Career Averages - Chepe Mariscal
Career Averages - Morgan Charrière
Chepe Mariscal
Morgan Charrière
Chepe Mariscal - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Sabatini | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 40 of 61 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 10:37 |
| Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 48 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pat Sabatini | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 8 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 |
| Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:33 | |
| 2 | Pat Sabatini | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 21 of 31 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:36 |
| Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 32 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 3 | Pat Sabatini | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 11 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:22 |
| Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Sabatini | 12 of 29 | 41% | 10 of 24 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 9 |
| Chepe Mariscal | 7 of 19 | 36% | 2 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 13 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pat Sabatini | 4 of 11 | 36% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chepe Mariscal | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Pat Sabatini | 7 of 13 | 53% | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 |
| Chepe Mariscal | 5 of 10 | 50% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 2 | |
| 3 | Pat Sabatini | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Chepe Mariscal | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal, praising his pressure, wrestling, and scrambling ability. He believes Chepe is the better striker and wrestler, and that Pat Sabatini's striking is stiff and he is chinny. Angelo is confident and placed a bet at -113, expecting the line to expand.
Big Brady picks Chepe Mariscal as a slight underdog, acknowledging a clear path for Sabatini via wrestling but favoring Mariscal's striking power. He notes Sabatini's questionable chin, having been knocked out by Damon Jackson and Diego Lopez, and believes Mariscal can exploit that. Brady sees Mariscal's judo as helpful in getting back to his feet and predicts a second-round knockout.
Cody picks Sabatini, noting that his grappling is elite and that Mariscal has been taken down by everyone. He believes Sabatini has learned from his knockout losses and will stick to wrestling. Cody thinks Sabatini can grind out a decision or possibly submit Mariscal. He is not fully confident but sees the path.
Connor also picks Mariscal, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Mariscal is one of the most fluidly offensively minded fighters and that Sabatini needs to dominate and stop the fight from happening, which he can't do against Mariscal. He thinks Mariscal's style is a nightmare for Sabatini.
Daniel sees this as a close fight and picks the underdog Mariscal to win again. He notes that Sabatini's chin is suspect and Mariscal's judo and wild style could keep the fight standing, where Sabatini is vulnerable. He expects a back-and-forth scrap that could end in a knockout for Mariscal.
Lucrative James picks Pat Sabatini to win, believing his elite grappling and top control will be too much for Mariscal. He notes Sabatini's improved control since their first fight and Mariscal's tendency to be taken down. He expects Sabatini to secure takedowns and control the fight on the ground, possibly winning by submission or decision.
Mariscal makes it look more dominant than their first fight. He scrambles and stays ahead of Sabatini, then overwhelms him on the feet leading to a TKO victory.
Paul leans towards Mariscal, noting that he is a better striker and has knockout power. He points out that Sabatini has been knocked out when he tries to strike. Paul thinks Mariscal could win by knockout if he keeps the fight standing. However, he acknowledges the risk of Sabatini's grappling and is not fully committed.
The Guru picks Chepe Mariscal, highlighting his pressure, volume, chin, and scrambling ability. He believes Mariscal's stocky frame will make him hard to hold down for Sabatini, who relies on control. The Guru also notes that judging trends may favor Mariscal if the fight is close. He predicts a late finish or decision win for Mariscal.
Zane picks Mariscal, noting that Mariscal is an excellent scrambler who never stops fighting and that Sabatini struggles to lock him down. He thinks the fight will be uncomfortable for Sabatini because Mariscal is fluid and creative in scrambles. He also notes that Mariscal has never been submitted and has a good chin.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Ramos | 0 | 37 of 91 | 40% | 37 of 91 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 85 of 162 | 52% | 125 of 210 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricardo Ramos | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 15 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 28 of 49 | 57% | 42 of 66 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Ricardo Ramos | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 8 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 42 of 67 | 62% | 49 of 76 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 | |
| 3 | Ricardo Ramos | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 14 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 15 of 46 | 32% | 34 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Ramos | 37 of 91 | 40% | 17 of 63 | 14 of 18 | 6 of 10 | 32 of 84 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Chepe Mariscal | 85 of 162 | 52% | 59 of 122 | 9 of 14 | 17 of 26 | 64 of 132 | 14 of 19 | 7 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricardo Ramos | 15 of 28 | 53% | 7 of 19 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Chepe Mariscal | 28 of 49 | 57% | 24 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 29 | 8 of 9 | 7 of 11 | |
| 2 | Ricardo Ramos | 8 of 24 | 33% | 5 of 18 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Chepe Mariscal | 42 of 67 | 62% | 29 of 52 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 12 | 38 of 63 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ricardo Ramos | 14 of 39 | 35% | 5 of 26 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 6 | 13 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Chepe Mariscal | 15 of 46 | 32% | 6 of 27 | 5 of 9 | 4 of 10 | 13 of 40 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal confidently, highlighting his relentless pressure, cardio, and well-rounded skills. He notes that Mariscal is not amazing at anything but his pace and forward movement wear opponents down. He sees the only path to victory for Ricardo Ramos as a slick submission, but believes Mariscal is too much of a dog to get caught.
