UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 Next Fight
Age 33
Height 5' 7"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 30
Height 5' 8"
Reach 69"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Chepe Mariscal
4.14 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
2.66 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
2.34 TD Avg
39.0% TD Acc.
59.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Morgan Charrière
4.02 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
4.51 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
2.06 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
83.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Chepe Mariscal
Moneyline
FanDuel +126
KO/TKO
FanDuel +800
Submission
BetWay +1800
Decision
FanDuel +195
Morgan Charrière
Moneyline
BetRivers -129
KO/TKO
BetRivers +320
Submission
FanDuel +1400
Decision
BetWay +240
Chepe Mariscal - Fight History
LOSS vs Pat Sabatini
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Pat Sabatini 0 12 of 29 41% 40 of 61 7 of 12 58% 0 0 10:37
Chepe Mariscal 0 7 of 19 36% 48 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Pat Sabatini 0 4 of 11 36% 8 of 15 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:39
Chepe Mariscal 0 1 of 4 25% 5 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:33
2 Pat Sabatini 0 7 of 13 53% 21 of 31 4 of 8 50% 0 0 3:36
Chepe Mariscal 0 5 of 10 50% 32 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
3 Pat Sabatini 0 1 of 5 20% 11 of 15 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:22
Chepe Mariscal 0 1 of 5 20% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Pat Sabatini 12 of 29 41% 10 of 24 2 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 18 2 of 2 6 of 9
Chepe Mariscal 7 of 19 36% 2 of 13 2 of 3 3 of 3 6 of 13 1 of 4 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Pat Sabatini 4 of 11 36% 3 of 7 1 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0
Chepe Mariscal 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Pat Sabatini 7 of 13 53% 6 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 6
Chepe Mariscal 5 of 10 50% 1 of 6 1 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 5 1 of 3 0 of 2
3 Pat Sabatini 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3
Chepe Mariscal 1 of 5 20% 0 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal, praising his pressure, wrestling, and scrambling ability. He believes Chepe is the better striker and wrestler, and that Pat Sabatini's striking is stiff and he is chinny. Angelo is confident and placed a bet at -113, expecting the line to expand.

bet at -113 odds
"Chepee is the pick. And right off the rip, we've got a pretty affordable money line."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Big Brady picks Chepe Mariscal as a slight underdog, acknowledging a clear path for Sabatini via wrestling but favoring Mariscal's striking power. He notes Sabatini's questionable chin, having been knocked out by Damon Jackson and Diego Lopez, and believes Mariscal can exploit that. Brady sees Mariscal's judo as helpful in getting back to his feet and predicts a second-round knockout.

second round knockout
"Give me Chepe Mariscal to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Cody picks Sabatini, noting that his grappling is elite and that Mariscal has been taken down by everyone. He believes Sabatini has learned from his knockout losses and will stick to wrestling. Cody thinks Sabatini can grind out a decision or possibly submit Mariscal. He is not fully confident but sees the path.

"I actually have him going Pat Sabatini."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Connor also picks Mariscal, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Mariscal is one of the most fluidly offensively minded fighters and that Sabatini needs to dominate and stop the fight from happening, which he can't do against Mariscal. He thinks Mariscal's style is a nightmare for Sabatini.

Odds: Mariscal opened -200, currently -130? Connor says 'I agreed'.
"I agreed."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Daniel sees this as a close fight and picks the underdog Mariscal to win again. He notes that Sabatini's chin is suspect and Mariscal's judo and wild style could keep the fight standing, where Sabatini is vulnerable. He expects a back-and-forth scrap that could end in a knockout for Mariscal.

"I'm going to take the underdog chep Marisk to beat Pat Sabatini for a second time."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Lucrative James picks Pat Sabatini to win, believing his elite grappling and top control will be too much for Mariscal. He notes Sabatini's improved control since their first fight and Mariscal's tendency to be taken down. He expects Sabatini to secure takedowns and control the fight on the ground, possibly winning by submission or decision.

"I'm picking Patrick Sabatini to get his revenge and win this fight as the underdog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Mariscal makes it look more dominant than their first fight. He scrambles and stays ahead of Sabatini, then overwhelms him on the feet leading to a TKO victory.

TKO victory
"I expect him to make it look more dominant while he scrambles and stays ahead of the game with Sabatini and then eventually overwhelms Sabatini on the feet leading to a TKO victory for Jeep Mariscal."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Paul leans towards Mariscal, noting that he is a better striker and has knockout power. He points out that Sabatini has been knocked out when he tries to strike. Paul thinks Mariscal could win by knockout if he keeps the fight standing. However, he acknowledges the risk of Sabatini's grappling and is not fully committed.

Chepe by knockout (suggested at +370)
"Chepe by knockout if you get a good price on it, 100% on the table."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

The Guru picks Chepe Mariscal, highlighting his pressure, volume, chin, and scrambling ability. He believes Mariscal's stocky frame will make him hard to hold down for Sabatini, who relies on control. The Guru also notes that judging trends may favor Mariscal if the fight is close. He predicts a late finish or decision win for Mariscal.

"I'm going to go with Shet Mariscal here. Um, I actually might take him by finish for once."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Zane picks Mariscal, noting that Mariscal is an excellent scrambler who never stops fighting and that Sabatini struggles to lock him down. He thinks the fight will be uncomfortable for Sabatini because Mariscal is fluid and creative in scrambles. He also notes that Mariscal has never been submitted and has a good chin.

Odds: Mariscal opened -200, currently +110? Actually, transcript says 'Marasco is an underdog mind open a minus 200 currently plus one 10' but then '17, you the favorite, but a plus one 70 currently minus one 30' - likely confusion. Based on context, Mariscal is favorite at -130. Zane says 'I don't understand that at all' about the odds.
"I still think it's going to be a fight that it's just fundamentally uncomfortable for Sabatini because it's very difficult to lock Chepe Marasco down and keep him out of the fight."
WIN vs Ricardo Ramos
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ricardo Ramos 0 37 of 91 40% 37 of 91 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:28
Chepe Mariscal 0 85 of 162 52% 125 of 210 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ricardo Ramos 0 15 of 28 53% 15 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:28
Chepe Mariscal 0 28 of 49 57% 42 of 66 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:55
2 Ricardo Ramos 0 8 of 24 33% 8 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chepe Mariscal 0 42 of 67 62% 49 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:53
3 Ricardo Ramos 0 14 of 39 35% 14 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Chepe Mariscal 0 15 of 46 32% 34 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ricardo Ramos 37 of 91 40% 17 of 63 14 of 18 6 of 10 32 of 84 5 of 7 0 of 0
Chepe Mariscal 85 of 162 52% 59 of 122 9 of 14 17 of 26 64 of 132 14 of 19 7 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ricardo Ramos 15 of 28 53% 7 of 19 5 of 5 3 of 4 13 of 26 2 of 2 0 of 0
Chepe Mariscal 28 of 49 57% 24 of 43 1 of 2 3 of 4 13 of 29 8 of 9 7 of 11
2 Ricardo Ramos 8 of 24 33% 5 of 18 3 of 6 0 of 0 6 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
Chepe Mariscal 42 of 67 62% 29 of 52 3 of 3 10 of 12 38 of 63 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Ricardo Ramos 14 of 39 35% 5 of 26 6 of 7 3 of 6 13 of 37 1 of 2 0 of 0
Chepe Mariscal 15 of 46 32% 6 of 27 5 of 9 4 of 10 13 of 40 2 of 6 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal confidently, highlighting his relentless pressure, cardio, and well-rounded skills. He notes that Mariscal is not amazing at anything but his pace and forward movement wear opponents down. He sees the only path to victory for Ricardo Ramos as a slick submission, but believes Mariscal is too much of a dog to get caught.

