Steve Garcia will land more significant strikes even if Shayilan wins.
Big Brady picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke due to his wrestling advantage and durability concerns with Steve Garcia. He notes Garcia has been dropped multiple times in recent fights, questioning his chin. He believes Nuerdanbieke can mix takedowns and control the fight, potentially winning by decision or even knocking out Garcia. He predicts a decision win for Nuerdanbieke.
Cody also picks Garcia, agreeing with Paul's reasoning. He notes Garcia's improvements and power, and that Nuerdanbieke's wrestling may not be enough to control Garcia. Cody mentions that Garcia has never been taken down in the UFC. He is cautious but sees value at +155. He says he took a shot on Garcia but warns it's a risky bet.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nuerdanbieke. He notes that Garcia is fun and dangerous but his path to win leads him into his opponent's offense.
Jacob is confident in Shayilan, noting that he trusts his chin more and believes he has the wrestling to slow down Steve Garcia's pressure. He thinks Garcia will come out aggressively, but Shayilan can counter him or take him down. He mentions that Garcia gets dropped often, so Shayilan has a good chance of a knockout. However, he wouldn't bet it because Garcia is a dangerous opponent who risks it all.
Nuerdanbieke uses his stocky frame to grind opponents with takedowns and top pressure, but his striking is wild and he slows down. Garcia has knockout power and unorthodox angles, but his consistency is questionable. I'm skeptical but think the grappling-heavy fighter is the smarter pick, though I have low confidence due to Garcia's power and unknowns.
Paul picks Garcia but with very low confidence. He notes Garcia's tendency to run into punches and get dropped, but believes Nuerdanbieke is not a power puncher and relies on wrestling. Paul argues that Garcia has good takedown defense and power, and that Nuerdanbieke's low striking output could lead to a decision loss if he can't hold Garcia down. He also mentions the Florida crowd may favor Garcia's aggression. He calls it a 'fool pick of the week' and warns not to bet much.
The MMA Guru picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke to win by 29-28 decision. He expects Nuerdanbieke to get a takedown in the first round, control the grappling, and mix in strikes. He thinks Garcia will have some success on the feet in the third round but not enough to overcome the earlier rounds. The prediction is detailed with round-by-round scenarios.
Zane picks Nuerdanbieke because Garcia has terrible wrestling defense and Nuerdanbieke is persistent and strong. He notes that Nuerdanbieke will work hard and take Garcia down, which is too much of a hole for Garcia to overcome.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Garcia | 0 | 10 of 30 | 33% | 10 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chase Hooper | 3 | 29 of 44 | 65% | 31 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Garcia | 0 | 10 of 30 | 33% | 10 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chase Hooper | 3 | 29 of 44 | 65% | 31 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Garcia | 10 of 30 | 33% | 7 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Hooper | 29 of 44 | 65% | 19 of 33 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 26 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Garcia | 10 of 30 | 33% | 7 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Hooper | 29 of 44 | 65% | 19 of 33 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 26 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The quintessential “striker vs. grappler” label certainly applies to this next pairing at 145 pounds, when the submission-minded Hooper (11-2-1, 3-2 UFC) comes to blows with “Mean Machine” Garcia (12-5, 1-2 UFC). The third man in the cage for this fight that could end suddenly is referee Herb Dean, and he prepares himself should he need to step in. The fighters touch gloves, and Hooper is immediately the aggressor. He walks into a few punches from Garcia, and Hooper is stung in a hurry. Garcia follows a combination with a knee, and Hooper shakes it off and backs off. Garcia sets him down with a left hand, and he does not follow him down. When Hooper stands back up, “Mean Machine” blasts him with another left hand, and Hooper hits the mat for the third time in under a minute. The youngster Hooper keeps his wits about him and works his way back up, and Garcia is not about to let him off the hook. Hooper flails and spins with a back fist, but the power of Garcia is vastly more significant.
The Jackson-Wink fighter chains together a right to the body and a left to the head, and “The Dream” becomes a nightmare as he crumples to the mat from a thudding left hand. While he might still be able to keep going, Dean recognizes that the last knockdown was a bad one as Hooper’s face is busted and swelling fast. The onslaught has ripped open Hooper's left eyebrow to leak blood in the young man's eye, and it does not take more than a few mean hammerfists from “Mean Machine” to prompt Dean’s intervention.
