UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024 · Catchweight (147.5 lb) · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 Next Fight
Age 37
Height 5' 11"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 33
Height 5' 9"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Damon Jackson
2.96 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
3.47 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
2.3 TD Avg
32.0% TD Acc.
37.0% TD Def.
1.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Alexander Hernandez
4.31 SLpM
40.0% Str. Acc.
4.5 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
1.14 TD Avg
36.0% TD Acc.
73.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Damon Jackson
Moneyline
Caesars +165
KO/TKO
BetWay +1000
Submission
FanDuel +500
Decision
BetRivers +540
Alexander Hernandez
Moneyline
BetWay -180
KO/TKO
BetWay +130
Submission
FanDuel +1500
Decision
FanDuel +440
Damon Jackson - Fight History
LOSS vs Jim Miller
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:44 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Damon Jackson 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Damon Jackson 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 10 of 24 41% 5 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 16 of 31 51% 8 of 17 6 of 12 2 of 2 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 10 of 24 41% 5 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 16 of 31 51% 8 of 17 6 of 12 2 of 2 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Damon Jackson vs. Jim Miller
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-170), Miller (+142)

Round 1
Two vets on the wrong end of 35 will be matched against one another as the prelims carry on. Miller (37-18, 1 NC; 26-17, 1 NC UFC) will be seeking to improve on his UFC-leading win tally, while Jackson (23-7-1, 1 NC; 6-5-1, 1 NC UFC) has regressed to the mean and is a loss away from a .500 record after two stints in the promotion. For as long as it lasts, this one should be a good one, and referee Keith Peterson is on top of the lightweight action as well as the nonsense. There is no glove touch that comes from the elder statesmen, as they want to go after it immediately. Jackson attacks first, connecting with a few power punches to introduce himself. Miller fires back with an overhand right, takes a right to the body and comes back with another clubbing punch. The two clash legs at the same time when kicking, and Miller dings Jackson with an uppercut when defending a single-leg takedown. Jackson pushes Miller to the wire, and chants for “Miller” drown out all other noise in the building. This energizes “A-10,” who breaks out of the clinch and stuffs another takedown to boot. Jackson punches his way into an exchange, and Miller cuts him when firing back. Miller further opens the cut on the eyebrow with a step-in elbow, and he swings a big right hand that is ducked and countered. Jackson tosses out a front kick, and Miller throws back with fire. Another front kick from Jackson gets in, and Miller pressures forward and whips a low kick that lands with a whump. Miller sits down with a left hand that makes both men take a step back, and he is prepared to defend against what comes next. Jackson dives after him, with an ill-advised naked takedown that is stopped in its tracks by a Miller guillotine choke.
Miller jumps guard to complete the submission, and as soon as Jackson hits the mat, he realizes the choke is so deep and so tight that he almost abandons ship immediately. Miller keeps squeezing for all his might, and Jackson decides against going out on his shield and surrenders.
It is the first time that Jackson has ever tapped in his long career, with his previous submission defeat of the technical variety that put him out. The ageless wonder does it again, submitting a man with incredible jiu-jitsu without taking much damage. The crowd goes wild, as the UFC’s all-time winningest fighters adds one more to the total. Miller tells commentator Joe Rogan that there is still tread left on the tires, and says he plans on making it to fight 50 in the UFC. On the other side of the equation—as there is the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat in almost every fight—Jackson removes his gloves and leaves them in the center of the Octagon, not wishing to speak to the crowd to give Miller his time to shine. Shine he did.

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Damon Jackson R1 2:44 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Angelo picks Damon Jackson, citing Jackson's striking improvements and wrestling. He believes Jackson will hang in striking, get takedowns, and control on top without being in danger. He notes Jim Miller's age and that his black belt is outdated. He placed a half-unit bet on Jackson at -150.

Angelo bet half a unit on Damon Jackson at -150.
"I threw a half a unit on Damon Jackson at minus5"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Big Brady picks Jim Miller by knockout, citing Miller's power and durability versus Jackson's chinny nature. He notes that Jackson gets hurt in every fight and looks like a wounded deer on the feet, while Miller still has power that lasts. He also mentions the return to old gloves, which he believes favors knockouts. He predicts a second-round knockout, though he acknowledges Jackson's path via takedowns.

"I'll take Jim Miller to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Cody picks Damon Jackson, citing Miller's age (41) and recent decline. He notes Miller's only path is an early finish, while Jackson has better durability and cardio. Cody expects Jackson to win a competitive decision, possibly by outworking Miller in the later rounds.

"I'm actually gonna take Damon Jackson for this one"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jim Miller

Connor picks Miller but with hesitation, noting that Jackson's game is 'chancey' and that Miller can still obliterate lower-level opponents. He points out that Jackson's wins are always scrappy and that Miller is a more reliable fighter. However, he acknowledges that Miller's stamina and directional issues could be exploited.

"I do not... I don't know. Damon jackson's game is it's just much more chancey than miller's. Yes. It's always been a thing like, you know, Jackson wins all the time. And so it's easy to we but i've talked …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Daniel Vreeland picks Damon Jackson via decision, expecting Miller to win the first round but fade. He notes Miller's history of fading after round one and Jackson's ability to grind out wins. He acknowledges Miller's early threat but believes Jackson can survive and take over in later rounds. He mentions Miller's recent loss to Bobby Green as evidence of his decline.

decision
"I'm gonna go Damon Jackson via decision here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Vreeland picks Miller as his dog, liking the plus money. He notes Miller is a durable veteran and that Jackson has lost three in a row. Vreeland expects Miller to win by decision, as Jackson is tough to finish.

Jim Miller wins by decision (+400)
"Jim Miller I like... better number too slightly plus 145"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Fox does not make a clear pick for this fight. He mentions Vreeland's pick but does not state his own opinion.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Damon Jackson

The host gives Miller a slight striking advantage but believes the fight will be dictated in the grappling realm, where Jackson should utilize his size and strength more effectively to get controlling positions and grind out a decision win.

"I'd give Miller the slight advantage in the Striking I do think it will be dictated in the grappling real and that's where Jackson should be able to utilize this SI and strength a little bit more effectively getting those …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Paul picks Damon Jackson, noting Miller is on his last legs and Jackson has good enough grappling to avoid being submitted. He expects Jackson to win a decision, possibly by outworking Miller. Paul is not betting the fight but leans Jackson.

"I won't be fading Jim Miller but I will be picking his opponent Damon Jackson"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

The MMA Guru picks Damon Jackson, expecting him to grapple and grind out a decision. He believes Jackson will take Miller down and hold him there, wearing him out. He notes Jackson's size and grappling ability, and doubts Miller can finish early.

decision win
"Damon Jackson's GNA half guard Camp Jim Miller it's going to happen... I can so see him getting taken down and held down by Damon Jackson"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jim Miller

Zane picks Miller despite acknowledging his age and stamina issues. He notes that Miller is still dangerous on the feet and harder to hurt than Jackson, who is hittable and structurally unsound. Zane thinks Miller's power and durability give him an edge, but he is hesitant because Miller tends to fade late and can be out-wrestled.

Odds: Miller opened -145, now +154; Jackson opened +114, now -174. Zane says 'you don't want damon jackson any wider than that over anyone'.
"I'm kind of tempted to pick jim miller here. It is his home division. I think he might feel kind of stronger than damon jackson's uh issues, too."
LOSS vs Chepe Mariscal
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Aug 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chepe Mariscal 0 32 of 49 65% 49 of 72 1 of 5 20% 0 1 4:18
Damon Jackson 0 73 of 100 73% 218 of 267 5 of 7 71% 0 2 8:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chepe Mariscal 0 18 of 27 66% 23 of 38 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:37
Damon Jackson 0 25 of 37 67% 53 of 69 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:05
2 Chepe Mariscal 0 8 of 12 66% 14 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:17
Damon Jackson 0 29 of 38 76% 94 of 114 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:30
3 Chepe Mariscal 0 6 of 10 60% 12 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:24
Damon Jackson 0 19 of 25 76% 71 of 84 1 of 2 50% 0 2 2:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chepe Mariscal 32 of 49 65% 5 of 16 26 of 32 1 of 1 5 of 15 27 of 34 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 73 of 100 73% 59 of 86 13 of 13 1 of 1 8 of 18 17 of 21 48 of 61
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chepe Mariscal 18 of 27 66% 3 of 10 15 of 17 0 of 0 3 of 8 15 of 19 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 25 of 37 67% 16 of 28 8 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 9 11 of 14 11 of 14
2 Chepe Mariscal 8 of 12 66% 0 of 2 7 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 2 7 of 10 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 29 of 38 76% 26 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 4 3 of 3 25 of 31
3 Chepe Mariscal 6 of 10 60% 2 of 4 4 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 5 5 of 5 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 19 of 25 76% 17 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 5 3 of 4 12 of 16
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal because he is the more well-rounded fighter with BJJ, kickboxing, and wrestling credentials, and is a dog who won't break. However, he is hesitant because Chepe is a favorite for the first time, his wins have been close, and Damon Jackson with a new hair transplant has been the best version of himself. He warns not to overexpose on Chepe.

Be careful; do not overly expose
"chpe is going to be the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Cody picks Mariscal because he is more durable, has a cast iron chin, judo black belt, trains at altitude with top fighters, and has good takedown defense. He notes Jackson needs to finish early and tends to gas, while Mariscal's forward pressure and volume will wear him down. Cody suggests a possible third-round finish.

Mariscal round three finish (plus 1000)
"chpe Marisol for my money's worth is just the more durable guy I mean when you look at Damon Jackson his best success is when he's able to get these guys down early submit them early"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Mariscal has a high work rate, good scrambling, and cardio that should overwhelm Jackson as the fight goes on. Jackson is dangerous early with submissions, but if he doesn't finish, Mariscal will take over in rounds two and three. The prediction is Mariscal by decision, with a possible third-round finish.

Mariscal by decision; possible third-round finish
"Jackson will have success early here but given the scrambling ability and just constant work rate of mariscal I think we're going to see Jackson really start to slow down and later on in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Paul echoes Cody's sentiments, highlighting Mariscal's activity, striking with ill intent, and ability to get back to his feet. He notes Jackson's history of gassing and that Mariscal has the dog in him. Paul also jokes about Jackson's new hair plugs giving him confidence.

"Maris skull's just the more active fighter more busy on the feet lands with a little bit more ill intent the risk of getting taken down controlled is there but we know he's going to be fighting tooth and nail …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

The MMA Guru picks Chepe Mariscal, comparing him to a slightly worse Dan Ige. He highlights Mariscal's scrambling ability, pressure, and striking advantage over Damon Jackson. He notes Jackson's grappling threat but believes Mariscal's 'ball of muscle' physique and urgency in scrambles will neutralize it. He also jokes about hairline envy affecting Jackson.

"I'm gonna go with shet mariscal over Damon Jackson... I just think he's levels above him on the feet and he'll keep scrambling with him"
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damon Jackson 1 32 of 87 36% 56 of 119 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:22
Alexander Hernandez 0 42 of 85 49% 85 of 135 3 of 7 42% 0 0 6:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damon Jackson 0 8 of 27 29% 10 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Alexander Hernandez 0 10 of 21 47% 36 of 49 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:35
2 Damon Jackson 0 19 of 49 38% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexander Hernandez 0 23 of 52 44% 33 of 65 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:22
3 Damon Jackson 1 5 of 11 45% 27 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:19
Alexander Hernandez 0 9 of 12 75% 16 of 21 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damon Jackson 32 of 87 36% 20 of 69 6 of 11 6 of 7 29 of 80 0 of 3 3 of 4
Alexander Hernandez 42 of 85 49% 20 of 60 10 of 12 12 of 13 30 of 68 11 of 16 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damon Jackson 8 of 27 29% 4 of 23 1 of 1 3 of 3 8 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 10 of 21 47% 3 of 13 2 of 3 5 of 5 8 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Damon Jackson 19 of 49 38% 11 of 35 5 of 10 3 of 4 19 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 23 of 52 44% 13 of 40 4 of 5 6 of 7 20 of 47 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Damon Jackson 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 2 3 of 4
Alexander Hernandez 9 of 12 75% 4 of 7 4 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 9 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Hernandez (147.5: Missed Weight) vs. Damon Jackson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-205), Jackson (+170)

Round 1
Serving as the co-headliner is a match previously scheduled at featherweight. Instead, Hernandez (14-7, 6-6 UFC) botched his weight cut and exceeded the limit by a pound and a half on his second attempt. He surrenders a percentage of his purse to Jackson (22-6-1, 1 NC; 5-4-1, 1 NC UFC). Both men have struggled as of late, with Hernandez going 1-3 in his last four while Jackson has dropped two in a row. One of these two will get in the win column shortly, if referee Jason Herzog has anything to say about it. Hernandez offers an apologetic glove touch, and the magnificently maned Jackson does not accept it. Jackson prods out a front kick, and he wings a right hand that misses by a wide margin. Hernandez comes back at him with a head kick that is easily blocked, and he whips a kick low at the lead wheel. Jackson throws back his own body kick, and he turns Hernandez with a low kick. They both load up with right hands, and Jackson attacks the calf again. Jackson just misses with a front kick aimed at the jaw, and he catches a lazy kick aimed his direction and grabs hold of the younger man. Jackson grapples Hernandez from behind, getting away with a fence grab as Jackson tries to get a hook in standing. Jackson scores a number of knees to the back of the thigh, until Hernandez explodes and gets away. Hernandez manages to lure Jackson into a brief brawl, and Jackson sits down on a calf kick to again fluster Hernandez. Hernandez keeps a poker face and boxes Jackson in the jaw. Jackson catches the body kick and tries to procure a takedown with it, and he presses Hernandez to the wire. Jackson doggedly pursues a single, and he places “The Great Ape” gingerly on his seat. Jackson looks for offense when he gets there, only to find Hernandez springing back up after all of that hard work. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Jackson

