Career Averages - Tom Aspinall
Career Averages - Sergei Pavlovich
Tom Aspinall
Sergei Pavlovich
Tom Aspinall - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 0 | 27 of 39 | 69% | 27 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ciryl Gane | 0 | 30 of 40 | 75% | 30 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 0 | 27 of 39 | 69% | 27 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ciryl Gane | 0 | 30 of 40 | 75% | 30 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 27 of 39 | 69% | 14 of 25 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 8 | 27 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ciryl Gane | 30 of 40 | 75% | 8 of 16 | 9 of 11 | 13 of 13 | 30 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 27 of 39 | 69% | 14 of 25 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 8 | 27 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ciryl Gane | 30 of 40 | 75% | 8 of 16 | 9 of 11 | 13 of 13 | 30 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aspinall (-380), Gane (+300)
Round 1
Despite never engaging in an undisputed championship bout, Aspinall (15-3, 8-1 UFC) is the current undisputed heavyweight king. He achieved this feat by annihilating Sergei Pavlovich in 69 seconds to claim the interim strap, and then defended that silver title by punching out Curtis Blaydes in exactly one minute. He has been away for a smidge under 15 months, during which time he was elevated to the undisputed holder when Jon Jones cast his throne aside again. Like the Liverpudlian, Gane (13-2, 10-2 UFC)—who forgot his groin cup—has only held the interim belt, so there are a lot of marbles on the line. A potential date with either Jones or light heavyweight kingpin Alex Pereira looms, and referee Jason Herzog will be on the ball to make sure everything stays copacetic. He takes a deep breath and brings the two to the middle of the cage to issue instructions, and the big men gladly touch ‘em up with no ill will between them. It’s on with the show.
Gane marches forward and slips a right hand, and he cannot get out of the way of a body kick. Aspinall rushes after him, ignoring kicks and jabs to hurl his big right hand, and he knocks Gane back to the wall. Gane responds with his own overhand right and a kick, and he barely blocks a head kick in time. Every collision is a veritable car crash of danger and pain with these two heavyweights, and Gane has already bloodied up Aspinall’s nose. Aspinall shoots for a takedown, and the Frenchman bucks him to the side without concern and resets on the outside. Aspinall fires off a high kick that pounds into the raised guard, and Gane bounces back and forth on his toes while looking for his sharp jab. Gane pump-fakes to draw a reaction out of his opponent, and Aspinall comes out swinging and trips Gane up with a low kick. The Brit spins with a back kick to the torso, and he darts in and out to draw Gane’s reactions.
Gane jabs him in the stomach, and Aspinall counters with a right hand. Gane stomps the front leg with a kick and peppers Aspinall with his jab, and he tries to escape a body kick but is not out of range. The French fighter keeps behind his jab, and he snaps Aspinall’s head back with a particularly strong one. Gane hyperextends the lead leg with his stomp kick, and Aspinall thinks about a spin and bails on it, only to offer a high-five and a grin to his opponent. Gane pecks away with his sharp jab, staying light on his feet and switching stances frequently. Aspinall chambers and fires a hefty leg kick that Gane takes well, and Gane’s jab is bloodying up the Brit more and more with every impact. They crash together with punches, and Gane’s fingers push off and jam into both of Aspinall’s eyes at once in a Three Stooges-esque disaster. Herzog sees it and calls time, and Aspinall walks to the cage and leans on it in pain. Herzog calls in the doctor as the replays shows both eyes were impacted. Aspinall appears to tell the doctor that he cannot see, and that would be the worst possible outcome if true. Herzog goes over to calm Aspinall down, giving him a towel to hold over his eye and take more time. Once more, Aspinall appears to tell someone that he cannot see. Aspinall is struggling to even open his eye, and he has the doctor further check on the condition. Herzog handles this ordeal like a consummate professional, asking Aspinall once more if he can see. Aspinall says no, so Herzog declares properly that this heavyweight championship bout will be ruled a no contest due to the accidental foul. Gane, learning this news, collapses to the ground in contrition and melancholy, and fans abandon ship in droves and depart the building silently.
Aspinall, who still cannot open his right eye, is incensed that the remaining audience is booing him and curses them out. They keep booing until they see the definitive slow-mo replay, and ouch. He does not stick around long, as he wants to get his eye checked out by the professionals. The crestfallen Gane apologizes to everyone for the inadvertent foul—sometimes these things really do happen in MMA—and hopes that he can get another crack at Aspinall soon. If they run it back in the near future, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane is Ruled a No Contest (Accidental Eye Poke) R1 4:35
Angelo picks Tom Aspinall confidently, calling Ciryl Gane undeserving of the title shot. He notes Aspinall's well-rounded skills, 100% takedown accuracy and defense, and hand speed. However, he admits uncertainty about Aspinall's ability to handle adversity or a long fight, as he has only fought 16 minutes in nine UFC fights. Despite this, he believes Aspinall wins any way he wants.
Big Brady is extremely confident in Tom Aspinall, stating he should run through Ciryl Gane. He criticizes Gane's takedown defense and grappling, noting he was outgrappled by Ngannou, Volkov, and submitted by Jones. Brady believes Aspinall has the power to KO anyone and the grappling to submit Gane. He expects Aspinall to close the distance, get the fight to the ground, and finish Gane in the first round via submission.
Cody picks Tom Aspinall to retain the title, citing Aspinall's wrecking ball form and Gane's exploitable grappling. He notes that while Gane has good elbows and cardio, his takedown defense is weak, as seen against Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou. Cody believes Aspinall can knock him out or submit him early, but acknowledges the risk if the fight extends past the first round due to Aspinall's history of early finishes and potential cardio issues.
Connor also picks Aspinall, emphasizing that Gane struggles against opponents who press him and don't respect his range. He compares Aspinall's approach to Volkov's pressure in their fight, which caused Gane to make poor grappling decisions. Connor believes Aspinall's athleticism and wrestling will be too much for Gane, though he notes Aspinall's cardio could be a concern if the fight goes long.
Daniel Vreeland is extremely high on Tom Aspinall, calling him the 'baddest man on the planet' and praising his one-two combination, ground game, and finishing ability. He acknowledges Ciryl Gane's diversity and leg lock threat but believes Aspinall's speed and power will be too much. He notes that Aspinall hasn't been tested past the first round but doesn't see that as a flaw. He picks Aspinall to win decisively.
Lucrative James picks Tom Aspinall to win by submission or ground-and-pound finish in the first round. He highlights Aspinall's massive power and speed advantage early, as well as his superior grappling, noting that Ciryl Gane has repeatedly shown grappling holes against strikers like Francis Ngannou and Alexander Volkov. He acknowledges Gane's technical striking and cardio advantage if the fight goes late, but believes Aspinall's early finishing ability and wrestling will be too much. He also mentions that Gane has been training in Abu Dhabi for a month, giving him an acclimatization edge, but still favors Aspinall.
The host believes Aspinall's physical advantages in speed and power will be too much for Gane. He expects Aspinall to touch Gane up on the feet and mix in takedowns, leading to a finish within two rounds.
Paul also picks Tom Aspinall, emphasizing his well-rounded game with high-level BJJ and knockout power. He notes Aspinall's 100% takedown accuracy in the UFC and believes he can submit Gane similar to Jon Jones. However, Paul warns that if Aspinall doesn't finish early, his cardio could be a concern, as seen in the Arlovski fight, and suggests live betting on Gane if the fight goes past round one.
The MMA Guru picks Tom Aspinall by Kimura submission in the first round, around 3-4 minutes. He believes Aspinall's speed and power will be too much for Gane, and that Gane overthinks in high-pressure situations. He compares their common opponents (Spivac, Volkov, Tuivasa) and sees Aspinall as levels above. He predicts Aspinall will sting Gane on the feet, then get a body lock takedown and transition to a Kimura from top position. He also mentions a PrizePicks bet on Aspinall under 1.5 rounds.
Zane picks Aspinall, believing his pressure and willingness to exchange will overwhelm Gane. He notes Aspinall's lack of deep fight experience but thinks his aggression and wrestling will force Gane into mistakes, likely finishing within two rounds. Zane acknowledges Gane's technical striking but doubts his ability to handle Aspinall's relentless forward pressure.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 1 | 14 of 19 | 73% | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 1 | 14 of 19 | 73% | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 14 of 19 | 73% | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 11 |
| Curtis Blaydes | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 14 of 19 | 73% | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 11 |
| Curtis Blaydes | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Tom Aspinall, noting that Curtis Blaydes has abandoned his wrestling and has not attempted a takedown in three years. He believes Aspinall is the much better striker and may even mix in takedowns after watching Blaydes get taken down by Jailton Almeida. Angelo warns that heavyweights can always land a knockout, but confidently picks Aspinall.
Cody picks Tom Aspinall, noting his superior boxing, power, and athleticism. He points out that Curtis Blaydes often fails to commit to takedowns and gets knocked out when standing, as seen against Francis Ngannou and Sergei Pavlovich. Cody believes Aspinall's chin is better and that he can finish Blaydes early, likely by knockout in round one or two. He also mentions that Blaydes' wrestling may not be effective against Aspinall's BJJ.
Daniel dismisses the first fight as a fluke injury TKO and believes Tom Aspinall is the superior athlete with better footwork, striking, and fight IQ. He criticizes Blaydes' decision to stand with Pavlovich and thinks Aspinall will finish him early. He predicts a first-round knockout.