This was largely one-way traffic for Garcia, who registered an instant contender for “Beatdown of the Year” by demolishing the 23-year-old in a hair over 90 seconds.
The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Chase Hooper R1 1:32 via TKO (Punches)
Big Brady picks Chase Hooper to win by second-round TKO. He highlights Hooper's improved wrestling and striking, and his dangerous ground game, noting that Hooper finished the tough Felipe Colares in his last fight. He contrasts Garcia's sketchy chin and poor grappling defense, referencing Garcia's fight against Luis Pena where he was controlled for 14 minutes. Brady believes Hooper will get the fight to the mat and finish Garcia.
Cody picks Chase Hooper, noting his improvements in wrestling and striking, and his physical maturity. He criticizes Steve Garcia's poor chin, striking defense, and lack of X-factor. Cody expects Hooper to take Garcia down, backpack him with a body triangle, and finish with ground and pound. He likes Hooper by knockout at +475.
Connor picks Hooper confidently, highlighting his improved understanding of MMA grappling and his aggressive ground and pound. He notes that Garcia's game is built on getting to the pocket and taking people down, which will give Hooper opportunities to wrap him up and do damage. Connor compares it to Garcia's fight against Luis Pena, but with more damage coming back.
Daniel Levi picks Chase Hooper, citing his heart, improvement, and grappling skills. He notes Garcia's weight issues and recent KO losses. He references the Luis Pena fight where Pena backpacked Garcia, giving confidence in Hooper's grappling. He is not interested in laying -260.
Jacob is very confident in Chase Hooper, citing his improved striking, toughness, and elite grappling. He notes Steve Garcia gets dropped often and has chin issues, and if Garcia wrestles, that plays into Hooper's strengths. Jacob sees a potential TKO or submission for Hooper.
Hooper is a jiu-jitsu ace but his striking is still developing. Garcia has power but poor takedown defense and can be controlled against the cage. Hooper should be able to take Garcia down and work for a submission, similar to Luis Pena's performance. However, the heavy chalk on Hooper is concerning given his past struggles. The submission prop at +250 is appealing.
Paul picks Chase Hooper but is hesitant to bet at -300. He notes Hooper's youth and development, but is concerned about his wrestling and stand-up still being works in progress. Paul says he will pick Hooper for the show but may not bet him.
The MMA Guru picks Chase Hooper over Steve Garcia, impressed by Hooper's last performance where he gassed out and finished Felipe Colares. He notes Hooper's grappling pace and ability to drown opponents on the ground. He believes Garcia, coming off a brutal KO loss, will struggle with Hooper's pressure and that Hooper will win by 29-28 decision, losing the first but winning the last two rounds.
Zane picks Hooper confidently, noting his huge improvements in striking and grappling aggression. He describes Hooper as a super technical grappler who now uses ground and pound effectively. Zane argues that Garcia's style of pushing into the pocket and clinching plays directly into Hooper's strengths, and that Garcia is not a great athlete, making him vulnerable to Hooper's submissions and control.
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melquizael Costa | 0 | 16 of 35 | 45% | 76 of 106 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 3:00 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 20 of 28 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 1 | 2 | 6:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melquizael Costa | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 31 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:28 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 9 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 3:52 | |
| 2 | Melquizael Costa | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 31 of 46 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 7 of 11 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 2 | 2:34 | |
| 3 | Melquizael Costa | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:51 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melquizael Costa | 16 of 35 | 45% | 8 of 20 | 5 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 22 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 6 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 6 of 8 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melquizael Costa | 4 of 7 | 57% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Melquizael Costa | 6 of 16 | 37% | 4 of 9 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 8 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Melquizael Costa | 6 of 12 | 50% | 3 of 7 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-170), Shayilan (+142)
Round 1
