UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 Next Fight
Age 33
Height 6' 3"
Reach 81.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 39
Height 6' 0"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Kevin Holland
4.26 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
3.22 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
0.83 TD Avg
39.0% TD Acc.
56.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Santiago Ponzinibbio
4.78 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
4.68 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
0.6 TD Avg
27.0% TD Acc.
71.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Kevin Holland
Moneyline
BetRivers -250
KO/TKO
BetRivers +200
Submission
BetRivers +800
Decision
FanDuel +260
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Moneyline
FanDuel +215
KO/TKO
BetWay +700
Submission
BetWay +2000
Decision
BetRivers +650
Kevin Holland - Fight History
SCHED vs Jacobe Smith
UFC Fight Night 281 · Jul 18, 2026
WIN vs Randy Brown
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Holland 0 56 of 91 61% 137 of 176 0 of 3 0% 2 0 4:05
Randy Brown 0 46 of 95 48% 67 of 121 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Holland 0 20 of 34 58% 48 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:41
Randy Brown 0 18 of 39 46% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kevin Holland 0 19 of 31 61% 25 of 37 0 of 2 0% 2 0 1:42
Randy Brown 0 14 of 26 53% 19 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:18
3 Kevin Holland 0 17 of 26 65% 64 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Randy Brown 0 14 of 30 46% 25 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Holland 56 of 91 61% 24 of 55 10 of 11 22 of 25 39 of 68 11 of 15 6 of 8
Randy Brown 46 of 95 48% 25 of 65 14 of 17 7 of 13 31 of 75 12 of 17 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Holland 20 of 34 58% 9 of 20 1 of 1 10 of 13 14 of 26 0 of 0 6 of 8
Randy Brown 18 of 39 46% 8 of 26 5 of 5 5 of 8 14 of 35 1 of 1 3 of 3
2 Kevin Holland 19 of 31 61% 6 of 18 4 of 4 9 of 9 16 of 27 3 of 4 0 of 0
Randy Brown 14 of 26 53% 8 of 15 5 of 8 1 of 3 10 of 21 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Kevin Holland 17 of 26 65% 9 of 17 5 of 6 3 of 3 9 of 15 8 of 11 0 of 0
Randy Brown 14 of 30 46% 9 of 24 4 of 4 1 of 2 7 of 19 7 of 11 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo picks Randy Brown, expressing frustration with Kevin Holland's unreliability and lack of care. He believes Brown is better everywhere, more serious, and has more power. He ends the cycle of picking Holland with caveats, stating Brown is the clear choice.

"I'm not picking his ass. There's no caveat, there's no [ __ ] I am not picking him. Randy is the better fighter. I think he's literally better everywhere."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Big Brady is done with Kevin Holland due to his poor fight IQ and inconsistency. He thinks Randy Brown is the more skilled striker and will outstrike Holland, but worries about Brown's chin (recent KO losses). He expects a striking match and picks Brown by decision, but will not bet on the fight.

decision
"I'm going to go with Randy Brown here... give me Randy Brown. Randy Brown by decision in this one."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody also picks Brown, noting Holland's one-foot-in-one-foot-out mentality and Brown's speed advantage. He thinks Brown's desire and game plan will edge out a close fight.

"I got Brown as well... Randy Brown's still going for it. Randy Brown's still willing to engage hard if need be and maybe just fights with a little bit more of a game plan."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

Connor picks Randy Brown because Kevin Holland is cooked and doesn't care about fighting anymore. He notes that Holland is a goofy, messy fighter who doesn't want to do the right things, while Brown is capable of impressive performances despite occasional dumb mistakes. He expects a fun fight but trusts Brown's ability to outwork Holland.

"I have to pick Randy Brown. I know some point in this fight, Randy Brown's going to make a really dumb mistake that will almost get him killed. But Kevin Holland might be too busy goofing around to actually take …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel is on the 'Fade Kevin Holland' tour, citing Holland's poor mentality and fight IQ. He thinks Brown will care more and perform better under less pressure.

"The fade Kevin Holland world tour rolls on, my friends. ... I'm going to pick Randy Brown to win this fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel Vreeland picks Randy Brown as part of the 'fade Kevin Holland world tour.' He believes Holland lacks motivation and fight IQ, while Brown is more focused and has the tools to outpoint him. He notes that Brown's jab and technical striking should be enough to win a decision or even get a finish.

"I got Randy Brown here. I don't know how he's going to do it. And even if Randy Brown loses, we're fading Kevin Holland his very next fight, too."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

James picks Kevin Holland, believing he has more power and durability, and will come on as the fight progresses. He notes Brown may start well but expects Holland to find his rhythm.

"Kevin Holland is my official prediction. I will say I'll say submission, but I really don't know."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Brown is the better technical striker with a huge reach advantage. Holland's ego may lead him to strike with Brown, which is a mistake. Brown can pick Holland apart from distance and has good defensive grappling to avoid Holland's submissions. Holland's recent losses show he struggles against disciplined strikers. Brown should win a decision or even get a finish.

Brown wins by decision
"I'm going to go Brown here. I'm going to go Brown by decision. Uh and I think this minus 13 line is a damn good line to shoot on as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Paul picks Brown, citing Holland's declining desire and Brown's speed and crisp striking. He thinks Brown's jab and right hand will be effective against the similar-framed Holland.

"I got Brown as well, but I can't say that there's any really good reason behind it... I feel like Randy Brown's just got a little more desire, a little more left in the tank."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown over Kevin Holland. He thinks Brown will fight on the outside with low kicks and body shots, while Holland is an opportunist who doesn't follow game plans. He notes Brown's chin is suspect but believes he can win a 29-28 decision, possibly with Holland taking a close round.

"I'm going to go with Randy Brown here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

Zane picks Randy Brown, agreeing that Kevin Holland is cooked and doesn't care about fighting. He notes that Holland is a mercenary who fights for money and has no goal other than getting paid, while Brown is more focused and capable. He expects a fun fight but trusts Brown to win.

"Same Randy Brown. At least the maddening thing about him is that he is always capable of being a fighter that you're really impressed by Kevin Holland. I don't think is he's becoming less and less capable of being a …"
LOSS vs Mike Malott
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen · Oct 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Holland 0 52 of 137 37% 76 of 162 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Mike Malott 0 49 of 95 51% 50 of 99 1 of 4 25% 1 1 2:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Holland 0 9 of 31 29% 22 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Mike Malott 0 12 of 29 41% 13 of 33 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:30
2 Kevin Holland 0 23 of 70 32% 23 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mike Malott 0 26 of 42 61% 26 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Kevin Holland 0 20 of 36 55% 31 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mike Malott 0 11 of 24 45% 11 of 24 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Holland 52 of 137 37% 23 of 96 9 of 13 20 of 28 49 of 127 3 of 9 0 of 1
Mike Malott 49 of 95 51% 35 of 73 10 of 15 4 of 7 44 of 88 1 of 3 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Holland 9 of 31 29% 3 of 22 3 of 5 3 of 4 8 of 26 1 of 4 0 of 1
Mike Malott 12 of 29 41% 8 of 20 1 of 3 3 of 6 11 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Kevin Holland 23 of 70 32% 12 of 55 3 of 4 8 of 11 22 of 68 1 of 2 0 of 0
Mike Malott 26 of 42 61% 17 of 32 8 of 9 1 of 1 26 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Kevin Holland 20 of 36 55% 8 of 19 3 of 4 9 of 13 19 of 33 1 of 3 0 of 0
Mike Malott 11 of 24 45% 10 of 21 1 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 18 0 of 2 4 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Mike Malott
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Malott (-115); Holland (+100)

Round 1
The co-main event comes in the form of what should be an all-action welterweight affair that could have a little something for everybody. The fan-favorite Holland (28-14, 1 NC; 15-11, 1 NC UFC) will have to be the villain tonight as he goes into hostile territory to take on the last Canadian-born fighter on the night in Malott (12-2-1, 5-1 UFC). The two will hunt for bonus cash—and there is steep competition tonight—while regionally unpopular referee Dan Miragliotta watches on. Holland tries fairly hard to get a glove touch, but the Canadian wants nothing to do with it.
Holland puts his hand down and his foot up, to start kicking Malott in the lead leg. Malott is struggling to get in on the longer Holland, so Holland can pepper his front leg on either side without worrying about something coming back. When Malott responds with his own leg kick, Holland hops and swats out a left hand. The two appear to clash heads when coming at one another, and Malott unloads with a short combination before Holland can reach him. Malott fires off a body kick, and Holland knocks him off his feet with a fierce right hand. Holland considers slamming down high-amplitude hammerfists, and he leaps on top and delivers some damage. Holland stands back up and starts punching the Canadian in the thigh. Malott hits a sneaky sweep to put Holland on his seat.
Holland fights his way back up, and when Malott tries for a mat return, Holland bends like a reed in the wind and rolls all the way through the takedown attempt to end up on top. The welterweights scramble back to their feet, and clashing kicks leads to Malott inadvertently kicking Holland in the groin. Miragliotta calls time, and Holland laughs it off and is good to go within 20 seconds. They resume, and Holland appears fine, as he reaches Malott and knocks him back with a clean left hand. “Trailblazer” leaps at his man with a right hand, and he keeps his balance when Malott wraps him up to drag him down. When they tie up, Malott drills him in the groin with a knee, and Holland is not so jovial about it as he collapses to his knees.
Miragliotta tells the replay officials that he could hear the impact of the second groin strike, and he tells Malott that he knows that it was an accident but reminds him that it was two infractions already and the second appears to have clearly compromised the Texan. Holland gets to his knees but is still clutching his groin, and he reaches in to try to adjust himself and nearly exposes himself on camera. The replay officials appear to be confused, even though it is clear on the video that there was contact on the cup. Holland tries to stand after two-and-a-half minutes, and he is frustrated that the crowd is booing him and pulls himself up to his feet all while shaking his head repeatedly. Miragliotta tells Holland to take as much time as he needs, which is a smidge over a minute remaining. Miragliotta gives Malott a stern warning for the second groin shot, with no point deduction as commentator Daniel Cormier laments there is no consistency in regards to officiating these days with a fighter earlier losing a point from the first foul. Holland tries as hard as he can to shake off the injury, and he tells Miragliotta he is good to go 15 seconds later than stoppage time.
He is still in serious pain, and he takes more time to tap gloves with Malott and backpedals. Holland still adjusts his cup while dodging swings aimed at his head, and Malott allows him to recover even longer before going at him with a right hand and a head kick that are out of range. Holland gets up close to deliver an uppercut, and he bounces back in pain. Holland walks off before time elapses, and Malott throws his hands in the air out of frustration. The round ends with Holland suffering greatly, and it’s anyone’s guess what will happen between rounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott

Round 2
Miragliotta calls in the doctor between rounds to check on Holland, who has not yet recovered. The doctor tells Holland that he will have to stop the fight if Holland cannot keep going, and again confusion and chaos is about as they are trying to ask him if he is able to continue. Holland doesn’t say yes or no, and instead grimaces in pain and adjusts himself. As he waits, eventually someone signals that he can keep going and that he cannot keep taking more time. The minute break may have been doubled based on that. Holland flashes his jab to keep his range and not let the Canadian to get him as he still tries to bounce around and relieve the pressure. Malott tosses out a half-hearted front kick, and Holland responds with a heavier one. Malott opens up with a flurry of fists, and Holland shoulder rolls them and takes a body kick. He keeps being his jab, and wings a clubbing right that is easily blocked, unable to put much power behind his punches. He ducks a takedown attempt and scoops a left around the guard to surprise his opponent. Holland swats out with lefts, and Malott tags him with a right hand. Malott’s front kick reaches the target of the jaw, and the replies from “Trailblazer” are a front kick and one to the calf.
The Texan narrowly avoids a left hand and pitches out a side kick, and they crack one another with simultaneous right hands. Holland slips back, and a front kick brushes the top of Malott’s shorts. Holland takes a heavy left hand and gathers his thoughts, sticking Malott with a low kick and a front kick. Holland sits down on a crisp right hand, and Malott walks through it. Holland adjusts his athletic support that is still bothering him, and a clinch leads to nowhere so they split up. Malott walks Holland down and decks him with several punches and a knee, and Holland rebounds off the fencing and fires back with a right hand to keep Malott honest. Holland tries for a one-two, and he is intercepted on the way out. Holland bloodies the Canadian’s nose with a jab and an uppercut that follows, and Malott tries to drive him back with a front kick but is elbowed for his handiwork. The round ends with Malott’s nose positively gushing blood.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott

Round 3
Holland is still messed up from the groin shots, and tells Malott to keep things clean. They get down to it, with scores possibly two up for Malott or all tied up. Malott jabs the body with his toes outstretched, and Holland chips at his front leg a few times before darting him behind two left hands. Malott counters him up top, and lets Holland throw a kick to go for a big left hand. Holland re-opens Malott’s nose with jabs, and Malott takes a deep breath and blitzes forward. Holland keeps himself largely clear of danger, although the Canadian catches him with a few strikes. Holland’s own offense bounds off the guard, other than a stomping kick to the knee that briefly hyperextends it. Malott reaches out with a push kick to the upper chest, and Holland’s response is to the calf. Holland scores a single right hand and leans back from the obligatory counter, and Malott slides to the side and gets off a side kick and one high. Holland scoots his way forward and eats a few punches.
Holland lands a one-two, and Malott appears to get his attention as Holland bends over and briefly considers a takedown. He bails on it to stand up and further bloody up the Canadian. Malott runs at his opponent and lifts him off the ground, and Holland’s arm goes out of the cage as he apologizes and says he is not grabbing anything but just has long arms. Malott pulls him back inside and down flat on his back, and he smothers “Trailblazer” and bashes him with right hands. Holland uses upkicks and butterfly hooks to frame off, only for Malott to slice through and climb into half guard with 60 seconds remaining. Malott threatens with an arm-triangle choke, stepping over to full mount and then to the side to complete the submission. The ultra-slippery Holland reverse-somersaults to somehow get out of the submission, and he worms his way back to his feet with Malott right after him. The Canadian bullies him to the wire, and looks for a mat return to wrap things up. Instead, he elbows Holland once, and they shake hands after time expires with no bad blood between them. That was certainly a fight of all time.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malott (29-28 Malott)
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Malott (29-28 Malott)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott (30-27 Malott)

The Official Result
Mike Malott def. Kevin Holland via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mike Malott

Angelo picks Mike Malott, citing his high fight IQ, technical improvements after the Magny loss, and well-rounded skills. He criticizes Kevin Holland's inconsistency and poor performance against Daniel Rodriguez, calling it an all-time low. He trusts Malott's control and power.