Big Brady picks Chepe Mariscal, noting his heart, cardio, and durability. He criticizes Ricardo Ramos for lacking heart, cardio, and durability, and expects Mariscal to break him. He predicts a third-round TKO finish.
The host agrees with the public betting love for Mariscal, citing his high pace and superior overall grappling (wrestling and BJJ). He expects Mariscal to shut down Ramos's game, overwhelm him, and win on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Chepe Mariscal over Ricardo Ramos. He praises Mariscal's consistency, pace, chin, and ability to win scrambles. He criticizes Ramos as inconsistent and notes Mariscal is undefeated in the UFC. He predicts a finish, specifically a second or third round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 32 of 49 | 65% | 49 of 72 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 1 | 4:18 |
| Damon Jackson | 0 | 73 of 100 | 73% | 218 of 267 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 0 | 2 | 8:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 18 of 27 | 66% | 23 of 38 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Damon Jackson | 0 | 25 of 37 | 67% | 53 of 69 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 | |
| 2 | Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:17 |
| Damon Jackson | 0 | 29 of 38 | 76% | 94 of 114 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:30 | |
| 3 | Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 12 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:24 |
| Damon Jackson | 0 | 19 of 25 | 76% | 71 of 84 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 2 | 2:56 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chepe Mariscal | 32 of 49 | 65% | 5 of 16 | 26 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 27 of 34 | 0 of 0 |
| Damon Jackson | 73 of 100 | 73% | 59 of 86 | 13 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 18 | 17 of 21 | 48 of 61 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chepe Mariscal | 18 of 27 | 66% | 3 of 10 | 15 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | 15 of 19 | 0 of 0 |
| Damon Jackson | 25 of 37 | 67% | 16 of 28 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 11 of 14 | 11 of 14 | |
| 2 | Chepe Mariscal | 8 of 12 | 66% | 0 of 2 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Damon Jackson | 29 of 38 | 76% | 26 of 35 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 31 | |
| 3 | Chepe Mariscal | 6 of 10 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Damon Jackson | 19 of 25 | 76% | 17 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 16 |
Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal because he is the more well-rounded fighter with BJJ, kickboxing, and wrestling credentials, and is a dog who won't break. However, he is hesitant because Chepe is a favorite for the first time, his wins have been close, and Damon Jackson with a new hair transplant has been the best version of himself. He warns not to overexpose on Chepe.
Cody picks Mariscal because he is more durable, has a cast iron chin, judo black belt, trains at altitude with top fighters, and has good takedown defense. He notes Jackson needs to finish early and tends to gas, while Mariscal's forward pressure and volume will wear him down. Cody suggests a possible third-round finish.
Mariscal has a high work rate, good scrambling, and cardio that should overwhelm Jackson as the fight goes on. Jackson is dangerous early with submissions, but if he doesn't finish, Mariscal will take over in rounds two and three. The prediction is Mariscal by decision, with a possible third-round finish.
Paul echoes Cody's sentiments, highlighting Mariscal's activity, striking with ill intent, and ability to get back to his feet. He notes Jackson's history of gassing and that Mariscal has the dog in him. Paul also jokes about Jackson's new hair plugs giving him confidence.
The MMA Guru picks Chepe Mariscal, comparing him to a slightly worse Dan Ige. He highlights Mariscal's scrambling ability, pressure, and striking advantage over Damon Jackson. He notes Jackson's grappling threat but believes Mariscal's 'ball of muscle' physique and urgency in scrambles will neutralize it. He also jokes about hairline envy affecting Jackson.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 49 of 104 | 47% | 75 of 139 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 1 | 3:42 |
| Morgan Charrière | 0 | 71 of 137 | 51% | 121 of 199 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 1 | 3:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 19 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0:57 |
| Morgan Charrière | 0 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 25 of 44 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:30 | |
| 2 | Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 33 of 61 | 54% | 35 of 63 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Morgan Charrière | 0 | 32 of 67 | 47% | 32 of 67 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 3 | Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 21 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 |
| Morgan Charrière | 0 | 23 of 41 | 56% | 64 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chepe Mariscal | 49 of 104 | 47% | 30 of 83 | 16 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 45 of 98 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Morgan Charrière | 71 of 137 | 51% | 42 of 94 | 10 of 19 | 19 of 24 | 50 of 110 | 12 of 17 | 9 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chepe Mariscal | 10 of 24 | 41% | 7 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 19 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Morgan Charrière | 16 of 29 | 55% | 5 of 14 | 2 of 5 | 9 of 10 | 7 of 16 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chepe Mariscal | 33 of 61 | 54% | 20 of 48 | 11 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 32 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Morgan Charrière | 32 of 67 | 47% | 19 of 46 | 5 of 10 | 8 of 11 | 29 of 63 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Chepe Mariscal | 6 of 19 | 31% | 3 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Morgan Charrière | 23 of 41 | 56% | 18 of 34 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 9 |
Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal because he has been an underdog in all three UFC fights and is 2-0, showing he is tough, can pressure, and wrestle. He believes Chepe will make the fight ugly and grind out Morgan Charrière. Angelo notes that Chepe is currently a +145 dog and expects the line to move, so he plans to bet on Chepe soon. He mentions Chepe's BJJ championship, kickboxing credentials, and collegiate wrestling as reasons for his confidence.