Daniel picks Tom Aspinall, citing his superior wrestling, athleticism, and striking power. He notes that Aspinall took down and submitted Volkov, and knocked out Pavlovich, while Blaydes has been exposed by grapplers like Jailton Almeida. He doubts Blaydes can grind out a 25-minute decision and believes Aspinall is far more dangerous on the feet.
Jeff also picks Aspinall, agreeing with Daniel's assessment. He notes Aspinall has the complete package and Blaydes has been out-grappled before. He wishes the line were better but accepts it.
Paul takes a shot on Curtis Blaydes at plus money, citing the volatility of heavyweights. He acknowledges that Aspinall is the more likely winner but notes that Blaydes has cardio and wrestling that could cause problems if the fight goes into later rounds. Paul mentions that he faded Blaydes before but is willing to take a chance at plus 421, as heavyweights are unpredictable.
The MMA Guru picks Tom Aspinall by TKO in the first round. He believes Aspinall is better in every way—faster, more powerful, and with better grappling. He dismisses the first fight due to Aspinall's injury and notes that Blaydes didn't land a clean punch. The Guru points to Aspinall's quick submission of Sergei Pavlovich and his ability to finish fights. He also mentions that Jon Jones tossed Blaydes around, suggesting Aspinall can do the same. He expects Aspinall to land a one-two and finish on the feet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 0 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 1 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 0 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 1 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 10 of 14 | 71% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 10 of 14 | 71% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aspinall (-118), Pavlovich (-102)
Round 1
The interim heavyweight strap looms, while current champ Jon Jones is on the mend from shoulder surgery. It is unclear if the winner of this fight will face the victor between the rescheduled Jones-Stipe Miocic tilt that may happen next year, as a lot of factors remain. This silver medal will be vied for by a pair of finishers that have each claimed six victories opposite a single defeat in the UFC thus far, and in those 14 fights, only Aspinall (13-3, 6-1 UFC) has reached Round 2. Once. The betting line that Pavlovich (18-1, 6-1 UFC) and Aspinall reach the final bell is currently around -1400, although that same prop for Jailton Almeida and Derrick Lewis last week was an astounding -3500, and everyone knows what happened. This is MMA, where anything can and often does happen. The fighters share an embrace when brought together, and referee Dan Miragliotta takes a deep breath. Pavlovich keeps his left hand out early to measure, and Aspinall kicks the lead leg in a hurry. Aspinall splits the guard with a front kick that just grazes the midsection, and a kick is checked by Pavlovich. A flurry from the Russian dislodges Aspinall’s mouthpiece, and he appears surprised at the power that came his way as he resets it. Pavlovich blocks a high kick and crowds his man with an overhand right that connects and hurts Pavlovich. Aspinall reaches out with a left, and follows with a momentous right hook that collides square into the temple. Pavlovich’s eyes go wide as his balance gives out, and he slowly collapses to his back like a flan in a cupboard. Confidence through the roof, Aspinall pounces, and he completely hammers the nail with three hammerfists before Miragliotta reaches him to shove the new champion off of the fallen Russian. Aspinall has done it, becoming the third Brit to claim a UFC belt, and joining Michael Bisping and Leon Edwards. What a night of fights so far, and there is one more championship to go.
The Official Result
Tom Aspinall def. Sergei Pavlovich R1 1:09 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Aspinall, citing his well-roundedness and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Pavlovich has insane power but is untested in later rounds and against takedowns. He thinks Aspinall's wrestling and BJJ will be the difference, but he is not betting due to the even odds and volatility.
Big Brady slightly leans Tom Aspinall, citing his multiple paths to victory. He notes Aspinall has a significant advantage on the ground with his BJJ and ground-and-pound, while Pavlovich has shown nothing off his back. However, he acknowledges Pavlovich's terrifying power and that Aspinall must get the fight to the mat. Brady says he probably won't bet the moneyline but might look at a prop.
Cody leans Pavlovich, citing Aspinall's questionable cardio after the first round and his knee injury history. He thinks Pavlovich's power and pressure will be too much, and that Aspinall hasn't proven he can go into deep waters. He notes Pavlovich's training partners praise his cardio, and he believes Pavlovich will land something big and take over.
James picks Tom Aspinall, believing he should be a decent favorite despite the even line. He sees the striking as roughly 50/50, but gives Aspinall 80% of the grappling upside. He notes Pavlovich's takedown defense is untested and Aspinall has athletic takedowns. He acknowledges the short notice for Aspinall but thinks it matters less at heavyweight. He sees Aspinall having more paths to win: decision, submission, or knockout.
Aspinall's speed, agility, and athleticism will be key. He can land a straight right or secure a takedown and dominate from top position. Pavlovich's grappling vulnerability was exposed by Overeem. Aspinall's physicality will allow him to snatch the victory. Expects a finish, calling it round two. Short notice is less of a concern at heavyweight.
Paul is a believer in Pavlovich, having taken him at +135 earlier. He dismisses the Overeem loss as a debut five years ago, noting Pavlovich has improved immensely at Eagles MMA. He thinks Pavlovich's takedown defense and devastating power make him a problem, and that Aspinall's cardio and durability are unproven.
The MMA Guru picks Tom Aspinall, citing his superior movement and fight IQ. He notes that Pavlovich's opponents have stood still, while Aspinall will use footwork, feints, and takedown threats. He predicts Aspinall will get a takedown and submit Pavlovich in round two, possibly with a rear-naked choke. He also mentions Pavlovich's high activity may lead to accumulated injuries.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 1 | 13 of 18 | 72% | 13 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 1 | 13 of 18 | 72% | 13 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 13 of 18 | 72% | 12 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
| Marcin Tybura | 4 of 15 | 26% | 2 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 13 of 18 | 72% | 12 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
| Marcin Tybura | 4 of 15 | 26% | 2 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is all-in on Tom Aspinall, believing he should dominate anywhere the fight goes. He acknowledges the knee injury concern but thinks Aspinall's speed, power, and BJJ are superior. He calls Aspinall the most confident pick on the card and suggests him as a parlay piece with Molly McCann.
Big Brady picks Tom Aspinall to win by first-round knockout. He calls it a setup fight for Aspinall after his injury. He notes Tybura has been knocked out by Derrick Lewis and others, and questions his chin. He thinks Aspinall's speed and power will be too much, and Tybura's only path is to take Aspinall down or outlast him, which he doubts. He mentions Tybura looked skinny at the face-off.
Cody acknowledges Aspinall is likely to win but sees value on Tybura at +380 due to Aspinall's knee injury and heavyweight volatility. He took a very small bet on Tybura, fully expecting to lose, but thinks the price is too high on Aspinall. He mentions that historically, plus money heavyweights have value.
Daniel picks Tom Aspinall to win, citing his speed, technical striking, and well-rounded game including takedowns and submissions. He notes that Aspinall represents the new wave of heavyweights and has a significant speed advantage over Tybura. However, he is concerned about the price at -475, calling it a 'sucker bet' and stating he lines Aspinall closer to -400. He also mentions the risk of freak injury given Aspinall's recent surgery. Despite the pick, he passes on betting due to poor value.
James picks Tom Aspinall to win by finish in round two. He acknowledges Aspinall's cardio is an unknown but notes that the only evidence of a cardio issue was the Arlovski fight where Aspinall seemed to have an adrenaline dump but still finished. He believes Aspinall is better than Tybura everywhere and that Tybura's only advantages are experience and potential cardio. James thinks Aspinall will be smarter this time and not steamroll in round one, but will get the finish in round two. He mentions that Tybura at +350 is the value side but he still favors Aspinall.
The host picks Tom Aspinall, citing his speed, power, and ability to finish. He notes Tybura has been hurt early in fights before but that Aspinall is a better finisher than those opponents. He predicts a first-round stoppage and suggests targeting under 1.5 rounds.
Paul picks Aspinall but notes the price is too high to bet straight. He suggests live betting Tybura after the first round if Aspinall gasses. He highlights Aspinall's speed, power, and BJJ, but also his cardio concerns and the knee injury. He would hedge if Aspinall is on a parlay.
The MMA Guru picks Tom Aspinall, calling it a logical pick. He criticizes Marcin Tybura's age and conditioning, and notes Tybura has no submission wins in the UFC. The Guru believes Aspinall has a massive advantage on the feet and on the ground, and predicts a finish in the first round, either by TKO or takedown. He also mentions Aspinall's year off and vengeance after surgery.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Tom Aspinall | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Tom Aspinall | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Blaydes | 4 of 10 | 40% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tom Aspinall | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curtis Blaydes | 4 of 10 | 40% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tom Aspinall | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Curtis Blaydes, citing his next-level wrestling and recent striking improvement. He notes Blaydes has taken down elite heavyweights like Volkov, Overeem, and Hunt, while Aspinall's 100% takedown defense is based on only two defended attempts. He believes Blaydes will have success on the feet but ultimately get takedowns and win. He has a moneyline bet on Blaydes as an underdog.
Big Brady picks Tom Aspinall to win by first-round knockout, but he is hesitant. He notes Blaydes is a tough matchup with great wrestling, but Aspinall is the much better striker with power and speed. He questions Aspinall's takedown defense but thinks his BJJ black belt and get-up game could be key. He believes Aspinall can knock Blaydes out early.
