Career Averages - Jean Matsumoto
Career Averages - Dan Argueta
Jean Matsumoto
Dan Argueta
Jean Matsumoto - Fight History
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matsumoto (-160); Almakhan (+135)
Round 1
Maybe the best fight on the whole UFC Baku card despite being stuck in the early prelims, bantamweight up-and-comers Almakhan and Nascimento go to work under the watchful eye of referee Rich Mitchell. They touch gloves and go to work In matching orthodox stances. Almakhan steps forward and lands a jab. Matsumoto feints with the rear leg a few times, but doesn’t pull the trigger. Matsumoto goes upstairs with a kick that comes up short. Almakhan steps into the pocket and throws a flurry of punches that come up short. Matsumoto flicks out another high kick. Almakhan bursts forward with another glancing volley of punches. Two minutes in, Almakhan catches Matsumoto with a hard left hand that is the cleanest shot of the fight by either man so far. Matsumoto connects with a hard calf kick, then another, a few moments later. Almakhan checks the next one, and nails Matsumoto with a counter that takes him off his feet. Matsumoto springs back up but is hurt. He shoots for a takedown, which Almakhan defends, but gets a few crucial seconds to recover. Matsumoto is still hurt and recovering, but with a minute to go in the round, he steps forward, lands a pair of hooks and clinches, then drives Almakhan to the fence and works for a takedown. Almakhan defends well, but Matsumoto picks up and slams him right before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almakhan
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almakhan
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Almakhan
Round 2
Matsumoto lands first with a right hook. They separate, reengage and Matsumoto connects again. Matsumoto changes levels for a double-leg takedown, and looks close to getting it, but Almakhan sprawls and keeps his feet. They disengage and go back to work at distance. Matsumoto goes to work with kicks to the lead left leg of Almakhan. Almakhan counters with his right cross. Matsumoto lands a two-piece upstairs. Almakhan sidesteps a Matsumoto advance and clocks him with a clean left. Matsumoto shakes it off, but it looks like it hurt. Matsumoto drives Almakhan to the fence, where he grabs a single-leg. Almakhan defends the takedown well and they disengage. Matsumoto touches with a body kick, then another, then a front kick to the midsection. Almakhan is largely wearing the kicks, looking to counter rather than evade. Matsumoto runs Almakhan to the fence but can’t get a takedown going. They collide in the pocket, with both men landing several punches. Matsumoto lands a spinning back elbow at the clapper, then a glancing flying knee before the horn. Close round.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Round 3
Matsumoto has a cut over the left eye that has been capably addressed by the cutman between rounds, and he’s on the front foot to kick off Round 3. There are a few tentative exchanges in the pocket, and Matsumoto waves his arms to the crowd. Ninety seconds into the round, Matsumoto is the aggressor, but neither man has truly put a stamp on the round. Referee Mitchell halts the action, as Matsumoto drags his extended fingers across the eye of Almakhan. With a warning and a few seconds to recover, they go back to work. Almakhan gives ground, but lands his left hook, then lands it again. Matsumoto comes up short with a left head kick, then throws a right high kick that glances off the guard of the Kazakhstani. Matsumoto shoots for a takedown near the fence and succeeds in dragging Almakhan to his seat at the base of the cage, but Almakhan bounces back up. They return to the center of the cage, but Matsumoto quickly walks Almakhan back to the cage. Almakhan punches his way off the fence. Almakhan throws a high kick that lands solidly on the forearm of Matsumoto. They meet in the center of the Octagon at the 10-second clapper, but neither man lands anything of consequence before the horn, and they walk off with arms raised.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto (29-28 Matsumoto)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto (29-28 Matsumoto)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Almakhan (29-28 Almakhan)
The Official Result
Jean Matsumoto def. Bekzat Almakhan via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AJ believes Almakhan has the boxing advantage over Matsumoto's Muay Thai, with better speed, power, and wrestling. He thinks Matsumoto's boxing is mediocre and that Almakhan can outbox him and mix in takedowns. AJ is surprised Almakhan is the underdog and thinks the line is wrong.
AJ likes Almakhan's boxing advantage, elusiveness, and power, while Matsumoto's Muay Thai is heavy-footed with limited punching power. He believes Almakhan's takedown threat and superior hands will outwork Matsumoto over three rounds, possibly earning a decision or late finish.
AJ DeVito likes Bekzat Almakhan as an underdog at +125, believing his hands are sharper and his wrestling is superior to Jean Matsumoto's Muay Thai style. He thinks Almakhan should be the favorite and expects a decision win, though he acknowledges knockout power. He includes Almakhan in a doggy style parlay.
AJ believes Almakhan has superior boxing, speed, and wrestling compared to Matsumoto, despite Matsumoto's slight edge in kicks. He is surprised Almakhan is a +140 underdog and thinks the odds could be flipped. He predicts a competitive three-round fight with Almakhan doing more over 15 minutes, likely winning by decision.
Angelo picks Matsumoto, believing his aggression will neutralize Almakhan's offense. He notes that Matsumoto is tough and durable, while Almakhan is dangerous but lacks takedown defense and work rate. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds because both fighters are tough.
Angelo thinks Jean Matsumoto wins but wasn't confident enough to bet the winner. He notes Matsumoto is insanely tough and not very dangerous, while Bekzat is dangerous but also tough. He expects a decision because Matsumoto doesn't have finishing ability and won't get finished.
Angelo picks Jean Matsumoto, believing his forward pressure and aggression will neutralize Bekzat's speed and mobility. He thinks Jean has been unlucky in recent decisions and should have won his last two fights. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds, expecting a close decision.
Big Brady picks Jean Matsumoto over Bekzat Almakhan. He notes that Almakhan has power but very low volume, questionable takedown defense, and poor ground game. Matsumoto is the higher-volume striker with superior wrestling, having taken down Rob Font and Fareed Baserat multiple times. Brady expects Matsumoto to win by decision, possibly by submission late if Almakhan makes mistakes.
Cody picks Matsumoto, agreeing with Paul. He highlights Matsumoto's durability and experience against better competition, and Almakhan's low volume. He expects Matsumoto to win a decision.
Daniel Levi picks Jean Matsumoto, citing his durability, forward pressure, and weaponized cardio. He notes that Almakhan is dangerous early but fades if he doesn't finish, as seen against Alexandre Tapora. Matsumoto's ability to survive Almakhan's power and then push a pace should break him late. Levi also highlights Matsumoto's competitive performance against Fared Basharat as a sign of his caliber.
Jacob picks Matsumoto, citing his work rate and ability to mix in takedowns. He thinks Almakhan's only path is a KO, but Matsumoto is too tough to finish. He also likes Matsumoto to get takedowns and suggests a prop on that.
Lucrative James picks Jean Matsumoto because he believes Matsumoto has superior cardio, wrestling, and durability. He notes that Almakhan is a good boxer but limited elsewhere, and tends to shut down when things go south. He expects Almakhan to start well, but Matsumoto's pace, leg kicks, and grappling will take over in rounds two and three, leading to a decision win.
Matsumoto has shown he can work back to his feet quickly after takedowns and has a striking advantage. He will wear Almakhan down with leg kicks and combinations, eventually pulling away. Almakhan relies on grappling but Matsumoto's defensive wrestling and ability to get up will neutralize that.
The host picks Jean Matsumoto to thwart the grappling approach of Bekzat Almakhan and out-strike him on the feet. He believes Matsumoto will land better damage and possibly get to some grappling of his own, ultimately winning on the scorecards.
Paul picks Matsumoto, citing his durability, volume, and takedown defense. He notes Almakhan's power but low volume, and believes Matsumoto will outwork him. He prefers the over 2.5 rounds and a split decision prop.
The Guru picks Matsumoto via decision, citing his durability, pressure, clinch work, and ability to survive early danger from Almakhan's power. He expects Almakhan to fade after a round and a half, allowing Matsumoto to take over with cumulative damage and conditioning. He notes Matsumoto's experience against a similar fighter in Farid Basharat.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 76 of 220 | 34% | 111 of 263 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 0 | 0 | 4:40 |
| Farid Basharat | 0 | 80 of 152 | 52% | 95 of 172 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 1 | 2:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 19 of 52 | 36% | 29 of 68 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Farid Basharat | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 24 of 41 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 | |
| 2 | Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 20 of 66 | 30% | 30 of 77 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
| Farid Basharat | 0 | 31 of 52 | 59% | 33 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:33 | |
| 3 | Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 37 of 102 | 36% | 52 of 118 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Farid Basharat | 0 | 29 of 64 | 45% | 38 of 75 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Matsumoto | 76 of 220 | 34% | 40 of 162 | 20 of 29 | 16 of 29 | 62 of 197 | 14 of 23 | 0 of 0 |
| Farid Basharat | 80 of 152 | 52% | 63 of 132 | 14 of 16 | 3 of 4 | 66 of 136 | 14 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean Matsumoto | 19 of 52 | 36% | 11 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 11 | 16 of 48 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Farid Basharat | 20 of 36 | 55% | 13 of 28 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 15 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jean Matsumoto | 20 of 66 | 30% | 8 of 44 | 8 of 11 | 4 of 11 | 14 of 56 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Farid Basharat | 31 of 52 | 59% | 25 of 46 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 46 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jean Matsumoto | 37 of 102 | 36% | 21 of 78 | 12 of 17 | 4 of 7 | 32 of 93 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Farid Basharat | 29 of 64 | 45% | 25 of 58 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 59 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Basharat (-280); Matsumoto (+230)
Round 1
It takes a lot to get ranked in the jam-packed bantamweight division, and the winner between Matsumoto (17-1, 3-1 UFC) and Basharat (14-0, 5-0 UFC) may still be another victory away from getting a number next to their name come Monday. They both still have time, clocking in at 26 and 28 years of age, respectively. Former professional fighter and current ref Herb Dean will have the age disadvantage in this affair, but he can still keep up just fine. The fighters touch gloves.