"I got to go with Mike Malott."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mike Malott

Big Brady has zero trust in Kevin Holland after his loss to Daniel Rodriguez, calling him a dumbass and declining. He questions Malott's durability and cardio but picks him by default. He predicts Malott takes Holland down and submits him, noting Holland's ground game stinks.

Malott by submission
"I'm going to pick Mike Malott. I'm gonna pick Mike Malot to win this fight by submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Cody picks Malott, citing Kevin Holland's recent durability issues and high fight frequency. He notes Holland was knocked down twice by Daniel Rodriguez, a sign of declining chin. Malott has a wrestling advantage and can mix takedowns with striking. Cody believes Malott will win by decision or late stoppage, especially with home crowd support.

"I'm not going to take Kevin Holland. I'm going to go with Mike Malot."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mike Malott

Connor picks Malott, emphasizing that Holland cannot be trusted to fight disciplined. He notes that Malott is proficient and consistent, with sharp boxing in the pocket. Connor points out that Holland's approach of 'having fun' leads to messy fights, and his chin may be deteriorating after getting hurt by Daniel Rodriguez. He believes Malott can outwork Holland.

Odds: Holland opened at +130, currently -110; Malott opened at -150, currently -110.
"I definitely have a lot more faith in Mike Molotu fight a smart fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Oct 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Mike Malott

James admits he has a poor track record betting on Malott fights but picks Malott due to his skill set and potential improvements after the Neil Magny loss. He questions Kevin Holland's recent form and durability, noting Holland's poor performance against Daniel Rodriguez. James expects a slow-paced fight and predicts Malott via decision, though he is not confident.

"I will pick Mike Malot in this fight. I think that he's still coming into his own. I think he may have improved after that Neil Magny fight. I think he might manage his cardio a little bit better. I …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Holland

The host thinks this is a tough stylistic matchup for Malott. He believes Holland can pick Malott apart from distance with his speed, range, and distance work, and will eventually find a big shot to put Malott away.

win by knockout
"I think Holland can really pick apart Melot from distance and Meot on paper is a better skill for skill fighter than Holland but I just don't think he can keep up with the speed, range or distance work of …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Paul picks Holland, arguing that the D-Rod fight was on short notice and Holland has had three months to prepare. He believes Holland's length and reach advantage will be key, and that Malott may gas as he did against Magny. Paul sees value in Holland as a dog and plans to bet him.

"Holland Holland's the pick for me at a pick on price."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mike Malott

The MMA Guru picks Mike Malott over Kevin Holland. He notes Malott's submission skills and takedowns, and his game plan against Neil Magny. He criticizes Holland's inconsistency and chin issues. He predicts Malott will chew at the leg, get takedowns, and finish by arm triangle submission in round two.

arm triangle submission in round two
"I'm going with Mike Malott, and I'm going to take Mike Malott by arm triangle submission."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mike Malott

Zane picks Malott, citing his composure, defensive soundness, and ability to pick targets. He notes that Malott can outwrestle Holland and kick his legs. Zane is concerned about Holland's inconsistency and recent poor performance against Daniel Rodriguez, where Holland made terrible errors and got hurt. He believes Malott will fight a smart fight.

Odds: Holland opened at +130, currently -110; Malott opened at -150, currently -110.
"So yeah, I'll take Molot over Holland, but it's not a bad test from a lot."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Rodriguez 1 82 of 173 47% 111 of 207 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:07
Kevin Holland 2 77 of 149 51% 111 of 189 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Rodriguez 0 40 of 83 48% 40 of 83 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Kevin Holland 0 29 of 60 48% 32 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Daniel Rodriguez 0 12 of 28 42% 34 of 51 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:05
Kevin Holland 2 31 of 55 56% 44 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:40
3 Daniel Rodriguez 1 30 of 62 48% 37 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:50
Kevin Holland 0 17 of 34 50% 35 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Rodriguez 82 of 173 47% 53 of 126 13 of 22 16 of 25 60 of 137 17 of 27 5 of 9
Kevin Holland 77 of 149 51% 49 of 106 13 of 26 15 of 17 54 of 107 6 of 7 17 of 35
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Rodriguez 40 of 83 48% 20 of 50 6 of 12 14 of 21 39 of 81 1 of 2 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 29 of 60 48% 12 of 30 8 of 19 9 of 11 28 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Daniel Rodriguez 12 of 28 42% 8 of 21 3 of 4 1 of 3 7 of 21 4 of 6 1 of 1
Kevin Holland 31 of 55 56% 27 of 51 1 of 1 3 of 3 12 of 22 5 of 6 14 of 27
3 Daniel Rodriguez 30 of 62 48% 25 of 55 4 of 6 1 of 1 14 of 35 12 of 19 4 of 8
Kevin Holland 17 of 34 50% 10 of 25 4 of 6 3 of 3 14 of 26 0 of 0 3 of 8
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-395), Rodriguez (+310)

Round 1
The busiest athlete in the company these days, Holland (28-13, 1 NC; 15-10, 1 NC UFC) is entering into his fourth fight of the year in the middle of July. Looking for his third win in a row, he tangles with 10th Planet rep Rodriguez (19-5, 9-4 UFC), who is also doing the same. One of their streaks must end in the next three rounds or fewer, and referee Mike Beltran will be the first to know. Possibly a victory or two from reaching the top 10, the welterweights bump fists knowing this could be the start of something significant.
Holland immediately starts talking, asking Rodriguez if he is a winner. Rodriguez ignores him and comes out swinging, hurling his left hook several times at “Trailblazer.” Holland springs out of the way and circles away to not get caught with anything noteworthy, and he stays on the outside slamming kicks to Rodriguez’ front leg. Rodriguez blitzes his opponent, and Holland grabs hold of him and turns him around in the clinch. Rodriguez breaks free, and once again he is faced with the taller, longer man reaching his kicks at him. The two get tied up again, and they both let hands fly for a moment. Rodriguez reaches with his left, and he parries a head kick that comes up in a hurry. Holland jabs the body with the ball of his foot, and Rodriguez retaliates with a chopping calf kick. Rodriguez lands a low kick, and Holland recoils his limb and wings it back at his foe. Both fighters attack the body, and then trade low kicks.
Holland tags his foe at the end of a right hand and a quick left, which sets up three more punches over the top. Holland clips Rodriguez with an overhand right, and a foul is ignored as both men just want to trade. Holland turns his hips and busts Rodriguez in the chops with a side kick, and he is quick to have to defend an oncoming Rodriguez who throws hard at him. Both fighters appear to graze the cup with kicks, and Holland rolls with a combo and dings Rodriguez with a right hand on the forehead. The Californian grits his teeth and connects with a left hook that destabilizes his opponent. Holland gets up and rushes backwards to the fence to recover, doing so long enough to get his bearings again. When he reengages, Holland takes a jab on the chin and still manages to get Rodriguez with an elbow. Rodriguez lands a big left, and Holland chains several punches together to get him back. Rodriguez puts hands on the Texan once more, and he blocks a head kick in the nick of time. Two more kicks to the body from “Trailblazer” wrap up the first round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 2
The welterweights touch gloves to get started in the second stanza, and Rodriguez aims to the front leg first as Holland tries to check it. Holland defends a combination of punches by trying to tie Rodriguez up, and Rodriguez is able to shuck him off and punch him square in the face. Rodriguez measures a big left hand that rocks “Trailblazer,” who goes down in a heap. Rodriguez jumps on top of his wounded opponent, laying into him with ground-and-pound until he advances to side control. Rather than do anything further on the mat, Rodriguez backs off and makes Holland stand. Holland is quick to shoot for a double, and Rodriguez tosses him aside and bludgeons him with more big hammers. “D-Rod” knocks Holland to his seat a second time, pouncing to get into the guard so he can try to finish the job. Rodriguez passes to half guard, slugging Holland into the face every so often while Holland looks to control the wrist. Holland thinks about a guillotine choke off his back, but Rodriguez punches his way out of it.
Holland tries to isolate an arm for an armbar setup, and Rodriguez breaks out of it and stands. Holland follows him and blasts him in the face with a right hand, only for Rodriguez to tank it and swing back fearlessly. Holland scores hard again with an overhand right, and Rodriguez ignores it and comes back swinging. The Texan ducks under and hits a double, putting Rodriguez flat on his back with about 100 seconds to go. Holland stays tightly pressed on Rodriguez while in half guard, and he attacks the body and head when sitting up. Rodriguez tries to sit up too, and Holland has a trap for him in the form of a slick brabo choke. Rodriguez, the jiu-jitsu practitioner, shakes off the choke but is drilled with a left hand and an elbow. Holland shoots for another takedown, pushing Rodriguez to the fence and falling into a guillotine choke. Holland stands up to get out of it, his face bloodied, and he does not care as he smacks Rodriguez with a jump knee. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 3
The fighters share a last glove touch and get right to business. Rodriguez floats a low kick, darting away when Holland advances with body shots. Rodriguez swipes his way forward with a left to the liver, and he has a one-two bash Holland on the side of the head. Holland whiffs on a right hand up top and a head kick on the same side, and he sways back as Rodriguez gives chase. Rodriguez blitzes his opponent, clacking heads with his opponent on the way in. Rodriguez goes the body, prompting Holland to go straight at him with fists flying. Rodriguez beats the Texan to the punch, until Holland grits his teeth and knocks Rodriguez clean off his feet with a short but nasty uppercut. Rodriguez survives the ground strikes when hitting the ground to stand back up, and Holland wraps up a standing brabo choke. Rodriguez breaks out of it, and Holland attacks with the fury of a thousand suns. Battering Rodriguez with winging punches, jump knees, mean-spirited uppercuts and anything else he can offer, Holland has Rodriguez on the ropes. Rodriguez throws back with bad intentions, and Holland’s knee rocks him to his core.
A desperate Rodriguez tries to take the fight down, and Holland hurls him to his knees and is quick to force a back take. Holland wraps up a rear-naked choke but it is around the side, and Rodriguez is able to slide out of it and push past a triangle choke. Holland uses a high guard to hold on with a triangle choke that is more of a high guard than anything, and Rodriguez grabs the fence to get out of it. Beltran slaps his hands out of the cage grab, and Rodriguez advances to side control and then full mount with a minute to go. Rodriguez starts raining down a bombardment of punches, with Holland pushing off the cage wall with his feet while shelling up to guard his face. Holland rolls all the way over and shoots for a takedown of his own, and Rodriguez defends with a power guillotine choke and pushes Holland over to his back. “D-Rod” reassumes full mount after releasing the choke, sitting up to smack Holland around until time expires. This could have used two more rounds, as the crowd goes wild after 15 titillating minutes of magnificent melee.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)

The Official Result
Daniel Rodriguez def. Kevin Holland via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Angelo picks Kevin Holland, citing his speed, power, and accuracy at welterweight. He notes that Daniel Rodriguez is a pure boxer with no takedown threat, so Holland's takedown defense won't be tested. He expects Holland to run through Rodriguez.

"Kevin Holland absolutely smokes here. He's faster, he's cleaner, he's more powerful."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady confidently picks Kevin Holland, noting Rodriguez's age (38), recent poor performances, and lack of wrestling. He believes Holland's height, reach, and power will lead to a first-round knockout. He dismisses Rodriguez's prison fight experience as irrelevant.

Holland by first round knockout
"Give me Kevin Holland to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Connor picks Holland because he is significantly faster than Rodriguez, who appears slower than ever. He notes that Holland always has a high work rate even in his worst performances, while Rodriguez's recent wins have come against equally old and beatable opponents. He sees this as a straightforward win for Holland.

"I have to pick Kevin Holland. No matter what."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The host sees this as a great stylistic matchup for Holland, expecting him to pick apart Rodriguez from distance and utilize his speed and stinging power to line up a knockout.

knockout
"I expect him to pick apart Rodriguez from distance and I think he can utilize his speed and stinging power to eventually line up a knockout getting that victory over Daniel Rodriguez."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland over Daniel Rodriguez, predicting a decision win. He notes Holland's durability, reach advantage (7 inches), and better cardio, while Rodriguez is described as a scrapper with bad fight IQ. The Guru believes Holland will out-point Rodriguez over three rounds, possibly with a late finish, but expects it to go the distance. He also mentions a prop bet that the fight will last more than 10 minutes.