The prelims continue with a featherweight contest featuring two men with plenty of experience despite their young ages. At 27, Costa (20-7, 1-2 UFC) is attempting to even his UFC record to .500, while the 30-year-old Shayilan (39-11, 3-2 UFC) aims to make his 51st pro outing a successful one. The third man in the Octagon will be referee Mike Beltran, and the fight kicks off with no plan of a glove touch. Costa jabs his way forward and tosses out a low kick, and Shayilan hops out of the way. Costa kicks low a second time, and Shayilan counters him with a long right hand. Costa lazily reaches out with a right hand, and Shayilan ducks it and hits an easy double-leg takedown to put the vibrantly haired featherweight on his back. Costa turns to his side and looks for a kimura sweep, and he cranks on the submission from his back. “Wolverine” is calm, cool and collected, and he shrugs off the two-on-one wrist lock to keep his arm in good position. Before he burns his arms out, Costa lets go, and he explodes back to his knees and to his feet. Shayilan hits a quick mat return and loops as hook in to take Costa’s back standing. Costa leans himself against the cage wall, so Shayilan snags the body lock and hurls Costa to the floor. Costa climbs back up, and Shayilan uses sheer muscle to toss Costa down once more. Costa turns quickly to swirl around and take the Chinese fighter’s back, and Shayilan counters with a kneebar out of nowhere. Costa defends the leglock by pulling on Shayilan’s knee to try to free his limb, and he stands up and punches down to force the submission apart. Shayilan sits up and attacks a double, and he presses Costa against the cage when he cannot ground him. Using a trip, Shayilan chucks Costa to the mat, and Costa rolls through and even threatens briefly with his own leglock before Shayilan turns through it. Shayilan climbs on top, and Costa responds with short elbows. As Costa is warned for striking the back of the head, the round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan
Round 2
Costa moves right to the center of the cage to start the round, and he walks down Shayilan and pushes out a front kick that is just short of the intended target. Shayilan pursues a level change while Costa kicks at him, and he succeeds in dumping the Brazilian to the floor. Shayilan steps into the guard and thumps his man with an elbow, and Costa replies with a few off his back before rolling to try to get hold of an armlock using his legs. Costa bursts out of the position flat on his back to turn to the side, and he grabs hold of an ankle and trips Shayilan up to put him on his seat. Costa drags Shayilan away from the cage, and Shayilan times this explosion to flip around and get on Costa’s back. Costa stands up and turns to shed the Chinese fighter from his back, and they settle for a clinch. Shayilan shoots deep for a single, and Costa turns the corner to stuff it and somehow get hold of Shayilan. Costa ends up dragging Shayilan down from behind, and he wriggle his left arm around the chin for a moment. Shayilan defends the submission and turns all the way through to reestablish top position. Costa considers a triangle choke setup, but Shayilan tosses it aside. Costa uses this moment to power back to his feet, and Shayilan remains stuck on him like fly paper. Costa works the body with a few knees, and he is forced to stop a sudden level change. Shayilan fails on a second takedown try, and he takes a high kick upside the head that draws an immediate lump by the side of his eye. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Round 3
The last round kicks off with Costa throwing single kicks one after the other. Shayilan parries them and circles away from the power, and he ducks a head kick that zips past him. Costa scores a body kick and eats a two-punch combo for his effort, and attacks the body a second time. Shayilan drops all the way down to the ankle to try to trip Costa up, but Costa turns him over and bowls the Chinese fighter to the floor. Shayilan explodes back to his knees, and Costa hangs on from behind before dragging Shayilan down and getting both hooks in.
“Melk” uses a fierce rear-naked choke grip, squeezing it on top of the chin, but it is extremely tight and quite dangerous. Shayilan’s eyes go wide, as he is surprised at just how powerful the face crank is from the Brazilian. Using palm-to-palm grip, he crushes the submission with every remaining bit of his energy.
Rather than grit it out, Shayilan decides to tap with his fist a few times. This is a huge win for Costa, who now celebrates a perfectly even distribution of victory: seven knockouts, seven submissions and seven decisions. This also marks the seventh time that Shayilan has been submitted.
The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Nuerdanbieke Shayilan R3 1:50 via Submission (Face Crank)
Angelo picks Mel Costa but at very low confidence, noting that Costa is the better fighter but makes poor decisions by wrestling when he should strike. He worries Costa can be pushed around and taken down by Shayilan's bully style. He emphasizes that Costa's wrestling should be plan B, not plan A, and that if he engages in clinch work, Shayilan will drag him to the ground.
Cody picks Melquizael Costa, noting his striking volume and movement, but is concerned about his last performance where he gassed out against Steve Garcia. He thinks Costa can outwork Nuerdanbieke if he fights smart and doesn't overuse wrestling. Cody expects Costa to win a decision but is not highly confident.