The commentary booth notes that when both Basharat brothers fight on the same card together, they always win. We will see if that trend continues. Matsumoto does not want that to happen, and he gets right in front of Basharat and slugs it out with him. When Basharat responds, Matsumoto fires off a jump knee that skims his intended target. Matsumoto slowly advances, and he takes a spinning back fist on the side of the dome. Matsumoto gathers himself and chucks a low kick, and he absorbs a step-in elbow that slashes open his cheek. Basharat continues pressuring his opponent to the wall, grabbing the fence to hold him there with both hands, and Dean finally sees it and tells him to stop. Matsumoto turns him about when Basharat is not illegally grabbing the cage wall, and they split apart. Matsumoto works his way forward, taking a jab and a low kick that forces a stance switch. He swarms Basharat with his fists, and Basharat slides to the side and bounces off the wall. They toss out left hooks, and Basharat connects with another elbow. He follows the strike with a bullying takedown attempt, pushing Matsumoto back but hitting the wire and springing around.
Basharat spins with a back elbow that partially connects, and he flashes out a jab that knocks Matsumoto’s head back each time. Matsumoto turns the tables and shoots in for a double, and he transitions to a single as Basharat hops around. Matsumoto elevates and dumps him, and Basharat gets right to his knees no worse for wear. Matsumoto grinds and works short punches on the inside until Basharat explodes back upright again in the clinch. Basharat drops down for a single, and an up-elbow from Matsumoto makes Basharat rethink his choice to hang in tight. Matsumoto walks Basharat down, swinging hard but largely whiffing, while Basharat cleanly counters him. Matsumoto whiffs on a spinning back kick and a takedown effort, and Basharat clips him with a right on the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Round 2
Matsumoto charges out of his corner but into the waiting arms of Basharat, who grabs him and turns him around in the clinch. The two jockey for position until Matsumoto splits off, and Basharat thanks him for this with a spin kick that grazes the side. Basharat clips Matsumoto with a short burst of punches, backing up the Brazilian but not taking full advantage of the damage. Matsumoto comes back after him, and Basharat intercepts him, drives a knee into his chest and chucks him carefree to the floor. Matsumoto scampers back up and is met with knees from Basharat, who further bloodies Matsumoto up with his strikes. Matsumoto knees him back, but the impact is substantially different. Basharat voluntarily drops to a knee so that he is a grounded fighter and will not be kneed in the face, so Matsumoto lifts him off the floor and slams him back down. Basharat stands, and Matsumoto takes his back while upright. Basharat grabs the fence again to nearly stop a takedown, but Dean’s admonishment forces him to release it.
Basharat gets pulled to the floor after clinging to the cage, and Matsumoto mat returns him and briefly takes control of his back. Basharat quickly, calmly reverses the position to wind up on top, where he slices through the guard but cannot keep Matsumoto down. Basharat dings him with a knee on the way out, and he throws out another as Matsumoto comes at him. Matsumoto lines up a one-two down the pipe, and he takes a punch while shooting. Basharat considers jumping guard for a guillotine, but he lets it go so he can return to a knee. Matsumoto works Basharat on the side of the head, taking his back again and even briefly hopping on it. He lets go and knees Basharat in the face and clubs him with a left, and is met with quick punches coming back at him. Matsumoto wildly flails to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Round 3
Matsumoto swarms his man as soon as the round kicks off, backing Basharat to the fence with big swings and catching him with some. Matsumoto’s sheer pressure result in a brief clinch, and Basharat separates and shoots for a double. Matsumoto stonewalls him and knees him in the stomach before giving him and elbow to think about, and his head kick is barely blocked in the nick of time. Matsumoto lands at the end of a left, and he knocks Basharat’s head around with a subsequent stream of punches. Basharat times a perfect takedown to sweep Matsumoto off his feet and deposit him gingerly to the floor. Matsumoto scoots his way to the fence and wall-walks to stand after a few seconds, and Basharat grabs the cage again as the rules mean nothing when all you have is Herb Dean yelling at you. Matsumoto ducks and dips when Basharat engages, as both men trade hands in flurries. Matsumoto goes for a double, and Basharat takes a knee to defend it.
The Brit stands once more, putting his back to the wall, and he spins out quickly to escape the tie-up. Basharat dings the increasingly bloody Matsumoto with a one-two, and he beats Matsumoto to the punch with faster strikes. Matsumoto is starting to swing with more labored, arcing strikes, but he manages to tag Basharat with one and stun him. Basharat settles down to use straight punches to keep Matsumoto at bay, and he shoots for a double and puts Matsumoto down. Matsumoto rolls through to partially reverse the position, and both men stand back up and start duking it out. Matsumoto keeps his foot on the gas, backing up Basharat with heavy punches as Basharat tries to parry and keep his head on a swivel. Matsumoto chains a takedown into his attack, dragging Basharat to the mat and considering a back take. Basharat stands up before that can happen, which leads Matsumoto to throwing caution to the wind. Basharat absorbs serious punishment and goes for a desperate takedown, dragging the Brazilian to the floor in the waning seconds of the fight. Basharat drops down an elbow and illegally knees Matsumoto in the head with Matsumoto’s knee down on the floor. Matsumoto stands back up and throws leather, ignoring the many fouls inflicted upon him this match, and the close tilt comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto (29-28 Matsumoto)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto (29-28 Matsumoto)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto (29-28 Basharat)
The Official Result
Farid Basharat def. Jean Matsumoto via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Angelo picks Farid Basharat, noting he is the better of the Basharat brothers and a well-rounded wrestler with solid striking. He thinks Farid will work on the outside, touch and go, and get takedowns. He warns that Vegas doesn't care about wrestling, so if Farid doesn't do anything with takedowns, it may not matter. He acknowledges Jean Matsumoto's potential but thinks his lack of defense is a problem.
Big Brady picks Farid Basharat, calling him the better prospect. He notes that Matsumoto has poor takedown defense (53%) and has been taken down multiple times in past fights. Basharat is a good wrestler and grappler, and Brady expects him to take the fight to the ground and win a decision.
Cody also picks Basharat, emphasizing his wrestling advantage and Matsumoto's tendency to be taken down. He notes both fighters are decision-oriented, making the over a strong play. Cody expects Basharat to control the fight with takedowns and win a clear decision.
Connor agrees with Zane, praising Basharat's ability to solve problems and his technical wrestling. He notes that Matsumoto is a tough, indefatigable bully, but Basharat has the tools to handle him. He thinks Basharat's wrestling and fight IQ will be the difference, though Matsumoto's durability could make it a tough fight.
Lucrative James picks Farid Basharat to win by decision. He expects Basharat to employ a grappling-heavy game plan, using his elite cardio and takedown volume to control the fight. James notes that Matsumoto has been taken down multiple times in past fights and that Basharat's wrestling will be the key to victory.
The host picks Basharat, believing his overall game and grappling will be the difference. He notes Basharat's reach and height advantage, and his ability to mix in takedowns after striking. He expects Basharat to snipe Matsumoto from distance, then use control time and top damage to win on the scorecards. He acknowledges Matsumoto's striking could make it competitive but thinks Basharat's grappling edge is decisive.
Paul picks Farid Basharat, citing his high ring IQ and ability to stick to game plans. He notes Matsumoto's poor takedown defense and defensive striking. Paul expects Basharat to mix takedowns with striking and win a decision, recommending a prop on Basharat by decision.
The host picks Farid Basharat over Jean Matsumoto. He notes Matsumoto's recent performances have been lackluster, while Basharat has size and physicality. He thinks Basharat's mix of striking and grappling will be too much, and he can bully Matsumoto against the cage and in scrambles.
Zane picks Basharat because of his impressive game planning and technical wrestling. He notes that Basharat has shown he can adapt to any opponent, using pressure boxing against Gutierrez, counter wrestling against Hugo, and wrestling against Lapelis. He thinks Basharat's technical wrestling will be too much for Matsumoto, who relies on scrambling and physicality.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Johns | 0 | 83 of 184 | 45% | 89 of 191 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 0 | 0 | 3:12 |
| Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 95 of 233 | 40% | 109 of 249 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miles Johns | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 23 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 16 of 49 | 32% | 20 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | Miles Johns | 0 | 34 of 67 | 50% | 35 of 68 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 35 of 84 | 41% | 39 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:27 | |
| 3 | Miles Johns | 0 | 27 of 75 | 36% | 31 of 80 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 44 of 100 | 44% | 50 of 106 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Johns | 83 of 184 | 45% | 70 of 170 | 12 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 78 of 175 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 1 |
| Jean Matsumoto | 95 of 233 | 40% | 49 of 160 | 27 of 38 | 19 of 35 | 87 of 224 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miles Johns | 22 of 42 | 52% | 17 of 37 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 37 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
| Jean Matsumoto | 16 of 49 | 32% | 8 of 29 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 11 | 15 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Miles Johns | 34 of 67 | 50% | 31 of 63 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 63 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jean Matsumoto | 35 of 84 | 41% | 15 of 55 | 14 of 19 | 6 of 10 | 33 of 82 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Miles Johns | 27 of 75 | 36% | 22 of 70 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 27 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jean Matsumoto | 44 of 100 | 44% | 26 of 76 | 8 of 10 | 10 of 14 | 39 of 94 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matsumoto (-310); Johns (+250)
Round 1
A pair of bantamweights trying to bounce back from tough decision losses will come to blows next, with one of the two falling to the first losing streak of their career barring something bizarre. Johns (15-3, 1 NC; 6-3, 1 NC UFC) has not been the poster boy for high activity since coming to the organization in 2019, as this will be his first trip to the cage this year. His foe Matsumoto (16-1, 2-1 UFC) came up short to Rob Font in a “separate the wheat from the chaff” pairing, although some scoring it gave it to the 25-year-old Brazilian. Referee Herb Dean takes charge of the cage, paying close attention as the fighters decide against touching gloves.