Big Brady picks Morgan Charrière to win by decision. He notes that Charrière is good everywhere, a really good striker and wrestler with vicious ground and pound. He acknowledges that Mariscal is tough and has the dog in him, but thinks Charrière has more ways to win and will be slightly better wherever the fight goes. He expects a back-and-forth war that goes to a split decision.
Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Chepe has fought tougher competition outside the UFC, including Gregor Gillespie and Bryce Mitchell. He highlights Chepe's constant work rate, durability, and takedown game. Cody thinks Charrière's low output and tendency to fight close decisions make him a bad favorite, and that Chepe's pressure will earn him the win.
Daniel Vreeland picks Chepe Mariscal, citing his toughness and Judo background. He notes Morgan Charrière is more athletic and powerful but has low output and close decisions against lesser competition. Vreeland points out Mariscal's win over Jack Jenkins was dominant, not a fluke injury, and his regional wins over UFC-level fighters like Yousef Zalal and Pat Sabatini. He expects a close fight but favors Mariscal's forward pressure and willingness to exchange.
Mariscal is more battle-tested with higher output and volume. Charrière is more hype than talent, with cardio issues and a low pace. Mariscal can mix in grappling and striking, and his durability has held up. He should outwork Charrière and win by decision, with a possible late stoppage.
Paul is confident in Chepe Mariscal at plus money. He criticizes Charrière's low-volume, counter-heavy style and notes his record is full of split decisions. Chepe is aggressive, has good durability, cardio from training at altitude, and mixes in takedowns. Paul believes Chepe's constant work rate will overwhelm Charrière, especially in the Apex where judges favor damage and volume.
The host expresses personal dislike for Charrière due to UFC signing him over Paul Hughes and Jordan Vucenic, but acknowledges Charrière is good. He notes Charrière's power, dangerous striking, great kicks, finishing instincts, and strong takedown defense. He predicts Charrière will smoke Mariscal by TKO, despite Mariscal's scrappy win over Trevor Peek.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 41 of 68 | 60% | 43 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Jack Jenkins | 0 | 38 of 87 | 43% | 87 of 143 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 31 of 50 | 62% | 33 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jack Jenkins | 0 | 23 of 60 | 38% | 38 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 2 | Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Jack Jenkins | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 49 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chepe Mariscal | 41 of 68 | 60% | 16 of 36 | 13 of 18 | 12 of 14 | 35 of 60 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Jenkins | 38 of 87 | 43% | 14 of 53 | 11 of 16 | 13 of 18 | 23 of 65 | 14 of 21 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chepe Mariscal | 31 of 50 | 62% | 14 of 27 | 7 of 11 | 10 of 12 | 29 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Jenkins | 23 of 60 | 38% | 10 of 41 | 8 of 11 | 5 of 8 | 18 of 52 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chepe Mariscal | 10 of 18 | 55% | 2 of 9 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Jenkins | 15 of 27 | 55% | 4 of 12 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 13 | 9 of 13 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Jack Jenkins, citing his lethal leg kicks as the difference. He notes that Chepe Mariscal is a two-to-one underdog with great wrestling and striking, but Jack's leg kicks will take away Chepe's movement and takedown ability. Angelo has parlayed Jack Jenkins with Nasrat Haqparast at plus money.
Big Brady picks Jack Jenkins, citing his technical striking and wrestling. He notes a red flag from Mariscal's fight with Sean Soriano, where Soriano outgrappled him. He thinks Jenkins can mix in takedowns and control the fight. He predicts a decision win.
Cody picks Jenkins, citing his superior wrestling, leg kicks, and technical striking. He notes that Mariscal's takedown defense is not yet developed and that Jenkins can exploit that. Cody expects Jenkins to win by decision, possibly a close one, and likes the Jenkins by decision prop.
Daniel Levi picks Jack Jenkins confidently, highlighting his leg kicks that have broken three opponents' tibias. He also praises Jenkins' defensive responsibility, fight IQ, and ability to mix in takedowns. Levi believes Mariscal's brawling style will leave openings for Jenkins to land his shots. He expects Jenkins to take over in the second and third rounds, potentially getting a knockout or a decision.
Jenkins is athletic, fast, with great wrestling and relentless calf kicking that destroys opponents' movement. He blends striking and wrestling well. Mariscal is a short-notice call-up who showed good wrestling but may have durability issues. Jenkins has physical advantages and should win by decision, with a small sprinkle on a KO prop due to Mariscal's potential chin issues.
Paul picks Jenkins but is leaning, noting that Jenkins should lean on his wrestling and make it ugly. He acknowledges that Mariscal is tough and durable, but believes Jenkins' wrestling and striking will be the difference. Paul sees this as a potential fight of the night.