Daniel Vreeland is not high on Melquizael Costa, calling him overrated and lacking killer instinct. He favors Shayilan Nuerdanbieke's power and wrestling, though he notes gassing issues. He believes Nuerdanbieke can hurt Costa or at least win the first round, and calls it a dog-or-pass situation.
Jacob picks Shayilan, expecting a wrestling vs. jiu-jitsu battle where Shayilan's powerful control wrestling will be key. He thinks Shayilan can get takedowns and keep control for at least two rounds to win a decision. He notes that if Costa is ever in a scramble when Shayilan is tired, Costa is more dangerous, but overall favors Shayilan's wrestling.
Costa's movement and Jiu-Jitsu should keep him out of trouble from Nuerdanbieke. As long as Costa stays conscious early, his Jiu-Jitsu will outlast Nuerdanbieke, who will slow down, allowing Costa to take control and potentially find a submission.
Paul picks Melquizael Costa, citing his superior striking and range management. He notes that Nuerdanbieke has power but low volume and may rely on wrestling. Paul thinks Costa can win with volume if he keeps the fight standing, but is not confident due to Costa's gas tank issues.
The MMA Guru picks Melquizael Costa because he believes Costa is better on the feet, with nasty front kicks, head kicks, and question mark kicks. He thinks Shayilan's ground game is not dominant enough to expose Costa's weaknesses, and that Shayilan's style of trading hooks and shooting double legs won't work. He notes both have lost to Steve Garcia.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Garcia | 1 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 31 of 63 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 1 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 50 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Garcia | 1 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 29 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 0 | 6 of 23 | 26% | 39 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 2 | Steve Garcia | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 1 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Garcia | 18 of 35 | 51% | 15 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 19 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 17 of 40 | 42% | 14 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Garcia | 16 of 32 | 50% | 13 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 19 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 6 of 23 | 26% | 5 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Steve Garcia | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 11 of 17 | 64% | 9 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nuerdanbieke (-200), Garcia (+170)
Round 1
Moving right along, this next fight takes place in the featherweight category. Fresh off some sort of controversy from his last match with Darrick Minner – you can look it up – Shayilan (39-10, 3-1 UFC) wants to move on from that messiness and keep his win streak going. In his 50th professional MMA bout at the tender age of 28, Shayilan battles Garcia (13-5, 2-2 UFC), who has been on the giving and receiving ends of rough knockouts as of late. Before the fists fly, referee Larry Folsom clocks them in, and the fighters do not elect to touch gloves first. Garcia goes after a front kick, but Shayilan is well out of the way. Shayilan intercepts a kick to land a solid one-two, and Garcia pushes off with a front kick that slams into the cup. Folsom sees this and pauses the action immediately. After a little under a minute, Shayilan clears his pain and discomfort and is good to go. They crash together with big punches, and Shayilan backs off to coil back his big right hand. Garcia rushes in, and Shayilan unloads it, blasting Garcia in the face and sending him crumpling to the mat. Shayilan looks to finish the job with a barrage of punches, but Garcia ties him up and holds on to clear his wits. Shayilan postures up to nail Garcia with an elbow, and Garcia scoots his way back to the fencing. Garcia wall-walks to stand back up, and Shayilan drags him back to a knee in short order. Shayilan sneaks around to take the back of “Mean Machine,” and Garcia slides back into the clinch and pushes the Chinese fighter to the wire. Shayilan throws him to the mat and slashes down with an elbow, and he lowers himself into the guard. Garcia hangs on from on bottom to quell the bludgeoning, and Shayilan methodically opens up every so often to connect with a solid shot. Garcia works his way back up and bursts to his feet, and he has busted Shayilan open with his own strikes. Garcia rushes out, pushing the pace on “Wolverine” and unloading with a few punches. Garcia belts Shayilan in the face, stunning him and forcing Shayilan to shoot for a desperation takedown. Garcia, from his back, kicks a downed Shayilan in the face illegally, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan
Round 2
Garcia is amped up to start off the second round, rushing after the Chinese competitor and throwing bombs. Shayilan ducks down, and Garcia times a perfect kick that smashes Shayilan in the face and relocates his nose. Sensing that his opponent is in big, big trouble, Garcia unleashes a high kick, a right hand and a left that knock Shayilan back to the wall.
Garcia digs a stabbing, toe-first kick to the liver, and he punches the exact same spot, and “Wolverine” crumples to the mat. Any subsequent ground-and-pound is purely academic, and “Mean Machine” hammers the nail with a couple follow-up punches.