Fight lasts more than 10 minutes (prop bet mentioned earlier in transcript)
"I'm going to go with Kevin Holland over Daniel Rodriguez."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Zane agrees with Connor, stating that Holland is significantly faster and that Rodriguez's recent performances against older fighters show he is not a threat. He notes that Holland's worst performances still have high work rate, making him a safe pick.

"It just feels like a shoe-in for Kevin Holland."
WIN vs Vicente Luque
Submission R2 1:03 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vicente Luque 0 24 of 46 52% 24 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 40 of 74 54% 44 of 78 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vicente Luque 0 22 of 40 55% 22 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 35 of 64 54% 39 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Vicente Luque 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vicente Luque 24 of 46 52% 14 of 32 3 of 6 7 of 8 24 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 40 of 74 54% 25 of 58 5 of 6 10 of 10 26 of 56 14 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vicente Luque 22 of 40 55% 13 of 28 3 of 5 6 of 7 22 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 35 of 64 54% 23 of 51 5 of 6 7 of 7 21 of 46 14 of 18 0 of 0
2 Vicente Luque 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 5 of 10 50% 2 of 7 0 of 0 3 of 3 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Vicente Luque
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-265), Luque (+215)

Round 1
The referee for our main card opener is Keith Peterson. Luque takes the center of the Octagon, while Holland is already talking. Luque catches a kick, but Holland lands a half-dozen punches and makes his opponent pay for just standing there. A left hook from Luque hits the shoulder of Holland. Luque follows up a left hook with a nice leg kick. Holland lands a nice elbow that hurts Luque, who fires back with an overhand that keeps Holland from pressuring. Luque lands a double jab, which isn't enough to keep Holland from talking every second of this fight. There is a huge knot on the side of Luque's head where the elbow landed. It looks nasty. Luque stuns Holland with a left hook, but Holland responds nicely by slipping a punch and landing a right hook. Nice jab to the body by Holland. Luque lands a leg kick, which allows Holland to land a right hand. High kick from Holland is blocked.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Holland

Round 2
The round starts with Holland missing a huge right hook. Luque is struggling with the length of Holland, who is able to attack from a distance. Holland catches a kick from Luque and pushes him to the ground. Luque tries to get up, but Holland sinks in a brabo choke. It looks tight, and Luque is forced to tap.

The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Vicente Luque via Submission (Brabo Choke); R2, 1:03.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Angelo picks Vicente Luque over Kevin Holland because he trusts Vicente to execute a game plan, while Kevin is unreliable with poor takedown defense and a lack of care. He notes Kevin's takedown defense is still poor despite his length and jiu-jitsu. He thinks even a fraction of Vicente's wrestling from the Dos Anjos fight will be enough.

"Vicente Luc is going to be the pick. At least you can trust him to do what he's supposed to do."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady is very confident in Kevin Holland, citing Luque's recent durability issues and quitting in his last fight. He believes Luque will try to wrestle but Holland is hard to wrestle at welterweight. He expects the fight to stay on the feet where Holland will hurt Luque and knock him out early, possibly in the first round. He notes Luque's brain hemorrhage and that he shouldn't be fighting.

Holland by KO in round 1
"I think Kevin Holland knocks out Lu and I think he does it in the very first round."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Holland. He emphasizes that Luque has slowed down and his reactions are worse, while Holland is still physically sharp. Connor notes that Holland's best performances come when he is not forced to pressure, and Luque's forward pressure will allow Holland to counter effectively. He sees this as a winnable matchup for Holland.

Odds: Holland -258, Luque +122. Connor thinks the line is fair.
"I also think this was a very winnable matchup for Kevin Holland."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The host went back and forth on this fight. He ultimately sticks with Kevin Holland winning by knockout due to his speed and power, but notes that Vicente Luque is a very live underdog, especially if he can get takedowns and use his submission game.

Luque is a live underdog; Holland by KO
"I will stick with my prediction of Kevin Holland winning by knockout. But I think Vicente Luc is a very live underdog, especially if he can get to his takedowns and showcase his slick submission game as we've seen in …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland, despite being a big fan of Luque. He believes Holland's range and volume will be key, as Luque struggles against fighters who stay at range and don't overcommit. He notes Holland's durability and ability to fight from bottom. He predicts a decision win for Holland, possibly 29-28, with Luque winning a round.

Finish prediction: decision win.
"I think Holland wins this one though, man. It's hard to get to Holland's chin moving forward..."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Zane picks Kevin Holland, noting that when Holland fights on the back foot he uses his jab effectively and looks like a complete boxer. He believes Luque's slower reactions and declining chin will be exploited by Holland's reach and counterpunching. Zane thinks this matchup favors Holland's style, similar to his win over Jack Della Maddalena.

Odds: Holland -258, Luque +122. Zane thinks the line is reasonable.
"I think he'll win."
WIN vs Gunnar Nelson
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gunnar Nelson 0 15 of 24 62% 30 of 44 3 of 10 30% 1 0 9:29
Kevin Holland 1 55 of 89 61% 138 of 178 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gunnar Nelson 0 5 of 9 55% 13 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:55
Kevin Holland 1 19 of 37 51% 31 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
2 Gunnar Nelson 0 3 of 6 50% 7 of 11 1 of 5 20% 0 0 3:22
Kevin Holland 0 17 of 23 73% 73 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
3 Gunnar Nelson 0 7 of 9 77% 10 of 13 1 of 4 25% 1 0 3:12
Kevin Holland 0 19 of 29 65% 34 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gunnar Nelson 15 of 24 62% 10 of 19 4 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 7 7 of 8 6 of 9
Kevin Holland 55 of 89 61% 30 of 57 15 of 20 10 of 12 15 of 34 22 of 27 18 of 28
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gunnar Nelson 5 of 9 55% 3 of 7 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 4
Kevin Holland 19 of 37 51% 10 of 24 3 of 5 6 of 8 9 of 20 4 of 4 6 of 13
2 Gunnar Nelson 3 of 6 50% 1 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 1
Kevin Holland 17 of 23 73% 9 of 15 6 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 7 6 of 7 8 of 9
3 Gunnar Nelson 7 of 9 77% 6 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 5 3 of 4
Kevin Holland 19 of 29 65% 11 of 18 6 of 9 2 of 2 3 of 7 12 of 16 4 of 6
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Gunnar Nelson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nelson (-130), Holland (+110)

Round 1
Dan Movahedi will referee Nelson’s first fight since March 2023. Holland opens with a pair of inside leg kicks. Nelson is operating from his usual karate stance. Another leg kick for Holland, who has a significant reach edge. Nelson tries to charge in, but he’s rebuffed by Holland. Holland with a long jab and right hand. Nelson shoots and gets Holland down. Holland is active from his back, threatening with submissions, but Nelson is a savvy grappler. Nelson stands and picks Holland up with one arm and both fighters share a laugh. Nelson goes back to work from above, but he’ll have to navigate his foe’s long limbs. Holland is landing hammerfists from his bck on occasion. Nelson with a solid right from top position. Holland lands an elbow from his back. Nelson is struggling to find openings for offense from above. The Iceland native drops a short elbow. Nelson stands and has to worry about Holland’s upkicks before moving back on top. They stand late in the round, and Holland drops Nelson with a one-two. He hovers over Nelson and drops heavy standing to ground shots. Nelson is saved by the horn, but Holland might've landed one after the buzzer.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland

Round 2
Holland is aggressive, and he punches his way into the clinch behind an uppercut. Holland with a knee and a foot stomp. They separate and size each other up from range. Holland with a solid inside low kick. Holland is measuring the right hand that dropped Nelson in Round 1. Nelson is working hard for a takedown, but Holland is able to stay upright. Nelson adjusts against the fence, but Holland maintains his footing. Nelson is clinging to the leg, and Holland stays busy with short strikes. Nelson pulls Holland off the fence and drags him to the canvas with about 2:00 to go. Nelson is in top position, but Holland is active again, both with his guard and strikes from his back. Nelson is simply holding position as Holland continues to work from his back. Holland with an upkick as Nelson stands. Nelson works his way back into full guard as the round draws to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland

Round 3
Holland chips away at the legs of Nelson before they collide in the clinch. Holland lands a knee in close. Nelson counters with uppercuts, but another Holland knee gets through. Nelson decides against continuing to trade offense in the clinch, and he changes levels for a takedown. Nelson moves into full mount with ease. Holland kicks off the fence to remove Nelson from mount, but the grappling ace is still in top position. Holland is warned to remove his toes from the cage. Nelson absorbs a series of heel strikes to to the head. He responds by dropping a right from above. Nelson transitions to an arm triangle during a scramble. He’s close to the cage, but it looks pretty deep. Holland looks comfortable for now, and he’s able to eventually escape to his feet. Holland pushes Nelson into the fence. Nelson is looking at the clock now. Holland with a knee to the midsection. Back at range, Holland connects with a front kick. Nelson closes the distance but eats another knee for his efforts. Holland denies a takedown and the welterweights battle in the clinch. Holland breaks free and falls to his back after missing on a knee before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (29-28 Holland)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (29-28 Holland)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (29-28 Holland)

The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Gunnar Nelson via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Angelo picks Kevin Holland despite his poor takedown defense, arguing that skill-wise Holland is the better fighter. He notes that Holland is likely fighting for his job at welterweight and will be motivated. He criticizes Gunnar Nelson's inactivity (2 years), poor striking differential, and lack of wins over active UFC fighters. He has a small bet on Holland.

Small bet on Kevin Holland
"I am going to pick Kevin and I know his takedown defense is worse than my six-year-old daughter's... but damn it at times he's a good fighter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Brady is very hesitant but picks Holland, calling it 'One Last Ride'. He notes Nelson is 36, inactive (2 fights in 5 years), has no striking, and is coming off a 2-year layoff. Holland has an astronomical striking advantage and is fighting at welterweight where he belongs. Brady predicts a second-round knockout.

Holland by KO round 2
"One Last Ride Kevin Holland don't let me down knock this guy out give me Kevin Holland to win this fight and win this fight by second round knock out"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nelson. He highlights Holland's inability to wrestle seriously and his tendency to fall apart when pressured. Nelson's striking, though limited, will force Holland to close distance, leading to takedowns and submissions. Connor is confident Nelson will look the same despite the layoff.

Nelson opened at -133, currently -120; Holland opened at +102, currently +107.
"Yeah, I mean I just feel like because of the who gunner nelson always has been as a fighter ... he'll probably look pretty much exactly the same."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

The host notes Nelson doesn't fight often but still showcases superb jiu-jitsu. He expects Nelson to get a body lock, drag the fight to the ground, find the back, and secure a submission win over Holland.

submission
"I think he'll be able to showcase that once again here, eventually getting the body lock, dragging this fight to the ground, and eventually finding the back and wrapping up a submission win over Kevin Holland."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

The Guru confidently picks Gunnar Nelson, citing his superior jiu-jitsu and takedown entries. He expects Nelson to get a takedown, take Holland's back, and secure a rear-naked choke in the first round. He notes that Holland is susceptible to grapplers and has not finished anyone early in a long time. He acknowledges a small chance Holland lands a 45-70 kick but dismisses it.

submission round 1 (rear-naked choke)
"I'm gonna have to imagine Gana Nelson gets a takedown and gets a re naked choke over Kevin Holland"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

Zane confidently picks Nelson, arguing that Holland's poor wrestling and tendency to crash forward will play directly into Nelson's strengths. Nelson's karate-style striking and elite ground game will exploit Holland's lack of takedown defense and submission awareness. He expects Holland to either get taken down and submitted or run into Nelson's clinch.

Nelson opened at -133, currently -120; Holland opened at +102, currently +107.
"If we simply go with the assumption that nelson is going to look more or less the same ... I think kevin holland is going to leap right into his hands."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:31 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Reinier de Ridder 0 11 of 13 84% 27 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 12 of 21 57% 26 of 35 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Reinier de Ridder 0 11 of 13 84% 27 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 12 of 21 57% 26 of 35 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Reinier de Ridder 11 of 13 84% 10 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 10
Kevin Holland 12 of 21 57% 11 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 12 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Reinier de Ridder 11 of 13 84% 10 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 10
Kevin Holland 12 of 21 57% 11 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 12 of 21
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: De Ridder (-112), Holland (-108)

Round 1
Striker battles grappler to kick off the main card of UFC 311, although that might be a bit of an overgeneralization considering Holland (26-12, 1 NC; 13-9, 1 NC UFC) has landed some nifty brabo chokes in recent memory. He will come to blows, and/or roll with de Ridder (18-2, 1-0 UFC, who got his feet wet in the UFC last November by outhustling savant submission specialist Gerald Meerschaert and tapping “GM3” out. Whether this fight ends by knockout, submission or something else entirely, referee Frank Trigg will be here for the middleweights every step of the way. There is a touch of gloves to get things going, and de Ridder shoots in for a single immediately. Holland hits his back and wraps a leg around the head of his opponent, setting up a triangle and nearly transitioning it to an armbar. When de Ridder lords over him, Holland drills him with surprisingly effective hammerfists from his back. De Ridder lowers himself down into the guard, thwarting any subs coming his way. De Ridder grinds down with elbows to the chest, with Holland hanging onto the wrists before flailing his legs to get some space. An upkick or two may have gotten de Ridder’s attention, but de Ridder is still on top of him. Holland starts talking to Trigg, mentioning that he took a knee to the head, and he laughs. Holland keeps striking from off his back, and de Ridder elbows him back to shred a mean cut open on his forehead. Holland sways to avoid more ground-and-pound, but the Dutch fighter drew first blood. De Ridder unloads with standing-to-ground punches, pinning Holland to his back and letting Holland scramble so he can take his back. Holland stands up, and de Ridder is on his back, but barely. Holland lowers himself down to put his arms on the mat to take some of the weight off, and he rolls through and is followed. “RDR” fastens the body triangle around the waist and locks down a rear-naked choke, and it is tight in a hurry. Holland considers taking his mouthpiece out to alleviate some of the danger, but he realizes that his goose is cooked and that the man formerly known as “The Dutch Knight” has him dead to rights. As the choke is not going anywhere, Holland has no choice but to tap out before getting put to sleep. With that clear-cut win in his pocket, de Ridder places himself in prime position for big fights ahead.