The MMA Guru picks Jack Jenkins over Chepe Mariscal, calling it a no-brainer. He notes that Jenkins is an extremely technical striker with a tight guard, while Mariscal is less technical. He acknowledges Mariscal's win over Trevor Peek but points out that Peek is a sloppy fighter. Jenkins has a close decision loss to Jamal Emmers but is active, having fought twice this year. He predicts Jenkins will win a competitive 29-28 decision, possibly losing the third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 51 of 125 | 40% | 65 of 140 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:23 |
| Trevor Peek | 0 | 71 of 117 | 60% | 145 of 203 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 1 | 1 | 5:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 24 of 59 | 40% | 29 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Trevor Peek | 0 | 26 of 51 | 50% | 45 of 71 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 1:49 | |
| 2 | Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:52 |
| Trevor Peek | 0 | 12 of 17 | 70% | 44 of 54 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 2:33 | |
| 3 | Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 14 of 44 | 31% | 20 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Trevor Peek | 0 | 33 of 49 | 67% | 56 of 78 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chepe Mariscal | 51 of 125 | 40% | 25 of 91 | 23 of 31 | 3 of 3 | 39 of 105 | 12 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
| Trevor Peek | 71 of 117 | 60% | 51 of 94 | 11 of 14 | 9 of 9 | 41 of 78 | 20 of 23 | 10 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chepe Mariscal | 24 of 59 | 40% | 14 of 45 | 8 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 50 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Trevor Peek | 26 of 51 | 50% | 18 of 41 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 32 | 7 of 8 | 7 of 11 | |
| 2 | Chepe Mariscal | 13 of 22 | 59% | 6 of 12 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Trevor Peek | 12 of 17 | 70% | 6 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 5 | |
| 3 | Chepe Mariscal | 14 of 44 | 31% | 5 of 34 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Trevor Peek | 33 of 49 | 67% | 27 of 42 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 40 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal, citing his superior experience and skills. He notes Chepe is a fantastic grappler who can duck under Trevor Peek's chaos and get takedowns. He mentions the line has moved from +170 to +155 and he has a quarter unit on Chepe at +155. He also strongly recommends the 'does not go the distance' prop as a safer bet.
Big Brady picks Trevor Peek despite acknowledging that Mariscal is probably the better fighter with tougher competition. He compares it to the Torres-Moda fight where the better striker lost to a big shot. He trusts Peek's chin and toughness, noting Peek took a beating on the Contender Series and came back to finish. He also notes Mariscal is moving up a weight class on short notice. He predicts a first-round knockout.
Cody picks Peek, citing his durability and power. He thinks Peek's pressure will eventually overwhelm Mariscal, who has questionable durability. He notes Peek's size advantage and the rumor of a quick turnaround if he wins.
Connor picks Trevor Peek despite acknowledging he is a terrible technician. He loves Peek's insane confidence and recklessness, which makes him effective. Connor notes that Peek is a great athlete with fast and powerful strikes, and his chaotic style overwhelms opponents. He thinks Mariscal is not technical enough to cross that confidence and will get drawn into a messy brawl. Connor admits he will keep picking Peek until and probably after he loses because he enjoys watching him fight.
Daniel Levi picks Trevor Peek, citing his physicality, power, and ability to take a shot. He thinks Mariscal is smaller and has been knocked out before. He believes Peek's brute strength and fight-changing power will be too much, especially as the fight goes on. He notes Peek's improved training after quitting his job.
The host picks Chepe Mariscal to win, possibly by finish. He believes Mariscal is more experienced and talented overall, with a solid grappling and striking game. He notes Peek's brawling style and durability but thinks Mariscal can take advantage of Peek's aggression. He suggests the fight doesn't go to decision as a prop, but is cautious about Mariscal's durability.
Paul leans towards Mariscal, citing his technical kickboxing and speed. He thinks Mariscal can outpoint Peek and avoid his power. He acknowledges Peek's toughness but believes Mariscal's technique will prevail.
The Guru picks Trevor Peek, calling him the 'Derek Lewis of the lightweight division' with good get-ups from takedowns and dangerous first-round power. He believes Mariscal, making his UFC debut on short notice, may have octagon jitters and get smoked. He predicts Peek will march forward, get up from takedowns, and finish with a standing hammerfist.
Zane picks Mariscal, reasoning that while Peek is fun to watch, his technique is terrible and he is a bad fighter. Zane notes that Mariscal has more technique and is always on the borderline of throwing it all away to brawl, but that inconsistency is a problem. However, Zane thinks Mariscal's ability to be a messy scrapper who can overwhelm opponents gives him the edge. He acknowledges that Peek's confidence and athleticism make him dangerous, but ultimately believes Mariscal's slightly better technique will prevail.
Morgan Charrière - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melquizael Costa | 1 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Morgan Charrière | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melquizael Costa | 1 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Morgan Charrière | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melquizael Costa | 4 of 9 | 44% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Morgan Charrière | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melquizael Costa | 4 of 9 | 44% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Morgan Charrière | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-110); Charriere (-110)
Round 1
Finally settling on a suitable—and spectacular—nickname, Costa (24-7, 5-2 UFC) now goes by “The Dalmatian” rather than some version of his name or a riff on some inside joke no one gets. He faces an equally dramatic traveler, Charriere (21-11-1, 3-2 UFC), who used to go by the nickname of “Luffy” in honor of the main character from anime series “One Piece.” There will be no Gum Gum attacks in the cage as long as referee Eric McMahon is in charge. The featherweights race towards one another, not bothering to touch gloves as Costa moves right to the center of the cage.