"chpe should win this fight I think he's reasonably priced atus 400 he may be minus 360 on some sports books but he's about a three and a half or a 4 to one favorite here and I think that …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Big Brady picks Chepe Mariscal, noting his heart, cardio, and durability. He criticizes Ricardo Ramos for lacking heart, cardio, and durability, and expects Mariscal to break him. He predicts a third-round TKO finish.

Mariscal by TKO round 3
"I like Chepe here... I think he's going to cook Ricardo Ramos I think he's going to break him and I think he's going to finish him in the third round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

The host agrees with the public betting love for Mariscal, citing his high pace and superior overall grappling (wrestling and BJJ). He expects Mariscal to shut down Ramos's game, overwhelm him, and win on the scorecards.

public betting and parlaying him
"mariscal Tak taking a ton of love from the public in terms of betting and parlaying him and I have to agree I think he sets too high of a pace and has way a much Superior overall grappling game …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

The Guru picks Chepe Mariscal over Ricardo Ramos. He praises Mariscal's consistency, pace, chin, and ability to win scrambles. He criticizes Ramos as inconsistent and notes Mariscal is undefeated in the UFC. He predicts a finish, specifically a second or third round TKO.

"I'm going with Shep mariscal to win this fight... probably by finish... second or third round TKO for sheet mariscal."
WIN vs Damon Jackson
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Aug 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chepe Mariscal 0 32 of 49 65% 49 of 72 1 of 5 20% 0 1 4:18
Damon Jackson 0 73 of 100 73% 218 of 267 5 of 7 71% 0 2 8:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chepe Mariscal 0 18 of 27 66% 23 of 38 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:37
Damon Jackson 0 25 of 37 67% 53 of 69 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:05
2 Chepe Mariscal 0 8 of 12 66% 14 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:17
Damon Jackson 0 29 of 38 76% 94 of 114 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:30
3 Chepe Mariscal 0 6 of 10 60% 12 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:24
Damon Jackson 0 19 of 25 76% 71 of 84 1 of 2 50% 0 2 2:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chepe Mariscal 32 of 49 65% 5 of 16 26 of 32 1 of 1 5 of 15 27 of 34 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 73 of 100 73% 59 of 86 13 of 13 1 of 1 8 of 18 17 of 21 48 of 61
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chepe Mariscal 18 of 27 66% 3 of 10 15 of 17 0 of 0 3 of 8 15 of 19 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 25 of 37 67% 16 of 28 8 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 9 11 of 14 11 of 14
2 Chepe Mariscal 8 of 12 66% 0 of 2 7 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 2 7 of 10 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 29 of 38 76% 26 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 4 3 of 3 25 of 31
3 Chepe Mariscal 6 of 10 60% 2 of 4 4 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 5 5 of 5 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 19 of 25 76% 17 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 5 3 of 4 12 of 16
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal because he is the more well-rounded fighter with BJJ, kickboxing, and wrestling credentials, and is a dog who won't break. However, he is hesitant because Chepe is a favorite for the first time, his wins have been close, and Damon Jackson with a new hair transplant has been the best version of himself. He warns not to overexpose on Chepe.

Be careful; do not overly expose
"chpe is going to be the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Cody picks Mariscal because he is more durable, has a cast iron chin, judo black belt, trains at altitude with top fighters, and has good takedown defense. He notes Jackson needs to finish early and tends to gas, while Mariscal's forward pressure and volume will wear him down. Cody suggests a possible third-round finish.

Mariscal round three finish (plus 1000)
"chpe Marisol for my money's worth is just the more durable guy I mean when you look at Damon Jackson his best success is when he's able to get these guys down early submit them early"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Mariscal has a high work rate, good scrambling, and cardio that should overwhelm Jackson as the fight goes on. Jackson is dangerous early with submissions, but if he doesn't finish, Mariscal will take over in rounds two and three. The prediction is Mariscal by decision, with a possible third-round finish.

Mariscal by decision; possible third-round finish
"Jackson will have success early here but given the scrambling ability and just constant work rate of mariscal I think we're going to see Jackson really start to slow down and later on in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Paul echoes Cody's sentiments, highlighting Mariscal's activity, striking with ill intent, and ability to get back to his feet. He notes Jackson's history of gassing and that Mariscal has the dog in him. Paul also jokes about Jackson's new hair plugs giving him confidence.

"Maris skull's just the more active fighter more busy on the feet lands with a little bit more ill intent the risk of getting taken down controlled is there but we know he's going to be fighting tooth and nail …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

The MMA Guru picks Chepe Mariscal, comparing him to a slightly worse Dan Ige. He highlights Mariscal's scrambling ability, pressure, and striking advantage over Damon Jackson. He notes Jackson's grappling threat but believes Mariscal's 'ball of muscle' physique and urgency in scrambles will neutralize it. He also jokes about hairline envy affecting Jackson.