Round 2
Jackson begins the round with a head kick attempt, and he bloodies up his foe’s nose during a punch exchange. Jackson surges forward with two punches, and he turns his hips into a kick to the side. Hernandez tries to throw back a few times, but he misses the mark each time. Jackson jabs his way forward, and he hammers the calf with a kick. Jackson keeps doing work on the calf, and they both let loose with big haymaker right hands. Hernandez times a leg kick with an overhand right, and he counters with a solid right hand when Jackson tries to come back at him. Hernandez zips a left hand around the guard, and he leans back to let a head kick buzz past him. Hernandez chops at the front leg of his foe, and that reminds Jackson to do the same. Jackson rushes forward with punches, and Hernandez strafes to the side and eats a body kick on the way out. They both swing for the fences, and Jackson’s chin holds up although a cut opens up on the bridge of his nose. Hernandez targets jabs on that bloody spot, and he gets off a calf kick as he backs away. Jackson punches twice and hits a double, putting Hernandez on his side. This results in a stalemate until Jackson springs into action, and when Hernandez stands up, Jackson takes his back and gets a hook in. Jackson slithers his arm around the chin, and he lets it go to slug Hernandez in the chops repeatedly. The round ends as Jackson is pounding on him.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Jackson

Round 3
Jackson only needs a few seconds before delivering a fierce leg kick. When he throws a second, Hernandez times it and rifles a right hand straight down the middle. Jackson goes down like a sack of bricks, and Hernandez leaps on top of him and starts hunting for a choke. Jackson scrambles to get out of the initial danger, and Hernandez climbs into full mount and squeezes down with an arm-triangle choke. Jackson turns all the way around and fights back to his feet, and Hernandez charges at him throwing bombs. Jackson uses that momentum to turn the corner and pursue a takedown, and “The Great Ape” digs in his heels and does not hit the mat. Hernandez considers going for an ankle pick, and Jackson kicks off the cage and manages to take Hernandez’ back. Hernandez gets flattened out as Jackson starts working him with fists, until he powers back to his feet and tries to buck Jackson off of him. Jackson keeps tight and hangs on until Hernandez manages to work him off. Jackson turns through and goes for a single, dropping down to his knees to complete it. Jackson grinds on the younger fighter when he cannot complete the takedown, and they jockey for position against the cage. They turn one another around without gaining an advantage or landing much of note. Jackson sticks his tongue out, and he lands several elbows and punches to separate right before the horn sounds. Scores could be all over the map.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)

The Official Result
Damon Jackson def. Alexander Hernandez via Split Decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez but with very low confidence. He acknowledges Hernandez is the better overall fighter and athlete, but he hates the weight cut to 145 lbs, which he thinks makes Hernandez slower, chinny, and potentially cardio-compromised. He notes that Damon Jackson is the type of grappler who can spoil plans and slow the pace. Angelo says he is only picking Hernandez because he is better everywhere except BJJ, but he hates the weight cut.

"very low pick on Alexander Hernandez"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Big Brady picks Alexander Hernandez to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Hernandez has the tools to win, including takedown defense to stuff Jackson's shots, and is the much better striker. He questions Jackson's chin and believes Hernandez will knock him out early. However, he acknowledges that if the fight reaches the second round, Hernandez tends to slow down and get broken.

win by first round KO
"Hernandez ko1 for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Cody also picks Hernandez but is wary of betting him at -210. He notes Hernandez's explosive first round and power, but his cardio fades after 7.5 minutes. Cody thinks Hernandez likely disposes of Jackson in the first round, but if it goes longer, Jackson's craftiness and submission threat could flip the fight. He calls it a dodgy proposition.

"Alexander Hernandez gets the job done and takes him out in the first seven and a half minutes... but it's a dodgy proposition"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Damon Jackson to upset Alexander Hernandez. He argues Hernandez is a front-runner who fades after round one, citing examples like the Billy Quarantillo fight where Jackson dragged him into deep waters. Vreeland believes Jackson's awkward length and grappling can neutralize Hernandez's early explosiveness, and if the fight goes past the first round, Jackson will take over. He notes Hernandez's recent win over Bill Algeo was unimpressive because Algeo is not a finishing threat.

"I'm gonna go Damon Jackson here for the upset."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Hernandez is faster, more explosive, and has more power. Jackson will struggle to close the distance and get takedowns. Hernandez can land big shots and likely knock Jackson out. The under 2.5 rounds is a good play as the fight should end early.

Hernandez by KO; under 2.5 rounds
"I expect that to produce a Hernandez knockout but what I'm going to be looking to hone in on is the under two and a half which isus 170 a little bit chalky"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Paul picks Hernandez but is hesitant because Hernandez is inconsistent. He likes Hernandez's athleticism, speed, strength, and wrestling, and thinks he can ground-and-pound Jackson. However, he worries about Hernandez's cardio and confidence, noting that he falls off after the first round. Paul sees a path where Hernandez finishes Jackson early, but if it goes longer, Jackson's BJJ and durability could cause problems.

"I am going with Alexander Hernandez... he just seems maybe not the better fighter but just the better athlete"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The host struggles with this pick, noting Jackson's surprising wins (e.g., over Jim Miller) but criticizes his lack of punching conviction. He picks Hernandez as the younger, more explosive fighter with reach and good initial takedown defense. He envisions Hernandez starting fast and clipping Jackson, though he admits Jackson could lay on him. He ultimately goes with Hernandez, calling Jackson 'Mega Mind' and hoping to see him removed from the UFC.

"I think I'm going to go with the younger guy in Alexander Hernandez here he's got reach he has got good initial takedown defense"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 05, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Billy Quarantillo 0 100 of 188 53% 169 of 270 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:51
Damon Jackson 0 67 of 173 38% 75 of 184 3 of 13 23% 0 0 6:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Billy Quarantillo 0 15 of 35 42% 34 of 58 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Damon Jackson 0 28 of 62 45% 34 of 70 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:13
2 Billy Quarantillo 0 40 of 69 57% 58 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Damon Jackson 0 13 of 48 27% 15 of 50 1 of 7 14% 0 0 1:18
3 Billy Quarantillo 0 45 of 84 53% 77 of 121 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Damon Jackson 0 26 of 63 41% 26 of 64 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Billy Quarantillo 100 of 188 53% 45 of 124 49 of 57 6 of 7 58 of 140 42 of 48 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 67 of 173 38% 45 of 139 19 of 31 3 of 3 53 of 148 10 of 15 4 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Billy Quarantillo 15 of 35 42% 8 of 27 5 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 31 4 of 4 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 28 of 62 45% 19 of 48 8 of 13 1 of 1 23 of 52 1 of 2 4 of 8
2 Billy Quarantillo 40 of 69 57% 8 of 32 28 of 33 4 of 4 16 of 41 24 of 28 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 13 of 48 27% 5 of 36 7 of 11 1 of 1 6 of 38 7 of 10 0 of 0
3 Billy Quarantillo 45 of 84 53% 29 of 65 16 of 18 0 of 1 31 of 68 14 of 16 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 26 of 63 41% 21 of 55 4 of 7 1 of 1 24 of 58 2 of 3 0 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Angelo picks Billy Quarantillo but is hesitant, noting that two years ago Billy would be a lock. He highlights Billy's high volume striking (8 significant strikes per minute) and BJJ, but is concerned about his recent KO loss and takedown defense (58%). He thinks Billy needs to keep the jab in Damon's face to prevent clean shots and defend takedowns. He acknowledges Damon Jackson is dangerous and on a good run before his loss to Dan Ige.

"Billy is ultimately gonna be the pick here but I'm gonna need him to throw out a ton of volume"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Big Brady likes Quarantillo's high volume (8 significant strikes per minute) and power. He thinks Jackson's chin is questionable (all 5 losses by finish, 4 by KO). He expects Quarantillo to pressure Jackson, and even if taken down, Quarantillo will make Jackson work and slow him down. He predicts a late second-round KO.

Quarantillo by KO in round 2
"I like Billy Q to break Damon Jackson and give Damon Jackson his sixth finish loss"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Cody picks Quarantillo, citing his volume, cardio, durability, and BJJ. He notes Jackson's low output and tendency to fade in later rounds. He believes Quarantillo will wear Jackson down and win a decision or late finish. He also likes the over 72.5 significant strikes prop for Quarantillo.

Quarantillo over 72.5 significant strikes
"quaranteo over 72.5 significant strikes on prize picks uh looks right for the taking to me"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Daniel Levi picks Billy Quarantillo but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Quarantillo is a comeback fighter who often loses the first round, and that Jackson is a dangerous submission artist who could finish early. Levi believes Quarantillo's durability and late-round pressure will be key, and that he can survive Jackson's early grappling to win rounds two and three. He dislikes laying -175 on a comeback fighter but picks Quarantillo as a pure pick.

No specific prop bet. Notes that sharp action is conflicting.
"I'm picking Billy Q."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Damon Jackson

James sees value on Damon Jackson. He notes Quarantillo gets taken down often and puts himself in submission attempts, though he's good at escaping. Jackson has good cardio and can take Quarantillo down to stop his rhythm. James thinks Jackson can win but acknowledges Quarantillo's late-round pace could overtake him.

"I think there's some value on Damon Jackson... I'm gonna pick him outright to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Damon Jackson

Jackson is a strong grappler who can control the fight on the ground. Quarantillo usually gives up the first round and relies on cardio, but Jackson's wrestling should be enough to win rounds early and survive Quarantillo's third-round surge. I was surprised to see Jackson around +150 to +160; I think he's the better wrestler and will win by decision.

odds comment: surprised to see Jackson around +150/+160
"I was kind of surprised to see Jackson around that plus 150 plus 160 range I think he's deciding this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Quarantillo's durability and cardio advantage. He believes Jackson's only path is an early knockout, but if it goes past the first round, Quarantillo's pace will be too much. He suggests a live bet on Quarantillo after the first round.

"in a war of attrition Billy Q generally wins and uh and I think he's gonna do that here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

The host leans Billy Quarantillo, citing his striking edge and well-roundedness. He notes Quarantillo has never been submitted, which is key against Jackson's submission-heavy style. He thinks Jackson needs a finish to win, while Quarantillo can win a decision. However, he is not crazy about the -185 line and suggests waiting for it to drop to -170 or -175.

line movement from -178 to -185; suggests value on Damon Jackson if odds reach +165 or +170
"I will lean Billy Q to get the job done here"
LOSS vs Dan Ige
KO (punch) R2 4:13 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Ige 1 34 of 74 45% 40 of 81 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:18
Damon Jackson 0 36 of 100 36% 38 of 102 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Ige 0 21 of 45 46% 26 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
Damon Jackson 0 13 of 45 28% 13 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
2 Dan Ige 1 13 of 29 44% 14 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Damon Jackson 0 23 of 55 41% 25 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Ige 34 of 74 45% 17 of 54 13 of 15 4 of 5 28 of 65 6 of 9 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 36 of 100 36% 22 of 81 10 of 15 4 of 4 32 of 92 4 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Ige 21 of 45 46% 13 of 34 6 of 8 2 of 3 15 of 37 6 of 8 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 13 of 45 28% 7 of 37 4 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 42 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dan Ige 13 of 29 44% 4 of 20 7 of 7 2 of 2 13 of 28 0 of 1 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 23 of 55 41% 15 of 44 6 of 9 2 of 2 21 of 50 2 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Angelo picks Damon Jackson but is not confident enough to bet. He notes Dan Ige's tough competition but Jackson's relentless grappling and recent win streak. He mentions Jackson's takedowns and pressure could be key, but Ige's striking and durability make it close. He respects Jackson's run and picks him until he loses.

"I'm gonna respect the run that Damon Jackson is on ... I'm gonna pick him for this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Big Brady is confident in Dan Ige, viewing this as a massive step down in competition for Ige after facing top-10 opponents. He believes Ige has a clear striking advantage and power to finish, noting that Damon Jackson has been finished in all four of his losses. He expects Ige to land a body shot knockout in the second round, as Jackson's striking defense is poor and he leaves openings to the body. He also mentions that Ige's takedown defense is adequate and that Jackson's path to victory via grappling is unlikely.

Ige by second round knockout
"I like ige here I like him to knock out Damon Jackson probably a nice body shot there"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Cody agrees with Ige, emphasizing his durability and striking advantage. He notes Jackson's low output and that Ige has fought much tougher competition. He expects Ige to pressure forward and land big shots, while Jackson needs early takedowns to win.

"ige is insanely insanely durable he's going the full 15 against some of the best in the division and I think if this fight stays on the feet it's not even remotely competitive"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Connor picks Ige because he is a technically better fighter almost everywhere, with notable durability and a good chin. He notes that Ige has shown continual improvement in his striking and counter-punching, and that Jackson's chaotic style often leaves him open to being hurt. Connor also points out that Ige is well-rounded and has matured, avoiding the second-round fatigue that plagued him earlier in his career.