Cody leans towards Tom Aspinall, expecting an early stoppage within the first 10 minutes. He highlights Aspinall's superior hands, pro boxing experience, and size advantage. Cody notes Blaydes' tendency to get complacent striking and his late notice for the fight. He also mentions Aspinall's jiu-jitsu can keep him safe on the ground. Cody plans to live bet Blaydes if Aspinall doesn't finish early.
Daniel Levi picks Tom Aspinall to win, arguing that Aspinall's speed, variety, and well-rounded game will be too much for Curtis Blaydes. He dismisses the notion that Blaydes can simply extend the fight and win, noting that Blaydes lost the championship rounds against Volkov. Levi emphasizes Aspinall's impressive grappling, including a straight arm lock submission on Volkov, and believes Aspinall's takedown defense and offensive wrestling are underrated. He also mentions the home crowd advantage and Blaydes' potential jet lag.
Aspinall has cardio questions. If Blaydes survives the early onslaught and takes Aspinall down, Aspinall will gas. Blaydes has faced tougher competition and has more tools to win over a longer fight. I see Blaydes finishing Aspinall in the third round via TKO from top position.
Paul leans towards Curtis Blaydes at plus money, citing uncertainty about Tom Aspinall's cardio and performance if taken down multiple times. He notes Blaydes has never been an underdog in the UFC and has strong wrestling and top control. Paul suggests live betting Aspinall early and then Blaydes if Aspinall doesn't finish. He admits he doesn't love the pick and probably won't bet it.
The MMA Guru picks Tom Aspinall to win by first-round TKO. He notes Blaydes has a pattern of overcommitting to a strategy and losing. Aspinall is quick, technical, and has a jiu-jitsu background. He will chop the legs, land combos, and time a takedown. Blaydes will get back up but take damage, and Aspinall will finish him late in the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 29 of 43 | 67% | 35 of 50 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 29 of 43 | 67% | 35 of 50 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 13 of 23 | 56% | 6 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Alexander Volkov | 29 of 43 | 67% | 16 of 30 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 8 | 16 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 13 of 23 | 56% | 6 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Alexander Volkov | 29 of 43 | 67% | 16 of 30 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 8 | 16 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 16 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
In extremely hostile territory, Russian striker Volkov (34-9, 8-3 UFC) will compete as one half of the main event against surging British upstart and pure finisher Aspinall (11-2, 4-0 UFC). The partisan crowd has been treated to plenty of locals getting their hand raised thus far tonight, and they hope to end the night with the Team Kaobon fighter out of Manchester getting it done once more. Referee Marc Goddard will serve as the final Octagon ranger of the evening, and a cool hand shake is exchanged before the two inflict powerful heavyweight violence on one another. Aspinall starts first with several quick punches, landing a trio of shots on the chin as Volkov is caught standing still. Volkov backs off to get into his preferred range, landing leg kicks and checking one of his own. The Brit surges forward, grabbing hold of his opponent and wrenching him down to the mat. Landing in side control one minute into the round, Aspinall elects to step into half guard and hack down with short elbows. Volkov is already cut from these elbows on the side of his head, and Aspinall continues working on it. Aspinall lets go with his other hand, slamming down fists and elbows as Volkov struggles to work his way to the fence. When the Russian sits up, Aspinall isolates a two-on-one wrist lock to try to hunt for a kimura, but Volkov straightens his arm and fights back up to his feet. Aspinall resets, and Volkov chips at him with a leg kick and a right hand as Aspinall advances with a hacking standing elbow. Aspinall attacks the leg and stands right in front of his opponent, throwing strikes, and Volkov is frozen watching it happen. Aspinall throws a kick and falls to the ground, and although Volkov runs over to try to capitalize on the position, Aspinall rolls and stands back up to high five Volkov. The Brit gathers his footing and rushes in, hitting a tackle of a double-leg takedown to put the Russian down to the canvas again.
Instead of hunting for ground-and-pound, Aspinall immediately goes after Volkov’s left arm. Briefly considering a kimura again, Aspinall changes it up to lock up a straight armbar, and Volkov taps out frantically when his elbow hyperextends.
The Team Kaobon fighter releases, and he sprints to the cage wall to climb it alongside teammate Darren Till. This is unquestionably a breakout performance for the instant heavyweight contender, blowing through a durable, crafty veteran while barely breaking a sweat. What a major turn of events in a fight card full of them, closing out a thrilling card that very well will be involved in “Event of the Year” conversations in nine-plus months. In his post-fight conversation with commentator Michael Bisping, the victorious Aspinall challenges Tai Tuivasa to drink beer with him – and fight – when the promotion returns to England. Should that come together, we will be here for it, and we hope you are too.
The Official Result
Tom Aspinall def. Alexander Volkov R1 3:45 via Submission (Straight Armbar)
Angelo picks Tom Aspinall, citing his superior pure striking, more power, and better grappling compared to Volkov. He notes that Volkov has lost to strikers like Gane and Lewis, and to grapplers like Blaydes. Angelo acknowledges Volkov's durability and the fact that Aspinall has never gone three rounds, but still sees Aspinall as the straightforward pick. He has a moneyline bet on Aspinall at minus 110.
Big Brady picks Alexander Volkov to win by late knockout. He has question marks about Aspinall's cardio, as Aspinall has never won a fight past 1.5 rounds and slowed in the Arlovski fight. Brady believes Volkov has a proven chin, excellent cardio, and has faced much better competition. He doubts Aspinall can take Volkov down and thinks the fight will stay on the feet, where Volkov's experience and durability will prevail.
Cody picks Aspinall but is hesitant due to the five-round distance. He notes Aspinall's speed and power advantage, and thinks his grappling might be better, but the five rounds scare him. He hasn't placed a bet on it.
Daniel Levi picks Tom Aspinall at dog odds (+110), citing his speed advantage, confidence, and Volkov's potential decline after missing a title shot. He notes Aspinall's footwork and movement are rare for a heavyweight, and that Volkov's recent performances have been shaky. Levi acknowledges the cardio question but believes Aspinall can finish early or outpoint Volkov. He also mentions that Volkov's last two five-round fights were losses.
Volkov is a 43-fight veteran who has only been knocked out twice, showing durability. Aspinall's win condition is a first-round KO; if he doesn't get it, he fades. Volkov's range kickboxing, teeps, and leg kicks will chip away at Aspinall's gas tank. Aspinall's win over Spivak was impressive but Spivak looked intimidated. Volkov at underdog odds is great value; I'll bet him at +120 to +130 for 2 units. I'm picking Volkov via third-round TKO.
Paul picks Volkov, emphasizing the five-round advantage and Volkov's durability. He argues Aspinall needs a first-round KO, but Volkov has a good chin and cardio. He cites Volkov's improvements in takedown defense and size, and believes Aspinall's aggressive style will lead to fatigue in later rounds.
The Guru picks Tom Aspinall despite the close odds, citing Aspinall's speed, power, and grappling pedigree. He notes Volkov's vulnerability to being cracked, referencing Derrick Lewis's knockout, and believes Aspinall's team focus (after Darren Till left) will elevate him. He also mentions potential hometown judging bias in the UK. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Aspinall landing a 1-2 straight down the pipe.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 1 | 16 of 26 | 61% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 0 of 11 | 0% | 0 of 11 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 1 | 16 of 26 | 61% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 0 of 11 | 0% | 0 of 11 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 16 of 26 | 61% | 12 of 22 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 10 |
| Serghei Spivac | 0 of 11 | 0% | 0 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 16 of 26 | 61% | 12 of 22 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 10 |
| Serghei Spivac | 0 of 11 | 0% | 0 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Tom Aspinall to win by knockout, citing Aspinall's excellent striking volume (7.43 sig strikes/min, 66% accuracy) and power. He acknowledges question marks about Aspinall's takedown defense and cardio beyond the first round, but believes Spivac's short notice and questionable cardio will prevent him from wrestling effectively for three rounds. Brady notes Spivac has been knocked out before (by Walt Harris) and expects Aspinall to finish him either early or late as Spivac gasses. He cautions against parlays this week due to close fights.
Cody picks Aspinall but suggests betting Spivac live after the first round, expecting Aspinall to dominate early and the line to swell. He notes Aspinall's cardio concerns and Spivac's ability to fight deep, but thinks Spivac looked awful against Olenyk and is on short notice. He believes Aspinall's speed and power will be too much early, but if it goes past round one, Spivac could take over.
I'm fading Aspinall because his cardio is suspect—he gassed against Stuart Austin and slowed against Arlovski. Spivak has shown he can go deep into fights, like against Carlos Felipe. Aspinall's grappling defense is questionable; he got submitted by Austin and looked bad on his back. Spivak keeps a high pace and can wrestle. If Aspinall doesn't finish early, Spivak will take over. I bet Spivak on the moneyline and like Spivak by decision at +500.
Paul is staying away from this fight, citing the big juice on heavyweights and the uncertainty of both young fighters. He mentions Aspinall's cardio issues and Spivac's poor performance against Olenyk, but doesn't commit to a pick. He notes the prop 'Aspinall by KO' is -120 but still doesn't want to bet.