They stay a safe distance from one another, with Matsumoto watching out for Johns’ anticipated blitzes. Johns rushes out behind a few punches, but they are out of range. When Matsumoto commits to a low kick, Johns wings a right hand over the top. He follows it with a few more up the middle, and keeps Matsumoto on his back foot with his surges. Johns dips and wings an overhand right, and his guard is raised well in time to defend against the counter. “Chapo” beats the once-beaten athlete to the punch literally and figuratively, clubbing him with his fists before crashing the pocket to shoot for a double. Lifting Matsumoto up in the air, Johns gingerly deposits his man down much kinder than a previous bantamweight tonight. Matsumoto hangs on with his right arm draped around Johns’ neck for a guillotine choke, and Johns is suddenly trapped as his head turns red and veins bulge. Johns does not appear overly concerned, and he slides his neck out before long.
Matsumoto is able to fight back to his feet, and he immediately faces cracking right and left hands from the Marathon MMA fighter. Matsumoto evades and tries to counter, but Johns is faster and putting his punches together. Matsumoto lets loose a body kick that does land, and Johns strikes him back immediately. Matsumoto zings a left hand that grazes the top of his foe’s head, and Johns appears to have to gather himself before winging responses. Matsumoto leaps forward with a flying knee, and Johns grabs him midair and slings him to the mat like a back of groceries. Matsumoto jumps back up to his feet with the fence behind him, and he frames off with an elbow. They both let their hands go, hooking their arms at the crook of the elbow. Matsumoto turns the tables on the American by shooting for a single, and Johns pushes—and not grabs—the fence to rebound. Matsumoto lets him have it with one last elbow before the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Round 2
Matsumoto is the immediate aggressor to start the round, letting fly a head kick before Johns can shift into gear. Matsumoto chops the front leg of Johns and uses it to set punches up upstairs. Johns throws back, while avoiding the looping counters of his foe. Matsumoto works the body with both legs, trying to stay away from the counters that Johns commits to regularly. Nearly each time Matsumoto goes to a kick, Johns is ready with a right or left hook. This has decent effect, but he falls in love with his big power that he overswings with. Matsumoto strings together short but effective combinations, usually ending with a body shot.
Johns clubs his man behind the ear, sending Matsumoto staggering back, but Matsumoto is able to gain a full head of steam as he jumps at Johns with a flying knee. Once more, Johns times the jump to tackle Matsumoto to the floor. Matsumoto defends with a guillotine choke, using it to sit up and push Johns to the fence. Johns stands, and Matsumoto tags him with a few strikes before the reset. Matsumoto snaps out a left hand that gets Johns’ attention, and Johns bites down on his gumshield and hurls three hooks back at him. Johns tags his opponent with right hands, and a left hook scores just before Matsumoto goes for a body kick. Johns hurls his looping punches, snapping the head back when he lands, while Matsumoto is more than willing to stand in the pocket. A jump knee from Matsumoto drills Johns in the chest, and Johns grips hold of him and turns him to the wall. Matsumoto breaks free and tosses out a kick, and Johns responds with looping punches. Johns fakes a takedown shot that makes Matsumoto hit the deck, and he evades the follow-up strikes when the younger fighter gets up and chases after him.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Round 3
The fight could be up for grabs in this last round, and Matsumoto knows this well by going back to attacking Johns’ lead leg. A low kick from Matsumoto trips Johns up, and Johns explodes back to his feet and drills Matsumoto in the face with a right hand. Johns connects with a calf kick that forces a stance switch, and Matsumoto backs off and rolls with a huge overhand right. Matsumoto’s jab pierces through the guard, and Johns’ hands are up to defend the worst of the additional blows. Johns leans on his own jab to rifle off a few one-twos, using straight strikes instead of the booming hooks from downtown. Meanwhile, Matsumoto does not waver from his approach of breaking down his opponent with body work to set up head shots. Johns sees this approach coming and tags him with two hooks, and he catches a body kick and sets it down before something can come of it. Johns puts fists on Matsumoto, and Matsumoto drives him back with a crisp uppercut.
Matsumoto intercepts his foe with a slapping low kick, and “Chapo” is struggling to put all of his weight on it. Matsumoto dances back and slips in a few more low kicks and a body kick, and now Johns briefly changes stances after absorbing the damage. Matsumoto circles all the way around, a 360-degree revolution, to settle again and kick at Johns’ legs. Johns fires off huge punches that knock Matsumoto back, including a power right hand as Matsumoto kicks at him. Johns swings for the bleachers, and Matsumoto is tough as nails but is forced to deal with a takedown shot after taking blows to the head. Matsumoto briefly clings to a guillotine, and Johns steps over to the side to get out of it. Matsumoto works his way back up with Johns behind him, and Johns trips him back out. This cycle nearly continues when Johns jams knees to the back of the younger fighter’s thigh, and all Matsumoto can offer is a handful of no-look back elbows. Matsumoto puts his back to the fence as he stands, his cheek leaking from absorbed strikes, and he pushes off with 15 seconds to spare. Johns opens up with two punches that miss, and Matsumoto pursues his own double as time expires. It could go either way here.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johns (29-28 Johns)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto (29-28 Matsumoto)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto (29-28 Matsumoto)
The Official Result
Jean Matsumoto def. Miles Johns via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Angelo picks Miles Johns as a dog, noting he is a strong wrestler with heavy hands and explosive speed. He thinks Matsumoto gets hit a lot and cuts easily, and in Las Vegas damage matters. Angelo likes the plus money on Johns and may bet the spread (+3.5) instead of the moneyline.
Big Brady picks Jean Matsumoto, criticizing Miles Johns for not using his wrestling and having low volume. He believes Matsumoto's higher volume and ability to mix in takedowns will be key. Brady expects Matsumoto to win by decision, though he notes the fight is not exciting.
Connor picks Matsumoto, describing him as a brute who sits down on his punches and forces opponents to prove they can handle his power. He notes that Johns struggles when opponents stay in his face and keep up the pace, as seen against Felipe Lima. Connor believes Matsumoto's pressure, boxing, and ability to cut off the cage will overwhelm Johns, though he acknowledges Johns hits hard and could land a big shot.
The host is a big fan of Matsumoto and thinks he can replicate what Philippe Lima did to Miles Johns. He expects Matsumoto to use a Muay Thai heavy approach, mix in takedowns, and chip away at Johns' lead leg, eventually winning on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Jean Matsumoto, noting he arguably beat Rob Font and has multiple paths to victory. He criticizes Miles Johns as flat-footed and coiled up, which will allow Matsumoto to mix in grappling and striking. He predicts a decision win for Matsumoto, possibly 30-27.
Zane picks Matsumoto, highlighting his fast hands, good mobility, and technical boxing. He notes that Johns is a wrestle-boxer who needs to get takedowns to succeed, but Matsumoto's pressure and power will make that difficult. Zane compares Matsumoto to a bantamweight Danny Yay or Josh Emmett, a reliable gatekeeper who is always dangerous.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Font | 0 | 95 of 171 | 55% | 113 of 191 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 77 of 181 | 42% | 113 of 225 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 6:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rob Font | 0 | 21 of 34 | 61% | 27 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 32 of 49 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 | |
| 2 | Rob Font | 0 | 34 of 56 | 60% | 36 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 29 of 61 | 47% | 35 of 69 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 | |
| 3 | Rob Font | 0 | 40 of 81 | 49% | 50 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
| Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 41 of 101 | 40% | 46 of 107 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Font | 95 of 171 | 55% | 82 of 157 | 13 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 85 of 157 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Jean Matsumoto | 77 of 181 | 42% | 43 of 135 | 9 of 13 | 25 of 33 | 69 of 169 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rob Font | 21 of 34 | 61% | 20 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jean Matsumoto | 7 of 19 | 36% | 1 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rob Font | 34 of 56 | 60% | 28 of 50 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jean Matsumoto | 29 of 61 | 47% | 16 of 43 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 14 | 29 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rob Font | 40 of 81 | 49% | 34 of 74 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 69 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Jean Matsumoto | 41 of 101 | 40% | 26 of 80 | 3 of 6 | 12 of 15 | 37 of 93 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
His back no longer totally against the wall, Font (21-8, 11-7 UFC) ended a losing streak last year by outworking Kyler Phillips. It is up to the Boston native to play spoiler once more, as he battles undefeated youngster Matsumoto (16-0, 2-0 UFC) at 140 pounds. With Font initially expecting to fight Dominick Cruz, Matsumoto stepping in late forced the weight shift. The assignment goes to referee Keith Peterson, who steps back to let the fighters get to nonsense-free business. They touch gloves, and Font walks straight forward hurling serious leather with a questionable tactic. Matsumoto is caught off-guard, and he fights for a takedown to slow things down and get his bearings. Font turns him against the fencing, and he staves off a single a few times as his seat hits the canvas for less than a second. Font gets up and breaks free, and he promptly puts a one-two on the chin. Matsumoto stumbles and rebounds off the fencing, and he narrowly escapes a huge uppercut soaring his way. Font fearlessly marches his foe down, whose one-twos are clean as can be. Font’s aggression gets the better of him, as the Brazilian tags him with a right hand to surprise him. Matsumoto rushes forward in pursuit of a takedown, and Font allows this so he can fall to his back and implement an offensive guard. Font goes for a triangle choke and transitions to an omoplata shoulder lock, and when both of those do not materialize, he hunts for a kimura to sweep. Matsumoto breaks out of it and shifts from one side to the other, not settling down or establishing himself in a guard. Matsumoto keeps moving, and he moves to half guard so he can keep Font pinned to the mat without any chance of throwing up a submission. Font still explodes to his feet, and Matsumoto sees this coming and wraps up a guillotine choke. Font, on his side, keeps his neck safe from danger, and he pops his head out. Matsumoto moves to a partial side control for a moment to land strikes, only for Font to get back to his feet. Matsumoto slams him back down with emphasis, dropping down a pair of punches to punctuate the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Font
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Round 2
Font charges out of his corner, and Matsumoto learned his lesson about accepting the touch of gloves this time. Matsumoto slows him down with his own jab, but Font is still right in his face. Matsumoto slaps a kick off the side and one to the lead leg, and Font flashes his own jab. Matsumoto turns his hips into a hard low kick, and Font snaps his head back a few times with speedy fists. Matsumoto fires right back to open up a takedown, and he finds himself in a guillotine choke. The Brazilian easily climbs out of it, and Font works his way to one knee and then upright. Matsumoto awkwardly hangs on the back ankle, using the leverage to wrench the veteran back to the mat. Font thinks about grabbing the fence to stand, and ultimately works his way up to break free. Font walks his man down and completely no-sells a few low kicks so he can fire off a massive uppercut that buzzes past the youngster. Font goes to the body and head in a combination, while Matsumoto is active with his feet. Font digs a few more to the body, and he defends a head kick. Matsumoto mixes up his kicks high and low, not giving Font a pattern to follow. Font ignores these all so he can punch the youngster square in the face, with sharp one-twos that are fast and effective while keeping him out of counter danger. Matsumoto runs at him and trips him up by the ankle to set him down, and Font egregiously grabs the cage to keep himself upright. Peterson slaps his hand out of the fencing, and Matsumoto again wraps up Font’s back ankle to get a mat return. Instead of tripping Font up like that, he elects to lift Font up the air and drive him down into the mat. Font wraps up a kimura to sweep, and it allows him to get back to his feet. Font is right back to walking his man down, with Matsumoto on his bike trying to not get hit with the worst thrown at him. Font attacks the body and gets stung up top, but he is willing to fire and take damage. Matsumoto boots his man upside the head, and he absorbs a stern right hand at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Font