"I'm gonna go with shet mariscal over Damon Jackson... I just think he's levels above him on the feet and he'll keep scrambling with him"
Decision (split) (29–28, 27–30, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chepe Mariscal 0 49 of 104 47% 75 of 139 2 of 5 40% 1 1 3:42
Morgan Charrière 0 71 of 137 51% 121 of 199 1 of 8 12% 0 1 3:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chepe Mariscal 0 10 of 24 41% 19 of 37 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:57
Morgan Charrière 0 16 of 29 55% 25 of 44 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:30
2 Chepe Mariscal 0 33 of 61 54% 35 of 63 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:24
Morgan Charrière 0 32 of 67 47% 32 of 67 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
3 Chepe Mariscal 0 6 of 19 31% 21 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:21
Morgan Charrière 0 23 of 41 56% 64 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chepe Mariscal 49 of 104 47% 30 of 83 16 of 17 3 of 4 45 of 98 4 of 6 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 71 of 137 51% 42 of 94 10 of 19 19 of 24 50 of 110 12 of 17 9 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chepe Mariscal 10 of 24 41% 7 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 19 3 of 5 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 16 of 29 55% 5 of 14 2 of 5 9 of 10 7 of 16 9 of 13 0 of 0
2 Chepe Mariscal 33 of 61 54% 20 of 48 11 of 11 2 of 2 32 of 60 1 of 1 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 32 of 67 47% 19 of 46 5 of 10 8 of 11 29 of 63 3 of 3 0 of 1
3 Chepe Mariscal 6 of 19 31% 3 of 15 2 of 2 1 of 2 6 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 23 of 41 56% 18 of 34 3 of 4 2 of 3 14 of 31 0 of 1 9 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal because he has been an underdog in all three UFC fights and is 2-0, showing he is tough, can pressure, and wrestle. He believes Chepe will make the fight ugly and grind out Morgan Charrière. Angelo notes that Chepe is currently a +145 dog and expects the line to move, so he plans to bet on Chepe soon. He mentions Chepe's BJJ championship, kickboxing credentials, and collegiate wrestling as reasons for his confidence.

Angelo plans to bet on Chepe at +145, watching line movement; expects Chepe to become favorite
"I like Chepe to make this fight ugly and grind out Morgan Charrière"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Big Brady picks Morgan Charrière to win by decision. He notes that Charrière is good everywhere, a really good striker and wrestler with vicious ground and pound. He acknowledges that Mariscal is tough and has the dog in him, but thinks Charrière has more ways to win and will be slightly better wherever the fight goes. He expects a back-and-forth war that goes to a split decision.

"I'll take sh for the win but I think the line is about accurate probably probably should be about to pick him here Sher decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Chepe has fought tougher competition outside the UFC, including Gregor Gillespie and Bryce Mitchell. He highlights Chepe's constant work rate, durability, and takedown game. Cody thinks Charrière's low output and tendency to fight close decisions make him a bad favorite, and that Chepe's pressure will earn him the win.

"I agree with you on all the takes there... he'll be the pick for me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Daniel Vreeland picks Chepe Mariscal, citing his toughness and Judo background. He notes Morgan Charrière is more athletic and powerful but has low output and close decisions against lesser competition. Vreeland points out Mariscal's win over Jack Jenkins was dominant, not a fluke injury, and his regional wins over UFC-level fighters like Yousef Zalal and Pat Sabatini. He expects a close fight but favors Mariscal's forward pressure and willingness to exchange.

"I'm going to pick Chepe here for the upset."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Mariscal is more battle-tested with higher output and volume. Charrière is more hype than talent, with cardio issues and a low pace. Mariscal can mix in grappling and striking, and his durability has held up. He should outwork Charrière and win by decision, with a possible late stoppage.

Mariscal by decision; sprinkle Mariscal round 3 at +2200
"I'm going to go marcow and marcow by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Paul is confident in Chepe Mariscal at plus money. He criticizes Charrière's low-volume, counter-heavy style and notes his record is full of split decisions. Chepe is aggressive, has good durability, cardio from training at altitude, and mixes in takedowns. Paul believes Chepe's constant work rate will overwhelm Charrière, especially in the Apex where judges favor damage and volume.

"I'm like in chpe I got some plus money plays on him already... if you're going to give me plus money on chpe mariscal I think he's got just the volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

The host expresses personal dislike for Charrière due to UFC signing him over Paul Hughes and Jordan Vucenic, but acknowledges Charrière is good. He notes Charrière's power, dangerous striking, great kicks, finishing instincts, and strong takedown defense. He predicts Charrière will smoke Mariscal by TKO, despite Mariscal's scrappy win over Trevor Peek.

TKO win predicted
"I think he'll smoke shet mariscal so I'm going to go with him by TKO"
WIN vs Jack Jenkins
TKO (arm injury) R2 3:19 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chepe Mariscal 0 41 of 68 60% 43 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Jack Jenkins 0 38 of 87 43% 87 of 143 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chepe Mariscal 0 31 of 50 62% 33 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jack Jenkins 0 23 of 60 38% 38 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
2 Chepe Mariscal 0 10 of 18 55% 10 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Jack Jenkins 0 15 of 27 55% 49 of 65 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chepe Mariscal 41 of 68 60% 16 of 36 13 of 18 12 of 14 35 of 60 6 of 8 0 of 0
Jack Jenkins 38 of 87 43% 14 of 53 11 of 16 13 of 18 23 of 65 14 of 21 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chepe Mariscal 31 of 50 62% 14 of 27 7 of 11 10 of 12 29 of 47 2 of 3 0 of 0
Jack Jenkins 23 of 60 38% 10 of 41 8 of 11 5 of 8 18 of 52 5 of 8 0 of 0
2 Chepe Mariscal 10 of 18 55% 2 of 9 6 of 7 2 of 2 6 of 13 4 of 5 0 of 0
Jack Jenkins 15 of 27 55% 4 of 12 3 of 5 8 of 10 5 of 13 9 of 13 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Angelo picks Jack Jenkins, citing his lethal leg kicks as the difference. He notes that Chepe Mariscal is a two-to-one underdog with great wrestling and striking, but Jack's leg kicks will take away Chepe's movement and takedown ability. Angelo has parlayed Jack Jenkins with Nasrat Haqparast at plus money.

Parlayed with Nasrat Haqparast at plus money
"I think Jack Jenkins leg kicks which are lethal and he has stopped multiple fights with them are going to be the difference"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Big Brady picks Jack Jenkins, citing his technical striking and wrestling. He notes a red flag from Mariscal's fight with Sean Soriano, where Soriano outgrappled him. He thinks Jenkins can mix in takedowns and control the fight. He predicts a decision win.

"I think Jack Jenkins gets it done and I think Jack Jenkins gets it done by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Cody picks Jenkins, citing his superior wrestling, leg kicks, and technical striking. He notes that Mariscal's takedown defense is not yet developed and that Jenkins can exploit that. Cody expects Jenkins to win by decision, possibly a close one, and likes the Jenkins by decision prop.

Jenkins by decision (+160)
"I think Jenkins pulls away in this fight great fight fun fight I think he gets fight of the night but I think Jack Jenkins is just a little more Superior"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Daniel Levi picks Jack Jenkins confidently, highlighting his leg kicks that have broken three opponents' tibias. He also praises Jenkins' defensive responsibility, fight IQ, and ability to mix in takedowns. Levi believes Mariscal's brawling style will leave openings for Jenkins to land his shots. He expects Jenkins to take over in the second and third rounds, potentially getting a knockout or a decision.