This is a mighty comeback for Garcia, who got cracked at the beginning of the fight and recovered to come on strong and pull off the solid stoppage.
The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Nuerdanbieke Shayilan R2 0:36 via KO (Body Kick and Punches)
Angelo picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke but is hesitant to bet because of his low volume output. He notes that Shayilan is a powerful grappler with a bully style, but Steve Garcia is a high-volume striker who could steal rounds if Shayilan doesn't push the pace early. He is waiting for significant strike prop bets to drop, as he believes Steve Garcia will land more significant strikes even if Shayilan wins.
Big Brady picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke due to his wrestling advantage and durability concerns with Steve Garcia. He notes Garcia has been dropped multiple times in recent fights, questioning his chin. He believes Nuerdanbieke can mix takedowns and control the fight, potentially winning by decision or even knocking out Garcia. He predicts a decision win for Nuerdanbieke.
Cody also picks Garcia, agreeing with Paul's reasoning. He notes Garcia's improvements and power, and that Nuerdanbieke's wrestling may not be enough to control Garcia. Cody mentions that Garcia has never been taken down in the UFC. He is cautious but sees value at +155. He says he took a shot on Garcia but warns it's a risky bet.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nuerdanbieke. He notes that Garcia is fun and dangerous but his path to win leads him into his opponent's offense.
Jacob is confident in Shayilan, noting that he trusts his chin more and believes he has the wrestling to slow down Steve Garcia's pressure. He thinks Garcia will come out aggressively, but Shayilan can counter him or take him down. He mentions that Garcia gets dropped often, so Shayilan has a good chance of a knockout. However, he wouldn't bet it because Garcia is a dangerous opponent who risks it all.
Nuerdanbieke uses his stocky frame to grind opponents with takedowns and top pressure, but his striking is wild and he slows down. Garcia has knockout power and unorthodox angles, but his consistency is questionable. I'm skeptical but think the grappling-heavy fighter is the smarter pick, though I have low confidence due to Garcia's power and unknowns.
Paul picks Garcia but with very low confidence. He notes Garcia's tendency to run into punches and get dropped, but believes Nuerdanbieke is not a power puncher and relies on wrestling. Paul argues that Garcia has good takedown defense and power, and that Nuerdanbieke's low striking output could lead to a decision loss if he can't hold Garcia down. He also mentions the Florida crowd may favor Garcia's aggression. He calls it a 'fool pick of the week' and warns not to bet much.
The MMA Guru picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke to win by 29-28 decision. He expects Nuerdanbieke to get a takedown in the first round, control the grappling, and mix in strikes. He thinks Garcia will have some success on the feet in the third round but not enough to overcome the earlier rounds. The prediction is detailed with round-by-round scenarios.
Zane picks Nuerdanbieke because Garcia has terrible wrestling defense and Nuerdanbieke is persistent and strong. He notes that Nuerdanbieke will work hard and take Garcia down, which is too much of a hole for Garcia to overcome.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 0 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Darrick Minner | 1 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 32 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 0 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Darrick Minner | 1 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 32 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Darrick Minner | 19 of 36 | 52% | 19 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 26 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Darrick Minner | 19 of 36 | 52% | 19 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 26 |
Angelo picks Nuerdanbieke, impressed by his fight IQ and ability to initiate and control grappling. He notes Minner is better than his record but was outstruck by Ryan Hall, which is embarrassing. He expects Nuerdanbieke to bully forward and control on the mat. He mentions he got the moneyline at -200.
Big Brady sees Minner as a live dog due to his dangerous submission game and Nuerdanbieke's history of being submitted. He notes Minner's improvements with coach James Krause and his ability to survive submissions (e.g., against Ryan Hall). He predicts Minner will find a first-round submission, though he acknowledges Minner could gas out if it goes longer.
Cody picks Darrick Minner as an underdog, noting his one-dimensional submission game, especially a nasty guillotine. He thinks Minner could catch Nuerdanbieke early in transition, as Nuerdanbieke has shown poor wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu in his UFC debut against Josh Culibao and was taken down by Sean Soriano. Minner's cardio is questionable, but if he doesn't finish in the first round, Cody suggests live betting Nuerdanbieke. He sees Minner as a live underdog who could snatch a submission.