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Round 3
Scores could be all over the map in this one, and the final frame starts as aggressively as the first two. Font is a man on a mission, leading into combinations and not seeming to flinch any time the Brazilian slugs him back. Matsumoto keeps him honest with counters, and his leg kicks are beginning to add up. Font clubs his man in the side of the head and just misses with a head kick, and he keeps chasing forward. Matsumoto rips a mean left to the liver, and it is as if nothing happened as Font is in his grill slinging furious leather. The strikes from Font rip open a cut on his foe’s forehead, and he targets it with a knee when Matsumoto clinches him up. Matsumoto slips with a low kick and throws back a right hand up top, only to be met with a jab and a right. The blood quickly flows down the youngster’s face, transforming his visage into something out of a horror movie. Matsumoto tries to take the fight down with Font on him so doggedly, and Font stonewalls him and blasts him with an uppercut. Matsumoto chews up Font’s lead leg with kicks, and he doubles or triples up on them to open up takedowns. Font breaks out of a clinch to wrap his right hand around the guard of his foe, and he protects himself with a head kick and knees his man in the stomach. Font attacks with an elbow, a knee and several clinch strikes to put the 25-year-old through the wood chipper. Matsumoto fires back as well, but Font’s is putting volume and heavy pressure on him. Matsumoto sells out for a takedown, and Font pushes it aside and gets some space. They stand in the pocket throwing hands, and Font swings hard. Matsumoto goes wild with a flurry of punches, kicks, spinning strikes and anything else he can muster. One flying knee from Matsumoto is met with a huge right hand, and the two go ballistic with an onslaught of offense with shades of Max Holloway vs. Ricardo Lamas minus the pointing to the floor. Both men hit, get hit, hurt the other and get hurt as the torrid exchange only ends when the final horn blares. Judges will have their hands full with this one, but what a fight these two turned in.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Font (29-28 Font)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Font (29-28 Font)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Font (29-28 Matsumoto)
The Official Result
Rob Font def. Jean Matsumoto via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Angelo picks Jean Matsumoto, citing his youth, aggression, power, and multiple ways to win. He notes Rob Font is 37 and aging, and while Font's boxing is clean, he can't defend takedowns. He draws a parallel to Calvin Kattar being out-struck by a younger fighter. He is surprised the line moved toward Font.
Big Brady picks Jean Matsumoto, noting that Rob Font's takedown defense and ground game have looked awful recently, citing the Cory Sandhagen and Kyler Phillips fights. He believes Matsumoto, though not the best wrestler, is a good grappler who can take Font down and keep him there. He expects Matsumoto to win by decision, as Font has good submission defense but is content to stay on his back and lose minutes.
Connor picks Font, agreeing that Matsumoto is uncreative and predictable, while Font is a skilled boxer with good durability. He notes that Matsumoto fights in bursts and leaves gaps, which Font can exploit. Connor also points out that Font has a reach advantage and is a good puncher himself, as seen in the Yadong fight.
The host notes Matsumoto is a short-notice replacement but expects his damaging style and effective striking in the pocket to be too much for Font. He thinks Matsumoto's damage-based approach will win on the scorecards as long as Font doesn't get too far ahead in volume.
The Guru strongly picks Font as an underdog, calling it a no-brainer. He criticizes Matsumoto's undefeated record, noting close fights with Brad Katona and Dan Arreta where he was outgrappled. He highlights Font's experience against top competition, durability (never finished by strikes), and striking menace. He believes Matsumoto lacks KO power and won't submit or outgrapple Font.
Zane picks Font because Matsumoto is a limited fighter who fights in bursts and is predictable, while Font has a clear winning formula of jabbing and boxing. He notes that Font is durable, mentally tough, and has a reach advantage. Zane believes Matsumoto would need to hurt Font badly every round to win, which is unlikely given Font's durability.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 89 of 141 | 63% | 117 of 171 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 3:35 |
| Brad Katona | 0 | 89 of 201 | 44% | 109 of 223 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 30 of 44 | 68% | 39 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Brad Katona | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 24 of 57 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 2 | Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 37 of 61 | 60% | 46 of 70 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Brad Katona | 0 | 45 of 100 | 45% | 50 of 105 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 | |
| 3 | Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 22 of 36 | 61% | 32 of 48 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 |
| Brad Katona | 0 | 24 of 48 | 50% | 35 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Matsumoto | 89 of 141 | 63% | 68 of 118 | 12 of 13 | 9 of 10 | 73 of 124 | 15 of 15 | 1 of 2 |
| Brad Katona | 89 of 201 | 44% | 62 of 164 | 6 of 10 | 21 of 27 | 85 of 196 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean Matsumoto | 30 of 44 | 68% | 21 of 35 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 19 of 33 | 10 of 10 | 1 of 1 |
| Brad Katona | 20 of 53 | 37% | 14 of 42 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 8 | 19 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jean Matsumoto | 37 of 61 | 60% | 28 of 52 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 34 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Katona | 45 of 100 | 45% | 33 of 87 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 11 | 43 of 98 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jean Matsumoto | 22 of 36 | 61% | 19 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 20 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Brad Katona | 24 of 48 | 50% | 15 of 35 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 8 | 23 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matsumoto (-265), Katona (+215)
Round 1
Moving things along on the prelims, Katona (14-3, 4-3 UFC) has a new lease on life in his second stint with the organization. It will be up to him to try to defuse surging Brazilian Matsumoto (15-0, 1-0 UFC), who comes in with a full head of steam having throttled Dan Argueta a few months ago in his successful promotional debut. What could be a high-paced affair will be officiated by referee Mark Smith, who checks the bantamweights in as they opt not to share a glove touch. Katona wants to start out guns blazing, and he strings off several quick three-strike combinations to get going. Katona lunges in, lands two punches and a kick before darting away, and he gets out of the way of any notable counters. Matsumoto looks for a short left hook, but Katona slides to the side and dings him with an overhand right. Katona connects with two heavy punches and gets cracked with a right hand, and Matsumoto finds another right hand and staggers veteran of “The Ultimate Fighter.” Matsumoto’s right hand continues to connect when Katona throws low kicks, and he chases after the Canadian and clips him with a left hand. Katona ties him up and knees him once, and Matsumoto gets shoved to the wall. Katona grabs the fence to remain in place, receiving a warning, and he tries to change levels but is stonewalled. Katona strikes on the break, and Matsumoto walks him down fearlessly. Matsumoto flashes out two punches and a thumping leg kick, and he walks directly into a vicious standing elbow. Katona nails him with an overhand right, further doing some damage, and Matsumoto bites down on his mouthpiece and starts trading. They sit down on massive hooks, and Katona checks a kick that follows. Matsumoto slows things down on his own decision to clinch Katona, leaning all the way down to snatch the Canadian’s ankle. Katona defends with elbows to the side of the noggin, and he gets dragged to his knees. Matsumoto eats a few more elbows before standing, and he bangs the back of his head on Katona’s chin. Katona frowns, and the two fighters break apart with Matsumoto giving chase. Matsumoto strikes with a kick first and then a few punches, and he considers a takedown but is easily stuffed. Matsumoto tries to scoop Katona up, and the SBG Ireland fighter is well-schooled and stops the effort in its tracks. Katona stands Matsumoto up with a hacking elbow, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Round 2
The fighters pick up where they left off, blasting one another with power strikes. Neither man is willing to take a backward step while they sling it out, and Matsumoto appears to land the cleaner of the two even as he has a slight cut on the right eyebrow developing. Matsumoto takes one punch to throw two back, and Katona gets his bell rung even when he fires heavy punches. Katona’s chin holds up well from the power strikes of the Brazilian, and he gets backed to the fence where he knees up the middle before getting pushed to the wire. Blood leaks from the cut on Matsumoto’s eye, and Katona targets it with two more elbows before breaking off. They meet in the middle of the cage and throw bombs, with the kind of sheer power and intensity not often seen at 135 pounds. Katona checks a few kicks when they trade leather, and Matsumoto lands as often as he gets hit. They throw caution to the wind slinging wild shots, and Matsumoto blocks a high kick to knock Katona back. Katona recovers and punches his way into a takedown effort, and the Brazilian turns him about and shoves him to the fence. As they continue battering one another, Katona’s eyebrow gets ripped open from oncoming fire. Matsumoto further bloodies his opponent up as both men are showing damage above their right eye, and it has not slowed the momentum or ferocity one iota. Matsumoto dives after an opportunistic takedown, and Katona manages to stuff it and strike back with a few knees. Katona groans as one might have landed on the groin, and Matsumoto jumps guard with a guillotine choke. The wild round ends before Katona can do anything with it.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Round 3
It takes a matter of seconds for the bantamweights to stand and bang. Matsumoto absorbs a few kicks to split the guard with a right hand that sends Katona staggering back. Katona gathers a full head of steam, absorbs a few punches and kicks the side. Matsumoto sits down on a pounding body kick, and he walks Katona down and is met with a diving double. Matsumoto backs himself up against the wall to stay upright, and Katona transitions to a single that also comes up short. Matsumoto grabs the fence to stay on his feet, and his hand is slapped away but he otherwise gets away with it. Katona is wise to a guillotine choke setup and shifts to a body lock before the unbeaten fighter pushes him away. Katona races at him for a double, and Matsumoto advertises the price of admission by blasting a bloody Katona in the face with a number of punches. Katona slips away from a high kick and throws one to the body, and Matsumoto belts the legs with kicks and follows those kicks with straight, piston-like punches. Katona snaps the head back successfully during an exchange, but he eats shots right back as Matsumoto does not back down. Katona shoots, and Matsumoto bounces him off and lands cleanly until Katona pursues another level change. Matsumoto wrestles Katona to a knee as they trade short but clean strikes on the inside, and Matsumoto lifts up a knee and sells out for a single. Katona hits his seat for no more than a second before exploding up, and he succeeds in turning the corner to drag Matsumoto down. Matsumoto eats a few strikes before bursting up to his feet to attempt a final takedown, and the final bell rings to wrap up what is an easy “Fight of the Night” candidate. The scores could range anywhere from 3-0 Matsumoto to 2-1 Katona, so the judges will have their hands full.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto (30-27 Matsumoto)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Katona (29-28 Matsumoto)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Katona (29-28 Matsumoto)
The Official Result
Jean Matsumoto def. Brad Katona via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Jean Matsumoto but is hesitant, acknowledging that Brad Katona is a tough, durable fighter who could spoil the plans. He notes Matsumoto's well-rounded skills, BJJ black belt, and Muay Thai, but also points out that he was taken down nine times by Dan Argueta and nearly lost. He thinks Matsumoto's volume and willingness to let his hands go will be key, but he is not confident enough to bet the moneyline. He is considering a plus 3.5 round prop on Katona or the over 1.5 rounds.