The MMA Guru picks Tom Aspinall to win by first-round TKO. He believes Aspinall's size, athleticism, and jiu-jitsu black belt will prevent Spivac from grinding him out. He notes Spivac starts slow and makes mistakes on the feet early, and on short notice, Spivac's cardio will be compromised. He compares it to Walt Harris's TKO of Spivac.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 0 | 20 of 55 | 36% | 22 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 0 | 37 of 60 | 61% | 41 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 0 | 16 of 42 | 38% | 18 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 0 | 33 of 54 | 61% | 37 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:09 | |
| 2 | Tom Aspinall | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 20 of 55 | 36% | 8 of 40 | 7 of 9 | 5 of 6 | 17 of 49 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 37 of 60 | 61% | 22 of 44 | 6 of 7 | 9 of 9 | 24 of 40 | 13 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 16 of 42 | 38% | 7 of 31 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 36 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 33 of 54 | 61% | 21 of 42 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 34 | 13 of 20 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tom Aspinall | 4 of 13 | 30% | 1 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Daniel Levi dismisses the narrative that Aspinall gasses after the first round, noting his only real loss was a heel hook in 2015 and a DQ due to an illegal elbow. He praises Aspinall's physical traits: 6'5", 265 lbs, 78-inch reach, and straight punches down the pipe. Levi believes Aspinall's sparring with Tyson Fury and training at Team Cowboy have elevated his game. He expects Aspinall to knock out Arlovski in the first round, comparing it to when Jairzinho Rozenstruik knocked out Arlovski.
Sergei Pavlovich - Fight History
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pavlovich (-600); Teixeira (+450)
Round 1
The feature fight of UFC Macau is also the only heavyweight bout on the card, and on a night with five first-round finishes in 10 fights so far, knockout merchants Pavlovich (20-3; 8-3 UFC) and Teixeira (9-1; 2-1 UFC) may well push us over .500 in that recard. Lukasz Bosacki is the referee, and the big men take the center of the Octagon in matching orthodox stances. Pavlovich surges forward swinging huge punches with both hands.
He crushes the massive Brazilian with an overhand right, misses with a left as Teixeira stumbles backward, then catches him with another right and the tall man goes down in a heap. Another follow-up punch glances off, but Bosacki is already diving in to stave off further punishment.
After two straight uncharacteristic decision wins in 2025, Sergei Pavlovich has just turned in a vintage performance.
The Official Result
Sergei Pavlovich def. Tallison Teixeira R1 0:39 via TKO (Punches)
AJ is confident Pavlovich will win, calling Teixeira not very good and noting his competitive fight with Tai Tuivasa and loss to old Derrick Lewis. He highlights Pavlovich's destruction of Tuivasa and win over Waldo Cortes-Acosta. AJ thinks Pavlovich will knock him out, possibly in round one, but also acknowledges Pavlovich can be patient and go to decision. He calls it a tune-up fight for Pavlovich.
AJ picks Sergei Pavlovich confidently, expecting a knockout despite Pavlovich's recent patient approach. He notes Pavlovich's punching power and underrated wrestling, while Teixeira is hittable and takes risks. AJ thinks Pavlovich will eventually land a big shot, possibly after the over 1.5 rounds mark, but is confident in a KO win.
AJ calls Pavlovich a lock, citing his terrifying boxing, knockout power, and defensive grappling. He thinks Teixeira is not ready, noting his poor defense and panic grappling. AJ predicts a first-round KO, as Pavlovich has the reach and power to put Teixeira away early.
Angelo confidently picks Sergei Pavlovich by KO, calling Teixeira a 'bum' who only wins because he's big. He notes Pavlovich's power and speed against a lower-level opponent, predicting a quick knockout similar to Derrick Lewis's finish.
Angelo picks Sergei Pavlovich because he is too fast, too powerful, and too dangerous. He notes that Pavlovich's only losses are to elite fighters and that Tallison Teixeira has poor striking defense. He expects a knockout.
Angelo picks Sergei Pavlovich, citing his speed, power, and experience. He notes that Teixeira struggled against higher competition and doesn't have a good jab like Volkov, who gave Pavlovich trouble. He believes Pavlovich is better everywhere and should find a knockout, though he acknowledges the odds are too rich to bet.
Big Brady is very confident in Pavlovich, calling Teixeira a fraud for failing to submit Tai Tuivasa and gassing out. He believes Pavlovich's power and size will be too much, and Teixeira is defensively irresponsible with tall man's defense. He predicts a first-round knockout, noting Pavlovich has gone to decision in his last three but Teixeira is less durable than Waldo Cortes-Acosta.
Cody sees this as a setup match for Pavlovich to get a highlight-reel knockout. He notes Pavlovich's wrestling background and power, and that Teixeira has been knocked out before (Derrick Lewis). Cody believes Pavlovich will pressure, land overhands, and finish early, putting him back in title contention. He acknowledges the risk of a heavyweight fight but is confident in a vintage performance.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Pavlovich. He notes that Teixeira's game is still raw and he tends to back himself into the cage, which plays into Pavlovich's pressure. Connor also mentions that Pavlovich has evolved a jab and counterpunching, making him more dangerous at range. He expresses hope that Teixeira might have leveled up from the Tuivasa fight, but doubts it given the short turnaround.
Levi is extremely confident in Pavlovich, calling the fight a mismatch. He criticizes Teixeira's poor defense, citing his chin-up, hands-down style exposed against Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa. Levi expects Pavlovich to knock Teixeira out easily.
Jacob picks Sergei Pavlovich because Tallison Teixeira is not very good and has terrible striking defense. He notes that Pavlovich is the better striker and that Teixeira's win over Tai Tuivasa was unimpressive. He acknowledges the price is thick but believes Pavlovich should win.
Lucrative James is very confident in Pavlovich, calling him a 'home run' in this fight. He criticizes Teixeira's poor defense, cardio issues, and lack of high-level competition, noting that Teixeira struggled against a washed Derrick Lewis and a past-prime Tai Tuivasa. He highlights Pavlovich's power, improved wrestling, and smart fight IQ, referencing his camp with a Russian national boxing team member to prepare for Teixeira's height. He predicts a knockout, believing Pavlovich will land clean and finish early.
The host picks Sergei Pavlovich, citing his knockout power and speed. He notes Pavlovich has taken a more disciplined approach but is much more explosive and powerful than Teixeira, predicting a first-round knockout.
The host picks Pavlovich, citing his speed, power, and tougher strength of schedule. He believes Pavlovich will stop Teixeira's grappling and find his chin quickly, leading to a knockout. He notes Teixeira's chin is a question mark after being knocked out by Derrick Lewis.
Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a setup match. He notes Pavlovich's first-round finishes in his first seven UFC fights and that his recent decision losses were against tall fighters (Volkov) but Teixeira is not at that level. Paul expects Pavlovich to pressure and land big shots, finishing Teixeira early.
The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich to win. He believes Pavlovich will make a comeback and knock out Teixeira. He notes that Pavlovich has experience at a high level and despite recent tentative performances, he should be able to land his punches. He also mentions that Teixeira has been fast-tracked and his wrestling isn't a threat to Pavlovich.
The Guru picks Pavlovich at a very high clip. He notes Pavlovich has fight-ending power, good boxing combinations, and a surprising reach advantage over the 6'7 Teixeira. Teixeira is athletic and has power but is outmatched everywhere. The only path for Teixeira is an errant knockout shot.
The Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich over Talison Teixeira, calling it a 'hydrogen bomb versus coughing baby' matchup. He believes Pavlovich's power, patience, and cardio will break down Teixeira, who has questionable cardio and has fought low-level competition. He expects Pavlovich to find a late finish after Teixeira slows down.
Zane picks Pavlovich, stating that Teixeira's recent fight against Tai Tuivasa showed he still has major defensive flaws and relies on wrestling to survive. Pavlovich is a much better striker with a working jab and huge power, and he knocked out both Tuivasa and Lewis quickly. Zane notes that Teixeira has potential but hasn't had time to improve since his last fight three months ago, and Pavlovich is a terrible matchup for him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 61 of 133 | 45% | 63 of 136 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 45 of 117 | 38% | 45 of 117 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 9 of 28 | 32% | 11 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 11 of 34 | 32% | 11 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 22 of 43 | 51% | 22 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 20 of 37 | 54% | 20 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 30 of 62 | 48% | 30 of 62 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 14 of 46 | 30% | 14 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 61 of 133 | 45% | 35 of 104 | 12 of 14 | 14 of 15 | 60 of 131 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 45 of 117 | 38% | 27 of 88 | 4 of 10 | 14 of 19 | 45 of 114 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 9 of 28 | 32% | 6 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 11 of 34 | 32% | 5 of 20 | 1 of 4 | 5 of 10 | 11 of 31 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sergei Pavlovich | 22 of 43 | 51% | 13 of 32 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 20 of 37 | 54% | 15 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sergei Pavlovich | 30 of 62 | 48% | 16 of 48 | 6 of 6 | 8 of 8 | 30 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 14 of 46 | 30% | 7 of 36 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 14 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Next up is the lone heavyweight bout of the evening—despite Brian Ortega’s best efforts—as Cortes-Acosta will look to build on his five-fight win streak and certify himself a legitimate title contender. Opposite the surging “Salsa Boy” will be Pavlovich, who seeks to reaffirm his own contender status after righting the ship against Jairzinho Rozenstruik back in February. Tasked with keeping things nice and clean will be referee Marc Goddard. Both big men are in orthodox stance, and both send out tentative jabs in the opening moments. They end up doing some lead-hand jousting as neither seems to want to be the first to go. Pavlovich is calmly maneuvering Cortes-Acosta into the cage. He comes off the fence swinging and there is an inadvertent clash of heads, but both men keep on fighting. They meet near the center of the cage and exchange a flurry of punches, with both men landing cleanly. Cortes-Acosta, far from being backed off by the Russian’s vaunted power, seems emboldened, stepping into the pocket and unloading. He lands several solid punches and takes a big one from Pavlovich in return. Cortes-Acosta lands a hard leg kick and gets countered hard with a right hand over the top. A minute left in the round and both fighters have taken some serious fire but neither is backing down. Cortes-Acosta surges forward and eats a right uppercut. The horn sounds.