Connor picks Minner because Nuerdanbieke has six submission losses, four in the first round, and Minner is a fast, opportunistic grappler who capitalizes on mistakes. He acknowledges that if the fight goes past the first round, Nuerdanbieke likely wins, but Minner's early explosiveness and submission threat are decisive. Connor notes that Nuerdanbieke's losses to T.J. Brown and Sean Soriano show he can be broken by aggressive fighters like Minner.
Daniel Levi picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke, citing his strength and top control. He notes that Darrick Minner is dangerous early with submissions but tends to fatigue, and once Shayilan neutralizes those early threats, he can dominate the second and third rounds.
The host sees Minner as sub-round-one-or-bust, with a dangerous submission threat early. He expects Shayilan to survive the early danger, use his strong clinch and grappling to grind Minner down, and win by decision. He notes the line is typical for a fighter with a wider path to victory but warns Minner could catch a desperation guillotine. He passes on betting.
Paul is more drawn to the under 2.5 rounds than the moneyline. He notes that Nuerdanbieke has been submitted by nobodies on the Chinese regional scene, and while he survived four submission attempts against TJ Brown, that's not high-level competition. Minner tends to gas if he doesn't get the early finish, but Paul thinks the fight ends inside the distance. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop over the moneyline.
The MMA Guru picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke, citing his weird strength, improved cardio, and methodical style. He notes that Minner has pulled off upsets but against wild opponents, while Nuerdanbieke is technical and low-risk. He predicts a 29-28 decision in a competitive fight, respecting Minner's abilities.
Zane favors Nuerdanbieke because Minner is a first-round finish machine who often gasses if he doesn't get the early stoppage. Nuerdanbieke is durable, pushes a high pace, and has good transitional skills, which should wear Minner down as the fight goes on. Zane notes that Minner's recent decision win over Charles Rosa was more about Rosa's passive style than Minner's improvement, and Nuerdanbieke's aggression will break him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 1 | 47 of 79 | 59% | 86 of 121 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 2 | 7:32 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 42 of 99 | 42% | 58 of 125 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 4 | 2 | 2:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 1 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 30 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 24 of 49 | 48% | 29 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 17 of 20 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 2:47 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 7 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 3 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 39 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 2:28 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 22 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 1:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 47 of 79 | 59% | 41 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 32 of 61 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 16 |
| T.J. Brown | 42 of 99 | 42% | 30 of 86 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 36 of 92 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 22 of 42 | 52% | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| T.J. Brown | 24 of 49 | 48% | 15 of 39 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 45 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 |
| T.J. Brown | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 20 of 29 | 68% | 19 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
| T.J. Brown | 16 of 41 | 39% | 13 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Angelo picks T.J. Brown, believing he can win either the grappling or kickboxing exchanges. He notes both fighters have poor takedown defense, so the fight may come down to who shoots first. He worries about Brown's defensive wrestling but expects Brown to initiate and get takedowns, leading to a win.
Big Brady picks T.J. Brown to win by first-round submission. He believes Brown's grappling is superior and that Nuerdanbieke is one-dimensional (wrestling only) with poor takedown defense (33%) and has been submitted six times. He notes Brown's submission skills (arm triangle) and that he nearly submitted Charles Rosa. He warns that Brown's fight IQ and cardio are questionable, but expects an early submission. He calls it a bad matchup for Nuerdanbieke.
Cody thinks Brown is the better wrestler and grappler, and has a striking advantage. He notes Nuerdanbieke's poor striking and inability to finish takedowns. He expects Brown to win by decision.
Paul agrees, pointing out Nuerdanbieke's low output and poor takedown stats. He thinks Brown's pressure and striking will look better to the judges.