Odds mentioned: Jenkins minus 200, Mariscal plus 170.
"I think that Jack Jenkins is just so much more technically sound so much more defensively responsible."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Jenkins is athletic, fast, with great wrestling and relentless calf kicking that destroys opponents' movement. He blends striking and wrestling well. Mariscal is a short-notice call-up who showed good wrestling but may have durability issues. Jenkins has physical advantages and should win by decision, with a small sprinkle on a KO prop due to Mariscal's potential chin issues.

small sprinkle on KO prop
"give me Jenkins and Jenkins by decision small sprinkle on a potential KO prop here in case mariscal's chin uh is still as flimsy as I believe it could be"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Paul picks Jenkins but is leaning, noting that Jenkins should lean on his wrestling and make it ugly. He acknowledges that Mariscal is tough and durable, but believes Jenkins' wrestling and striking will be the difference. Paul sees this as a potential fight of the night.

"Jenkins will be the pick for I I imagine lean on the wrestling a little bit wear them down make it a little bit uh ugly don't turn it into a slobber knocker"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

The MMA Guru picks Jack Jenkins over Chepe Mariscal, calling it a no-brainer. He notes that Jenkins is an extremely technical striker with a tight guard, while Mariscal is less technical. He acknowledges Mariscal's win over Trevor Peek but points out that Peek is a sloppy fighter. Jenkins has a close decision loss to Jamal Emmers but is active, having fought twice this year. He predicts Jenkins will win a competitive 29-28 decision, possibly losing the third round.

"I'm gonna go Jack Jenkins"
WIN vs Trevor Peek
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chepe Mariscal 0 51 of 125 40% 65 of 140 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:23
Trevor Peek 0 71 of 117 60% 145 of 203 4 of 12 33% 1 1 5:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chepe Mariscal 0 24 of 59 40% 29 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Trevor Peek 0 26 of 51 50% 45 of 71 3 of 4 75% 1 0 1:49
2 Chepe Mariscal 0 13 of 22 59% 16 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:52
Trevor Peek 0 12 of 17 70% 44 of 54 1 of 4 25% 0 1 2:33
3 Chepe Mariscal 0 14 of 44 31% 20 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Trevor Peek 0 33 of 49 67% 56 of 78 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chepe Mariscal 51 of 125 40% 25 of 91 23 of 31 3 of 3 39 of 105 12 of 20 0 of 0
Trevor Peek 71 of 117 60% 51 of 94 11 of 14 9 of 9 41 of 78 20 of 23 10 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chepe Mariscal 24 of 59 40% 14 of 45 8 of 12 2 of 2 19 of 50 5 of 9 0 of 0
Trevor Peek 26 of 51 50% 18 of 41 4 of 6 4 of 4 12 of 32 7 of 8 7 of 11
2 Chepe Mariscal 13 of 22 59% 6 of 12 7 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 12 7 of 10 0 of 0
Trevor Peek 12 of 17 70% 6 of 11 4 of 4 2 of 2 4 of 6 5 of 6 3 of 5
3 Chepe Mariscal 14 of 44 31% 5 of 34 8 of 9 1 of 1 14 of 43 0 of 1 0 of 0
Trevor Peek 33 of 49 67% 27 of 42 3 of 4 3 of 3 25 of 40 8 of 9 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal, citing his superior experience and skills. He notes Chepe is a fantastic grappler who can duck under Trevor Peek's chaos and get takedowns. He mentions the line has moved from +170 to +155 and he has a quarter unit on Chepe at +155. He also strongly recommends the 'does not go the distance' prop as a safer bet.

does not go the distance; quarter unit on Chepe at +155
"I'm gonna pick chepe to win here he's got more experience more actual skills"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Big Brady picks Trevor Peek despite acknowledging that Mariscal is probably the better fighter with tougher competition. He compares it to the Torres-Moda fight where the better striker lost to a big shot. He trusts Peek's chin and toughness, noting Peek took a beating on the Contender Series and came back to finish. He also notes Mariscal is moving up a weight class on short notice. He predicts a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"I like Trevor Peak here and I like Trevor Peak to make this an absolute war and knock out mariscal in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Cody picks Peek, citing his durability and power. He thinks Peek's pressure will eventually overwhelm Mariscal, who has questionable durability. He notes Peek's size advantage and the rumor of a quick turnaround if he wins.

Peek by KO mentioned.
"I think at some point the dog's gonna come out of peak peek's gonna land something put him away."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Connor picks Trevor Peek despite acknowledging he is a terrible technician. He loves Peek's insane confidence and recklessness, which makes him effective. Connor notes that Peek is a great athlete with fast and powerful strikes, and his chaotic style overwhelms opponents. He thinks Mariscal is not technical enough to cross that confidence and will get drawn into a messy brawl. Connor admits he will keep picking Peek until and probably after he loses because he enjoys watching him fight.

"I'm going to keep picking Trevor Peak until and probably after he loses because I just love it."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Daniel Levi picks Trevor Peek, citing his physicality, power, and ability to take a shot. He thinks Mariscal is smaller and has been knocked out before. He believes Peek's brute strength and fight-changing power will be too much, especially as the fight goes on. He notes Peek's improved training after quitting his job.

"I think Trevor's gonna catch him um at some point in this fight so let's go Trevor"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

The host picks Chepe Mariscal to win, possibly by finish. He believes Mariscal is more experienced and talented overall, with a solid grappling and striking game. He notes Peek's brawling style and durability but thinks Mariscal can take advantage of Peek's aggression. He suggests the fight doesn't go to decision as a prop, but is cautious about Mariscal's durability.

fight doesn't go to decision
"give me Jose chepe mariscal to pull off the upset here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Paul leans towards Mariscal, citing his technical kickboxing and speed. He thinks Mariscal can outpoint Peek and avoid his power. He acknowledges Peek's toughness but believes Mariscal's technique will prevail.

Fight of the Night considered.
"I'll lean towards chapter mariscal mostly just to trigger you."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

The Guru picks Trevor Peek, calling him the 'Derek Lewis of the lightweight division' with good get-ups from takedowns and dangerous first-round power. He believes Mariscal, making his UFC debut on short notice, may have octagon jitters and get smoked. He predicts Peek will march forward, get up from takedowns, and finish with a standing hammerfist.

Predicts standing hammerfist KO in the first round.
"I'm going to be going with Trevor Peak here I'm going with the standing hammerfist KO in the first round let's keep the meme alive"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Zane picks Mariscal, reasoning that while Peek is fun to watch, his technique is terrible and he is a bad fighter. Zane notes that Mariscal has more technique and is always on the borderline of throwing it all away to brawl, but that inconsistency is a problem. However, Zane thinks Mariscal's ability to be a messy scrapper who can overwhelm opponents gives him the edge. He acknowledges that Peek's confidence and athleticism make him dangerous, but ultimately believes Mariscal's slightly better technique will prevail.