Big Brady picks Jean Matsumoto by decision. He acknowledges Katona's high fight IQ and ability to win minutes, but believes Matsumoto will be the more active striker and do more damage. He compares it to Katona's loss to Garrett Armfield, where Katona was out-struck. He expects a competitive fight but Matsumoto's damage will win the decision.
Connor also picks Matsumoto, citing Katona's tendency to have a bad start and not dictate the early going. He notes that Matsumoto is a strong athlete who will come forward, but acknowledges that Katona is tough and often comes on strong late. Connor sees it as a mirror match and a split decision possibility, but leans Matsumoto due to his physical advantages.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript.
Katona is a high-IQ fighter, but Matsumoto has good enough defensive grappling to keep the fight upright and utilize his striking advantage to touch up Katona en route to a decision victory. The line is a bit wide, so there could be some Katona value on his underdog line, but Matsumoto is more dangerous in the striking realm.
The Guru is impressed by Matsumoto's debut win over Dan Argueta, noting he looked amazing and showed talent. He criticizes Brad Katona's wins as being over low-level opponents and points out Katona's short reach. He believes Matsumoto, an undefeated 25-year-old prospect with a full training camp, will get the win.
Zane picks Matsumoto mainly because he expects Katona to have a slow start, as Katona often lets physically imposing fighters dictate the early going. He notes that Matsumoto is a powerful athlete who will blitz with power, but acknowledges that Katona has a good jab and could jab Matsumoto up. Zane sees it as a real 50-50 toss-up and doesn't feel great about the pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 39 of 69 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 6:01 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 29 of 47 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 26 of 41 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:45 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 8 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 | |
| 2 | Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 13 of 28 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 3:16 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 21 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Matsumoto | 14 of 39 | 35% | 13 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 31 | 0 of 3 | 4 of 5 |
| Dan Argueta | 19 of 35 | 54% | 10 of 24 | 1 of 3 | 8 of 8 | 13 of 26 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean Matsumoto | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 4 |
| Dan Argueta | 6 of 12 | 50% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jean Matsumoto | 8 of 23 | 34% | 7 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Dan Argueta | 13 of 23 | 56% | 9 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matsumoto (-185), Argueta (+154)
Round 1
Bantamweights take the stage next as Argueta (9-1, 2 NC; 1-1, 2 NC UFC) tries to get back in the win column after two unusual events resulting in no contests. Against him will be the debuting undefeated Matsumoto (14-0, 0-0 UFC), who will likely welcome any grappling that Argueta brings to the table. Joining them in the Octagon will be referee Jason Herzog, who clocks them in as they decide against touching gloves. Argueta circles around on the outside while Matsumoto holds the center of the cage, and he swings his way in with a clubbing left hand so he can shoot in on the hips. Argueta manages to drag the unbeaten fighter down, and Matsumoto leans up against the wall and starts getting hammered with elbows and punches. Matsumoto looks to work his way up, and Argueta drags him down and continues smacking him around with his free right hand. Matsumoto gets back to his feet, and Argueta quickly trips him out down to a knee. When Matsumoto stands once more, Argueta hits a trip and lands right in full mount. Argueta opens up with elbows and punches, and Matsumoto uses every bit of his energy to explode and reverse the position to stand back up and grab Argueta from behind. Matsumoto looks to wrest Argueta down, and he even lifts the American up, but Argueta does not go down. On a third effort, Matsumoto succeeds in putting Argueta on his back, but only for a moment before Argueta gets back up and turns the tables to toss Matsumoto down. Matsumoto regathers himself and pursues a deep single, and Argueta defends with a kimura in an attempt to sweep. Matsumoto still lands on top, but Argueta turns him over and they get back to their feet. Argueta chases his man down, walking him from one side of the cage to the other before shooting in on a double. Matsumoto sprawls and puts the wall behind him, but Argueta still manages to cinch up Matsumoto’s leg to ground him. Matsumoto fights his way back up and takes a flush knee. Matsumoto gathers himself and lands a leg kick that flusters Argueta, and he rushes after Argueta and kicks him in the face to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Argueta
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Argueta
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Argueta
Round 2
Argueta rushes out of his corner to start off the second round, where he charges for a double and evades a knee by a whisker. Argueta succeeds in stripping Matsumoto’s base and putting him on the mat, but briefly. When Matsumoto climbs up, Argueta lands a mat return. Matsumoto bounces off the floor as if he had springs in his trunks, and Argueta stays tightly pressed against him as he continues to pursue his grappling. Matsumoto gets his hand slapped for grabbing the fence, and Argueta works his way around to take the back. Matsumoto turns around and splits his hips to preemptively prevent a takedown, only for Argueta to still take him down. Argueta’s landed takedown quantity may be high, but his ground control time is limited. Matsumoto counters an advancing Argueta with a right hand, disrupting the takedown as Argueta did not like taking that strike flush. Matsumoto slips and scores a low kick, and he cracks “The Determined” with a right hand that stands him up. Argueta gathers his thoughts and runs face-first into the hips to secure a takedown. Lacing Matsumoto’s legs beneath his own, Argueta keeps Matsumoto down until Matsumoto turns things around and somehow stands and lowers himself to get a single. Argueta stands up and Matsumoto slides out the back door, and he goes after a double but is stood up by the undefeated fighter. Argueta hits his knees for a different approach, and he lets go and stands up to throw hands. Landing a few and getting caught with a right hand, Argueta then decides to stop trading and go after another takedown. Matsumoto stops it in its tracks and pushes him back, and he checks a leg kick and dings Argueta with a right hand when Argueta lands after a missed flying knee.
Argueta dives after a single, and Matsumoto jumps guard with a guillotine choke with seconds to go. Argueta punches the hip as Matsumoto rolls to lock up the guillotine in mount. Argueta taps out and goes out, and he wakes up on top surprised as Herzog tends to him.
This is the first time that Argueta has been finished as a pro, and Matsumoto does it in a big way as he might have been down two rounds had they reached the third. In his successful promotional debut, Matsumoto’s record now reaches 15-0 with one more guillotine added on his ledger.
The Official Result
Jean Matsumoto def. Dan Argueta R2 4:59 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Angelo picks Dan Argueta despite the line movement making him a big underdog. He believes Argueta's pressure and wrestling will be too much for Jean Matsumoto, who is a Contender Series prospect. He notes that Matsumoto beat a wrestler on Contender Series but thinks Argueta is a different animal. He mentions that Argueta's pressure is bigger and better than anything Matsumoto has seen, and that Matsumoto will have to defend every takedown. Angelo is watching the line movement and may bet Argueta if the odds get better.
Big Brady picks Dan Argueta as a live dog, noting that Matsumoto has a tendency to play off his back too much and can be taken down. While Matsumoto is the better striker, Argueta has the wrestling to get the fight to the mat and potentially win two out of three rounds. Brady sees a grinding decision win for Argueta.
Cody also picks Matsumoto, noting Argueta's inconsistency and tendency to gas. He thinks Argueta will get takedowns early, but Matsumoto's submission threat off his back and striking advantage will allow him to take over late. Cody is wary of Argueta's power wrestling but believes Matsumoto's youth and skill will prevail.
Daniel Vreeland leans slightly toward Jean Matsumoto, citing his upside and striking combinations. He acknowledges Dan Argueta's wrestling and physicality will likely win the first round, but questions Argueta's cardio if he expends too much energy early. Vreeland believes if Matsumoto can survive the early grappling, he can pick Argueta apart on the feet in later rounds and edge out a decision.
Matsumoto is a bright prospect with great all-around skills, especially striking. He has solid defensive grappling and should be able to stuff takedowns or get back to his feet. His combination striking and leg kicks will damage Argueta, who relies on wrestling but lacks striking. Matsumoto wins by decision.
Paul picks Matsumoto but is hesitant. He likes Matsumoto's striking and BJJ, but notes Argueta is a strong wrestler early. Paul thinks if Argueta doesn't get the takedown early or gasses, Matsumoto will take over. He sees Matsumoto as a future contender but acknowledges Argueta's early danger.