Odds: Ige opened +140, dropped to -112, currently -121. Jackson opened -160, jumped to -108, currently -101. Connor notes the odds are nearly even despite Ige's tougher competition.
"I'm picking you, Gay, but I'm interested. I'm interested to see this because David Jackson. David Jackson hasn't earned the fight either."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Jacob picks Damon Jackson despite bias against him for beating Pat Sabatini. He acknowledges Dan Ige is the better overall fighter but respects Jackson's run. He notes Jackson's grappling and toughness, and Ige's durability. He is not betting on the fight due to closeness.

"I'm going Damon Jackson"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Paul picks Ige, noting his durability and experience against elite competition (Korean Zombie, Josh Emmett). He believes Ige's striking volume and wrestling will outwork Jackson, who has shown low output and reliance on takedowns. He parlayed Ige with Umar and Rębecki at +167.

Parlayed with Umar and Rębecki at +167
"I'm gonna take the shot on 50K Danny yeah I already did take the shot on uh Danny guy I parlayed him with uh cousin Umar and uh Rebecca"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Zane picks Ige because he is a well-rounded fighter with good durability and has shown improvements in his striking. He notes that Jackson's chaotic style can create opportunities but Ige's experience against top competition and his ability to handle tough fights make him the safer pick. Zane also mentions that Ige's past conditioning issues seem to have been resolved.

Odds: Ige opened +140, dropped to -112, currently -121. Jackson opened -160, jumped to -108, currently -101. Zane thinks Ige should be a healthy favorite.
"I think he is really matured and gotten really comfortable in the cage no matter what happens. So easy Danny Gay pick in a fight that nonetheless I think is reasonably compelling for what it is."
WIN vs Pat Sabatini
TKO (punches) R1 1:09 · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Sep 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damon Jackson 0 11 of 20 55% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
Pat Sabatini 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damon Jackson 0 11 of 20 55% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
Pat Sabatini 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damon Jackson 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 15
Pat Sabatini 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damon Jackson 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 15
Pat Sabatini 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Damon Jackson vs. Pat Sabatini
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sabatini (-180), Jackson (+155)

Round 1
A pair of surging featherweights are on deck to provide what should be a scintillating clash of grappling styles. With 25 combined submissions between the two, any ground exchanges should be worth watching. Responsible for 15 of those tapouts/chokeouts is “The Leech” Jackson (21-4-1, 1 NC; 4-2-1, 1 NC UFC), while Renzo Gracie Philly rep Sabatini (17-3, 4-0 UFC) posts the other 10. This will be an emotional affair, as Jackson's brother passed away earlier this week. Referee Keith Peterson is ready to step in at a moment’s notice should nonsense materialize out of thin air, and there is no need of a glove touch as these two want to get after it. The first 30 seconds lead to nothing, and out of nowhere, Jackson fires off a front kick to the chin that stuns Sabatini. Sabatini lunges forward, and Jackson turns him about and throws him on his back. Jackson begins to pound on him with his fists, and Sabatini is in a bad way.
Jackson allows Sabatini to give up his back so that he can climb aboard and drop hammers. Sabatini shells up, flattened out on his stomach, and Jackson continues to bombard him with unanswered punches to the side of the head. The blows are fierce and furious, and Jackson does not slow down until Sabatini cries out and Peterson steps in to call a halt to the match.
Jackson climbs off his fallen foe, and he goes over to his corner and collapses to his knees and breaks down in tears. It is an emotional moment for Jackson and his family in the crowd, as he fights to honor his fallen brother.

The Official Result
Damon Jackson def. Pat Sabatini R1 1:09 via TKO (Submission to Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Angelo picks Sabatini, citing his superior wrestling and pure grappling. He notes that Sabatini has technical striking and controls range well, but his main path is through takedowns and top control. Angelo worries about Jackson's pressure but believes Sabatini's grappling will prevail. He is surprised the line has tightened.

"pat is the pick uh he's got the better wrestling the better pure grappling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Big Brady picks Pat Sabatini to win inside the distance, but acknowledges it's a tough fight to call. He notes that both fighters are similar—BJJ black belts with wrestling backgrounds and mediocre striking. Brady gives the edge to Sabatini due to his youth, power on the feet, and training at Renzo Gracie Philly (which has a 15-0 or 16-0 UFC record). He also points out that Damon Jackson has been finished in all four of his losses (three by KO). Brady predicts Sabatini will hurt Jackson on the feet and then submit him.

inside the distance
"i'm gonna take pat sabatini to win i'm gonna say he catches damage jackson i'm gonna say he um hurts him on the feet and and submits him here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Cody thinks Jackson's BJJ black belt and striking advantage will trouble Sabatini, who is one-dimensional. He notes Sabatini struggles when takedowns are stuffed and Jackson can make it ugly on the feet. Cody calls it a potential apple pie (underdog pick).

"i'm sniffing this one as my first potential apple pie i'll just avoid sabatini if anything"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Daniel Levi picks Pat Sabatini, trusting his wrestling and submission game to win rounds. He views Sabatini as a reliable round-winner despite low output, while Jackson can be slowed down and give up positions. He thinks Sabatini is more likely to seal rounds with late takedowns. He does not bet due to the price.

"I trust sabatini more to be the guy who hits that last takedown to get the judge's attention and and just seal it off on the judge's scorecards"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Jacob is a big fan of Sabatini, calling him 'my dude' and noting his 4-0 lock of the week record. He praises Sabatini's control on the ground and his ability to keep opponents against the cage. Jacob worries about Sabatini's striking improvements but believes his grappling will dominate. He jumped on the -200 line and may double down.

"my dude absolutely is past 17. i was actually surprised he was even a minus 200"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 16, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Damon Jackson

Jackson is the best grappler Sabatini has faced; once it hits the mat, it's a 50-50 fight. Sabatini may be the better wrestler but Jackson has high-level Jiu-Jitsu and experience against tough competition. Jackson's ability to reverse and get back to his feet will be key. The line should be closer to a pick'em, so Jackson at plus money is worth a shot. I see Jackson winning a decision.

"Damon Jackson has way better of a chance than that this fight in my opinion should be closer to a pickum that's how I'm gonna go with the underdog here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Paul leans Jackson, noting Sabatini's lack of striking and that Jackson can stuff takedowns. He admits he hasn't been a Jackson guy historically but sees a path. He's not very confident.

"i'll lean towards the underdog in jackson with you um which you know historically will probably mean that uh that sabatini's gonna absolutely roll"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

The MMA Guru picks Pat Sabatini by submission in the third round. He notes Damon Jackson often wins by barely doing enough and has trouble with shorter opponents, as seen against Daniel Argueta. He believes Sabatini's jiu-jitsu and shorter stocky frame will cause problems, and that Sabatini is younger and closer to his prime. He expects Sabatini to get a submission win.

submission in the third round
"i'm gonna go with pat sabatini in this fight by submission in the third round"
WIN vs Dan Argueta
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damon Jackson 0 32 of 53 60% 47 of 71 2 of 4 50% 1 1 10:25
Dan Argueta 0 27 of 59 45% 103 of 141 1 of 3 33% 0 1 2:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damon Jackson 0 0 of 0 --- 1 of 1 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:14
Dan Argueta 0 0 of 0 --- 33 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:42
2 Damon Jackson 0 9 of 10 90% 14 of 17 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:58
Dan Argueta 0 5 of 11 45% 27 of 37 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:46
3 Damon Jackson 0 23 of 43 53% 32 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:13
Dan Argueta 0 22 of 48 45% 43 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damon Jackson 32 of 53 60% 23 of 44 6 of 6 3 of 3 19 of 40 5 of 5 8 of 8
Dan Argueta 27 of 59 45% 24 of 56 3 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 42 10 of 15 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damon Jackson 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dan Argueta 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Damon Jackson 9 of 10 90% 7 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3 2 of 2 5 of 5
Dan Argueta 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 3 of 5 1 of 2
3 Damon Jackson 23 of 43 53% 16 of 36 4 of 4 3 of 3 17 of 37 3 of 3 3 of 3
Dan Argueta 22 of 48 45% 19 of 45 3 of 3 0 of 0 15 of 38 7 of 10 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Angelo describes Damon Jackson as a good grappler but with poor takedown defense (35%). Dan Argueta is a short stocky grappler who immediately goes for takedowns and ground-and-pound. Angelo likes Argueta's game plan of coming forward and shooting, which will force Jackson to defend takedowns instead of initiating his own. He notes the short turnaround but still picks Argueta and plans to bet on him via moneyline and a +3.5 round buy.

moneyline bet on Argueta, plus 3.5 round buy (buying points on judge's scorecard)
"i like argued in this fight because of that game plan i think just coming forward and shooting is is going to get damon jackson now worrying about defending takedowns"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Big Brady picks Damon Jackson to win by third-round submission. He thinks Jackson has advantages everywhere: striking, grappling, wrestling, cardio, and experience. He notes that Argueta is a good wrestler but one-dimensional and is taking this fight on short notice up a weight class. He expects Jackson to break Argueta over time and finish him late. He sees Jackson as one of the safest picks on the card.

Jackson by submission, round 3
"I like damon jackson here quite a bit um and i like him to win by a late finish i think he kind of breaks argetta"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Cody picks Jackson, noting his grappling and submission threat. He thinks Argueta's wrestling will be neutralized and Jackson's size and experience will prevail. He expects Jackson to win, possibly by submission.

"i gotta go jackson for sure"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Daniel Levi picks Damon Jackson, citing his UFC experience, size, and recent dominant performance. He notes that Argueta is moving up in weight and took the fight on short notice after a five-round war. He expects Jackson to win inside the distance, possibly by submission, but refuses to bet the -600 moneyline. He recommends the inside distance prop at -145.

Jackson inside distance -145
"you cannot lay minus 600 on damon jackson but i will pick him to win this fight ufc experience and size will be the will be the keys here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Paul picks Jackson, citing his experience, size, and recent dominant performance. He notes Argueta's short notice, weight class move, and recent five-round war. He thinks Jackson's grappling and striking are superior and expects a finish or dominant decision.

"this should be his fight to win and i think he can win in a multitude of ways"
WIN vs Kamuela Kirk
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 4:42 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · Mar 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damon Jackson 0 32 of 78 41% 51 of 102 2 of 3 66% 1 0 5:37
Kamuela Kirk 0 22 of 54 40% 60 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damon Jackson 0 31 of 77 40% 36 of 82 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:59
Kamuela Kirk 0 22 of 53 41% 23 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Damon Jackson 0 1 of 1 100% 15 of 20 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:38
Kamuela Kirk 0 0 of 1 0% 37 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damon Jackson 32 of 78 41% 22 of 61 9 of 16 1 of 1 27 of 68 2 of 2 3 of 8
Kamuela Kirk 22 of 54 40% 14 of 43 5 of 8 3 of 3 18 of 49 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damon Jackson 31 of 77 40% 21 of 60 9 of 16 1 of 1 26 of 67 2 of 2 3 of 8
Kamuela Kirk 22 of 53 41% 14 of 42 5 of 8 3 of 3 18 of 48 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Damon Jackson 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kamuela Kirk 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Angelo picks Damon Jackson but is worried about his chin. He notes that Jackson is the better offensive wrestler and more technical striker, but Kirk has more power and Jackson can be chinny. He hopes Jackson sticks to a grapple-heavy game plan, similar to how Amira Connelly took Kirk down five times. He calls it a worrisome pick and says he wouldn't bet heavily on it.

"i am going to take a chance i'm going with damon jackson here and i just hope he's diving at legs that whole time"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Big Brady picks Damon Jackson to win by second-round submission. He highlights Jackson's relentless pace and cardio, which he believes will break Kirk as the fight goes on, similar to what Billy Quarantillo did. He notes Jackson's 90% finish rate and that he has never lost a decision, but also has a questionable chin. He thinks Kirk could win inside the distance but expects Jackson to finish him in the second or third round.

second round submission
"i'm gonna take damon jackson to win i'm gonna take him to win by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kamuela Kirk

Cody leans Kirk, citing his striking advantage and takedown defense. He notes Jackson's takedowns are overrated and Kirk's grappling is good enough. He mentions Kirk's short notice but believes he can win.

"i'm leaning towards kamala kirk"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Kamuela Kirk

Daniel Levi leans with Kamuela Kirk, citing that Kirk is the younger, hungrier fighter and that Damon Jackson has vulnerabilities, including being dropped and cut. He thinks Kirk's cardio issues from the Billy Q fight won't be as pronounced because Jackson doesn't push a high pace. Levi expects a close, back-and-forth fight but sees Kirk out-hustling down the stretch.

"i'm going to lean with the younger hungrier guy to to just kind of out hustle down the stretch"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Jackson is a pressure grappler with good cardio and top control. He will look to take Kirk down and grind him out. Kirk is a well-rounded fighter but may struggle with Jackson's relentless wrestling. Jackson is predicted to win via decision, with the decision line at plus 205 noted.