"I don't think that that serves him better. You know, not knowing or not being able to have the kind of fight you want. Is against somebody like Trevor Peak. That just gives me more pause about your ability to …"
Morgan Charrière - Fight History
KO R1 1:14 · UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape · Dec 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Melquizael Costa 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Morgan Charrière 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Melquizael Costa 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Morgan Charrière 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Melquizael Costa 4 of 9 44% 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 5 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 2 of 4 50% 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Melquizael Costa 4 of 9 44% 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 5 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 2 of 4 50% 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Morgan Charriere vs. Melquizael Costa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-110); Charriere (-110)

Round 1
Finally settling on a suitable—and spectacular—nickname, Costa (24-7, 5-2 UFC) now goes by “The Dalmatian” rather than some version of his name or a riff on some inside joke no one gets. He faces an equally dramatic traveler, Charriere (21-11-1, 3-2 UFC), who used to go by the nickname of “Luffy” in honor of the main character from anime series “One Piece.” There will be no Gum Gum attacks in the cage as long as referee Eric McMahon is in charge. The featherweights race towards one another, not bothering to touch gloves as Costa moves right to the center of the cage.
Costa pitches out a low kick and then one to the liver, the latter landing loudly. Charriere kicks him back, resulting in a back-and-forth kick-off. Costa aims a push kick to the knee of his foe, and he splits the guard with a jab.
Out of nowhere, “The Dalmatian” drops down and hurls a missile of a high kick, who falls to the floor off-balance. Before he hits the deck, his foot wraps just around the guard enough to completely separate Charriere from his senses. Even with Charriere blocking it, the sheer impact was enough to completely neutralize him.
Charriere collapses to his back, limbs seemingly stricken by rigor mortis, his eyes wide open but no one is home. Costa scoots back up to his feet and is about to drop down a punctuating blow, but he peels off seeing that his work here is done. After a very brief celebratory hoot, Costa drops to his knees in the center of the cage respectfully as he waits for Charriere to recover. Thankfully, Charriere sits up and is able to return to his feet before long, but he needs to be assisted out of the cage with someone having their arm around him. It is an emotional moment for the pink and blue-haired featherweight who may have just earned the biggest win of his career in ultra-violent fashion.

The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Morgan Charriere R1 1:14 via KO (Head Kick)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Cody picks Costa, citing his well-rounded game, durability, and ability to mix striking with takedowns. He notes Charrière's low volume and tendency to wait, while Costa is more active and willing to push the pace. He expects Costa to win a decision.

Costa by decision +150
"Melk Costa is the side for me."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Lucrative James leans toward Morgan Charrière, citing his ability to dictate where the fight takes place and his power advantage. However, he admits it's a 50/50 fight and not confident, noting Charrière's inconsistent fight IQ and Costa's kicking and grappling skills. He projects even odds at -110 each.

"I will say that Sharier gets it done just cuz I think that he can probably dictate where the fight takes place."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Paul also picks Costa, emphasizing his blend of skills and recent submission streak. He thinks Charrière is skilled but often does not do enough, while Costa's forward pressure and grappling will secure the win. He suggests Costa by decision.

Costa by decision +150
"Melk Costa by decision."
WIN vs Nate Landwehr
KO R3 0:27 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Landwehr 0 63 of 155 40% 65 of 158 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Morgan Charrière 1 67 of 131 51% 67 of 131 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Landwehr 0 18 of 46 39% 20 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Morgan Charrière 0 27 of 43 62% 27 of 43 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:01
2 Nate Landwehr 0 43 of 103 41% 43 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Morgan Charrière 0 33 of 64 51% 33 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Nate Landwehr 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Morgan Charrière 1 7 of 24 29% 7 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Landwehr 63 of 155 40% 54 of 142 7 of 9 2 of 4 63 of 153 0 of 2 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 67 of 131 51% 41 of 100 12 of 14 14 of 17 64 of 124 2 of 3 1 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Landwehr 18 of 46 39% 14 of 40 3 of 3 1 of 3 18 of 45 0 of 1 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 27 of 43 62% 14 of 29 3 of 3 10 of 11 25 of 41 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Nate Landwehr 43 of 103 41% 38 of 96 4 of 6 1 of 1 43 of 102 0 of 1 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 33 of 64 51% 20 of 47 9 of 11 4 of 6 33 of 61 0 of 1 0 of 2
3 Nate Landwehr 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 7 of 24 29% 7 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Angelo is very confident Morgan Charrière wins, calling him the better fighter everywhere except grit and determination. He thinks Charrière's striking, grappling, and wrestling are superior, and Landwehr's pressure won't be enough. However, he says he can't bet on Charrière because French fighters are too unreliable.

Cannot bet on Charrière due to unreliability of French fighters.
"Morgan's the pick. I'm very confident in that. But, I think we've learned you can't bet on them."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Big Brady thinks Morgan Charrière is the more skilled fighter everywhere, with better striking and underrated grappling. He notes Charrière has only been finished once and has good cardio. However, he hates the -260 line and worries about a hometown decision for Landwehr. He picks Charrière by decision.

decision
"I'll take Char to win this fight. I'll take it to win by decision. Hate the line, but I hate most lines on this card."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Connor picks Charrière confidently, noting that Landwehr is a simple brawler who will walk into shots, while Charrière is younger, faster, and more technical. He compares Landwehr's style to Doo Ho Choi's win over Landwehr, where Choi easily countered him. Connor believes Charrière's craft and gas tank should allow him to pick Landwehr apart, though he warns that Charrière has a tendency to wait and see, which could be dangerous against a relentless pressure fighter.

"I think you have to pick Charia here, but I like it. ... It's a great fight and it'll be a thriller because Landware won't ever give Charia space."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

The host acknowledges that Charrière's slow pace striking approach caught up with him against Nathaniel Wood, but believes he will land bigger shots and mix in takedowns against Landwehr. He expects Landwehr to struggle with output and volume, leading to Charrière winning a decision. The pick is based on Charrière's power and ability to control the fight.

"Sherriier's slow pace striking approach caught up with him last time around as he came up short against Nathaniel Wood. And that could come back to haunt him here against Nate the Train, but I think ultimately we'll see Sherriier …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

The MMA Guru picks Morgan Charrière, expressing concern about Nate Landwehr's recent performance against Doo Ho Choi where he looked slower and was easily hit. He notes Charrière's experience in five-round fights and his competitive showing against Shep Mariscal. He believes Charrière can catch Landwehr on the chin and finish him by TKO in the first round, as Landwehr's chin may be compromised.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Morgan Sharier. I reckon he gets this win and then they look to put him on the Paris card. I think he'll get a TKO win over Nate Lamwear here in the first round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Charrière because Landwehr presents similar problems to Nathaniel Wood and Chepe Mariscal but in a simpler, bludgeoning way. He notes that Landwehr's wins come through sheer durability and brawling, but Charrière has the technical skill to counter him. Zane adds that if Charrière loses, it would be a huge red flag about his potential.