Costa pitches out a low kick and then one to the liver, the latter landing loudly. Charriere kicks him back, resulting in a back-and-forth kick-off. Costa aims a push kick to the knee of his foe, and he splits the guard with a jab.
Out of nowhere, “The Dalmatian” drops down and hurls a missile of a high kick, who falls to the floor off-balance. Before he hits the deck, his foot wraps just around the guard enough to completely separate Charriere from his senses. Even with Charriere blocking it, the sheer impact was enough to completely neutralize him.
Charriere collapses to his back, limbs seemingly stricken by rigor mortis, his eyes wide open but no one is home. Costa scoots back up to his feet and is about to drop down a punctuating blow, but he peels off seeing that his work here is done. After a very brief celebratory hoot, Costa drops to his knees in the center of the cage respectfully as he waits for Charriere to recover. Thankfully, Charriere sits up and is able to return to his feet before long, but he needs to be assisted out of the cage with someone having their arm around him. It is an emotional moment for the pink and blue-haired featherweight who may have just earned the biggest win of his career in ultra-violent fashion.
The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Morgan Charriere R1 1:14 via KO (Head Kick)
Cody picks Costa, citing his well-rounded game, durability, and ability to mix striking with takedowns. He notes Charrière's low volume and tendency to wait, while Costa is more active and willing to push the pace. He expects Costa to win a decision.
Lucrative James leans toward Morgan Charrière, citing his ability to dictate where the fight takes place and his power advantage. However, he admits it's a 50/50 fight and not confident, noting Charrière's inconsistent fight IQ and Costa's kicking and grappling skills. He projects even odds at -110 each.
Paul also picks Costa, emphasizing his blend of skills and recent submission streak. He thinks Charrière is skilled but often does not do enough, while Costa's forward pressure and grappling will secure the win. He suggests Costa by decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 63 of 155 | 40% | 65 of 158 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Morgan Charrière | 1 | 67 of 131 | 51% | 67 of 131 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Landwehr | 0 | 18 of 46 | 39% | 20 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Morgan Charrière | 0 | 27 of 43 | 62% | 27 of 43 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 2 | Nate Landwehr | 0 | 43 of 103 | 41% | 43 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Morgan Charrière | 0 | 33 of 64 | 51% | 33 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Nate Landwehr | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Morgan Charrière | 1 | 7 of 24 | 29% | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landwehr | 63 of 155 | 40% | 54 of 142 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 63 of 153 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Morgan Charrière | 67 of 131 | 51% | 41 of 100 | 12 of 14 | 14 of 17 | 64 of 124 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Landwehr | 18 of 46 | 39% | 14 of 40 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 18 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Morgan Charrière | 27 of 43 | 62% | 14 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 11 | 25 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nate Landwehr | 43 of 103 | 41% | 38 of 96 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 43 of 102 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Morgan Charrière | 33 of 64 | 51% | 20 of 47 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 33 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 2 | |
| 3 | Nate Landwehr | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Morgan Charrière | 7 of 24 | 29% | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Angelo is very confident Morgan Charrière wins, calling him the better fighter everywhere except grit and determination. He thinks Charrière's striking, grappling, and wrestling are superior, and Landwehr's pressure won't be enough. However, he says he can't bet on Charrière because French fighters are too unreliable.
Big Brady thinks Morgan Charrière is the more skilled fighter everywhere, with better striking and underrated grappling. He notes Charrière has only been finished once and has good cardio. However, he hates the -260 line and worries about a hometown decision for Landwehr. He picks Charrière by decision.
Connor picks Charrière confidently, noting that Landwehr is a simple brawler who will walk into shots, while Charrière is younger, faster, and more technical. He compares Landwehr's style to Doo Ho Choi's win over Landwehr, where Choi easily countered him. Connor believes Charrière's craft and gas tank should allow him to pick Landwehr apart, though he warns that Charrière has a tendency to wait and see, which could be dangerous against a relentless pressure fighter.
The host acknowledges that Charrière's slow pace striking approach caught up with him against Nathaniel Wood, but believes he will land bigger shots and mix in takedowns against Landwehr. He expects Landwehr to struggle with output and volume, leading to Charrière winning a decision. The pick is based on Charrière's power and ability to control the fight.