The host calls Argueta awful, citing losses to Miles Johns and a no-contest with Ronnie Lawrence. He praises Matsumoto as an undefeated prospect with wicked striking, low kicks, strong hips, and good takedown defense. He notes Matsumoto's small size (5'5") may help stuff takedowns. He predicts a decision win where Matsumoto does more damage than Argueta's control time, but also mentions Matsumoto has good submissions from stuffing takedowns.
Dan Argueta - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Haddon | 0 | 54 of 140 | 38% | 65 of 151 | 4 of 24 | 16% | 1 | 0 | 4:23 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 140 of 280 | 50% | 148 of 288 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Haddon | 0 | 16 of 43 | 37% | 18 of 45 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 1 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 45 of 95 | 47% | 46 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 2 | Cody Haddon | 0 | 11 of 33 | 33% | 20 of 42 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 1:51 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 31 of 64 | 48% | 37 of 70 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 | |
| 3 | Cody Haddon | 0 | 27 of 64 | 42% | 27 of 64 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 64 of 121 | 52% | 65 of 122 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Haddon | 54 of 140 | 38% | 34 of 114 | 13 of 19 | 7 of 7 | 42 of 114 | 9 of 18 | 3 of 8 |
| Dan Argueta | 140 of 280 | 50% | 100 of 232 | 38 of 46 | 2 of 2 | 130 of 268 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Haddon | 16 of 43 | 37% | 10 of 35 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 36 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Argueta | 45 of 95 | 47% | 35 of 82 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 44 of 94 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cody Haddon | 11 of 33 | 33% | 8 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 25 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 5 |
| Dan Argueta | 31 of 64 | 48% | 20 of 52 | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 29 of 60 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Cody Haddon | 27 of 64 | 42% | 16 of 50 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 53 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 3 |
| Dan Argueta | 64 of 121 | 52% | 45 of 98 | 18 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 57 of 114 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Haddon (-185), Argueta (+154)
Round 1
Shifting gears to what was supposed to be a bantamweight contest, Argueta (9-2, 2 NC; 1-2, 2 NC UFC) failed to make weight and surrendered 20% of his purse to Australian debutant Haddon (7-1, 0-0 UFC). The 139-pound catchweight contest will be overseen by referee Jason Herzog, who clocks the fighters in as there is no plan for a glove tough. It takes the fighters mere seconds to get after it, with Argueta hoping to impose his will by getting right in Haddon’s face throwing hands. Haddon obliges the slugfest, and they swing for the fences early. As Argueta lands cleanly, he sets up a takedown perfectly, stripping Haddon’s legs out and putting him on his seat. Haddon slowly, calmly works his way up, and he engages further with the heavy American. Argueta tags his man on the temple with a right hand, and he crashes forward to change levels. Haddon turns to lean against the fencing to remain upright, and Argueta wrenches him down to his knees momentarily. Haddon climbs back upright using the wall to force his way up, and Argueta is doggedly determined to get him down. Haddon wants nothing to do with it, and he opens up with a long combination of punches as Argueta swings his way into level changes. Haddon clips Argueta with a left hand, forcing Argueta to shoot in deep. Haddon defends the attempt and snaps off several sharp jabs and leg kicks to back Argueta up against the fence. Argueta loads up on power strikes, and he stumbles Haddon with an overhand right. Haddon shakes it off and comes back with clubbing strikes that sting Argueta. Argueta lands cleanly and jumps guard with a guillotine choke, and Haddon squirms his way free and stands up. They resume their ill-advised strategy of standing and banging, and Haddon picks his shots carefully to rip a left to the body and a right to the head. Haddon rings Argueta’s bell, meeting Argueta’s attempts to take the fight down with crisp uppercuts. Haddon shoves Argueta against the wall to knee him with big blows, and Argueta works his way out but cannot dodge the jabs coming en masse. Argueta slips one and counters with a right hand over the top, and the two are simply hammering each other with no regard to conditioning. The frenetic-paced round ends with both men throwing hands.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Haddon
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Haddon
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Haddon
Round 2
It is right back to the races for these fighters, who continue to fight as if the match is five minutes long. Haddon is the more accurate of the two but by no means avoiding power strikes hurled back his direction. A glancing right hand from Argueta opens a cut on the hairline of the Australian, and he pays it no mind as he strikes his way into a takedown. “The Determined” is filled with determination, muscling his way back to his feet, turning Haddon around and depositing him on his back. Argueta starts to get some ground-and-pound going while Haddon looks for a kimura sweep or other kind of escape. As Haddon looks to work his way up, Argueta stays on him, never allowing the newcomer a moment to breathe or reset. Haddon stands, and Argueta lifts him up from behind to drop him to his hands. Argueta lifts Haddon up with a mighty single and throws him to the mat, but Haddon is a man possessed and he wants to keep trading. Exploding back to striking range, Haddon pays his man back with a series of punches. Argueta dives low for a takedown, and Haddon blasts him in the face with a knee that is about as clean as it can be. Argueta somehow tanks it, and he goes after a takedown that transitions into a low-percentage front choke. Haddon shucks out of it and clubs Argueta with combinations. Argueta aims several to the body, and Haddon gives him a knee back to the chest to think about. A solid leg kick from Argueta sweeps the leg, and Haddon frowns and lines up a right hand to stun Argueta. With Argueta backed against the wall, Haddon comes at him with fists and a knee before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Haddon
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Haddon
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Haddon
Round 3
When the round begins, Argueta slugs Haddon in the face with a huge left hand. Haddon does not even blink, instead releasing his own heavy right hand that slams into the side of Argueta’s melon. The two batter one another with power blows, and Haddon flicks out two jabs, uses his head movement to dodge the counters and stonewalls a takedown. Haddon spins with a back fist that bounces off the raised guard, and Argueta says “two can play that game” and answers with a spinning back elbow that partially connects. Argueta lumbers forward, flailing big strikes, and Haddon picks him off and tags him with accurate blows. Haddon measures an elbow up top, fighting off a tie-up from the New Mexican so he can rip combinations. Argueta stumbles to the side, but he keeps throwing heat. Haddon lets Argueta overswing so he can ding him with single counters, until Argueta boots him in the front leg and drops him. Argueta pulls back right before unleashing what would have been an illegal soccer kick, and Haddon stands back up. Argueta uses Haddon’s forward momentum against him to land power strikes, but Haddon is right in his face popping him again and again. Argueta’s blows become more labored and telegraphed as he fatigues, and Haddon is still on point with strikes but unable to stop Argueta from taking him down. Haddon crawls his way back up, scoring two quick punches before Argueta rushes after him to re-engage a clinch. Argueta drops low for a takedown, fails and transitions into another attempt, and then one more. Haddon remains upright for all of them, pushing Argueta to the center of the cage and breaking. Haddon jabs and lumps Argueta up with straight strikes, not exposing himself with too much power to throw himself off-balance. The Aussie turns the tables on the charging Argueta, putting Argueta on his back after an attempt. Argueta scrambles to his feet and pursues a few more that come up short before the final bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Haddon (30-27 Haddon)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Haddon (30-27 Haddon)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Haddon (30-27 Haddon)
The Official Result
Cody Haddon def. Dan Argueta via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo is torn on this fight, initially leaning toward Daniel Argueta due to his wrestling and game plan, but he worries that Cody Haddon's scramble skills could frustrate Argueta. He ultimately leans toward Haddon as the prospect, but admits he is not confident and will not bet on this fight. He notes that Argueta is a good dog but doesn't trust him to win.
Big Brady picks Daniel Argueta as an underdog at +155, expecting a close fight that goes to decision. He acknowledges Cody Haddon is a good fighter with crisp striking and a BJJ black belt, but sees Argueta's path to victory through wrestling, as Argueta lands nearly five takedowns per 15 minutes. He notes Haddon's long flight from Australia and Argueta's superior competition. He worries about corrupt judges favoring control over damage, so he prefers the plus money.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Haddon's only UFC win was against a poor athlete, and now he faces a much better athlete in Argueta. He points out that Argueta is a brute force fighter who crashes into opponents, and Haddon may struggle with the pressure. Connor thinks the winner will be the one who comes forward.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.
Daniel is impressed by Haddon's Contender Series performance and his well-rounded skills. He notes Argueta's strength in grappling but poor standup and cardio. Daniel thinks Haddon's pace and versatility will be the difference, but he is not confident enough to lay the price due to Haddon's UFC debut and potential jet lag.
Argueta is a wrestler who chains his takedown attempts together and has a great gas tank for 15 minutes. Haddon has not faced a grapple-heavy approach like Argueta's. If Argueta can avoid Haddon's striking and slick BJJ, he should keep Haddon on the defensive and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Cody Haddon, praising his talent and potential. He references Haddon's close fight with Steve Erceg, noting his scrambling ability, and his impressive win over Billy Brand on the Contender Series. He criticizes Daniel Argueta for lacking finishing potential and stalling against the cage, and notes that Haddon has great scrambles to counter Argueta's grappling.