"I think this is a good reasonable step back. ... I think you have to pick Charia here."
LOSS vs Nathaniel Wood
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 1 72 of 119 60% 89 of 136 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:00
Morgan Charrière 0 42 of 94 44% 69 of 125 1 of 3 33% 0 1 3:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 1 15 of 26 57% 31 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:51
Morgan Charrière 0 5 of 10 50% 30 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:40
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 35 of 51 68% 36 of 52 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:09
Morgan Charrière 0 18 of 38 47% 20 of 40 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:44
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 22 of 42 52% 22 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Morgan Charrière 0 19 of 46 41% 19 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 72 of 119 60% 42 of 80 5 of 8 25 of 31 62 of 104 3 of 4 7 of 11
Morgan Charrière 42 of 94 44% 21 of 64 13 of 18 8 of 12 37 of 87 3 of 3 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 15 of 26 57% 9 of 17 1 of 1 5 of 8 8 of 15 0 of 0 7 of 11
Morgan Charrière 5 of 10 50% 2 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 5 3 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 4
2 Nathaniel Wood 35 of 51 68% 21 of 35 4 of 5 10 of 11 32 of 48 3 of 3 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 18 of 38 47% 9 of 28 8 of 8 1 of 2 16 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Nathaniel Wood 22 of 42 52% 12 of 28 0 of 2 10 of 12 22 of 41 0 of 1 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 19 of 46 41% 10 of 31 5 of 10 4 of 5 18 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Angelo picks Morgan Charrière, comparing him to a French version of Chito Vera. He believes Charrière's pressure, pace, and wrestling will be the difference. He notes that if Charrière fights Wood the same way Muhammad Naimov did (minus the fouls), he'll get a win. He acknowledges Wood is good but favors Charrière's style.

"I like Morgan sherier to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Brady calls this a very close fight with split decision written all over it. He favors Wood's volume and thinks the judges might give hometown cooking to Wood. He notes Charrière is the split decision king (losing them) and predicts Wood wins a close decision.

Wood by decision
"I'm going to take wood here just to do a little bit more and I'll say Morgan shé loses his like 50th decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Connor picks Charrière, agreeing with Zane. He highlights Wood's fatal flaw of trying to do everything, which will allow Charrière to react and scramble. Charrière's aggression and durability, as shown in the Mario Bautista fight, make him a tough matchup. Connor believes Charrière's physicality and willingness to scrap will edge out Wood's technical but flawed game.

Charrière opened at -193, currently -144; Wood opened at +147, currently +128.
"I got a picture. Yeah, love it. Love it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The host believes featherweight is Wood's ideal weight class, and he will showcase his output advantage and slick grappling to keep Charrière on the defensive. Wood's activity level will lead to an optical win on the scorecards.

"I think we'll see him showcase his output advantage as well as some slick grappling that could keep Cher on the defensive for the most part."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

The Guru picks Morgan Charrière, believing that Nathaniel Wood's tendency to get badly hurt in fights will eventually catch up to him. He notes that Charrière has nasty finishing instincts and will capitalize if he hurts Wood. He expects Wood to be winning on the feet initially, but then disaster strikes and Charrière gets a TKO in the second or third round.

TKO round 2 or 3
"I'm going to go with Morgan sharer getting this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Zane picks Charrière, citing his athleticism and ability to handle Wood's multifaceted game. He believes Wood's tendency to overcomplicate and insist on wrestling will play into Charrière's strengths, as Charrière is difficult to outwrestle and comfortable in the pocket. He notes Wood's losses to athletic fighters and expects Charrière's physicality to be decisive.

Charrière opened at -193, currently -144; Wood opened at +147, currently +128. Zane says the line feels just right.
"It just feels like sharia is probably too athletic for wood ... I'm kind of just making a physicality pick for sharia."
KO (punch) R2 0:27 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Sep 28, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Morgan Charrière 1 19 of 28 67% 28 of 37 2 of 2 100% 0 1 2:12
Gabriel Miranda 0 11 of 38 28% 17 of 45 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Morgan Charrière 0 16 of 24 66% 25 of 33 2 of 2 100% 0 1 2:10
Gabriel Miranda 0 10 of 33 30% 16 of 40 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:07
2 Morgan Charrière 1 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Gabriel Miranda 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Morgan Charrière 19 of 28 67% 15 of 23 1 of 1 3 of 4 10 of 17 2 of 3 7 of 8
Gabriel Miranda 11 of 38 28% 7 of 23 3 of 11 1 of 4 9 of 34 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Morgan Charrière 16 of 24 66% 13 of 20 1 of 1 2 of 3 9 of 15 1 of 2 6 of 7
Gabriel Miranda 10 of 33 30% 7 of 21 3 of 10 0 of 2 8 of 29 2 of 4 0 of 0
2 Morgan Charrière 3 of 4 75% 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 1
Gabriel Miranda 1 of 5 20% 0 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 22, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Angelo is very confident in Morgan Charrière. He praises Charrière's explosive striking, takedown defense, cardio, and scrambles. He believes Charrière will dominate, as Miranda is a one-dimensional BJJ specialist who is comfortable on his back but will get outstruck and controlled.

"Morgan's going to be the pick and pretty confident pick at that... I expect him to absolutely dominate in this matchup."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Big Brady picks Morgan Charrière by second-round knockout, noting Miranda is a round-one submission threat but has poor takedown defense and is stepping in on short notice. He expects Charrière's superior striking and grappling to overwhelm Miranda, dropping him and finishing him in the second round.

Charrière by second round knockout
"it's going be Shier second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Cody passes on betting the moneyline due to Charrière's high price (-700) and his history of close decisions. He notes Charrière's low volume and tendency to leave fights to the judges. He might look at props but doesn't have a strong pick.

"it's a dogger pass for me probably a pass on the money line but I'll be looking at some props"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Connor picks Charrière because he believes Charrière's improved aggression and takedown defense will be too much for Miranda, who is a one-dimensional grappler. He notes that Charrière has never been submitted and has only lost close decisions, while Miranda tends to give up position in pursuit of submissions. Connor points out that Miranda's striking is poor and his path to victory is narrow, while Charrière should be able to outwork him over three rounds.