The MMA Guru picks Morgan Charrière, expressing concern about Nate Landwehr's recent performance against Doo Ho Choi where he looked slower and was easily hit. He notes Charrière's experience in five-round fights and his competitive showing against Shep Mariscal. He believes Charrière can catch Landwehr on the chin and finish him by TKO in the first round, as Landwehr's chin may be compromised.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Charrière because Landwehr presents similar problems to Nathaniel Wood and Chepe Mariscal but in a simpler, bludgeoning way. He notes that Landwehr's wins come through sheer durability and brawling, but Charrière has the technical skill to counter him. Zane adds that if Charrière loses, it would be a huge red flag about his potential.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Wood | 1 | 72 of 119 | 60% | 89 of 136 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:00 |
| Morgan Charrière | 0 | 42 of 94 | 44% | 69 of 125 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 3:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathaniel Wood | 1 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 31 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
| Morgan Charrière | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 30 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:40 | |
| 2 | Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 35 of 51 | 68% | 36 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Morgan Charrière | 0 | 18 of 38 | 47% | 20 of 40 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 | |
| 3 | Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 22 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Morgan Charrière | 0 | 19 of 46 | 41% | 19 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Wood | 72 of 119 | 60% | 42 of 80 | 5 of 8 | 25 of 31 | 62 of 104 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 11 |
| Morgan Charrière | 42 of 94 | 44% | 21 of 64 | 13 of 18 | 8 of 12 | 37 of 87 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathaniel Wood | 15 of 26 | 57% | 9 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 11 |
| Morgan Charrière | 5 of 10 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | |
| 2 | Nathaniel Wood | 35 of 51 | 68% | 21 of 35 | 4 of 5 | 10 of 11 | 32 of 48 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Morgan Charrière | 18 of 38 | 47% | 9 of 28 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nathaniel Wood | 22 of 42 | 52% | 12 of 28 | 0 of 2 | 10 of 12 | 22 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Morgan Charrière | 19 of 46 | 41% | 10 of 31 | 5 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 18 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Morgan Charrière, comparing him to a French version of Chito Vera. He believes Charrière's pressure, pace, and wrestling will be the difference. He notes that if Charrière fights Wood the same way Muhammad Naimov did (minus the fouls), he'll get a win. He acknowledges Wood is good but favors Charrière's style.
Brady calls this a very close fight with split decision written all over it. He favors Wood's volume and thinks the judges might give hometown cooking to Wood. He notes Charrière is the split decision king (losing them) and predicts Wood wins a close decision.
Connor picks Charrière, agreeing with Zane. He highlights Wood's fatal flaw of trying to do everything, which will allow Charrière to react and scramble. Charrière's aggression and durability, as shown in the Mario Bautista fight, make him a tough matchup. Connor believes Charrière's physicality and willingness to scrap will edge out Wood's technical but flawed game.
The host believes featherweight is Wood's ideal weight class, and he will showcase his output advantage and slick grappling to keep Charrière on the defensive. Wood's activity level will lead to an optical win on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Morgan Charrière, believing that Nathaniel Wood's tendency to get badly hurt in fights will eventually catch up to him. He notes that Charrière has nasty finishing instincts and will capitalize if he hurts Wood. He expects Wood to be winning on the feet initially, but then disaster strikes and Charrière gets a TKO in the second or third round.
Zane picks Charrière, citing his athleticism and ability to handle Wood's multifaceted game. He believes Wood's tendency to overcomplicate and insist on wrestling will play into Charrière's strengths, as Charrière is difficult to outwrestle and comfortable in the pocket. He notes Wood's losses to athletic fighters and expects Charrière's physicality to be decisive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Charrière | 1 | 19 of 28 | 67% | 28 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 2:12 |
| Gabriel Miranda | 0 | 11 of 38 | 28% | 17 of 45 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morgan Charrière | 0 | 16 of 24 | 66% | 25 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 2:10 |
| Gabriel Miranda | 0 | 10 of 33 | 30% | 16 of 40 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 | |
| 2 | Morgan Charrière | 1 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Gabriel Miranda | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Charrière | 19 of 28 | 67% | 15 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 8 |
| Gabriel Miranda | 11 of 38 | 28% | 7 of 23 | 3 of 11 | 1 of 4 | 9 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morgan Charrière | 16 of 24 | 66% | 13 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 7 |
| Gabriel Miranda | 10 of 33 | 30% | 7 of 21 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 2 | 8 of 29 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Morgan Charrière | 3 of 4 | 75% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Gabriel Miranda | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Morgan Charrière. He praises Charrière's explosive striking, takedown defense, cardio, and scrambles. He believes Charrière will dominate, as Miranda is a one-dimensional BJJ specialist who is comfortable on his back but will get outstruck and controlled.
Big Brady picks Morgan Charrière by second-round knockout, noting Miranda is a round-one submission threat but has poor takedown defense and is stepping in on short notice. He expects Charrière's superior striking and grappling to overwhelm Miranda, dropping him and finishing him in the second round.
Cody passes on betting the moneyline due to Charrière's high price (-700) and his history of close decisions. He notes Charrière's low volume and tendency to leave fights to the judges. He might look at props but doesn't have a strong pick.
Connor picks Charrière because he believes Charrière's improved aggression and takedown defense will be too much for Miranda, who is a one-dimensional grappler. He notes that Charrière has never been submitted and has only lost close decisions, while Miranda tends to give up position in pursuit of submissions. Connor points out that Miranda's striking is poor and his path to victory is narrow, while Charrière should be able to outwork him over three rounds.
Daniel Vreeland picks Morgan Charrière to win by knockout. He believes Charrière is a better striker with good durability and cardio, while Miranda is a first-round finisher who fades. He thinks Charrière will stuff takedowns and land a body kick or other strike to finish Miranda.