The Official Result
Reinier de Ridder def. Kevin Holland R1 3:31 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder but with hesitation. He believes de Ridder can exploit Kevin Holland's takedown defense and win via grappling. However, he worries about de Ridder's reckless ground decision-making, as seen in his UFC debut where he gave up positions. He thinks Holland's durability and jiu-jitsu could make it a decision win for de Ridder.

"I do think he wins this fight the odds are ing last time I said I thought he was going to win this fight he was a much bigger underdog now he's plus 115"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Cody picks Reinier de Ridder, citing the blueprint to beat Kevin Holland: take him down and control him. He notes that Holland struggles with wrestlers at middleweight, as seen against Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori. De Ridder is a large middleweight with strong judo and grappling, and Cody believes he will close the distance, clinch, and take Holland down repeatedly. He also points out that Holland has never faced an opponent taller than him, but de Ridder is 6'4". Cody expects a submission or dominant decision.

Mentions de Ridder may finish inside the distance with a submission. No specific odds.
"Rainer to Ritter that's exactly what he's looking to do he's not looking to have a fun striking match with you... he's looking to throw a right hand he's going to look to close that pocket get a hold of …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Connor picks de Ridder, citing his size, grappling, and ability to bait Holland into a grappling exchange. He notes that Holland's core is a BJJ player who sees wrestling as an invitation to grapple, which plays into de Ridder's strengths. Connor points out that de Ridder is huge and tough, and even though he's a poor striker, his lead hand and jab can set up takedowns. He believes Holland's poor takedown defense and tendency to engage in losing grappling battles will lead to a de Ridder win. Connor also mentions that de Ridder has only lost to massive powerhouses, which Holland is not.

Odds: de Ridder opened +132, now -105; Holland opened -147, now -105. Connor thinks de Ridder deserves to be the favorite.
"I gotta take Reinier de Ridder."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Daniel picks de Ridder, continuing his fade of Kevin Holland. He notes that de Ridder attempted 13 takedowns in his debut and believes he only needs to take Holland down once to win. Daniel thinks de Ridder will submit Holland and took him at +126 for 2 units. He mentions that Holland is a prize fighter without title aspirations, while de Ridder is hungry.

Daniel took de Ridder at +126 for 2 units. He says the fade Kevin Holland World Tour continues and expects a submission win.
"I took uh rer der rder about a week or two ago at a plus 126"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Lucrative James picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his superior grappling and jiu-jitsu, which should exploit Kevin Holland's known weakness against grapplers. He notes Holland's poor takedown defense and tendency to abandon game plans, while de Ridder's judo trips and submissions (arm triangle, rear-naked choke) are live threats. James believes de Ridder only needs a couple of takedowns to win rounds or secure a submission, and that Holland's rangy striking style plays into de Ridder's comfort zone. He also questions Holland's motivation, contrasting it with de Ridder's title aspirations.

"I'm going with the Ridder in this fight obviously it's a bit of a step up in competition from gm3 Kevin Holland is a Mainstay in the UFC but at the end of the day I don't think Kevin Holland …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The host notes de Ridder had a successful UFC debut and wants to showcase his BJJ. Holland is also a BJJ black belt with a striking advantage, but the host thinks Holland will struggle to keep de Ridder off him, leading to de Ridder finding a dominant position and getting a submission victory.

submission victory
"I think he's going to struggle to keep darer off of him which will lead to dder eventually finding a dominant position and getting a submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Paul agrees with Cody, picking de Ridder. He notes that Holland has always struggled with takedown defense at middleweight and that de Ridder's grappling should be the difference. Paul was impressed with de Ridder's submission win over Gerald Meerschaert and believes the same game plan will work against Holland. He advises de Ridder to avoid striking exchanges and lean on takedowns early and often.

No specific prop bet mentioned.
"I'm with you I'll I'll take rer the Ritter at a pick on price here as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder to submit Kevin Holland. He notes Holland is a fish out of water when taken down, and de Ridder has a massive strength advantage. He expects de Ridder to get on top and submit Holland early or in the second round. He also questions Holland's quitting tendency.

submission
"I will take Raina Dara to submit Kevin Holland early or in the second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Zane also picks de Ridder, agreeing with Connor. He emphasizes that Holland's willingness to engage in grappling exchanges will be his downfall. Zane notes that de Ridder's size and grappling ability will allow him to control the fight once it hits the mat. He points out that Holland has been taken down and controlled by lesser grapplers, and de Ridder is a significant step up. Zane also mentions that Holland's striking is inconsistent, and even if he has a good boxing performance, he'll likely abandon it for grappling.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"I'm gonna take de Ridder as well."
LOSS vs Roman Dolidze
TKO (corner stoppage) R1 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 19 of 33 57% 57 of 101 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:50
Kevin Holland 0 18 of 28 64% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 19 of 33 57% 57 of 101 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:50
Kevin Holland 0 18 of 28 64% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 19 of 33 57% 16 of 30 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 14 of 23
Kevin Holland 18 of 28 64% 5 of 13 3 of 4 10 of 11 18 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 19 of 33 57% 16 of 30 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 14 of 23
Kevin Holland 18 of 28 64% 5 of 13 3 of 4 10 of 11 18 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-162), Dolidze (+136)

Round 1
Stepping in for fellow Xtreme Couture product Chris Curtis, Dolidze (13-3, 7-3 UFC) will drop down in weight for this middleweight matchup. He stands across the cage from Holland (26-11, 1 NC; 13-8, 1 NC UFC), content to let his fists do the talking. The men that share knockout rates of 54% apiece will be joined in the cage by referee Jason Herzog. They opt to clap hands, and a front kick from Holland follows shortly thereafter. Dolidze takes the center of the cage but cannot get out of the way from two more kicks, and Holland jumps forward to reach him with a left hook around the guard. Holland slaps a pair of low kicks on the inner thigh, and he strafes around to not let Dolidze corner him. Holland’s kicks peck at the Georgian, and he chains two punches up top before landing with a leg kick. Dolidze scores a left hand, and he gets tripped up when Holland grabs hold of his kicking leg to stumble him. Dolidze resets and plods forward, and Holland uses his reach advantage to get off three punches before Dolidze hits him back. Dolidze fires back with a vengeance, and his strikes largely go wide. Holland chips at the front leg as he stays moving, and he tosses out another from the other leg. Dolidze charges like a bull, tackling Holland to the mat and putting him on his back relatively easily. Holland wraps his legs around the waist, hand-fighting to not let Dolidze hit him cleanly. Dolidze softens Holland up with ground-and-pound, landing short shots until Holland opens his guard and heel strikes the Georgian in the kidney repeatedly. The crowd turns on the ground fighting, and the fighters do little different to change their strategies. Holland goes back and forth between a body lock off his back and striking with his heel, and Dolidze is happy to slug away. Holland rolls for an armbar, and he rolls over and something awkward happens as Holland appears to be injured or compromised. Holland keeps moving, and he turns to his back as Dolidze climbs into full mount. Herzog asks for more activity, and Holland starts talking trash to Dolidze while Dolidze is busting him in the face with elbows and powerful punches. The horn sounds, and Holland stands up and points to his rib. Holland goes back to his corner, and he tells his team that he is struggling and does not want to quit. Holland’s corner asks him repeatedly if he can keep going. Holland’s coach, Kru Bob Perez, decides that Holland needs to be saved from himself to fight another day and calls the fight off. Meanwhile, the victorious Dolidze is awarded his jiu-jitsu black belt for the technical knockout victory.

The Official Result
Roman Dolidze def. Kevin Holland R1 5:00 via TKO (Corner Stoppage)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Angelo picks Roman Dolidze to win inside the distance, betting on his superior grappling. He notes Dolidze is a world champion grappler and should easily take down Kevin Holland, who has poor takedown defense. However, he expresses concern that Dolidze might not use his grappling and could get out-struck. He recommends betting 'Win inside the distance - decision no action' to mitigate risk, as Dolidze often wins by decision or finish.

Bet on Roman Dolidze inside the distance, decision no action
"Roman L is going to be the pick... I'm betting inside the distance decision no action"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Big Brady picks Roman Dolidze by submission in the second round, citing Holland's well-known weakness against wrestlers who can take him down and hold him down. He notes Dolidze is a big, strong middleweight with excellent grappling, and Holland has been submitted before. He also mentions a possible decision win if Dolidze controls with clinching and top pressure.

submission, second round
"I'm liking delit here I think um I'm going to go with delid by submission here in the second round but I I could also see a scenario where you know the Striking is competitive if not favors Holland delit …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Cody picks Holland, emphasizing his speed, reach, and volume striking. He doubts Dolidze's wrestling and BJJ effectiveness, noting Holland's takedown defense and submission skills. He believes Holland can outpoint Dolidze on the feet.

"I'm actually going to go with Kevin Holland"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Connor also picks Dolidze, agreeing that Dolidze's size and strength will be decisive. He notes that Dolidze is a nasty opportunistic grappler and that Holland's tendency to get tied up will play into Dolidze's hands. Connor thinks this is a terrible matchup for Holland and expects a dull, grinding win for Dolidze.

Same odds commentary.
"I'm gonna pick roman dulce. Yeah in a really really ugly fight really frustrating."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Daniel Vreeland picks Roman Dolidze over Kevin Holland. He notes that Dolidze is a good grappler with sharp transitions, and that Holland's weakness is being outgrappled by strong grapplers. He also criticizes Holland for fighting at middleweight, where he is undersized and gets bullied, whereas Dolidze has fought at light heavyweight and can handle the size. Vreeland believes Dolidze will get the ground game going and potentially submit Holland, though he acknowledges Holland hasn't been submitted in a while.

Dolidze by submission +1400
"I will take Roman Dolidze, I think he gets the ground game going and I know Holland hasn't been submitted in a while and I know Dolidze hasn't had a submission in a while but what do you think that …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Roman Dolidze, having bet on him at plus money. He believes Dolidze's physicality and grappling will be too much for Kevin Holland, who gives up easy takedowns. Vreeland points to common opponents like Marvin Vettori and Kyle Daukaus, where Dolidze performed better than Holland. He expects Dolidze to pin Holland against the fence, take him down, and eventually submit him.

"I think Roman Del wants the grown man this guy Pin him up against the fence makes him those takedowns I think he can do that"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Jeff Fox picks Kevin Holland but is hesitant. He notes that Holland won his last fight but didn't look good, and that he fought up a weight class. Fox is afraid Holland will get underneath his opponent on the ground and just do what he does, lying on his back. He hopes Holland doesn't do that because he's a good enough grappler not to have to, and he's the better striker. Fox acknowledges it's hard to pick Kevin Holland.

"I think Holland I'm afraid he's gonna like get underneath him on the ground and just do what he does lying on his back hopefully he does not do that because he's good enough grappling not to have to do …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Holland

The host is surprised the line is as close as it is. He believes Dolidze's reckless fighting style will lead him to be picked apart by Kevin Holland, who is quicker and more accurate with shots down the pipe. He expects good footwork, range management, and solid grappling defense from Holland to keep the fight standing and win on the scorecards.

surprised that the line is as close as it is
"I'm kind of surprised that the line is as close as it is I think the Reckless fighting style of Del will lead him into getting picked apart by Kevin Holland"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Paul picks Dolidze, citing his physicality and ability to make the fight ugly. He worries about Holland's chin and thinks Dolidze can close the distance and use his strength. He notes Dolidze's recent volume striking against Anthony Smith.

"I bet a little bit of deletes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze over Kevin Holland, citing Dolidze's chin, leg kicks, and top control. He notes Dolidze trains at altitude and is active, while Holland's late-round finishing ability is questionable at altitude. He believes Dolidze will low kick Holland and eventually get takedowns, using his size advantage. He also mentions Holland's submission threat off his back but thinks Dolidze will be cautious.

"I'm going to go Roman delzy I like Holland at welterweight I like Holland at welterweight they're a bit better down there"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Zane picks Dolidze, expecting a frustrating fight where Dolidze uses his size and strength to push Holland against the fence and tie him up. He notes that Holland tends to allow himself to be cornered and hugged by larger opponents, and Dolidze's grappling will be too much for Holland. Zane is not excited for this fight but sees Dolidze as the clear winner.