10-9 Pavlovich.
Round 2
Cortes-Acosta and Pavlovich pick up right where they left off, and Pavlovich catches his man with another sneaky uppercut as he exits the pocket. Cortes-Acosta lands a good jab, and Pavlovich flicks out a front kick up the middle. Cortes-Acosta wades into range with a pair of haymakers, which Pavlovich slips. Pavlovich lands a big left-right combo that hurts the Panamanian. Cortes-Acosta stumbles back into the fence but recovers quickly, and they go back to work. Cortes-Acosta scores with a hard calf kick, and Pavlovich is showing the damage from that one and the several he took in Round 1. Pavlovich cuts off the cage nicely, walks Cortes-Acosta to the warning track and nails him with two hard punches. Cortes-Acosta takes a kick to the midsection, gestures at his cup and appears to want the foul called, but Goddard tells them it was on the belt and to keep fighting. Pavlovich is gradually taking over this fight on the feet, as he is starting to find Cortes-Acosta’s head with his jab and cross over and over again.
10-9 Pavlovich.
Round 3
The final frame opens up, as the first two did, with the heavyweight contenders measuring each other for big right hands in the pocket. Cortes-Acosta lands another hard leg kick and Pavlovich responds with one of his own. Pavlovich cracks Cortes-Acosta with a huge right hand that staggers him, but he recovers in a flash and makes the universal “that didn’t hurt” hand sign. Pavlovich calmly steps forward and appears to have taken his foe’s measure. Cortes-Acosta is reaching and lunging to land his punches, while Pavlovich is composed, squarely over his feet and catching him with clean counters. He is outclassing Cortes-Acosta at this point, and short of some heavyweight weirdness, the main question remaining is whether he will score the knockout. Pavlovich tags Cortes-Acosta with a pair of huge hooks that make him stumble, but doesn’t press the issue. Cortes-Acosta rebounds from the fence, wades back in and gets clocked again. Cortes-Acosta hears the 10-second clapper and gestures at the floor, but Pavlovich is not particularly interested in being on the wrong side of any last-second heroics. The final horn sounds on a quietly dominant performance by the Russian.
10-9 Pavlovich (30-27 Pavlovich).
The Official Result
Sergei Pavlovich def. Waldo Cortes-Acosta via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo is confident in Waldo Cortes Acosta as a dog, calling him more well-rounded, athletic, and durable. He notes that Pavlovich is one-dimensional as a boxer and that Waldo can shoot takedowns and has a giant chin. He has a moneyline bet on Waldo at +225, which he thinks is crazy. He references Waldo's toughness and evolution as a fighter.
Big Brady picks Sergei Pavlovich to win, but with hesitation due to Pavlovich's recent lack of killer instinct since being knocked out by Aspinall. He notes that Pavlovich has been hesitant in recent fights, but if the old Pavlovich shows up, he will knock out Cortes Acosta in the first round. He is worried Pavlovich might stick at range or wrestle, making the fight harder.
Connor is confident Pavlovich should win, as he is the first elite-level heavyweight Cortes Acosta has faced. He notes that Pavlovich has better punching mechanics, more power, and a significant reach advantage (84 inches vs 78). However, he worries that Pavlovich might get deer-in-the-headlights against Cortes Acosta's size and durability, leading to a staring contest. Connor also mentions that Pavlovich looked good in his last fight, showing improved wrestling and striking choices.
The host initially thought he would like the plus money on Cortes Acosta, but after seeing the confidence and discipline from Pavlovich in his last fight, he thinks Pavlovich can shut down the jab of Cortes Acosta and land big shots leading to knockdowns, knockouts, or takedowns. He expects Pavlovich to be in the driver's seat and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round KO. He highlights Pavlovich's 14-inch reach advantage and believes he is more athletic, faster, and more powerful than Cortes Acosta. He criticizes Cortes Acosta's close decisions against unranked opponents and notes that Pavlovich has finished similar fighters quickly. He also mentions that Pavlovich can use grappling and low kicks if needed.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Cortes Acosta's style is a neutralizer that relies on not doing anything stupid, but Pavlovich's power and athleticism should overwhelm him. He points out that Pavlovich's wins often come from opponents freaking out, but he still has the tools to win. Zane is hopeful Pavlovich can make the fight entertaining.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 25 of 60 | 41% | 145 of 208 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 6:17 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 17 of 55 | 30% | 23 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 32 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:09 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 3 of 19 | 15% | 39 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 74 of 93 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:49 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 4 of 23 | 17% | 6 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 25 of 60 | 41% | 21 of 55 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 17 of 55 | 30% | 7 of 43 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 9 | 17 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 11 of 23 | 47% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 7 of 15 | 46% | 0 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sergei Pavlovich | 3 of 19 | 15% | 2 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 6 of 17 | 35% | 3 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sergei Pavlovich | 11 of 18 | 61% | 10 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 4 of 23 | 17% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Business picks up in the heavyweight division, where Pavlovich (18-3, 6-3 UFC) sets his sights on Rozenstruik (15-5, 9-5 UFC) in a three-round showcase. They have nine sub-minute finishes between them. Smith handles the refereeing duties. The former training partners are ready to go. They meet in the middle without a glove touch. Rozenstruik lands an inside leg kick. Pavlovich answers. The Russian paws with his jab, hoping to exploit his reach advantage. He follows a jab with a thudding overhand right but elects not to follow up. Inside leg kick from Rozenstruik. Neither man looks to eager to throw midway through the round. Pavlovich flicks out his jab and steps forward behind another one-two. Rozenstruik rolls with it. Action somewhat tepid thus far. Low kicks from both men. Smith warns Pavlovich about extending his fingers. The Russian connects with an overhand right. Rozenstruik loses his balance while avoiding an overhand right and winds up on his back, pinned beneath his monstrous counterpart. Pavlovich works his ground-and-pound in half guard. Thirty seconds to go. Body-head shots from the Russian, who looks to have salted away this round.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Round 2
And away we go for the second round. Rozenstruik feints a low kick and thinks better of it. Pavlovich probes with his jab. Rozenstruik down blocks a front kick to the body. Pavlovich resets, keeps his head and feet moving and hunts for potential openings. Again, neither man eager to throw. Inside leg kick from Rozenstruik. Pavlovich steps forward with a left hook, then evades the return fire. Fans growing restless with the inactivity. Pavlovich connects with a counter right hook, drives forward and secures a takedown. He lands in half guard and throws his ground-and-pound into gear. Pavlovich swings his left hand into the Surinamese kickboxer’s head repeatedly, doing more than enough to avoid a restart. Rozenstruik going nowhere with less than a minute on the clock. Looks like he will head to the third round in a significant hole on the scorecards. Pavlovich peppers him with short punches until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Round 3
Rozenstruik likely needs a finish here. The flick jabs at one another. Pavlovich lands with a left hook. Smith asks for more action. They trade powerful left hooks. Neither man goes down. More jabs from both man. Pavlovich steps into a body lock behind an overhand right and secures a takedown. With three minutes to go, Rozenstruik’s situation has grown downright dire. He has shown no ability to get back to his feet thus far. Pavlovich works in half guard, scoring with left hands to the body and forearm strikes to the head. Rozenstruik still flat on his back at the base of his cage. Pavlovich staying busy, even though he has not yet landed anything of consequence. He mixes left hands to the body with rights to the head. Rozenstruik gets to his knees with a minute to go and finally gets back to his feet. They separate with 30 seconds on the clock. Pavlovich buckles his opponent with a counter left hook. Rozenstruik lunges in with a left hook, but the Hail Mary finish he seeks fails to materialize.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 30-27 Pavlovich
Scottie Smith scores the round: 30-27 Pavlovich
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 30-27 Pavlovich
The Official Result
Sergei Pavlovich def. Jairzinho Rozenstruik—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik, citing his technical striking and counter-striking ability. He notes that Sergei Pavlovich struggles against a jab, as seen in his loss to Volkov. He believes Rozenstruik's Muay Thai and patience will allow him to frustrate Pavlovich and take over as the fight goes on. He acknowledges Pavlovich's power and speed but thinks Rozenstruik's technique wins.
Big Brady thinks Sergei Pavlovich needs to be aggressive to win. He notes Pavlovich looked terrible against Volkov when he wasn't aggressive, but when he rushes forward he knocks people out. Brady believes if Pavlovich brings aggression, he will sleep Jairzinho Rozenstruik in the first round. He chalks up the Volkov fight to them being friends/training partners.
Connor picks Pavlovich, believing he can overwhelm Rozenstruik early with his power. He notes that Rozenstruik is a trigger counter puncher who stands with locked knees, making him vulnerable to a bull rush. Connor thinks Pavlovich's loss to Volkov was due to familiarity and that he will revert to his aggressive style. However, he acknowledges that if Pavlovich hesitates or tries to be technical, he will lose.