The host picks T.J. Brown, citing his training with Bryce Mitchell as beneficial for grappling. He believes Brown will stuff takedowns as Shayilan slows down, and win the second and third rounds via decision. He notes Shayilan's wins are not impressive and he lost clearly to Joshua Culibao.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 0 | 17 of 49 | 34% | 111 of 190 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 2 | 7:25 |
| Sean Soriano | 0 | 35 of 56 | 62% | 49 of 76 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 2 | 1:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 0 | 5 of 21 | 23% | 10 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Sean Soriano | 0 | 19 of 30 | 63% | 22 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:22 | |
| 2 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 48 of 64 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 2 | 2:53 |
| Sean Soriano | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 15 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:23 | |
| 3 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 0 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 53 of 99 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:23 |
| Sean Soriano | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 17 of 49 | 34% | 11 of 38 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 15 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Sean Soriano | 35 of 56 | 62% | 16 of 34 | 9 of 11 | 10 of 11 | 30 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 5 of 21 | 23% | 1 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Soriano | 19 of 30 | 63% | 7 of 17 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 8 | 14 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | |
| 2 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 9 of 18 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Soriano | 12 of 19 | 63% | 6 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 3 of 10 | 30% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Sean Soriano | 4 of 7 | 57% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans toward Shayilan, trusting his forward pressure and wrestling game plan over Sean Soriano's inconsistency in the UFC. He notes Soriano has heavy hands and speed but hasn't risen to the occasion in the UFC, while Shayilan's striking defense is a concern. He calls it a tough pick and says it's more of a pick against Soriano than for Shayilan. He does not place a moneyline bet due to lack of confidence.
Big Brady picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke as a big underdog at +245. He points out that Sean Soriano has a 53% takedown defense and has been submitted or controlled in all four of his UFC fights. He believes Nuerdanbieke's wrestling and grappling can exploit that hole, and he predicts a second-round submission. He admits Nuerdanbieke is not a great fighter but feels the line is off.
Cody picks Soriano but is nervous about the -290 price. He acknowledges Soriano's well-known grappling deficiencies but believes this is a favorable matchup. He notes that Soriano's opponent, Nuerdanbieke (Wolverine), is raw and was knocked out by a 19-year-old. Soriano is a superior striker and has been working on his wrestling. Cody thinks Soriano will win, possibly by knockout, but he is not fully confident due to Soriano's history of submission losses.
Daniel Levi picks Sean Soriano to win by knockout early. He praises Soriano's fast hands, explosive striking, and takedown defense. He notes that Soriano is on a different level than Nuerdanbieke, but worries about his history of bad decisions on the mat. Levi believes if Soriano doesn't mentally break, he will get his first UFC win.
Lock sees this fight as binary: Shayilan wants takedowns, Soriano wants to keep it standing and knock him out. He thinks Soriano has much crisper striking and will find a knockout blow. He notes Shayilan struggles to hold opponents down and Soriano showed good takedown defense in his last fight. Lock prefers Soriano by KO at +220 rather than paying -275 on the moneyline.
Paul picks Soriano but is not confident. He notes that Soriano has a clear path to victory via striking, but his grappling is a major liability. He points out that Nuerdanbieke is not a great wrestler and Soriano should be able to keep the fight standing. Paul is worried about the price and Soriano's history, but thinks this is a winnable matchup for him.
The MMA Guru picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke over Sean Soriano. He notes that Soriano has been out-grappled throughout his career, and Nuerdanbieke is a younger, strong grappler with submission wins. He mentions that Nuerdanbieke took the Khalil fight on short notice, explaining his slowdown. He expects Nuerdanbieke to out-grapple Soriano and win by unanimous decision, winning the first two rounds and losing the third.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Culibao | 0 | 53 of 104 | 50% | 87 of 140 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 0 | 17 of 63 | 26% | 23 of 71 | 2 of 14 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 6:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Culibao | 0 | 11 of 14 | 78% | 21 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 0 | 6 of 18 | 33% | 9 of 21 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 | |
| 2 | Josh Culibao | 0 | 21 of 44 | 47% | 34 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 0 | 5 of 21 | 23% | 5 of 22 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 | |
| 3 | Josh Culibao | 0 | 21 of 46 | 45% | 32 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 0 | 6 of 24 | 25% | 9 of 28 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Culibao | 53 of 104 | 50% | 34 of 82 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 21 | 51 of 101 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 17 of 63 | 26% | 13 of 55 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 4 | 12 of 53 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Culibao | 11 of 14 | 78% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 6 of 18 | 33% | 4 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 12 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Josh Culibao | 21 of 44 | 47% | 12 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 11 | 20 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 5 of 21 | 23% | 4 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Josh Culibao | 21 of 46 | 45% | 16 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 6 of 24 | 25% | 5 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Culibao based on superior competition and a strong performance against Charles Jourdain (a draw he thought Culibao won). He expects a decision win but notes a knockout wouldn't shock him. He acknowledges Nuerdanbieke's solid wrestling and striking but questions his level of opposition.