Holland opened at -142, now -137. Dolidze opened at +127, now +123. Zane is surprised Holland is favored.
"Gotta pick dulcie. He's big and strong and kevin will let him tie up and this will be that uh, you know."
Santiago Ponzinibbio - Fight History
KO R3 1:12 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · May 03, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 49 of 111 44% 50 of 115 1 of 8 12% 0 0 0:44
Daniel Rodriguez 1 66 of 166 39% 70 of 170 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 15 of 35 42% 15 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Daniel Rodriguez 0 35 of 81 43% 35 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
2 Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 27 of 60 45% 28 of 64 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:42
Daniel Rodriguez 0 22 of 63 34% 26 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniel Rodriguez 1 9 of 22 40% 9 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Santiago Ponzinibbio 49 of 111 44% 31 of 83 6 of 16 12 of 12 49 of 111 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Rodriguez 66 of 166 39% 39 of 131 20 of 25 7 of 10 64 of 164 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Santiago Ponzinibbio 15 of 35 42% 5 of 19 3 of 9 7 of 7 15 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Rodriguez 35 of 81 43% 20 of 61 13 of 16 2 of 4 34 of 80 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Santiago Ponzinibbio 27 of 60 45% 21 of 51 3 of 6 3 of 3 27 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Rodriguez 22 of 63 34% 13 of 53 6 of 6 3 of 4 22 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Santiago Ponzinibbio 7 of 16 43% 5 of 13 0 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Rodriguez 9 of 22 40% 6 of 17 1 of 3 2 of 2 8 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Angelo picks Daniel Rodriguez, expecting him to be the cleaner striker and apply forward pressure. He notes that Ponzinibbio tends to get busted up and that Rodriguez can take over after the first round. He also mentions a potential over 1.5 rounds bet if available.

Interested in over 1.5 rounds if available
"Daniel Rodriguez is the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 29, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Big Brady leans slightly toward Daniel Rodriguez in a close fight between two aging fighters. He notes that Ponzinibbio's durability is questionable, as he wobbles when hit, while Rodriguez has better volume and durability at this stage. However, both are 38 and have looked rough recently. Brady expects a competitive fight that goes the distance, with judges likely favoring Rodriguez based on optics.

Fight goes the distance
"I'm going to ever so slightly lean into D-Rod just based off of the volume advantage."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Ponzinibbio's power and pressure will be too much for Rodriguez. He notes that Rodriguez is a slow starter and a slow mover, making it unlikely he can hurt Ponzinibbio consistently. Connor points out that Ponzinibbio has retained his ability to knock people out even when fights are going poorly, while Rodriguez's offense has diminished.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'm picking the Ponz as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Ponzinibbio has slowed and his durability is a concern, but Rodriguez doesn't have the power to exploit that. Ponzinibbio will dictate the pace, land more impactful shots, and win a decision.

"I think that we'll see Ponzibio dictate the pace of this matchup, land more impactful shots and eventually make it look good enough for the scorecards so that he can get his hand raised by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, describing him as a lifelong martial artist who is more well-rounded than Daniel Rodriguez, whom he calls a 'street dude with hands.' He believes Ponzinibbio will win a decision by getting takedowns at the end of rounds to sway judges. He notes that Rodriguez has declined due to injuries and poor grappling decisions.

decision win
"I'm going to go with Santiago Pon Nibia. I think he wins a decision and people aren't going to like it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Zane picks Ponzinibbio, noting that despite his decline, he retains a clear process of pressure boxing and fight-changing power. He contrasts this with Rodriguez, who is slower and less sharp as a counterpuncher. Zane expects Ponzinibbio to start slow but take over by round three, swarming Rodriguez with combinations. He believes Rodriguez lacks the offensive potential to put Ponzinibbio away and will be outworked.

Odds are nearly even: Ponzinibbio -111, Rodriguez -103.
"I expect by round three Ponzinibbio is just going to be absolutely conquering and swarming in the way we've seen him in a lot of his recent fights."
TKO (punches) R3 3:13 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Jan 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Santiago Ponzinibbio 1 76 of 175 43% 76 of 175 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Carlston Harris 1 73 of 196 37% 78 of 211 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 22 of 48 45% 22 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlston Harris 1 37 of 79 46% 37 of 79 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:08
2 Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 27 of 70 38% 27 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlston Harris 0 28 of 86 32% 28 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Santiago Ponzinibbio 1 27 of 57 47% 27 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Carlston Harris 0 8 of 31 25% 13 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Santiago Ponzinibbio 76 of 175 43% 57 of 151 8 of 11 11 of 13 72 of 165 0 of 0 4 of 10
Carlston Harris 73 of 196 37% 40 of 142 19 of 39 14 of 15 73 of 195 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Santiago Ponzinibbio 22 of 48 45% 13 of 39 5 of 5 4 of 4 22 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlston Harris 37 of 79 46% 20 of 51 8 of 18 9 of 10 37 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Santiago Ponzinibbio 27 of 70 38% 21 of 62 1 of 3 5 of 5 27 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlston Harris 28 of 86 32% 15 of 66 8 of 15 5 of 5 28 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Santiago Ponzinibbio 27 of 57 47% 23 of 50 2 of 3 2 of 4 23 of 47 0 of 0 4 of 10
Carlston Harris 8 of 31 25% 5 of 25 3 of 6 0 of 0 8 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Carlston Harris vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio

Round 1
In the co-headlining spot, two action welterweights throw down with aspirations of making one last run in a division unkind to the elderly. At the age of 38, Ponzinibbio (29-8, 11-7 UFC) knows his back is against the wall, and four losses in his last five fights do not help his case. Harris (19-6, 4-2 UFC), at 37, is not in as dire of a roster situation, but his chin was checked by Kalinn Williams last year in a gnarly way. The exciting combatants will collide as referee Kerry Hatley watches on, aware that this one could end with one concussive blow. There is a glove touch first, and Ponzinibbio stalks down the taller man early on. Harris tries to use his range to jab out and keep Ponzinibbio away, and he kicks at the front leg as well. Ponzinibbio jabs him back, brushing past a left hook to rifle off a one-two on the chin. Ponzinibbio goes to the body with another one-two, and Harris hops back and forth while kicking the plant leg again. Ponzinibbio connects at the end of a right hand, and Harris counters well enough to make Ponzinibbio reset. Harris jabs to the head and midsection, and his right hook brushes the waist. When Ponzinibbio sells out for a hook, Harris shoots even lower for a takedown, but the effort is for naught as he is completely shut down. Ponzinibbio further backs him away with a one-two and a low kick, and he blocks the head kick that zips at his melon. Harris gets off a short left hook to the ribs, and he aims another to the same spot. Ponzinibbio sways and moves, evading the worst of the strikes and lobbing big right hands back at the lankier man. They clash legs together when kicking, and Ponzinibbio scores and takes fire as they trade leather. A one-two from Ponzinibbio leads to a takedown effort from “Mocambique,” but Harris still cannot get him down. Instead, it is the power left from Harris that gets Ponzinibbio’s attention, staggering the fighter from Argentina after a blitz. Harris lobs a big right hand that puts Ponzinibbio to the ground, and he somehow opens a cut on the back of Ponzinibbio’s head wrapping the strike around him. Harris drills Ponzinibbio with a one-two that sets him down, and Ponzinibbio scrambles and gets to his feet. A kick from Harris nearly puts Ponzinibbio down again, and he gets up and clutches the back of his head as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Harris
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Harris

Round 2
The welterweights touch ‘em up, with Ponzinibbio appearing to have his feet beneath him again. Harris does not blitz him, instead jabbing to the body and measuring with his clubbing left hook head of winding it up. Ponzinibbio works the front leg twice to turn Harris about, and he sways away from a hook aimed his direction. Ponzinibbio walks through a low kick to put two punches on Harris’ chin, and Harris tanks them and responds in kind. Ponzinibbio blazes out with a one-two, and the right side of Harris’ face is bloodied up and swelling from absorbing strikes. Harris ducks a big left hand, and a jab draws blood from his mouth. The Argentinian doubles up on a jab and follows with a right that gets Harris’ attention, and Harris shoots for a takedown that is stopped in its tracks. Harris digs an uppercut to the body when Ponzinibbio bends over, and Ponzinibbio clubs him back with an overhand right. Splitting the guard with a right hand, Ponzinibbio gets through, but Harris knocks him back and then drops him with a jab. Ponzinibbio bounces up to his feet as if he had springs in his shorts, and he gets right in Harris’ face to keep throwing hands. Harris uses his longer range to chew up Ponzinibbio from his own preferred distance, and a leg kick from Harris disrupts Ponzinibbio’s movement briefly. Because of this, Ponzinibbio winds up and misses with a right hand, and he is in the wrong spot when Harris catches him with a right hook over the top. Harris digs to lefts to the liver to follow, and Ponzinibbio goes to the sternum with a left hand. They trade hooks at the same time, and their chins hold up even though they are taking massive damage at this point. Harris kicks, his foot is caught, and he still loops a left hand at his man. Ponzinibbio swings back with a vengeance, and Harris’ jab keeps him honest. Ponzinibbio comes up short with a one-two, and the horn sounds at matching lands.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Harris

Round 3
To the surprise of some, the fighters have reached the third round, and they high-five to celebrate their handiwork. Harris commences the round with a tackling takedown effort, and Ponzinibbio pitches him out of the way like a farmer tossing sacks of grain around. Harris rolls to his back and welcomes Ponzinibbio into the guard, and he forces a scramble that allows him to fight to his feet. They resets in kickboxing range, with Ponzinibbio loading up on right hands as he chases after Harris. Harris lets loose with a right hand that buzzes past his target, and both men land cleanly with power. Harris jabs the body and absorbs a one-two to the chest, and he slips when advancing but does not lose his footing. Harris doubles up on body shots with his left hook, and he kicks the same spot. Ponzinibbio scores with a big left and a heavy right, rocking Harris badly. Harris wobbles back, absorbing another fierce right hand on the jaw, and he is somehow on his feet despite getting blasted. Ponzinibbio unloads everything he has, setting Harris down, and Harris tries to engage his grappling as a safety valve. Ponzinibbio wants nothing to do with it and backs off to let Harris up, and he connects with looping lethal strikes. Harris gets rocked from one side of the cage to the other, but he is still in the fight and swings back with reckless abandon.
Ponzinibbio sets him down to a knee with a clubbing power shot, and Hatley rushes forward but pulls back before stopping the fight. Harris stands back up and lets his hands go, and during an exchange, Hatley inexplicably gets between them to stop the fight and save Harris from further punishment.
Harris is understandably upset because even though he took massive damage and was on baby deer legs, he was engaging and striking his opponent. Like the odd stoppage in the Curtis fight, the protests from the losing fighter fall on deaf ears. Ponzinibbio leaps out of the cage to high-five the commentary booth, and Harris quickly regains his cool and is all smiles after an uproarious battle.

The Official Result
Santiago Ponzinibbio def. Carlston Harris R3 3:13 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Angelo picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, citing his speed, cleaner striking, and better cardio. He notes that Carlston Harris has more power and aggressive grappling, but believes Ponzinibbio's volume and pressure will win. He expresses concern about Ponzinibbio's commentating job potentially distracting him, but still picks him. He mentions Ponzinibbio was an underdog but may flip to favorite.

"I am going to pick ponan nibio here he is still an underdog he was a bigger Underdog just a few weeks ago and he may be the only person on this card that actually flips to a favorite"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlston Harris

Big Brady likes Harris's grappling advantage, noting his elite submission game and front chokes. He thinks Ponzinibbio's chin is declining, having been knocked out by the Leech and Kevin Holland. He believes Harris has more ways to win, either by submission or a club-and-sub. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop, as both guys have poor durability and can finish each other.

under 2.5 rounds, less than 12.5 minutes fight time
"I think Carlson Harris could very well get knocked out I mean very well can get knocked out but um I just think he has more ways to win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Cody picks Ponzinibbio despite his recent 2-5 record, arguing that Harris is also flawed with poor takedown accuracy and stiff striking. He believes Ponzinibbio's veteran savvy, range, and power will allow him to land first. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds, expecting a knockout.

under 2.5 rounds
"I got the under two and a half but I'm going to go with Santiago ponzano it is a coin flip fight"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Connor picks Ponzinibbio because Harris is fundamentally bad at MMA, relying on wild aggression and grappling without structure. Ponzinibbio is a good defensive wrestler and strong in the clinch, and his straight punches and footwork make him difficult to clinch against. While Ponzinibbio is older and slower, he still has a process and toughness, and his losses have come against sharp strikers, not wild punchers like Harris. Connor notes that if Ponzinibbio loses, it would be his worst loss since 2011.

"So I got to kick Ponzinibio here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Daniel notes both fighters are washed up and chinny, but historically Ponzinibbio was one fight away from a title shot and has better credentials. He thinks Ponzinibbio's experience and jab/straight right will be enough, though he's not confident. He mentions Harris has dangerous front chokes but Ponzinibbio rarely shoots. He picks Ponzinibbio to win and retire.

"I'm going to go Santiago Panza nibio to actually come out here win this fight lay those gloves down in the center of the octagon and retire a winner"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Lucrative James gives a lean toward Santiago Ponzinibbio, but admits he hasn't done extensive research. He believes Ponzinibbio is the better striker and can defend takedowns, while Harris's best chance is an early knockout. He predicts a decision win for Ponzinibbio in a lackluster fight. He cautions that this is an early read and he may not bet it.