JP picks Morgan Charrière because he thinks Charrière is better everywhere and has fought better competition. He notes Miranda is a submission specialist but Charrière is better on the ground and feet. He also jokes about Miranda's mustache and age (34). He expects Charrière to win easily.
Paul picks Charrière to win but acknowledges the price is too high. He notes Charrière's durability and power, and Miranda's susceptibility to submissions. However, he warns that Charrière's low volume and close decision history make -700 a terrible bet. He expects Charrière to win but not at that price.
The MMA Guru picks Morgan Charrière over Gabriel Miranda, noting Charrière's good performances against Paul Hughes and Venik. He criticizes Miranda's age (34) and lack of quality wins. He predicts a TKO win for Charrière.
Zane picks Charrière because he sees Miranda as a limited fighter who relies on early submissions and has poor striking. He notes that Charrière has good takedown defense and has never been submitted, making Miranda's main threat ineffective. Zane also points out that Charrière's recent loss to Chepe Mariscal was a close fight where he showed improvement, and he should be able to handle Miranda's pressure. He believes Charrière will win a decision or possibly finish Miranda late.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 49 of 104 | 47% | 75 of 139 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 1 | 3:42 |
| Morgan Charrière | 0 | 71 of 137 | 51% | 121 of 199 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 1 | 3:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 19 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0:57 |
| Morgan Charrière | 0 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 25 of 44 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:30 | |
| 2 | Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 33 of 61 | 54% | 35 of 63 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Morgan Charrière | 0 | 32 of 67 | 47% | 32 of 67 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 3 | Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 21 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 |
| Morgan Charrière | 0 | 23 of 41 | 56% | 64 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chepe Mariscal | 49 of 104 | 47% | 30 of 83 | 16 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 45 of 98 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Morgan Charrière | 71 of 137 | 51% | 42 of 94 | 10 of 19 | 19 of 24 | 50 of 110 | 12 of 17 | 9 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chepe Mariscal | 10 of 24 | 41% | 7 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 19 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Morgan Charrière | 16 of 29 | 55% | 5 of 14 | 2 of 5 | 9 of 10 | 7 of 16 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chepe Mariscal | 33 of 61 | 54% | 20 of 48 | 11 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 32 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Morgan Charrière | 32 of 67 | 47% | 19 of 46 | 5 of 10 | 8 of 11 | 29 of 63 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Chepe Mariscal | 6 of 19 | 31% | 3 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Morgan Charrière | 23 of 41 | 56% | 18 of 34 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 9 |
Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal because he has been an underdog in all three UFC fights and is 2-0, showing he is tough, can pressure, and wrestle. He believes Chepe will make the fight ugly and grind out Morgan Charrière. Angelo notes that Chepe is currently a +145 dog and expects the line to move, so he plans to bet on Chepe soon. He mentions Chepe's BJJ championship, kickboxing credentials, and collegiate wrestling as reasons for his confidence.
Big Brady picks Morgan Charrière to win by decision. He notes that Charrière is good everywhere, a really good striker and wrestler with vicious ground and pound. He acknowledges that Mariscal is tough and has the dog in him, but thinks Charrière has more ways to win and will be slightly better wherever the fight goes. He expects a back-and-forth war that goes to a split decision.
Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Chepe has fought tougher competition outside the UFC, including Gregor Gillespie and Bryce Mitchell. He highlights Chepe's constant work rate, durability, and takedown game. Cody thinks Charrière's low output and tendency to fight close decisions make him a bad favorite, and that Chepe's pressure will earn him the win.
Daniel Vreeland picks Chepe Mariscal, citing his toughness and Judo background. He notes Morgan Charrière is more athletic and powerful but has low output and close decisions against lesser competition. Vreeland points out Mariscal's win over Jack Jenkins was dominant, not a fluke injury, and his regional wins over UFC-level fighters like Yousef Zalal and Pat Sabatini. He expects a close fight but favors Mariscal's forward pressure and willingness to exchange.
Mariscal is more battle-tested with higher output and volume. Charrière is more hype than talent, with cardio issues and a low pace. Mariscal can mix in grappling and striking, and his durability has held up. He should outwork Charrière and win by decision, with a possible late stoppage.
Paul is confident in Chepe Mariscal at plus money. He criticizes Charrière's low-volume, counter-heavy style and notes his record is full of split decisions. Chepe is aggressive, has good durability, cardio from training at altitude, and mixes in takedowns. Paul believes Chepe's constant work rate will overwhelm Charrière, especially in the Apex where judges favor damage and volume.
The host expresses personal dislike for Charrière due to UFC signing him over Paul Hughes and Jordan Vucenic, but acknowledges Charrière is good. He notes Charrière's power, dangerous striking, great kicks, finishing instincts, and strong takedown defense. He predicts Charrière will smoke Mariscal by TKO, despite Mariscal's scrappy win over Trevor Peek.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Charrière | 1 | 26 of 49 | 53% | 26 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Manolo Zecchini | 0 | 9 of 41 | 21% | 9 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morgan Charrière | 1 | 26 of 49 | 53% | 26 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Manolo Zecchini | 0 | 9 of 41 | 21% | 9 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Charrière | 26 of 49 | 53% | 16 of 37 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 25 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Manolo Zecchini | 9 of 41 | 21% | 5 of 30 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 7 | 9 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morgan Charrière | 26 of 49 | 53% | 16 of 37 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 25 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Manolo Zecchini | 9 of 41 | 21% | 5 of 30 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 7 | 9 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Morgan Charrière, citing his clinch work, cardio advantage, and ability to beat Manolo to the punch. He notes Manolo has more raw power but loops his punches. However, Angelo warns against betting at -260 on a UFC debut, calling it foolish.