James picks Pavlovich to win by knockout in round one, but he is not confident and sees value on Rozenstruik. He notes Pavlovich's tendency to fade if he doesn't get an early KO, and that Rozenstruik has a chance to win by decision or knockout in later rounds. He mentions Rozenstruik's decision prop at +700 as a potential small play. He is undecided on betting Rozenstruik.
Rozenstruik is the technically better striker and will use his mobility, straight jabs, and counters to pick apart Pavlovich's wild combinations. He is expected to win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round TKO. He believes Pavlovich has a great chin and will remind people he is a top heavyweight. He notes Rozenstruik was finished by Volkov and that Pavlovich took a beating from Volkov but never got finished. He expects a dominant performance.
Zane picks Rozenstruik, arguing that Pavlovich is a one-dimensional brawler who has not evolved. He notes that Rozenstruik is a durable counter puncher who can settle in and pick apart aggressive fighters. Zane believes Pavlovich's lack of a range game and poor fight IQ will be exposed, and that Rozenstruik's trigger countering will catch him coming in.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 46 of 134 | 34% | 46 of 134 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 83 of 159 | 52% | 83 of 160 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 15 of 43 | 34% | 15 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 26 of 50 | 52% | 26 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 15 of 39 | 38% | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 31 of 55 | 56% | 31 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 16 of 52 | 30% | 16 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 26 of 54 | 48% | 26 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 46 of 134 | 34% | 38 of 120 | 7 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 46 of 134 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 83 of 159 | 52% | 35 of 89 | 16 of 28 | 32 of 42 | 83 of 159 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 15 of 43 | 34% | 14 of 40 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 26 of 50 | 52% | 9 of 25 | 6 of 10 | 11 of 15 | 26 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkov | 15 of 39 | 38% | 10 of 33 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 31 of 55 | 56% | 9 of 24 | 6 of 12 | 16 of 19 | 31 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkov | 16 of 52 | 30% | 14 of 47 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 26 of 54 | 48% | 17 of 40 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 8 | 26 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pavlovich (-218), Volkov (+180)
Round 1
The high-stakes, all-Russian, heavyweight co-main event kicks off, with Jason Herzog on referee duty. Volkov immediately goes to his front kick up the middle, trying to keep the shorter power puncher at bay. Pavlovich stalks, flicking out his long jab and looking for opportunities to spring into range on his towering foe. Pavlovich comes inside and is met by a hard jab, then lands on of his own. Volkov plants a kick on the liver, and ducks a vicious overhand counter. Volkov throws a jab to the body and Pavlovich comes back with a right high kick that lands on the shoulder. Under 90 seconds to go in the round, and everything is still tense, tentative; it feels as though either man might land a fight-ending blow at any moment. Volkov reaches out with a southpaw left cross and slips the counter. The horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Round 2
Volkov is again mobile, throwing single and double jabs while sliding around the outside of the cage. A huge overhand right from Pavlovich misses just short. Volkov switches stances freely, using kicks to disguise them. Pavlovich throws a high kick that bounces off Volkov’s shoulder as he turns. Pavlovich is stalking, trying to cut off the cage. He is bleeding from the bridge of the nose, thanks to the reliable jab and one-two of Volkov. Volkov reaches out with a slow kick that slaps off the arms, then retreats as Pavlovich surges forward with punches. Volkov throws his teep up the middle, the ball of his foot connecting with the midsection of Pavlovich. Pavlovich catches Volkov with a big right hand that causes him to stagger. Volkov seems to recover, however, moving laterally and avoiding any follow-up. Volkov connects with a standing hammerfist. Pavlovich continues to follow, but can’t land anything of consequence before the round expires.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Round 3
Round 3 opens as the first two did, with Volkov in southpaw, moving laterally around the outside as orthodox Pavlovich gives chase. The face of Pavlovich is showing the wear of two good rounds of patient, methodical jabs and crosses from his countryman. Pavlovich eats a jab and lunges in with a big right hand that doesn’t quite land squarely. Volkov sticks Pavlovich with a lead right hand and eats a three-piece combo in return. Volkov looks loose, throwing hard punches and willingly engaging, despite likely being ahead on the cards. His corner is audibly screaming at him. Halfway through the round, the pace has settled back down, and Pavlovich is plodding forward, walking right into the push kick and jab of Volkov. Pavlovich explodes forwards with a pair of punches that are mostly parried. Pavlovich dips and drives Volkov to the cage, perhaps looking for a takedown, but gives up on the attempt with 30 seconds to go. Pavlovich comes forward and punches the body, and catches Volkov cleanly on the shin at the 10-second clapper. Volkov eats it like a blini, returning fire with a head kick. The final horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (30-27 Volkov)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (30-27 Volkov)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (30-27 Volkov)
The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Sergei Pavlovich via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Volkov, citing his height, reach, experience, and well-rounded game. He thinks Volkov will slow the pace, lean on Pavlovic, and grind out a win. He notes Pavlovic is a powerful boxer but lacks cardio and wrestling. He believes the friendship between them will lead to a feeling-out process, making the over 1.5 rounds a good bet. He placed a bet on over 1.5 rounds at plus money.
Big Brady picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round knockout, citing his devastating power and Volkov's admission that Pavlovich hurts him in sparring. He notes that if Volkov tries to wrestle, it's not his game, and striking with Pavlovich is dangerous. Brady expects Pavlovich to swarm and finish early.
Cody picks Volkov as an underdog, highlighting his reach, counter-striking, and cardio advantage. He believes Volkov can use kicks to keep distance, time Pavlovich's charges with counters, and potentially take the fight to the ground where Pavlovich is vulnerable. He notes Pavlovich's tendency to walk straight in with his hands down.
Daniel Vreeland picks Alexander Volkov as the underdog, citing Pavlovich's lack of experience past round one in the UFC and potential cardio issues. He believes Volkov can use his reach, jabs, and teeps to pick Pavlovich apart if he survives the early onslaught. However, he is hesitant because Pavlovich's power could end the fight early.
Jacob picks Volkov, noting he doesn't lose to strikers and knows how to keep range and mix in takedowns. He worries about the friendship angle potentially leading to a sparring match, but thinks if Pavlovic pulls punches, Volkov wins. He also notes Pavlovic looks jacked but that might work against his cardio. He advises staying away from betting on this fight entirely.
JP is a Volkov hater and confidently picks Pavlovich by KO/TKO, citing Pavlovich's wins over Curtis Blaydes, Tai Tuivasa, and Derrick Lewis. He expects Pavlovich to clip Volkov early. Brevan disagrees, picking Volkov by decision, arguing that Volkov's size, chin, and experience will take Pavlovich into deep waters. He notes Volkov's technical striking and ability to survive round one. The hosts have opposing picks.
Paul agrees with the underdog pick, citing Volkov's length, experience, and submission threat. He notes that Pavlovich is a battering ram but has shown vulnerability when taken down, as seen against Aspinall. Paul believes Volkov can survive the early storm and take over in later rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich over Alexander Volkov, but with hesitation. He acknowledges Volkov's toughness and kicking game, especially against plodding opponents, but believes Pavlovich's power and pressure will eventually catch Volkov against the cage. He notes that Volkov tends to back up and shell up, which could lead to a finish. He also mentions that Pavlovich's reach and head-hunting style are threats, but admits Volkov is a live underdog and the odds should be closer.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 0 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 1 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 0 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 1 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 10 of 14 | 71% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 10 of 14 | 71% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aspinall (-118), Pavlovich (-102)
Round 1
The interim heavyweight strap looms, while current champ Jon Jones is on the mend from shoulder surgery. It is unclear if the winner of this fight will face the victor between the rescheduled Jones-Stipe Miocic tilt that may happen next year, as a lot of factors remain. This silver medal will be vied for by a pair of finishers that have each claimed six victories opposite a single defeat in the UFC thus far, and in those 14 fights, only Aspinall (13-3, 6-1 UFC) has reached Round 2. Once. The betting line that Pavlovich (18-1, 6-1 UFC) and Aspinall reach the final bell is currently around -1400, although that same prop for Jailton Almeida and Derrick Lewis last week was an astounding -3500, and everyone knows what happened. This is MMA, where anything can and often does happen. The fighters share an embrace when brought together, and referee Dan Miragliotta takes a deep breath. Pavlovich keeps his left hand out early to measure, and Aspinall kicks the lead leg in a hurry. Aspinall splits the guard with a front kick that just grazes the midsection, and a kick is checked by Pavlovich. A flurry from the Russian dislodges Aspinall’s mouthpiece, and he appears surprised at the power that came his way as he resets it. Pavlovich blocks a high kick and crowds his man with an overhand right that connects and hurts Pavlovich. Aspinall reaches out with a left, and follows with a momentous right hook that collides square into the temple. Pavlovich’s eyes go wide as his balance gives out, and he slowly collapses to his back like a flan in a cupboard. Confidence through the roof, Aspinall pounces, and he completely hammers the nail with three hammerfists before Miragliotta reaches him to shove the new champion off of the fallen Russian. Aspinall has done it, becoming the third Brit to claim a UFC belt, and joining Michael Bisping and Leon Edwards. What a night of fights so far, and there is one more championship to go.