Jackson via decision at plus 205 is the official prediction.
"I'm going to go Damon Jackson. I do think that this will be quite a back and forth fight. ... I see Jackson kind of controlling him for the majority of this fight and winning it via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kamuela Kirk

Paul leans Kirk, citing his striking advantage and takedown defense. He notes Jackson's takedowns are overrated and Kirk's grappling is good enough. He mentions Kirk's short notice but believes he can win.

"i'm leaning towards kamala kirk"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kamuela Kirk

The MMA Guru picks Kamuela Kirk as an underdog over Damon Jackson, going against the majority. He highlights Kirk's ground game off his back, including a triangle choke, and a massive stand-up advantage. He notes that Kirk worked off the bottom against Makwan Amirkhani and didn't let him pass guard. He believes Kirk will out-hustle Jackson in a close decision, with damage favoring Kirk over Jackson's control time.

decision 29-28
"i'm going with kamuela kirk i'm going against the online experts again here i'm going with cameuela kirk i think he's got a really good ground game on bottom"
Alexander Hernandez - Fight History
LOSS vs Rafa García
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · Apr 25, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafa García 0 59 of 169 34% 79 of 194 4 of 7 57% 0 0 1:50
Alexander Hernandez 0 50 of 145 34% 54 of 149 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafa García 0 10 of 40 25% 15 of 45 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:28
Alexander Hernandez 0 8 of 27 29% 8 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Rafa García 0 20 of 66 30% 20 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Alexander Hernandez 0 18 of 38 47% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rafa García 0 29 of 63 46% 44 of 83 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:12
Alexander Hernandez 0 24 of 80 30% 28 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafa García 59 of 169 34% 52 of 161 1 of 2 6 of 6 57 of 165 2 of 3 0 of 1
Alexander Hernandez 50 of 145 34% 40 of 126 9 of 14 1 of 5 50 of 145 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafa García 10 of 40 25% 6 of 36 0 of 0 4 of 4 10 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 1
Alexander Hernandez 8 of 27 29% 5 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 3 8 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rafa García 20 of 66 30% 19 of 65 0 of 0 1 of 1 19 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 18 of 38 47% 14 of 32 3 of 4 1 of 2 18 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Rafa García 29 of 63 46% 27 of 60 1 of 2 1 of 1 28 of 61 1 of 2 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 24 of 80 30% 21 of 74 3 of 6 0 of 0 24 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rafa Garcia vs. Alexander Hernandez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-145); Garcia (+120)

Round 1
Going forward, the last six athletes tonight hoist UFC records above .500. Even with a defeat, any one of the losing parties will not fall to that threshold either. Garcia (18-4, 6-4 UFC) has seen some serious success as of late, winning four of five including a knockout of Jared Gordon in his last time out. Hernandez (18-8, 10-7 UFC) finally gets to fight again after a UFC 324 match against Michael Johnson was nixed due to extreme betting irregularities. Referee Kerry Hatley will stand vigilant while the lightweights engage in sanctioned fisticuffs, with the two athletes not bothering to bump fists first.
They engage in some early jabbery and pokery, with Garcia looking to follow his ones with right hands. He scores one to drive Hernandez back a few steps, reddening the Texan’s nose immediately. Garcia nails the front leg with a kick so hard that Hernandez has to recoil it behind his other leg, and he circles on the outer edge looking for a way in. Garcia plans a kick on the front leg again while Hernandez is about to engage, shutting that attack down. Hernandez steps in with a knee to the body, getting it off just before Garcia can hit him with his overhand right. Garcia bounces and works his way forward, staying away from Hernandez’ kicks as he jabs straight ahead. Garcia wings a short left hook that brushes the chin, putting “The Great Ape” on notice.
Hernandez shadowboxes on the outside edge, unable to get close, while Garcia can seemingly close the distance at will. Garcia plans a kick on the inside calf, and Hernandez gives him back a loud body kick to think about. Garcia plods forward using a tight, high guard, keeping Hernandez to largely single strikes. Garcia stings his opponent and sees an opening to drop down to his knees to get hold a double, and he tosses Hernandez down for a second. Hernandez climbs back up, and Garcia elevates him with a high-crotch lift and slams him down with gravitas. Hernandez appears no worse for wear as both men gets back to their feet without issue, but it is Garcia who continues to press the action. Hernandez comes up short on his winging punches, but a left hand brushes open a cut on Garcia’s left eye. Hernandez is shoved to his knees, and he eats a few shots before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 2
Picking up right where he left off, Garcia is the pressure fighter. He works his way in to drive a left hand down the middle, drawing a thin trickle of blood from his foe’s left nostril. Hernandez keeps his wits about him as Garcia plods towards him, but the volume from Garcia has diminished to a degree. Garcia walks his man down to put three fists on the face, and he chases but does not cut off “The Great Ape” as he stays right in front of him. Hernandez has to desperately scramble from side to side to get away, and the accuracy of Garcia is something to behold as Hernandez appears shocked when he gets caught repeatedly.
Hernandez tries to back Garcia off with a head kick, but Garcia blocks it and flashes a devilish grin. Garcia counters a front kick with a right hand down the pipe, snapping the head back and forcing Hernandez to circle rapidly to his right away from the power. The fists of Garcia have quickly transformed Hernandez’ visage into a bloody mess, while Garcia’s light wound on his eyebrow opens up again during a fierce but brief exchange. Garcia wades forward, stops, winds up and throws, and he tags Hernandez flush. He changes levels to break things up, and Hernandez keeps to his feet and backs off. Garcia jabs him up and starts talking to him as the round ends, with both men getting into the other’s face. Hatley has to separate them and usher them back to their respective corners.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 3
Garcia does not stay seated in his corner long enough to get his eye cut sealed, as he is amped up and ready to throw hands. He does exactly that when the third round kicks off, stepping right into the pocket to throw hammers. Hernandez has to inevitably retreat due to the pressure, so Garcia does not let him off the hook. Garcia throws everything and the kitchen sink, and Hernandez’ chin is granite but as it starts to fade, he starts to engage less and circle more. With Hernandez backpedaling, Garcia rushes after him and pursues a takedown.
Hernandez stands him up with his back to the fence, keeping his balance as blood leaks from his nose. Garcia elevates and dumps Hernandez down, and when Hernandez stands, Garcia belts him with a sharp combination. Hernandez throws back no matter the position, but Garcia is unafraid of the return offerings. Hernandez starts to pick things up, almost certainly down on the scorecards, and he manages to back Garcia up after landing cleanly a few times. The fighters duke it out one after the other, with big damage developing around Hernandez’ left eye. No one cares about damage or blood or anything, engaging in an absolutely rip-roaring slugfest for the remainder of the round. Damage was inflicted aplenty in their 15-minute engagement, and the fighters squash any inkling of a beef right after the final horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Garcia)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Garcia)

The Official Result
Rafa Garcia def. Alexander Hernandez via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez as the better fighter, citing his explosiveness, speed, cardio, and power. He notes that Hernandez is on a four-fight win streak with back-to-back knockouts. He acknowledges that Rafa García is the better straight wrestler, but believes Hernandez scrambles well and has good cardio. He expresses concern that Hernandez needs to pull the trigger and not be outworked.

"Alexander Hernandez is the better fighter, so he's the pick. I just need him to actually pull the trigger."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Rafa García

Big Brady picks Rafa García over Alexander Hernandez. He sees advantages for García in boxing volume, wrestling, durability, and cardio. He expects a close fight but believes García's pace and cardio will be key, predicting a split decision win.

García wins by decision
"I'm going to take Garcia Garcia by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Connor picks Hernandez, citing his superior athleticism, wrestling, and speed. He notes that Garcia's game tends to stall against better athletes who can hit harder, and Hernandez fits that mold. He also points out that Hernandez's recent wins, though against mediocre competition, have built confidence. He believes Hernandez will use his movement and perimeter striking to avoid Garcia's pressure and win rounds.

"I'm inclined to take Hernandez."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2026 (fight day)
Rafa García

The host thinks Garcia is the better fighter but had a poor last performance. He expects a stand-up fight where Garcia can pressure Hernandez and test his gas tank. He notes Hernandez slows down and Garcia is durable, having been finished only once. He will bet Garcia +3.5 because Garcia is very likely to win the third round, and the fight likely goes to decision.

Garcia +3.5 rounds; fight likely goes to decision; great for live betting
"I will be betting Rafa Garcia plus 3.5 just because... I think it's very very very very very likely Garcia will win the third round."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

James picks Alexander Hernandez, citing his athleticism and power advantage. He expects Hernandez to win the first two rounds and possibly fade in the third, but still outwork Garcia. He notes Garcia's toughness but believes Hernandez's level is higher.

"I like Alexander Hernandez in this one. I think he's going to get it done."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Rafa García

Garcia is on a two-fight winning streak with good durability and volume striking. Hernandez has a four-fight winning streak but relies on power and wrestling, and he has a questionable gas tank. Garcia should be able to stuff takedowns, outwork Hernandez on the feet, and pull away in the later rounds to win a decision.

"I think we'll see Garcia shuck off the takedowns of Hernandez or at least showcase enough resistance there that Hernandez can't grind out rounds. And then on the feet, I think Garcia has good enough uh durability that he should …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Apr 23, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Rafa García

Zane picks Garcia as an aspirational pick, believing Garcia's durability and improved striking (as seen against Jared Gordon) could allow him to pressure Hernandez and exploit his psychological fragility. He acknowledges Hernandez's athleticism and wrestling, but thinks Garcia can win a close fight if he applies relentless pressure. He admits it's a stylistic risk but is willing to be wrong.

"I'm going to take Rafa Garcia to do the close run thing."
CANCEL vs Michael Johnson
UFC 324 · Jan 24, 2026
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, citing his speed, power, and recent resurgence with back-to-back knockouts. He acknowledges Michael Johnson's impressive resume and takedown defense but worries about Johnson's age and chin. He notes Hernandez's tendency to swell and bleed easily as a concern, especially in Vegas where damage matters.

I'm probably gonna throw a money line on him here. I'm just hoping the minus 152 tightens a bit.
"I think Alexander Hernandez is going to be a little too fast, a little too clean. I like the power on the Hernandez side."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Big Brady believes Hernandez is finally putting it together, on a four-fight win streak, and filling out at lightweight. He thinks Michael Johnson is too old at 39 and benefited from recency bias after an upset win over Zellhuber. Brady expects Hernandez to win by decision, as Johnson won't push a pace that gasses Hernandez.

Hernandez by decision
"I gotta go Hernandez here. You know, it's actually kind of funny. Both these guys seem to whenever you least expect to just find a way to lose."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Cody also picks Hernandez but is hesitant due to Hernandez's mental fragility. He notes Hernandez's confidence-based fighting style and recent wins, but worries about his tendency to underperform. Cody believes Hernandez's power and wrestling give him the edge, but he is not fully confident.

"I'm jumping back on team Hernandez. So, if he loses, it's entirely my fault. The universe does not want me to win money on this guy."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Connor is torn but leans Hernandez, believing Johnson's win streak is smoke and mirrors. He notes that Hernandez has better wins and is younger, but acknowledges Johnson's speed and durability. Connor thinks Hernandez needs to pressure and wrestle to win, and that Johnson's takedown defense can be frustrated. He ultimately picks Hernandez but with low confidence.

"I'm gonna pick i'm gonna pick hernandez still just because I really think michael johnson's late career win streak is smoke and mirrors."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2026 (16 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Daniel Vreeland picks Alexander Hernandez based on momentum and age advantage. He notes that Hernandez is on a four-fight win streak, while Johnson is 39 and speed is the first thing to go. However, Vreeland is not fully confident because Hernandez's wins are against lower-level competition and Johnson can beat anyone on a given night.

"I'm going to go with Alexander Hernandez based off the momentum."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jan 14, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

James picks Hernandez after tape study, citing his wrestling upside, better footwork, and durability. He notes Johnson is older and that Hernandez is on a better trajectory. However, he is not fully confident and will analyze further for betting.

"I got Alexander Hernandez in this one. I feel like he's going to get it done."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 20, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The host picks Hernandez by knockout but with low confidence, acknowledging that Johnson could outstrike him over three rounds. He notes Hernandez's power is the difference-maker, but he relies on landing a big shot. He says Johnson is live as an underdog and won't fault anyone taking the plus money.

Hernandez by knockout
"I'm going to go Hernandez here in Hernandez by knockout. Very low confidence level though."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Paul leans toward Alexander Hernandez, citing his youth and recent winning streak. He notes Hernandez's power and wrestling threat, but is wary of his inconsistency. Paul believes Hernandez can catch Johnson, who is older and has been knocked out before. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

Under 2.5 rounds
"I don't mind an under two and a half at like plus 125 in this fight. I think both guys have paths to getting a finish."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, calling it a 'fraud check' for Alexander Hernandez. He believes Johnson's hand speed will be too much, and that Hernandez will fail to adjust, leading to a KO. He predicts a round two KO.

KO in round two
"I'm going to go with Michael Johnson. If Hernandez wins, he's truly improved beyond belief."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

Zane picks Johnson, arguing that Johnson has never lost confidence or changed his style, and is still fast and durable. He notes that Hernandez has gone through crises and may not pressure effectively. Zane believes Johnson's speed and shot selection will give Hernandez problems, and that Hernandez's recent wins are less impressive. However, he acknowledges Hernandez could wrestle and win.