Odds: Charrière -671, Miranda +494. Connor expresses surprise at the odds, noting Charrière should not be the biggest favorite on the card.
"It should be a really good bounce back for him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Daniel Vreeland picks Morgan Charrière to win by knockout. He believes Charrière is a better striker with good durability and cardio, while Miranda is a first-round finisher who fades. He thinks Charrière will stuff takedowns and land a body kick or other strike to finish Miranda.

wins by KO
"I think Shy's gonna knock him out personally I think the body Kick's gonna be money"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

JP picks Morgan Charrière because he thinks Charrière is better everywhere and has fought better competition. He notes Miranda is a submission specialist but Charrière is better on the ground and feet. He also jokes about Miranda's mustache and age (34). He expects Charrière to win easily.

"Shier he's just better everywhere uh better on on the ground better on the feet I think I like Shier a lot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Paul picks Charrière to win but acknowledges the price is too high. He notes Charrière's durability and power, and Miranda's susceptibility to submissions. However, he warns that Charrière's low volume and close decision history make -700 a terrible bet. He expects Charrière to win but not at that price.

"Shier wins but minus 700 my God... he's the play no doubt he's the play at what stage do you put them"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

The MMA Guru picks Morgan Charrière over Gabriel Miranda, noting Charrière's good performances against Paul Hughes and Venik. He criticizes Miranda's age (34) and lack of quality wins. He predicts a TKO win for Charrière.

TKO
"I'm going to go with Morgan sharier getting this one done by TKO I'm going to say TKO for sharer"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Zane picks Charrière because he sees Miranda as a limited fighter who relies on early submissions and has poor striking. He notes that Charrière has good takedown defense and has never been submitted, making Miranda's main threat ineffective. Zane also points out that Charrière's recent loss to Chepe Mariscal was a close fight where he showed improvement, and he should be able to handle Miranda's pressure. He believes Charrière will win a decision or possibly finish Miranda late.

Odds: Charrière -671, Miranda +494. Zane agrees the odds are high but notes Charrière is capable of losing close fights.
"It's very difficult to envision Miranda's path to victory."
LOSS vs Chepe Mariscal
Decision (split) (29–28, 27–30, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chepe Mariscal 0 49 of 104 47% 75 of 139 2 of 5 40% 1 1 3:42
Morgan Charrière 0 71 of 137 51% 121 of 199 1 of 8 12% 0 1 3:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chepe Mariscal 0 10 of 24 41% 19 of 37 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:57
Morgan Charrière 0 16 of 29 55% 25 of 44 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:30
2 Chepe Mariscal 0 33 of 61 54% 35 of 63 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:24
Morgan Charrière 0 32 of 67 47% 32 of 67 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
3 Chepe Mariscal 0 6 of 19 31% 21 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:21
Morgan Charrière 0 23 of 41 56% 64 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chepe Mariscal 49 of 104 47% 30 of 83 16 of 17 3 of 4 45 of 98 4 of 6 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 71 of 137 51% 42 of 94 10 of 19 19 of 24 50 of 110 12 of 17 9 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chepe Mariscal 10 of 24 41% 7 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 19 3 of 5 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 16 of 29 55% 5 of 14 2 of 5 9 of 10 7 of 16 9 of 13 0 of 0
2 Chepe Mariscal 33 of 61 54% 20 of 48 11 of 11 2 of 2 32 of 60 1 of 1 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 32 of 67 47% 19 of 46 5 of 10 8 of 11 29 of 63 3 of 3 0 of 1
3 Chepe Mariscal 6 of 19 31% 3 of 15 2 of 2 1 of 2 6 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 23 of 41 56% 18 of 34 3 of 4 2 of 3 14 of 31 0 of 1 9 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal because he has been an underdog in all three UFC fights and is 2-0, showing he is tough, can pressure, and wrestle. He believes Chepe will make the fight ugly and grind out Morgan Charrière. Angelo notes that Chepe is currently a +145 dog and expects the line to move, so he plans to bet on Chepe soon. He mentions Chepe's BJJ championship, kickboxing credentials, and collegiate wrestling as reasons for his confidence.

Angelo plans to bet on Chepe at +145, watching line movement; expects Chepe to become favorite
"I like Chepe to make this fight ugly and grind out Morgan Charrière"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Big Brady picks Morgan Charrière to win by decision. He notes that Charrière is good everywhere, a really good striker and wrestler with vicious ground and pound. He acknowledges that Mariscal is tough and has the dog in him, but thinks Charrière has more ways to win and will be slightly better wherever the fight goes. He expects a back-and-forth war that goes to a split decision.

"I'll take sh for the win but I think the line is about accurate probably probably should be about to pick him here Sher decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Chepe has fought tougher competition outside the UFC, including Gregor Gillespie and Bryce Mitchell. He highlights Chepe's constant work rate, durability, and takedown game. Cody thinks Charrière's low output and tendency to fight close decisions make him a bad favorite, and that Chepe's pressure will earn him the win.

"I agree with you on all the takes there... he'll be the pick for me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Daniel Vreeland picks Chepe Mariscal, citing his toughness and Judo background. He notes Morgan Charrière is more athletic and powerful but has low output and close decisions against lesser competition. Vreeland points out Mariscal's win over Jack Jenkins was dominant, not a fluke injury, and his regional wins over UFC-level fighters like Yousef Zalal and Pat Sabatini. He expects a close fight but favors Mariscal's forward pressure and willingness to exchange.

"I'm going to pick Chepe here for the upset."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Mariscal is more battle-tested with higher output and volume. Charrière is more hype than talent, with cardio issues and a low pace. Mariscal can mix in grappling and striking, and his durability has held up. He should outwork Charrière and win by decision, with a possible late stoppage.

Mariscal by decision; sprinkle Mariscal round 3 at +2200
"I'm going to go marcow and marcow by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Paul is confident in Chepe Mariscal at plus money. He criticizes Charrière's low-volume, counter-heavy style and notes his record is full of split decisions. Chepe is aggressive, has good durability, cardio from training at altitude, and mixes in takedowns. Paul believes Chepe's constant work rate will overwhelm Charrière, especially in the Apex where judges favor damage and volume.

"I'm like in chpe I got some plus money plays on him already... if you're going to give me plus money on chpe mariscal I think he's got just the volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

The host expresses personal dislike for Charrière due to UFC signing him over Paul Hughes and Jordan Vucenic, but acknowledges Charrière is good. He notes Charrière's power, dangerous striking, great kicks, finishing instincts, and strong takedown defense. He predicts Charrière will smoke Mariscal by TKO, despite Mariscal's scrappy win over Trevor Peek.