Zane picks Argueta for his raw physicality, comparing him to a wrecking ball. He notes that Argueta overwhelms opponents with athleticism, as seen against Ronnie Lawrence and Nikki Ure. Zane thinks Haddon's lack of athleticism and slow foot speed will be a problem, especially if he gets pressured. He believes Argueta's constant aggression will be too much.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 39 of 69 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 6:01 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 29 of 47 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 26 of 41 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:45 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 8 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 | |
| 2 | Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 13 of 28 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 3:16 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 21 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Matsumoto | 14 of 39 | 35% | 13 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 31 | 0 of 3 | 4 of 5 |
| Dan Argueta | 19 of 35 | 54% | 10 of 24 | 1 of 3 | 8 of 8 | 13 of 26 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean Matsumoto | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 4 |
| Dan Argueta | 6 of 12 | 50% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jean Matsumoto | 8 of 23 | 34% | 7 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Dan Argueta | 13 of 23 | 56% | 9 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matsumoto (-185), Argueta (+154)
Round 1
Bantamweights take the stage next as Argueta (9-1, 2 NC; 1-1, 2 NC UFC) tries to get back in the win column after two unusual events resulting in no contests. Against him will be the debuting undefeated Matsumoto (14-0, 0-0 UFC), who will likely welcome any grappling that Argueta brings to the table. Joining them in the Octagon will be referee Jason Herzog, who clocks them in as they decide against touching gloves. Argueta circles around on the outside while Matsumoto holds the center of the cage, and he swings his way in with a clubbing left hand so he can shoot in on the hips. Argueta manages to drag the unbeaten fighter down, and Matsumoto leans up against the wall and starts getting hammered with elbows and punches. Matsumoto looks to work his way up, and Argueta drags him down and continues smacking him around with his free right hand. Matsumoto gets back to his feet, and Argueta quickly trips him out down to a knee. When Matsumoto stands once more, Argueta hits a trip and lands right in full mount. Argueta opens up with elbows and punches, and Matsumoto uses every bit of his energy to explode and reverse the position to stand back up and grab Argueta from behind. Matsumoto looks to wrest Argueta down, and he even lifts the American up, but Argueta does not go down. On a third effort, Matsumoto succeeds in putting Argueta on his back, but only for a moment before Argueta gets back up and turns the tables to toss Matsumoto down. Matsumoto regathers himself and pursues a deep single, and Argueta defends with a kimura in an attempt to sweep. Matsumoto still lands on top, but Argueta turns him over and they get back to their feet. Argueta chases his man down, walking him from one side of the cage to the other before shooting in on a double. Matsumoto sprawls and puts the wall behind him, but Argueta still manages to cinch up Matsumoto’s leg to ground him. Matsumoto fights his way back up and takes a flush knee. Matsumoto gathers himself and lands a leg kick that flusters Argueta, and he rushes after Argueta and kicks him in the face to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Argueta
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Argueta
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Argueta
Round 2
Argueta rushes out of his corner to start off the second round, where he charges for a double and evades a knee by a whisker. Argueta succeeds in stripping Matsumoto’s base and putting him on the mat, but briefly. When Matsumoto climbs up, Argueta lands a mat return. Matsumoto bounces off the floor as if he had springs in his trunks, and Argueta stays tightly pressed against him as he continues to pursue his grappling. Matsumoto gets his hand slapped for grabbing the fence, and Argueta works his way around to take the back. Matsumoto turns around and splits his hips to preemptively prevent a takedown, only for Argueta to still take him down. Argueta’s landed takedown quantity may be high, but his ground control time is limited. Matsumoto counters an advancing Argueta with a right hand, disrupting the takedown as Argueta did not like taking that strike flush. Matsumoto slips and scores a low kick, and he cracks “The Determined” with a right hand that stands him up. Argueta gathers his thoughts and runs face-first into the hips to secure a takedown. Lacing Matsumoto’s legs beneath his own, Argueta keeps Matsumoto down until Matsumoto turns things around and somehow stands and lowers himself to get a single. Argueta stands up and Matsumoto slides out the back door, and he goes after a double but is stood up by the undefeated fighter. Argueta hits his knees for a different approach, and he lets go and stands up to throw hands. Landing a few and getting caught with a right hand, Argueta then decides to stop trading and go after another takedown. Matsumoto stops it in its tracks and pushes him back, and he checks a leg kick and dings Argueta with a right hand when Argueta lands after a missed flying knee.
Argueta dives after a single, and Matsumoto jumps guard with a guillotine choke with seconds to go. Argueta punches the hip as Matsumoto rolls to lock up the guillotine in mount. Argueta taps out and goes out, and he wakes up on top surprised as Herzog tends to him.
This is the first time that Argueta has been finished as a pro, and Matsumoto does it in a big way as he might have been down two rounds had they reached the third. In his successful promotional debut, Matsumoto’s record now reaches 15-0 with one more guillotine added on his ledger.
The Official Result
Jean Matsumoto def. Dan Argueta R2 4:59 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Angelo picks Dan Argueta despite the line movement making him a big underdog. He believes Argueta's pressure and wrestling will be too much for Jean Matsumoto, who is a Contender Series prospect. He notes that Matsumoto beat a wrestler on Contender Series but thinks Argueta is a different animal. He mentions that Argueta's pressure is bigger and better than anything Matsumoto has seen, and that Matsumoto will have to defend every takedown. Angelo is watching the line movement and may bet Argueta if the odds get better.
Big Brady picks Dan Argueta as a live dog, noting that Matsumoto has a tendency to play off his back too much and can be taken down. While Matsumoto is the better striker, Argueta has the wrestling to get the fight to the mat and potentially win two out of three rounds. Brady sees a grinding decision win for Argueta.
Cody also picks Matsumoto, noting Argueta's inconsistency and tendency to gas. He thinks Argueta will get takedowns early, but Matsumoto's submission threat off his back and striking advantage will allow him to take over late. Cody is wary of Argueta's power wrestling but believes Matsumoto's youth and skill will prevail.
Daniel Vreeland leans slightly toward Jean Matsumoto, citing his upside and striking combinations. He acknowledges Dan Argueta's wrestling and physicality will likely win the first round, but questions Argueta's cardio if he expends too much energy early. Vreeland believes if Matsumoto can survive the early grappling, he can pick Argueta apart on the feet in later rounds and edge out a decision.
Matsumoto is a bright prospect with great all-around skills, especially striking. He has solid defensive grappling and should be able to stuff takedowns or get back to his feet. His combination striking and leg kicks will damage Argueta, who relies on wrestling but lacks striking. Matsumoto wins by decision.
Paul picks Matsumoto but is hesitant. He likes Matsumoto's striking and BJJ, but notes Argueta is a strong wrestler early. Paul thinks if Argueta doesn't get the takedown early or gasses, Matsumoto will take over. He sees Matsumoto as a future contender but acknowledges Argueta's early danger.
The host calls Argueta awful, citing losses to Miles Johns and a no-contest with Ronnie Lawrence. He praises Matsumoto as an undefeated prospect with wicked striking, low kicks, strong hips, and good takedown defense. He notes Matsumoto's small size (5'5") may help stuff takedowns. He predicts a decision win where Matsumoto does more damage than Argueta's control time, but also mentions Matsumoto has good submissions from stuffing takedowns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 33 of 85 | 38% | 38 of 95 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Miles Johns | 0 | 43 of 92 | 46% | 52 of 104 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Argueta | 0 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 8 of 21 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 2:14 |
| Miles Johns | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:49 | |
| 2 | Dan Argueta | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 16 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Miles Johns | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 23 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 | |
| 3 | Dan Argueta | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 14 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Miles Johns | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 21 of 43 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Argueta | 33 of 85 | 38% | 20 of 67 | 8 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 22 of 70 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 7 |
| Miles Johns | 43 of 92 | 46% | 32 of 77 | 5 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 40 of 84 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Argueta | 3 of 14 | 21% | 1 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Miles Johns | 8 of 21 | 38% | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | |
| 2 | Dan Argueta | 16 of 32 | 50% | 10 of 24 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 24 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Miles Johns | 14 of 28 | 50% | 10 of 22 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Dan Argueta | 14 of 39 | 35% | 9 of 33 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Miles Johns | 21 of 43 | 48% | 14 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Angelo trusts Argueta's wrestling-first game plan and believes Johns' takedown defense is inflated because he hasn't faced a dedicated wrestler. He expects Argueta to stay on the hips and outwork Johns. Pretty confident pick.
Big Brady picks Miles Johns as an underdog, calling the fight close and likely to go to decision. He likes Johns' defensive wrestling and striking defense, and notes Johns has power and out-lands opponents despite low volume. He thinks Argueta may have wrestling success later as Johns slows down, but believes Johns can win at least two rounds. He prefers the plus money.
Cody picks Dan Argueta, impressed by his toughness and grappling. He notes Argueta's strong wrestling and submission threats, while Johns has cardio issues and slows down. He believes Argueta's pressure and pace will overwhelm Johns in later rounds.
Daniel picks Argueta but without strong conviction. He thinks Johns has been a letdown in the UFC, with low output and a tendency to break under pressure. He questions whether Argueta can push the pace needed to break Johns, but believes Argueta's hunger and takedown volume might be enough. He acknowledges the line is close to accurate and is not betting it.
Lucrative James likes Miles Johns at the line, calling it an overcorrection. He thinks Johns can defend takedowns early and has power on the feet. He notes Johns is a good wrestler himself and could get takedowns. He sees the fight as close, possibly a pick'em, but favors Johns.
The host picks Argueta at minus 170, calling it a gift line. He praises Argueta's wrestling, cardio, and pressure, expecting him to wear on Johns and pull away late. He notes Johns' wins are over lower-level opponents and that Argueta is superior in grappling and pace. He predicts a decision win for Argueta after a close first round.
Paul picks Argueta but prefers live betting. He worries about Argueta's low volume and Johns's 92% takedown defense. He thinks Johns may win early rounds but Argueta's cardio advantage could take over. He is interested in Argueta by submission or round 3 prop.
The MMA Guru picks Dan Argueta, criticizing Miles Johns' weak strength of schedule, noting his opponents include Kevin Natividad and Anderson dos Santos. He praises Argueta's training at Jackson Wink MMA, his judo background, and his toughness in taking Damon Jackson to a close decision. He believes Argueta is a gradually improving fighter with good hips and strength, while Johns has plateaued. He expects Argueta to win via grappling and pressure.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 12 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 2:08 |
| Ronnie Lawrence | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Argueta | 0 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 12 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 2:08 |
| Ronnie Lawrence | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Argueta | 4 of 4 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Ronnie Lawrence | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Argueta | 4 of 4 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Ronnie Lawrence | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Dan Argueta as a low confidence underdog. He notes that Ronnie Lawrence is a great offensive wrestler but struggled when pressured in his last fight. Argueta's forward pressure and wrestling could cause similar issues. Angelo likes the plus 135 moneyline but hasn't bet yet, saying he's keeping an eye on it.