Big Brady is confident in Charrière, citing his well-roundedness, toughness, and experience. He notes Zecchini's lower level of competition and potential cardio/durability concerns. He expects Charrière to win wherever the fight goes, likely by taking Zecchini down and finishing with ground and pound in the second round.
Cody picks Zecchini as an underdog, citing Charrière's inconsistency and low output. He notes Charrière is a veteran with 30 fights but tends to be tentative and conservative. Zecchini comes forward, is willing to engage, and has finishing ability. Cody worries about French judges favoring Charrière but thinks Zecchini can win by pressuring and outworking him.
Daniel Levi picks Morgan Charrière, highlighting his athleticism, calf kicks, and toughness. He recalls a fight where Charrière survived a rear triangle choke and then delivered vicious ground and pound. Levi notes that Charrière has close fights with lower-level opponents but believes the athleticism gap is massive here. He expects Charrière to win but is not interested at the steep price, saying there is no value.
Lucrative James sees Morgan Charrière as a huge favorite and believes the line is warranted. He thinks Charrière can win wherever the fight goes, with advantages in both striking and grappling. He expects a TKO finish rather than a decision, noting that Charrière's opponent is low-level and that Charrière can dominate on the ground. He acknowledges Charrière's past losses but attributes them to good wrestlers, which Zecchini is not.
I like Charrière here. The UFC is giving him a perfect layup opponent in Zecchini, who isn't anything special and has poor takedown defense. Charrière should be able to take the fight to the ground and control it. However, I have concerns about his cardio and he's more hype than talent in my opinion. I think he wins by decision, but I might throw him in a parlay.
Paul joins Cody on Zecchini, noting he doesn't step in front of Cody's dog picks. He mentions a prize picks prop of 44.5 significant strikes for Charrière, which he thinks is a pass because it would require a very low-output fight. Paul is not confident but follows the underdog trend.
The MMA Guru picks Morgan Charrière by TKO, arguing that despite Charrière's losses to regional fighters not in the UFC, he has a strength of schedule advantage and is physically strong with good takedown defense. He believes Charrière has a massive power advantage and will finish Zecchini, though he admits Charrière doesn't deserve to be in the UFC.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal because he has been an underdog in all three UFC fights and is 2-0, showing he is tough, can pressure, and wrestle. He believes Chepe will make the fight ugly and grind out Morgan Charrière. Angelo notes that Chepe is currently a +145 dog and expects the line to move, so he plans to bet on Chepe soon. He mentions Chepe's BJJ championship, kickboxing credentials, and collegiate wrestling as reasons for his confidence.
Big Brady picks Morgan Charrière to win by decision. He notes that Charrière is good everywhere, a really good striker and wrestler with vicious ground and pound. He acknowledges that Mariscal is tough and has the dog in him, but thinks Charrière has more ways to win and will be slightly better wherever the fight goes. He expects a back-and-forth war that goes to a split decision.
Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Chepe has fought tougher competition outside the UFC, including Gregor Gillespie and Bryce Mitchell. He highlights Chepe's constant work rate, durability, and takedown game. Cody thinks Charrière's low output and tendency to fight close decisions make him a bad favorite, and that Chepe's pressure will earn him the win.
Daniel Vreeland picks Chepe Mariscal, citing his toughness and Judo background. He notes Morgan Charrière is more athletic and powerful but has low output and close decisions against lesser competition. Vreeland points out Mariscal's win over Jack Jenkins was dominant, not a fluke injury, and his regional wins over UFC-level fighters like Yousef Zalal and Pat Sabatini. He expects a close fight but favors Mariscal's forward pressure and willingness to exchange.
Mariscal is more battle-tested with higher output and volume. Charrière is more hype than talent, with cardio issues and a low pace. Mariscal can mix in grappling and striking, and his durability has held up. He should outwork Charrière and win by decision, with a possible late stoppage.
Paul is confident in Chepe Mariscal at plus money. He criticizes Charrière's low-volume, counter-heavy style and notes his record is full of split decisions. Chepe is aggressive, has good durability, cardio from training at altitude, and mixes in takedowns. Paul believes Chepe's constant work rate will overwhelm Charrière, especially in the Apex where judges favor damage and volume.
The host expresses personal dislike for Charrière due to UFC signing him over Paul Hughes and Jordan Vucenic, but acknowledges Charrière is good. He notes Charrière's power, dangerous striking, great kicks, finishing instincts, and strong takedown defense. He predicts Charrière will smoke Mariscal by TKO, despite Mariscal's scrappy win over Trevor Peek.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!