The Official Result
Tom Aspinall def. Sergei Pavlovich R1 1:09 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Aspinall, citing his well-roundedness and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Pavlovich has insane power but is untested in later rounds and against takedowns. He thinks Aspinall's wrestling and BJJ will be the difference, but he is not betting due to the even odds and volatility.
Big Brady slightly leans Tom Aspinall, citing his multiple paths to victory. He notes Aspinall has a significant advantage on the ground with his BJJ and ground-and-pound, while Pavlovich has shown nothing off his back. However, he acknowledges Pavlovich's terrifying power and that Aspinall must get the fight to the mat. Brady says he probably won't bet the moneyline but might look at a prop.
Cody leans Pavlovich, citing Aspinall's questionable cardio after the first round and his knee injury history. He thinks Pavlovich's power and pressure will be too much, and that Aspinall hasn't proven he can go into deep waters. He notes Pavlovich's training partners praise his cardio, and he believes Pavlovich will land something big and take over.
James picks Tom Aspinall, believing he should be a decent favorite despite the even line. He sees the striking as roughly 50/50, but gives Aspinall 80% of the grappling upside. He notes Pavlovich's takedown defense is untested and Aspinall has athletic takedowns. He acknowledges the short notice for Aspinall but thinks it matters less at heavyweight. He sees Aspinall having more paths to win: decision, submission, or knockout.
Aspinall's speed, agility, and athleticism will be key. He can land a straight right or secure a takedown and dominate from top position. Pavlovich's grappling vulnerability was exposed by Overeem. Aspinall's physicality will allow him to snatch the victory. Expects a finish, calling it round two. Short notice is less of a concern at heavyweight.
Paul is a believer in Pavlovich, having taken him at +135 earlier. He dismisses the Overeem loss as a debut five years ago, noting Pavlovich has improved immensely at Eagles MMA. He thinks Pavlovich's takedown defense and devastating power make him a problem, and that Aspinall's cardio and durability are unproven.
The MMA Guru picks Tom Aspinall, citing his superior movement and fight IQ. He notes that Pavlovich's opponents have stood still, while Aspinall will use footwork, feints, and takedown threats. He predicts Aspinall will get a takedown and submit Pavlovich in round two, possibly with a rear-naked choke. He also mentions Pavlovich's high activity may lead to accumulated injuries.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 1 | 36 of 85 | 42% | 36 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 14 of 56 | 25% | 14 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 1 | 36 of 85 | 42% | 36 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 14 of 56 | 25% | 14 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 36 of 85 | 42% | 30 of 78 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Curtis Blaydes | 14 of 56 | 25% | 11 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 14 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 36 of 85 | 42% | 30 of 78 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Curtis Blaydes | 14 of 56 | 25% | 11 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 14 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Blaydes (-170), Pavlovich (+145)
Round 1
The main event is upon us, and it is a heavyweight clash that should not last too terribly long. In the one corner, Russian knockout artist Pavlovich (17-1, 5-1 UFC) plies his trade in search of his sixth straight stoppage victory due to strikes. In the other, Blaydes (17-3, 1 NC; 12-3, 1 NC UFC) seeks his long-awaited championship opportunity, and he answers with 71% of his own wins coming by some variation of knockout. In their combined 34 pro wins, neither man has performed a submission, and it is unlikely to come in this five-rounder. Before trying to knock the other’s melon into the third row, they respectfully touch ‘em up and exchange a stoic nod. Referee Marc Goddard is ready for what comes next…or so he hopes. Blaydes sticks out a jab and a sweeping leg kick in the opening seconds, and Pavlovich is out of the way from that and a subsequent right hand. Pavlovich fires off a right hand, and even hitting the guard, it gets Blaydes’ attention. Pavlovich comes out swinging, and Blaydes counters with a solid check right hook. Blaydes lands two more when Pavlovich is throwing recklessly, making the Russian start to brawl. Pavlovich drills Blaydes with a left, and Blaydes gives it right back without batting an eye. The chins are tested and both make it through the first surges. Blaydes fires off a leg kick after a jab, and it makes Pavlovich drag it out of the way to take some of the sting out of it. Blaydes kicks on the outside to stop this, and Pavlovich winds up with a bomb of a right hand that glances off the side of the head. Blaydes hits the deck, but he pushes up and springs to his feet, seemingly flash knocked down and not hurt. Blaydes attacks the leg, and Pavlovich rocks him with a jab. Pavlovich lets go with a long series of punches, and Blaydes takes several of them flush, gives a few back, and shoots for a takedown. The Russian shuts him down and knocks him back to the wall, where he gets off right hands but his jab might be the one affecting Blaydes more.
Blaydes backpedals, and Pavlovich splits the guard with a shovel uppercut of a right hand. As Pavlovich continues throwing caution to the wind and hurting Blaydes again and again with his fists, a sharp right hand drops Blaydes to the floor. Knowing the finish is right around the corner, Pavlovich punches Blaydes out with four more punishing left hands, and Goddard has seen enough.
This is a major statement for Pavlovich, who has now racked up six straight first-round knockouts – a UFC record at least in the modern era when fights lasted more than one round. Pavlovich very confidently asks where his belt is, and challenges Jon Jones and any other top heavyweight to take him down. If he gets the next crack at the heavyweight crown, we will absolutely be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Sergei Pavlovich def. Curtis Blaydes R1 3:08 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Curtis Blaydes because of his elite wrestling, which he believes will be the deciding factor. He notes that Blaydes averages over six takedowns per fight and has fast, clean entries. He acknowledges Pavlovich's dangerous striking and knockout power, but thinks Blaydes can survive the early rounds and then take over with wrestling. He mentions Blaydes' three knockout losses but still favors him. He is not betting on this fight.
Big Brady picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round knockout, specifically in the first two minutes. He notes that Pavlovich is very live to starch Blaydes early if Blaydes tries to strike. Blaydes has a clear path to victory via takedown, but if he doesn't shoot immediately, Pavlovich's power could end the fight. Brady thinks it's a 50/50 fight but leans Pavlovich because of his knockout power and Blaydes's tendency to fall in love with striking. He also mentions Pavlovich's poor ground game from past fights, but believes the knockout comes first.
Cody picks Pavlovich, emphasizing his first-round knockout streak and the fact that his only UFC loss was to Overeem in his debut at age 26. He argues Pavlovich has improved since then, trains at Tiger Muay Thai, and has a wrestling background. Cody criticizes Blaydes for sometimes choosing to strike instead of wrestling, as seen against Lewis and Daukaus, and notes that even when Blaydes gets takedowns, he doesn't always do damage. He believes Pavlovich can get back to his feet and land a knockout.
Connor picks Blaydes confidently, arguing that Blaydes does something no other heavyweight does: wrestle with diverse takedowns and control. He points out that Pavlovich's grappling is non-existent, as shown when Overeem took him down and he didn't know what to do. He also notes that Blaydes is durable and has weathered big shots before, and that Pavlovich's striking falls apart when he's not winning.
Curtis Blaydes has improved striking and distance management, using kicks and combinations to avoid trading in the pocket. He has the wrestling advantage and can take the fight to the ground, where he can control or finish. Pavlovich is a dangerous power puncher but tends to thrive when opponents exchange with him; Blaydes will not do that. The only loss on Pavlovich's record came via Alistair Overeem, who now trains with Blaydes, giving Blaydes insight. Blaydes is the more well-rounded fighter with better tools and experience.
Paul picks Pavlovich as a plus money underdog, citing his first-round finishing streak and heavy hands. He acknowledges Blaydes' wrestling and cardio advantages but believes Pavlovich's power and youth (30 at heavyweight) give him a real chance. He notes Pavlovich's wrestling base and training at Tiger Muay Thai, and points out that Blaydes has been knocked out by power punchers before. Paul also mentions a prop for Pavlovich to win in round one at plus 300.
The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich after initially leaning toward Blaydes. He rewatched Blaydes' fights and found them less impressive, noting Blaydes is skittish against powerful strikers like Derrick Lewis and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. He believes Pavlovich's takedown defense has improved and that he will hurt Blaydes on the feet, stuff takedowns, and finish him. He predicts a first-round TKO.
Zane picks Blaydes despite acknowledging Pavlovich's knockout power. He notes that Blaydes is a diverse wrestler who can take down and control heavyweights, and that Pavlovich's grappling is non-existent as seen against Overeem. However, he is hesitant because Blaydes has been knocked out before and often spends time standing early, which is dangerous against a power puncher like Pavlovich.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 2 | 23 of 44 | 52% | 23 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 2 | 23 of 44 | 52% | 23 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 2 of 10 | 20% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 23 of 44 | 52% | 23 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 2 of 10 | 20% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 23 of 44 | 52% | 23 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 8 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pavlovich (-210), Tuivasa (+180)
Round 1
Referee Dan Miragliotta will have his work cut out for him in this heavyweight collision, as Tuivasa (14-4, 8-4 UFC) and Pavlovich (16-1, 4-1 UFC) combine for 26 knockouts in their 30 wins, with no submissions to either’s credit. The triumphant big man here might be the closest of all the 30 competitors this evening to a title shot, and this potential brawl is preceded by a clap of hands and a hug. Pavlovich moves in to the center of the cage, pushing out jabs, and he lifts his leg to avoid a low kick. The Russian walks forward to throw hands, and he stings Tuivasa with a few punches, only for “Bam Bam” to swing right back and hurt Pavlovich. The power of Pavlovich cannot be denied, as he blasts Tuivasa with ferocious punches, tearing Tuivasa’s skin open with the impact of his fists. Tuivasa hit the ground, and springs back up while blood starts pouring out of the left side of his eye, and Pavlovich’s accurate and straight punches find the mark while Tuivasa swings wildly.