Cody Saftic picks Josh Culibao, noting that Nuerdanbieke's record is built on low-level Chinese competition and that he looked out of place in his UFC debut. He believes Culibao's boxing and takedown defense will be enough to win, likely by knockout. Saftic is interested in the under 2.5 rounds at plus money, as he expects a finish.
Daniel Levi picks Josh Culibao, noting that Culibao has faced tough competition in the UFC (Jalin Turner, Charles Jourdain) and has paid his dues training with Volkanovski. He believes Shayilan Nuerdanbieke is not ready for the UFC, citing the poor performances of Chinese male prospects and the difficulty of the long flight from China. He expects Culibao to get his first UFC win.
Matt picks Josh Culibao by KO, but is not betting the fight due to the high price (-250). He thinks Culibao's toughness and pressure will be too much for Shayilan, who has faced weak competition. He notes Chinese fighters have not performed well in the UFC recently. He sees Culibao landing better strikes and possibly mixing in takedowns, and likes the KO prop at +350.
Paul Shaughnessy picks Culibao, echoing Saftic's concerns about Nuerdanbieke's level of competition. He notes that Culibao has fought tougher opponents and that his boxing looked improved in his last fight. He believes Culibao will win by knockout or decision, but prefers the under 2.5 rounds as a bet.
The MMA Guru predicts Josh Culibao will win by first-round TKO via a straight right hand. He believes Culibao will be too fast and powerful in the opening round, and that Nuerdanbieke's only chance is a first-round finish. Culibao will land a straight right down the pipe to put Nuerdanbieke down and finish him.
Expert Picks (9)
Angelo picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke but is hesitant to bet because of his low volume output. He notes that Shayilan is a powerful grappler with a bully style, but Steve Garcia is a high-volume striker who could steal rounds if Shayilan doesn't push the pace early. He is waiting for significant strike prop bets to drop, as he believes Steve Garcia will land more significant strikes even if Shayilan wins.
Big Brady picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke due to his wrestling advantage and durability concerns with Steve Garcia. He notes Garcia has been dropped multiple times in recent fights, questioning his chin. He believes Nuerdanbieke can mix takedowns and control the fight, potentially winning by decision or even knocking out Garcia. He predicts a decision win for Nuerdanbieke.
Cody also picks Garcia, agreeing with Paul's reasoning. He notes Garcia's improvements and power, and that Nuerdanbieke's wrestling may not be enough to control Garcia. Cody mentions that Garcia has never been taken down in the UFC. He is cautious but sees value at +155. He says he took a shot on Garcia but warns it's a risky bet.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nuerdanbieke. He notes that Garcia is fun and dangerous but his path to win leads him into his opponent's offense.
Jacob is confident in Shayilan, noting that he trusts his chin more and believes he has the wrestling to slow down Steve Garcia's pressure. He thinks Garcia will come out aggressively, but Shayilan can counter him or take him down. He mentions that Garcia gets dropped often, so Shayilan has a good chance of a knockout. However, he wouldn't bet it because Garcia is a dangerous opponent who risks it all.
Nuerdanbieke uses his stocky frame to grind opponents with takedowns and top pressure, but his striking is wild and he slows down. Garcia has knockout power and unorthodox angles, but his consistency is questionable. I'm skeptical but think the grappling-heavy fighter is the smarter pick, though I have low confidence due to Garcia's power and unknowns.
Paul picks Garcia but with very low confidence. He notes Garcia's tendency to run into punches and get dropped, but believes Nuerdanbieke is not a power puncher and relies on wrestling. Paul argues that Garcia has good takedown defense and power, and that Nuerdanbieke's low striking output could lead to a decision loss if he can't hold Garcia down. He also mentions the Florida crowd may favor Garcia's aggression. He calls it a 'fool pick of the week' and warns not to bet much.
The MMA Guru picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke to win by 29-28 decision. He expects Nuerdanbieke to get a takedown in the first round, control the grappling, and mix in strikes. He thinks Garcia will have some success on the feet in the third round but not enough to overcome the earlier rounds. The prediction is detailed with round-by-round scenarios.
Zane picks Nuerdanbieke because Garcia has terrible wrestling defense and Nuerdanbieke is persistent and strong. He notes that Nuerdanbieke will work hard and take Garcia down, which is too much of a hole for Garcia to overcome.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!