"I really think michael johnson could win this and yeah, I think i'm gonna pick him."
KO R2 3:46 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Hernandez 1 30 of 75 40% 30 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 23 of 98 23% 23 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Hernandez 0 12 of 36 33% 12 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 11 of 53 20% 11 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Hernandez 1 18 of 39 46% 18 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 12 of 45 26% 12 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Hernandez 30 of 75 40% 22 of 63 4 of 6 4 of 6 20 of 61 0 of 0 10 of 14
Carlos Diego Ferreira 23 of 98 23% 8 of 56 11 of 35 4 of 7 23 of 96 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Hernandez 12 of 36 33% 7 of 28 2 of 4 3 of 4 12 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Diego Ferreira 11 of 53 20% 3 of 29 6 of 19 2 of 5 11 of 51 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Alexander Hernandez 18 of 39 46% 15 of 35 2 of 2 1 of 2 8 of 25 0 of 0 10 of 14
Carlos Diego Ferreira 12 of 45 26% 5 of 27 5 of 16 2 of 2 12 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Diego Ferreira vs. Alexander Hernandez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-140); Ferreira (+115)

Round 1
Jeff Rexroad is the referee. Ferreira takes the center of the cage in the early going. Hernandez is attacking with leg kicks. A solid jab lands for Hernandez. Ferreira catches a kick to the body and attempts to counter. Ferreira launches a big right hand and Hernandez circles away. A right hand makes Ferreira stumble briefly. Hernandez jabs and Ferreira lands a body kick. Another jab for Hernandez. Ferreira lands a body kick. Lots of movement for Hernandez which is making it difficult for Ferreria to find his range. A front kick to the body lands for Ferreira. They trade and Ferreira ends the exchange with a knee. A straight lands for Hernandez. Ferreira continues to walk Hernandez down. Ferreira lands a front kick to the body. A close opening round.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira

Round 2
Hernandez kicks the body. Ferreira catches and attempts to counter. He gets poked in the eye in the process and time is called. Ferreira doesn’t need much time to recover. A counter left lands clean for Ferreira in an exchnage. Ferreira lands a body kick as Hernandez moves forward. Ferreira just misses on a head kick. A solid right gets through for Hernandez. Ferreira blocks a hard body kick. Hernandez continues his movement based approach, but he’s not landing much. Another straight shot lands for Hernandez. A left hook and a body kick connect for Ferreira. Ferreirra presses forward and
Hernandez drops him with a perfectly-timed counter right hand to the temple. Smelling blood, Hernandez pounces and unleashes a hailstorm of violent ground-and-pound. Rexroad gives Ferreira plenty of leeway — perhaps too much — but after about eight unanswered punches, the fight is mercifully called.
That’s a resounding victory for the San Antonio native, who has won four consecutive Octagon appearances. Ferreira ends the fight with a nasty hematoma on the side of his head.

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Diego Ferreira via TKO (Punches) R2 3:46
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, noting he is hitting his stride lately, explosive, well-rounded, and a good athlete. He says this feels like a great fight for Hernandez, fighting an older guy at home (San Antonio). His only concern is that Hernandez cuts easily, which could affect judging. He says if the odds are reasonable, he will bet on him.

If they're reasonable in any fashion, I will be betting on him.
"Alex is going to be the pick. My only concern is that he cuts so damn easily."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Big Brady leans toward Ferreira because Hernandez fades late in fights. He notes Hernandez is explosive early but has poor cardio and was put together on short notice. Ferreira is durable and has finished fights late. He predicts Ferreira wins by third-round knockout after weathering an early storm.

Third round knockout
"I'm going to say Ferrer wins this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Connor picks Ferreira, emphasizing that Hernandez's inability to handle pressure will be exploited. He notes that Ferreira is a dangerous grappler and powerful striker, and Hernandez's wrestling won't be an easy out. Connor acknowledges Ferreira's age but says if not for age, he would pick Ferreira without question.

"I will agree I'm flighty on it because of age, but if it weren't for age, I would be picking Ferreira. No question."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Hernandez is making a quick turnaround, but the host believes he is up against it. He expects Ferreira to stave off Hernandez's early power and explosivity, then wear him down with pace, pressure, and grappling, winning on the scorecards.

"I think we'll see Fera do a good job in terms of staving off the early threat that Hernandez presents with this power and explosivity and then really start wearing the veteran down with his pace, pressure, and grappling. Look …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Diego Ferreira as an underdog, believing he will 'fraud check' Alexander Hernandez. He highlights Ferreira's win over Michael Johnson and competitive fights with Gamrot and Rebecki. He argues Hernandez struggles against veteran fighters and that Ferreira is a step above Hernandez's previous opponents. He predicts a second or third round TKO.

Round 2 or 3 TKO
"Carlos Diego Feer is going to beat Alexander Hernandez. ... I'm going to go with Carlos Diego Vega getting this one done. Second or third round TKO finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Zane picks Ferreira, citing his experience, aggressive inclination, and power. He notes that Hernandez is allergic to pressure and struggles when backed up, while Ferreira will pressure him. Zane acknowledges Ferreira's age (40) but believes his style and dangerous grappling will neutralize Hernandez's wrestling and force him into uncomfortable exchanges.

"I kind of have to pick Diego Ferreira. Because that Damon Jackson fight was just last year."
WIN vs Chase Hooper
KO R1 4:58 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chase Hooper 0 20 of 82 24% 20 of 82 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Alexander Hernandez 1 17 of 38 44% 18 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chase Hooper 0 20 of 82 24% 20 of 82 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Alexander Hernandez 1 17 of 38 44% 18 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chase Hooper 20 of 82 24% 7 of 62 7 of 12 6 of 8 20 of 81 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 17 of 38 44% 14 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 33 0 of 0 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chase Hooper 20 of 82 24% 7 of 62 7 of 12 6 of 8 20 of 81 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 17 of 38 44% 14 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 33 0 of 0 4 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Hernandez vs. Chase Hooper
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hooper (-345), Hernandez (+275)

Round 1
Getting away from the prelims to the four-bout chunk on the ESPN network, we start with a lightweight clash that pits a young-up-and-comer against someone who used to hold that status before aging out of it. Hooper (16-3-1, 8-3 UFC) is full of things and vinegar at the age of 25 on a five-fight win streak—one shy of a career long. His opponent Hernandez (16-8, 8-7 UFC) has won lately to edge himself above the .500 UFC record line, although a defeat tonight would even him out again. The two men have referee Jason Herzog to thank for how the officiating will play out in the next 15 minutes or fewer, and they opt to bump fists.
Hooper starts off with long front kicks from either limb to the body. The kicks set up one up high, and he chains a spinning back fist into it. Hernandez steps in to kick the body, and Hooper nearly reaches him on the way out with his far longer limbs. Hernandez tries to close the distance again, and Hooper uses his front kick to frustrate his foe. Hernandez manages to get in to score a pair of punches, only to have to back off and wait for Hooper to throw a naked kick to counter with an overhand left. Hernandez sticks out a straight right hand, and Hooper whizzes past him with a combination.
Hernandez sits down on two counterpunches when Hooper kicks at the ribs, and he hurls a big left hand as Hooper shoots in for a single-leg entry. Hernandez breaks out of it and circles away, blocking a chasing strike or two including a spinning back fist. Hooper plants two punches on the jaw, and Hernandez reaches him at the end of a left. Hooper’s front kick is mixed in, and he shoots in low for a takedown and lands on his own face. Hernandez scoots away and lets Hooper back up, and he measures the longer fighter with looping punches out of range. Hernandez connects on a few punches and evades a long right hand, while parrying two subsequent strikes. “The Great Ape” hits with a left, and Hooper partially rolls with it and replies with doubled left hooks.
Hernandez keeps moving from side to side, and he lances a fierce right hand down the middle to separate Hooper from his senses. Hooper collapses to his knees and tries for a desperate takedown to save himself, and Hernandez pounds on him from both sides of the head with seconds to go in the round. As Hooper takes damage, Herzog waves the fight off
, as he does not feel that Hooper should have a few more seconds to ride out the round and recover. Hooper is crestfallen but nods in understanding when informed exactly what happened, while the victorious Hernandez raises his arms and parades around the cage to celebrate.

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Chase Hooper R1 4:58 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Angelo notes Hooper has filled out physically, improved his takedowns, and is undefeated at 155. He thinks Hernandez is inconsistent and undersized, and that Hooper's height and BJJ advantage could be key. However, he acknowledges Hernandez's takedown defense and toughness, making this a close fight. He slightly leans Hooper but is not confident.

Considering betting Hernandez to win a round (+3.5) at plus money
"I'm going to slight lean Chase. Chase is going to be the pick, but like by this much."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Big Brady picks Chase Hooper to win by second-round TKO. He notes Hernandez struggles with high pace and has been broken in many fights. Hooper is massive, pushes a pace, and will drain Hernandez's gas tank. He thinks Hooper will chain takedowns and submission attempts, finishing Hernandez in the second or third round. He acknowledges Hernandez could hurt Hooper early, but if Hooper gets rolling, it's a bad matchup for Hernandez.

Hooper by TKO, round 2
"I think Chase Suber is going to get it done. So, give me Chase to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by second round TKO."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chase Hooper

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Hooper. He notes that Hernandez is a solid wrestler but crumbles under pressure, and that Hooper's aggressive style and confidence will cause Hernandez to fold. He references the Damon Jackson fight as a blueprint for how to beat Hernandez with pressure. He also notes that Hooper's grappling is creative and can create submissions from any position.

"I think I agree. There's also the fact that Chase Hooper is the kind of grappler who doesn't even necessarily need to complete a takedown. To teleport to his opponent's back or drop for a leg lock or whatever creates …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chase Hooper

The host notes Hooper's recent improvements and chaotic striking approach. He expects Hooper to wear down Hernandez and eventually find a submission, likely in the second or third round.

submission in the second or third round
"Given his recent improvements and his chaotic striking approach, I think he can wear down Hernandez and eventually find a submission probably in the second or third round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The Guru leans towards Alexander Hernandez, though he expresses some hesitation. He believes Hernandez's explosiveness and body shots will be effective against Chase Hooper. The Guru notes that Hooper's grappling is improved but he lacks damaging ground and pound and often wins by submission threat rather than actual submissions. He worries about Hernandez's close fight with Austin Hubbard but thinks Hernandez will have more moments in the scrambles and on the feet.

"I'm going to lean towards Alexander Hernandez here for some reason. I don't know why I'm feeling it, but I think Alexander Hernandez is going to show up and have a, you know, I beat Benil Darush, by the way, …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chase Hooper

Zane picks Hooper, citing Hernandez's tendency to collapse under pressure. He compares Hernandez's fight with Damon Jackson, where Jackson's pressure led to Hernandez crumbling. He notes that Hooper is pathologically aggressive and will put pressure on Hernandez, and that Hooper's grappling is dynamic enough to create submissions even without completing takedowns. He acknowledges the risk of Hooper getting knocked out but believes Hernandez lacks the dog mentality to capitalize.

Hernandez opened +200, now +260; Hooper opened -145, now -310. Zane notes the line is getting wide on Hooper.
"I got, I got to pick Hooper. Yeah. I think you have swayed me. I mean, look, it is a fight where Hooper could get fucking knocked out. Oh yeah. Yeah, absolutely. Like he is. I mean, Hernandez is a …"
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Hernandez 0 59 of 149 39% 87 of 186 4 of 5 80% 0 0 6:39
Kurt Holobaugh 0 71 of 171 41% 106 of 215 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Hernandez 0 22 of 68 32% 24 of 70 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:09
Kurt Holobaugh 0 26 of 75 34% 26 of 75 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:14
2 Alexander Hernandez 0 30 of 62 48% 37 of 75 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:01
Kurt Holobaugh 0 38 of 78 48% 48 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
3 Alexander Hernandez 0 7 of 19 36% 26 of 41 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:29
Kurt Holobaugh 0 7 of 18 38% 32 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Hernandez 59 of 149 39% 36 of 117 10 of 15 13 of 17 45 of 129 2 of 3 12 of 17
Kurt Holobaugh 71 of 171 41% 39 of 122 21 of 35 11 of 14 63 of 160 8 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Hernandez 22 of 68 32% 12 of 51 3 of 8 7 of 9 22 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kurt Holobaugh 26 of 75 34% 11 of 49 8 of 16 7 of 10 26 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexander Hernandez 30 of 62 48% 17 of 47 7 of 7 6 of 8 21 of 51 2 of 3 7 of 8
Kurt Holobaugh 38 of 78 48% 23 of 58 11 of 16 4 of 4 31 of 68 7 of 10 0 of 0
3 Alexander Hernandez 7 of 19 36% 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 5 of 9
Kurt Holobaugh 7 of 18 38% 5 of 15 2 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt Holobaugh
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-192), Holobaugh (+160)