Tuivasa wings a left hand, and Pavlovich tags his man twice and drills an uppercut that knocks the Aussie clear off his feet. When Tuivasa hits the mat on his face, Pavlovich drives home a few academic punches to make sure the job is done, and Tuivasa continues to leak crimson fluid all over the mat while Pavlovich beats on him. Miragliotta intervenes when it is clear that Tuivasa is done here and teetering on the edge of consciousness
, and Pavlovich may have just earned the biggest win of his career and placed himself right in top contendership position. This performance unquestionably sends a message to the rest of the heavyweights that this brick-fisted Russian is a force to be reckoned with.
The Official Result
Sergei Pavlovich def. Tai Tuivasa R1 0:54 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Tai Tuivasa, citing his better leg kicks and chin. He notes both fighters have zero takedowns in the UFC, so it will be a striking match. He thinks Tuivasa's power and durability give him the edge, but acknowledges heavyweights can end anytime. He won't bet either side but recommends using Monkey Knife Fight's Knockout Kings prop because one of them will get knocked out.
Big Brady picks Pavlovich to win by first-round knockout, citing his nine-inch reach advantage, power, and forward pressure. He notes Tuivasa has been knocked out before and Pavlovich has five first-round finishes in the UFC. He acknowledges Tuivasa's power but believes Pavlovich lands first.
Cody agrees with Paul, citing Tuivasa's durability, power, and ability to weather early storms. He notes Pavlovich has never been tested past the first round and questions his cardio. He sees Tuivasa as a live dog with a legitimate shot.
Daniel Levi leans Pavlovich based on momentum, massive reach advantage (84 inches), and confidence. He acknowledges Tuivasa's knockout power and the possibility of an upset, especially if the fight extends past the first round. He is not betting but expects an entertaining stand-up war.
The host leans towards Pavlovich, believing he has more paths to victory, including potentially using takedowns. He likes the over 1.5 rounds at plus 170, thinking both fighters will respect each other's power and the fight could go into the second or third round. He is cautious about betting heavy on a heavyweight fight due to volatility.
Paul loves Tuivasa at plus money. He notes Pavlovich's low-level competition and questions his cardio. He thinks Tuivasa's durability and power make him live, especially if the fight goes past the first round. He also mentions the under 5 minutes on PrizePicks.
The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich despite loving Tai Tuivasa. He notes Tuivasa took heavy damage against Cyril Gane and is returning too soon, while Pavlovich has devastating power and a huge reach advantage (84 inches vs 75). He predicts Pavlovich will land a big shot and finish Tuivasa in the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Derrick Lewis | 1 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Derrick Lewis | 1 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Derrick Lewis | 15 of 24 | 62% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Derrick Lewis | 15 of 24 | 62% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pavlovich (-125), Lewis (+105)
Round 1
The UFC knew exactly what it was doing when this featured heavyweight fight was booked. One man holds the promotion’s all-time knockout record, while the other is a sturdy Russian striker who has won his last three with his fists. Lewis (26-9, 1 NC; 17-7 UFC) who likely will end the night with the biggest pop from the crowd, will try to get back on track after a stunning knockout against the stoic Pavlovich (15-1, 3-1 UFC). Referee Dan Miragliotta will need to keep his wits about him at all times, lest he get clipped by an errant blow, as fighters sporting knockout rates of 80% or higher are about to clash in front of his eyes. Lewis trots out of his corner and offers a glove touch, and it is accepted as the “USA” chants rain down in support of him. Lewis starts with a leg kick, and Pavlovich strides forward and sticks out a jab. Lewis does not bite on any feints, and he scores with a big left hand. They proceed to start slugging it out, and Lewis gets rocked with a right hand on the jaw. The Russian, seeing that Lewis got tagged, cracks Lewis with an uppercut and a right hand that knocks Lewis face-first into the fencing. Lewis backpedals, and Pavlovich gives chase and bombards him with punches. Lewis bends over to avoid the blows, and Pavlovich slugs him with several punches to force Lewis to fall forward and bonk his head on the mat. Lewis springs right back up, and Miragliotta intervenes to stop the fight, clearly seeing something others did not see as Lewis protests the stoppage immediately. The fans are outraged by what they believe to be an early stoppage, and Lewis may have been in trouble but he appeared to have his wits about him given his incensed reaction. Regardless of the feelings on the finishing sequence, Pavlovich has just officially recorded the biggest win of his career in hostile territory. Big fights almost certainly loom for the man out of Eagles MMA.
The Official Result
Sergei Pavlovich def. Derrick Lewis R1 0:55 via TKO (Punches)
Big Brady picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round knockout. He cites Pavlovich's youth, reach advantage, and high volume striking. He notes Lewis has been finished in most of his losses and Pavlovich has power. He acknowledges Lewis can never be counted out but leans toward Pavlovich landing first.
Cody leans Pavlovich, noting his physical attributes: 84-inch reach, power, and youth. He acknowledges the unknown of Pavlovich's cardio beyond the first round, as all his UFC wins are first-round finishes. He also notes that Pavlovich is a wrestler but chooses to stand and bang, which could be dangerous against Lewis. He thinks Pavlovich's speed and boxing combinations will allow him to hit Lewis before Lewis can counter. He also mentions that Lewis is on the downswing, older, and less motivated.
Daniel likes Pavlovich's youth, output, size, and momentum after three straight wins. He notes Pavlovich's 5-inch reach advantage and his ability to flow punches into kicks. He acknowledges the risk of Lewis' one-punch knockout power, calling Lewis the greatest knockout artist in heavyweight history. He mentions Lewis' age (37), back problems, and tendency to sometimes not show up. He also notes that Lewis has lost in Texas before. He bet Pavlovich at plus 100 and is riding with it, but only one unit due to the volatility.
Preet picks Lewis, believing he will land his hammer and knock out Pavlovich in the first round. He notes Lewis's nuclear power and desire to make up for his loss to Tai Tuivasa. He thinks the odds are influenced by recency bias and that Lewis's Texas pride will drive him. He calls the fight volatile and prefers plus money on either side.
Paul picks Pavlovich but calls it a coin flip. He notes that neither fighter has much appetite for grappling and they will stand in the center. He mentions that Pavlovich has taken less punishment over his career and that Lewis is open to leg kicks and body shots, but Pavlovich is a head hunter. He thinks Pavlovich's reach and power are advantages, but he wouldn't be shocked if Lewis knocks him out. He also notes that Lewis is fighting in Texas and has a history of losing at home.
The MMA Guru predicts Sergei Pavlovich by first-round KO. He expects Pavlovich to land big jabs, push Lewis against the cage with knees, and eventually land a right hand that stuns Lewis. Pavlovich will follow up with ground-and-pound for the TKO. The Guru emphasizes Pavlovich's power and pressure.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Aspinall, citing his well-roundedness and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Pavlovich has insane power but is untested in later rounds and against takedowns. He thinks Aspinall's wrestling and BJJ will be the difference, but he is not betting due to the even odds and volatility.
Big Brady slightly leans Tom Aspinall, citing his multiple paths to victory. He notes Aspinall has a significant advantage on the ground with his BJJ and ground-and-pound, while Pavlovich has shown nothing off his back. However, he acknowledges Pavlovich's terrifying power and that Aspinall must get the fight to the mat. Brady says he probably won't bet the moneyline but might look at a prop.
Cody leans Pavlovich, citing Aspinall's questionable cardio after the first round and his knee injury history. He thinks Pavlovich's power and pressure will be too much, and that Aspinall hasn't proven he can go into deep waters. He notes Pavlovich's training partners praise his cardio, and he believes Pavlovich will land something big and take over.
James picks Tom Aspinall, believing he should be a decent favorite despite the even line. He sees the striking as roughly 50/50, but gives Aspinall 80% of the grappling upside. He notes Pavlovich's takedown defense is untested and Aspinall has athletic takedowns. He acknowledges the short notice for Aspinall but thinks it matters less at heavyweight. He sees Aspinall having more paths to win: decision, submission, or knockout.
Aspinall's speed, agility, and athleticism will be key. He can land a straight right or secure a takedown and dominate from top position. Pavlovich's grappling vulnerability was exposed by Overeem. Aspinall's physicality will allow him to snatch the victory. Expects a finish, calling it round two. Short notice is less of a concern at heavyweight.
Paul is a believer in Pavlovich, having taken him at +135 earlier. He dismisses the Overeem loss as a debut five years ago, noting Pavlovich has improved immensely at Eagles MMA. He thinks Pavlovich's takedown defense and devastating power make him a problem, and that Aspinall's cardio and durability are unproven.
The MMA Guru picks Tom Aspinall, citing his superior movement and fight IQ. He notes that Pavlovich's opponents have stood still, while Aspinall will use footwork, feints, and takedown threats. He predicts Aspinall will get a takedown and submit Pavlovich in round two, possibly with a rear-naked choke. He also mentions Pavlovich's high activity may lead to accumulated injuries.
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