TKO win predicted
"I think he'll smoke shet mariscal so I'm going to go with him by TKO"
KO (body kick and punches) R1 3:51 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · Sep 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Morgan Charrière 1 26 of 49 53% 26 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Manolo Zecchini 0 9 of 41 21% 9 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Morgan Charrière 1 26 of 49 53% 26 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Manolo Zecchini 0 9 of 41 21% 9 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Morgan Charrière 26 of 49 53% 16 of 37 7 of 8 3 of 4 25 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 1
Manolo Zecchini 9 of 41 21% 5 of 30 1 of 4 3 of 7 9 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Morgan Charrière 26 of 49 53% 16 of 37 7 of 8 3 of 4 25 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 1
Manolo Zecchini 9 of 41 21% 5 of 30 1 of 4 3 of 7 9 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 26, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Angelo picks Morgan Charrière, citing his clinch work, cardio advantage, and ability to beat Manolo to the punch. He notes Manolo has more raw power but loops his punches. However, Angelo warns against betting at -260 on a UFC debut, calling it foolish.

"Morgan should have the cardio Advantage as well so he's gonna be the pick but minus 260 on a UFC debut fight seems foolish"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Big Brady is confident in Charrière, citing his well-roundedness, toughness, and experience. He notes Zecchini's lower level of competition and potential cardio/durability concerns. He expects Charrière to win wherever the fight goes, likely by taking Zecchini down and finishing with ground and pound in the second round.

Charrière wins by second-round TKO
"I like Sharia here... give me Sherry to win this fight I'll say second round TKO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Manolo Zecchini

Cody picks Zecchini as an underdog, citing Charrière's inconsistency and low output. He notes Charrière is a veteran with 30 fights but tends to be tentative and conservative. Zecchini comes forward, is willing to engage, and has finishing ability. Cody worries about French judges favoring Charrière but thinks Zecchini can win by pressuring and outworking him.

"I think I'm gonna take zucchini but like I don't feel great about this"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Daniel Levi picks Morgan Charrière, highlighting his athleticism, calf kicks, and toughness. He recalls a fight where Charrière survived a rear triangle choke and then delivered vicious ground and pound. Levi notes that Charrière has close fights with lower-level opponents but believes the athleticism gap is massive here. He expects Charrière to win but is not interested at the steep price, saying there is no value.

"I do got to go with Morgan charier I do think he's got more upside but at this price I don't really see where the value is"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 2, 2023 (fight day)
Morgan Charrière

Lucrative James sees Morgan Charrière as a huge favorite and believes the line is warranted. He thinks Charrière can win wherever the fight goes, with advantages in both striking and grappling. He expects a TKO finish rather than a decision, noting that Charrière's opponent is low-level and that Charrière can dominate on the ground. He acknowledges Charrière's past losses but attributes them to good wrestlers, which Zecchini is not.

"I think he's going to have his way wherever he wants it honestly I think he can win in the Striking and in the grappling."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

I like Charrière here. The UFC is giving him a perfect layup opponent in Zecchini, who isn't anything special and has poor takedown defense. Charrière should be able to take the fight to the ground and control it. However, I have concerns about his cardio and he's more hype than talent in my opinion. I think he wins by decision, but I might throw him in a parlay.

"I like sharier here I think that sharier will you know I'm not huge on his money line I might have him throw him in a parlay or two but you know I just have issues about his cardio and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Manolo Zecchini

Paul joins Cody on Zecchini, noting he doesn't step in front of Cody's dog picks. He mentions a prize picks prop of 44.5 significant strikes for Charrière, which he thinks is a pass because it would require a very low-output fight. Paul is not confident but follows the underdog trend.

"I'll join the zucchini front with you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

The MMA Guru picks Morgan Charrière by TKO, arguing that despite Charrière's losses to regional fighters not in the UFC, he has a strength of schedule advantage and is physically strong with good takedown defense. He believes Charrière has a massive power advantage and will finish Zecchini, though he admits Charrière doesn't deserve to be in the UFC.

"I'm gonna go Morgan charrier getting this one down by TKO"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal because he has been an underdog in all three UFC fights and is 2-0, showing he is tough, can pressure, and wrestle. He believes Chepe will make the fight ugly and grind out Morgan Charrière. Angelo notes that Chepe is currently a +145 dog and expects the line to move, so he plans to bet on Chepe soon. He mentions Chepe's BJJ championship, kickboxing credentials, and collegiate wrestling as reasons for his confidence.

Angelo plans to bet on Chepe at +145, watching line movement; expects Chepe to become favorite
"I like Chepe to make this fight ugly and grind out Morgan Charrière"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Big Brady picks Morgan Charrière to win by decision. He notes that Charrière is good everywhere, a really good striker and wrestler with vicious ground and pound. He acknowledges that Mariscal is tough and has the dog in him, but thinks Charrière has more ways to win and will be slightly better wherever the fight goes. He expects a back-and-forth war that goes to a split decision.

"I'll take sh for the win but I think the line is about accurate probably probably should be about to pick him here Sher decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Chepe has fought tougher competition outside the UFC, including Gregor Gillespie and Bryce Mitchell. He highlights Chepe's constant work rate, durability, and takedown game. Cody thinks Charrière's low output and tendency to fight close decisions make him a bad favorite, and that Chepe's pressure will earn him the win.

"I agree with you on all the takes there... he'll be the pick for me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Daniel Vreeland picks Chepe Mariscal, citing his toughness and Judo background. He notes Morgan Charrière is more athletic and powerful but has low output and close decisions against lesser competition. Vreeland points out Mariscal's win over Jack Jenkins was dominant, not a fluke injury, and his regional wins over UFC-level fighters like Yousef Zalal and Pat Sabatini. He expects a close fight but favors Mariscal's forward pressure and willingness to exchange.

"I'm going to pick Chepe here for the upset."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Mariscal is more battle-tested with higher output and volume. Charrière is more hype than talent, with cardio issues and a low pace. Mariscal can mix in grappling and striking, and his durability has held up. He should outwork Charrière and win by decision, with a possible late stoppage.

Mariscal by decision; sprinkle Mariscal round 3 at +2200
"I'm going to go marcow and marcow by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Paul is confident in Chepe Mariscal at plus money. He criticizes Charrière's low-volume, counter-heavy style and notes his record is full of split decisions. Chepe is aggressive, has good durability, cardio from training at altitude, and mixes in takedowns. Paul believes Chepe's constant work rate will overwhelm Charrière, especially in the Apex where judges favor damage and volume.

"I'm like in chpe I got some plus money plays on him already... if you're going to give me plus money on chpe mariscal I think he's got just the volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

The host expresses personal dislike for Charrière due to UFC signing him over Paul Hughes and Jordan Vucenic, but acknowledges Charrière is good. He notes Charrière's power, dangerous striking, great kicks, finishing instincts, and strong takedown defense. He predicts Charrière will smoke Mariscal by TKO, despite Mariscal's scrappy win over Trevor Peek.

TKO win predicted
"I think he'll smoke shet mariscal so I'm going to go with him by TKO"