Big Brady picks Ronnie Lawrence to win by decision. He is high on Lawrence, praising his relentless wrestling, cardio, and underrated striking. Lawrence averages 7 takedowns per 15 minutes with 77% accuracy. Argueta is also a wrestler, but Brady thinks Lawrence's relentless pace will be too much. He notes that Lawrence can attempt 20+ takedowns if needed. He disagrees with the initial -550 opener for Lawrence, saying -155 is about right, but still expects Lawrence to win a decision.
Cody picks Lawrence, noting that despite his poor takedown performance against Said Khamzatov, he got up nine times and learned from the experience. He thinks Lawrence is a talented striker with good footwork and speed, and that Argueta's takedown defense is not great and his volume is low. Cody believes Lawrence can stuff takedowns and win on the feet.
Connor picks Argueta, arguing that Lawrence is not a strong athlete and will struggle with Argueta's strength and wrestling. He notes that Argueta is a featherweight cutting down and will be able to spend time on top. Connor believes Lawrence will give up tie-ups and Argueta will end up in dominant positions. He expects Argueta to grind out a decision or get a late finish.
Daniel Levi picks Ronnie Lawrence, citing his significant striking edge and power. He notes Argueta's poor striking defense and cardio issues. He acknowledges Lawrence's bad loss to Saydokub but attributes it to a broken nose and tough opponent. He got Lawrence at -150 and thinks he wins at a decent clip, though weight cut concerns exist.
Argueta has superior technical wrestling compared to Lawrence, who is more of a pace-based wrestler. Lawrence's takedown-heavy style may not work against a better wrestler like Argueta. Argueta can get top position and grind out a decision. The plus 155 underdog line offers value.
Paul is tempted by Argueta at plus money, noting that Lawrence has been rocked before and that Argueta is a strong grappler with low center of gravity. He thinks this fight is best approached live, as the first wrestling exchanges will reveal a lot. He picks Argueta for the show but is not confident pre-fight.
The MMA Guru picks Ronnie Lawrence, stating a massive talent difference. He argues Lawrence should not have been cut from the UFC after a close loss to Said Nurmagomedov, and that Dan Argueta lacks the power to trouble Lawrence. He praises Lawrence's transitions and scrambling, expecting him to be too much for Argueta's simple style.
Zane picks Lawrence, describing Argueta as slow and cumbersome, loading up on single shots. He believes Lawrence's tricky karate-style striking and scrambling will befuddle Argueta. Zane notes that Lawrence's first layer of offense is more capable of confusing Argueta than vice versa. He expects Lawrence to land more impressive shots and win a competitive fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 47 of 85 | 55% | 93 of 144 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 | 1 | 10:14 |
| Nick Aguirre | 0 | 14 of 44 | 31% | 15 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Argueta | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 15 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 3:24 |
| Nick Aguirre | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:15 | |
| 2 | Dan Argueta | 0 | 25 of 37 | 67% | 38 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:22 |
| Nick Aguirre | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Dan Argueta | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 40 of 66 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:28 |
| Nick Aguirre | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 5 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Argueta | 47 of 85 | 55% | 29 of 65 | 9 of 10 | 9 of 10 | 27 of 55 | 6 of 9 | 14 of 21 |
| Nick Aguirre | 14 of 44 | 31% | 14 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 13 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Argueta | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 |
| Nick Aguirre | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dan Argueta | 25 of 37 | 67% | 12 of 24 | 7 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 18 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 7 |
| Nick Aguirre | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dan Argueta | 17 of 40 | 42% | 13 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 24 | 4 of 7 | 6 of 9 |
| Nick Aguirre | 4 of 22 | 18% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Argueta, believing his wrestling will be too much for the short-notice debutant. He notes Aguirre's opponents had poor records and he hasn't faced a wrestler like Argueta. He thinks Argueta's takedowns and pressure will lead to a finish. He has a small bet on the under 2.5 rounds.
Big Brady picks Isaac Dulgarian (incorrectly named as 'Isaac dogarion' in transcript) as an upset, liking his wrestling, submission game, and vicious ground and pound. He notes that Dulgarian has faced weak competition and hasn't seen the second round, but believes his skills will translate. He points out that Argueta has been taken down easily by wrestlers like Damon Jackson and Diego Silva, and that Dulgarian should be able to control him on the mat. He predicts a first-round finish for Dulgarian.
Cody leans towards Aguirre as a live underdog, citing Argueta's poor get-up game and Aguirre's BJJ. He thinks the line is off and Aguirre could win if he gets takedowns. However, he admits uncertainty and is not betting heavily.
Connor picks Argueta as well, citing the short notice replacement and Argueta's experience. He notes that Argueta is a good pocket puncher but has a monofocus, and that the fight could be ugly if Aguirre can't get takedowns. Connor seems less confident than Zane, but still leans Argueta.
Jacob agrees Argueta should win, calling it a good matchup. He notes Aguirre is a slightly better striker but Argueta's wrestling is superior. He thinks Argueta's game plan remains the same and he should control the fight. He likes the under 2.5 value.
Paul picks Argueta but is not confident due to the steep price. He notes Argueta's strength and wrestling, but acknowledges Aguirre is unproven. He is not betting this fight.
Zane picks Argueta based on his extra experience, noting that Argueta is a good pocket puncher with solid power and has shown some wrestling ability. However, he is concerned that Argueta is monofocused on punching and untested, and that Aguirre could take him down and submit him. Zane also mentions that Argueta lost to Damon Jackson by getting his back taken, which is a worry against Aguirre's grappling.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Jackson | 0 | 32 of 53 | 60% | 47 of 71 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 10:25 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 27 of 59 | 45% | 103 of 141 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 2:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damon Jackson | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 4:14 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 33 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:42 | |
| 2 | Damon Jackson | 0 | 9 of 10 | 90% | 14 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:58 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 27 of 37 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Damon Jackson | 0 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 32 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:13 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 43 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Jackson | 32 of 53 | 60% | 23 of 44 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 40 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 8 |
| Dan Argueta | 27 of 59 | 45% | 24 of 56 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 42 | 10 of 15 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damon Jackson | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Damon Jackson | 9 of 10 | 90% | 7 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 5 |
| Dan Argueta | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Damon Jackson | 23 of 43 | 53% | 16 of 36 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
| Dan Argueta | 22 of 48 | 45% | 19 of 45 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 38 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo describes Damon Jackson as a good grappler but with poor takedown defense (35%). Dan Argueta is a short stocky grappler who immediately goes for takedowns and ground-and-pound. Angelo likes Argueta's game plan of coming forward and shooting, which will force Jackson to defend takedowns instead of initiating his own. He notes the short turnaround but still picks Argueta and plans to bet on him via moneyline and a +3.5 round buy.
Big Brady picks Damon Jackson to win by third-round submission. He thinks Jackson has advantages everywhere: striking, grappling, wrestling, cardio, and experience. He notes that Argueta is a good wrestler but one-dimensional and is taking this fight on short notice up a weight class. He expects Jackson to break Argueta over time and finish him late. He sees Jackson as one of the safest picks on the card.
Cody picks Jackson, noting his grappling and submission threat. He thinks Argueta's wrestling will be neutralized and Jackson's size and experience will prevail. He expects Jackson to win, possibly by submission.
Daniel Levi picks Damon Jackson, citing his UFC experience, size, and recent dominant performance. He notes that Argueta is moving up in weight and took the fight on short notice after a five-round war. He expects Jackson to win inside the distance, possibly by submission, but refuses to bet the -600 moneyline. He recommends the inside distance prop at -145.
Paul picks Jackson, citing his experience, size, and recent dominant performance. He notes Argueta's short notice, weight class move, and recent five-round war. He thinks Jackson's grappling and striking are superior and expects a finish or dominant decision.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Dan Argueta despite the line movement making him a big underdog. He believes Argueta's pressure and wrestling will be too much for Jean Matsumoto, who is a Contender Series prospect. He notes that Matsumoto beat a wrestler on Contender Series but thinks Argueta is a different animal. He mentions that Argueta's pressure is bigger and better than anything Matsumoto has seen, and that Matsumoto will have to defend every takedown. Angelo is watching the line movement and may bet Argueta if the odds get better.
Big Brady picks Dan Argueta as a live dog, noting that Matsumoto has a tendency to play off his back too much and can be taken down. While Matsumoto is the better striker, Argueta has the wrestling to get the fight to the mat and potentially win two out of three rounds. Brady sees a grinding decision win for Argueta.
Cody also picks Matsumoto, noting Argueta's inconsistency and tendency to gas. He thinks Argueta will get takedowns early, but Matsumoto's submission threat off his back and striking advantage will allow him to take over late. Cody is wary of Argueta's power wrestling but believes Matsumoto's youth and skill will prevail.
Daniel Vreeland leans slightly toward Jean Matsumoto, citing his upside and striking combinations. He acknowledges Dan Argueta's wrestling and physicality will likely win the first round, but questions Argueta's cardio if he expends too much energy early. Vreeland believes if Matsumoto can survive the early grappling, he can pick Argueta apart on the feet in later rounds and edge out a decision.
Matsumoto is a bright prospect with great all-around skills, especially striking. He has solid defensive grappling and should be able to stuff takedowns or get back to his feet. His combination striking and leg kicks will damage Argueta, who relies on wrestling but lacks striking. Matsumoto wins by decision.
Paul picks Matsumoto but is hesitant. He likes Matsumoto's striking and BJJ, but notes Argueta is a strong wrestler early. Paul thinks if Argueta doesn't get the takedown early or gasses, Matsumoto will take over. He sees Matsumoto as a future contender but acknowledges Argueta's early danger.
The host calls Argueta awful, citing losses to Miles Johns and a no-contest with Ronnie Lawrence. He praises Matsumoto as an undefeated prospect with wicked striking, low kicks, strong hips, and good takedown defense. He notes Matsumoto's small size (5'5") may help stuff takedowns. He predicts a decision win where Matsumoto does more damage than Argueta's control time, but also mentions Matsumoto has good submissions from stuffing takedowns.
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