"I'm going to pick Santiago ponan nibio for now I'm going to do more research on this one"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 10, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Ponzinibbio's technical striking should allow him to pick apart Harris and eventually find a knockout, but he must be wary of Harris's big power and reckless swinging. As long as Ponzinibbio's speed hasn't diminished, he should find openings to put Harris away.

by knockout, fight doesn't go to decision
"I still do lean with ponzani nibio as I think his technical striking approach will allow him to pick apart Harris and eventually find a Knockout but you have to be very wary of the big power coming back from …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlston Harris

Paul leans toward Harris as a slight plus-money underdog, citing Ponzinibbio's age and damage absorbed. He notes Harris's crafty submission game and power, but admits both are flawed. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds as a bet rather than the moneyline.

under 2.5 rounds at -120
"I'm going to lean towards the Harris side here with the the slight plus money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

The Guru picks Ponzinibbio despite questioning why this is a co-main event. He notes Ponzinibbio's split decision loss to Muslim Salikhov and leg kicks against Holland, and his win over Alex Morono. He contrasts Harris's inactivity, age (37), and KO loss to Chaos Williams. He acknowledges Ponzinibbio's recent chinny reputation but thinks he's good enough to beat Harris.

"I'm going to go Santiago Pono getting this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Ponzinibbio has not lost his innate understanding of how to fight and is still tough. He points out that Ponzinibbio's recent losses are to elite fighters, and he has competed well against fringe contenders. Harris, despite being a natural athlete, has poor technique and has never been that good. Zane also mentions that Ponzinibbio's pattern of slow starts and strong finishes could be a factor, but Harris is unlikely to capitalize early.

"Me too. Yeah. I tend to agree."
LOSS vs Muslim Salikhov
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Jul 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muslim Salikhov 0 41 of 117 35% 42 of 118 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:29
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 46 of 121 38% 69 of 146 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muslim Salikhov 0 14 of 43 32% 14 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 17 of 37 45% 17 of 37 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Muslim Salikhov 0 16 of 45 35% 16 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 14 of 48 29% 16 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Muslim Salikhov 0 11 of 29 37% 12 of 30 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:01
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 15 of 36 41% 36 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muslim Salikhov 41 of 117 35% 31 of 102 5 of 7 5 of 8 40 of 116 1 of 1 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 46 of 121 38% 20 of 87 20 of 27 6 of 7 45 of 120 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muslim Salikhov 14 of 43 32% 9 of 36 4 of 5 1 of 2 14 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 17 of 37 45% 7 of 27 8 of 8 2 of 2 16 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Muslim Salikhov 16 of 45 35% 13 of 41 0 of 1 3 of 3 16 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 14 of 48 29% 7 of 37 4 of 8 3 of 3 14 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Muslim Salikhov 11 of 29 37% 9 of 25 1 of 1 1 of 3 10 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 15 of 36 41% 6 of 23 8 of 11 1 of 2 15 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Muslim Salikhov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ponzinibbio (-205), Salikhov (+170)

Round 1
From one pair of knockout artists to another we go, this time in the welterweight division. The co-main event presents powerful Argentinian Ponzinibbio (29-7, 11-6 UFC) against the self-proclaimed “King of Kung Fu” Salikhov (19-5, 6-4 UFC), and both men celebrate the majority of their victories via strikes. Unfortunately for the aging 170ers, they have each gone 1-3 in their last four, so a win would mean keeping things going while a defeat might push them closer towards the end. Referee Dan Miragliotta will be the third man in the Octagon, and he steps back as the heavy hitters touch ‘em up. Ponzinibbio pushes the pace early, jabbing his way forward only to get pushed back by a front kick. Salikhov delivers a solid kick to the body as he shifts to the side, and he lands one on the lead leg and has a head kick blocked right after. Ponzinibbio whiffs on a low kick, and Salikhov leaps at him with a left hook that grazes the jaw. Salikhov tries that strike again, and Ponzinibbio sees it coming and parries it, following with a high kick. Salikhov blocks it and gives him one back, and that too bounces off the guard. Salikhov lands a body kick backing up, and he cannot get away from a jab to his ribs. Salikhov spins with no telegraphing and has it ricochet off the shoulder, and he bursts his way into a short combo of punches. Ponzinibbio lands with two of three punches on his way forward, catching the Russian and bullying him back to the wire. Ponzinibbio lands a calf kick and protects his mug from an overhand right, and he ducks a spinning back fist and stumbles—not from absorbing the blow, but from dodging it. Ponzinibbio wags his finger to signal the strike did not land, and he recovers and stays evasive to not get caught with subsequent strikes from the “King of Kung Fu.” Salikhov connects with a left hand, and Ponzinibbio counters and drops Salikhov. The Russian gets back to his feet, and Ponzinibbio is marching him down winding up with serious power. Salikhov drives him back with a solid uppercut, but not before a cut opens up on the inner eyebrow. Both men appear to slip on the canvas surface but not because of damage, and they race at one another to trade. Salikhov lands a heavy right hand, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio

Round 2
The fighters clap hands to begin the second stanza, and Salikhov takes two attempts to blitz forward and pulls back each time. He then spins with a wheel kick that buzzes past the jaw, and he keeps spinning, this time with a back fist. Ponzinibbio backs him away with a few jabs and a head kick, and he pushes aside a front kick to wing a right hand. Salikhov scores two left hooks before spinning with a back kick to the ribs, and Ponzinibbio no-sells it and tries to respond with a left. Salikhov has another spin broken up when Ponzinibbio rushes him, and they bounce off one another and reset. Salikhov jabs out with his toes outstretched, and they tag one another with punches. Ponzinibbio appears to get the worse of a left hand, and Salikhov gives chase and swarms him with big punches. Ponzinibbio absorbs a spinning wheel kick, where even while blocked it further staggers him. Ponzinibbio rebounds off the fencing and finds his footing again, and he swings his way forward to close the distance and stay out of kicking range. Salikhov responds with a looping right hook that does not connect and a low kick that does. Salikhov tries another wheel kick, but Ponzinibbio is wise to it and gets up close and personal. The Russian allows him to do this so he can time an uppercut, and he plants the ball of his foot on Ponzinibbio’s sternum for good measure. Ponzinibbio drives home a one-two, and Salikhov trips him up with a takedown effort. Salikhov cannot keep him down, and they return upright to trade hands. The Argentinian fighter swings inaccurately with two hooks, and his foe answers him with a front kick and a leaping punch. Salikhov has a left hook parried, and he jumps forward with a second that is ducked. Spinning with a kick to the body, Salikhov lands the strike but finds himself on his seat a moment later when Ponzinibbio surprises him with a takedown. Ponzinibbio hangs on until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov

Round 3
The fighters shake hands and bro-hug to commence the last round, and strikes are soon to follow. Salikhov lands a swiping left hook and hops back to avoid a low kick, and the Argentinian ducks to avoid a second. Salikhov spams front kicks, and Ponzinibbio lets fly a right hook that bangs into the temple. Salikhov wears it well and is jabbed back by subsequent strikes, but he gathers steam and marches forward landing a front kick. Both fighters trade hooks, and Salikhov dodges a leg kick and spins with a wheel kick that does not connect. A trio of punches from the Russian do not find their home, and he whips a left hook that grazes the top of his foe’s head. Ponzinibbio rushes after him with a pair of punches and is pushed back by a teep kick, only to crash the pocket and push “King of Kung Fu” to the cage wall. Salikhov breaks away and strafes one direction and then the other, and he has a telegraphed left hook miss the mark by a wide margin. Ponzinibbio attempts a single that is easily stopped, although he does manage to put Salikhov against the cage wall. A second attempt manages to bring Salikhov to his knees, and he drapes himself over Salikhov while keeping him on a single knee. Salikhov takes a seat, and Ponzinibbio thinks about moving around to take the back but decides instead to pursue top position. Ponzinibbio slows the fight to a crawl by holding the Russian down, and Salikhov sucks wind and tries with all his might to stand. He eventually gets back to his feet, and Ponzinibbio is dead set on getting that takedown again. The last try fails, and the close fight ends in a clinch while the crowd showers them with boos.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio (29-28 Ponzinibbio)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio (29-28 Ponzinibbio)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio (29-28 Ponzinibbio)

The Official Result
Muslim Salikhov def. Santiago Ponzinibbio via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Angelo picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, believing he will dominate the striking exchanges and that Muslim Salikhov will fade at elevation. He notes that both fighters are older and coming off losses, but Ponzinibbio's volume and range management should be key. He thinks the odds are too wide for a favorite and would only bet if the line moves to around -120.

Would consider betting if odds move to around -120.
"I'm going to pick ponan nibio here I do think he's going to own the Striking exchanges"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Cody picks Ponzinibbio but is hesitant, noting both fighters are past their prime and have cardio issues at altitude. He thinks Ponzinibbio's speed and volume will outwork Salikhov, but fears Salikhov could land a big shot late. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation.

"I think pwn and nio more often than not gets the job done."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Muslim Salikhov

Daniel Vreeland picks Muslim Salikhov to upset Santiago Ponzinibbio. He believes Ponzinibbio has never been the same after a severe bacterial infection, losing speed and durability. He notes that both fighters are past their primes, but at the odds, he prefers the underdog Salikhov. He mentions that Ponzinibbio's recent performances have been poor, including a life-and-death fight with Miguel Baeza and knockout losses. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and goes with Salikhov.

"I'm going go salikov here to uh upset ponan nibio at these odds."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Santiago Ponzinibbio is slightly favored. He is a bit faster and slicker with his shots. Durability is shaky on both sides, but Ponzinibbio's speed should allow him to land the first big shot and put Salikhov away. The line has dropped from -220 to -180, still a bit wide.

"I do believe Pon nio is a little bit faster and a little bit slicker with the shots and I think that'll eventually allow him to land that big shot on salikov and put him away"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Paul picks Ponzinibbio but is cautious, citing Salikhov's power and cardio concerns for both. He believes Ponzinibbio's speed and volume will be key, but acknowledges the fight could end violently for either. He expects a competitive fight.

"I think pwn and nio more often than not gets the job done."
LOSS vs Kevin Holland
KO (punch) R3 3:16 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Holland 1 66 of 197 33% 67 of 198 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 44 of 104 42% 44 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Holland 0 29 of 70 41% 29 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kevin Holland 0 23 of 78 29% 24 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 15 of 43 34% 15 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
3 Kevin Holland 1 14 of 49 28% 14 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 16 of 23 69% 16 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Holland 66 of 197 33% 24 of 138 11 of 23 31 of 36 62 of 187 2 of 6 2 of 4
Santiago Ponzinibbio 44 of 104 42% 12 of 58 7 of 19 25 of 27 44 of 101 0 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Holland 29 of 70 41% 7 of 41 6 of 12 16 of 17 27 of 63 1 of 4 1 of 3
Santiago Ponzinibbio 13 of 38 34% 2 of 20 2 of 8 9 of 10 13 of 36 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Kevin Holland 23 of 78 29% 11 of 61 3 of 5 9 of 12 22 of 76 1 of 2 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 15 of 43 34% 4 of 26 4 of 9 7 of 8 15 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Kevin Holland 14 of 49 28% 6 of 36 2 of 6 6 of 7 13 of 48 0 of 0 1 of 1
Santiago Ponzinibbio 16 of 23 69% 6 of 12 1 of 2 9 of 9 16 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-245), Ponzinibbio (+205)

Round 1
Since making his promotional debut in August 2018, “Trailblazer” Holland (23-9, 1 NC; 10-6, 1 NC UFC) has competed in the Octagon a whopping 17 times to date. His 18th outing will come in a striker’s delight against Argentine slugger Ponzinibbio (29-6, 11-5 UFC), and bonus money may be up for grabs here. Referee Dan Miragliotta is charged up for this welterweight clash, and he will be watching out to make sure he does not take an errant strike. Ready to have fun, the two bump fists, and Holland backs off to find his range. Holland, with eight inches to his advantage on his hands, uses his similarly lanky legs to push off. Ponzinibbio sits down on a chopping leg kick to slow the movement of Holland down, to which Holland responds with a left hook and a jab. Ponzinibbio attacks the lead leg again, and Holland fires off a jab and a body kick. Ponzinibbio checks a kick, and he attacks the right leg a few times after Holland switches stances. Holland swats out with a left, and he counters when Ponzinibbio crashes the pocket. A Holland jab makes Ponzinibbio slip when the latter throws out a low kick, and he climbs back up without concern. Holland chops at the front leg of the Argentine fighter, and it gets checked. Holland whips a kick up high that careens off the guard, and he blocks a body kick. Holland stays active with punches and kicks, and he shoulder rolls and retreats when Ponzinibbio gives chase. They clash legs at the same time, and Holland opens up with three calf kicks. Holland springs into action with a darting jab, and changes his stances instead of following up and getting countered. Ponzinibbio winds up with a few haymaker right hands, and when he misses, Holland starts talking to him. Ponzinibbio just misses with a right hook, and Holland able to narrowly evade them and block a counter left. Four punches allow Ponzinibbio to partially get through the guard, and Holland lifts his leg up after getting kicked. Holland throws kicks from body legs, and Ponzinibbio catches it and looks to slug it out. Holland releases a backfist that knocks Ponzinibbio clean off his feet, and he drops down a few punches to a downed Ponzinibbio until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland

Round 2
The welterweight clap hands to get the second round started, and Holland leads the dance and walks into a few leg kicks. “Trailblazer” sets up his jab, using his reach to back Ponzinibbio off. Holland sneaks in a low kick and blocks a high kick, and he just misses a huge left hand. Ponzinibbio steps in with an elbow, and he escapes before a counter finds him. Holland targets the knee wit ha stomp kick, and pushes off with the ball of his foot to the chest. Ponzinibbio misses the dome by a matter of inches with a huge left hand, and Holland kicks at him from both legs. Holland dips back to fire a left hand, and Ponzinibbio chew up his foe’s leg with kicks. The Texan walks his opponent down and absorbs a big right hand and a sweeping kick, and he swats out with a few lefts. Holland grins after dodging a huge left hand, and he takes a leg kick flush. Holland gets checked when kicking the calf, and Ponzinibbio catches another kick but is not back fisted this time. Ponzinibbio strings a few punches together, only for Holland to roll with them. Holland’s jab works well, and he keeps Ponzinibbio at bay but cannot stop the calf kicks. Holland stalks his opponent down, striking with front kicks and a right hand. Holland gets Ponzinibbio’s attention with a few right hands in a series, and Ponzinibbio clinches up with him to get his bearings. Holland allows this to knee his man in the jaw, and he pushes off to gain some space. Ponzinibbio swings with all his might with three looping punches, and Holland dodges all of them. Holland meets Ponzinibbio coming in with an elbow, and he makes Ponzinibbio hit nothing but air and looks to his imaginary watch to taunt his inaccurate opponent. The round ends after this motion.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland

Round 3
Before the third round opens, Holland talks to someone outside of the cage. When it does, Holland reaches out to clap hands, and Ponzinibbio obliges him. Holland strikes first with a kick, and he chops at the lead calf and is answered with two back. “Trainblazer” flicks out a few jabs, and he blocks a winging left hook but does not defend against a brutal kick that destabilizes his balance. Holland loads up on a few right hands and kicks the thigh, and he jumps into punches while struggling to put weight on his left leg. Holland switches stances, and Ponzinibbio greets him with a high kick on that side. A kick from Holland appears to get Ponzinibbio’s attention, who slips, and Holland motions to make sure his opponent is ok. Ponzinibbio is good to go, and he winds up with a powerful kick to the calf. Holland grits it out and spins with a wheel kick, and Ponzinibbio plants his feet and throws bombs. Holland walks into a vicious kick that almost buckles his knees, and he tosses out a front kick to keep Ponzinibbio honest. “Argentina Dagger” fires a kick to the other lead leg, and he checks the ones that come back his way. Holland gets clubbed with a left, and he side kicks the body. Holland catches a low kick and rings the bell with a right hand, and Ponzinibbio hops back and is in trouble. Holland races after him, and he unloads a left hook that would knock down a heavyweight. Ponzinibbio falls down to the ground, face-first, and Holland belts him with one single follow-up blow before Miragliotta jumps in to wave off the faceplanting knockout. Knowing his work is done, Holland jumps out of the cage and rushes over to White and Trump, where he tells them that he has a broken right hand. He climbs back in the cage, and tells Ponzinibbio that kicking him hurt his own feet. In his post-fight interview, Holland says that if Jorge Masvidal does not retire after tonight, he would like to challenge for the “BMF” title.

The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Santiago Ponzinibbio R3 3:16 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Angelo picks Kevin Holland but is avoiding bets because he wants to see how Holland looks after the Wonder Boy loss. He notes that Holland is a good grappler and accurate striker, but his takedown defense is poor. He thinks Holland should win, but Ponzinibbio is a good technical striker who could make it tough.

"Kevin Holland is absolutely the pick should be a favorite here I just I don't know how he's gonna be coming off of that loss"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by knockout, citing Holland's durability and Ponzinibbio's recent decline. He notes that Ponzinibbio was hurt multiple times by Alex Morono and knocked out by Li Jingliang. He predicts a second-round KO, but admits he doesn't fully trust Holland due to his low fight IQ.

second round KO
"I'll say Holland eventually hurts pawns and everyone gets him out of there ... Holland I will say second round KO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Cody also picks Ponzinibbio but is hesitant. He notes Holland's poor decision-making and the respect books give him, making the line too high. Cody points out Ponzinibbio's durability questions and age but sees value at +200. He mentions that Ponzinibbio is fighting in his backyard in Florida and that Holland's minus 235 price is disrespectful. Cody is not sure if he'll bet it but makes the pick for the show.

"Ponzi nevio will also be my pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Connor picks Holland because Ponzinibbio has become a slow starter who gets hurt in every fight. Holland is fast, hits hard, and is fearless, so he will likely land a big shot early. Ponzinibbio may rally later, but his early deficits are too large to overcome. Connor notes that Holland's defense has deteriorated at welterweight, but his durability and confidence make him a tough out. He also mentions that Ponzinibbio's fragility is the real concern, as he gets hurt basically every fight now.

Holland opened around -250, now in that range; Ponzinibbio opened at +215, now +200. Connor says the line is reasonable.
"Kevin Holland's just going to donk him with like the stupidest right hand you've ever seen."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Jacob is confident in Kevin Holland, noting that the UFC gave him a winnable fight. He points out that Holland put Wonder Boy on skates in the first round, and if he lands those shots on Ponzinibbio, he will knock him out. He believes Holland is a better, longer, and more powerful striker, and will get the job done.

"Kevin Hollins Lane against Wonder Boy Santiago is a very good Striker but he's not one or boy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Holland has speed and power but is coming off a hand injury and fighting compromised. Ponzinibbio is slower post-layoff but still has veteran savvy and power. I think Holland's speed and power advantage will find Ponzinibbio's chin, but the hand injury is a major red flag. I prefer the fight doesn't go to decision prop over betting Holland straight.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm still going to pick him to win this fight because I think his speed and power Advantage will eventually be able to find that chin of puns nibio"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Paul takes Ponzinibbio as a plus-money underdog, though hesitantly. He notes Ponzinibbio is always competitive against top welterweights, with close split decisions against Jeff Neal and Michel Pereira. Paul criticizes Kevin Holland's poor fight IQ, referencing the Stephen Thompson fight where Holland let him up. He believes Ponzinibbio, training in Florida with the crowd behind him, has a real chance. However, he acknowledges Ponzinibbio is 36 and may have declined.

"I'm gonna take Santiago ponzanubia"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Kevin Holland

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland to win by second-round TKO via straight right hand. He expects Ponzinibbio to have success early with leg kicks and jabs, but Holland will time a right hand as Ponzinibbio throws a kick, rocking him badly. He predicts Holland will finish with ground and pound in round two around the three-minute mark.

second round TKO, straight right hand
"I think we're gonna go with Kevin Holland buy a second round TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Zane picks Holland because Ponzinibbio starts slow and has become fragile. Holland will be aggressive and throw hammers, and Ponzinibbio won't be able to catch up early. Zane notes that Ponzinibbio can still rally and has diverse striking, but his early deficits are too much. He also mentions that Holland's gas tank and hand injury are concerns, but Ponzinibbio's inability to start fast is the deciding factor.

Holland opened around -250, now in that range; Ponzinibbio opened at +215, now +200. Zane says the line is reasonable.
"I am also going to pick Kevin Holland to win in the stupidest way possible."
WIN vs Alex Morono
KO (punches) R3 2:29 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Santiago Ponzinibbio 1 66 of 155 42% 66 of 155 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Alex Morono 1 38 of 131 29% 38 of 131 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 22 of 42 52% 22 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Morono 1 17 of 55 30% 17 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 26 of 73 35% 26 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alex Morono 0 13 of 50 26% 13 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Santiago Ponzinibbio 1 18 of 40 45% 18 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Alex Morono 0 8 of 26 30% 8 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Santiago Ponzinibbio 66 of 155 42% 31 of 99 26 of 47 9 of 9 65 of 153 0 of 0 1 of 2
Alex Morono 38 of 131 29% 34 of 120 4 of 11 0 of 0 34 of 124 0 of 0 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Santiago Ponzinibbio 22 of 42 52% 6 of 19 11 of 18 5 of 5 22 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Morono 17 of 55 30% 14 of 51 3 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 48 0 of 0 4 of 7
2 Santiago Ponzinibbio 26 of 73 35% 12 of 48 12 of 23 2 of 2 26 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Morono 13 of 50 26% 12 of 45 1 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Santiago Ponzinibbio 18 of 40 45% 13 of 32 3 of 6 2 of 2 17 of 38 0 of 0 1 of 2
Alex Morono 8 of 26 30% 8 of 24 0 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Angelo picks Ponzinibbio, noting his clean striking, range control, and volume. He warns that Ponzinibbio must avoid Lawler's power and treat him with respect. He believes Ponzinibbio can get a finish if he maintains a high pace like Barbarena did. He acknowledges Lawler is dangerous even at 40 but thinks Ponzinibbio's technical approach will win.

"ponzanibio is the pick but avoid the power do what you do stay technical use the range pour on some volume"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Big Brady picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, but is not confident in the price. He notes Ponzinibbio has lost a step but still competes at a high level, while Morono is a short-notice replacement. He expects a close fight that goes to decision, with Ponzinibbio outpointing Morono.

Ponzinibbio wins by decision; fight goes to decision
"I'm gonna take pawns and maybe to win I'm gonna take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Cody picks Ponzinibbio, citing his volume striking, footwork, and ability to absorb damage. He notes Ponzinibbio has been competitive against high-level guys despite recent split decision losses. He thinks Morono is a 50/50 fighter who fights to his opponent's level and is taking the fight on short notice. He expects Ponzinibbio to win by decision.

Ponzinibbio by decision
"I would have to say that pausing Ebu just goes there and works morono over... I do have him winning by decision more specifically"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Connor picks Ponzinibbio, citing his full camp, powerful straight punches, and low kicks. He notes Morono is a short-notice replacement and lacks the athleticism to handle Ponzinibbio's sustained offense. Connor believes Ponzinibbio's persistence and power will overwhelm Morono, who tends to put himself in danger.

Odds: Morono opened +220, dropped to +151; Ponzinibbio opened -260, now -182.
"I still think I'm going to have to take him for having a full camp. Ponsinibio style doesn't really change ever from opponent to opponent."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Daniel Levi picks Santiago Ponzinibbio but with low confidence due to Ponzinibbio's diminished form after a health scare. He praises Ponzinibbio's prime style: stalking footwork, calf kicks, and a beautiful straight right. However, he notes Ponzinibbio is a step slower now and has gone 1-3 in his last four. Levi acknowledges Morono's toughness and awkward brawling style, but believes Ponzinibbio's cleaner striking and experience should carry him. He warns not to be surprised if Morono wins.

"I still think he gets it done but you just can't act surprised if he doesn't"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Lock likes Ponzinibbio to win, believing he will torch Morono from the jump and eventually knock him out. He sees Morono as a plodding forward fighter whose durability holds up some nights but not against Ponzinibbio's striking. From a long-term perspective, he thinks Ponzinibbio will get a decent bump but will lose against higher-level competition. He recommends a pump and dump on Ponzinibbio this weekend.

pump and dump on PredictionStrike
"pumping up this weekend on panzanibio I'd say I don't mind it I don't mind that one bit"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Ponzinibbio. He notes that Ponzinibbio has been preparing for this fight for a long time while Morono is on short notice. He thinks the minus 180 line is fair and is surprised it's not higher given the circumstances. He sees Ponzinibbio's experience and preparation as key factors.

"I'm with you I'm gonna take uh ponzanibio as well minus 180 seems relatively Fair too to be perfectly honest so I'm a little bit surprised by that number particularly with Alex morono coming in on short notice"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio over Robbie Lawler (note: transcript says Lawler but fight is Ponzinibbio vs Morono; likely error). He believes Ponzinibbio will jab Lawler's face off and win by TKO in round two or three. He criticizes Lawler's age and recent performances, and thinks Ponzinibbio's range striking will be too much.

"I'm gonna be going with Santiago ponz nibio over Robbie Lawler"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Zane picks Ponzinibbio, emphasizing his ability to rally back in fights and his power. He notes Morono's grit but says Ponzinibbio's sustained offense and punching power are a level above Morono's recent opponents. Zane is concerned about Morono's short notice but trusts Ponzinibbio's experience.