Round 1
Must-win fights are the name of the game at this UFC Vegas 104 card, as formerly highly touted prospect Hernandez (15-8, 7-7 UFC) has fallen on hard times as of late, winner of just two of his last six. Meanwhile, Holobaugh (21-8, 1 NC; 2-5 UFC) is on his third run in the Octagon, and this stint is more successful than others in the past as he has won a few times. Referee Kerry Hatley will take charge of the lightweights in this next match, and they start things off by bumping fists. Both men let their legs fly, smacking one another with heavy low kicks to start off. Holobaugh jabs to the body and follows with a high kick that bangs into Hernandez’ chest, and the Texan parries another advance from Holobaugh. Hernandez stands his man up with a left hand, and he slides away from any counter. Kicks on the inside and outside of Holobaugh’s leg land, and he surges into action, swarming forward with punches that catch Hernandez on the chin. They bang heads briefly, and before Hatley can say something, Hernandez stops and asks if Holobaugh is alright. They get right back to it, chasing one another around with powerful punch combinations. Holobaugh sneaks in a body kick, and Hernandez responds in kind. This happens again, just with Hernandez striking first. The lightweights take turns engaging, and they continue mirroring one another with their exchanges. One lands, the other gives him something back to think about, and the series carries on. Hernandez comes out swinging with big fists, and Holobaugh slips them and tries to do the same. When Hernandez has his gloves bang into Holobaugh’s, Holobaugh retaliates with a clubbing right hand behind the ear and floors Hernandez with another right hand. Hernandez springs right back up and sits down on a left hand that momentarily stuns his opponent. Hernandez uses his jab to set up strikes, pumping it and putting at least one or two behind it. Holobaugh is just as active, racing at Hernandez and getting met with a takedown attempt. Holobaugh considers grabbing the cage, but he instead sets up a guillotine choke and hits the ground on his back. He continues squeezing the submission, and Hernandez signals a thumbs-up before the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh

Round 2
Holobaugh has a fire lit under his belly between rounds, and he channels that by marching Hernandez down and throwing everything he can at him. Punches, knees, elbows and even a spinning wheel kick come from “The Hurt,” who is putting the hurt on Hernandez in the early going. Hernandez is tough as a two-dollar steak, and he fires back at his constantly advancing foe. Hernandez chops at the lead leg a few times, and Holobaugh has to change stances because of it. This does not slow Holobaugh, who instead plods forward throwing hands. Hernandez catches him with a right hand, and Holobaugh drills him with his own overhand right that staggers the Texan. Hernandez uses the wall behind him to gather his bearings, and he pushes off of it and re-engages. He only lands a few strikes before Holobaugh is back to imposing his volume and will on his quickly bloodied opponent. Holobaugh checks a kick and meets Hernandez with a right hand, and Hernandez sits in the pocket trying to trade back. When Holobaugh overswings with a right hook, Hernandez takes the wind out of his sails by nailing a perfect double-leg takedown. Hernandez keeps Holobaugh on his back, working with ground strikes while Holobaugh rolls for an armbar. Hernandez is having none of it, staying as heavy as he can while drumming him with several left hands. Holobaugh sells out for the armbar, and he does not have the right grip so Hernandez is in no danger. “The Great Ape” hammers Holobaugh with several big punches, mixing between smothering top control and fierce offense. The round ends with Hernandez hacking at his foe with elbows.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh

Round 3
There is one last clap of hands for the lightweights to engage, and Hernandez immediately shoots in for a double and plants Holobaugh on his back. Hernandez moves to side control, and Holobaugh scrambles and sits up. Hernandez drags him down from behind, and he reasserts himself in half guard while isolating an arm-triangle choke. When Holobaugh scrambles, Hernandez is able to jump on top of him and claim full mount for a second before getting pulled back to half guard again. Holobaugh’s scrambles nearly result in him getting caught in an arm-triangle, and Hernandez is a 155-pound lead weight on his chest. Hernandez has his leg wrapped around Holobaugh’s, and when he moves it, Holobaugh explodes back to his feet. It is now punching time, as Holobaugh wants to slug his foe in the chops. Hernandez looks for the takedown that does not come, and Holobaugh marches him down loaded for bear. Hernandez ducks a punch and hits a crucial double, and he lands in half guard and quickly wraps up a head-and-arm choke. Holobaugh is not overly concerned, with Hernandez not able to get leverage on the other side to lock it down. Holobaugh grabs hold of a kimura—could we see a third in consecutive fights?—but it is not there. Hernandez frees his limb and opens up with torrid offense from up top, laying into “The Hurt” with everything he has left. The two go the distance, and the second round may be the one to decide the victor.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Holobaugh)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Holobaugh)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Holobaugh)

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Kurt Holobaugh via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

Angelo picks Kurt Holobaugh over Alexander Hernandez. He criticizes Hernandez's inconsistency and tendency to wear damage, while Holobaugh's pressure and striking should be effective. Angelo notes that judges favor visible damage, which Holobaugh can inflict. He calls it a 'recipe for success' for Holobaugh.

"I'm actually going to pick Kurt here. I think the pressure the Striking all of that combined with the fact that Alex wears damage on his face and the only thing Vegas judges give a [__] about is tiny little …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

Big Brady picks Kurt Holobaugh as an underdog, citing Alexander Hernandez's inconsistency, poor cardio, and tendency to crumble under adversity. He notes that Hernandez has lost to fighters like Bill Algeo, Thiago Moises, and Damon Jackson when pressured. Brady believes Holobaugh is tough, has solid cardio, and good grappling, and can have success on the feet as well. He predicts a close decision win for Holobaugh, possibly winning the second and third rounds.

Holobaugh by decision
"I'll take the dog here and Hollow ball to get it done... plus 155 I'll take Hollow ball here to win."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody picks Angela Hill as a dog, citing her high volume and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes that Hill's fights are often close and she tends to fight to the level of her competition. He believes she can exploit Yasmin Lucindo's reliance on takedowns and lack of striking volume.

"Angela Hill dog money is almost kind of like a system play because she kind of fights the level of her competition every single fight. They're very very close. They kind of end up being coin flippy."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

Connor picks Holobaugh because he enjoys rooting for him more, but acknowledges it's a lean. He notes that Holobaugh's relentless pressure and willingness to brawl could cause Hernandez to collapse mentally, as seen in his losses to Damon Jackson, Bill Algeo, and Billy Quarantillo. However, he admits Holobaugh makes terrible decisions and is less athletic.

"I think I'm gonna pick Hollabaugh just because I enjoy rooting for him more."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

The host believes Holobaugh will dictate the pace, which is bad for Hernandez. He expects Holobaugh to touch up Hernandez over 15 minutes and potentially find a finish after a bad takedown attempt from Hernandez in deep water, either by knockout or club and sub.

finish by knockout or club and sub
"I believe halah should be able to dictate the pace of this matchup which usually is not a good sign for Hernandez that will lead halot to touching up Hernandez over the course of 15 minutes and potentially even finding …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Paul also picks Angela Hill, emphasizing her experience against Brazilian opponents and her ability to mix takedowns. He notes that Lucindo struggled against Amanda Lemos when taken down and reversed. He believes Hill can bank early rounds with volume and takedowns, then survive the third.

"I'm actually on Angela Hill as well. I mean, uh you can tell that she's slowing down. Her last fight, the speed's there in the first round. The second round, you're starting to see her fade a lot more. body …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Hernandez, liking him at lightweight where he performs better. He notes Hernandez trains at Factory X Muay Thai now and has a win over Jim Miller. He thinks Hernandez's shot selection and leg kicks will be effective against Kurt Holobaugh, who is 38 years old. He also mentions Hernandez can use offensive takedowns while fresh. He considers Holobaugh's win over Trey Ogden but believes Hernandez is a step above.

"I'm going to go with Alexander Hernandez I like him at lightweight does anyone else like Alexander Hernandez at lightweight"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Zane picks Hernandez for athletic reasons, noting that Hernandez is a rock-solid wrestler and hits harder than Holobaugh's recent opponents. He acknowledges that Holobaugh's brawling pressure could cause Hernandez to collapse mentally, but believes Hernandez's physical advantages and the fact that Holobaugh makes terrible decisions give him the edge.

Odds: Hernandez opened -218, now -197; Holobaugh opened +178, now +181. Zane calls it a sensible line.
"I'm gonna stick with Hernandez."
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Hernandez 0 63 of 191 32% 65 of 193 0 of 12 0% 0 0 0:05
Austin Hubbard 0 79 of 204 38% 91 of 217 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Hernandez 0 10 of 44 22% 11 of 45 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Austin Hubbard 0 23 of 60 38% 23 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Hernandez 0 22 of 66 33% 22 of 66 0 of 7 0% 0 0 0:05
Austin Hubbard 0 26 of 71 36% 32 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
3 Alexander Hernandez 0 31 of 81 38% 32 of 82 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Austin Hubbard 0 30 of 73 41% 36 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Hernandez 63 of 191 32% 32 of 142 25 of 42 6 of 7 60 of 177 3 of 14 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 79 of 204 38% 41 of 144 22 of 38 16 of 22 78 of 203 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Hernandez 10 of 44 22% 2 of 27 7 of 15 1 of 2 10 of 42 0 of 2 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 23 of 60 38% 10 of 43 4 of 7 9 of 10 23 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexander Hernandez 22 of 66 33% 12 of 53 7 of 10 3 of 3 19 of 58 3 of 8 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 26 of 71 36% 13 of 48 8 of 16 5 of 7 26 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexander Hernandez 31 of 81 38% 18 of 62 11 of 17 2 of 2 31 of 77 0 of 4 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 30 of 73 41% 18 of 53 10 of 15 2 of 5 29 of 72 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Hernandez vs. Austin Hubbard
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-215), Hubbard (+170)

Round 1
When this lightweight affair concludes, one of these two fighters will lift their UFC records to .500 while the other will drift further in the wrong direction. Hoping this second stint courtesy of a finals appearance in TUF 31 will go swimmingly, Hubbard (16-7, 4-5 UFC) comes to blows with Texas native Hernandez (14-8, 6-7 UFC). There is no plan of a glove touch to the precede the action while referee Tyler Tomlinson watches on. Don’t worry, fight fans, ref Dave Seljestad is done for the night. He can’t hurt you anymore. Hubbard presses forward right out of the gate, pursuing Hernandez all across the cage after him. The two trade leg kicks until Hernandez lashes out with a right hand down the pipe. Hernandez tosses out a high kick that is blocked, and a right hand is not. Hubbard ducks down and directly into a right hand, and Hernandez keeps it going with a solid uppercut. Hubbard remains in front of Hernandez, but Hernandez is quicker and beats him to the punch. Hubbard jabs his foe in the chest with a kick, and Hernandez responds with a one-two. Hubbard slips back and tags “The Great Ape” with a left hook, backing Hernandez off. Hubbard chases, going for a single and then attacking up high with a kick. Even getting countered often, Hubbard remains right in front of the Texan, and he dings him with a step-in knee as Hernandez goes after a single. The knee busts Hernandez’ nose open, and a thin trickle of blood leak out of it. Hernandez pays it no mind and connects with a one-two, only for Hubbard to come back firing with a body kick. Hubbard misses a front kick by a whisker, and Hernandez’ body shot finds its home. Hubbard whiffs on a right hook and his front kick pushes off the chest, but the active Hernandez tags him with a few kicks and a left hand. Hubbard skims a right hand over the top, and Hernandez is there with two hooks that buckle Hubbard’s knees but do not send him down. “Thud” gathers his thoughts and has a thudding kick bounce off the guard. Hernandez rushes forward with a left hand and a one-two, and Hubbard barely bats an eye and instead attempts an axe kick. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 2
Striking exchanges from both men open up the round, with both fighters landing at the end of a few successful blows. Hubbard punches his way into a takedown attempt, and Hernandez rebuffs him with ease and attacks the body. They let go with hooks at the same time, and Hernandez manages to get the better of it. Hubbard continues to maintain heavy pressure, and Hernandez beats him to the punch and drops him to his hands with a straight right hand down the pipe. Hernandez clips Hubbard with a pair of punches, and Hubbard sits down on a low kick that turns “The Great Ape” around. Hubbard drops for a single, and Hernandez manages to fight it off and hop around the cage to stay upright. Hubbard strings together a few punches into a body kick, and Hernandez swats him back with a kick to the thigh. Hernandez sneaks a high kick up, and a left hand gives Hubbard some pause, but Hubbard’s durability holds up. Going after a single, Hubbard turns the corner and takes Hernandez down to his seat from behind but cannot keep him there. Hernandez bounces back up and flashes out a few jabs. Hubbard drills him with a shovel uppercut, and he goes after a takedown, misses and blasts a leaning Hernandez in the face with a crisp knee. Hernandez appears no worse for wear from the destructive blow, and he reaches Hubbard with a left hook. Hubbard slides back and lifts up a knee, and the foot bounces into Hernandez’ cup as Hernandez does not say a word. They do not take a break, instead taking turns to throw at one another. Hernandez punches his way into a double-leg takedown, and Hubbard scoots his way to the fencing to not get taken off his feet. Hubbard breaks free and further bloodies Hernandez’ nose with a left hand. Body shots are traded from the fighters, and they crack one another with right hooks to follow. Hubbard drives forward with a body kick, and Hernandez stands firm and blasts him with a left hand at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 3
Fists fly almost immediately to start the last round, and Hernandez charges at Hubbard throwing hands and ending a string of strikes with a knee. Hubbard’s own nose is marked up from oncoming fire, but he is right in there readying himself for a firefight. When a Hubbard takedown is rebuffed once more, he is shoved back and does not eat a strike on the way out this time. Hernandez chains a body shot into two lunging punches, throwing himself off-balance while missing with the strikes. Hubbard catches him with a front kick, two clean punches and a spinning back kick, and Hernandez has to shake it off before responding. When Hernandez darts in, Hubbard has a right hand ready to pop him. Hubbard punches a few times, and Hernandez ducks and eats a knee flush. Hubbard stabs a front kick to the body, fails on a takedown and wings a right hand over the top. Hubbard’s front kick finds its home again, and they jab at the same time. Hernandez dodges a front kick to put a left hand in Hubbard’s face, and Hubbard sells out for a takedown he just cannot find. Hernandez circles around in hopes of taking Hubbard’s back during the attempt, and Hubbard stands and leans against the cage. The two split, and Hernandez connects with an elbow. Hubbard digs a knee to the breadbasket while Hernandez throws hammers, and “Thud” knocks his head around with a combo of hooks. Hubbard’s front kick lands cleanly again, and he hurts Hernandez with another short flurry. Hernandez bites down on his mouthpiece and throws back hard, and they slug it out with punches, kicks, knees and a spinning kick for good measure. The round ends as they go for broke, blood flowing out of Hernandez’ face from numerous clean connects.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hubbard (29-28 Hernandez)
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Hubbard (29-28 Hernandez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hubbard (29-28 Hernandez)

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Austin Hubbard via Split Decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, acknowledging his talent but inconsistency. He notes Hernandez has all the tools but often makes poor decisions. He believes this matchup allows Hernandez to be himself, but he is not confident enough to bet on Hernandez as a favorite. He would only bet if Hernandez is an underdog.

Would only bet if Hernandez is an underdog
"I'm picking Alexander Hernandez here... I am not going to bet on him as a favorite"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Austin Hubbard

Big Brady picks Austin Hubbard as a live dog, citing Hernandez's poor cardio, lack of heart, and short-notice fight at elevation. He expects Hernandez to win the first round but fade, while Hubbard's toughness and cardio will allow him to take over and win a decision, possibly with a late finish.

"I like Hubbert here as a dog I'm going to pick him to win this fight by decision but I wouldn't rule out like a late finish because Hernandez just crumbles time and time again at elevation short notice um …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Austin Hubbard

Cody picks Hubbard, citing Hernandez's inconsistency and cardio issues. He notes Hubbard's toughness and experience at altitude, believing Hubbard can outlast Hernandez and win a decision or late finish.

"I think I'm gonna take hubard"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Connor picks Hernandez despite his confidence issues, noting that Hernandez has the physical tools to win. He points out that Hubbard is a talentless bully who only wins by being more physical, and Hernandez has the speed and power to overwhelm him. However, he acknowledges the altitude and short notice could be factors.

"I'm going to take Hernandez though. I'm going to take Hernandez to any, any fight where it seems even remotely possible that Hernandez could win it by mistake."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Austin Hubbard

Daniel Vreeland hesitantly picks Austin Hubbard, despite calling him 'harmless Hubbard.' He dislikes Alexander Hernandez, calling him a fraud and a bust. Vreeland notes that Hernandez has lost four of his last five and that Hubbard is durable and has shown output. He is not confident but refuses to bet on Hernandez.

"I'm going hubard here not confidently because how can you be confident in and harmless hubard"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The host leans with the physicality and explosiveness of Alexander Hernandez, believing he will land better shots, defend Hubbard's grappling, and eventually find a knockout in the second or third round. He notes both fighters are from Colorado but gives the edge to Hernandez.

"I do have to lean with the physicality and explosiveness of Alexander Hernandez which should allow him to land better shots defend the grappling of hubard and eventually find a Knockout in the second or third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Austin Hubbard

Paul picks Hubbard, agreeing with Cody about Hernandez's cardio and durability. He thinks Hubbard's pressure and altitude advantage will be key. He expects Hubbard to win by decision or submission.

"hubard will be the pick for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Hernandez after flipping a bottle of mayonnaise, which landed on Hernandez's side. He acknowledges Hernandez is better at lightweight and dangerous, but worries about altitude and Hernandez's tendency to gas out. He notes Hubbard trains at elevation but believes Hernandez's lightweight performances are superior. He predicts a TKO early in the fight.

"We're going with Alexander Hernandez here over Austin hubard TKO early in the fight"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Austin Hubbard

Zane picks Hubbard, citing the altitude and Hernandez's short notice as key factors. He notes that Hernandez has confidence problems and may struggle with the weight cut and altitude. Hubbard is a big strong guy who can grind out a decision if he imposes his physicality.

"I'm going to pick Hubbard with this fight being at altitude, and Hernandez coming in on short notice with his confidence problems."
LOSS vs Damon Jackson
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damon Jackson 1 32 of 87 36% 56 of 119 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:22
Alexander Hernandez 0 42 of 85 49% 85 of 135 3 of 7 42% 0 0 6:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damon Jackson 0 8 of 27 29% 10 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Alexander Hernandez 0 10 of 21 47% 36 of 49 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:35
2 Damon Jackson 0 19 of 49 38% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexander Hernandez 0 23 of 52 44% 33 of 65 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:22
3 Damon Jackson 1 5 of 11 45% 27 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:19
Alexander Hernandez 0 9 of 12 75% 16 of 21 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damon Jackson 32 of 87 36% 20 of 69 6 of 11 6 of 7 29 of 80 0 of 3 3 of 4
Alexander Hernandez 42 of 85 49% 20 of 60 10 of 12 12 of 13 30 of 68 11 of 16 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damon Jackson 8 of 27 29% 4 of 23 1 of 1 3 of 3 8 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 10 of 21 47% 3 of 13 2 of 3 5 of 5 8 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Damon Jackson 19 of 49 38% 11 of 35 5 of 10 3 of 4 19 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 23 of 52 44% 13 of 40 4 of 5 6 of 7 20 of 47 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Damon Jackson 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 2 3 of 4
Alexander Hernandez 9 of 12 75% 4 of 7 4 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 9 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Hernandez (147.5: Missed Weight) vs. Damon Jackson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-205), Jackson (+170)

Round 1
Serving as the co-headliner is a match previously scheduled at featherweight. Instead, Hernandez (14-7, 6-6 UFC) botched his weight cut and exceeded the limit by a pound and a half on his second attempt. He surrenders a percentage of his purse to Jackson (22-6-1, 1 NC; 5-4-1, 1 NC UFC). Both men have struggled as of late, with Hernandez going 1-3 in his last four while Jackson has dropped two in a row. One of these two will get in the win column shortly, if referee Jason Herzog has anything to say about it. Hernandez offers an apologetic glove touch, and the magnificently maned Jackson does not accept it. Jackson prods out a front kick, and he wings a right hand that misses by a wide margin. Hernandez comes back at him with a head kick that is easily blocked, and he whips a kick low at the lead wheel. Jackson throws back his own body kick, and he turns Hernandez with a low kick. They both load up with right hands, and Jackson attacks the calf again. Jackson just misses with a front kick aimed at the jaw, and he catches a lazy kick aimed his direction and grabs hold of the younger man. Jackson grapples Hernandez from behind, getting away with a fence grab as Jackson tries to get a hook in standing. Jackson scores a number of knees to the back of the thigh, until Hernandez explodes and gets away. Hernandez manages to lure Jackson into a brief brawl, and Jackson sits down on a calf kick to again fluster Hernandez. Hernandez keeps a poker face and boxes Jackson in the jaw. Jackson catches the body kick and tries to procure a takedown with it, and he presses Hernandez to the wire. Jackson doggedly pursues a single, and he places “The Great Ape” gingerly on his seat. Jackson looks for offense when he gets there, only to find Hernandez springing back up after all of that hard work. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Jackson

Round 2
Jackson begins the round with a head kick attempt, and he bloodies up his foe’s nose during a punch exchange. Jackson surges forward with two punches, and he turns his hips into a kick to the side. Hernandez tries to throw back a few times, but he misses the mark each time. Jackson jabs his way forward, and he hammers the calf with a kick. Jackson keeps doing work on the calf, and they both let loose with big haymaker right hands. Hernandez times a leg kick with an overhand right, and he counters with a solid right hand when Jackson tries to come back at him. Hernandez zips a left hand around the guard, and he leans back to let a head kick buzz past him. Hernandez chops at the front leg of his foe, and that reminds Jackson to do the same. Jackson rushes forward with punches, and Hernandez strafes to the side and eats a body kick on the way out. They both swing for the fences, and Jackson’s chin holds up although a cut opens up on the bridge of his nose. Hernandez targets jabs on that bloody spot, and he gets off a calf kick as he backs away. Jackson punches twice and hits a double, putting Hernandez on his side. This results in a stalemate until Jackson springs into action, and when Hernandez stands up, Jackson takes his back and gets a hook in. Jackson slithers his arm around the chin, and he lets it go to slug Hernandez in the chops repeatedly. The round ends as Jackson is pounding on him.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Jackson

Round 3
Jackson only needs a few seconds before delivering a fierce leg kick. When he throws a second, Hernandez times it and rifles a right hand straight down the middle. Jackson goes down like a sack of bricks, and Hernandez leaps on top of him and starts hunting for a choke. Jackson scrambles to get out of the initial danger, and Hernandez climbs into full mount and squeezes down with an arm-triangle choke. Jackson turns all the way around and fights back to his feet, and Hernandez charges at him throwing bombs. Jackson uses that momentum to turn the corner and pursue a takedown, and “The Great Ape” digs in his heels and does not hit the mat. Hernandez considers going for an ankle pick, and Jackson kicks off the cage and manages to take Hernandez’ back. Hernandez gets flattened out as Jackson starts working him with fists, until he powers back to his feet and tries to buck Jackson off of him. Jackson keeps tight and hangs on until Hernandez manages to work him off. Jackson turns through and goes for a single, dropping down to his knees to complete it. Jackson grinds on the younger fighter when he cannot complete the takedown, and they jockey for position against the cage. They turn one another around without gaining an advantage or landing much of note. Jackson sticks his tongue out, and he lands several elbows and punches to separate right before the horn sounds. Scores could be all over the map.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)

The Official Result
Damon Jackson def. Alexander Hernandez via Split Decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez but with very low confidence. He acknowledges Hernandez is the better overall fighter and athlete, but he hates the weight cut to 145 lbs, which he thinks makes Hernandez slower, chinny, and potentially cardio-compromised. He notes that Damon Jackson is the type of grappler who can spoil plans and slow the pace. Angelo says he is only picking Hernandez because he is better everywhere except BJJ, but he hates the weight cut.

"very low pick on Alexander Hernandez"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Big Brady picks Alexander Hernandez to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Hernandez has the tools to win, including takedown defense to stuff Jackson's shots, and is the much better striker. He questions Jackson's chin and believes Hernandez will knock him out early. However, he acknowledges that if the fight reaches the second round, Hernandez tends to slow down and get broken.

win by first round KO
"Hernandez ko1 for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Cody also picks Hernandez but is wary of betting him at -210. He notes Hernandez's explosive first round and power, but his cardio fades after 7.5 minutes. Cody thinks Hernandez likely disposes of Jackson in the first round, but if it goes longer, Jackson's craftiness and submission threat could flip the fight. He calls it a dodgy proposition.

"Alexander Hernandez gets the job done and takes him out in the first seven and a half minutes... but it's a dodgy proposition"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Damon Jackson to upset Alexander Hernandez. He argues Hernandez is a front-runner who fades after round one, citing examples like the Billy Quarantillo fight where Jackson dragged him into deep waters. Vreeland believes Jackson's awkward length and grappling can neutralize Hernandez's early explosiveness, and if the fight goes past the first round, Jackson will take over. He notes Hernandez's recent win over Bill Algeo was unimpressive because Algeo is not a finishing threat.

"I'm gonna go Damon Jackson here for the upset."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Hernandez is faster, more explosive, and has more power. Jackson will struggle to close the distance and get takedowns. Hernandez can land big shots and likely knock Jackson out. The under 2.5 rounds is a good play as the fight should end early.

Hernandez by KO; under 2.5 rounds
"I expect that to produce a Hernandez knockout but what I'm going to be looking to hone in on is the under two and a half which isus 170 a little bit chalky"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Paul picks Hernandez but is hesitant because Hernandez is inconsistent. He likes Hernandez's athleticism, speed, strength, and wrestling, and thinks he can ground-and-pound Jackson. However, he worries about Hernandez's cardio and confidence, noting that he falls off after the first round. Paul sees a path where Hernandez finishes Jackson early, but if it goes longer, Jackson's BJJ and durability could cause problems.

"I am going with Alexander Hernandez... he just seems maybe not the better fighter but just the better athlete"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The host struggles with this pick, noting Jackson's surprising wins (e.g., over Jim Miller) but criticizes his lack of punching conviction. He picks Hernandez as the younger, more explosive fighter with reach and good initial takedown defense. He envisions Hernandez starting fast and clipping Jackson, though he admits Jackson could lay on him. He ultimately goes with Hernandez, calling Jackson 'Mega Mind' and hoping to see him removed from the UFC.