Odds: Morono opened +220, now +151; Ponzinibbio opened -260, now -182.
"I'm going to pick Santiago Ponson to be out here. I just think that despite even beyond the short notice Ponson to be Oh getting put away early by Legion, the longest concern, but the way he's rallied back against …"
LOSS vs Michel Pereira
Decision (split) (28–29, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · May 21, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michel Pereira 0 105 of 220 47% 106 of 221 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:18
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 110 of 216 50% 110 of 216 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michel Pereira 0 16 of 39 41% 16 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 24 of 45 53% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Michel Pereira 0 34 of 66 51% 35 of 67 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:18
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 35 of 70 50% 35 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Michel Pereira 0 55 of 115 47% 55 of 115 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 51 of 101 50% 51 of 101 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michel Pereira 105 of 220 47% 78 of 185 13 of 18 14 of 17 103 of 217 1 of 1 1 of 2
Santiago Ponzinibbio 110 of 216 50% 52 of 143 42 of 56 16 of 17 108 of 214 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michel Pereira 16 of 39 41% 8 of 29 5 of 5 3 of 5 16 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 24 of 45 53% 9 of 27 12 of 15 3 of 3 24 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Michel Pereira 34 of 66 51% 26 of 56 4 of 5 4 of 5 33 of 64 0 of 0 1 of 2
Santiago Ponzinibbio 35 of 70 50% 14 of 44 17 of 21 4 of 5 34 of 69 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Michel Pereira 55 of 115 47% 44 of 100 4 of 8 7 of 7 54 of 114 1 of 1 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 51 of 101 50% 29 of 72 13 of 20 9 of 9 50 of 100 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 15, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Angelo picks Michel Pereira because he believes Pereira is better everywhere: more power, versatility, 100% takedown defense, and improved cardio. He notes that Ponzinibbio has good range control but Pereira's power and technique will overcome that. He expects Pereira to win a decision, his fourth in five fights.

"i like pajada to win his fourth decision in five fights and his fifth fight in a row so michelle pajada is definitely the pick here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Big Brady picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win by decision, favoring his pressure style and superior cardio. He notes Ponzinibbio throws combinations and leg kicks, while Pereira prefers to stick on the outside and may struggle with pressure. He expects Ponzinibbio to break Pereira as the fight goes on and win a close decision.

"ponzi and ponzi by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Cody leans Pereira because he believes Ponzinibbio hasn't looked the same since his eye injury, citing close fights with Miguel Baeza and Geoff Neal where he was outlanded in significant strikes. He notes Pereira has improved his cardio and fight IQ, mixing in takedowns and pacing himself. He thinks Pereira's chin is better and that he can land a big shot or wrestle, making him the fresher fighter.

Pereira by KO (+350)
"i gotta lean towards pereira in this matchup but i wouldn't fault anybody for going the other way and it's a close fight the oddsmaker's got a dead spot on but i i think i'm leaning towards pereira just being …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked May 21, 2022 (fight day)

The host discusses the fight but does not make a clear pick. He notes that Pereira is a bigger welterweight and that Ponzinibbio is a legitimate 170-pounder. He questions whether Pereira's size will be a factor and mentions that Ponzinibbio's takedown defense should be good enough. He does not express a preference for either fighter.

"i'm not going to take too much from michelle's size honestly"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not give a clear pick for this fight. He says the line is perfectly accurate and both guys can win. He mentions Ponzinibbio's volume and pressure but notes he hasn't looked the same since his injury. He does not express a preference.

"this is a straight up 50 50. like i think the line's perfectly accurate you can see both guys winning"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, believing he has the cardio and durability to outlast Michel Pereira. He thinks Pereira's KO power is not enough to finish Ponzinibbio and that Pereira will fade in the later rounds. He predicts a third-round TKO for Ponzinibbio.

third round TKO
"i'm going to go with santiago ponza nibia"
LOSS vs Geoff Neal
Decision (split) (28–29, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 0 85 of 161 52% 86 of 162 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 91 of 229 39% 91 of 229 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 0 20 of 41 48% 21 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 26 of 63 41% 26 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Geoff Neal 0 19 of 47 40% 19 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 26 of 73 35% 26 of 73 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:23
3 Geoff Neal 0 46 of 73 63% 46 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 39 of 93 41% 39 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 85 of 161 52% 73 of 145 5 of 9 7 of 7 85 of 161 0 of 0 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 91 of 229 39% 62 of 195 12 of 17 17 of 17 90 of 228 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 20 of 41 48% 13 of 33 2 of 3 5 of 5 20 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 26 of 63 41% 17 of 54 5 of 5 4 of 4 25 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Geoff Neal 19 of 47 40% 16 of 41 2 of 5 1 of 1 19 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 26 of 73 35% 15 of 61 4 of 5 7 of 7 26 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Geoff Neal 46 of 73 63% 44 of 71 1 of 1 1 of 1 46 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 39 of 93 41% 30 of 80 3 of 7 6 of 6 39 of 93 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Big Brady picks Geoff Neal to win by knockout, but with low confidence due to Neal's recent DUI and gun possession arrest. He notes that Neal has a power advantage and reach advantage over Ponzinibbio, who is 35 and coming off a layoff and a knockout loss. However, Neal's preparation is a major concern. Brady says if Neal shows up focused, he has a good chance, but he is not sure the fight will even happen.

Neal by knockout in round 1
"i'll take neil to get the win i think a lot of people are counting them out i definitely understand why but i don't take neil to get the knockout here in the first round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Daniel Levi picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win a war of attrition. He notes that both fighters nearly died from medical issues, but Ponzinibbio looked better in his last fight against Miguel Baeza, shaking off rust. Levi questions whether Geoff Neal has recovered from his sepsis and heart failure, citing poor performances against Wonderboy and Neil Magny. He believes Ponzinibbio's jab, straight right, calf kicks, and takedown defense will be too much. Levi expects Ponzinibbio to be more aggressive and meaner.

"give me santiago ponzinibio to win a war of attrition here once again"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Geoff Neal

Neal is the more technical striker and will counter Ponzinibbio's aggressive pressure effectively. Ponzinibbio has defensive flaws and is hittable, especially against a counter-striker. Neal's straight right and speed should find the mark, and a knockout is possible. The underdog odds provide value.

by KO
"i'm going jeff neal again a couple contrarian picks compared to what i've been seeing out there recently but i feel decent about it here in jeff know especially at these underdog odds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win by decision, citing his experience, technical striking, and ability to pressure. He notes that Geoff Neal had a troubled training camp (jail time) and has shown vulnerability against pressure fighters. He predicts Ponzinibbio will win 30-27.

30-27 decision win
"i'm going to go with santiago ponzibio here over jeff neal um i was picking ponzinio anyway more experienced better technically on the feet"
WIN vs Miguel Baeza
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · Jun 05, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 121 of 270 44% 122 of 271 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Miguel Baeza 0 104 of 249 41% 104 of 249 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 15 of 52 28% 15 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Miguel Baeza 0 39 of 73 53% 39 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 47 of 107 43% 47 of 107 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Miguel Baeza 0 27 of 66 40% 27 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 59 of 111 53% 60 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Miguel Baeza 0 38 of 110 34% 38 of 110 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Santiago Ponzinibbio 121 of 270 44% 98 of 245 12 of 13 11 of 12 121 of 270 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miguel Baeza 104 of 249 41% 36 of 166 24 of 34 44 of 49 104 of 249 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Santiago Ponzinibbio 15 of 52 28% 12 of 47 2 of 3 1 of 2 15 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miguel Baeza 39 of 73 53% 11 of 43 8 of 10 20 of 20 39 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Santiago Ponzinibbio 47 of 107 43% 38 of 98 4 of 4 5 of 5 47 of 107 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miguel Baeza 27 of 66 40% 7 of 37 7 of 12 13 of 17 27 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Santiago Ponzinibbio 59 of 111 53% 48 of 100 6 of 6 5 of 5 59 of 111 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miguel Baeza 38 of 110 34% 18 of 86 9 of 12 11 of 12 38 of 110 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Miguel Baeza

Big Brady questions whether Ponzinibbio is the same fighter after a long layoff and poor performance against Li Jingliang, where he looked hesitant and was outlanded. He notes Baeza is on the rise, improving each fight, though his competition has been weak. He believes Baeza hits hard and can knock out Ponzinibbio, who has been knocked out twice before. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Baeza by KO.

"i'll take by asa to win by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 2, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Cody picks Ponzinibbio as a dog, citing his experience and higher level of competition. He notes Baeza's striking is one-at-a-time and he hasn't faced anyone like Ponzinibbio. Cody is hesitant because Ponzinibbio looked bad against Li and has injury history, but he gives him one more chance. He thinks Ponzinibbio's physical strength and experience will be enough.

"i'll go with ponzinio i don't i don't love it but again it's gonna be another dog shot"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Miguel Baeza

Daniel picks Baeza because he believes Ponzinibbio may never be the same after his health issues and three-year layoff. He notes that Baeza is a special prospect with big power, good left hook, calf kicks, and a black belt in jiu-jitsu, training with Colby Covington. Daniel points out that Ponzinibbio looked slow and hesitant in his last fight against Li Jingliang, and his defensive flaws are now more exposed. He acknowledges that Ponzinibbio could look better with the ring rust gone, but the uncertainty leads him to favor Baeza, predicting a knockout.

"i gotta go with baeza here it's just um i i won't be surprised that pons looks slightly better this fight than he did the the last one but then again i won't be surprised if he gets knocked out …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 2, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Miguel Baeza

Paul leans toward Baeza, citing Ponzinibbio's long layoff and poor performance against Jingliang Li. He notes Ponzinibbio's suspect chin and low hands. Paul thinks Baeza's youth and power could be key, but acknowledges Ponzinibbio's experience. He is not confident and calls it a lean.

"i'm leaning towards beza here what about you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Miguel Baeza

The Guru picks Miguel Baeza, citing Ponzinibbio's long layoff due to injuries and his recent KO loss to Li Jingliang. He thinks Baeza has improved greatly, with good grappling, submissions, and striking IQ. He predicts Baeza will rock Ponzinibbio and finish by TKO in the first round, noting Ponzinibbio made technical mistakes against Li.

TKO round 1
"i'm gonna go with miguel bazer not submission i'll i'll go with tko for miguel bazer first round"
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Angelo picks Kevin Holland but is avoiding bets because he wants to see how Holland looks after the Wonder Boy loss. He notes that Holland is a good grappler and accurate striker, but his takedown defense is poor. He thinks Holland should win, but Ponzinibbio is a good technical striker who could make it tough.

"Kevin Holland is absolutely the pick should be a favorite here I just I don't know how he's gonna be coming off of that loss"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by knockout, citing Holland's durability and Ponzinibbio's recent decline. He notes that Ponzinibbio was hurt multiple times by Alex Morono and knocked out by Li Jingliang. He predicts a second-round KO, but admits he doesn't fully trust Holland due to his low fight IQ.

second round KO
"I'll say Holland eventually hurts pawns and everyone gets him out of there ... Holland I will say second round KO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Cody also picks Ponzinibbio but is hesitant. He notes Holland's poor decision-making and the respect books give him, making the line too high. Cody points out Ponzinibbio's durability questions and age but sees value at +200. He mentions that Ponzinibbio is fighting in his backyard in Florida and that Holland's minus 235 price is disrespectful. Cody is not sure if he'll bet it but makes the pick for the show.

"Ponzi nevio will also be my pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Connor picks Holland because Ponzinibbio has become a slow starter who gets hurt in every fight. Holland is fast, hits hard, and is fearless, so he will likely land a big shot early. Ponzinibbio may rally later, but his early deficits are too large to overcome. Connor notes that Holland's defense has deteriorated at welterweight, but his durability and confidence make him a tough out. He also mentions that Ponzinibbio's fragility is the real concern, as he gets hurt basically every fight now.

Holland opened around -250, now in that range; Ponzinibbio opened at +215, now +200. Connor says the line is reasonable.
"Kevin Holland's just going to donk him with like the stupidest right hand you've ever seen."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Jacob is confident in Kevin Holland, noting that the UFC gave him a winnable fight. He points out that Holland put Wonder Boy on skates in the first round, and if he lands those shots on Ponzinibbio, he will knock him out. He believes Holland is a better, longer, and more powerful striker, and will get the job done.

"Kevin Hollins Lane against Wonder Boy Santiago is a very good Striker but he's not one or boy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Holland has speed and power but is coming off a hand injury and fighting compromised. Ponzinibbio is slower post-layoff but still has veteran savvy and power. I think Holland's speed and power advantage will find Ponzinibbio's chin, but the hand injury is a major red flag. I prefer the fight doesn't go to decision prop over betting Holland straight.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm still going to pick him to win this fight because I think his speed and power Advantage will eventually be able to find that chin of puns nibio"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Paul takes Ponzinibbio as a plus-money underdog, though hesitantly. He notes Ponzinibbio is always competitive against top welterweights, with close split decisions against Jeff Neal and Michel Pereira. Paul criticizes Kevin Holland's poor fight IQ, referencing the Stephen Thompson fight where Holland let him up. He believes Ponzinibbio, training in Florida with the crowd behind him, has a real chance. However, he acknowledges Ponzinibbio is 36 and may have declined.

"I'm gonna take Santiago ponzanubia"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Kevin Holland

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland to win by second-round TKO via straight right hand. He expects Ponzinibbio to have success early with leg kicks and jabs, but Holland will time a right hand as Ponzinibbio throws a kick, rocking him badly. He predicts Holland will finish with ground and pound in round two around the three-minute mark.

second round TKO, straight right hand
"I think we're gonna go with Kevin Holland buy a second round TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Zane picks Holland because Ponzinibbio starts slow and has become fragile. Holland will be aggressive and throw hammers, and Ponzinibbio won't be able to catch up early. Zane notes that Ponzinibbio can still rally and has diverse striking, but his early deficits are too much. He also mentions that Holland's gas tank and hand injury are concerns, but Ponzinibbio's inability to start fast is the deciding factor.

Holland opened around -250, now in that range; Ponzinibbio opened at +215, now +200. Zane says the line is reasonable.
"I am also going to pick Kevin Holland to win in the stupidest way possible."