"I think I'm going to go with the younger guy in Alexander Hernandez here he's got reach he has got good initial takedown defense"
LOSS vs Bill Algeo
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Oct 07, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bill Algeo 0 75 of 156 48% 76 of 157 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:35
Alexander Hernandez 1 110 of 244 45% 119 of 257 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bill Algeo 0 16 of 39 41% 16 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexander Hernandez 0 27 of 61 44% 27 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bill Algeo 0 28 of 59 47% 28 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Alexander Hernandez 1 44 of 89 49% 52 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
3 Bill Algeo 0 31 of 58 53% 32 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Alexander Hernandez 0 39 of 94 41% 40 of 96 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bill Algeo 75 of 156 48% 25 of 80 45 of 66 5 of 10 75 of 154 0 of 2 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 110 of 244 45% 46 of 156 33 of 50 31 of 38 108 of 241 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bill Algeo 16 of 39 41% 1 of 12 11 of 19 4 of 8 16 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 27 of 61 44% 6 of 28 7 of 15 14 of 18 27 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Bill Algeo 28 of 59 47% 12 of 35 15 of 22 1 of 2 28 of 58 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 44 of 89 49% 21 of 62 13 of 16 10 of 11 43 of 88 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Bill Algeo 31 of 58 53% 12 of 33 19 of 25 0 of 0 31 of 57 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 39 of 94 41% 19 of 66 13 of 19 7 of 9 38 of 92 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bill Algeo vs. Alexander Hernandez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Algeo (-135), Hernandez (+114)

Round 1
Switching over to the main card, but still broadcasting on ESPN+ stateside, two featherweights right on the borderline of .500 UFC records will collide with intentions of stay on the right side of that line. Former lightweight Hernandez (14-6, 6-5 UFC) will try again in the lower weight division of 145 pounds, and Algeo (17-7, 4-3 UFC) will welcome him back down with bad intentions. With oversight and not a lick of nonsense from referee Keith Peterson, the two men tap their gloves together. Algeo switches stances when he starts the fight, reaching out with kicks from both legs. Hernandez swings a head kick at him that buzzes past his hair, and Algeo avoids it and salutes the strike. Both men trade low kicks, and Hernandez goes after one to the body. Algeo checks a kick and kicks the calf back, and he leans back from a power right hand that misses him by a small margin. Hernandez kicks his foe in the chest, and Algeo springs into action with two hooks and a high kick. Hernandez ricochets off the fencing to reset, and he leans low to block a head kick before the full power is on it. Hernandez aims punches to the midsection, and he opens up the head with these strikes. “The Great Ape” connects with a solid leg kick, and he ducks a head kick. Algeo kicks him in the gut with a side kick and sends him flying, and Hernandez springs back to his feet and is ready to block a spinning kick fired his way. Hernandez goes up high with his shin, and Algeo is able to defend against it and chip at the lead wheel with another kick. Algeo targets the body with a kick, and he snaps out a jab, and turns a full rotation to spin with a kick to the body. Algeo looks for an intercepting knee when Hernandez ducks to punch the body, and Hernandez aims his heavy strikes that are coming up just short. Hernandez digs punches to the midsection, and he keeps his guard up high in time to defend against a hook kick. Hernandez fires back with a kick that glances off the shoulder of his foe, and Algeo replies with a number of pawing jabs. Hernandez sweeps out with a body kick, and Algeo is right there to give him a low kick back when he sets his leg down. Hernandez looks for a leaping combination, only for Algeo to shoulder roll every blow and circle on the outside. Algeo threatens with a kick and a spin kick, but Hernandez does not bite on them and lets him turn back around. One body kick from Algeo concludes the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Algeo

Round 2
Round 2 begins with a half-hearted glove touch, and Hernandez follows it quickly with a kick to the ribs. Hernandez loads up on a right hand, and Algeo shakes it off and jabs the body. Hernandez puts power behind his strikes, and Algeo stays elusive and meets him with a knee up the middle. Algeo ducks a haymaker, and a second strike from “The Great Ape” bounces off the chest. Algeo jabs the nose and body, and Hernandez starts to crowd him and force exchanges in the pocket. The Texan parries a few punches and comes back with a big right hand, and Algeo turns to the side and lets it glide past him. Algeo fires off a right hand to the eye socket, and Hernandez complains that it was an eye poke. Peterson calls time and allows Hernandez to recover, and replays show it was the knuckle of Algeo’s thumb that jammed into the eye – which could be considered a legal blow. However, if Algeo’s thumb was not locked into the fist, it would be the legitimate foul, and Hernandez continues to take the time he needs as Peterson brings in the doctor to check his condition. After two minutes and 15 seconds, Hernandez informs the medical staff and Peterson that he is good to go, and the fighters touch gloves and have no ill will about the perceived foul. The action begins immediately, and Hernandez is headhunting with power strikes and stalking Algeo down. Algeo skirts on the outside and lands a few kicks to varying targets, with his intention of keeping Hernandez missing while he fights at his preferred range. Hernandez loads up on everything, and a few right hands get Algeo’s attention. When one solid right hook slams into Algeo’s chin, Algeo is energized and starts putting some power into his own strikes as well. Algeo turns his hips into a low kick, and a straight left hand that follows sits Hernandez down. Hernandez pops back up and ties Algeo up, trying to get his bearings back after getting his bell rung. The two separate, and Hernandez comes back with a vengeance. Algeo slips to the side and jumps at his man with a knee that pops into the nose, bloodying it up instantly. Algeo spins with an elbow that clacks into Hernandez’ cheek, and Hernandez tanks it and is loaded for bear. Hernandez plods forward and digs a punch to the body, and he chains a head kick into it that makes Algeo shake his head. Hernandez targets the body and goes up high, and Algeo leans back to take the worst out of it. The round ends with both fighters trading.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Algeo

Round 3
The featherweights are amped up and ready to finish the fight off with style, as the limited crowd gives it up for the two fighters. Hernandez races out of his corner with bad intentions, throwing hammers until he bullies Algeo to the wall and goes after a takedown. Algeo shuts it down and pushes Hernandez back, and he busts Hernandez in the chops with a straight right hand. Algeo stays loose while Hernandez is a coiled string, and Hernandez just misses a counter left that is a bit too low to find the chin. Algeo uses his traditional martial arts stance to put two side kicks on the chest in rapid succession, as range-keeping weapons that disrupt the bombs Hernandez looks to throw. Algeo suddenly whips a kick up high to hurt Hernandez, and he strings several punches into a body kick to conclude it with an exclamation point. Hernandez is tough as nails, as he swings back with all his might, with looping right hooks and heavy kicks to the body. Algeo reaches his man with a sweeping right hook and a left to the body, and Hernandez gives him a hard right hand back on the chin. Hernandez follows it with a second, and Algeo cannot quite shoulder roll that one. Algeo dings his man with a left hand with his thumb outstretched, and Hernandez tells Peterson he was poked in the eye again. Peterson asks Hernandez to keep fighting, and he does just that. Both men keep trading, with Hernandez kicking the body and aiming a few to the head as well. Hernandez steps in with a right hand on the jaw, and he slams his shin on the waist to follow. Algeo meanders back, and Hernandez blasts him with a huge right hook. Algeo takes it and does not bat an eye, instead going right back at his foe and making sure to not allow Hernandez to land strikes for free. Hernandez continues to stalk Algeo down, unloading anything he can throw, and they both land massive shots at the same time. Algeo tags Hernandez with a knee, Hernandez cracks him with a right, and Algeo trips him up and throws him to the mat. Hernandez climbs back up, and the scrap comes to a conclusion.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Algeo (30-27 Algeo)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Algeo (30-27 Algeo)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Algeo (30-27 Algeo)

The Official Result
Bill Algeo def. Alexander Hernandez via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Big Brady picks Bill Algeo, citing Alexander Hernandez's poor cardio, durability, and heart. He notes that Hernandez has been finished in the second round in most of his losses and that Algeo is tough, has never been knocked out, and can maintain a high pace. He expects Hernandez to win the first round but fade, allowing Algeo to secure a second-round finish, either by knockout or submission.

second round finish for Bill Algeo
"I'm going to take Bill algae to win this fight I'll take Bill algae to win this fight by second round knockout could be a submission as well"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Cody picks Hernandez, noting his athleticism, power, and improved cardio. He believes Hernandez is still in his prime and that Algeo's lack of physicality and takedown defense will be exploited. He suggests live betting Algeo after the first round if Hernandez fades, but expects Hernandez to win.

Hernandez by decision
"I'm gonna go ahead and agree again... gotta take another dog somewhere and I think Alexander Hernandez has a very good chance"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Daniel Levi picks Alexander Hernandez hesitantly, acknowledging his history as a 'talented flake' but seeing improvement in his last fight against Jim Miller. He believes Hernandez is the better athlete, faster, and more explosive, but questions his mental consistency. He notes that Bill Algeo has lost to similar talented flakes like Ricardo Ramos and Andre Fili. Levi thinks if Hernandez keeps his composure, he can win, but it's a tough call.

"I think on his best day he can beat Bill algo so hopefully it's his best day I'll pick him to win this fight"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2023 (fight day)
Alexander Hernandez

Lucrative James bet Hernandez as an underdog and sees him winning round one at a high clip, possibly by knockout. He believes Hernandez's wrestling is underrated and he can get takedowns at will. He thinks Algeo does not have the pressure or pace of Billy Quarantillo or Drew Dober, so Hernandez won't gas as badly. He calculates Hernandez should be around -150 based on round-by-round analysis.

bet as underdog, line moved to favorite
"I like Alexander Hernandez side here I bet him as an underdog"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Bill Algeo

Algeo has a better gas tank and an unorthodox style that will trouble Hernandez. Hernandez has a history of slowing down in later rounds, and Algeo's awkward movement and pressure should wear on him. Algeo may even get a late submission. The line movement toward Hernandez makes Algeo even more valuable. Expect Algeo to pull away in the second and third rounds.

late submission
"I think alio starts to pull away with this in deep water maybe even gets a late finish in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Paul picks Hernandez, citing his superior athleticism and power. He notes that Algeo is not physically strong and has been taken down in every UFC fight. Hernandez's wrestling and striking should be enough to win, and Paul likes the plus money value.

"Alexander Hernandez for me... at plus 125 that would be my pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

The MMA Guru picks Bill Algeo over Alexander Hernandez. He believes Algeo is very tricky to finish and underrated, with wins over Joe Anderson Brito and Herbert Burns. He criticizes Hernandez's cardio at featherweight, noting he gassed after round one against Quarantillo. He predicts Algeo will capitalize on Hernandez's mistakes and get a third-round finish, possibly by submission or TKO. He also mentions Algeo's potential for a post-fight mic moment.

third round finish, submission or TKO
"I'm going bilalgia I think he's very tricky to finish and I don't like Hernandez at featherway"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez but with very low confidence. He acknowledges Hernandez is the better overall fighter and athlete, but he hates the weight cut to 145 lbs, which he thinks makes Hernandez slower, chinny, and potentially cardio-compromised. He notes that Damon Jackson is the type of grappler who can spoil plans and slow the pace. Angelo says he is only picking Hernandez because he is better everywhere except BJJ, but he hates the weight cut.

"very low pick on Alexander Hernandez"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Big Brady picks Alexander Hernandez to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Hernandez has the tools to win, including takedown defense to stuff Jackson's shots, and is the much better striker. He questions Jackson's chin and believes Hernandez will knock him out early. However, he acknowledges that if the fight reaches the second round, Hernandez tends to slow down and get broken.

win by first round KO
"Hernandez ko1 for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Cody also picks Hernandez but is wary of betting him at -210. He notes Hernandez's explosive first round and power, but his cardio fades after 7.5 minutes. Cody thinks Hernandez likely disposes of Jackson in the first round, but if it goes longer, Jackson's craftiness and submission threat could flip the fight. He calls it a dodgy proposition.

"Alexander Hernandez gets the job done and takes him out in the first seven and a half minutes... but it's a dodgy proposition"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Damon Jackson to upset Alexander Hernandez. He argues Hernandez is a front-runner who fades after round one, citing examples like the Billy Quarantillo fight where Jackson dragged him into deep waters. Vreeland believes Jackson's awkward length and grappling can neutralize Hernandez's early explosiveness, and if the fight goes past the first round, Jackson will take over. He notes Hernandez's recent win over Bill Algeo was unimpressive because Algeo is not a finishing threat.

"I'm gonna go Damon Jackson here for the upset."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Hernandez is faster, more explosive, and has more power. Jackson will struggle to close the distance and get takedowns. Hernandez can land big shots and likely knock Jackson out. The under 2.5 rounds is a good play as the fight should end early.

Hernandez by KO; under 2.5 rounds
"I expect that to produce a Hernandez knockout but what I'm going to be looking to hone in on is the under two and a half which isus 170 a little bit chalky"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Paul picks Hernandez but is hesitant because Hernandez is inconsistent. He likes Hernandez's athleticism, speed, strength, and wrestling, and thinks he can ground-and-pound Jackson. However, he worries about Hernandez's cardio and confidence, noting that he falls off after the first round. Paul sees a path where Hernandez finishes Jackson early, but if it goes longer, Jackson's BJJ and durability could cause problems.

"I am going with Alexander Hernandez... he just seems maybe not the better fighter but just the better athlete"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The host struggles with this pick, noting Jackson's surprising wins (e.g., over Jim Miller) but criticizes his lack of punching conviction. He picks Hernandez as the younger, more explosive fighter with reach and good initial takedown defense. He envisions Hernandez starting fast and clipping Jackson, though he admits Jackson could lay on him. He ultimately goes with Hernandez, calling Jackson 'Mega Mind' and hoping to see him removed from the UFC.

"I think I'm going to go with the younger guy in Alexander Hernandez here he's got reach he has got good initial takedown defense"